Edmonton (Alta.) - 1962 - Proceedings of planning for Edmonton, 1980_a conference on Edmonton's...

SD LIBRARY

3398

1020/2620/1962

PLANNING FOR EDMONTON 1980, EDMONTON.

PROCEEDINGS OF

PLANNING FOR EDMONTON 1980

A CONFERENCE ON

EDMONTON'S PLANNING FORECAST OF GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT TO 1980 AND

TRANSPORTATION IMPLICATIONS OF THIS GROWTH

HELD NOVEMBER 27 and 28, 1962 IN EDMONTON, ALBERTA

[ONLINE PREVIEW VERSION]

4400.9a .E3 1962

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“Planning for Edmonton” o F. Marlyn (Director, Edmonton District Planning Commission) o 13 pages “Some forecasts of land use, population and employment” o E.T. Clegg (Senior Planner, City of Edmonton Planning Department) o 13 pages “The old city and the new metropolis”* o H. Blumenfield (Planning Consultant, Toronto) o 13 pages “The growth and development of the San Francisco Bay Area”* o John F. Flaherty (Senior Engineer, Bechtel Corporation) o 12 pages “Development of a model for forecasting travel mode choice in urban areas”* o D.H. Hill (Research Analyst, Traffic Research Corporation) o 21 pages “Rapid transit for the San Francisco Bay Area”* o Darrel W. Halligan (Senior Engineer, Bechtel Corporation) o 18 pages “Rapid transit train control”* o F. Pascoe (Manager, Union Switch and Signal Corporation) o 8 pages “High performance rapid transit equipment”* o Raymond F. Corley (Specialist, Canadian General Electric Company Limited) o 16, 6 pages “The Edmonton metropolitan transportation study: the transit system and proposals” o D.L. MacDonald (Superintendent, Edmonton Transit System) o 8 pages “The Westinghouse transit expressway: a new concept in rapid transit for metropolitan areas”* o [Author Unknown] o 13 pages

*Not included in the online preview version posted by the Edmonton Tower Resource Centre due to copyright concerns. Contact library@edmonton.ca for more details.

PLANNING FOR EDMONTON 1980 BY MR. F. MARLYN, DIRECTOR THE EDMONTON DISTRICT PLANNING COMMISSION

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The City of Edmonton

PLANNING DEPARTMENT Before discussing some of the studies and forecasts of the Edmonton District Planning Commission, it may be useful to consider first why anyone would undertake so hazardous a task in something as complex as a metropolitan area and, secondly, what reliance can we place on such conclusions?

As to the first question - why are forecasts necessary? There are a number of decisions which must be made by municipalities which are not easily reversible and which depend on factors of subsequent use, such things as major utilities, major road rights of way, land use on the perimeter of the built up area and zoning. Because a forecast is implicit in these decisions, whether it is stated or not, it is preferable to base such decisions on the best information available, considering clearly discernible trends.

A simple example may be the question of school sites; in developing an area of land, say of 200 acres, it is necessary to make an assumption on the school land needed some time before the area is built up. Given the number of dwellings and the average size of family, one obtains a total population. One could assume that 25% of the population will be school children and 60% of the school children will be elementary. This may prove a reasonable enough forecast to detertriine land requirements. Although forecasts for cities or regions may be far more complex than this example, they have in common that for certain decisions they are necessary and that they are based on assumptions which have verying degrees of reliability. Any unreliability may be due to insufficient info mation insufficient knowledge of the processes of City growth or new and unpredictable factors. We can reduce error due to

insufficient infoliation or insufficient knowledge of processes of growth by investing in research; new or unpredictable factors can only be accommodated by the flexibility of a plan or a facility.

To consider some of these studies and forecasts: the Commission's role as a planning agency is to prepare a District Plan within which the individual municipalities may prepare their detailed plans with some assurance that the parts will fit together. Section 14 of The Town and Rural Planning Act indicates that the Commission may study the resources and development of the District Planning Area with a view to preparing such a plan. A number of necessary studies have been undertaken and completed, such as: The Economic Base Study, Urban Population Projections 1955-1980, Edmonton District Water Supply, Land Use Requirements, Soil Survey, Rural Community Structure, District Town Studies, Edmonton District Transportation Survey now underway.

I would like briefly to consider three of these studies: The Economic Base and Population Projections, The Water Supply Study, Edmonton District Transportation Survey.

The first study I wish to discuss is the Economic Base Study and Population Projections. This was approximately an 18-month study undertaken by an economist and urban geographer added to staff for the purpose.

The study is available to all who may wish to read it, so I will not go into all the details of method but give the general summary and conclusions.

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The study outlines that, in a rapidly developing community such as Edmonton, new employment opportunities are being provided continuously and, therefore, it is unlikely that past trends of population growth and especially migration rates will merely be projected. Therefore, a method which studies the basic cause of growth rather than depending on the projection of past results is needed in order to achieve more realistic projections.

One method, considering basic causes of growth, is an economic base survey which sets out to study those activities of an urban community which export goods and services to points outside the economic confines of the community or which market their goods and services to persons who come from outside the community's economic boundaries.

It is a survey involving the identification, measurement and study of the basic activities of a community for the purposes of predicting employment. By application of base ratios, employment can then be related to present and future population. Such a method is of particular validity in Edmonton which manifestly owes its growth as a major urban centre to the export of its goods and services. A population forecast based on employment potential, which is a vital factor in the growth of a city, is a means of giving as reliable a picture of the future as is possible at present.

A by-product of such a method is to give insight into may economic factors. Interrelationships of resources and markets between the metropolitan areas and the rural areas are revealed, the future industrial land requirements for some of the important industries can be more easily evaluated, problems concerning transportation of goods and factory locations can be assessed. The information thus gained can help in formulating development plans.

An economic base survey can be carried out in several ways; the method we employed was as follows: First, a series of calculations based on employment figures were undertaken in order to establish the basic economic

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activities for Edmonton, that is, those activities which contribute to the export activities of the community serving non-local markets and, therefore, bringing income into the community; the total employment in these basis industries was compared with the total population to establish the base employment ratio for Edmonton. This group of basic industries was analyzed in some detail in order to project their future employment. Finally, the base employment ratio was applied to future employment in order to estimate future population.

The method employed to identify the economic base was a modification of one suggested in a paper by Mattila & Thompson.

The method is based on measuring the absolure number of surplus workers by calculating the difference between the actual local employment in each industry with the locality's pro rata share of national employment in the same industry.

Although the calculations showed surplus workers in service industries, trade, construction, transportation, finance, etc., due to the lack of information available for some of the other categories the study concentrated on the manufacturing basic industries. (See page 12 for surplus workers.)

On the basis of 1955 data, 17 manufacturing basis industries were identified, including Meat Packing and Slaughtering, Aircraft, Sash and Door, Petrochemicals, Bread and Bakery, Concrete, Men's Clothing, etc.

The analysis of these industries was based mainly on interviewing the fi us in the industry listed above. A questionnaire was prepared covering material relating to employment, markets, sources of raw material, taxes, estimates of future production and employment. Any relevant material concerning the development of the industry on a national scale was also considered in making the final estimate of surplus workers; past trends of employment and value of production were examined, both for the City, the Province and the nation.

On completion of the analysis, estimates of future employment and surplus workers in each industry were made. By calculating manufacturing surplus workers for 1957, 1961, 1971, 1976, total population forecasts were made, using certain established ratios.

The result of these rather involved calculations was a forecast of some 580,000 urban population by 1976. With the commencement of the traffic study, this projection has been extended to 1980 and a figure of some 660,000 results.

Since calculations for the traffic study and land use estimates for the general plan for the City and the metropolitan area are using this figure, we can briefly examine some subsequent checks.

Two private consultants have examined the projection, the Leigh Fisher Report on the Municipal Airport and Watts Marketing Research Ltd. on the Civic Centre Study have examined and accepted the projection as reasonable.

In the case of the Civic Centre Study, it is one of the criteria for establishing office space demand.

In 1961, a projection of the population of the Province to 1985 was prepared by the Alberta Bureau. of Statistics showing natural increase.

This was examined with a view to applying it as an alternate method and check on the Edmonton projection.

Since, from 1951 to 1960, the Edmonton area has absorbed annually an average of 42% of the Provincial population increase, it was assumed that a conservative estimate would be that this would continue. This assumption applied to the Provincial projection would result in a population figure for this area by 1980 of 615,000 people. Checking the economic base population estimate in terms of actual population increase between 1955 and 1962: the estimated population was some 2000 persons higher than the actual with an increase slightly larger than 100,000 in the seven years.

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Before leaving this matter of the urban population estimates, I would like to point out that this is not tied to a municipal boundary but to the general economy of the area. For example, the movement of the International Airport to Leduc will increase the urban population of Leduc, which means that a portion of the 660,000 people will be living 20 miles from the City rather than in the City. The population projection establishes the approximate quantity but not the pattern of growth, which is dependent on a wide range of factors.

As I have stated, the population projection refers to an urban population for the area. The pattern of development is dependent on many factors.

A second commission study which is of some relevance to the pattern of growth of the area and location of development is the Edmonton District Water Supply. This study was completed in 1960; its importance arises from the fact that the North Saskatchewan River is the only reliable source of supply for any large scale urban development. The development in the District Towns of the various locational advantages which they possess is dependent on the construction of a highly centralized water system and with reasonable water rates. This applies to such areas as St. Albert for institutional and residential development, Fort Saskatchewan for primary industry, and the Town of Leduc for Airport employment and related industries.

The study examined various facets of the water supply, including an examination of the maximum and minimum flows in the North Saskatchewan River, the source of supply, and estimated demands for treated water by 1976.

It was possible to derive a fairly constant factor for this projection. In 1946, with a metropolitan population of some 120,000 people, the total water supplied was some 3280 million gallons or a per capita daily use of 75 gallons. In 1959, with a metropolitan population of 297,000, the total water supplied was some 8092 million gallons or a per capita daily use of 75 gallons.

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Although this per capita figure of 75 gallons per day covers domestic, commercial and industrial water use, it has varied surprisingly little despite the wide variety of development in the 13 years 1946 to 1959 and would appear a reliable enough basis for a first assumption on water needs to 1980. Allowing fora margin of error and using 80 gallons per capita per day for a metropolitan urban population of 66o,000, the estimated annual water consumption would be some 19,272 million gallons annually.

Although many other aspects of the water supply were considered, of most relevance were factors of distribution and cost. On distribution, certain of the District Towns require a very large initial investment in water pipe line if they are to handle any significant amount of urban expansion.

Secondly, the variation in water costs through the District - ranging from

$4.6o to $9.50 for 5000 gallons, although not too critical for residential location, is of importance for the location of industries that require considerable water.

I do not think it is too relevant to our discussions today to deal in detail with the complexities of the District Water Supply. I have cited the study as an example of one of the factors studied and considered in formulating a District Plan which examines the resources, the possibilities and pattern of growth. Certainly if decentralization is advocated to relieve some of the costs and pressuresof concentration within the central City, which it is than water supply becomes one of the problems to be resolved, not only in the interests of the town concerned, but in the interests of the area as a whole. I should add that in such cases as the Towns of St. Albert and Leduc, the problem has been to a large extent resolved.

The third study of the Commission which I wish to deal with briefly is the Metropolitan Edmonton Transportation Survey. This is certaihly the most involved, the most comprehensive study undertaken, since all previous work on population, employment, land use and patterns of growth are relevant to it and

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affected by it.

The organization and scope of the study is of interest in two respects; one, it deals with the functional area of the problem rather than a local administrative boundary. It is obvious from examining the journey to work figures that this matter cannot be studied separately by the City or adjoining towns. Some 80% of the work force in. Jasper Place work in the City. Some 60% to 70% of the industrial labor force in the County of Strathcona live in the City or Jasper Place, and similar movements occur from St. Albert and Sherwood Park. 80% of the Airport workers live in the City of Edmonton.

Dealing with relationships, it is equally obvious that a highway system does not end at a city but merges into a city system.

For these reasons, the study has been undertaken by the Commission, with the participation of and contributions from the Provincial Government, the Departments of Highways and Municipal Affairs, the City of Edmonton, the rural municipalities of Sturgeon, Stony Plain, Strathcona, Leduc, and the Towns of Jasper Place , St. Albert, Leduc, Fort Saskatchewan, Devon and Stony Plain.

Just as no one municipality in a highly interrelated area can plan for its traffic in isolation, it is also not reasonable to consider land use, roads, parking or transit in isolation. For this reason, the study is considering roads, parking and transit as components of a single transportation system, and land use as a factor which both generates the traffic but it also affected by the nature of the transportation system.

Although this approach may appear unnecessarily complex, I think anything less ambitious would be too fragmentary to justify either the cost or the effort.

Although over the past 18 months various aspects of the study have been carried out by the local and outside consultants, by the City Engineering - 8 -

and Planning Department and by the Edmonton Transit personnel, District Planning Commission staff and Highways Department, the study has proceeded remarkably smoothly; although the time scheduling for completion is very tight.

Since this seminar is meeting to discuss the future vision of our City and our area 20 years from now, the traffic study is of direct relevance since, in order to estimate future traffic needs, one must construct such a future model of the City and the District, in terms of where people will live and work and shop and in what numbers and what in these circumstances will be the possible or the most efficient or the most economical methods of transportation.

An examination of our estimates for 1980 of population, employment, land use and the first results of the traffic volumes resulting from this model may be of interest.

The urban population of the District by 1980 is estimated at

66o,000, of which 505,000 will be living within present City boundaries and 155,000 will be living in surrounding District Towns, including Jasper Place, this compared with 1961 figures of 273,000 in City and 53,000 outside. The total employed labor force is estimated at 38% of the population and will be some 250,000. The 38% is an Alberta Bureau of Statistics estimate. Some 220,000 of this will be employed within present City limits and 30,000 beyond City limits. This compares with the 1961 totals of 116,000 employed within City limits and 9,000 beyond City limits.

Considering the Central Area, which is the most critical from a traffic concentration point of view: the employment in this area in 1961 was some 42,000 or 33 1/3% of the employed labor force. It is estimated that this employment will increase to some 87,000. Without examining the various categories of employment considered in the traffic study, it may be of interest to examine Government and office employment. In 1961, the Central Area contained 76% of all office employment and approximately 90% of all Government office employment;

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by 1980it is estimated that 79% of all office employment and 95% of all Government office employment will be in the Central Area. Although Mr. Clegg may deal with this in greater detail, the assumptions on office employment are closely related to the studies for the Civic Centre. The greater concentration of Government Office employment is related to the municipal level of government in which the process of annexation is leading to greater centralization.

With regard to employment, the overall control figures have been based on work done on the Economic Base Study, by Alberta Bureau of Statistics estimates, by consideration of general projections, such as the Gordon Commission Report and detailed studies of particular categories of employment.

These broad initial assumptions are that from 1961 to 1980: Of the total employed labor force - manufacturing employment will increase from 16.7% to 19%; construction employment will decline from 11.8% to 9%; trade employment will increase from 21.4% to 23%; service employment will increase from 31% to 32%.

Moving from quantities and numbers to land use and location, the broad basis for the pattern of development is the Metropolitan Part of the Preliminary District Plan, together with the more detailed zoning and policies of the member municipalities.

The Metropolitan Part of the District Plan represents the pattern of development, jointly agreed to by the member municipalities, it has evolved over the past six years, considering land needs, general trends, utility and service capacities, agreements on areas for annexation, directions of growth for heavy industry and residential and so on.

There are, moreover, a number of areas of substantial importance where long-term plans are fairly well advanced and policies fairly clear.

The Civic Centre is one such area; another is the University, which has made - 10 -

estimates for 20-year growth and indicated areas for expansion; a third is the Municipal Airport, together with the assurance of the long term location of the International Airport. The fairly definite decisions which have been made in these areas facilitate estimates of future pattern of development. On the other hand, areas of transition around the central area, and possible future redevelopment areas present a number of difficulties.

The first results of converting this mass of data on population, employment and land use into estimated traffic volumes by 1980 is now available.

The volumes and desire lines are more easily indicated on a map but as an indication the increases of person trips per day predicted for several routes are as follows; in the vicinity of the 105 Street Bridge an increase of person trips per day from 56,000 in 1961 to 139,000 in 1980; in the north-west along the St. Albert Trail an increase of from 19,000 to 42,000; in the south-west when newly annexed lands are developed an increase of from 800 person trips a day in 1961 to 44,000 person trips per day in 1980.

The study is now at the stage of allocating these volumes to existing road capacities and existing modes of transportation and will then move on to exploring various and alternate possible solutions in terms of cost, convenience, efficiency, and impact on land use.

I have in this talk examined a few of the studies which the Commission and the municipalities feel are of value in making decisions in an area which is growing at the rate of 100,000 people every 7 years.

Before concluding, there are two points I would wish to emphasize: one deals with a regional approach for a certain range of decision and the other the role of these surveys and studies in the process of formulating public policy.

It is, I think, apparent from the studies I have mentioned that one cannot in this area study the economic base on a municipal level, or examine

the origin and destination of traffic, or formulate a water policy. If one III/

were to examine District Recreation, on which there will be enormously

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increasing demands, it is even more difficult to confine this to urban and rural or Town and City. Due to the nature of the metropolitan area, there are these levels of study and policy which require an inter-municipal approach.

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It is fortunate that the municipalities in this area have for many years encouraged this approach, that rather than viewing the District Commission as an opposing force, they have accepted it as an extension of the municipal

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valuable.

The second point which is important to emphasize is that these surveys and studies can identify the quantity and the nature of problems, the various solutions, and the implications and costs of alternatives. Although they may be an essential step in formulating policy, they do not make decisions. There are a wide range of social, aesthetic and other factors which do not lend themselves to this type of analysis, but which may be as important or more important in making a decision or considering alternatives. This involves the values of a society and is expressed through the people by their representatives.

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The choice between various transportation solutions may be one of cost or impact on land use, but the decision to adopt the most convenient May involve considerations as to whether this is at the expense of other areas of social expenditure or the use of the River Valley for roads involves extremely valuable intangibles In this context, the kind of public meetings which are being held in Edmonton are of great importance. The meeting on the architecture of the Civic Centre, the recent public meeting on the River Valley, this present meeting on studies and transportation, have all been widely attended and great public interest shown. We have also been fortunate in the very high calibre of speakers from other areas who have attended, and although each area must -12-

• work out its own indigenous solutions, we can certainly benefit from this PI

wider experience.

It is this combination of careful study, imaginative solutions,

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inter-municipal cooperation, public concern and public awareness that will, I think, prove Edmonton to be, in the years ahead, not only a large City but a great City.

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SOME FORECASTS OF LAND USE, POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT BY E. T. CLEGG, SENIOR PLANNER - RESEARCH THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT

1. The Relationship and Importance of City Planning to Urban Transportation Planning.

I would like to begin my talk today with a few remarks which may help to bridge the gap that sometimes exists between City Planning and Urban transportation planning. It is only too often that when I explain to people that I have been working on Edmonton's transportation study, I am immediately questioned as to how many bridges there are going to be. I explain that my job is not to locate bridges but this seems to go through one ear and out the other - and still they ask -- how many bridges? Even though I think bridges are important, I do feel that the contribution of City Planning to transportation planning is not too well understood.

There are five basic steps in transportation planning -- please notice the diagram -- they are Inventories; Future Development (which includes population; Economics and Land Use studies); Travel Demand; Traffic Plan and Evaluation.

STEP 1. Traffic Inventories The traffic study often begins with inventories that measure volumes of vehicles and persons using the road, and the capacity of the present transportation system to serve passengers and vehicles. This does not answer the question as to how many people would use new or improved facilities in the future. An origin destination survey, however, would help to answer this but would not tell us what volumes to expect in the future. A land use plan, however, will tell us what volumes to expect. People travel to work, to shop, to play. This is a measurable relationship.

STEP II. Future Development (i) Population

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generation of traffic therefrom. (ii) Economics

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Economic and employment forecasts can tell us what employment to expect in non-residential areas and the traffic generation therefrom. (iii) Land Use Study Land Use is the key to understanding trip-making because it is

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the best indication of the kind of activities which people undertake on various 1/111

pieces of land. These activities demand that travel be undertaken by foot or by vehicle. Present land use explains present travel patterns. Since land use is a relatively stable measure, future patterns based on future land use are reasonably accurate. Where we have vacant land we have few trips. Where we have intensive development we have many trips. People travel between places

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of living, working, schooling, and shopping. In this way, future land use enables us to estimate travel volumes, origins, and destinations for future

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planned for.

Social surveys of people help us to calculate future volumes and

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patterns of

traffic movement as well. Trips made by people are in response

to the needs of living. The number of trips increase for persons with high IIII/1

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incomes, who often live in low density residential areas. Travel uses up time -- which is expensive - thus one's travel is limited by one's budget.

STEP III. Travel Demand The future land use development plan is then translated into travel.

The volumes of trips from the various uses are calculated. The travel patterns anticipated from the inventory then give us an anticipated trip distribution.

This travel must be split by mode. By traffic assignment volumes of trips

between various origins and destinations for the future are made to point out areas where demand will be most severe.

STEP IV. Traffic Plan When travel demands are known it then remains to design a transportation system to accommodate the demand. However, objectives and standards must be considered. Objectives such as keeping costs down, relating roads to land use, and eliminating problems, are some examples. Thus there are many limitations on the road design pattern.

Facilities over which the calculated travel takes place may require improvement. The distribution of facilities and their capacity and quality are examined. If facilities are too small where intensive development is planned, then an increase in capacity is indicated. All the facilities must be adjusted to accommodate the projected land uses and the travel demands of the public.

As travel habits and land uses change, adjustment in the future will be required. The objective is one of providing facilities in the proper amounts and locations in order to supply land developments with adequate transportation services. This objective can best be achieved by increasing development where transportation capacity is available to accommodate generated traffic, or conversely to discourage development where capacity has been already reached or surpassed.

The City planner can, at this point, knowing the magnitude and importance of travel patterns, design neighbour-hoods to reduce travel distances between shopping centre, industrial areas, churches and schools.

STEP V. Evaluation A number of planned transportation systems which seem best are then located to see if they will carry the load which future land uses will generate. Each system is evaluated. Objectives and standards may be altered.

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From these the most feasible plan is selected.

This is the relationship, then, between City Planning and transportation planning.

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The Preliminary General Plan The City Planning Department is now drafting a Preliminary General

Plan pursuant to the terms of the Town and Rural Planning Act. This Plan is being prepared in separate units or Chapters as follows: 1.

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9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

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Edmonton History, Geography, Region and District Plan Growth and Population Water, Sewer, Waste, and other Utilities Public, Quasi-Public Uses - schools, hospitals, etc.

Roads, Railways, Rapid Transit, Parking, Air Transport, and other systems and considerations Parks and Recreation Commercial Development, including the Central Business District Industrial Development and Economics Residential Development General Land Use Plans and Implementation Urban Renewal and Redevelopment Capital Budgeting and Finance City Expansion and Administration Summary Statements and Plans

Work on these Chapters is proceeding slowly but surely. Some of the work completed on the Population and Growth Chapter is of particular interest for this discussion, and will therefore be dealt with briefly.

(1) Population Analysis Our research to date indicates some population trends that should be noted. The City has larger populations in the 20-40 and 25-34 year age groups than does any other City in Canada or Alberta. This is due to immigration which occurs characteristically between the ages of 20 and 34 years.

There is a significant increase in the older age groups which has some planning significance. The low birth rate of the 1930s and early 1940's does not appear to be significant because of the effect of immigration. Edmonton's population has a tendency to marry at an increasingly early age. Birth rates

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have dropped since 1956. (Let us hope this is not a long range trend.)

Family size is increasing. In recent years migration has caused the largest cT mge in Edmonton's population, but since 1958 natural increase has been more important. There is a basic correlation between population, migration and employment. Thus industrial growth is the stimulus to population increase.

The proportion of non-Canadians in Edmonton exceeds that for Alberta and Canada.

Immigration to Edmonton exceeds immigration to Alberta. The early importance of rural immigration and later urban immigration is illustrated here. People in Edmonton are largely of British origin. However, there is a striking decrease in the number of people of British origin in the last 20 years - from 70% to 45%. In order of size the German, Ukrainian, French, Scandinavian, Dutch and Polish populations are the most important ones. The social implications to planning are therefore evident.

(2) Population Forecasts Population projections are the extensions of a plausible pattern of growth from the past into the future. They are no more than illustrated calculations based on certain general assumptions and consequently are no better than their bases. In my talk today I am not giving you predictions of future population, but rather a statement of what the size and sex and age of population would be at a specified future time if birth rates, death rates and immigration were to follow certain specified trends. This point applies to all the projections contained in this talk, and cannot be overemphasized.

Projections of total population and rates of growth by arithmetic or graphic means are indeed crude. Population forecasts by the cohort survival method can be quite useful and were therefore undertaken. The value of the forecast varies inversely with the length of projection period. This method simply transfers five year age groups by sex from the base census date into the next age group five years later. Adjustments are made for deaths, number

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of women of child-bearing age, marriages, births, infant mortality and so on.

The result is natural increase.

It is important to consider migration separately. There is not necessarily any relationship between past and future migration. Annual totals for Edmonton have varied from 1,500 to 10,000 during the past five years.

Our population projections for metropolitan Edmonton vary from 400,000 to 470,000 by 1981. By using rates of natural increase, results vary from 550,000 to 580,000. If we assume a migration rate of 1.1% and allow for natural increase on the 580,000 figure, we will get a population of 720,000 by 1981. If 3,360 migrants (as used by Edmonton District Planning Commission) were used instead, we would get 670,000. These projections support the E.D.P.C. projection figure of 660,000.

In summary, if the people that are in Edmonton today remain, then by natural increase alone we would likely have over 400,000 people by 1981.

By adding a modest migration rate we would expect over 700,000. What migration rate to allow for is not clear at this time, but continued research might provide a slightly more reliable guide and is therefore continuing.

3. The Preliminary Preliminary General Plan The City of Edmonton was asked to prepare some population, employment, and land use forecasts for the Metropolitan Traffic Study. These were to be prepared in co-operation with the Edmonton District Planning Commission.

It was soon evident that the preparation of these forecasts would almost require the preparation of a Preliminary General Plan. However, the time required for this was not available and so an even more preliminary, preliminary general plan was drafted. This was the first time in recent years that work from a number of City Departments was co-ordinated in a comprehensive way - in the same kind of way, in fact, that it would be done for a general plan. For this reason its results have been most interesting and educational.

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I. Land Use Areas of the City were first delineated on the basis of age; into areas not built up; post-war housing areas and so on. Areas not built up were projected on the basis of certain accepted design standards for the various land uses; parks, schools, shops, and roads. The historic changes of each age group were studied over time and applied to the respective age groups over the 20 year forecast period, assuming history in a modified way might well repeat itself. Where it was found that the age of the house would be well past its normal life expectancy by 1981, then such housing areas were studied to determine reasonable areas for conservation, rehabilitation and clearance and the period one might expect such changes to occur. A considerable volume of data was also analyzed to help provide logical answers. Where development plans were available, such as for the Civic Centre or the Airport - then these were simply incorporated into the future land use plan.

II. Population The E.D.P.C. Forecast figure of 660,000 persons by 1981 was accepted.

Of this total 508,000 persons were expected to live in Edmonton and the balance would live in the surrounding satellite communities. Population was distributed over the new areas on the basis of 3.74 persons per single family dwelling and 2.5 per multiple family unit.

Some of the more significant results of the land use and population forecast are worth noting. The resulting land use plan showed a high density of population was necessary in the central core area of the City by 1981.

About 110,000 people were distributed over 16 of the central traffic zones wherever suitable multiple family development sites appeared a reasonable possibility within the next 20 years. The densities anticipated in these areas would vary between 75 and 300 or more persons per acre. This was expected to more than double gross density in 1981 as compared to 1961 within these areas.

At the same time it was suggested that all of the vacant land now within the

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municipal limits would be completely developed with residential uses for the most part. Even then it was necessary to go beyond the 1962 boundaries.

Because of the desirability of the river and ravine oriented sites in southwest Edmonton, and because these sites are reasonably close to good roads and utilities, the bulk of the residential overflow was located in the southwest.

The balance was located on the north side of the Saskatchewan River in north— east Edmonton. The total developed area in 1981 amounted to some 46,000 acres.

This is about twice what the present developed area of Edmonton occupies. It is indeed significant to understand that we are suggesting that Edmonton will double in size and population in 20 years.

Employment and Economics 1981 (i) Employment Employment in 1981 was studied cooperatively with the Edmonton District Planning Commission. Employment in the core area was first estimated on the basis of correlations derived from the Economic Study of Watts Marketing and other employment statistics. Employment throughout the remaining parts of the City was calculated on the basis of a grass-roots approach. That is each traffic zone was studied individually. Interviews with all major employers were undertaken. The basic industrial employment throughout the City was calculated first. Special research was then given to construction, retail, office, government and public, and general commercial employment categories.

All the special traffic generators were interviewed and the results were indexed on cards.

A comparison of population changes in 1980 on a concentric ring basis shows clearly an increase in density in ring two, and three and a decrease in density in ring one. The outer rings have enlarged so that the 1962 ring five has enlarged to become rings five and six in 1981. The characteristic

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densities of ring 6 in 1961 has moved outwards again.

A comparison of employment on a concentric ring basis shows on the other hand a marked increase in employment density in ring one by 1981 and to a lesser extent in ring two. Ring 4 in 1961 has expanded to two rings by 1981. Ring 5 and 6 of the 1961 diagram have both moved further out by 1981.

The distribution of certain functions according to the population of the metropolis is a good illustration of how predictions of land use distribution can be made. Note how the uses move from the Core to Non Core areas as the City increases in size.

The Population Graph shows time on the horizontal axis and area on one vertical axis and population on the other. The diagrams show the relative size of Edmonton over time. (ii) Economics A very cursory examination of the Edmonton Regions Resource potential gives us good reason to anticipate considerable growth by 1981.

The resources of agriculture, forestry, minerals, energy, and tourism within the broad region which Edmonton as a major city dominates, appear to be available in sufficient supply. All but one of Edmonton major resources are the non depletable type. The one particularly volatile resource is minerals.

However the known oil and gas supply according to certain officials in Alberta's Oil and Gas Conservation Board, on the prairies will last until 3577 and 3712 A.D. (Based on Edmonton Journal news article). This is to say nothing of what may be found by additional exploration in the north and elsewhere.

Hines Creek Ore deposits, Yukon Ore Deposits, Pine Point Ore Deposits, Athabaska Oil Sands, the Pine Point Railway, Peace River Power, and other well known news items indicate the kind of resource potential to be found on our vast northern frontier which directly or indirectly could reflect favourably on Edmonton's growth.

The economic base of Edmonton appears to be diversified, broad, and relatively stable. Industrial development is proceeding well into the secondary and perhaps tertiary stages. The business climate of Edmonton is generally progressive and favors sound growth. Good labor, markets, raw material supplies, transportation and a large well serviced City are available here to attract industry.

In summary it is extremely doubtful if anything short of conscious government policy or national catastrophe could alter the favorable course that Edmonton appears set to follow, on a long term basis.

4. Population and Land Use 2000 A.D. I Population I would now like to discuss the land use and population of Edmonton about a half a century from now -- say somewhere around 2000 A.D. Often when one suggests such an idea there are those among us who are indeed skeptical to say the least. I think such people picture an impenetrable veil of darkness beyond the 20 year forecast period beyond which the forecaster must not step.

Surely efforts at contributing to knowledge are better than no efforts at all.

Certainly our traffic plan is only as good as the information we feed it -even if we must theorize about some of it -- and I believe the planner is best equipped to think about this in terms of land use.

For the purposes of the M.E.T.S. it was suggested that metropolitan Edmonton could have between

and 1 3/4 million people and they would occupy

some 160,000 acres in 2000 to 2050 A.D. as compared to 46,000 acres in 1981 and half of this today. This projection was made for a specific study and only applies if the rates of natural increase and immigration used apply over the period of forecast. There are many changes which could occur over such a long forecast period.

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II Growth Patterns The pattern of this growth could be compact or concentric in form, it could be in ribbons along major transport routes, it could be largely in planned or unplanned satellites, or it could be just an urban sprawl. I think we can avoid the second and last methods and it appears doubtful if Edmonton will ever, be comparable to some of the older more congested cities where a type of satellite devolution appeared necessary. It does however seem possible that existing towns could continue to grow as satellites of Edmonton.

Edmonton, to be precise, is located on a young stream-eroded lacustrine plain, broken only by the meanders of the Saskatchewan River Valley and some smaller tributaries. Geographically, physiographically, sociologically, and climatically there does not appear to be any serious obstacle to hinder Edmonton's spatial growth. Growth in all direction of almost any planned type appears quite possible with only minor site quality variations in some directions as compared to others.

Edmonton in 2000 A.D. may not differ too much from the Edmonton of 1981 except in size. It will probably be a compact type of planned city ringed with a circle of satellites such as Fort Saskatchewan, Morinville, Leduc and Stony Plain. The pull along the river valley should still be evident. The present greenbelt between St. Albert, Sherwood Park, and the City, could well be flooded by a wave of urban development which could engulf both of these 'communities within the City mass that should be Edmonton at this time -- much in the way Jasper Place and Beverly appear today. However this should not affect present policy and in fact may not occur at all. It is a speculative matter, one which needs more study.

III Urban Components The central Core Area of Edmonton could grow to an area of 3,000 acres by 2000 A.D. as compared to about 900 in 1981 and 400 today. This is the - 11 -

typical high value, concentrated, and heavily travelled part of central Edmonton. Most of the basic elements within this core may move westward except for the civic and provincial elements. This will leave a typical zone of discard to the east and a vanguard type zone to the west. This is according to some of the C.B.D. theories advanced by Murphy and others and is a subject of interest. The differentiation of the elements as districts of finance, government, and so on should be more pronounced at that time as well.

The river valley greenbelt should maintain itself through the forecast period. The ever present agricultural reserves at the periphery of the urban development should remain as a permanent, but yet a flexible "greenbelt-type" area (and I use the tem somewhat loosely) with the development of the city being directed into a compact form avoiding sprawl.

The growth of Edmonton is somewhat unimpeded because of the typical flat terrain. For this reason one can consider growth and development for general purposes in a very long range forecast in terms of sectors and rings. This approach follows some of the theories on urban expansion suggested by Burgess and Hoyt and others. Residential development should follow five sector patterns -- the Northeast Sector, the St. Albert Sector, the Jasper Sector, the River Valley Sector, and the Southwest Sector. Three other residential sections will be limited in growth by barriers -- The Namao Sector, the Northwest Sector (limited by industry), the Southeast Sector (limited by Southeast industry). Since the International Airport will restrict southward growth eventually and since considerable land is needed for the residential development anticipated by 2000 A.D. it is even possible that residential growth could jump the Calgary Trail to the southeast. This is again speculation.

But in order to find 160,000 acres of residential land one would be hard pressed if we were to ignore the southeast area which will not be filled with industry because of industries much slower rate of growth as compared to residential.

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Industry is limited to two rings -- the Northwest and the Southeast.

The Southeast industry should tend to concentrate more to the Northeast where there are advantages for waste disposal, fewer residential-industrial conflicts, and large acreages of fairly low cost land reasonably close to the City and its many services.

The question of Sherwood Park and the Industry that is gradually growing towards it is not clear. If suitable industrial performance standards are enforced Sherwood Park may merely continue expanding southeast. This is a question requiring further study.

I would like to end my discussion by emphasizing the significance of some of our findings to date. (a) It should be clear from the projections discussed that Edmonton is going to grow, and grow a great deal. (b) I believe any kind of planning whether it be transportation or otherwise, should take a long look ahead, a very long look, so that facilities will not have to be replaced time and time again but will rather fit together into an over-all traffic master plan staged to properly cope with growth as it occurs gradually meshing together piece by piece so that by 1981 and 2000 A.D. a fairly efficient organized system will exist. (c) Our City is young enough and vigorous enough to be able to avoid many of the pitfalls other large cities are struggling with today if we are careful and take advantage of the knowledge that is available to us.

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THE METROPOLITAN EDMONTON TRANSPORTATION STUDY THE TRANSIT SYSTEM AND PROPOSALS BY MR. D. L. MACDONALD, P.Eng. SUPERINTENDENT EDMONTON TRANSIT SYSTEM

It has been stated that there are three very important, but often overlooked, steps which are vital to achieving success in solving a problem - to recognize that there is a problem, to find out what the problem is, and to desire to solve it. Some years ago the City's Transit System and the City Engineers' Department appreciated the needs for finding related solutions to their rapidly approaching problems of the future.

It is obvious, for instance, that the urban pattern of Edmonton is changing and that the transportation pattern is therefore changing as well.

This has to be of particular interest to the transit system, for being an ordered system, it must be operated to at least the predominant prevailing patterns in order to be successful. There is, as an example, lest and less use being made of the public transportation facilities in the steady all-day, off-peak trips, with a consequent increase in the severity of the "peak trip" demands. There is also a greater geographical-area "spread" of the transit services, resulting from the ever-growing urban area required to accommodate the population in low-density residential developments. And there have been several other significant changes with which you may be familiar.

With the roadway systems and parking areas being called upon to handle the growth in transportation trips by private automobile, resulting both from the increasing population and the failures of the public transportation system to properly adjust to these changing patterns (which has caused fewer persons to use public transit), the roadways are becoming clogged with traffic in the peak hours and much valuable visitor and customer parking is being Used for the allday parking of large numbers of employees' cars.

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Finally, the saturation of the available transportation facilities, as the combined usage of the sidewalks, transit buses and street traffic lanes compete for and indeed often approaches (or indeed exceeds?) their capacities this saturation results in mutual interference between the pedestrian, transit passenger and the motorist. (This has been brought to the attention of both the Chamber of Commerce and the Edmonton Branch of the A.M.A. in recent months).

While each may try to blame the other, these irritations are symptomatic that "hardening of the arteries" is setting in and that new, higher capacity facilities will have to be designed and provided if the city is to remain healthy in those areas (such as the central core) where these ailments are being suffered most.

Thus the emerging problem appears to be an inter-related one, involving both public and private transportation - transit and traffic - and both pedestrian and vehicular traffic. It is to determine the best usage of the facilities of public and private transportation and the balance between each throughout the whole metropolitan area that the Metropolitan Edmonton Transportation Study was initiated. You have heard much of this study at this conference and its relationship to the development of an. urban pattern for the future through a Preliminary General Plan, which is due by July 1st, 1963.

Since public transportation is a vital element of the transportation section of any General Plan (indeed, an essential element for a considerable segment of the population as well as for certain kinds of urban development patterns); since it is an ordered and orderable system, and therefore its influences under different operating conditions are more readily calculable in a study initially; and since this is the work with which I have been most directly concerned; I propose to discuss with you the transit proposals which are being developed for the Study.

Firstly, in the interests of contributing toward the knowledge in - 2 -

this field, I should like to outline for you, briefly, a traffic predication method which we developed for an approximation of the traffic requirements anticipated for the future, and which was done manually. Our results have been compared with preliminary results of the "gravity-model" calculations prepared by computer in the Metropolitan Edmonton Transportation Study and were about 17% low for the 1961 traffic volumes and about 2% low for those of 1980 - indicating substantial agreement for predictions of this kind.

We have since found that our methods were very roughly similar in many respects to those used in several European cities forty to fifty years ago and also that the basics of the "gravity model" method were postulated by Edward Lill about 1891 and applied to Austrian railway trips before World War I. Our method was used to predict "Home-to-Work Trips"; to both the Central Core (or CBD) Area as well as to other major decentralized employment areas.

If it is given: that the present residential population by areas is known, and the present employment population by areas is also known; then these must be shown against a map of the existing city. This map is then divided into either approximately equal radial sectors or "corridors", or divided into corridors across transportation arteries whose future capacity requirements are to be found. This map may also be divided into roughly concentric zones if it is felt that the development throughout each sector will not be sufficiently uniform for reliable results. Finally, a sufficient sample of the population must be interviewed to ascertain, within the reliability required, where the place of employment is. Then an average percentage of the residents of each sector (and by zones if used) working in each employment area can be calculated.

Then, from the future land-use forecasts (reduced to residential and employed populations) these percentages may be used to estimate the future - 3 -

"home-to-work" trips when balanced to the future employment in these areas, a reasonable figure for the total employment of the residents of each area, and a judgment as to adjustments that may be reasonably made to allow for socioeconomic factors, etc.

Perhaps, from samplings of the resident population for "other purposes" of trips these might also be estimated in the same way. It would be of great interest to learn of any work or results others may have done in this simplified set of calculation of trips predictions.

It was noted in Edmonton that the CBD employees were rather consistently distributed according to the residential population distribution, The employees of other-than-CBD areas, on the other hand, were in all cases distributed as between. 68% and 72% resident within that sector where the employment area was contained or the two immediately adjacent sectors.

It then remains to be determined what portions of these volumes might be carried by public transportation, private transportation, or by pedestrian or other method, or by combination of these over certain segments of the trip (i.e. the "mode-split"). This is a complex study. We have, however, done considerable experimentation on different fares and methods of operation to establish results from adjusting different factors affecting the use of public transportation and have enjoyed remarkable results - the most recent being a 30% increase in work-trips across the river as a result of more direct routings on almost all of the routes crossing the river. These results, achieved this fall, have not yet been evaluated but will be interesting to fit into "mode split diversion curves".

From this work we are now developing in some preliminary detail a proposal to provide "rapid-transit" operation, in trains, and separated from private transportation to avoid conflicting movements, for the Study.

GROWTH ASPECTS: In this, our tentative work, we wish to emphasize that (a) Low Density Residential Development is designed around the private transportation vehicle. (b) Highly Concentrated Development (commercial, university, etc.) is designed around the pedestrian, (and apparently without limit - c.f. Pan American Building in New York with its projected 27,000 employees; Montreal's Dorchester Street with approximately 42,000 employees; and its proposed Place Victoria which is being spoken of as proposed to be the largest single office complex in the world and would therefore be larger than the Pan American Building still under construction.)

Mr. Blumenfeld dealt with the facts of this kind of development, the nature of it and what is known of it in his paper yesterday.

The Freeway must bypass such areas and provide a bypass for the vehicular traffic not destined for such areas if these areas are to be preserved for people and commerce; and also if such a freeway is not to lose its time advantages (which were, by use - benefit calculations, probably used to justify it originally) through congestion in the loading - unloading facilities or interchanges of the Freeway.

It is of interest to note, in passing, that the theory of motorists being attracted to the shortest time path automatically tends to congest freeways until, in congested areas at least, the alternative side streets provide equally quick or even quicker trip-paths (c.f. Eno Foundation's Traffic Quarterly of July, 1962 - "The Law of Peak-Hour Expressway Congestion"

by Anthony Downs). This diversion back to the previous street system is being experienced now in some parts of Toronto and also San Francisco.

In addition, of course, freeways do not provide for the storage of vehicles so this must be provided elsewhere.

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Thus Rapid Transit appears, to provide transportation into the Concentrated Areas and being fed in the outer areas by a much simpler, efficient surface transportation system, by autos (in park-ride) from the lower density residential areas and by pedestrians from high density residential developments adjacent to .stations.

In outermost areas, the routes probably would lie in the medians of freeways where these are built, to contain the transportation facilities as compactly as possible. These tentative ideas for a Rapid Transit scheme in Edmonton, including a section of subway downtown to facilitate passenger distribution, check out by analogy to several similar appearing instances of medium sized "corridors" in several American cities (Shaker Heights in Cleveland, for example) and European cities (particularly Hanover in West Germany).

The Isochrone or Time-Contour Method to establish Public Transportation Routes: Several European cities appear to use a different method of establishing Rapid Transit lines. This is of interest to us for several reasons: (a) Time limitations to prepare good reliable future development transit plans. (b) The tremendous growth projections for this area, and (c) The possibility of a more desirable 50 year urban pattern for ,microClimate and sociological influences.

For this method, it must be assumed that the City will grow and go on growing (c.f. Colin Clark's works).

It is also important to recognize that the transportation-time studies such as were spoken of this morning (Mr. D. Hill's paper) are guide lines for the initial routing considerations and the trip-times are not necessarily going to remain in effect with additional loadings (please refer to the "freeway vs side streets loading" argument earlier in this paper).

And thirdly, it must be determined that a city is confined really to one having a reasonable maximum trip time, say 30 or 40 minutes

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A design can then be developed to these criteria - indeed several may be tried with various speeds, station stops, etc. Finally a series of Isochromes or Time-Interval Contour lines will be produced, meeting basic land-use policies. Such designs readily develop into the finger-plan of Stockholm or Copenhagen - an urban design for a very large built up area that is worthy of serious consideration, such as that projected 50 years hence, for many reasons such as accessible recreation areas, and green areas to influence micro-climate. It even has appeal to the engineer, to plan actual subdivision development through construction of such an additional transportation terminal as to encourage a definite development program in the desired direction (c.f. It was been argued that it is actually sewer lines which direct Planning). I believe this is done in Stockholm. This also establishes the development most favorable to the transportation system, and vice versa.

I hope I have covered at least some of the important considerations involved in public transportation planning for the future, and with several reference to the work in progress here. Our next steps will be to prepare several preliminary, co-ordinated transportation systems plans. We are particularly engaged in one utilizing train rapid transit, separated from interferences by and to other surface traffic. These will be done and evaluated before next Spring for incorporation of the optimum desired scheme in the Cityl s Preliminary General Plan.

Its (The Plan's) importance to this community cannot be understated.

An enormous amount of work remains to be done, and shortly, for as they said in San Francisco several years ago "1970 is Tomorrow" After all, 1980, only 17 years hence, is only as distant in the future as World War II lies behind us.

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Footnote: Mr. Hans Blumenfeld pointed out that, because of the freedom of the private vehicle to divert from any planned transportation artery, today the "Finger - Plan" urban design cannot be created through transportation planning alone. Where this kind of design is desired (and it does offer an interesting pattern) it must be accomplished through other controls. Indeed, sewer lines exert an extremely important influence upon urban development.

The author conceded Mr. Blumenfeld's point.

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