Web agri april 2018

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agri Bedryfskonferensie/Commodity and Corporate Conference

Case studies confirm positive involvement The majority of Agri SA’s members and affiliates are either actively involved in farmer development or acted as development consultants to farmers. The following case studies indicate the type of projects that are undertaken. For a comprehensive list of transformation activities see p 35.

Cotton SA Cotton SA currently provides training and PHQWRUVKLS WR IDUPHUV 7KHVH IDUPHUV organised themselves into 18 co-operatives LQ 1NRPD]L LQ 0SXPDODQJD 1NRPD]L LV a very hot area and the soil quality is not suitable for crop cultivation. It is, however, perfect for cotton cultivation. ,Q WKH ILQDQFLDO \HDU WKH department of rural development and land UHIRUP '5'/5 FRQWULEXWHG 5 PLOOLRQ DQG &RWWRQ 6$ 5 PLOOLRQ WR WKLV SURMHFW ,Q KD RI ODQG ZDV FXOWLYDWHG of which 1 460 ha was planted by hand. With the assistance of Cotton SA’s team, DQ DYHUDJH \LHOG RI NJ SHU KD ZDV produced which resulted in a gross income of R16.4 million or R5 936.80 per ha.

Hamlet Hlomendlini (Agri SA), Karabo Takadi (Absa) and Dr Requier Wait (Agri SA)

Pieter de Jager (Afrilogic), Henri Minnaar (Agrimentor) and Gerhard Schutte (RPO)

The Nkomazi area is about 11 000 ha in size, so there is ample opportunity for expansion and development. However, this is subject to the availability of funds for more agricultural implements, installing proper irrigation systems and further training. Cotton SA plans to build a processing plant in the area to bring the market closer, so to speak, and create even more employment opportunities.

National Wool Growers Association (NWGA) The NWGA organises and provides training and mentorship to small-scale sheep DQG ZRRO IDUPHUV 'XULQJ WKH financial year these farmers produced NJ ZRRO ZKLFK ZHUH YDOXHG DW

Maximilian Berger (German Embassy) and Jack Vera (Netherlands Embassy)

Chris Krone (Dried Fruit Techical Services) and Warren Bam (SATGI)

5 ,Q NJ ZLWK D YDOXH RI 5 ZHUH produced. The significant increase in production and income can largely be attributed to the training and mentorship provided by NWGA. The introduction of a ram-exchange programme improved the genetics of flocks and subsequently increased wool production. A socio-economic impact study FRQGXFWHG E\ 'DYH 7DSVRQ LQ RI NWGA’s project found that within the relevant communities ‡ WKH QXPEHU RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK FKLOGUHQ going to bed hungry has declined from LQ WR LQ DQG appears set to continue downwards; ‡ WKH QXPEHU RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK VDYLQJV DFFRXQWV KDV LQFUHDVHG IURP LQ WR LQ DQG VHHPV VHW WR continue upwards; and the number of households that could afford school fees KDYH LQFUHDVHG IURP LQ WR LQ Although substantial amounts of money are already spent on this project, there is room for development. The NWGA’s current capacity only allows it to assist 330 wool producing communities involving close to 10 000 individual producers per year. However, there are currently about ZRRO SURGXFLQJ FRPPXQLWLHV PRUH than 40 000 individuals) country-wide. >>> page 39

Brett Naidoo (Lion Pride) and Marzaan Polidorou (NAHF)

Jaco Minnaar (Grain SA), Pietman Roos (Agri SA), and Derek Matthews (Grain SA) agri $35,/ ‡ 0(, 0$< œ bladsy/page

agri Nuus/News

Expropriation without compensation – the first consultation: 1DWLRQDO /DQG 'LDORJXH )RUXP DQG 0DUFK ANNELIZE CROSBY, HEAD: LAND L AFFAIRS, S AGRI SA

3DUOLDPHQW UHVROYHG RQ )HEUXDU\ WR VWDUW D SURFHVV ZKHUHE\ WKH &RQVWLWXWLRQDO 5HYLHZ &RPPLWWHH ZDV mandated to consider whether an amendment to the property clause in the Constitution was necessary and desirable to speed up land reform.

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he first meeting of the Constitutional Review Committee took place on 0DUFK 7KH FKDLUSHUVRQV of the Review Committee felt that it was necessary to prepare members of the committee for the task by ensuring that they have a full understanding of all legislation, proposed legislation, research and current views on expropriation of land without compensation. For this purpose, the committee joined IRUFHV ZLWK WKH 1HOVRQ 0DQGHOD )RXQGDWLRQ the Gordon’s Institute of Business Studies, and the In-Transformation Initiative to engage LQ VWDNHKROGHU FRQVXOWDWLRQV RQ DQG 0DUFK 7KLV VR FDOOHG 1DWLRQDO /DQG Dialogue with a cross-section of opinion makers in the arena of land reform was a first engagement in the public consultation process. The committee will also undertake SURYLQFLDO KHDULQJV GXULQJ 0D\ DQG -XQH which will culminate in parliamentary hearings in July. All interested parties will have the opportunity to also submit written submissions to the Review Committee.

The motion The EFF proposed the following motion: “The House: QRWHV WKDW 6RXWK $IULFD KDV D XQLTXH history of brutal dispossession of land from black people by the settler colonial white minority; IXUWKHU QRWHV WKDW ODQG GLVSRVVHVVLRQ OHIW an indelible mark on the social, political and economic landscape of the country, and has helped design a society based on exploitation of black people and sustenance of white domination; DFNQRZOHGJHV WKDW WKH $IULFDQ PDMRULW\ ZDV RQO\ FRQILQHG WR RI WKH ODQG LQ 6RXWK $IULFD ZKLOH ZKLWHV RZQHG DW the end of the apartheid regime in 1994; IXUWKHU DFNQRZOHGJHV WKDW WKH FXUUHQW land reform programme has been fraught with difficulties since its inception in 1994, and that the pace of land reform KDV EHHQ VORZ ZLWK RQO\ RI WKH ODQG transferred back to black people since 1994;

DFNQRZOHGJHV WKDW WKH UHFHQW ODQG DXGLW claims that black people own less than RI UXUDO ODQG DQG OHVV WKDQ RI urban land; UHFRJQLVHV WKDW DW WKH FHQWUH RI WKH present crisis regarding the resolution RI WKH ODQG TXHVWLRQ LV VHFWLRQ RI the Constitution, the “property clause�, which protects private property rights, and requires the State to pay compensation when expropriating land in the public interest and for a public purpose; IXUWKHU UHFRJQLVHV WKDW WKLV SURSHUW\ FODXVH makes it practically impossible for those dispossessed of their land to get justice for injustices perpetrated against them; QRWHV WKDW LQ KLV 6WDWH RI WKH 1DWLRQ Address, President Cyril Ramaphosa made a commitment that Government would embark on a radical land reform programme that entails expropriation of land without compensation; IXUWKHU QRWHV WKDW DQ\ DPHQGPHQW to the Constitution to allow for land >>> page 43

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<<< page 41 expropriation without compensation must go through a parliamentary process as Parliament is the only institution that can amend the Constitution; and HVWDEOLVKHV DQ ad hoc committee, in WHUPV RI 5XOH WKH FRPPLWWHH WR D UHYLHZ DQG DPHQG VHFWLRQ RI WKH Constitution to make it possible for the state to expropriate land in the public interest without compensation, and in the process conduct public hearings to get the views of ordinary South Africans, policy-makers, civil society organisations and academics, about the necessity of, and mechanisms for expropriating land without compensation; E SURSRVH WKH QHFHVVDU\ FRQVWLWXWLRQDO amendments with regard to the kind of future land tenure regime needed, taking into account the necessity of the State being a custodian of all South African land; F FRQVLVWV RI PHPEHUV DV IROORZV $1& '$ ()) DQG RWKHU SDUWLHV G H[HUFLVH WKRVH SRZHUV LQ 5XOH WKDW may assist it in carrying out its task; and H UHSRUW WR WKH $VVHPEO\ E\ QR ODWHU WKDQ 0D\ The ANC proposed substantial amendments to the original EFF motion. The ANC amendments provide for a proper consultation process and built in the “caveats� regarding agricultural production and food security. The ANC amended wording also clearly states that the Constitution should be reviewed “where necessary�. There is no mention in the ANC motion of state custodianship of land. The ANC amendments to the motion entailed the following: “That paragraph 6 of the motion be amended as follows: 1. Recognises that the current policy instruments, including the willing buyer willing seller policy, and other provisions RI VHFWLRQ RI WKH &RQVWLWXWLRQ PD\ EH hindering effective land reform.� 'HOHWH SDUDJUDSK RI WKH PRWLRQ DV SULQWHG RQ WKH 2UGHU 3DSHU 3. Substitute paragraph 8 of the motion with the following: “notes that in his State of the Nation Address, President Cyril Ramaphosa, in recognising the original sin of land dispossession, made a commitment that Government would continue the land reform programme that entails expropriation of land without compensation, making use of all mechanisms at the disposal of the State, implemented in a manner that increases agricultural production, improves food security and ensures that the land is returned to those from whom it was taken under colonialism and apartheid and

agri Nuus/News undertake a process of consultation to determine the modalities of the governing party resolution.â€? 4. Amend paragraph 10 as follows: “with the concurrence of the National Council of Provincesinstructs the Constitutional Review Committee to – in sub-paragraph D EHIRUH WKH ZRUGV ´WR PDNHÂľ WR LQVHUW ´UHYLHZ VHFWLRQ RI WKH &RQVWLWXWLRQ DQG other clauses where necessaryâ€?; LQ VXE SDUDJUDSK E DIWHU WKH ZRUG “amendmentsâ€? to insert “where applicableâ€? and delete all the words after “neededâ€?; GHOHWH VXE SDUDJUDSKV F DQG G LQ VXE SDUDJUDSK H WR WKH GDWH IRU UHSRUWLQJ WR WKH $VVHPEO\ WR ´ $XJXVW Âľ

The dialogue of 27 and 28 March 7KH ZRUNVKRS WKDW WRRN SODFH RQ DQG 0DUFK DW WKH *RUGRQ ,QVWLWXWH RI %XVLQHVV Studies in Johannesburg was attended by amongst others the minister of mineral UHVRXUFHV *ZHGH 0DQWDVKH WKH GHSXW\ minister of public works, Jeremy Cronin, the minister of rural development and land UHIRUP 0DLWH 1NRDQD 0DVKDEDQH WKH director general of rural development and land reform, Leona Archery, other senior government officials, a number of prominent large-scale farmers and organisations such DV $JUL 6$ $JEL] %DVD WKH 1HOVRQ 0DQGHOD Foundation, the FW de Klerk Foundation, Lamosa, a number of judges, academics and WKH PHGLD 0HPEHUV RI WKH &RQVWLWXWLRQDO Review Committee and more particularly the FR FKDLUSHUVRQV 9LQFHQW 6PLWK DQG 0DWKROH 0RWVHJD DOVR DWWHQGHG WKH ZRUNVKRS DQG facilitated an engagement on the last day where they requested that those in attendance express their views on the question as to ZKHWKHU VHFWLRQ ZDV DQ LPSHGLPHQW WR land reform. 2YHUDOO WKH GHEDWHV DW WKH ZRUNVKRS ZHUH robust, informed, stimulating and productive. The view that the property clause is not an impediment to land reform and that the constitution need not be amended was widely held. 7KH DUJXPHQW WKDW VHFWLRQ KDV QRW \HW been tested in court, was persuasive in this regard. It was in this context that the minister of rural development and land reform said that she was planning to bring a test case on the interpretation of “just and equitable compensation� to the courts. Agri SA will use such an opportunity to also put our views on the interpretation of VHFWLRQ WR WKH FRXUW ,Q IDFW $JUL 6$ KDV already put arguments on this important matter before the Supreme Court of Appeal LQ WKH FDVH RI 8\V Y 0VL]D ,Q WKLV PDWWHU WKH court held that arbitrary deductions from the compensation amount were not allowed.

Any deduction will have to be justified and quantified. Recurring themes of the workshop were the need to restore the dignity of people who were dispossessed, the need to speedily address the real impediments to land reform, the need for a land audit recognised by all, the optimal use of state land, public-private partnerships, issues of post-settlement support and the financing of land reform. An opinion was expressed that land reform policies and laws needed to be aligned with the Constitution and that those needed to be amended, not the other way around. There was huge support for this view. Afasa held the view that they supported expropriation without compensation, because members of district land reform committees were told that there was no money for land acquisition. They also said that they would give guidance on what were the specific cases for expropriation without compensation. Deputy minister Jeremy Cronin had the following to say: “The EFF position is that all land should be expropriated without compensation. That is not the ANC position. What is important is that the EFF wanted a quick ad hoc committee in Parliament to deal with this matter. The ANC made sure that the correct procedure was followed. The Review CRPPLWWHH ZLOO FRQVLGHU ZKHWKHU VHFWLRQ We need to investigate needs to be amended. W ZKDW KDSSHQHG LQ WKH 0DOD 0DOD FDVH 0DUNHW YDOXH LV RQO\ RQH IDFWRU WR EH WDNHQ into consideration. You start with market value and can then adjust the compensation either upwards or downwards. The consideration is just and equitable. The final arbitrators as to what is just and equitable are the courts. This section has not been tested in the courts. Section LV QRW DQ REVWDFOH EXW D PDQGDWH IRU transformation. We can consider expropriating without W compensation, but we will need a law of general application to stipulate the circumstances under which this may be done. A possible draft wording for such an amendment to the Expropriation Bill can read as follows: â€?In cases of expropriation in the public interest, the state may withhold compensation where the property is: a) an abandoned building; b) unutilised land; c) property held unproductively and purely for speculation purposes; d) under-utilised property held by public entities; e) land actively farmed by labour tenants with an absentee title holder. â€? Ronald Lamola, a former ANC Youth League leader, said that the ANC wanted a rational >>> page 45 agri $35,/ ‡ 0(, 0$< Âś bladsy/page

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agri Nuus/News

Agri SA’s Corporate Chamber in conversation about expropriation 0HPEHUV RI $JUL 6$·V &RUSRUDWH &KDPEHU KDG EUHDNIDVW ZLWK H[ &RQVWLWXWLRQDO MXGJH $QWRQLH *LOGHQKX\V LQ 0DUFK -XGJH *LOGHQKX\V LV UHJDUGHG DQ H[SHUW RQ H[SURSULDWLRQ +H DQVZHUHG $JUL 6$·V TXHVWLRQV Question 1: Is expropriation without compensation possible in terms of the Constitution? Answer: Yes, but only in specific circumstances. Question 2: Can the Constitution be amended and, if so, how? Answer: Yes, by a two thirds majority in WKH 1DWLRQDO $VVHPEO\ DQG VL[ RI QLQH SURYLQFHV LQ WKH &RXQFLO RI 3URYLQFHV $ PDMRULW\ LV QRW UHTXLUHG Question 3: What does the Constitution currently stipulate regarding expropriation? Subsections 25(2) and (3) deal with expropriation. $QVZHU 7KH ZRUGLQJ RI VXE VHFWLRQ namely that compensation must reflect an equitable balance between the public

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interest and the interests of those who are affected, is derived verbatim from the German constitution. Expropriation is a public liability and must be borne by the community as a whole and not only by the person whose property is taken. It would be unfair to encumber one owner more than another. Equitability in respect of a public liability is a principle adopted by French, German and American law. If we in South Africa were to deviate from this, we will be acting contrary to the position in many other countries. 0RVW FRXQWULHV· FRQVWLWXWLRQV UHTXLUH compensation, whether full compensation 'HQPDUN 1RUZD\ 5XVVLD .HQ\D WKH Seychelles and Lesotho), fair compensation ZKHUH D EDODQFLQJ WHVW DSSOLHV 86$ Poland, Japan, Egypt, Namibia, the Congo

DQG 0R]DPELTXH HTXLWDEOH FRPSHQVDWLRQ )UDQFH 5ZDQGD 0DGDJDVFDU DQG Tanzania) or adequate compensation %RWVZDQD 0DOWD 8JDQGD DQG =DPELD ,I South Africa were to scrap the equitability principle, we will be out of pace with most African countries. Weighing up interests could sometimes result in no compensation being paid. An example of this is Greece where land held by a convent was expropriated without compensation and given to the people who worked it. In Scotland, land owned by the nobility and worked by crofters was expropriated without compensation and given to the crofters. Expropriation without compensation is possible in South Africa. For example, where a businessman bribes a chieftain in a trust area to give him land and then evicts >>> page 45

agri Promosie/Promotional

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agri Nuus/News

No such thing as level playing fields for agriculture: Cape Town surrenders day zero predictions J JANSE R IE, HEAD OFF NATURAL RESOURCES, RAB S AGRI SA

Farming in South Africa is generally tough, but it has never been harder or riskier to be in the agricultural business than it is today. Amidst the ongoing drought in the W Western Cape, the ruling party in the province does away with its Day Zero predictions for the City of Cape Town, leaving the agricultural community seething.

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armers in the south-western part of the country are currently experiencing one of the greatest droughts in history. The consequences which, by itself, will be nearly devastating in Western Cape as well as large parts of the W the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape. The impacts of the current drought will directly be felt throughout South Africa in the form of, amongst other things, food price inflation in respect of certain commodities, including fruit, vegetables, wheat and red meat. Indirectly, the effects of the loss of foreign revenue from exports and job-losses will be felt both regionally and throughout the country. Even if the W Western Cape is blessed with normal rainfall during the coming winter months, the effects of the current drought are anticipated to carry through well into the next couple of years. The primary agricultural sector will require enormous capital investment in replacing uprooted or destroyed orchards and vineyards, rebuilding herds of livestock and the rehabilitation of both cultivated and grazing fields. The recovery of the regional agricultural sector may take years, even under best forecast scenarios. 2Q )HEUXDU\ WKH 1DWLRQDO 'LVDVWHU 0DQDJHPHQW &HQWUH 1'0& declared the ongoing drought in the Western W Cape, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape Provinces a National Disaster. The provincial government in the W Western Cape as well as Agri SA had been calling for such a GHFODUDWLRQ VLQFH 7KH GHFODUDWLRQ RI a National Disaster in terms of the National 'LVDVWHU 0DQDJHPHQW $FW RI '0$ LV a very serious matter and falls just short of a declaration of a State of Emergency in terms RI VHFWLRQ RI WKH &RQVWLWXWLRQ ,W HQWDLOV that the minister of cooperative governance DQG WUDGLWLRQDO DIIDLUV 'U =ZHOL 0NKL]H PD\ in consultation with other cabinet ministers LQFOXGLQJ WKH PLQLVWHU RI DJULFXOWXUH forestry and fisheries), make regulations and authorise the issuing of directions concerning, amongst other things. ‡ WKH UHOHDVH RI DQ\ DYDLODEOH UHVRXUFHV RI the national government; ‡ VWHSV WR DOOHYLDWH FRQWDLQ DQG PLQLPLVH agri $35,/ ‡ 0(, 0$< œ bladsy/page

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the effects of the disaster; ‡ VWHSV WKDW PD\ EH QHFHVVDU\ WR SUHYHQW DQ escalation of the disaster; and ‡ WKH IDFLOLWDWLRQ RI UHVSRQVH DQG SRVW disaster recovery and rehabilitation. 7KH 1DWLRQDO $JULFXOWXUDO 0DUNHWLQJ &RXQFLO 1$0& ZKLFK DGYLVHV WKH PLQLVWHU RI agriculture, forestry and fisheries, has brought together a group of stakeholders, including Agri SA, to deal with the devastating effects that the drought has had on the agricultural sector and to come up with a smart drought disaster management plan. This process is currently underway and will deal with the current and future effects of the drought as they unfold. Western Cape The current drought in the W will only be regarded as having been broken should the province’s water supply system UHFRYHU WR DERYH DW ZKLFK WLPH WKH severe water restrictions currently in place PD\ EH OLIWHG 7KLV SRVLWLRQ PD\ EH UHYLVLWHG LQ 1RYHPEHU $OVR LQ WHUPV RI WKH current national water restrictions for the %UHHGH *RXULW] HQ %HUJ 2OLIDQWV &DWFKPHQW 0DQDJHPHQW $UHDV WKH UHJLRQDO KHDG RI the department of water and sanitation has

Janse Rabie

been directed not to release any water from the system dams where agricultural bulk water user associations, irrigation boards or individual water users have depleted their curtailed seasonal bulk volumes. The province’s agricultural sector agreed to abide by these measures and to assist government as much as possible.

Different playing fields Against this backdrop, it appears curious that the leader of the governing Democratic $OOLDQFH SDUW\ LQ WKH :HVWHUQ &DSH 0PXVL 0DLPDQH RQ 0DUFK DQQRXQFHG WKDW WKH predicted Day Zero scenario for the City of Cape Town may be avoided during the current year. The Day Zero scenario was used as a planning and communications tool by the City of Cape Town as an indication as to when the city’s water supply was expected to fail because of the ongoing drought plaguing the city. While it may have focussed some Capetonians’ attention on the severity of the prevailing drought, this Doomsday prediction had previously been questioned by various water-sector role-players, including the agricultural sector. >>> page 65

agri Promosie/Promotional

Is somergraanboere gereed vir beter produksietoestande? JOHAN VAN DEN BERG, SSANTAM LANDBO L U

'LH VRPHUVHLVRHQ KHW ZHHU EHNOHPWRRQ GDW GLH DNNXUDDWKHLG YDQ UHsQYDOYRRUVSHOOLQJV YHHO WH ZHQVH oorlaat om goeie besluite slegs op klimaatsvoorspellings te neem. Ander inligting moet ook in ag geneem word om besluitneming te verbeter. Die beskikbaarheid van grondwater haal byvoorbeeld ‘n klomp risiko uit besluitneming indien dit saam met voorspellings gebruik word. Dit is ook belangrik om eerder na scenario’s te kyk van wat die potensiaal is vir ‘n seisoen en byvoorbeeld ‘n swak, gemiddelde en goeie scenario op te stel met reĂŤnvalvoorspellings en beskikbare grondwater tesame. So byvoorbeeld sal ‘n scenario vir ‘n El Ninovoorspelling asook swak grondwatertoestande baie swakker wees as die scenario met ‘n El Nino-voorspelling en goeie grondwatertoestande voor planttyd.

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erder speel graanpryse en insetkoste ook ‘n rol want dit verlaag of verhoog die gelykbreekpunt en dus die risiko. Die ingesteldheid van die boer teenoor risiko speel ook ‘n rol van hoe daar op ‘n spesifieke scenario gereageer kan/moet word. ‘n Boer met min reserwes/ bates kan nie dieselfde kans vat as ‘n boer wat self ‘n gedeelte van die risiko kan dra met bates/kontant nie.

Langtermynbeplanning Dit is uiters belangrik om ‘n langtermynsiening in te neem ten opsigte van die winsgewendheid en volhoubaarheid van ‘n spesifieke bedryfstak. Sentiment in boerdery is nie ‘n besigheidsbeginsel nie! Daar is ‘n paar vrae wat die produsent JUDDQ YHH HQVRYRRUWV PRHW EHDQWZRRUG om ‘n langtermynstrategie op te stel: ‡ :DW LV P\ SURGXNVLHULVLNR" %\YRRUEHHOG in hoeveel jare kan ek ten minste x-ton mielies per hektaar stroop teen ‘n sekere pryssiening? In die westelike produksiegebiede kan daar ten minste in 3 uit 10 jare swak tot baie swak opbrengste realiseer afhangende van die grondfisiese eienskappe soos waterhouvermoĂŤ of teenwoordigheid van vlak watertafels. In ongeveer 3 uit 10 jare kan rekordopbrengste gestroop word maar dan is prys weer ‘n risiko. In ongeveer 4 uit 10 jare kan gemiddelde opbrengste gestroop word maar as dit volg op ‘n rekordoesjaar is prys ‘n risiko en indien dit nĂĄ ‘n jaar of paar jare van swak opbrengste kom, kan die prys positief wees. Daar moet dus beplan word om in heelwat jare Ăłf swak opbrengste en/Ăłf swak pryse te kry. ‡ ,V GLH SURGXNVLH HHQKHLG HNRQRPLHV JURRW JHQRHJ" 0HW NOHLQHU ZLQVWH PRHW daar groter omset wees. ‡ 'LH RSHHQYROJLQJ YDQ GURs VHLVRHQH Die aard van reĂŤnval is dat daar dikwels periodes van meer as drie agtereenvolgende jare is met swak produksietoestande. Kan dit oorleef

word? Daarteenoor moet goeie produksieseisoene nie as die “normaal� beskou word en net daarvolgens beplan word nie.

Langtermyn-klimaatsvooruitsigte Daar is verskillende tydskale vir beplanning. In die geskiedenis is daar baie voorbeelde van “klimaatsverandering� wat oor tydperke van dekades tot miljoene jare geskied het. Vir beplanningsdoeleindes is dit egter belangrik om oor ‘n tydskaal van enkele jare tot dekades te beplan.

Westelike produksiegebiede Jaarlikse reĂŤnvaltotale neig om ‘n mate van siklisiteit te hĂŞ, dit wil sĂŞ daar is opeenvolgende jare van natter en opeenvolgende jare van droĂŤr toestande. So byvoorbeeld was daar vir Noordwes droĂŤ seisoene of ondergemiddelde reĂŤnvaltoestande vanaf WRW MDDU YDQDI WRW MDDU DVRRN ZHHU YDQDI WRW MDDU 1DWWHU SHULRGHV KHW JHORRS YDQDI WRW MDDU WRW MDDU YDQDI WRW MDDU DVRRN YDQDI WRW MDDU 5HsQYDOYHUVSUHLGLQJ RRU PDDQGH het egter soms produksietoestande positief of negatief beĂŻnvloed binne hierdie nat en droĂŤ periodes. NĂĄ ten minste vyf jare van ondergemiddelde reĂŤnval is die kanse nou goed dat daar in die volgende seisoene beter reĂŤnvaltoestande verwag kan word en dus in ‘n natter siklus inbeweeg kan word. Dit word ondersteun deur die sogenaamde sonvleksiklus wat naby aan die draaipunt is van afnemende aktiwiteit om in stygende aktiwiteit in te beweeg. Die meeste groot droogtes het voorgekom in die 5 tot 6 jaar van afnemende aktiwiteit en beter reĂŤnval in die periode van stygende aktiwiteit ZDDULQ RQV ELQQH GLH YROJHQGH MDDU JDDQ inbeweeg). Versteurings deur El NiĂąo/La 1LxD GLH ,QGLHVH 2VHDDQ PHW WURSLHVH siklone en ander faktore kan egter enkele jare in hierdie siklus beĂŻnvloed.

Oostelike produksiegebiede Die siklus lyk bietjie anders vir byvoorEHHOG 0SXPDODQJD +LHU LV HHUVWHQV ÂśQ tendens dat reĂŤnval besig is om af te neem oor die langtermyn en lyk dit asof veral droĂŤr siklusse meer intens en langer word. So byvoorbeeld was daar ‘n periode van ongeveer vyf jaar met ondergemiddelde UHsQYDO YDQDI WRW ZHHU YDQDI WRW MDDU YDQDI WRW MDDU HQ WRH ÂśQ LQWHQVH HQ ODQJ SHULRGH YDQ MDDU YDQDI WRW 9DQDI WRW KHW RQGHUJHPLGGHOGH UHsQYDO ZHHU begin voorkom. Die dinamika in die oostelike produksiegebiede is egter bietjie anders as LQ GLH ZHVWHOLNH GHOH 2QGHUJHPLGGHOGH reĂŤnval in die oostelike produksiegebiede kan dikwels meer positief as negatief wees aangesien te veel reĂŤn en te min hitteeenhede dikwels ‘n groter beperkende faktor is as ondergemiddelde reĂŤnval. Daar moet onthou word dat die langtermyngemiddelde UHsQYDO YLU 0SXPDODQJD 3URYLQVLH LV RQJHYHHU PP SHU MDDU HQ DV GDDU RQJHYHHU minder reĂŤnval voorkom is dit nog steeds ongeveer 600 mm per jaar. Wat is die moontlike implikasies van ‘n W scenario van beter reĂŤnvaltoestande in die weste en swakker reĂŤnvaltoestande in die ooste asook ander bydraende faktore? ‡ ,QWHUQDVLRQDDO KHW YHUEHWHUGH graanproduksietegnologie gesorg dat groot voorrade opgebou is. Dit plaas ‘n demper op internasionale graanpryse. ‡ ,Q 6XLG $IULND KHW WHJQRORJLH GLHVHOIGH tendens gevolg en kan met klein oppervlaktes groot volumes geproduseer word. Verbeterde reĂŤnvaltoestande in die weste en effens minder reĂŤn en meer hitte-eenhede in die ooste in die volgende seisoene kan surplusproduksie tot nuwe vlakke voer. ‡ 9LU GLH LQGLYLGXHOH SURGXVHQW KRX GLW ÂśQ groot risiko in want nou moet hy baie kompeterend wees om meer te produseer om lae pryse se effek te neutraliseer. Daar moet gejaag word na rekordopbrengste >>> bladsy 85 agri $35,/ ‡ 0(, 0$< Âś bladsy/page

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