SD UBRARY
3053 ESTIMATE OF USAGE OF THE
T07418830/1963
TRAFFIC-RESEAR00R
ESTIMATE OF USAGE OF THE PROPOSED EDMONTON RAPM TRANSIT SYSTEM
Prepared for the Commissioner of Planning and Development, Edmonton, Alberta
by Traffic Research Corporation Limited Toronto, Ontario
January 29, 1963
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C.) The City of Edmonton PLANNING DEPARTMENT TRAFFIC RESEARCH CORPORATION LIMITED
a division of KCS Limited 20 Spadina Road Toronto 4, Ontario, Canada Telephone WA. 4-3381
January 29, 1963
Mr. Geoffrey C. Hamilton, Commissioner of Planning & Development, City Hall, EDMONTON, Alberta.
Planning Department The City of 1:La.:wawa
Dear Mr. Hamilton: We are pleased to submit herewith the report on our study of relative transit usage in Edmonton. The work carried out during the course of this project was in accordance with Stage 2 of our letter of proposal dated December 5, 1962. In order to arrive at estimates of patronage of the proposed Edmonton Rapid Transit System, we have made a detailed study of the factors which influence Edmonton residents in the way they chose to travel to work. We hope that the results of this study will prove useful to you in the process of the design of the Rapid Transit System. We are most grateful to you, and to Mr. D. L. MacDonald for providing the data required to execute this project. Yours sincerely,
1
H. G. von Cube Vice President HGvC:bmw Enclosure
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ESTIMATE OF USAGE OF THE PROPOSED EDMONTON RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM Table of Contents Page 1.
INTRODUCTION
2.
ESTIMATES OF PATRONAGE 2.1 2.2
3,
••
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2
1980 Travel Mode Choice in Edmonton Passenger Volumes •• •
•• 1 •
3 4
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EDMONTON MODAL SPLIT RELATIONSHIPS 3.1 3.2
Factors Determining Choice of Travel Mode.. •• Sources of Data .• •• •• Travel Time Ratio • • 3.2.1 Travel Cost Ratio •• .• 3.2.2 •• Service Time Ratio • • 3.2.3 •• •. •. Economic Status 3.2.4 •• Observed Travel Mode Choice in Edmonton 1961 Determining Modal Split Relationships 3.3.1 Observed Relationships •• 3.3.2 •• 3.3.3 Comparison of Modal Split Relationships 3.3.4 Extrapolation of Edmonton Relationships •
3.3
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS..
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Illustrations (see list of illustrations) APPENDIX - PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF USAGE OF THE PROPOSED EDMONTON RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM Illustrations (see list of illustrations)
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List of Illustrations
Figure 1
Expected Transit Share of Work Trips in Edmonton, 1980
Figure 2
Map of Analysis Zones
Figures 3-8
Modal Split of Work Trips based on 1961 Edmonton Data
Figure 9
Comparison of Edmonton and Toronto Modal Split Relationships
Figure 10
Modal Split of Work Trips based on 1961 Edmonton Survey Data and Data of other North American Cities.
Illustrations (Appendix) Plate 1
Proposed Edmonton Rapid Transit System
Plates 2a, 2b Design Speeds on E. T. S. Rapid Transit Plate 3
Edmonton 1961, Local Vehicle Speed Contours
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ESTIMATE OF USAGE OF THE PROPOSED EDMONTON RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM 1.
INTRODUCTION
Submitted in this report are revised estimates of the transit share of work trips destined for downtown Edmonton in 1980, The estimates are based on observations of travel mode choice in Edmonton and in other North American cities. Since they are based primarily on transit usage actually observed in Edmonton, they differ from the preliminary estimates reported in the Appendix, which were based entirely on data from other cities, In this case, observations of travel mode choice in other cities have been employed as corroborating evidence, and have been guide lines in the extrapolation of trends observed in Edmonton. 1961 Origin and Destination survey data for Edmonton, and supplementary information regarding the transit system and the general economic status, were analyzed during the course of our study. The findings of the analysis demonstrate the relative importance of time, cost, service, and economic status in travel mode choice. They show that time and service are the major determinants, while cost is less important. Nevertheless, it is observed that the sensitivity to service shown by trip makers increases as the transit trip becomes more expensive relative to the trip by private car. The estimates of patronage are reported in Section 2 of the report, and the procedures of derivation are discussed in Section 3. The techniques used involve the analysis of data reporting how people actually
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travelled, and are similar to those developed for the Metropolitan Toronto Planning Board and extended for the National Capital Transportation Agency to explain travel mode choice in Toronto and Washington,
D. C. respectively.
We wish to gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Mr. D. L. MacDonald and his staff of the Edmonton Transit System, who provided the necessary background information for the study. 2.
ESTIMATES OF PATRONAGE
We submit the following estimate of the transit share of work trips destined for downtown Edmonton in 1 980. Between 55 and 65 percent of the workers employed in downtown Edmonton can be expected to use the proposed Edmonton Rapid Transit System. The assumptions employed in making this estimate are similar to those described in our preliminary report, which is included in the Appendix. However, they have been modified somewhat in view of more recent and more complete information available. The primary basis for making the estimate is the observed transit usage in Edmonton today, supported by observations made in other North American cities. To avoid reiterating what has already been stated in our preliminary report, we will discuss here only those assumptions which have been altered. Average transit speeds were changed from 22 miles per hour to 17 miles per hour, to account for the change in specifications from high performance equipment to PCC-type equipment. Automobile running times were traced in detail from each trip origin to each downtown destination, and thereby eliminating the need for the blanket penalty of five minutes on bridge crossings. 2
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The estimates of transit patronage are based on the assumption that today's road speeds will be maintained in the design year. For example, the speeds on the bridges were taken to be: 32 m.p.h. on the Groat Bridge, 13 m.p.h. on the High Level Bridge, 16 m.p.h. on the 105th Street Bridge, 23 m.p.h. on the Low Level Bridge, 20 m.p.h. on the East End Bridge. The average automobile service time was reduced to 4 minutes, thereby eliminating the 2 minute "unparlcing" time at the residential end of the trip. This is a more conservative figure and it is in better agreement with values used in the other North American cities. The average income per worker in 1980, is estimated to be between $5500 and $6000. This figure is expressed in 1961 constant dollars and is based on an expected 30 to 50 percent increase in constant dollar income per worker. 2.1
1980 Travel Mode Choice in Edmonton
It is estimated that between 55 and 65 percent of trips made by those who work downtown will be made on the proposed rapid transit system. This estimate is based on the premise that a convenient ride will be offered, which will be almost comparable to that of the private automobile. For example, there will be at worst a 3 to 1 ratio of the transit to atiomobile service times. Depending on the residential location, the trip time will vary between being the same time as an automobile trip and being 25 percent longer. The out-of-pocket cost of a transit trip will be approximately onethird that of an automobile trip. Figure 1 demonstrates, for the travel conditions described, how probable, usage is related to the ratio of door-to-door transit and automobile
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times. The shaded area of the curve indicates what variation in the percent usage is possible. A description of the derivation of this relationship is reported in Section 3, 2.2
Passenger Volumes
The estimated passenger volumes are shown in Table I. They were obtained by applying the value of the minimum and maximum usage, as given in the graph of Figure 1, to estimates of total work trips, which were reported in the "Digest of Report on the Estimation of Edmonton's Future Population, Employment and Projected Employment Trips" prepared by Mr. D. L. MacDonald, Superintendent of the Edmonton Transit System. Because workers in Edmonton are more conscious of time than their counterparts in other cities, the percent transit usage is remarkably sensitive to small variations in travel time. Small differences in time ratio, due to slightly better transit coverage close to the downtown area, manifest themselves in noticeably higher usage by residents of zone 1 than by residents of zone 2 of the same sector. 3.
EDMONTON MODAL SPLIT RELATIONSHIPS
3.1
Factors Determining Choice of Travel Mode
The Edmonton Modal Split Relationships developed as part of this study show in quantitative form, for work trips, how the propensityb travel via public transit is related to four basic determinant factors. The relationships are based on analysis of the data of Origin-Destination (O-D) Surveys carried out in Edmonton during 1961. The four basic factors considered are:
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Relative travel time via public transit and private automobile. Relative travel cost via public transit and private automobile. Relative excess travel time via public transit and private automobile (also known as relative level of service or convenience). (4)
Economic Status of Trip Makers.
These factors were chosen as a result of earlier studies in Toronto and Washington involving multiple regression analyses, in which were studied the effects of a large number of variables on the propensity to use public transit. The four factors listed above were selected as having more independent significance than any others studied, andwereconsidered to have statistical significance great enough for traffic forecasting purposes. Usually there are more than two vehicular modes of travel available to most trip makers in urban areas. The division of these travel modes into two main types, public transit and private automobile, is significant, because of the fundamental differences in their properties. Public transit is characterized by fixed routes and schedules, while the use of private automobiles is accompanied by great freedom of choice of routes and departure times. These differences in flexibility and convenience have a marked effect on relative usage, which manifests itself clearly in the relationships described in this report. Detailed descriptions of the four basic determinants which influence travel mode choice are included below:
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(1)
Relative Travel Time
Relative travel time is expressed as a time ratio: door-to-door travel time via public transit, divided by door-todoor travel time via private automobile. The door-to-door time consists of two components, a running time and an excess or service time. (2)
Relative Travel Cost
This variable is also defined as a ratio: the out-of-pocket travel cost via public transit, divided by the out-of-pocket travel cost via private automobile. Transit travel cost in this ratio is defined as the total fare paid during the trip, while automobile travel cost is defined as operating cost (gasoline, oil, lubrication) and parking cost. Automobile depreciation, licensing and insurance costs are not included, on the assumption that most automobile drivers do not consider these costs in connection with each trip made by them. Travel costs via private automobile were considered for this study to be divided evenly among all occupants of an automobile, based on the cost sharing which usually exists in car pool arrangements. (3)
Relative Travel Service (Convenience)
Obviously, a number of factors affect the level of service offered by each mode of travel. Among these are a clean bright appearance of the vehicle, a pleasant view from the window, a reasonable temperature within the vehicle, a comfortable seat,
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uncrowded conditions, a smooth ride, flexibility of departure and arrival times to suite the desires of the travellers, and convenient transfers from one vehicle to another if this should be necessary. Many of these factors cannot be easily expressed in quantitative terms, and therefore, are not included in these relationships. For our purposes, the relative level of service has been expressed as this ratio: the "excess time" when travelling by public transit divided by the "excess time" when travelling by private automobile. Excess time is defined as the time spent en route but not actually riding in a vehicle. For public transit, this is the sum of the time spent walking from the point of origin to the nearest transit stop, the time spent waiting at this stop for the transit vehicle, the time (if any) spent transferring from one vehicle to another during the trip and the time spent walking to the point of destination from the nearest transit stop. For private automobile the excess time is the time spent walking to or from the parking place at origin and/or destination, plus the time spent parking or "unparking" the automobile at either end of the trip. (4)
Economic Status of Trip Makers
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is not necessarily a deterrent to transit usage, provided time, cost and convenience factors are competitive between public transit and private automobiles. Stratified time ratio diversion curves, showing the relationship between mode choice and the door-to-door travel ratios for each level of cost ratio and economic status, were derived from survey data of Edmonton. The sources of information are briefly outlined in the next section 3.2 and the relationships are described in section 3.3. 3.2
Sources of Data
The following were the main sources of data: (1)
Origin and Destination work trip data summaries from the 1961 census.
(2)
Maps showing the geography of the city and location of major transportation facilities.
(3)
Maps indicating average travel speed on city streets during the peak periods.
(4)
Transit route maps, schedules, and station-to-station transit operating times.
(5)
The interim report on a parking survey of a "Metropolitan Edmonton Transportation Survey Data Report".
(6)
Survey information reporting the average worker income for each traffic assignment zone or district.
The above information was analyzed in order to determine the 1961 transit usage by workers travelling to downtown, and their relative trip time, cost, service and economic status. The area of Edmonton was divided into approximately forty analysis zones, each containing one or more of the original traffic assignment zones of the Metropolitan Edmonton 8
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Transportation Survey. Figure 2 demonstrates the connection between our analysis zones
and the traffic assignment zones. All data for
work trips to downtown (zones 0001-0007) were summarized on the basis of origin and destination zones. The transit usage was determined for each origin and destination pair from the summarized data, i. e. the number of transit trips divided by the total number of transit plus automobile trips. The four determinant factors were derived from the data sources (2) to (6) listed above.
3.2.1 Travel Time Ratio The running time and excess time components of the door-to-door travel time were calculated for each origin and downtown destination interchange. The running time component for transit was determined by summing the scheduled station to station operating times of a likely transit route. Automobile running times were calculated in a similar manner, by summing the travel times on each road section of a likely auto route., They were based on average speeds observed on the Edmonton roads in a 1961 traffic survey. A description of the excess time follows in section 3.2.3, as the excess time is included in both the door-to-door travel time and the service time ratios. 3.2.2 Travel Cost Ratio Transit fares in 1961 were set according to the fare structure of the Edmonton Transit System, i. e. at a rate of 13 per trip. Automobile travel costs consisted of an operating cost which included fuel, oil, and lubrication costs, and one-hall the daily parking charge. The out-of-pocket -9-
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automobile costs were divided by the average automobile occupancy rate of 1.35 people per car. Fuel costs were calculated on the basis of trip length and average speed of travel, at a cost of 40 per gallon of fuel. Oil and lubrication costs were figured at the rate of $2.00 per month. The average auto parking costs were obtained for each downtown zone by reviewing the inventory of parking places, the average rate of utilization and the parking fee. The parking rates were estimated to be the following: metered curb parking at 5 per hour, customer lot parking at lq per hour, and commercial lot parking at 15-2(4 for the first hour and 10-15 thereafter. Each cost ratio was obtained by dividing the transit fare by the one-way auto travel cost. 3.2.3 Service Time Ratio The service time ratio is the ratio of excess travel times. Transit excess times were determined after a careful review of the transit routing and scheduled headways. Walking times in residential and downtown zones were based on estimates of the average walking distance to the nearest transit stop. Waiting and transfer times were calculated as one-half the scheduled headway time of transit routes in the origin zone and of the transfer routes completing the connection between the origin and destination. The waits and transfers were based on a likely route or combination of routes connecting each origin and destination zone. The automobile excess times were estimated to be 4 minutes at the work end of the trip, and negligible at the residelitial end. The 4 minute - 10 -
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figure agreed closely with the time used for Toronto, and included an â&#x20AC;˘average 3 minute walk to parking lots, and a 1 minute allowance for parking or "unparking" an automobile. 3. 2, 4 Economic Status Average worker incomes were derived from the income data of the Metropolitan Edmonton Transportation Survey, and from a special One Percent Census Survey. The average income for each analysis zone was classified into the following five income categories: $0000 to $2900 $2900 to $4500 $4500 to $5900 $5900 to $7100 $7100 and over These income ranges were adjusted to reflect the differences in the purchasing power of the dollar (consumer price index) between Edmonton and Toronto, and are therefore approximately 5 percent below the Toronto income levels. This means that a salary of $2900 in Edmonton is equivalent to a salary of $3100 in Toronto, and income levels are expressed in constant dollars of the Toronto base in order to permit later comparison of Modal Split Relationships. 3.3
Observed Travel Mode Choice in Edmonton 1961 3.3.1 Determining Modal Split Relationships Three of the determinants were divided into the following contour ranges: (1)
cost ratio is divided into four ranges from 0 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1.0, 1.0 to 1.5 and greater than 1.5
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These ranges were chosen such that they were identical with the ranges used with data of other North Amekican cities. After the Edmonton data was stratified into the various cost ratio, service ratio and economic status categories, it was correlated with the travel time ratio. Curves were determined by regression analysis and were plotted showing percentage use of public transit as it is related to the time ratio. Observations within equal time ratio intervals were grouped and plotted, and the total number of trips for each plotted point was listed. Linear or curvilinear curves were drawn as the best fit through the plotted data. The curves generally agreed with the least squares fit to the ungrouped data. 3. 3. 2 Observed Relationships Figures 3 to 6 demonstrate the stratified Edmonton relationships, which show the correlation between the transit share of work trips and the travel time ratio. By comparing all sets of relationships as shown in Figure 7, the effects of time, cost, service, and economic status can be observed. It is seen that usage is affected by changes in the time ratio. The usage of transit by low to medium income workers (economic status 1 and 2) drops from 60 percent at a time ratio of 1. 5 to 40 percent at a time ratio of 2.0. It is inferred from observations in other metropolitan areas that high income people will demonstrate a greater sensitivity to increasing time ratio. - 12 -
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Low to medium income people do not appear to be conscious of cost as long as the transit service is good. The same is true for higher income workers. Sensitivity to service appears to depend upon the relative cost of the trip. Workers are more conscious of service when the transit fare is greater than fifty percent of the automobile trip cost, than when the fare is less than fifty percent of the automobile cost. The differences in the effect of service level are demonstrated by Figure 8, where transit usage is related to the service ratio. A similar sensitivity to service is inferred for high income people, although it is not readily apparent from the limited data. It is noted, however, that Figure 7 shows a 5 percent difference in absolute usage between the second and third service levels for workers of economic status 3. The 5 percent difference is significant, since the average usage is only 15 to 20 percent, and the remainder may be captive riders who have no alternative means of transportation. On comparing the relationships for workers of economic status 1 and 2 with the relationships for workers of economic status 3, we observe a 20 percent difference in absolute usage for time ratios greater than 1.5. This is to be expected, because high income workers are more time conscious than low income workers. However, on the basis of data from other cities, it is expected that high incorm people will use transit at a similar rate, provided the transit trip time approximately equals the automobile trip time, i.e. time ratio is 1.00.
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3. 3. 3 Comparison of Modal Split Relationships The comparison of the Modal Split Relationships for Edmonton and Toronto is shown in Figure 9. It would appear that people in Edmonton are more time conscious, and their ridership is 10 to 20 percent lower in Edmonton than in Toronto for time ratios ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 respectively. The reaeons for the differences are not obvious, but it is not unreasonable to associate them with different size of the cities; since Toronto has a population of 1, 600, 000 while Edmonton has 330, 000 people. There may also be basic differences in the public acceptance of transit service. Since the people in Edmonton are more conscious of time than the people in Toronto, we expect that the two usage curves will intersect at time ratios of approximately 1.0. This would mean that between 70 and 80 percent of low income workers in Edmonton would use transit, and 65 to 75 percent of higher income workers would ride transit to work when the time ratio is 1.0. 3. 3. 4 Extrapolation of Edmonton Relationships By comparison with relationships of other cities, the Edmonton curves were extrapolated in the range where time ratios were less than 1.5. Figure 10 demonstrates the probable transit usage by workers with incomes ranging between $4500 - $5900. The relationship applies in the situation where the cost ratio is less than 0.5 and the service ratio varies from 1.5 to 3.5. There is a shaded area of the curve indicating the upper and lower
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limits of the predicted usage at the time ratio 1.0; that is, between 65 and 75 percent. 4.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The estimate of 55 to 65 percent transit usage for work trips is based on the assumption that sufficient parking spaces will be provided to serve the residual auto traffic at the stated parking rates. In addition, sufficient road space must be provided to allow the increased number of motorists to drive at travel speeds similar to those experienced in 1961. Our estimates are generally considered to be conservative, since they reflect the loading conditions on today's transit vehicles, and they reflect today's very favourable parking situation where people only walk an average of 3 minutes from the parking place to their work place and experience a 1 minute delay in parking. More precise estimates of patronage could be achieved if additional survey data of the 1961 Census were analyzed, in particular, survey data of workers in the $5500-$6000 income range. In addition, an attitude type survey might be conducted by interviewing workers in the $5500-$6000 income range to determine their attitude regarding improved service and how it might affect their usage of transit. The survey could be of a market research type, similar to the Edmonton Transit System Survey conducted in April, 1961, by M.R. C. Limited, but it would concentrate only on a particular segment of the population. A similar type of analysis of the travel mode choice of people who make trips for non-work type purposes, would be of interest to those planning future transportation for Edmonton. Approximately 50 percent of the daily -15-
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trips are made for non-work purposes, constituting a large market of potential transit passengers. The procedures similar to those outlined in this report could be employed to investigate the relationship between travel mode choice of non-work trip makers and the determinants. A complete knowledge of the Modal Split Relationships of work trips and non-work trips will be of considerable value to the transit and highway planners of Edmonton. It can be used in both short term and long term planning, to evaluate the transit share of a total market of travellers as well as the effects of new pricing or service policies before they are implemented. It is recommended that existing traffic assignment programs be modified to incorporate the Edmonton Modal Split Relationships. This modified assignment program would be most useful in evaluating proposed transportation systems in Edmonton. It could be employed to estimate the transit share, or automobile share, of a total market of travellers, and by doing so, assess the need for future transportation improvements such as street widenings, new freeway and new transit facilities with higher passenger capacity and speed. By the application of traffic assignment programs, the planner can determine a suitable schedule of construction priorities to meet the growing need for new transportation facilities.
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TABLE 1 TRANSIT PATRONAGE
Sector - Zone Intrazonal Total, Zone 0 SW 1 2 SW Total SW
Total Work Trips Minimum Transit Maximum Transit to downtown Patronage Patronage ( 6,600) 760 11,740 12,500
( 4,290) 420 5,280 5,700
( 4,950) 490 6,460 6,950
1 2
Total
S S S
2,830 2,460 5,290
1,420 1,110 2,530
1,700 1,350 3,050
1 2 3
Total
SE SE SE SE
210 8,040 2,860 11,110
140 4,420 1,290 5,850
160 5,230 1,570 6,960
1 2
Total
NE NE NE
3,810 10, 390 14, 200
2, 100 5, 200 7,300
2, 480 6, 230 8,710
1 2
Total
N N N
3,290 5,760 9,050
2,140 2, 880 5,020
2,470 3,460 5,930
1 2 3
Total
NW NW NW NW
7, 480 6,390 3, 410 17, 280
4, 860 3, 830 1, 880 10,570
5,610 4,470 2, 220 12,300
2 (total) Total Interzonals Total Intrazonals
11,250
7,310
8,440
80,680 6,600
44,280 4,290
52,340 4,950
GRAND TOTAL
87,280
48,570
57,290
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Traffic Research Corporation
APPENDIX
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF USAGE OF THE PROPOSED EDMONTON RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM
Prepared for the Commissioner of Planning and Development, Edmonton, Alberta
by Traffic Research Corporation Limited Toronto, Ontario
December 7, 1962
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TRAFFIC RESEARCH CORPORATION LIMITED
a division of KCS Limited 20 Spadina Road Toronto 4, Ontario, Canada Telephone WA. 4-3381
December 11, 1962 Mr. Geoffrey C. Hamilton, Commissioner of Planning and Development, City Hall, EDMONTON, Alberta. Dear Mr. Hamilton: We are pleased to submit herewith our preliminary estimate of the relative usage of the proposed Edmonton Rapid Transit System. The work carried out during the course of this project was in accordance with Stage 1 of our letter of proposal dated December 5, 1962. We are grateful to you and Mr. MacDonald for providing background information and helping to expedite this interesting and important work. We feel that our estimates of the transit proportion of workers travelling to downtown Edmonton will assist you in the design of the proposed Edmonton Rapid Transit System. These estimates are based on our judgment and experience gained from similar work in other cities. Investigation of survey data, as outlined in our letter of proposal for Stage 2 of the work, have commenced, and we expect the results will corroborate these preliminary estimates. Sincerely, (signed) H, 0
Vi311
Vice President
HGvC:am Enclosure
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PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF USAGE OF THE PROPOSED EDMONTON RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM 1.
INTRODUCTION In this report we submit the following estimate of the transit
proportion of work trips destined for downtown-Edmonton in 1980. Between 60 and 80 percent of the workers employed in downtown-Edmonton could be expected to use the proposed Edmonton Rapid Transit System. This estimate is made in accordance with a specified travel time base, and other assumptions regarding service, out-of-pocket travel costs, and the general economic level in Edmonton. The estimate is based upon observations of how people actually travelled in other cities when subject to various travel conditions. Among the various factors which have been shown to motivate people in choosing their mode of travel, the most significant are relative time, cost, and convenience of service. The degree to which they affect user reaction depends upon the economic status of the population. Empirical evidence of how people are motivated by time, cost and service, tends also to reflect such factors as the climate and loading conditions which existed at the time and place where the data were gathered. It should be noted, therefore, that our preliminary estimate of transit usage in Edmonton is based only on the general competitive position of transit with respect to motor vehicle travel, rather than on specific observations relative to Edmonton.
Traffic Research Corporation
We have observed that workers having moderate-to-high incomes will favour the use of mass transit facilities if they are offered service, travel times, and out-of-pocket costs which are equivalent to, or better than, those of travelling in private automobiles. Under travel conditions similar to those described for Edmonton, between 60 and 80 percent of workers travelling to downtown used transit in Toronto during 1956. During 1960-61 the usage of downtown workers in Washington was between 60 and 80 percent, and in Philadelphia between 70 and 90 percent. If the Edmonton Transit System were to operate its proposed rapid transit system, then at least 60 percent of the downtown-bound workers would use the system. The 80 percent usage might be achieved if every passenger had a seat and optimum train operation and service facilities were incorporated. The report includes estimates of patronage obtained by applying the minimum-maximum usage figures to total work trips destined to downtown, as reported in the "Digest of Reports on the Estimation of Edmonton's Future Population, Employment and Projected Employment Trips" prepared by Mr. D. L. MacDonald, Superintendent of Edmonton Transit System. The latter sections of the report outline the time base and the other assumptions referred to previously. Z.
ESTIMATES OF PATRONAGE
Estimates of patronage have been derived by applying values of the minimum and maximum usage to estimates of total work trips in 1980. The total work trip estimates, and the resulting values of minimum and maximum
Traffic Research Corporation
patronage are shown in Table 1, catalogued by sectors and zones. We have applied single, city-wide estimates of minimum and maximum percentage of usage in determining patronage, because of the general uniformity of service that will be provided throughout the Metropolitan area. Between various zones and sectors the usage will vary by a few percent at most. In all instances, usage should not fall below 60 percent. 3.
TIME BASE The choice between the transit mode and the automobile mode of
travel depends on the time required to complete a journey by each of the two modes. For the purposes of the estimate, the time spent on the rapid transit part of a journey was derived from the performance curves supplied by the staff of the Edmonton Transit System. The proposed rapid transit system is shown in Plate 1, and the route travel times in Plate 2. Automobile running times were based on a map of average local speeds which were observed on Edmonton streets during 1961-62. In doing so, it is implicitly assumed that the road system of the city will be maintained in such a way as to provide the same local average speed throughout the city in 1980 as exists today. The contours of local speeds are shown in Plate 3. Additional considerations were required to account for the time spent in travelling while not actually riding in a vehicle. These are described as follows.
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The frequency of service on rapid transit lines was defined to be 12 vehicles per hour over most of the line, and 24 vehicles per hour where the lines merged together. This involves average waiting time of slightly more than 2 minutes in the former case, and 1 minute in the latter. An average of 4 minutes was expected to be spent in reaching the ultimate destination from a downtown rapid transit station. This estimate is based on a review of station location with regard to expected employment centres. Automobile trips to downtown were considered to require 2 minutes service time to ''unpark" at the home end of the trip, and 5 minutes to park and walk to the ultimate employment destination. A bridge crossing of the North Saskatchewan River was assessed to take 5 minutes. This was to account for the traffic saturation on the bridge and approaches in the peak periods, particularly under winter conditions. The average time required to reach a rapid transit station depends on the access mode used, i. e, walk, feeder transit or private automobile. The following general procedure was employed in determining the access modes of travel, and hence average travel time to station. The area best served by each rapid transit station was delineated. Each area delineated was divided into two concentric sub-areas, an inner sub-area and an outer sub-area surrounding the station. The boundaries of the inner sub-area were determined so that the average walking time to the station was 5 minutes. A person living within the inner sub-area would take on the average 5 minutes to reach a station whether he walked, used transit, 0:- was the driver or
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passenger of an automobile. In the outside sub-area, the travel time was
based on average time, including walks and waits, by auto or transit. These assumptions are consistent with empirical evidence from other cities having rapid transit or commuter facilities. It has been observed in these localities that people choose feeder transit rather than automobile travel, where the time to the station compares favourably. The headways for the feeder transit service were assessed at 5 minutes in Zone 1, and 10 minutes in Zone 2. 4.
OTHER ASSUMPTIONS The average annual income of workers in Edmonton was expected
to exceed $6000. Traisit riders were required to pay 15รง per trip, with free transfers and free parking at several rapid transit stations. Automobile riders were required to pay $1.00 per day parking, 40 cents per gallon of gasoline, and $2.00 per month for other operating expenses. These costs were considered to be uniformly distributed to all auto riders, with an average vehicle occupancy rate of 1.35, based on the principle of cost sharing which usually exists in car pooling arrangements. 5.
SUMMARY The findings of this study show that a high rate of patronage could
be obtained if a rapid transit system having the assumed characteristics were installed in Edmonton. This conclusion is supported by observations made in metropolitan areas currently operating rapid transit systems, such as Toronto and Philadelphia.
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The proposed rapid transit system, supplemented by a good feeder transit system, and with good downtown distribution, would provide a convenient ride, comparable to that of private automobiles. A person could travel from home to work on the system in approximately the same time it would require to make the trip by private automobile, and the cost of the transit trip would be considerably less than that of an automobile trip.
6
Traffic Research Corporation
TABLE 1 TRANSIT PATRONAGE Total trips to C. B. D.
Maximum Transit Patronage ( 5, 280) 608 9, 392 10,000
( 6, 600) 760 11,740 12,500
Minimum Transit Patronage ( 3,960) 456 7,044 7,500
1 2
2,830 2,460 5, 290
1,698 1,476 3,174
2,264 1,968 4,232
Intrazonal Total, Zone 0 SW 1 SW 2 Total SW
Total
S 1 2 3
Total
SE SE SE SE
210 8,040 2,860 11,110
126 4,824 1,716 6,666
168 6,432 2,288 8,888
1 2
Total
NE NE NE
3,810 10,390 14,200
2,286 6,234 8,520
3,048 8,312 11,360
1 2
Total
N N N
3,290 5,760 9,050
1,974 3,456 5,430
2,632 4,608 7,240
1 2 3
7,480 6,390 3, 410
Total
NW NW NW NW
17,280
4,488 3,834 2, 046 10,368
5,984 5,112 2, 728 13,824
11,250
6,750
9,000
Total Interzonals Total Intrazonals
80,680 6,600
48,408 3,960
64,544 5,280
GRANT) TOTAL
87,280
52,368
69,824
2 (total)
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PRODOSED EDMONTON RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM SOURCE: E. T. S. Nov.1962
SCALE:
T. R.C. DEC. I92. 1,12012o11
LEGEND:
RAPID TRANSIT Roos Ait.wAYS SIICTO1L 60.46JCIARY Ze•411 11. c.‘1141:40.W
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E.T.S. RAPID TRANSIT TENTATIVE DESIGNS SHEET 1, JUNE 1962. 0B. LINE
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DI 962
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E.T.S. RAPID TRANSIT TENTATIVE DESIGNS -SHEET 2.JUNE 1962. 32
A” LINE
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18
16
16
14
14
TI MEINMINU TES
TIME INMI NUTES
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STATIONS
PROJ 2011
DEC. 1962
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