Edmonton (Alta.) - 1974 - City of Edmonton and Edmonton sub-region_population projections

CITY OF E D

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ION PRO

THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT RESEARCH & LONG RANGE PLANNING BRANCH •1974

CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB-REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS

PREPARED BY: RESEARCH AND LONG RANGE PLANNING BRANCH PLANNING DEPARTMENT APRIL, 1974

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Lists of Tables, Maps and Figures

ii

Introduction

1

Glossary of Terms

2

Analysis of Projections

3

Bibliography

15

Appendix: Component Review

17

LIST OF TABLES TABLE

Page

1. Population Projections for the City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-region

7

2. Percentage Annual Growth Rates of the Projected Population of the City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-Region, 1972 - 2001

8

3. Projected Population of the Edmonton Sub-region by Sex and Five Year Age Groups, 1972, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 2001 .

9

4. Projected Population of the City of Edmonton by Sex and Five Year Age Groups, 1974, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 2001 . 10 5. Projected Age-Specific Fertility Rates, 1971, 1985, for City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-Region

21

6. Age-Specific Survival Rates by Sex and Single Years of Age, 1971, 1986

22

7. Net Migration for City of Edmonton, 1960 - 1973

23

8. Assumed Age-Sex Composition of Migrants by Single Years of Age and Sex

24

9. 1973 City of Edmonton Population

25

10. 1971 Edmonton Sub-region Population

26

LIST OF MAPS MAP 1. Edmonton and Sub-region

Page 5

LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1. Actual and Projected Populations for City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-region

Page

6

2. Projected City of Edmonton Age and Sex Distribution Pyramids, 1974 - 2001

11

3. Projected Edmonton Sub-Region Age and Sex Distribution Pyramids, 1972 - 2001

13

INTRODUCTION The determination of the future growth of the population of the City of Edmonton and Edmonton Sub-Region is of primary importance for all aspects of urban administration. Realistic estimates of changes in the size of the population based upon the best available infoimation is imperative in planning to meet the future requirements of both the local community and surrounding area. Any study, whether it concerns itself with long range growth patterns or with a specific public facility, requires an estimate of the number of persons likely to be involved in or affected by future developments.

This report meets the requirements for info wation on future city and subregional population growth. The population estimates were obtained by the cohort-survival method of projection which utilizes separate assumptions for each of the components of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration. The assumptions are in turn based upon historical analysis and current evaluation of component information. However, while these projections use the best available information, they must be considered only as approximations due to the uncertainties of predicting future component behavior.

Three projections, low, medium, and high, are given for both the City of Edmonton and the Edmonton Sub-region to provide latitude of choice. Tables are also supplied to indicate projected age and sex distributions, as well as average annual growth increase percentages.

- 2 -

GLOSSARY

OF

TERMS

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE

the annual births per 1,000 women in a given age group divided by the number of women in that age group at midyear. The tetm "age-specific" is also understood to mean "sex-specific."

AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATE (DEATH RATE)

the annual number of deaths reported per annum at a given age (and sex) per 1,000 people in that age (and sex) category.

AGE-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL RATE (SURVIVAL RATIOS)

1,000 minus the crude mortality rate by age and sex of cohorts.

COHORT

a group of people born in the same time period.

COHORT-SURVIVAL METHOD

a method of forecasting annual population size by age and sex groups from the latest census with calculations made for each of the three major components of population change: deaths, births, and net migration,

EDMONTON SUB-REGION

the area surrounding the City of Edmonton which interacts socially, physically and economically with the City. (See Map 1).

NATURAL INCREASE

the annual births minus the annual deaths.

NET MIGRATION

the difference between the annual population increase and the annual natural increase (i.e., Population Increase - Births+ Deaths = Net Migration)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

the sum of the age-specific fertility rates. The average number of children born to one thousand women between the ages 15-49.

-3ANALYSIS OF PROJECTIONS A detailed analysis of the results of the projections is not presented in this report since the user may best discern which portion of the data will be of most benefit. Rather, a few general comments have been made concerning some of the more significant results.

The most notable feature of the projections appears in Table 1 and Figure 1.

It can be seen from these that the majority of the population growth for the Sub-region has occured outside the City's boundaries. This is a result of the relatively low net-migration assumption for the City as compared to that of the Sub-region. If this trend in the net-migration continues, the population within the current City boundaries will grow much slower than in the past while the surrounding coimuunities will experience significantly large population increases. The relatively large net-migration rates for the Sub-region may be unrealistic when one considers the various population projections that are being done for Canada as a whole. These Canada-wide projections typically are predicting a population for Canada of approximately 30 million at the turn of the century and that its population will stabilize at this level or decline slowly. This is less than a 40% increase over the present population of 22 million. Pence, if the projections for Canada hold true the sources for new migrants will steadily diminish. Perhaps in this case, the low Sub-region projections would be more realistic.

The age and sex projections in Table 3 and Table

4 show that there will be

significant changes in the population structure in the future. For the Subregion, the 0-19 school children age groups will decline from 41% to 34%, the

-4-

20-64 working age group will increase from 53% to 59% and the 65 and over senior citizen age groups will increase from 6% to 7% during the period from 1971 to 1986. The above percentages are derived from the entire population for the years 1971 and 1986 respectively. These shifts in the composition of the population will have profound educational, economic and social ramifications on the City and Sub-region in the future.

The Planning Department deems that the medium projections for the City and Sub-region are more valid than the low or high projections when current trends are considered. Therefore, it is recommended that the medium projections be used whenever possible. The low and high projections are included in the report as indicators to what may happen if the current fertility, mortality and net-migration rates alter significantly. If such an alteration occurs new projections will be produced that reflect these altered rates.

In conclusion it can be said that the general rate of population growth for the City and Sub-region is considerably subdued and that current decreases in net-migration and fertility will continue to keep this rate down. It is left up to others to evaluate the specific implications or impacts of these projections.

PREPARED BY; G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON APRIL, 1974

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Figure 1 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS FOR CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB—REGION 1,300000

1,200,000-

1,100,000(a) 0, 1,000,000(b) 900,000-

0 800,000— E < _J

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500,000City of Edmonton 400,000-

300,000-

200,000 1961

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I

(a) High fertility, 13,200 annual migration (b) Medium fertility, 9,200 annual migration (c) Low fertility, 5,200 annual migration Source: City of Edmonton, Planning Department March, 1974

Iri, 1981 YEAR

,

1 , 1986

,

I , 1991

F

I 1996

,----2001

(d) High fertility, 4,000 annual migration (e) Medium fertility, 2,000 annual migration (0 Low fertility, 0 annual migration Prepared by. G. R. Kelly E. R. Nicholson

Table 1 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR THE CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB-REGION a.

EDMONTON SUB-REGION

CITY OF EDMONTON YEAR 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 L.994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

LOW b

447854 453805 459773 465724 471629 477465 483219 488881 494444 499903 505249 510473 515560 520551 525427 530166 534744 539137 543329 547317 551098 554677 558061 561256 564276 567129 569829 572374

MEDIUM c

449854 458122 466503 474972 483504 492081 500686 509311 517947 526586 535220 543834 552413 560932 569366 577685 585861 593872 601709 609373 616875 624226 631436 638517 645483 652348 659122 665809

HIGH d

LOW e

451854 462622 473605 484774 496101 507566 519155 530861 542680 554605 566628 578739 590919 603080 615192 627223 639143 650931 662579 674095 685493 696790 708013 719186 730337 741490 752657 763843

527417 540003 552743 565606 578561 591586 604659 617767 630893 644019 657123 670180 683160 696033 708765 721408 733925 746289 758479 770503 782359 794058 805615 817044 828364 839588 850733 861794 872776 883671

IEDIUM f 531417 548352 565610 583167 600995 619072 637376 655890 674598 693479 712508 731658 750899 770194 789501 808785 828009 847147 866194 885156 904049 922893 941702 960497 979300 998126 1016992 1035901 1054858 1073858

HIGH g 535417 556851 578790 601208 624079 647380 671088 695192 719672 744510 769684 795168 820931 846936 873142 899404 925684 951962 978225 1004496 1030792 1057147 1083600 1110188 1136954 1163929 1191135 1218580 1246269 1274201

(a) Fertility rates declined to 1985, held constant thereafter. (b) Low fertility, 0 annual migration (c) Medium fertility, 2,000 annual migration - Recommended projection (d) High fertility, 4,000 annual migration (e) Low fertility, 5,200 annual migration (0 Medium fertility, 9,200 annual migration - Recomuended projection (g) High fertility, 13,200 annual migration

SOURCE: THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT MARCH, 1974

PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON

TABLE 2 PERCENTAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF THE PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE CITY OF EDMONTON AND THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION, 1972-2001 a.

EDMONTON SUB-REGION

CITY OF EDMONTON YEAR 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

LOW b

1.27 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.23 1.20 1.16 1.13 1.10 1.06 1.03 0.99 0.96 0.93 0.90 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.61 0.57 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.45

MEDIUM c

1.71 1.81 1.80 1.79 1.77 1.75 1.72 1.70 1.67 1.65 1.62 1.59 1.56 1.52 1.49 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.26 1.22 1.18 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.06 1.03 1.01

HIGH d

LOW e

MEDIUM f

HIGH g

2.15 2.33 2.32 2.31 2.29 2.26 2.24 2.21 2.18 2.16 2.13 2.10 2.07 2.02 1.97 1.92 1.87 1.82 1.76 1.71 1.67 1.63 1.59 1.56 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.47

2.34 2.34 2.31 2.28 2.24 2.21 2.17 2.13 2.09 2.04 2.00 1.95 1.91 1.85 1.80 1.76 1.71 1.66 1.61 1.57 1.52 1.48 1.44 1.40 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.29 1.26 1.24

3.07 3.09 3.06 3.02 2.97 2.92 2.88 2.83 2.78 2.73 2.68 2.62 2.57 2.51 2.45 2.39 2.33 2.26 2.20 2.15 2.09 2.05 2.00 1.96 1.93 1.89 1.86 1.83 1.80 1.77

3.80 3.85 3.80 3.73 3.67 3.60 3.54 3.47 3.41 3.34 3.28 3.21 3.14 3.08 3.01 2.92 2.84 2.77 2.69 2.62 2.56 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.36 2.32 2.29 2.26 2.23 2.20

(a) Fertility rates declined to 1985, held constant thereafter. (b) Low fertility, 0 annual migration (c)Medium fertility, 2,000 annual migration - Recommended projection (d) High fertility, 4,000 annual migration (e) Low fertility, 5,200 annual migration (0 Medium fertility, 9,200 annual migration - Recoitunended projection (g) High fertility, 13,200 annual migration

SOURCE: THE CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT MARCH, 1974

PREPARED BY. G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON

TABLE 3 PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE EDMONTON SUB-REGION BY SEX AND FIVE YEAR ACE GROUPS a.

1972, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 2001

36058 36616 35197

40123 40959 41100

37437 38115 38168

42887 42421 42711

32374 31935 37280 37624 36059 35353 25916 19699 17230 15565 13943 10518 7811 4639

39484 38249 38148 42257 42228 38052 34946 26984 19963 16834 14000 10224 6440 3725

36648 35689 35666 39574 38991 36864 35722 26054 19724 17076 15075 12982 9144 6013

2357 998

1655 750

2965 1272

42679 42792 42392 41069 43931 43057 38215 34503 26163 18869 15302 11995 8111 4341 2044

31575 29357 27152

37027 36136 33312

34553 33641 30917

38649 39345 37896

30236 31596 32379 33161 24604 18981 16910 15571 14442 11531 9560 6859 4758 2859

30612 35179 37616 35447 33812 26876 20577 18245 16222 13040 9386 6927 4448 2512

28613 33553 35325 34682 34540 25464 19480 17155 15669 14369 11246 8963 6003 3683

1253 523

31830 33447 32494 32068 25884 20131 18255 16617 13720 10235 8020 5576 3709 2015 929 468

1527 661

1108 515

1824 821

34912 33974 39344 40540 37172 34727 27221 20513 17787 15378 11906 8093 5521 3010 1383

298704

349758

343720

398999

390502

1976 MALES FEMALES

1981 FEMALES MALES

0-4 5-9 10-14

25006 23512 28379 27206 29277 27364

29201 27228 30233

27283 25591 28781

33811 31543 29005

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

25712 25940 22831 18306 16968 16523 14465 11488 9434 7287 5587 3923 2584 1683

30100 28305 29107 24091 19079 17783 16592 14019 10723 8730 6438 4671 2977 1707

28280 28650 30863 23197 18095 16402 15318 14339 11528 9773 7280 5427 3696 2426

85-89 901+

873

25868 27838 22997 17550 15917 15098 14422 11943 10090 7784 6046 4403 3240 2094 1061 423

911 395

256560 264857

302291

TOTAL

2001 MALES FEMALES

1991 MALES FEMALES

1972 MALES FEMALES

295

1996 FEMALES MALES

1986 MALES FEMALES

GROUPS

610

447983 437173

496122 483178

a. BASED ON THE "MEDIUM" FERTILITY ASSUMPTION AND AN ANNUAL NET MIGRATION OF 9,200 PERSONS SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, MARCH 1974

PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON

904

40023 39486 39665 39615 39954 39411 37963 40934 39780 37220 35730 25955 19492 16508 14015 11247 7031 3834 1606

544388 529470

TABLE 4

PROJECTED POPULATION OF THE CITY OF EDMONTON BY SEX AND FIVE YEAR AGE GROUPS a.

1974, 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 CROUPS

1974 MALES FEMALES

1976 MALES FEMALES

1981 MALES FEMALES

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29

20297 19015 23140 22270 23756 22403 21266 21943 22942 25290 19721 19476

20468 22442 23977 22594 22168 22176

19016 21574 22733 22148 24190 23330

22795 20960 22902 24383 23325 23046

30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

15058 14074 13758 12449 10046 8388 6555 4935 3420

14611 13363 12896 12593 10407 8874 6716 5402 3931

16916 14144 14044 13096 10988 8785 7138 5287 3737

16059 13677 13162 12775 11478 9295 7512 5799 4359

75-79 80-84 85-89

2207 1454 777 268

2900 1885 973

2357 1422 808

395

224509 225345

90+ TOTAL

1986 MALES FEMALES

1991 MALES FEMALES

1996 MALES FEMALES

21336 19473 21990 23126 22 934 25067

23768 23295 21416 23309 25115 24214

22225 21804 19884 22384 23918 23813

24041 24275 23757 21823 24043 26005

22472 22700 22224 20272 23175 24801

23439 24549 24740 24168 22561 24936

21908 22948 23122 22619 21059 24056

23368 23948 25015 25153 24901 23459

21842 22384 23372 23521 23411 21935

22800 17291 14327 14039 12902 10621 8263 6459 4513

23888 16394 13874 13243 12751 11369 9101 7206 5356

23680 23165 17465 14327 13831 12473 9997 7482 5522

25633 24236 16595 13962 13227 12635 11135 8731 6667

24849 24045 23308 17434 14115 13371 11732 9053 6394

24380 25985 24437 16678 13945 13112 12370 10678 8072

26636 25211 24180 23211 17160 13643 12571 10612 7735

25369 24730 26181 24492 16639 13818 12834 11849 9866

25570 26993 25343 24067 22810 16578 12825 11364 9056

24623 25721 24929 26225 24388 16472 13521 12292 10933

3029 2027 1045

2932 1580 769

3761 2309 1265

3567 1973 866

4629 2888 1465

4377 2400 1086

6125 3399 1619

441

405

554

432

686

487

5060 2945 1319 594

6968 4430 2269

309

5768 3554 1847 809

1010

721

8518 5338 2833 1240

232854

233649

254314

254997

275896 276517

296596

297276

315269

316167

332312

333498

a. BASED ON THE "MEDIUM" FERTILITY ASSUMPTION AND AN ANNUAL NET MIGRATION OF 2,000 PERSONS. SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, hARCH 1974

PREPARED BY: G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON

2001 MALES FEMALES

Figure 2

1974 AGE 9085-89 80-84

PROJECTED CITY OF EDMONTON AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION PYRAMIDS, 1974 — 2001a

75-79 70- 74 65-69

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0—4 40,000 30,000

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20,000 10,000

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POPULATION 1981

1976

AGE 90 —± 85-89 80-84 :-X

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10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

POPULATION a. Based on medium fertility assumption and an annual net migration of 2000 persons.

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Figure 2 (Cont'd) 1986

AGE

1991

90— + 85-89 80-84

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40,000 30.000 20,000 10,000

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75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

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40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

1996

AGE

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90--185-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

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40,000 30.000 20,000 10,000

0

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

POPULATION Source: City of Edmonton Planning Department March 1974

0

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

POPULATION

POPULATION 2001

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40.000 30,000 20,000 10,000

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10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

POPULATION Prepared by: G. R. Kelly E. R. Nicholson

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Figure 3 (Cont'd) 1986

Female

Male

Made

AGE

Female

90— -I•:•:;

85-89 80-84 :•••••

75— 79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59

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10-14 5—9

. ... • ... •.• 40,000 30 000 20O0 10,000

0-4 0

40.000 30,000 20,000 10,000

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Female

Male

0

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

POPULATION

POPULATION

1996

•:.:• • ' • •••:•••• "•••••:!:!••••wee.:.;:•: '.:0•••••••••••• %%Ye.'

AGE

2001

Female

Male

90—H85-89 80-84 75-79

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70-74 65-69 60-64

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55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29

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20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

0

10,000

POPULATION

Source: City of Edmonton Planning Department March, 1974

20,000

30,000

40,000

40,000 30.000 20,000 10,000

0

10,000 20,000

30,000

POPULATION Prepared by: G. R. Kelly E. Ft. Nicholson

- 15 BIBLIOGRAPHY Alberta, Government of, Alberta Bureau of Statistics: POPULATION FORECAST, 1971-1976-1981-1986, Alberta, Government of Alberta, April 1968 Alberta, Government of, Department of Public Health: ANNUAL REPORT OF THE DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH, VITAL STATISTICS DIVISION, Edmonton, The Queen's Printer, 1946-1970 Alberta, Government of, Oil and Gas Conservation Board: ALBERTA POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 1966-1996, Calgary, Government of Alberta, October, 1968 Anderson, Isabel: INTERNAL MIGRATION IN CANADA, 1921-1961, Economic Council of Canada Staff Study #13, March, 1966 Atchley, Robert C.: POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND ESTIMATES FOR LOCAL AREAS, Ohio, Scripps Foundation, 1970 British Columbia Research Council: POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN, 1966-1981, Technical Bulletin NO. 29, October, 1963 Calgary, City of, Planning Department: METROPOLITAN CALGARY POPULATION: HISTORICAL REVIEW, 1946-1970, Calgary, Planning Department, 1970 Calgary, City of, Planning Department: POPULATION FORECASTS: 1966-1991, Calgary, Planning Department, 1970 Canada, Government of, Dominion Bureau of Statistics; CENSUS OF POPULATION, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1941-1966 Canada, Government of, Dominion Bureau of Statistics: MIGRATION PROJECTIONS FOR CANADA, 1969-1984, ANALYTICAL AND TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM #6, Ottawa, November, 1970 Canada, Government of, Dominion Bureau of Statistics: THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR CANADA, 1969-1984, ANALYTICAL AND TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM #4, Ottawa, April, 1970 Edmonton, City of, Planning Department: DRAFT CHAPTER OF THE GENERAL PLAN #3, Edmonton, Planning Department, 1963 Edmonton, City of, Planning Department: METROPOLITAN EDMONTON POPULATION PROJECTIONS, 1971-2001, Edmonton, Planning Department, September, 1971 Edmonton, City of, Planning Department: METROPOLITAN EDMONTON POPULATION, 19461970, Edmonton, Planning Department, May, 1971 George, M.V. and Gn.anasekaran K.S.: POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS FOR ALBERTA, 1970-1985, Human Resources Research Council, March, 1972 Hauser, Philip M. and Duncan, Otis Dudley: THE STUDY OF POPULATION, The University of Chicago Press, 1959

- 16 -

Tiling, Wolfgang M.: POPULATION, FAMILY, HOUSEHOLD AND LABOUR FORCE GROWTH TO 1970, Economic Council of Canada Staff Study No. 19, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1962 Jaffe, A.J.: HANDBOOK OF STATISTICAL METHOD FOR DEMOGRAPHERS, Washington, Government Printing Office, United States Department of Commerce, 1951, 94-108 pp.

McVey, Wayne W. Jr.: GUIDE TO DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURES, Population Research Lab, University of Alberta, September, 1969 Stone, L.D.: MIGRATION IN CANADA, REGIONAL ASPECTS, 1961 CENSUS MONOGRAPH, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1967 Stone,

URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN CANADA, 1961 CENSUS MONOGRAPH, Ottawa, The Queen's Printer, 1967

- 17 -

APPENDIX

-18 COMPONENT REVIEW A. Fertility Trends in fertility are subject to great fluctuation with no specific pattern and are greatly dependent upon individual behavior as well as current socioeconomic conditions. A thorough analysis of the demographic as well as nondemographic factors underlying fertility variations is essential.

The age-specific fertility rate projections utilized in this report are based on a comprehensive analysis of fertility rates in Alberta undertaken by the Human Resources Research Council in their publication, "Population and Labor Force Projections for Alberta 1970-1985." Although the specific fertility rates in this publication are unrealistic when compared with current rates, it was decided that the fertility distributions contained within could be converted easily by the application of multiplicative factors so that the distributions would reflect the current Total Fertility values of 2.034 and 2.244 for the City and Sub-region respectively. The resulting distributions are contained in Table 5 The distributions in Table 5 were used to decline the fertility rates linearly from the initial year until 1985 and, thereafter, were held constant at 1985 levels.

B. Survival The cohort-survival projection method utilizes age-specific survival rates to calculate the number of survivors of one age group as it proceeds into the next higher age group. Again, the Human Resources Research Council publication has undertaken extensive historical analysis of mortality rates in Alberta and the projections in this report are based on these figures. The actual rates are contained in Table 6. Provincial rates were used for the Subregion but were modified slightly for the City. A factor of 1.0009 was applied

-19 -

to Table 1 to obtain the City rates. This factor reflects the slight difference in survival that exists between the City and Province as a whole.

The distributions in Table 5 were used to increase the survival rates linearly from the initial year until 1986 and thereafter, were held constant at the 1986 levels.

C. Migration At present, net migration rates are the most difficult to forecast. However, as a result of the rapid decrease in birth rates to below replacement level across Canada they are rapidly becoming the most significant factor in determining the future population growth or decline of the City of Edmonton.

Historical analysis of net migration indicates it to be a most unstable parameter and is consequently difficult to analyse for use in population projections. Sophisticated techniques for migration projections, have not yet been developed and therefore a residual method is often utilized as a basis for estimating the average net migration. In this method, two benchmark years are chosen, the natural increase between the two years is calculated and then subtracted from the net population increase between the benchmark dates, to yeild a net migration for that span. Thus the annual net migration for the Sub-region was estimated as indicated below where NM, P, B and D represent the net migration, population, births and deaths respectively for the indicated years: NM = P1971 - P1966 - (B67-71 - D67-71) = 515, 105 - 433, 760 - (48363 - 12995) = 45977

-20 -

This gives an average annual net migration of approximately 9,200 which was used as the medium migration rate for the Sub-region projections. The low and high estimates were 5,200 and 13,200 respectively.

The residual method was not used for estimating the net migration for the City of Edmonton, the reasons being apparent when Table 7 is examined. The net out migration of 4347 in 1973 is the first time in the history of Edmonton that this has occured and is most likely a temporary phenomenon. This net out migration is only part of a rapid plunge in the net migration rate that has occured since 1969. This plunge will, in all likelihood, reverse itself in the near future. A return to the high in-migration rates prior to 1970 is unlikely though when one considers that the sources of new migration will dry up as the population growth in the rest of Canada slows down. For this reason and in light of the most recent results in Table 3 a zero migration should be used in the low population projection. Values of 2,000 and 4,000 were chosen arbitrarily for the medium and high projections and again do not seem unreasonable when one considers recent trends, The low, medium and high migration rates for the City and Sub-region were distributed according to the projections reported in Table 8.

D. Population The 1971 Federal Census Population results were used in conjunction with the 1973 Civic Census results to estimate the 1973 population distribution by single years of age for the City of Edmonton (see Table 9). The 1971 Federal Census results were also used to obtain the population distribution by single years of age for the Edmonton Sub-region (see Table 10).

TABLE PROJECTED AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES, 1971, 1985, FOR CITY OF EDMONTON AND EDMONTON SUB-REGION EDMONTON SUB-REGION AGE 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

LOW ASSUMPTION 1971 1985 0.0053 0.0150 0.0362 0.0648 0.1065 0.1191 0.1497 0.1563 0.1607 0.1630 0.1595 0.1519 0.1284 0.1149 0.1001 0.0871 0.0718 0.0661 0.0547 0.0541 0.0422 0.0361 0.0311 0.0247 0.0237 0.0170 0.0138 0.0091 0.0078 0.0039 0.0025 0.0016 0.0008 0.0004 0.0001

TOTAL 2.1800 FERTILITY RATE

MEDIUM ASSUMPTION 1971 1985

CITY OF EDMONTON HIGH ASSUMPTION 1971 1985

LOW ASSUMPTION 1971 1985

MEDIUM ASSUMPTION 1971 1985

HIGH ASSUMPTION 1971 1985

0.0048 0.0127 0.0256 0.0518 0.0910 0.1070 0.1314 0.1414 0.1499 0.1559 0.1501 0.1448 0.1154 0.1071 0.0909 0.0828 0.0613 0.0563 0.0467 0.0413 0.0292 0.0242 0.0182 0.0159 0.0134 0.0069 0.0051 0.0039 0.0032 0.0025 0.0021 0.0015 0.0005 0.0004 0.0001

0.0056 0.0176 0.0405 0.0745 0.1081 0.1338 0.1473 0.1516 0.1571 0.1595 0.1531 0.1455 0.1273 0.1172 0.1020 0.0912 0.0796 0.0698 0.0627 0.0575 0.0506 0.0422 0.0369 0.0224 0.0256 0.0187 0.0145 0.0110 0.0085 0.0050 0.0029 0.0013 0.0008 0.0003 0.0001

0.0053 0.0169 0.0390 0.0718 0.1040 0.1288 0.1417 0.1458 0.1512 0.1535 0.1474 0.1400 0.1225 0.1128 0.0981 0.0877 0.0766 0.0672 0.0603 0.0553 0.0487 0.0405 0.0355 0.0311 0.0246 0.0180 0.0139 0.0106 0.0081 0.0048 0.0028 0.0013 0.0007 0.0003 0.0001

0.0057 0.0191 0.0427 0.0745 0.1161 0.1258 0.1569 0.1651 0.1731 0.1757 0.1623 0.1536 0.1310 0.1167 0.1036 0.0895 0.0743 0.0682 0.0602 0.0576 0.0473 0.0421 0.0346 0.0315 0.0256 0.0190 0.0157 0.0109 0.0091 0.0045 0.0029 0.0020 0.0011 0.0007 0.0002

0.0062 0.0224 0.0468 0.0756 0.1213 0.1326 0.1647 0.1744 0.1796 0.1892 0.1729 0.1580 0.1360 0.1200 0.1069 0.0943 0.0777 0.0699 0.0634 0.0595 0.0514 0.0450 0.0370 0.0339 0.0275 0.0215 0.0171 0.0125 0.0101 0.0051 0.0039 0.0021 0.0010 0.0005 0.0002

0.0048 0.0136 0.0328 0.0587 0.0965 0.1080 0.1357 0.1418 0.1457 0.1478 0.1446 0.1378 0.1164 0.1042 0.0908 0.0790 0.0651 0.0600 0.0496 0.0490 0.0382 0.0327 0.0282 0.0224 0.0215 0.0154 0.0125 0.0083 0.0071 0.0036 0.0022 0.0015 0.0007 0.0004 0.0001

0.0043 0.0093 0.0231 0.0470 0.0825 0.0970 0.1192 0.1282 0.1360 0.1414 0.1361 0.1313 0.1046 0.0971 0.0824 0.0751 0.0556 0.0510 0.0423 0.0374 0.0265 0.0219 0.0165 0.0145 0.0122 0.0063 0.0046 0.0036 0.0029 0.0022 0.0019 0.0014 0.0004 0.0004 0.0001

0.0050 0.0160 0.0367 0.0675 0.0980 0.1213 0.1336 0.1374 0.1424 0.1446 0.1389 0.1319 0.1155 0.1063 0.0925 0.0827 0.0721 0.0633 0.0569 0.0521 0.0459 0.0382 0.0335 0.0294 0.0232 0.0170 0.0131 0.0100 0.0077 0.0045 0.0027 0.0012 0.0007 0.0003 0.0001

0.0048 0.0154 0.0354 0.0650 0.0943 0.1168 0.1285 0.1322 0.1371 0.1392 0.1336 0.1269 0.1110 0.1023 0.0890 0.0795 0.0695 0.0609 0.0547 0.0502 0.0441 0.0367 0.0322 0.0283 0.0223 0.0163 0.0126 0.0096 0.0074 0.0043 0.0025 0.0012 0.0007 0.0003 0.0001

0.0052 0.0174 0.0387 0.0675 0.1052 0.1140 0.1422 0.1498 0.1570 0.1594 0.1471 0.1392 0.1188 0.1058 0.0939 0.0812 0.0674 0.0619 0.0546 0.0523 0.0429 0.0382 0.0314 0.0285 0.0233 0.0173 0.0142 0.0099 0.0083 0.0041 0.0027 0.0018 0.0010 0.0006 0.0001

0.0057 0.0203 0.0424 0.0686 0.1100 0.1202 0.1494 0.1582 0.1629 0.1716 0.1567 0.1433 0.1233 0.1088 0.0969 0.0855 0.0704 0.0633 0.0574 0.0540 0.0466 0.0408 0.0335 0.0308 0.0250 0.0195 0.0155 0.0113 0.0092 0.0046 0.0036 0.0019 0.0009 0.0004 0.0001

1.8953

2.2423

2.1669

2.3189

2.4402

1.9255

1.7163

2.0422

1.9649

2.1029

2.2126

SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, MARCH 1974

PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY & E.R. NICHOLSON

TABLE 6 AGE-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL RATES BY SEX AND SINGLE YEARS OF AGE, 1971, 1986 AGES 0-44 AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

1971 MALE FEMALE 0.98067 0.99678 0.99871 0.99917 0.99956 0.99958 0.99963 0.99965 0.99969 0.99970 0.99970 0.99968 0.99962 0.99949 0.99935 0.99915 0.99901 0.99881 0.99862 0.99842 0.99831 0.99817 0.99810 0.99808 0.99809 0.99815 0.99820 0.99827 0.99835 0.99838 0.99841 0.99839 0.99840 0.99838 0.99835 0.99828 0.99820 0.99808 0.99794 0.99776 0.99754 0.99728 0.99704 0.99679 0.99654

0.98496 0.99706 0.99892 0.99959 0.99954 0.99965 0.99967 0.99968 0.99969 0.99972 0.99971 0.99972 0.99971 0.99969 0.99965 0.99962 0.99958 0.99956 0.99952 0.99950 0.99949 0.99946 0.99947 0.99945 0.99945 0.99944 0.99942 0.99941 0.99939 0.99935 0.99933 0.99927 0.99924 0.99918 0.99910 0.99904 0.99896 0.99887 0.99878 0.99869 0.99857 0.99847 0.99833 0.99817 0.99799

AGES 45-90+ MALE

1986 FEMALE

0.98725 0.99680 0.99873 0.99919 0.99958 0.99952 0.99957 0.99959 0.99963 0.99964 0.99974 0.99977 0.99975 0.99962 0.99948 0.99932 0.99930 0.99909 0.99882 0.99864 0.99859 0.99855 0.99853 0.99855 0.99856 0.99851 0.99846 0.99853 0.99867 0.99875 0.99870 0.99864 0.99864 0.99866 0.99862 0.99853 0.99842 0.99831 0.99820 0.99804 0.99784 0.99760 0.99740 0.99719 0.99693

0.98972 0.99715 0.99901 0.99968 0.99963 0.99974 0.99973 0.99974 0.99975 0.99978 0.99977 0.99980 0.99978 0.99976 0.99972 0.99970 0.99967 0.99965 0.99962 0.99958 0.99957 0.99956 0.99957 0.99958 0.99959 0.99958 0.99955 0.99954 0.99953 0.99952 0.99949 0.99945 0.99942 0.99938 0.99933 0.99926 0.99920 0.99915 0.99908 0.99901 0.99891 0.99879 0.99868 0.99855 0.99842

AGE 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90+

1971 MALE 0.99625 0.99592 0.99553 0.99504 0.99449 0.99383 0.99312 0.99237 0.99158 0.99074 0.98983 0.98885 0.98776 0.98654 0.98526 0.98393 0.98248 0.98091 0.97920 0.97736 0.97544 0.97333 0.97102 0.96850 0.96589 0.96324 0.96031 0.95705 0.95373 0.94917 0.94339 0.93837 0.93253 0.92602 0.91916 0.91223 0.90483 0.89683 0.88829 0.87936 0,,86985 0.85995 0.84962 0.83890 0.81910 0.77399

FEMALE 0.99779 0.99757 0.99734 0.99711 0.99688 0.99662 0.99635 0.99604 0.99567 0.99527 0.99476 0.99422 0.99367 0.99311 0.99257 0.99197 0.99130 0.99053 0.98959 0.98852 0.98728 0.98587 0.98434 0.98266 0.98081 0.97887 0.97656 0.97388 0.97078 0.96741 0.96399 0.96003 0.95518 0.94970 0.94371 0.93752 0.93082 0.92321 0.91478 0.90554 0.89544 0.88431 0.87190 0.85796 0.84250 0.77080

MALE

1986 FEMALE

0.99655 0.99615 0.99575 0.99531 0.99482 0.99422 0.99358 0.99296 0.99229 0.99154 0.99066 0.98974 0.98861 0.98734 0.98604 0.98480 0.98341 0.98193 0.98031 0.97858 0.97675 0.97484 0.97247 0.96979 0.96703 0.96446 0.96183 0.95906 0.95792 0.96315 0.94476 0.94087 0.93503 0.92795 0.92086 0.91494 0.90837 0.90098 0.89312 0.88473 0.87587 0.86664 0.85729 0.84845 0.84106 0.79475

0.99826 0.99806 0.99788 0.99768 0.99746 0.99716 0.99688 0.99667 0.99645 0.99617 0.99574 0.99525 0.99479 0.99428 0.99370 0.99297 0.99218 0.99146 0.99070 0.98978 0.98857 0.98725 0.98593 0.98449 0.98282 0.98103 0.97879 0.97598 0.97278 0.96936 0.96656 0.96320 0.95809 0.95221 0.94604 0.94069 0.93545 0.92901 0.92192 0.91396 0.90490 0.89438 0.88204 0.86703 0.84846 0.77626

SOURCE: HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH COUNCIL, POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS FOR ALBERTA, 1970-1985, TABLES 3.10a and 3.10b

TABLE 7 NET MIGRATION FOR CITY OF EDMONTON, 1960 - 1973 YEAR

MALES

FEMALES

TOTAL

1960

1337

276

1613

1961

405

-403

2

1962

1546 x

1963

771

1964

1319 x

2865

1313

2084

4290 x

4517 x

8807

1965

3145

3900

7045

1966

1807

1849

3656

1967

3127

2784

5911

1968

5373

4812

10185

1969

3545

2203

5748

1970

423

124

547

1971

367

122

489

1972

505

-417

88

1973

-1981

-2366

-4347

x Estimated Value

SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT PREPARED BY G.R. KELLY

TABLE 8 ASSUMED AGE-SEX COMPOSITION OF MIGRANTS BY SINGLE YEARS OF AGE AND SEX

Single Years of Age 0 1 2 3 4 0- 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 - 9 10 11 12 13 14 10 - 14 15 16 17 18 19 15 - 19 20 21 22 23 24 20 - 24 25 26 27 28 29 25 - 29 30 31 32 33 34 30 - 34 35 36 37 38 39 35 - 39 40 41 42 43 44 40 - 44

Ages 0 - 44 Males

Females

.01036 .01137 .01193 .01211 .01197 .05774 .01156 .01096 .01021 .00939 .00855 .05068 .00771 .00690 .00637 .00627 .00654 .03380 .00681 .00696 .00797 .01021 .01318 .04513 .01600 .01891 .02084 .02117 .02041 .09733 .01972 .01894 .01791 .01671 .01538 .08866 .01391 .01228 .01089 .00994 .00928 .05631

.00895 .00986 .01038 .01055 .01044 .05018 .01009 .00956 .00892 .00820 .00747 .04424 ,00675 .00606 .00562 .00553 .00577 .02973 .00599 .00604 .00701 .00934 .01244 .04082 .01538 .01847 .02026 .01997 .01831 .09239 .01678 .01512 .01357 .01240 .01148 .06935 .01037 .00914 .00812 .00741 .00692 .04197

.00858 .00789 .00723 .00658 .00596 .03623 .00539 .00488 .00442 .00401 .00364 .02234

.00644 .00601 .00558 .00512 .00465 .02780 .00424 .00388 .00355 .00327 .00304 .01798

Ages 45 - 90+ Single Years Males of Age 45 .00331 46 .00301 47 .00274 48 .00248 49 .00224 45 - 49 .C1378 .00203 50 51 .00185 52 .00169 53 .00157 54 .00147 50 - 54 .00862 55 .00139 56 .00132 57 .00126 58 .00122 59 .00119 55 - 59 .00637 60 .00116 61 .00114 62 .00112 63 .00108 64 .00103 60 - 64 .00552 65 .00098 66 .00094 67 .00089 68 .00082 69 .00074 65 - 69 .00438 70 .00066 71 .00058 72 .00051 73 .00046 74 .00042 70 - 74 .00262 75 .00038 76 .00034 77 .00030 78 .00027 79 .00024 75 - 79 .00152 80 81 82 83 84 80 - 84 85 86 87 88 89 85 - 89 90+ All Ages

SOURCE:

Females .00283 .00264 .00248 .00231 .00216 .01241 .00202 .00190 .00182 .00180 .00181 .00936 .00183 .00185 .00186 .00184 .00181 .00919 .00178 .00175 .00170 .00162 .00152 .00836 .00142 .00132 .00122 .00115 .00109 .00620 .00103 .00097 .00090 .00082 .00072 .00444 .00063 .00055 .00047 .00041 .00037 .00243

.00019 .00017 .00015 .00013 .00012 .00076 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00010

.00032 .00028 .00023 .00019 .00015 .00117 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00002 .00001 .00009

.00000

.00000

.53189

.46811

HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH COUNCIL, POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS Table 5.7 FOR ALBERTA, 1970 - 1985

TABLE 9 1973 CITY OF EDMONTON POPULATION a.

AGE

MALES

FEMALES

TOTAL

0-4

20,748

19,566

40,314

5-9

23,342

22,393

45,735

10-14

23,408

22,212

45,620

15-19

21,010

22,181

43,191

20-24

22,782

24,963

47,745

25-29

18,537

17,885

36,422

30-34

14,412

14,059

28,471

35-39

14,029

13,236

27,265

40-44

13,574

12,807

26,381

45-49

12,060

12,333

24,393

50-54

9,657

9,980

19,637

55-59

8,153

8,592

16,745

60-64

6,295

6,578

12,873

65-69

4,755

5,189

9,944

70-74

3,276

3,761

7,037

75-79

2,160

2,832

4,992

80-84

1,474

1,822

3,296

85-89

717

939

1,656

90+

278

369

647

220,667

221,697

442,364

TOTAL

a. ESTIMATED FROM 1971 FFDERAL CENSUS

SOURCE: CITY OF EDMONTON PLANNING DEPARTMENT, MARCH 1974 PREPARED BY: G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON

TABLE 10 1971 EDMONTON SUB-REGION POPULATION

AGE

MALES

FEMALES

TOTAL

0-4

24,846

23,490

48,336

5-9

28,459

27,225

55,684

10-14

28,505

26,825

55,330

15-19

24,935

25,331

50,266

20-24

24,906

27,136

52,042

25-29

21,080

20,875

41,955

30-34

17,240

16,670

33,910

35-39

16,715

15,510

32,225

40-44

16,100

14,806

30,906

45-49

13,930

14,081

28,011

50-54

10,896

11,375

22,271

55-59

9,120

9,725

18,845

60-64

6,975

7,376

14,351

65-69

5,380

5,727

11,107

70-74

3,761

4,197

7,958

75-79

2,528

3,144

5,672

80-84

1,695

2,013

3,708

85-89

806

1,021

1,827

90+

305

396

701

258,182

256,923

515,105

TOTAL

SOURCE: 1971 FEDERAL CENSUS PREPARED BY: G.R. KELLY E.R. NICHOLSON