Edmonton (Alta.) - 1967 - Residential land use staging, 1967-1971 (1967-06)

SD L BFtARY

RESIDENTIAL

LAND USE

STAGING

1967-1971

CITY PLANNING DEPARTMENT EDMONTON ALBERTA

2522a' .E3 E373 • 1967

RESEARCH REPORT NO. 5

RESIDENTIAL LAND USE STAGING 1967 TO 1971

Planning Department City of Edmonton June, 1967

This report was prepared by N. Werner and E. Dmytruk, Planning Assistants, under the supervision of W. Walchuk, Senior Planner, with the overall direction and guidance of P. Ellwood, Assistant Director of Planning and S. C. Rodgers, Director of Planning.

11

TABLE

OF

CONTENTS Page

SUMMARY

iv

I. INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH APPROACH

1

A. The Problem B. Scope and Method of Report

1 2

II. FACTORS AFFECTING NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION A. B. C. D. E. F. G.

Housing Inventory and Changes Changes in the Housing Stock 1961 - 1966 Land and Building Costs An Attractive Housing Market Population Characteristics Size of Households Government Participation

III. HOUSING CONSTRUCTION 1967 - 1971 A. Projected Housing Construction B. Projected Housing Inventory IV. DWELLING TYPES AND DISTRIBUTION A. Dwelling Types B. Dwelling Distribution V. STAGING CONSIDERATIONS A. Expansion Areas B. Suburban Growth Patterns C. Utility and Roadway Considerations VI. RESIDENTIAL STAGING A. Staging Method B. Staging Alternatives C. Summary and Recommendations

4 4 5 6 8 10 12 12

15 15

19 19 19 22 22

23 24 26 26 27 32

111

LIST

OF

TABLES

AND

DRAWINGS Page

Tables 1 2

3 1+ 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

18 19 20

Housing Inventory, City of Edmonton, 1961 to 1966 Aggregate Changes in the Housing Inventory Dwelling Starts, City of Edmonton, 1961 to 1966 Apartment Vacancy Rates, City of Edmonton Basic Housing Requirement Dwelling Unit Construction Housing Inventory 1967 - 1971 Required Dwelling Units by Type Distribution of Dwelling Units Distribution of Suburban Vacant Lots Suburban Growth Rates Suburban Population Increases by Area Required Suburban Serviced Lots Scheme 1 - Distribution of Required Serviced Lots Distribution of Suburban Growth Rates, 1967 - 1971 Scheme 2 - Distribution of Required Serviced Lots Scheme 3 - Distribution of Required Serviced Lots Summary of Staging Schemes Recommended Distribution of Growth Recommended Distribution of Required Serviced Lots

Drawings 1 2

3 4 5 6

4 4 5 8 15 17 18 19 21 23 23 24 27 28, 29 29 30, 31 31, 32 32

35 35 Following Page

Population Increase by Area Staging Scheme 1 - Existing Expansion Areas Staging Scheme 2 - Natural Growth Patterns Staging Scheme 3 - Utility and Roadway Considerations Recommended Detailed Residential Staging Plan Recommended General Residential Staging Plan

19 27 29 31

33 33

iv

SUMMARY This summary recounts the major findings in this report. Related findings are discussed throughout the various sections of the report.

1. In the long run the growth of the population and changes in its composition (the formation of new families and non-family households) and the need to replace existing housing units constitute the principal determinants of the demand for housing.

2. It is expected that the trend toward apartment living in Edmonton will continue. Between December 31, 1961 and December 31, 1966 the stock of single and two-family dwellings increased by 15.5 percent while apartments and row houses increased by 56.2 percent. The proportion of single and two-family dwelling starts has been declining relative to total starts, decreasing from 62.7 percent in 1961 to 57.1 percent in 1966.

3. Rise in housing costs will continue to be proportionate to the rise in per capita money income in the foreseeable future. In view of a rising income, moderate changes in house prices will not affect the housing market.

4. The demand for apartments as evidenced by high monthly cash rents and low vacancy rates since 1965 foreshadows a high level of apartment construction.

5. In the period December 31, 1961 to December 31, 1966, the population increased by 59,000 persons or by

37

percent. During the succeeding five-

year period the population is expected to increase by 62,000 persons.

The large population increase plus a trend to an older population group and the entrance of the postwar baby boom into the marriage age

group should create a strong demand for one and two-person households.

6. The number of people per dwelling unit has decreased from 3.60 in 1951 to 3.50 and

3.39

in 1961 and 1966 respectively. A further decline to

3.27

people per dwelling unit is expected by 1971 due to an increase in each of the following: small family households; non-family households; and, vacancy rates.

7. In the period 1961 to 1966, Federal Government participation through housing legislation was one of the major factors determining the level of housing construction in a particular year. Government participation will continue to affect the level of housing construction by manipulation of the terms and conditions of mortgage financing.

8. Projections of population and building trends indicate that about 28,750 new dwelling units will be provided between December 31, 1966 and December 31, 1971. The net gain will be approximately 23,370 dwelling units.

The losses are outlined in Section III of the report.

9. Dwelling types required were determined by examining past trends, existing shortages and the anticipated population composition. It has been estimated that it will take an average of 3,200 apartment and row units and 2,550 single and two-family dwellings a year to meet the needs of the City's population by the year end of 1971.

10. New residential development is distributed into three major areas: the Central Area; the Developed Area; and, the Suburban Area. (See Drawing 1 for delimitation.) Development in the Central Area will largely consist of high and medium density apartments where such development is presently allowed. The area termed as Developed Area is a stable area in which

vi little construction or demolition is anticipated prior to 1971. However, a decline in the population density is expected. The Suburban Area or area of expansion will largely consist of single-family dwelling units with concentrations of medium density apartments and institutional housing.

11. Of the 28,750 dwelling units to be constructed, 10,000 units are expected to be built in the Central and Developed Areas and 18,750 units in the Suburban Area. The 18,750 dwelling units can be further broken down into 12,250 single and two-family units and 6,500 apartment and row units.

12. Total area available for residential expansion within the present City limits consists of 7,600 acres of unsubdivided land plus 5,700 vacant lots. The distribution is as follows: 4,000 acres and 2,560 lots are in the northeast; 3,000 acres and 1,940 lots are in the southwest; 600 acres and 200 lots are located in west Edmonton; and, approximately 1,000 vacant lots scattered throughout the Developed Area of the City.

13.The detailed Recommended Five-Year Staging Plan and the General Recommended Staging Plan provide land for 5,800 single and two-family dwelling units in the southwest; 4,900 units in the northeast; and 1,550 units in the west. Eight hundred of the 1,550 units staged for west Edmonton are within the present City limits.

14. The Recommended Five-Year Residential Staging Plan outlines desired residential expansion on a yearly basis over a five-year period and is subject to revision at any time. This Plan should be considered as information only.

15. The Recommended General Residential Staging Plan indicates the amount of

vii land that will be required in the succeeding five-year period and outlines the general direction of growth. It is recommended that this Plan be adopted by City Council.

RESIDENTIAL LAND USE STAGING 1967 - 1971 I. INTRODUCTION AND RESEARCH APPROACH A. The Problem The City of Edmonton maintains the primary responsibility for providing a choice of economical, pleasant and attractive sites for all types of housing for its citizens. Consequently, the City must take the initiative in promoting better planning of all the elements upon which housing depends.

New housing will require not only expenditures for land, building materials and labour, but a vast public investment in sewers, water distribution systems, paved streets, power lines, schools, buses, fire and police protection and a great many other services. The City, beset by demands for such services, has deemed it necessary to continue a policy of orderly programming of public works. Detailed plans of this nature will guide the City's executives and elected officials in making decisions and direct City department heads when planning their individual programs. In addition, it will aid private agencies concerned with the City's development to program their own expansion.

The forthcoming General Plan emphasises that, basically, new development should be compactly planned as successive extensions of the main urban area and that each area of development should be selected for its most appropriate use. Through better planning a great deal of wasteful spending on public services can be avoided.

The General Plan outlines a desirable long-range program for residential development in three five-year stages and recommends the preparation of a detailed plan showing anticipated residential expansion on a

yearly basis for the first five-year period f the long-range program.

This is the primary concern of this report and is the Planning Department's first detailed programming report of this nature.

B. Scope and Method of Report The General Flan, and more specifically the Population, Land Use, Residential, and Programming Chapters are used as a guide for this report. In brief, this report and the staging of residential development involves the following steps: 1. An examination and evaluation of factors which effect housing construction and demand. This phase of the report is examined in detail in Section II. 2. A detailed inventory of population trends, housing inventory trends and distribution, dwelling starts and vacancy rates in the various dwelling types. This part of the report is discussed in Sections II and III. 3. Determination of residential requirements in terms of numbers of units by two categories - (a) single and two-family dwellings, and (b) apartments and row houses. This part of the report is examined in Section IV. 4. A careful analysis of the utility extensions, roadway proposals, topography, soil conditions and proximity to the core area, work areas and recreational areas. Staging considerations are examined in Section V. 5. An analysis of three different residential expansion schemes: (1) that confining development within the present City boundary, (2) that

3 concerning natural growth patterns, and (3) that considering utility and roadway extensions. From the three schemes a conclusion is derived encompassing the most advantageous and desirable factors. Final recommendations follow. This part of the report is examined in Section VI.

II. FACTORS AFFECTING NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION A. Housing Inventory and Changes In the period December 31, 1961 to December 31, 1966 the total housing inventory increased 23.7 percent. The stock of single and twofamily dwellings increased by 15.5 percent while apartments and row houses increased by 56.2 percent. This noticeable trend toward apartment living is expected to continue.

Table 1 HOUSING INVENTORY, CITY OF EDMONTON, 1961 TO 1966*

Dwelling Units

Apartment and Row

Single and Two Family

Stock as of Dec. 31, 1961

92,160

76,727

15,455

Stock as of Dec. 31, 1966

112,681

88,580

24,1o1

20,521

11,853

8,668

Net Increase

*Includes Jasper Place and Beverly Source: City Assessor and City of Edmonton Planning Department Adjustment Table 2 AGGREGATE CHANGES IN THE HOUSING INVENTORY

Period

Average Annual Net Increase in Single Family Dwellings

Average Annual Net Increase in Total Dwelling Units

1951 - 1960

2238

3461

1961 - 1966

2371

4104

-5 The net additions to the housing stock have been at a substantially greater annual rate in the five years December 31, 1961 to December 31, 1966 than in the decade of the 1950's.

B. Changes in the Housing Stock 1961 - 1966 1. Dwelling Starts Single and two-family dwelling starts averaged 2,553 units and apartment and row houses averaged 1,696 units per year in the period December 31, 1961 to December 31, 1966. The proportion of single and two-family dwelling starts has been decreasing as a proportion of total starts for each year with the exception of 1965. Total dwelling starts decreased sharply in the latter part of 1966, foreshadowing a low rate of completions in the early part of 1967.

Table 3 DWELLING STARTS, CITY OF EDMONTON, 1961 TO 1966*

Type

1961

%

1962

1963

%

1964

%

1965

%

1966

%

Single and Two Family

2599 62.7

2863 62.0

2635 59.1

2488 58.1

2669 60.9

2065 57.1

Apartment And Row

1543 37.3

1753 38.0

1821 40.9

1796 41.9

1711 39.1

1549 42.9

Total

4142 100.0

4616 100.0

4456 100.0

4284 100.0

4380 100.0

3614 100.0

*Includes Jasper Place and Beverly Source: C.M.H.C. and City of Edmonton Planning Department 2. Conversions and Demolitions The net loss of dwelling units as a result of conversions

and demolitions averaged 155 dwelling units per year in the period 1961 to 1966.

Average number of new units resulting from conversions per year.

63

Average number of demolitions per year.

218

Average yearly loss of dwelling units from the housing inventory.

155

In view of the roadway, bridge and urban renewal programs this figure is expected to increase considerably in the succeeding five-year period.

C. Land and Building Costs The cost of new homes financed under the National Housing Act (N.H.A.) increased each year since 1961. This increase resulted from rising prices of materials, rising wage rates of construction workers, increasing land and servicing costs and to some extent a trend to larger houses and more extras. These factors together with supplementary costs such as legal fees, combined to raise the average cost of N.H.A. financed bungalows in Edmonton by 20.8 percent between 1961 and 1966. This compares with an increase of 24.9 percent for twelve major metropolitan areas in Canada and 24.8 percent for Canada as a whole.

C.M.H.C. statistics show that land costs in Edmonton in 1966 for N.H.A. financed bungalows were about $570 per lot above the national average and $100 below the average of twelve •major metropolitan areas in Canada. Between 1961 and 1966, land costs in Edmonton increased by 17.0 percent as compared to 22,5 percent for Canada and 29.5 percent for the

-7twelve major metropolitan areas. Residential lots in Edmonton increased in price quite rapidly since 1964 whereas on the national level sharpest 1 increases occurred prior to 1963.

Between 1961 and 1966 the price of residential building materials increased by 18.5 percent while non-residential building materials increased at a steady but slower pace of 14.6 percent.

In general, the 11 percent

federal sales tax on building materials imposed in 1963 and a rising demand for construction materials created by the major wave of construction spending contributed to the building materials price increases. A more pronounced increase occurred in the labour resource market which showed a 28 percent wage rate increase for construction workers in the previous five years. In the main, residential building materials and wage rates increased at a slightly faster rate than in the non-residential sector in the period 1961 to 1966.

It is interesting to add, that, while costs in the housing industry have increased approximately as fast as in the manufacturing industry, the construction industry has not been able, through more efficient building methods, to moderate the impact of rising costs on prices charged the consumer. In effect then, a given quantum of housing will continue to cost approximately the same in relation to a family's current money income. One can conclude, then, that in view of rising income levels, moderate changes in house prices will not affect the housing market. A rising level of real incomes of the population in general, however, will enable families to move into bigger and better homes.

1Land cost data reflect the prices paid for lots. These prices vary with changing proportions of fully serviced, partially serviced and unserviced lots. In the case of serviced lots, prices also vary with changes in the method of financing.

8 D. An Attractive Housing Market The demand for housing is currently very high as indicated by such factors as high apartment rental rates and low vacancies, and the small number of vacant completed single family dwellings.

The most significant decrease in vacancy rates in apartments occurred in the one and two bedroom dwelling types followed closely by bachelor apartments.

Table 4 APARTMENT VACANCY RATES - CITY OF EDMONTON*

Dec. 31, 1966 Dec. 31, 1965 Dec. 31, 1964 Dec. 31, 1963 Downtown Area Bachelor Apt. 1 - Bedroom Apt. 2 - Bedroom Apt. 3 - Bedroom Apt.

1.62 1.49 .74 2.38

1.52 2.07 2.77 2.43

14.77

14.40

7.88

17.05

9.49 2.78

5.65 8.82

Weighted Average

1.36

2.11

10.05

13.64

Remainder of Metro Area Bachelor Apt. 1 - Bedroom Apt. 2 - Bedroom Apt. 3 - Bedroom Apt.

1.81 .87

1.90 1.71

8.97 11.17

7.50 10.41

.57

.77

9.13

7.44

1.38

2.30

13.86

Weighted Average

.65

1.25

8.55

9.07

Vacancies in High Rise Apartments Bachelor Apt. 1 - Bedroom Apt. 2 - Bedroom Apt. 3 - Bedroom Apt.

1.84 1.67

.86 7.69

Weighted Average

1.60

1.34 2.37 .31 1.60

17.59 8.79 9.57 8.33 11.58

23.43 30.31 7.72 30.00 23.40

*Survey includes units in apartment buildings that were completed for more than six months. The results are based on a sampling of apartments comprising about one third of all rental units in Edmonton.

Source: C.M.H.C. and City of Edmonton Planning Department.

The high apartment occupancy levels experienced during the latter part of 1965 and in 1966 should continue throughout 1967. The rise in occupancy levels is attributed to the shortages created by a major slowdown in residential construction, particularly apartments. The rectification of these shortages is considered in the estimates of required dwelling units in the succeeding Section.

C.M.H.C. statistics for the first three months in 1967 indicate a sharp drop from the previous year in the number of newly completed and unoccupied single and two-family dwellings. This trend is undoubtedly related to the exceptionally small number of dwelling starts during 1966.

Like completions, dwelling starts at the end of March, 1967 were lower than the starts at the same time last year. However, recent statistics issued by the City of Edmonton show a sharp gain in the number of units to be constructed as indicated by permits issued. During March and April permits were issued for 815 single, two and three-family units and 527 apartment units. The total units for the two months is nearly five times greater than the total units for January and February of this year.

The total number of units for which applications were made during the first four months of 1967 is well above that of the corresponding period in previous years.

At any given time some portion of the housing stock should be vacant in order to provide for new family formation, population shift, a choice in accommodations and to maintain fair prices. The present trend toward greater mobility of families and a changing attitude away from

-10-

maintaining a permanent home have necessitated an increase in the vacancy rate required.

E. Population Characteristics Assuming all other factors favourable to housing construction, future construction and their types will be directly related to the population, its composition and its characteristics. Such factors as an increasing tendency for single individuals (both young and old) to maintain their own households, increases the demand for space within a constant population. An increase in marriages creates a similar effect.

1. Growth and Age Distribution In the five-year period December 31, 1961 to December 31, 1966 Edmonton's population (including Beverly and Jasper Place) increased by 59,000 persons or by 18.3 percent. starts increased by nearly 23 percent.

During the same period, dwelling The City's population growth

rate decreased noticeably between 1965 and 1966 as did dwelling starts.

Increased economic activities in northern Alberta and the Northwest Territories are partially responsible for the temporary slowdown in the rate of population growth in Edmonton.

It is expected that the City's population will continue to increase at approximately the same rates of increase from 1966 to 1971 as it had between 1961 to 1966. The age distribution pattern will be somewhat different, however, with a slightly greater proportion of persons in the 10 to 19 year and over 50 year categories and a slightly lower proportion of persons in the 0 to 9 year and 20 to 39 year

- 11

categories. The change in the age distribution is being caused by both family postponement and the relatively low birth rates during the depression years.

2. Marriage Rate The relatively small number of males and females in the 15 to 24 year age group has been a significant factor in the decline of marriages from 11.2 per thousand in 1961 to 8.7 per thousand in 1964.

In 1965, however, with the entry into the marriageable age bracket of those born during the postwar baby boom the marriage rate increased slightly to 9.1 per thousand population.

The effect of the high

birth rate during the early postwar years should continue to be felt during the next five years creating a relatively strong demand for two or three-person dwelling units (basically apartments). . Immigration Positive net-migration between 1961 and 1965 has increased Edmonton's population by an average 3,000 persons annually. By assuming that half of the immigrants are married, the net increase in the number of new families requiring households, as a result of immigration, averaged 750 per year. The future flow of migrants to Edmonton will be contingent on the economic position of Edmonton as compared to the remainder of Canada and the world. The enactment of the proposed changes to the Federal "Immigration Act" is expected to increase immigration.

F. Size of Household Housing requirements depend on both households and families. A household consists of one or more persons occupying the same dwelling unit.

A declining household size as related to a constant population virtually means a steady demand for additions to the housing supply.

Since 1951 there has been a decrease in the number of people per dwelling unit (household size) from 3.60 in 1951 to 3.50 in 1961 and followed by a more rapid reduction to

3.39 persons per dwelling unit in 1966.

The great influx of apartment construction between 1961 and 1966 resulting from the growing popularity of apartments due to changing living habits, accounts mainly for the decline. Apartments are best suited, both in terms of space and cost, to young families with no children or only one child, to couples whose children are no longer living at home and nonfamily households. During the early sixties the number of households belonging to these categories grew rapidly.

By 1971 one, two and three-person and institutional households will increase substantially. The remainder will show more moderate gains.

The overall effect of this trend will be to further decrease the number of people per dwelling unit.

G. Government Participation In past years, Federal housing legislation was one of the major factors determining the level of housing construction in a particular year.

The availability of mortgage financing and the terms and conditions of the mortgage had a direct and greater effect on the housing market than any

-13 -

other single factor with the exception of basic demand.

In 1966, the lack of mortgage money, due to tight money policies instituted by the Federal Government to curb inflation, resulted in a reduction in the number of housing starts.

In addition, the decrease in

housing construction at the end of 1966 was, to a certain degree, a result of the announcement by the Federal Government that, beginning in March of

1967, N.H.A. mortgage interest rates would be adjusted quarterly to 1Y2 percent above the average yield on long-term government bonds. Consequently, builders were expecting lower mortgage rates in 1967 and held off their

borrowing and construction. The new policy changes will make mortgages more attractive by keeping the rate in line with money market fluctuation.

In addition, the Federal Government has initiated three other policy

changes which should stimulate conventional lending and thus housing construction:

(a) Removal of existing interest limitations on N.H.A. loans made by banks. (b) N.H.A. insured loans will be available for the purchase of used housing, subject to a maximum limit of $10,000 on individual loans. To be eligible, the house must be transferred, improved and occupied by the purchaser. (c) Speculative building loans for construction starts in the April 1 to May 31 period of 1967 were made available. This enabled builders to apply for loans without first securing a sales contract.

A factor Which would likely have a strong effect on housing construction and residential staging in the future would be the institution of a comprehensive housing program by the Federal and Provincial

- 14 -

Governments. Such a program could provide easier credit terms, lower down payment requirements and an extension of mortgage contract lengths.

-15 III. HOUSING REQUIREMENTS 1967 - 1971

A. Projected Housing Construction Projected housing construction is based on the number of new housing units to be constructed taking into account the existing shortage and the expected demolitions. No attempt is made to evaluate "housing need" as it is a measurement of overcrowding or substandard accommodation.

Housing construction is thus defined as: Housing Construction = Basic Requirement + Shortage + Demolitions 1, Basic Requirement The basic requirement was determined by relating the population to the housing stock for the years 1961 to 1966. The number of persons per dwelling unit decreased from 3.50 in 1961 to 3.39 in 1966.

Based on population estimate of 444,000 by December 31, 1971 and a continued decline in the household size, the basic requirement is as follows: Table 5 BASIC HOUSING REQUIREMENT

Year to Adjusted Dec. 31 Population

1961

323,000

1962 1963

335,000 346,000 358,700 372,000 382,000

1964 1965 1966 Projected 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

393,000 405,000 417,500 430,500

444,000

Population Increase

12,000 11,000 12,000 13,300 10,000

11,000 12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500

People Per Dwelling Unit

Dwelling Units

3450

92,160

3.47

96,600 100,930

3.43 3.41 3.4o 3.39 3.372 3.354 3.336 3.318 3.300

105,070

109,270 112,680 116,550 120,750 125,150 129,750 134,500

Increase In Dwelling Units

4,44o

4,330 4,14o 4,200 3,410

3,870 4,2oo L1 , 1+00 4,600 4,800

From Table 5, the basic requirement is 3,870 dwelling units in 1967 increasing to 4,800 units in 1971 for a basic increase of 21,870 dwelling units in the five year period.

2. Shortage The shortage of housing units is determined by apartment vacancy rates and the number of newly completed and unoccupied singlefamily dwellings. The current apartment vacancy rate of 1.0 percent should be at least 5 percent for normal demand. Based on the present stock of 24,100 apartment units, there exists a shortage of 1,000 apartment units. Considering a further increase in the apartment stock in the next five years and also that the present supply of vacant single-family homes is lower than normal, a total shortage of 1,500 dwelling units is estimated. It will be assumed that this additional 1,500 units will relieve the housing shortage by 1971. . Demolitions Demolitions are a measure of units intentionally destroyed for a variety of reasons, i.e. obsolescence and Civic Centre, roadway, and other development schemes. These units will have to be replaced and will form a component of the new housing construction. Total demolitions are expected to amount to 5,380 units during the period 1967 to 1971 and will consist of: Urban renewal redevelopment totalling 1,750 units consisting of 600 units in the Civic Centre, 200 units in other parts of the City and 950 units which do not meet building code standards;

-17Withdrawal of 1,200 illegal basement suites from the housing stock; Displacement of 300 units in north Garneau through University expansion; Displacement of 1,030 units by proposed roadways including the Low Level, Capilano and 105th Street Bridges; Normal demolitions in the developed areas amounting to 1,100 units. In general, these will be replaced by apartment or commercial uses.

The projected housing construction is itemized in the following table: Table 6 DWELLING UNIT CONSTRUCTION

YEAR BASIC SHORTAGE REQUIREMENT. .

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Totals

TOTAL Normal HOUSING Demoli- CONSTRUCUrban Basement University Suites Expansion Roadways tions TION Renewal DEMOLITIONS

4,600 4,800

700 200 200 200 200

550

400 400 400

21,870

1,500

1,750

1,200

3,870

4,200 4,400

350 400 450

-

100 100

50 50 300

140 190 200 250

200 210 220 230

250

240

4,910 5,250 5,920 6,180 6,490

1,030

1,100

28,750

In summary, then, the new dwelling units to be constructed in the years 1967 - 1971 will be: Basic Requirement

21,870 units

Shortage

1,500 units

Demolitions

5,380 units

Total Housing Construction

28,750 units

900 ^ -

Dwelling Starts in the City of Edmonton

-

800-

KEY Row Housing and Apartments

700-

Detached and Semi—detached i

600

City of Edmonton Planning Deportment

--1 _

500

-

-

-

-

400

300

200

100

YEAR

-

Vacancy Percentages of Apartment Buildings

- 15%

in the Downtown Area in the remainder of the Metropolitan Area City Average - 10%

City of Edmonton

- 5`k,

1962

1963

11 111111 1 lilt 11 1 1 111 111

1964 I

1965

ii1 If 1 1111 11 11 1111 1 1 111

1

11 tilt

C.M.H.C. defines the Downtown Area as bounded on the North by the C.N.R. tracks, on the South by the River, on the East by 82 St. on the West by 124 St.

1

11

900

Newly Completed ,Unoccupied, Detached and Semi-detached Dwellings —800

------- Edmonton Metropolitan Area Edmonton City —700

City of Edmonton Planning Deportment k

—600

It I t I

—500

I I,)

I I

i

I

—400

r ;

1

I 1 I

— 300

1

;

\ \

—200

es.

--

, ''..,

N.,./

f....._

'.....,

,

—100 YEAR

•0.,,„19,62,.,„1,,,,„19r3„,„1,,„..19tlift

1967 ;Li 1 ; 1 19165 ;;Iiiiiiik[ 19166; 1 I ; ;

1 1 1 .1 1 1.1 I 1 I ; 1 .

-18 Projected Housing Inventory

By December 13, 1971 the housing stock is expected to total 136,050 units, an increase of 23,370 units consisting of 28,750 newly constructed units, less 5,380 demolitions.

Table 7 HOUSING INVENTORY, 1967 - 1971

Year to Dec. 31 1966 Projected 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Net Increase

Single & Two Family

Apartment and Row

Total Dwelling Units

88,580

24,100

112,680

90,590 92,530 94,160 95,850 97,6140

26,660 29,120 32,090 35,200 38,410

117,250 121,650 126,250 131,050 136,050

9,060

14,310

23,370

-19-

IV. DWELLING TYPES AND DISTRIBUTION A. Dwelling Types Required dwelling units are categorized into single and twofamily units, and apartment and row units. No attempt was made to classify dwelling types according to size or price range. Based on the population composition, existing shortages and past trends outlined in Section II of the report, it was possible to determine required dwelling types. Table 8 shows that it will take 16,000 apartments and row units and 12,750 single and two-family dwellings to meet the needs of the City's population by the end of 1971. Actual development will be reviewed yearly and necessary adjustments made.

Table 8 REQUIRED DWELLING UNITS BY TYPE

Year to Dec. 31

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Total

Total Units

Single and Two Family

4,910

2,350

5,250 5,920

2,450

Percent of Total Units

Apartment and Row

Percent of Total Units

42.9

2,560 2,800 3,370 3,530

53.3 57.0 57.1

47.9 46.7

52.1

43.0

6,490

2,550 2,650 2,750

42.4

3 740

57.6

28,750

12,750

44.4

16,000

55.6

6,180

B. Dwelling Distribution The required dwelling units are distributed between the Developed Area of the City and the Suburban Area of expansion. The distribution of dwelling units is dependent upon past and anticipated growth patterns for these two areas.

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CENTRAL AREA

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DEVELOPED AREA -6,397 SUBURBAN AREA

68,312

TOTAL 66,506

Research Report Number 5

POPULATION INCREASE BY AREA 1961 -1966

Drawing City of Edmonton Planning Department Inc7

- 20 Population growth patterns from April, 1961 to November, 1966 are indicated in Drawing 1 and are summarized as follows: Central Area Developed Area

4,591

Suburban Area

-6,397 68,312

Total Population Increase

66,506

Central Area growth may be attributed to apartment concentration, whereas the Developed Area decrease is due to demolitions and a change in the composition of families. In the past population decreases in the Developed Area have been about the same as population increases in the Central Area. It will be assumed then, that the total projected population increase of 62,000 between 1967 and 1971 will occur in the Suburban Area.

At an average density of 3.3 people per unit, this will create a demand for an additional 18,750 dwelling units in the Suburban Area. The dwelling units in this area are further classified into 6,500 apartment and row housing units and 12,250 single and two-family units. The high proportion of apartments in the Suburban Area may be justified by the increasing tendency for comprehensive commercial residential developments and institutional housing in new subdivisions.

Construction in the Central and Developed Areas should total 10,000 dwelling units by the end of 1971. Apartments are expected to constitute the major portion of these 10,000 units. Table 9 shows the distribution of the required 28,750 dwelling units according to year and dwelling type.

- 21 Table 9 DISTRIBUTION OF DWELLING UNITS SUBURBAN AREA

CENTRAL AND DEVELOPED AREAS Single and Two Family

Apartment and Row

1968 1969 1970 1971

100 100 100 100 100

Total

500

1,520 1,660 2,000 2,100 2 220 .....1_-__ 9,500

YEAR

1967

Total

Single and Two Family

Apartment and Row

Total

TOTAL UNITS

1,620 1,760 2,100 2,200 2,320

2,250 2,350 2,450 2,550 2,650

1,040 1,140 1,370 1,430 1,520

3,290 3,490 3,820 3,980 4,170

4,910 5,250 5,920 6,180 6,490

10,000

12,250

6,500

18,750 28,750

- 22 -

V. STAGING CONSIDERATIONS Staging for the five-year program is based mainly on three considerations: expansion areas within the City boundary; past growth patterns; and utility and roadway services. Land ownership is not considered; however, in areas that are excessively subdivided, development is delayed to allow time for negotiations for replotting. General Plan principles of development are used as a guide in the staging program.

A. Expansion Areas The total area available for residential expansion within the present City limits consists of 7,600 acres of unsubdivided residential land, plus 5,700 serviced and unserviced vacant lots. The unsubdivided 7,600 acres consist of 4,000 acres in the northeast, 3,000 acres in the southwest, and 600 acres in the west.

Development in portions of the northeast is hampered by industrial influences and the extensive fragmentation of land ownership. In the southwest there is a lesser degree of fragmentation and the ravines and River Valley provide an attractive environment.

Of the 600 acres in Jasper Place, only Patricia Heights containing 120 acres is available for immediate development. Of the remaining 480 acres, 80 acres in Westlawn are overlaid by peat and will be expensive to develop and 400 acres south of the Patricia Heights S'ubdivision will require costly utility extensions.

The 5,700 vacant residential lots on subdivided land consist of 4,700 lots in the suburbs and approximately 1,000 lots in the developed

-23-

areas.

Table 10 DISTRIBUTION OF SUBURBAN VACANT LOTS Single and TwoFamily Lots

Area

Serviced Lots

Northeast

2,560

1,700

Southwest

1,940

1,940

200

200

4,700

3,840

West Total

Included in the 4,700 vacant lots are

868 single-family units

under construction as of December 31, 1966. These lots are distributed as follows: 336 in the northeast, 472 in the southwest, and 60 in the west.

B. Suburban Growth Patterns Past growth patterns may be considered as being indicative of future expansion areas. A comparison of suburban growth for the past five years shows a continued trend to residence south of the North Saskatchewan River (see Table 11).

Table 11 SUBURBAN GROTH RATES

Year

North Edmonton %

South Edmonton %

69.3

30.7 37.7 45.7 41.1 53.8

1962 1963

62.3 54.3 58.9

1964 1965 1966

46.2 Source: Civic Census

-2 A detailed breakdown of suburban population growth for the past five years is indicated in Table 12.

Table 12 SUBURBAN POPULATION INCREASES BY AREA

Year

Northeast

%

Southwest

1962 1963 1964 1965

5,623 4,131 8,363 3,836 3,174

46.0 33.0 38.1 34.4 30,3

1,339 1,983 5,108 2,990 4,191

1966 Total

25,127

15,611

Total

Southeast

%

West

11.0 15.9 23.3 26.8

2,406 2,737 4,917 1,596

19.7 21.8 22.4 14.3

2,853 3,674 3,548 2,723

23.3 29.3 16.2 24.5

40.0

1,454

13.8

1,666 14,464

15.9

13,110

100 100 100 100 1°,485 100 12,221 12,525 21,936* 11,145

68,312

*April 1963 to November 1964 Source: Civic Census The northeast area shows a decline in the growth rate, conversely the southwest area shows a continued rising rate of growth. The aesthetic qualities of the southwest topography as compared to the industrial influences in the northeast have in part contributed to this trend.

Growth in the southeast and west areas of the City has noticeably declined due to the lack of available land, particularly in the Ottewell area which is now fully developed.

C. Utility and Roadway Considerations Considering economical utility extensions, the most desirable expansion area is to the northeast, north of 137th Avenue. Sewer mains on 137th Avenue and the new water reservoir and telephone exchange in the Londonderry subdivision will allow economical extension of services north to

25the City limits and beyond.

The Hermitage subdivision may be served by existing sewer and gas mains. All other utility mains including water, power and telephone would have to be extended into this isolated area. A water reservoir would eventually be required to serve the Hermitage and the surrounding area.

Roadway access would require considerable improvements to 50th Street including a railway underpass.

In the southwest area it will be necessary to oonstruct a new storm sewer system to service the area south of 35th Avenue. The Riverbend subdivision is ideally suited for development since water and sewer service mains have already been extended across Whitemud Creek to this area. The existence of a major oil pipeline with a sixty foot right-of-way will present the usual development problems in the southwest area. The Quesnell Bridge, presently under construction, and the 45th Avenue ring-road together with the one-way street connections to a new 105th Street Bridge should serve this area adequately until the South Freeway is constructed.

In Jasper Place, water and sewer service will be available in 1969 for expansion beyond 170th Street. Power and telephone services are presently supplied by Calgary Power and Alberta Government Telephones respectively. The first phase of the Jasper Freeway, presently under construction, should be completed by 1973 and will provide a more direct route to the Central Area.

_26 VI. RESIDENTIAL STAGING A. Staging Method The staging plan is based on the distribution of the projected 12,250 single and two-family dwelling units required in the suburban area by 1971. It is assumed that apartment units staged for suburban areas will be constructed here after an area is partially developed. Since a supply of serviced lots is needed prior to construction, the staging plans indicate when an area should be serviced and not when residential construction would take place. The required serviced lots include a reserve supply of at least one year's demand. The present supply of approximately 3,000 vacant serviced lots is considered an adequate reserve offering a reasonable choice of location for the prospective builder. Table 13 indicates the total yearly requirements of suburban serviced lots. The 3,840 reserve lots for 1966 include

868

lots where housing units are under con-

struction. It is assumed that "Serviced Reserve" for each year will consist of the requirement for each succeeding year plus 850 lots with construction under way. The reduction in "Serviced Reserve" lots after the year 1966 is due to construction in slowly developing neighbourhoods that have been serviced for some time. These include such neighbourhoods as Delwood, Belvedere and Rundle Heights in the northeast area, Westbrook Estates, Aspen Gardens and Riverbend Properties in the southwest area and Quesnell Heights and Buena Vista in the west. The staging program is meant to provide a supply of serviced lots when and where they are needed and thus avoid premature or excess servicing of some areas.

-??

Table 13 REQUIRED SUBURBAN SERVICED LOTS*

Year

Single and Two-Family Units to be Constructed

Lots to be Serviced

Serviced Reserve

2,250 2,350 2,450 2,550 2,650

1,610

3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600

12,250

12,010

3,84o

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

2,450 2,550 2,650 2,750

*All units in two-family zones are considered to be on separate

lots.

Total suburban requirements for the next five years is 12,010 serviced lots. Detailed staging is presented by three schemes representing different expansion considerations. These three schemes are considered in detail and a recommended staging plan encompassing the schemes is outlined.

B. Staging Alternatives 1. Scheme 1 - Existing Expansion Areas This scheme proposes that all growth in the next five years will occur within the present City boundary. Since available areas of expansion are the primary considerations under the scheme, then development will be concentrated almost completely in the northeast and southwest areas.

In the northeast area, the remainder of Steele Heights, Londonderry, Dickinsfield and the Beverly area are staged for development by 1971. Initial development in the Hermitage subdivision is

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KEY THIS PLAN REPRESENTS WHEN UTILITIES WOULD BE INSTALLED

1967

Li

2

1968

3

1969

4

1970

5

1971

Research Report Number 5 RESIDENTIAL STAGING SCHEME I EXISTING EXPANSION AREAS

Drawing City of Edmonton Planning Departnient

- 28 delayed until 1971, due to industrial influences and roadway and service needs.

In the southwest, Duggan and Riverbend subdivisions are staged for development by 1970, followed by additional expansion south of these two subdivisions in 1971.

In the west, expansion is limited by the 170th Street City boundary. Development for the area south of Patricia Heights is delayed due to servicing difficulties. The remaining vacant area located'in Patricia Heights and 'illestlawn will be serviced by 1968. No provision is made for further development in the west for the remaining three years of the program.

Table 14 SCHEME 1-DISTRIBUTION OF RELUIRED SERVICED LOTS

Year NORTHEAST 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 SOUTH WEST 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

Single and Two-Family Units to be Constructed

Lots to be Serviced

Serviced Reserve

1,100

1,44o

6,260

84o 1,200 1,370 1,450 1,500 6,360

910 960 1,010 1,160 1,200 5,240

430 1,040 1,180 1,200 1,250 5,103

1,700

1,14o 1,180 1,390 1,450

1,500 1,690 1,750 1,800

1,940 1,460 1,540 1,710 1,750

1,800 cont.

- 29Table 14 continued:

Lots to be Serviced

Single and Two-Family Units to be Constructed

Year WEST 1966

1967 1968 1969 1970

200 300 260

340

240 250 260

210

750

350

12,250

12,010

Serviced Reserve

1971 TOTAL

2. Scheme 2 - Natural Growth Patterns This scheme is based on suburban growth patterns since 1961 as shown in Table 12, Since development in the southeast area is complete, past trends in this area will be combined with growth in the southwest. The remaining two areas of expansion are the northeast area and the west area, including a portion beyond the City boundary. Due to increasing growth rates in the southwest as compared to decreasing rates in the northeast, the distribution of future growth will be assumed to be an average between the 1966 pattern and the last fiveyear pattern.

Table 15 DISTRIBUTION OF SUBURBAN GROVITH RATES, 1967 - 1971

Period Growth Growth 1961-1966 Average

Northeast

Southwest

30.3% 36.8%

53.8% 42.0%

34.0%

48.0%

West

Total

15.9%

100%

21.2% 18.0%

100% 100%

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KEY THIS PLAN REPRESENTS WHEN UTILITIES WOULD BE INSTALLED

1967 2

1968

3

1969

4

1970

5

1971

Research Report Number 5 RESIDENTIAL STAGING SCHEME 2 NATURAL GROWTH PATTERNS

Drawing

3

City of Edmonton Planning Department ICIC7

_30_ Growth in the northeast area is concentrated in the Steele Heights, Londonderry and Dickinsfield subdivisions to conform with past trends.

In the southwest area, growth is concentrated east of Whitemud Creek where the majority of homes will be in the medium price range. Initial development in Riverbend is staged for 1968 and expansion beyond the south City limits by 1971.

In the west area, all available land for development in Jasper Place will be required in 1967 and expansion west of 170th Street will be necessary at this time.

Table 16 SCHEME 2 - DISTRIBUTION OF REQUIRED SERVICED LOTS

Year NORTHEAST 1966 1967

1968 1969 1970 1971

Single and Two-Family Units to be Constructed

Lots to be Serviced

Serviced Reserve

765

165 820

1,700 1,100 1,120

860

1,150

915 920 3,680

1,200 1,220

800 830 865 900 4,160

SOUTHWEST

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

1,080

680 1,180

1,180

1,220 1,270 1,310 5,660

1,130

1,220 1,270

5,880

1,94o 1,54o 1,590 1,630 1,680 1,720

WEST

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 TOTAL

405 42o 44o 465 48o

765 450 470 465

2,210

520 2,670

12,250

12,010

200 560 590 620 620

660

_31 -

3. Scheme

3 -

Utility and Roadway Considerations

Under this scheme the major expansion area is to the northeast and concentrated north of 137th Avenue to the City Limits where service expansions are most desirable. Development in the Beverly area is delayed until the latter stages due to subdivision and roadway problems.

Development in the southwest area is limited by 35th Avenue where large storm interceptors will be required for additional expansion. Extensive development is anticipated in the Riverbend and Terwillegar Heights subdivisions where the Quesnell Bridge and subsequent 45th Avenue ringroad will stimulate growth.

In the west area, development west of 170th Street.is staged in 1969 when economical extensions of water and sewer mains will be available.

Table 17 SCHEME 3 - DISTRIBUTION OF REQUIRED SERVICED LOTS

Year NORTHEAST 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 SOUTHWEST 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

Single and Two-Family Units to be Constructed

Lots to be Serviced

840

1,100 1,140 1,180 1,150 1,230 5,800

1,200 1,170 1,230 1,280 5,720

910 ,960 1,010 1,000 1,020 4,900

430 1,o4o 980 1,000 1,030 4,480

Serviced Reserve

1,700 1,440 1,500 1,490 1,570 1,620

1,940 1,460 1,54o 1,510 1,510 1,520 cont.

1

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I 967 2

I 968

3

1969

4

1970

5

1971

Research Report Number 5 RESIDENTIAL STAGING SCHEME 3 UTILITY AND ROADWAY CONSIDERATIONS

Drawing

4

City of Edmonton Planning Department

- 32. Table 17 continued:

Year

Single and Two-Family Units to be Constructed

Lots to be Serviced

WEST 1966

1967 1968 1969

240 250

340 210

1970 1971

260 400 400 1,550

400 42o 44o 1,810

TOTAL

12,250

12,010

Serviced Reserve

200 300 260 400

42o 460

C. Summary and Recommendations 1. Summary Suburban single and two-family dwellings for the three schemes of development are distributed as follows: Table 18 SUMMARY OF STAGING SCHEMES Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Existing Natural Utility and Expansion Areas Growth Patterns Roadway Considerations Lots Northeast Southwest West Total Units

6,260 5,240 750 12,250

Lots

51 43 6

4,16o 5,880 2,210 12,250

Lots

34 48 18

5,800 4,900 1,550

47 40 13

12,250

Scheme 1 - Existing Expansion Areas - distributes growth in the northeast and southwest areas. The limited amount of available land in Jasper Place will curtail development in this area by 1968.

-33Scheme 2 - Natural Growth Pattern - directs expansion to the southwest where annexation would be required by 1970. Of the three schemes, this one proposes the largest growth in the west area and would require immediate annexation west of 170th Street.

Scheme

3 - Utility and Roadway Considerations - emphasises

growth to the northeast area where service extensions are most favourable. By 1969 water and sewer facilities will be available for expansion west of Jasper Place, and development here will necessitate further annexation westward at this time.

2. Recommended Residential Expansion The Recommended Detailed Residential Staging Plan and the Recommended General Residential Staging Plan are determined by comparing the relative merits presented by the three staging schemes.

In accordance with Scheme 1, development is contained within the present City boundary with the exception of the west area. Since Schemes 2 and 3 both favour expansion west of 170th Street, development west of Jasper Place is staged for 1969.

Scheme 2 favours the southwest area as the major area of growth whereas Scheme 3 favours the northeast area. Giving slightly greater considerations to the natural growth pattern, the southwest area will contain the largest proportion of growth.

In accordance with growth patterns and utility accessibility, development in the northeast area is concentrated north of 137th Avenue.

Development in the east portion of Steele Heights in delayed to allow

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1967 2

1968

3

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4

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5

1971

Research Report Number 5

RECOMMENDED DETAILED RESIDENTIAL STAGING PLAN

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STAGING AREA 1 967- 1971

Research Report Number !

RECOMMENDED GENERAL RESIDENTIAL STAGING PLAN

Drawing City of Edmonton Planning Department •no 196

time for subdivision negotiations with the various land owners. For the same reason the southwest quarter of Dickinsfield is staged for beyond 1971. The area immediately north of Beverly is hampered by subdivision problems and industrial influences. Development in Abbottsfield is dependent upon completion of the new Beverly Bridge with roadway and interchange connections. The Hermitage is not staged due to its isolation and to allow time to eliminate industrial nuisances in the area.

In the southwest area, extensive development is proposed for the Riverbend and Terwillegar Heights subdivisions. The ease of utility servicing and the completion of the Quesnell Bridge and connecting roadways in 1969 are important factors influencing development in this area. The Duggan subdivision is expected to develop quite rapidly and is staged for completion by 1969. Development south of Petrolia in 1970 will require a new storm drainage system beyond the present City boundary thereby necessitating annexation southward at this time.

In the west area initial development beyond 170th Street is staged for 1969. Growth patterns and utility considerations indicate a preference for expansion in the vicinity of 87th Avenue west of 170th Street. The recommended staging plan represents diagramaticaJly the size and general location of the area required.

The detailed five-year staging plan outlines desired residential expansion on a yearly basis and is subject to revision at any time.

This Plan is to be treated solely as information and is designed

- 35 primarily to assist the utilities departments and school boards in planning their programs.

The Recommended General Staging Plan delineates the amount of land that will be required in the suceeding five-year period and indicates the general direction of growth. In order to ensure the orderly development of residential land, it is recommended that City Council adopt the Recommended General Staging Plan.

Table 19 RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION OF GROWTH

Single and TwoFamily Units

Suburban Area Northeast Southwest West Total

4o

4,900 5,800 1,550

47 13

12,250

100

Table 20 RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION OF REQUIRED SERVICED LOTS

Year

Single-Family and Two-Family Units

Required Serviced Lots

Serviced Reserve

NORTHEAST

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 SOUTHWEST 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971

1,700

910 960 1,010 1,000 1 020 4,900

1,100 1,140 1,180 1,150 1,230 5,800

670

1,040 980 1,000 1,030 4,720

600 1,200 1,170 1,230 1,280 5,480

1,460 1,540 1,510 1,510 1,520

1,94o 1,44o 1,500 1,490 1,570 1,620 cont.

-36Table 20 continued:

Year

Single-Family and Two-Family Units

Required Serviced Lots

WEST 1966

1967 1968

1969 1970 1971 TOTAL

240 250 260 400 400 1,550

340 210 400 420 440 1,810

12,250

12,010

Serviced Reserve 200 300 260 4o0 420 460

RESIDENTIAL LAND USE STAGING RESEARCH REPORT No. 5

JUNE 1967