Risk analysis processes in animal disease emergency planning

rIsk analysIs Processes In anImal dIsease emergency PlannIng

hazard identification

This should be done by constantly monitoring the international status and evolution of outbreaks of transboundary and emerging animal diseases. The latest scientific literature should be monitored also. This should be a routine function of the epidemiological unit of the national veterinary services. Apart from the scientific literature, a most valuable source of information would be from OIE (through its regular international disease reports, publication on import risk analysis and World Animal Health Information System – including the World Animal Health Information Database [WAHID] from 2005 and Handistatus from 1996 to 2004) and from the various reports and publications of the Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases1 (EMPRES) programme of FAO. Information on zoonoses is available from the World Health Organization (WHO). ProMed, an Internet server and mailing service, currently provides a useful forum for very rapid dissemination of unofficial information on animal, plant and human disease occurrences around the world. The Global Public Health Intelligence Network is a secure, Internet-based “early warning” system that gathers preliminary reports of public health significance in seven languages on a real-time basis.

risk assessment

Having identified and described the main disease threats, the next step is to assess how serious the threat of entry of each disease is and the routes and mechanisms by which it may enter. Questions which may be asked include: • What is their current geographical distribution and incidence around the world? • Is the distribution fairly static or has there been a recent history of spread to new countries, regions or continents? • Have any new antigenic subtypes emerged which may threaten countries that routinely vaccinate against the disease? • How close is the disease? What is the status of neighbouring countries, not only in respect to known presence of the disease, but also the level of confidence in their veterinary services to be able to detect and control outbreaks of the disease? • If the disease is present in neighbouring countries, where are the outbreaks nearest to shared borders? • Are there any feral or wild animal populations in the country which are susceptible to the disease and which may introduce the disease (e.g. through natural migrations) and/or act as a reservoir for the disease? • Is there a past history of introduction or occurrence of the disease in the country? Is it possible that it is still present in undetected, endemic pockets of domestic, feral or wild animals or birds? • How is the disease likely to be spread in the country? What would be the relative roles of live animals and their movements, fomites, meat or other animal products, insect vectors, wind-borne spread, etc. in transmitting the aetiological agent?

1 http://www.fao.org/empres

• Are there significant imports of potential risk animal species, meat products or other materials? Do they come from endemic regions? Do quarantine import protocols conform to OIE standards? How secure are import quarantine procedures? • How secure are barrier and border import controls/quarantine procedures to prevent unlawful entry of animals or risk materials? Is there smuggling, unofficial livestock movement, transhumance or other practices which would constitute a risk for entry of the disease? Is there political instability/civil unrest in neighbouring countries that might result in major movements of people and movement or abandonment of livestock? • Where are infected animals likely to cross the border and where are the main livestock trading routes from these areas? • Are there adequate biosecurity measures in-country to lessen the chance that exposure to susceptible animals will occur if a pathogen is introduced?

The next step is to evaluate how serious the socio-economic consequences might be if there is an incursion of the disease. Factors that may be taken into consideration include: • Is the disease likely to become established in the country? Are there susceptible livestock host populations, and in the case of arthropod-borne diseases, are there competent insect or tick vector species? • Is the disease likely to become established in feral animal or wildlife populations? • Will it be difficult to recognize the disease quickly in different parts of the country? • How large are the populations of susceptible livestock or poultry populations in the country? What are the livestock management and trading systems? How important are those livestock industries to the national economy? What is their importance in satisfying nutritional (food security) and other needs of communities? • How are these livestock industries structured within the country? Are there large commercial and/or intensive production industries or do they consist of smallholder/ village production or extensive pastoral systems? Is production concentrated in just a few areas of the country? • How serious will the production losses be from the disease? Will food security be threatened? What will be the socio-economic consequences? • Is there an actual or potential export trade in livestock or livestock products? If so, how important is this export trade for the national economy? What would be the likely reaction of importing countries if the disease was found in the country? What would the socio-economic consequences be, both at a local and national level, of the loss of export trade for an extended period? • What are the likely consequences on internal trade in livestock and livestock products? • Are there susceptible animal populations which are poorly controlled and allowed to roam freely, and which may constitute difficult-to-control reservoirs of infection? • How difficult and costly will the disease be to control and eliminate? Is it capable of eradication? All resources and both direct and indirect costs should be considered. • Are there likely to be adequate trained manpower and physical and financial resources available to mount an effective response against an incursion of the disease?

By addressing these questions and issues it will be possible to build a risk profile for each high-threat disease, uncover weaknesses and make judgements on the magnitude