agendaNi issue 120 Sept 2024

Education Minister Paul Givan MLA discusses

Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA outlines

Claire Sugden MLA on being an

Digital Government 2024

Rohan

Misdirected anger…

In August 2024, the Northern Ireland Assembly was recalled and political leaders gathered to condemn a spate of racist violence and “reject all forms of racism” in the region.

While the unified condemnation of violence and racism was welcome, it was a reactive approach to an issue that has long warranted a proactive approach for those charged with overseeing the delivery of effective public services.

While sporadic episodes of coordinated violence and damage to businesses made the headlines – much of which has been directed by paramilitaries who continue to exert influence on sections of our communities for their own ends 26 years years after the Good Friday Agreement was signed – more important was the number of people who hastily gathered in places like Belfast and Derry to outflank, outnumber, and counter the relatively small number of voices intent on acting out the hatefilled rhetoric which pervades social media.

That ‘anti-immigration’ protests made their way onto the streets of Northern Ireland will come as no shock to those paying attention to movements in not only neighbouring jurisdictions, but globally.

Brexit, and the associated rhetoric around borders, served as a petri dish for right-wing ideologies, whose radicalised campaigns of disinformation and racism have been afforded a much broader reach through online communities.

The result was that people impacted by the decline of their public services such as health, housing, and education have misdirected their anger at some of the most vulnerable people in our society.

While those intent on racist agitation are unlikely to be dissuaded, there is a need to proactively prevent those who unwittingly find themselves aligned with and manipulated by bad actors.

On an island with such a large diaspora, it is disappointing that it is now necessary to counter anti-immigration rhetoric with basic facts. For instance, net migration to Northern Ireland in 2022 – the latest data available – was just over 2,300, which is 0.1 per cent of the population. That migrants serve as the backbone of our health and social care system and are a critical part of our labour force. And that migrants serve to diversify and enrich our historically divided society for the betterment of future generations.

Alliance leader Naomi Long hit the nail on the head when addressing those she described as genuinely confused, frightened, or even angry about immigration, when she said: “Your anger is misdirected. The cause of hardship is lack of investment by the last [British] government in public services and housing. You are being manipulated by far-right groups and social media fakery.”

Countering racism requires a proactive approach across society, but a critical starting point is alleviating those public service challenges to which racism traditionally attaches itself and festers.

agendaNi Issue 120 September 2024

Editorial

David Whelan, Editor david.whelan@agendani.com

Fiona McCarthy fiona.mccarthy@agendani.com

Ciarán Galway ciaran.galway@agendani.com

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102 Public affairs

PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Beattie resigns as UUP leader

Doug Beattie MLA has resigned as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party after just 27 months in charge.

In his resignation statement, Beattie cited “irreconcilable differences” with party officers which meant that he felt an “inability to influence and shape the party going forward”.

Since his elevation to the leadership in May 2021, Beattie has guided the party through disappointing Assembly and local elections in 2022 and 2023 respectively. However, the party’s fortunes improved somewhat in the Westminster election in July 2024 as it won an MP for the first time since 2015.

Hopes had been high among Ulster Unionists when the appointment of Beattie, who took over the party leadership

HEALTH

Belfast children’s hospital facing decade long delay

A children’s hospital originally scheduled to open in in 2020 will not be completed until 2029 at the earliest, Health

Minister Mike Nesbitt MLA has revealed.

Nesbitt was responding to written questions posed by DUP MLA Diane Dodds who questioned delays to a new regional children’s hospital, incorporating a flagship maternity and children’s hospital, for which a business case was approved in 2011.

In March 2024, a five floor maternity building, originally scheduled to open in 2015, was completed, however, the discovery of bacteria in the water system means that intentions to have the site operational by 2025 is unlikely.

from Steve Aiken MLA in 2021 to become the party’s third leader in four years, saw the DUP fall below the UUP in opinion polling in the immediate aftermath. However, in spite of encouraging early polls, the ‘Beattie bounce’ was not sustained and the former British Army captain led the party to its worst Stormont election results in its history.

With the exception of Andy Allen, John Stewart, Robbie Butler (who has reportedly ruled out standing for the leadership), Colin Crawford (who has only been an MLA for one month at the time of writing), and Alan Chambers, all of the party’s MLAs have served as party leader, as has its one MP, and two of its three members of the House of Lords, meaning that the fate of the oldest party on this island is highly uncertain.

Citing that remediation works required to the water systems could have “a significant impact” on the occupation of the main building and further construction phases, including the construction of a link bridge, Nesbitt blamed delays to planned completion on a number of factors including planning approvals and third party issues among others.

Criticising that over £180 million has been spent to date with neither site operational, Dodds says: “It is unacceptable for public money to be squandered in this way. Many senior officials in the Minister’s department and arms-length bodies are employed specifically to ensure such projects are a success. Comprehensive answers are required, with full transparency and accountability.”

The new MLAs are: Michelle Guy, Alliance Party; Colin Crawford, Ulster Unionist Party; Peter Martin, DUP; and Timothy Gaston, TUV.

They succeed Sorcha Eastwood, Alliance; Robin Swann, Ulster Unionist Party; Alex Easton, independent; and Jim Allister, TUV, all of whom have been elected as MPs.

Peter Martin’s co-option to replace Alex Easton – who was elected to the Assembly in North Down as an independent in 2022 – is the first time a co-optee has come from a different political party to their predecessor, although Easton was a

ENVIRONMENT

High-level science advisory group to be established

The Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs is to establish a new high-level science advisory group (HLSAG).

Although members of the high-level science advisory group will not be public appointments, they will advise on the development of science and evidence-based policies across the Department’s remit.

With the recruitment competition underway to appoint members, Minister Andrew Muir MLA has confirmed that the appointments will be for three-year terms commencing in February 2025. The group will comprise of a chairperson and up to nine members.

New MLAs co-opted following Westminster election

DUP MLA for 18 years before he resigned his party membership in 2021.

The Northern Ireland Assembly is the only parliamentary body in the UK and Ireland where co-option is used, although it is utilised by the European Parliament and at local government level in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

A total of 39 of the 90 serving MLAs (43 per cent) first entered the Assembly via co-option, perhaps an indication of why co-option is so popular in Northern Ireland. In 2022, 96 per cent of the 23 MLAs who had been co-opted in the 2017-2022 term ended up winning re-election.

DAERA specifies that successful candidates will have experience and knowledge in any of the following science disciplines: agricultural science; animal science; climate adaptation and mitigation science; data science; marine, fisheries and aquatic systems; natural environmental sciences; plant science; and social science.

Muir says: “The expertise from the high-level science advisory group will be an important resource to help DAERA access, interpret, and understand the full range of relevant scientific information used in the development of evidencebased policies across my department’s scientific remit.”

Four new MLAs have taken seats in the Assembly after their predecessors were elected to the House of Commons.

matters arising

Non-domestic RHI scheme to close

The Department for the Economy will finally close a scheme which led to a three-year collapse of the Assembly after a £500 million overspend was projected in 2016.

The Executive is mandated to close the wider RHI scheme. When first introduced, the RHI scheme had no cap on subsidy payments, meaning that generators were able to acquire greater payments for greater accumulation of renewable heat generation.

Described by the Public Accounts Committee as “the biggest financial scandal since devolution”, the RHI Scheme was curtailed in 2016 and significant cuts in subsidies introduced in 2017 and 2019 brought it within budget.

When the Executive returned under the New Decade, New Approach in January 2020 (prior to its more recent collapse between 2022 and 2024), the Executive committed to close down RHI and replace it with a scheme that “effectively cuts carbon emissions”.

However, this commitment was not implemented and in February 2023, the Court of Appeal reaffirmed the need for a “proper permanent solution”. Since that judgement, Ofgem, the British Government’s gas and electricity regulator, has declared its intention to stop administering RHI.

Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA confirmed that legislation to secure closure will be developed in the short term and brought back to the Executive for final approval.

Murphy says: “The process is now underway to close RHI, provide participants with fair compensation, and use the available AME to effectively progress our net zero commitments.”

Around 90 per cent of waste produced in Northern Ireland is not being robustly monitored, creating considerable challenges for future waste management planning and forecasting, according to a Northern Ireland Audit Office (NIAO) report.

Around 7.7 million tonnes of waste are estimated to be generated annually in Northern Ireland. The report finds that, for 90 per cent of this waste, there is a “lack of available and accurate information”, with a reliance, instead, on estimates.

One million tonnes of this, mainly household waste, is collected by local councils. While detailed data on councilcollected waste is collated and publicly available, this only represents around 10 per cent of the total waste collected here.

90 per cent gap in waste management reporting

Among the report’s key findings are identified gaps in information regarding landfill capacity here. Northern Ireland currently has a legislative requirement to place a cap (of 10 per cent) on the proportion of total waste sent to landfill by 2035 but the Northern Ireland Environment Agency currently does not have a statutory requirement to track landfill capacities, meaning effective planning for the 2035 target could be “very challenging”.

Northern Ireland’s last Waste Management Strategy was published in 2013 and the timeframe of a planned new strategy by the end of 2023 has now been missed, while a 2023 publication date has yet to be confirmed.

“There is no place in our society for racism in any of its forms.”

First Minister Michelle O’Neill MLA speaking during the Assembly recall following racist attacks by far-right rioters.

“We have a blueprint for change but without drive and funding, the devastating consequences a broken system will continue to blight this society.”

Ulster University professor Deirdre Heenan on the failure to adequately fund the 10-year mental health strategy published in 2021.

“Irreconcilable differences between myself and party officers combined with the inability to influence and shape the party going forward means that I can no longer remain the party leader.”

Doug Beattie MLA resigning as Ulster Unionist Party leader.

“Incapable of justification, it’s clearly racist and does not represent the modern forward looking Northern Ireland that I know this place is.”

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer MP speaking about instances of raciallymotivated violence on a recent visit to the region.

General election 2024: Unionism gravitates away from the DUP

its dominance of nationalist politics, writes Joshua Murray.

Across the Irish Sea, the general election campaign had been accompanied with a vast array of opinion polling leaving little doubt that the Conservative Party was on course for a colossal defeat (the worst in the history of the party founded 190 years ago), and a return to power for the Labour Party for the first time since 2010.

At home, however, where we elect MPs from completely different parties to the same parliament, the scale of the change to take place among our cohort of MPs was unknowable before polling. Standout results include the collapse of the Paisley dynasty in North Antrim after 54 years, the unseating of Alliance Party deputy leader Stephen Farry in North Down, and Sinn Féin emerging as the largest Northern Ireland party –and fifth largest overall – in the House of Commons.

Sinn Féin is the clear winner of this election and has now completed a hat trick: it now holds the most seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly, in Westminster, and at local government level, success which party leader Mary Lou McDonald TD has argued is a mandate for the holding of an Irish reunification referendum.

For the DUP, it was a disappointing election result, but not for unionism as a whole. While the DUP now stands reduced from eight to five seats, two of those losses were to other unionists. In North Down, independent unionist and former DUP MLA Alex Easton MP secured a place in the House of Commons at the expense of Alliance deputy leader Stephen Farry, while the UUP’s decision to parachute in then-Health Minister Robin Swann MP to successfully contest the South Antrim seat – at the expense of the DUP’s Paul Girvan – now appears well judged.

Credit: Nail Carson.

DUP with wounds to lick

The decision by Alliance Party leader Naomi Long MLA to run, despite being the Executive’s sitting Justice Minister, meant that newly appointed DUP leader Gavin Robinson MP faced a tight contest in east Belfast. In the end though, his margin of victory over Alliance increased.

However, far less comfortable was the DUP’s North Antrim race. TUV leader Jim Allister’s initial confidence was widely dismissed, but as the votes were tallied, reality dawned that Allister, aged 71, was set to become the oldest person since 1929 to be first elected to the House of Commons, making him the first MP not called ‘Ian Paisley’ to represent North Antrim since 1970.

Allister has claimed that his election victory was the result of unionist backlash against the DUP’s support for the ‘sea border’ created by the nowousted Tory government’s Windsor Framework. However, the fact that the DUP also lost to the nonaligned Alliance Party in Lagan Valley, and to a relative moderate in Robin Swann in South Antrim shows that there is more to this DUP decline than meets the eye.

Former DUP MLA Jim Wells (himself a TUV candidate in South Down) claims that the ongoing Jeffrey Donaldson court case played a role in the decline of the DUP. Donaldson, who stated in a letter to his party that he strenuously contests historical allegations of rape and sexual assault against him, had been Northern Ireland’s longest serving MP, most recently securing a majority of 6,499 in Lagan Valley in 2019.

However, as Donaldson exited politics to face his trial, Jonathan Buckley MLA, who had been drafted in from Upper Bann to contest for the DUP, was unable to retain the seat for the party, with DUP leader Gavin Robinson MP acknowledging the “very difficult and challenging circumstances” which Buckley faced. For the first time since the constituency was created in 1983, Lagan Valley elected a non-unionist MP with Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood MP entering the House of Commons.

In South Antrim, the personal popularity of Robin Swann MP led the Ulster Unionist Party to regain representation in the House of Commons for the first time since 2017. Swann won what was expected to be a competitive race by a surprisingly comfortable majority of more than 4,000. The Ulster Unionists will have been further encouraged by strong increases in vote share in East Antrim (a 7.3 per cent vote share increase)

and Lagan Valley (a 4.2 per cent increase). Even in North Down, where candidate Tim Collins conceded exceptionally early and levelled an accusation that voters were more interested local challenges than national, the party increased its vote share by almost 4 per cent.

While this election was a bruising one for the DUP, it was very nearly an absolute catastrophe, with party veterans Gregory Campbell MP and Sammy Wilson MP both holding their seats by the narrowest of margins amid ferocious competition from Sinn Féin in East Derry and Alliance in East Antrim respectively.

In a vote that required a recount, Sinn Féin very nearly pipped the DUP to attain the East Londonderry seat. While Campbell had previously held a majority of close to 10,000 in 2019, the republican party ultimately lost by 179 votes. A surprising feat for a party which had been perceived as lacking momentum following belowpar performances in the Republic’s local and European elections one month prior.

Sinn Féin’s continued march

Superficially, Sinn Féin gained no seats in this election. Beneath the surface, however, the party increased its vote share in almost every constituency in which it stood, with East Antrim and north Belfast serving as the exceptions. Alongside the successful blooding of three new MPs, its proximity to victory in what was considered a safe unionist seat in East Londonderry, while reducing SDLP leader Colum Eastwood MP’s majority in Foyle from around 17,000 to just over 4,000, all add up to what will be considered an objectively successful campaign and, from the party’s perspective, an emphatic mandate for abstentionism.

Heading into the election, the party had been reported as lacklustre and low-key following disastrous polling trends in the Republic.

Arguably the most significant development in this election for Sinn Féin was when former General Secretary of the Royal College of Nursing (RCN), Pat Cullen MP, was unveiled by the party as the candidate in the traditionally ultra-marginal Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

Although boundary changes marginally benefitted Sinn Féin in the constituency (analysis shows it would have increased Michelle Gildernew’s 2019 majority from 0.1 per cent to 0.9 per cent), Cullen secured a staggering 8.9 per cent higher than the Ulster Unionist Party’s Diana Armstrong, amounting to a majority of 4,571, which is on a 4

issues agenda

par with Michelle Gildernew’s 2005 majority when the unionist parties did not commit to an electoral pact.

In Sinn Féin’s safer seats, the party successfully elected some new faces, with Dáire Hughes MP elected in Newry and Armagh with a record majority of more than 15,000 and replacing Mickey Brady as the MP, while former councillor Cathal Mallaghan MP was elected in Mid Ulster – the former constituency of Martin McGuinness – with a majority of just under 15,000 as Francie Molloy retired from politics. The party further increased its majorities in South Down (despite the SDLP’s much remarked upon hopes that it might retake the seat), West Tyrone, west Belfast, and north Belfast, expanding John Finucane MP’s majority.

Although Mary Lou McDonald TD has ostensibly taken the results as a mandate for the holding of a referendum on Irish reunification, the new Labour government in Britain and Taoiseach Simon Harris TD have ruled out a referendum in the immediate term. However, recently departed Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar TD has called on the next Irish government to prioritise taking the steps towards Irish unity in the next Dáil, for which an election is due by March 2025.

The SDLP has maintained its role in ensuring that nationalist MPs sit in the House of Commons. While this is a point

of contention for some republicans, the fact that Sinn Féin maintains its absence from the House of Commons while the SDLP takes the Westminster plunge could, from a nationalist perspective, play complementary roles in securing nationalism’s broad objectives. However, as 2017 showed, Sinn Féin does have the capability of wiping out the SDLP.

Labour’s ‘broad and shallow’ landslide

Polls had consistently projected that the Labour Party was to win a landslide victory, largely attributed to the will of people in Britain to oust a Conservative government which had presided over ‘Partygate’, high inflation, the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng budget, among other scandals.

If the writing on the wall was not obvious, the Conservatives’ decision to announce the party’s Chief of Staff Liam BoothSmith on the dissolution honours list, even before polls had closed, gave some insight into the party’s anticipated demise. Keir Starmer MP has emerged as the 58th Prime Minister – only the seventh ever from the Labour Party – and has managed to garner this following a campaign where he made the case for ‘change’, ‘the politics of service’, and several other prefabricated clichés.

While Labour’s victory, in seat terms (411 of the 650 House of Commons seats), is

essentially on a par with Tony Blair’s 1997 and 2001 landslides, the party underperformed in the polls in popular vote terms, only garnering a 33.7 per cent share of of the popular vote despite polls consistently projecting that Labour would win at least 40 per cent. Labour’s victory is the smallest vote share to secure a majority government in British history.

In broad terms, Labour led a strategy of not campaigning in its incumbent seats which resulted in the party maintaining its 2019 results and even incurring some losses, while simultaneously campaigning heavily in Tory ‘safe seats’, resulting in some large-scale swings. While it made hundreds of seat gains from the Tories, Labour also recorded some losses. Most prominently, it lost Islington North to former party leader Jeremy Corbyn MP, who ran as an independent after being refused the party whip by Starmer, and elsewhere to four independents who campaigned on their advocacy for a ceasefire in Gaza.

The Labour Party was the beneficiary of a complete vote collapse for the Conservative Party, which won only 121 seats, its worst election results in its history both in seat terms and popular vote terms, as the party secured only 24 per cent of the popular vote. The Tories lost votes in all directions, with five seats lost to Nigel Farage MP’s Reform UK, two seats to the Green Party, losing a seat to

Credit: Sinn Féin

Pat Cullen’s victory in Fermanagh and South Tyrone arguably removes the constituency from the ‘ultra marginal’ column.

the SNP (despite the SNP being virtually wiped out in Scotland and finishing just two seats ahead of Sinn Féin), to Labour in overwhelming numbers, and to the Liberal Democrats in overwhelming numbers.

The scale of the Tory defeat can be summarised by the fact that four of the five seats held by the Tory prime ministers since 2010 were lost. In addition, 12 cabinet secretaries lost their seats, joined in their defenestration by arch-Brexiteers Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker.

Reflections

This election was a disappointment for the DUP, but far from disastrous for unionism more broadly. What Gavin Robinson MP described as the “very difficult and challenging circumstances” around the charging of Jeffrey Donaldson seems to have played a role in the DUP losing Lagan Valley. However, more fundamental introspection is needed for the DUP as it lost to its right in North Antrim and to its left in South Antrim.

For Alliance, this election was very much a subpar performance, with Stephen Farry’s heavy defeat in North Down and Naomi Long’s failure to gain east Belfast being somewhat offset by the gain of Lagan Valley. Furthermore, strong second place performances in East Antrim and Strangford mean that the party has something to build on.

For nationalism, Sinn Féin can be satisfied with its performances and a clear pathway to potential future gains in East Londonderry and Foyle, as well as successfully carrying out successions in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Newry and Armagh, and Mid Ulster, where the party had popular incumbents pre-election.

The SDLP has survived to fight another day and retained its two MPs, which may be in nationalism’s interests broadly. The party will be buoyed by the scale of popular incumbent Claire Hanna MP’s majority of more than 12,500 votes from her nearest competitor, in the redrawn boundaries of Belfast South and Mid Down, though Sinn Féin’s absence here will have played some role. However, the scale of the reduction of Colum Eastwood MP’s majority will mean that nerves abound for nationalism’s second party.

In Britain, the Tories are down but probably not out. This election had the potential to existentially threaten the very existence of the party, with some polls projecting that it could fall behind the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. While the Tories will undergo a debate as to whether to tact to the right and sweep Reform UK’s support (acceding to that ‘party’s’ raison d’être) or to tact to the centre to try and gain back seats lost to the Liberal Democrats, its existence as one of the two major parties in the UK into the future is likely secure.

With a new Labour government taking power in Britain, there has already been a much vaunted “reset” promised by the new Prime Minister Keir Starmer MP in British-Irish relations, and the most profound implications of this election for Northern Ireland from the other side of the Irish Sea may be a renegotiation to come on Britain’s Brexit deal with the EU, a new approach to legacy, the potential uplift of public finances, and reforming Stormont, something which has been supported by new Secretary of State Hilary Benn MP.

A jubilant Keir Starmer MP, accompanied by his wife Victoria, as he becomes seventh Labour Prime Minister to enter Downing Street.

Communicating economic growth

organisation’s evolution from telecoms supplier to a managed service provider and outlines “ambitious growth plans” for the Northern Ireland market.

Housed in its relatively new home of just over 18 months, Gheel believes that eir evo’s location in Northern Ireland is synonymous with the organisation’s recent journey.

Situated on the 10th floor of The Vantage, a newly refurbished Grade A office building on Belfast’s Great Victoria Street, eir evo boasts an office location and layout which is attractive to the talent demands of its current and future employees.

However, of equal importance is eir evo’s office space configuration which enables customer events and customer engagement to underpin what Gheel describes as a “customer-centric ethos” in the delivery of unrivalled end-to-end managed communications and IT services for local businesses.

Although only launched as a brand in 2021, eir evo’s footprint in Northern Ireland stretches back to 2007 when parent company eir – the largest telecommunications company on the island of Ireland – successfully entered the market through the establishment of a government network across the entire Northern Ireland Civil Service and the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI).

At that time, the construction of two custom-built fibre networks specifically for Northern Ireland, also enabled the attraction of enterprise customers. Today, eir evo is now the networking partner of choice for many of Northern Ireland’s top 100 companies. Additionally, eir manages a contact centre and a very large network for all ‘blue light’ services in Northern Ireland, incorporating around 25,000 users and 35,000 endpoints.

Acquisition

In 2018, eir was acquired by NJJ Telecom Europe, which served as a catalyst for the merger between eir business and Evros Technology Group, and the formation of eir evo. Combining telecoms and technology expertise, the partnership offers end-to-end solutions across telecoms and IT services.

The NJJ acquisition also prompted a £10 million upgrade to its regional carrier fibre network across Northern Ireland, including the introduction of new

“We are supplier agnostic, meaning that we can be fully customer-led on the managed services we are providing, and we can tailor our solutions.”

eir evo UK’s Clair Gheel

technologies. Total investment in its core fibre network has exceeded £28 million in the past 15 years and Gheel explains that as a result, the organisation is in “significant growth mode”.

Describing eir evo’s offering as “unique” in a local context, Ghell explains: “Building on our established capability which has been present in the Northern Ireland market since 2007, the merger has enabled eir evo to offer an extended portfolio of managed services.”

The Sales and Marketing Director points to the integration of a technology solution stack on top of the existing telecoms network, alongside eir evo’s security practice and business application as akin to a ‘one-stop shop’ that can service the needs of businesses and organisations across Northern Ireland.

“At eir evo, we empower organisations to evolve and transform. We leverage the latest technologies across communications, cloud, cybersecurity,

connectivity, and more, so businesses can innovate, evolve, and grow with endto-end solutions provided by a single partner,” she says.

Relationships

Underpinning eir evo’s market presence is its access to skills and expertise, not only on an all-island basis but across its global business base, meaning that it can lean on global experience, while maintaining a domestic presence for customers.

Gheel explains: “We have a fantastic relationship with our customers here in Northern Ireland, which is exemplified by a very high retention rate. Our customercentric ethos means that we know our customers personally and when they need to contact us, they can speak with people they have dealt with for a decade or longer, and who are experts in their specific needs. We have established these relationships and built our extended portfolio upon them. 4

“Having the breadth and depth of a pool of engineers across the island has been really beneficial, and added to that, collaboration with the wider group brings further weight, strength, credibility, and expertise to the table, which is a fantastic asset to have.”

In addition, eir evo is backed by decades of partnerships with the world’s leading technology providers, including premium partner status with the likes of Microsoft, Cisco, HPE, Dell, Citrix, Palo Alto, and Fortinet.

Reliability

As eir evo seeks to build on its public sector, enterprise, and more recently, third sector customer base, Gheel explains that while the solutions being delivered are evolving, eir evo understands that customer expectations are still largely centred on reliability.

“We are supplier agnostic, meaning that we can be fully customer-led on the managed services we are providing, and we can tailor our solutions. Many of the conversations we are having with our customers are around accelerating their digital journeys, building on the reliability of our telecommunications network and services. Ultimately, however, they want accessible, available, and secure solutions that work when they need them.”

Eir evo’s reputation for delivering tailored and reliable solutions is underpinned by its recent success in winning a contract

to deliver high-capacity fibre network and managed services to 10 of Northern Ireland’s 11 local councils. The network solution will connect almost 600 council sites across Northern Ireland with the required infrastructure to enable more efficient delivery of digital services, achieve productivity improvements, and support the development of new technology initiatives from within the local authorities.

“We have progressed that conversation among those local councils away from the nuts and bolts in the network to enable a more strategic focus on their digital journey, and the future market trends that are emerging,” Gheel adds.

Cybersecurity

As businesses and organisations progress their digital journey, increased exposure to cyber threat amid increased threat sophistication, is a prominent challenge. Gheel emphasises that cybersecurity is also a challenge in which many customers lack expertise.

In this context, she says that eir evo’s response is two-fold. Firstly, its one-stop shop offering ensures the ability to secure across an organisation’s entire suite through its extensive security portfolio. Secondly, with offices in Belfast, Dublin, and New Zealand, eir evo security experts proactively monitor customer organisations 24/7/365. They are also one of the only technology providers in Ireland to be fully accredited ISO27001

for Information Security Management and ISO20000-1 for IT Service Delivery.

Eir evo’s security support, much like its IT support, operates on a ‘follow the sun’ model, meaning that eir evo seamlessly switches support and monitoring between its Irish and New Zealand offices, giving customers access to support when they need it.

“Using industry leading security information and event management (SIEM) solutions, managed by trained experts using best in class processes and technology, our managed SIEM service mitigates the overwhelming cost and complexity or purchasing, deploying, and effectively managing security monitoring technologies,” explains Gheel.

“Our expert analysts rapidly identify threats and respond to incidents utilising market leading SIEM solutions. Using modern technologies, we analyse data and correlate user behaviour patterns through log events, network flows, threat intelligence, vulnerabilities, and business context.”

Gheel is quick to reiterate, however, that in offering managed solutions, eir evo prides itself on the depth of its customer engagement, ensuring that each customer adopts solutions which best meet their specific needs.

Using another market trend – artificial intelligence (AI) – as an example, she says: “AI has been around for a long time, but in recent years it has attracted a

lot of attention. We recognise the transformational potential of AI and have embedded it with our solutions, enabling our customers to navigate the digital landscape very effectively.

“However, in our interactions with businesses in early stages of AI adoption, there is a notable level of uncertainty about how best organisations can integrate it, including challenges around things like security, governance, and data classification.

“Like any tool, the benefit lies in not just having the capability, but in using it. Our extensive cohort of in-house AI experts regularly engages with current and potential future customers to offer advice and help the customer understand how they can best use AI.”

Economy

Alongside growth of their own customer base, Gheel outlines that eir evo recognises and understands its role in contributing to overarching ambitions to grow the local economy. In June 2024, new Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA launched action plans intended to help grow seven priority sectors. While one of the sectors identified was software, Gheel believes that eir evo’s contribution will go much further.

“We are committed to growing the local economy here, as evidenced by our investment in the network and by the capability we are bringing to the local market. We are in a position to bring ‘best in class’ underpinning technologies to not only the priority sector identified by Minister Murphy, but across every sector of the economy.

“We are keen to be an enabler of business in Northern Ireland and we recognise our role in helping local and indigenous businesses to compete in global markets. Previously, Northern Ireland, as a small geography was regarded as a digital laggard, but that is changing. When it comes to telecoms and IT capability, knowledge, and skills, we are on an equal platform to many on the global stage.”

Gheel also believes customer recognition of the importance of the digital journey to their operations means that telecoms and IT are deviating from the trend of business investment hesitancy experienced in other sectors during times of economic turbulence caused by external headwinds such as Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, and rising inflation.

“I think people are recognising the importance of the digital journey. In the last number of years the market here is embracing and investing in telecoms and IT solutions in a market that is very dynamic.”

However, Gheel is aware that obstacles must be surmounted if eir evo, and the wider telecoms and IT sector, are to continue to thrive in Northern Ireland.

"The growing demand for IT talent in Northern Ireland presents a challenge for companies, we need to further develop and expand the local skill base,” she explains. “Efforts to grow this capacity are not working quickly enough, and must be addressed across the whole spectrum of skills required for such a vast sector.

“In our ambitions for growth, we have vacant roles currently, but

we are finding that it is difficult to attract the right skills and the right people locally.”

Alongside increasing the number of skilled telecommunications and IT professionals in Northern Ireland, Gheel is an advocate for greater diversity within the sector, particularly raising awareness of the attractiveness of the sector to more females.

Eir evo is currently exploring entry into the higher-level apprenticeship scheme, and is engaged with Belfast Met to establish tailored programmes to meet its needs. Gheel also says that broader work is ongoing to engage school children on the prospects of a career in telecommunications.

“There is potentially a legacy mindset that exists around telecoms and IT that it attracts a certain type of personality, but that is very dated. It is a very dynamic, social, and exciting career. That is a message we need to get in to schools and into our young people and their parents. The messaging around skills needs to be updated and mindsets need to be changes, which is something we aim to be a part of.”

Summarising her vision for eir evo in the coming years, Gheel says: “In the short term, our goal is to become the most trusted partner of business in Northern Ireland. We will do that by delivering exceptional service and support to our customers, ensuring they have access to the latest technology advances on their digital journey.

“In the medium term, we are committed to enhancing our network, developing our portfolio, and investing in the development of our skills and our IT services, continuing on the path of accreditation to ensure that our engineers remain the best on the island. That will also ensure that we bring those technological advances to our customer base.

“In the long term, we want to play a pivotal role in the economic development of Northern Ireland by providing cutting edge technology solutions to our client base and enabling them to streamline their operations, boost their efficiency, and access global markets, under the guidance of our expertise.”

Clair Gheel

Clair Gheel was appointed the Sales and Marketing Director at eir evo in July 2024, having joined the organisation as business development director in 2017. Graduating with a BSc in computer science from Ulster University, Gheel began her career in the UK with Oracle and has held a number of roles including as director of her own consultancy, Gheel consultancy, for almost 17 years. She has refned professional skills in enterprise software, sales management, data centres, and network services.

The mother of three describes herself as an avid gym goer, who likes to run for her mental wellbeing, as much as for physical health.

Energy security in an all-island context

Refreshing the All-Island Grid Study could be a key enabler of a net zero electricity system by 2035, suggests MaREI Director Brian Ó Gallachóir.

Carried out as the first comprehensive assessment of the ability of the electrical power system to absorb large amounts of electricity produced from renewable energy sources on the island, the AllIsland Grid Study of 2008 underpinned the achievement of the 2020 target to deliver a 40 per cent renewable share of electricity generation, indicates Ó Gallachóir.

Now, in the face of the pre-existing benefits of greater all-island energy integration being overlooked, not least because both jurisdictions are developing separate energy security strategies despite worrying short- to medium-term generation adequacy projections, he believes refreshing the study could serve to re-emphasise the benefits of all-island energy system integration.

Ó Gallachóir’s recommendation is delivered in a context whereby both jurisdictions have pledged to reach net zero economies by 2050, suggesting a need for a net zero energy system by 2040, underpinned by a net zero electricity system by 2035.

Stressing the importance of an integrated all-island approach to reaching this target if energy security is to be maintained, Ó Gallachóir also recommends the establishment of an all-island gas storage plan.

Context

Mapping the development of very significant all-island electricity and gas infrastructure back to 1970, when the North-South Electricity Interconnector was built, the Associate Vice-President for Sustainability at University College Cork (UCC) indicates that co-operation post-Good Friday Agreement on market and infrastructure improvements, combined with increased interconnection to the island, has prevented electricity shortfalls, despite rising demand over the past two to three decades, fueled by economic and population growth.

A further element of the all-island approach to energy infrastructure was the working partnership, and later acquisition, of the System Operator

Northern Ireland (SONI) by EirGrid, to assess generation adequacy on the island as a whole.

“The Generation System Adequacy 20122021 gave us a 10-year projection of the surplus or deficit in terms of electricity generation and has been a continuously important tool to inform the energy market as to where there might be pinch points and potential shortfalls in electricity generation capacity,” explains Ó Gallachóir.

The system adequacy report indicated large levels of surplus electricity on an allisland basis, but highlighted tight margins for Northern Ireland from 2016 onwards in the absence of the planned second North-South Interconnector. Post-Brexit referendum, a further 10-year prediction carried out in 2017, saw even starker warnings were issued for both jurisdictions, which the academic explains has been critical to market, regulation, and policy considerations to ensure security of supply.

“Alongside the many visible benefits of

Generation System Adequacy 2017-2026

Source: EirGrid and SONI 2017.

the all-island single electricity market and energy infrastructure, including energy prices and security, the system adequacy report is a good example of those hidden benefits, which often go underappreciated.”

Similarly, system integration on the island has been a key enabler of the renewable electricity transition, and in particular, the growth of wind energy. This has helped to manage the significant demand growth challenge and progress was exemplified by exceeding the 40 per cent renewable penetration on the electricity grid by 2020 target.

Also significant has been the role of gas, acting as a backbone to electricity generation, while aiding the transition away from oil and coal as fuels.

Pointing to data from December 2023, a record month which saw 50 per cent of the all-island electricity demand met by renewables for more than 60 per cent of the time, Ó Gallachóir describes it as a “phenomenal achievement”, which has been underpinned by strong policy impetus,

“In the context of the all-Island single electricity market and energy infrastructure on an all-island basis, it was really the peace process which enabled that progress. Five years after the Agreement was signed, the All-island Energy Market Joint Steering Group (JSG) was established, and that was followed by a number of significant developments including a memorandum

Tight margins for Ireland from 2022

Deficits in Northern Ireland 2020

of understanding between the regulators, the system operator agreement between EirGrid and SONI as transmission operators, and the common arrangements for gas,” he says.

Highlighting challenges to that early progress which have occured since the transition from the all-island Single Electricity Market to the Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM) in 2018, Ó Gallachóir points to the impact of Brexit, and the subsequent increase of electricity prices.

Similarly, he describes the Policy Statement on Security of Electricity Supply (2021) and the National Policy Statement on Electricity Interconnection (2023) as “lukewarm, if not cold” on the prospect of greater interconnection with Northern Ireland. Equally, both jurisdictions could be accused of framing their energy security policies inwardly, and not on an all-island basis.

One example, he indicates, is the Irish Government’s Energy Security in Ireland to 2030 policy document, which suggests the need for gas storage to assist with balancing the electricity system, overlooking an existing license for gas storage in salt caverns in Islandmagee, County Antrim.

“From my perspective, we have seen a period where the eye has been taken off the ball – due in part to Brexit and periods of absence of a Northern Ireland Executive – to progress all-island energy security.

“Latest projections from SONI and EirGrid show deficits in the coming years, particularly in medium and high demand scenarios, meaning that we have a problem. That speaks to the need to ensure that we do not have to rely on emergency supplies, that we can get the market mechanisms in place to enable the capacity remuneration as is required, and transform the system, particularly as we move to the ambitious targets we have set for renewables in the future.”

Pointing to existing opportunities, Ó Gallachóir highlights the emergence of a number of renewable hubs across the island as depictions of policy progression and states that approval for the second North-South Interconnector with a target commissioning date of 2026 is “welcome”.

Concluding, Ó Gallachóir says: “The 2008 All-Island Grid Study provided a really strong foundation for Ireland to meet its 40 per cent renewable electricity target. Given that both jurisdictions have committed to climate neutrality by 2050, and given our high agricultural dependence, it is suggested that we need to have a net zero power system by 2035, which is a tall order.

“I believe refreshing the All-island Grid Study would be a useful mechanism to ensuring an all-island focus on that 2035 ambition. That focus should also be turned to exploring the gas storage potential on an all-island basis.”

A decade of independence: Claire Sugden MLA

Claire Sugden, talks to David Whelan about her chance political journey, her experience within the Executive, and her political ambitions.

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In January 2022, Claire Sugden made history by becoming the first independent to be elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly three times. An MLA for over a decade, the uniqueness of her political career is unmatched.

Sugden was catapulted into electoral politics at the age of 27 following the death of her mentor, boss, and friend, David McClarty in 2014. That she has subsequently witnessed a change of leadership in each of Northern Ireland’s five largest parties indicates the longevity of her service in a political system heavily weighted towards party affiliation.

A representative for East Londonderry, Sugden outlines an intention to stay the course as an MLA so long as her constituents continue to vote for her. However, she is frank in her admission that she has given thought to a career beyond politics when the time comes, and that she harbours aspirations for a role beyond the backbenches of Stormont.

Ironically, those aspirations are in stark contrast to her early career, where, as a politics graduate from Queen’s University Belfast, Sugden’s interest in policy led her to approaching her local MLA, who at the time was a UUP representative, and go on to work as his parliamentary assistant.

The daughter of a prison officer, Sugden says that while politics was a part of daily life, she never aligned with a political party, and David McClarty’s home in the Ulster Unionist Party did not factor in her decision to seek the job.

McClarty’s decision to go independent and then contest the 2011 election as such, removed the support of a party machine, invariably meaning that Sugden was thrust into a more central role, to the extent that she describes McClarty’s win as her first successful election.

Sugden was co-opted to replace McClarty on Coleraine Borough Council in 2013 but recalls the mixture of emotion and grief when she was later informed by the Electoral Office that McClarty had named her as his successor in the Northern Ireland Assembly, just days after his death following a short period of illness in April 2014.

Asked about whether the manner in which she entered the Assembly has been fundamental to her decision to remain as an independent, she says: “Yes. To an extent. I wanted to follow on with the type of personal politics that David had, which for me meant independence.

“My unionism is a constitutional preference rather than a cultural prejudice.”

“Having worked for David for five years, we had very similar beliefs. Coming from an older generation, some of his policy ideas might have been a bit more conservative than mine but ultimately our politics was about representation.

“David was a very thoughtful, balanced person which is probably one of the differences of being an independent compared to a political party because you do have that space to consider and take all viewpoints.”

Sugden describes herself as being of the political middle ground, and as someone who sometimes goes right and sometimes goes left, but who ultimately seeks to bring as many people together as possible.

Her electoral success, high profile, and transfer-friendly status has rendered Sugden a candidate coveted by other parties. In 2022, Sugden publicly turned down a formal approach from then-UUP leader Doug Beattie to join the party. She is adamant that she will only join a political party that aligns with the politics she advocates for but is also aware that such an approach could potentially be career-limiting.

“Being an independent is very difficult and has its limits. If I want to have a future in politics, I may need to consider joining a political party, but I could only do so with a party with which I feel comfortable. If that means me having to leave politics, then that is what will happen because integrity is an important part of my politics.”

Unionism

Sugden acknowledges that she is coveted because of her ‘unionist’ tag, but voices a frustration around the portrayal and perception of that label.

Claire Sugden MLA

“In Northern Ireland we seem to conflate unionism and nationalism with right- and left-wing politics. For me, and for many unionists, the challenge is that there is no existing home for middle ground, leftwing unionism.”

Sugden cites the UUP’s voting history on policies such as religious and sexual education – an area where she believes Northern Ireland must be more progressive on – as contrary to her own thinking.

“I get approached by those parties not because of my left and right views or my socioeconomic outlook, I get approached because I am a unionist,” she states.

Highlighting a common misinterpretation of her political outlook, Sugden says: “My unionism is quite secure. Often people will describe me as a ‘moderate unionist’, I am not, I am a strong unionist, but maybe moderate in some of my other views. My unionism is a constitutional preference rather than a cultural prejudice.”

Suggesting that those who call for an end to ‘orange and green politics’ in Northern Ireland are failing to recognise the constitutional question as a fundamental part of society, Sugden believes that whether people aspire to a united Ireland or for the region to remain in the UK, they should share a desire to see public services improved and “make Northern Ireland work”.

Executive

In May 2016, Sugden was a shock appointment to the Justice portfolio in the Northern Ireland Executive, having only served as an MLA for two years. Given that independent MLAs in the Northern Ireland Assembly do not even qualify to

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“I would question whether the current government departments are conducive to an outcomes-based accountability model.”

chair standing or select committees offers a sense of the significance of the appointment. With the Alliance Party refusing the justice portfolio, and both the SDLP and the UUP opting to form an opposition, Sugden was given a unique insight in to how the DUP and Sinn Féin share power.

Sugden enjoyed the experience but admits to being frustrated at not being able to complete the mandate, given that the Executive collapsed after just eight months. Ironically, she laments the opportunity that existed for stable governance at the time.

“If you look at the instability of government in Northern Ireland, it largely comes down to the nature of forced coalition. In this instance, however, we had a situation where, as an independent, I did not pose an electoral threat to the two parties in government,” she explains.

“I have no experience of the Executive before or after, but what I do know is that there was surprise at just how well ministers were working together, how invested ministers were in crossdepartmental working, and their approach to the outcomes-based accountability model.”

While Sugden accepts that many factors played a part in the collapse of relationships, namely Brexit, RHI, and Martin McGuinness’ illness and death, ultimately, she believes that there was a discomfort among respective electoral bases at how well Sinn Féin and the DUP were working, and cites the main reason for failure as “that it was too successful”.

Since leaving the post, she has been vocal about the level of misogyny and ageism she experienced, but points to a record, even in the short space of time, which she is proud of. Her biggest regret is not being afforded the time to progress to completion work on domestic violence legislation, but she takes solace in the fact that the Domestic Abuse and Civil Proceedings Act came in to force in 2021

under another mandate. Equally she points to direction issued to civil servants prior to the three-year Assembly and Executive hiatus in areas such as stalking, sentencing, and paramilitaries as being paramount to policy being brought forward more laterally.

Asked if it is a position she will consider taking again if the opportunity presents itself, Sugden is emphatic in her response: “Yes.”

Sugden’s potential return to the justice portfolio was mooted ahead of the Assembly and Executive’s return in February 2024, but ultimately the role was retained by Alliance Party Leader Naomi Long MLA. On its return, MLAs had been out of the Assembly chamber for over two years and had their pay cut by the Secretary of State.

Given the instability of devolution, a small number of MLAs chose to quit politics and pursue other careers, while others were hesitant about returning without the guarantee of stability, not least a Programme for Government.

Sugden had no such hesitancy, stating that in a job centred on improving policy and public services, the loss of any time in a mandate serves as a hindrance. Although outlining her frustrations at the obvious limitations of the shortened mandate, she adds: “I am a believer in the Assembly. I think we have significant powers and opportunities to improved things now – whether they are utilised is about whether the right people are elected to drive that change.”

Describing a scenario whereby public servants in Northern Ireland will continue to “fight fires” until the long-standing ambition to transform public services is achieved, she believes that the current structures of governance must be challenged.

“I would question whether the current government departments are conducive to an outcomes-based accountability model,” she says. “For example, if we want better outcomes for children – a

remit that spans across education, health, communities, etcetera, then we should have a Department for Children. Realistically, civil servants who have a bottom line and a very specific remit are not going to extend beyond that remit, because it does not not fit their budget. If increasing the current remits is unrealistic, then we must change those remits.”

Independence

Turning to the challenges of independence within the Northern Ireland Assembly, Sugden is acutely aware of her need to prioritise policies and strike a balance between Assembly and constituency business.

Where other parties employ the use of specific spokespeople on particular policy spheres, and councillors at local level, Sugden is a sole voice, something which she admits can be difficult.

On how she prioritises her time, she says: “I am an independent and represent one constituency, which is my priority. If I need to be in my constituency rather than in Stormont then that is what I will do, however, there does have to be a balance because I do take an interest in broader policy areas.”

Explaining that, contrary to popular belief, the recent Assembly hiatus actually meant an increase in workload for MLAs like herself, as they sought to address challenges for their constituents without the normal structures in place, she admits that a level of personal sacrifice is required to effectively do the job which she describes as “a privilege”.

“I have chosen to be an independent and I believe I punch above my weight in terms of what I have achieved and how I represent my constituents. Is that a personal burden? Yes, it is, and I find that particularly so since I have had a child.”

Asked if after over a decade of public service, she sees her long-term career as in politics, she says: “I feel very fortunate doing this job and I will enjoy the ride as long as I am on it. When that is I do not know, but I will stay here as long as people want me.

“The one thing I would say is that I do not really want to be a backbench MLA for the rest of my life.”

Bridging languages: The key to a multicultural Northern Ireland

Economic benefits of multiculturalism

The rise of multiculturalism brings a fresh pool of talent and innovation, highlighting the essential freedom of movement.

“Higher net migration generates higher growth and tax receipts, to the tune of £7.5 billion by 2028-29”, says the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), as reported by The Observer. This economic benefit underscores the value of embracing a multicultural approach in our community.

Vital role of foreign national workers

The presence of foreign national workers is vital not only in healthcare but also in hospitality, food, and agriculture, driving growth and performance. A robust infrastructure is necessary to overcome language barriers.

Enhancing healthcare through language services

In healthcare, clear communication between patients and medical staff is critical. When language barriers exist, the ability to convey symptoms or understand treatment plans suffers. Providing language access is not just about enhancing healthcare—it is about preserving dignity and ensuring equitable treatment for all residents.

As Northern Ireland grows increasingly multicultural, the role of language services becomes crucial. Our community’s fabric is enriched with diverse languages and traditions, creating both opportunities and challenges in sectors like healthcare, immigration, and social services.

Simplifying immigration processes

In immigration, the complexities of navigating legal and administrative systems are significant. Language services simplify these processes, helping newcomers understand their rights and responsibilities, ensuring both efficiency and fairness.

Effective communication in social services

Social services also require effective communication, particularly in areas like welfare, child protection, and domestic issues. Ensuring that individuals understand their rights and can communicate their experiences is crucial. Professional interpreting and translation services play a key role in bridging these gaps, ensuring clarity and understanding.

Investing in democracy through language services

Investing in language services means investing in democracy—ensuring every voice is heard, regardless of the spoken language. In Northern Ireland, communicating across languages is essential, not just for daily functionality but also for fostering community and belonging.

Evolving with Northern Ireland’s multicultural landscape

As we look to the future, it is clear that Northern Ireland’s multicultural landscape will continue to evolve. It is imperative that our services evolve alongside, recognising the crucial role of language services in creating an inclusive, equitable society. These services are more than just translation tools; they are vital for weaving the diverse threads of our community into a cohesive whole.

Our commitment is to ensure that every individual is heard and understood—a commitment to respect, equality, and empowerment. This commitment sustains the vibrancy and health of our multicultural society.

Paolina Hawthorne is the Managing Director of Diversity NI, a leading provider of professional interpreting and translation services in Northern Ireland to public and private sector clients across a diverse range of sectors.

T: 028 9047 3737

E: info@diversityni.co.uk

W: www.diversityni.co.uk

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All-Island Strategic Rail Review: Irish rail connectivity back on track

Ambitions have been set out for rail connectivity to be signifcantly enhanced across Ireland, with all counties, aside from County Fermanagh, set to have access within the next 25 years.

Following the return of the Northern Ireland Executive, the All-Island Strategic Rail Review has been published, one-year after being published in draft form by the Department of Transport when the Executive was suspended.

Under the proposals, rail connections are to be restored in and expanded to 31 of Ireland’s 32 counties, with a total of 32 recommendations aimed at enhancing the network across the next 25 years while making train travel quicker and more environmentally friendly.

The recommendations include:

• restoring a line linking Portadown, County Armagh with Mullingar, County Westmeath with the line passing through Armagh city and Cavan town;

• restoring a line between Derry and Portadown, linking the towns of

Strabane, Omagh and Dungannon (all in County Tyrone) to the network;

• building a new direct line between Lisburn, County Antrim and Newry city;

• restoring a line between Athenry, County Galway and Claremorris, County Mayo, connecting Tuam, County Galway to the network;

• reinstating the railway south County Wexford;

• developing a new rail link from Letterkenny, County Donegal to Derry city;

• building a rail link that would cross central Dublin – potentially via a tunnel – to connect Heuston station, which receives trains from the south and west of the island, with Connolly station, which serves the north and east; and

• connecting Dublin, Shannon, and Belfast International airports to the rail network. In Dublin, the move would complement the existing plan for a MetroLink service from the airport into the city centre and would enable intercity services to access directly the island’s biggest airport. Reinstating the Lisburn to the Antrim line would enable Belfast International Airport to be served by a rail link for the first time, while in Shannon the review recommends the building of a spur to facilitate a rail link with Limerick city.

While these are all medium- to long-term ambitions, there are some proposals which are expected to go ahead in the short term, including the introduction of additional track capacity, electrifcation, increased speeds, and higher service frequencies on existing networks.

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While the recommendations of the review have broad support, there has been some criticism at the lack of connectivity in County Donegal beyond the single line being propose between Letterkenny and Derry, and the absence of proposed projects in County Fermanagh which would leave it as the only county in Ireland with no rail connectivity.

The North’s Minister for Infrastructure John O’Dowd MLA commented on the Fermanagh omission: “I recognise that many will be disappointed by the omission of rail connections to Fermanagh, in particular Enniskillen. Following the consultation period last year, I asked the consultants to review this, but they concluded that a new railway line did not appear to stimulate suffcient demand to support a rail service within the time frame of the review.”

Decarbonisation

While the scope of the review does not include developing a detailed decarbonisation strategy for the island’s railways, it has developed a plausible approach by drawing on insights from Great Britain’s Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy and Denmark’s Togfunden programme, which has introduced rail travel which is highspeed (between 160 and 250km/h) and has signifcantly reduced carbon emissions since being rolled out in Denmark in 2014.

The considerations which can be considered in the medium term are:

• Electrified railways: Electric traction is proven, widely used, and supported by relatively strong supply chains. It can support passenger trains and freight trains over long distances, at high speed, and without refuelling. However, this option requires significant investment in infrastructure such as Over Head Line Equipment (OHLE). The Government is currently investing heavily in expanding OHLE for the DART service in the Dublin area, which will increase the length of electrified railway from circa 50km to 150km (around 5 per cent of the island’s railway route length).

• Battery electric trains: Battery electric trains have been proven at a relatively small scale. These are suited to operating short distances but cannot currently support higher speed (around 200km/h) passenger trains or freight trains over long distances.

• Hydrogen powered trains: This technology is earlier in its development cycle, but the signs are stated as “promising”. Hydrogen trains have been shown to work in a live operating environment, although the economics of

adopting this technology at scale are less clear. This technology could support passenger services over relatively long distances in areas with relatively easy access to hydrogen production and storage.

To enable the introduction of low-carbon rail pathways, the review states that the two administrations on the island should develop and implement an All-Island Rail Decarbonisation Strategy that, as a minimum, includes an electrifed intercity network; develop plans to invest in the skills, supply chains, and rolling stock to deliver decarbonisation; and procure hybrid and electric rolling stock in the medium term.

The report estimates the capital cost of implementing all the recommendations by 2050 would be between €35 billion and €37 billion in 2023 prices, of which 75 per cent is to be funded by the Government and 25 per cent funded by the Northern Ireland Executive.

While the stated upfront cost is high, it would be spread evenly over the period of 25 years to implementation, and the report states that there would be economic benefts which would unlock a return on the investment.

“Some costs would be offset by future revenue, while others could be met by government funding. In addition, there would be other impacts arising from the delivery of some interventions, particularly during their construction,” the report states.

“These costs would represent a similar annual spend as was committed in the middle of the 2000s when Ireland expanded its motorway network, and they would be shared across both jurisdictions.”

Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan TD said: “This is not just the frst All-Island Strategic Rail Review, it is the most ambitious vision for rail in a century, bringing us forward to a new age of rail.

“This vision has been made possible by close cooperation between the departments and agencies north and south.

“Rail not only allows us to carry more people and freight in a more sustainable way, it is the great connector, enabling greater regional accessibility and balanced regional development.”

Minister O’Dowd added: “This publication brings us to a new chapter where we can shape a better future for everyone by decarbonising key services and investing in climate adaptation measures, while at the same time supporting economic productivity through projects, policy and legislation.”

A

net zero future: Connecting the economic opportunities

NIE Networks hosted key stakeholders from across Northern Ireland’s economy to discuss how the transition to decarbonised use of the electricity network can underpin the region’s economic growth ambitions. What role does the electricity network play in improving socioeconomic outcomes for Northern Ireland?

Derek Hynes

The electricity network is a tool for connectivity. A total of 929,000 homes and businesses are connected to the network through wires and cables, making the electricity network a unique offering. We need to upgrade the network if we are going to offer those homes and

businesses the opportunity to move away from using fossil fuels. Ultimately, we will invest in the network, but the decisions informing that investment will determine the socioeconomic opportunities that flow from it. Job creation, apprenticeships for our young people, and a better environment are just some of the opportunities that exist for a more modern and prosperous region, if we can maximise those connected opportunities.

Rachel Sankannawar

The electricity network is a critical

Round table discussion hosted by

infrastructure that underpins economic growth, social development, and environmental sustainability. It is akin to a nervous system in that it joins up the regions and presents opportunities for balanced economic development. From a green economy perspective, a reliable and expansive network is not only critical to reaching net zero for the region, but a key agent in attracting new green investments in technologies and fostering the innovation we need to improve social and economic outcomes.

David Rooney

The electricity network is a tool, which may be employed, with great success, to improve socioeconomic outcomes. When we talk about the business connectivity potential, we must give equal consideration to the value of community wealth-building projects that may stem from the upgrade investments.

Equally, the electricity network is an innovation platform. Previously, we led the way in renewable penetration, utilising our unique offering – such as our extensive wire network – across a very wide geographical area. There are opportunities that we can maximise for our own economy, while accumulating knowledge that can be exported to the rest of the world, to enable other transitions to net zero.

Noyona Chundur

There is no doubt the electricity network will be a key lever in decarbonising our energy system, but behavioural considerations are hugely important as we progress the transition. Consumers still need the same fundamentals – a secure and reliable supply, at an affordable cost, with minimal environmental impact – however, they are being asked to participate in the transition at pace and at a time when they face significant affordability challenges. There is no realistic pathway for electrification – or any realistic pathway to net zero – that does not require our communities and society to change behaviours at scale, therefore, we must mobilise the opportunities of this change. Getting our communities and citizens participating in and supporting the transition is critical and a key driver is the investment that stimulates and advances economic growth, which consumers will benefit from.

Anne-Maire McConn

Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA’s recently announced vision is clear on the opportunities to build a green economy through collaborative strategic investment in areas such as the Single Electricity Market and an integrated, balanced, decarbonised energy system. The Department for the Economy is assessing the policy levers that will be required to deploy smart systems and flexibility. A good example is our plan to finalise the high-level design for smart meters later in 2024. In addition, we are working with the Utility Regulator and other stakeholders to research how interconnectors and storage options will impact on all of this. We are also reviewing the electricity grid connection charging policy, recognising that it currently acts as a barrier for consumers and businesses, and ensuring Northern Ireland is a favourable destination for renewable investment.

Round table participants

Noyona Chundur

Noyona Chundur is Chief Executive of the Consumer Council for Northern Ireland. She is a Chartered Director and a Fellow of the Institute of Directors. Chundur is a council member for the Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce and Industry and chair of the Cathedral Quarter Arts Festival. Prior to becoming Chief Executive, she was a Consumer Council board member and chair of the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee.

Derek Hynes

Derek Hynes was appointed Managing Director of NIE Networks on 1 September 2022. He is a director of Energy Networks Association Ltd, Centre for Competitiveness, and Smart Grid Ireland. He joined ESB in 2000, where he held several senior management positions. He is a chartered engineer with post-graduate qualifications in operations management and corporate governance, and he has completed the advanced management programme at Harvard University.

Anne-Maire McConn

Anne-Maire McConn is the Department for the Economy’s Director of Energy Strategy, Energy Group. Previously, she worked in the Department of Finance and DAERA, with local and Great Britain ministers and the EU, developing policy, legislation, and schemes for animal disease control, food policy and leading communications and people issues.

David Rooney

David Rooney is the Dean of Internationalisation and Reputation within the Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences at Queen’s University Belfast. He is a professor of Chemical Engineering at Queen’s and Director of the Centre for Advanced Sustainable Energy. He has a HIndex of 57, over 10,000 citations, and a grant portfolio of over £10 million.

Rachel Sankannawar

Rachel Sankannawar is Invest NI’s Head of Green Economy Development and focuses on empowering Northern Ireland businesses to fully optimise the opportunities emerging in the green economy, and to support business decarbonisation in the drive towards net zero. She has over 10 years’ experience across private and public sector, and advises on strategic direction for the development of solutions, capability and technologies needed to tackle climate change and advance a green economy in Northern Ireland.

“Perfection has become the enemy of progress when there are lots of low-regret actions that can be taken now.” Derek Hynes

How can the transition to net zero underpin the Economy Minister’s four strategic policy ambitions?

Anne-Maire McConn

Decarbonisation is one of the four policy ambitions, but it is also a recognised driver of the other three, namely, creating good jobs, increased productivity, and improving regional balance. The DfE’s Energy Strategy predated the Climate Change Act, but it placed the consumer at the heart of the transition and in doing so, recognised the potential for innovative businesses in Northern Ireland, with unique access to EU and UK markets, to not only help protect the environment but to create good jobs, boost productivity, and improve regional balance. By way of example, to maximise the employment opportunity presented by the net zero transition, we are working with industry to publish a skills action plan in September 2024. Similarly, and in relation to regional balance, DfE is coordinating the development of a subregional economic action plan in collaboration with local councils and recently launched the low-carbon/net zero sectoral action plan as part of a suite of sector-specific actions.

Rachel Sankannawar

Invest NI recognises the green economy and decarbonisation as a key driver of growth and prosperity. Our role is twofold. Firstly, we help businesses to decarbonise with the view to making them more competitive and productive.

Secondly, we look for business opportunities that arise from the global drive to net zero. Oxford Economics estimates that new green activities are projected to create $10.3 trillion in global GDP by 2050. For the UK, this market is projected to deliver up to £170 billion in exports alone by 2030. Northern Ireland needs a slice of this pie and to do so, we must anchor green industrial development within the region to deliver long-term economic benefit.

There are multiple growth pathways that align with the Minister’s four economic priorities ranging from our potential to create and export green technologies and expertise, to ‘crafting clean’ and recognising that a decarbonisation plan is becoming a passport for doing business. As we seek to revolutionise production with renewables and clean energy, organisations like NIE Networks play a critical role in enabling businesses to become more productive and competitive in those global markets.

Derek Hynes

On the surface, NIE Network’s role in reaching net zero is fairly straightforward in that we have to manage the network in a way that enables households and businesses access to clean electricity. That means expanding and improving the network to meet future demand. We are enabled by a mechanism that allows us to fund this through a small proportion of a consumers bill but also importantly, to be able to raise debt. The real challenge

“Now is the time to mobilise and anchor value offered by the green economy.” Rachel Sankannawar

lies in the decision-making around how and where we spend that money to ensure we get the best outcomes for Northern Ireland. For example, if we are choosing a location for significant investment, do we opt for somewhere that has historically suffered from a lack of investment, or do we opt for an area that will generate greater capacity for industry to develop? You can see how our connected ecosystem links in with those ministerial missions and the role all our organisations have, not just in decarbonisation, but maximising the economic and societal opportunities of the transition.

David Rooney

The transition can underpin the economic priorities in two ways. Firstly, by supporting the region’s existing business base and drawing up a roadmap for the direction of travel as we move towards what is effectively a rebalancing with nature. That must include more decentralised production of energy, among other things, and requires greater circularity, being able to use more placebased resources, and activities which are embedded in communities. Secondly, new opportunities will stem from the transition as we maximise the utility of this tool. Every sector in Northern Ireland must decarbonise. On that journey, we have the opportunity to utilise the skills and expertise of our flagship growth sectors to create new business and to boost economic opportunities across the region.

Noyona Chundur

How the consumer interacts with markets and the opportunities being created is important for ensuring they buy into and experience the benefits of decarbonisation, a policy ambition. Also, as a micro-business economy, many businesses interact with the energy market in the same way as individual consumers, meaning they share common traits of low awareness and understanding and uncertainty around decision-making, even if they have the best intentions. To support consumers –and some businesses – we need to offer simple, connected pathways through a one-stop shop where trusted and accessible advice, incentive, support and signposting sits together to lift and guide ambition and action, and crucially, offers them a voice in codesigning interventions.

“By boosting productivity and delivering better paid jobs, the improved discretionary spending power should enable consumers to make greener choices and investment decisions.” David Rooney

What

are the most significant challenges in delivering net zero and enabling the wider economic vision?

Noyona Chundur

From a consumer perspective, there are two main challenges. The first is ensuring consumer centricity. We talk about putting the consumer at the heart of the transition, but we need to embed it into our business as usual if we are going to achieve the behavioural change required. The second challenge is how we embed consumer insights into the decisionmaking process, moving away from primarily gathering consumer views when we need to inform policy development. Good consumer engagement is good practice and that means not just gathering the data but ensuring an ongoing conversation, and monitoring lived experiences and how these change over time. Inclusive design principles from the outset will also breed the confidence and assurance people need to participate in the transition.

Rachel Sankannawar

Our biggest challenges are also our

biggest opportunities. If we can prioritise and solve them, then they give us a competitive advantage. On a high level, we have planning challenges, alongside challenges around skills development and workforce availability. We need to be an attractive proposition to secure private investment, and that requires consensus and clear pathways. However, we have proven in the past our ability to be worldleading in renewables when we focus our efforts. Now is the time to mobilise and anchor value offered by the green economy.

David Rooney

Uncertainty around what the net zero agenda means and what impact it will have on consumers and businesses is the greatest challenge. We have had transitions in the past – such as the move to smokeless coal or unleaded fuel – that were successful because the benefits were evident. To date, for the transition to net zero, that has not been the case because we have yet to fully articulate the changes and benefits.

Anne-Maire McConn

De-fossilisation remains the biggest overarching challenge because it requires the restructuring of entire industries.

“Good consumer engagement is good practice and that means not just gathering the data but ensuring an ongoing conversation, and monitoring lived experiences and how these change over time.”

Noyona Chundur

What we are doing in DfE is trying to create the policies, regulations, and legislation that will facilitate that restructure. Decarbonisation is not the job of government alone, but we are cognisant of the need for policy certainty and direction. Our Energy Strategy gives that direction and as we approach the fifth year, plans are in place to carry out a mid-term review of the strategy alongside our stakeholders in 2025.

Derek Hynes

Often the pursuit of perfection is the greatest challenge. To some extent, perfection has become the enemy of progress when there are lots of lowregret actions that can be taken now. There is no point in us reaching net zero by 2050 if we continue to heavily emit carbon up until 2049 because the accumulated damage will be done. Ironically, one of Northern Ireland’s current advantages is that it has lagged behind the energy transition decisions taken in neighbouring countries in recent decades, so there are working technologies that we can copy in a lowregret manner. Smart meters are a good example of where the strive for perfection and certainty is somewhat unnecessary.

Anne-Maire McConn

On the flip side of that, there are consumer acceptance issues stemming from when things have been done wrongly in the past. We must ensure that we are fully communicating how we are doing things better and correctly to ensure we can mitigate those fears and biases.

What are the impacts on the consumer in creating an environment conducive to economic growth?

Noyona Chundur

Net zero is a recognised opportunity to drive economic growth, increase job creation, and deliver the public health benefits from increasing our carbon savings. However, to achieve this the consumer needs to understand what is being asked of them and be able to access the appropriate support, tailored to their circumstances. Remember, it is the consumer who pays for the energy transition, both directly and indirectly, so they deserve to be engaged in the process as early and as often as possible. What we must guard against is the creation of a two-tiered system whereby those who can afford it enjoy the benefits of a decarbonised economy, and those who cannot are left behind.

Derek Hynes

Articulating the benefits of our investment work in the present – delivering a better service in the future – can be difficult. Covid-19 provided a lot of learnings around the importance of grid resilience and the impact any outages had on people’s lives and livelihoods. However, it has not changed a general reluctance to increased bills or additional maintenance work in an area, even if that means greater resilience in the future. It is difficult to have a national conversation about net zero electricity in a rational way because the topic is so abstract that we

do not adequately link household choices to the net zero agenda. To this end, we need better communication. As such, we must listen and be prepared to do something different.

Anne-Maire McConn

Demonstrating societal benefits is key to gaining public support for change. On 18 June 2024, the Minister for the Economy announced plans to establish a working group to identify what community benefits can be delivered through industrial decarbonisation. That will act as a pathfinder for us to demonstrate how these projects will bring long-term benefit to communities and change the public perception around near-term actions for long-term gain, in relation to renewables.

Noyona Chundur

Achieving public buy-in requires coordination to avoid confusion. We need greater cohesion and an agreed common toolkit and priorities. We also need to ensure we are highlighting localised benefits because the macro benefits are confusing for people, and they struggle to apply them to their day-to-day lives. Organisations need to go out regularly and frequently, and communicate with trust, confidence, and transparency.

David Rooney

We are trying to deliver the equivalent of the industrial revolution, in a fraction of the timescale, with a recognition that the immediate benefits are not always obvious to the consumer. It is important that we talk about affordability rather than cost, because they are very different metrics. If we enhance wider economic prosperity, then these measures become more affordable for society. If decarbonisation allows us to grow the economy and increase prosperity by boosting productivity and delivering better paid jobs, the improved discretionary spending power should enable consumers to make greener choices and investment decisions.

How can Northern Ireland maximise its socioeconomic opportunities for the future?

Noyona Chundur

Through a just transition. The two main pillars of this are security of supply –which means safeguarding what

“Decarbonisation is not the job of government alone, but we are cognisant of the need for policy certainty and direction.” Anne-Maire McConn

consumers need and want – and affordability – which means making the right decisions for consumers as they move through this journey. A just and fair transition embracing all citizens will bring the social and economic benefits that we are seeking to achieve.

David Rooney

We need to embrace risk and the best means to do so is by creating a regional investment fund to support investment decisions, enable action and return investment back into Northern Ireland and into the grid. The electricity network, and other key green energy infrastructures, are being constrained because we are slow to accept risk. Meanwhile, other regions are taking risks and reaping the rewards.

Derek Hynes

I agree with David about risk. We tend to treat the electricity grid like the ‘good sitting room’ at home, where no one is allowed in and there is to be no mess, in the name of security of supply. However, the electricity network is quite a robust system and the feedback we are getting is that while Northern Ireland leads on its grid and renewable penetration levels, it has some of the highest constraints in the world. That risk aversion stems from policy and the idea that there is no room for mistakes. The reality is that we need to take short-term actions while planning for the long-term. The strive for

perfection causes a continual churn for perfection of policy and certainty, which distracts people away from doing the things that are achievable now.

Rachel Sankannawar

We need to take the assets and capabilities we have in Northern Ireland and go after the market opportunities. We are uniquely positioned for those opportunities in the green economy, and we need to take some risk to ensure that we are benefiting from those green transactions taking place across the globe. Derek talks about letting people be innovative with our electricity network and the same principle applies to our businesses. We need to be agile enough to tailor and support our vibrant and growing ecosystem of indigenous businesses to the needs of the local and global markets.

Anne-Maire McConn

As a small and flexible region, with limited resources, the opportunities lie in collaboration. If we are to maximise the resources available, we must avoid overlapping on key areas and that is why we are working with partners such as Invest NI to deliver initiatives including the Energy Efficiency Capital Grant. This collaboration must also stretch into our communication strategy around the benefits of the transition to net zero.

issues agenda

Housing crises: Social home output

With the delivery of more social homes a key tenet of actions to mitigate the housing crises north and south, David Whelan assesses the significant gap in delivery.

In June 2024, housing and homelessness sector leaders in Northern Ireland cosigned a letter to the First Minister and deputy First Minister to outline their “grave concerns” at the likelihood that only 400 new social homes will be started in 2024/25.

The level of new starts would represent an over 70 per cent fall in current delivery, which itself falls below the necessary draft Housing Supply Strategy target of 2,222 new social housing units per year until 2037.

The projected decrease comes after the Northern Ireland Executive approved its annual budget which significantly reduced the capital budget for the Department for Communities by £216 million from the previous year.

Four key stakeholder bodies involved in drafting the letter estimate that the

allocation will mean 1,106 fewer homes will commence construction in 2024/25, compared with 2023/24.

Northern Ireland is experiencing rising levels of homelessness, coupled with a growing social housing waiting list. The total number of applicants on the Northern Ireland Housing Executive waiting list at 31 March 2024 was 47,312. Of these applicants, 35,464 households were deemed in ‘housing stress’.

A rise in demand has been compounded by inflationary pressures on supply costs, rising private rent levels, and an acknowledgment that the current housing stock is not reflective of the changing needs of the population.

Political instability, the Covid-19 pandemic, and failure to secure a multiannual budget have also been identified

as having detrimental impacts on ambitions to increase the social housing stock.

In March 2024, newly appointed Communities Minister Gordon Lyons MLA identified a Housing Supply Strategy for Northern Ireland as one of his first priorities as part of the reformed Executive, however, at the end of August 2024, the strategy had still not been finalised.

The strategy, which envisages the delivery of over 100,000 new houses, including 33,000 social homes, over a 15-year period, has been in draft form since early 2022, when the Executive collapse meant it failed to be approved.

If agreed by the Executive, the new Housing Supply Strategy would require delivery of an estimated 2,222 new social housing units per year.

That figure is significantly higher than recent delivery. In 2023/24 (April 2023 to March 2024), 1,508 new social housing dwelling starts were recorded, following 1,956 in 2022/23 and 1,713 in 2021/22. The social housing start figures tend to be higher than new build figures, as dwellings started are not always completed in the same year.

Suggesting that the most recent budget allocation will only allow for 400 new houses to be started in 2024/25, housing sector stakeholders said the allocation would have “major social and economic consequences” and called for the Executive to urgently reconsider the capital budget.

Seamus Leheny, CEO of the Northern Ireland Federation of Housing Associations (NIFHA), says: “In reality the housing waiting list and the social housing budget are going in different directions, at a rapid pace. While figures showed an 18 per cent increase in the number of applicants on the waiting list over the last 10 years, the budget available for new build social housing is shrinking and today’s decision will lead to at least a 73 per cent reduction in the number of new build homes compared to last year.

“If this is not addressed then the Northern Ireland Assembly is effectively waving a white flag and accepting that we cannot realistically provide housing for our citizens in need.

“In the first quarter of this year [2024] alone more than 850 applicants presented as being in housing need, but as things stand we will be building less than half that number of homes over a whole year.”

Context in the Republic

By comparison, Housing for All, the Irish Government’s housing plan to 2030, set an ambition of 9,500 new-build social homes to be provided each year.

Most recent figures show that the 58,824 households are assessed as being qualified for, and in need of, social housing support as of 1 November 2023. This figure has risen by almost 1,000 households since 2022, however, it still represents a reduction from 2016, when the figures were first gathered.

In 2016, 91,600 households were on the social housing waiting list, and an annual decrease had been recorded up until the most recent report in 2023. The 57,842 households on local authority waiting lists recorded in 2022 represented a 36.8 per cent decrease since 2016.

housing delivery targets have also gradually increased, meaning that while the number of social homes being built each year has almost trebled from 2016 to 2023, 2017 (build target: 3,200, build output: 4,054) was the last year that build output exceeded the target set.

Source: Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage and Northern Ireland Housing Executive

“In the first quarter of this year [2024] alone more than 850 applicants presented as being in housing need, but as things stand we will be building less than half that number of homes over a whole year.” Seamus Leheny, CEO of NIFHA

A number of support schemes have been deployed by the Government and administered by local authorities focused on reducing the waiting list, including the Housing Assistance Payment. There has also been a strong focus on the development of affordable housing.

However, in terms of new build social housing units, figures published by the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage show that 8,110 units were delivered between Q1Q4 2023, an increase on the 7,433 units delivered in 2022.

The build trend has steadily increased from 2016, when the build output was as low as 2,977 units. Interestingly, social

Cumulatively between 2016 to Q4 2023, some 43,708 new social housing units were built, against a target of 52,310.

Conclusion

Overall, the combined data shows that the delivery of new social housing units has a critical role in reducing the number of households on waiting lists north and south. Plans for Northern Ireland to ramp up its delivery of new social homes, as has been done in the Republic, have been hampered. The recent capital allocation which suggests a dramatic fall in new build capacity could place more pressure on an already fragile housing system.

Social housing delivery in Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland 2016 to 2023/24

Northern Ireland: Total new social housing Completions for the period 2016/17 to 2022/23 (and 2023/24 to-1 March 2024) Republic of Ireland: Social housing build statistics 2016-2022 (and Q1-Q4 2023)

Ready for a clean energy future?

The new Labour government has hit the ground running on energy and climate action, announcing its plan to deliver zero carbon electricity by 2030 and accelerate the drive to net zero, writes Niamh Kenny, Project Director for North Channel Wind and Chair of the Renewable NI offshore committee.

Key elements of the plan include quadrupling offshore wind energy to 60GW by 2030, establishing the new, publicly owned £8.3 billion Great British Energy company to co-invest in clean energy projects, and creating a National Wealth Fund to invest in vital supporting infrastructure, and that was just week one.

This fearless vision for embracing the challenges of net zero and energy security in a way that maximises opportunities for growth and jobs, is something we can and should emulate here in Northern Ireland. We need to inject similar boldness and dynamism to ensure these new initiatives are implemented to the full in Northern Ireland and accelerate the benefits to our economy and environment.

Offshore wind can deliver these benefits at scale. The 2022 study The Clean Revolution: Powering NI’s Offshore Wind Industry found that 1.5GW of offshore wind energy could result in up to £1.9 billion spend with Northern Ireland suppliers over the wind farms’ lifetime, with up to £2.4 billion gross value added to the economy, and up to 32,400 fulltime equivalent job years for Northern Ireland suppliers. Up to 49 million tonnes of CO2 would be offset, the equivalent of taking 1.2 million cars off the road. And with offshore, over 70 per cent of the job creation would be post construction, bringing long-term, sustainable opportunities.

The appetite amongst the local supply chain is there. At North Channel Wind, we had the pleasure of working with

Invest Northern Ireland in 2023 to lead a delegation of local supply chain businesses and energy stakeholders to Marseille to explore offshore wind trade opportunities. We saw the floating platforms being assembled for France’s first floating offshore wind farm –Provence Grand Large – which were designed, built and installed by North Channel Wind’s owner SBM Offshore. In June 2024, we led a return visit to view the installed turbines out in the Mediterranean. This is our goal with North Channel Wind, to bring offshore wind to Northern Ireland, delivering on climate action, energy security, positive net environmental gain, and economic opportunities. Indeed, given its enviable wind and wave climate, Northern Ireland could become a European leader in commercial scale floating offshore wind, if we move quickly.

The drive for offshore wind in Northern Ireland is being led by DfE’s Offshore Renewable Energy Action Plan (OREAP), which currently contains a target for 1GW of offshore wind from 2030, and contains the various actions needed to enable delivery. As consenting authorities for offshore and onshore developments respectively, DAERA, and DFI are also key

Provence Grand Large Floating Wind Farm, with floating platforms designed and built by SBM Offshore

departments, and a joined-up approach is essential. As is input from key stakeholder groups such as environmental, fishing and local communities, to ensure developments are nature positive and bring sustainable benefits to coastal communities.

The OREAP is welcome, but it must go further and faster. Whilst it would be a challenge to deploy Northern Ireland’s first offshore wind by 2030 – in time to meet our 80 per cent renewable electricity target, and the UK’s new zero carbon electricity target – we must be bold in our ambition. An accelerated OREAP would allow offshore wind to contribute to Northern Ireland’s second carbon budget (2028-2032). By the end of 2032, Northern Ireland needs to achieve a 48 per cent reduction on 1990 emission levels, which is hugely challenging in our agriculture-heavy economy. Energy needs to over-perform. Further, it would align with SONI’s Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios, all of which include offshore wind generation from 2030.

Northern Ireland was previously a leader in renewable energy but has fallen behind in recent years due to lack of a market mechanism, planning delays, and lack of grid capacity. We need to ensure we seize the opportunity to level up with the rest of the UK through accelerating the OREAP and capitalising on the significant planned investments in renewable energy and decarbonisation outlined by the Government in Westminster.

North Channel Wind’s key priorities for government include:

• ensuring that Northern Ireland is a key beneficiary of the new energy and infrastructure investments and structures established by the Labour government, to kick-start our offshore wind industry and maximise opportunities for our supporting ports and infrastructure;

• a re-energised OREAP which accelerates offshore wind development, focused on the critical path timeline;

• a key enabler of this is a leasing round by The Crown Estate, which needs to award agreements for lease by the end of 2025;

• the target of 1GW from 2030 is unclear. A clear, timebound target will drive action, and give clarity and confidence to industry and stakeholders alike;

• offshore wind CfD auction with award process completed no later than 2027 to facilitate Financial Investment Decision for offshore projects by 2028; and

• a clear, timebound consenting process for offshore wind and its supporting onshore infrastructure. Planning delays are crippling the renewables industry and urgent action is needed. We need statutory time limits for all the consenting and

regulatory steps, backed up by suitably resourced departments.

These measures are delivering elsewhere and can be replicated here.

The new Labour administration means business when it comes to offshore wind and North Channel Wind is ready to be part of this energy revolution. It is essential that we accelerate the OREAP in order to fully exploit this golden opportunity for Northern Ireland.

Niamh Kenny is Project Director for North Channel Wind and Chair of the Renewable NI Offshore Committee.

North Channel Wind is a prospective 1GW floating offshore wind development in the North Channel of the Irish Sea, owned by SBM Offshore.

T: +44 (0)7380 426114

E: Niamh.kenny@northchannelwind.com W: www.northchannelwind.com

Northern Ireland businesses and stakeholders view Provence Grand Large floating platform assembly, February 2023.

Public sector AI deployment could boost GDP

The integration of artificial intelligence could provide an economic boost of some £2.6 billion to the Northern Ireland economy by 2030 but will likely cause a “small decrease” in jobs, MLAs have been told.

Requested by the Committee for the Economy, the Assembly’s Research and Information Service (RaISe) prepared a briefng paper to provide MLAs with an overview of AI deployment in the public sector. Furthermore, it highlights governmental data reporting on key potential economic impacts of AI deployment.

Featuring estimations from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the briefng paper states that AI use across the economy could increase Northern Ireland’s GDP by £2.6 billion.

A 2021 study undertaken by the then-Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) in Whitehall also notes that Northern Ireland is likely to experience a small decrease in total net jobs as a result of AI deployment over a 20-year period (2021 to 2041). Meanwhile, net job gains are envisaged for Belfast, Causeway Coast and Glens, Derry and Strabane, and Lisburn and Castlereagh. All other

local councils in Northern Ireland are predicted to experience net job losses; with Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon estimated to experience the greatest number of job losses.

Defining artificial intelligence

In the absence of a universal defnition of AI, the RaISe paper focuses on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries’ defnition which was agreed in 2023.

“An AI system is a machine-based system that, for explicit or implicit objectives, infers, from the input it receives, how to generate outputs such as predictions, content, recommendations, or decisions that can infuence physical or virtual environments. Different AI systems vary in their levels of autonomy and adaptiveness after deployment.”

Current regulation

In February 2024, the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) in Whitehall published A pro-innovation approach to AI regulation, which sets out the UK’s approach to AI regulation in government. The approach aims to consist of regulating AI using existing laws, enforced by existing regulators, rather than introducing new laws and a new dedicated regulator; creating an AI “cross-sector and outcome-based” regulatory framework.

The UK Government asked specifc regulators to publish their strategic plans by 30 April 2024. Moreover, in its February 2024 AI Command Paper, DSIT announced a £10 million package to boost regulator AI capabilities.

Meanwhile, a private members’ bill (PMB) on AI regulation was introduced by Chris Holmes in the House of Lords in November 2023 and was sent to the House of Commons in May 2024, seeking to establish a new AI authority to regulate AI, contrary to the Government’s approach. However, the dissolution of Parliament on 30 May 2024 for the general election means that the Private Members’ Bill has fallen.

Refecting on regulation elsewhere, the EU is introducing AI regulation through the AI Act. First introduced in 2021, the AI Act was approved by the Council of the European Union in May 2024.

In Northern Ireland, the RaISe paper indicates that academic AI innovation is currently concentrated in Queen’s University Belfast (QUB) and Ulster University (UU).

In March 2024, Invest Northern Ireland and the Department for the Economy announced a £16.3 million investment in an AI Collaboration Centre (AICC) – based at UU and operated in partnership with QUB – focusing on increasing business awareness, thus aiming to boost competitiveness and productivity.

Impact of AI in Northern Ireland

A study produced by DSIT in 2023 found that Northern Ireland was the trading location for just 1 per cent of AI businesses. Based on the estimated 3,170 active AI companies in the United Kingdom, this translates as just 32 companies trading in Northern Ireland.

The paper states: “Although the number of dedicated and diversifed AI companies operating in Northern Ireland is relatively low by United Kingdom comparison, there is visible activity taking place across business, academia, and governments.”

Moreover, a study by the Whitehall Department for BEIS – dissolved in February 2023 – estimates that

approximately 7 per cent of UK jobs face a high probability of automation over a fve-year period; increasing to 18 per cent over 10 years and to just under 30 per cent after 20 years. It also noted that across the UK on average, AI was forecast to generate jobs through productivity and economic growth. Despite this projection, the study also acknowledges that there will be a “small decrease” in jobs within Northern Ireland specifcally between 2021 and 2041.

The study also found that there would be a variation of AI’s impact on jobs on a sectoral basis. Net job gains were estimated in areas such as health and social work, professional and scientifc, education, information and communication, and other sectors. Net job losses were likely in manufacturing, transport and logistics, public administration and defence, and wholesale and retail.

Uptake of AI in the public sector

An autumn 2023 National Audit Offce survey of 87 UK government bodies found that 37 per cent had deployed AI at that point in time, with 82 per cent reporting their intention in the next 12 months.

Of the organisations that had deployed AI, 66 per cent had done so to support operational decision making, 59 per cent to support research or monitoring, and 59 per cent to improve internal processes. A smaller proportion of 19 per cent had deployed AI to directly provide a service to the public.

In January 2024, agendaNi asked Northern Ireland’s nine Executive departments and the Northern Ireland Offce about their deployment of AI applications and if there are current guidelines in place regarding the use of AI.

The Northern Ireland Offce responded stating that civil servants are “encouraged to use new technology that improves the productivity of government so we can deliver more for less”.

The Executive Offce also stated that an “AI based tool is used to provide accurate subtitles to improve the accessibility of social media videos” and there is a “commitment to explore the benefts that can be derived from AI, while ensuring there is awareness of the associated risks”.

Furthermore, the only department at that time which stated that it was currently using AI was the Department for the Economy. The Department of Infrastructure did not reply to the request, and the remaining six outlined that they are yet to use AI.

Green hydrogen a ‘golden ticket’ towards net zero goals

Mark Alexander, Energy Transition Manager at Mutual

Energy, outlines the role of renewable gases and energy storage in meeting net zero emissions targets.

Northern Ireland is a renewable energy success story. Over the last 15 years, world leading levels of renewable energy have been integrated onto the electricity grid, and currently over 40 per cent of all electricity consumed in Northern Ireland is renewable. However, despite this progress, the reality is that we need to do more if Northern Ireland is to meet its net zero emissions targets.

The gas network currently ensures security of energy supply in Northern Ireland, providing on-demand access to natural gas to heat homes and businesses, as well as fuel for power stations to balance the electricity grid. Carbon emissions from natural gas must be phased out by 2050, so how will we ensure we have a secure and

reliable energy system? It will take a lot more than simply increasing renewable electricity generation capacity.

The need for renewable gases

Northern Ireland is lucky. We have favourable conditions for production of renewable gases like biomethane, generated from agricultural byproducts, and green hydrogen, produced by splitting water molecules using renewable electricity. Renewable gases offer us the opportunity to deliver decarbonisation and move away from fossil fuels while maintaining the flexibility and security of supply currently provided by natural gas.

With a large agricultural sector, there is a ready-made supply of feedstocks for biomethane production in Northern Ireland and already progress is being made to get this renewable gas on to the gas network. Green hydrogen offers another exciting opportunity and could play a key role in decarbonising our energy supply, as well as addressing wider energy storage needs.

Our difficulty is not so much the production of sufficient renewable energy per se, but matching its generation with electricity demand at any given time. How do we deal with the problem of increasing renewable energy curtailment, when there is too much renewable energy? Equally, where does our renewable energy come from when it is not windy, or the sun does not shine?

“Developing a Green Hydrogen Hub could help manage renewable oversupply, ‘kick start’ e-fuel production in Northern Ireland, reduce emissions from dispatchable power generation, while also supporting wider decarbonisation of transport and heat sectors.”

Energy storage

The answer is energy storage – capturing surplus renewable energy and storing it for use when the output from wind and solar generation is not sufficient to meet demand. The concept is straightforward but its implementation at the scale required to decarbonise the energy system is not. This is where green hydrogen comes in. Renewable electricity via electrolysis can split water into its constituent elements of hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen can then be stored at scale over long periods of time and used as a decarbonised fuel source for controllable electricity generation during periods of low renewable output, replacing natural gas.

With strong renewable generation potential from onshore and offshore wind, and unique local geology to support development of large-scale salt cavern storage close to Greater Belfast, Northern Ireland has a ‘golden ticket’ to develop a fully circular green hydrogen economy. However, to date a lack of progress on policy and infrastructure development has prevented us from realising this potential.

Green Hydrogen Hub

Given the right policy support, Northern Ireland could develop a ‘hydrogen hub’ in the Greater Belfast area. Offshore wind farms are expected to connect to the onshore grid near existing power stations at Ballylumford and Kilroot. Large-scale, centralised, electrolytic green hydrogen production could be sited close to salt cavern storage. With a pipeline of around 35km this hydrogen network could help

facilitate and support decarbonisation of the Greater Belfast conurbation, including two out of three of Northern Ireland’s existing gas-fired power stations, as well as Larne and Belfast ports, potentially helping to decarbonise shipping.

Developing a Green Hydrogen Hub could help manage renewable oversupply, ‘kick start’ e-fuel production in Northern Ireland, reduce emissions from dispatchable power generation, while also supporting wider decarbonisation of transport and heat sectors.

UK funding is available to support development of hydrogen production, transportation, and storage infrastructure, but Northern Ireland needs to quickly position itself to compete with other UK regions.

Decarbonisation is a major challenge, and major challenges require bold, decisive action.

As a mutual organisation with no shareholders, operating strategically important gas and electricity infrastructure on behalf of Northern Ireland consumers, Mutual Energy is uniquely placed to share insights and advice, as well as deliver substantive change that will help support the journey towards decarbonisation, guided by strong corporate objectives to protect the long-term interests of Northern Irish energy consumers.

T: +44 (0) 28 9043 7580 E: info@mutual-energy.com W: www.mutual-energy.com

Five key steps to cashing in Nothern Ireland’s ‘golden ticket’: 1. Prioritise energy storage 2. Develop a regulatory framework for hydrogen 3. Scale up hydrogen demand 4. Focus on delivery 5. Breakdown energy sector silos

Northern Ireland Energy Forum 2024

Northern Ireland’s major annual energy conference...

Tuesday 17 September • Titanic Belfast

The Northern Ireland Energy Forum, now in its 23rd year, has firmly established itself as the annual conference for Northern Ireland’s energy sector and is a not-to-be-missed event for anyone with an interest in the local energy industry. The 2024 Forum will once again bring together all the key players, from Northern Ireland and further afield, to focus on the most important aspects of energy policy and the latest developments across the sector. It provides a unique opportunity for all those operating within the sector to come together for networking and discussion.

Speakers include:

Sponsored by

Ian Snowden Permanent Secretary Department for the Economy

Niall Martindale CEO firmus energy

Alan Campbell Chief Executive SONI

Katie Petherbridge Innovation Delivery Manager National Gas UK

John French Chief Executive Utility Regulator

Derek Hynes Managing Director NIE Networks

Patricia McGrath Head of Project Development ABO Energy

Christian Calvillo Research Fellow, Centre for Energy Policy University of Strathclyde

Klair Neenan Managing Director SSE Airtricity

Andrew Ryan Partner TLT

Richard Rodgers Deputy Secretary, Head of Energy Department for the Economy

Rachel Sankannawar Head of Green Economy Development Invest Northern Ireland

Sponsorship opportunities available

There are still a number of sponsorship opportunities available at this conference. This is an excellent way for organisations to raise their profile with a key audience of senior decision makers from across Northern Ireland’s energy sector. For further information on the packages remaining and speaking opportunities at the event call Olivia Ross on +44 (0)28 9261 9933 or email olivia.ross@agendani.com.

How to register

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Justice minister ‘will not appeal’ sexual offences reporting court judgement

Justice Minister Naomi Long MLA has confrmed that she will not challenge a court judgement that the Justice (Sexual Offences and Traffcking Victims) Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 is “not compatible with human rights” after three Executive parties reportedly indicated their support for the verdict.

On 31 May 2024, Justice Michael Humphries ruled that the current legislation was not compatible with human rights or press freedom.

The law, called the Justice (Sexual Offences and Traffcking Victims) Act (Northern Ireland) 2022, was passed prior to the collapse of the Assembly in 2022 and came into effect in 2023. The legislation granted those accused of sex offences anonymity for life as well as for 25 years after death to suspects not charged with any sexual offences.

Following the ruling, and after weeks of consideration, Minister of Justice Naomi Long MLA

announced on 3 July 2024 that she will not appeal the court’s decision.

Long previously said in June 2024 that she was “minded” to appeal the judgement on constitutional grounds, but that the other parties in the Executive four-party coalition did not agree with her.

The Justice Minister suggested that failing to challenge the ruling could compromise any future challenge to Assembly legislation.

“I indicated that I was minded, on the strength of the legal advice, to challenge the judgment on the

“Public interest journalism serves a vital role in any democratic society… There was no debate around the issue of the public interest, relevant to the anonymity of suspects, nor any consideration of the need for a fair balance of rights.”

Justice Michael Humphries

constitutional issues alone, but sought their [the other Executive parties] written responses by 17:00 BST on 2 July,” said the Minister. Long asserted that “my only reason for considering an appeal was these wider implications to the Assembly, its departments and ministers,” thereby determining her decision not to proceed with an appeal.

The Justice Minister also denied assertions that the law had been “rushed through” and denied accusations of misleading the Assembly.

Speaking in the Assembly in June 2024, TUV leader Jim Allister MP claimed Long had “walked the Assembly into this folly, not least by exaggerating” the proposals in the Gillen review.

DUP MLA Joanne Bunting, who chairs the Assembly’s Committee for Justice, asserted there had been “reputational damage for the minister, her department, and indeed this house”.

Bunting stated that “signifcant unintended consequences” of the legislation were missed because the Assembly “rushed and sacrifced quality for quantity”, and asked if offcials “did not know the potential ramifcations, did they not understand, or did they mislead”?

Long, who was campaigining in the general election for the entire duration of her period of consideration, denied that “legislation was rushed through in the last political mandate, adding that “while it was a challenging period for all, no processes were condensed”.

During proceedings, it was argued that victims of sexual assault could be jailed if they publicly named their suspected abusers while

the court also heard the law meant that suspects could not publicly deny allegations.

Justice Humphreys told the Belfast High Court that the relevant sections of the legislation outlining this reporting prohibition were “not law” and failed to strike a fair balance between suspects’ rights to privacy and press freedom.

The case was brought forward by a collective of media organisations including the BBC, The Irish News, Mediahuis, and News Group Newspapers.

The Act was preceded by a review carried out by retired judge John Gillen. Among the recommendations in the Gillen review was a prohibition on identifying those under investigation for sexual crimes prior to being charged. However, the review did not suggest extending anonymity beyond their deaths.

Ruling on the challenge, the Justice Humphries said: “The imposition of a criminal sanction on public interest journalism, and the chilling effect occasioned thereby, represents an interference with an Article 10 right which requires the most anxious scrutiny.”

Declaring sections of the act unlawful, he added: “They are outside the legislative competence of the Northern Ireland Assembly as they are incompatible with the Article 10 ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights] rights of the applicants.”

In concluding comments, the judge stated: “Public interest journalism serves a vital role in any democratic society… There was no debate around the issue of the public interest, relevant to the anonymity of suspects, nor any consideration of the need for a fair balance of rights.”

Lessons learnt in time: Building an industry

Peter Dixon, former Group Chairman, CEO, and Commercial Director of Phoenix Energy refects on the delivery of Northern Ireland’s gas infrastructure from scratch and the lessons that might inform the delivery of infrastructure for other sectors.

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“Fearless leadership and the will to make things happen will get you through.”

This article formed the basis of an open letter I sent to those who have contributed to the creation of the Northern Ireland gas industry and is a sobering reminder for those about to start on their own journey in the world of infrastructure. Fearless leadership and the will to make things happen will get you through.

I would like to thank all those involved for joining Phoenix on our journey. It was an absolute pleasure to be in the company of those who have contributed so much to the creation of our gas industry in Northern Ireland, which we now take for granted. It has been the honour of my almost 50 years of service to work alongside you these past three decades.

I felt it was my duty to capture some of the highlights of the past three decades.

Those who had been with Phoenix from the start (Richard Rodgers, Michael McKinstry, Ivan Bell, Alastair Pollock, and others) will not need to be reminded of the mountain that needed to be climbed. They were the people who made things happen. As those responsible for plotting a way forward, they were responsible for finding solutions to the myriads of challenges that faced us daily. Of course, Barry and his team at McNicholas Construction were instrumental in building the gas network we now take for granted.

It is fair to say that between 1997 and 2003, it was touch and go whether the business survived.

Phoenix was launched in late 1996 to a fanfare of expectations. However, its business plan was fundamentally flawed, and the licence was unworkable, failing to reflect the task of creating a new industry and utility. The initial plan saw the investors invest capital and recoup their investment on a 20-year return basis.

In a nutshell, the original plan assumed a geographic rollout of the network, rather than a market-driven one. It believed all the skills needed upstream and downstream of the meter existed in Northern Ireland. The demand for gas was eagerly awaited, and customers would form an orderly queue while waiting for gas to be piped to their

area. In addition, the plan envisaged that all of the work downstream of the meter would be an income stream for Phoenix, delivered by its own selected people. This was when oil was at $9 a barrel and Phoenix’s 20-year business plan forecast a long-run price of $28 a barrel (it was to hit over $140 a barrel by 2008).

The business plan also followed Great Britain in building the distribution network using lowpressure; that is how it had been done for 200 years. The clever alternative was to move to medium-pressure and jump forward 50 years (which we did a year later).

The business plan and the recovery period did not reflect the reality of the task. However, the then shareholders were wedded to the plan and did not take kindly to management’s assessment. Board meetings back then were a brutal affair and remain a painful memory for those who endured them.

Like it or not, the business plan had to be radically changed. The licence, whilst a good starting point, needed to be renegotiated, the investment recovery period had to be increased to a rolling 40 years from a fixed 20 years, and the bulk of the network had to be built in seven years, not 15. Partner companies had to deliver the work beyond the meter outlet, and the Phoenix workforce had to increase from 50 to around 300. Plus, over 3,000 people had to be trained to support the installation and roll-out of natural gas. Once this and many more urgent changes were implemented, the company could move forward on a planned basis.

It is fair to say that running the company daily was hard enough without the drastic changes required. Phoenix’s operating areas in the 1990s were challenging. That said, our best allies became the communities we served and still serve today and those who came to partner with us on our journey to create a more comprehensive gas industry.

Working with local businesses and being innovative allowed us to develop several significant initiatives, which created a 3,000-strong sector. Today, the downstream industry flourishes and sees competitors work together for the greater good. The Northern Ireland Natural Gas Association (NINGA),

issues agenda

established by Phoenix in May 1997, is the jewel in the crown of the local gas industry and remains one of its unsung heroes.

Between 1996 and 2010, no year went by when we did not change ownership fully or partially (going from private to public and back to private). In addition, we were involved in a regulatory licence review or renegotiation of our licence, established our service support business, raised debt, entered investment-grade capital markets for the first time, separated our operating businesses (eventually selling our supply business and creating a new supply business in the South), sold our transmission system, and established a group structure. Yes, it was a busy decade.

While all of the above was happening, we had to grow our gas customer base by, on average, 230 new customers weekly. Natural gas today is available to over 300,000 customers across Northern Ireland and is used daily by around 230,000. Over 95 per cent of our industry and businesses, as do the >200,000 homes, rely on natural gas. Where gas is available, over 95 per cent of new properties are designed and use gas.

Do I make it sound like hard work?

At times, it was impossible, frightening, and unrewarding. But despite everything,

“We dedicated our youth and the rest of our working lives to ensuring Phoenix was a successful company for Northern Ireland, centred on its customers, staff and those it answered to.”

the team at Phoenix moved forward. It was like digging a deep hole in soft, dry sand. You always had to go the extra mile, remain fearless and never give up. It is a credit to the team that we have a gas industry today.

Everyone who worked for or supported Phoenix should be proud of their achievements. Many of us put ourselves in harm’s way to get the job done and without a second thought. Back then, we were in our late twenties or early thirties (I was a little bit older) but we dedicated our youth and the rest of our working lives to ensuring Phoenix was a successful company for Northern Ireland, centred on its customers, staff, and those it answered to.

Those lucky enough to lead the company in the future should tread softly on the shoulders of those who have gone before and remember that managing a regulated utility like Phoenix is a privilege and an honour. You are running this asset on behalf of the customers you serve.

I am indebted to the management team for sticking with me through thick and thin. They were wiser than Solomon, stronger than Samson, and more patient than Job.

I wish you all the best and thank you for joining me on this journey. Without you, we would not have a gas industry to be proud of.

Peter Dixon

Peter Dixon began his career at the age of 16 as a gas engineer in with the Gas Corporation in Liverpool. Initially fast tracked through the British Gas hierarchy to lead key strategic projects in the early 1990s, he joined Phoenix in February 1997 during its fledging phase. The development of the gas industry in Northern Ireland during Dixon’s term is recognised as one of the most successful greenfield projects of its generation. He was appointed to the Phoenix board and served as Group CEO until 2014 and more recently serving as Group Chairman from 2014 until April 2024 when he stepped down from this role.

Delivering a balanced, sustainable, productive and prosperous economy

Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA:

‘A mood of optimism’

Fresh from setting out his four key priorities as part of a new economic mission and the publication of action plans to grow seven priority sectors, Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA talks to David Whelan about his ambitions in a shortened mandate.

Mid-morning in late July and Minister for the Economy has just returned from launching a £46 million agri-food investment initiative with Invest NI, having already visited a local business in Lurgan, County Armagh. It is just one of a flurry of initiatives launched by the Minister six months since taking up office, which correlates with his stated desire to “hit the ground running”.

An interview with agendaNi is just one of several back-to-back meetings on

what is said to be a typical day for the Minister who is early in his tenure and cognisant that less than three years of the mandate remain.

Asked about the short lead-in time to his new economic mission, which was launched just a fortnight after the Executive returned in February 2024, Murphy indicates that his party’s much anticipated selection of the economy portfolio as its first choice in a reformed Executive necessitated much

preparatory work to be carried out in advance.

“We [Sinn Féin] had a sense of the timeframe involved and know what we want to achieve,” he explains. “Having signalled our intention to take the economy portfolio as a party, we had done a lot of engagement on our policy priorities to ensure that we hit the ground running from day one.”

Also defined by the timeframe, seemingly, is the Minister’s approach

Delivering a balanced,

to delivering his economic policies. A February 2024 address to the Northern Ireland Assembly outlined four objectives of the Minister’s economic vision, namely:

1. to create good jobs;

2. to promote regional balance;

3. to raise productivity; and

4. to reduce carbon emissions.

The Department for the Economy has appointed independent experts to each of these objectives, whom the Minister says will act as “critical friends” in advising how, at a strategic level, these objectives should be pursued, and to help monitor progress.

While these objectives may form part of a future economic strategy, at present the Minister signals his intention not to publish a new economic strategy, but instead to bring forward a business plan in autumn 2024, which will cover the remainder of the mandate.

“In the autumn, we will be bringing forward a sub-regional economic action plan, in the context of an overarching business plan, which reflects our approach for the years ahead,” he explains. “This department had a variety of strategies, some of which have had many objectives, and some of which have had none. Given the shortness of the mandate, we took the approach that to revisit and then consult on those many strategies would leave little to no time for delivering improved outcomes.”

Murphy indicates that a call for a better strategic focus from the Department and its arm’s length bodies – as per the critical independent review of Invest NI in 2023 – as well as engagement with key stakeholders, was central to his decision to navigate towards a four-pillared economic vision.

At the end of June 2024, the Minister published seven sectoral action plans, covering areas such as fintech, software, and screen industries, which he believes are designed to “enhance growth across seven of the North’s most innovative, productive, and export-orientated economic sectors”.

Good jobs and productivity

In May 2024, unemployment in Northern Ireland reached a record low of 2 per cent. However, the headline figure masks an undercurrent of longstanding challenges, not least that the region has the joint highest proportion of low-paid jobs across the UK. In addition, some 27.4 per cent of the population was deemed economically inactive – and therefore outside the labour market – in March/May 2024, well above the 22.1 per cent UK average.

As a result of these challenges and more, productivity in Northern Ireland is deemed to be 11 per cent per cent lower than the UK average,

and almost 20 per cent lower than in the Republic.

Whereas previous economic policies tended to focus on job creation figures, Murphy has indicated a desire to ensure that better and more productive jobs are part of Northern Ireland’s economic future.

“We were [historically] selling ourselves as a low wage economy,” he suggests. “That means attracting jobs that are not stable, well paid, or necessarily highly skilled. That is in contrast to sectors of our economy that are doing well, and which depend on having a highly skilled workforce.”

In July 2024, the Economy Minister announced a consultation on good jobs and improving workers’ rights, identifying the modernising of the employment law framework as one of his key priorities.

In addition, the Minister is clear that improving the skillset of the Northern Ireland labour market is a key element of increasing foreign direct investment and ensuring good job creation. However, he is also aware of the benefits to both existing and new indigenous businesses.

Outlining his belief that productivity is a fundamental driver of overall living standards, he says: “We want to support people who have innovative ideas to start building those businesses of the future. Equally, we want to equip those existing businesses with the tools to upskill their workforce, so that they can improve their productivity, enter export markets, and take advantage of the dual market access the North now has.”

On whether the current budget settlement was enough to deliver the step changes needed for both improved productivity and the growth of good jobs, Murphy describes the financial situation as “challenging”.

“Primarily, funding for work in these areas was sourced from European funding, which was stopped, and not replaced in full, as first pledged, by the then-Tory government. That has left a significant gap, and one we are attempting to bridge as much as possible, as evidenced by the £12 million ring fenced Skills Fund which I announced at the start of July.

“The Executive has set itself the task of getting our fiscal framework correct, which we would hope would yield more support. However, that will not happen today or tomorrow, and that is why we are seeking to plug those gaps.”

Emphasising that economic growth is an Executive-wide priority, albeit led by his department, he points to wider investment plans, which can have a positive impact on the productivity challenge.

“If, for example, we invest in childcare, as has been set out, then there is an economic benefit

Delivering

to allowing more people with caring responsibilities to re-enter the workforce. Work by the collective Executive departments can all play a role in the ambitions of our economic vision. We have to try and stretch and make best use of the resources which are currently available, while ensuring we get the best outcomes.”

While no clear commitment has been given, Murphy describes party colleague and Finance Minister Caoimhe Archibald MLA’s initial conversations with the Treasury under the new Labour government as “positive” and expresses his hope for an “improved picture” in relation to funding.

“We will continue to argue the case. There is a recognition from London that we are underfunded according to our need. We need to correct that and rebalance it,” he states.

Regional balance

Another criticism levelled at Northern Ireland’s economic development agency, Invest NI, contained within the independent review, was the finding that “the regional offices of Invest NI are underutilised with staff and decision-

making largely centralised in Belfast”.

While Northern Ireland’s economy often sits as a laggard in many metrics when compared to other regions of the UK and the Republic, the local economy itself also displays a lot of disparity. The employment and economic inactivity rate gap between the highest-performing regions and the lowest-performing regions has been recorded as high as 10 per cent in some instances.

Acknowledging the criticism of Invest NI and identifying a pre-existing “Belfastcentric” approach to economic development, Murphy says that his ambition to improve regional balance is centred on amplifying local voices.

“We want to empower local areas to have an input into their own economic development, but also to ensure that their voices are heard in policy development across government,” he explains.

“I do not believe good policy is sculpted in a central building and then delivered down. We want to encourage that twoway exchange and genuinely empower local voiced to contribute to the discussion for the benefit of their own area.”

Murphy believes that such an approach will also help with the Department’s efficient use of finances. “Recognising the financial challenges in delivering the levels of support needed, a focus of resources in areas where it will have the most impact, and the greatest chance of fostering further investment, will give us the best outcomes,” he states.

Net zero

The Minister is cognisant of the potential of his fourth economic priority –reducing carbon emissions – to act as a vehicle to deliver the other three pillars. More than that, net zero by 2050 is a legal requirement following passage of the Climate Change Act and Murphy believes the focus on the transition could be a lever of success.

“We live on an island at the edge of the Atlantic Ocean meaning that we have significant renewable energy resources at our disposal. Our all-island electricity market, coupled with strong linkages and shared ambitions with the Dublin Government means that we have a broad ambition to deliver a sustainable energy system on the island, which is not subject to the variations and outside influences associated with imported fossil fuels.

“We have to try and stretch and make best use of the resources which are currently available, while ensuring we get the best outcomes.”

Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA

“By establishing a goal of delivering a sustainable and secure supply of renewable energy, we can create a lot of opportunities within various sectors of our economy. For example, we have a manufacturing sector with world-leading skills and that sector is closely linked with our academic sector, which offers great opportunities for innovation in the sectors that we are exploring, not only wind, but also for geothermal, biomethane, and hydrogen. There is a significant opportunity for us to become world leaders in those areas,” he states.

In the recent past, Northern Ireland was viewed as a world leader in the generation and system penetration of renewables via onshore wind. However, inertia, not least because of the stopstart nature of the Stormont institutions, has seen the region lag behind neighbouring countries. In 2022, over half the electricity used in Northern Ireland was from renewable sources, but by March 2023, that figure dropped by over 5 per cent, while Britain and the Republic achieved new records of renewable generation.

Asked whether there is a risk that Northern Ireland is not moving fast enough to fully capitalise on the opportunities that exist, the Minister acknowledges the need to move quicker, pointing to an appetite to do so within the Department for the Economy and among its various stakeholders.

“I think we are well placed in that we are relatively small,” he explains, pointing to work already underway to harness the connectivity between some of Northern Ireland’s most important economic sectors.

In March 2024, the UK Government published plans to support the creation of a £150 million enhanced investment zone (EIZ). The Economy Minister has indicated a preference that the initiative is used to “pump prime” green technologies and skills for a green economy.

“Done right, the transition to a greener and more sustainable economy can be a just transition that also generates prosperity for all. This sector will help drive forward my economic priorities of improved regional balance and productivity, good jobs, and decarbonisation,” he says.

“Of course, we have to move quicker than has been the case if we are to meet the targets, but significant opportunities exist and there is an appetite among industry, academia, and government to try to come together to make sure we avail of those opportunities in a timely manner.”

Optimism

Asked to outline what success over the next year might look like, Murphy says that he aims to deliver progress in each of the four economic priorities.

“We want to move closer to our net zero targets and we want to strengthen regional voices with the overall aim of improving the regional balance of our economic growth. Low productivity has been a long-standing issue and not something we will solve overnight but certainly we believe we have the right focus and are setting the right direction to improving that productivity and the creation of good jobs.

“In the year ahead, we are looking for the direction of travel to become very obvious and very sustainable. Undoubtedly, particularly within the private sector, I have encountered a mood of optimism upon taking up the role, despite the challenging public financing situation. Businesses are keen to invest in their skills, their workforce, and their plant and infrastructure.

“People are very keen to be on this journey with us and there is an optimism there that gives me hope for progress over the next number of years,” he concludes.

Positioning Northern Ireland for long-term success

New Invest Northern Ireland’s Chief Executive Kieran Donoghue discusses his initial impressions and strategic vision for the agency.

Northern Ireland is a region characterised by resilience, innovation, a strong entrepreneurial spirit, and deep attachment to places and community. These qualities have been evident in every interaction that I have had since starting the position of Chief Executive at Invest Northern Ireland, whether with family-owned businesses like agri-food company Davison Canners near Armagh, which has successfully navigated the challenges of the Covid19 pandemic and energy crises, or with multinational firms such as Seagate in Derry~Londonderry, a global leader in its industry.

The spirit of entrepreneurship and the drive to succeed are clearly evident across the business landscape, making it an exciting time to be at the helm of Invest NI.

Early impressions and highlights

Locally, a significant highlight and focus of my first six months has been my engagements with our clients, local business organisations, councils, chambers, enterprise agencies, and other key stakeholders across the region. These engagements have been

crucial for understanding the diverse needs and aspirations of the communities we serve.

Every meeting, visit, or event has been a real learning opportunity.

By listening to the challenges faced by businesses and the strategic goals of partner organisations, I am confident that Invest NI can tailor its support, build partnerships, and work together to deliver a stronger, more resilient economy that benefits all.

Undoubtedly, one of the highlights of my past six months at Invest NI, was the recent programme for the St Patrick’s Day events in the United States, where the opportunity to spend time with the First and deputy First Ministers, Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA, and their advisors was invaluable.

This visit was about showcasing Northern Ireland as a prime destination for investment and innovation. The positive reception Northern Ireland received highlights the strong interest in our economic potential.

Similarly, I recently had the opportunity to attend the Farnborough Airshow, a premier global aerospace and defence event. Northern Ireland has a strong aviation heritage, and our companies continue to demonstrate their commitment to innovation, continuous improvement and product and service quality. Invest NI supported 11 companies to attend the trade exhibition and showcase Northern Ireland’s commitment to engineering excellence on an international stage and to help them access new markets. The deputy First Minister led our delegation at Farnborough, and this highlighted the strategic importance of the sector to our region’s economy.

Supporting future economic growth

Invest NI is an organisation with a proud record of achievement and plays a vital role in economic development across Northern Ireland. This success is underpinned by the dedication and

expertise of our team, who work to support businesses to expand their operations, access new markets, and drive innovation.

The team at Invest NI has consistently delivered impactful results, positioning Northern Ireland as a trusted business partner and as a competitive and attractive location for investment by both indigenous companies and multinational enterprises. Our recent End of Year results underscore this commitment.

In 2023/24, Invest NI offered £93 million of support to locally owned businesses with 76 per cent of the companies supported located outside Belfast. This demonstrates our ongoing commitment to promoting regional economic balance.

Investing in research and development (R&D) and innovation is a necessity to achieve sustained growth and competitiveness and in 2023/24 we helped 520 businesses to invest £111 million in R&D and innovation across the region.

Additionally, our Ambition to Grow programme, launched in late 2022, is specifically designed with regionally based micro and small business in mind. In 2023/24 we had over 270 applications to the programme. This support will help these companies create new jobs, explore new markets, and develop new products, processes, and skills.

We also launched a new £5 million programme called FounderLabs. Targeted at tech start-ups, it aims to provide support to 40 high growth innovation driven enterprises. Technology-based companies are crucial to our economy as they grow our R&D base and have high-growth potential which can lead to above average salaries and enhanced living standards for all.

Our 2023 key performance indicators (KPIs) also show a strong increase across sales, external sales, and exports among the businesses we supported, with agri-food and advanced engineering and manufacturing recording the largest increase in sales.

As a result of our trade support this year we have helped companies generate over £240 million of new external sales. Since 2021 the monetary value of the outcomes of our trade support has reached over £0.5 billion – a phenomenal figure which is testament to the work of our international teams.

“The spirit of entrepreneurship and the drive to succeed are clearly evident across the business landscape, making it an exciting time to be at the helm of Invest NI.”

In short, there is a tremendously strong platform for us to build upon into the future.

Strategic vision for the future

We are currently in the process of finalising our new three-year business strategy which we are aligning strongly to the Minister for the Economy’s four policy priorities: raising productivity, creating good jobs, achieving stronger regional balance, and driving the transition to net zero. These policy priorities are the guiding principles that will shape our efforts and initiatives over the coming years.

Productivity is a fundamental economic driver, and this will be at the core of our new business strategy through investment in plant and equipment, automation, innovation, digitisation, skills development and increased exports. Our interventions will be structured and aligned with recognised productivity drivers which have been designed to reflect the UK’s productivity drivers and the drivers of those identified in the Northern Ireland productivity dashboard.

In this context, our recently launched £46 million Agri-Food Investment Initiative will support local agri-food and drink processors to help improve the overall competitiveness and productivity of the sector in Northern Ireland. We will introduce other similar productivity enhancing interventions to address specific sectoral and regional needs across Northern Ireland.

Our strategy will also focus on the green economy. Northern Ireland is already leveraging its recognised expertise in engineering, technology, and construction to win market share in low carbon and net zero markets.

Significantly, 60 per cent of our manufacturing companies are already selling into the green economy and generating £1.5 billion in turnover and £230 million in exports.

To support our green economy and low carbon ambitions, we recently launched a £20 million Energy Support Fund to help businesses to reduce their carbon emissions and improve their competitiveness through investment in energy and resource efficiency. This support will ensure that Northern Ireland is an ideal partner for international

The Energy Efficiency Captial Grant offers support to local businesses to purchase and install energy efficient equipment that will help reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions.

investors to capitalise on global net zero opportunities and to drive impactful economic growth.

Our commitment to regional balance will be another area of focus in our strategy. We are currently finalising a new Regional Property Programme to ensure that Invest NI can offer existing clients and new investors the real estate necessary to establish a new business or to expand existing operations. This programme will be a key enabler of our regional development strategy and help drive economic growth in all parts of Northern Ireland.

We are also working with our partners to ignite regional economic growth through the ambitious City and Growth Deal projects, which offer a transformational opportunity to deliver more and better jobs and a more balanced distribution of economic activity across the region.

Our new strategy will emphasise that, to deliver these desired policy outcomes, Invest NI will need to work even more closely with client companies, new investors, and key stakeholders to incentivise and enable more investment and innovation. This will involve codesigning and delivering a range of initiatives encompassing capital investment, R&D, and innovation, training and upskilling, product, and process improvements and sustainability initiatives.

Collaboration and partnerships will be key to achieving our goals. We are working closely with universities, colleges, councils, and other stakeholders to ensure that our efforts are coordinated and effective.

Transforming Invest NI

The ongoing transformation within Invest NI is not just about new strategies and initiatives; it is also about addressing the findings of the Independent Review and associated Action Plan. Several significant actions will be completed this year.

The Review provided the organisation with valuable insights into areas where we can improve, particularly in terms of our operational efficiency and the effectiveness of our engagement with client companies.

One of the key areas identified for improvement was our operating model and internal processes. The review highlighted the fact that some of our procedures were overly bureaucratic, making it difficult for businesses to navigate our support systems. In response, we are undertaking a comprehensive review of our policies, procedures, and processes to make them more user-friendly and efficient. This includes digitising our processes, investing in a new client portal, and pioneering a new, faster, and more

flexible approach to internal innovation. Our goal is to ensure that we can support our clients effectively while meeting our governance, risk management, and compliance (GRC) requirements as custodians of public funds.

Another significant area of focus is our organisational structure. The new strategy will serve as the basis for a restructuring of Invest NI to ensure that we are configured appropriately to execute our strategic objectives.

The Independent Review also underscored the importance of Invest NI leading by example. If we are going to ask our clients to invest and innovate, we must be willing to do the same. This commitment to innovation is reflected in our internal transformation efforts, where we are actively seeking to identify and address inefficiencies and opportunities for improvement.

Navigating the global economic landscape

The global economic environment is increasingly volatile, with new industrial policies and geopolitical risks reshaping the investment landscape. As we develop our strategy, we are mindful of these challenges and the need to position Northern Ireland favourably within this context.

Kieran Donoghue accompanied Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA to the US to showcase Northern Ireland as a prime destination for investment. Also pictured are Steve Harper, Executive Director International and Skills, Invest NI, and Andrea Haughan, Head of Territory – Americas, Invest NI.

Delivering a balanced, sustainable, productive and prosperous economy

The volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) model developed by professors Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus serves as a useful framework for understanding the current international environment.

We are seeing a significant increase in more interventionist industrial policies, such as the United States’ new manufacturing and innovation strategy and the European Union’s Chips Act and Green Deal. The US, for example, is proposing to invest more than $3.5 trillion over the next decade. If sustained, this strategy will crowd-in private investment into clean energy and technological innovation in strategic industries and transport infrastructure.

The combined effect of the policies being adopted by these large markets is to reshape the structure and geography of investment through the provision of bigger incentives, increasing capital intensity of production, the localisation/regionalisation of supplychains and the channelling of investment into preferred sectors such as semiconductors, life sciences, and renewable energy. Northern Ireland will have to adapt to these realities from both a trade and FDI perspective to remain competitive and attractive for further investment.

One of the most significant changes we are observing is the shift in language around trade and investment. Terms like “de-globalisation”, “friend-shoring”, “resilience”, and “strategic autonomy” are becoming more prevalent, reflecting the increasing importance of geopolitical and security considerations in investment decision-making. This shift presents both challenges and opportunities for Northern Ireland. For example, our aerospace, defence, and security sectors could potentially benefit from these developments.

Similarly, the local operating environment in Northern Ireland presents its own set of challenges and opportunities. With limited fiscal space, full employment, low population growth, skill shortages in certain areas, and capacity issues in education, we must find ways to grow our economy despite these constraints. This will require a focus on improving productivity, increasing the efficient use of existing resources, and exploiting opportunities such as the unique dual market access that we provide companies through the Windsor Framework.

“The transformation we are undertaking is not just about meeting immediate goals but is also about changing our mindset and about positioning Northern Ireland for longterm success.”

Looking ahead: Building on momentum

The more I see the more optimistic I am about the direction in which Invest NI is heading. The substantial progress that we have made over the past six months is just the beginning. We are establishing the foundation for a more focused, efficient, and effective organisation that is better equipped to support Northern Ireland's businesses and drive economic growth.

The transformation we are undertaking is not just about meeting immediate goals but is also about changing our mindset and about positioning Northern Ireland for long-term success. This includes capitalising on our strengths in the green economy, improving regional balance, and ensuring that we are ready to navigate the complexities of the global economic landscape.

At Invest NI, we are committed to working closely with our clients, stakeholders, and partners to harness the momentum we have built and to

continue driving forward. Certainly, from what I have seen, heard, and experienced in my early months, I am confident that by working together we can achieve our shared vision of a regionally balanced, sustainable, productive and prosperous economy that benefits all.

W: www.investni.com

T: 0800 181 4422

The productivity problem

With annual growth of some 1.1 per cent now putting Northern Ireland’s economy 7.6 per cent above pandemic level, signs of improvement are evident. However, short-term growth measurements fail to fully reflect the impact of longstanding structural challenges which have meant little improvement in almost two decades.

Headline figures suggest that Northern Ireland is on a growth trajectory far greater than that of the UK. An annual increase of 1.1 per cent for Northern Ireland compares to 0.2 per cent for the UK. Similarly, the 7.6 per cent increase from pre-pandemic levels in Northern Ireland compares to a 1.7 per cent GDP improvement for the UK in the same timeframe.

However, what these figures fail to reflect is a larger picture whereby Northern Ireland’s starting point for growth is much lower, thereby exacerbating the scale of percentage point growth. Quarter 2 in 2023 was the first time Northern Ireland’s economy returned to levels last observed at the end of 2007, immediately prior to the financial crash.

levels is 2.3 per cent, compared to the 4 per cent eurozone average), the UK economy has recorded GDP growth in 32 of the last 40 quarters of the past decade, compared to the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) comparison of growth in just 23 of the last 40 quarters.

UK GDP is now estimated to be 16.4 per cent higher compared to its pre-economic downturn peak at the beginning of 2008, compared to Northern Ireland which is now just 2 per cent higher than its 2007 high.

Despite itself being a poor performing economy by global comparison (the UK’s real GDP percentage growth from pre-pandemic

Similarly, comparing the Republic of Ireland’s 5.9 per cent annual decline in economic output to Northern Ireland’s 1.1 per cent increase fails to reflect that the Republic’s GDP is now 21.4 per cent above prepandemic levels.

NICEI, comparison with selected GDP measures, Q1 2006 to Q1 2024

Services

Source: NISRA NI Composite Economic Index.

Services make up the majority (52 per cent) of Northern Ireland’s GVA, and a 1.5 per cent annual growth in the sector is a large factor in overall growth across the year. Smaller contributions to growth from the construction (0.4 per cent) and the public sector (0.2 per cent), have offset a decrease in the production sector (-0.6 per cent).

Northern Ireland’s unique market access, including alignment with the EU single market rules for goods, growth in the public sector, which makes up about one-quarter of employment in the region, and the return of an Executive and Assembly in February 2024 are all attributed to recent improved performance.

A prime example of how headline figures for Northern Ireland’s economy often mask longlasting challenges in the labour market, and in particular, productivity.

Source: NISRA

Productivity

In August 2024, Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate dropped to a record low of less than 2 per cent. This figure does not reflect the some 320,000 people classified as economically inactive, meaning they are neither in employment nor classified as unemployed.

NICEI growth compared with selected GDP measures: Pre-pandemic change

Evidence suggests that Northern Ireland’s employment growth in the past decade has been dominated by growth in low productivity areas.

Key forecasts

Northern Ireland (NI)

Source: UUEPC, OBR.

United Kingdom (UK)

Macroeconomic variables

The UUEPC estimates that 73 per cent of employment expansion between 2013 and 2023 was in sectors with ‘below-average wages’.

“The greater employment increase in below average productivity sectors has resulted in low overall average wage growth,” it states.

Importantly, while Northern Ireland continues to record a steady annual increase in the total number of hours worked since the pandemic, the overall figure remains 0.6 per cent below the prepandemic position recorded in OctoberDecember 2019.

The UUEPC’s Summer Outlook points to a 5.9 per cent average nominal wage increase for all employees in 2023, building upon similar rises in the two previous years. Despite this, Northern Ireland has the second lowest annual growth rates across all 12 UK regions. When inflation is factored in, average real wages actually declined in 2022 and 2023, meaning that real wages have only increased by 0.6 per cent in the decade to 2023.

Productivity is a key driver of higher wages and better living standards, however, recent data suggests that Northern Ireland is 11 per cent below the UK productivity average, which itself is 8 per cent below the productivity rate recorded for the Republic of Ireland.

Looking deeper, productivity challenges are complex. Existing and future reliance on migration for labour supply are limited by existing and potential future immigration rules. Added to this is existing disparity in the labour market, employment rates in the most deprived areas of Northern Ireland are significantly lower in the least deprived

areas. It is estimated that if the employment rate in Northern Ireland’s most deprived areas was increased to match the Northern Ireland average, there would be almost 29,000 more people in employment –equivalent to more than 3 per cent of Northern Ireland’s GDP.

Education

Northern Ireland’s education system has also been linked to historic levels of low productivity. The continued use of academic selection in some schools in Northern Ireland has been linked to poor educational outcomes, and the disparity in outcomes depending on socioeconomic background.

In 2022/23, just 56.5 per cent of those entitled to free school meals – a measure of socioeconomic background – achieved at least five GCSEs at grades A*-C or equivalent, including GCSE English and maths, compared to an almost 90 per cent average for the wider school leaver population.

Northern Ireland has the highest proportion of individuals with no or low (NVQ1) skills of any UK region, at almost 20 per cent. While the proportion of those with a tertiary education (NVQ4+) has increased significantly in recent years, Northern Ireland suffers from a documented ‘brain drain’.

A tight labour market, an ageing working population, and a long-standing inability to address structural problems means that even small projected growth in the short term is not necessarily sustainable in the medium to long term. Renewed focus on economic growth driven by the return of the Executive in February 2024 offers a potential change to the economic outlook.

Annual Northern Ireland Economic Conference 2024

Wednesday 20 November ● Titanic Hotel Belfast

Speakers include:

Conor Murphy MLA

Minister for the Economy

The Northern Ireland Economic Conference, now in its 29th year, is Northern Ireland’s premier economic analysis event and is unique in being the only forum that takes a high-level look at the performance of, and prospects for the local economy. It is firmly established as the annual autumn summit for Northern Ireland’s economic community, including policy makers and business leaders.

Chris Giles

Economics Commentator

Financial Times

Kathleen O’Hare, Chairperson

Northern Ireland Skills Council

Jonathan McAdams

Chief of Staff, NI Fiscal Council

Helen McCarthy

Gareth Hetherington, Director, Ulster University Economic Policy Centre

Chief Scientific and Technology Adviser for Northern Ireland

Ann Watt Director, Pivotal

Sponsorship opportunities

Alex Chapman, Senior Economist New Economics Foundation

Fiona Bennington, Director of Entrepreneurship, Catalyst

a UK and global economic outlook

David Jordan, Lecturer in Economics Queen’s Business School and Research Associate, The Productivity Institute

There are still a small number of available sponsorship opportunities at this year’s conference. Sponsorship of the annual Northern Ireland Economic Conference is an excellent way for organisations to raise their profile with a key audience of economic decision-makers and senior business leaders. For further details or to discuss how your organisation can benefit from close association with Northern Ireland’s premier economic analysis event, contact Lynda Millar on 028 9261 9933 or email lynda.millar@agendani.com.

a Narrowing the productivity gap

a Recalibrating the skills agenda

a Addressing regional balance

Register now

Key issues to be examined by the expert speakers include:

a Medium term economic outlook for Northern Ireland

a Promoting innovation and R&D

a Maximising public expenditure

a Tackling economic inactivity

a Infrastructure investment as an economic driver

a The economic opportunity of net zero carbon technologies

An insight into consumer spending and experiences in Northern Ireland

Anne-Marie Murphy, Director of Strategy and Emerging Markets at the Consumer Council for Northern Ireland explains the current consumer experience in Northern Ireland and offers key insights that could help to shape economic growth in the region.

Whilst some positive economic indicators have emerged, disparity in wealth and opportunity is evident in Northern Ireland and many citizens are struggling to make ends meet and cope with financial pressures.

The Consumer Council is the statutory consumer body for Northern Ireland, responsible for representing, protecting, and empowering consumers here. Over the last three years, it has provided advice to and investigated complaints for 30,000 consumers through its helpline and engaged with over 36,000 consumers through outreach.

Through its research and insight programme, the Consumer Council monitors current and emerging issues and their impact on consumers, vital insights that can help to shape policy development and implementation.

Consumer spending in Northern Ireland

64 per cent of Northern Ireland’s economic output is driven by consumer spending and this spending is vital for rebuilding and rebalancing our economy.

In the past two years, consumers have experienced instability such as the energy price crisis, rising food costs, disruption to supply chains, and the rising cost of borrowing. Increasing inflation has eroded purchasing power, making it less likely that consumers have surplus income to spend after covering basic expenses.

The Consumer Council, through its rich consumer insight portfolio, can quantify the impact of these factors on consumer behaviours, their spending activities, and what changes people are making to cope.

For economic prosperity to continue in Northern Ireland, and for the quality of life for our citizens to improve, consumers need realistic and timely interventions, designed with their needs and experiences at the core.

Anne-Marie Murphy, Director of Strategy and Emerging Markets at the Consumer Council.

Tracking consumer income and expenditure

The Consumer Council launched its Northern Ireland Household Expenditure Tracker in 2022 which monitors the income and expenditure of all citizens across four income quartiles.

Between January and March 2022, the lowest earning households in Northern Ireland had only £29 left per week after paying for bills and essentials. One year later in January-March 2023, this figure dropped to a stark low of £19, and in the same period of 2024, it rose to £41. This marginal increase provides little relief for consumers in the lowest income quartile. Northern Ireland exhibits vast disparity in experiences and whilst the lowest earners had £41 per week left after bills and expenses, the highest earners had £678 left.

What consumers are experiencing

Economic instability has implications right across the consumer landscape. As purchasing power reduces so does consumer confidence and resilience, which has a detrimental impact on mental health and wellbeing, as our direct consumer engagement can attest to.

Our research published in August 2024 reported that 96 per cent of consumers

were concerned about food prices, 95 per cent were concerned about energy costs, 85 per cent were concerned about petrol and diesel prices, and 66 per cent were concerned about product availability and selection in shops. When we asked consumers through focus groups about the impact that rising costs is having on them; they expressed disbelief at how quickly food prices have increased in recent years, and that it has had a negative effect on their mental health including feelings of social isolation.

Consumer behaviour has changed, and continues to change, in response to these conditions.

Just under half the population are dipping into their savings to meet rising costs, nine in 10 consumers have shopped around or switched service providers, and 66 per cent have cut back on eating out. A quarter of consumers said they have had to skip meals or eat fewer times in the day. Our recent deep-dive into the use of ‘buynow-pay-later’ products in Northern Ireland showed that it is the second most used form of credit in the region, with half of those who used it saying they are using it more because of the increase in the cost of living.

The financial pressures that consumers have faced, and continue to face, cannot be overlooked. Whilst some positive

“The financial pressures that consumers have faced, and continue to face, cannot be overlooked. Whilst some positive economic indicators suggest signs of recovery, the lived experience demonstrated through our research shows that many consumers continue to face hardship that must be addressed.”

economic indicators suggest signs of recovery, the lived experience demonstrated through our research shows that many consumers continue to face hardship that must be addressed.

Looking to the future

Confident consumers drive competitive markets and economic prosperity. Together, we must ensure that consumers have the support, access to markets, choice, necessary consumer protection and the opportunity to avail of the products and services that they need and want and to experience a good quality of life.

Whilst the challenges that lie ahead for Northern Ireland’s decision makers are momentous in improving the lived experience of consumers, positive pathways continue to emerge. We welcome the return of the Executive and look forward to working together and sharing our insight. The Department for the Economy’s economic mission published in February 2024 sets out four pillars for growth: good jobs; regional balance; productivity; and net zero – all themes that the Consumer Council supports and contributes to.

As we have always done, the Consumer Council will travel this uncharted journey with consumers, representing their needs and views through our direct consumer engagement and representative research, and using this to advocate on their behalf, and help them directly through our services in complaints investigations and empowerment.

We will continue to work with governments and policy makers, locally and further afield, making sure that consumer journeys and experiences frame policy, legislation, regulation and interventions.

T: 0800 121 6022

E: info@consumercouncil.org.uk

W: www.consumercouncil.org.uk

Economic inactivity challenges persist despite Covid rebound

Although unemployment has fallen in the first half of 2024, Northern Ireland’s level of economic inactivity remains significantly higher than the UK average.

The most recent Labour Market Report, published in August 2024, shows that the economic inactivity rate, i.e. the proportion of people aged 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work, increased over the quarter and decreased over the year to 27.1 per cent.

The UK economic inactivity rate for April to June 2024 was estimated at 22.2 per cent, broadly similar to the rate of 22. 6per cent in the Republic.

Over the last 15 years, economic inactivity in Northern Ireland has been consistently higher than the UK average, with more variability in economic inactivity in Northern Ireland than the UK. Economic inactivity in Northern Ireland peaked in 2009 at over 31 per cent, compared to the UK rate of almost 24 per cent at the beginning of 2010.

Low-paid jobs

While unemployment is low, the number of people who are in low-paid work –sometimes termed ‘underemployed’ –outnumbers that in Britain. Speaking in January 2023, Nevin Economic Research Institute economist Lisa Wilson stated: “While Great Britain may be experiencing a pandemic-induced increase in economic inactivity, it does not appear that the pandemic has been the principal driver of that trend in Northern Ireland. The movements in Northern Ireland would appear to be more connected with structural causes of economic inactivity which have been a feature of Northern Ireland’s labour market for many years.”

The most recent hourly pay report shows that the average hourly rate for

all workers in Northern Ireland is £13.39. Disparities exist in the subdata, for example, the hourly median rate for full-time workers (£14.79) is significantly higher than for part-time workers (£10.68) and, overall, males (£13.99) tend to earn more per hour than females (£12.82).

The distribution of earnings in Northern Ireland also tells a story. The lowest paid 10 per cent of workers in Northern Ireland earn an average of £9.51 per hour, compared to the best paid 10 per cent, who earn around £27 per hour. Both figures are significantly lower relative to the UK as a whole, or the Republic of Ireland.

Between 2009 and 2019, the trend for both the UK and Northern Ireland economic inactivity rates was generally downward. From the onset of the Covid

pandemic, the report asserts that both UK and Northern Ireland economic inactivity rates increased. Since early-2021 however, the trends have varied, with the Northern Ireland rate trending downwards whilst the UK rate is trending upwards. Over the last year, the economic inactivity rate in Northern Ireland has seen a decrease of 0.1 per cent whilst the UK rate has seen an increase of 0.8 per cent.

The most recent economic inactivity rates for Northern Ireland (27.0 per cent) and the UK (22.3 per cent) were 1.1 per cent and 1.6 per cent higher than their pre-pandemic equivalents in November-January 2020.

UK economic inactivity is driven by older people leaving the labour market earlier. However, in Northern Ireland, this phenomenon is observed across the board, which suggest a larger structural problem driving economic inactivity. In Northern Ireland, this differentiation is characterised by a higher rate of people who are long-term sick which is potentially linked to the underinvestment in public services and the health crisis showing out in the labour market.

Economically inactive

The Northern Ireland economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) for March to May 2024 (the most recent quarter for which statistics are available at the time of print) was estimated at 27.1 per cent, which was a decrease of 0.7 per cent over the year.

The number of economically inactive people (age 16 and over) in Northern Ireland was estimated at 618,000, which was:

• up 6,000 from previous quarter (December 2023 to February 2024); and

• down 3,000 from the same period last year. Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) showed:

• a decrease of 0.2 per cent over the year in the male economic inactivity rate to 22.7 per cent; and

• a decrease of 1.5 per cent over the year in the female economic inactivity rate to 30.3 per cent.

UK regional comparison:

• The Northern Ireland economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) of 27.1 per cent was 4.9 per cent above the most recent UK rate of 22. per cent.

• Northern Ireland is the third highest of the twelve UK regions.

While employee jobs have also increased to a new series high. Unemployment and economic inactivity rates have both decreased and the employment rate has increased.

HMRC payroll data shows that payrolled employee numbers increased by 0.1 percent over the month and increased by 2.3 per cent over the year. Payrolled earnings decreased by 3.5 per cent over the month and were 7.9 per cent higher than July 2023.

Households reported, via the Labour Force Survey (LFS), over the year to April to June 2024, a 1.2 per cent increase in the employment rate (to 71.6 per cent), a 0.7 per cent decrease in the economic inactivity rate (to 27.1 per cent), and a 0.7 per cent decrease in the unemployment rate (to 1.9 per cent).

The total number of hours worked in April to June 2024 increased by 2.7 per cent over the year. This is 0.6 per cent below the pre-pandemic position recorded in November-January 2020.

The most recent Quarterly Employment Survey shows that employee jobs in Northern Ireland increased over the second quarter of 2024 and the year to reach a new series high, 824,300 jobs, in March 2024. Quarterly increases in employee jobs were recorded within the construction, services, and other industry sectors. Employee jobs decreased over the quarter within the manufacturing sector. Over the year from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, employee jobs increased across all four sectors.

In July 2024, the Department for the Economy was notified of 40 confirmed redundancies, bringing the rolling twelve-month total of confirmed redundancies to 2,550. There were 2,820 redundancies proposed in the 12 months to July 2024.

Unemployment

• The Northern Ireland unemployment rate for April to June 2024 decreased over both the quarter and the year to 1.9 per cent, and

• the most recent UK unemployment rate for April to June 2024 was estimated at 4.2 per cent.

Over the last 15 years, the UK unemployment rate peaked at 8.4 per cent in late-2011, while the Northern Ireland unemployment rate peaked at 8.3 per cent in early-2013. Following these peaks, both unemployment rates showed a downward trend until the end of 2019. After rises during the early part of the pandemic, both rates have since decreased. Over the most recent year to April to June 2024 the Northern Ireland unemployment rate decreased by 0.7 per cent to 1.9 per cent, the lowest rate in this time period, while the UK unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 per cent to 4.2 per cent.

The Northern Ireland unemployment rate (age 16 and over) for the period April to June 2024 was estimated at 1.9 per cent. This was:

• a decrease of 0.2 per cent over the quarter; and

• a decrease of 0.7 per cent over the year.

The number of unemployed people (age 16 and over) in Northern Ireland was estimated at 17,000, which was:

• down 2,000 over the quarter; and

• down 6,000 from the same period last year.

UK regional comparison:

• The Northern Ireland unemployment rate (age 16 and over) of 1.9 per cent was 2.2 per cent below the most recent UK rate of 4.2 per cent, and

• Northern Ireland is the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Employment

• The Northern Ireland employment rate for April to June 2024 decreased over both the quarter and year to 71.6 per cent, and

• the most recent UK employment rate for April to June 2024 was estimated at 74.5 per cent.

Over the last 15 years, the Northern Ireland employment rate has been consistently below the UK rate. Although showing a similar trend, the fall in the employment rate in Northern Ireland between 2019 and 2021 was steeper than the fall in the UK rate. The most recent Northern Ireland employment rate (71.6 per cent) was the highest rate since the pre-pandemic rate of 72.3 per cent recorded in NovemberJanuary 2020.

The most recent Northern Ireland employment rate (aged 16 to 64) for the period April to June 2024 was estimated at 71.6 per cent. This was:

• A decrease of 0.3 per cent over the quarter; and

• an increase of 1.2 per cent over the year (not statistically significant).

The number of employed people (age 16 and over) in Northern Ireland was estimated at 878,000, which was:

• down 1,000 from last quarter; and

• up 20,000 from the same period in 2023.

Annual changes by sex (for those aged 16 to 64) showed that:

• the male employment rate (74.4 per cent) increased by 0.5 per cent over the year; and

• the female employment rate (68.9 per cent) increased by 1.4 per cent over the year.

UK regional comparison:

• The Northern Ireland employment rate (aged 16 to 64) of 71.6 per cent was 3.0 per cent below the most recent UK rate of 74.5 per cent, and

• Northern Ireland is the third lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Self-employment:

• In April to June 2024, there were 115,000 self-employed, an increase of 21,000 (+22.0 per cent) on a year ago, and 19,000 lower (-13.9 per cent) than the pre-pandemic figure in October to December 2019, and

• the proportion of self-employed people (13.2 per cent) remains below the prepandemic proportion (15.5 per cent recorded in October to December 2019).

Employment by age:

• In March to May 2024, those aged 35 to 49 had the highest employment rate (83.6 per cent), whilst those aged 16 to 24 had the lowest (49.4 per cent), and

• compared to the pre-pandemic rates in October to December 2019, the employment rate for those aged 50 to 64 saw the largest, and only, increase (by 0.7 per cent, from 64.2 per cent to 65.0 per cent), whilst the rate for those aged 16 to 24 saw the largest decrease (by -6.3 per cent, from 55.7 per cent to 49.4 per cent).

Leading planning performance fuels economic growth

The borough of Antrim and Newtownabbey has fast become an ‘investment magnet’, attracting an influx of major companies which have chosen the area as the perfect location to establish or expand their business.

The strategic planning team and planning committee is at the heart of this success delivering a robust performance which has earned the Council an enviable reputation as a leading planning authority in Northern Ireland, consistently exceeding statutory targets.

This has been reinforced by the latest statistics issued by the Department for Infrastructure (DfI) which illustrate that Antrim and Newtownabbey was one of only three councils to meet the processing target for major applications of 30 weeks, with an average processing time of an impressive 21 weeks.

This outstanding performance combined with the innovation and commitment of the Council’s award-winning economic development team has secured a multimillion-pound investment pipeline for the borough, creating significant job opportunities, and delivering an economic boost for the borough.

Two prime examples of this collaborative work are evidenced by the results achieved at Global Point Newtownabbey and Nutts Corner, once undeveloped areas of land they are rapidly transforming into best-in-class hubs for advanced manufacturing, health and life sciences and logistics.

In June 2024, work commenced on the plans for the Advanced Manufacturing Innovation Centre (AMIC), a £100 million investment led by Queen’s University Belfast with plans approved by the Council in just 25 weeks. This significant investment also includes £10 million investment by the Council, underpinning its support for economic growth and job creation for the borough and beyond. This Factory of the Future, at Global Point, is part of the Belfast Region City Deal and will reinvigorate Northern Ireland’s industrial potential.

More recently, the Council has given the

green light to plans for a landmark £150 million investment by the Errigal Group, one of the largest industrial developments in Northern Ireland’s history. The 165,323m2 development will transform the landscape of the area, restoring the original Enkalon site, creating 690 new jobs once operational, with 200 construction jobs over a six-year period.

Planning approvals for major housing developments at Ballyclare, Antrim, Doagh and Mallusk will complement these economic investments, with over 1,200 new homes attracting new residents to the borough for employment increasing footfall and boosting the local economy.

The Council is also currently constructing two 16,000 sq. ft state-of-the-art flexible workspaces in Antrim and Glengormley which will foster business start-up and entrepreneurship, fuelling commercial development, and laying the groundwork for sustainable economic prosperity. The workspace hubs, alongside wider regeneration programmes will be key drivers to support the future success of the borough’s town centres. The impressive Antrim facility will be opening in September 2024 with construction in Glengormley underway and due for completion in 2026.

Mayor of Antrim and Newtownabbey Councillor Neil Kelly adds: “I commend the work of the officers and members who drive this economic progress, through our planning and economic development functions.

“The Council remains fully committed to supporting a vibrant and prosperous economy that promotes positive sustainable development and growth.”

For more information on our workspace hubs please visit investment@antrimandnewtownabbey.gov.uk

(L-R): £100 million Advanced Manufacturing Innovation Centre (AMIC) at Global Point; A 16,000 sq. ft state-of-the-art flexible workspace in Glengormley currently under construction; A £150 million investment by Errigal Group at Enkalon Business Park; and one of four major housing developments given planning approval for over 1,200 new homes.

All-island trade set to hit all time high

Since opening its doors 25 years ago InterTradeIreland has assisted tens of thousands of businesses on both sides of the border.

The all-island economic development agency helps firms across the island to trade cross-border, connect, innovate, collaborate, and attract investment. Its unique role is to identify opportunities for north/south collaboration that accelerate economic growth and to date it has generated £1.6 billion in business development value.

agendaNi sits down with InterTradeIreland’s Director of Strategy, Martin Robinson, who observes that the economic importance of all-island trade has never been more apparent.

Official figures from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) for 2022 show that cross-border trade reached an all-time high of £10 billion. These figures are not yet available for 2023. However, according to the Central Statistics Office in Ireland (CSO), goods trade alone in 2023 was valued at €10 billion, suggesting that the figure, including services, will be even higher.

“We know that there are significant benefits available through increased trade and co-operation across the island. We have an important piece of research underway that will help us and our partners to deliver more enterprise growth and drive productivity through collaboration. We look forward to sharing the findings with businesses, industry groups and policymakers,” Martin says.

“One of our great strengths is our agility, which allows us to respond to changing business needs. A great example of this is our All-Island Business Monitor, the

largest survey of its type on the island. We speak to over 750 businesses every quarter and this enables us to stay on the pulse of business sentiment. We really listen to what businesses are telling us, and that helps to inform the strategic direction of our initiatives and programmes, as well as provide insight to policymakers.”

InterTradeIreland’s programmes include a suite of services to enable businesses at all stages of their export journey to take advantage of all-island trade opportunities.

“For any business that wants to grow, the cross-border market is an obvious place to start. Our trade export pathway offers free specialist support to develop cross-border sales, while our Trade Hub contains all the latest information and advice for businesses engaged, or planning to engage, in trade between the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

“For example, new requirements from September 2024 will impact some businesses in Northern Ireland that receive parcels from Great Britain. Our Trade Hub explains this in detail and also includes access to advice, tailored support and a fully funded trade health check for businesses.”

InterTradeIreland also supports businesses across the island to take advantage of all-island innovation, clustering, and funding opportunities.

“Our Innovation Boost and Business Explorer programmes partner SMEs and academics across the island, delivering industry-led knowledge transfer that results in new and improved products and services. As partners of the allisland Halo Business Angel Network (HBAN), we also support the flow of equity investment to ambitious entrepreneurs across the island,” says Robinson.

One company that has reaped the benefits of InterTradeIreland’s wideranging expertise is SustainIQ, the Belfast-based software company that has emerged as a significant player in the sustainability sector.

Founded by Maria Diffley and Liam McEvoy in 2018, SustainIQ helps companies measure, monitor and report on their social, economic, and environmental performance. Both founders had identified a pressing need for efficient data capture and analysis in sustainability, which led them to create SustainIQ, a comprehensive software solution that integrates various sustainability metrics into a single, easyto-use dashboard.

SustainIQ’s software is used on over 600 sites across the UK and Ireland, with leading firms such as Gilbert-Ash, Elliott Group, McCue, and JP Corry among its clients.

InterTradeIreland’s E-Merge programme helped SustainIQ in 2021 by providing fully funded consultancy support to develop their online sales and ecommerce solutions. Liam McEvoy says the programme helped fast track their marketing to potential clients throughout Ireland.

SustainIQ was also a finalist in the 2022 Seedcorn competition, a €300,000 InterTradeIreland prize fund that helps businesses get ‘investor ready’ and which Maria Diffley said had been invaluable in helping them visualise their growth trajectory over the next decade.

Because InterTradeIreland offers support to SMEs at every stage of their export journey, SustainIQ was able to benefit from further help through its Acumen programme, which eases and derisks the process of cross-border exporting. Participants receive a significant contribution towards the cost of employing a sales resource, alongside other support such as market research, recruitment, and sales workshops.

According to Liam McEvoy, Acumen helped SustainIQ adapt their sales and marketing strategy for the Ireland market and generated an additional 20 per cent of annual revenue in 2023 as a direct result of taking part in the programme.

As a measure of its success, they recently joined an InterTradeIreland facilitated trade mission to Cork, helping it explore further opportunities in the market.

Robinson says that cross-border collaboration is hugely important for policymakers as well as businesses.

“Both economies have common policy priorities which include increasing the number of exporting businesses, good

jobs, driving innovation and assisting the transition to a low-carbon economy,” he explains.

“There is also scope to develop internationally competitive all-island clusters, which will have huge benefits for SMEs in terms of innovation, collaboration, and supply chain opportunities. We have a key role to play in helping the Department for the Economy deliver its economic vision by identifying opportunities to accelerate economic growth through joined-up approaches across the island.”

Looking ahead, InterTradeIreland is clear that it has a unique role, assisting businesses and policymakers across the island with insight, expertise, and practical support to deliver tangible benefits for both economies.

T: 028 3083 4100

E: info@intertradeireland.com

W: www.intertradeireland.com

Maria Diffley, SustainIQ.

Liam McEvoy, SustainIQ.

Social enterprise in Northern Ireland: A growing economic force for good

Social enterprise businesses in Northern Ireland are an increasingly prominent contributor to the wider economic and social landscape in the region.

Social enterprises are a unique combination of entrepreneurial spirit mixed with social objectives with the aim to create positive social or environmental impact rather than maximising profits for shareholders. They are pivotal in fostering inclusive growth and societal resilience.

Growth of the sector

The sector continues to grow under the stewardship of Social Enterprise NI, which has led the sector in Northern Ireland since 2012. Soon to be updated statistics from 2019 confirm there were 843 social enterprises in the region, contributing £1.2 billion to the local economy and employing 25,000 people. The imminent piece of research is expected to show an increase in these figures. This growth is also reflected across the UK and Europe, where social

enterprises are increasingly recognised as key players in addressing societal challenges.

Current activity

Social Enterprise NI is the representative body for the social economy in Northern Ireland and is making considerable progress in promoting the benefits of the social enterprise business model, including establishing social partnerships with the private and public sector.

Chief Executive Colin Jess states: “As an organisation we are experiencing a growing interest in the work of our members from those in the public and private sector.

“This has been driven by Social Enterprise NI’s promotion of the social enterprise business model, and by the

approval of Public Procurement Notes by the Executive in 2021, particularly PPN 01/21. From June 2022, this has mandated all government tenders to include a minimum of 10 per cent of their total award criteria to be allocated towards the scoring of social value.

“I was delighted to be asked by the former Finance Minister to represent the social economy on the reconstituted Procurement Board in 2020 and through this Social Enterprise NI has been promoting and encouraging partnerships between social enterprises and private/public sector bodies to help deliver on the expected policy outcomes.

“We are also delighted to be formally launching the Northern Ireland Social Enterprise directory in the next few weeks at our Meet the Procurer event being held on 24 September 2024. The directory will be an interactive portal, accessible to members of Social Enterprise NI from all sectors which will contain a search function by business type, location, and a means to direct message other organisations from within the site. This will create meaningful dialogue between organisations.”

Government and policy support

Government support is crucial for the development of the social enterprise sector. In Northern Ireland, various policies and programmes aim to foster this ecosystem. For instance, the Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy MLA has recognised social enterprises as a critical part of the economy and has formed a new Social Economy Action Group, with Social Enterprise NI being a core member, working with his department to support capacity building. Social Enterprise NI also play an important role in promoting the social enterprise business model within public procurement and commissioning circles. Furthermore, Social Enterprise NI plays a vital role in advocating for the sector, providing resources, networking

Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy MLA with Chief Executive Colin Jess announcing the reappointment of Social Enterprise NI to manage the Social Economy Work Programme at IncredABLE café in South Lakes Leisure Centre.

opportunities, and representing the interests of social enterprises in policy discussions, being included in DfE’s Social Economy Policy Group.

One current example of the wider role of Social Enterprise NI is in supporting the Chair of the All-Party Group for Social Enterprise, Stewart Dickson MLA’s Private Members’ Bill on Social Value.

Jess says: “Social Enterprise NI has been lobbying for many years to bring legislation to Northern Ireland. We are delighted to enjoy cross party support of this work, and we will engage with Stewart and his team to bring this through within this mandate.”

Challenges and opportunities

While the social enterprise sector in Northern Ireland is thriving, it faces several challenges. One major challenge is access to funding. Unlike traditional businesses, social enterprises often struggle to attract investment due to their focus on social rather than financial returns. There is a requirement to focus on business activity and income generation and to be less grant reliant, though this can be challenging.

Another challenge is for greater public awareness and understanding of what social enterprises are and the value they provide. This lack of recognition can hinder their growth and sustainability, as potential customers, investors, and partners might not fully appreciate their dual mission of profit and purpose.

What next?

Social Enterprise NI leads the sector in Northern Ireland, lobbying for support by engaging closely with MLAs, and continuing to promote the benefits of including social enterprises in supply chains. They encourage private and public sector to transfer the skill sets of their staff to help develop both capacity building and by creating meaningful social value by developing the social partnerships mentioned above. Increased public understanding and recognition of social enterprises will also be crucial to the sectors development.

As the sector continues to grow and evolve, it offers a powerful model for inclusive and sustainable development, where business operates as a force for good and where profits or surpluses are recycled back into local communities to support those at most need. Social Enterprise NI invites you to join them and play a part in creating a new economy for all and generate real profit with purpose.

If you want to know more, then make sure to become a Social Value Partner of

Social Enterprise NI and check out its new directory, providing access to all social enterprises in Northern Ireland. Get in touch for more details.

E: colin@socialenterpriseni.org

E: amanda@socialenterpriseni.org

W: www.socialenterpriseni.org

Members Roundtable event in Parliament Buildings with the Head of Civil Service Jayne Brady.

Inclusive Employment and Social Value event at St Comgalls.

Frequency of cross-border work increases

Better

salaries and enhanced career prospects are driving an increase in the number of people crossing the border for work.

Undertaking the first comprehensive study of cross-border workers in Ireland, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has found that crossborder worker patterns have increased in frequency in both directions from 2011 to 2021, with most increased workers travelling from Northern Ireland to the Republic for improved salaries and career prospects.

Led by Seamus McGuinness, Adele Bergin, and Anne Devlin, the study estimates that the number of crossborder workers has increased from 12,740 to between 17,827 and 19,282 over the period 2011 to 2021; equating to a growth rate of between 40 and 51 per cent. Of this total, estimates include a north-to-south increase of between 67 and 90 per cent and a south-to-north increase of 14 per cent.

Due to the higher incidence of flexible working following the Covid-19 pandemic, and the impacts of Brexit, the ESRI published the study to measure the

scale of cross-border worker patterns, and develop an understanding of opportunities and barriers associated with cross-border employment.

The study identifies that cross-border worker flows can mitigate the negative impacts of the business cycle, stating: “Cross-border flows are important for alleviating skill shortages in the Republic and function as a mechanism for lessening the impacts during rises in unemployment in Northern Ireland.”

Wage distribution

The ESRI study calculates substantial wage differences, with north-to-south workers typically earning higher salaries than their south-to-north counterparts who incur a wage disadvantage of approximately 30 per cent relative to their counterparts. Female cross-border workers also earn approximately 30 per cent less than their male counterparts.

Over 30 per cent of north-to-south workers earn a salary of more than

€75,000 in contrast to 12 per cent for those travelling south-to-north. Additionally, approximately 40 per cent of north-to-south workers earn below €50,000 compared to 55 per cent for those travelling south-to-north.

The study also estimates that weekly earnings are 13 per cent higher in the Republic, with average weekly earnings €242 higher in the Republic, equating to an annual difference of €12,584 according to nominal data.

Education and tenure

Reflecting on the level of educational attainment, just under 80 per cent of workers hold third-level qualifications, with the rate slightly greater among south-to-north workers.

Exemplifying its high added value nature, cross-border employment is disproportionately concentrated within professional and managerial positions. These positions account for

approximately 70 per cent of north-to-south workers and 67 per cent of those travelling from south-to-north. In terms of contractual status, over 90 per cent of respondents are employees, with the remaining proportion self-employed.

Over 90 per cent of respondents are on permanent contracts and approximately 40 per cent are employed in the public sector – a figure that is over representative relative to the labour force in each jurisdiction. The study indicates that 27 per cent of all employees in Northern Ireland are employed in the public sector (NISRA, 2023) compared to 14 per cent in the Republic (IPA, 2022).

However, for those travelling south-to-north, employment is slightly more concentrated in the public sector, which is reflective of the greater public sector employment share in Northern Ireland, relative to the Republic.

52 per cent of respondents have travelled from south-to-north for over 10 years whilst the comparable figure for north-south stands at 41 per cent. The numbers undertaking cross-border work for less than five years is approximately 10 per cent higher among north-to-south workers.

Impacts of Covid and Brexit

The study explores the impact of the pandemic and Brexit on the welfare of cross-border workers. Regarding the pandemic, approximately 12 per cent of workers travelling north-to-south believe that this impacted them negatively, with the corresponding figure for those travelling south-tonorth standing at 24 per cent.

The proportion of south-to-north workers who believe that Brexit has impacted them in a substantially negative way stood at 24 per cent compared to under 11 per cent for those travelling north-to-south for employment purposes.

Reasons for cross-border work

Prior to Covid-19, over 75 per cent of all crossborder workers either never or rarely engaged in remote working. Post-pandemic, 47 per cent of north-to-south cross-border workers do their jobs remotely at least once or twice a week, with the corresponding figure for south-to-north crossborder workers standing at 37 per cent; indicating a substantially lower take-up of remote working among those travelling from south-to-north.

Among those cross-border workers travelling for work purposes there is low usage of public transport, with 78 per cent of those travelling north-to-south using cars to do so. For those travelling south-to-north, car usage stood at over 90 per cent.

Approximately two-thirds of cross-border workers live within 20 miles from the border. Availability of a better salary and career prospects are primary factors motivating north-south workers, with twothirds of workers pointing to higher earnings as a factor and over 40 per cent indicating that they believed that better career opportunities were open to them as a result of working in the Republic.

Barriers

Identified barriers to cross-border working include exchange rate risk, tax return requirements, accessing social welfare benefits, the cost of commuting, and difficulties accessing financial products such as mortgages.

Concluding, the research provides strong evidence that these barriers were much more substantial for those travelling south to north, a situation worsened by the impacts of Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic. Data suggests 67 per cent of those living in the Republic and working in Northern Ireland reported facing barriers, compared to 47 per cent of those going in the other direction.

Community Finance Ireland: Empowering communities to empower themselves

Born out of a need to provide an alternative source of capital to the voluntary sector in the face of reduced grants, Community Finance Ireland (CFI) strives to “empower communities to empower themselves”, through the medium of social finance, on terms and conditions appropriate to volunteer leadership teams, writes Group CEO Dónal Traynor.

With over 24 years’ experience of lending for impact, and deploying over £95 million in supports, we provide exclusive access to credit for charities, communities, clubs, and social enterprises. As the only social finance provider to operate across the island of Ireland, our ambition has always been to lend in a sustainable and client focused way.

We have put about £95 million on the ground over the last 24 years and we have lost less than 1 per cent to bad debt. That gives a sense of how our social finance business model works but also how resilient our clients can be.

In fact, we pride ourselves on making sure that CFI does not just have clients, but relationships and these relationships

pay off over time – a prime example of this was our approach to clients during Covid-19 where we adopted a flexible approach to help roll with the unforeseen punches that the sector faced during that time.

Partnerships and collaboration

This flexibility and adaptability means we are always also seeking to source affordable and cost-effective capital that can support the ongoing viability of term and bridging loans that are appealing to our clients and offer us the chance to onward lend.

This approach has seen us work with a number of partnerships in the pursuit of social finance that supports the

sustainability of our clients and their projects.

Our most recent partnership has been with the Department for Communities (DfC) and the announcement in early 2024 that a £13 million Financial Transactions Capital (FTC) loan fund is now available for community led projects in Northern Ireland. This FTC instrument comprises a cost effective 15-year repayable loan from DfC to CFI. Of note, this is not just the first time FTC has been used in Northern Ireland for this community lending purpose, in of itself an innovation, but as importantly, it is the largest ever single injection of capital into the social finance eco-system here, ever.

For us in CFI, it is a major vote of

(L-R): Phelim Sharvin (Head of Community Finance (NI)); Mark Langhammer (Crusaders FC); Sue O’Neill (Crusaders FC); DfC Minister Gordon Lyons MLA; Dónal Traynor (Group CEO Community Finance Ireland); and Tommy Whiteside (Crusaders FC) meet at Crusaders FC, the first group to avail of the £13 million FTC loan scheme.

confidence by the Department, in what it is we stand for and how we deliver our service. Our all-island certification for both ISO 9001 underpins our commitment in that regard.

The first client to avail of this fast, fair, and flexible FTC credit line was the high-profile Crusaders Football Club who are now well positioned to grow their membership and ensure the players of tomorrow have the best facilities and opportunities, today.

Social impact

Opportunities and facilities are born out of our ability to not only manage a loan book but also understand the wider impact of social finance across the island of Ireland.

In 2023 alone, CFI approved £15 million in social finance supports to hundreds of communities across the island.

However, the real impact emanates from the £11.3 million which was deployed to voluntary groups across those 12 months.

An independent social value analysis is commissioned annually by CFI and undertaken by Rose Regeneration on our behalf, using the internationally recognised Social Value Engine platform. In 2023, this

report comprised not just our provision of social finance to communities, but also support we provided to SMEs via the Invest Northern Ireland sponsored, Northern Ireland Small Business Loan Fund (NISBLF), which CFI have managed since 2013, in a successful collaboration involving Enterprise Northern Ireland.

The multiplier effect of our support as a society, and after various deflators have been considered, has been verified at £3.69 in terms of social value per £1 invested in our communities, representing a substantial return.

The report helped identify our ‘so what?’ with our support helping to build a more sustainable community with the following outputs listed among borrower feedback:

• increased development employment opportunities and skills levels;

• improved access to community facilities and services;

• increase in entrepreneurship and business support/expansion;

• improved community health; and

• improved wellbeing through arts, culture and sport, and vocational training.

That our community lending may then be recycled, affords Community Finance Ireland the ability to exponentially

increase such social returns, on the same funds into the future.

Leaning into wider knowledge and thinking

Our ethos has always been to try to punch above our weight and to lead the social finance sector for the betterment of everyone. We are currently the only UK and Irish member of FEBEA – the European Federation of Ethical and Alternative Banks and Financiers – an umbrella group of 33 financial institutions from 15 European countries which develop and promote ethical finance principles.

This membership and my recent appointment to their board has offered us the opportunity to host its annual conference in Croke Park, Dublin for the first time in September 2024. CFI is delighted to be able to share and learn from that wider community on how we can continue to support the not-for-profit sector and the vital work it, its board members and volunteers do for their communities every day.

T: 00353 87 252 1038

E: donaltraynor@communityfinanceireland.com

W: www.communityfinanceireland.com

(L-R): Conor McGale, Evaluation and Impact Manager at Rose Regeneration and Dónal Traynor, Group CEO Community Finance Ireland, discuss the results of CFI’s Social Value Analysis Report for 2023.

Seven economic sectoral action plans announced

The Department for the Economy has developed sectoral action plans for seven sectors which it believes harness the most potential for job creation and economic growth in the next decade.

In February 2024, Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy MLA set out his vision for the Northern Ireland economy under the four named pillars of creating good jobs, promoting regional balance, raising productivity and living standards, and reducing carbon emissions.

In that context, the Department for the Economy (DfE) has set out seven areas where action can be undertaken to meet these four pillars.

With innovation seen as a key enabler to future proof the local economy across sectors, DfE, in June 2024, announced sectoral action plans for the agritech; advanced manufacturing, materials, and engineering (AMME); fintech and financial services; life and health sciences; low carbon/net zero; screen industries; and software and cyber sectors.

Agritech

1. To provide collaboration opportunities for agritech stakeholders, DfE will:

• utilise the Agri-Food Growth Deal Working Group for collaboration opportunities (commencing in 2025).

• create a Northern Ireland ‘diamond’ [a network between government, academia, and the private sector] to foster collaboration between agritech stakeholders for research and policy (action commenced).

2. To ensure a skills pipeline which can harness a prosperous agritech sector, DfE will:

• introduce a new skills pipeline with emphasis on STEM (action commenced).

• apply learnings from research and recommendations arising from Women in STEM Action Plan (commencing in 2024).

3. To promise growth while adhering to net zero and necessary innovations, DfE will:

• expand capital grants to improve productivity for food and drink processors (delivery time TBC).

• encourage the adoption of smart data practices (action commenced).

• encourage businesses to develop and implement sustainability reports (action commenced).

4. To ensure access to finance and export support while promoting regional balance, DfE will:

• grow the sector’s global footprint through targeted export and trade promotion activity (commencing 2025).

• maximise uptake of alternative funding sources including from the Irish Government and the EU (commencing in 2024).

Advanced manufacturing, materials, and engineering (AMME)

1. To tackle fragmentation within the AMME sector and enhance strategic alignment and points of influence to maximise Northern Ireland’s AMME capabilities and create a higher productivity sector, DfE will:

• introduce a devolved nations manufacturing network seeking to deepen collaboration with the UK Government (action commenced).

• consider the benefit of a super cluster to grow the sector as part of a wider DfE cluster policy (commencing 2024).

2. To ensure a future facing and inclusive skills pipeline for employees into the AMME sector and raise productivity across the sector, DfE will:

• improve pathways and career awareness (commencing in 2024).

• identify the skills deficits emerging from new innovative and green technologies (commencing in 2024).

3. To integrate and align innovation support while mitigating supply chain challenges, promoting net zero and the ambition for lower carbon emissions across the sector, DfE will:

• introduce innovation infrastructure in collaboration with delivery partners from the public and private sector (action commenced).

• encourage innovation via cross border collaboration and north-south knowledge transfer with Intertrade Ireland (action commenced).

4. To support indigenous businesses to grow and encourage regional balance and increased productivity throughout Northern Ireland, DfE will:

• grow local exports through identifying and maximising the opportunities of dual market access (action commenced).

• increase in foreign direct investment to areas of economic disadvantage (action commenced).

• establish investment zones (commencing 2024).

Fintech and financial services

1. To supporting the sector to grow at scale and support delivery of the Minister’s priorities in relation to productivity, regional balance, better jobs and reducing carbon emissions, DfE will:

• develop cross border opportunities with the Fintech Corridor and Enterprise Ireland (commenced).

• work with Invest NI to identify areas of strength and weakness to ensure the potential for new emerging areas is maximised (commencing in 2024).

2. To support growth in the sector through targeted FDI, DfE will:

• work on skills development to explore any niche emerging training and skills requirements of the fintech sector (commencing 2024)

• widening participation by exploring opportunities to tackle barriers to entry to the sector (commencing 2024)

3. To support R&D, entrepreneurs, start-ups, and scale ups to grow to scale, DfE will:

• facilitate access to later stage private sector funding to support scaling (commencing in 2024)

4. To encourage trade and investment, DfE will:

• seek to attract focused FDI investment that will support growth in fintech and financial services (commenced)

• develop and showcase a suite of subregional economic priorities as appropriate (Commenced: Publication of subregional action plan due in autumn 2024).

Low carbon/net zero

1. To promote the green economy in Northern Ireland, DfE will:

• develop propositions to position Northern Ireland as a green investment location and partner of choice for net zero advancements (action commenced)

• identify and maximise opportunities from dual market access through the Windsor Framework (action commenced)

2. To ensure workers are skilled up, DfE will:

• facilitate an industry-led Green Skills Delivery Plan based on the Energy Skills Audit published in June 2023 (commencing 2024)

3. To promote research and innovation in net zero technologies, processes, and products, DfE will:

• identify and promote research opportunities available for emerging and innovative net zero technologies, processes and products (commencing in 2024/2025)

4. To assist businesses to decarbonise and adopt greener business practices and establish funding support for green technologies, DfE will:

• continued delivery of Invest NI’s energy and resource programmes including the new Energy Efficiency Capital Grant, the Resource Efficiency Capital Grant, and sustainability plans (action commenced).

• establish a net zero accelerator fund that will provide government support to complement private investment for the development of innovative net zero technologies (commencing 2026).

Life and health sciences (LHS)

1. To tackle fragmentation within the LHS sector and enhance strategic alignment between stakeholders, DfE will:

• assist in the initial development of the Future Medicines Institute (FMI) and ensure that appropriate governance structures and management of funding are in place (action commenced).

• collaborate with the Department of Health to enable economic opportunities from health innovation (action commenced).

2. To ensure a future facing and inclusive skills pipeline for the LHS sector, DfE will:

• identify transferrable skills i.e. data analytics, AI and wraparound business, and entrepreneurship skills for LHS students (commencing 2025).

• improve talent retention and harness international diaspora to mentor and connect Northern Ireland startups to international markets (commencing 2025).

3. To foster innovation in the LHS sector, DfE will:

• improve use of health data and alignment with City and Growth Deal investments (action commenced).

• Ensure sectoral alignment with decarbonisation (commencing 2024).

4. To attract trade and investment, DfE will:

• support dual market access building on work by the DfE/DoH Medical Devices Regulatory Working Group (action commenced).

• attract FDI via opportunities provided by current developments in the sector such as the Future Medicines Institute and City and Growth Deal investments (commencing 2024).

Screen industries

1. For Northern Ireland to have the strongest screen industry outside of London in the UK and Ireland and to deliver an economic return to Northern Ireland of £431 million over a four year period (2022-26), DfE will:

• continue to roll out the Northern Ireland Screen Fund (action commenced)

• collaborate with studio owners to enhance and maximise the use of their facilities (action commenced)

2. To create opportunities to increase the number of new entrants to the industry and to develop the skillset of existing freelance crew, DfE will:

• continue delivery of the CINE scheme which is aimed at individuals from underrepresented ethnic minority, socioeconomic, and disabled communities (action commenced)

• input into Digital Skills Action Plan 2024-2034, highlighting work of creative learning centres in supporting schools, teachers and young people in delivery of creative and digital skills (action commenced)

3. To encourage implementation of new screen technologies and techniques to maintain an economically and environmentally sustainable screen industry, DfE will:

• encourage the introduction of technologies that will allow companies to actively reduce their carbon footprint and accurately collect data (action ongoing)

• explore the use of AI within projects across the sectoral areas and seek to develop a stronger understanding of its uses within the screen industry (action ongoing)

4. To ensure the industry supports vibrant and diverse cultural voices that will be recognised and celebrated equally, DfE will:

• continue Irish language and Ulster Scots Broadcast Funds (action ongoing)

Software and cyber

1. To promote growth within the software and cyber sectors, DfE will:

• explore opportunities to strengthen the North’s position in relation to cyber via collaboration and engagement with delivery partners and external stakeholders (commencing 2024)

2. To ensure that the software sector has the necessary skills from as broad a talent pool as possible, DfE will:

• research global best practice and implement pilots of the most promising approaches (commencing 2024)

• within the scope of existing DfE structures, explore opportunities to tackle barriers to entry to the sector (commencing 2024)

3. To foster innovation in the software and cyber sectors, DfE will:

• consider the potential to prioritise funding available for PhDs and post-docs in software-intensive disciplines (commencing 2024)

• foster entrepreneurship by ordering universities to offer opportunities for entrepreneurship and management education alongside relevant subject areas for the software sector (action commenced)

4. To support growth and trade in the local software sector, DfE will:

• encourage Invest NI to focus on software and cyber for export support and explore the potential for new markets/market access for businesses in the software sector (commencing 2024)

• ensure that DfE investments such as City Deal investments e.g. Momentum One Zero supporting the development of cybersecurity research and commercialisation (commencing 2024)

The power of connection: Creating long lasting impact for Northern Ireland

Chief Operating Officer of Fibrus, Shane Haslem, discusses the transformational impact of grassroots engagement, and the positive benefits brought about by increased rural connectivity in Northern Ireland.

When Fibrus co-founders Dominic Kearns and Conal Henry set the business up in July 2019, their mission was clear: To bring full fibre broadband to homes and businesses in rural, hard to reach places.

Since connecting its first customer five years ago, Fibrus has successfully done that, with a network that now extends to over 315,000 homes and businesses in Northern Ireland, enabled through a combination of public funding and significant commercial investment, and 66,000 in Cumbria, with over 92,000 customers.

Business growth has been fuelled by putting the customer and the community at the heart of the business and the growth strategy. Fibrus is eradicating the digital divide by delivering market-leading fibre broadband speeds, high-quality products at an affordable price. Coupled with local customer service and increased brand awareness the company has built a solid corporate reputation among key stakeholder groups.

Project Stratum

Project Stratum has been an integral part of Fibrus’ journey, which has already made gigabit-capable broadband available to more than 77,000 homes and businesses across Northern Ireland on an open-access network. It represents Northern Ireland’s largest-ever public investment in telecommunications infrastructure. The £200 million broadband intervention project to connect regional towns across Northern Ireland was awarded to Fibrus in November 2020, less than a year after being founded, and just months after the first global lockdown. As government

awarded contracts go, it has been a huge success story – not only for Fibrus but for Northern Ireland.

Fibrus is well on target to improve access to 81,000 premises across 117 towns by June 2025, on time and within budget, which is a great achievement for us. Beyond this, it is the legacy it is leaving in each of these towns and the longer lasting impact on these communities that has moved the dial in terms of what success really looks like.

Communities are at the heart of everything Fibrus does. It is committed to building, fostering, and supporting connected communities; those rural and regional locations that are home to generations of families.

One of its proudest accomplishments is the positive social impact the company has on the communities it serves. Through the Fibrus Community Fund, it has invested £175,000 in Northern Ireland, funding projects to address digital poverty in rural areas, benefiting over 100 community organisations to date. The funding provided enables these organisations to deliver more services to support their members. For example, the fund reduced the impact of social isolation of older people through providing funding for mobile phones and training, allowing members to make meaningful connections with their family, through digital technology.

Sport reaches every corner of Northern Ireland and is a unifier of communities. Recognising this, Fibrus launched the Play it Forward Fund in 2023, to support children’s grassroots sports. By the end of 2024 it will have invested £100,000 in this initiative. In year one of Play it Forward, the fund supported 50 grass roots sports clubs, supporting almost 7,000 children.

On a broader economic level, Project Stratum has made a significant contribution to regional connectivity, with Northern Ireland blazing the trail in terms of coverage in the UK – with full fibre coverage sitting at 91 per cent compared to a UK average of 61 per cent.

Fibrus customer case study

Jody Wilkinson, a Fibrus customer, and Director for an American construction consultancy based in Belfast and resident of County Down, has witnessed first-hand the transformative impact of faster internet speeds on his household and the wider Northern Irish community. “Before Fibrus, our internet speeds were a dismal 1.5-2 Mbps, which was horrible,” Wilkinson recalls. “When Fibrus started its rollout in Northern Ireland about six months into the pandemic, it was a game-changer for us.

“I work from home at least two days a week, managing projects across Europe and India. The reliable connection from Fibrus means no more dropped calls or video freezes. It has made my career much easier to manage from home.

“We do not need to be based in London anymore. Businesses can thrive here with the same efficiency, helping to grow our local economy,” he explains.

that has left our shores, possibly never to return.

This impressive statistic should not be underestimated. Network connectivity improves the ability of rural communities to retain talent, and live, work, and do business in the area, providing people with the same opportunities they would have in cities.

By increasing Northern Ireland’s connectivity through Project Stratum, Fibrus has helped improve Northern Ireland’s offer to the skilled workforce

As a result, there have been many anecdotal accounts which point to the fact that the brain drain issue, which has been facing Northern Ireland for decades, may well be in reverse; due in part to the strong levels of connectivity across the region which supports remote and hybrid working. To have built something that could potentially have this long lasting and positive impact on the wider Northern Irish economy is something Fibrus is extremely proud of.

Project Stratum is managed by the Department for the Economy, with £175 million of UK Government funding allocated, along with additional funding of £25 million from the Department for the Economy and the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs. The public subsidy combined with Fibrus’ investment brings the overall total investment in Project Stratum to around £250 million.

T: 028 9099 3230

W: www.fibrus.com

Northern Ireland’s productivity challenge: Picturing success

Whether the goal is the status quo or constitutional change, raising the game for Northern Ireland’s economy is a necessary and immediate task, writes co-director of the Nevin Economic Research Institute (NERI), Paul Mac Flynn.

It would not be unfair to say that Northern Ireland has an economy that has never really lived up to expectations. It is consistently ranked as one of the lowest performing regions of the UK and trails the Republic of Ireland by a considerable distance.

This performance was brought to light in the recent debates about Northern Ireland’s constitutional future. In evaluating the prospect of a united Ireland, many point to this gap in performance as an insurmountable barrier to integration, while others see it as a measure of the potential gains from a unified economy.

Many argue that it is the status quo that has brought about this underperformance, while others argue that constitutional change will only degrade the situation further.

All of these opinions are valid. However, what they all have in common is a desire to see Northern Ireland’s economic performance improve. Whether the goal is the status quo or

constitutional change, raising the game for Northern Ireland’s economy is a necessary and immediate task.

While there has been much work detailing how the failings of policy and the legacy of the past have brought us to our present circumstances, there has perhaps been less commentary about where exactly we want policy to take us in the future. We all want Northern Ireland’s economy to be successful, so what might that success look like?

A new NERI report seeks to begin that debate by looking at the comparative performance of productivity between Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Looking at the overall gap in performance, but also looking at the sectoral level allows us to see more accurately what the scale of the task will be. Delving down to the sectoral level also allows us to look at issues of structure and what the economy produces along with how it produces it.

Table 1: GVA per worker by sector (PPS) NI, ROI, and UK 2022 (PPS 000’s)

Source:

Seeing the gaps in productivity levels northsouth and east-west reveals the scale of the task at hand. But in which direction should Northern Ireland look for transformation? The answer is not as obvious as the figures would suggest.

While the Republic is clearly the best performing economy, many elements of its performance are simply not realistically replicable in a Northern Ireland context. Seeking to match many of the Republic’s policies, such as low corporation tax, may simply not be feasible or fruitful in the current global economic climate. But equally, the UK has been one of the worst productivity performers of the G7 and hardly a candidate emulation.

The answer may be to seek the best of both worlds. As with the post-Brexit trade arrangements, Northern Ireland should seek to take advantage of convergence possibilities with both economies. In some sectors, there should be no barrier to Northern Ireland converging with the Republic, but in others it may be more realistic to aim for UK levels of productivity. Structural changes also matter and how we apportion resources within our economy will also be key to success.

Table 1 sets out the productivity levels (PPPadjusted gross value added per worker employed) in each sector for Northern Ireland, the Republic, and UK. It shows that in all but three sectors of economic activity, the Republic has the highest productivity performance.

Northern Ireland, compared to the UK and the Republic, does not lead productivity in any sector. It comes ahead of the Republic in construction, while it comes ahead of the UK in health. The UK exceeds the Republic’s performance in agriculture, construction, accommodation and food and other services. The UK also comes close to the Republic’s productivity performance in finance and real estate. The Republic reports very high productivity in industry (which includes manufacturing), administration (which includes the aircraft leasing activities) and information and communication. The three sectors contribute to significantly increasing the Republic’s total productivity performance but are distorted by the relocation of IP assets (and profits) to Ireland. UK output per worker is 42 per cent of the of the Republic, while for Northern Ireland, it is 36 per cent of total Republic of Ireland productivity.

Table

2: NI GVA per worker by sector 2022 partially adjusted to ROI and UK GVA per worker levels

Source: ONS GVA by region, CSO Annual National Accounts 2022, CSO Labour Force Survey and UK data service Labour Force Survey.

Northern Ireland’s overall productivity performance would increase significantly with UK sectoral productivity levels and would increase dramatically with the Republic’s productivity levels. In first case, UK productivity levels would increase overall productivity level in Northern Ireland by 12 per cent, whereas Republic of Ireland productivity levels would increase it by 140 per cent.

As mentioned previously, the scale of output recorded in the Republic for some sectors is so heavily distorted by the activities of foreign controlled firms that it is not a realistic target for any economy to achieve. Northern Ireland could still seek to meet the Republic’s productivity levels in sectors covering hospitality, transport, and public services, but could not hope to reach productivity levels in other sectors covering manufacturing, ICT, and head office functions which are dominated by foreign firms.

In these sectors where Northern Ireland cannot match the performance of the Republic, it may be more realistic to aim for the performance of that sector at UK level. In this scenario sectors

dominated by foreign firms in the Republic and also sectors where Northern Ireland underperforms are adjusted to the UK productivity level. Table 2 shows what this would look like for productivity levels in Northern Ireland, showing a jump of almost 25 per cent in Northern Ireland’s overall productivity performance.

Obviously, switching about productivity levels between regions like this is just a thought exercise. The real job of work will be immense. But we need to start the debate on how we define success in economic policymaking in Northern Ireland.

Yes, the scale of the task may still be considerable, but there needs to be a longterm plan to lift Northern Ireland’s performance. Targets can seed motivation and also allow proper evaluation of success.

If Northern Ireland is to be a successful economy, we need to be more specific and realistic about what the success looks like.

Little sign of recovery for essential skills

The number of people participating in essential skills courses has failed to bounce back to prepandemic levels and now sits over 30 per cent below 2018/19 levels.

Essential skills, delivered by the Department for the Economy, provide people with few or no qualifications access to free literacy, numeracy, and ICT qualifications, while providing opportunities for those learners to progress within further education or to gain employment.

The 2022/23 academic year saw the first year-on-year increase in both the number of enrolments in essential skills since a large pandemic-driven drop off, however, despite the 4 per cent increase, overall figures are one third below 2018/19 levels.

Essential skills courses are delivered by further education colleges.

In 2018/19, there were 20,540 course enrolments in essential skills courses, made up of 12,950 individual participants. Year-on-year decline culminated in a record low figure of 12,980 enrolments and 8,605 individual

Essential skills

participants in the 2021/22 academic year.

However, despite some small signs of recovery, latest figures for the 2022/23 show a 34 per cent decline in enrolment figures and a 30 per cent decline in individual participants from levels five years ago.

These figures do not include courses delivered by private training providers and community organisations.

Essential skills are delivered in the form of entry level, level 1, and level 2 categories. All three categories currently have enrolments well below 2018/19 levels, however, the greatest drop off has occurred in the level 1 category.

While essential skills courses are open to everyone over the age of 16, more than half of enrolments are by those aged 16 and 17. Close to 60 per cent of these enrolments are male and almost

enrolments and individuals in further education colleges by academic year

50 per cent of all enrolments are from those categorised in the lowest two of five deprivation geographical quintiles.

Performance

Interestingly, the report highlights fairly poor success rates across numeracy and literacy in the past five years. Categorising retention (the number of completions divided by the number of enrolments), achievement (the percentage of enrolments completed by students who achieve qualification), and success (the percentage of enrolments of students who complete and achieve a qualification), figures show a large disparity between subjects.

While literacy (79 per cent), numeracy (78 per cent), and ICT (84 per cent) report high retention rates, achievement rates vary. The 63 per cent achievement rate for numeracy and 70 per cent achievement rate for literacy sit well below 89 per cent rate for ICT. The disparity corresponds in the success rate, with success in numeracy falling below half (49 per cent), while literacy success sits just above on 55 per cent. These are sizably below the 75 per cent success rate enjoyed in ICT.

Acknowledging the decrease in enrolment numbers, a spokesperson for the Department points to the impact of the pandemic, but also a continued fall in demographics for 16 to 19-year-olds.

Setting out that they are actively monitoring further education essential skills uptake, they say: “The Department is progressing an essential skills review which aims to provide an updated curriculum offer, particularly in the ICT space, and to target those learners entering colleges without qualifications to enhance their opportunities to upskill and reskill.”

Source: NISRA.

Executive spending rules adjusted for social need

The Department of Finance has formally published an interim fiscal framework which mandates per capita public spending in Northern Ireland to be 124 per cent of that in England, in line with recommendations made by the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council.

The UK Government and Northern Ireland Executive reached an interim agreement in May 2024 for the inclusion of a new needs-based factor in the Barnett formula for Northern Ireland to determine changes to the Executive’s block grant funding.

The needs-based factor of 24 per cent, based on a range suggested in a report by the independent Northern Ireland Fiscal Council, will apply from the 2024/25 financial year to new Barnett consequentials arising since the Executive was restored in February 2024

The fiscal framework report states that UK Government will “consider a review of Northern Ireland’s relative need” if multiple independent and credible sources provide evidence that relative need is different to 124 per cent.

In the event that the Northern Ireland Executive’s funding relative to UK Government spending in England falls below its relative need of 124 per cent, the fiscal framework outlines that the needs-based factor in the Barnett formula will be set at 24 per cent.

If the Northern Ireland Executive’s funding is above its relative need of 124 per cent, there will be a transitional needs-based factor of 5 per cent, mirroring the approach in the Welsh Government’s Fiscal framework. For this purpose, funding from the restoration financial package is excluded from the relative funding calculation.

At the relevant Spending Review, The UK Treasury has agreed to review and discuss the Northern Ireland Executive’s funding approach, including concerns about 2026/27 funding.

Funding under the Executive Restoration financial package

Since the 2024 Northern Ireland Executive Restoration financial package was published in February, the UK Government has provided funding to the Northern Ireland Executive as follows:

• £846 million at supplementary estimates 2023/24 which can be used to “support public services

and address pressures including pay” (the Executive has announced public sector pay increases on average of 4 per cent);

• £520 million at main estimates 2024/25 for “stabilisation of public services”;

• £34 million at main estimates 2024/25 to “tackle health waiting lists”; and

• £94.6 million at main estimates 2024/25 “un-ringfenced funding”.

Capital borrowing

The Northern Ireland Executive has undergone a number of years of overspend due to the lack of devolved government between 2022 and 2024, which has resulted in £559 million of debt incurred over the 2022/23 and 2023/24 financial years.

Under previous Barnett Formula rules, the Northern Ireland Executive can currently borrow up to £200 million capital per year within a £3 billion overall cap on outstanding debt. These limits are fixed in cash terms.

Under the revised rules, the Northern Ireland Executive’s annual limit will now increase by 10 per cent in 2024/25 to £220 million. This limit will then increase annually in line with inflation from 2025/26 onwards using the GDP deflator and 2024/25 prices.

New sustainability plan to be published in August

Announcing the new framework, Minister of Finance Caoimhe Archibald MLA said:

“Following intensive and constructive negotiations with the Treasury and approval from the Executive, this agreement marks substantial progress on the position within the financial package, with a firm commitment to review the Executive’s funding before the cliff edge in 2026/27.

“Importantly it also recognises the Executive will continue to plan on the assumption that it will be funded at or above the 124 per cent level of relative need in future financial years.

“In addition, Treasury has agreed to the 124 per cent needs-based adjustment factor being applied from the date of restoration of the Executive. This means some £24 million from the Spring Budget Barnett consequentials will now be available for allocation as part of the upcoming June monitoring round.

“Any future Barnett in 2024/25 will be at this increased level meaning additional funding for public services. The Treasury has also agreed to consider a review of the Executive’s relative need if multiple independent and credible sources provide evidence that relative need is different to 124 per cent.”

The publication of the Interim Fiscal Framework includes the scope and structure of the sustainability plan which will be published before the end of August 2024.

When asked by agendaNi on the prospect of the rules being adjusted in light of the election of a new government in Britain, a spokesperson from the Department of Finance said: “The interim fiscal framework commits both the British Government and the Executive to agreeing a final fiscal framework, which will build on the interim framework, to ensure the Executive has the funding arrangements and fiscal levers necessary to deliver sustainable public finances and public services for people here.

“The Minister has had positive introductory meetings with both the Chancellor and the Chief Secretary of the Treasury. In the meetings the Minister outlined the challenging financial situation here and her commitment to forging a strong working partnership with the Treasury.”

Finance and economics perspectives on constitutional change

An all-party Oireachtas committee has found that there is “no insurmountable economic or financial barriers to unification” in a report which gathered expert perspectives on the financial and economic implications of constitutional change.

The Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, which is made up of both TDs and senators, comprises representatives from the Irish Government’s tri-party coalition, as well as Sinn Féin, Aontú, and independents.

The first of a series of planned reports contextualising evidence to ilustrate what a ‘new and agreed Ireland’ would mean in practice, Perspectives on Constitutional Change: Finance and Economics outlines views on a number of economic areas ranging from social welfare payments to public sector salaries, as well as how the healthcare and education sectors could be managed.

A significant milestone, the agreed allparty report makes a final recommendation that preparations for referenda on Irish unification must “begin immediately”.

A further significant recommendation within the committee’s report, which will be debated in autumn 2024 when the Dáil resumes, is for the Irish Government to publish a green paper, setting out a vision for a united Ireland.

Importantly, while the Oireachtas committee achieved consensus on the report’s 15 recommendations – and no minority report was published – expert opinion within the report does diverge on several economic and financial challenges.

Perhaps the most widely discussed debate centres around the cost of a united Ireland, particularly in relation to determining the size of the UK Government’s subvention and the finance required to fill the gap between tax revenue raised in Northern Ireland and the levels of public expenditure.

While it is estimated that the current subvention to Northern Ireland is

approximately £10 billion, the equivalent cost to the Irish Government in the event of unification is unclear. John FitzGerald and Edgar Morgenroth argue that the financial pressure of a united Ireland would result in “an immediate major reduction” in the living standards in the Republic. They estimate the subvention to Northern Ireland would amount to around €10.9 billion, or 5 per cent of Ireland’s gross national income* (GNI*), while raising welfare rates and public sector pay rates in Northern Ireland to those prevailing in the Republic, would require a further 5 per cent of national income.

In contrast, John Doyle, Vice President of Research at Dublin City University (DCU), disputes this analysis, instead arguing that taxation of pensions and wages, economic convergence, and other items, put the subvention at £1.5 billion – assuming the Republic did not accept responsibility for pension

Delivering a balanced,

liabilities in Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland’s share of UK debt.

Likewise, the Economic and Social Research Institute’s (ESRI) Seamus McGuinness points to research undertaken with Adele Bergin and published in the Cambridge Journal of Economics which establishes a range of between €4 billion to €7.2 billion. McGuinness further highlights that the lower estimate equated to what Irish Government spending would typically increase by on an annual basis, and outlines his belief that this would not result in a reduction in living standards for the Irish population. In fact, the Republic’s GNI* grew by 5 per cent last year according to the Annual National Accounts 2023 published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in July 2024.

recommendation, the committee says:

“Discussions around a united Ireland include a first principles consideration on the role of social welfare, as an opportunity to build a new welfare state from the ground up, adapted to the 21st century and built on respect for socioeconomic rights.”

Healthcare

However, the Oireachtas committee recognises that the subvention is only one factor in assessing the costs and benefits of a united Ireland. Alongside potential increases in Ireland’s EU budget contribution, and convergence on social welfare payments and public sector salaries, there will also be financial implications for major policy decisions on public services such as healthcare and education.

Education

The identified “prosperity gap” between north and south has been attributed to multiple factors, most notably much poorer levels of productivity in the Northern Ireland economy when compared to the Republic. Underpinning poor productivity in the North is an education system with low levels of attainment for those from poorer socioeconomic backgrounds and which still uses academic selection – which ironically is often used to disguise wider systemic educational failings in the whole.

Indeed, Seamus McGuinness suggests that the use of academic selection explains why “the educational system in Northern Ireland is not a good vehicle for intergenerational progression in terms of education or earnings”.

The committee heard that in the event of a united Ireland, major decisions in relation to education would be required in areas such as the curriculum, examination age, the promotion of social inclusion, and the treatment of the Irish language. To this end, it says that “the complexity of designing an education system post-unification means that a transition period will likely be necessary”.

Social welfare

Social welfare payments are significantly lower in Northern Ireland than in the Republic. The committee heard calls for a united Ireland to be taken as an opportunity to design a new welfare state, and advise against attempting to emulate the UK’s approach. In its related

Noting a lack of sufficient data to compare the two healthcare systems on the island, the committee set out that a strong attachment to the NHS in Northern Ireland exists despite poorer outcomes in comparison to the rest of the UK.

Suggesting that a united Ireland could present opportunities for economies of scale regarding healthcare, it recognises that “the scale and complexity” of integrating the healthcare systems may mean that it is necessary to have a transition period after unification. The Committee intends to examine healthcare in a united Ireland in further detail in a subsequent report.

Interestingly, despite recognition that healthcare will be a central theme for which people will require detail – as articulated by John Doyle who argues that answers to questions on the process; the economy; and the health system would probably answer between 70 and 80 per cent of people’s desire for more information – none of the committee’s 15 recommendations relate to, or specifically mention, healthcare.

Instead, the committee recommends that “planning and preparation begin for the possibility of change to the constitutional arrangements for the country”, suggesting a whole-of-government approach is needed, including comprehensive examination of the implications of constitutional change across all departments and state agencies, to be led by the Department of the Taoiseach.

Cooperation

One theme that runs through many of the reports recommendations is that regardless of the constitutional future of the island, “there is scope for much stronger cooperation north/south, and better policy making to address major challenges such as climate change”. The committee notes insufficient data to meaningfully compare many policy issues, adding “there is also scope for greater people to people contact including through an increase in students studying across the border, all-island training opportunities, and professional exchanges.”

Concluding that if the range of policy options for a united Ireland were narrowed down, researchers could better provide information on the costs and benefits of policy choices, the committee says: “Preparation for referenda on Irish unification will be a historic task. The Committee calls for preparation to begin immediately.”

Education report

Renewal and reform: Education Minister Paul Givan MLA

Education Minister Paul Givan MLA outlines his ambition to set a “fresh direction” in education as he identifies the three years remaining of his mandate as a period of “renewal and reform”, underpinned by a number of significant announcements planned for autumn 2024.

On 3 February 2024, the DUP selected education as its top priority and its first choice of department in the restored Executive. Devolution is about making a difference. I have been determined to set a fresh direction for our education system for the next generation.

I have visited over 50 schools across every county and every sector. In doing so, I have been deeply impressed by the dedication and hard work of our school leaders, teachers, and support staff. That is why I was delighted to have secured the funding made available by the UK Government on the restoration of an Executive to resolve the long running industrial action by teachers.

I want to make sure our support staff also get a fair deal and that is why the Executive has agreed a potential resolution to the pay and grading review. All four education support staff unions have been consulted on this proposal and I welcome the positive responses to date. I look forward to the joint response from all support staff unions once their consultation processes have finished and I hope that revised pay structures for support staff can be implemented soon.

I have already made key interventions and have demonstrated that local ministers can make a difference.

In May 2024, I announced the biggest step change to education planning for a generation, with an ambitious and far-reaching programme of investment in facilities for children with special educational needs (SEN). This will transform the education and lives of our most vulnerable children and their families. My Department’s End to End Review is considering all aspects of current SEN policy and service provision, taking into account the range of recommendations for improvement that have been put forward through a variety of scrutiny reports.

My officials continue to work closely with the Education Authority to help it address the challenge of creating additional school places for the rapidly increasing number of children with special needs.

I have also secured Executive agreement to provide £150 million of earmarked additional funding over the next three years to deliver the Strule Shared Education Campus in Omagh. It will bring together 4,000 children and young people from all community backgrounds on a vibrant and dynamic education campus of world and international renown.

In the Assembly, I defended the right of schools and boards of governors to decide what is best for their learners against some at Stormont who think they know better and want to impose their own ideology on our children.

The Executive has made early learning and childcare a priority and I am delighted that a £25 million package of measures to support children, parents and providers with early learning and childcare from September 2024, has now been signed off.

This is an ambitious package of measures for early learning and childcare representing the most significant enhancement of early years investment in Northern Ireland in decades.

In May, I also announced an additional £80 million of capital funding for education this year, which will allow 15 important new build and extension and refurbishment projects for schools from all sectors to proceed to construction, as well as the launch of a new programme of curriculum-led investment.

“It is not just about what money we have to spend, but how we choose to spend it.”

I also announced a £20 million programme of investment to deliver innovative and community-informed approaches to raise achievement to reduce educational disadvantage in Northern Ireland.

I have launched a consultation on school uniform policy mindful of the growing pressure on family budgets. I feel that the cost of a school uniform should not be a factor that parents or carers need to consider when selecting which school they wish their child to attend.

Before autumn 2024 the pace of work will quicken further. It is not just about what money we have to spend, but how we choose to spend it.

I will respond to the important and far-reaching recommendations contained in the Independent Review of Education and make a series of significant announcements which will begin to shape our education system for the next generation.

I want us to attract the brightest and best to the teaching profession. That means paying people what they are worth, but also ensuring that they are appropriately supported and have good quality continuing professional development throughout their careers.

We want a curriculum which is based on international best practice and is proven to reduce inequality in education and schools where teaching methods are informed by what is best for our children’s learning.

We want qualifications which are based on the maximum time for teaching and learning and not taking and retaking exams. We need to ensure our qualifications continue to be internationally respected and accepted.

We need system level assessment data so that parents know that schools are delivering for their children and we understand how to continue to improve our system, particularly in the important areas of literacy and numeracy. And we need to see the resumption of school inspections which have largely been absent for a decade.

It must be the interests of children which shape and determine policy. We must drive up standards with high expectations for every child and a consistent belief that every pupil can achieve the highest standards.

By the autumn, I also hope to make a significant announcement on the way controlled schools – that is most schools in the state sector – are managed by the Education Authority. Current arrangements have served them poorly compared to other sectors. That is going to change.

None of this is easy in a constrained financial environment, but we cannot wait another generation for changes which are needed right now. I intend that the next three years will be a period of both renewal and reform.

In numbers: Education in Northern Ireland

974 schools in Northern Ireland in 2022/23 academic year

• 782 primary

• 192 post-primary

• 2 fewer than reported in 2021/22

5,015 available places at primary phase (3,077 Catholic maintained, 1,806 controlled, and 132 controlled integrated) removed under the Department of Education’s ‘Resetting for Area Planning’ (downsizing) process

335 schools with enrolments below the minimum Sustainable Schools Policy (SSP) enrolment thresholds

• 240 primary schools

• 56 post-primary schools (years 8 to 12)

• 39 post-primary schools at 6th form level

17,512 children (10.8% of total primary pupil cohort) educated in primary schools below the SSP enrolment thresholds

• 105 rural schools

• 140 urban schools

19,031 pupils year 8 to 12 pupils educated in post-primary schools below the minimum SSP enrolment threshold (500)

• 16.2% of the total cohort

2,804 pupils across 6th form educated in post-primary schools below the minimum SSP enrolment threshold (100)

• 9.9% of the total cohort

Decrease of 62 schools (47 primary and 15 post-primary) with financial deficits greater than 5 per cent of their budget

• Total of 250 schools operating outside the 5 per cent tolerance

Source: Sustainability Baseline Report, June 2024

Childcare strategy unlikely to be introduced before 2025

childcare strategy, the Department of Education has stated that a new £25 million funding package for expansion of the provision of childcare will “build the evidence base necessary to inform the longer-term early learning and childcare strategy”.

The investment in childcare, the Department asserts, demonstrates that, “despite an extremely challenging budget position, the Executive remains committed to making support for young children, their families and the services they rely on, a top priority”.

Two weeks after the scheme opened, the Department of Education announced that 10,000 children had been registered, however, the measure falls short of the introduction of a wider childcare strategy which has previously been outlined as an objective for the Department.

Northern Ireland has, for almost a decade, been the only region in the UK or Ireland without a childcare strategy. In that time, failure to legislate for targeted investment in the childcare sector has meant not only rising costs for parents but also for childcare providers.

Calls for a childcare strategy are longstanding. In June 2019, a report by Employers for Childcare found that working mothers are “more likely to experience a change in their working hours as a result of issues relating to childcare” and that almost 20 per cent of mothers reported having decreased their hours of work, or having left work altogether, compared to 6 per cent of fathers.

On 7 September 2022, the then Minister of Education Michelle McIlveen MLA made a written ministerial statement outlining her intention to standardise the pre-school reduction programme to full-time (22.5 hours) for all children aged between three and four and to “set out the direction of travel for a new Early Learning and Childcare Strategy”.

McIlveen stated at the time that it was her “intention that costed options will

be ready for consideration by March 2023”.

The then-minister described the Executive’s commitment to 22.5 hours of funded childcare as “an important first step towards a full early learning and childcare strategy”. The Executive has failed to match the ambition set out by the former minister McIlveen.

In response to questions from agendaNi, a spokesperson for the Department of Education said that the development of an early learning and childcare strategy is “a priority for his [Minister Paul Givan MLA] department”, and described the financial package as “an ambitious first step”.

On a timeline for introduction of a strategy, the spokesperson said: “The implementation of measures involving expansion and stabilisation of existing programmes will be delivered as soon

as practicable. Others, requiring the establishment of new schemes and associated delivery infrastructure have a longer lead-in time. The measures due to be implemented in 2024/25 will be closely monitored and will inform the development of the longer-term strategy.”

Upon the return of the Executive in February 2024, the DUP selected the Department of Education, marking a departure from political convention whereby parties’ first choices under D’Hondt are typically the Department of Finance or the Department for the Economy.

Upon his appointment as Minister, Paul Givan MLA stated that childcare was one of the primary reasons for his party’s selection of control over the Department of Education, and acknowledged that a package could amount to £400 million. However, writing for agendaNi, the Minister made no comment on the prospect of introducing a childcare strategy, instead reiterating his commitment to the funding package, meaning that there is no telling when a strategy will be brought forward or what its aims and objectives will be.

Childcare coverage expansion announced

The Department of Education has announced funding of £25 million for plans aimed at expanding childcare provision and reducing childcare costs for families, two years later than was intended.

The Department of Education has confirmed that 2,200 new fulltime places (an increase of 10 per cent) would be on offer by September 2025, with continued expansion from then on.

At present, only 40 per cent of children in Northern Ireland receive 22.5 hours of preschool education, with the remaining 60 per cent entitled to 12.5 hours of part-time, preschool provision.

Parents in employment in Northern Ireland can currently secure a 20 per cent reduction in childcare payments through a UKwide, tax-free scheme run through His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs.

The new publicly funded subsidy will see the parents who are eligible for the tax-free childcare scheme receive a further 15 per cent reduction in their costs, with the Department of Education providing a top-up directly to childcare providers.

In a statement, the Department of Education said that the subsidy will initially only apply to children of pre-primary school ages.

“The package of measures is designed to stabilise and support expansion of the early learning and childcare sector, offer all children 22.5 hours pre-school education per week and reduce childcare bills for working parents through a Northern Ireland Childcare Subsidy Scheme,” the Department states.

Speaking after Executive approval of the support measures, Minister of Education Paul Givan MLA said: “This is an ambitious package of measures for early learning and childcare representing the most significant enhancement of early years investment in Northern Ireland in decades.”

Childcare strategy development

December 2012

Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister [Executive Office since 2016] consultation on Towards a Childcare Strategy.

September 2013

Publication of Bright Start: The NI Executive’s Programme for Affordable and Integrated Childcare.

March 2014

Department launches Bright Start School Age Childcare Grant Scheme aiming to create or sustain school age childcare provision: breakfast clubs, after school clubs and summer schemes aimed at the 4-14 age group.

November 2015

Consultation submissions close for Draft Childcare Strategy. This process does not result in the publication of a childcare strategy.

January 2017

Executive collapses after Martin McGuinness’ resignation as deputy First Minister.

January 2020

Executive returns after three-year absence under the New Decade, New Approach deal which commits to publish a childcare strategy.

March 2020

Interim evaluation of the Bright Start School Age Childcare Grant Scheme.

February 2022

Executive collapses after Paul Givan MLA’s resignation as First Minister.

September 2022

Education Minister Michelle McIlveen MLA announces intention to standardise the pre-school education programme to full-time (22.5 hours) for all children aged 3-4.

February 2023

Review of Childcare Services in Northern Ireland released by the Department of Education.

February 2024

Executive returns after two-year absence.

May 2024

Education Minister Paul Givan MLA announces £25 million funding package, but stops short of bringing forward an Executive childcare strategy.

Executive package aims to curtail SEN placement challenges

The Department of Education has announced a package which aims to curtail the demand for school places among students with a special education need (SEN) statement.

As of 16 August 2024, 41 children with special educational needs (SEN) statements in Northern Ireland were awaiting confirmation of a school place for the 2024/25 academic year. In July 2024, this figure was 120.

This follows a 2023 independent review of special educational needs (SEN) which asserted that the SEN system

needs to be “re-aligned and reformed to move from a process-system driven to a child-centred approach which meets the needs of children with SEN”.

The review explains how, in addition the vast increase in SEN-statemented pupils, that the overall number of pupils in Northern Ireland schools has been growing steadily since 2017, with almost

Education Minister Paul Givan MLA with Principal Karen Hancock and Fleming Fulton Head Girl Mary O’Neill.

341,000 pupils registered in the 2022/23 academic year in primary, postprimary, and special schools.

Speaking in April 2024, Minister of Education Paul Givan MLA announced the SEN capital programme which is an annual ring-fenced resource maintenance and equipment programme for special schools.

The programme further increases provision of specialist provision in mainstream school classes, extension of existing special schools to provide additional places, and a new special school provision.

Givan further announced that the capital programme will cumulatively amount to a cost of £500 million over the next 10 years.

The Education Minister has asserted that the programme is a “wide-ranging programme of significant and sustained capital investment” which will lead to the development of school facilities to support children with Special Educational Needs (SEN) across Northern Ireland.

Speaking in the Assembly on 30 April 2024, Givan described the programme as “the biggest step change to capital planning in education for a generation”, with an “ambitious and far-reaching programme of investment” in facilities for children with SEN, which he claims will “transform the education and lives of our most vulnerable children and their families”.

Givan continued: “It is simply not good enough that many of our most vulnerable children are being educated in ageing facilities, too often without adequate equipment and resources. Our special school staff, who work with our most vulnerable learners, need and deserve facilities that match their skills and expertise.”

Under the programme, funding will be available for the construction of up to eight new schools over the next 10 years. Whether this is sufficient to meet future demand is unclear as, although there is consensus within the education sector that the number of SEN-statemented pupils will increase, the scale at which this increase will take place depends on a number of variables, making projections difficult.

The Department of Education has clarified two of the sites of new schools to be constructed based in Sperrinview and Knockevin, and confirmed that capital planning was in place for a second campus of Ardnashee Special School.

The capital programme also provides for new builds for a number of existing special schools, an extension and refurbishment programme for special schools, accommodation for specialist classes in mainstream schools as well as additional maintenance and equipment funding.

Outlining a four-point capital investment “masterplan” with the stated objective to “benefit every special school in Northern Ireland,” Givan added: “I have put in place an annual £5million maintenance programme for special schools as well as £4 million to provide equipment grants to both special schools and schools with specialist provisions, to ensure they have the right resources to support their pupils.

“We are rightly proud to have wonderful special schools across Northern Ireland and we know the life-changing impact that a successful special school has on pupils and their families.”

The Minister concluded: “Our hopes and ambitions for our children with SEN should be the same as for any other child. This programme of capital investment is wide-ranging and necessarily ambitious and will transform the special education provision in Northern Ireland.”

In response, Sinn Féin spokesperson for children and young people Danny Baker MLA called on the Education Minister to explore a “SEN first” strategy meaning that children with SEN would form part of a school’s planned enrolment numbers and would ensure they are prioritised.

”By doing this we could provide assurance for parents, clarity for schools and would ensure the proper support required for children with SEN is in place from the beginning of term,” he said.

Early intervention programme reform ‘resource dependent’

The Department of Education has welcomed the findings of an independent review which recommends significant reforms of its early years intervention programmes, but said that a forthcoming implementation plan will be “based on the budget available”.

No publication date has been outlined for the implementation plan, which the Department of Education says it will develop after consideration of the recommendations, alongside the Department of Health and other stakeholders.

The Review of Department of Education Targeted Early Years Interventions was published in December 2023, and forms part of the Department’s focus on early years support for disadvantaged children, as recommended by A Fair Start, the Executive-endorsed report and action plan on educational underachievement.

Commissioned to examine the efficiency of existing targeted intervention programmes such as Sure Start, the report outlines increasing levels of need and demand for the existing early intervention programmes, while also identifying gaps in the system and a need to support access for those who are most in need of the service.

While ultimately suggesting that existing programmes are retained and in some areas, expanded, the report’s recommendations do indicate the need for significant reforms to administrative and oversight structures.

Asked to outline the Department’s planned actions following the report’s publication, a spokesperson said: “The Department of Education welcomes the findings of the Independent Review of Department of Education Targeted Early Years Interventions. The Department of Education will work with the Department of Health and other stakeholders to consider the recommendations detailed within the report and develop an implementation plan based on the budget available.”

Although no implementation plan has yet been delivered, the expansion of the Department of Education’s early years intervention programmes is expected to form part of a £7 million investment announced by the Minister of Education.

The intervention is part of a wider £25 million package announced for early learning and childcare measures by Education Minister Paul Givan MLA in May 2024.

Although details of direct actions have yet to be finalised, an urgent written ministerial statement to the Northern Ireland Assembly by Givan outlined an investment of approximately £7.1 million, to enable “secure and expand core early years early years programmes”.

The Department’s early years interventions are centred on three core programmes in the form of Sure Start, Toybox and The Pathway Fund. Making reference to these programmes, the financial allocation also mentions “other” programmes, including those focused on supporting children with special educational need and disabilities.

Review of Department of Education Targeted Early Years Interventions

Sure Start was first introduced in 2000 by the then Department for Health, Social Services and Public Safety and there are 38 Sure Start projects across Northern Ireland. The Department for Education is responsible for the strategic development and policy of the Sure Start Programme, as well as the financial accountability. However, the administration of Sure Start and oversight of the Department of Education’s funding is the responsibility of the Strategic Planning and Performance Group (SPPG) in the Department of Health.

Sure Start

Sure Start is a programme for parents and children under the age of four and is targeted towards the 25 per cent most disadvantaged areas in Northern Ireland, through the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure (NIMDM 2010). First introduced to Northern Ireland in 2000, its overarching aim is to improve language skills; identify developmental delay; enhance parenting skills; and improve access to services. There are 38 Sure Start projects across Northern Ireland.

Toybox

Introduced in 2003 to meet Traveller children’s need, it now provides support to Traveller and Roma children and their parents before, during, and after pre-school.

The Pathway Fund

Introduced in 2016, The Pathway Fund focuses on the provision of early years education and learning services for children aged up to four and is open to sessional day care providers, full day care providers and childminders. It funds a wide range of different projects across two funding streams, up to £15,000 and £30,000 respectively.

While the review recommends that Sure Start remains a Department of Education programme, it points to arrangements between the Department of Education and the Department of Health as “overly bureaucratic”, and suggests it should be simplified using mechanisms such as “technical transfers”.

“Most stakeholders and practitioners did not advocate for major changes to the fundamental structures that administer and oversee Sure Start. However, a number of reforms were described as necessary to reduce bureaucratic burdens, to improve streamlining, and to ensure effective use of resources,” it explains.

Amongst the tangible reforms suggested includes the creation of dual accountability for the ministers of both departments of Sure Start, which it is suggested could encourage a more proactive approach to its development and the management of resources.

In addition, the review suggests that “a lack of clarity between departments in the administration and oversight of Sure Start”, has been contributed to by a delay in agreeing on an updated memorandum of understanding (MoU) and documentation, to structure reporting arrangements and expectations, between the two departments and the SPPG.

Interestingly, the review recommends that Sure Start targeting continues to be based on the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure (NIMDM) and continues to be aimed towards children who are most at risk of not meeting their development goals.

It adds: “There is a strong justification for the recent expansion of Sure Start, and it is a recommendation from this review that the 22 recently added areas continue to be retained within the programme.”

In the context of increased need and demand from both within and outside of Sure Start areas (most Sure Starts are already supporting a small proportion of children from outside of their area), the review reports a “need to address gaps in the system and support access”.

“Greater clarity was encouraged around what degree of flexibility is permitted to help support children and families in need of support but who live outside the Sure Start area,” it states.

Assessing the three Early Years programmes as serving sufficiently different purposes and specific needs, but functioning together with complementarity, the review recommends that all three programmes continue to operate and be supported.

“Given the increased need and demand experienced across the early years sector, the Pathway Fund and Toybox offer support in relation to both distinct groups, and by offering distinct services.”

Highlighting the wider benefits of funding beyond the development of individual children, the review highlights value of support staff retention in sectors such as the community and voluntary sectors, warning: “loss of funding would likely create significant challenges in retaining staff and would result in project closure and impact on other projects delivered by organisations in receipt of Pathway funding.”

A concluding recommendation relates to the Pathway programme helping to bridge demand gaps in areas where there is limited access to Sure Start.

“To reduce the potential for duplication Pathway funding may be targeted towards areas not covered by Sure Start. Given the lack of access to Sure Start in many areas, the Pathway Fund offers one mechanism to expand early years services. Pathway funded projects could be a venue for provision of satellite Sure Start services, however this would require further research and costing.”

Decarbonising school transport

Challenges remain in decarbonising the school transport sector as there has been little change in average mode of transport utilised by school pupils in the last decade.

Under the Climate Change Act, Northern Ireland is required to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, with figures released in June 2024 by the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs showing that CO2 emissions from the transport sector marginally increased in 2022 compared to 2021, and have increased by 7 per cent since 1990.

The Department of Education’s Climate Action Plan commits to a sectoral decarbonisation target of 29 per cent by 2030.

Despite these challenges, statistics released by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) show that, in the 2022/23

academic year, 62 per cent of primary school age children (aged between four and 11) were driven to and from school via car while 30 per cent walked to and from school. 7 per cent of primary school age children travelled to and from school via bus and 1 per cent cycled. Among post-primary school pupils, mostly aged between 11 and 18, 42 per cent travelled to and from school by bus as their main mode of travel, while 36 per cent travelled to and from school by car. A further 21 per cent of pupils walked to and from school, while 2 per cent travelled by train.

Of the primary school age children who walked to school, 95 per cent walked all of the way to

“The Department of Education’s Climate Action Plan commits to a sectoral decarbonisation target of 29 per cent by 2030.”

and from school. 39 per cent spent 10 minutes or less walking to and from school and 39 per cent spent between 11 and 20 minutes.

81 per cent of post-primary school pupils walked all of the way to and/or from school in the 2022/23 academic year, lower than the proportion who walked all of the way to school in 2021/22 (89 per cent). 31 per cent of post-primary school pupils spent 10 minutes or less walking to and from school, 39 per cent spent between 11 and 20 minutes, and 14 per cent spent between 21 and 30 minutes.

Accessibility to active travel/public transport options

In 2022/23, a higher proportion of primary school pupils living in rural areas (80 per cent) travelled to/from school by car than those living in urban areas (59 per cent). Similarly, a higher proportion of those living in rural areas (11 per cent) took the bus to/from school, compared to urban areas (6 per cent). Those living in urban areas (40 per cent) were more likely to walk than those living in rural areas (17 per cent).

In 2022/2023, there were 794 primary schools and 192 postprimary schools in Northern Ireland, meaning that walking is a more prominent option for children of primary school age. NISRA asserts that it is “likely that children will live closer to primary schools than post-primary schools and these results are not unexpected”. Furthermore, older children, the statistics suggest, are more likely to travel further to attend a postprimary school of their choice.

Of primary school pupils, 49 per cent lived one mile or less from their school, 33 per cent lived between two and three miles and 19 per cent lived four or more miles from their school.

Of post primary school pupils, 51 per cent lived 4 or more miles away from their school, 28 per cent lived between two and three miles away from their school and 22 per cent lived between one mile or less away from home. Of these pupils, 64 per cent travelled by bus and 29 per cent were driven by car.

The statistics show that post-primary school pupils living in urban areas (31 per cent) were more likely to walk to/from school than those living in rural areas (6 per cent). Those living in rural areas (64 per cent) were more likely to take the bus than those living in urban areas (40 per cent).

The Department of Education has stated its commitment to decarbonisation. No formal action plans are in place to reduce carbon output from the transport sector overall in spite of the passage of the Climate Change (Northern Ireland) Act 2022, meaning that there remains work to be done for decisionmakers in enabling the transport sector to contribute to Northern Ireland’s emissions reductions targets.

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Executive Legislation Programme 2024

Updated procedures for managing public health emergencies, the establishment of a permanent Fiscal Council and the potential closure of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) are amongst the Executive’s legislative priorities for the remainder of 2024, a programme described as “anti-climatic” by the Opposition.

In June 2024, almost halfway through the calendar year, First Minister Michelle O’Neill MLA and deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly MLA published the Northern Ireland Executive’s Legislation Programme for 2024.

Described as “thin” by the SDLP’s Matthew O’Toole MLA, the Leader of the Opposition said that the outline of legislation to be taken forward by the Executive in the remainder of the year fell “weakly short” from a number of pledges of action made by ministers to the Assembly since the Executive reformed in February.

Acknowledging that many of the measures contained in the legislative programme are “overdue”, the Executive Office said that the 2024

programme was a “more than substantial one than normal” for a single year and added the assessment that it was a “very challenging one”.

In a written ministerial statement, the first and deputy first ministers emphasised that the programme only included measures which had been developed enough to permit their introduction by the end of the year, and does not represent all of the ministerial legislative intentions for the remainder of the mandate in 2027.

The extent of the bills set to be introduced vary in stature, ranging from plans to legislate for a public inquiry into mother and baby institutions, Magdalene laundries and workhouses, to ‘housekeeping’ bills, necessary for the annual financial cycle such as budget bills.

Executive Office

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First announced as part of a statement to the Assembly in November 2021, the First and deputy First Minister have signalled their intention to introduce a bill that will establish a statutory public inquiry to investigate mother and baby institutions, Magdalene laundries and workhouses between 1922 and 1995. In addition, the Bill will include provision for a redress service.

Communities

The Minister has signalled his intention to progress four bills in total by the end of 2024. The Defective Premises Bill is awaiting royal assent, having completed the final stage on 2 July, following its introduction under accelerated passage. In response to recent attempts to have claims by residents in Belfast’s Victoria Square Apartment Complex struck out on the basis of limitation, the Bill aims to reform the limitation periods for claims related to defective or damaged buildings, aligning with legislative provisions in the rest of the UK.

Two other bills which have also been introduced to the Assembly include the Pensions (automatic enrolment) Bill, enabling the Department for Communities regulation-making powers to extend the scope of the current automatic enrolment of jobholders into pension schemes, and the Child Support Enforcement Bill will make provision for the enforcement of child support maintenance and other maintenance to maintain parity with UK legislation.

Finally, the Minister intends to introduce a bill which will guarantee access to services through British and Irish sign language.

Economy

Although details are lacking on a Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) Scheme Bill, with the legislative programme simply stating that the Bill will “make provisions for the future of the scheme”, it is expected that the Bill will enact the pledge made in the 2020 New Decade, New Approach agreement that would see “RHI closed down and replaced by a scheme that effectively cuts carbon emissions”.

Also energy related, a utility regulator decarbonisation powers bill is set to provide a new function for the Utility Regulator to “enable it to support the Department for the Economy in the delivery of the Executive’s energy strategy”. The Bill will essentially update the Regulator’s legislative framework for operations, and better reflect the importance of net zero and the implementation of the energy strategy.

The Economy Minister has also set out his intention to alter some of his Department’s financial powers, including enabling the use of Financial Transactions Capital and the power to form companies, however it is noted that these measures may instead form part of a Financial Provisions Bill to be brought forward by the Minister of Finance.

Finance

A Financial Provisions Bill will “reconcile several routine financial matters across departments”, and a Budget (No. 2) Bill was introduced via accelerated passage on 1 July 2024. Outside of ‘housekeeping’ legislation, the Minister has signalled her intention to introduce a Fiscal Council Bill to establish the NI Fiscal Council on a permanent, statutory basis. Set up in 2021 to align with New Decade, New Approach commitments, the Council will have an overarching role in bringing greater transparency and independent scrutiny to the current and future condition of Northern Ireland’s public finances, to inform public debate and policy decisions.

Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

The provision of powers to enable the Department to “transition from, substantially alter, or end the EU legacy Fruit and Vegetable Aid and EU Food Information and Promotions Schemes, as they apply to Northern Ireland,” forms the basis of an intended Agriculture Bill. Meanwhile a Dilapidation Bill will empower local councils to better tackle dilapidated and dangerous sites through enforcement powers.

Health

Alongside the already introduced and enacted Hospital Parking Charges Act (2024), which postpones the banning on charging money for parking vehicles in hospital car parks for two years, the Health Minister intends to introduce a Public Health Bill, to replace the over 50 years old Public Health Act (Northern Ireland) 1967. The Bill will legislate for better management of 21st century public health emergencies, and is a direct response to learnings from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Also on the health agenda is an Adult Protection Bill, intentions for which were first announced in 2020. Following two separate investigations into failings at Dunmurry Manor Care Home, the Bill will “introduce additional protections to underpin and strengthen the adult protection process and align this with best practice in other jurisdictions”.

Justice

Yet to be fully named, the Minister for Justice has indicated her intention to bring forward a multifaceted Justice Bill. Alongside legislative provision relating to the retention of fingerprints and DNA profiles, the Executive office address mentions provisions around child bail, remand, and custody, but gives no further detail. Similarly, it says that the Bill will include other new provisions relating to the separation of children and adults in custody, as well as “various other matters” about which is does not include details.

Infrastructure

A wide-ranging Water, Flooding and Sustainable Drainage Bill is the sole legislative intention for 2024 outlined by the Minister for Infrastructure. The Bill will be informed by a consultation launched in March 2022 by a previous minister. The consultation proposed sizeable changes to the powers if NI Water and the Department and the proposed bill is proposed to provide new and additional powers across seven areas of water, flooding and drainage legislation.

UK general election 2024:

In numbers

The numbers emanating from the general election results show that Labour has secured the lowest vote share to win a parliamentary majority, and that while nationalists won more seats than unionists, that unionism remains marginally ahead of nationalism by vote share.

General election 2024: UK (650 seats)

*Includes speaker

House of Commons seats

Vote share: General election 2024

The Labour Party’s victory brings it into government for the first time since 2010. On 33.7 per cent of the vote, Labour’s share of the vote is the smallest ever to win a majority. Labour’s majority is 174 seats. For context, in 2019, the Tories won 43.6 per cent of the vote, but only won a majority of 80 seats.

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General election 2024: Northern Ireland (18 seats)

A record six different parties have been elected to represent Northern Ireland in the House of Commons, and this is the first time Sinn Féin has won the most seats in a Westminster election. However, this is the second time Sinn Féin has topped the poll in a Westminster election, having done that in 2010. Cumulatively, there are more nationalists (nine) than unionists (eight), with one MP neutral on the constitutional question.

Seats which switched parties: Northern Ireland

Four seats switched hands in Northern Ireland, arguably the most unexpected of these was the TUV winning North Antrim, with Jim Allister becoming the constituency’s first MP not called ‘Ian Paisley’ since 1970. Jeffrey Donaldson’s exit from politics means that Gregory Campbell is now the longest-serving MP from Northern Ireland.

Constituency

Seats

Four of the five most contested seats are held by unionists, although only one of these – East Londonderry – is contested between unionists and nationalists.

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Recent reports on the public finances of a united Ireland have estimated the transitional cost in a range from €400 billion to €25 billion over the first two decades of the new state coming into existence.

In evidence presented to the Oireachtas Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, I set out why the recent Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) report which stated that the initial costs of a united Ireland would be €20 billion per annum over 20 years is wildly inaccurate, as the report contains significant errors and is based on entirely unreasonable assumptions.

The IIEA report is not a worst-case scenario; it is just wrong. There is

The fiscal position in the early years of a united Ireland

While the northern economy is weak relative to the Republic, the cost of unity will be contingent on the speed of convergence with the Republic, writes John Doyle, professor in the School of Law and Government and Vice President of Research, Dublin City University.

insufficient room here to look at every element, but a few key highlights, indicate a very different outcome is much more likely.

The IIEA report adds over €4.2 billion per annum to the cost of unity, by increasing public sector wages to the levels in the Republic but makes no allowance for the taxes (which would be overwhelmingly at the higher rate of 40 per cent), PRSI (4 per cent) and pension contributions (typically around 10 per cent) to be paid on that increase.

Correcting this error reduces the real cost of salary increases by €2.2 billion per annum. There are similar difficulties with the IIEA’s welfare and pension estimates, and it makes no allowance for those increases being paid over some agreed

period of time, as the costs of living also converge.

The IIEA report uncritically uses the published UK Government subvention figure of over £12 billion as the starting point for the fiscal balance of a united Ireland, half of which relates to debt and pensions. While the UK Government could legally cancel pensions, the question is whether it would be politically expedient to do so. No such threat was made for example during the Brexit negotiations, as regards UK officials who had worked for EU institutions, in fact a new post-Brexit agreement was signed with Ireland to maintain the cooperation on pensions and ability to move in either direction without loss of pension, which see thousands of Irish people receive UK

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pensions based on years of contributions in the UK.

The IIEA even assumes that if the UK Government abandoned such pensioners, including to military and police veterans, health workers and others, that the Irish Government would then volunteer to pay £2 billion per annum for UK state debt, for which it has no legal liability whatsoever.

There are also technical ways in which the UK allocates central UK expenditure outside of Northern Ireland to its various regions, or allocates taxes, which would reduce the transferred subvention very significantly. In the full report submitted to the Oireachtas Committee, a detailed analysis of the existing subvention shows that the opening deficit for Northern Ireland in a united Ireland, before any new policy decisions, would be just €1.5 billion, taking account of issues such as debt, pensions, defence, and tax changes.

Finally, the IIEA report excludes any analysis of economic growth during the 20 years after unity. It assumes that with the same political system, back inside the EU, and similar policy frameworks, education system and tax regime, that Northern Ireland would not economically converge with the Republic. This is a very unlikely outcome.

Why would Belfast continue to perform so much worse than counties Cork and Kerry with the same EU access, policies, education, and tax system? As a larger city, Belfast should do better and take pressure off the Dublin region. Likewise, Derry and the wider northwest should see economic benefits, with new investment and without the impact of the border.

The economy in Northern Ireland is weak. Wages are much lower than the Republic, educational outcomes are poorer, and waiting lists in the health system are much

worse. Significant additional investment is therefore needed. However, it needs to be gradual to avoid creating massive inflationary pressures.

Allowing for an increase in public expenditure in Northern Ireland, of €1 billion in year one, to increase salaries and pensions, invest in education, and improve public services, would require Ireland to borrow three-quarters of 1 per cent of GNI* to cover that combined €2.5 billion per annum deficit – a readily affordable figure.

That investment into Northern Ireland would increase each year for some time as salaries increase, as the economy could absorb it and as the cost of pensions, for example, gradually transferred to Ireland, but it would also be gradually re-couped in tax revenues, as the northern economy begins to grow and to reflect the living standards and wage levels in the Republic.

The ongoing cost of unity will be determined by the rate of economic growth in Northern Ireland, and the speed of convergence with the Republic. In the last 20 years, the central European states joining the EU all experienced growth rates of between 1 per cent and 3 per cent per annum above EU averages, allowing for clear convergence in living standards with the western states.

If the currently weak Northern Ireland economy began to converge with the Republic, with growth of 2 per cent per annum above its post Good Friday Agreement experience inside the UK, this would cover the costs of transition –including increasing public sector salaries, state pensions, and welfare payments –and end the fiscal deficit in approximately 10 years, after which the North would run a surplus.

“The ongoing cost of unity will be determined by the rate of economic growth in Northern Ireland, and the speed of convergence with the Republic.”

John Doyle, Vice President of Research, Dublin City University

What the right gets wrong on immigration TRADE UNION DESK

A mob chanting ‘send them back’ is not up for a ‘balanced discussion’, writes the ICTU’s John O’Farrell.

It has been a staple of right-wing commentary that: “We have not openly debated immigration and integration in the UK”, to cite a recent offender. In fact, since Enoch Powell made his revolting ‘rivers of blood’ speech in 1968, with its lies about a white woman in his constituency having excrement pushed through her door and harassed – a woman no journalist could ever find –we have had:

• marches across the streets of British cities;

• the rise and fall of openly fascist parties from the National Front to the BNP to Britain First;

• a series of laws passed restricting immigration;

• mainstream politicians playing footsie like Margaret Thatcher “feeling swamped”;

• a series of hard-right parties between the mainstream and the extreme right; and

• the weaponisation of migration to successfully campaign for Brexit.

We have also had the normalisation of migrants being scapegoated by national newspapers for the consequences of policies which those newspapers championed, and their impact on the availability of housing, jobs and, public services, and the wider economic policies which deindustrialised swathes of regional cities, while rebalancing the national wealth to south-east England and financial services.

Add to that the spread of unregulated social media like wildfire through the laptops and smartphones of people who are open to messages of easy blame and easier solutions, and we find ourselves facing millions of people believing that Covid was a hoax and that 5G and vaccinations are part of the same pernicious plot as ‘the Great Replacement Theory’.

Which is why the UK’s ‘debate on immigration’ has

Credit: Justin McCamphill

Credit: Mark Rowan/@travellernorthernireland

“It is entirely fine to label as racist, thugs who threaten and attack mosques or businesses based on the ethnicity of their owners.”

consisted of Suella Braverman MP chirping about an ‘invasion’ by shivering refugees in dinghies, and that the only possible ‘solution’ is a multi-billion pound exercise in performative cruelty – like deporting a few asylum seekers to Rwanda.

On top of that is the strange spectacle of some of the poshest members of the commentariat opining that it is unfair to label working class people as racist if they have

Firstly, it is entirely fine to label as racist, thugs who threaten and attack mosques or businesses based on the ethnicity of their owners.

Secondly, who is saying that these thugs are working class? As the historian David Olusoga noted: “To put the violence directed at British Muslims, Black Britons and asylum seeking down to ‘legitimate grievances’ is to fall for one of the most toxic and intentionally divisive falsehoods in the populist handbook: the myth that class and race are diametrically opposed, the assertion that non-white people have no class identity. In this distorted world view, the true working class are the “white working class”, and the difficulties they face are not a consequences of political choices that affect everyone, irrespective of ethnicity, skin colour or faith, but of ‘elites’ putting the needs of minority communities first. As if those minorities are not themselves working class.”

An additional piece of misdirection is the temptation by editors to find a balanced way of telling the story.

John O’Farrell

This leads to a ‘both sides’ approach which legitimises as equally valid a point of view that there are people who wish to live equally in a shared society and those who think that those people should cease to exist, by violence or forced exit. A mob chanting ‘send them back’ is not up for a ‘balanced discussion’.

For decades, trade unions have been in those discussions, and shop stewards are trained to peacefully resolving racial, ethnic, or sectarian disputes in working class environments, often at personal risk.

In 2017, ICTU and the CBI committed to eliminating racism and discrimination in our workplaces and developed the updated Joint Declaration for Dignity at Work and Inclusive Working Environments, an initiative fostered by the LRA’s Employment Relations Roundtable, to promote a culture:

• giving all persons an equal opportunity for employment and advancement irrespective of religious belief, political opinion, racial group, age, marital status, sexual orientation, sex, disability, and persons with or without dependants;

• encouraging all employees to develop their full potential;

• rewarding achievement;

• where the employer is working to maintain and/or ensure fair participation in its recruitment and employment thus achieving a workforce that is broadly representative of the Northern Ireland community; and

• and respecting expressions of diverse identity in the context of a harmonious and inclusive working environment.

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Political Platform

Cheryl Brownlee MLA

Cheryl Brownlee MLA was co-opted into the Assembly in 2023, replacing her late colleague David Hilditch for whom she worked. The DUP representative tells agendaNi about her goals for her constituency, her background as a firefighter, and how she aims to attract investment to East Antrim.

Outline your background and career to date

I have dedicated my professional life to public service, starting my career as a community volunteer. I earned an undergraduate degree in sociology and criminology and masters MBA from the University of Ulster and subsequently worked as political assistant for David Hilditch and as an on-call firefighter. Over the years, I have been actively involved in local politics, serving as a councillor for the East Antrim area before being co-opted as an MLA for East Antrim.

What inspired you to get into politics?

My inspiration to get into politics stems from a deep commitment to my community and a desire to address the issues that impact the daily lives of constituents here in East Antrim. Growing up in Carrickfergus, I witnessed first-hand the challenges our communities face, from economic hardships to social inequalities. This motivated me to seek a role where I could affect meaningful change and advocate for policies that would improve the quality of life for everyone.

What drew you to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)?

I was drawn to the Democratic Unionist Party because of its strong commitment to upholding the union and its focus on promoting the interests of Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom. The party’s values of community, integrity, and a proactive approach to economic development resonate with my own principles and goals. I believe that through the DUP, I can effectively contribute to creating a prosperous and secure future for East Antrim.

What are your key priorities for East Antrim?

Economic development is a huge priority of mine, attracting investment to create jobs, support local businesses and increase our tourism offering. Infrastructure improvement is a fundamental base for enhancing transportation links and digital connectivity to ensure that our area can thrive. We also need access to better healthcare, at the point of need, investing in modern healthcare facilities and services to meet the needs of our growing population, as well as dealing with mental health as a priority.

I want to ensure that all our schools are wellfunded and that there are ample opportunities for vocational training to equip our young people with the skills they need. I am a strong advocate for our SEN pupils and childcare support. I want to ensure that all children have the best possible start to life and receive the right education, at the right time, with the right support.

Who do you admire in politics or public life?

At the moment, my inspiration is Gavin Robinson MP. He puts his heart and soul into his position as MP for east Belfast, focusing on the grassroots issues that matter to you and me on the ground, as well as leading the change and delivering on major opportunities for Northern Ireland at Westminster – he also manages this with his family life, and always does this with a big smile on this face and a bit of humour.

What are your interests outside of work?

Outside of work, I have a passion for outdoor activities, particularly hiking, kayaking, sea swimming and running, and spending time with my family and friends.

Cheryl Brownlee signed the roll of membership in the Northern Ireland Assembly on 18 September 2023, she is pictured with the then Speaker, Alex Maskey, and the Clerk of the Assembly, Lesley Hogg.

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Hilary Benn MP: Northern Ireland’s newest Secretary of State

Hilary Benn MP is arguably the most high-profile appointee as Northern Ireland Secretary since Peter Mandelson in 1999. Benn is a political veteran and has mirrored comments by the new Prime Minister on the need for a “re-set” of British-Irish relations.

Keir Starmer MP made a relatively straightforward transition of power when he became British Prime Minister on 10 July 2024, with almost all shadow cabinet appointees retaining their portfolios in government.

A Leeds MP since a 1999 byelection, Benn was appointed as Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary in September 2023, marking a return to the frontline of politics seven years after he had been sacked by former party leader Jeremy Corbyn MP from the frontbench in 2016.

In a 2006 interview for The Guardian, Benn claimed that he was “not a rebel”, following on from comments he made in 1999 that he was “a Benn, but not a Bennite,” in repudiation of the left-wing views of his late father, Tony Benn, who remains an iconic figure for British socialists.

Benn’s self-characterisation, however, did not hold through during Labour’s 14 years out of power between 2010 and 2024, as he rebelled against the left-wing leadership of Corbyn and was a key player in the ultimately unsuccessful People’s Vote campaign for the UK to remain in the EU after the 2016 referendum vote to leave.

Benn was sacked by Corbyn as Shadow Foreign Secretary for calling for the socialist’s resignation as party leader in 2016, and upon his return to the backbenches of the House of Commons,

assumed chairmanship of the Brexit Select Committee.

In this committee, Benn sponsored the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019, known as the ‘Benn Act’, forcing Boris Johnson to extend the deadline for the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union in October 2019.

With Labour resoundingly beaten in the 2019 election by Johnson’s Tories, Benn accepted that his campaign for the UK to stay in the EU was over, but his interest in the impact of Brexit never waned. In September 2022, as loyalist fears played out over the ‘Irish Sea border’, Benn published a report titled How to Fix the Northern Ireland Protocol alongside the Centre for European Reform.

In the report, he emphasised the importance of avoiding border infrastructure on the island of Ireland while adhering to Brexit requirements.

The new British Government has promised a “reset” in Anglo-Irish relations, as demonstrated via Starmer’s deployment of ‘Guinness diplomacy’ during Taoiseach Simon Harris’ visit to Chequers, making Harris the first foreign visitor to the UK under Starmer’s premiership.

This visit followed a change in tone from Starmer, who, having previously described himself as a “unionist”, stated post-

election that his Government will be an “honest broker” over Northern Ireland and any future border poll.

Furthermore, in the King’s Speech, the Government announced its intention to scrap the Legacy Act, a move which has been welcomed by all the local parties and the Irish Government.

The new administration in London brings a new level of understanding of affairs in Northern Ireland, as can be observed through Keir Starmer’s history of working in Northern Ireland, the fact that Sue Gray – a former Permanent Secretary of the Department of Finance – is Downing Street Chief of Staff, and the fact that the new Northern Ireland Secretary is as highprofile as Benn.

There is no doubt that relatively competent actors are now overseeing Northern Ireland policy from London, and Labour will be keen to be interpreted by observers as successful on Northern Ireland, with the legacy of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 and St Andrews Agreement in 2007 claimed by the party as core achievements of the Tony Blair government.

Whether challenges such as legacy, local finance mechanisms, a potential new Brexit deal, and the debate on Irish reunification can be met by the new British Government, however, remains to be seen.

Environment Ireland® is Ireland’s major environmental policy and management conference. Now in its 20th year, this important event features a range of focused sessions highlighting the pressing issues facing the environment in Ireland and further afield.

2024 speakers include...

Ossian Smyth TD Minister of State with responsibility for Communications and Circular Economy

Andrew Muir MLA Minister of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

Aurel Ciobanu-Dordea Director, Circular Economy, DG Environment, European Commission

Francesca Racioppi Head of Office, World Health Organization European Centre for Environment and Health

Presented by Coillte

David McGee Advisory Partner and ESG Leader, PwC

Chris Hewitt Director of Climate Services Branch, World Meteorological Organization

Danielle Conaghan Partner and Head of the Environment and Planning Group, Arthur Cox

Geoff Dooley Head of Sustainability Services, Antaris Consulting

Anna Rose, Head of the Planning Advisory Service Local Government Association UK

Zoe Kavanagh CEO, REPAK

Venkatesh Kannan Associate Director, The Irish Centre of High-End Computing (ICHEC)

Laura Diaz Anadon Co-Vice-Chair, European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change University of Cambridge

Mark Horton All Ireland Director The Rivers Trust

Eimear Cotter Director of the Office of Evidence and Assessment Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Niall Ó Donnchú Director General National Parks and Wildlife Service

Contact Fiona McCarthy on +353 (0)1 661 3755 or email fiona.mccarthy@environmentireland.ie for further information on how to feature your organisation at the conference.

public affairs agenda

Sustaining Lough Neagh

Water quality, fringe habitats, invertebrates, topography, fish, and bird populations are being degraded to levels that have never been seen before. The complex interactions between these features, with the added pressures of climate breakdown, mean that the Lough has passed many tipping points that we barely even understand.

The unprecedented global media attention, and local political attention, have come to very little. In fact, the input of phosphorous, the key trigger for the algal blooms, has actually gotten worse.

In the last year phosphorous has increased because of further defunding of creaking sewage infrastructure and the approval of even more factory farms.

In the neoliberal model of Northern Irish economics the response of government often reinforces the very problem it claims to want to fix. For decades the economic model made Lough Neagh invisible. It was a place to dump in and a place to extract from. Its natural wealth was plundered on an industrial scale. The university research station at Traad Point (near Ballyronan, County Derry) was closed down, laws were broken (such as the Strategic Environment Assessment Directive) and 50 years of unlawful extraction from the bed of the lough was ignored.

In 2023, I said Lough Neagh was dying in plain sight. One year on, it grieves me to say that Lough Neagh, as a complex living ecosystem, is not dying; Lough Neagh is dead. Friends of the Earth’s James Orr writes.

The solutions are not that difficult. Firstly, renew the 10-year water infrastructure investment programme. Secondly, give the lough a breathing space by halting damaging activity. Thirdly, design the model of farming away from feeding the income streams of the major corporates towards regenerative agriculture and family farms.

Anyone can see that the current agricultural model is so destructive that it cannot last. The model works like this: cut down South American rainforest to grow soy; ship the soy here to feed to caged animals; allow the excrement from the animals to pollute our rivers and lakes; export the protein and the profits and finally, use public funds to subsidise this unsustainable model by giving the industry huge corporate welfare payments.

The lough itself, and many communities, are demanding transformational change because they know that it is the business-as-usual mentality that has killed Lough Neagh.

We have behaved towards Lough Neagh because of how our political economy perceives it – a resource to extract from rather than the most important jewel any country could be gifted. We have not only turned our back on Lough Neagh but for many in leadership positions, over many decades, Lough Neagh was worth more

dead than alive. Meanwhile, our inboxes get filled with crackpot techno-fixes and false solutions.

To revive Lough Neagh, we need a new vision for what we believe the lough could be. A flourishing ecosystem of abundance and health that supports thousands of sustainable jobs. A habitat of global significance recognised across the world.

This requires:

• A Citizen’s Assembly imbued with local wisdom to reverse the democratic deficit.

• A new food policy that recognises that we can easily feed people, invest in farms and restore nature.

• An independent environmental protection agency that has sufficient powers to protect and restore nature.

• A management body that cares for and sustains the lough across the whole of its catchment.

This is achievable. We have a minister with an environment remit. We can even now grasp the opportunity for community ownership and afford legal rights to the Lough Neagh itself to exist, to regenerate and to be allowed to flourish. If we sustain Lough Neagh, the lough will sustain us.