CITY OF E D
•
31
ION PRO
THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT RESEARCH & LONG RANGE PLANNING BRANCH •1974
CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB-REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS
PREPARED BY: RESEARCH AND LONG RANGE PLANNING BRANCH PLANNING DEPARTMENT APRIL, 1974
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Lists of Tables, Maps and Figures
ii
Introduction
1
Glossary of Terms
2
Analysis of Projections
3
Bibliography
15
Appendix: Component Review
17
LIST OF TABLES TABLE
Page
1. Population Projections for the City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-region
7
2. Percentage Annual Growth Rates of the Projected Population of the City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-Region, 1972 - 2001
8
3. Projected Population of the Edmonton Sub-region by Sex and Five Year Age Groups, 1972, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 2001 .
9
4. Projected Population of the City of Edmonton by Sex and Five Year Age Groups, 1974, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 2001 . 10 5. Projected Age-Specific Fertility Rates, 1971, 1985, for City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-Region
21
6. Age-Specific Survival Rates by Sex and Single Years of Age, 1971, 1986
22
7. Net Migration for City of Edmonton, 1960 - 1973
23
8. Assumed Age-Sex Composition of Migrants by Single Years of Age and Sex
24
9. 1973 City of Edmonton Population
25
10. 1971 Edmonton Sub-region Population
26
LIST OF MAPS MAP 1. Edmonton and Sub-region
Page 5
LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1. Actual and Projected Populations for City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-region
Page
6
2. Projected City of Edmonton Age and Sex Distribution Pyramids, 1974 - 2001
11
3. Projected Edmonton Sub-Region Age and Sex Distribution Pyramids, 1972 - 2001
13
INTRODUCTION The determination of the future growth of the population of the City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-Region is of primary importance for all aspects of urban administration. Realistic estimates of changes in the size of the population based upon the best available infoimation is imperative in planning to meet the future requirements of both the local community and surrounding area. Any study, whether it concerns itself with long range growth patterns or with a specific public facility, requires an estimate of the number of persons likely to be involved in or affected by future developments.
This report meets the requirements for info wation on future city and subregional population growth. The population estimates were obtained by the cohort-survival method of projection which utilizes separate assumptions for each of the components of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration. The assumptions are in turn based upon historical analysis and current evaluation of component information. However, while these projections use the best available information, they must be considered only as approximations due to the uncertainties of predicting future component behavior.
Three projections, low, medium, and high, are given for both the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Sub-region to provide latitude of choice. Tables are also supplied to indicate projected age and sex distributions, as well as average annual growth increase percentages.
- 2 -
GLOSSARY
OF
TERMS
AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE
the annual births per 1,000 women in a given age group divided by the number of women in that age group at midyear. The tetm "age-specific" is also understood to mean "sex-specific."
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATE (DEATH RATE)
the annual number of deaths reported per annum at a given age (and sex) per 1,000 people in that age (and sex) category.
AGE-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL RATE (SURVIVAL RATIOS)
1,000 minus the crude mortality rate by age and sex of cohorts.
COHORT
a group of people born in the same time period.
COHORT-SURVIVAL METHOD
a method of forecasting annual population size by age and sex groups from the latest census with calculations made for each of the three major components of population change: deaths, births, and net migration,
EDMONTON SUB-REGION
the area surrounding the City of Edmonton which interacts socially, physically and economically with the City. (See Map 1).
NATURAL INCREASE
the annual births minus the annual deaths.
NET MIGRATION
the difference between the annual population increase and the annual natural increase (i.e., Population Increase - Births+ Deaths = Net Migration)
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
the sum of the age-specific fertility rates. The average number of children born to one thousand women between the ages 15-49.
-3ANALYSIS OF PROJECTIONS A detailed analysis of the results of the projections is not presented in this report since the user may best discern which portion of the data will be of most benefit. Rather, a few general comments have been made concerning some of the more significant results.
The most notable feature of the projections appears in Table 1 and Figure 1. It can be seen from these that the majority of the population growth for the Sub-region has occured outside the City's boundaries. This is a result of the relatively low net-migration assumption for the City as compared to that of the Sub-region. If this trend in the net-migration continues, the population within the current City boundaries will grow much slower than in the past while the surrounding coimuunities will experience significantly large population increases. The relatively large net-migration rates for the Sub-region may be unrealistic when one considers the various population projections that are being done for Canada as a whole. These Canada-wide projections typically are predicting a population for Canada of approximately 30 million at the turn of the century and that its population will stabilize at this level or decline slowly. This is less than a 40% increase over the present population of 22 million. Pence, if the projections for Canada hold true the sources for new migrants will steadily diminish. Perhaps in this case, the low Sub-region projections would be more realistic.
The age and sex projections in Table 3 and Table
4 show that there will be
significant changes in the population structure in the future. For the Subregion, the 0-19 school children age groups will decline from 41% to 34%, the
-4-
20-64 working age group will increase from 53% to 59% and the 65 and over senior citizen age groups will increase from 6% to 7% during the period from 1971 to 1986. The above percentages are derived from the entire population for the years 1971 and 1986 respectively. These shifts in the composition of the population will have profound educational, economic and social ramifications on the City and Sub-region in the future.
The Planning Department deems that the medium projections for the City and Sub-region are more valid than the low or high projections when current trends are considered. Therefore, it is recommended that the medium projections be used whenever possible. The low and high projections are included in the report as indicators to what may happen if the current fertility, mortality and net-migration rates alter significantly. If such an alteration occurs new projections will be produced that reflect these altered rates.
In conclusion it can be said that the general rate of population growth for the City and Sub-region is considerably subdued and that current decreases in net-migration and fertility will continue to keep this rate down. It is left up to others to evaluate the specific implications or impacts of these projections.
PREPARED BY; G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON APRIL, 1974
El
oomooloom:
f
111111111
,
igiummill11111110111111= :111111111111:-
Tom
/
L!IuI a III • •
a
Iii
•lUril
'
LIVn
itainwoor
lain alallalliallalliiillill
11:1
NM
a a a
a a a a a olimoom l000rooloommoor
fpfi)enoveimmi:
D SUB-RE
EDMONTO
Figure 1 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS FOR CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB—REGION 1,300000
1,200,000-
1,100,000(a) 0, 1,000,000(b) 900,000-
0 800,000— E < _J
0., 0..."' e
40
40
0 700,000— a.
40 40
(d )
40
00 4°
600,000-
444.
.0..-
-
SO..' 0•41°'* ...°'
500,000City of Edmonton 400,000-
300,000-
200,000 1961
1
1
i i 1966
ti
I
i 7 1971
r
I
I I 1976
I
(a) High fertility, 13,200 annual migration (b) Medium fertility, 9,200 annual migration (c) Low fertility, 5,200 annual migration Source: City of Edmonton, Planning Department March, 1974
Iri, 1981 YEAR
,
1 , 1986
,
I , 1991
F
I 1996
,----2001
(d) High fertility, 4,000 annual migration (e) Medium fertility, 2,000 annual migration (0 Low fertility, 0 annual migration Prepared by. G. R. Kelly E. R. Nicholson
Table 1 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB-REGION a. EDMONTON SUB-REGION
CITY OF EDMONTON YEAR 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 L.994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
LOW b
447854 453805 459773 465724 471629 477465 483219 488881 494444 499903 505249 510473 515560 520551 525427 530166 534744 539137 543329 547317 551098 554677 558061 561256 564276 567129 569829 572374
MEDIUM c
449854 458122 466503 474972 483504 492081 500686 509311 517947 526586 535220 543834 552413 560932 569366 577685 585861 593872 601709 609373 616875 624226 631436 638517 645483 652348 659122 665809
HIGH d
LOW e
451854 462622 473605 484774 496101 507566 519155 530861 542680 554605 566628 578739 590919 603080 615192 627223 639143 650931 662579 674095 685493 696790 708013 719186 730337 741490 752657 763843
527417 540003 552743 565606 578561 591586 604659 617767 630893 644019 657123 670180 683160 696033 708765 721408 733925 746289 758479 770503 782359 794058 805615 817044 828364 839588 850733 861794 872776 883671
IEDIUM f 531417 548352 565610 583167 600995 619072 637376 655890 674598 693479 712508 731658 750899 770194 789501 808785 828009 847147 866194 885156 904049 922893 941702 960497 979300 998126 1016992 1035901 1054858 1073858
HIGH g 535417 556851 578790 601208 624079 647380 671088 695192 719672 744510 769684 795168 820931 846936 873142 899404 925684 951962 978225 1004496 1030792 1057147 1083600 1110188 1136954 1163929 1191135 1218580 1246269 1274201
(a) Fertility rates declined to 1985, held constant thereafter. (b) Low fertility, 0 annual migration (c) Medium fertility, 2,000 annual migration - Recommended projection (d) High fertility, 4,000 annual migration (e) Low fertility, 5,200 annual migration (0 Medium fertility, 9,200 annual migration - Recomuended projection (g) High fertility, 13,200 annual migration
SOURCE: THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT MARCH, 1974
PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON
TABLE 2 PERCENTAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF THE PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE CITY OF EDMONTON AND THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION, 1972-2001 a. EDMONTON SUB-REGION
CITY OF EDMONTON YEAR 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
LOW b
1.27 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.23 1.20 1.16 1.13 1.10 1.06 1.03 0.99 0.96 0.93 0.90 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.61 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.45
MEDIUM c
1.71 1.81 1.80 1.79 1.77 1.75 1.72 1.70 1.67 1.65 1.62 1.59 1.56 1.52 1.49 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.26 1.22 1.18 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.06 1.03 1.01
HIGH d
LOW e
MEDIUM f
HIGH g
2.15 2.33 2.32 2.31 2.29 2.26 2.24 2.21 2.18 2.16 2.13 2.10 2.07 2.02 1.97 1.92 1.87 1.82 1.76 1.71 1.67 1.63 1.59 1.56 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.47
2.34 2.34 2.31 2.28 2.24 2.21 2.17 2.13 2.09 2.04 2.00 1.95 1.91 1.85 1.80 1.76 1.71 1.66 1.61 1.57 1.52 1.48 1.44 1.40 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.29 1.26 1.24
3.07 3.09 3.06 3.02 2.97 2.92 2.88 2.83 2.78 2.73 2.68 2.62 2.57 2.51 2.45 2.39 2.33 2.26 2.20 2.15 2.09 2.05 2.00 1.96 1.93 1.89 1.86 1.83 1.80 1.77
3.80 3.85 3.80 3.73 3.67 3.60 3.54 3.47 3.41 3.34 3.28 3.21 3.14 3.08 3.01 2.92 2.84 2.77 2.69 2.62 2.56 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.36 2.32 2.29 2.26 2.23 2.20
(a) Fertility rates declined to 1985, held constant thereafter. (b) Low fertility, 0 annual migration (c)Medium fertility, 2,000 annual migration - Recommended projection (d) High fertility, 4,000 annual migration (e) Low fertility, 5,200 annual migration (0 Medium fertility, 9,200 annual migration - Recoitunended projection (g) High fertility, 13,200 annual migration
SOURCE: THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT MARCH, 1974
PREPARED BY. G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON
TABLE 3 PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION BY SEX AND FIVE YEAR ACE GROUPS a. 1972, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 2001
36058 36616 35197
40123 40959 41100
37437 38115 38168
42887 42421 42711
32374 31935 37280 37624 36059 35353 25916 19699 17230 15565 13943 10518 7811 4639
39484 38249 38148 42257 42228 38052 34946 26984 19963 16834 14000 10224 6440 3725
36648 35689 35666 39574 38991 36864 35722 26054 19724 17076 15075 12982 9144 6013
2357 998
1655 750
2965 1272
42679 42792 42392 41069 43931 43057 38215 34503 26163 18869 15302 11995 8111 4341 2044
31575 29357 27152
37027 36136 33312
34553 33641 30917
38649 39345 37896
30236 31596 32379 33161 24604 18981 16910 15571 14442 11531 9560 6859 4758 2859
30612 35179 37616 35447 33812 26876 20577 18245 16222 13040 9386 6927 4448 2512
28613 33553 35325 34682 34540 25464 19480 17155 15669 14369 11246 8963 6003 3683
1253 523
31830 33447 32494 32068 25884 20131 18255 16617 13720 10235 8020 5576 3709 2015 929 468
1527 661
1108 515
1824 821
34912 33974 39344 40540 37172 34727 27221 20513 17787 15378 11906 8093 5521 3010 1383
298704
349758
343720
398999
390502
1976 MALES FEMALES
1981 FEMALES MALES
0-4 5-9 10-14
25006 23512 28379 27206 29277 27364
29201 27228 30233
27283 25591 28781
33811 31543 29005
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
25712 25940 22831 18306 16968 16523 14465 11488 9434 7287 5587 3923 2584 1683
30100 28305 29107 24091 19079 17783 16592 14019 10723 8730 6438 4671 2977 1707
28280 28650 30863 23197 18095 16402 15318 14339 11528 9773 7280 5427 3696 2426
85-89 901+
873
25868 27838 22997 17550 15917 15098 14422 11943 10090 7784 6046 4403 3240 2094 1061 423
911 395
256560 264857
302291
TOTAL
2001 MALES FEMALES
1991 MALES FEMALES
1972 MALES FEMALES
295
1996 FEMALES MALES
1986 MALES FEMALES
GROUPS
610
447983 437173
496122 483178
a. BASED ON THE "MEDIUM" FERTILITY ASSUMPTION AND AN ANNUAL NET MIGRATION OF 9,200 PERSONS SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, MARCH 1974
PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON
904
40023 39486 39665 39615 39954 39411 37963 40934 39780 37220 35730 25955 19492 16508 14015 11247 7031 3834 1606
544388 529470
TABLE 4
PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE CITY OF EDMONTON BY SEX AND FIVE YEAR AGE GROUPS a. 1974, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 CROUPS
1974 MALES FEMALES
1976 MALES FEMALES
1981 MALES FEMALES
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29
20297 19015 23140 22270 23756 22403 21266 21943 22942 25290 19721 19476
20468 22442 23977 22594 22168 22176
19016 21574 22733 22148 24190 23330
22795 20960 22902 24383 23325 23046
30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
15058 14074 13758 12449 10046 8388 6555 4935 3420
14611 13363 12896 12593 10407 8874 6716 5402 3931
16916 14144 14044 13096 10988 8785 7138 5287 3737
16059 13677 13162 12775 11478 9295 7512 5799 4359
75-79 80-84 85-89
2207 1454 777 268
2900 1885 973
2357 1422 808
395
224509 225345
90+ TOTAL
1986 MALES FEMALES
1991 MALES FEMALES
1996 MALES FEMALES
21336 19473 21990 23126 22 934 25067
23768 23295 21416 23309 25115 24214
22225 21804 19884 22384 23918 23813
24041 24275 23757 21823 24043 26005
22472 22700 22224 20272 23175 24801
23439 24549 24740 24168 22561 24936
21908 22948 23122 22619 21059 24056
23368 23948 25015 25153 24901 23459
21842 22384 23372 23521 23411 21935
22800 17291 14327 14039 12902 10621 8263 6459 4513
23888 16394 13874 13243 12751 11369 9101 7206 5356
23680 23165 17465 14327 13831 12473 9997 7482 5522
25633 24236 16595 13962 13227 12635 11135 8731 6667
24849 24045 23308 17434 14115 13371 11732 9053 6394
24380 25985 24437 16678 13945 13112 12370 10678 8072
26636 25211 24180 23211 17160 13643 12571 10612 7735
25369 24730 26181 24492 16639 13818 12834 11849 9866
25570 26993 25343 24067 22810 16578 12825 11364 9056
24623 25721 24929 26225 24388 16472 13521 12292 10933
3029 2027 1045
2932 1580 769
3761 2309 1265
3567 1973 866
4629 2888 1465
4377 2400 1086
6125 3399 1619
441
405
554
432
686
487
5060 2945 1319 594
6968 4430 2269
309
5768 3554 1847 809
1010
721
8518 5338 2833 1240
232854
233649
254314
254997
275896 276517
296596
297276
315269
316167
332312
333498
a. BASED ON THE "MEDIUM" FERTILITY ASSUMPTION AND AN ANNUAL NET MIGRATION OF 2,000 PERSONS. SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, hARCH 1974
PREPARED BY: G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON
2001 MALES FEMALES
Figure 2
1974 AGE 9085-89 80-84
PROJECTED CITY OF EDMONTON AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION PYRAMIDS, 1974 — 2001a
75-79 70- 74 65-69
;•,••••:
!OM.,
60-64 55-59 50-54
•••••••••••••••••
45-49 40-44
-•
•• :9' •^:-'.1,°
35-39 30-14 25-29 20-24 15-19
:•••:•x•x•:•%:••••••••!:::::•%::.
10-14 5—9
• •
• • • •
• • • • • • • • •
0—4 40,000 30,000
0
20,000 10,000
10,000
20,000 30.000 40,000
POPULATION 1981
1976
AGE 90 —± 85-89 80-84 :-X
75-79 70-74 65-69 60—o4 55-59 50-54 4 5— 49 40— 4 4
‘19!, X • %F.::
•:•••
35-39 30-34
:C4 • O •de: • 0.0e ; b0.0.4 • • • •.%0.11.( 6.0.•.0.6.0.41.6 • •• •
...a
VVV.
"-'
25-29 20-24 15-19
.9. ' • • :%,*07,.: ° '0:-* •
10-14 5_9
••y.••••••:•:•:•:•:. ••
:••••••••••••••:,:•:•••:•:•:•x•., 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
0
0-4
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
POPULATION a. Based on medium fertility assumption and an annual net migration of 2000 persons.
k•!::•!:;•°••:•°.
:9" >XIX.' X • ••••••••••••••• 0 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
POPULATION
Figure 2 (Cont'd) 1986
AGE
1991
90— + 85-89 80-84
••••e•
.
••!e••••••••• • :•°••••••••••••••••
•• •
....v.,-
•••••41 •••••••••
40,000 30.000 20,000 10,000
0
••••• K*2;
75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
.1.•••••••••••••
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
1996
AGE
.• rev'
90--185-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
e
• • • • '• ° • ‘''')•••••:•:•• '•••••:•$••:•:•:•:•:•:°:Nf•••:°: C•%':°•••,./k. k):•:. No,'" •••••••:•••••••%•••:•:•:::::•:. '.•: . $••••••:4: •: /•‘•• di%
40,000 30.000 20,000 10,000
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
POPULATION Source: City of Edmonton Planning Department March 1974
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
POPULATION
POPULATION 2001
:•••!:
:•11,••• '44
••••
., 1,.°,•••:•• v..- •
• :::••:•••••••:••
‹,,Y•No • 11,•°•':=:=7,••:.
• ,•'.•:•:•.•:•:•.>>>.•:•:. 40.000 30,000 20,000 10,000
,•4••
0
•
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
POPULATION Prepared by: G. R. Kelly E. R. Nicholson
0
0 0 0 0
0 0
0 Z6 b
0
4,•0
K.) L.)
0 Cr,. 0 u• 0 (-+, 0
0
0
b..
0 F•"•••• 0
1,)
0 0
0 Zs5 0
0 0
-
K.• K.) w w Z.
0 m
2
0
U• ta• N N CO CO •0 5i3O ,0(,00,0u.0th0u,0th0›.
s aNv 30V
7, 5
:•:•:•:* • '• ••
cT
11111111111111111i 1„ 0 C..) L.., A A Ul C, CT O. N N CO (:0 _F .., -0 - 4, .0 A ,C) '0 A <1 , •0 0
0 Ln
4,
00 P o
,0
1, U.1 `.1 CO CO Ul 0th 0 Ln 0 • U,0U,O Ln I 1111 1 1 1 1 1 I A A VI Cri -1- M '0 •0 4, •0 •0 '0 • •0
fa)
3
LOO
L61-
.75
G NOINO
aWLIO paSeg
m fertilityassumptionandanannual netmigrationof 9200persons.
Figure 3 (Cont'd) 1986
Female
Male
Made
AGE
Female
90— -I•:•:;
85-89 80-84 :•••••
75— 79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59
e ' ••• •••••••• • •• o••••.• .1.0.••••••••••••••
50-54
" eeeeee•
te.Yeet •
45-49 •••••
40-44
• ••• • 0.....•
35-39
:2:2:212
30-34
:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:•:.:•:•:•:•••••••••v••••••••••••:.
25-29 A•
'•:•:•••••'ee:
20-24 15-19
•:•••:•••• . • •;•;•;:;:•:•%:•:•:•:•:•:•:•::
•• • •
10-14 5—9
. ... • ... •.• 40,000 30 000 20O0 10,000
0-4 0
40.000 30,000 20,000 10,000
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Female
Male
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
POPULATION
POPULATION
1996
•:.:• • ' • •••:•••• "•••••:!:!••••wee.:.;:•: '.:0•••••••••••• %%Ye.'
AGE
2001
Female
Male
90—H85-89 80-84 75-79
„
70-74 65-69 60-64
%*e.U.1•::"
55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29
WAW." SNWYWAV
'
.••
•••••••;••••••••,•••:::•:•: .`e•`
20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
0
10,000
POPULATION
Source: City of Edmonton Planning Department March, 1974
20,000
30,000
40,000
40,000 30.000 20,000 10,000
0
10,000 20,000
30,000
POPULATION Prepared by: G. R. Kelly E. Ft. Nicholson
- 15 BIBLIOGRAPHY Alberta, Government of, Alberta Bureau of Statistics: POPULATION FORECAST, 1971-1976-1981-1986, Alberta, Government of Alberta, April 1968 Alberta, Government of, Department of Public Health: ANNUAL REPORT OF THE DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH, VITAL STATISTICS DIVISION, Edmonton, The Queen's Printer, 1946-1970 Alberta, Government of, Oil and Gas Conservation Board: ALBERTA POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 1966-1996, Calgary, Government of Alberta, October, 1968 Anderson, Isabel: INTERNAL MIGRATION IN CANADA, 1921-1961, Economic Council of Canada Staff Study #13, March, 1966 Atchley, Robert C.: POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND ESTIMATES FOR LOCAL AREAS, Ohio, Scripps Foundation, 1970 British Columbia Research Council: POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN, 1966-1981, Technical Bulletin NO. 29, October, 1963 Calgary, City of, Planning Department: METROPOLITAN CALGARY POPULATION: HISTORICAL REVIEW, 1946-1970, Calgary, Planning Department, 1970 Calgary, City of, Planning Department: POPULATION FORECASTS: 1966-1991, Calgary, Planning Department, 1970 Canada, Government of, Dominion Bureau of Statistics; CENSUS OF POPULATION, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1941-1966 Canada, Government of, Dominion Bureau of Statistics: MIGRATION PROJECTIONS FOR CANADA, 1969-1984, ANALYTICAL AND TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM #6, Ottawa, November, 1970 Canada, Government of, Dominion Bureau of Statistics: THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR CANADA, 1969-1984, ANALYTICAL AND TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM #4, Ottawa, April, 1970 Edmonton, City of, Planning Department: DRAFT CHAPTER OF THE GENERAL PLAN #3, Edmonton, Planning Department, 1963 Edmonton, City of, Planning Department: METROPOLITAN EDMONTON POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 1971-2001, Edmonton, Planning Department, September, 1971 Edmonton, City of, Planning Department: METROPOLITAN EDMONTON POPULATION, 19461970, Edmonton, Planning Department, May, 1971 George, M.V. and Gn.anasekaran K.S.: POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS FOR ALBERTA, 1970-1985, Human Resources Research Council, March, 1972 Hauser, Philip M. and Duncan, Otis Dudley: THE STUDY OF POPULATION, The University of Chicago Press, 1959
- 16 -
Tiling, Wolfgang M.: POPULATION, FAMILY, HOUSEHOLD AND LABOUR FORCE GROWTH TO 1970, Economic Council of Canada Staff Study No. 19, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1962 Jaffe, A.J.: HANDBOOK OF STATISTICAL METHOD FOR DEMOGRAPHERS, Washington, Government Printing Office, United States Department of Commerce, 1951, 94-108 pp. McVey, Wayne W. Jr.: GUIDE TO DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES, Population Research Lab, University of Alberta, September, 1969 Stone, L.D.: MIGRATION IN CANADA, REGIONAL ASPECTS, 1961 CENSUS MONOGRAPH, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1967 Stone,
URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN CANADA, 1961 CENSUS MONOGRAPH, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1967
- 17 -
APPENDIX
-18 COMPONENT REVIEW A. Fertility Trends in fertility are subject to great fluctuation with no specific pattern and are greatly dependent upon individual behavior as well as current socioeconomic conditions. A thorough analysis of the demographic as well as nondemographic factors underlying fertility variations is essential.
The age-specific fertility rate projections utilized in this report are based on a comprehensive analysis of fertility rates in Alberta undertaken by the Human Resources Research Council in their publication, "Population and Labor Force Projections for Alberta 1970-1985." Although the specific fertility rates in this publication are unrealistic when compared with current rates, it was decided that the fertility distributions contained within could be converted easily by the application of multiplicative factors so that the distributions would reflect the current Total Fertility values of 2.034 and 2.244 for the City and Sub-region respectively. The resulting distributions are contained in Table 5 The distributions in Table 5 were used to decline the fertility rates linearly from the initial year until 1985 and, thereafter, were held constant at 1985 levels.
B. Survival The cohort-survival projection method utilizes age-specific survival rates to calculate the number of survivors of one age group as it proceeds into the next higher age group. Again, the Human Resources Research Council publication has undertaken extensive historical analysis of mortality rates in Alberta and the projections in this report are based on these figures. The actual rates are contained in Table 6. Provincial rates were used for the Subregion but were modified slightly for the City. A factor of 1.0009 was applied
-19 -
to Table 1 to obtain the City rates. This factor reflects the slight difference in survival that exists between the City and Province as a whole.
The distributions in Table 5 were used to increase the survival rates linearly from the initial year until 1986 and thereafter, were held constant at the 1986 levels.
C. Migration At present, net migration rates are the most difficult to forecast. However, as a result of the rapid decrease in birth rates to below replacement level across Canada they are rapidly becoming the most significant factor in determining the future population growth or decline of the City of Edmonton.
Historical analysis of net migration indicates it to be a most unstable parameter and is consequently difficult to analyse for use in population projections. Sophisticated techniques for migration projections, have not yet been developed and therefore a residual method is often utilized as a basis for estimating the average net migration. In this method, two benchmark years are chosen, the natural increase between the two years is calculated and then subtracted from the net population increase between the benchmark dates, to yeild a net migration for that span. Thus the annual net migration for the Sub-region was estimated as indicated below where NM, P, B and D represent the net migration, population, births and deaths respectively for the indicated years: NM = P1971 - P1966 - (B67-71 - D67-71) = 515, 105 - 433, 760 - (48363 - 12995) = 45977
-20 -
This gives an average annual net migration of approximately 9,200 which was used as the medium migration rate for the Sub-region projections. The low and high estimates were 5,200 and 13,200 respectively.
The residual method was not used for estimating the net migration for the City of Edmonton, the reasons being apparent when Table 7 is examined. The net out migration of 4347 in 1973 is the first time in the history of Edmonton that this has occured and is most likely a temporary phenomenon. This net out migration is only part of a rapid plunge in the net migration rate that has occured since 1969. This plunge will, in all likelihood, reverse itself in the near future. A return to the high in-migration rates prior to 1970 is unlikely though when one considers that the sources of new migration will dry up as the population growth in the rest of Canada slows down. For this reason and in light of the most recent results in Table 3 a zero migration should be used in the low population projection. Values of 2,000 and 4,000 were chosen arbitrarily for the medium and high projections and again do not seem unreasonable when one considers recent trends, The low, medium and high migration rates for the City and Sub-region were distributed according to the projections reported in Table 8.
D. Population The 1971 Federal Census Population results were used in conjunction with the 1973 Civic Census results to estimate the 1973 population distribution by single years of age for the City of Edmonton (see Table 9). The 1971 Federal Census results were also used to obtain the population distribution by single years of age for the Edmonton Sub-region (see Table 10).
TABLE PROJECTED AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES, 1971, 1985, FOR CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB-REGION EDMONTON SUB-REGION AGE 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
LOW ASSUMPTION 1971 1985 0.0053 0.0150 0.0362 0.0648 0.1065 0.1191 0.1497 0.1563 0.1607 0.1630 0.1595 0.1519 0.1284 0.1149 0.1001 0.0871 0.0718 0.0661 0.0547 0.0541 0.0422 0.0361 0.0311 0.0247 0.0237 0.0170 0.0138 0.0091 0.0078 0.0039 0.0025 0.0016 0.0008 0.0004 0.0001
TOTAL 2.1800 FERTILITY RATE
MEDIUM ASSUMPTION 1971 1985
CITY OF EDMONTON HIGH ASSUMPTION 1971 1985
LOW ASSUMPTION 1971 1985
MEDIUM ASSUMPTION 1971 1985
HIGH ASSUMPTION 1971 1985
0.0048 0.0127 0.0256 0.0518 0.0910 0.1070 0.1314 0.1414 0.1499 0.1559 0.1501 0.1448 0.1154 0.1071 0.0909 0.0828 0.0613 0.0563 0.0467 0.0413 0.0292 0.0242 0.0182 0.0159 0.0134 0.0069 0.0051 0.0039 0.0032 0.0025 0.0021 0.0015 0.0005 0.0004 0.0001
0.0056 0.0176 0.0405 0.0745 0.1081 0.1338 0.1473 0.1516 0.1571 0.1595 0.1531 0.1455 0.1273 0.1172 0.1020 0.0912 0.0796 0.0698 0.0627 0.0575 0.0506 0.0422 0.0369 0.0224 0.0256 0.0187 0.0145 0.0110 0.0085 0.0050 0.0029 0.0013 0.0008 0.0003 0.0001
0.0053 0.0169 0.0390 0.0718 0.1040 0.1288 0.1417 0.1458 0.1512 0.1535 0.1474 0.1400 0.1225 0.1128 0.0981 0.0877 0.0766 0.0672 0.0603 0.0553 0.0487 0.0405 0.0355 0.0311 0.0246 0.0180 0.0139 0.0106 0.0081 0.0048 0.0028 0.0013 0.0007 0.0003 0.0001
0.0057 0.0191 0.0427 0.0745 0.1161 0.1258 0.1569 0.1651 0.1731 0.1757 0.1623 0.1536 0.1310 0.1167 0.1036 0.0895 0.0743 0.0682 0.0602 0.0576 0.0473 0.0421 0.0346 0.0315 0.0256 0.0190 0.0157 0.0109 0.0091 0.0045 0.0029 0.0020 0.0011 0.0007 0.0002
0.0062 0.0224 0.0468 0.0756 0.1213 0.1326 0.1647 0.1744 0.1796 0.1892 0.1729 0.1580 0.1360 0.1200 0.1069 0.0943 0.0777 0.0699 0.0634 0.0595 0.0514 0.0450 0.0370 0.0339 0.0275 0.0215 0.0171 0.0125 0.0101 0.0051 0.0039 0.0021 0.0010 0.0005 0.0002
0.0048 0.0136 0.0328 0.0587 0.0965 0.1080 0.1357 0.1418 0.1457 0.1478 0.1446 0.1378 0.1164 0.1042 0.0908 0.0790 0.0651 0.0600 0.0496 0.0490 0.0382 0.0327 0.0282 0.0224 0.0215 0.0154 0.0125 0.0083 0.0071 0.0036 0.0022 0.0015 0.0007 0.0004 0.0001
0.0043 0.0093 0.0231 0.0470 0.0825 0.0970 0.1192 0.1282 0.1360 0.1414 0.1361 0.1313 0.1046 0.0971 0.0824 0.0751 0.0556 0.0510 0.0423 0.0374 0.0265 0.0219 0.0165 0.0145 0.0122 0.0063 0.0046 0.0036 0.0029 0.0022 0.0019 0.0014 0.0004 0.0004 0.0001
0.0050 0.0160 0.0367 0.0675 0.0980 0.1213 0.1336 0.1374 0.1424 0.1446 0.1389 0.1319 0.1155 0.1063 0.0925 0.0827 0.0721 0.0633 0.0569 0.0521 0.0459 0.0382 0.0335 0.0294 0.0232 0.0170 0.0131 0.0100 0.0077 0.0045 0.0027 0.0012 0.0007 0.0003 0.0001
0.0048 0.0154 0.0354 0.0650 0.0943 0.1168 0.1285 0.1322 0.1371 0.1392 0.1336 0.1269 0.1110 0.1023 0.0890 0.0795 0.0695 0.0609 0.0547 0.0502 0.0441 0.0367 0.0322 0.0283 0.0223 0.0163 0.0126 0.0096 0.0074 0.0043 0.0025 0.0012 0.0007 0.0003 0.0001
0.0052 0.0174 0.0387 0.0675 0.1052 0.1140 0.1422 0.1498 0.1570 0.1594 0.1471 0.1392 0.1188 0.1058 0.0939 0.0812 0.0674 0.0619 0.0546 0.0523 0.0429 0.0382 0.0314 0.0285 0.0233 0.0173 0.0142 0.0099 0.0083 0.0041 0.0027 0.0018 0.0010 0.0006 0.0001
0.0057 0.0203 0.0424 0.0686 0.1100 0.1202 0.1494 0.1582 0.1629 0.1716 0.1567 0.1433 0.1233 0.1088 0.0969 0.0855 0.0704 0.0633 0.0574 0.0540 0.0466 0.0408 0.0335 0.0308 0.0250 0.0195 0.0155 0.0113 0.0092 0.0046 0.0036 0.0019 0.0009 0.0004 0.0001
1.8953
2.2423
2.1669
2.3189
2.4402
1.9255
1.7163
2.0422
1.9649
2.1029
2.2126
SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, MARCH 1974
PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY & E.R. NICHOLSON
TABLE 6 AGE-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL RATES BY SEX AND SINGLE YEARS OF AGE, 1971, 1986 AGES 0-44 AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
1971 MALE FEMALE 0.98067 0.99678 0.99871 0.99917 0.99956 0.99958 0.99963 0.99965 0.99969 0.99970 0.99970 0.99968 0.99962 0.99949 0.99935 0.99915 0.99901 0.99881 0.99862 0.99842 0.99831 0.99817 0.99810 0.99808 0.99809 0.99815 0.99820 0.99827 0.99835 0.99838 0.99841 0.99839 0.99840 0.99838 0.99835 0.99828 0.99820 0.99808 0.99794 0.99776 0.99754 0.99728 0.99704 0.99679 0.99654
0.98496 0.99706 0.99892 0.99959 0.99954 0.99965 0.99967 0.99968 0.99969 0.99972 0.99971 0.99972 0.99971 0.99969 0.99965 0.99962 0.99958 0.99956 0.99952 0.99950 0.99949 0.99946 0.99947 0.99945 0.99945 0.99944 0.99942 0.99941 0.99939 0.99935 0.99933 0.99927 0.99924 0.99918 0.99910 0.99904 0.99896 0.99887 0.99878 0.99869 0.99857 0.99847 0.99833 0.99817 0.99799
AGES 45-90+ MALE
1986 FEMALE
0.98725 0.99680 0.99873 0.99919 0.99958 0.99952 0.99957 0.99959 0.99963 0.99964 0.99974 0.99977 0.99975 0.99962 0.99948 0.99932 0.99930 0.99909 0.99882 0.99864 0.99859 0.99855 0.99853 0.99855 0.99856 0.99851 0.99846 0.99853 0.99867 0.99875 0.99870 0.99864 0.99864 0.99866 0.99862 0.99853 0.99842 0.99831 0.99820 0.99804 0.99784 0.99760 0.99740 0.99719 0.99693
0.98972 0.99715 0.99901 0.99968 0.99963 0.99974 0.99973 0.99974 0.99975 0.99978 0.99977 0.99980 0.99978 0.99976 0.99972 0.99970 0.99967 0.99965 0.99962 0.99958 0.99957 0.99956 0.99957 0.99958 0.99959 0.99958 0.99955 0.99954 0.99953 0.99952 0.99949 0.99945 0.99942 0.99938 0.99933 0.99926 0.99920 0.99915 0.99908 0.99901 0.99891 0.99879 0.99868 0.99855 0.99842
AGE 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90+
1971 MALE 0.99625 0.99592 0.99553 0.99504 0.99449 0.99383 0.99312 0.99237 0.99158 0.99074 0.98983 0.98885 0.98776 0.98654 0.98526 0.98393 0.98248 0.98091 0.97920 0.97736 0.97544 0.97333 0.97102 0.96850 0.96589 0.96324 0.96031 0.95705 0.95373 0.94917 0.94339 0.93837 0.93253 0.92602 0.91916 0.91223 0.90483 0.89683 0.88829 0.87936 0,,86985 0.85995 0.84962 0.83890 0.81910 0.77399
FEMALE 0.99779 0.99757 0.99734 0.99711 0.99688 0.99662 0.99635 0.99604 0.99567 0.99527 0.99476 0.99422 0.99367 0.99311 0.99257 0.99197 0.99130 0.99053 0.98959 0.98852 0.98728 0.98587 0.98434 0.98266 0.98081 0.97887 0.97656 0.97388 0.97078 0.96741 0.96399 0.96003 0.95518 0.94970 0.94371 0.93752 0.93082 0.92321 0.91478 0.90554 0.89544 0.88431 0.87190 0.85796 0.84250 0.77080
MALE
1986 FEMALE
0.99655 0.99615 0.99575 0.99531 0.99482 0.99422 0.99358 0.99296 0.99229 0.99154 0.99066 0.98974 0.98861 0.98734 0.98604 0.98480 0.98341 0.98193 0.98031 0.97858 0.97675 0.97484 0.97247 0.96979 0.96703 0.96446 0.96183 0.95906 0.95792 0.96315 0.94476 0.94087 0.93503 0.92795 0.92086 0.91494 0.90837 0.90098 0.89312 0.88473 0.87587 0.86664 0.85729 0.84845 0.84106 0.79475
0.99826 0.99806 0.99788 0.99768 0.99746 0.99716 0.99688 0.99667 0.99645 0.99617 0.99574 0.99525 0.99479 0.99428 0.99370 0.99297 0.99218 0.99146 0.99070 0.98978 0.98857 0.98725 0.98593 0.98449 0.98282 0.98103 0.97879 0.97598 0.97278 0.96936 0.96656 0.96320 0.95809 0.95221 0.94604 0.94069 0.93545 0.92901 0.92192 0.91396 0.90490 0.89438 0.88204 0.86703 0.84846 0.77626
SOURCE: HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH COUNCIL, POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS FOR ALBERTA, 1970-1985, TABLES 3.10a and 3.10b
TABLE 7 NET MIGRATION FOR CITY OF EDMONTON, 1960 - 1973 YEAR
MALES
FEMALES
TOTAL
1960
1337
276
1613
1961
405
-403
2
1962
1546 x
1963
771
1964
1319 x
2865
1313
2084
4290 x
4517 x
8807
1965
3145
3900
7045
1966
1807
1849
3656
1967
3127
2784
5911
1968
5373
4812
10185
1969
3545
2203
5748
1970
423
124
547
1971
367
122
489
1972
505
-417
88
1973
-1981
-2366
-4347
x Estimated Value
SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY
TABLE 8 ASSUMED AGE-SEX COMPOSITION OF MIGRANTS BY SINGLE YEARS OF AGE AND SEX
Single Years of Age 0 1 2 3 4 0- 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 - 9 10 11 12 13 14 10 - 14 15 16 17 18 19 15 - 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 - 24 25 26 27 28 29 25 - 29 30 31 32 33 34 30 - 34 35 36 37 38 39 35 - 39 40 41 42 43 44 40 - 44
Ages 0 - 44 Males
Females
.01036 .01137 .01193 .01211 .01197 .05774 .01156 .01096 .01021 .00939 .00855 .05068 .00771 .00690 .00637 .00627 .00654 .03380 .00681 .00696 .00797 .01021 .01318 .04513 .01600 .01891 .02084 .02117 .02041 .09733 .01972 .01894 .01791 .01671 .01538 .08866 .01391 .01228 .01089 .00994 .00928 .05631
.00895 .00986 .01038 .01055 .01044 .05018 .01009 .00956 .00892 .00820 .00747 .04424 ,00675 .00606 .00562 .00553 .00577 .02973 .00599 .00604 .00701 .00934 .01244 .04082 .01538 .01847 .02026 .01997 .01831 .09239 .01678 .01512 .01357 .01240 .01148 .06935 .01037 .00914 .00812 .00741 .00692 .04197
.00858 .00789 .00723 .00658 .00596 .03623 .00539 .00488 .00442 .00401 .00364 .02234
.00644 .00601 .00558 .00512 .00465 .02780 .00424 .00388 .00355 .00327 .00304 .01798
Ages 45 - 90+ Single Years Males of Age 45 .00331 46 .00301 47 .00274 48 .00248 49 .00224 45 - 49 .C1378 .00203 50 51 .00185 52 .00169 53 .00157 54 .00147 50 - 54 .00862 55 .00139 56 .00132 57 .00126 58 .00122 59 .00119 55 - 59 .00637 60 .00116 61 .00114 62 .00112 63 .00108 64 .00103 60 - 64 .00552 65 .00098 66 .00094 67 .00089 68 .00082 69 .00074 65 - 69 .00438 70 .00066 71 .00058 72 .00051 73 .00046 74 .00042 70 - 74 .00262 75 .00038 76 .00034 77 .00030 78 .00027 79 .00024 75 - 79 .00152 80 81 82 83 84 80 - 84 85 86 87 88 89 85 - 89 90+ All Ages
SOURCE:
Females .00283 .00264 .00248 .00231 .00216 .01241 .00202 .00190 .00182 .00180 .00181 .00936 .00183 .00185 .00186 .00184 .00181 .00919 .00178 .00175 .00170 .00162 .00152 .00836 .00142 .00132 .00122 .00115 .00109 .00620 .00103 .00097 .00090 .00082 .00072 .00444 .00063 .00055 .00047 .00041 .00037 .00243
.00019 .00017 .00015 .00013 .00012 .00076 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00010
.00032 .00028 .00023 .00019 .00015 .00117 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00001 .00009
.00000
.00000
.53189
.46811
HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH COUNCIL, POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS Table 5.7 FOR ALBERTA, 1970 - 1985
TABLE 9 1973 CITY OF EDMONTON POPULATION a. AGE
MALES
FEMALES
TOTAL
0-4
20,748
19,566
40,314
5-9
23,342
22,393
45,735
10-14
23,408
22,212
45,620
15-19
21,010
22,181
43,191
20-24
22,782
24,963
47,745
25-29
18,537
17,885
36,422
30-34
14,412
14,059
28,471
35-39
14,029
13,236
27,265
40-44
13,574
12,807
26,381
45-49
12,060
12,333
24,393
50-54
9,657
9,980
19,637
55-59
8,153
8,592
16,745
60-64
6,295
6,578
12,873
65-69
4,755
5,189
9,944
70-74
3,276
3,761
7,037
75-79
2,160
2,832
4,992
80-84
1,474
1,822
3,296
85-89
717
939
1,656
90+
278
369
647
220,667
221,697
442,364
TOTAL
a. ESTIMATED FROM 1971 FFDERAL CENSUS
SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, MARCH 1974 PREPARED BY: G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON
TABLE 10 1971 EDMONTON SUB-REGION POPULATION
AGE
MALES
FEMALES
TOTAL
0-4
24,846
23,490
48,336
5-9
28,459
27,225
55,684
10-14
28,505
26,825
55,330
15-19
24,935
25,331
50,266
20-24
24,906
27,136
52,042
25-29
21,080
20,875
41,955
30-34
17,240
16,670
33,910
35-39
16,715
15,510
32,225
40-44
16,100
14,806
30,906
45-49
13,930
14,081
28,011
50-54
10,896
11,375
22,271
55-59
9,120
9,725
18,845
60-64
6,975
7,376
14,351
65-69
5,380
5,727
11,107
70-74
3,761
4,197
7,958
75-79
2,528
3,144
5,672
80-84
1,695
2,013
3,708
85-89
806
1,021
1,827
90+
305
396
701
258,182
256,923
515,105
TOTAL
SOURCE: 1971 FEDERAL CENSUS PREPARED BY: G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON