agendaNi issue 101 September/October 2020 by bmf business services

...informing Northern Ireland’s decision-makers

A next generation power system SONI’s Jo Aston Economy Minister Diane Dodds outlines plans for economic recovery

Education Minister Peter Weir discusses re-opening priorities and new Executive pledges

Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill on power sharing in a pandemic

Issue issue101 8 Aug/Sep 11 Sep/Oct 20

Economy • Energy • Education Carbon Tax • Special Reports: Health • ICT

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Northern Ireland Infrastructure Investment Conference

ONLINE CONFERENCE • Thursday 5th November 2020 agendaNi is organising the annual Infrastructure Investment Conference which will examine the key elements required to create sustainable 21st century infrastructure. Infrastructure investment is a key building block for sustainable economic growth and is a key element in the New Decade, New Approach deal. This event will bring together key stakeholders to look at the sectoral challenges and examine the overall future direction for investment.

Speakers include: Martin Spollen Chief Investment Officer Strategic Investment Board

Sara Venning CEO Northern Ireland Water

Trevor Anderson Infrastructure and Business Transformation Director Belfast Harbour

Conal Henry Chair Fibrus

Emer Murnaghan Head of Responsible Sustainable Business Graham

Chris Conway Group Chief Executive Translink

Senior representative Belfast City Council

2020 discussion topics: • Priorities for future infrastructure investment • Delivering responsible and sustainable infrastructure

Supported by

• Making Belfast a resilient city • Investing in public transport • Water infrastructure: supporting the Northern Ireland economy • Ports infrastructure: A vital part of a growing economy • Investing for our digital future: delivering connectivity

How to register: T: 028 9261 9933 ∙W: www.ni-infrastructure.agendani.com ∙E: registration@agendani.com

Contents

Matters arising

Issues

22 26

Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill on power sharing in a pandemic

Cover: SONI’s Jo Aston discusses a next generation power system

Chief Planner Angus Kerr on planning for sustainable growth

Brexit 26

104

114

Future of the Northern Ireland Protocol

Economy report 30

Economy Minister Diane Dodds outlines plans to rebuild the economy

Labour market shifts

Hosted by Round table discussion: Innovation and economic recovery

Implementing a Skills Strategy

NERI’s Paul Mac Flynn on devolving fiscal policy

Energy report

Sponsored by

Sponsorship opportunities There are several opportunities available for interested organisations to become involved with this conference as a sponsor. This provides an excellent opportunity for companies to showcase their expertise and raise their profile to a targeted audience. For further information please contact us on 028 9261 9933 or email jillian.wallace@agendani.com.

www.nienvironment.agendani.com

brexit

Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaking with the deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill and First Minister Arlene Foster on a recent visit to Belfast.

Brexit: Hard border a reality once more As the UK seeks to wriggle out of the Withdrawal Agreement it signed with the EU in October 2019, EU leaders have warned that the future trading relationship is in jeopardy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sternly stated that the 2019 Withdrawal Agreement, which included the Protocol on Northern Ireland, was “an obligation under international law and prerequisite for any future partnership”. The President was responding to revelations in the Financial Times that the UK was preparing to side-step key obligations in the Agreement through the publication of an Internal Market Bill. The EU appear to have been blindsided by the UK Government’s bold move and have mobilised quickly to stress the threat of

agenda brexit

the ongoing trade negotiations being derailed. The Protocol, which committed to Northern Ireland continuing to follow EU rules on customs, VAT, state aid and goods standards, appeared to solve the potential need for a hard border in Ireland, however, if the deal is undermined, it’s not unthinkable that one would be required to protect the EU’s single market.

The UK Government has targeted two specific areas, included in the revised Protocol on Northern Ireland, which it has objections against. The first is that the Protocol outlines that EU law on state aid will apply to the UK in relation to the goods trade in Northern Ireland, meaning that the UK must notify Brussels of any state aid decisions.

The EU’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier warned that “everything that has been signed in the past must be respected; it is what underpins confidence going forward”.

The second is the requirement for Northern Ireland businesses to complete export summary declarations when sending goods to Great Britain. On both of these, Brexiteers argue that the reclaimed

brexit

sovereignty promised by Brexit will not be realised. In response, the UK is expected to include much more narrowly defined clauses on the obligation to notify on state aid and ensure Northern Ireland’s businesses will not be required to file export summary declarations when sending goods to Great Britain. The UK’s Chief Negotiator, David Frost, gave an indication of the mindset of the UK’s team recently when he stated that the UK would not become a “client state” of the EU by agreeing to “level playing field” clauses. The UK’s move is set to make any progress on the latest round of talks, which started on 8 September, unlikely. The talks follow an unfruitful negotiation period in mid-August, which were described as a “backward” step in the hopes of having a deal in place by 2020. Following those talks, Barnier spoke of his disappointment and surprise at the lack of progress during discussions believing that the UK failed to bring forward solutions on areas of key interest to Europe. “Too often this week it felt as if we were going backwards more than forwards,” said Barnier following the negotiations. “I simply do not understand why we are wasting valuable time.” Barnier stressed that at this stage, an agreement between the UK and the EU seems “unlikely”. The August negotiations included two of the recognised areas of greatest contention, namely, post-Brexit competition and fishing rights. Also included were law enforcement and judicial co-operation, trade in goods and services, transport and the UK's future participation in EU programmes. Both sides have previously stated their willingness to have a deal completed before October, allowing time for ratification prior to the ending of the transition period on 31 December. An extension of the transition period looked plausible following the outbreak of the pandemic but an EU-UK Joint Committee on implementing the Withdrawal Agreement was told in June that the UK will not seek an extension of the transition,

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier speaking at Queen’s University Belfast.

“It would represent a shocking act of bad faith that would critically undermine the Good Friday Agreement political framework and peace process and the UK's ability to secure other crucial deals to protect the Northern Ireland economy.” despite many aspects of implementation of measures within the Withdrawal Act still to be agreed, including the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland.

be agreed before any further substantive work can be done in any other area of the negotiation, including on legal texts,” Frost outlined.

The UK has already stated that it will not be ready to implement full post-border controls on goods entering from the EU until July 2021, instead setting out plans for a new three stage customs regime, starting 1 January 2021.

“This makes it unnecessarily difficult to make progress. There are other significant areas which remain to be resolved and, even where there is a broad understanding between negotiators, there is a lot of detail to work through. Time is short for both sides.”

Frost, the UK’s Chief Negotiator, accused the EU of being “unnecessarily difficult” and the UK has taken issue with the EU’s persistence that an agreement on fishing and state aid must be reached prior to any engagement on other areas. “The EU is still insisting not only that we must accept continuity with EU state aid and fisheries policy, but also that this must

Stand off The evident stand off between the EU and the UK prior to September’s talks has led some to believe that the UK’s Internal Market Bill is an effort to scare the EU into granting greater concessions to the UK requests.

agenda brexit

brexit

Withdrawal Agreement. Senior MP Sammy Wilson and the party’s Brexit spokesperson recently described the Protocol as a “betrayal of this part of the United Kingdom” and said that his party did not accept the deal. With many in the DUP expected to support the UK’s shift in position, pending the release of the terms of any Bill put forward, Foster will be potentially embarrassed by the timing of her statement.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin meeting with Prime Minister Boris Johnson at Hillsborough Castle and Gardens.

However, others are of the belief that Prime Minister Johnson, who had to woo hard line Brexiteers in his party to support the Withdrawal Agreement Bill’s passage through Parliament at the beginning of this year, has swung back to believing that the UK can prosper in a no deal scenario. Johnson may have already indicated as much recently when he stated that a deal had to be done by the time of the European Council on 15 October, otherwise “we should both accept that and move on”. Three scenarios appear plausible. Firstly, that the threat to tear up the Withdrawal Agreement is in fact a sign that the UK are desperate for a deal, hoping that pressure will be applied to Barnier to soften on the UK’s demands on state aid and fishing. Secondly, that the UK has decided to go the no deal route but wants Brussels, rather than Downing Street, to pull the plug. Thirdly, that the Government is placating hard Brexiteers following poor handling of the health and economic crises. Worth noting though is the fact that Barnier, in light of the revelations, did not cancel his visit to the UK for talks. Downing Street has denied that it is set to renege on the agreement made with the EU last year but has admitted that it is considering “fall back options” should a trade agreement not be reached and described the Internal Market Bill as a standby plan. Johnson told French President Emmanuel

agenda brexit

Macron that the changes were “limited” and technical, and that he stood fully behind the commitments made last year. That plan would reportedly give UK ministers powers to determine themselves whether Brussels needed to be notified of state aid decisions. Such an approach poses a range of challenges for the UK. Firstly, in the middle of a deep economic recession, taking a leap in to the dark by bittering future relations with the EU and hoping for trade deals with other potential partners will not be viewed lightly, especially if it’s seen to be economically detrimental. Secondly, the UK’s actions could undermine any hopes of success in those future deals with negotiators unlikely to look favourably on the overwriting of a ratified international deal.

Northern Ireland The re-emergence of a potential hard border on the island of Ireland comes just weeks after the DUP First Minister, whose party helped block a similar looking proposal put forward by former Prime Minister Theresa May in the House of Commons, said that she had to recognise that a border in the Irish Sea “is the reality now”. Foster, while restating her opposition to the Protocol, said that her role was now to mitigate against the damage to the union. The statement came as a shock, especially to some in her own party, who maintain their opposition to the

Ulster Unionist Party Leader Steve Aiken has also welcomed the opportunity to reconsider elements of the protocol on state aid rules and market access, however, the majority of Northern Ireland’s political parties have warned the UK Government not to renege on the Brexit deal. The leaders of four pro-EU Stormont parties, namely the Greens, Sinn Féin, the SDLP and the Alliance Party penned a joint letter to the UK Government which stated that while the protocol was “imperfect”, it guarded against a hard border on the island of Ireland. The letter urged the Government to “honour its commitments” to ensure the Protocol was implemented “rigorously”. “The economic and political impact on the island of Ireland, on the UK and above all on the people whom we represent would be devastating, and long-lasting,” it read. “It would represent a shocking act of bad faith that would critically undermine the Good Friday Agreement political framework and peace process and the UK's ability to secure other crucial deals to protect the Northern Ireland economy.” Separately, the deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said the move would be a “treacherous betrayal”, while the SDLP Leader Colum Eastwood believes it would threaten peace. Justice Minister and Alliance Leader Naomi Long said it would make any country think twice about doing deals with the UK. The news was also met with pessimism south of the border where Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney, fresh from opting not to put his name forward to replace Phil Hogan as EU Trade Commissioner, branded the UK’s approach as “unwise”.

Economy report

economy report

Diane Dodds: Economic recovery Minister for the Economy Diane Dodds speaks to David Whelan about efforts to rebuild the economy in Northern Ireland. As Northern Ireland seeks to recover from the aftermath of the economic impact of lockdown measures, the Minister for the Economy recognises the important role of policy in delivering a long-term roadmap for growth. Highlighting the “monumental change” which has occurred in the eight months since taking up her post, Dodds frames the context in which ambitions for economic growth are being created as much changed but believes the fundamental principles remain largely the same. “Covid has been unprecedented and we have taken action that we never thought we could take, with a speed that we didn’t know was possible. My department has given out close to one 30

third of a billion pounds in grants to help sustain businesses in very difficult circumstances. But has it really changed the overall goals for the economy? I would suggest that those overall goals remain relatively similar,” says Dodds. In January, the New Decade, New Approach agreement outlined a series of ambitions to be pursued by the newly formed Executive, all of which were expected to underpin an upturn in Northern Ireland’s economic fortunes, including the recognised need for a long-term economic strategy and a future skills strategy. By March, the scale of the measures that would be required to reduce the spread of the virus became evident.

Discussing the significance of these measures on the economic outlook, Dodds says: “Covid has been an unprecedented disruption to our economic life and indeed, for many, our economic wellbeing. Lockdown, although crucial for public health, has caused severe economic disruption and as highlighted by economists, each month was akin to a major recession in itself.” Although many of the economic impacts of the pandemic are still to be realised, initial indicators of the scale of the recession lie in the form of a spike in unemployment, depressed consumer spending and sector-specific downturns, including, but not limited to, tourism and hospitality.

economy report

Ellvena Graham, Chair of the Economic Advisory Group, and Economy Minister Diane Dodds at Parliament Buildings.

However, Dodds is keen to highlight that not all the economic impacts of the pandemic have been negative, outlining the “remarkable resilience” of the digital sector of Northern Ireland’s economy which has seen it continue to trade strongly. “Even in the depths and darkest days of lockdown, we were announcing job creation in the sector,” she states, pointing out that Northern Ireland has carved out niche areas, such as cyber security, in which it is a world leader. It’s on these strengths that she advocates a move to “reopen, rebuild and reboot”. Quizzed on whether she believes the right balance has been struck between managing the public health risk and the risks posed to Northern Ireland’s economic future, Dodds says: “These are challenging times and there isn’t a manuscript for dealing with them. Never before have we taken such drastic action in relation to our own economy. “We recognise that first and foremost we must keep people safe. That includes the general public, the customer and those people working to deliver services. I have reiterated many times that employers have a duty to ensure their workforce is operating in a safe environment but at the same time we have to give confidence that it’s safe to go out and about and to do things in an ordinary way.”

“Covid has been an unprecedented disruption to our economic life and indeed, for many, our economic wellbeing. Lockdown, although crucial for public health, has caused severe economic disruption and as highlighted by economists, each month was akin to a major recession in itself.” Recently the Department for the Economy (DfE) published its mediumterm recovery plan in the shape of the ‘Rebuilding a Stronger Economy’ document, which Dodds says identifies opportunities to “regrow and reorientate” in sectors of the economy where the Department envisages “new and exciting” opportunities. “In our recovery plan we said that we want to continue to support those areas of the economy that are fundamental and important to us,” she says. “Those are the likes of tourism, hospitality, agrifood and general manufacturing but

there are also opportunities to take that world-leading expertise that is here and to go out and grab new things for Northern Ireland.” Dodds points to the likes of cyber security, fintech, legaltech and advanced manufacturing as examples of areas where these opportunities lie. Additionally, she points to the opportunity in moves towards a greener economy, and in particular how the future role of hydrogen can help to not only reduce carbon emissions but also create jobs and, ultimately, prosperity for people in Northern Ireland. 4 31

economy report Economy Minister Diane Dodds visiting the Southern Regional College’s Lurgan campus to meet staff who are making PPE for health workers.

However, in looking to the future, the Minister is also aware of the need to address the immediate pressures on the labour market. Recent statistics show a steep rise in unemployment and the figure is expected to elevate again significantly once the UK Government’s Job Retention Scheme (JRS) comes to an end. Of those set to be most affected, both in terms of their propensity for precarious work or work in those sectors hardest hit by the pandemic and those set to leave education to join the workforce, are young people. The Minister recently brought forward a £17.2 million apprenticeship recovery package plan. Again, she emphasises the importance of a digital focus and believes this area is best placed to serve the labour market demand of the future. To this end, she suggests that plans to develop apprenticeships and training will also extend beyond young people to address the more widespread need for re-skilling. Additionally, she highlights recent collaborations between her department and that of the Department of Education to ensure that Northern Ireland’s “digital spine” can be developed by introducing skills in early education.

“I think there are huge opportunities for us to respond in the short term but also to have those medium- and long-term goals of improving digital and skill infrastructure in Northern Ireland,” she says.

want to look at the skills imbalances and to work across departments to ensure that we are upskilling, reskilling and giving career pathways and ultimately jobs and prosperity to all of our people in Northern Ireland.”

Dodds suggests that the digital focus will be a feature of a new Skills Strategy for Northern Ireland currently being developed by her Department and this will be supported by investment in digital infrastructure, such as that of Project Stratum, the scheme designed to improve connectivity for those unable to access broadband services of 30 Mbps or greater across Northern Ireland, which she says she is determined to see rolled out during the current mandate of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

One of the challenges facing a future Skills Strategy for Northern Ireland and ambitions to reduce the skills gap between Northern Ireland and its UK counterparts is access to migrant labour. Workers from the EU have been critical to improvements in Northern Ireland’s labour market in the last decade, particularly in the high employment but low-paid sectors such as tourism, hospitality, agri-food and manufacturing.

“I think it’s important, not just to get a community in Northern Ireland that is highly skilled and has a good range of digital skills but also to help address the regional imbalances in our economy. Project Stratum has a target area which is 97 per cent rural, so it’s really important that we get to task with that.”

Skills Addressing the ambitions of a future Skills Strategy, Dodds says: “We really

In January 2021, the end of the UK’s transition period with the EU will mean that EU workers will join the visa system previously used for non-EU migrants. The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), the independent body set up to advise government, recently published recommendations to lower the wage threshold for those seeking to work in the UK but did not recommend a regional variation lobbied for by many in Northern Ireland. The wage threshold set of £25,600 (£20,480 if the role is included on the UK’s shortage occupation list) is still above the median pay for EU26 workers in

Northern Ireland of £18,000. The make-up of the shortage occupation list is not devolved and Dodds has been forced to lobby for recognition of Northern Ireland’s unique circumstances.

“We have done work and given evidence on our own priority agenda for skills in Northern Ireland and I think that is still worth working at. There are things in it that we need to improve from a Northern Ireland point of view and those are not new.” However, with the restrictions set to come into play in January 2021, time for influencing the Government’s decision is running short. “It’s my job to keep making the point and that is something that I will continue to do,” the Minister states. The potential to move matters relating to Northern Ireland up the UK Government’s priority list has been heightened, Dodds believes, because of the increased levels of contact since the pandemic outbreak. Highlighting increased communications with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and with colleagues in the governments of all four devolved nations, Dodds says that digital technologies have surpassed expectations of how connected the governments can be. “Obviously the national Government make national decisions, but we have plenty of opportunity to feed into those decisions.”

Funding Critical to ambitions to recover and grow Northern Ireland’s economy will be the levels of finance available to support businesses and the labour market, while also supporting the rollout of the Department’s future plans. Dodds recognises the requirement for

the Executive to financially support long-term commitments, such as rebalancing the skills agenda, which she says has been historically underfunded in Northern Ireland. On the more immediate supports needed, she is quick to point out the scale of finance which has already been allocated in relation to tackling Covid-19. “Let’s be absolutely honest, whatever your political viewpoint or whatever you think about the constitutional question, the interventions that the national Government have used here in Northern Ireland have been unprecedented. “The Job Retention Scheme and the Self-Employment Scheme are imperfect, but they are massive interventions in the economy. Between those two schemes almost 300,000 people working in Northern Ireland have had their wages subsidised by Her Majesty’s Government. “Those economic interventions are unprecedented and therefore, access to finance has been unprecedented. We will continue, along with Executive colleagues, to work to see where we can continue to support businesses in Northern Ireland and to support jobs.”

Energy One of the advantages of the breadth of the Department for the Economy’s portfolio is its reach to responsibility for energy. With global recognition of the opportunity to install efforts to tackle climate change at the heart of efforts for economic recovery, Dodds signifies a similar approach for Northern Ireland. “We have made it very clear in our short- and medium-term plan for the economy that the green economy is

economy report

“I am one of the people who have lobbied long and hard for the reduction of the salary limit around the MAC report,” she states. “That remains my goal because obviously our economy and those baselines are very different to the south of England. I make that point to the Prime Minister over and over again. If he is interested in levelling up the different regions of the UK, then he has to be interested in making sure that we have access to the skills that we need to make our economy work.

“We have huge difficulties. I have never sugar-coated the difficulties the Northern Ireland economy faces but I am hugely inspired by the way people have responded to Covid and the resilience of our economy.” very important to recovery. Northern Ireland’s achievements to date, 47 per cent of electricity generated from renewables, is pretty remarkable. Now, is there much more to be done? Of course there is, and that’s where we will need to continue to work to make sure that we are continuing on that pathway. “By the end of this Assembly mandate I want to have an Energy Strategy for Northern Ireland that plots the course for the future. It’s important and embedded at the heart of that will be that green recovery, helping not only with our emissions reduction but also providing us with jobs and prosperity.” Concluding, Dodds is optimistic that a long-term economic strategy being developed by the Department, and assisted by advice from the newly reformed Economic Advisory Group, will help those sectors in Northern Ireland already considered world class to “go out and grab more for the Northern Ireland economy”. However, she is also aware of the scale of the challenge. “We have huge difficulties. I have never sugar-coated the difficulties the Northern Ireland economy faces but I am hugely inspired by the way people have responded to Covid and the resilience of our economy. “Next year is Northern Ireland’s centenary year. One hundred years ago, we led the way in ship making, rope works and linen manufacture. In the next 100 years we need to grab the economy of the future and those things that will drive the economy.”

economy report

Recession and recovery Predicted economic recession is beginning to formulate in official data, however, the extent and lasting impacts of the recession are still not clear. In August, the UK officially entered recession for the first time in 11 years and recognised its biggest slump on record between April and June. A 20.4 per cent shrinking of the economy compared to the first three months of the year contained the first two consecutive quarters of economic decline since 2009 and saw the UK recognised as suffering one of the deepest recessions across Europe. Monthly GDP rose by 8.7 per cent during June 2020 but the profoundness of the recession was recognised in that even after this growth, levels were still 17.2 per cent below February 2020 levels. The far-reaching extent of the

pandemic’s impact on global economies was emphasised in early September when Australia, the only major economy to avoid a recession during the 2008 financial crisis, recognised a 7 per cent shrinkage of GDP between April to June, its first economic recession in almost 30 years. Economists, having learnt lessons from 2008, recognise that the backward looking data collected on GDP often masks the current economic climate, meaning that economic recession is often well underway by the time two consecutive quarters of decline are recorded. However, unlike the financial crisis, economic recession has been far more widely predicted given the extent of the

lockdown restrictions imposed across most sectors. Many had hoped that the forced nature of economic freeze would make for a greater level of rebound once restrictions were lifted. While it has been the case that the UK’s economic activity has improved over the summer months, narrowing the gap between the UK and of its neighbouring European countries, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned in early September that the UK’s economic outlook was “about to get tougher”, with Chancellor Rishi Sunak admitting tax rises would be required to pay for the economic chaos wrought by coronavirus. Hopes for a quick rebound, although highly unlikely to meet pre-pandemic

Retail sales were up 3.6 per cent in July from June, higher than the same month the previous year and for the first two weeks of August consumer spending was around 7 per cent higher than during the same period in 2019. However, also recognisable is that there are question marks over the sustainability of this spending given that the UK imposed restrictions longer than many other economies. Also to be factored in is the level of government supports which are set to come to an end. The ending of the furlough scheme is a prime example, when a spike in the unemployment rate is unquestionable once employers no longer have government backing. Additionally, the

“A forecast by the City of London economists predicts a 14.3 per cent increase in the third quarter of 2020, reversing over half of the drop in output in the three months to June.” Government’s eat out to help out scheme, recognised as a success, will have bolstered economic recovery figures but spending patterns are unlikely to remain the same now that the scheme has ended.

economy report

levels for many years, were bolstered in August by a stark rise in consumer spending across the UK, while still remaining down across the year. A forecast by the City of London economists predicts a 14.3 per cent increase in the third quarter of 2020, reversing over half of the drop in output in the three months to June.

At the same time, uneven growth, underpinned by the failure of a large percentage of office workers to return to their offices, is expected to continue for the foreseeable future and existing weaknesses, such as business investment uncertainty caused by Brexit are set to be exacerbated, coupled with the large rise in unemployment.

The return of schools however, a significant contributor to economic output, may provide an economic boost in future data. Even a record-breaking third quarter will not be enough to bridge the deficit driven by the pandemic. Pent up demand in some growth sectors is expected to subside.

Northern Ireland Historically speaking, contraction of the Northern Ireland economy tends to be greater than that of the UK average.

April-June 2020 Economic Inactivity – 26.4%

Unemployment – 2.5%

Employment – 71.7%

14.0

32.0

78.0

12.0

30.0

76.0

10.0

28.0

8.0 6.0

3.9

4.0 2.0

2.5

NI NI

26.4

72.0

24.0

70.0

20.0

71.7

68.0

22.0 UK UK

20.4

18.0

0.0

74.0

26.0

76.4

Quarterly Change

INI 0.1pps1

UK 0.0pps

NI 0.6pps

UK 0.2pps

Annual Change

NI - 0.6pps

UK 0.0pps

NI 0.9pps

UK -0.4pps

66.0

64.0

NI -0.7pps

NI -0.4pps

IIUK

-0.2pps

IIUK

0.3pps

pps1 = percentage points Labour Force Survey, seasonally adjusted and subject to future revisions. Data published – 11th August 2020

Monthly Labour Market Report published on 11th August 2020 Page 7

UK GDP fell by a cumulative 22.1% in the first half of 2020, more than double the fall seen in the United States over this period

economy report

Cumulative GDP growth

Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2020

0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25

France

United Kingdom

France

Italy

Germany

United States

Source: ONS

“The decreases in Northern Ireland were larger than the UK averages both over the quarter (2.8 per cent in Northern Ireland compared to 2.2 per cent UK average) and over the year (3.2 per cent in Northern Ireland compared to a 1.7 per cent UK average).” Also evidenced by the last recession, is Northern Ireland’s slowness in recovery when compared to Great Britain or Ireland. Danske Bank recently predicted an 11 per cent shrinkage of Northern Ireland’s economy due to the impact of Covid and coupled with estimates that Northern Ireland took seven years to recover lost GVA from the last recession, it’s unlikely that Northern Ireland can expect the same level of economic bounce back being hoped for in the rest of the UK. The challenges facing Northern Ireland’s economy are numerous but not least is a recognised productivity gap compared to other regions. As a low productivity economy, Northern Ireland relies heavily on the likes of retail and hospitality as large employment sectors, many of which have been hit hardest by the pandemic.

Again, the backward looking nature of economic analysis means that the full extent of the economic decline being experienced in Northern Ireland will not be fully realised until later in the year. However, a measure of how extreme the decline will be can be partially viewed through the lens of trends in the labour market, including the levels of those economically active and rising levels of unemployment. The most recent statistics by the Northern Ireland Employment and Research Agency (NISRA), released in July, only cover the first quarter of 2020 to March, meaning the figures only reflect a few weeks of economic restrictions imposed as a means to tackle the virus. The figures show that economic output decreased by almost 3 per cent from the last three months of 2019 and this represented a 3.2 per cent decrease in

real terms over the year from the same period in 2019. The decrease was driven by drastic slowdowns in the services, productions and constructions sectors. The decreases in Northern Ireland were larger than the UK averages both over the quarter (2.8 per cent in Northern Ireland compared to 2.2 per cent UK average) and over the year (3.2 per cent in Northern Ireland compared to a 1.7 per cent UK average). Probably more telling but still limited in its data range to assess the full impact of the economic impact of the pandemic is the doubling of Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate from March to July. Statistics show that the claimant count rose from 29,000 to 62,800. Over 2,000 redundancies were proposed in July and the first two weeks of August, meaning that the 8,755 redundancies proposed over the year from August 2019 to 31 July 2020 was the highest on record. That figure has already increased, although this has not yet shown on official figures. From August, employers have had to make financial contributions to the Government’s furlough scheme and this has resulted in a high proportion of jobs, and businesses, being declared as unsustainable. It’s estimated that at the end of August, 330,000 were receiving some sort of income support from London.

UK GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020

100 95 90 85

economy report

Index: (2019 Q4=100)

105

80 75

20 08 20 Q1 08 20 Q3 09 20 Q1 09 20 Q3 10 20 Q1 10 20 Q3 11 20 Q1 11 20 Q3 12 20 Q1 12 20 Q3 13 20 Q1 13 20 Q3 14 20 Q1 14 20 Q3 15 20 Q1 15 20 Q3 16 20 Q1 16 20 Q3 17 20 Q1 17 20 Q3 18 20 Q1 18 20 Q3 19 20 Q1 19 20 Q3 20 Q 1

Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP first quarterly estimate

The redundancy figure is set to spike again when the furlough scheme and self-employment support scheme come to an end. The largest challenge facing Northern Ireland’s economic growth ambitions is that a rise in redundancies is set to be coupled with a less than buoyant job market. This was partially indicated by a 52 per cent decrease in the number of job vacancies notified between April and June 2020 compared to January and March.

There were 7,911 vacancies notified

seeking or available to work) increased

during April-June 2020, a decrease of

over the year to 26.4 per cent,

8,494 (52 per cent) from January-

compared to a UK rate of 20.4 per cent.

March. This includes full-time, part-time and casual vacancies. Three quarters of vacancies were full-time.

The trend of rising unemployment and job losses is expected to continue until 2022, at the earliest. In late August the

Worryingly, Northern Ireland’s higher

Department for the Economy said that a

than average economic inactivity rate

“conservative estimate” was for more

(the proportion of people aged from 16

than 100,000 unemployment claimants

to 64 who were not working and not

by the end of 2020.

Confirmed and proposed redundancies — Monthly totals, July 2015 to July 2020 2,500 Proposed Confirmed

2,000 1,904

1,500

Feb-18 Jun-18 792 852

Apr-19 May-19 996 582

1,000 610

500

0 l-2 Ju

20 bFe

9 r-1 Ap

8 N

-1

8 -1 Ju n

n18

-1 Au g

-1 7 M ar

ct -1 O

-1

5 M

-1

5 Ju l-1

Source: NISRA

economy report

Newry, Mourne and Down District Council: Economic development and investment in post Covid-19 recovery

Backed by an ambitious economic blueprint for growth, Newry, Mourne and Down District Council has a real appetite to be a major economic player and a beacon for one of the fastest-growing local economies in Northern Ireland. With an estimated population of 180,012, a coastline of approximately 150km, and encompassing an area of 1,6342km, Newry, Mourne and Down District Council’s strategic location provides an opportunity for business development, local and international investment and promotion of crossborder initiatives, as well as establishing the district as a premier tourism destination. However, the district has not been untouched by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Council is keen to put in place plans to deal with the economic fallout. Like the rest of Northern Ireland, the future scenario for the economy remains highly uncertain, with forecasters not expecting economic output to recover to 2019 levels until 2022, at the earliest. Despite this the Council is clear on its mission, on what it wants to achieve, and how it will deliver. 38

The Council is already working hard to facilitate a thriving business community in key growth sectors to deliver transformative regeneration plans. Core to the achievement of this, is collaboration and partnership working with council’s key stakeholders and agencies.

Pro-business Through the new Economic Development, Regeneration and Investment Strategy, the Council is actively working to attract investment, stimulate growth, support its vitallyimportant SMEs, improve access to skills and increase employment opportunities. A key objective of this strategy is to ensure that the Council leads the way in supporting businesses and residents, through its range of business support programmes and the exploitation of

opportunities that digitalisation will bring in areas such as Big Data, Emerging Technologies, Artificial Intelligence and the Internet of Things. Aligned and complementary to a need for advice, guidance and support among its business community, Newry, Mourne and Down District Council has a range of business support programmes focusing strongly on providing opportunities for local businesses to fulfil their potential. In direct response to Covid-19, all programmes are providing virtual support including starting, sustaining and growing a business, building a digital business, winning business from ongoing procurement opportunities — and of course planning for recovery. The priority is helping businesses to survive the current situation, but not losing sight of the need to prepare for growth mode again once we’re out the other side of this pandemic.

To deliver the skills and people to power growth, the Council is proud to have two major education campuses in the Southern Regional College (SRC) and the Southern Eastern Regional College (SERC) with both campuses providing world class learning facilities and technology which capitalises on the potential and ambition of home-grown talent.

As a direct response, Newry, Mourne and Down District Council lead the Full Fibre Northern Ireland (FFNI) consortium of 10 rural councils across Northern Ireland, which has as its main objective to establish across Northern Ireland, a Gigabit speed â&#x20AC;&#x153;full fibreâ&#x20AC;? communications network and state of the art digital infrastructure. The consortium will be a critical enabler to the achievement of this priority across the District.

Belfast region city deal

Investment Building prosperity by developing and investing in regeneration and infrastructure which connects its businesses and its people to markets and employment opportunities is a strategic priority for the Council. The Council recognises the importance of partnerships, working with both the public and private sectors. Future strategic infrastructure projects involve such partnerships, including the extensive transformation at Warrenpoint Municipal Park, Castlewellan Forest Park, regeneration of Derrymore Demesne, Bessbrook and the redevelopment of the former police station on Irish Street, Downpatrick. There are many more projects in the pipeline, including multi-million-pound environmental improvement schemes across the district, and strategic regeneration plans for both Newry City and Downpatrick town centre, supported through the Department for Communities. Behind the Council's regeneration plans is a comprehensive suite of master plans and village plans, informed through community consultation and buy-in, and which set the direction for regeneration investment across the District. Through initiatives such as the Rural Development programme, and the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund, funded through DAERA, the Council have been instrumental in delivery of revitalisation support to rural businesses and communities.

The economic development, regeneration and investment vision of the Council is further expanded through the Belfast Region City Deal, which has at its core focus the progression of investment that stimulates inclusive economic growth through investment in infrastructure, regeneration, tourism, digital technologies, skills and employability. Given the potential impact of Brexit and in particular on border council areas such as Newry, Mourne and Down, initiatives that position the district as a key investment location are critical. The Council is progressing a number of strategic projects as part of the City Deal, including local infrastructure projects: Newry City Centre regeneration, the Newcastle Gateway to the Mourne tourism initiative, and delivery of the Southern Relief Road which will open up South Down, securing Warrenpoint Harbour as a key transport link. Key to supporting these initiatives are investments in a City Centre located innovation hub, and alignment of skills and employability to the needs and demands of the local business base.

A hub for tourists In a prime, easy-to-reach location, Newry, Mourne and Down District Council, has an unrivalled tourism offering and is driven to maximise its potential. Spanning both parts of County Down and County Armagh, the area is renowned for its scenic beauty and the local authority boasts multiple unique assets. The economic and tourism potential is enormous with Newry City strategically placed on the A1/M1 Belfast to Dublin corridor, and Downpatrick in close proximity to Belfast. The District has three areas of outstanding natural beauty, located in Strangford Lough and Lecale, Ring of Gullion and the Mourne Mountains, complemented by numerous Blue Flag beaches, and an unrivalled link to St Patrick.

The region is packed with bustling historic towns and charming villages, numerous forests and parklands. Bounded on the East by Strangford Lough and Carlingford Lough, and on the West by Slieve Gullion and Slieve Croob, with the majestic and picturesque Mountains of Mourne at our centre. Right throughout the region, from Newry to Downpatrick, Warrenpoint, Newcastle, Ballynahinch, Slieve Gullion to Saintfield and beyond, locals and visitors alike can enjoy a variety of cultural, historical, family-friendly and sporting activities.

economy report

To achieve this goal, the Council recognises the need to create ultramodern, future-proofed digital infrastructure. The Council are keen to ensure that businesses and residents across the district have access to the right technologies that will transform how we all communicate, work, carry out business, spend our leisure-time and go about our everyday lives.

Ambitious Newry, Mourne and Down District Council area is a unique tapestry of contrasts: ancient, modern, urban, rural, industrial, agricultural, waterways, road and railways â&#x20AC;&#x201C; which sets it apart from anywhere else in Northern Ireland. Critical to this success, is the strengthening and development of new and existing local and strategic alliances, as well as community planning partners and private sector partners. The area will continue to have its challenges, not least the impending Brexit withdrawal and the economic fallout as a result of Covid-19, with its impact on residents and businesses across the district. Newry, Mourne and Down District Council are ambitious and its soon to be launched, new Economic Development Regeneration and Investment Strategy, tasks it with delivering a broad range of interventions to maximise the potential of the local economy. By continuing to work collaboratively, and through hard work and dedication, the Council will continue to make significant progress on the road to success.

To find out more, contact: Newry, Mourne and Down District Council, Enterprise Development Team. T: 0330 137 4000 E: business@nmandd.org W: www.newrymournedown.org/business

economy report

Major labour market shifts

Efforts to bring Northern Ireland’s unemployment rate to a record low are set to be drastically undermined by the economic fallout of Covid-19 as early indications show a doubling of unemployment and spike in proposed redundancies. In April, the announcement of Northern Ireland’s unemployment figure of 2.5 per cent, a record low for the region, was cautiously welcomed as economists and businesses recognised that the figures failed to reflect the extent of the economic damage being done by the pandemic. Northern Ireland’s improved unemployment rate and economic inactivity figures, while often cited by politicians, have long been recognised by economists as lacking the ability to paint a holistic picture of the real state of the region’s labour market. Most notably, falling levels of unemployment fail to reflect a well-recognised

productivity gap in Northern Ireland. The region is a laggard in productivity when compared to the rest of the UK, which is itself a laggard compared to many of its European counterparts. The strength of Northern Ireland’s Labour Forces Survey lies not in its ability to reflect the status quo, as evidenced by the fact that it failed to offer an indication of the severity of the 2008 financial crisis until the recession was well underway, but that its backward-looking nature offers an opportunity to assess the shape of the labour market as the pandemic began. In brief, prior to the pandemic record levels of unemployment and improved

economic activity rates represented a fairly stable position, however, failure of wage recovery from 2008, significantly below UK levels, and an increase in more precarious forms of employment were noticeable weaknesses as measures were taken to contain the virus. August’s Labour Market Report by NISRA presented a more indicative outlook on how the labour market will be shaped by the measures introduced to contain the virus and the efforts for recovery. However, it is widely understood that the true impact will not be recognised for some time, largely because of the UK Government’s Job

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (16+), Apr–Jun 2005 to Apr–Jun 2020 12.0

Rate (%)

10.0 NI UK 8.0

6.0

economy report

4.0

3.9%

2.5%

2.0

pr -J u

n 20 05 pr -J un 20 A 06 pr -J un 20 A 07 pr -J un 20 A 08 pr -J un 20 A 09 pr -J un 20 A 10 pr -J un 20 A 11 pr -J un 20 A 12 pr -J un 20 A 13 pr -J un 20 A 14 pr -J un 20 A 15 pr -J un 20 A 16 pr -J un 20 A 17 pr -J un 20 A 18 pr -J un 20 A 19 pr -J un 20 20

0.0

Retention Scheme (JRS).

further spike in unemployment levels.

The scheme was designed to prevent large scale redundancies during the economic slowdown and it’s estimated that over a quarter of a million workers were placed on furlough in Northern Ireland. However, with the scheme set to end in late October, it has also been recognised that many businesses will reduce staff once government supports stop and some others will be unable to return as viable businesses. This combination will ultimately lead to a

Already Northern Ireland’s claimant count is over 62,000 people, double what it was in March; these are levels that were last realised in 2012 and 2013. One slight anomaly in the statistics is that despite this doubling of the claimant count since March, the number of claimants actually fell over the month to June by 1,200. This can largely be explained by the introduction of further support measures by those workers, including some self-employed

workers, not originally covered by the early government supports. The number of people on the Northern Ireland claimant count increased by 500 over the month in July 2020. Also recognised is a dramatic fall in the number of hours worked across the economy. Furloughed workers alongside people working fewer than their normal hours have seen the average number of hours worked per week in Northern Ireland fall to the lowest on record (27.1 hours), a

Seasonally adjusted claimant count (experimental) monthly rates, June 2005–July 2020 Rate (%) 8.0 6.8 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0

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cent) and this has been recognised as a major barrier to bridging the productivity gap.

Confirmed and proposed redundancies — Annual totals, Aug–Jul 2005 to Aug–Jul 2020

Wages also fell for the first time since 2015. The median monthly pay of £1,681 for Northern Ireland employees for the three months to June 2020 represents a 0.8 per cent increase on the same period for 2019 but tellingly, the 1.5 per cent decrease from the previous quarter is the second consecutive quarterly decrease, before which none were recorded since 2015.

10,000 9,000

8,755

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,112

3,000

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2,000

While these figures offer a sense of the forthcoming impact on the labour market by the introduction of measures to restrict the spread of Covid-19, it remains too early to fully assess the scale of the economic damage on the Northern Ireland economy caused by the pandemic. Undoubtedly, levels of redundancies will increase, and this will bring about an increase in the unemployment rate and subsequently, a decrease in the employment rate.

Proposed Confirmed

1,000

0 /2

18 20

6 16 20

/1 15

decrease of some 20 per cent over the year.

1 20

10 20

/1 09

/0 05

untouched by the economic crisis, but it is recognised that some sectors will bear a disproportionate impact.

As a result of the economic slowdown, employers in Northern Ireland proposed almost 2,000 redundancies in July. An additional 163 were proposed in the first 10 days of August, meaning that almost 8,755 redundancies have been proposed since the 1 August 2019, the highest annual total since records began. The Department was notified of 610 confirmed redundancies in July 2020, taking the number of confirmed redundancies to 3,112 in 12 months to end of July; compared to 1,785 the previous year

Noticeably, companies are only required to notify the Government when they plan to make more than 20 people redundant, meaning that the figure is likely to be much greater, even with the JRS still in place.

By what levels these figures will change depend largely on the ability of the private sector to respond. In April, the Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce conducted a survey which stated that around 40 per cent of businesses in Northern Ireland have no or less than one month of cash reserves. Such a figure is telling when trying to estimate the ability of businesses to commence operations back to normal levels, or any level, once government supports end.

Worrying for the Northern Ireland economy is that not only are unemployment figures set to rise sharply but that the economic inactivity rate (those aged 16 to 64 who don’t work and are not seeking or available to work) had already increased by 0.6 per cent over the quarter to July and almost 1 per cent over the year. Northern Ireland’s current economic inactivity rate of 26.64 per cent is significantly higher than the UK average (20.4 per

These redundancies were concentrated in but not exclusive to the four economic sectors of retail, hospitality, manufacturing and transportation. No economic sector is expected to be

The length and severity of the economic shock will determine the future outlook of the labour market.

Seasonally adjusted economic inactivity rates (16-64), Apr–Jun 2005 to Apr–Jun 2020

34.0

NI UK

32.0

% of 16-64

30.0 28.0

26.4%

26.0 24.0 22.0

20.4%

20.0

20 20

20 Ap

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18.0

Data source: NISRA’s Northern Ireland Labour Market Report 42

Danske Bank: Looking out for vulnerable customers

economy report

Friends in our branches, contact centre, support teams and front of house security staff and last year became the first bank to sign up to The Equality Commission’s Every Customer Counts initiative, a public commitment to making our services accessible to customers who have a disability. Many thousands of people couldn’t leave their home, or didn’t want to, during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. How did you remain accessible for them?

The coronavirus pandemic has impacted on all aspects of life and every industry. Danske Bank has played a key supporting role in providing unprecedented financial support to personal and business customers across Northern Ireland. But what role have they played in supporting customers who may be feeling a great sense of isolation and vulnerability? agendaNi spoke to Stephen Bloomfield, General Manager of Conduct and Customer Experience at Danske Bank. Danske Bank is Northern Ireland’s biggest bank and therefore plays an important role in society. How do you ensure you look after the most vulnerable people in your customer base? At the very heart of our business is a desire to deliver an exceptional customer experience to all our customers. We’ve worked hard to create a culture of inclusivity and improve the support we provide to customers who are in vulnerable circumstances, whether through bereavement, financial difficulties, mental health issues, gambling addictions, disabilities and many other scenarios we come across every day.

Knowing our customers is key to this, but we have also adopted a strong partnership approach and developed valuable relationships with many fantastic organisations within the charity and voluntary sector such as Action Mental Health, Alzheimer’s Society, Advice NI, Extern, Hourglass NI, the NOW Group, and many others. We’ve invested significantly in staff training and in system improvements to help identify and support our vulnerable customers. Today we have 108 Vulnerability Champions in our branches, contact centre and support functions. We were the first bank to become JAM Card friendly back in 2018, have 200 trained Dementia

We quickly introduced a range of new measures including dedicated phone lines for older customers and the development of a ‘Step-by-Step’ guide to help people understand the different ways to do their banking from home. We also created a ‘Plan Ahead’ guide and a carers’ account to encourage vulnerable customers to think about how they might be able to make banking easier for themselves with support either now or in later years. One of the most impactful actions we took was to set up a ‘Check In and Chat’ team. This team proactively calls elderly customers to see how they are keeping. We know some of these customers may not have family or friends nearby to help them with their messages, and may be feeling lonely. The conversations could be about anything and everything, not necessarily about banking, and we signpost customers to organisations like Age NI if they need extra support. To date we have made over 10,000 such calls and we will continue this work over the months ahead. We have also extended our volunteering programme so that colleagues in other teams can spend some time during their working days making these calls too, further widening our reach. A lot was put together in a short period of time, but it has all been very well received by customers and their families.

Stephen Bloomfield can be contacted at stephen.bloomfield@danskebank.co.uk

round table discussion

Innovation and economic recovery NIE Networks hosted a round table discussion with key stakeholders on the role of innovation as the key to economic recovery. What are the key innovations necessary to rebuild the economy and the challenges in delivering these? Adrian Doran Every business has been forced to take stock of their operations in recent months and had to think about how they can adapt for change. We’ve seen innovative approaches to digital infrastructure, for example, facilitating remote working, however, there are also recognisable challenges in sectors such as hospitality and retail which are going to be economically impacted for some time. The opportunities and challenges facing our economy are multi-faceted, for instance skills and infrastructure, but they are also connected. They require collaboration. One of the advantages of Northern Ireland is our relatively small size, meaning that a joined-up approach to tackling challenges and capitalising on opportunities should be a real strength.

We need to be more innovative in our approach to that.

Grainia Long Integration is crucial. We can no longer afford to build infrastructure on a piece by piece basis and we should never have been allowed to afford it. The days of silos are over and what we need now is ‘multiple solvers’, levers that can be pulled to solve several problems at once, such as the electrification of transport. To do this we need to integrate systems in a way we never have before and we have scale on our side. A strong approach to integration should be our driver but I also think we need to level up the gap between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK in relation to research and development funding. You can’t get innovation without investing in innovation.

Paul Stapleton People are inclined to focus on technology when they think of innovation but I think there is a requirement for a

Round table discussion hosted by

much broader perspective incorporating innovation in governance, policy making, regulatory processes, business models, planning and financing arrangements. Innovation in these areas could be far more impactful than a focus on developing technology. The rest of the world will develop technologies that are fit for purpose here and what we need to focus on is creating the right environment to deploy and integrate those technologies. The public and the private sector demonstrated great agility throughout the pandemic and we should focus on instilling that as we go forward.

Richard Rodgers The Department for the Economy (DfE) have published our medium-term economic recovery plan with clean energy at its centre. Northern Ireland did not benefit from fossil fuels and we’ve been at the mercy of price volatility of crude oil for decades. What is exciting is that we have emerged as a market leader in wind. NIE Networks and SONI have led the way on innovative engineering solutions to mean that we have the greatest penetration of renewables on an electricity system anywhere in the world. We need to continue to be innovative because while we are the market leader in wind, we’re also the market leader in curtailment. That’s a significant opportunity cost. Hydrogen presents great opportunities.

Translink’s hydrogen pilot scheme is using electrolysis, powered by wind that would otherwise be curtailed to produce hydrogen and valuable oxygen. That’s innovation and an example of how we can get ahead.

Ashleen Feeney The pandemic has awakened people to the realities of climate change and what can happen when countries are not prepared for a major global event. Covid-19 has been a health and economic crisis but its impact will be small in comparison to that of climate change. It is a catalytic moment for Northern Ireland to catch-up and now accelerate towards a greener economy and the achievement of net zero. The crisis has shown private sector and public sector collaboration, delivering what is needed at speed – this must become the new normal. Innovation across Northern Ireland’s current approach to the long-term planning of infrastructure investment, including the setting of a long-term vision covering not just the hard infrastructure that the Department for Infrastructure have responsibility for but also energy, digital and social infrastructure too. Furthermore, more innovative funding solutions will need to be embraced if infrastructure investment is to play a key role in the economic recovery and building a more inclusive and sustainable future.

Ian Campbell The Covid crisis has forced us all to reevaluate our society and its priorities and we’re pleased the Government are focusing the recovery of the economy on “building back better”. The focus needs to be on both improved connectivity and sustainable infrastructure. On connectivity, we recognise that consumer behaviours are changing and we are seeking to be agile in responding to changing demands. That means a new approach to transport, including active travel and network design, but also connectivity in relation to digital infrastructure and network communications. 4

Ian Campbell Ian Campbell is the Director of Service Operations for Translink. He is responsible for the delivery of Translink’s bus and rail services in Northern Ireland. He has undertaken a number of senior roles within Translink having previously worked in the Railway Industry in Great Britain. He is a Chartered Engineer, Fellow of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers and Fellow of the Institution of Railway Operators.

round table discussion

Innovation is needed not only in the area of green hydrogen but also blue hydrogen and fundamentally too in relation to energy efficiency. It’s an exciting time because our population size means that we have an opportunity to test things quickly and move on. That requires collaboration between the public and private sectors. We ought to embrace innovation and perhaps not be so prudent all of the time.

Roundtable Participants

Adrian Doran Adrian is Head of Corporate Banking for Barclays in Northern Ireland and is the current Chair of the CBI. Adrian is a qualified Chartered Accountant and is also a member of the Senate of Queen's University Belfast and a member of HM Treasury’s Infrastructure Review Panel. Ashleen Feeney Ashleen is a Markets Partner at KPMG and responsible for pursuing new growth opportunities in Northern Ireland across Corporates, Government and Family Businesses. She has a background in infrastructure advisory. Ashleen is a Fellow of Chartered Accountants Ireland, Member of CBI (NI) Regional Council, Chair of CBI (NI) Infrastructure Working Group and a Member of the Institute of Directors. Ashleen was recently appointed to the Ministerial Advisory Panel on Infrastructure. Grainia Long Grainia is Commissioner for Resilience for the city of Belfast, based in Belfast City Council. Previous to this, she was Chief Executive of ISPCC Childline. This position followed several years working in housing, including as Chief Executive of the Chartered Institute of Housing (CIH), and National Director of the CIH in Northern Ireland. She is currently Chair of Metropolitan Thames Valley Housing Trust, a social housing provider in England, and Senior Independent Director on MTVH Group Board. Richard Rodgers Richard is Head of Energy at the Department for the Economy and has over 30 years’ experience in the energy industry, including at British Gas, Phoenix Natural Gas and as Managing Director (International) at Eaga. He is currently a Strategic Advisor (Energy) at the Strategic Investment Board (seconded into DfE). Richard was a non-executive director on the Board of the Utility Regulator for eight years (ending in March 2019). Paul Stapleton Paul is Managing Director of NIE Networks and joined the company in 2018. Prior to becoming Managing Director, Paul worked for ESB for over 25 years, where he held a number of senior management positions including General Manager of Electric Ireland, ESB Group Treasurer and Financial Controller of ESB Networks Limited. Paul is also a director of Energy Networks Association Ltd and a committee member of the Institute of Directors in Northern Ireland.

round table discussion

“The rest of the world will develop technologies that are fit for purpose here and what we need to focus on is creating the right environment to deploy and integrate those technologies.” Paul Stapleton, Managing Director, NIE Networks

On infrastructure, innovation needs to prioritise sustainable energy technologies and that’s where we’d like to see the focus in order to address climate change. We recognise that we can grow the market for hydrogen through the roll out of Fuel Cell powered public transport but to do that we need access to an available, low cost source of hydrogen which currently doesn’t exist in Northern Ireland. To accelerate the roll out of green, zero emission transport and the wider “green” economy, there needs to be further sustainable energy infrastructure that will produce more renewable electricity and also hydrogen because both are going to play a massive role in decarbonisation of transport and wider society.

Where should investment be prioritised to facilitate economic rebuilding and growth? Adrian Doran The Department for the Economy’s June report on rebuilding a stronger economy rightly outlined a desire to focus on those high-growth sectors such as health and life sciences, advanced manufacturing, clean energy and big data. I think a recognition is necessary that there is limited resources in the

system and that we can’t boil the ocean. In the past we have perhaps tried to support every business and we should be focussing our energies on turbocharging those high growth, high productivity sectors. We are a low productivity economy and the damage currently being done to sectors like hospitality and retail presents an opportunity to retrain and redeploy people.

Richard Rodgers All of the sectors identified in the economic recovery report are interlinked. Clean energy needs those high growth sectors such as advanced manufacturing and digitalisation, high productivity sectors which represent a real opportunity to drive up the Gross Value Added in Northern Ireland. I think government needs to look at facilitating things differently. Taking the challenge to Invest NI as an example, they are working to look differently at how they support indigenous businesses to grow and take control of our supply chains utilising our indigenous resources and to export that IP in products and services.

Paul Stapleton What we need now is an urgency for action to find those projects and opportunities that align with our longterm ambitions, in the context of a very

difficult economic setting. Undoubtedly, that will centre on zero carbon and we need to build on areas of strength in the energy sector. A lot more can be done in relation to our successes in wind but we also need to be investing and running trials in areas such as hydrogen, heat pump technology and innovations in transport. Some of this is ongoing on a small scale but there is a need to scale these pilots up so that they are developing supply chains and the skills that are needed in these sectors. Government won’t have enough money to do all of the innovation necessary and so it needs to set the right context for the unlocking of private capital.

Grainia Long We’ve been doing quite a lot of work across the city in identifying the shovel ready projects that can offer immediate interventions. The last major recession was only a decade ago and so there’s an institutional memory of what worked and what didn’t. Three major challenges we’ve identified are Belfast’s aged housing stock, a traditional skills base in the city and high levels of fuel poverty. Investment in the retrofit of homes represents an opportunity for a lowcarbon, jobs-led growth and will be a big feature of our soon to be published recovery plan. Additionally, the physical retrofit of homes offers the opportunity

“We’re not going to be net zero carbon in less than a decade so what we must do is buy ourselves some time in these early years with national policy and bold statements.” Grainia Long, Commissioner for Resilience, Belfast City Council 46

“Public sector and private sector collaboration is vital for an innovative recovery that is inclusive and sustainable.” round table discussion

Ashleen Feeney, Markets Partner, KPMG

to roll out other infrastructure at scale such as smart meters, so we’re excited about the potential investment in these areas can have. Ten years ago we weren’t the strategic planning authority but we are now and we can’t ignore the fact that we have levers available to us. We’re looking at the assets we hold, the powers available to us and moving as quickly as possible to take action.

Ashleen Feeney A retrofit programme offers a quick win. The Irish Government’s July Stimulus Plan announced funding of €100 million for an Energy Efficiency National Retrofit Programme, recognising the potential such an investment offers in terms of economic growth and the transition to a greener future. With more jobs becoming unsustainable as Covid-19 related Government financial supports to businesses are withdrawn and the full economic scars from the pandemic become clearer, there is an opportunity to quickly support people who want to stay in employment and re-skill them. Looking to the medium and longer term, focus needs to shift to ‘shovel-worthy’ investments, that can shift the economic dial and deliver a permanent uplift in GVA. Identifying the optimal investment mix requires a more comprehensive programme approach and the use of next generation economic tools, some of which have been used to support prioritisation and practical decisionmaking across City Region and Growth Deals.

How important will delivering a sustainable pathway for transport be to underpinning long-term economic ambitions? What are the areas of greatest importance?

Ian Campbell Any successful economy has a modern and efficient transport system. Recent investment in public transport, such as the Glider in Belfast and new trains, has brought about a recognisable modal shift from the car to public transport, which in turn promotes heath through active travel. Transport uses one third of all energy in Northern Ireland and generates a quarter of greenhouse gases. Therefore, in tackling the climate emergency, transport is a key target area. In Translink we’ve identified quick but ambitious programmes to accelerate decarbonisation of transport and believe that with the right investment both Belfast and Derry’s bus networks could be zero emission by 2030. We’re discussing the significant acceleration of pilots around hydrogen and battery electric bus transport because if we’re serious about decarbonising the transport system we have to upscale renewable technologies in order to replace the energy for transport currently supplied by fossil fuels. This will require a significant increase in both renewable electricity and hydrogen supply.

Paul Stapleton Transport is fundamental to a cohesive and well-balanced economy and a new model for transport is required to address climate action. Greater levels of electrification pose two challenges. Firstly, the electricity network needs to be able to cope with the demand. Whether wind is used to produce electricity for the network or for hydrogen, it needs a network to connect to and I think we need to be anticipating those network needs over the next decade and taking decisions in advance. Our current model is a reactive one and we need to reverse that. In terms of the private fleet, at a ground

level, we need a much more extensive EV charging infrastructure. That ultimately shouldn’t be done by an electricity network operator like us but we have played a role in providing what exists currently and are prepared to play a role in extending that, pending the emergence of a commercial market.

Richard Rodgers Affordability is a recurring theme. Affordability in the household sector to tackle fuel poverty but also for business. We’ve experienced the pain of expensive electricity previously, a legacy from privatisation, and we must protect competitive electricity prices. That is why, in the Department, and as part of the energy strategy, we’re seeking the optimal pathway to decarbonisation. That means that some things might have to wait a few years as we seek to protect affordability. The fact is that we haven’t got enough renewable energy to cover for the total removal of fossil fuels and that is why we need a lot of innovation to try and unlock green technologies. I used to be quite sceptical about the potential for blue hydrogen but I now recognise its potential as a transition fuel and a potential substitute fuel to decarbonise the transport pathway. Blue hydrogen offers a real value added economic opportunity for Northern Ireland over the next 10-20 years. Steam methane reforming is happening in other parts of the world but why can’t we use our advanced manufacturing capability, coupled with our wind penetration on the electricity side, to lead us more swiftly to zero carbon above any other modern economy?

Grainia Long I don’t think we shout loud enough about how ambitious we are and the speed at which we are moving in relation to transport. As a heavily car

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“We are a low productivity economy and the damage currently being done to sectors like hospitality and retail presents an opportunity round table discussion

to retrain and redeploy people.” Adrian Doran, Chair, CBI NI dependent city, Belfast and wider Northern Ireland is exposed to significant risks because of climate change and that’s impacting on our resilience. The economic impact of climate change is evident today. However, the last number of years have seen a shift in the levels of ambition and I pay tribute to Translink who have not only put 2030 targets in their sites but have a plan to follow through. It’s important that we shout about that and the public recognises the statement of intent because that drives behavioural change. Outside of public transport, Belfast City Council are part of an Innovate UKfunded project around EV infrastructure. We need that to happen at scale but we also need to figure out the practicalities of delivering EV points. I don’t absolve our organisation and other large organisations from the need for progress on decarbonising freight vehicles and how we move waste around the city. We need to be much more proactive in planning for the decarbonised movement of people, goods and services and I don’t think we’re there yet.

Should the economic recovery be aided by a ‘green new deal’? And what would that look like? Richard Rodgers The phrase ‘green new deal’ has developed so many meanings recently but what it means to me is how you finance that transition to low-carbon and zero carbon energy. We have to wean people off fossil fuels and off grant culture. It’s about investing to save and government must find innovative ways

to do that. Financial stimulus from a green new deal would have a multiplier effect on the economy. The recovery needs financed and it needs financed in a way that we don’t put all the costs into our infrastructure and makes us noncompetitive.

Ashleen Feeney The green recovery is well documented and transition to net zero is imperative. However, funding, not financing, is a big challenge. There is a wall of capital out there seeking opportunities and we are at the start of a decade of low cost financing. However, a big debate is needed on infrastructure funding and who pays for the transition to a greener economy. A green new deal that stimulates the retrofit of housing stock in Northern Ireland would make a good start.

Adrian Doran The wind energy sector has been a tremendous success story and a prime example of how very clever government policy in the form of renewables obligations certificates (ROCs) can facilitate lending to a sector and enable the mushrooming of that sector. It’s very unlikely that banks are going to finance risky new venture technology without some form of government support. A green new deal is about setting out a plan and being innovative in the business and funding models. If we’re nimble and agile enough to bring better collaboration between the private and public sectors, then we can do this.

Grainia Long For me, it’s about how we restructure our economy and how we do that at pace. The University of Oxford recently published research by leading

economists, who spoke to a wide range of stakeholders across the globe and identified five consistent policy items for fiscal stimulus including: clean physical infrastructure investment; building efficiency retrofits; investment in education and training to address immediate unemployment from Covid-19 and structural unemployment from decarbonisation; natural capital investment for ecosystem resilience and regeneration and; clean research and development investment. The point is that they’re not ground-breaking solutions, we know the pathways. We now need to link the governance, plans and strategies with the capital and investment. We recently undertook an economic analysis of decarbonisation for Belfast and it flagged up that we essentially have nine years of carbon left. We’re not going to be net zero carbon in less than a decade so what we must do is buy ourselves some time in these early years with national policy and bold statements. That for me is what a green new deal looks like.

Paul Stapleton Financing is undoubtedly the biggest challenge we face and in the pending economic climate we need to find ways to unlock the private capital. Under our current model for electricity networks, we’re privately funded, we can go to capital markets, we can borrow money, but our investment plan is regulated. So, we’re investing in accordance to what the Utility Regulator determines is needed and is ultimately funded by electricity consumers. We see the electrification story as a real opportunity, because as consumers pay for clean energy and not traditional fossil fuels the increasing demand facilitates investment. Growth is the magic element

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“The fact is that we haven’t got enough renewable energy to cover for the total removal of fossil fuels and that is why we need a lot of innovation to try and unlock green technologies.” Richard Rodgers, Head of Energy, Department for the Economy here. If we can get growth and demand for clean energy, that will help to pay for the investment, which can be funded privately, off private balance sheets and regulated to ensure the investment is in line with public policy.

Ashleen Feeney

Adrian Doran I think skills in terms of how we educate our young people and how we retrain and redeploy those traditional workers. It’s critical to get innovation in the new economy.

Ian Campbell

Investors are now banging the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) drum. If investee companies aren’t taking climate change seriously then investors will walk away, private capital is mobile. Sustainability matters are now front and centre of the CEO and boardroom agenda, which is a good thing.

What one area should policy makers and business leaders focus on for an innovative recovery? Ashleen Feeney The long-term approach to infrastructure planning, prioritisation and investment. Public sector and private sector collaboration is vital for an innovative recovery that is inclusive and sustainable.

I agree it is skills and would ask for a renewed emphasis on apprenticeships. If we are going to meet the ambitions of innovation then we are going to need the people to deliver that. We need to support and incentivise organisations to focus on apprenticeships which will help the next generation of school leavers find employment in the growth sectors of sustainable and digital technologies. Northern Ireland has the opportunity to be a world leader in sustainable technologies such as the Hydrogen sector. To realise this opportunity we need to focus on creating high tech apprenticeships that in turn will drive growth of the sustainable economy and create employment.

Paul Stapleton I believe the biggest difference would be made by the Northern Ireland Executive

adopting an ambitious climate change target and enshrining that in legislation. The setting of direction would be a huge impetus for enabling investment and activity right across the economy and across all sectors.

Richard Rodgers We are a windy region. We have 48 per cent of our electricity generated today from renewable sources. The focus of our innovative efforts should be on creating sustainable employment, skills development and investment in low and zero carbon solutions. If ever there was an area ripe for public/private collaboration, this is it.

Grainia Long As well as decarbonising our transport system, imagine if we took a similar target to ensure energy efficient buildings across Northern Ireland for 2030. That would guarantee jobs, supply chains and skill up a new generation in building technologies. It’s a practical programme that the public would understand. Crucial to policy success is ensuring that the public are on board because it’s about changing behaviours.

“If we’re serious about decarbonising the transport system we have to upscale renewable technologies in order to replace the energy for transport currently supplied by fossil fuels.” Ian Campbell, Director of Service Operations, Translink 49

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Implementing a Skills Strategy Inevitable increases in the unemployment rate, detrimental health impacts and a reduction in demand for goods and services caused by the Covid-19 pandemic will be major factors in shaping a new Skills Strategy for Northern Ireland. The Department for the Economy is in the process of developing a new Skills Strategy for Northern Ireland, underpinned by the pledge agreed to in the New Decade, New Approach document that the Executive will invest strategically in ensuring that Northern Ireland has the right mix of skills for a thriving economy. “A resilient and responsive skills system has the potential to have a significant role to play in Northern Ireland’s economic recovery,” stated a recent extensive report produced by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which is set to inform the Department’s delivery of a future Skills Strategy. Acknowledged by the OECD is that the impact of the pandemic, while still unmeasurable, will likely “reverse” much of the progress which has been made in the past two decades with regards to economic output, education, jobs, health and accessibility to services. Challenges for Northern Ireland in relation to skills and their impact on economic recovery predate, and indeed, extend beyond the pandemic impact. The region continues to experience high levels of economic inactivity, some 17 per cent above the

UK average and despite progress, the economy is still shaped by a small number of large, low value-added sectors and this is evident across industries where sectoral productivity is lower than the UK average in 16 out of 20 sectors. The OECD highlights that recognised skills imbalances in Northern Ireland’s labour market, where skill levels of adults in Northern Ireland are below those of many other OECD countries, are “rooted in poor governance arrangements across policy areas and levels of government”. These challenges have already been identified as in need of solution, even prior to the pandemic outbreak, as Northern Ireland sought to map out a plan for economic growth amidst the recognised challenges of digitalisation, technological change, an ageing population, climate change and, more recently, Brexit. It’s estimated that automation could potentially generate up to 70,000 jobs in Northern Ireland by 2030, which would ultimately boost productivity, however, it’s also been recognised that digitalisation will change the nature of many jobs and eradicate the need for human input in others, potentially reshaping the labour market. Northern

Ireland is the UK region with the highest share of jobs threatened in this regard. Similarly, Northern Ireland’s ageing population, with the share of people aged 65 and above expected to increase from 17 per cent in 2020 to 21 per cent by 2030, coupled with a projected largest percentage decrease in children across the UK to 2043, has the potential to lead to labour shortages and ultimately a negative impact on economic growth. Aims to address the climate crisis are also expected to have a transformative impact on the labour market. While new ‘green jobs’ will be created, the likelihood is that they will replace or substitute existing jobs. Significantly, Northern Ireland’s dependence on external investment and attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) will be disrupted if trading barriers are erected, either with EU countries or the rest of the UK, as a result of Brexit, with many businesses feeling the impact. Additionally, local skill shortages in Northern Ireland have traditionally been met by inward migration. There has been a noticeable decrease in the numbers since the Brexit referendum outcome and it’s understood that this will be

exacerbated following the UK’s exit from the EU and could impact on business investment and subsequently cause economic disruption.

These strategies have enabled “significant progress” in strengthening the skills system, as well as the economic and social performance, in recent years. However, the importance of an effective new Skills Strategy for Northern Ireland has been highlighted by the assessment within the report that: “As a result of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic especially, people will increasingly need to upgrade their skills to perform new tasks in their existing jobs, or acquire new skills for new jobs, as well as to adapt to new modes of behaviour, consumption and work.” The context for these changes in the labour market is an economic shock worse than the 2008 financial crash. Sharp contractions in output, household spending, corporate investment and international trade will have implications for GDP growth and reductions to travel, migration and trade will accelerate the identified trends such as digitalisation. “The resulting changes in behaviour and consumption, in turn, have the potential to impact where jobs of the future lie, and by the extension, the skills requirements to undertake these jobs. In this context, a resilient and responsive skills system will have a significant role to play in Northern Ireland’s economic recovery,” the OECD states. Turning to the recommendations that will form a basis from which Northern Ireland’s future Skills Strategy is developed, the OECD highlights four priority areas for improving Northern Ireland’s skills performance. The first recommendation is the need

The second recommendation is for the creation of a “culture of lifelong learning”, which it states is crucial to ensure individuals participate in adult learning after leaving the compulsory education system. This, it says, will increase the motivation of adults to learn and remove barriers to access

strengthen support structures for businesses”. It suggests the development of a new strategy for management and leadership capability and the introduction of new, and expansion of existing, management and leadership programmes for micro and small businesses. Additionally, it suggests the improvement of information on business support programmes for growth and innovation, including raising the profile of nibusinessinfo.co.uk and launching diagnostic tools.

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The OECD notes that Northern Ireland has previously implemented a range of strategies and reforms to create a skills architecture capable of addressing some of these challenges, most notably, the Success through Skills – Transforming Futures skills strategy launched in 2011 and runs until 2020, as well as a subsequent series of policies aimed at improving specific areas of Northern Ireland’s skills system, such as the Northern Ireland Strategy for Further Education launched in 2016, skills prioritisation in the draft Programme for Government and within the two recently announced City Deals.

to reduce the skills imbalances that exist in Northern Ireland, which are recognised causes of increased labour costs, low productivity and the slower adoption of new technologies. Solutions, the OECD suggest, are the enhancement of provisions for career guidance, the reduction of economic inactivity and the improvement of labour mobility. Specifically, the OECD suggests the introduction of reforms of funding models to relate grant funding to graduate employment outcomes. It also highlights the need for a regional approach to attracting skilled migrants.

Finally, the OECD recommends a strengthening of the governance of skills policies, recognising that the success of skills policies typically depend on a wide range of actors. The solution, it suggests, is the introduction of sustainable funding arrangements

“As a result of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic especially, people will increasingly need to upgrade their skills to perform new tasks in their existing jobs, or acquire new skills for new jobs, as well as to adapt to new modes of behaviour, consumption and work.” adult learning opportunities for individuals and employers. It recommends that Northern Ireland publish a “single, comprehensive strategy setting out a holistic vision for adult learning across different cohorts of learners”. Also, the establishment of a ring-fenced skills fund to subsidise the provision of training opportunities and apprenticeships, while developing a common online learning platform to blend approaches to further education. The recommendations do not simply focus on people but also on places. The third instruction encompasses the transformation of workplaces to make better use of skills, recognising the ability of conditions to directly support skills to aid in raising productivity and innovation for businesses, as well as increase wages and job satisfaction for employees. The OECD states that Northern Ireland should “strengthen management and leadership capabilities; develop engaging and empowering workplaces; and

and commitment to an overarching skills strategy and the improvement of employer engagement in the governance of skills policies. The main recommendations, in this regard, are for an ensured commitment from the Northern Ireland Executive to a cross-departmental skills strategy and the introduction of a central oversight body to increase coordination in skills policy. Additionally, a central skills needs advisory body should be implemented to advise government on skills policy, as a result of high-level employer engagement bodies. Minister for the Economy, Diane Dodds has highlighted a “highly effective” Skills Strategy as a priority upon taking up the portfolio and outlined plans to bring forward “a holistic skills strategy for the next decade”, however, she has also highlighted the importance of a sustainable and long-term investment package to establishing a world class skills system. 51

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Geology and sustainable tourism: The benefits of UNESCO in Northern Ireland some of the most important places across the country. However, this total figure is from across the UK and disguises significant variations, with those in Northern Ireland being proportionately higher.

Geology plays an important role in Northern Ireland’s economy, being essential to meet the demands of the manufacturing, technology and construction sectors; but also fundamental to the tourism sector of Northern Ireland’s economy. With many of Northern Ireland’s top tourist attractions and destinations based on and around the natural landscape, it is impossible to ignore the contribution geology has made to this sector, but it is difficult to quantify. A recent report from the UK National Commission for UNESCO (UKNC) has tried to address that by studying the value of some of our most cherished natural heritage sites and reports that those in Northern Ireland contribute almost £500 million to Northern Ireland’s economy annually. The research carried out by the UKNC 52

highlights not just the financial value but also the environmental and cultural benefits of 76 UNESCO projects in the UK. It also makes an assessment on their contribution to helping achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The numerous projects make up a vast network that is rooted in communities, rich in potential and impacting lives in the UK and around the world. The report indicates that in total, the UNESCO projects in the UK generate an estimated £151 million of direct financial benefits to local communities each year, helping them to protect and conserve

The report also highlights the ability of UNESCO designated sites to attract additional income primarily resulting from the recognition of the UNESCO brand as a driver for tourism, but also the international recognition of the global importance and significance of designated areas. In the case of Northern Ireland, this is as a direct result of internationally important geology. UNESCO can also capitalise on global networks, which may seem less significant during the Covid-19 pandemic, but these networks also operate virtually and are vital for capacity-building and knowledge exchange. In Northern Ireland there are six UNESCO projects including one World Heritage Site, one UNESCO Global Geopark, two UNESCO University Professorships and two Cities of Lifelong Learning. Of these, two are used as case studies within the report; the Giant’s Causeway and Causeway Coast World Heritage Site and the Marble Arch Caves UNESCO Global Geopark. Both sites are recognised by UNESCO because of their internationally important geological heritage and have been used as case studies within the report because of their unequivocal contribution to the Northern Ireland economy and to their local communities. The Giant’s Causeway and Causeway Coast World Heritage Site, referred to as ‘The Giant’s Causeway’, located on the North Antrim coast is Northern Ireland’s top tourist attraction. Before the Covid19 pandemic, the Giant’s Causeway

The Marble Arch Caves UNESCO Global Geopark encompasses an area of land which crosses the border between counties Fermanagh in Northern Ireland and Cavan in the Republic of Ireland and was the first cross-border Geopark anywhere in the world. The Geopark is used as a catalyst for sustainable development in the region and according to figures from the Marble Arch Caves UNESCO Global Geopark attracts over 400,000 visitors annually to its numerous sites and recreational facilities, generating an estimated £15 million in total for the local economies in Fermanagh and Cavan. Geoparks are dedicated to telling the story of the earth through their unique natural, cultural and geological heritage, which in the case of the Marble Arch Caves UNESCO Global Geopark straddles the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Cross-border education therefore plays a vital role in outreach and engagement programmes with earth science education playing a particularly large part. The UKNC reports that over 1,000 school pupils take part in annual Science Week workshops, helping to forge strong links with schools, local businesses, and other organisations to ensure benefits for not only visitors to the area, but also for those that live and work there. The geology of Northern Ireland is quite literally the foundation of many of our other tourist destinations that have not been necessarily designated by UNESCO; the Mourne Mountains and Ring of Gullion, the shores of Strangford Lough, the Antrim Coast Road, Carrick-arede, and the Gobbins are just some in a very long list. Many of these locations not only have significant financial benefits for local communities, but they also have

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attracted more than one million visitors annually and welcomed people from over 160 countries across the world. The UKNC report finds that in 2017, the Giant’s Causeway helped generate over £480 million for the Causeway Coast and Glens region profiting from tourism expenditure on accommodation, food and drink, shopping and transport all in the local area. The UKNC report also states that the Giant’s Causeway is one of the main employers in the area with, pre-Covid-19, 75 full-time staff, increasing significantly during peak season. Together with a contribution of £3.5 million in wages to local people and over 80 per cent of the arts and crafts for sale in the Visitor Centre being produced locally or from within the island of Ireland, the economic benefits of this geology-based tourist attraction are easily demonstrated.

strong educational, cultural and social benefits as well. What the UNESCO report has done is try to quantify some of these benefits and highlighted the importance of our special sites. The Department for the Economy has long recognised the important role that geology plays in sustainable tourism and has an active role in developing and promoting sustainable tourism across Northern Ireland through the work of the Geological Survey of Northern Ireland (GSNI). GSNI was instrumental in establishing the UNESCO Global Geoparks designation in 2015 and is a member of the UNESCO Global Geoparks Council that steers the strategic direction of UNESCO Global Geoparks. GSNI currently chairs the UK Committee for UNESCO Global Geoparks and works closely with the UKNC to support and promote new and aspiring UNESCO Global Geoparks and to raise awareness of their benefits. In addition, GSNI was part of the team that set up the Marble Arch Caves UNESCO Global Geopark in 2001, it still acts as Scientific Adviser through the Geopark Management Team, and sits on the Giant’s Causeway and Causeway Coast WHS Steering Group providing advice and guidance on geological tourism, conservation and promotion. Through this work, GSNI ensures that our geological heritage receives the international recognition that it deserves, and that it is used sustainably as a driver for tourism.

The report from the UKNC indicates that the Giant’s Causeway and Causeway Coast World Heritage Site and the Marble Arch Caves UNESCO Global Geopark generate almost £500 million for the Northern Ireland economy annually. At the same time, they both contribute to the delivery of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. It is hoped that the results of this research will encourage a much greater appreciation of the role that geology has to play in sustainable tourism in Northern Ireland. The report has demonstrated the significant financial benefits that geologybased tourism destinations can have and the wider environmental and cultural benefits they can bring for their local communities. The report will also provide a better understanding of the potential of UNESCO projects and in particular, the role they must play in building a greener, and more sustainable Northern Ireland. To read the full report visit: https://bit.ly/2Didt3T

Dr Kirstin Lemon Geological Survey of Northern Ireland Dundonald House Upper Newtownards Road Belfast, BT4 3SB W: www.bgs.ac.uk/gsni E: gsni@economy-ni.gov.uk Twitter: @GeoSurveyNI

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Emergency Budget delayed Chancellor Rishi Sunak meets with outgoing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney at 11 Downing Street.

Plans for a large economic stimulus package for the UK economy have been delayed, with the Treasury downplaying the idea that such a package will constitute an emergency Budget. As the UK seeks to kickstart its economic recovery following the lifting of many restrictions introduced to manage the spread of Covid-19, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has delayed plans to announce a large-scale stimulus package, expected to contain spending commitments and tax cuts. Instead, the Chancellor, who has been the face of a range of mitigation measures introduced by the UK Government to protect the economy at an estimated cost of £133 billion, looks set to wait until the autumn to make any announcement, allowing for more time to assess the damage done to the economic landscape and, potentially, greater clarity on the UK’s trading relationship with its largest export partner the EU. However, hopes that the package would amount to an emergency Budget have been downplayed by the Treasury, 54

who introduced an updated, limited package of measures in July.

which will ultimately reshape the economic outlook.

It’s believed that the UK Government’s ambitions for economic recovery have been dampened by lower than expected levels of consumer spending, following the easing of lockdown measures.

The Job Retention Scheme, the largest and most expensive measure announced by Sunak, was developed with the aim of freezing the economy and limiting the number of job losses and businesses collapsing. The summer statement was expected to represent a thawing of this freeze and signal the Government’s ‘rebuild’ phase of its pandemic management. Instead, however, with increased threats of a second wave, the Chancellor has opted for a stopgap.

Data gathered by the Financial Times’ Economic Editor Chris Giles shows little uplift in the high-frequency indicators of consumer spending, mobility and confidence in the weeks following the UK Government’s advice for people to go back to work on 11 May, compared to at the height of lockdown. Budget 2020 was only announced in early March but was largely overshadowed by the scale of the pandemic outbreak. Just weeks later, Sunak was forced to announce radical measures to tackle the pandemic,

The £30 billion package is much lower than many had expected and is tailored to limiting the levels of redundancies and propping up the hospitality sector over what would usually be its income heavy months. With the Chancellor adamant that the Job Retention Scheme support will end in October,

there is also a focus on preventing a rise in youth unemployment.

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For jobs, Sunak introduced a job retention bonus, offering £1,000 per worker to businesses bringing staff off furlough at a potential, although unlikely, cost of £9 billion. Any fall in the cost, through employers not bringing workers back, would also represent a drop in the investment levels of the package. He also re-announced plans for a £2 billion work creation scheme aimed at young people. In relation to tourism and hospitality, the Treasury has cut the VAT rate from 20 per cent to 5 per cent for the industry for six months. Additionally, the ‘eat out to help out’ scheme, which saw the Government pay a portion of an individual’s bill up to £10 for the month of August, was aimed at enhancing consumer spend in the industry. Additionally, the housing market in England got a boost with the raising of the stamp duty threshold from £125,000 to £500,000 until the end of March 2021. The raise also applied to Northern Ireland but given that the average house price in Northern Ireland is much lower than other regions of the UK, any saving to the average purchaser is expected to be minimal. Likely to shape any emergency Budget, if that is indeed what emerges, is the success which these measures have, given the huge levels of public borrowing the UK has had to undertake already. It is estimated that the £350 billion borrowed for the financial year represents 18 per cent of national income and is nearly twice the size of the deficit at the height of the financial crisis.

Minister for the Department of Finance, Conor Murphy MLA.

For Northern Ireland, the Barnett consequential of the package, including a £33 million announced by the Treasury for cultural support previously, was estimated to be in the region of £162 million. However, in an unprecedented step from the usual funding process, the Chancellor made an upfront guarantee to the devolved regions based on estimations of the total additional spending for England. The £600 million announced for Northern Ireland came after Finance Minister Conor Murphy had coauthored a letter from the finance ministers of the devolved regions calling

“The summer statement was expected to represent a thawing of this freeze and signal the Government’s ‘rebuild’ phase of its pandemic management. Instead, however, with increased threats of a second wave, the Chancellor has opted for a stopgap.”

on Sunak to change how the devolved governments were funded and called for more flexibility in the spending rules. The amount of money available for spending by the Northern Ireland Executive had been unclear given that funding due to the devolved governments had been based on the upper limit of spending schemes announced in England. However, the Treasury moved to guarantee funding which had already been announced. Finance Minister Conor Murphy originally criticised the summer package announced by Sunak as not being “ambitious enough to spur economic recovery” and called for “comprehensive stimulus package”, while welcoming the cut in the VAT rate and the Job Retention Bonus Scheme, as well as the ‘eat out to help out’ discount scheme. However, following the confirmation of the £600 million to be allocated to Stormont, he issued a fresh statement welcoming the additional funding and the clarity provided on the Executive’s budget for its Covid response. Murphy has suggested that it will be September before the Executive announces where the additional money will be spent but that it is likely the majority will go to the Department of Health, with upcoming winter pressures in mind. 55

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Devolving fiscal policy Co-director at the Nevin Economic Research Institute, Paul Mac Flynn, argues for the need for a UK wide system of fiscal equalisation for both expenditure and revenue, believing the renewed debate around fiscal devolution has too narrow a focus.

New Decade, New Approach was the plan that led to the restoration of the Northern Ireland Executive earlier this year but it was also a document that set out a more ambitious role for the Executive particularly related to economic matters. One of the key planks of this strategy was an increased emphasis on Northern Ireland beginning to raise more of its own revenues. The debate about fiscal powers in Northern Ireland has been disproportionately focused on the gap between the amount of public expenditure in Northern Ireland and the amount of revenue raised in the region. Such discussion generates little or no utility for public policy debates about improving the devolution settlement.

focused on the Executive using its existing limited fiscal capacity to levy increased and additional charges to fund greater public expenditure. Unfortunately, this line of policy starts out from the flawed assumption that financial pressures on public expenditure in Northern Ireland are the responsibility of the Executive and even more erroneously suggests that the Executive has the competence to do something about it. In reality, the capacity of public expenditure in Northern Ireland to meet the needs of public services and public welfare in Northern Ireland is a function of the decisions taken by the UK Government and the Barnett-related outcome that transpires subsequently.

At present the Northern Ireland Executive raises approximately 5 per cent of Northern Irelandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total revenue. Regrettably, much of the debate on fiscal policy in Northern Ireland has

It is of course possible that increased user charges and levies, which could be achieved without any further devolution, could raise additional funds but in this scenario the level of additional revenue

would be minimal. A 2013 report for the Northern Ireland Council for Voluntary Action examined what charges and levies the Executive could reasonably apply and estimated what level of additional revenue they could hope to gain. The report profiled more than a dozen measures with the upper limit of what could be raised estimated to be in the region of ÂŁ400 million. This is not an insignificant sum of money, but it equates to less than 2 per cent of Northern Irelandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s public expenditure. Furthermore, most of the measure outlined are either user charges or levies that are not linked to income and so by their very nature are likely to be highly regressive. Even in the scenario where Northern Ireland does raise this amount of money, the financial boost to the Executive is likely to be short-lived. Any shortfalls in public expenditure are the direct result of funding shortfalls from

It is posited that one way for the Executive to take a more assertive role in economic policy is for the Executive’s expenditure to have some level of connection to the health of the local economy through exposure to tax receipts. However, we should not fall into the same trap here either. It is not about attempting to plug Northern Ireland’s perceived fiscal deficit. The process of making the Executive responsible for revenue that currently flows directly to the UK Exchequer is about refocusing incentives in order that the Executive itself makes better expenditure decisions. There is a need for caution here too. Devolving the power to raise significant revenue streams such as income or consumption taxes is a significant reform and the implications for public expenditure need to be understood. To understand how any such transfer of tax raising powers would work in Northern Ireland it is instructive to look at the most recent experience of fiscal devolution in the UK. Following the report of the Smith Commission in 2016 various new tax raising powers were transferred from the UK Government to the Scottish Government. Among these new powers the Scottish Government now receives all income tax and up to half of VAT receipts in Scotland. Scotland still receives a ‘block grant’ from the UK Government, but now part of that grant is reduced to reflect the loss to the UK exchequer of the income tax revenues that now go directly to the Scottish Government. The fiscal framework that is in place for Scotland is quite complex and has numerous break clauses and feedback loops. This is because the public expenditure disbursement in the UK was not intended for the political settlement that is now in place. The Barnett formula and the mechanisms of expenditure devolution were never

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UK Government decisions. Using £400 million to plug existing gaps will not remove the likelihood of further shortfalls in the future. The sufficiency of public expenditure in Northern Ireland is a UK wide issue. The UK has one of the lowest population-adjusted levels of public expenditure in Northern Europe. Most importantly, from our perspective, the UK also has one of the lowest levels of revenue per population, especially regarding employer social insurance contributions. Debates about the proper funding of Northern Ireland public services are discussions best directed at UK revenue and expenditure levels.

“A needs-based approach to regional funding has been long argued for and its case would only be strengthened with greater fiscal devolution.” intended to exist alongside significant fiscal devolution to the regions. The system of block grants has been warped in order to accommodate greater fiscal devolution in Scotland, but it is an unnecessary compromise. If fiscal devolution is to take place, policy would be better focused on reforming the entirety of the current revenue and expenditure system to design one more appropriate for the political situation that now exists. Calls for the reform of the Barnett formula long predate this current phase of devolution. It is worth reconsidering some of those issues in the context that we now find ourselves in. The most enduring criticism of the Barnett formula is its simplicity. The Barnett formula seeks only to apportion the same level of increase in devolved areas of spending between the regions and the rest of the UK. At no point does the formula seek to take into account any unique or extenuating circumstances that exist within a region. A needs-based approach to regional funding has been long argued for and its case would only be strengthened with greater fiscal devolution. Replacing the Barnett formula with a needs-based system of public expenditure appropriation is a

necessary but not sufficient condition for the new settlement needed for Northern Ireland and the other UK regions. If the goal for Northern Ireland is to improve the incentive structure for policymakers in the devolved government, the other side of the new settlement should focus on revenue raising capacities and what can be expected of regions and devolved government. What is needed is a UK wide system of fiscal equalisation for both expenditure and revenue. This is a process whereby central government recognises, that the cost of delivering public services is unique to every region and that the capacity to raise revenue is unique to every region. Under fiscal equalisation, regions can raise revenue, but public expenditure resources are adjusted to reflect the proportion of potential revenue that was collected and the unique constraints of the cost of providing public services in that region. Having both these mechanisms in place allows regional governments to be exposed to tax receipts without the danger of undermining their financial position. It provides an incentive structure for the Northern Ireland Executive to boost tax revenues, whilst not introducing unnecessary volatility into the provision of public services. 57

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EU migrant restrictions to undermine economic rebuild Some of Northern Ireland’s hardest hit economic sectors by the Covid-19 pandemic are to be dealt a further blow by a recruitment crisis driven by barriers to migrant labour, writes David Whelan. Efforts to support those sectors worst affected by the virus and subsequent measures to contain it will be undermined by the UK Government’s failure to recognise the unique make-up of Northern Ireland’s labour market. With the UK having now officially left the EU, changes to the immigration system will take place from 1 January 2021 and the UK’s proposed approach will be detrimental to ambitions to drive economic recovery in Northern Ireland. In four months’ time, free movement rights will end for UK nationals travelling to the EU and vice versa, as the new UK points-based immigration system comes in to play. However, two years of lobbying by industry in Northern Ireland about their unique requirements to access to migrant labour appears to have fallen on deaf

ears as the Government pushes ahead with a blanket approach for the UK. In early 2020, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), an independent, non-departmental public body that advises government on migration issues, produced a range of recommendations prior to workers from the EU joining the current system of skilled migrants from outside of the EU in 2021. The most significant of these recommendations, and one adopted by the Government, was a lowering of the salary threshold from £30,000 to £25,600, however, the MAC advised against a regional variation salary threshold, believing such a move would risk labelling some places as low wage and “reinforcing geographical inequalities”.

The fact is though, that Northern Ireland is very much ‘low wage’ when compared to its UK counterparts and geographical inequality exists. Ironically, access to skilled labour and addressing skill gaps in the labour market is a major pillar of ambitions to grow Northern Ireland’s economy and address geographic inequality. The median pay for EU26 workers in Northern Ireland is £18,000, significantly below the £25,600 threshold. The importance of access to migrant workers from the UK was highlighted by a report by the Department for the Economy in March 2018, which calculated that all employment recovery in Northern Ireland over the past decade was driven by migrant workers from the EU. The sectoral impact of these restrictions

Northern Ireland's annual future demand of qualifications by shortage occupation list (SOL) and non-SOL NQF Level 2 & below

NQF Level 3-5

economy report

NQF Level 6+

10%

20%

30%

40% SOL

50%

60%

Non-SOL

70%

80%

90%

100%

Source: UUPEC NI Skills Barometer 2019

that 26,300 people per year will be required from education or migration to 2028 to meet future demand. Around 70 per cent of these will be required to replace existing workers, with the rest due to business growth.

is set to be varied. Data from the Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show that in Northern Ireland, EU migrants account for 40 per cent of employees in food manufacturing, 16 per cent in manufacturing overall and 8 per cent in distribution, hotels and restaurants – all of which are large employment areas but which have average wages below the Northern Ireland economic average. Forecasts done by Oxford Economics, prior to the pandemic, estimated that the salary threshold would reduce employment levels by almost 2 per cent (17,100) by 2030. Even prior to the threshold coming into force, Northern

Ireland was already experiencing a shortfall in EU migrant labour as a result of the uncertainty caused by Brexit. Recent figures from NISRA illustrate a reduction of 24 per cent of EU26 born people employed in Northern Ireland since early 2016 to early 2020. The MAC did reference Northern Ireland’s unique position of sharing a land border with Europe and its distinct labour market by recommending “special consideration” be given, but the UK Government failed to acknowledge this in its changes. The significance of EU migrant labour restrictions for Northern Ireland’s efforts to rebuild and grow the economy for the future is highlighted in predictions

Health, undoubtedly the sector most directly impacted by the pandemic, provides a prime example of the detrimental impact the wage threshold will have. Around 7 per cent of Northern Ireland’s health and social care services are EU26 nationals and evidence submitted by the Department for the Economy to the MAC, prior to its recommendations, stated that of the many roles within HSC in Northern Ireland, which will now fall within the Tier 2 visa system, the vast majority would not reach the minimum salary, even with the 20 per cent discount offered for jobs on the UK’s shortage occupation list (SOL). This means that many EU26 nursing supports and social care workers, both areas with significant vacancy rates, will not meet all of the Tier 2 criteria. The knock-on effect, as highlighted by the Department, is that vital services will be relying on a smaller, local only, applicant pool and be without a stable and well-resourced support service, “seriously compromising” the health and social care system. A Northern Ireland specific SOL list or an expansion of the UK’s list, to address needs in Northern Ireland, was the focus of evidence of Economy Minister Diane Dodds in her written submission to the MAC. Dodds’ Department is currently formulating a

4 59

NI and UK Salaries (RQF 3/Lower Skilled – RQF 4) £40,000

£35,000

£30,000

£25,000

economy report

£20,000

£15,000

£10,000

£5,000

£0

Photographers, audio vis ual and broadcasting equipment operators UK Median £25,958 NI Median

£14,442

£33,176

Fishing and other elementary agriculture occupations n.e.c. £20,186

£25,583

£24,229

Electricians and electrical fitters

Engineering technicians

Housing officers

Counsellors

Fire s ervice officers (watch manager and below)

Pers onal assis tants and other secretaries

Health and safety officers

£33,395

£27,875

£24,446

£36,321

£27,639

£35,816

£26,047

£21,644

£19,523

£24,832

£19,738

£28,191

UK Median

future long-term Skills Strategy for the region and the critical role of EU migrant labour to the economy will not be lost on the Brexit-supporting former MEP. Highlighting the recognised wage differential between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, most starkly recognised in the private sector where salaries are the lowest of all UK regions and almost 20 per cent below the UK private sector average, Dodds asked for the SOL to be designed to meet the skills needs of Northern Ireland taking in to account the lower salary starting point and recommended an “expansive as possible” Northern Ireland SOL list.

NI Median

Inclusion in the SOL list and the 20 per cent salary deduction requirement that comes with it would mean that the salary threshold could be reduced to £20,480 — a figure still out of reach for many of those EU migrants required to fill the lowest paid jobs in Northern Ireland. SOL is the only element of the pointsbased system where there is the flexibility to consider the different occupational needs of Northern Ireland and the other devolved nations within the UK system. However, the SOL is not devolved and so, the Northern Ireland Executive has no power in determining what

Source: UUPEC NI Skills Barometer 2019

occupations are considered in shortage in Northern Ireland. The reality is that the Government’s scheme is ignorant of Northern Ireland’s labour market and its contribution to the economy. At a time when global health crisis is manifesting itself into a deep economic recession, limitations on the skills needed to combat economic downturn will be detrimental. Sectors already deeply damaged by the pandemic response, such as tourism, hospitality, manufacturing and health and social care, now face the prospect of a recruitment crisis. This would undermine any of the supports currently being deployed to rebuild these sectors in Northern Ireland.

25th Annual Northern Ireland Economic Conference 2020 FULL ONLINE CONFERENCE Thursday 3rd December 2020

The Northern Ireland Economic Conference, now in its 25th year, is Northern Ireland’s premier economic

Sponsorship opportunities available

analysis event and is unique in being the only forum that

There are still a small number of available sponsorship

takes a high level look at the performance of, and prospects for the local economy. It is firmly established as the annual autumn ‘summit’ for Northern Ireland’s economic community, including policy makers and business leaders. This is a not to be missed event that comes at a pivotal time for the local economy. A year ago Brexit was likely to have profound implications on

opportunities at this year’s conference. Sponsorship of the annual Northern Ireland Economic Conference is an excellent way for organisations to raise their profile with a key audience of economic decision-makers and senior business leaders. For further details or to discuss how your organisation can benefit from close association with Northern Ireland’s premier economic analysis event, contact Lynda Millar on +44 (0)28 9261 9933.

issues such as trade and employment – and now with the global Covid-19 pandemic, the impact could be even more devastating. This year’s conference will bring

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together a platform of expert speakers who will try to make sense of what the future holds.

More information available soon • www.agendaNi.com/events

Automation: A new normal

economy report

with a Gross Value Added (GVA) uplift of between £44 billion to £52 billion.

As Northern Ireland seeks to recalibrate its approach to economic output following a decade of comparative underperformance and a looming recession, an opportunity exists to prepare for the future impacts and benefits of automation. A new machine age, or the fourth industrial revolution as it is sometimes described, is imminently anticipated as both artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics exhibit growing capabilities. Previously, automation has been highlighted for its potential to improve productivity, an area in which Northern Ireland suffers when compared to its UK counterparts. However, it has also been recognised for its potential to disrupt the current labour market, rendering some jobs obsolete and opening up growth potential in certain sectors. The impact of the pandemic, while still to be fully realised, has brought fresh focus on the need to plan for automation and integrate it into plans for economic recovery and growth. The pandemic’s impact on the labour market will be long-standing. On onehand economic recession will bring about a rise in unemployment across the board, mostly in relation to demand reduction. On the other, the severity of the impact will be more acute in specific sectors as measures remain in place to tackle the virus’s spread. 62

Research by the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) estimates that when initial restrictions were introduced, a third of Northern Ireland’s jobs were vulnerable. As restrictions continue to be eased this figure will fall but with some measures, such as social distancing, set to be a part of the ‘new normal’, threats to jobs remain. The need for re-shaped workplaces and an emphasis on up-skilling or re-skilling many of those undertaking jobs most at risk or those newly entering the labour market is recognised in order to combat the economic decline. Both are features of recommendations recently delivered to the Department for the Economy as it looks to deliver a new long-term Skills Strategy for Northern Ireland. Interestingly, the reshaping of workplaces through new skills and tasks is a major feature of the impact of automation. Although measured in an economic context that did not include Covid-19 as an economic factor, the UUEPC estimates that up to 100,000 additional jobs could be created in Northern Ireland due to automation,

The extent to which these estimates will hold true, given the changing economic and political climates, remains to be seen. For instance, the report estimates that health and social care professional services may experience the largest net employment gains in Northern Ireland by 2030. Undoubtedly there is a greater political awareness about the need to invest in the transformation of Northern Ireland’s failing health and social care system, which makes an upturn in employment through automation viable, however, not calculated is the toll of the pandemic on the sector and the impact of new immigration measures on workers from the EU set to come in to force in 2021. Automation and technology are recognised as having the potential to correct gender imbalances amidst Northern Ireland’s economic sectors and facilitate an ageing workforce. Additionally, remote and flexible working are means to address regional inequality and reduce Northern Ireland’s high levels of economic inactivity. The pandemic has facilitated far greater levels of remote and flexible working than could have been envisaged in such a short time frame and the advantages of this should now be factored into a future economic road map. Critical to the integration of automation into economic recovery and growth will be the policy context and the levels of investment needed to drive this. For Northern Ireland, this means not only utilising the education system to equip new entrants to the labour market to meet the changing demand but also reskilling existing employees who have seen their job role disappear or change. Research indicates that while there will likely be a high demand for skills in the likes of data analytics, advanced ICT and coding, requirements will also exist for an uplift in ‘soft skills’ in order to capitalise on automation potential, such as problem solving, communication and management. To this end, it is recommended that Northern Ireland initiates a cultural change to facilitate lifelong learning, which will help better equip Northern Ireland’s labour market to capitalised on the opportunities of automation.

How automation has shaped other economies: country profiles Germany Context: Germany, historically a manufacturing-based economy, leads the way in European automation progress. Tailored policies introduced as early as 2006 have seen their robotic and automation industry grow by 10 per cent between 2010 to 2017, most notably I40 which aims to create smart factories by achieving digitalised manufacturing over the next 10 to 15 years. Investment: Germany’s various automation strategies focus heavily on research and development and have recognised the value of wider collaboration amongst industries, policy makers and development. Germany also recognised that skills will need to be adapted to meet the future of work and so a dual system for vocational training was developed in 2005. One in five companies in Germany are now involved in the dual vocational training scheme. I40 has particular aims to increase collaboration amongst industries, policy makers and academics focus heavily on research and development.

economy report

Supports: While supports exist to allow businesses to share ideas and best practices to develop projects in the technological sector, limitations have been recognised in that organisations still face high investments costs, data security concerns, the need to adapt management styles and a limited supply of skilled workers. Uncertainty remains around the development of industrial standards, which has led to a slow uptake of investments in new systems. Lessons for Northern Ireland: Research and development is core to develop automation, however, this must be met with financial support and expertise if new technology is to be successfully implemented. Standardisation for new technologies in Northern Ireland could help avoid the limiting factors in Germany and provide industry confidence to invest in new technology.

UK Context: The UK is currently ranked Number 8 overall in the Automation Readiness Index and in 2017 published the UK Industrial Strategy in preparation for an AI revolution. The Strategy covers more than 200 policies across government but has been met with some criticism because of the scale of funding pledges and overlaps of initiatives. Investment: The 2017 Strategy saw an outline of ambitions to raise the 1.7 per cent of GDP spent on research and development to 2.4 per cent by 2027 and 3 per cent long-term. The Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and a National Retraining Scheme were major features of efforts to prepare the labour market for automation including up-skilling of workers, high-level apprenticeship schemes and work within schools to improve computer science teaching. Supports: Supports for SMEs come in the form of the Business Basics Programme and similar sub programmes which encourage SMEs to test and adopt new technologies. A Scale Up Taskforce and a Scale Up Champion were appointed by government to help understand the difficulties businesses face in scaling up and to provide help to overcome these. Alongside this, a new Industrial Strategy Council was appointed to help oversee the Industrial Strategy. Lessons for Northern Ireland: The wide-ranging scope of the UK’s strategy is an indicator of the extent to which automation will impact and sends a strong message to industry about the future direction. The levels of collaboration have been highlighted as strong foundations for ensuring the long-term policy can withstand political change. Work in the UK to understand the challenges to businesses of technology disruption can serve as guidance to Northern Ireland.

Estonia Context: Upon independence in 1991, Estonia based its economic ambitions on digitalisation and ICT, which has seen it become one of the most digitalised countries in the world. Around 99 per cent of all government services are completed through Estonia. Work on digital has better equipped Estonia to be prepared for automation, with the country currently ranked sixth in the Automation Readiness Index. Investment: Although not directly referencing automation, the Estonian R&D and Innovation Strategy 2014–2020, including targets of 3 per cent of GDP to be invested in research and development and a 9 per cent share of employment in high and medium-high technology sectors, has aims to increase the knowledge economy, which helps to continue the development and leadership of new technology. ICT has been given great prominence in the Estonian education system with 84 per cent of schools providing computer science classes. Additionally, the Estonian Lifelong Learning Strategy 2020 aims to encourage lifelong learning for adults aged 25–64, the Estonian government has a target in place to have a 20 per cent participation rate in education and training by 2020, compared to the EU average of 10.9 per cent. Supports: A low wage labour market in Estonia has meant a much smaller appetite from businesses for automation investment but funding has been made available for companies to test new technology. The small market in Estonia means that company’s seeking to grow are looking outwardly and hoping to export high-technology and service goods. There are also schemes to attract skilled immigrants to ensure fresh innovation in the market. Lessons for Northern Ireland: Citizen support and trust for digital processes is built on strong data security. When asking industry to switch to new procedure and technologies, Northern Ireland must consider the importance of strong data security.

Country profiles taken from information within the UUEPC’s’ Intelligent futures: Working with automation & digitisation to deliver sustainable employment and growth’ report published in December 2019.

FDI increase under threat

economy report

While Northern Ireland appears to be performing well in relation to foreign direct investment attraction and associated jobs, over 40 per cent of new FDI projects into Northern Ireland came from the European Union in the past five years, including over 3,500 new jobs from EU projects. Recent statistics released by the UK Government’s Department for International Trade (DIT) in July show that Northern Ireland’s attraction of FDI projects for 2019–20 was proportionally greater than the UK average over the year, as was its increase in FDI jobs. Increasing the attraction of FDI into Northern Ireland has been identified as a key driver of economic growth, however, the detrimental potential of Brexit uncertainty and potential trade barriers have been frequently cited as threats to current FDI levels and future attractiveness. The Department for the Economy (DfE) published Northern Ireland specific data from the DIT’s figures which outline a 14 per cent increase in FDI projects (40) between 2018–19 and 2019–20, larger than the 4 per cent increase recorded for the UK as a whole.

The increase of FDI projects was matched with a 59 per cent increase in new FDI jobs (2,351) from 2018–19 to 2019–20, which was in contrast to the 3 per cent decrease in new FDI jobs into the UK as a whole. However, it’s worth noting that Northern Ireland accounts for just 2 per cent of UK FDI projects and 4 per cent of UK FDI jobs. For comparison, in the same timeframe Scotland had 121 FDI projects and created 2,946 new FDI jobs compared to Northern Ireland’s 40 FDI projects and 2,351 new FDI jobs. Wales had 62 projects and 2,736 new jobs. Outside of London, England had 933 projects and 26,179 new jobs. Individually, London attracted 638 projects and 12,989 new jobs. Looking longer-term, the figures also show that over the five-year period between 2015–16 and 2019–20 there were 170 new FDI projects into

Northern Ireland, 70 of which came from the EU (41 per cent). These projects created some 8,767 new jobs, 3,532 of which were from EU projects (40 per cent). Future barriers to this level of investment would be damaging to economic growth ambitions. Additionally, the figures, by their nature, do not fully reflect the impact of Brexit uncertainty as it is impossible to measure decisions not taken or delayed by foreign investors for Northern Ireland as a result. Tied to this is the fact that Northern Ireland is likely to see a reduction in FDI levels as a result of the economic impact of the pandemic. The figures, which cover up to April, are not reflective of the changing economic landscapes for business both in Northern Ireland and more globally.

Energy report

Sponsored

energy report

Natural gas infrastructure: The journey to a low carbon future move from if and when, to the more important question of how decarbonisation can be realised. This will undoubtedly be a focus of the new Northern Ireland energy strategy, as it seeks to identify how we play our part in meeting wider UK targets and create a lower carbon future for Northern Ireland. Unlike many region specific challenges that Northern Ireland has faced in the past, the decarbonisation challenge is being shared with many countries across the world and in the last number of years, we have seen significant investments being made in energy trials across various sectors that have created considerable momentum and increased profile globally to the extent that decarbonisation is very much at the top of most political agendas. The Energy Strategy, due for release in Autumn 2021 should be well placed to offer a Northern Ireland tailored strategy that builds on global learning but equally understands the opportunity for immediate action and harnesses the indigenous resources we have available.

Jonathan Martindale, Director of Business Development.

They say that necessity is the mother of invention and nothing demonstrates that more powerfully in recent times than the decisions that have been taken and the changes that have been made as a result of the Covid19 pandemic, writes Phoenix’s Director of Business Development Jonathan Martindale. With more time being spent at home and staycations the popular holiday choice, there is a greater focus on the environment around us, and with changed transport and energy user habits resulting in significant carbon reductions globally since the outbreak of Covid-19, we have perhaps seen what 66

the authors of a recent report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air meant by “a glimpse of the cleaner, healthier, environment that is possible”. The UK Government’s announcement to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 has seen the agenda

As the discussion in Northern Ireland has evolved through the consultation platforms facilitated by the Department, the most notable shift recently has been the increased level of confidence that while Northern Ireland’s energy transition will be influenced by neighbouring strategies, the region is well placed to carve out a specific set of solutions that recognise the existing energy landscape.

Energy efficiency Energy efficiency is at the heart of any low carbon economy. With a large proportion of homes with low energy efficiency ratings locally, there is a need to design and deliver an ambitious energy efficiency programme across existing housing stock and new build regulations. This must be coupled with an educational engagement campaign to influence consumer behaviour, demonstrating the financial and environmental benefits of energy efficiency measures that creates a

culture of personal responsibility for efficiency in the areas each consumer can control.

energy report

Natural gas consumers have a head start here, with high efficiency control and systems installed with all new gas connections, enabling Northern Ireland’s natural gas consumers to use on average 17 per cent less energy than their Great Britain counterparts.

Natural gas infrastructure The natural gas network in Northern Ireland is relatively new. By the end of the current GD17 Regulatory Price Control (2022) the three gas distribution network operators will have made natural gas available to circa 550,000 properties locally, around 70 per cent of properties. Of those with natural gas availability, it is estimated that 231,000 of these properties will remain unconnected to the network, most continuing to use home heating oil. With natural gas an inherently carbon cleaner fuel than oil, this presents an immediate opportunity for carbon savings, as each property converting from an older oil boiler to a natural gas central heating system with associated controls reduces their carbon footprint by up to 50 per cent. This offers considerable carbon savings while providing increased lifestyle and convenience benefits with minimal investment and no consumer behaviour change. If each of the 231,000 consumers with natural gas available connected to the network, natural gas users would prevent 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 being released into the atmosphere each year, a significant saving, making immediate in-roads to Northern Ireland’s decarbonisation challenge. With ambitions across the natural gas industry to further improve natural gas’s greener credentials, there can be real confidence for consumers that the network they connect to now will be the network that transports a greener form of fuel to their homes in the future.

A renewable future: Greening the natural gas network Northern Ireland has risen to the challenge of delivering 40 per cent renewable electricity in advance of its

2020 target, thanks to technological advances that have harnessed the indigenous wind resources in abundant availability. Yet there is another indigenous renewable energy resource, that with supportive policy, could instantly support the greening of the natural gas network while helping to solve a further local decarbonisation challenge. When organic matter is processed at an Anaerobic Digestor (AD) plant, biogas is produced and can be captured. This biogas can be upgraded to biomethane and then injected into the natural gas infrastructure, blending safely with existing natural gas. This blended mix can be accommodated without any change to the natural gas infrastructure or consumer appliances. Already underway in the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain, and with more than 50 active AD plants in Northern Ireland, this is a circular process that recycles waste from food manufacturing, processing, farming and households. Utilising biomethane in this way also diverts methane (28 times more pollutant than CO2) from entering the atmosphere, helping offset emissions for the agricultural sector.

mechanism to drive forward the waste to energy solution. Consequently, key waste streams in Northern Ireland are not being disposed of in a way that recovers their significant energy potential. The Energy Strategy review must act as an enabler to springboard this workstream and in particular recognise the superior efficiencies associated with the use of organic waste for biomethane injection into the natural gas network. Locally, we have partnered with Queen’s University Belfast and the AD industry to quantify the waste to energy opportunity that exists locally, with existing reports suggesting that up to 30 per cent of Northern Ireland’s heat demand could be served through this already proven energy generating process. As with the maximisation of the natural gas network, biomethane injection is another intervention which can begin making immediate inroads in local carbon reduction.

Hydrogen It is impossible to talk about net carbon zero goals without looking at the role

The Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation (NIRO) supported AD plants with renewable electric generation, however, the scheme closed for new applications in 2017, removing the 67

energy report

“Northern Ireland has an opportunity to embrace renewable gas solutions, that would be capable of delivering a significant percentage of its total heat demand from the rich indigenous opportunities that are available locally and in turn realising the added benefits of being increasingly self-sufficient.” hydrogen will play. The most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen, which does not emit CO2 and does not pollute the air when used, can be used as a feedstock, fuel or energy carrier and storage, with many possible applications across domestic, industrial, transport and power. It’s perhaps no surprise therefore that countries right across the world to include the UK, Germany, South Korea and France are investing heavily in both blue and green hydrogen innovation to ensure that it plays an integral role in their respective green economies. The H21 Leeds City Gate study was a significant piece of work that demonstrated the technical feasibility of repurposing the existing gas distribution network for hydrogen. The benefits of this for energy users is considerable. With its abundance of natural wind resources there is a significant opportunity for Northern Ireland to develop a green hydrogen economy, utilising our natural resources, entrepreneurial spirit and size and scale to take the lead in developing hydrogen energy solutions. Green hydrogen can be produced from renewable electricity through the electrolysis of water (in an electrolyser). This not only enables us to produce a carbon free fuel source, it also ensures the best use of renewable electricity, an increasing percentage of which is curtailed or constrained as it cannot be stored or utilised through the system at certain times. This can then be utilised then to maximise the efficiency of our existing energy infrastructure and in turn provide a much sought-after commodity. The production of green hydrogen at source, distributed in existing gas network negates the need for bespoke energy solutions and expensive retrofit 68

adaptations for energy users. The £1 billion natural gas infrastructure in Northern Ireland is equipped to accommodate hydrogen as a fuel and provides an infrastructure for storage that can meet the interseasonal demand needed to accommodate Northern Ireland’s winter energy needs. This would not be first time that repurposing of an energy distribution asset has taken place in the UK, in the 1960s the gas network was successfully converted from ‘Towns Gas’ to natural gas with minimal impact to end users. In Northern Ireland this would provide a zero-carbon solution for around 70 per cent of homes that have access to natural gas infrastructure. An additional attraction of green hydrogen production that is more relevant locally is that the process also produces O2 which can be used to help alleviate chronic capacity constraints at local Waste Water Treatment Works. The introduction of an oxygenation process into these treatment works would alleviate the capacity constraints without deployment of major works that would require significant investment. Whilst many of the recent headlines celebrate the credential of green hydrogen it is widely recognised that the hydrogen economy will require both blue and green hydrogen solutions. Blue hydrogen is produced from natural gas, with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology scooping up the resulting CO2. The UK Government’s climate advisers, in their annual report released recently, backed blue hydrogen as a means to help scale-up the hydrogen economy quickly, in tandem with, not instead of, the development of green hydrogen. Equinor is leading a project to develop one of the UK’s, and the world’s, first atscale facilities to produce hydrogen from

natural gas in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The project, called Hydrogen to Humber Saltend provides the beginnings of a decarbonised industrial cluster in the Humber region, the UK’s largest by emissions. Recognising that the need is now very much here and that decarbonisation is a shared global challenge that requires bespoke local solutions, Northern Ireland has an opportunity to embrace renewable gas solutions, that would be capable of delivering a significant percentage of its total heat demand from the rich indigenous opportunities that are available locally and in turn realising the added benefits of being increasingly selfsufficient.

Optimism The delivery of net-zero is a challenge, but one that presents huge opportunities. Never before has there been such a united focus across policy, industry, academic and society to drive fundamental change for the better. Whilst the energy strategy release in Autumn 2021 will play a pivotal role in propelling projects to the next stage of delivery there is no doubt that collaboration will be critical to our success in becoming a net zero carbon society. Realising there is no one solution to carbon reduction will be key, and academia, industry and energy companies must work together to provide a range of solutions to continue to meet energy users’ needs in a net zero carbon future. It would appear that the old adage of necessity being the mother of all invention, continues to shine through and as Northern Ireland’s society have recognised the need, its over to industry to continue providing the solutions to guide all energy users through what will inevitably be a be a number of energy transition phases.

Phoenix Natural Gas Ltd. T: 03454 55 55 55 W: www.phoenixnaturalgas.com

29th Sep

Date for your diary!

Northern Ireland Energy Forum 2020 Northern Ireland’s major annual energy conference...

Tuesday 29th September 2020 Full online conference The Northern Ireland Energy Forum, now in its 18th year, has firmly established itself as the only major annual conference for Northern Ireland’s energy sector – it is a not to be missed event for anyone with an eye on the local energy industry. This year and for one year only, the Northern Ireland Energy Forum will be delivered to you virtually, to enable your safe participation from either your office or home. As always, the Forum will bring together a top line up of speakers to focus on the most important aspects of energy policy and latest developments from across the sector.

Speakers include: Conference sponsor

2020 discussion topics •

Energy policy priorities for Northern Ireland

•

A new Strategic Energy Framework for Northern Ireland

•

The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the energy sector

•

Brexit and its potential impact on energy markets

•

Decarbonising Northern Ireland’s energy networks

•

Moving towards the digital utility

•

The Future Role of Gas (FRoG)

•

Smart energy grids

•

The next phase of renewable energy development

•

What will the future energy mix look like?

Diane Dodds MLA, Minister

Laura Sandys, Chair, Expert

for the Economy

Panel on the Future of Energy

Joe Reynolds, Director of

Paul Stapleton, Managing

Energy Markets and European

Director, NIE Networks

Relations, Department for the Economy Aoife Foley, Reader (Associate Professor), Queen’s Tanya Hedley, Director of

University Belfast

Networks, Utility Regulator Steven Agnew, Manager, Richard Murphy, Head of

Northern Ireland Renewables

Energy & Natural Resources

Industry Group (NIRIG)

Northern Ireland, Pinsent Masons LLP

Sponsorship opportunities available There are still a number of sponsorship opportunities available at this conference. This is an excellent way for organisations to raise their profile with a key audience of senior decision makers from across Northern Ireland’s energy sector. For further information on the packages remaining and speaking opportunities at the event call Owen McQuade on +44 (0)28 9261 9933.

How to register Online www.nienergyforum.agendani.com

By telephone +44 (0)28 9261 9933

By email registration@agendaNi.com

energy report

A new Energy Strategy: Delivering policy options Thomas Byrne, Director of Energy Strategy in the Department for the Economy (DfE) talks to David Whelan about the progress on delivering a long-term Energy Strategy for Northern Ireland to meet a target of net zero carbon by 2050. Recognised as crucial to delivering the decarbonisation of Northern Ireland’s energy system, work to produce a forward-looking policy pathway for energy has been being progressed, even during the absence of a Northern Ireland Executive, up until January. Urgency in this regard has been driven by the scale of change that has occurred since the publication of the existing energy policy in the form of the 2010 Strategic Energy Framework, not least the Paris Agreement and by the governments in both Westminster and Dublin declaring climate emergencies. While many might see the task of creating a framework for delivering a zero carbon economy in Northern Ireland by 2050 daunting, Byrne instead views the job in front of him as “exciting”. “We have a great opportunity, not just 70

to help guide the future decarbonisation of the energy sector to meet net zero by 2050 but also to try and grow the economy using the energy sector through a green recovery,” says Byrne. Byrne has highlighted March 2021 as a key month for the Department, when they are aiming to publish an options consultation setting out what they believe are the viable routes to meeting some of the objectives set to be included in a future Energy Strategy. The foundation for the creation of the future strategy was a call for evidence issued by the Department in December 2019, which Byrne suggests was met with a high number of responses but also a range of responses that extended outside of the energy industry. The Department published a detailed summary report on the call for evidence

in June and Byrne outlines that the focus has now turned to delivering policy options. “Using the information we received through the call for evidence, alongside the knowledge and expertise that we have in Northern Ireland and the additional research that we are currently gathering, we aim to arrive at robust scenarios and a roadmap for the future of energy,” he explains. Explaining the importance that these future options are sculpted by continued stakeholder input and not by department officials alone, Byrne outlines the creation of five working groups, each focussed on the specific topics of: heat, power, transport, consumers and energy efficiency. Over 70 stakeholders are represented across the five groups, representing some 30 organisations.

“This continues to be about evidence and analysing that evidence to deliver viable policy options,” Byrne explains.

energy report

“The call for evidence delivered a lot of information and we recognise that the decisions we are taking are big decisions across 30 years. So, it’s really important that we get them right. There are some decisions that we can’t take today about the future but we can create pathways to move forward. “The range of issues to be considered is huge and so what we have done, through the five working groups, is identify four or five key priorities where options have been identified and we’re now developing the evidence behind those options, to shape policy that can be utilised by the strategy.” Byrne has moved to ensure that the development of the strategy remains transparent and accessible on a wider basis, not just to those stakeholders involved in the working group. The Department is publishing a monthly ebulletin, focusing on the five workstreams identified for those groups. “That’s our way of keeping in touch with the outside world, not disappearing for nine months and coming up with a strategy. Being open, transparent and visible in how we are shaping policy options is very important and we’ll continue to do this up until the options consultation, while also publishing additional research we are taking forward,” he states. Byrne identifies the scale of the change needed as the biggest challenge facing the delivery of an Energy Strategy by the end of 2021. “These are big objectives. Big changes will be needed to meet a net zero target, including the growth of a green economy which will require changing the nature of our current economy and how it works. It’s important to stress that this is not the energy industry’s strategy but will be for the whole of Northern Ireland.” The Director outlines that given the scale of change needed, mechanisms have been devised to ensure that the strategy, when completed, does not become inflexible. “We have to consider the impact of these decisions on consumers, on citizens and the behavioural changes that we need to bring forward. However, we also recognise that in bringing forward this scale of policy

work in such a short period of time, we can ensure that we don’t just write a strategy and that’s it. It needs to be a living document, set up with five-year checkpoints. We are creating a roadmap to 2050, which will set out those priority actions that need to be taken forward in the next five to 10 years, however, it doesn’t stop here, it will keep being evaluated and updated.”

Power Northern Ireland’s success in decarbonisation to date has largely occurred in relation to power. Recent statistics show that 47 per cent of electricity consumption is coming from renewables, the vast majority of which is from onshore wind. Some concerns have been raised that future decarbonisation in relation to power will be much more difficult than progress already made and has been suggested that the areas of heat and transport could provide bigger wins. However, Byrne is of the opinion that progress to date puts the power sector “in a good place to drive the future of decarbonisation as well”. “That can probably happen at a quicker pace than other sectors, where more heavy lifting will be needed in the early stages,” he explains. “Fifteen years ago, we had 3 per cent of our electricity consumption from renewables and it’s remarkable that we’ve moved to 47 per cent in such a short space of time. “The state of the technologies and the costs associated with them are different

now. We’ve seen the cost of renewable technologies come down to where they are competitive with fossil fuels and we’ve seen renewables in the market be able to set effectively zero prices. “It’s a really strong place for the future decarbonisation and the challenge for us is to get the policy environment right to make sure that happens.” Recognisably, a driving force behind the increase in renewable generation from onshore wind was the Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation (NIRO), the main support scheme for encouraging increased renewable electricity generation, which closed in 2017. Quizzed on whether similar schemes will be the basis for ensuring the uptake of new renewable technologies, Byrne says: “One of the five workstreams identified is on routes to market but it’s not just about a support scheme. It’s the entire policy environment that we put in place, whether that’s around the grid or planning etc. The first step that is needed is the policy ambition, so, certainly support schemes will be something looked at through the working group but it won’t be the only thing because there is an awful lot more to it.” Another barrier to decarbonisation is the cost associated with rolling out new technologies and suitable infrastructure to move away from the use of fossil fuels. Given the likelihood of restricted budgets following the economic impact 4 of the pandemic, ensuring that the 71

Energy Strategy is prudent to the economic climate is crucial. Byrne agrees that the strategy needs to have a focus on costs but makes the point that increasing levels of renewables shouldn’t be always regarded as the most expensive option.

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“Staying with power as an example, the investments that we have made in renewables have lowered the costs of established technologies to where they are now as competitive, if not cheaper than fossil fuels. It isn’t necessarily true that in every area bringing forward renewables or taking different approaches will be more costly,” he says. “However, a number of areas are going to require major investment but I think climate change is recognised as a priority across the Executive. “The Energy Strategy needs to take a close look at costs and we’re not looking at policies just in terms of their ambition and what they can deliver but also the potential implications for consumers and for taxpayers. That’s why the focus remains on evidence and ensuring that the options are effective.” The Director is aware that investments will not take a ‘one size fits all’ approach and will require a variety of solutions. “There won’t be one answer. For

example, when we look at heat, the right solution for decarbonisation will be different depending on a range of factors such as grid access and building type. It’s about ensuring we get the right policy options for different scenarios and that these are cost effective.”

renewables. But, that wouldn’t be the only solution as not everyone has gas and that wouldn’t decarbonise heat for us. What we are looking at are complimentary approaches to tackle heat decarbonisation.”

Byrne emphasises that the long-term nature of the strategy will require constant monitoring and foresight beyond the established technologies such as onshore wind and solar.

Byrne is quick to stress that the focus of policy options will extend beyond the three main energy sector of heat, transport and power, highlighting that the EU’s Clean Energy Package’s ambition to see the citizen put at the heart of the future of energy will be crucial to an effective energy transition.

“We need to be looking to the future at those new potential sources that are emerging. Things like hydrogen, biomethane and various technologies are entering the mix. Those technologies are maybe not ‘market ready’ currently but could be in the position of offshore wind 10 to 15 years ago and will in the future drive decarbonisation in a cost-effective way. So, it’s not about picking winners but putting in place a policy environment to bring forward a range of technologies that are right, depending on what the problem is that we need to solve,” he adds. “A good example is the modern gas infrastructure which is currently being extended across Northern Ireland. One of the key themes of the working group looking at heat is looking at what goes into that gas infrastructure and how the network would be developed to use

Consumers

“People and how they interact with the energy system, how they themselves can participate and how they can be protected is a critical factor in the transition,” he sates. “It will not be delivered by energy companies making decision for consumers and we recognise that consumers need to be informed and empowered. “Our dedicated theme on consumers has facilitated good engagement thus far and we will be taking forward a work programme to engage further with consumers and to test some of our policy issues and install confidence. “This isn’t just about the technologies but about behaviours and how you change those. That’s going to be a key element of the Energy Strategy.”

Energy Strategy Timeline CALL FOR EVIDENCE PUBLISHED

e-Bulle n: Power theme Future of renewables Expert panel introduc on CALL FOR EVIDENCE CLOSED

December 2019

JanuaryMarch 2020

April 2020

Stakeholder engagement & workshops

June 2020

July 2020

August 2020

September 2020

e-Bulle n: Energy eﬃciency theme Future of energy eﬃciency

October 2020

ENERGY STRATEGY OPTIONS CONSULTATION Review of energy strategies & sustainable energy authori es FINAL ENERGY STRATEGY

e-Bulle n: Hydrogen Carbon capture

e-Bulle n: Heat theme Energy governance

CALL FOR EVIDENCE SUMMARY REPORT Workshop Summary Report Individual Responses published e-Bulle n: Overview of Call for Evidence & Next Steps

e-Bulle n: Consumer theme Demand-side ﬂexibility

November 2020

December 2020

January 2021

e-Bulle n: Clean growth Just transi on Business & industrial energy

e-Bulle n: Transport theme Energy modelling

February 2021

March 2021

April-June 2021

November 2021

Consulta on period

e-Bulle n: Energy innova on Energy research base Financing the transi on

Energy Saving Trust: Part of the positive change •

slightly better levels of average home energy efficiency than other parts of the UK put Northern Ireland in a good place to be able to drive forward energy efficiency improvements to its housing stock.

So, what would we recommend? Some of the suggestions made in our Energy Strategy consultation response centred around home energy efficiency and fuel poverty:

Energy Saving Trust is an independent organisation dedicated to promoting energy efficiency, low carbon transport and sustainable energy. We aim to address the climate emergency and deliver the wider benefits of clean energy as we transition to net zero. We empower householders to make better choices, deliver transformative programmes for governments and support businesses with strategy, research and assurance, enabling everyone to play their part in building a sustainable future. We are the Programme Administrator, on behalf of the Utility Regulator, of the Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme (NISEP) which puts us at the heart of the energy efficiency challenges in Northern Ireland and, with our UK and international perspective, enables us to contribute ideas and solutions for the future. We responded to the recent Department for the Economy (DfE) Energy Strategy consultation with a focus on home energy efficiency. It’s clear that the Executive wants to make up for lost time and is in the process of formulating a wide-ranging strategy that looks promising in its scope and ambition and offers an excellent opportunity to refocus priorities and tackle the decarbonisation challenge. Northern Ireland has some unique characteristics that will need to be addressed as part of the transition to net zero heat:

•

the emerging gas grid and plans for its continued expansion. Natural gas is not a low carbon or renewable fuel and as such does not have a role to play in the medium-long term. The potential to use hydrogen in the gas grid remains uncertain and is far from being deployable at scale. Heat pumps offer a proven and effective alternative to on and off-gas grid homes;

•

the high reliance of oil as a heating fuel. Again, oil is not sustainable. However, given that 68 per cent of all domestic homes use oil, there will need to be a carefully managed transition away from oil towards alternatives such as renewable heating;

•

relatively high levels of fuel poverty and the transient nature of fuel poverty, particularly in Northern Ireland where the reliance on oil for heating leaves consumers vulnerable to the volatility of oil prices;

•

lower levels of spend on energy efficiency than some other parts of the UK. The thinktank E3G estimated at the end of 2017 that government spending on energy efficiency support, per person, was three times higher in Northern Ireland than in England but was still less than Scotland; and

•

establishing a new EPC target for fuel poor homes;

•

reach the most vulnerable households through tailored inhome engagement and advice;

•

ensure hardest to improve homes have access to financial support to improve energy efficiency; and

•

undertake heat pumps trials to show the benefits and suitability of heat pumps within domestic settings.

The key to reaching net zero across Northern Ireland is complex and needs to take into consideration the unique characteristics of the country, but as a minimum we need to incentivise households to invest in off-gas, low carbon heating and support low income and vulnerable households to access the health and financial benefits of warm and efficiently heated homes. There will be many challenges on the way, but Energy Saving Trust will continue to be part of the positive change.

Angela Gracey-Roger Programme Manager Energy Saving Trust E: angela.gracey-roger@est.org.uk W: www.energysavingtrust.org.uk

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Energy and the economy The number of energy sector enterprises in Northern Ireland has more than trebled in the last decade, representing the largest percentage increase of all UK regions, however, annual average turnover of the low carbon and renewable energy sector still remains well below that of its UK counterparts. efficient production sub-group but this only made up around one third of annual turnover. By comparison, the low carbon electricity group also made up around one third of turnover but only an estimated 13 per cent of the average employees in the sector (see Figure 1).

employment sub-group was for lowemission vehicles (1,600), a group not accounted for in relation to turnover, given the small number of businesses operating in the sector (see Figure 4).

Compared to England, Scotland and Wales, Northern Ireland’s annual turnover and number of employees for the sector was the lowest, around half of the same figures for Wales, the second lowest performer.

Between 2016 to 2018, annual turnover was highest in the energy efficient products sub-group (£317 million). Coupled with low carbon electricity (£284 million), these two sub-groups were the largest contributor to overall turnover by some distance, with the next highest contributing sub-group being low carbon heat at just £51 million.

Associated with Northern Ireland’s estimated annual average turnover was 5,900 FTE jobs, compared to 11,500 in Wales, 23,100 in Scotland and 178,200 in England. Around half of these jobs in Northern Ireland related to the energy

Interestingly, annual turnover did not directly correspond to FTE figures. Although energy efficient products, the highest sub-group for turnover, did generate the greatest number of employees (2,900), the next biggest

Figures produced by NISRA outline a three and a half-fold increase in energy sector enterprises from 2010 to 2017. This data is aggregated using the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC), which does not lend itself to measuring non-traditional or new sectors, such as the renewable energy sector and low carbon economy and included in the growth figures are, for example, electricity generation from fossil fuelbased plants. However, it should be recognised that as well as a growth in enterprises, some of those not classified as within the low carbon and renewable electricity sector, are

Between 2016 to 2018, low carbon and renewable energy activity generated an estimated £1 billion annual average turnover, representing little change from the average between 2014 to 2016. Northern Ireland contributed just 2 per cent of the UK’s combined turnover and 2.7 per cent of the UK’s direct full-time equivalent (FTE) employment in relation to low carbon and renewable energy.

Energy sector

working to diversify their operations against an overarching ambition of decarbonisation.

2016-18

2014-16

2015-17

2016-18

41.7

42.1

44.2

215,900

210,600

218,600

England

32.9

33.3

34.9

175,800

171,000

178,200

Scotland

5.8

6.1

23,400

23,000

23,100

Wales

2.1

11,000

11,100

11,500

0.9

5,700

5,500

5,900

Northern Ireland

Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, ONS

Figure 2: Energy enterprises in Northern Ireland 2010 to 2019: Electric power generation, transmission and distribution 500

The Department for the Economy estimates that the energy sector accounts for around 2 per cent of total GVA in each year from 2013 to 2018. GVA in relation to the sub-sector of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply was between four to five times higher between 2014 and 2018 than the all sectors average. In 2018, the GVA per head for the subsector was 18 times higher than for the GVA per head average for the UK as a whole, compared to a GVA per head figure for all sectors being 19 per cent

460

470

2018

2019

450 375

400 350

315

300 225

250 195 200 125

150 100 50

65 30

2010

2011

0 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, ONS

Figure 3: Energy Sector Enterprises in devolved regions 2010-2019

Energy employment In 2017, some 3,860 employee jobs existed in the energy sector in Northern Ireland, 0.5 per cent of all employee jobs. The majority of energy sector jobs are concentrated in the sub-sectors of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (47 per cent) and water collection, treatment and supply (32 per cent). In 2017, Northern Ireland had the lowest proportion of employee jobs in the energy sector compared to England, Scotland, and Wales. Wales had more than twice as many energy sector employees and Scotland had five times as much. (see Figure 4)

Employees (FTE)

2015-17

Enterprises

Northern Ireland had the largest percentage increase in the number of energy sector enterprises from 2010 to 2019 (up 256 per cent), almost double the increases in England, Scotland, and Wales. In 2010, Northern Ireland had the lowest number of energy enterprises as a percentage of all enterprises (0.4 per cent), below the UK average of 0.6 per cent. However, by 2019 Northern Ireland had a higher number of energy sector enterprises as a percentage of all enterprises (1.1 per cent) than England and Wales (both 0.9 per cent) and was above the UK average (1 per cent) (see Figure 3).

Turnover (ÂŁbillion) 2014-16

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The SIC division of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply was the main driver of the increase in enterprises, rising from 35 in 2010 to 490 in 2019. Almost all (96 per cent) of enterprises in this sector related to electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, a fifteenfold increase from 2010, and is recognised as coinciding with the large growth of renewable electricity producers (see Figure 2).

Figure 1: LCRE direct activity key statistics by UK country: annual average turnover and full-time equivalent (FTE) Employment, 2014-2016, 2015-2017 and 2016-2018

4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Scotland

Wa les 2010

Northern Ireland

2019

Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, ONS

Figure 4: Northern Ireland annual average direct activity: LCRE turnover and FTE employment by group 2016-2018 LCRE by group

Turnover (ÂŁmillion)

Employees (FTE)

284

800

300

< 200

314

2,900

Low carbon services

<200

Low emission vehicles

1,600

Low carbon electricty Low carbon heat Energy from waste and Energy efficient products

Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register, ONS 75

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The renewable options With a new Energy Strategy set to follow the UK Governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lead on achieving net zero carbon by 2050, big decisions will be required on how to support and progress existing and new forms of renewables. 76

Although a devolved matter (excluding nuclear power), energy policy in Northern Ireland will be shaped by the commitments already made by both the UK and the Republic of Ireland in relation to decarbonisation targets to 2030 and 2050. Northern Ireland’s successes in comfortably meeting a 40 per cent target of electricity generation from renewables by 2020 (46.8 per cent from April 2019 to March 2020) is often cited as evidence of its potential to meet the future full decarbonisation of energy but such confidence fails to recognise the scale of the requirements to not only decarbonise the power system but also address the little progress that has been made in relation to transport and heat, as well as the high levels of carbon emissions from agriculture.

meaning more challenging cost recovery, and its population spread, which has seen a retention of oil heating in homes above other UK regions. The majority of Northern Ireland’s increased use of renewables has been in relation to electricity, most specifically from onshore wind. The rise in renewable electricity generation from onshore wind was driven by the Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation (NIRO) scheme, which closed to all technologies in 2017. Almost 80 per cent of developments on the scheme were for onshore wind, with the next most popular (around 16 per cent) coming from solar.

UK-wide carbon emissions and renewables take account of Northern Ireland’s policies and developments, despite the devolved nature of the policies. Northern Ireland accounts for roughly 4 per cent of all UK carbon emissions targets. Therefore, policy by the Department for the Economy will have to take account of not only Northern Ireland’s own ambition but also compatibility with UK policy and State Aid Approval, as well as the compatibility with the Single Electricity Market.

Research suggests that while new technologies will be needed to drive decarbonisation to net zero, in the coming decades onshore wind and solar are set to continue to dominate renewables deployment. A number of factors, not least greater levels of public objections to onshore wind projects are expected to see the scaling up of microgeneration solar projects, as the technology cheapens to become competitive in price with onshore wind. Another factor to be considered is that many of those existing assets, mostly wind turbines, only have a life expectancy of another 10 years and will either need to be replaced or decommissioned.

Although trying to achieve the same goal as the UK in the same timeframe, it’s recognised that Northern Ireland must tailor its approach to decarbonisation for its own unique challenges, most notably its much smaller population size,

The impact of the NIRO scheme in terms of renewable generation levels and how it has influenced the diversity of projects will be a key consideration for the policy options in delivering a future energy strategy for Northern Ireland. However,

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also to be considered will be that the costs of NIRO were spread across all UK customers. It’s unlikely, given the desire to attract private investment into renewable generation for schemes across the UK, that a similar scheme would be on offer. There is a recognition that the decrease in the costs of renewables has lessened the appetite by policymakers to provide subsidies and instead the aim is to deliver a broader range of routes to investment for new projects. The decarbonisation agenda will also need to consider deeply the existing energy system in Northern Ireland. In relation to electricity, generation from heat is dominated by gas, which makes up about 46 per cent of energy generated. Coal generation still comprises 13 per cent of installed capacity in Northern Ireland, although SONI have signalled their intention to cease coal-fired generation by 2024. A recent analysis commissioned by the Department for the Economy by Cornwall Insight, which focussed on the future of renewables in Northern Ireland, recently stated: “Considering the quality of wind resource availability in Northern Ireland, it is widely expected that onshore wind will continue to be the primary source of renewable electricity to 2030 and beyond with falling costs making it increasingly competitive with conventional generation sources, including CCGT plants, which will likely be the lowest cost fossil fuel generation in Northern Ireland in that timeframe.” However, it’s also recognised that public objections to increased levels of onshore wind infrastructure has caused greater levels of delays in delivery, which will be factored into any investment decision. Although onshore wind is projected to be the cheapest form of generation out to 2030, Northern Ireland’s electricity network is nearing capacity and that further development will require significant levels of capital investment in the distribution and transmission system. Efficient deployment of greater levels of onshore wind to increase renewable electricity generation will require policy that aligns planning and energy. The report also focussed on the role of existing and upcoming technologies to inform policy options to be considered

4 77

for a future energy strategy.

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Northern Ireland’s coastline has up until now been deemed largely unsuitable for offshore wind, mostly due to the visual and environmental impact it would be deemed to have. While exploration of onshore wind potential will continue, driven by recognised successes in other countries, the five to 10-year timeline associated with development of offshore wind means that it will not play a role in Northern Ireland’s future energy mix for quite some time. Although, research has suggested that up to 300 MW of offshore wind may be operational by 2030. Solar PV has enjoyed significant growth in Northern Ireland from 2 MW in 2011 to 246 MW in 2018 but capacity factors have contributed to the technology largely being deployed as microgeneration units. Now recognised

as a mature technology because of its roll-out on a global scale, cheaper production means that it is likely to form an important part of Northern Ireland’s future energy mix. However, challenges remain. The microgeneration nature of solar PV technologies in Northern Ireland have been highlighted as causing problems for SONI and NIE Networks in relation to stability. There is also concerns that Northern Ireland’s slow uptake of solar PV technology, in a global context, has created a skills and expertise deficit in relation to installation.

Ireland, which are largely farm-based. However, the number of AD plants are increasing in Northern Ireland, where a greater reliance on agriculture than the rest of the UK means greater levels of potential fuel. Biogas can be used for heat and electricity but purification of biogas into biomethane facilitates potential injection into the gas grid or the creation of fuel. To date, Northern Ireland has not established a policy context to outline how AD can be best utilised to meet the future demands.

Biomass accounts for less than 5 per cent of renewable electricity in Northern Ireland. Biomass for generation has largely been through combined heat and power (CHP) plants, which means that locations are determined by requirements for process heat. Again, biomass electricity generation is viewed as a mature technology because of wider use elsewhere in the globe. Biomass is recognised for its potential to supplement or part-decarbonise existing fossil fuel generation. Advocates for greater levels of biomass in Northern Ireland’s energy mix recognise that in comparison to intermittent sources, such as wind and solar, it has a high load factor, provides carbon-neutral back-up capacity and can support the increase of non-synchronous penetration on the system.

In the past, landfill gas was seen as a viable option to utilise the levels of landfill in Northern Ireland, and the methane and CO2 it produces, to generate biogas for power. There are 12 such plants in Northern Ireland totalling 16 MW, however, given efforts to reduce landfill levels in Northern Ireland and a reduction in the disposal of organic material (down 35 per cent since 1995), the deployment of large-scale landfill gas is highly unlikely.

However, the sustainability of biomass technology remains under scrutiny because of concerns around fuel availability. Given that only 4 per cent of Northern Ireland’s land is under forest, options would need to be explored to increase supply, such as through fast rotation crops. Large scale anaerobic digestion (AD) is as of yet relatively unexplored in Northern Ireland. There are a number of small-scale sites across Northern

As battery prices continue to fall, the installation of storage technology is expected to accelerate in the coming years and facilitate greater efficiencies in managing intermittent renewable generation and manage network constraints. However, storage potential does not lie in battery technology alone. Hydrogen is gaining greater recognition for its storage potential. Currently, the majority of hydrogen in Northern Ireland is being produced from fossil fuel burning. ‘Green’ hydrogen is currently more expensive to produce but estimates suggest that the cost of electrolysis is set to fall by some 70 per cent in the next decade and parity between green and grey hydrogen could be recognised by 2030. If this is the case, then hydrogen and its ability to act as a chemical storage technology could become a much bigger player in Northern Ireland’s energy mix.

Record electricity from renewables levels Rolling 12 month Average % Electricity Consumption from Renewable Sources

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20 nJa

18 nJa

17 Ja

nJa

15 nJa

14 nJa

11 nJa

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Source: NISRA

Renewable Electricity Generation by Type of Generation 4%

3.60%

1.60%

0.60%

April, May and June recorded the lowest monthly consumption volumes over the year and on record, reflecting the economic slowdown brought on by Covid-19.

5.40%

84.80%

Wind

Biogas Landfill Gas

Biomass Other

A total of 7,505 GWh of total electricity was consumed in Northern Ireland for the 12-month period July 2019 to June 2020, 3,577 GWh was generated from renewable sources.

Solar PV Source: NISRA

Northern Ireland has recorded its highest ever levels of electricity consumption from renewables, well above the 40 per cent target set for the end of 2020. The 47.7 per cent of total electricity consumption generated from renewable sources for the year between July 2019 and June 2020 is the highest on record and is 3.6 per cent above the 20182019 record breaking figure. Northern Ireland electricity consumption from renewables has grown from a recorded baseline of 8.6 per cent in the

Ireland of 69.3 per cent. Ten out of the 12 months to June 2020 saw a monthly proportion which exceeded 40 per cent and four of these exceeded 50 per cent.

year to June 2010. The Executiveâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 2010-20 Strategic Energy Framework included a target to achieve 40 per cent of electricity consumption from renewable sources by 2020. February 2020 represented a record high of total electricity consumption in Northern Ireland generated from renewable sources located in Northern

Wind continues to be the dominant source of renewable electricity, with 84.8 per cent of renewable electricity generated from this source. The 84.8 per cent of electricity generated from wind between July 2019 and June 2020 is slightly less that the 85.3 per cent recorded for the previous 12 months. Non-wind renewable generation volumes have substantially increased in recent years. The 544.2 GWh recorded for the 12-month period ending June 2020 is significantly higher than the comparable 149 GWh recorded to June 2015. The current figure for non-wind renewable generation volume is the second highest on record. 79

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Housing Executive helping householders meet energy challenges

Professor Peter Roberts launches the new and refreshed Energy Advice Service with David Polley, Director, Department for Communities; Robert Clements, Manager Housing Executive; Siobhan McCauley, Housing Executiveâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Director of Regional Services; John French, CEO, The Consumer Council; Dr Ian Humphreys, Chief Executive, Keep Northern Ireland Beautiful and; Gemma Cowles, Project Lead, NI Energy Advice.

2020 has proved to be a challenging year for us all. Despite the difficulties we have all had to face, the Housing Executive has continued to work throughout this time to find ways to continue to support residents in Northern Ireland. As the Home Energy Conservation Authority for Northern Ireland, we promote energy efficiency awareness and believe households should get the right energy advice that suits their specific circumstances. As the Covid-19 lockdown period dominated the concerns of local families and restricted movement to the household dwelling itself, everyone had to spend much more time at home than we ever would have done before. Consequently, this led to a major increase in the use of our household amenities; with a subsequent rise in 80

energy and other utility bills for many local families. While working from home looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future, part of the ominous Covid-19 â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;new normalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, our Energy Advice team has been working tirelessly towards finding the best ways that we can help local people save both energy and money.

New NI Energy Advice service launched In August, we officially launched our new and refreshed NI Energy Advice Service, bringing the facility in-house after 20

years of great service by Bryson Energy. Beginning in April as the lockdown began to bite, advice and guidance online was provided to over 700 people over the period of the shutdown. This advice is free, impartial and available to all local householders and assists local families searching for the best ways to conserve energy in their homes and building better budgeting. Initially this advice was provided online through our website, but now a new advice line is in place, extending the service to even more local residents and providing all the necessary guidance on constructive use of energy at home. A live, interactive broadcast marked the launch of the new service and this was streamed to an invited audience of dozens of local stakeholders and community groups. Events speakers included, the Chair and other representatives from the Housing Executive, David Polley, Director, Department for Communities, John French, CEO, The Consumer Council and Dr Ian Humphreys, Chief Executive, Keep Northern Ireland Beautiful.

Siobhan McCauley, the Housing Executive’s Director of Regional Services, opened the event and explained why the organisation now funds and operates the Energy Advice Service.

Shared ambitions and collective effort on climate change Housing Executive Chair, Professor Peter Roberts, told the audience of the importance of this service for Northern Ireland’s progress towards a more environmentally responsible and sustainable future. He stated: “This refreshed service marks an increased emphasis on how we can deal with climate change and how all householders can gain access to a free, local and important source of advice. “It informs us how we can improve the energy efficiency of our homes and how we can gain access to grants and other forms of assistance.” Professor Roberts outlined how funding from the Department for Communities was enabling this advice service to be delivered by the Housing Executive, with close support from the Energy Savings Trust. He also made reference to the “shared ambitions” of the Department for Communities, the Department for the Economy and the Housing Executive to work in partnership with grant providers and wider stakeholders “to deliver a growing service that meets our needs now and in the future”. He stressed: “We want to enhance our environmental performance, meet the carbon challenge and reduce fuel poverty in Northern Ireland. “We need to move to reduce the carbon burden associated with housing and we need to improve our level of resilience to adverse climate events. “This new service, for me, is an essential part of our attempt to combat climate change, to help improve the life of households throughout Northern Ireland, and to make a really big positive contribution to the environment.

energy report

She said: “We have a statutory duty to promote energy efficiency and advice to all Northern Ireland’s householders and with the refreshed NI Energy Advice Service we want to ensure all householders are able to have easy accessible free impartial advice that will help people save money on their energy bills and reduce their carbon footprint.” Professor Peter Roberts and the Housing Executive’s Director of Regional Services, Siobhan McCauley, launching the Energy Advice Line, which will promote energy efficiency awareness and offer advice to households across Northern Ireland.

“We need to move to reduce the carbon burden associated with housing and we need improve our level of resilience to adverse climate events.” “There is no easy, instant solution here, what we need to do is to mobilise a collective effort, which gets us to where we need to be.”

Advice on grants for the home As fuel poverty continues to affect many families in Northern Ireland, one of our key objectives, and that of our sponsoring department, the Department for Communities, is to tackle this.

All of these very positive initiatives have a direct impact on the budgets of local families.

Lasting legacy Usually when new initiatives or services are launched, a flurry of leaflets and marketing materials are produced to raise awareness. We wanted to leave a much longer lasting mark, and so instead, our team

In addition to advice on best energy practice, assistance is also provided on available, local energy efficiency grant funding to assist with future improvements to local homes.

have purchased 400 native Irish saplings

We provide a signposting service to energy efficiency grants providers, such as the Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme (NISEP), the Department for Communities Boiler Replacement Scheme, plus a targeted Affordable Warmth Scheme.

energy efficiency education to their

These grants offer vital help to our vulnerable householders, to older people and those on low income, helping reduce the fuel poverty burden in local homes. We also offer information on improving household insulation, switching energy supplier and even joining your local oil buying club.

which will be planted in local woodlands. When safe to do so, we hope to work with local schools, many of whom are committed to providing inspirational students, to plant these saplings as a lasting legacy and help in the fight to reverse global climate change.

The NI Energy Advice Service is now live. To avail of this free and impartial service, call 0800 111 4455 or contact us through our ‘Get in Touch’ eform on our website nihe.gov.uk or by emailing NIenergyadvice@nihe.gov.uk 81

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Brexit and the all-island electricity market The Withdrawal Agreement’s inclusion of the Northern Ireland Protocol offered some security to the continued operation of the all-island electricity market. However, challenges remain given the levels of interconnectivity with Great Britain. Prior to the Protocol being agreed by the UK and the European Union, concerns were raised about the level of threat to the all-island Single Electricity Market (SEM) in Ireland in the event of a no deal Brexit.

While the need for the SEM’s continued operation after the UK left the EU has been one of the least contentious issues regarding the barriers that would exist between both jurisdictions on the island of Ireland, it had been feared that a cliff

edge exit would collapse the SEM and potentially lead to blackouts and electricity price spikes in Northern Ireland. Contingency plans, including the “flow

over” of power from the Moyle interconnector, were being worked on, according to the UK Government, should a no deal Brexit cause problems with Northern Ireland’s power supply.

Northern Ireland will be part of the UK’s customs territory but will still follow EU customs law and administer the EU’s customs rules at its ports. Northern Ireland will also follow the EU single market regulations on goods. Included in the protocol, Article 9, alongside Annex 4, secures the continuation of Northern Ireland’s participation in the SEM.

The SEM’s ability to continue to operate lies in its separation from the electricity market in Great Britain. However, the SEM does trade with the Great Britain market via interconnection. In 2019, interconnection between the SEM and Great Britain accounted for approximately 6 per cent of Northern Ireland’s generation capacity. From 1 January 2021, the Great British market will no longer be required to transpose and implement new EU directives on SME-related wholesale electricity. It’s likely that any new trading arrangements

does the process by which I-SEM participants, operators and regulators are to feed into the work of these committees. Similarly, the Joint Committee will hold responsibility for adopting new EU directives in relation to the Protocol. If Northern Ireland is to remain aligned to EU wholesale electricity law, it will require implementation of any changes and the addition of newly adopted EU directives to the list already agreed under the Protocol, which will require Joint Committee agreement. Therefore, uncertainty exists in what role Westminster or the Northern Ireland Assembly will have in scrutinising the creation of new EU law in this regard.

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That scenario was avoided following agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol, the element of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that will see Northern Ireland operate under different trading rules to the rest of the UK.

trading and supply of electricity in the event of a no deal Brexit states: “In Northern Ireland, electricity market participants should continue using the SEM processes and arrangements from 1 January. However, market participants should be aware there may be alternative trading arrangements between Great Britain and the SEM.”

While the security offered by the Protocol for the continuation of the SEM’s operations were welcomed, it’s recognised that the interconnected

“In Northern Ireland, electricity market participants should continue using the SEM processes and arrangements from 1 January. However, market participants should be aware there may be alternative trading arrangements between Great Britain and the SEM.” In its technical note, the European Commission interpreted the provisions in Annex 4 as: • Internal energy market rules must apply in Northern Ireland insofar as they concern the generation, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity, trading in wholesale electricity or cross-border exchanges in electricity; and • EU rules concerning industrial emissions and greenhouse gas emissions must apply in respect of the generation of electricity in Northern Ireland. With the UK now just months away from crashing out of the EU without an agreed future trading arrangement, the Protocol’s protection of the SEM will be welcomed, but disruptions are still probable in that the UK. Recent guidance published by the UK Government for those working in the UK electricity market and other stakeholders about changes to the cross-border

would result in less efficient trade. The UK Government, in its command paper published in February 2020, acknowledged that an energy agreement covering both electricity and gas trading with the EU could improve the baseline arrangements being prepared in the event of a no deal. Negotiations between the EU and the UK under the political declaration, which sets out the framework for the future relationship between the two, began in March and would need to be concluded and ratified before the end of the transition period. Despite the existence of the Protocol, a number of matters still require agreement between the EU and UK before the end of the transition period. Most notably, how the UK-EU Joint Committee, which only met for a second time on 12 June 2020, and the related Specialised Committee for Northern Ireland, bodies with oversight functions when implementing the Protocol while ensuring the functioning of the SEM, are to be scrutinised remains unclear, as

nature of wholesale electricity trading, coupled with the UK’s decision to potentially exit the EU’s electricity market, could have negative impacts on security of supply and the costs to consumers. These threats build on existing concerns around the sustainability of the all-island electricity market in the long-term if greater interconnection is not facilitated. It’s estimated that, given falling levels of spare electricity generating capacity in recent years, the Republic of Ireland could face a capacity deficit of over 220 MW by 2024 and Northern Ireland’s capacity margin could be as low as 50 MW in 2025. The North South Interconnector, which has now been in planning for over a decade, would greatly reduce these deficits and is recognised for its potential to improve security of supply and reduce energy costs. However, planning permission has yet to be granted on the Northern Ireland section of the project. 83

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The future of heat The pandemic’s effect of lowering oil prices globally has created further barriers in ambitions to decarbonise heat in Northern Ireland, where some 68 per cent of homes still rely on oil-fired boilers for heating. Northern Ireland is estimated to have the highest levels of fuel poverty in the UK, with 22 per cent of the population spending more than 10 per cent of their household income on heating their homes. For this reason, fuel cost is a major factor in forward planning for decarbonisation in Northern Ireland’s heat sector and cheaper, high-carbon fossil fuels represent a significant challenge to consumer acceptance. Heat accounts for approximately half of Northern Ireland’s total energy consumption and over half of household energy bills are, on average, spent on heating. By 2030, the number of dwellings in Northern Ireland is expected to grow by some 7 per cent, to meet the population increase and existing demand. The dominance of home heating oil as the primary source of heating in 84

Northern Ireland has long been recognised as an area where high levels of decarbonisation can be realised. However, little progress has been made in this regard – beyond the extension of the natural gas pipeline – and no policy support currently exists to incentivise consumers to install newer forms of low-carbon heating.

Transitioning away from the high percentage of home heating oil reliance is the most critical element of any attempts to reduce carbon emissions in heat and to date, although still a fossil fuel, getting consumers to switch to lower carbon-emitting natural gas has been pursued as the most viable form of reducing carbon emissions to date.

In April 2020, home heating oil fell to its lowest price since 2009 because of a falloff in global demand for oil, driven by the pandemic. While a future pathway for decarbonising heat in Northern Ireland has yet to be finalised, it’s recognised that consumer-led change will be required to drive these ambitions. If new or existing technologies and fuel sources continue to be more expensive options for the consumer, then the challenge of achieving a mass transition appears even more difficult.

Close to 300,000 premises are currently connected to the gas network (24 per cent). Natural gas was only introduced into Northern Ireland’s mix in 1996 and the nature of the new and expanding infrastructure means that natural gas, or at least its infrastructure, will have a role to play out to 2050 and potentially beyond. However, net zero carbon cannot be achieved through the use of natural gas unless the carbon is removed through carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS). CCUS would deliver

decarbonisation of natural gas and enable the continued use of the natural gas pipeline but uses of the technology at scale are limited.

The challenges in decarbonising heat are recognisably more complex than that of electricity, where the greatest progress has been made to date in Northern Ireland. Where electricity progress was largely driven by technological developments, new business models and system integration, heat extends to the need for consumer acceptance of changes within their property. Decarbonising the heat sector will require policy which recognises the value of combining heat reduction through energy efficiency investment and reducing the carbon intensity of heat produced. An existing barrier to mapping out progress in this area is an, as of yet, agreed methodology to measure heating load and formally measure the carbon intensity of heat production on an ongoing basis. A future Energy Strategy being developed by the Department for the Economy and set to be published next year has set out ambitions to do this. Electrification of heat is being held up as a viable method for delivering decarbonisation, however, the extent to which this can be effective will depend heavily on the carbon footprint of the electricity used. Heat pumps are the most mature technology in relation to delivering electrified heating and the UK’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) recently assessed that retrofitting a quarter of Northern Ireland’s oil-heated homes to heat pumps to 2030 could bring significant savings of carbon emissions. However, increased demand for electricity has also been highlighted for the potential impact on the network’s generation capacity and the infrastructure investments required.

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Also worth noting is that in Northern Ireland, many homes, especially those in rural areas, have no access to the gas grid and delivering low-carbon technology to meet the demands of these dwellings, which is competitive in price with home heating boilers, will be a difficult ask.

Heat pumps Residential and commercial buildings make up about 15 per cent of Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions, the majority of which is from heating. Heat pumps are a potential solution to those dwellings not being reached by the gas infrastructure, but also for existing dwellings replacing an oil boiler or for new buildings. Notably, heat pumps require a much higher upfront cost at installation but have cheaper running costs in the longer-term. Also, as the gas network expands west, lowcost gas could hamper the attractiveness of heat pumps. This is even the case for new builds. Installation of heat pumps in new dwellings will likely require legislation to enforce higher energy standards. However, even if all new builds are required to have heat pumps, penetration would still be low and so the retrofitting of existing stock will be required. Over 50 per cent of the housing stock in Northern Ireland has an EPC rating of D or lower, meaning that wider rollout of heating pumps will be cost intensive. A further option for policymakers is the use of heat pumps to just those homes outside of the gas market, with biogas replacing natural gas within the network to achieve decarbonisation. Biogas is already being utilised to supplement some natural gas usage in England and Ireland but the regulatory environment in Northern Ireland currently does not facilitate injection.

District heating is also being explored, with recognition that large plants would provide better economies of scale. However, this technology is better suited to urban rather than rural areas. The cost of heat pump technology is expected to reduce, making it more appealing, however, previous efforts to incentivise consumer uptake of heat pumps failed. The Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI), which largely became associated with biomass boilers, was outlined to be the key intervention on heat policy in Northern Ireland when it launched in 2012. Designed to incentivise the use of a number of alternative sustainable heat technologies, little demand was evident for heat pumps. The scheme damaged ambitions for heat decarbonisation because of the significant costs run up against flaws in the tariffs available to biomass users accredited to the Non-Domestic RHI scheme. Unsurprisingly, the scheme did not deliver the targeted outcomes, but no new support scheme has yet been identified. Efforts to decarbonise heat through greater efficiencies and the introduction of new technologies will rely heavily on consumer education, trust and acceptance of the long-term benefits versus the up-front costs. Future policy must navigate the existing barriers of fuel poverty levels in Northern Ireland and the reduction of home heating oil costs in developing a long-term strategy for the decarbonisation of heat. 85

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EU review Renewables and Energy Efficiency Directives The European Commission has launched a review of its Energy Efficiency and Renewables Directives. The European Green Deal set out ambitions to increase the EU’s climate ambitions to at least a 50 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

regulation and the CO2 emissions performance standards for cars and vans. The results of the review and possible proposals are expected to be presented in June 2021.

Such a shift likely requires existing legislation review and revision, with the Renewable Energy Directive (2018/2001/EU) and the Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU and 2018/2002/EU) set to be assessed.

Renewables

The European Commission, in early August, published roadmaps for the review of both directives and opened a consultation which is set to close on 21 September, 2021, which will feed in to the Commission’s preparatory work for the reviews. The roadmaps are set to compliment an impact assessment currently being carried out on the Climate Target Plan for 2030, as well as further work on the Emissions Trading System Directive, the effort sharing regulation, the land use, land use change and forestry 86

The Renewable Energy Directive (EU) 2018/2001 established a binding EU renewable energy target of at least 32 per cent for 2030. However, the introduction of the European Green Deal and subsequent post-Covid-19 Economic Recovery Package are set to underpin a desired green transition with higher levels of ambition. The European Green Deal presented the Commission’s plan to increase the 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target from 40 per cent to at least 50 per cent towards 55 per cent, compared with 1990 levels, in view of the objective of climate-neutrality by 2050. These plans require a review of existing energy and climate legislation, including the 2018 Renewable Energy Directive.

The Commission hopes that by September 2020 it will present its 2030 Climate Target Plan, indicating the extent to which the 2030 level of ambition for renewable energy could be increased to support the higher ambition for greenhouse gas reductions. The Commission is also set to assess the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) to gauge whether an ambition gap remains in the collective contributions to the renewable energy target set for 2030. While Europe has made progress in decarbonising its electricity production through renewables, progress in other energy areas, including gas and heat has been much slower. Fossil fuel remains the main fuel used in sectors such as transport and industry and it is recognised that there is a need for all sectors to fully contribute to decarbonisation if 2030 and 2050 targets are to be met. Also, cost efficient accelerated development of

sustainable renewable energy requires a co-ordinated approach in order to fully exploit the advantages of economies of scale and technological co-operation in Europe.

•

the possible upward review of the minimum 32 per cent target for renewable energy set at EU level, including reviewing the level of ambition of sector specific measures, in line with the impact assessment of the 2030 Climate Target Plan; consideration of elements emanating from the Energy System Integration and Hydrogen strategies, where appropriate, including to foster electrification and renewable fuels such as green hydrogen; and review of other parts of the Renewable Energy Directive and possible introduction of new measures as appropriate to reflect the European Green Deal objectives and related initiatives.

The various options presented for the review include not changing the policy, with the Commission ensuring the completion of the existing directives for member states; introducing nonregulatory measures; raising the ambition level of the current directive and subtargets in line with the 2030 Climate Target Plan; amending the directive to translate into legal measures the actions proposed in other energy strategies of the European Green Deal; or a combination of the latter three.

Energy efficiency Energy efficiency is a core element of the European Green Deal and is a guiding principle of EU energy policy. The EU has set headline targets to increase energy efficiency by 20 per cent for 2020 and by at least 32.5 per cent for 2030, embedded in the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED). The Commission announced through the European Green Deal plans to increase the greenhouse gas emission reductions target for 2030 to at least 50 per cent towards 55 per cent,

the greenhouse gas reduction target is the trend of increasing

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The specific objectives of the review seek to consider:

“One of the challenges facing

energy consumption since 2014, prior to the pandemic.” recognising the need to review relevant energy legislation by June 2021. The impact-assessment plan being prepared by the Commission is expected to provide indications on the necessary contributions of energy efficiency and renewable energy by 2030 to enable the achievement of higher climate ambitions for 2030, meaning a potential revision of the Energy Efficiency Directive. The Directive was revised in 2018 as part of the Clean Energy for all Europeans package and introduced a requirement for a further review of the Directive by 2024. The current assessment aims to assess the effectiveness of the framework of the Directive and assess to what extent the objectives of the policy intervention have been achieved. One of the challenges facing the greenhouse gas reduction target is the trend of increasing energy consumption since 2014, prior to the pandemic. While consumption is expected to be reduced significantly in 2020, efforts to rebuild economies across Europe could lead to a spike in consumption and threaten energy efficiency efforts. It’s also expected that a significant gap will emerge between the Commission’s ambitions and the efforts of individual member states. Assessment of the draft NECPs pointed to such a gap and with assessment of the final NECPs expected later in 2020, any remaining gap in collective contributions would likely require additional measures and a revision of the energy efficiency directive.

As well as no policy change and the introduction of non-regulatory measures, included in the options being put forward are to revise the Energy Efficiency Directive, with recognition that any revision will depend on an analysis of any shortfalls. Any revision would seek to: •

address a gap to the existing 2030 targets, subject to the assessment of the final NECPs;

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contribute to the implementation of other European Green Deal initiatives; and

•

contribute to the achievement of a more ambitious EU climate target for 2030.

Revisions to be considered in this regard would likely include alterations of guidance on the likes of building renovation, waste heat, energy audits and skills availability. While greater energy efficiencies are recognised as economically beneficial and providing greater levels of energy security, also obvious is that action towards this requires significant investment. The pandemic’s impact of reducing energy consumption, coupled with the likely tightening of individual member states’ spending, will make such investments more challenging and will require a clear view of the long-term benefits. The Commission intends to launch an online public consultation in autumn 2020 on the performance and possible revision options for the Energy Efficiency Directive. 87

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Northern Ireland’s renewable transition Northern Ireland is squandering its position as a global leader in renewable energy, writes Patrick Keatley, lecturer in Energy Policy and Infrastructure at Ulster University. Hindsight is wonderful. It makes it easy to mock predictions which seemed believable when they were made, but which appear ludicrous after time and events have done their confounding work. The long list of examples from the energy sphere includes the Chairman of the US Atomic Energy Agency’s claim in 1954 that nuclear energy would be “too cheap to meter”; or the sceptical senior BP executive who said, “I’ll drink all the oil in the North Sea”, when the company began exploratory drilling in the late 1960s. A 1999 paper by the Office for the Regulation of Electricity and Gas here could make a reasonable claim for a place on the list. “The maximum amount of wind capacity that can be connected to the Northern Ireland system”, it confidently asserted, “is 50 MW.” At the time, that would have sounded perfectly judicious. Two decades later however, that certainty seems quaintly wrong-headed. Northern Ireland has connected over 1,300 MW of wind power; last year almost half of our electricity came from renewable (overwhelmingly wind) generation; and as part of the all-island system, we are global leaders in integrating wind energy. Although other countries, notably Scotland, Denmark and Portugal, often claim to have integrated higher levels of 88

renewable energy than us, their chestbeating ignores two key factors. Firstly, their claims reflect political, rather than power system boundaries, overlooking the fact that these countries are a small part of much larger, trans-national power systems. By the same logic Donegal could reasonably claim the title of ‘Wind Energy Capital of Europe’ because many times its own power demand is often generated within the county border. In terms of system stability (or inertia – in this context, a good thing) needed to manage very high levels of wind power, what counts are electrical, not political, boundaries. The all-island system is a standalone grid within which wind and solar power have to be managed organically, as inertia can’t be imported through our subsea interconnector links with Britain. Secondly, the term ‘renewable’ doesn’t differentiate between controllable resources like hydroelectric and biomass energy, and uncontrollable resources like wind and solar. Hydro and biomass can be turned off and on, and up and down in much the same way as fossil generators, which makes their integration a trivial matter. Wind and solar cannot and it requires engineering brilliance to manage them at high levels.

Since 2010, the system and network operators here have developed worldleading management techniques which have made the Irish all-island grid the global leader in integrating wind power. Because of this, in Northern Ireland we didn’t just meet our 2020 target to source 40 per cent of our electricity from renewables ahead of time; we smashed it, achieving 47 per cent in 2019. Other countries are now learning from what has been achieved here in order to meet their own renewables integration targets. There is a downside to this happy tale. The variability of renewables like wind and solar means that they need flexible demand to complement their output. Globally, new markets for smart, consumer-owned flexible resources (think electric heating systems, battery and thermal storage, electric vehicles and rooftop solar, all bound together by the ‘glue’ of energy efficiency) are seeing explosive growth and overturning traditional incumbentdominated markets. While policy here has been successful in connecting a supply of renewable energy, it has failed to address the other side of the equation; creating the incentives for flexible demand to complement it. The consequence is that massive amounts of wind energy are currently being wasted. In the first six

Managing clean energy by dumping it when you can’t provide flexible demand isn’t just economically irrational, it also undermines our contribution to the UK’s emissions reduction targets. Last year the Climate Change Act (Target Amendment) Order became law, changing the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions reductions target for 2050 from 80 per cent (compared with 1990 emissions) to net zero. The momentum for the net zero target became irresistible after the UK Committee on Climate Change first mooted it in 2017, but it was evident that UK policy had been travelling in this direction, even before the Paris Agreement of 2015. Since the scientific consensus on climate change became clear, UK policy has been remarkably consistent across all administrations. The UK was the first country in the world to implement a legally binding greenhouse gas emissions reduction target while Labour was in power through the Climate Change Act of 2008. David Cameron’s Conservative government was not only a signatory to the Paris Agreement; it was one of its main architects. Similarly, under Theresa May, the UK was the first country to mandate a net zero target in 2019. Over the coming decades, intensifying global climate disasters will only be reflected in ever more urgent policy targets. But despite this clear direction of travel, Northern Ireland has always been out of step with policy in the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland is still the only jurisdiction in these islands which doesn’t have its own climate change legislation. Unlike the other devolved administrations, the Executive here interpreted the original 80 per cent emissions reduction target in the Climate Change Act to mean not that we should reduce emissions

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months of 2020, 17 per cent of Northern Ireland’s available wind energy was dumped because there was no flexible demand available for it. In terms of retail value, this represents over £50 million worth of clean electricity that was thrown away. We are currently on track to dump around £100 million worth of clean electricity this year. In an economy which has suffered from being among the highest levels of fuel poverty in the UK and Europe, that is shockingly wasteful.

“Managing clean energy by dumping it when you can’t provide flexible demand isn’t just economically irrational, it also undermines our contribution to the UK’s emissions reduction targets.” proportionately, but that we could do things at our own pace. The possibility that 80 per cent could be a waypoint, rather than a destination, and that future legislation might require a fully decarbonised energy system, seems not to have been considered. The consequence is that while the rest of the UK has reduced emissions by 27 per cent since 2008, Northern Ireland has achieved only 9 per cent. So, while the impact of net zero legislation in the rest of the UK will be significant, the fact that we are so far behind makes it a massive challenge. It also highlights the fact that not only are we currently throwing away clean energy; but that we’re simultaneously spending hundreds of millions of pounds on fossil infrastructure, based on policy from almost 20 years ago, the Energy (NI) Order 2003. When the Energy Order was written, natural gas was being pushed by the

industry as a ‘bridge’ to a low-carbon future, and because it produces fewer emissions than oil or coal when it is burnt (provided you ignore fugitive methane emissions from the supply chain), it created an opportunity to replace oil heating systems and reduce carbon pollution from domestic heat by about 25 per cent. As the gas price is regulated and usually lower than oil, it could also help to reduce costs for consumers in the short term. But by 2010, when the Northern Ireland Strategic Energy Framework (the last significant piece of energy policy here) was written, it would have been clear that increasing gas use wasn’t going to deliver anything like the 80 per cent emissions reduction required by the original Climate Change Act. Despite this, Northern Ireland has continued to invest in gas networks since then, to the tune of about £750 million. This investment carries risks.

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“Other countries are now learning from what has been achieved here in order to meet their own renewables integration targets.” Independent research into decarbonisation in advanced economies concludes that it will be primarily led by energy efficiency and electrification. In places like Northern Ireland with good renewable resources, the quick wins are achieved by the rapid electrification of heat and transport using cheap renewable energy, managed by energy storage, demand flexibility and consumer-led market structures. The upside of gas, a short-term reduction in emissions and costs, is countered by the fact that once you’ve committed to building expensive pipelines, you’re stuck with them for a very long time. The capital cost of gas infrastructure is recovered over decades (in the case of the £250 million Gas to the West project launched in January this year for example, more than 40 years). Committing consumers’ money to long-term investments in fossil infrastructure during a period of such profound change is fraught with risk.

The gamble is not limited to pipelines. As well as stopping the construction of new pipelines, regulators in the United States and Australia have begun to block the construction of new gas power plants like that planned for Kilroot on economic grounds. These decisions effectively mandate a switch from coal straight to Clean Energy Portfolios (suites of integrated technologies comprising interconnection, energy storage and flexible demand), and recognise that we are already at the end of the gas ‘bridge’. Instead of paying for standby fossil generation (like the £370 million that the new Kilroot gas plant will receive in its first decade), innovative market products are paying consumers to provide solutions to peak demand. As with pipelines, regulators can see that the declining costs of renewables and the consumer-side resources to manage them, are a better bet than long-term commitment to fossil generators. Everywhere banks, insurers and investors warn of stranded assets and

are offloading their exposure to oil and gas markets. The Chairman of Con Edison, one of the largest utility companies in the US recently announced that the company wants to sell its gas networks, saying: “We made those investments five to seven years ago, and at that time we, and frankly many others, viewed natural gas as having a fairly large role in the transition to the clean energy economy. That view has largely changed, and natural gas, while it can provide emissions reductions, is no longer part of the longer-term view”. Yet in Northern Ireland, as well as extending the grid and building new generators at Kilroot, projects like the Islandmagee Gas Energy Storage continue to be supported by the Assembly. Northern Ireland has been gifted an opportunity to be in the vanguard of the transition to a smart, clean, consumerled energy system. Our location on the margins of the Atlantic gives us access to cheap electricity from the best onshore and offshore wind resources in Europe. Our ‘long and stringy’ network is perfect for developing the innovative business models that are already empowering local communities and individual consumers elsewhere. While the Economy Minister’s recent announcement on hydrogen research is welcome, the future role and costs of hydrogen are largely unknown. Heat pumps, electric vehicles and energy storage are technologies which are ‘business as usual’ in many places and can make use of Northern Ireland’s wind energy today. Instead of exploiting our advantages, obsolete policy is locking us in to dependence on fossil infrastructure which consumers will have to finance for decades to come. A green Covid recovery like that just announced by the Scottish Government, linking clean energy with a properly funded campaign to bring our draughty, poorly insulated housing stock up to 21st Century standards, could rapidly create jobs and reduce fuel poverty. But by continuing to support the construction of outdated, polluting technology in the vague hope that we can clean it up later, Stormont may well be leading us down the same path that led to the RHI disaster.

Education report

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Evolution of education: Minister Peter Weir In the week when most pupils returned to school following the unprecedented closure in March, David Whelan sat down with Education Minister Peter Weir to discuss his re-opening plans and assess the level of delay placed on the ambitious promises of the New Decade, New Approach agreement. The return of devolved government in January was met with a level of optimism within the education sector. The agreement, signed by the five main parties, pledged radical reform across many sectors and outlined education as a key plank of many of the ambitions to improve the economy and society in Northern Ireland. The education sector found itself in an advantageous position. While other departments worked to bring their new ministers up to speed, Weir, having served as Education Minister prior to the Executive’s collapse, was well versed in the transformations required and the steps needed to initiate it. Fast forward just a few months and the course of those ambitions was altered

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radically when the scale of the potential impact of the pandemic was signalled by the decision to close all schools. After much deliberation, weighing up the risk to public health against the recognisable detriment to children’s education, Weir, fresh from visiting a number of schools following the decision to bring all pupils back, describes a “high level of eagerness” among parents, pupils and teachers. “Obviously, there will be some concerns, which is understandable, but in general I think that people have embraced this enthusiastically and energetically.” On school preparedness for the return, he says: “What I have been impressed with is not just the application of the

guidance but the level of thought that a lot of schools have put into this. Every school is different and so there is no one-size-fits-all model but I’ve been very conscious during visits of the effort and detail that has been put into a range of issues, such as staggered break times and movement around the schools, for example.” In late August, over 100 Coronavirus cases were identified in one day, the highest daily rise since May, which brought a warning from the Health Minister Robin Swann that Northern Ireland was in danger of losing its grip on the virus. Questioned on what has changed in terms of public health safety since the decision to close all schools, Weir responds: “In March we were reacting to an unprecedented situation

and so, the strong reaction across everything in society was probably the right response at that particular time. However, as time has moved on, it’s about how we could adapt ourselves to cope with the situation of the virus.

While Weir believes it would be “foolhardy” to rule out a circumstance where the full closure of schools is necessitated in future, he adds: “The Executive, the Chief Medical Officer and I have made it clear that if we need to take various actions to combat Covid then the closure of schools would be the last resort. What will be the case is that we will get incidents within schools and with the guidance and help of public health, schools will need to react.”

New Decade, New Approach Turning to the lofty promises set out in the New Decade, New Approach agreement for education and the knock-on effect of a shift in focus to managing the pandemic, Weir says he does not believe the ambitions have been set back but concedes that delivery or implementation “will have been dented”. “A lot of things that, while important and desirable, were not something that had to be happening in that particular moment had to be temporarily set aside both in terms of the ability to actually deliver and because in the Department and the Education Authority we had to target staff at the immediate crisis of Covid.” At the top of Weir’s in-tray in January was the promise to “urgently resolve the current teachers’ industrial dispute”. In April, teachers backed a pay deal from the Department which included up to the 2018-19 year and paved the way for discussion to begin for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 years. The deal, which broke the public sector pay gap, “addressed the losses against inflation” and was “benchmarked against neighbouring jurisdictions”, according to the Minister for Finance Conor

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“I think it’s also a fact that the position of children being out of school and having some form of remote learning is a short gap measure. I don’t think it’s sustainable from a long-term educational point of view. I think there is a realisation, shared across the Executive, that ensuring our young people have the best start in life and are protected for the future is critical.”

Education Minister Peter Weir pictured with pupils from Ashfield Girls’ school during a visit to mark Internet Safety Day 2020.

“The Executive, the Chief Medical Officer and I have made it clear that if we need to take various actions to combat Covid then the closure of schools would be the last resort.” Murphy. A noticeable challenge facing future negotiations is the announcement in July by Prime Minister Boris Johnson that teachers in England are to get a 3 per cent pay rise, although recognisably this is to be paid from the existing school budgets. “The immediate element identified in New Decade, New Approach was that there was a dispute which had been hanging over for a number of years. Because of funding made available through the Executive to the departmental budget, we were able to resolve that. I think it’s more problematical moving forward with very tight budgets but there will be discussions that take place with trade unions. “I think the problem with the muchvaunted increase over in England is that on the face of it no additional money was being made available. There is no point saying we will give money to something if there isn’t money to be given but there will have to be a lot of work done to see what can be done, working alongside management and the trade unions as we move ahead.”

Weir indicates that discussions on pay are set to resume in September and stresses a “fairly rapid” move to look at a number of workstreams identified in the resolution that weren’t immediately enacted during Covid restrictions. Probably the most pressing pledge made in the NDNA agreement was action to ensure “every school has a sustainable core budget to deliver quality education”. The financial pressures on some schools were highlighted in the absence of functioning government. In 2019, schools in Northern Ireland overspent on annual budgets by more than £62 million, with more than 450 schools going over budget. Outlining that the achievement of the ambition cannot be reached by a single action, Weir points to the securing of additional resources within the 2020/2021 budget which led to an increase in aggregated schools budgets and an increase in the AWPU (the ageweighted amount a school receives for each pupil). “I think there has been a large gap between what schools have and what

backgrounds together in the classroom. Critics have pointed to a piecemeal approach to integration through education in the past, including a perceived shift in focus away from integrated education to a shared education model.

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Weir, however, takes a more practical outlook: “I don’t think it’s one-size-fitsall. You could have a situation where it can mean different sectors coming together and, for example, amalgamating into a single school, which potentially could be integrated. But it could also mean shared education, where there has been a lot of good work to date, providing levels of practical, sustainable choices and improvements. For example, at GCSE and A-level it may not be cost effective or productive for a school to offer a particular subject but it might be that working with a number of other schools that they are able to share that out.

they need,” he states. “The actions at the start of the year will have narrowed that gap but certainly not closed it and the problem which we are trying to assess and obtain resources for is the extent to which Covid will have an impact on school funds.”

reform of education and while I think a review will be significant in focussing in on that, these issues can’t wait until a report is produced. Where there are changes that can be made and that will be beneficial, I think they need to be made as soon as possible.”

Just days prior to most schools reopening fully to pupils, the Minister announced a £42 million package of funding support for safe reopening but admits a financial “leap into the dark” on guessing the level of funding that will be required going forward.

As with a lot of the major reforms outlined in NDNA, there are concerns that the end of the Assembly mandate in 2022 could disrupt any long-term planning. Weir rejects the proposal that given the volume of work required, the findings of the review of education provision may never cross his desk.

“This is not something that will be solved overnight but it’s about narrowing that gap to reach a point where schools are on a more sustainable basis.”

Review Turning to the promise by the Executive to establish an “external, independent review of education provision”, Weir says that following delays, he hopes work will commence in Autumn. “Again, it’s not a couple of months job. If we’re going to look at this thoroughly then it needs to look at all aspects and that takes time. What I would say is that there is a need for ongoing change and

“I think we would aim for a timeframe that certainly any report would have to be completed within this mandate,” he explains. “It’s about setting a long-term vision and establishing practical measures. It may well be, and it would be impossible and wrong of me to prejudge any outcome, that these will have taken place over a number of years. Other elements may be able to be implemented very quickly.”

Shared education and integration A further ambition of NDNA was that the Executive will support educating children and young people of different

“Unfortunately, whilst there is still provision within the guidance for area learning, there is a recognition that under Covid, in the short term that will be something that is more difficult to achieve. There is an irony in that while there is rightly a desire to see as much sharing and mixing as possible between pupils, the Covid situation is seeing them being more ring-fenced than ever, which is unfortunate.” Quizzed on whether shared education was serving as a barrier to expansion of integrated education in Northern Ireland, Weir says: “I don’t view particular sectors in a pejorative way so, there has got to be room that if someone wishes to send their children to a maintained school, a controlled school or an Irish medium school, that it is an equally valid choice as the integrated school. “Education has a knock-on effect from other issues and the school estate will reflect the demographics of Northern Ireland. I think from that point of view, if we are looking at getting the maximum level of mixing of our pupils across society as a whole, that it’s important we produce genuine levels of mixing, rather than simply badging something for the sake of badging it.”

Underachievement In July, the Minister announced the appointment of an expert panel to examine the links between educational

underachievement and social disadvantage, another pledge of NDNA, which he says reflects a considerable wealth of experience on the issue. Outlining that the panel will take onboard extensive research already done around the issue and learnings from across the globe, he is adamant that any recommendations must be implementable. “It’s got to be grounded in something that is doable,” he says.

The recognised impact of socialeconomic background on exam outcomes, even prior to this year’s results fiasco, have been long-standing and has led to calls for reform in how pupils are assessed away from the test scenario. However, Weir believes that 2020 has only served to highlight that examinations remain the fairest method in delivering objective results. “One of the interesting things around Northern Ireland’s attainment gap is that in recent years we’ve seen steadily rising exam performance and, importantly, the gap has been closing. This year, even under the two different methods, schools improved across the board and the performance of nonselective schools was improving at a faster rate.” Asked whether a review of this year’s process may lead to a wider review of the assessment system, Weir outlines: “I think one of the lessons which emerged was that the best possible way of assessing people is by way of examinations. With examinations people have a sense of being treated fairly and at least, from the point of view of results, while they can be

disappointed, objectively they can have no complaints.”

unparalleled situations, exacerbated that level of uncertainty.”

Quizzed on whether his outlook held true for the transfer test, Weir adds: “Schools are entitled to use academic selection as a means to select their pupils and I suppose, if it’s being used, the best and realistic way of judging that is some form of test.” The Minister puts the onus on those favouring the end of the tests to devise a fairer system and adds that all too often discussions on under performance and the attainment gap are focussed on selection.

Assessment

“The vast bulk of educational experts will say that if you are looking to make interventions that will benefit children’s lives then you need to do it at the earliest opportunity, which is probably before they go through the school doors. The arguments over selection to some extent distract from the real change that needs to take place. The Department has had a considerable focus on early interventions and some of that is producing dividends.” On whether he holds any regrets about this year’s results outcome, Weir outlines a difficult situation where he believes any system, in the absence of examinations, was going to be unfair for some and increase fairness for others. “Ultimately, there has been a very strong lesson that everything beyond examination will be sub-optimal in its nature. I’m sorry for, at times, a lot of the stress that people were put under. To some extent that will happen every year with examinations, but I think the fact that we were in to such a mix of

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The impacts of social economic background on educational outcome is often a topic which gains more attention in late summer and early autumn, with the issuing of exam results. Potentially this year, more than any other year, it received widespread attention after the decision not to hold exams in favour of the use of an algorithm in the grading of A-levels to standardise results. The method was later scrapped in favour of teacher predicted grades, following complaints that the use of the algorithm disadvantaged those in lower performing schools. In the end, the Minister was forced to announce that pupils would be awarded the highest grade either predicted by their teacher or awarded officially via the algorithm.

“Schools are entitled to use academic selection as a means to select their pupils and I suppose, if it’s being used, the best and realistic way of judging that is some form of test.”

Weir is reluctant to offer an appraisal of himself and his achievements since retaking up the post since January , preferring, he says, to leave that to others, but offers: “I think the fact that we’ve made a start on things like the underachievement expert panel is significant. However, undoubtedly so much has been focussed in on trying to ensure that the system copes with Covid it has meant a lot of things have been delayed.” On what he would like to achieve, the Minister adds: “There are a range of areas we need to see progress. We need reform, we need to see changes in terms of special education needs and we need to start the process of how we can better help our pupils in those pockets of underachievement. “We are working to make our schools more sustainable and ensure that we have an education system that is structurally more fit for purpose. I think between ourselves and the Department for the Economy, beginning to drive a digital skills agenda will be critical. “There has got to be a realisation that the world that was there is not the world today. Education is both an end and a means to an end and it’s about preparing our young people for as successful lives as they can obtain. We need to make sure there are no barriers to an individual obtaining the most in life.” 95

Schools restart plan from 17 August onwards.

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Under the guidance, pupils in Primary 7, Year 12 and Year 14, along with all vulnerable students, started their school terms on 24 August. All other students returned during the week commencing 31 August. The guidance is broken down into 10 areas across the spectrum of the educational experience and Covid-19 precautions: social distancing; hygiene and physical protection; school transport; school meals catering services; curriculum delivery; workforce; pupil attendance; what to do if a person onsite develops Covid-19 symptoms; communications; and supplementary guidance for residential boarding/hostel accommodation in educational facilities.

Minister for Education Peter Weir visits Bangor Grammor School.

On 13 August, the Department of Education issued its ‘Northern Ireland Re-Opening Schools Guidance – New School Day’ document, a 70page guide for the reopening of schools after the Covid-19 pandemic forced their closures. In his ministerial foreword to the document, Education Minister Peter Weir writes that his “strategic objective has always been to achieve maximum face-to-face in class teaching time for all pupils, where safe to do so, at the earliest opportunity”. The strategy for the day one return to education was said to have been developed in line with

the Executive’s Coronavirus Executive Approach to Decision Making document, published in May, and with the aid of advice provided by the Chief medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Advisor, along with the Executive’s early August agreement that stringent social distancing arrangements between students could be relaxed

In terms of the possibility of someone onsite displaying symptoms of Covid19, the guidance states: “If anyone becomes unwell with a new, continuous cough or a high temperature/fever or anosmia in an educational setting, they and any members of their household within that school setting must be sent home and advised to follow the PHA guidance for households with possible coronavirus infection.” It also advises that if it is a child that is suspected of infection, they should, if possible, be isolated in a room “behind a closed door” while waiting to be collected. If not possible, it is advised that they be kept at two-metre distances from others and allowed to use bathrooms in the case of needing one, with the bathrooms to be disinfected before being returned to wide use. The relaxation of social distancing guidelines in the schools does not apply to the adults within, with a twometre distance maintained between adults and a distance “as far as is practicable between adults and pupils”. “Decreased interaction”, i.e. the forming of small groups, or “protected bubbles”, within years and classes is also recommended for children up to and including Year 10. For those in Years 11–14, “social distancing should be adhered to as far as is possible whilst maintaining effective curriculum delivery” and “there should be limited interactions between different Year groups”.

One of the more contentious issues of the guidance publication proved to be the provision, or lack thereof, of personal protective equipment (PPE). After the announcement that north Belfast grammar school Belfast Royal Academy would make face masks mandatory for students and staff that pre-empted the publication of the guidance, Weir’s guidance said that PPE would “only be required in a very small number of cases, e.g. dealing with intimate needs/giving medication”. This diverged from advice given in the Republic of Ireland, where students and teachers alike were advised to wear face coverings in schools, especially where the advised two metres of distance proved impossible to maintain. Weir’s guidance states that it is mandatory for students aged 13 and over to wear face coverings on public transport and recommends that all students do the same. However, it says that “given the risk mitigations in place in schools to limit and contain the spread of Covid-19, face coverings are not generally recommended for routine use in schools”. In response to the publication of the guidance, the largest teaching union in Northern Ireland branded them as “entirely unrealistic and unfair”. With other guidance such as the staggered arrival and pick up times at school gates and one way systems within school buildings, the NASUWT raised concerns that the measures would increase workloads for teachers and that schools had not been given enough time or resources to prepare. The lack of resources, particularly as schools did not have existing stocks of PPE, were a particular source for criticism, with NASUWT General Secretary Patrick Roach stressing the need for government to “commit the resources that will be needed to enable schools to implement the guidance and reopen safely”. The union’s national

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Schools are also advised to maximise the space at their disposal, to give careful consideration to the “removal of unnecessary items in the classroom to maximise the capacity and decrease the number of items requiring cleaning” and that “to provide capacity to accommodate social distancing approaches for adults and older pupils, a flexible approach to the use of all existing spaces within the usual setting may be taken”.

“A survey conducted by the NASUWT found that the majority of their members, 58 per cent, did not feel prepared to return to school or college. 89 per cent reported feeling stressed or anxious due to the return and 77 per cent stated that they were unsure whether or not it was safe for children to return to school.” official for Northern Ireland, Justin McCamphill added that it was “abundantly clear” that “returning without the guarantee of social distancing will increase workload burdens for school principals and teachers” and that “without social distancing schools will have to implement more mitigating measures, not fewer”. A survey conducted by the union found that the majority of their members, 58 per cent, did not feel prepared to return to school or college. 89 per cent reported feeling stressed or anxious due to the return and 77 per cent stated that they were unsure whether or not it was safe for children to return to school. 61 per cent of members reported that they had not been consulted over risk assessments undertaken in their school or college. As schools reopened, PPE and masks proved to be the major topic of contention, with unions stating that they should be mandatory and the Chief Medical Officer advising that they be worn in schools while pictures of Weir visiting schools without a mask were circulated as part of the media’s

coverage of the reopening. As pressure also mounted over the lack of resources allocated, Weir announced a £42 million funding package for the restart on the day that P7s, Year 12s and 14s returned to education. The package, designed to cover the first term of the academic year, includes: £17.5 million for substitute teachers and other school expenditure; £6.4 million for PPE; £5 million for school wellbeing initiatives; £3.1 million for home to school transport; and £1.4 million for special education needs. A day later, Weir also announced the amendment of the guidance for face masks, which now include the recommendation that they be worn by students and teachers in school corridors. Things have gotten off to an inauspicious start, as closures have already been forced in Ballyclare Secondary School and St. Kevin’s Primary School and St. Louise’s Comprehensive College, both in west Belfast. For Peter Weir and the Department of Education, the message from teachers and schools seems to be clear: more guidance and more resources are needed urgently. 97

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Education, equality and the economy Political partisanship has prevented positive changes to Northern Ireland’s education system, a report by leading academic Tony Gallagher has stated. educational issues and promote a discourse of the “common good”. This goal, he states, is not helped by a school system mainly characterised by division, where responsibility for different aspects of education in government seems to operate in silos and “focuses too often” on a narrow set of quantitative indicators that serve as short-term outputs, rather than longterm outcomes.

Assessing through the lens of education whether the shared political arrangements since the Good Friday Agreement have lived up to their promise of providing a means for encouraging good governance in a divided society, Gallagher, a professor at the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s University Belfast, finds that “our fractious political system” has made it difficult to generate consensus on key 98

In advocating for a roadmap to an education system that combines excellence with equality, Gallagher requests a recognition of “the shockingly high levels of inequality in educational outcomes caused by social background” and suggests a “grander vision” of the aspirations for young people’s educational achievements, one that is not only focussed on GCSE grades. The Education, Equality and the Economy study recognises that schools, and Northern Ireland’s wider

education system, face challenges similar to those found in most western countries, but have the added responsibility of preparing young people to live and work in a society characterised by division and violent conflict, while equipping them to contribute towards a shared and better society. “A society that cannot deal with the legacies of a difficult past, or help its citizens engage successfully with difference, is not one which will encourage a settled, democratic society and develop a sustainable, thriving economy in which all its citizens will benefit,” Gallagher states, outlining that the purposes of education are interdependent. The defining differences of Northern Ireland’s education system when compared to most OECD countries is the relatively young age at which compulsory education starts; the continuation of a selective system of

Students in Higher Education in Northern Ireland 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000

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26,000 25,000 24,000 2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12 NI

RoI

2012/13 Other EU

2013/14 GB

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

International Source: Education, Equality and the Econmy. QUB.

post-primary education; and the significant role of the churches in education governance. Since the Good Friday Agreement, the patterns of change among schools and students include an initial significant decline in student numbers, particularly in primary and rolling into secondary schools, which is now growing again. The fallout of the enrolment decrease was recognised mostly by secondary schools, with grammar schools maintaining or increasing their numbers through an increase in the proportion of students they admitted. The number of students entering special schools have grown more recently. There are 5,700 students in special schools but 25 per cent of students are deemed to have special education needs in the system as a whole. Irish Medium Education (IME) schools and student numbers have recognised a marked growth, coupled with a “steady” rate of growth in integrated education schools. However, the rate of integrated education pupils has stabilised recently after a period of growth. Additionally, the number of ‘newcomer pupils’ has grown in almost all forms of education, apart from grammar schools.

Achievements Despite the ending of the publication of official school performance tables, publication of league tables through freedom of information gathering means they remain an indicator for parents of educational value and pressure remains on schools to maximise their

performance levels. Gallagher, through his research, outlines a number of influences on the reliability of the data available to assess achievement patterns, not least, that only aggregate data is available, most of which is at the level of individual schools. Measures of performance have mostly relied on the percentage of school leavers achieving five or more GCSEs grades A*-C, 85 per cent in 2017/18. Girls tend to fare better than boys in this regard, although the gap is narrowing. There is no evident gap between the achievements of Protestant and Catholic pupils. When the performance measure is five or more GCSEs grades A*-C including English and Maths, which the Department of Education has tended to focus on since 2008/09, the percentage of pupils achieving this outcome has risen from 59 per cent in 2008/09 to 71 per cent in 2017/18. A small gender gap is favourable to girls. No achievement gap is instantly recognisable between Protestant and Catholic pupils but, factoring in the number of leavers in each group, the rise for Protestant pupils in this measurement is 200 compared to 1,000 for Catholic pupils. The percentage of school leavers achieving three or more GCE A Levels grades A*-E has increased from 49 per cent in 2008/09 to 53 per cent in 2017/18. Since 2008, the number of Protestant boys meeting this criterion has declined by 180, while the number of Catholics had increased by 300. The study recognises the influence of

social disadvantage as a variable in performance. Highlighting the “strikingly wide” achievement gaps gender and social background influence, it highlights that the proportion of Catholic girl leavers from affluent households with five or more GCSEs (grades A*-C, with English and Maths) is 46 percentage points higher than the proportion of Protestant boy leavers from social disadvantaged households. “It is worth noting the level of attention that is focused on gender, and perhaps even more so religious achievement gaps, but while significant, these achievement gaps are much smaller than the achievement gap linked to social background,” says Gallagher. “Indeed, it is difficult to understand why this is not perceived more generally as a scandalous circumstance and subject to urgent and immediate interventions.” On leaving school, a pattern for Northern Ireland suggests that girls are more likely to go to higher education than boys and Catholics are more likely to go than Protestants. Protestants are more likely to go to further education than Catholics, with boys a little more likely than girls. Pupils entitled to free school meals are much less likely to go to higher education, in comparison with pupils not entitled to free school meals, and this effect is greater for boys than girls.

Funding Gallagher outlines that Northern Ireland’s universities are in a “disadvantaged position” in relation to the level of funding they receive for teaching purposes in comparison to 99

FSME achievement gaps by gender (% not FSME - % FSME) 37.0 36.0 35.0 34.0 33.0 32.0

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31.0 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.0 2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12 Boys

2012/13

2013/14

Girls

All

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Source: Education, Equality and the Econmy. QUB.

“It often appears that responsibility for different aspects of education in government seems to operate in silos, within and between departments, and focuses too often on a narrow set of quantitative indicators that serve as short-term outputs, rather than long-term outcomes.” Tony Gallagher other regimes across the UK, a longstanding argument in relation to Northern Ireland’s education system. However, as he points out, more recently attention has been diverted to the funding crisis facing schools. Gallagher believes that the basis for the current funding crisis in schools derives from the way in which the Age Weighted Pupil Unit (AWPU), which provides the basis for the level of perpupil funding each school receives, is calculated. Despite cash increases, in real terms the budget decreased by over 10 per cent between 2013-2017, despite a rising pupil population. “In recent years in Northern Ireland NIAO (2018) highlighted a ‘double-hit’ on schools, with an education budget that is falling in value, and increasing pupil numbers, so that the value of the AWPU has fallen considerably. The greatest impact of this has been on primary schools as this is the area where pupil numbers are rising,” Gallagher states. 100

Identifying some particular case studies in relation to how politics has shaped the evolution of the education system since the Good Friday Agreement, Gallagher describes the academic selection debate as representing “the inability of shared government to find the compromises that might have allowed them to pursue a solution”, and adds that the “abject failure” by parties to work cooperatively towards an agreed outcome and the common good. On the push to rationalise the public service, with a key focus on education, Gallagher believes that as was the case with academic selection, “the review of public administration also seems to represent a significant failure of shared government”. Discussing the multiple delays and barriers to the Review of Public Administration in Northern Ireland’s (RPANI) ambition to establish a new single Education and Skills Authority, which was included in the 2001 Programme for Government, and abandoned in 2014 in favour of the

establishment of the Education Authority, Gallagher summarises: “The original goal of a single strategic authority may have been overlyambitious, given the institutionalised diversity of the education system in Northern Ireland, but in the end the review process lasted much longer, and costed much more, than had ever been envisaged; it resulted in the consolidation of the five Education and Library Boards into a single authority, but one without the strategic authority or responsibility that had been intended; and ended up with more NDPBs than had existed at the start, when the original intention had been to incorporate them in the single authority. “There is also little evidence to suggest the process saved significant funds for investment directly into schools,” he adds.

Economy The academic highlights the important roles of education to enhance the human capital of society by strengthening the skills base, an area where Northern Ireland has struggled in comparison to other EU countries. Pointing to patterns which highlight Northern Ireland’s comparative skill base weaknesses and the challenges that presents, Gallagher adds: “In addition, Northern Ireland is disadvantaged by the fact… that it exports a high proportion of young people who enter university in England or Wales, only a small proportion of

% of 30-34 year olds with tertiary education in the EU and UK countries 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0

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10.0

Gallagher suggests that his analysis is evidence that the educational challenges identified are not just matters of concern for education but will affect the economic capacity and potential of Northern Ireland.

Shared society Despite the widespread recognition of the potential of the education system to contribute to reconciliation, even before the Good Friday Agreement, Gallagher assesses that a series of interventions, including the development of new curriculums and deployment of contact programmes between communities at school age and the development of Integrated Education, had “limited” impact “in part because the education system as a whole never placed this role as a key and meaningful priority”.

He summarised that his evidence suggests that a “fractious political system” has made it difficult to generate consensus on key educational issues and promote discourse of the common good. “That we also have a school system that is mainly characterized by division probably does not help in that goal. It often appears that responsibility for different aspects of education in government seems to operate in silos, within and between departments, and focuses too often on a narrow set of quantitative indicators that serve as short-term outputs, rather than longterm outcomes,” he adds.

The academic outlines his belief that there remain challenges in the fulfilment of the social goal of reconciliation, stating: “We have one of the most impressive citizenship curriculums in the world, but within the wider school curriculum it is probably accorded the lowest status.

Gallagher recommends changes to the education system and asks the question: “What if we were to commit to a goal that, by the time every young person completed their time in education, they would have the qualifications, attributes and attitudes that would allow them to live fulfilled lives as citizens?

“It is hard to escape the conclusion that education could do a lot more to empower young people to believe that a better, shared world is not only possible, but achievable. But it is hard for schools to promote this sense of efficacy when we can see so many examples of education policy where

“This would involve a recognition that we would not necessarily provide all with the same outcomes, but that all outcomes would be valued,” he states. “To refocus our goals for education in this direction would also require a recognition that the shockingly high levels of inequality in educational

Italy

Romania

Portugal

Bulgaria

Hungary

Croatia

Czechia

Malta

Slovakia

Germany

Wales

political partisanship has got in the way of the common good and a positive response to challenges that have such negative consequences for the whole of society,” explains Gallagher.

Northern Ireland

Spain

Austria

Latvia

Slovenia

Greece

Finland

France

Poland

Estonia

Belgium

Denmark

whom ever come back to settle in Northern Ireland.”

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Sweden

Scotland

Luxembourg

Cyprus

Ireland

Lithuania

0.0

Source: Education, Equality and the Econmy. QUB.

outcomes caused by social background is an immediate and pressing priority that has to be tackled as a matter of urgency, and that this challenge can only be addressed by a joined-up approach across all areas of government and the involvement of wider societal stakeholders” He concludes: “It is clear… that we need to deepen and broaden our understanding of the process affecting education patterns and outcomes, and that for this we need better data in order to understand the routes young people take through education and provide better advice on opportunities and outcomes. “Most of all we need to escape the silos in education, not only within levels, but across them. Schools, further education colleges and higher education institutions all form an interdependent network of routes, yet we do not provide a roadmap of opportunities that show how people can access, assess and navigate those routes to best benefit. “If we could provide such a roadmap it might also help us identify the pinchpoints where arbitrary barriers to progress exist. And if we could achieve all this then perhaps, we might be able to aspire, realistically, to an education system that combines excellence with equality. This has been achieved elsewhere and there is no good reason why we should not achieve this in Northern Ireland.” 101

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Special educational needs: systemic failures There are “systemic failures” in the provision of help for children with special educational needs according to Northern Ireland’s Children’s Commissioner. This statement comes after the Education Authority issued an apology for its failings in the area after an internal audit found similar. The Education Authority’s apology, issued in March, came after an internal audit found that there had been “unnecessary and undue delays” in the statutory assessment and statementing process. Additional concerns were raised about the security of confidential information about children held by the Authority. Sara Long, Chief Executive of the Education Authority, apologised for the “distress and worry” caused to families affected. Long told members of the Assembly’s Education Committee that the Authority was guilty of “significant shortcomings”. Chris Lyttle, Alliance

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MLA and chair of the Education Committee said that the “shocking” findings of the internal audit demonstrated a “systemic failure” on the part of the Education Authority in dealing with children with special educational needs. The audit had been ordered after allegations made by a whistle-blower that there were a number of issues with the processing of applications for support for children with special educational needs. Almost 80,000 pupils in Northern Ireland – 23 per cent of the school-going population – have some form of special educational need.

Roughly 20,000 of these have a statement, which explains the extra help that they are to be given in school. A student believed to be requiring extra support will have an assessment carried out by the Education Authority, who will then issue the statement. This process is supposed to take a maximum of 26 weeks to complete, although this maximum can be breached in acceptable circumstances such as the Authority having to consult a number of agencies. However, information released by the Department of Education shows that the average time it took to complete a statement in

2018/19 was 40 weeks, with 280 children left waiting for over a year for their statement to be completed.

The Commissioner said that the process left carers and parents isolated and frustrated, facing “a battle or fight to have their child assessed, to receive

effectiveness of the Authority in meeting the needs of children with special educational needs, the recording by the Department of Education of every instance of informal exclusion or a child being put in isolation and mandatory training for teachers on how to deal with children with a range of special educational needs. In an online meeting of the Education Committee in June, Long said that the outbreak of Covid-19 had “set back the pace of change that was outlined in March, but, despite the challenging headwinds, progress is being made”. Long reported that the 1,070 open

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The Education Authority’s audit, which took place between October 2019 and January 2020, found that 85 per cent of the 1,300 statements examined had taken over 26 weeks to complete and that one child had been waiting over two years for their statement. The report also criticised the lack of “proactive and effective management” and the “lack of management focus or accountability on the importance of the 26-week statutory assessment timeframe” within the Authority.

Ireland attend special schools, leaving the other 74,000 with some form of special education needs in mainstream schooling. The Commissioner’s review found major failings in all main areas of provision for children with special educational needs, including the already-identified delays in identification and assessment, but also including when and how much support is offered in school and how effective that support is.

“Decisions regarding necessary educational provision are driven by the resource that is available rather than the needs of the child. The review found a system under extreme pressure finding it difficult to respond to the scale of need and the complexity of issues that children are presenting.” Koulla Yiasouma, Northern Ireland Commissioner for Children and Young People Donna Allen, the Authority’s Assistant Director of Pupil Services and Procurement, also told the Education Committee that there was “evidence to suggest that the dates that the referral was received was not the date that was recorded in the system”. The audit also found that the timeframe of delivering the support was not being monitored, often resulting in delays, and that “highly sensitive information about individual children contained within offices is not currently managed effectively”. Committee chair Lyttle said: “The findings of this report present… the development of a culture of delay, non-compliance and a lack of accountability.” Following on the heels of the internal audit was the publication of a report by the Northern Ireland Commissioner for Children and Young People that further accused the Authority of “systemic failures” and found that the needs of children with special education needs were “largely not being met” in mainstream schools. The Commissioner carried out a yearlong review into the provision of help for children with special education needs in mainstream schooling. Roughly 6,000 students in Northern

the necessary supports”. The Commissioner, Koulla Yiasouma, also found that, despite the cost of provision having risen to over £250 million, it was still significantly underfunded. The report states: “Decisions regarding necessary educational provision are driven by the resource that is available rather than the needs of the child. The review found a system under extreme pressure finding it difficult to respond to the scale of need and the complexity of issues that children are presenting.” Also reported are “alarming gaps” in information held by the Education Authority about the process of providing support to children with special educational needs, pointing to the Authority’s failure to provide data on the number of pupils schools have referred to its psychology service. The report also states that the Authority disclosed that the number of psychologists it employs has decreased by 24 per cent, from 140 in 2015 to 106 in 2019. The Commissioner’s report, which was based on responses from 608 parents and carers, 84 school principals and 57 school psychologists, makes 40 recommendations including the carrying out of an independent review into the

assessment cases delayed beyond the 26-week limit in November 2019 had fallen to 597, and that there had been an 82 per cent reduction in children waiting over 60 weeks for a statement and a 61 per cent reduction in those waiting over 40 weeks. She admitted that “those figures are still too high, but they are beginning to move in the right direction”. However, further news broken by the BBC in June — that 285 children with statements were without a school place for the approaching September — served to emphasise the mismanagement at hand. Education Minister Peter Weir said that it was “unacceptable” that these children, including 156 seeking places in special schools, were left with no places. By early August, that number had been reduced to 33, but the numbers reducing across the reported significant shortcomings in meeting special educational needs should only be seen as the start of addressing an inexcusable imbalance in provision of help for children with special educational needs. 103

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Teaching Irish History: A reply to recent criticism Alan McCully, a member of the History Teachers Association of Northern Ireland (HTANI) and formerly a Senior Lecturer in Education in the School of Education in Ulster University rebukes recent criticism of Northern Ireland’s GCSE history programme as “an eviscerated, inoffensive curriculum”. Readers may have read a recent article in the Guardian entitled ‘Is the curriculum dividing Northern Ireland schools along Troubles lines?’ The piece originated from an English based organisation, Teaching Parallel Histories, run by a former history teacher, Michael Davies. The general implication, intended or not, was that history teachers in Northern Ireland have failed to confront the Troubles and their legacy, and that a new and radical approach to teaching Irish history is required. It is fair to say that the history teaching community was not amused and demonstrated its displeasure in responses to the press and social media. Those that investigated the article further would have realised that

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the substance of its claims were based

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on a survey conducted by two 16 yearold students in an English school into only one aspect of the Northern Ireland History Curriculum, the uptake of the Irish History component of GCSE. Over the years many in the history teaching community have agonised as how effective, and pro-active, they have been in challenging the uses and abuses of history in wider society. What specifically riled teachers was that those debates were not recognised, nor were the teaching expertise and research in the field that has developed over time. In essence, the journalism did a disservice to many risk-taking history teachers in Northern Ireland.

First, let’s deal with the GCSE issue before moving on to the wider picture. Few teachers are entirely happy with the examination system as it stands and would acknowledge there is some substance in some of the points made by Davies. It might help to trace the history of the programme itself. In the mid-1990s a unit was proposed which covered the period in Northern Ireland from partition to 1985. Teachers were asked for feedback and considerable resistance emerged to dealing with the later period. The feeling amongst some was that the Troubles were too sensitive and too raw to teach at that time. Avoidance of sensitive and controversial issues is common in

Northern Ireland and is not confined to history teachers. The outcome was that the period was split into options, one covering the 1930s and the war years, 1935-49 and the other the Troubles period, 1965 to 1985 (the coverage of option two was extended from 1985 to 1998 a couple of years ago). Understandably, the former has been perceived as a “softer” option because it avoids dealing with the most recent violence.

However, there are wider concerns with the GCSE programme that we in the History Teachers Association (HTANI) think are equally important. For a start not all young people opt for history at GCSE at all. For Davies to describe the existing course as “an eviscerated, inoffensive curriculum” underestimates the challenges teachers have faced in introducing aspects of the Troubles into their classrooms, in many instances even before the ceasefires had taken affect. However, inevitably consequences result from placing such sensitive history within an external examination programme. This means that those who do follow it are constrained by the external demands of time and result pressures, thus cutting down on crucial opportunities for discussion on the human and emotional impact of violence on individuals and communities. Actually, the GCSE Irish History module represents only around 10 weeks during pupils’ five years of compulsory secondary schooling. Other, more flexible opportunities exist to encounter controversial aspects of Ireland’s past,

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Contrary to the view expressed in the articles, the imbalance between Catholic Maintained and Controlled (largely Protestant) schools taking the later unit is well known but they were correct to point out that over time many more schools from a Protestant background have transferred to the later period as the political situation has evolved. That a disproportionate number of non-selective schools continue to opt for the World War II unit reflects, at least to some extent, teacher reluctance, sometimes in loyalist areas, to address history perceived as difficult. Thus, many pupils who might benefit from the challenge of this are denied their entitlement. Indeed, had CCEA been more transparent, healthy public debate on this might have surfaced a long time ago.

“Avoidance of sensitive and controversial issues is common in Northern Ireland and is not confined to history teachers.” particularly in the Key Stage 3 curriculum (ages 11 to 14). While not pretending that it is followed in all instances, it is a radical curriculum for younger pupils which offers teachers the chance to examine controversial history in detail and make connections between Ireland’s past and the present. Notably pupils should: •

explore how history has affected their personal identity, culture and lifestyle;

•

investigate how history has been selectively interpreted to create stereotypical perceptions and to justify views and actions; and

•

investigate the long- and short-term consequences of the partition of Ireland and how it has influenced Northern Ireland today, including key events and turning points.

Many examples of high-quality practice follow these principles. Frankly, they present to young people a much more complex and nuanced picture than the blunt and dated “two perspectives”, Catholic versus Protestant approach, advocated by Davies. Research

demonstrates that the use of religious labels has caused pupils confusion in that religion represents only one aspect of contested political identities in Northern Ireland. It also suggests that over the last 40 years by taking a binary approach we have often managed to convince pupils that Northern Ireland is a conflict between two monolithic blocks which is, therefore, unresolvable. Thankfully, we now recognise a continuum of views: that not infrequently in the past and in the present, individuals think and behave differently from their peers and that stances can change over time. Alongside innovative risk-takers who relish engaging young people with our difficult past there continue to be teachers who are more reticent and guarded, often because they doubt their own capacity to remain objective and in control. Rather than chastise them for failings only too common in the rest of us, to move forward we need to involve teachers in robust debate as to the aims and focus of history teaching in a society emerging from conflict.

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Gaeloideachas: Ó neart go neart

Diarmaid Ua Bruadair at Dungiven Castle, the site of Gaelcholáiste Dhoire.

Over 50 years on from the founding of Northern Ireland’s first bunscoil and five years on from the founding of its second meánscoil in Dungiven, County Derry, Irish-medium education, or Gaeloideachas, is going from strength to strength. Odrán Waldron discusses its growth and the challenges ahead with Gaelcholáiste Dhoire principal Diarmaid Ua Bruadair and Maria Thomasson, acting Chief Executive Officer of Comhairle na Gaelscolaíochta. “Gaelscolaíocht is on the scene here for 50 years now. It started very small, with one school and a handful of students, but now we have over 7,000 students in Gaelscoileanna and we have two meánscoil, one of which, Coláiste Feirste, was founded in 1991. That’s nearly 30 years old. We also have Gaelcholáiste Doire, which was founded in 2015,” Ua Bruadair says, surveying the progress of Gaeloideachas he has seen in his lifetime. A native of Gaeltacht Bóthar Seoighe, the so-called “Irish Houses” on west Belfast’s Shaw’s Road, Ua Bruadair has a unique insight

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to the development, being the principal of Gaelcholáiste Dhoire, parent to a Coláiste Feirste pupil and former Coláiste Feirste teacher. “It’s clear that something is working and that parents want to send their children to Gaelscoileanna. It’s important then that that opportunity is made available to the pupils. We are seeing now in the city that some bunscoileanna [Irish-medium primary schools] are full and there are waiting lists now. This is something that happened in Dublin years ago, but now

in Belfast there is that same level of demand. The same thing is happening in the only meánscoil [Irish medium secondary school] in Belfast; even though there’s only one school there are a lot of students seeking places. This year, for example, there are something like 180 students going into first year in Coláiste Ferste, something we couldn’t have expected even 10 years ago.” Across two interviews with Ua Bruadair and Thomasson, both conducted in Irish, an image of extremely positive

The problem is quite simple: while both a B.Ed. and PGCE for bunscoil teachers exists in St Mary’s University College Belfast, neither is offered for meánscoil teachers in St Mary’s, Queen’s University Belfast or Ulster University. STEM subjects are cited by both as a particular deficiency. The closest thing

they are based in different communities and have different facilities and the same thing doesn’t work for both schools. In Belfast, you have a bigger community of local Irish speakers and even if you can’t draw on that, people are more likely to have moved to the city than they are to have moved to Dungiven. What Diarmaid does is take teachers with a bit of Irish and a qualification in a given subject; Gaelcholáiste Dhoire then gives them the opportunity to improve their Irish. They employ them for five days a week but give them classes four of those days and dedicate the extra day to diplomas or language classes in order to improve the teacher’s Irish. “Coláiste Feirste do it the other way around, they employ a lot of ex-pupils who understand the school and

the North can teach in either primary or secondary schools. Teachers who only have English don’t have that breadth of opportunity… Gael Linn and other organisations need to be communicating with schools about the opportunities that are open to people with Irish, such as going to Brussels to become a translator, or working here and not just as a teacher. You can be a librarian, a secretary, a drama teacher, a counsellor.”

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growth is painted, but this growth has led to concerns about the number of teachers being sufficient enough to meet demand, specifically in the two meánscoil, where fluent Irish must be paired with expertise in a given subject. For Northern Ireland, where the news of teacher numbers is often the exact opposite, that too many are qualifying per year, forcing mass emigration amongst young teachers, this may sound counterintuitive, yet it is the reality for Gaeloideachas.

Thomasson speaks of a need to “normalise” Irish and it is perhaps through Ua Bruadair’s experience of fighting for facilities for Gaelcholáiste Dhoire that that slow process of normalisation is best viewed. “When the school was founded, it was founded in a castle, a lovely building, but not exactly practical,” he explains. “Then a

“You see in Dungiven that if you provide secondary education through Irish, parents will take it. We started in 2015 with 13 students and in September we will have 227. Even without all the facilities, we’ve done that growth; imagine if we did have the facilities.” Diarmaid Ua Bruadair to a qualification in Irish-medium secondary education that exists is a language enhancement course offered by St Mary’s to QUB and UU PGCE students. Both Thomasson and Ua Bruadair credit St Mary’s with good work in the area, but stress that standalone degrees are needed for second-level teachers in order to satisfy ever-growing demand. “The biggest challenge in front of us is the supply of teachers, specifically having enough with specific subject expertise and the ability to teach through Irish,” Thomasson says. “We have two meánscoil and three strands in Donaghmore, Armagh and Castlewellan. Historically, those strands put out the word for what subjects they need to fill from a staffing perspective and if they can’t get them, those subjects are not available through Irish. The students then end up doing some of their chosen subjects in English. Obviously, you can’t do that in Gaelcholáiste Dhoire or in Coláiste Feirste. “These two schools are completely different, which is inevitable because

Gaeloideachas and if they’re lucky, they’ll get someone with a specialised subject, but if they don’t they take the person with Irish with an interest in a certain subject and take the hit to allow that person to get fully up to speed with the given subject. It’s them that has to take the hit because as of now there has been no support from the Department of Education for things like this.” Both Ua Bruadair and Thomasson are keen to stress the positives of Gaeloideachas and immersive education. “I have never been without work thanks to the Irish language. Nobody in my family speaks Irish, and people within it told me it was a waste of time because I would never use it. I can also speak Spanish, but it’s not Spanish that has kept me employed,” Thomasson says. “There are millions of people out there with Spanish, I am not needed. For every job I could get in Spanish, I could get 10 in Irish. A secondary school teacher qualified with Irish would most likely be able to speak English too, and so could teach in either medium and in

decision was made to build a block with a science laboratory, a computer room a home economics room and a technology room. In the end, the Education Authority refused to fund the technology room. We had to fight for those rooms. “The argument then was about whether or not we would have those rooms; that fight has now changed. The Government and Education Authority now accept that these facilities should be there, so we’re now fighting for when we will get them. It takes too much time to make these rooms available, to build them, to get planning permission all while our schools are growing. We don’t have the right facilities still, but at least now the Government recognises that they are needed.” Thomasson has seen similar normalisation even where Irish has previously been resisted in her dealings with the Department of Education: “While Gaeloideachas wasn’t mentioned in the New Decade, New Approach deal, what was mentioned was the translation hub. When Peter 107

with Minister Weir meant that the scheme could not be rolled out in September 2020 as Thomasson had hoped.

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The challenges are there for those dedicated to Gaeloideachas to tackle along with the Department of Education and the Education Authority, but both Ua Bruadair and Thomasson are more than optimistic for the future of the sector. It is not hard to see why: 7,000 children currently attend Gaelscoileanna in Northern Ireland and in 2017, Comhairle na Gaelscoilaíochta research predicted a doubling of the number of students in Irish-medium education by 2032. “There’s no other option, this work has to be done. Hopefully, when that’s done, the teachers who are saying there’s no jobs with Irish might see the opportunities out there. You can do any job that you can do through English in Irish too,” Thomasson says. Education Minister Peter Weir visits Coláiste Feirste following its reopening.

“A secondary school teacher qualified with Irish would most likely be able to speak English too, and so could teach in either medium and in the North can teach in either primary or secondary schools. Teachers who only have English don’t have that breadth of opportunity.” Maria Thomasson Weir originally came in as the Minister before the Assembly fell, communications from the Department were trilingual — English, Irish and Ulster Scots — but on his first day, that was ended. Inspectors with fluent Irish were sending reports to Gaelscoileanna in English. Now, with this central translation hub, our understanding is that all of that is going to be resolved. We have to go that way and it is progress.” Ua Bruadair and Thomasson both see exponential growth ahead for Gaeloideachas if the demand for teachers can be met. For Ua Bruadair, four programmes must be begun as soon as possible: a post-primary PGCE in St Mary’s similar to the bunscoil PGCE; a B.Ed for post-primary

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education through Irish; a system for training teachers who would like to change from English-medium schools to Gaelscoileanna; and a system for retraining for teachers who have Irish, an Irish degree for example, to equip them to teach specific subjects. Thomasson says that Comhairle na Gaelscolaíochta presented the Department of Education with a pilot scheme that would have helped both the supply of teachers for Gaeloideachas and lessened the excess of teachers being trained by moving 10 of the university places in other teaching subjects towards Gaeloideachas. Without a minister, the Department were unable to make such a decision, and the outbreak of Covid19 after just one meeting on the topic

“Our gold standard is independent schools. We are now finalising our three-year development plan out to 2023, which includes a kind of stress testing in given areas. We don’t found schools, but our research informs the Department’s decisions on whether or not to found a meánscoil. The process is very long, but at the minute we are looking at west Tyrone as an area with a lot of demand. We were just discussing this, but the issue of teacher supply did come up. Still, we have to be positive and continue working.” Ua Bruadair concludes: “You see in Dungiven that if you provide secondary education through Irish, parents will take it. We started in 2015 with 13 students and in September we will have 227. Even without all the facilities, we’ve done that growth; imagine if we did have the facilities. “Gaeloideachas is a bit like the chicken and the egg; the Government says that they won’t provide the facilities because the numbers aren’t there, but the numbers don’t come without the facilities. Coláiste Feirste proves that. It used to be 90 or 100 pupils going into a year, but now with the new buildings it’s 180. Everybody sees the advantages of Gaeloideachas and hopefully we will see more independent schools founded out of the strands in places such as Donaghmore, Armagh and Castlewellan. With the right conditions, such as equal provision of facilities and training of teachers, it would make progress so much faster.”

The future of transfer tests

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Like most things in education, transfer tests have been hit by pandemic-caused delays, but even before Covid-19, the future of unofficial transfer testing was a contentious issue. Following an initial announcement of a two-week delay to the holding of the post-primary transfer tests for students entering second level in the 2021/22 academic year, the contentious exams will now be held in January 2021. While the exams are typically held over five consecutive Saturdays starting in early November every year, this year’s exams had been pushed back to 21 November originally, sparking concerns that children would not receive an adequate level of preparation due to their schools having been closed, and further concerns were raised that the delay would further discriminate against disadvantaged families. The latter became the basis of a legal challenge against the original postponement. The parents of two separate children brought the action against test providers Association for Quality Education (AQE) and the PostPrimary Transfer Consortium (PPTC). Their counsel told the High Court that there was “a baseline of damage that will inevitably be caused to all by the school closures” but that disadvantaged families would be at a much greater disadvantage if the tests were to only be moved by a matter of weeks. Despite

initial attempts to resist a judicial review challenge due to AQE and PTTC being private companies, Minister Weir eventually confirmed the movement of the tests to January in response to the challenge. Other families and some teachers have voiced concerns that the new date means that pupils will now have been preparing for the exams for over a year and that, when considering the Christmas holidays, they will receive a minimal amount of extra teaching days. Yet the acknowledgment within the challenge that disadvantaged families are already discriminated against by the transfer test system (the challenge alleged further discrimination rather than new discrimination) has not led to a downturn in numbers undertaking the tests. Figures released in January 2020 show that the transfer tests have steadily grown in popularity in the decade since the abolition of the 11-plus. Just under half of P7 students now sit the tests, with 13,101 students applying for 9,462 places at academically selective grammar schools in 2018/19. This marked an increase from the 12,285 applicants for 8,844 places in 2017/18. Data shows that nine schools using the

AQE system did not accept a score below 100 and that just three of the 63 selective grammar schools were not oversubscribed. Minister Weir has consistently held the line that schools are free to academically select their incoming students and that, in his view, the fairest way to do so is through testing despite repeated protests about the discriminatory nature of the 11-plus system and its successors. Plans have been afoot to standardise the transfer tests, having one test replace the AQE and PPTC versions, but these have yet to be finalised and have been met with opposition from AQE. In a letter to schools, AQE complained of having been left out of the planning process for the standardised test and called the process “not fit for purpose”. PPTC, on the other hand, have expressed support for the proposals. 29 schools currently accept the fee charging AQE tests, 26 accept the free PPTC tests and seven accept both. While some will continue the fight to do away with the testing system entirely, the next battle shaping the future of transfer tests appears to be one more attempt to put the ever-increasing numbers of those

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Run like Mike: Four-time Paralympic champion Michael McKillop A four-time Paralympic gold medallist and a serial winner in the World Para Athletics Championships, middle distance runner Michael McKillop is still hungry for more. Ciarán Galway discusses success, setback and ambition with one of Ireland’s all-time most successful athletes. Michael McKillop has a mild form of cerebral palsy and competes in the T37 and T38 disability sport classifications. However, growing up as a child immersed in running and able-bodied sport in general, he never perceived himself to be disabled. McKillop’s parents were both athletes themselves. His father, Paddy, represented Ireland and his mother, Catherine, was an all-Ireland champion at age group level. “When I was growing up, my parents utilised sport as physiotherapy for my disability. I really fell in love with running. It was more personal to me because it was a way of being independently competitive,” McKillop says, explaining his running origins. Alluding to his continued dedication to

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the sport, he credits his early success. “I guess when you taste victory from a young age, it’s always easier to enjoy,” he quips.

sports, including GAA with Naomh

Father and coach

“Dad instilled in me a sense that anything

One interesting dynamic of McKillop’s athletic career is his relationship with his father. “I know it sounds cliched, but he’s been my coach from the day I was born. He was the one who had to take on board the fact that his son has a disability and he took on the responsibility of helping me to be as able-bodied as possible,” he explains. Paddy McKillop, a Cushendall-native and former fitness coach with Ruairí Óg GAC, ensured that his son had opportunities to participate in various

Éanna in north Belfast. Indeed, alongside his running, Michael remains an Arsenal fanatic and a keen golfer.

was possible with his backing. Having started coaching me in athletics from the age of 11 or 12, there was only one person who was going to coach me when I broke into the international scene. He still coaches me now and I trust his ability and expertise. “Beyond athletics, he’s been influential in a lot of areas of my life and having him by my side gives me a sense of security. I know that I stand beside him as his son but also his athlete,” McKillop reflects.

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Beijing 2008 In 2008, McKillop won his first Paralympic gold medal, placing first in the Men's 800m T37 Final in Beijing at the age of 18. Much has changed since then, both in his own career and in parasport generally. Prior to the Summer Paralympics in 2008, he was young and unshackled by expectations or pressures. “After I had won in Beijing, though, I had a greater sense of what a full-time athlete is. I entered the public eye and gained respect for what I had achieved. At such a young age, for me anyway, it can be difficult to accept people’s perception of you as a role model,” he acknowledges. Admitting that he subsequently missed out on aspects of early adulthood by prioritising his athletics, McKillop maintains that he wouldn’t do anything differently a second time around.

Pinnacle While travelling to Beijing to participate in the Paralympics for the first time and running in front of 91,000 people ranks highly in McKillop’s career highlights, the standout moment came four years later in London when he retained his gold medal in the 800m and also won the 1,500m race. “Running in front of 60,000 people in the Olympic Stadium, winning the 800m and breaking the world record was fantastic. Then, on the night of my 1,500m win, my mum presented me with my gold medal. That created history and she was the first parent to do so in either the Olympic or Paralympic Games. That was a night in my athletics career that will live in my memory forever. “Having the opportunity to run in and win two different events in the Paralympics is special. It doesn’t happen all the time. It was nice to do that in London, which is so close to home, and with so many friends and family in the stadium watching me. For me, that’s what I regard as the pinnacle of my career,” he recalls.

Michael McKillop wins gold in the Men’s 1,500m Final at the 2017 Para Athletics

World Championship in London.

“On the night of my 1,500m win, my mum presented me with my gold medal. That created history and she was the first parent to do so in the Olympic or Paralympic Games. That was a night in my athletics career that will live in my memory forever.” record holder and having already won a Paralympic gold medal. “Most athletes are in their 20s before they achieve even one of those successes,” he emphasises, adding: “For me to do it so early on in my life, required a recalibration of my goals.”

Motivation

Having won the 800m in the 2006 World Para Athletics Championships, his ambition was to win 1,500m and break the world record in 2011 at Christchurch. He finished first in the 800m that year but was denied a medal for the 1,500m, despite setting a world record, because of a lack of entries.

At 18, McKillop could have retired having already been world champion, world

After that, having been unbeaten since 2006, McKillop wanted to retain his

streak and secure as many medals as possible. In 2017, he retained gold in both the 800m and the 1,500m at the World Para Athletics Championships in London. “I wanted to create history and become one of the most successful Irish sportspeople ever. That’s what kept me going for a few years,” he reveals.

Green vest An Antrim-native, McKillop is a member of an elite cohort of athletes who represent Ireland on the world stage. Regarding it as “a privilege and an honour” to do so, he articulates his pride. “Undeniably, it’s an amazing feeling to pin your name and number onto that green vest the night before a

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Team Ireland homecoming: Michael McKillop and Jason Smyth exhibit their medals

competition. It’s then that you appreciate that you’re running for everyone at home. “You feel different in a way. When you work so hard for something and you achieve it, having that vest distinguishes you. Pulling it on, I have a special moment of respect for what it is, what it means and the people I’m representing.”

Team Ireland Famously, McKillop and Derry’s five-time Paralympic gold winning sprint runner Jason Smyth are close friends. “He has been a massive part of my journey and I think I’ve been a massive part of his journey too. The reason being we went to our first World Para Athletics Championships together in 2006 and we had both been unbeaten from then until I lost in 2019. There is a deep sense of camaraderie between us,” McKillop notes. To some extent, the middle-distance runner attributes the shared hunger for success to the healthy rivalry that exists between Smyth and him. “Jason has been influential, and I’ve learnt a lot from him because he’s not only a talented para athlete, he’s an exceptional ablebodied athlete as well. He’s the second fastest man across 100m in Irish history and he just missed out on competing in

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in Dublin Airport after the 2016 Summer Paralympics in Rio de Janeiro.

the Olympic Games. When you see people like him excelling at such a high level, you can only admire it,” he asserts. McKillop also pays tribute to his wider team, including his physiotherapists, strength and conditioning coaches, nutritionists and sponsors. “I have to regard them all as stakeholders in a business pursuit. We need to be on the same page and trust one and other. If it wasn’t for everyone’s knowledge and expertise, it wouldn’t succeed,” he contends.

Winning gold Describing winning gold as “the most amazing feeling”, McKillop reflects on his desire to repeat this success and prove himself as having been a major motivating factor. However, 2012 was a turning point for the young athlete, who was by then already a veteran of the sport. “Up until 2012, it was pure excitement and such an amazing feeling coming across the line first and running a victory lap. By 2013, that changed, and it became more of a pressure to win. That came from the expectations I put on myself. “There was an element of wanting to

disprove the people who didn’t regard me or parasport as elite. Pressure crept in. This is my job and it felt like it then. There wasn’t the same sense of enjoyment and it was a case of getting the job done. It became a relief more than anything else. I still had a buzz when I won, but it was more of a box ticked so that I could go into the next year,” the four-time Paralympic champion explains.

Adversity In 2018, a long-term groin injury almost forced McKillop’s premature retirement. A full 18-month absence from competitive running brought physical and mental obstacles. The athlete is no stranger to adversity, however, battling to overcome mental ill health in the past. “I have openly talked about my mental health, the struggle that I’ve had with it and the impact on my career. I was successful at such a young age and I didn’t understand what expectation really was until it hit home. I became a public figure and I was expected to win gold medals. “Initially, I hid my emotions, my stresses and my strains. My mental wellbeing was something that I didn’t respect. I palmed it off and assumed I would be fine. I hid

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my struggles for so long that I blew out. I became flat and demotivated to the extent that I couldn’t leave my room at times. That was down to the lack of excitement in my life. Everything was athletics and there was no focus outside of that. When you focus on only one element of your life, then you really lose all sense of what life is about. “I know now that athletics is just one part of who I am. It’s an interesting part, but the most important thing is being healthy. There are so many people out there who struggle with opening up and being honest. The sooner people can reach the point of understanding that they aren’t the only one who feels that way and that they aren’t abnormal, the better,” he suggests.

Winning mentality Refusing to hide his mental struggles any longer, McKillop sought medical help before opening up to his friends and family. This, he says, was the moment in which he relaxed and took stock of those around him who were only too willing to help. “As much as having a mental health issue can negatively impact upon you, in some ways it also makes you more resilient. When you recognise it and understand how low you can feel, then you can better manage the steps to overcome a mental health slump. “Many people operating at a high-level of athleticism fear negativity. In reality, it’s important to embrace the negativity and change it into positivity. Mindset is everything to me now. I focus on daily training without getting down on myself if a session doesn’t go to plan. I still put in the maximum effort and train as hard as possible. If I don’t hit my targets, at least I know I gave it my all. It means I can relax and enjoy my training more. I think of myself as being more than simply the sporting aspect of my identity,” he says.

Recognition Exploring the importance of parasport, McKillop believes that it demonstrates that while a person may have some form of impairment, it doesn’t stop them from being successful, whether in sport, education or any other sphere.

“Undeniably, it’s an amazing feeling to pin your name and number onto that green vest the night before a competition. It’s then that you appreciate that you’re running for everyone at home.” Referencing the growing visibility of Paralympic stars in British media, including entertainment shows, he indicates that while Ireland is beginning to change, it has some way to go before disabled sportspeople achieve recognition as equals. “Para athletes are elite, we eat, sleep and train seven days a week like anyone else competing at this level. However, I feel that there is an inconsistency in the respect afforded to my achievements and those of able-bodied athletes. That’s the gauge for parasport,” he argues. While recognising the fickle nature of media interest in athletics in general, McKillop appreciates the recognition he receives and suggests: “If I can be the one of the people driving the belief that what emerging Irish para athletes are doing is worthwhile then I’m honoured to do so.”

Pandemic postponement The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted sporting events across the globe, not least the Summer Olympics and Paralympics which had been due to take place in Tokyo this year. While acknowledging that the postponement was devastating for many people, athletes and spectators alike, from a personal perspective, the Irish Paralympian regards it as “probably the best thing that could have happened”. The surgery he underwent in 2018 has affected his ability to train and to build his endurance. McKillop finished fourth in the 800m at the 2019 World Para Athletics Championships in Dubai, the first time he had not returned home with a medal since 2005.

Discussing his current mentality and visualisation of victory, McKillop now knows what success and happiness look like from the outside. “I use it as motivation for Tokyo. Having an extra year between now and when the games go ahead will allow me to build everything further. I’m in better shape now than I was in July 2019 and I have another year to get fitter and more conscious of my competitors. I’m really excited about it,” he adds. Indeed, the pandemic has had negligible impact on McKillop’s training capacity. Having installed a strength and conditioning gym at his house and continued to run local country roads, the only major impact is the inability to meet with his physiotherapist.

Tokyo 2021 ambitions Looking ahead to the postponed Paralympics in Tokyo, McKillop’s primary ambition is to get back on the podium. “There is a newer and younger version of me in the race. He’s exceptionally talented and seven years younger than myself. However, I know that no one is unbeatable. I’m focused on getting as fit as possible and manoeuvring into a position whereby I can compete for the top spot. “I’m the veteran of the race now and probably the most experienced. I also know how it feels to lose and it’s still fresh in my mind. Whenever it gets hard, I know that I must dig deep to win again. We can prepare as much as we want, but when it comes down to the moment of truth, you find out how hungry for that win you really are. That only reveals itself on the track,” he concludes.

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A perspective on planning: Jim Mackinnon Former Chief Planner and Director for the Built Environment with the Scottish Government Jim Mackinnon offers his observations of the Northern Ireland planning system and the challenges that remain five years after reform of the system. Mackinnon retired from his role with the Scottish Government in 2012 but his work since has seen him act as Director of Planning for Belfast City Council for a short period during the transfer of powers, as well as undertaking reviews of planning services in Newry, Mourne and Down and Ards and North Down councils. His work in Northern Ireland is extensive and dates back just under two decades when he was asked to be a “critical friend” to the board of the former Department of Environment (DoE) and give an assessment of Northern Ireland’s planning system. At the time he highlighted poor performance figures, low staff morale and a lack of trust between the development industry and the planning service, issues which he

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believes, to some extent, still exist today. “There are people working in Northern Ireland who have worked in other systems in England and Scotland and in comparison, they have voiced concerns that the pace is glacial, the culture is not particularly service-user friendly and the performance figures speak for themselves,” he states. “It’s disappointing because there are a lot of very good and motivated people within the planning system of Northern Ireland but there remain issues that drag down performance and contribute to low morale.” Quizzed on why he believes improvements envisaged during the reform of the planning system and decentralisation of many of the planning

powers from central government to Northern Ireland’s local authorities in 2015 have not addressed these challenges, Mackinnon says: “I think many of the planners found it difficult moving from central government, with relatively little political supervision, to a system where a councillor would walk in and expect to be updated, to lobby and potentially pressurise. Planners weren’t used to that and some weren’t comfortable with it. “A lot of planners still take the view that their job was to implement policy but much of the policy in existence was that of the Department. It’s not always the case that the Department’s policy is supported by the individual council and its elected representatives.”

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He adds: “I think the focus has been on policy and the purity of the process, rather than on outcomes. There is a nervousness about anything perceived as less than strict adherence to the process.” Mackinnon believes that this nervousness is brought about by the nature of Northern Ireland as a “disputatious” and “litigious” region, where there appears to be a greater willingness to seek judicial review, and this adds a layer of caution to how planers carry out their work. The former Chief Planner for the Scottish Government stresses that the faults of Northern Ireland’s planning system are not those of planners alone. He highlights ongoing issues with consultees in relation to failures to respond, late study requirements and advice changes as existing barriers to progress, while not all developers act in accordance with the advice they receive. Similarly, he points to the existing poor IT system in relation to development management, which he says is not conducive to the efficient handling of planning applications. The Department of Infrastructure (DfI) and 10 of Northern Ireland’s local authorities recently awarded a contract for the delivery of a new regional planning IT system but the system is not set to be phased in until late 2021 to early 2022. “I feel much sympathy for the planners, administrators and clerical staff who have to operate it,” he states. “It’s a real problem in terms of delivering greater efficiency.” Mackinnon recognises a greater understanding by senior officials within many councils of the potential of planning when placed at the centre of their ambitions for development and regeneration. “Having leadership who recognise the potential of an efficient planning system and who support improvements is key,” he explains. “But planners must respond positively to that trust.” In order to avoid many of the frustrations with the performance of the planning service which he says have been evident

“My own view is that the term plan is a misnomer. What you get is a long report with some maps at the end, as opposed to writing to support an agreed vision.” as local authorities look to develop and regenerate, Mackinnon believes there is a requirement for a move away from a “gold plated process” in planning. One example he highlights, where improvements could deliver quick wins, is in the area of service standards. Mackinnon suggests the need for a holistic approach to service standards in planning, not just in terms of the turnaround time in dealing with planning applications but also in response time to telephone calls, letters and digital communications. Setting out the existence of a perception that Northern Ireland’s planning system lacks a customer-focus, he explains: “I’d like to see outlined and easily accessible, not only the council’s expectations of the planning system, but also the expectations of the council on those engaging with the planning system, such as the requirements for sufficiently drawn up plans and justification because it’s a two way thing.”

Local development plans Turning to the local development plans (LDPs) currently being developed by all of Northern Ireland’s 11 local authorities, Mackinnon has concerns that the process appears slow and that plans, when adopted, will be forced to play catch up on changing scenarios within

each local authority. He references the process of BMAP, which was developed as a concept back in 2000 as a critical element to investor confidence and local development plans, but which wasn’t formally adopted until 2015, only to face further legal challenges, as an example not to be followed. Mackinnon has witnessed the volume of work that has gone in to producing the development plans but is critical of the form they take. “My own view is that the term plan is a misnomer. What you get is a long report with some maps at the end, as opposed to writing to support an agreed vision. “What happens with a long report is that the more you write, the more the lawyers can look over it and planners get more nervous. In relation to strategic environmental assessment, I know that Northern Ireland planners are nervous because of the delay, between 2004 to 2008, to delivering the Magherafelt Area Plan 2015. “I also take the view that I think the Department’s guidance and legislation is too difficult, too demanding and requires a radical rethink. The DfI are not that heavily involved in local cases but there is still a perception that the Department knows best. That will change over time as people get more comfortable with the new system.”

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“I think there is a need to get that operational and business planning thinking into Northern Ireland’s planning service, and indeed, the wider public service.” Mackinnon is of the belief that while each local development plan will be unique to the needs of their area, a tendency remains with planners in Northern Ireland to feel bound by central government policy and advice, which means that they are not always sufficiently attuned to the needs of the local area. “I’m not criticising the individuals involved but I think that the challenges that they face in getting these local development plans up to date is a difficult one and it’s not helped by the legislation and the guidance being given on what should be their form and content.” Mackinnon is in favour of the development of more succinct plans, ensuring that the documents are easily readable, understandable and easier to update. “I don’t think you should be writing documents which are biblical in proportion,” he adds. “Having a document which sets out clearly for all parties clear indication of areas where development and redevelopment can be progressed would be most beneficial.”

Action plans The former Chief Planner for the Scottish Government stresses the importance of the delivery of action plans to be placed within or support the local development plan vision. “A lot of local development plans contain vague ambitions and aspirations,” he states. “You don’t disagree with the objectives but often lacking is that action plan setting out deliverable outcomes in a

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specific time frame. For instance, if the ambition is to improve environmental quality in Belfast city centre then you must set out how you are going to achieve that. It’s about operationalising the plan and taking broad laudable objectives forward by specific actions. “I think there is a need to get that operational and business planning thinking into Northern Ireland’s planning service, and indeed, the wider public service.” Mackinnon believes that current ambitions by the Department to deliver a regional infrastructure delivery plan will assist in this regard, focussing attention on specific aims. As an aside, he believes that the delivery of local development plans would be assisted by the abolishment of public inquiries in this regard. Recognising that the suggestion is controversial and an anathema to some, he believes that the expense and time associated with public inquiries into local development plans outweighs their value. “My view is that this should be left to the local authorities. It’s their policies and so theirs to adopt as they see fit. Understandably, some issues may arise in relation to national guidance and the Department might be required to intervene, but essentially it is a matter for the local authorities.” Mackinnon references the Republic of Ireland where public inquiries into local development plans do not exist, mainly because of the strict legal requirement on local authorities to have plans up to date every six years.

“I think we need radical thinking on this because my guess is that we probably won’t see local development plans adopted until 2022, and some even later than that.”

Climate change Mackinnon also believes that detailed action plans will serve as the best support for the increasing recognition of planning’s role, both nationally and regionally, in addressing the climate crisis. “Currently there remains a gap between rhetoric and implementation in this regard,” he suggests. However, he also urges caution in regard to the current approach to sustainability: “Even more so of late with the pandemic, more and more people are discussing the environmental benefits of less traffic on the roads and greater numbers of people working from home. I think there are great opportunities in this, but I also recognise that in planning for this you potentially create a city centre denuded of office workers. The knock-on effect is the closure of services that support these workers and then the vibrant city centre that is aspired to doesn’t actually exist,” he says. “What is required is a balance and in getting that balance right, planning has a major role. Most important will be the actions taken on the ground in this regard.” Concluding, the former Chief Planner believes that a cultural change is required to improve Northern Ireland’s planning system, where greater recognition is given to the benefits of a collegiate approach to planning, rather than one which is top down. Pointing to recent figures which show that four of Northern Ireland’s 11 local councils did not meet the 15 week target to process local applications to decision or withdrawal, while at the same time the Department’s processing of major applications remains significantly above the 30 week target (52.8 weeks in 2019/2020), he says that the figures demonstrate that some of the criticisms being levelled at Northern Ireland’s planning system are soundly based and that what is required are urgent actions to find solutions to these existing problems.

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New Stormont Standards Commissioner appointed medicine with Medical Council Ireland. Prior to her appointment as Standards Commissioner, she also served as a nonexecutive director for the Belfast Health and Social Care Trust for 11 years, In the past, McCullough has made news after raising concerns about her treatment by a Belfast neurologist who was then suspended by the Belfast Trust over possible misdiagnoses. The appointment comes after the retired solicitor Paul Kennedy, who was due to take over the role in July, withdrew from the appointment process just days before he was due to take up the role. MLAs had been expected to approve Kennedy’s

In a decision agreed by all five parties of the Executive, medical law and ethic expert Melissa McCullough has been appointed as the Standards Commissioner for Stormont’s Members of the Legislative Assembly.

appointment before the summer recess, but a debate was called off at short notice and it was announced that Kennedy had withdrawn. Among the high-profile cases of McCullough’s predecessor Bain was the investigation into First Minister Peter Robinson and his wife Iris Robinson in 2014. The investigation exonerated the

McCullough takes up the post, which has the powers to investigate potential breaches of the code of conduct for MLAs, after it had lain vacant since 2017 Accordingly, she will have the power to retroactively investigate any complaints made against MLAs in the last three years, but recommending sanctions will remain under the remit of Stormont’s Standards Committee. The post had remained vacant following the end of Douglas Bain’s five-year term in 2017, with the collapse of the Executive meaning that no successor could be agreed. All five Executive parties have now agreed to McCullough’s appointment, which was the first order of business on the Assembly’s agenda when it returned from its summer recess. McCullough is a native of the USA, who

moved to Northern Ireland as a Queen’s University Belfast PhD student in 1994. A graduate of Bachelor’s degrees from Temple University and the University of London, a Master’s degree from Albany Medical College and a PhD from QUB, McCullough also holds certificates in a variety of subjects from QUB, Cornell University, the University of Helsinki and the University of Michigan. She is recognised as an academic expert in medical ethics and law, with teaching and research experience ranging across QUB, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Goethe University Frankfurt and the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. McCullough also serves as a director for Belfast design company Designco, a member of Doctor Care Anywhere’s clinical governance board and as a panel assessor and chair for undergraduate

then First Minister but found Iris Robinson to have been guilty of a serious breach of standards by failing to register £5,000 in payments made to her by property developers. Robinson resigned all three of the Parliament, Assembly and council seats she held at the time. In his 2016 annual report, the last filed before the collapse of the Executive, Bain warned that the public was losing confidence in the Stormont complaints system and made a number of recommendations to reform the process after the number of complaints he received in a year fell from 53 to 14. These included the banning of the use of the Petition of Concern to stop politicians being punished for breaking rules and the appointment of members of the public to the Assembly Committee.

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EU coalitions and cleavages The geopolitical disruption heralded firstly by Brexit and secondly by Covid-19 has altered the power dynamics within the EU. Brigid Laffan explores EU coalitions and cleavages in this new era. The UK left the EU on the 31 of January 2020, the first member state to do so. This transformed the Union of 28 into a Union of 27 and removed a significant country that had played a central role in the dynamic of integration for almost 50 years. The UK exit was followed immediately by the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic across Europe, confronting the member states with a major public health crisis and the need to freeze the European economy. Covid-19 served to overshadow Brexit, although the negotiations on the future relationship are continuing albeit at a slow pace.

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The transformation of the UK into a third country altered power and coalition dynamics within the EU. It robbed the smaller northern European states, including Ireland, of a longstanding likeminded country on many although not all issues. For Denmark and Sweden, the loss was particularly acute as it removed a prominent non-Euro state. For Ireland, Finland, Belgium and the Netherlands it represented the loss of a liberal pro-trade member state. The loss of a large state impacted also on the power balances across the larger

member states. It reinforces the centrality of Germany and France as the pivotal states in the Union. As we will see from the response to Covid-19, it has had the effect of giving more prominence to Italy and to a lesser extent Spain. Poland which could position itself as part of a Warsaw-Berlin-Paris axis has lost out due to the decline in its reputation on the protection of the rule of law and judicial institutions. Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the Union was divided east-west and north-south on some big issues. the two big east-west

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issues were migration and the rule of law. In 2015, during the refugee crisis, many of the countries of east-central Europe were unwilling to burden share when it came to the distribution of refugees. This remains the case. Tensions have been greatly exacerbated by the deliberate acts of Hungary and Poland in particular, relating to democratic checks and balances and the rule of law. Both these countries have been taken to the European Court of Justice for breaches of key EU values and norms. There are also major governance issues in Bulgaria. The north-south cleavage is a legacy of the Eurozone crisis during which the Mediterranean states, in addition to Ireland, were most badly affected and experienced the slowest recovery. The migration crisis, the burden of which falls disproportionately on the countries of the Mediterranean, adds to a sense in these member states of being left behind. The arrival of the pandemic did nothing to dilute this grievance as Italy was the epicentre of the outbreak when it arrived in Europe. Having struggled to address the pandemic in March 2020, the EU began to build collective capacity from April onwards. The most significant outcome was agreement on a series of measures to assist the economic recovery. One cannot understate the importance of a collective EU response to the recovery. Covid-19 was a symmetric shock that arrived from outside Europe, but the member states did not have equal financial power to keep their health and welfare systems going. The historic legacy of high debt in some countries, especially Italy, could lead to a disruption of Europe’s financial markets and hence a destabilisation of the Euro. In March, nine countries co-signed a letter supporting the introduction of common debt to address the costs associated with Covid-19. The nine countries were France, Italy, Spain along with Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Slovenia. This was a major shift in coalition dynamics. First, France was willing to support a preference that was uncomfortable for Germany to say the least. Second, Ireland was willing to reposition itself away from the Hanseatic League which was dominated by the Netherlands. Third, a central European state, Slovenia, was willing to adopt a bold

“Nor would it have been wise for Ireland, for long a net beneficiary of budgetary largess, to lack solidarity with the hardest hit states.” policy position. Although this initiative did not come to fruition, it created the political space for movement by other states and assured the Mediterranean states that they were not on their own.

Although opposed to the strategy, these

By May 2020, Chancellor Merkel led a major shift in German policy and together with France proposed a €500 billion recovery package. The importance of this shift cannot be overstated. It marked the first major Franco-German initiative for almost a decade and signalled that Germany was prepared to do what was necessary for the future of the Union. President Macron had been trying to persuade Berlin that such a bold step was necessary.

was still a member state. It is my view that

Between May and July, the 27 had to collectively agree to the shape and size of the Recovery Fund and the Multi Annual Financial Framework (MFF) for the next seven years. The negotiations were tough and tortuous as four smaller northern European states, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden, sometimes joined by Finland, battled to reduce the size of the Fund and the balance between grants and loans.

states known as the ‘frugal four’ were unwilling to veto the proposals. It is impossible to know what would have happened in these negotiations if the UK this was the first major EU negotiations that benefited from the absence of the UK, which given its past record on budgetary negotiations would have used the veto. This would have forced the member states to adopt an instrument outside the formal treaties. Ireland’s position in these negotiations is very interesting and smart. If Ireland positioned itself with the Hanseatic league on this, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe would not have won the vote on the presidency of the Eurogroup. Nor would it have been wise for Ireland, for long a net beneficiary of budgetary largess, to lack solidarity with the hardest hit states. Ireland is well place to adopt a strategy of multiple coalitions with its partners depending on the issue in question rather than binding itself closely to any one group.

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A statue of Edward Colston being pushed into the river Avon in Bristol, England.

Reconsidering representations of a complex past Academics Joanne Murphy and Sara McDowell outline the ongoing debate around the future of historic public memorials in Northern Ireland in the global context of greater recognition of their role in defining social spaces and civic cultures. The killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May 2020 has instigated a global period of reckoning over issues of race, representation and belonging. Amid widespread protests against police brutality, cultural landscapes of official commemoration have been brought sharply into focus. The legacy and memorialisation of leaders associated with slavery or colonial practices in public spaces is being re-examined across America and in some parts of Europe. Some statutes have been removed by force or preemptively to avoid street violence. Before the death of Floyd, the United States had already engaged in a series of debates about the place of Confederate flags and statues in society. For many, the Confederate era

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represents the historic oppression of African-American communities: a legacy that continues to shape existing inequalities and experiences. For others, the signs and symbols of the Confederacy are an integral part of America’s Southern heritage and should be retained. These opposing perspectives speak to broader issues surrounding identity and belonging in modern communities whose past is both contested and unsettled. As such, they raise questions at home and abroad about the role of historic public memorials in places where perspectives, legal structures and attitudes have changed, sometimes radically. In addition, the rise of so called ‘culture wars’, ‘cancelling’ and ‘no platforming’ between groups with opposing views

has led to further polarisation between left and right of the political spectrum. Northern Ireland has a rich, if sometimes contentious, commemorative landscape. While much of this material acknowledges and remembers a past that is mediated through an ethnonationalist lens, there is also, a rarely acknowledged and complex regional tie with the slave trade. Across the island of Ireland there is a plethora of statues, buildings and street-names that pay homage to key actors and figures involved in different aspects of slavery. Examples include Larne Town Hall, named after Charles McGarel. A plantation owner and slave dealer, McGarel opposed the abolition of slavery and was paid tens of thousands of pounds as compensation for his own

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‘slave holdings’. Amnesty International has recently lobbied the Council to change the name of the Hall. Sir Hans Sloane was born in county Down and was married into a family that owed a sugar plantation in Jamaica. A memorial statue in his memory stands in Killyleagh. In Newry, a statue to the pro-slavery advocate John Mitchel has attracted considerable local controversary. Mitchel, who is generally known for his newspaper ‘The United Irishman’ and revolutionary views also has a number of GAA clubs named after him. More generally, questions have arisen over King Billy and the Crown’s historic role in the transatlantic slave trade and the need for holistic interpretations of history which take account of the complexities of the past and do not ignore uncomfortable facts. The issue of what, how, when and where we remember (and forget) is often fraught with difficulty and subject to evolving socio-economic and cultural contexts. Signs, symbols and statues, often hiding in plain sight, assume heightened symbolic importance. While so common as to be almost invisible, these cultural markers can influence and define social spaces and civic cultures in subtle ways. So how should societies deal with contested narratives of the past? Do we simply remove statues and emblems that celebrate the historic oppression of one group by another? Should they be replaced and if so, with what and by who? Or should we rather leave them in situ as a reminder of power and inequality? As Prince (2020) notes: “Public sculptures and statues have been used to signpost, to exemplify what power looks like and to maintain the systems of power. Now, the public is looking at its representations of people and delving into history, instead of glossing over uncomfortable parts of the past and moving on.” These debates are especially relevant to Northern Ireland as societies in transition from conflict often seek to renegotiate

their public memorials as an integral part of the process of renewal. Statues and commemorative icons perform a communal function in reminding us of key moments and figures that are important to our history and identity. It should be noted however, that such iconography is not necessarily representative of everyone in society, rather it often characterises narratives that are meaningful for a dominant group, at a particular time. They are less resonant and sometimes very challenging to those who seek to amplify alternative narratives. As we have seen in Spain, Bosnia and other regions of Europe that have experienced civil strife, street names, public monuments and civic buildings can become proxies for conflict and a way to keep historic contestation current, as society shifts and changes. It is also possible that the longevity and significance of public artefacts can be reinterpreted and renegotiated over time within the right circumstances. Given Northern Ireland’s own history, these debates feed into what are persistent public debates about the memorialisation of our own contested past in public spaces. In 2013, a decision to fly the Union Flag from the City Hall only on designated days led to street protests, violence and the intimidation of council staff and local political figures. This level of destabilisation underlines the potential toxic potency of cultural and political symbols in societies still uneasy with their history. Ironically, the process which led to the

removal of the flag was only one part of a parallel inquiry exploring commemoration within the City Hall confines more generally. The other strand of the process successfully sparked an investment initiative to conserve, display and contextualise historic artefacts and emblems within the building. These sensitive discussions had a markedly different outcome to the politically contentious issue of the flag. This demonstrates that there exists simultaneously and in tension both a civic ability to resolve sensitive issues of memorialisation and the ‘tinderbox’ potential of these matters if they are weaponised for other purposes. Perhaps the approach of careful consideration, informed historical analysis and political maternity which allowed for a reframing of artefacts internally within Belfast civic buildings, provides a model for Northern Ireland, and more generally in these islands, as we move towards reconsidering representations of our complex past. Inevitability, how we live with our history and how it marks our public streetscapes has to be managed in a way which reflects not only historic understandings of society, space and people, but also modern interpretations of the same concerns. One thing is for certain, these debates are not going away. As the novelist William Faulkner succinctly reflected: “The past is never dead, it’s not even past.”

Authors Joanne Murphy is a Senior Lecturer in Queen's Management School and Academic Director of the William J. Clinton Leadership Institute.

Sara McDowell is the Course Director of the BSc Geography programme at Ulster University and teaches Belfast key concepts and research methods in Human Geography (specialising in Political Geography).

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TRADE UNION DESK Liberty for me, surveillance for thee.

One of the most striking things one learns from reading Peter Geoghegan’s ‘Democracy for Sale’ is how discreet are the architects of Brexit Britain, who presently populate the great ministries of state under Prime Minister Alexander Johnson, writes the ICTU’s John O’Farrell. ‘Discreet’ is a kind expression. Alternatives could include ‘shadowy’, or ‘shady’, or ‘watchful’, or ‘exclusive’. What is very clear about the UK’s power elite is how their avowed support for liberty and freedom is in marked contrast to what we know about their world: Who funds their think-tanks?; From where those donors extracted their wealth?; How do they decide priorities for policy?; What are they keeping from Westminster’s scrutiny committees?; Who benefits from the enormous largesse of public procurement? When Dominic Cummings sat in the garden of Number 10 Downing Street and deigned to answer some questions from a line of supplicant lobby journalists, the question which he was not asked, let alone forced to answer, was this: If what he did in apparent contradiction to government guidelines was perfectly fine and above board, then why did his press officer Lee Cain stonewall questions from the Mirror and Guardian for six weeks before the story broke, and why did they then attempt to deflect the veracity of the reports by smearing those hacks as bitter remainers? Old-fashioned authoritarian politicians used to reply to critics of our addiction to CCTV and the Chinese levels of surveillance in our increasingly privatised ‘public spaces’ with the implicit accusation of ‘if you are doing nothing wrong, then you have nothing to fear’. As our PM might stammer, ‘Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?’ When negotiations began for the UK/EU Withdrawal Agreement in 2017, “British politicians remain stubbornly wedded to the idea that there will be ‘no running commentary”, observed the Institute for 122

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Government. In contrast, “the European Council published its ‘transparency regime’ for the Brexit negotiations, committing the EU to a far greater degree of transparency than anything that we have seen in the UK”. Since we ‘Took Back Control’ on 31 January, the UK side of negotiations resumed the cloak of discretion, part of a consistent pattern of ‘secrecy as statecraft’, whose highlight was the usurping of the UK’s unwritten constitution in late 2019, the de-facto suspension of Parliament which was eventually overturned by every sitting judge on the Supreme Court bench. Even the Queen was lied to about the proroguing by her most gracious servant, Jacob Rees-Mogg. He ‘misled’ the monarch, and when asked by one of our best hacks, Antony Barnett, about the estimated £7 million he earned through his stake in Somerset Capital Management since the referendum, he icily replied that “the amount that I received is not for public disclosure. I’m entitled to the same privacy in my affairs as anyone else in parliament is”. There is so much we do not and cannot know about the people and institutions altering our lives. The pandemic has been a boom time for public procurement for all kinds of services, and the apparent urgency has meant that, unfortunately, there has been little time for the ideal procurement processes for outsourcing, such as open advertisement, and seeking bids from at least three competitors to ensure that public money is protected from incompetence or cronyism. Qui bono? Ministers are changing how we find out

what they’re up to. Trade Secretary Liz Truss held three meetings in the spring with the secretly-funded Institute for Economic Affairs, and then ‘revised’ the meetings as ‘personal’, rather than ‘discussing trade’ as originally described in the Government’s own quarterly transparency data. Which brings us to the chaos over Alevel results. A weird obsession for Tory ideologues in recent years has been ‘grade inflation’, and naturally, when outsourcing a method to grade SixthForm students, they asked “those creating the algorithm to protect the ‘integrity of the qualification’ by aligning results with exam centre performance over the previous three years.” Inevitably, ministers had to admit that they did not understand the algorithm, but that only reinforced that they were not to blame for the consequences. The same ministers and the same advisors are in the process of the most radical realignment of our lives in hundreds of ways as we leave the ‘sclerotic’ regulatory space of the EU, and much else in the international architecture of globalisation. What can possibly go wrong? Will we find out?

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‘Constructive’ North South Ministerial Council January included a number of commitments relating to the reestablishment of the NSMC including, specifically, issues spanning Brexit and parliamentary relationships.

Credit: Kelvin Boyes/Press eye

Unionist participation in the NSMC has been chequered, dating back to its inaugural meeting in December 1999, which the DUP boycotted. DUP leaders in the past have questioned the need for its existence and called for its suspension over value for money concerns. However, all members of Northern Ireland’s Executive attended the meeting apart from the Justice Minister Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party.

Covid-19, Brexit and devolution were discussed as the North South Ministerial Council (NSMC) met for the first time in almost four years, but comments made after the meeting suggest it may not have been as “constructive” as portrayed. The 24th meeting of the NSMC marked the first plenary meeting of the two newly formed governments in Ireland and represented the first meeting of the crossborder co-operation body, established under the Good Friday Agreement, since November 2016. Ironically, it was the northern representatives who entered the meeting with the greatest experience of power sharing between parties, having been back in government since January. However, it was Micheál Martin’s elevation to Taoiseach that injected fresh emphasis into talks on greater north-south cooperation. Martin has previously expressed a “passion” for creating a shared island and made the NSMC meeting a priority in his first month at the helm. The meeting came shortly after the Taoiseach’s first official visit north to meet with the First and deputy First Minister, which saw the two northern leaders share a platform for the first time since the fallout over Michelle O’Neill’s attendance at the funeral of republican Bobby Storey. “It was a warm meeting, it was a meeting in which a wide array of views were

expressed. North-south cooperation is a key priority for our government,” said Martin. Arlene Foster described the meeting as “worthwhile” and “productive”. However, shortly after the meeting, Foster moved to brand as “disappointing” comments made in the media by the Taoiseach that he intended to “beef up” the Shared Island Unit, suggesting that Great Britain may get fed up with Northern Ireland. “What happens if England gets turned off Northern Ireland? We've got to be thinking all this through,” he questioned. Foster took to Twitter to hit back at Martin’s comments stating, “A good neighbourly north-south relationship requires consistency. After a positive NSMC, the Taoiseach's comments are disappointing. “The principle of consent determines Northern Ireland’s place in the UK,” she said, adding: “Northern Ireland will keep moving forward by respecting our diverse identities, not dubious theories.” The New Decade, New Approach agreement which saw the restoration of the Executive in Northern Ireland in

The order of business centred on the Covid-19 response, where despite a Memorandum of Understanding on public health cooperation between the two health departments, noticeable gaps have appeared in the restrictions being imposed by both governments, most notably around travel restrictions. The NSMC meeting agreed to an early meeting of the Council to review ongoing cooperation in responding to the pandemic and also that upcoming meetings of the Council in relevant sectors will consider how north-south approaches could contribute to the promotion of economic and social recovery. In relation to the commitments under the New Decade, New Approach agreement, specifically the delivery of projects that will benefit people across the island, the Council requested that relevant ministers take forward discussions on these commitments and noted that senior officials will continue to meet regularly to maintain a strategic overview of the projects and commitments set out. An update of the commitments is set to be presented at the next Council meeting scheduled for December 2020. On Brexit, the Council discussed the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. The joint communiqué ambiguously stated that ministers recognised the common interest of both jurisdictions to minimise disruption to trade and economic activity on the island.

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Hume: Rest in peace The death of Nobel laureate John Hume prompted an outpouring of grief for the man who sacrificed political and personal capital in pursuit of an selfless philosophy, writes David Whelan. A founder of the SDLP, John Hume’s name is renowned globally for his role in indefatigably pursuing his vision of a shared future and ending political violence in Ireland.

His role in ultimately persuading unionists and loyalists to share power with nationalists and republicans in 1998 is his lasting legacy but was only one accomplishment on a long list made in an effort to improve society in the north of the island.

As a teacher, the former MP, MEP and MLA recognised the value of repetition. Later in his political career he would be both criticised and lauded for his use of a ‘single transferrable speech’. Hume often retold the story of the advice of his father during unrest at a civil rights protest in his younger years; “you can’t eat the flag”. Hume’s repetitive mantra, however, was somewhat justified when, in announcing the loyalist ceasefire in 1994, David Ervine declared: “All elements must be comfortable within Northern Ireland... you can’t eat a flag.”

Hume, despite his many travels, remained rooted in the Derry. He was one of the first beneficiaries of hard-fought for free secondary education in Northern Ireland, allowing him to attend St Columb’s College in Derry. He would later recount his belief that public education transformed the nationalist community in Derry and in recognition of the power of education,

While many recognise the peace process as his greatest achievement, Hume proudly recalled his role as a founding member of Derry Credit Union, serving as the youngest ever President of the Irish League of Credit Unions at the age of 27 from 1964 to 68. He believed that no movement had done “more good for the people of Ireland, north and south,” than

The outpouring of tributes to Hume, aged 83, from across civic and political society somewhat masked the turbulent journey he made in steadfast rejection of violence and a firm belief in the principle of consent.

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decided to pursue an early career as an educator, after initially studying for the priesthood.

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the Credit Union movement. He was also a founding and leading figure in the civil rights movement in Derry during the late 1960s. His energy was largely focused on local reform, highlighted by his role as the first Chairman of the Derry Housing Association and as Chairman of the unsuccessful University for Derry campaign. However, Hume did not take part in the anti-internment march on Bloody Sunday organised by the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association, believing that the aggressive behaviour exhibited by British soldiers at the Magilligan Strand protest the previous week was cause for concern. Hume actively tried to dissuade people not to host or attend the march which would ultimately see 26 unarmed civilians shot by the British Army, 14 of whom were killed. Three years prior to Bloody Sunday, Hume’s attentions had turned to politics and he was elected as an independent member of the Parliament of Northern Ireland. He was a founding member of the Socialist Democratic and Labour Party

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(SDLP) in 1970, which rejected abstentionism and wanted to improve civil rights from within Stormont’s system. The party, disillusioned with the system, soon withdrew and the Parliament was abolished in 1973. He was elected to the new Northern Ireland Assembly in 1973, serving as Minister of Commerce in the short-lived power-sharing Government. In 1974, he unsuccessfully ran for a seat in Westminster, something he would later achieve in 1983. Hume succeeded Gerry Fitt as the SDLP’s leader, then the largest nationalist party, in 1979 and in the same year became one of Northern Ireland’s three MEPs elected to the European Parliament. Hume’s unwavering vision for Ireland was best summarised during his speech when collecting the Nobel Peace Prize in 1998, alongside David Trimble. “I want to see Ireland as an example to men and women everywhere of what can be achieved by living for ideals, rather than fighting for them, and by viewing each and every person as worthy of respect and honour. “I want to see an Ireland of partnership where we wage war on want and poverty, where we reach out to the marginalised and dispossessed, where we build together a future that can be as great as our dreams allow.” Hume’s intelligence was matched by his incredible headstrongness. He had the foresight to see that any solution for lasting peace would require the political inclusion of Sinn Féin, even if that move would be politically damaging for the SDLP. His stamp is evident on each of the major political developments of the time including the Sunningdale Agreement, the AngloIrish Agreement and eventually the Good Friday Agreement. However, the description of Hume as the architect of the Belfast Agreement is sometimes overstated. Hume possessed the vision and undoubtedly helped shape the political climate for the Agreement but he also surrounded himself with capable allies. Mark Durkan, for example, who would go on to lead the party after Hume’s departure sculpted much of the wording and the key strands of the Good Friday Agreement. Indeed, Durkan and Alex Attwood were

“An unshakeable commitment to non-violence, persistence, kindness and love.” Bill Clinton

among the minority who supported Hume when many colleagues sought to oust him following the emergence of the ‘secret’ discussions between Hume and Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams. The talks, which had been ongoing for many years, were publicly revealed in 1993 and the subsequent fallout took a significant toll on Hume’s personal and political capital. While shaken by the Dublin media’s response to his efforts, he remained defiant publicly and famously declared that he didn’t give “two balls of roasted snow” what sceptics thought. The media alone was not Hume’s only concern. Within the SDLP, the majority sought change as offered by the party’s deputy leader, Seamus Mallon. Regardless, Hume overcame the personal strife, though the ideological split in the party is one that is still evident today. This materialised when Mallon was appointed as the deputy First Minister to the Northern Ireland Assembly following the acceptance of the Good Friday Agreement, rather than Hume. That Hume likely foresaw the political rise of Sinn Féin to the detriment of the SDLP, something which they have yet to recover from electorally, is often missed. Prior to his death, Mallon infamously said that while John Hume was no fool, the Sinn Féin leaders had played him “like a 3lb trout”. However, others choose to believe that Hume’s actions were evidence of his self-belief and conviction in achieving peace, even if that came with a political cost. Hume swiftly recognised the contribution external actors could have on the internal realities in Northern Ireland. He regularly travelled to the United States to consolidate support for non-violent

resolution to the conflict, while also securing political backing for his efforts. Equally, he built up contacts and relationships across Europe in his role as MEP and seen the European project, and its associated softening of borders for trade purposes, as a fundamental basis for improving co-operation across the island of Ireland. Former US President Bill Clinton paid tribute on Hume’s death saying that his chosen weapons in his “long-war for peace” had been “an unshakeable commitment to non-violence, persistence, kindness and love”. More than two decades after the Good Friday Agreement though, the work started by Hume remains unfinished. While violence has largely subsided, peace remains volatile and the political powersharing institutions unstable. Hume despised sectarianism but it remains evident in Irish society, with polarisation of nationalist and unionist communities still evident. Brexit has cast up many of the challenges still facing Northern Ireland’s current leaders. Hume’s efforts came at a personal cost. In the late-1990s it was announced that he was showing early signs of dementia. By 2001, he had resigned as leader of the SDLP while battling poor health. His funeral in August was viewed as somewhat fitting of the globally recognised statesman. Surrounded by a limited number of close family and friends, Hume’s requiem mass in the town he loved so well was dignified, humble and marked by all shades of the political spectrum.

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Political Platform Rachel Woods MLA Rachel Woods is the Green Party MLA for North Down, having replaced former party leader Steven Agnew in the Assembly in November 2019. She is a trained researcher and served on Ards and North Down Borough Council before becoming a Member of the Legislative Assembly. Outline your background/career to date

MLA for a time and became a councillor in 2019. I was co-opted as MLA for North Down in November 2019.

I’m from Holywood and still live in the town. I went to school at Sullivan Upper and studied at Queen’s University. I did a master’s at QUB on Terrorism, Violence and Security. I then went to work for the Financial Times in Belfast as a Research Associate for Analyse Africa. I worked in Stormont for Steven Agnew

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I have worked in the hospitality industry

Politics was always a kitchen table conversation in our home as I grew up. I spent a while shouting at the television before I took the plunge into politics with the Green Party.

as a waitress and bar staff while I was studying and in the early part of my career.

What inspired you to get into politics?

I was inspired by Professor John Barry. I took some classes with John and he stirred my interest in our unsustainable economic, political and social practices. I volunteered with the Green Party NI after I completed my master’s and

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breakdown, Covid-19 and Brexit. If we think that Covid was a wrecking ball, climate breakdown will do much worse. Brexit, similarly, will bring about big challenges and change, as now acknowledged by those who had previously advocated for the UK to leave the EU. However, I also feel that we are really well placed to build back better in my constituency. The people of North Down have a well-earned reputation for thinking outside the box and for resilience.

became involved with the North Down Greens. I campaigned for Remain during the EU referendum in 2016 and helped in too many elections campaigns in too short a period of time! I have always been motivated by a desire to help people and providing representation for people that might not feel that they have a say. I also believe that green politics is about providing an alternative to the hamster wheel of conflict and disagreement. The ceasefire babies deserve better than that, particularly given the emerging challenges of Covid-19.

Who do you admire in politics or public life / political role models? Growing up, I admired Mo Mowlam and her contribution to the peace process. More recently I have gained massive respect for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her vision for a society that doesn’t leave people behind. I also admire the work of David Lammy as a Labour back bench MP.

What drew you to the Green Party? I was and still am drawn to the Green Party’s vision for the promotion of social and climate justice as interconnected issues. The just transition to a low carbon economy should leave no community behind. That’s why environmentalism is about healthier, happier communities and people as well as places. I also love that the Green Party NI feel like extended family to me now.

What are your key priorities for your constituency? North Down has been impacted by Covid-19 like everywhere else. The challenges are complex – economic, social, environmental and political. I’ve been working with people on a huge mix of issues created or exacerbated by the pandemic and there has been much despair around people’s health, their wellbeing and financial future. We are facing a triple threat of climate

Green politicians have represented the area for some time now, so I believe there is a mind-set around making the shift towards a fairer, more sustainable society. I’m also keen to bust the myths of all of North Down as the Gold Coast of Northern Ireland. Yes, some areas are wealthy beyond most of our imagination but that’s not the case across the board. Many areas see high levels of economic deprivation and high levels of unemployment. I’m motivated to ensure that these people aren’t forgotten about and aren’t left behind. In terms of specific local issues, there needs to be progress on the sustainable redevelopment of Queen’s Parade, Bangor. The future of the town for local people and residents depends on getting this right and getting local people on board after so many false dawns. I am also committed to sustainable infrastructure for the constituency – that means promoting greenways and active travel solutions such as cycling and walking. It means ensuing that our outdoor green spaces are free from litter and that they are safe and accessible.

What are your interests outside work? I love to cook and eat and drink! I also enjoy playing football and recently helped set up Holywood ladies football team. We are on the lookout for new players by the way! Spending time with my family is really important to me. I also love taking a walk in Redburn or the North Down coastal path.

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A level and GCSE Results in 2020: This year it was (and still is) personal! The spotlight shone on this year’s exam results process served to highlight the long-standing recognition of the influence of social factors on the qualification system outcomes, writes Jannette Elwood.

A level and AS results were initially released across the UK on 13 March. Over four days, we here in Northern Ireland heard and read many heartwrenching stories from students who were badly affected by ‘the algorithm’ and who did not get the grades they were predicted by their teachers. Then on 17 August, the Minister of Education, Peter Weir, like his counterpart in England, U-turned on the use of the official algorithm to assign grades to young people and allowed teachers’ assigned grades to stand. This meant that, in the end, many young people felt they got the grades they deserved; but many other had missed out on key opportunities afforded to them by proposed university places, apprenticeships or jobs. Much of the outcry was because we didn’t have examinations this summer; young people were not given the opportunity to sit examinations and show what they know and understand. While many of us put undying faith in the reliability and validity of such examinations, they are not without inherent problems, how could they be? Too many social factors all interact with the outcomes achieved. Much effort goes into standardising examination outcomes and making results similar year-on-year but we know from research that examinations interact significantly with social inequalities such as gender,

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ethnicity or social class and even in the way in which young people are assessed. This has always been the case, it is just that this year, the adjustments that were made in the processes of awarding grades magnified these inherent inequalities which were, visibly and audibly, unacceptable to students on the receiving end of initially downgraded estimated grades. For young people this year was not about the system, it is about them, it was personal.

improvement or students’ own individual endeavours to improve their results in final exams. While teacher assessments can be biased, so too can be the use of moderation and statistical models that are adjusted for past school performance. This year the double impact of teachers’ estimates grades and the moderation processes by awarding bodies brought social class inequalities to the fore, again as we saw, with major consequences for the validity of the outcomes.

Teachers’ assessment decisions are also not neutral. Again, from research we know that teachers’ unconscious biases differentially impact in various ways. This year teachers were asked, in haste, to assign grades to each student based on past evidence and teachers’ estimates of what the student might achieve had they been able to sit the exam; but also they were asked to put students in rank order within those grades. While teachers undoubtedly did their best to be fair to all students in assigning grades, this unfamiliar activity of ranking within grade brought further bias into the revised system right from the start and thus posed major consequences for the validity of the estimated outcomes.

For me, the most prevailing positive fallout this year’s examinations debacle is the mobilisation of young peoples’ voices denouncing what they saw as an unjust system forced on them in haste and which fell short of the standards of fairness they demand from their qualifications systems. Any review of this summer’s examinations chaos should utilise their considerable energies to create assessment systems fit for their changing world. As we move into a postCovid society we must seriously rethink our models of examinations and who is authoritative about what these might look like. Adults need to align with young people as equal stakeholders in decision making about the best way forward for our future examination systems here in Northern Ireland.

Statistical models were then used to moderate teacher judgements. These models included students’ prior attainment but also past performances of schools. This combination created the ‘troublesome storm’, the inequalities inherent in the estimates of teachers’ grades doubly impacted with the moderation processes that did not allow for any consideration of school

Professor Jannette Elwood is the Dean of Graduate Studies in the Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences and Professor of Education in the School of Social Sciences Education and Social Work at Queen’s University Belfast.