Edmonton (Alta.) - 1983 - Annual staging report 1983 (1983-10) by Edmonton Tower Resource Centre Online Library

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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

STAGING FRAMEWORK • Background Purpose Basis of the Staging System City Sectors

2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

DATA INPUT Demand Data Supply Data Degree of Development Agricultural Conservation Fiscal Impact Assessment Resource Development Environmental Hazards

3.0 3.1 3.2

FINDINGS Suburban Area Findings Sector Analysis

•

3.2.1 North East Sector

3.3

3.4

4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4

3.2.2 North Central Sector 3.2.3 West Sector 3.2.4 South West Sector 3.2.5 South East Sector Associated Issues Planning Department 3.3.1 Development Constraints LIEUIZY 3.3.2 Housing Mix 3.3.3 Serviced Lots The Ciiy of E-4, ,r.onton 3.3.4 Inventory Levels Staging Framework Analysis 3.4.1 Comparative Evaluation of Criteria 3.4.2 Dwelling Unit Absorption Changes 3.4.3 Target Inventory 3.4.4 Sector Boundaries 3.4.5 Simplication of System 3.4.6 Responsiveness to Market Conditions 3.4.7 Development Industry Liaison Committee Discussion CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS Residential Land Inventory Subdivided and Serviced Lots Inventory Associated Issues Staging Methodology as a Guide

APPENDICES

LIST OF MAPS PAGE

City Sector Boundaries

•

Residential Land Inventory in Years

•

LIST OF FIGURES

GMP Chart 5.5

GMP Chart 5.6

Staging Demand Data Input

Projected Annual Absorption Rates

Staging Supply Data Input

Northeast Sector Target Inventories

Northeast Sector Staging Criteria Summary

North Central Sector Target Inventories

North Central Sector Staging Criteria Summary

10.

West Sector Target Inventories

11.

West Sector Staging Criteria Summary

12.

Southwest Sector Target Inventories

13.

Southwest Sector Staging Criteria Summary

14.

Southeast Sector Target Inventories .

15.

Southeast Sector Staging Criteria Summary

•

LIST OF TABLES

Northeast Sector Inventory

North Central Sector Inventory

West Sector Inventory

Southwest Sector Inventory

Southeast Sector Inventory

Housing Mix

SUMMARY

This staging report, as required in the GMP, is the first annual report which details the supply and demand of residential land in suburban Edmonton.

Conclusions

•

There is a 25.6 year total supply of lands for potential residential development in approved and/or authorized Area Structure Plans in the City, well in excess of the minimum GMP target of 10 years;

•

The North Central, West and Southwest Sectors of the City each have a total supply in excess of 30 years;

The supply of residential land for each housing type in all City Sectors is well above

the GMP target of 5 years; and •

The supply of subdivided single family/semi-detached lots in the Southeast Sector and the supply of subdivided and serviced single_ family/semi-detached lots in the Northeast Sector has fallen slightly below the GMP targets of 2 years and 1.5 years respectively.

Recommendations

•

No further residential Area Structure Plans be authorized by Council in the City at this time;

•

Developers be alerted to the potential shortage of single-family and semi-detached lots in the Southeast and Northeast Sectors and be encouraged to register new lots in these areas via plan of subdivision;

1 •

City administration expedite the servicing of the above referenced lots; and

•

City administration continue to monitor closely the supply of subdivided and serviced lots in the Southeast and Northeast Sectors.

2 1.0

STAGING FRAMEWORK

1.1

BACKGROUND

Following the Provincial Government's annexation decision announcement in June of 1981, a major review of the General Municipal Plan's growth strategy was undertaken. In this review, the issue of residential staging in the annexed areas was addressed by comparing alternative strategies with and without a "staging policy". The studies indicated that a staged residential development program could reduce costs for tax-supported public services in the annexed area by about 15-20% during 1981 - 1996 (Urban Growth Strategy - Final Report, Page 13). In addition, staging would promote more rapid infilling of suburban districts already under development in the existing 1981 City, as well as the annexed area. This would help prevent a repetition of the problems experienced with the timing and cost of services for suburban areas in the 1970's. The Urban Growth Strategy staging recommendations were later incorporated into the General Municipal Plan through Bylaw 6904. Policy 5.F.1 in Volume 1, Part III of the General Municipal Plan states that: "The City will authorize the staged preparation of new residential Area Structure Plans in sub .urban areas as required by population growth and housing demand. A review of the land supply will be conducted annually and additional Area Structure Plans will be authorized where warranted by the criteria set out in Chart 5.6." The GMP policies require that an Annual Staging Report be produced which analyzes residential land supply and demand and indicates if the authorization of new Area Structure Plans is required in any part of the City. Charts 5.5 and 5.6 specify inventory levels and provide for the analysis of environmental and fiscal constraints in order to pinpoint the most logical location for Area Structure Plan authorizations which are most in keeping with the provisions of the GMP. When the Staging Report indicates that additional residential areas are required, an amendment of GMP, Map 17.3 "Areas suitable for Area Structure Plans" (see Appendix 1) and Map 21, "The Growth Strategy" would allow for additional Area Structure Plan Authorization(s).

Purpose

1.2

The purpose of the staging approach is:

to identify and evaluate the supply and demand of residential land for potential dwelling units in suburban Area Structure Plans;

to ensure the existence of an adequate supply of land for potential dwelling units: 1.

in approved and authorized Area Structure Plans and;

on serviced and subdivided lots; and

to rationalize the pattern of residential growth, in suburban Area Structure Plan areas, through fiscal impact assessment and the evaluation of environmental hazards, non-renewable resource extraction and agricultural lands.

The result of each Annual Staging Report will be recommendations regarding the adequacy of vacant residential land supplies, as well as the need for and location of new residential Area Structure Plan authorizations.

The staging approach, in keeping with the policy requirements of the GMP, is intended to assess the supply of residential land in all sectors of the City and to act as a guide for City Council in the residential approvals process.

1.3 BASIS OF THE STAGING SYSTEM

Charts 5.5 and 5.6, in the GMP, which were adopted by Council in Bylaw 6904 and are attached as Figures 1 and 2, are the basis of the staging system. Chart 5.5 specifies inventory targets which are designed to ensure adequate supplies of residential land for each housing type in each City Sector. Inventory targets as contained in Chart 5.5 for the four approval categories, are as follows:

Inventory Target

Criteria

Total City-wide inventory of vacant residential land

â&#x20AC;˘

10 years

in approved or authorized ASPs. b)

Vacant residential land for each housing type in each City Sector

5 years

in approved or authorized ASPs. c)

Vacant residential land for each housing type in registered

2 years

subdivisions in each City Sector. d)

Vacant residential land for each housing type in registered and

1.5 years

serviced subdivisions in each City sector.

The GMP requires that new Area Structure Plan(s) be authorized when the inventory in a) or b) above drops below the target. When the inventory is less than the target in c) or d), more subdivision registration and/or servicing activity is encouraged. If not met, the City-wide and Sector targets of ten and five years, specified in GMP Chart 5.6, warn of a potentially inadequate supply of residential land at the Area Structure Plan approval level. An additional indicator of supply shortfalls is the percentage of potential units in each dwelling unit type, completed in each sector. If 75% or more of the potential units in one housing category is absorbed, the authorization of an additional Area Structure Plan in the sector is favoured. The staging approach emphasizes the Area Structure Plan level of approval/authorization as the critical phase in the residential development process. Area Structure Plan authorization is the first major step in the development process and is a logical point for the control of residential development through staging. If it is determined that additional residential land is required in a City sector, then the second part of Chart 5.6 addresses the, location of Area Structure Plan authorization. Four objectives are used to guide new residential authorizations:

FIGURE 1. THE GENERAL MUNICIPAL PLAN. CHART 5.5: RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TARGETS GEOGRAPHIC SCALE

INVENTORY TARGET

APPROVAL AND SF.RV ICING STATS

City

10 years

All lands in approved or authorized Area Structure Plans.

Sector (a)

5 years

Sector (a)

MEASUREMENT CRITERIA

DEGREE OF CONINI ITM ENT

IMPLEMENTATION

The total area of vacant residential land within all approved and authorized Area Structure Plans in the City must be sufficient to accommodate a population at least equal to the projected population increase of the City over the next 10 years.

Binding

Authorization of Additional Area Structure Plans.

All lands in approved or authorized Area Structure Plans.

The total area of vacant residential land in all approved and authorized Area Structure Plans in the Sector must be sufficient to accommodate at least 5 years of dwelling unit construction in each dwelling category, based on actual absorption rates.

Binding

Authorization of Additional Area Structure Plans.

2 years

All lands in registered subdivision plans.

The total supply of land available for each dwelling category in registered subdivisions in the Sector at the start of the construction season should be sufficient to accommodate at least 2 years of dwelling unit construction in that category. based on actual absorption rates.

Non-binding

Dissemination of information on the declining inventory, to encourage more plan registration activity.

1.5 years

Serviced lands in registered subdivision

The supply of serviced lots and sites available for each dwelling category in

Non-binding

plans.

â&#x20AC;˘

1 1

registered subdivisions in the Sector at the start of the construction season should be sufficient to accommodate at least 1.5 years of dwelling unit construction in that category. based on actual absorption rates.

Dissemination of

information on the declining inventory, to encourage more servicing activity.

_ Notes (a) Sectors are as defined in Map 5.1 (b) Dwelling categories are the three basic dwelling types: I. Single and semi-detached units: 2. Ground related multiple family units: and 3. Apartment units. (c) Actual absorption rate refers to the annual average number of units of that category approved by building permits in that Sector during the previous three years.

I I I I I I I I .1. I p 1 I 1 I I $

â&#x20AC;˘1 FIGURE 2. THE GENERAL MUNICIPAL PLAN. CHART 5.6: STAGING CRITERIA IMPLICATIONS

MEASUREMENT OR ASSESSNIENT CRITERIA

REQUIRES AUTHORIZATION

FAVOURS AUTHORIZATION

NEUTRAL IMPLICATION

MITIGATES AGAINST AUTHORIZATION

RULES OUT AUTHORIZATION

Maintain 10Year Land Supply CityWide

Expected life of the total vacant land supply in all approved and authorized Area Structure Plans combined, measured by calculating the potential population on all remaining vacant lands, and dividing this by the projected population increase of the city over the next 10 years.

Less than 10 years' supply city-wide (c)

Not applicable

Maintain 5-Year Land Supply in each Sector (a)

Expected life of the remaining inventory of potential dwelling units in each category (b) in the Sector, based on the average annual absorption recorded over the previous 3 years.

Less than 5 years' supply in any one category (c)

Less than 10 years' supply in at least two categories

Less than 10 years' supply in any one category

At least 10 years' supply in all three categories

At least 15 years' supply in all three categories

Promote Completion of Communities Already under Development

Percentage of total potential dwelling units in the Sector (d) aiready completed.

Not applicable

At least 75% complete in at least one category

50-75% complete in at least one category

Less than 50% complete in all three categories

Less than 25% complete in all three categories

Encourage

Agricultural potential rating

Not applicable

Secondary

Primary

Not applicable

Agricultural

identified in the General

Agricultural

Conservation

Municipal Plan.

Land

Management Area

Area

OBJECTIVE

â&#x20AC;˘ Not applicable

Management

Minimize Fiscal Impact

Projected per capita costs for taxsupported services in the area compared with the projected average cost for all remaining potential Area Structure Plans. To include capital costs, plus operating costs over the first 15 years. for arterial roadway improvements, roadway maintenance, transit service, police and fire protection, social services, parks and recreation, libraries, and schools.

Not applicable

Less than 85% of average

85-115% of average

More than 115% of average

Not applicable

Maximize Resource Development

Presence or absence of economically recoverable nonrenewable resources such as oil and gas or sand and gravel.

Not applicable

Absence of resources

Presence of resources

Not applicable

Minimize Exposure to Hazards

Presence or absence of hazards from airport approaches, or from railroads or pipelines used to transport dangerous goods such as high vapour pressure fuels or corrosive chemicals.

Not applicable

Absence of hazards

Presence of hazards

Not applicable

Notes (a) The Sectors are shown in Map 5.1 (b) Three Basic categories of dwelling types are used: 1. Single and semi-detached units: 2. Ground related multiple family units; and 3. Apartment units. (c) If this situation exists, the highest priority for staging will be assigned to the area which rates the best on the remaining criteria. (d) Based on the ultimate housing stock of all those Plan areas within the Sector which still have vacant land for at least one dwelling category. Plans already 100% complete in all three categories not included. (e) Even if authorization of an Area Structure Plan is not warranted by the criteria outlined above, authorization may be appropriate if there are other unforeseen circumstances which are preventing or inhibiting the construction of housing in the Sector and could be alleviated by authorizing another Area Structure Plan.

7 a)

Encourage agricultural conservation;

Minimize fiscal impact;

Maximize depletion of existing resource development; and

Minimize exposure to hazards.

These objectives not only assist in identifying the best location for a new Area Structure Plan within a Sector, but highlight potential planning problems at an early stage. A further explanation of these objectives as well as the methodologies used to determine supply/demand and degree of development are contained in Chapter 2 and the Appendix. A step by step technical guide for the preparation of the Annual Staging Report is also

available in order to facilitate the preparation of future staging reports.

1.4

CITY SECTORS

The staging approach solely addresses development in new areas, while redevelopment in the inner city is not documented. The potential new development areas are delineated on Map 1, which is taken from GMP Map 5.1. The five city sectors identified contain approved and/or authorized Area Structure Plans as well as raw unauthorized land. The inventory of potential dwelling units, by unit type, is reported on the basis of these city sectors. Detailed analysis by sector is included in Chapter 3.

I I

MAP 1. CITY SECTOR BOUNDARIES ANNUAL STAGING REPORT

EM3

Inner City New Development Areas City Sectors

Source: Residential Policy Areas GMP MAP 5.1

DATA INPUT

The information and calculations required to fuel the staging approach are complicated. These data inputs are briefly outlined here. A more detailed explanation can be found in the Appendices and the Staging Technical Guide. All data, where possible, have been calculated as of 1982 12 31.

The need for new Area Structure Plan â&#x20AC;˘authorizations is established using demand and supply data as well as data which describes the degree of development as outlined in Sections 2.1-2.3. Once the need for additional residential land has been established, four guidelines are used to determine where new residential land authorizations should be. These objectives are: agricultural conservation, fiscal impact assessment, resource development and environmental hazards. These objectives are outlined in Sections 2.4-2.7.

2.1

DEMAND DATA

The staging methodology requires the preparation of annual housing unit absorption rates by unit type and sector. These figures were prepared using the housing start forecast contained in the Strategic Planning Guide 1983, page 8. The 9,111 starts in 1982, in the entire City, were expected to decline to 7,000 in 1983, then average 9,000 units per year until 1988. In fact, housing starts for the first half of 1983 were just over 3,000 units, a pace slightly less than predicted but of a similar magnitude. The use of this City housing start forecast is a slight departure from the prescribed approach in the GMP which bases demand solely on the average annual absorption rate over the last three years. The use of a housing demand forecast, as opposed to past trends, makes the staging approach more reflective of future housing requirements, especially in light of recent fluctuations in housing starts.

For the purpose of the staging report an average number of annual housing unit starts to 1986, taken from the Strategic Planning Guide, was used. Based on Urban Growth Strategy housing projections, it was assumed that 75% of City-wide apartment starts would . occur in the inner city. It was further assumed, based on the Urban Growth Strategy, that the construction of inner city apartments would require the demolition of 300 single and semi units per year and that these units would be replaced in the new development areas.

The housing unit mix for the suburban Area Structure Plan area is as assumed in the Urban Growth Strategy. This mix, combined with the Strategic Planning Guide housing unit projection, yields an annual new development unit type absorption in Area Structure Plan areas to 1986 of:

UNITS TYPE

ANNUAL ABSORPTION

Single/Semi

3,700 units

Ground Related Multiple

1,300 units

Apartments

1,000 units

TOTAL

6,000 units

This housing unit total using this method is 765 units higher than the annual average in new development areas over. 1980 - 1982 with a greater emphasis on singles and semis (see Appendix, Table A6).

The distribution of this projected housing unit absorption rate among the City sectors was

calculated in proportion to the actual distribution of building permits issued in each sector over 1980 - 1982. Recent absorption rates, were considered to be the best available indicator of future absorption distribution.

FIGURE 3. STAGING DEMAND DATA INPUT Strategic

Planning Guide Housing Starts Projection

Distribute According to Percent Absorption Rates

Yields Projected Absorption by Sector

.1â&#x2013; 011.

Northeast

umelita.

North Central

â&#x2013; 11110.

West

=smear

Southwest Southeast

Subtract Inner City Apartment Starts

The housing unit demand methodology is illustrated in Figure 3. Figure 4 shows the projected annual absorption rate by City Sector Detailed projected annual absorption rates are shown in Appendix Table A7.

FIGURE 4. PROJECTED ANNUAL ABSORPTION RATES HOUSING UNITS 6000

4000

--I--

2000

North

East

Central

West

South West

South

Tout]

East

SECTOR

2.2

SUPPLY DATA

The supply of land for residential uses is made up of three components:

Subdivided lots in approved Area Structure Plans;

Raw land (unsubdivided) in approved Area Structure Plans as well as Outline Plans and other Council approved plans. These plans are Clairview /Hermitage, Casselman/Steele Heights, Kaskitayo, Lake District, Meadows, Mill Woods, Castledowns South, Pilot Sound, Riverbend, Twin Brooks and West Jasper Place; and

Raw land in areas that have been authorized for Area Structure Plan preparation by City Council. These areas are: Castle Downs North, Terwillegar, Lewis Farms, Parkland, Edmonton Northwest, Blackmud Creek and Ellerslie.

This supply of residential land is available by housing type and City Sector and is used to calculate the total inventory of potential residential units both City-wide (10 year target inventory in GMP) and by City sector (5 year target inventory in GMP). Detailed supply data is shown in Appendix Tables A1-A5. The supply data inputs are illustrated in Figure 5.

FIGURE 5. STAGING SUPPLY DATA INPUT Potential Dwelling Units In

Subdivided Lots

Approved A.S.P.'S

Authorized A.S.P.'S

M=O IIIIN

Total supply of potential dwelling units

GMP Chart 5.5 establishes minimum target inventories for the supply of subdivided and serviced lots by City Sector. The potential supply of units on subdivided lots as well as the portion of this supply which is serviced with water and sanitary sewer facilities is

provided on Appendix Table A10. 2.3

DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT

The second indicator of the supply adequacy of residential land in each City Sector is the percentage of potential units of each dwelling type in each City Sector which has been completed. This indicator is calculated using the total residential inventory above and the data on building permit issuance contained in the Status of Residential Land 1982 report. Degree of development data are shown in Appendix Table 12 and discussed in Chapter 3.

2.4

AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION

The General Municipal Plan, Volume II, Policy Report 17, contains a number of policies

which stress the continued use of agriculture areas until such time that these areas are required for urban development. The staging approach to residential approvals reflects these policies and promotes continued agriculture production until the lands are required for urban uses. GMP Map 14.1 (see Appendix) shows the location of Primary and

Secondary Agricultural Land Management Areas. GMP Chart 5.6 indicates that the presence of Primary Agricultural Land Management Areas mitigates against Area Structure Plan approval. The intent of this principle is that the conservation of agricultural lands be considered prior to residential approval decisions and that primary agricultural land management areas be the last to be authorized for residential uses.

Planning Department staff are preparing a report on the viability of the Agriculture Land Management Areas. This report is scheduled for completion in late 1983 and will make recommendations regarding the implementation of the agricultural conservation policies of the GMP.

2.5

FISCAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

The second locational guideline is the minimization of fiscal impact upon the City. This criterion requires comparison of the capital and operating costs of future tax supported

services among potential Area Structure Plan areas. Costs associated with arterial roadway improvement, roadway maintenance, water supply, sewers, transit services, social services, parks, recreation, libraries, schools, police and fire protection will be included. It is anticipated that the assessment of the comparative fiscal cost of various growth directions could result in considerable savings to the city over the medium to long term.

The specific staging criteria "favours" authorization of Area Structure Plans which have a fiscal impact of less than 85% of average costs and "mitigates against" authorization of Plans with a fiscal impact greater than 115% of the average.

Planning Department staff are preparing a fiscal impact model which is capable of assessing the comparative cost of new development both City-wide and by Sector.. The use of this model will be an integral part of the staging approach to residential approvals.

2.6

RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

The staging approach encourages the depletion of non-renewable resources such as oil, gas, coal, sand and gravel prior to development. The approach considers the presence of such resources as a factor which mitigates against Area Structure Plan Development

authorizations.

The presence of non-renewable resources is documented in the

Development Constraints Study associated with the Urban Growth Strategy.

2.7

ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS

The presence of potential environmental hazards mitigate against Area Structure Plan authorization. Environmental hazards include high vapour pressure product pipelines which have a potential for explosions. Proximity to airport flight paths and railway lines under rare circumstances may be considered an environmental hazard but usually these activities can be accommodated through good planning design.

A staff report, expected in late 1983, concerning the interface between pipelines and residential land use will address this environmental hazard issue directly in terms of safety and pipeline integrity.

3.0

FINDINGS

The report findings are divided into four sections: Suburban Area Findings, Sector Analysis, Associated Issues and Stagina Framework Analysis. 3.1

SUBURBAN AREA FINDINGS

GMP Charts 5.5 and 5.6 specify that a supply of residential land capable of absorbing a 10 year demand of dwelling units be available at all times. The supply of residential land in the City's suburban Area Structure Plans (authorized and approved) is capable of supporting 153, 340 potential residential units (see Appendix Tables A5 and A8). The projected annual absorption of all housing units in the suburban Area Structure Plans is 6,000 units per year. At the projected annual absorption rate, the City has a 25.6 years supply of residential land for all housing types.

The supply inventory of potential dwelling unit by housing unit type is:

Supply of

Potential Units

Inventory

Singles/Semi-Detached

81,780

22.1 years

Ground Related Multiples

32,128

24.7 years

Apartments

39 432

39.4 years

TOTAL

153,340

25.6 years

The supply of all subdivided lots in the City can accommodate 32,185 potential dwelling units or a 5.4 year supply. Some 31,900 of these potential dwelling units on subdivided lots are serviced, representing a 5.3 year supply. In the suburban Area Structure Plans 59,311 dwelling units have been built to date (see Appendix Table Al2). This represents 28% of the total potential dwelling units in the new development areas of the City, leaving 72% of the total potential dwelling units in the City's authorized or approved Area Structure Plans unbuilt.

In summary, there is an inventory of potential dwelling units, in the suburban Area Structure Plans in the City, well in excess of the GMP minimum staging guidelines (see Appendix Table A9). At projected development rates additional residential approvals would not be built upon until after the year 2005. In addition, a large proportion, 72 percent of residential lands, in all approved and authorized Area Structure Plans, remains vacant. These totals do not include long term potential residential areas in the south and northeast nor the inner city.

3.2

SECTOR ANALYSIS

GMP Charts 5.5 and 5.6 require that a five-year supply of land for each housing unit type be maintained in each of the five City Sectors. The GMP further encourages the maintenance of a minimum two year supply of subdivided lots for each dwelling type in each City Sector and a 1.5 year supply of serviced land for each dwelling type in each City Sector which is both subdivided and provided with water and sanitary sewer services.

Following is an analysis of the supply, demand and target inventories in each City Sector

(see Map 2). Each City Sector is accompanied by two Figures which evaluate the Sector in terms of GMP Charts 5.5 and 5.6.

3.2.1 Northeast Sector

The

Northeast

sector

contains

the

outline

plans

Clareview/Hermitage/Casselman/Steele Heights and the approved Area Structure Plan of Pilot Sound. The supply of total potential dwelling units in the Sector is 13,257 units. The actual average annual absorption between 1980 - 1982 was 938 units perannum in the Northeast sector. Projected annual absorption to 1986 is 1021 units per year.

Table 1 shows the supply of potential dwelling units, projected annual absorption and the inventory in years by dwelling unit type.

MAP 2. RESIDENTIAL LAND INVENTORY IN YEARS ANNUAL STAGING REPORT

2. NORTHEAST SECTOR

1. NORTH CENTRAL SECTOR

. Unit Type

Percent Completed

I SS GRM APT

26% 27% 18%

Designated Inventory

28.3 26.1 59.5

I I

Serviced Inventory

Unit Type

Percent Completed

Designated Inventory

2.8 4.5 4.7

SS GRM APT

39% 44% 48%

13.1 15.8 10.1

1.4 8.4 1.2

WEST SECTOR

SOUTHWEST SECTOR

Designated Inventory

Serviced Inventory

Unit Type

Percent Completed

Designated Inventory

Serviced Inventory

29.6 25.1 49.0

3.3 3.3 15.3

SS GRM APT

19% 28% 34%

36.1 30.7 53.8

4.7 6.1 19.1

Unit Type

Percent Completed

Designated Inventory

Serviced Inventory

Unit Type

Percent Completed

Designated Inventory

Serviced Inventory

I SS I GRM

37% 34% 25%

22.1 24.7 39.4

2.4 6.! 15.0

SS GRM APT

33% 31% 12%

15.5 26.4 52.3

1.6 7.1 27.2

Unit Type

Percent Completed

SS GRM APT

19% 40% 31%

, I

CITY OF EDMONTON

I AFT SS:

Denutes single and semi-detached units

GRM: Denotes ground related multiple family units. such as fourplexes. rowhouses and stacked rowhouses APT:

Denotes apartment units

SOUTHEAST SECTOR

TABLE 1

Dwelling

Northeast Sector Inventory

Projected

Total Supply Inventory

Unit

Annual

of Potential

Type

Absorption

Units

Supply of

Potential Subdivided

Inventory of Subdivided

Units in

Serviced

and Serviced

Years

Lots

Lots in Years

461

6,183

13.4.

648

1.4

Ground Related Multiples 248

3,925

15.8

2080

8.4

312

3,149

10.1

1304

4.7

1,021

13.257

13.0

4032

3.9

Singles/Semis

Apartments

TOTAL

Appendix Tables A10 and All show the detailed supply and inventory in years of potential dwelling units on subdivided lots as well as potential units for subdivided and serviced lots.

In the Northeast sector, all subdivided lots are serviced. The total number of potential serviced units is 4,032, a 3.9 year supply, however, the total inventory of serviced lots for

singles and semis is only 648, a 1.4 year supply which is below the minimum recommended target, of 1.5 years, for this type of inventory.

Fifty-seven percent of the total potential dwelling units in the Sector remain unbuilt. Each dwelling unit type has an unbuilt inventory of greater than 50 percent (see Appendix Table 12).

All of the Northeast sector is a Primary Agriculture Land Management area. The sector is criss-crossed by a number of pipelines, two of which are high vapour pressure lines. Both of these locational criteria would mitigate against authorization of further residential lands if a need was present in the sector.

In conclusion, the inventory of potential unit is well in excess of the five-year minimum target in all dwelling unity 'types. However, the inventory of subdivided serviced lots is below the 1.5 year inventory target for singles and semis.

FIGURE 6. 1983 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TARGETS NORTHEAST SECTOR CRITERIA

TARGET

UNIT TYPE

ADEQUATE SUPPIA

Total Potential Units

5 years

S/S GRM APT

13.4 yrs 15.8 yrs 10.1 yrs

Subdivided Potential Units

2 years

S/S GRM APT

8.4 yrs 4.2 yrs

Serviced and Subdivided Potential Units

1.5 years

S/S

GRM

8.4 yrs

APT

4.2 yrs

SHORTFALL

ACTION

No Further A.S.P. Authorizations Required

1.4 yrs

Encourage more Registration Activity

1.4 yrs

Encourage more Lot Servicing Activity

FIGURE 7. 1983 STAGING REPORT CRITERIA SUMMARY NORTHEAST SECTOR MITIGATES AGAINST

RULES OUT

<10 years in one category

>10 >ears

>15 years in three categories

>75% in one or more category

50-75% in one or more category

categories

<25% in all categories

Secondary Land Management

PrirnaryLand

CRITERIA

OBSERVED VALUE

REQUIRES

FAVOURS

City Wide Land Supply

25.6 years

<10 years

Sector Land Supply

S/S 13.4 yrs GRM 15.8 yrs APT 10.1 yrs

<5 years in one category

<10 years in 2 or 3 categories

Degree of Development

S/S 39% GRM 44% APT 48%

Primary Land Management lob%

NEUTRAL

71.

Po tent ia lA. S. P. 's t

Agricultural Conservation

Fiscal Impact

Information Not Yet Available

Resources Hazards

Minagement

Potentially Dangerous Pipelines

Yes No

* Existing Residential Lands include subdivided lots and raw land in both approved and authorized area structure plans. t Potential A.S.P.'s encompass annexed lands on which no A.S.P.'s are now authorized.

NA NA

3.2.2

North Central Sector

The North Central sector contains the approved Area Structure Plans of the Lake District and Castle Downs South as well as the authorized Area Structure Plans of Castle Downs North and Edmonton Northwest.

The supply of potential dwelling units in the sector is 27,160 units. The actual average absorption between 1980 - 1982 was 766 units per year. Projected annual ab.sorption to 1986 is 880 units per year.

Table 2 shows the supply of potential dwelling units, projected annual absorption and inventory in years by dwelling unit type.

TABLE 2

North Central Sector Inventory

Dwelling

Projected

Unit Types

Singles/Semis

â&#x20AC;˘

Ground Related Multiples Apartments

TOTAL

Total Supply Inventory

Annual

of Potential

Absorption

Units

Supply of

Potential Subdivided

Inventory of Subdivided

Units in

Serviced

and Serviced

Years

Lots

Lots in Years

16,101

28.3

1594

2.8

223

5,826

26.1

1002

4.5

5,233

59.5

409

4.7

880

27.160

30.7

3005

3.4

569

â&#x20AC;˘

The supply of potential dwelling units on land already

subdivided and serviced is 3,005, or an identical 3.4 years supply. The supply by dwelling unit types is well above the target inventories. The inventory of subdivided and serviced lots for single family and semi-detached dwelling units is 2.8 years. This is virtually all the lots of this type that can be serviced without major new water and sanitary trunks

FIGURE 8. 1983 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TARGETS NORTH CENTRAL SECTOR SHORTFALL

I ACCION

CRITERIA

TARGET

UNIT TYPE

ADEQUATE SUPPLY

Total Potential Units

5 years

S/S GRM APT

28.3 yrs 26.1 yrs 59.5 yrs

No Further A.S.P. Authorizations Required

Subdivided Potential Units

2 years

S/S GRM APT

2.9 yrs 4.5 yrs 4.7 yrs

No Action

Services and Subdivided Potential Units

1.5 years

S/S GRM APT

2.8 yrs 4.5 yrs 4.7 yrs

No Action

FIGURE 9. 1983 STAGING REPORT CRITERIA SUMMARY NORTH CENTRAL SECTOR

to)

MITIGATES AGAINST

RULES OUT

<10 years in one category

>10 years in three categories

categories

>75% in one or more category

50-75% in one or more category

categones

Secondary Land Management

CRITERIA

OBSERVED VAI.UE

REQUIRES

FAVOURS

City Wide Land Supply

25.6 years

<10 years

Sector Land Supply

28.3 yrs S/S GRM 26.1 yrs 59.5 yrs APT

<5 years in one category

<10 years in 2 or 3 categories

Degree of Development

S/S 26% GRM 27% 18% APT

Agricultural Conservation

None Present

NEUTRAL

â&#x20AC;&#x201D;a t,

-a

Pote nt ia l A. S. rs t

><-

Fiscal Impact

<25% in all categories

Primary Land Management

Potentially Dangerous Pipeline

Yes

all

hree.

Information Not Yet Available

Resources

Hazards

which will service both the North Central and Northeast sectors. These major capital facilities will take 18 months to construct. Given the required construction time, the combined inventory in these two sectors (i.e. 2.2 years) will be virtually exhausted without the construction of these major servicing trunks.

Seventy-five percent of the total potential dwelling units in the sector remain unbuilt. Each dwelling unit type has an unbuilt inventory of greater than 73 percent (see Appendix Table 12).

The North Central sector has at least one pipeline licensed for high vapour pressure transmission. The North Central Sector has no further lands available for Area Structure Plan authorizations.

In conclusion, the inventory of authorized and/or approved potential dwelling units in the North Central sector is well above all GMP inventory targets. The inventory of serviced and subdivided lots for single and semi detached units in the sector is below target. -

3.2.3

West Sector

The West sector contains the approved Outline Plan of West Jasper Place and the authorized Area Structure Plans of Lewis Farms and Parkland.

The supply of potential dwelling units in the sector is 32,655 units. The actual annual absorption between 1980 - 1982 was 908 units per year.

1986 is 1,035 units per year.

Projected annual absorption to

FIGURE 10. 1983 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TARGETS WEST SECTOR SHORTFALL

ACTION

CRITERIA

TARGET

UNIT TYPE

ADEQUATE SUPPLY

Total Potential Units

5 years

S/S GRM APT

29.6 yrs 25.1 yrs 49.0 yrs

No Further A.S.P. Authorizations Required

Subdivided Potential Units

2 years

S/S GRM APT

3.3 yrs 3.3 yrs 15.3 yrs

No Action

Serviced and Subdivided Potential Units

1.5 years

S/S GRM APT

3.3 yrs 3.3 yrs 15.3 yrs

No Action

Ex is t ing Res ide n t ia lLands *

FIGURE 11. 1983 STAGING REPORT CRITERIA SUMMARY WEST SECTOR OBSERVED VALUE

City Wide Land Supply

25.6 years

<10 years

Sector Land Supply

29.6 yrs S/S GRM 25.1 yrs APT 49.0 yrs

<5 years in one category

19% S/S GRM 40% APT 31%

Secondary in NW (30%) Primary in SW (70%)

Degree of Development

Agricultural Conservation

Pote nt ia l A. S. R 's t

REQUIRES

CRITERIA

Hazards

NEUTRAL

<10 years

in 2 or 3 categories

<10 years in one category

MITIGATES AGAINST

RULES OUT

>10 years in three categories

................ . . . <25% in all

>75% in one or more category

50-75% in one or more category

Secondary .h.PrIrnarytand Management Land Management.

......

categories

Acheson and Armisie Oil Fields (Further study needed) Sand & gravel in S.W.

Yes

Information Not Yet Available

Fiscal Impact Resources

FAVOURS

Table 3 shows the supply of potential dwelling units, projected annual absorption and inventory in years by dwelling unit type.

West Sector Inventory

TABLE 3

Dwelling

Projected

Total Supply Inventory

Unit

Annual

of Potential

Type

Absorption

Units

Supply of Inventory of

Potential Subdivided Units in

Subdivided

Serviced and Serviced

Years

Lots

Lots in Years

623

18,449

29.6

2042

3.3

Ground Related Multiples 250

6,267

25.1

813

3.3

162

7,939

49.0

2483

15.3

1,035

32,655

31.6

5340

5.2

Singles/Semis

Apartments

TOTAL

Appendix Tables A10 and All show the detailed supply and inventory in years of potential dwelling units on subdivided lots as well as potential units on subdivided and serviced lots. The supply of potential dwelling units on subdivided lots is 5,383 units and on subdivided and serviced lots is 5,340 units both of which represent an inventory of 5.2 years. The supply of subdivided and serviced residential land for each dwelling type is well above GMP target inventories.

Seventy-three percent of the total potential dwelling units in the sector remain unbuilt. Each dwelling unit type has an unbuilt inventory of greater than 60 percent (see Appendix Table 12).

The southerly portion of the West Sector, or approximately 70% of the sector, is designated as Primary Agricultural Land Management Area. The northern portion of the sector is a Secondary Agricultural Land Management Area. Non-renewable resources present in the area include the Acheson and Armisie oil fields and sand and gravel deposits in the southern portion of the sector. The economic viability of these resources requires further study in order to determine if they should mitigate against residential development authorizations.

I I I I I I I I I I I

a I I I I I I I

In conclusion, the inventory of potential dwelling units in the west sector is well above all target inventories in the GMP.

3.2.4

Southwest Sector

The Southwest sector contains the approved Area Structure Plans of Twinbrooks, Riverbend and Kaskitayo as well as the authorized Area Structure Plans of Terwillegar and Blackmud Creek (Bruyer Consultants Limited).

The supply of potential dwelling unit in the Sector is 29,505 units.

The actual average

absorption between 1980 - 1982 was 693 units per year. Projected annual absorption to 1986 is 779 units per year.

Table 4 shows the supply of potential dwelling units, projected annual absorption and inventory in years by dwelling unit type.

TABLE 4

Dwelling

Southwest Sector Inventory

Projected

Total Supply Inventory

Unit

Annual

of Potential

Type

Absorption

Units

Supply of Inventory of

Potential Subdivided Units in

Subdivided

Serviced and Serviced

Years

Lots

Lots in Years

Singles/Semis

451

16,297

36.1

2122

4.7

Ground Related Multiples

192

5,887

30.7

1162

6.1

Apartments

136

7,321

53.8

2596

19.1

779

29.505

37.9

5880

7.5

TOTAL

Appendix Tables A10 and All show the detailed supply and inventory in years of potential dwelling units on subdivided lots as well as potential units on subdivided and serviced lots. The inventory of potential units on serviced and subdivided lots is an identical supply of 7.5 years. All dwelling unit types are well above the target inventories.

FIGURE 12. 1983 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TARGETS SOUTH WEST SECTOR ACTION.

SHORTFALL

TARGET

UNIT TYPE

ADEQUATE SUPPLY

Potential dwelling units on all sector residential lands

5 years

S/S GRM APT

36.1 yrs 30.7 yrs 53.8 yrs

No Further A. S. P. Authorizations Required

Potential dwelling units in registered subdivision plans

2 years

S/S GRM APT

4.7 yrs 6.1 yrs 19.1 yrs

No Action

Potential dwelling units on serviced and registered lots

1.5 years

S/S GRM APT

4.7 yrs 6.1 yrs 19.1 yrs

No Action

CRITERIA

Potential dwelling units on all residential lands ,

Po ten t ia l A. S. P. 's t

Ex ist ing Res ide nt ia lLa nds *

FIGURE 13. 1983 STAGING REPORT CRITERIA SUMMARY SOUTH WEST SECTOR

NEUTRAL

CRITERIA

OBSERVED VALUE

REQUIRES

FAVOURS

City Wide Land Supply

25.6 yrs

<10 years

<5 years in one category

<10 years in 2 or 3 categories

<10 years in one category

Sector Land Supply

S/S

GRM APT

36.1 yrs 30.7 yrs 53.8 yrs

MITIGATES AGAINST

RULES OUT

>10 years in three categories

aneS'

Degree of Development

S/S 19% GRM 28% APT 34%

>75% in one or more category

50-75% in one or more category

<25% in all categories

Agricultural Conservation

Secondary in east part of sector (30%) Primary in west part of sector (70%)

Secondary Land Manageirient Managemeril

Fiscal Impact

Information Not Yet Available

Resources

Not a constraint

NA â&#x20AC;¢

Hazards

Major Pipeline Corridor (3% of land area)

Yes

Seventy-five percent of the total potential dwelling units in the sector remain unbuilt. Each dwelling unit type has an unbuilt inventory of greater than 66 percent (see Appendix Table 12).

In the west portion of the sector, about 70 percent, is Primary Agricultural Land Management Area while the remainder of the sector is Secondary Agriculture Land Management Area. The Sector is crossed by two major pipeline corridors with potentially dangerous high vapour pressure lines. No economically viable non-renewable resources are present.

In conclusion, the supply of potential dwelling units for all unit types is well above all GMP target inventories.

3.2.5

Southeast Sector

The Southeast Sector contains the approved Outline Plan of of Mill Woods, the approved Area Structure Plan of Meadows, and the authorized Ellerslie Area Structure Plan.

The supply of potential dwelling units in the sector is 50,763 units. The actual absorption between 1980 - 1982 was 1928 units per year. Projected annual absorption to 1986 is 2,285 units per year.

Table 5 shows the supply of potential dwelling units projected annual absorption and inventory in years by dwelling unit type.

TABLE 5

Dwelling

Southeast Sector Inventory

Projected

Total Supply Inventory

Unit

Annual

of Potential

Type

Absorption

Units

Singles/Semis

Supply of Inventory of

Potential Subdivided

Subdivided

Units in

Serviced

and Serviced

Years

Lots

Lots in Years

1,596

24,750

15.5

2601

1.6

Ground Related Multiples

387

10,223

26.4

2840

7.4

Apartments

302

15,790

52.3

8202

27.2

2 285

50,763

22.2

13643

6.0

TOTAL

FIGURE 14. 1983 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY TARGETS SOUTHEAST SECTOR CRITERIA

TARGET

UNIT TYPE

ADEQUATE SUPPLY

Total Potential Units

5 years

S/S GRM APT

15.5 yrs 26.4 yrs 52.3 yrs

Subdivided Potential Units

2 years

S/S GRM APT

7.4 yrs 27.2 yrs

S/S GRM APT

1.6 yrs 7.4 yrs 27.2 yrs

L Serviced and Subdivided Potential Units

1.5 years

SHORTFAI,L

ACTION

No Further A.S.P. Authorizations Required

1.6 yrs

Encourage More Registration Activity

No Action

FIGURE 15. 1983 STAGING REPORT CRITERIA SUMMARY SOUTHEAST SECTOR

-a

C.)

INVENTORY

REQUIRES

FAVOURS

City Wide Land Supply

25.6 years

<10 years

Sector Land Supply

S/S

15.5 yrs GRM 26.4 yrs 52.3 yrs APT

<5 years in one category

<10 years in 2 or 3 categories

<10 years in one category

S/S 33% GRM 31% 12% APT

>75% in one or more category

50-75% in one or more category

Secondary Land Management Area (100%)

Degree of Development

Agricultural Conservation

MITIGATES AGAINST

RULES OUT

>10 years in three categories

categories

:ca tgrJri3 <25% in all categories

Primary Land Management

Yes

Information Not Yet Available

Resources Hazards

NA Land, . Management

Fiscal Impact Poten t ia l

NEUTRAL

CRITERIA

Potentially Dangerous Pipelines

Appendix 10 and 11 show the detailed supply and inventory in years of potential dwelling units on subdivided lots as well as potential units on subdivided and serviced lots. The inventory of potential dwelling units on subdivided lots is 13,848 or 6.1 years supply. The inventory of subdivided and serviced lots is 13,643 or 6.0 years supply. The inventory of potential singles and semi units on subdivided and serviced lots is 1.6 years, slightly above the target inventory. However, the inventory of singles and semi units on subdivided lots, also 1.6 years, is below the target inventory of 2.0 years.

Seventy-three percent of the total potential dwelling unit in the sector remain unbuilt. Each dwelling unit type has an unbuilt inventory of greater than 67 percent (see Appendix Table 12).

The sector is all within a Secondary Agricultural Land Management Area. At least one pipeline corridor containing high vapour pressure transmission lines crosses the sector. The presence of the pipeline corridor could mitigate against authorization of new

residential development lands if they were required. The supply of potential dwelling units is well above the five-year minimum target in all dwelling unit types. However, the inventory of subdivided lots for singles and semidetached units is marginally below the GMP target inventory.

3.3

ASSOCIATED ISSUES

A number of associated issues become apparent when examining the staging results. These issues are outlined below.

3.3.1

Development Constraints

Several Area Structure Plans which have been authorized and/or approved by City Council have outstanding development issues. These issues are of two basic types: resource interface and significant servicing costs.

Conflicts between non-renewable resource recovery and potential residential uses exist in two authorized Area Structure Plans; Lewis Farms and Parkland. The integration of these two land uses has timing, environmental and safety implications. The issues have been

â&#x20AC;˘

recently addressed by an Energy Resources Conservation Board inquiry into "Resource Development and Possible Conflicts with Urban Development in the West Edmonton Area." The Energy Resources Conservation Board decision provides the framework for the integration of resource extraction and residential land uses in the area. The second problem type has to do with significant front-end servicing costs associated with the development of two separate areas-Twin Brooks and the Lake District/Pilot Sound. These two approved Area Structure Plans require the construction of expensive capital facilities before residential development can proceed; specifically, the required bridge crossing of the Blackmud Creek to service Twin Brooks and the completion of the trunk water loop from the E. L. Smith Treatment Plant and sanitary service trunk facilities required to service the Lake District and Pilot Sound areas. These servicing issues revolve around cost and timing. The inventory of subdivided and serviced single family and semi-detached lots in the combined North Central and Northeast Sectors is adequate until early 1985. By that time these major capital facilities will have to be in

place if further servicing and development of single family and semi detached dwelling -

units is to proceed. 3.3.2

Housing Mix

The housing mix outlined for new Area Structure Plans in the GMP is 55 - 65 percent single and semi-detached units, 15 - 25 percent ground-related multiple units and 15 - 25 percent apartment units (GMP, Volume II, Policy Report 5). Recent residential development activity has favoured a higher percentage of single and semi-detached units. This has resulted in higher relative inventories for potential ground-related multiple and apartment units which are subdivided in the new development area.

The existing

inventory split of potential units on subdivided vacant lots in the city is 28 percent single and semi, 25 percent ground-related multiple units and 47 percent apartments units. The composition of this inventory diverges considerably from the mix outlined in the GMP as shown in Table 6.

TABLE 6

HOUSING MIX

Inventory of Potential Units

GMP Housing

on Subdivided Lots

Unit Mix

Singles/Semis

28%

55 - 65%

Ground Related Multiples

25%

15 - 25%

Apartment

47%

15 - 25%

This inventory, as a result of the demand-policy divergence is characterized by vacant blocks for ground related multiples and apartment units in registered plans of subdivision.

The preference trends of the home buyer should be monitored closely in relationship to the policies of the GMP. An ideal mix may be one which ensures adequate supplies of

vacant residential land but avoids large inventories of vacant blocks in the suburban Area Structure Plan areas.

The prescribed GMP housing mix and the inventory of potential units on subdivided lots diverges considerably. Concern must be expressed regarding the likelihood of seeing multiple and apartment starts in both the inner-city and the new development areas. There may not be enough start to realize this GMP policy of mixed suburban residential uses and intensified inner-city residential redevelopment in the short to medium term. This issue will have to be monitored carefully in order to avoid a glut of vacant multiple unit sites in developing suburban areas.

3.3.3

Serviced Lots

As highlighted in Chapter 2, the supply of subdivided and serviced lots for single and semidetached units has fallen below the GMP target inventories in the northeast sector and is very close to the target inventories in the southeast sector (see Appendix Table 10 and 11).

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

It is possible to project this inventory into the future using expected annual absorption rates and the "Proposed Residential Land Servicing 1983 - 1988" table taken from Appendix Exhibit 3 in the Strategic Planning Guide 1983.

These projections produce the supply of potential single family units and multiple family units on subdivided and serviced lots for each year to 1986 (see Appendix Table 13). At projected absorption rates this analysis indicates a significant shortage of subdivided and serviced potential single family units in the northeast and southeast sectors commencing in 1983 and continuing to 1986.

If projected absorption rates materialize and proposed residential servicing is as anticipated in the Strategic Planning Guide, a shortage of subdivided and serviced residential lots for single family units will occur. In order to combat the possibility, the City should expedite residential servicing, encourage the registration of additional plans of subdivisions in these two sectors and monitor the situation carefully.

3.3.4

Inventory Levels

The last issue regards the levels of inventory by dwelling unit type in various sections of the City. Although some inventory shortages may occur . for subdivided and serviced residential lands, the inventory in years of residential lands in authorized and approved Area Structure Plans, City wide and in several City Sectors is very high. The inventory for all unit types City-wide is 25.6 years and in three city sectors is greater than 30 years (see Appendix Table 9).

In light of these large inventories it is important that applications for new Area Structure Plan authorizations be viewed in light of existing inventory levels and that careful phasing of new Neighbourhood Structure Plans occur.

3.4

STAGING FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

This report constitutes the first detailed application of the GMP staging provisions. This work has enabled staff to evaluate the staging framework as it appears in the GM?. It is to be expected that further evaluation and refinements to the methodology will occur overtime.

33 This first application of the approach has led to the conclusion that the staging framework is a useful tool for the analysis of residential inventories in the various parts of the City. It is expected that it will be a valuable consideration for decision-making regarding further residential approvals in the City. Several minor refinements, however, are detailed here. The first refinement has already taken place. It involves the tempering of recent absorption rates with housing start projections in order to calculate detailed future absorption rates. This refinement is a minor departure from the GMP but well within the intent of the policy. The refinement is detailed in Section 2.1 and the Appendices of this report. It is further recommended that demolitions not be included in the calculation of potential demand in the future, due to possible double counting of projected absorption. Further possible refinement and/or problem areas are outlined below. These concerns should be kept in mind for future Annual Staging Reports. 3.4.1

Comparative Evaluation of Criteria

In the staging approach, when a need for additional residential approvals is established, a number of locational criteria are considered. The locational guidelines contained in the staging policies include fiscal impact, agriculture conservation, resource development and environmental hazards. It is possible that two or more of these locational guidelines may come into play in new Area Structure Plan authorizations. It may be that two potential Area Structure Plans could apparently have equal constraints and attributes. This should not be a problem because more detailed inspection of the criteria will likely produce a preferred Area Structure Plan. For instance, both areas may fall into the fiscal impact assessment category of 85 - 115 percent when one is in fact 90 percent and the other 110 percent making the former of considerably lower fiscal impact. Further, these issues may crystallize when detailed Pipeline and Agricultural Land Management studies become available.

3.4.2

Dwelling Unit Absorption Changes

Short-term fluctuations in City-wide absorption rates or changes in the geographic distribution of these dwelling unit completions among the sectors may cause distortions in the inventory reporting system. In fact, absorption changes can be expected as a result of new Area techniques.

Structure Plan approvals,

migration changes in the City or marketing

These changes would have to be very dramatic, however, to precipitate a

shortage of residential land. Target inventories and actual inventories are generally large enough to accommodate normal year to year fluctuations of absorption by type and location. Fluctuations in the naturally elastic absorption rate should be kept in mind when applying the staging approach. 3.4.3

Target Inventories

Target inventories in the GMP are: City-wide supply of 10 years, sector unit type supply of 5 years, sector subdivided lot supply of 2 years and a sector subdivided and serviced supply of 1.5 years.

The 10 and 5 year target inventories are more than adequate, if

anything they may be too large.

Given existing approval and construction lead time,

lower targets would probably be adequate.

This concern can be examined over time. In

any case, authorization of addition Area Structure Plans in response to minor short falls of the existing target inventories should be avoided. 3.4.4

Sector Boundaries

The boundaries of the five City sectors and the inner city, Map 1, do not correspond to recently produced interdepartmental planning boundaries.

Reused sector boundaries will

be considered to ensure consistency and to facilitate analysis on a City-wide bases. 3.4.5

Simplification of System

The staging approach involves a significant number of calculations and assumptions. In future Annual Staging Reports it may be possible to simplify the system through the use of less detailed formulae.

35 3.4.6

Responsiveness to Market Conditions

Market conditions such as lot prices or size and the variety of housing units within each of the three type classes have not been included in the staging approach. Temporary short falls of a particular variation of single family units, for example, will occur. This does not mean that a new Area Structure Plan is required. In most cases the approval system has the flexibility to bring on stream a variety of lot types in relation to market demands.

3.4.7 Development Industry Liaison Committee Discussion

A draft copy of the Annual Staging Report was circulated to and discussed with the Development Industry Liaison Committee. This contact with the Edmonton development industry was considered essential not only because the report would affect the industry but because the industry's cooperation is required to make the staging approach work. Concerns were raised regarding the supply of residential land, projected absorption rates and General Municipal Plan minimum inventories.

It was suggested by DILC, that a proportion of the lots which have been subdivided for residential purposes are "less desirable" because of their configuration or proximity to unattractive features. The implication of this is that a residual of available lots, which are not considered an active part of the salable inventory, may always be present and may have to be discounted in the indication of available supply. The extent of this occurence is uncertain but will be investigated. Possible solutions include proportionally larger minimum inventory targets as well as better subdivision design and marketing.

Concern was also expressed that the projected absorption of apartments and ground related multiple units may be too high. These rates will be monitored closely. over the next year and projected absorption rates modified where necessary.

Other issues included: the changing mix and distribution of new housing units; the trend towards more homogenous plans of subdivision (ie. a larger proportion of single family units); and the possible re-subdivision of existing plans of subdivision in order to provide more saleable lots (eg. apartments to single family units). These can only become part of the projection analysis when a record of past performance is established, as no industry rules of thumb asppear to have wide acceptance.

All of these concerns will be monitored closely over the next year and changes proposed for the 1984 staging report as required. Planning staff will continue to liaise with the development industry regarding these issues.

4.0

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS

The following conclusions have been drawn from the 1983 Annual Staging Report. Specific findings can be found in the text and appendices of this report.

4.1

RESIDENTIAL LAND INVENTORY

The inventory of residential land in the City is capable of accommodating residential units for 25.6 years, well in excess of the GMP required target inventory of 10 years supply. The inventory of residential land in each city sector for each housing type, singles/semidetached, ground-related multiples and apartments, is also well in excess of the GMP required target of five years' supply. Map 2 shows the inventory of potential unit by sector and the number of years of supply for each housing type. Seventy-two percent of the potential housing units in new residential areas of the City remain unbuilt.

The supply of residential land is well in excess of requirements. Theoretically no new residential land will be required until after the year 2005. It is recommended that no new

residential Area Structure Plans be authorized during the

following year (i.e. till mid

1984).

Due to the lack of need for new residential Area Structure Plans, the locational criteria contained in the GMP staging approach were not applied this year.

4.2

SUBDIVIDED AND SERVICED LOTS INVENTORY

The supply of subdivided single-family/semi-detached lots in the Southeast Sector and the supply of single family/semi-detached lots which have been subdivided and are serviced in the Northeast Sector have fallen below the target inventories in the GMP. Further, if expected absorption rates of single and semi-detached dwelling units and proposed servicing rates materialize as planned, there will be a shortage of subdivided and serviced lots for single family and semi-detached dwelling units in these two City Sectors this year and each year until at least 1986.

It is recommended that several actions be taken:

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

I I

Developers be alerted to the potential shortage of single-family and semidetached lots in these sectors and be encouraged to register new lots in these areas via plan of subdivision;

City staff expedite the servicing of the above lots; and

City staff monitor closely the supply of subdivided and serviced lots in these two sectors.

4.3

ASSOCIATED ISSUES

City staff will continue to monitor three issues associated with residential staging: development constraints in certain Area Structure Plan areas, the mix of dwelling units in new development areas and the large inventories of land for residential development. Specifically, new recommendations may be necessary to deal with the perceived imbalance between the market-expressed preference for housing types and the prescribed

housing mix in the General Municipal Plan. 4.4 STAGING METHODOLOGY AS A GUIDE

The staging approach to residential development as outlined in the General Municipal Plan quantifies the Inventory of residential land in the various sectors of the City of Edmonton. The approach is intended to be used as a guide to assist in establishing the need for additional residential lands in the City. Chart 5.6, Footnote (e), emphasizes the "guide nature" of the staging approach:

"Even if authorization of an Area Structure Plan is not warranted by the criteria outlined above, authorization may be appropriate if there are other unforeseen circumstances which are preventing or inhibiting the construction of housing in the Sector and could be alleviated by authorizing another Area Structure Plan."

In formulating the assumptions used in the approach, the benefit of the doubt was always given in favour of further approvals. Specifically, on the supply side, low density assumptions were used; on the demand side high absorption assumptions were used.

An evaluation of the system shows that it is a valid tool for assisting decision makers. The staging approach and its' use should be monitored carefully with regard to several concern areas specified in the text to ensure it continues to be a valuable guide-post.

Recognizing that the criteria in the staging system leave sufficient latitude to deal with exceptional circumstances, the administration will use the staging approach as a prime basis for the formulation of recommendations to Council regarding the need for new Area Structure Plan authorizations. The Staging Report will be issued on an annual basis.

APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS APPENDIX

PAGE

MAPS Al GMP Map 17.3 Areas Suitable for Area Structure Plans

A2 GMP Map 14.1 Agricultural Land Management

TEXT Housing Unit Demand Methodology

TABLES Al Supply of Potential Dwelling Units on Subdivided Lots in Area Structure Plans (1982)

A2 Non Subdivided Potential Dwelling Units in Approved Area Structure Plans

A3 Potential Dwelling Units in Authorized Area Structure Plans A4 Potential Dwelling Units by Area Structure Plans

47 48

A5 Potential Dwelling Units by Area Structure Plan (Summary)

A6 Actual Absorption Rates in Approved A.S.P.s by Unit Type for 1980-1982

A7 Projected Annual Absorption by City Sector to 1986

AB Supply of Potential Dwelling Unit by City Sector

Inventory of Potential Dwelling Units by City Sector in Years

A10 Inventory of Subdivided Potential Dwelling Units by City Sector (1982)

All Inventory of Subdivided Potential Dwelling Units by City Sector (1982) in Years

Al2 Supply of Built and Unbuilt Potential Dwelling Units by City Sector A13 Potential Dwelling Units on Serviced Residential Lots

56 57

GENERAL MUNICIPAL PLAN

MAP 17.3 AREAS SUITABLE FOR AREA STRUCTURE PLANS 7

â&#x20AC;¢

I I

MAP A2

■

1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1

;,-//

'Ar

1\11111111111. AGRICULTURAL LAND MANAGEMENT PRIMARY LAND MANAGEMENT

P77712

SECONDARY LAND MANAGEMENT

TIlI 01111111111111111111111111111111111111111$ GENERAL MUNICIPAL PLAN

MAP 14.1 AGRICULTURAL LAND MANAGEMENT TdEsE°535iNs

APPENDIX

Housing Units Demand Methodology

The tables in the Appendix are to a large extent self-explanatory. Following is an explanation of the methodology used to establish the projected absorption rate by sector and by housing unit type shown on Appendix Table 7.

PROJECTED ANNUAL ABSORPTION BY SECTOR (In Housing Unit)

Singles/Semis GRM

Apartments Total

Total City Requirements 1982-86 1

42,911

Total Starts by type 2

17,064

Inner City Decrease/Increase 3

+1,500

Total New Development Area Increase

18,500

6,457

19,390

-14,542 6,500

5,000

1982-1986 (rounded) 4 Annual Average Absorption Rate 1982-1986 5

42,911

29,500

. 3,700

1,300

1,000

6,000

312

1,021

Annual Average Absorption by Sector Northeast

461

248

North Central

569

223

West

623

250

162

1,035

Southwest

451

192

136

779

__1 L596

387 _

302

2285

1 000

6,000

Southeast

TOTAL

3,700

1,300

88 â&#x20AC;¢

Taken from the Strategic Planning Guide 1983 Page 8

Distribution is taken from the Urban Growth Strategy Final Report

880

Assumes that 75% of new apartment units, or 18,700 units are built in the inner city. Based on the Urban Growth Strategy Housing Projections (unpublished, 1981), Table 17, it is assumed that 5,000 of these 18,700 units are developed on nonresidential land and the remaining 13,700 in residential areas. Based on an RA8 density of 91 units per net acre, this would consume 150 net acres of existing housing, or about 1,500 units.

Subtract/add inner city, decrease/increase from total starts

Divide "Total New Development Area Increase" by 5 for five years 1982-1986.

Calculated as follows:

Projected annual Suburban absorption

Projected annual

of units of type (x)

absorption of

during 1982-86

in Sector (n)

Recorded annual

in Sector (n)

during 1982-86

suburban absorption

during 1980-82

Recorded annual x

units of type (x)

of units of type (x). during 1980-82

Actual absorption rates by unit type and sector are shown on Table A6.

TABLE Al SUPPLY OF POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS ON SUBDIVIDED LOTS IN APPROVED AREA STRUCTURE PLANS (1982) 1

AREA STRUCTURE PLAN

SINGLE, SEMI DUPLEX UNITS

ROW UNITS

APARTMENT UNITS

TOTAL UNITS

Castle Downs South

804

931

409

2144

Clairview, Hermitage Casselman, Steele Heights

648

2080

1304

4032

1182

855

2596

4633

825

—

896

2601

2840

Kaskitayo Lake District Meadows Millwoods Pilot Sound Riverbend

Twinbrooks

8407

—

■■•■

••■

940

307

—

13848

1247

—

11.■

West Jasper Place

2087

813

2485

5385

TOTAL

9087

7897

15201

32185

SOURCE: Table 7.3. "Status of Residential Land 1982." 1 Potential number of units in approved Area Structure Plans which have been subdivided as of 1982 12 31. — Indicates no dwelling units.

1111111 MIN 1â&#x20AC;¢11

111111 11111 SIM MI NM MI

1111111 MI MI MI MI

NON SUBDIVIDED POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS IN APPROVED AREA STRUCTURE PLANS 1 TABLE A2 AREA STRUCTURE PLAN (Residential Portion) 2

RAW LAND SINGLES/ GROUND RELATED SEMIS HECTARES MULTIPLES

APARTMENTS TOTAL

115

1035

345

1725

207

345

798

7182

2394

11970

1099

9891

3297

16485

558

186

930

Pilot Sound

500

4500

1500

7500

Riverbend

458

4122

1374

6870

Twinbrooks

194

1746

582

2910

West Jasper Place

268

2412

804

4020

10551

52755

Clairview, Hermitage, Casselman, Steel Heights Kaskitayo Lake District Meadows Millwoods

TOTAL

3517

31653

SOURCE: Table 7.5. "Status of Residential Land 1982," City of Edmonton 1 Area Structure Plans approved by City Council as of .1982 12 31 . . . 2 Assuming 15 Units per gross hectare with housing stock distribution of: Singles/Semis, 60% Ground Related Multiples, 207.; Apartments 20%.

MIS

1111 11111 MI MI INN NIB

NO MN MI NMI MI WM VIII NM NMI NB nil NM

POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS IN AUTHORIZED AREA STRUCTURE PLANS

TABLE A3 AREA STRUCTURE PLAN (Residential Portion)

RAW LAND (HECTARES)

SINGLES/ GROUND SEMIS RELATED MULTIPLES

APARTMENTS TOTAL

Castledowns North

310

2790

930

4650

Terwillegar

800

7200

2400

12000

Lewis Farms

650

5850

1950

9750

Parkland

900

8100

2700

13500

Edmonton Northwest

500

4500

1500

7500

Ellerslie

1300

11700

3900

19500

Blackmud Creek

100

900

300

1500

TOTAL

4560

41040

13680

68400

1 Area Structure Plans Authorized for A.S.P. Preparation but not Approved by City Council as of 1983 09 30. 2 Assuming 15 Units Per Hectare with Housing Stock Distribution of 607 Singles/Semis, 20% Ground Related Multiples, 20% Apartments.

11111 En MI NM

BIB

Ell MI NIS 111111

MEI MI MI OM 111111 1E1 MI MI

POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS BY AREA STRUCTURE PLANS TABLE A4 VACANT SUBDIVIDED

CITY SECTOR A.S.P. 1

S/S GRM APT

TOTAL

APPROVED A.S.P.'s SS

GPM

APT

AUTHORIZED A.S.P.'s

TOTAL

GRM

APT

10TAL

1725 7500

NA NA

NA NA 2790 4500

NA NA 930 1500

NA NA 4650 7500

4020 NA NA

NA NA 5850 1950 8100 2700

NA 1950 2700

NA 9750 13500

NORTHEAST Clairview Pilot Sound

345 345 1500 1500

4032 —

1035 4500

— 409 NA NA

896 2144 NA NA

7182 NA NA NA

2394 NA NA NA

NA NA

1304 —

648 2080 — —

NORTHCENTRAL 2394 11970 NA NA NA NA NA NA

Lake District Castledowns S Castledowns N Edmonton NW

71 825 804 931 NA NA NA NA

WEST West Jasper Place Lewis Farms Parkland

2087 NA NA

813 NA NA

2485 NA NA

5385 NA NA

2412 NA NA

— 307 855 NA

— — 2596 NA

— 1247 4633 NA

NA 1746 4122 207 NA

— 940 1182 NA

582 1374 69 NA

NA 2910 6870 345 NA

7200 2400 NA NA NA NA NA NA 300 900

2400 NA NA NA 300

12000 NA NA NA 1500

8407 13848 — — NA NA

558 9891 NA

930 186 186 3297 3297 16485 NA NA NA

NA NA NA NA 11700 3900

NA NA 3900

NA NA 19500

804

SOUTHWEST Terwillegar Twinbrooks Riverbend Kaskitayo blackmud Creek

SOUTHEAST Millwoods The Meadows Ellerslle

2601 2840 — — NA NA

TOTAL

9087 7897 15201 32185

1 City sectors are as defined 2 Potential Dwelling Units on 3 Potential Dwelling Units in 4 Potential Dwelling Units in NA — Not Applicable. — No dwelling units

31653 10551 10551 52755

41040 13680 13680 68400

op Map 5.1 of the General Municipal Plan. Vacant Subdivided Lots are Taken from Table 1. Approved Area Structure Plans as Yet Unsubdivided are Taken from Table 2 Authorized Area Structure Plans not yet Approved are Taken from Table 3.

P-

11111•111111•11111111111•1111111011111111 IMIONIIIMM111111111111110111111•1101

POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS BY AREA STRUCTURE PLAN , -----

TABLE AS

CITY SECTOR

S/S GRM APT

AUTHORIZED ASP'S

APPROVED A.S.P.'s

VACANT SUBDIVIDED

TOTAL

S/S

GRM

APT

TOTAL

S/S

GRM APT

TOTAL

648 2080

1304

4032

5535

1845

NORTHCENTRAL

1629 1002

409

3040

7182

2394

2394 11970

7290 2430 2430 12150

WEST

2087

813

2485

5385

2412

804

4020

13950 4650 4650 23250

SOUTHWEST

2122 1162

2596

5880

6075

2025 .

2025 10125

8100 2700 2700 13500

SOUTHEAST

2601 2840

8407 13848

10449

3483

3483 17415

11700 3900 3900 19500

TOTALS

9087 7897 15201 32185

31653 10551 10551 52755

41040 13680 13680 68400

NORTHEAST

1 Figures are a total taken from Table 4. — indicates no dwelling units

804

9225

MI MN MI â&#x20AC;¢ NO MINIM MB NIB

ACTUAL ABSORPTION RATES IN APPROVED A.S.P.'s BY UNIT TYPE FOR 1980 - 1982

TABLE A6 ANNUAL AVERAGE UNITS

3 YEAR UNIT TOTAL S/S

GEM

APT

TOTAL

GRM

APT

TOTAL

NORTHEAST -lairview Pilot Sound

934

2815

341

285

311

938

101 670

264

528 1770

142 278

33 223

176 590

1380

861

486

2727

460

287

162

908

376 629

38 629

39 369

453 1627

125

151

209

123

542

3541 -

1337 -

908 -

5786 -

1180

445

302

1928

8214 4492 3001

15707

2738 1494 999

5235

1025

856

427 836

NORTH CENTRAL Lake District Castledowns WEST West Jasper Place SOUTHWEST Riverbend Twinbrooks Kaskitayo SOUTHEAST Millwoods Meadows TOTAL

SOURCE: Table 6.1. "Status of Residential Land in the City of Edmonton (1982)" Annual Average Units may not add due to rounding.

MS IMP NEI NE Mill IMP 11M

PROJECTED ANNUAL ABSORPTION BY CITY SECTOk TO 1986 1 TABLE A7 CITY SECTOR

SINGLES/ SEMIS

GROUND RELATED MULTIPLES

APARTMENTS

TOTAL

NORTHEAST

461

248

312

1021

NORTHCENTRAL

569

223

880

WEST

623

250

162

1035

SOUTHWEST

451

192

136

. 779

SOUTHEAST

1596

387

302

2285

TOTALS

3700

1300

1000

6000

Calculated by distributing by sector the total projected absorption in relation to recent actual absorption (Table 6). 1 Calculated using recorded annual absorption by sector and based on housing projections from Economic Forecast Guidelines Committee (See text for formula and assumptions). 2 It is estimated that an additional 3000 apartment units per year will be absorbed in the inner city.

•

• NM MI

MI ill MI 11•1

1•11 ONIMIM

SUPPLY OF POTENTIAL DWELLING UNIT BY CITY SECTOR

TABLE A8 CITY SECTOR

TOTAL POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS

S/S

GRM

APT

PROJECTED ANNUAL ABSORPTION

TOTAL

S/S

GRM

APT

TOTAL

6183

3925

3149

13257

461

248

312

1021

NORTHCENTRAL

16101

5826

5233

27160

569

223

880

WEST

18449

6267

7939

32655

623

250

162

1035

SOUTHWEST

16297

5887

7321

29505

451

192

136

779

SOUTHEAST

24750

10223

15790

50763

1596

387

302

2285

TOTALS

81780

32128

39432

153340

3700

1300

1000

6000

NORTHEAST

1 Total potential units are a total taken from Table 5. 2 Projected annual absorptions is taken from Table 7. NOTE: Totals may not add due to rounding.

IIIII

• MO =I

MN MI MI all • • OM MOM

INVENTORY OF SUBDIVIDED POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS BY CITY SECTOR (1982)

TABLE A10 SUBDIVIDED AND SERVICED CITY SECTOR

GRM

APT

TOTAL SUBDIVIDED

TOTAL

GRM

APT

TOTAL

648

2080

1304

4032

648

2080

1304

4032

NORTHCENTRAL

1594

1002

409

3005

1629

1002

409

3040

WEST

2042

813

2485

5340

2087

813

2485

5385

SOUTHWEST

2122

1162

2596

5880

2122

1162

2596

5880

SOUTHEAST

2601

2840

8202

13643

2601

2840

8407

13848

TOTAL

9007

7897

14996

31900

9087

7897

15201.

32185

NORTHEAST

- Potential units on lots which have been subdivided and are serviced taken from Table 7.1. "Status of Residential Land Ili the City of Edmonton (1982)" 2 Potential units on all subdivided lots (both serviced and unserviced) taken from Table 7.3. "Status of Residential Land in the City of Edmonton (1982)"

• nil NM =I MI I= MO

INVENTORY OF SUBDIVIDED POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS BY CITY SECTOR (1982)

TABLE A10 SUBDIVIDED AND SERVICED CITY SECTOR

GRM

APT

TOTAL SUBDIVIDED

TOTAL

GRM

•

APT

TOTAL

648

2080

1304

4032

648

2080

1304

4032

NORTHCENTRAL

1594

1002

409

3005

1629

1002

409

3040

WEST

2042

813

2485

5340

2087

813

2485

5385

SOUTHWEST

2122

1162

2596

5880

2122

1162

2596

5880

SOUTHEAST

2601

2840

8202

13643

2601

2840

8407

13848

TOTAL

9007

7897

14996

31900

9087

7897

15201

32185

NORTHEAST

_ Potential units on lots which have been subdivided and are serviced taken from Table 7.1. "Status of Residential Land in the City of Edmonton (1982)" 2 Potential units on all subdivided lots (both serviced and unserviced) taken from Table 7.3. "Status of Residential Land in the City of Edmonton (1982)"

I= OM •

•

IIIII

•

MN =II ill

NM •

INVENTORY OF SUBDIVIDED POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS BY CITY SECTOR (1982), IN YEARS

TABLE All SUBDIVIDED AND SERVICED

TOTAL SUBDIVIDED

APT

TOTAL

GRM

4.2

3.9

1.4

8.4

4.2

3.9

4.5

4.7

3.4

2.9

4.5

4.7

3.4

3.3

15.3

5.2

3.3

15.3

5.2

SOUTHWEST

4.7

6.1

19.1

7.5

4.7

6.1

19.1

7.5

SOUTHEAST

1.6

7.4

27.2

6.0

1.6

7.4

27.8

6.1

TOTAL

2.4

6.1

15.0

5.3

2.5

6.1

15.2

5.4

CITY SECTOR

GRM

NORTHEAST

1.4

8.4

..ORTHCENTRAL

2.8

WEST

APT

TOTAL

,alculated by dividing the inventory (Table 10) by the projected annual absorption (Table 8). 1 Potential units on lots which have been subdivided and are serviced taken from "Status of Residential Land in the City of Edmonton (1982)," Table 7.1. 2 Potential units on all subdivided lots (both serviced and unserviced) taken from "Status of Residential Land in the City of Edmonton (1982)," Table 7.3.

SUPPLY OF BUILT AND UNBUILT POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS BY CITY SECTOR TABLE Al2

CITY SECTOR

GROUND RELATED MULTIPLES SINyLE/SEMI 2 UNBUILT BUILT UNBUILT BUILT

APARTMENTS UNBUILT BUILT

TOTAL

BUILT

UNBUILT

NUMBER NORTHEAST % SPLIT

3903

6183

3081

3925

2899

3149

9883

13257

NUMBER NORTH CENTRAL % SPLIT

5691

16101

2144

5826

1136

5233

8971

27160

NUMBER WEST 7. SPLIT

4178

18449

4101

6267

3534

7939

11813

32655

NUMBER SOUTHWEST 7. SPLIT

3834

16297

2351

5887

3718

7321

9903

29505

NUMBER SOUTHEAST 7. SPLIT

12030

24750

4560

10223

2151

15790

18741

50763

TOTAL

29636 27

81780 73

16237 34

32128 66

13438 25

39432 75

59311 28

153340 72

1 Figures for built units taken from Table 5.2, "Status of Residential Land in the City of Edmonton (1982)" 2 Figures for unbuilt units are taken from Table 8, supply of potential units by City sector.

Lfl

POTENTIAL DWELLING UNITS ON SERVICED RESIDENTIAL LOTS TABLE Al3 1982 S/S

MFU

1983 S/S

MFU

1984 S/S

MFU

1985 S/S

MFU

1986 S/S

MFU

NORTHEAST Inventory Years

648 1.4

3384 5.6

282 0.6*

2821 5.0

-4 0*

2454 4.4

30 0.1*

2159 3.9

204 0.4*

1819 3.2

NORTH CENTRAL Inventory Years

1594 2.8

1411 4.7

1269 2.2

1200 3.9

994 1.7

989 3.2

819 1.4

778 2.5

844 1.5

667 2.1

WEST Inventory Years

2024 3.3

3298 8.0

1581 2.5

2886 7.0

1102 1.8

2474 6.0

873 1.4

2292 5.6

744 1.2

2180 5.3

SOUTHWEST Inventory Years

2122 4.6

3758 11.5

1865 4.1

3430 10.5

1558 3.4

3120 9.5

1561 3.4

2874 8.8

1504 3.3

2746 8.4

SOUTHEAST Inventory Years

2601 1.6

11042 16.0

1128 0.7*

10403 15.1

9714 -145 -0.1* 14.1

-1018 9225 -0.6* 13.4

-1991 8636 -1.2* 12.5

TOTAL Inventory Years

9007 2.4

22893 10.0

6125 1.7

20843 9.1

3425 0.9*

1995 0.5*

895 0.2*

City Sector

18943 8.2

17423 7.6

16073 7.0

1 SS = Singles and Semi Detached Residential Units MFU = Multi Family Residential Units Inventory = Number of potential units on subdivided and serviced residential lots available Years = Inventory expressed in number of years supply 2 Inventory of units is taken from the "Status of Residential Land (1982)" Table 7.1) Servicing rate is taken from Appendix Exhibit 3 "Strategic Planning Guide 1983" Absorption rate is as assumed in Table 7. * The supply of subdivided and serviced lots is insufficient to accomodate the projected demand in these years (i.e. 0.6 years supply represents a shortfall of 0.4 years supply in that year).

(-11

FLnni g Dcpwtment

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