AEMO Energy Update May 2016

MAY 2016

2016 GAS STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES: TIMELY GAS RESERVE DEVELOPMENT KEY TO MEETING LONG-TERM GAS DEMAND P3 UPDATE ON AEMO’S SOLAR AND WIND GENERATION FORECASTING P8 THE PEOPLE BEHIND AEMO P10 Energy Update May 2016

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UPDATE FROM MANAGING DIRECTOR AND CEO MATT ZEMA Our second edition of Energy Update for 2016 looks in detail at AEMO’s 2016 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), which assesses the adequacy of gas infrastructure and resources to meet demand in eastern and south-eastern Australia to 2035.

The report found that development is needed in the short-term to maintain a longer-term security of supply, and timely development of undeveloped gas reserves and resources will be crucial to ensuring there is sufficient gas supply to meet forecast domestic demand to 2035.

You can read more about the GSOO on the following page. We have also included an infographic which succinctly articulates the findings from the report. I hope you find this beneficial in understanding what can be quite complex information.

I’ve previously spoken at length about the speed at which the energy industry is rapidly evolving, with renewables, emerging technologies, battery storage and more active consumer behaviour changing the way the grid operates.

As part of the work looking into these challenges, we released the findings of an AEMO report in April which investigated whether inverters that currently connect small-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation to Australian networks respond simultaneously to frequency disturbances by disconnecting at a set frequency.

You can learn more about the findings on page 7.

This report has stemmed from the work being conducted by The Future Power System Security program. The program seeks to identify opportunities and challenges to power system security and stability that could arise in the longterm (nominally a 10-year outlook), and promote solutions as soon as practicable where appropriate.

AEMO has also recently launched a new solar generation forecasting system, the ‘Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System 2’, to forecast the output of rooftop solar PV cells. This system is now used in AEMO’s pre-dispatch data and Short Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy reporting for the National Electricity Market (NEM). This is an exciting development for AEMO, and will improve our short term forecasting capabilities.

Looking ahead, we are working closely with Western Power in the lead up to the transfer of roles of System Management from Western Power into AEMO from 1 July 2016. I am excited by this next step as it will enable AEMO to have visibility and control of real-time operations across both the NEM and the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM). We will run both systems separately, but at the same time look to identify opportunities for improvement in capability and efficiency.

We plan to release two major reports in June: the National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR) looking at electricity consumption across the NEM now, and what is forecast for the next 20 years, and the WEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (WEM ESOO). The WEM ESOO publishes information relating to the Reserve Capacity Requirement (RCR), ensuring sufficient capacity is available to meet the one-in-ten year peak demand forecast; and limit any energy shortfall to 0.002 per cent of annual energy consumption. We will include feature stories on both reports in our next Energy Update due out in June.

CONTENTS P2

Update from Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Matt Zema

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Timely gas reserve development key to meeting long-term gas demand

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2016 Gas Statement of Opportunities infographic

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AEMO publishes study exploring the response of existing PV inverters to frequency disturbances

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Energy Update May 2016

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Update on solar and wind generation forecasting

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Gavin Dufty of St Vincent De Paul shares stakeholder insights with AEMO

P10 The people behind AEMO P11 In brief

T I M E LY G A S R E S E R V E DEVELOPMENT KEY TO MEETING LO N G - T E R M GA S D E M A N D Market data from AEMO’s 2016 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) shows gas reserve development is required by 2019 to maintain long-term gas supply adequacy in eastern and south-eastern Australia.

AEMO Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Matt Zema said that while there are no gas supply shortfalls forecast until 2029, the 2016 GSOO shows that developed gas reserves in eastern and south-eastern Australia are only sufficient to meet forecast gas demand until 2019.

“This means that currently undeveloped gas reserves, including those reported as contingent resources and possible reserves, will be required to ‘come online’ to meet forecast demand as early as 2019 when developed reserves are forecast to start to deplete,” said Matt.

The need to convert undeveloped gas reserves and resources into working gas fields from 2019 reflects forecasts from AEMO’s 2015 National Gas Forecasting Report (NGFR), which projects total annual gas consumption in eastern and south-eastern Australia to double over the next five years to 2020 as Queensland’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities ramp up production.

The 2016 GSOO uses the demand forecast scenarios from the 2015 NGFR, and production and supply information provided by industry, including wholesale gas contract information, to assess the adequacy of gas infrastructure and resources to meet demand in eastern and south-eastern Australia to 2035.

The GSOO is based on data provided by industry participants up to 10 December 2015.

“The need to convert undeveloped gas reserves and resources into working gas fields from 2019 becomes clearer still when we take export LNG demand out of the picture,” said Matt.

Figure 1, below, shows eastern and south-eastern Australia’s domestic gas demand (excluding export LNG demand) under the medium (considered most likely) scenario.1 The forecast shows that as developed gas reserves decline from 2019, the timely development of undeveloped gas reserves and resources will be key to ensuring there is sufficient gas supply to meet forecast domestic demand to 2035. Contingent resources and possible reserves are forecast to start producing from 2020, while highly uncertain prospective resources are forecast to be required from 2026, to meet domestic demand.

“It’s important we highlight this now, as there are technical and commercial uncertainties associated with developing contingent resources and possible gas reserves,” said Matt. “And reducing this uncertainty requires the timely development of these resources at a

time when low oil prices have led to a significant fall in revenue streams and reductions in capital budgets for gas developers and producers, heightening the risk that some resource development may not be commercially viable.”

The 2016 GSOO reports that gas transmission and processing infrastructure is adequate to meet forecast total domestic gas and export LNG demand until 2029. Shortfalls relating to projected pipeline and facility constraints, and forecast increased demand for gaspowered generation (GPG), are observed in Queensland (Gladstone and Townsville) from 2029, totalling 50 petajoules across the 20-year outlook to 2035.

“The GSOO medium scenario is AEMO’s best estimate of the future based on current information as provided by industry. However the GSOO includes supply and demand input assumptions that are highly uncertain, as changes in economic conditions, policy settings, global oil prices, and weather events continue to increase gas market volatility, and impact investment and development decisions,” said Matt. “To explore this further, we have conducted sensitivity analysis around the medium scenario to test the impact of some of these factors on the supply adequacy assessment.”

Sensitivity modelling shows gas supply shortfalls are projected to increase under drought conditions (due to increased demand for GPG), or if gas producers reduce capital expenditure in response to sustained low oil prices and/or higher production costs. Conversely, a new supply source from the Northern Gas Pipeline is forecast to extend the life of developed gas reserves by up to three years.

“AEMO continues to liaise with gas industry participants and monitor key uncertainties facing the sector, and we will update the GSOO if there are material changes to market conditions,” said Matt.

1 The proposed Northern Gas Pipeline and additional New South Wales supply project, the Narrabri Gas Project, are only in early stages of development, and therefore not included in the 2016 GSOO medium scenario.

Contributions from these projects were considered in sensitivity analysis. Due to AGL’s February 2016 announcement that it is withdrawing from the Gloucester Gas Project, additional supply from this project was not considered in the 2016 GSOO.

Energy Update May 2016

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The 2016 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) uses the demand forecast scenarios from AEMO’s 2015 National Gas Forecasting Report, and production and supply information provided by industry, to report on the adequacy of eastern and south-eastern Australian gas markets to supply maximum demand and annual consumption over a 20-year outlook period to 2035. This infographic focuses on the medium (considered most likely) scenario.

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WHAT IS DRIVING GAS DEMAND OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS? Australia’s gas industry is in a period of rapid transformation and annual gas consumption is increasing.

From 2020–25, gas-powered generation (GPG) consumption is projected to increase to support electricity consumption and the withdrawal of some coal-fired generation across the National Electricity Market.

The start-up of Queensland’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities is forecast to more than double total gas consumption over the next five years (compared to aggregate demand in 2014, before these projects began).

Maximum daily demand is also expected to increase, due to the same drivers.

Demand

PETAJOULES

FORECAST TOTAL GAS CONSUMPTION TO 2035, AS AT DECEMBER 2015.

2250

HISTORICAL

2000

FORECAST

LNG

1750 1500

Gas-powered generation

1250 1000 750

Industrial gas consumption

500 250

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Energy Update May 2016

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500 250 0

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ARE EXISTING GAS RESERVES AND INFRASTRUCTURE ADEQUATE TO MEET FORECAST DOMESTIC AND EXPORT LNG DEMAND OVER THIS PERIOD? As proved and probable reserves are projected to decline from 2019, currently undeveloped gas reserves and contingent and prospective resources will be required to meet forecast demand.

There is technical and commercial uncertainty associated with developing these resources. For example, the current economic environment (including low oil prices) is impacting revenue streams and capital budgets, leading to a heightened risk that some resource development may not be commercially viable.

The domestic market is more reliant on the development of possible reserves and contingent and prospective resources than the LNG export market. The graph below shows the field production profile required to meet only the domestic demand for gas. It shows that contingent resources and possible reserves are forecast to start producing from 2020, while highly uncertain prospective resources are forecast to be required from 2026, to meet domestic demand.

EASTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN AUSTRALIA DOMESTIC GAS MARKETS (EXCLUDING LNG), 2016−35 To maintain gas supply adequacy between 2019 and 2035, development will be required to ensure contingent and prospective resources and undeveloped reserves become commercially recoverable.

PETAJOULES

Proved and probable developed gas reserves

(considered the best estimate of commercially recoverable reserves)

start to deplete from 2019.

800

Shortfalls totalling 50 PJ across the period 2029 and 2035 are forecast in Queensland, as a result of pipeline and processing facility constraints.

Demand

Prospective resources

700

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Contingent resources and possible reserves

500

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Proved and probable reserves – undeveloped

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Energy Update May 2016

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WHAT EXTERNAL FACTORS COULD IMPACT THIS SUPPLY ADEQUACY ASSESSMENT?

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PROJECTIONS

VARIATION IN ASSUMPTIONS

SENSITIVITY

Changes in economic conditions, global oil prices, and weather events are increasing gas market volatility. AEMO conducted sensitivity analysis around the medium scenario to test the possible impacts of these factors and uncertainties on this GSOO.

EL NIÑO DROUGHT EVENT

REDUCED INVESTMENT IN CAPITAL PROJECTS

NORTHERN GAS PIPELINE (NGP) COMES ON LINE

SUPPLY FROM NARRABRI GAS PROJECT

Reduced hydro generation until the end of 2020 leads to increased GPG demand.

LNG production reduced by 15% from 2018–23.

NGP available from July 2018.

Additional supply for New South Wales from Narrabi available from January 2019, with a capacity of 100 TJ per day.

No change to the medium gas supply adequacy assessment.

Total forecast domestic shortfalls increase from 50 PJ to 296 PJ, with shortfalls observed from 2018.

Two-year delay, to 2023, in bringing non-LNG fields online.

13 PJ of shortfalls also forecast for LNG producers between 2018 and 2020.

Assumed capacity of 200 terajoules (TJ) per day.

Supply from NGP helps meet export LNG demand, reducing Queensland’s need for gas imports from southern states.

Undeveloped reserves and resources are required to be commercialised up to three years later than in the medium scenario.

There is no change to the shortfalls which are driven by infrastructure constraints.

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Energy Update May 2016

New South Wales gas supply can meet up to 15% of local demand by 2035, reducing reliance on gas imports from other states.

There is no change to the shortfalls which are driven by infrastructure constraints.

AEMO PUBLISHES STUDY EXPLORING THE RESPONSE OF EXISTING PV INVERTERS TO FREQUENCY DISTURBANCES

In April, AEMO published the findings of a study conducted under the Future Power System Security Program, which investigated whether inverters that currently connect small-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation to Australian networks may respond simultaneously to frequency disturbances by disconnecting at a set frequency.

The report follows growing international attention on the performance of inverters, given the rapid uptake of small-scale PV technology, and concerns about the appropriateness of PV inverter performance settings in power systems where there is a high penetration of these installations.

For example, in Germany in 2006, a power system event occurred at 2200 hrs causing the frequency to exceed 50.2 hertz (Hz).

Subsequent analysis showed that if the event had occurred during a period of high solar generation (i.e. during the daytime), a simultaneous shutdown of all of Germany’s PV systems could have occurred, causing further grid disruption.

This compromise to power system security prompted the German government to mandate new frequency settings for both new and existing PV installations.

Over 315,000 PV inverters connecting PV systems larger than 10 kW were retrofitted, at a cost of approximately 175 million ($250 million AUD).

While the simultaneous tripping of inverters appears unlikely under normal operating conditions, the study has identified that under rare events the disconnection of PV inverters at extreme frequencies may reduce the effectiveness of the automatic under-frequency load shedding (AUFLS) scheme in South Australia. A review of this AUFLS scheme is a priority focus for AEMO. The study also highlights the potential impact that large volumes of small, distributed energy resources can have on the power system, and therefore the need for AEMO to have access to information about these resources and how they perform.

The report is available to download from the Future Power System Security Program page AEMO website. For more information, contact Rob Jackson.

The data collected by the AEMO study indicates a low probability of inverters in Australia tripping in unison due to frequency disturbances within the required frequency operating ranges.

Analysis of this data shows there is a spread in the frequency settings and timing of when inverters will trip.

Energy Update May 2016

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U P D AT E O N A E M O ’ S S O L A R A N D W I N D E N E R G Y G E N E R AT I O N FORECASTING SYSTEMS Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System 2 (ASEFS2)

Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS)

AEMO’s pioneering rooftop solar generation forecasting system, the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System 2 (ASEFS2), is up and running with the new system going live on 30 March 2016. The system forecasts the output of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) cells and is used in AEMO’s pre-dispatch data and Short Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (STPASA) reporting for the National Electricity Market.

AEMO previously identified an issue with how the Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) detects that a semi-scheduled wind farm is being constrained off (down-regulated) in order to apply an unconstrained forecast based on available wind. A scheduling error report on this issue was published on the AEMO website in February 2016, and AEMO has implemented a number of measures to address the scheduling errors as outlined below.

AEMO Group Manager Forecasting Craig Price said the new rooftop solar generation forecasting system will improve the accuracy of AEMO’s short-term demand forecasts, and assist generators, retailers, and market participants to better manage their operations.

“By improving the accuracy of our short-term demand forecast, we’re able to provide industry with greater insight as to how rooftop solar PV changes the demand supplied by the main power grid,” said Craig.

Forecasts and estimated actuals from the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System 2 will be made available to market participants as part of the mid-year Electricity Markets Management System data release, currently scheduled for 27 May 2016.

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Energy Update May 2016

Scheduling Error 1: Incorrect identification of semi-dispatch intervals in AWEFS • AEMO implemented an interim solution in February 2016 which adjusted the margins used to detect downregulation, reducing the frequency of the problem.

• A permanent solution was implemented on 7 April 2016, directly feeding the semi-dispatch cap into the AWEFS system. A similar change was also made to the Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System 1 (ASEFS1) software. This solution completely addressed the identified scheduling error.

Scheduling Error 2: Rejection of unconstrained intermittent generation forecasts exceeding maximum capacity for Oaklands Hill • AEMO implemented a permanent solution on 24 March 2016 to fix the error that occurred when dispatch forecasts were incorrectly discarded after exceeding maximum capacity.

In addition, AEMO has started a consultation process on the Energy Conversion Model (ECM) for SemiScheduled Wind and Solar Farms to improve how semi-scheduled generators manage local limitations on generation in AWEFS and ASEFS1 in the dispatch timeframe.

For more information on AEMO’s solar and wind energy generation forecasting systems, contact AEMO Group Manager Forecasting Craig Price.

G AV I N D U F T Y O F S T V I N C E N T D E PA U L SHARES HIS S TA K E H O L D E R INSIGHTS WITH AEMO AEMO was honoured to host well-known consumer advocate and manager of St Vincent de Paul Victoria’s policy and research unit, Gavin Dufty, in late February.

Gavin provided AEMO employees with a special presentation, offering unique insights from both a consumer and a consumer advocate perspective.

He shed light on how consultation processes shape engagement and ultimately outcomes for consumers and participants, and discussed how trust and listening are key determinants in great stakeholder engagement practices.

“Engaging with our stakeholders is a vital aspect to all that we do at AEMO. This was a great opportunity for AEMO employees to hear directly from our stakeholders who operate across the energy industry. We’d like to say a big thank you to Gavin for sharing his insights with us,” said Sandra McLaren, Group Manager, Stakeholder Relations.

This event is part of a suite of AEMO events featuring stakeholders from across the energy industry.

AEMO is dedicated to having a stakeholder-focused approach as part of our corporate strategy, our 2015-17 strategic initiatives, and our vision to provide energy security for all Australians.

For more information contact Group Manager, Stakeholder Relations Sandra McLaren.

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THE PEOPLE BEHIND AEMO‌ INTRODUCING MARK K AT S I K A N DA R A K I S , T E A M LEADER - MARKET SERVICES A N D O P E R AT I O N S In this column we take you behind the scenes at AEMO, introducing you to some of our employees.

In this edition we talk to Mark Katsikandarakis, Team Leader - Market Services and Operations, who joined AEMO when responsibility for wholesale market operations in Western Australia transferred in November 2015.

Energy Update (EU): Thank you for sharing your story with us, Mark. Can you tell us a bit about your background?

Mark Katsikandarakis (MK): I have degrees in electrical engineering and applied mathematics from the University of Western Australia. I started my career as a project engineer working on large oil and gas projects across Australia. In 2014 I joined the Independent Market Operator (IMO) as a Market Analyst in the Market Operations team, and have been the Team Leader for almost a year now.

I joined AEMO when responsibility for wholesale market operations in Western Australia transferred in November 2015.

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Energy Update May 2016

EU: What was it about the energy sector that attracted you?

MK: I have a passion for energy and an interest in the issues impacting the industry. Working for a market operator affords the opportunity to build relationships with key stakeholders and to influence the ongoing development and enhancement of the sector. At the end of the day, it is about making a difference through positive contributions to an essential and dynamic industry.

EU: Can you explain a bit about your role at AEMO? MK: I lead the Market Operations team in Western Australia. We are the main contact point for market participants in Western Australia and are responsible for the daily operation of the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) and the Gas Bulletin Board (GBB) in WA. This includes operating the energy market mechanisms, performing all settlement and prudential management functions, facilitating the full range of registration processes, and providing 24/7 support to our market participants and external stakeholders.

What really drew me to AEMO was the national focus and the fact that work being done had the potential to have a broad and positive impact.

My role is very diverse and I am supported by a highly capable team of analysts with a wide range of backgrounds including energy, engineering, IT and commerce.

Being able to work with such a high performing and diverse team is very rewarding.

EU: Can you tell me a bit more about what your team is currently involved with and why this is an important function at AEMO? MK: Since joining AEMO, our focus has been on integrating the WA functions into the broader organisation. A key commitment through integration is ensuring we continue to run the WEM and GBB (WA) efficiently and this is where my team has been predominantly focussed.

We are working with our colleagues across AEMO and are leveraging each other’s expertise to deliver the best possible services to our participants and stakeholders.

EU: Finally, what do you like most about working at AEMO? MK: For me the most exciting thing about working at AEMO is the opportunity to be part of an organisation with wide reaching influence that makes a tangible difference to the lives of all Australians.

IN BRIEF A E M O E N G I N E E R W I N S AWA R D AT A U S T R A L I A N P O W E R I N S T I T U T E SUMMER PROGRAM Congratulations to AEMO engineer Trevor Lim, who won an award at the Australian Power Institutes’ summer school syndicate challenge in March 2016.

AEMO engineers Trevor Lim and Kiet Lee joined the Australian Power Institute summer program to participate in lectures and discussions with over 40 industry experts and specialists.

The program, which is designed for engineers with four to 15 years industry experience, allowed participants from all over the nation to further develop their understanding of engineering within the energy industry.

Running over the course of two weeks, delegates were separated into eight teams and were tasked with solving a range of issues currently facing the Australian energy industry. Trevor’s team delivered an engaging presentation on National Electricity Market futures trading, which was well received by the industry judges and course participants alike.

The Australian Power Institute (API) is a not for profit national organisation established by the electricity power industry to boost the quality and numbers of power engineering graduates with the skills and motivation for a career in the energy industry.​

AEMO TRAINING Course

Location

Date

Wholesale Electricity Market Introduction

Perth

11 May 2016

Overview of the National Electricity Market (NEM)

Brisbane

12 May 2016

Energy markets: STEM, Balancing, LFAS

Perth

18 May 2016

Reserve Capacity Mechanism

Perth

18 May 2016

Overview of the National Electricity Market (NEM)

Hobart

2 June 2016

Wholesale Electricity Market Introduction

Perth

8 June 2016

Energy markets: STEM, Balancing, LFAS

Perth

15 June 2016

Reserve Capacity Mechanism

Perth

15 June 2016

Overview of the National Electricity Market (NEM)

Sydney

23 June 2016

For more details on all courses, and on how to register, visit AEMO’s Learning Centre or call the Information and Support Hub on 1300 236 600.

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Energy Update May 2016

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