SEASONAL OUTLOOK
Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for spring 2021. Areas are based on the interim biogeographic regionalisation for Australia and other geographical features.
Normal fire potential
Below normal fire potential
SEASONAL BUSHFIRE OUTLOOK SPRING 2021: AUSTRALIA’S NATIONAL PICTURE OF FIRE POTENTIAL AFAC released the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for spring 2021 on 26 August, forecasting varied fire potential for locations across Australia. ALANA BEITZ AFAC BETHANY PATCH Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC
Fire potential can vary greatly, even at a smaller scale, between bordering states and territories. Each state and territory’s assessment considers different land use and vegetation types and is influenced by different forecasts for temperature and rainfall over these regions. The spring 2021 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook predicts above-normal fire potential for conditions over southeastern Queensland and northern NSW, driven by grass and crop growth in these areas. 36
FIRE AUSTRALIA
ISSUE FOUR 2021
In WA, the above-normal fire potential in the north is driven by grass growth and dry soil in the area. Below-normal fire potential is predicted across the ACT, NSW and Victoria as a result of vegetation recovering from the 2019–20 bushfire season. While most of Australia shows normal bushfire potential during the spring outlook period, destructive and deadly fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons across Australia. AFAC CEO Stuart Ellis AM said the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook is an important tool for fire authorities to prepare their operational response within their own jurisdiction and beyond state borders. “The outlook provides a national picture of what to expect over the coming months, and the evidence
base to make key hazard reduction and strategic operational decisions to reduce bushfire impact on Australian communities,” he said. “Increasingly, fire and emergency services work together to provide assistance across state and territory lines where needed. The outlook provides our Commissioners and Chief Officers Strategic Committee with the foresight to determine their collective capacity to share resources interstate if required.”
About the outlook
Fire management is a year-round process, and the outlook reflects the priorities in each state and territory for the coming months, given the expected climate conditions. It provides information to assist fire authorities in making strategic decisions such as
PHOTO: AFAC
Above normal fire potential
