Prepare: Risk analysis
Risk analysis processes in animal disease emergency planning Hazard identification This should be done by constantly monitoring the international status and evolution of outbreaks of transboundary and emerging animal diseases. The latest scientific literature should be monitored also. This should be a routine function of the epidemiological unit of the national veterinary services. Apart from the scientific literature, a most valuable source of information would be from OIE (through its regular international disease reports, publication on import risk analysis and World Animal Health Information System – including the World Animal Health Information Database [WAHID] from 2005 and Handistatus from 1996 to 2004) and from the various reports and publications of the Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases1 (EMPRES) programme of FAO. Information on zoonoses is available from the World Health Organization (WHO). ProMed, an Internet server and mailing service, currently provides a useful forum for very rapid dissemination of unofficial information on animal, plant and human disease occurrences around the world. The Global Public Health Intelligence Network is a secure, Internet-based “early warning” system that gathers preliminary reports of public health significance in seven languages on a real-time basis.
Risk assessment Having identified and described the main disease threats, the next step is to assess how serious the threat of entry of each disease is and the routes and mechanisms by which it may enter. Questions which may be asked include: • What is their current geographical distribution and incidence around the world? • Is the distribution fairly static or has there been a recent history of spread to new countries, regions or continents? • Have any new antigenic subtypes emerged which may threaten countries that routinely vaccinate against the disease? • How close is the disease? What is the status of neighbouring countries, not only in respect to known presence of the disease, but also the level of confidence in their veterinary services to be able to detect and control outbreaks of the disease? • If the disease is present in neighbouring countries, where are the outbreaks nearest to shared borders? • Are there any feral or wild animal populations in the country which are susceptible to the disease and which may introduce the disease (e.g. through natural migrations) and/or act as a reservoir for the disease? • Is there a past history of introduction or occurrence of the disease in the country? Is it possible that it is still present in undetected, endemic pockets of domestic, feral or wild animals or birds? • How is the disease likely to be spread in the country? What would be the relative roles of live animals and their movements, fomites, meat or other animal products, insect vectors, wind-borne spread, etc. in transmitting the aetiological agent? 1 http://www.fao.org/empres
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