Volume IV, Issue 10
October 2009
Pork industry turns corner Experts predict stabilizing prices, good demand for 2010 By Emma Struve
The quarterly hogs and pigs report released by the USDA September 25 indicated the national swine herd inventory was down by two percent from last year; good news for producers struggling to break even. Glenn Grimes, Professor Emeritus and Extension Marketing Specialist from the University of Missouri, said it was “a little better report than we expected” since the USDA numbers were lower than trade estimates. Conditions in the swine industry are similar to the nation’s economy as a whole: not necessarily improving yet, but the losses have slowed. “One of the take aways from this report…were trying to find a bottom,” remarked Joe Kerns of Iowa Select Farms. Decline in the breeding herd inventory, at 5.87 million head as of September 1, outpaced the swine herd overall. It declined three percent since 2008 and two percent since the second quarter of 2009. Even with a record high number of pigs saved per litter, 9.71 for the period of June Joe Kerns through August, the Iowa Select Farms number of feeder pigs was four percent less in September of 2009 compared to the same time last year. Kerns was also positive about the impact of a weak U.S. dollar. He indicated that economic factor could lead to increased pork exports; reason Kerns stated, for “a little bit of optimism.” Grimes expressed concerns about the interaction of export and domestic pork demand and H1N1 influenza, “What I’m afraid of, more than decrease in demand, is that some of export partners will use that as a barrier.” Daniel Bluntzer, director of Research at Frontier Risk Management of Corpus Christi, Texas, theorized that the worst effects of H1N1 publicity have already been felt. He questioned whether the breeding herd would continue to decline and said an eight to ten percent decrease in the sow herd would be necessary to improve profitability.
"One of the take aways from this report … were trying to find a bottom,''
Continued on page 3
SWINE HERD NUMBERS Iowa Nation
Breeding herd inventory 1.01 million head 5.87 million head
Change from 2008 Market swine inventory -6% 18.59 million head -3% 60.75 million head
September 1 population estimates from the USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report dated September 25, 2009.
Change from 2008 -1% -2%