Incorporating risk analysis into the contingency plan

of the risk presented by the disease, in qualitative, if not quantitative, terms. Most importantly, it will be possible to get an idea of how each disease ranks in relation to the risks of other high-priority diseases. In this context, a disease that had a high risk of entry to a country, but only had a low risk of establishment if it entered, or only had trivial potential socio-economic consequences for the country, would get only a low overall score in a risk assessment. Conversely, a disease assessed as having a low risk of introduction, but high consequences if introduced, would be rated more highly.

On the basis of this risk assessment and profiling, it should be possible to prioritize the risk associated with each of the diseases, and determine what level of resources should be devoted to preparedness planning for each disease.

It will also be possible to get some idea of the most likely sources and methods of entry of the disease agent and how the disease may spread in the country. The geographical pressure points for entry, establishment and spread of the disease also may be assessed. On the basis of this, it will become clear how and where preventive and disease surveillance strategies and programmes need to be strengthened.

Finally, it should indicate how veterinary services and contingency planning might need to be strengthened for the highest priority threat diseases.

risk management

In a very real sense, this entire manual is devoted to risk minimization and management strategies for emergency animal diseases. Identification of critical control points through the risk assessment process will prioritize the steps included in this manual which are needed to manage the risks.

risk communication

This is the process of exchanging information and opinions on risk between risk analysts and stakeholders. Stakeholders in this context would include all those who could be affected by the consequences of the risks (i.e. everyone from farmers to politicians). It is important that risk assessment and risk management strategies are fully discussed with stakeholders so that they feel comfortable that no unnecessary risks are being taken and that the risk management costs are a worthwhile ‘insurance policy’.

To ensure ownership of decisions, risk analysts and decision-makers should consult with stakeholders throughout the whole risk analysis process so that risk management strategies address stakeholder concerns, and decisions are well-understood and broadly supported.

IncorPoratIng rIsk analysIs Into the contIngency Plan

The results of the risk analysis for the appropriate disease should be incorporated into the specific disease contingency plan. With its discussion of risks and consequences, the risk analysis should prove to be a powerful weapon in persuading government decision-makers to approve the contingency plan.