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18 The Manly Holiday Gift Guide Jason Vaile is back with some cool ideas for the man in your life -- or for you to subtly hint to your significant other to buy for you!
6 World News SPECIAL FEATURES
18 Holiday Gift Guide 24 2015 Gold Forecast 38 Firearms NUMISMATICS
24 2015 Gold and Metals Forecast
12 Collecting Modern Coins
John W. Garibald makes the rare appearance away from the back page and provides the AHA Forecast for the coming year.
32 American Silver 58 Modern Numismatic LIFESTYLE
44 Private Jets
44 Commercial Flying? Not For This Guy Ever wondered how you might be able to take the next step and fly private? Ditch the commercial carriers with Gabe Benson as he shows you some more appealing options.
50 JustLuxe PRECIOUS METALS SPOTLIGHT
54 More Than Metal 64 Licensed To Coin MINING & MINERALS
70 Mining News
64 Licensed to Coin Numismatics in modern times have bridged the gap between coin and entertainment enthusiasts. Check out some of these cool innovations.
REFERENCE
76 Preferred Dealers 78 Events 80 Hindsight
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EDITOR’S NOTE
DECEMBER 2014 / JANUARY 2015
PRESENTED BY: AHA Metals, LLC
A Collector’s Dream
T
VP CONTENT: Brad Hastedt EDITORIAL SUPPORT: Kevin Thompson VP AD SALES: Mike Obert
hat is what you will find inside this latest issue of American Hard Assets. Welcome back again as we wind down our second year in print and online at www.ahametals.com.
This issue, our focus is all bullion and specifically anything collectible. From licensed items of worldwide fame to sports-themed numismatic wonders, this issue is all about the collector and what moves the needle in investing. And we will still be bringing you all that you’ve come to expect from the AHA team with loads of content on gold and silver updates and where we see it going in 2015, as well as great info on mining news, lifestyle, firearms, and more.
SUBSCRIPTIONS: Bailey Chamberlain LAYOUT DESIGN: Noel M. Macasero, J.K. Monte de Ramos, Open Look Creative Solutions
FEATURE WRITERS: Eavan Moore, Hayden Tubbs, Jason Vaile, Abe Elias, Gabe Benson, Louis Golino, Andrew Salzberg, Brett Tau, John W. Garibald
CONTRIBUTORS: Christy Stewart, Julie Hatfield, Mila Pantovich
DISCLAIMER: American Hard Assets is 100% American owned.
It wouldn’t be an AHA editor’s note without our steady reminder to please visit our website at www.ahametals.com. It’s there you will find the latest metals news and content with great pieces from our partners, realtime updates, exchange rates, prices, and more. This year, more original content has been posted on the site from our great team of industry writers. Please take a look.
All contents of American Hard Assets (AHA) are for information purposes only. AHA does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the contents. None of the information contained herein constitutes a solicitation, offer, opinion, or reccomendation by AHA to buy or sell any security or commodity, nor legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice or services regarding the profitability or suitability of any security, commodity or investment.
We’re looking ahead to 2015 here at American Hard Assets HQ and we are excited to bring you a look at different versions of collectible bullion. As always, don’t hesitate to give us feedback on the magazine or online to help us get better. Thank you for continuing your commitment to this publication and keep up with American Hard Assets for all your metals and asset news in the future. Good Investing! American Hard Assets Editorial Staff
All commentary and advice in this publication is of a general nature only, and doesn’t consider your individual circumstances or financial objectives. You should always consult a licensed financial advisor for your personal investment advice. Please do your own research.
CONTACT US FOR ADVERTISING Publisher Inquiries: bhastedt@ahametals.com Ad Inquiries: mobert@ahametals.com
SUBSCRIPTIONS www.ahametals.com 1.877.695.1258 P.O. Box 835433 Richardson, Texas 75083-5433 American Hard Assets is a bi-monthly publication and subscriptions are available for one year at $29.99.
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H A R D A S S E T U P D A T E S | World News
World News Updates
Historic Cullinan Mine Uncovers New 232.08-Carat White Diamond Source: CNBC
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232.08-carat white diamond was recently unearthed in South Africa’s Cullinan Mine. The mine is famed as the one which produced the largest uncut diamond ever recovered – the Cullinan Diamond, which was tagged at 3,100-carats. Recovered in 1905, it was cut into brilliants which became part of Britain’s Crown Jewels. The new find, while of lesser value, reprises the reputation for Cullinan as a place where large diamond gems are found – it is appraised value stands between $10 to $16 million. The Northeast Province, which is also northeast of Pretoria, still is the per-eminent mineral and precious metals belt in South Africa, if not the world. The Cullinan forms part of a complex of mines in this part of the world. It is owned by Petra Diamonds, an independent diamond mining concern, also owns the historic Kimberley Mine and four other historic diamond mines – a majority of them bought up from DeBeers Consolidated, which was operating them in the red. It operates mines in South Africa and Tanzania, and two of the world’s biggest diamond mines in Botswana. In a press statement, Petra Diamonds said “[The] stone is...of exceptional size and clarity, and is a magnificent example of the 6 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
large, high quality diamonds for which the mine is know [for].” It has no measurable impurities, another gem trait the Cullinan is known for. Market reaction to the news was positive – Petra’s stock price jumped the day after the find was announced on Tuesday, September 9. Petra Diamonds, which was founded by Adonies Pouroulis in 1997, with a declared revenue of over $473 million last year, but did not provide the appraised value for the rough gem. It was Numis Securities which set provided the estimated value analysis: “We estimate a sales price...$10...to $15 million, given Gem Diamonds’ recent sale of Type II white at about $70,000 per carat and assuming some losses for cutting/polishing.” Petra expects it to be sold in the second quarter of its fiscal year, in OctoberDecember. The outcome for another big gem is also being eagerly awaited by investors – a rare 122-52-carat blue diamond with an estimated value of more than $35 million, recovered earlier in the year. In that same period, Petra sold a 29.6-carat blue diamond at a value of more than $25 million.
World News | H A R D A S S E T U P D A T E S
World News Updates
Comic Books, Collectible Paraphernalia Reach Super Investment Levels
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oes a comic books’ sale price of $3.2 million make it a “super” investment? Yes, it does. A new list of collectible paraphernalia from famed Hollywood movie sets or sports heroes and historic games have the potential to follow this route. Things like James Bond”s Aston-Martin, Audrey Hepburn’s “Breakfast at Tiffany’s” dress or Babe Ruth’s baseball jersey?
Source: Millionaire Corner
kids’ stuff in the auction/collectibles industry. The books which featured the debuts of Batman and Spider-Man have both fetched over $1 million at auction. In America, Picassos or Rembrandts seldom come into the collectible investments picture. The icons of pop culture are “time capsule” pieces, recording the art and dreams of a historic era. This is the base for their ever-increasing value among hardcore investors and collections which focus on American symbols.
The comic book in connection, which was sold in an eBay auction (exact amount: $3,207,852), was Action Comics issue number one, the historic comics which featured the first time Superman saw print. With an original price of 10¢, it is to comic books what the T206 Honus Below are a few more of the same items, one of them a James Bond Wagner baseball card is to sports paraphernalia. item that falls under Hollywood memorabilia: • The famous Marilyn Monroe “subway dress” was sold in a 2011 It was an especially worthy edition, being one of two with a grade auction for $5.6 million. The iconic subway scene could be watched of 9 out of 10. The other one was sold at auction for $2.1 million, and in “The Seven Year Itch.” counted Nicolas Cage as one of its owners. There are an estimated 50 • The jersey Babe Ruth wore during his opening season with the to 100 Action Comics Number One in existence, and fan wisdom says Yankees. In 2012, it was sold for over $4.4 million. that only a few of them will be ever be converted for cash at auctions in • The British racing green Aston Martin D85 was 007’s wheels in the coming years. “Goldfinger” and “Thunderball.” It sold for $4.1 million in 2010. • The red leather outfit that Michael Jackson wore in the now classic Action Comics Number One and other collectibles number as things “Thriller” video was sold in 2011, for nearly $2 million. that have been rendered iconic by the devotion of large populations • “The Wizard of Oz” is the movie where the Holy Grail of Hollywood of loyal, faithful fans who treasure their symbolic value, and the value Memorabilia were first seen – a pair of Judy Garland’s ruby slippers, of their histories through the years. The result is super investment level the last surviving pair after Leo DiCaprio helped in buying one for the prices, which spells a new heyday for personally collected items that collection in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. That have had lasting impact on popular American history. How nostalgia last pair was sold for $660,000 in 2000. They are now valued in the and fanship has grown into such high prices is, itself, a unique historical millions. phenomenon. • Audrey Hepburn’s racy little black dress from “Breakfast at Tiffany’s” sold for $923,187 in 2006. According to a study, collectibles rank second after real estate as • The second high value collectible to come from “The Wiz” is the Bert millionaires’ alternative investment of choice. It was conducted by Lahr-designed Lion costume made of real lion pelts. Animal rights Spectrem’s Millionaire Corner as a fourth quarter of 2013 wealth level activists aside, it was sold in 2006 for a price of $805,000. study. Comic books, while being classic childhood standards, are not www.ahametals.com American Hard Assets | 7
H A R D A S S E T U P D A T E S | World News
World News Updates
The World’s Most Expensive Apartment, Perhaps
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nvision yourself living the luxurious, pampered life of the superrich and an apartment which fits that lifestyle. Fancy a waterslide that snakes down from your dance floor and shoots you straight out to your swimming pool below? How about a 360° wraparound view of the crystal clear Mediterranean Sea from your private penthouse? Believe it, such a property exists...and in this alternate dimension you live in, it took $400 million from your cash flow. Tiny Monaco has the most claim to being the Jewel of the Med. Situated right in the middle of the French Riviera, it keeps enhancing its reputation as the playground for the rich and famous, rakes in cash from tourism and exclusive gaming venues, and takes opulent care of its resident millionaires – who are one out of three in Monaco’s entire population. Soon, Monaco may garner the reputation as more than just the site of its glamorous Grand Prix and many casinos, as it has become home to what could be the world’s most expensive apartment complex. I say complex since the apartment in question is obviously not your typical duplex. The property in question is a quintuplex dubbed “Sky Penthouse,” in the soon-to-be-finished Tour Odeon Monaco.
The apartment is a 3,300 square meter glass and steel eyrie – or better yet, a dragon’s nest that you could fill up with objects d’art, gold and silver accouterments, opulent collections of collectibles from around the world, and whatnot. It stands at the top of a double skyscraper of 70 apartments which towers 170 meters high over the principality. Tour Odeon offers a sybarite paradise’s pleasures without an eyeblink. You, the first among equals in future residents, will have a five-star experience overseen by a 24/7 concierge who will command a complex of entertainment area (with private movie room and lounge) and wellness center – gym, sauna, private spas and a selection of pools. One of them is the one mentioned earlier, accessible via a slide from within your quintuplex. It’s been developed by Group Marzacco, which specializes in luxury real estate, has made the penthouse quintuplex of your 8 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
Source: CNBC
dreams. All you need do is take over its five floors which has five bedrooms, a kitchen on each floor connected by an elevator, a living room, a dining room, your private home cinema, a sauna and that pool you access through the snakey slide. The tower is scheduled for completion in September 2015, with the Marzocco family putting it up in the market at an estimated €300 million or $400 million – and that is why it can become the world’s most expensive apartment. In an article in the French magazine which features Niccolo Marzacco, he is given to quote that “A property like this one is bought, not sold.” Monaco is no stranger to “ultra-prime” properties, however. In its 2014 Monaco Residential Market report, real estate agent Savills described the city as “a rare gem of particular value in the vault of ultra-wealth.” It has an area that is 6 percent the size of Manhattan and 3 percent of Hong Kong Island, so that while demand is congested, the demand for property is particularly high among its ultra-wealthy. However, it is not sure whether these ultra-wealthy will try to snap up this $400 million apartment, as Savill’s prediction says that the billionaire residential property boom beats slower at the heart of the opulent enclave. Yolanda Barnes, director of world research at Savills, says that Monaco is in a league of its own, and she is right. It’s a “honeypot for ultra-high net-worth individuals,” she told CNBC in a phone interview. With land and available properties scarce, the principality “will have a strong property market regardless of what happens to other kinds of billionaire properties,” she added. Furthermore, this type of property is rare and “rarity is incredibly important” for the super-wealthy, according to Barnes. “So too is prominence and the importance of Monaco as a location in the billionaire real estate market.” Despite the whopping price tag, Sky Penthouse’s large size means the penthouse might not claim the record amount per square foot. The record for this currently belong to the owners of 15 Central Park West, NYC. They bought their apartment for $13,000 per square foot earlier this year.
World News | H A R D A S S E T U P D A T E S
World News Updates
22,000 Roman Coins Unearthed, Dubbed “The Seaton Down Hoard” Source: www.dailymail.co.uk
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n amateur detectorist builder of East Devon’s Seaton Down unearthed a trove of 22,000 Roman copper coins worth up to £100,000 or over $160,000. The detectorist whose name is Laurence Egerton discovered the hoard of copper-alloy coins, then spends the next three nights sleeping at the site to guard his find. It is one of the largest cache of old coins ever found in the UK. Egerton, 51, made the discovery as he went over land near Seaton with his metal detector. With his discovery came the timely fear that someone would steal it if he went home. He had to wait at the site until archaeologists came. Even then, he waited for them to excavate the site before giving up his watch. It’s been dubbed “The Seaton Down Hoard” and it was declared treasure at a coroner’s inquest in Devon earlier this September. The coins date back to the 4th century and the supposition is that it could have been buried by a private individual or legionnaire for safekeeping, but due to some unforeseen event, it was never recovered. It was probably buried in haste – in a time of emergencies that saw Roman power waning, and all its functionaries retreating in haste to Rome.
The coin trove (pictured below) will be eligible for acquisition by interested museums after it is valued by the Treasure Valuation Committee, which is made up of independent experts who advise the Foreign Secretary. Seaton Down Hoard now ranks third in the list of largest hoards ever found, after The Frome Hoard (52,503 coins) which was found in 2010, and the hoard of 22,703 coins found in Dorset’s Nether Compton in 1989. Mr. Egerton’s find is remarkably well-prese ved and is will be an excellent addition to 4th century collections.
The Seaton Down Hoard in History Bill Horner, Devon Country Archaeologist, says that the Roman copper-alloy coins date back to between 260 AD and 348 AD. They bear the image of Emperor Constantine, members of his family, his co-emperors, predecessors and successors. The time was critical for all Europe and world history. It saw Britain’s fortune fluctuating, but it was relatively quiet compared to www.ahametals.com American Hard Assets | 9
H A R D A S S E T U P D A T E S | World News
the other hand, in a world where most people were living close to subsistence level and would have few if any savings, it’s pretty impressive that someone amassed enough money to live on for a year or so.
Bidding Started by the Royal Albert Memorial Museum
Photo Courtesy by British Museum/APEX
other parts of the empire. The invasions and civil wars ravaging the European continent did not reach Britain, and therefore there was a measure of economic prosperity in that province. “Romanized farms or villas, including several in East Devon, were at their richest,” according to Mr. Horner. Ultimately, the province was drawn into Imperial power struggles, and the rise of Germanic, Irish and Caledonian tribes meant that the frequency of attacks increased, resulting in the rapid decline and, eventually, end of Roman rule. “Coastal areas such as East Devon were on the frontline, and this may be the context for the coin hoard,” continues Horner. In that era, there was no equivalent to banks, and those who might have been able to keep it safe were themselves in danger. A good, deep hole in the ground was probably the most secure place that the person who buried it could think of at such a short notice during the theoretical emergency. Whoever made this particular deposit went away on a long journey and never came back for it.
How the Hoard is Valued In comparative valuations, the Frome Hoard was valued at £320,000 (nearly $520,000) – so the estimate for the collection is at £100,000. The Frome Hoard had more value, however, since it contained a mixture of silver and copper, and was therefore more valuable. At the time the hoard was buried, it would have amounted to four gold coins, or solidi, which would have provided the ration of two soldiers for one year, or a worker’s pay for two years.
The Royal Albert Memorial Museum (RAMM) in Exeter, which already houses a large collection of local Romano-British objects, has launched a fundraising campaign to purchase the coins. The original discovery was made in November 2013, and its surfacing as news today would be surprising if not for the fact that Mr. Egerton and the landowner, Clinton Devon Estates, were probably locked in a custodial battle for the stuff. RAMM has said it would love to keep the hoard (pictured being uncovered below) in Devon so it can be seen by the public for the first time in over 1,500 years The law that applies for buried ancient treasure is the Treasure Act of 1996. Egerton was operating on the Estates’ private land, but he had their license to do so. The site is near the previously excavated site of a Roman villa at Honeyditches in East Devon and the owners probably thought Egerton’s chances of finding anything were too slim. That makes the find all the rare . The coins were in a deep pit and may have once been held in a bag which did not survive the centuries. Bill Horner’s team of archaeologists, and they turned it over to another team at the British Museum to have them cleaned them up. Mr. Egerton had the right to call them up to arbitrate what was developing as a litigious issue. The fact that they number as the most well-preserved specimen of coins from that era may have caused some deep interest among Clinton Devon Estates’ management. The danger of the find not properly attributed to him caused Egerton’s three-day vigil over the site, but he remains mum on what or who he had to fend off (if any) during those three long nights. In any case, Egerton reported the find to Clinton Devon Estates, in accordance with the Treasure Act.
Professor Neville Morley from Bristol University says that current knowledge of ancient prices is very patchy indeed. The purchasing power of money varied enormously over time and space. At some point, the hoard would have amounted to the equivalent to a soldier’s salary for two years; at another point, it would have bought the services of a skilled craftsman for about 80 days. In probability, it could have bought around 1,000 pints of Gallic beer (or double that quantity for cheaper Egyptian beer) or it bought enough for a person’s two-year supply of grain. If the hoard were to have been converted to modern figures, even with more than 16 centuries of inflation factored in, it would obviously not be the amount of money that could buy a nice country estate. On Photo Courtesy by Lawrence Egerton/APEX
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World News | H A R D A S S E T U P D A T E S
Goodman Egerton Speaks Mr Egerton says: “It’s by far the biggest find I’ve ever had. It really doesn’t get any better than this. Between finding the hoard and the archaeologists excavating the site, I slept in my car alongside it for three nights to guard it.” “On [that] occasion,” Egerton continues, “the ground where I was working was quite flinty and I found what I thought were two Roman coins which is actually quite unusual in Devon...As I began working in a grid formation in the surrounding area I had a signal on the metal detector which means that there is probably iron involved.” “Most detectors are set up to ignore iron but I decided to dig the earth at that spot and immediately reached some iron ingots which
were laid directly on top of the coins,” he further explains. “The next shovel was full of coins – they just spilled out over the field.” In conclusion, we have this from Bill Horner: “Our archaeologists and the team at the British Museum have reported that the majority of the coins are so well preserved that they were able to date them very accurately. This is very unusual for Devon because the county as a whole has slightly acidic soil which leads to metals corroding.” The journey of 22,000 coins is nearing an important ending. How it is resolved by Mr. Egerton, the British Museum and the Clinton Devon Estates will be of high interest to collectors worldwide. For a certainty, this is momentous news not only for archaeology, but for numismatics.
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N U M I S M A T I C S | Collecting Modern Coins
Collecting Modern Exclusive Coins F
By Hayden Tubbs, VP, Modern Coin Mart
oreign coin collectors have always been far-sighted in terms of seeking out the most interesting and unique examples of coinage from around the world. Over the last decade, collectors have helped propel to popularity the exciting world of exclusive, or custom-minted, world coins.
What is an Exclusive World Coin? By definition, an exclusive world coin is a custom issue designed and facilitated by a private company with exclusive rights to distribute the coins worldwide. These coins are usually minted by an established world mint using the effigy of another country. One of the best known examples is the Perth Mint in Australia and its use of 12 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
the Tuvalu effigy. While all coins struck by Perth on Australian legal tender must have Australian themes, this rule does not apply when using the Tuvalu effigy. Under the Tuvalu name, Perth can produce interesting and popular designs for the international marketplace that might not otherwise be relevant to Australia. The Mint of Poland is another example of an established world mint that produces not only legal-tender Polish coins, but also mints a larger variety of collector coins on the effigies of other countries. These coins are struck for other governments or for private companies that have leased the rights to an effigy used by a smaller and less prominent country such as Niue, Tokelau, Burundi or Andorra.
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N U M I S M A T I C S | Collecting Modern Coins
Tiny island countries in the South Pacific do not produce any coins. Two of the most well-known Pacific Island nations, Niue and Tokelau, utilize the already established currency of New Zealand - the New Zealand Dollar. When these small countries lease the rights to produce legal tender coins,they are able not only to produce extra income for the country, but also to allow collectors an opportunity to own coins representing some often-overlooked lands.
Creative License Coins issued by officially sanctioned government mints have very strict design requirements. They must have a theme that directly relates to the issuing country and must pass multiple levels of scrutiny, often to the point of approval by the country’s senate or head of state. Exclusive custom issues are not held to these same standards, thus opening a world of options in design topics. Some of the recent popular exclusive issues have covered famous ships, literary works, warplanes, lunar animals, endangered animals, the fall of the Berlin Wall, Mickey Mouse and more.
An exclusive world coin is a custom issue designed and facilitated by a private company with exclusive rights to distribute the coins worldwide. Many private mints also produce a variety of different collector coins. These private mints have no authority to mint legal-tender coins on their own, but strike coins for private companies that have obtained authorization to produce a coin using a country’s effigy. Perhaps one of the best known private mints is B.H. Mayer in Germany. Mayer Mint has been minting coins since 1871 and is renowned for both the quality of its issues and its ability to mint uniquely shaped coins. The popular Tokelau Lunar Collector coin series has been produced at Mayer since the initial Lunar Snake release in 2013.
Small Nations Receive Worldwide Exposure Exclusive coins offer collectors the opportunity to add coins from countries that would otherwise be unavailable. Many smaller countries in Africa and Asia (such as Eritrea, Liberia, Burundi and Benin) strike coins only for circulation. Short of acquiring new rolls of coins directly from these countries, a collector would not have the opportunity to add examples of these nations’ coinage to a collection. 14 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
Collecting Modern Coins | N U M I S M A T I C S
The variety of different design topics for exclusive issues opens an avenue into a very exciting series of coins. History Lessons in a Box The educational opportunities of exclusive coins are immense. Official government issued coins have to focus on the big events, the headliners. Exclusive coins can depict unusual history lessons or events that are important, but would otherwise not be featured on a coin. These issues also allow designers greater freedom to show an historic event from a different angle or from a more personal perspective. Many governments have laws regarding who can be portrayed on a coin. Exclusive coins, however, can highlight unsung heroes or controversial figures. And finally, private companies often devote a large portion of time to developing background information on current designs. A synopsis of this information is included on an issue’s Certificate of Authenticity. Combined with often astonishing and creative custom-themed packaging, these are truly history lessons in a box.
Endangered animals are a popular design theme; with elephants, rhinos, tigers, pandas and rare birds depicted on coins of varying shapes and metals. Recently, it has become popular to donate a small portion of the proceeds from sales of such coins to an organization that promotes the conservation and protection of endangered species. A contemporary series by an Australian company was accompanied by a donation directly to the World Wildlife Fund with every purchase. These coins not only provided collectors with the opportunity to add a beautifully matched series to their collection, but also to play a small part in protecting and increasing awareness of these animals. The variety of different design topics for exclusive issues opens an avenue into a very exciting series of coins. For many collectors assembling a set with new releases of different designs brings a level of enjoyment that cannot be matched by assembling an annual set with an identical design every year. These sets follow a common theme, style, weight, size and shape but can provide a great amount of variety between each design.
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N U M I S M A T I C S | Collecting Modern Coins
With limited availability, a quick sell-out and increased value on the secondary market is possible. Limited Mintages When compared to standard issues produced by official governments, exclusive coins have very limited mintages. Mintages are usually no more than a few thousand, with final numbers of 1,500 or less fairly common. These mintages are minute compared to modern US commemoratives with mintages that number in the hundreds of thousands. These low-mintage coins create an interesting opportunity for both collectors and investors. With limited availability, a quick sell-out and increased value on the secondary market is possible.
A prime example of this is the 2 Oz. Silver Tiffany Art series released by a European company. This finely-detailed coin series, which commemorated styles of architecture, inlaid of a real piece of Tiffany glass upon each coin. Each piece of glass was the same color, but was unique in its individual appearance. First released in 2004 with a mintage of 999 pieces, this series has soared in popularity and subsequent releases through 2014 have quickly sold out. The first year of issue coin from 2004 recently sold for nearly $3,000 in an online auction. Another with similar performance was the Deadly and Dangerous 1 Oz Silver series, struck by the Perth Mint for an Australian dealer. This series launched in 2006 and featured 16 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
Collecting Modern Coins | N U M I S M A T I C S
spiders, scorpions, eels, snakes, crocodiles and other Australian animals that humans should stay far away from. Even with a mintage of 5,000 coins,the first year of issue coin- Red Back Spider - now sells for more than $600.
Buy What you Love Purchasing exclusive coins for investment is not without risk. If a topic is too obscure or overdone, the series may never gain traction. Even so, there are instances when a series did not catch on until later coins in were released – prompting a mad dash to obtain the early issues. If you are purchasing as a collector, you should do your research, but also remember one of the cardinal rules of collecting: buy what appeals to your own tastes.
Buy what appeals to your own tastes. Acquiring exclusive world coins is a fulfilling way to add variety to your collection through a diverse selection of countries and topics. Your choices are endless and provide an opportunity to assemble a lasting collection that represents YOU, as shown through your choices. The world is an open book. Have fun collecting!
Acquiring exclusive coins can be a difficult task, but part of the joy for collectors is the thrill of the hunt. With low mintage exclusives by dealers on other continents, many coins will never make it to your local coin shop. As with all modern esoteric items, the Internet can be your friend. You may have to pay an additional premium for international shipping, but if you search for something, chances are you can find it. Your best option, however, is to work with an established dealer of world coins that focuses on continually stocking a diverse selection of new world coins. www.ahametals.com American Hard Assets | 17
S P E C I A L F E A T U R E | Holiday Gift Guide
The Manly Man Holiday Gift Guide
By Jason Vaile
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s the holiday season approaches, you can sit back and either accept the fact that you’re going to receive some well-intentioned but essentially lame gifts from your loved ones, or you can do something about it. No more neck ties that match nothing that you own, or random gadget tools whose solitary purpose is to take up space on the pegboard in the garage. It’s time you took control of what people think you would want for a gift. Forget the heartfelt, personal sentiment they might invest in your present. Show them what you really want! Use this gift guide as a checklist, circling the ones that touch your heart with a big red Sharpie with lots of arrows pointing to it and leave it where no one can miss it. After all, the holidays are all about you, right?
long gone. Get over it and move on with your life. But for nostalgic purposes, you can slap a bunch of your favorite 80’s tunes onto this USB stick wrapped in clever cassette tape packaging. The 1GB USB stick will hold about 900 songs, so this might be the longest mix tape in recorded history. The top flap opens so that you can write down the song titles or message to the loved one receiving the gift. Available on Amazon for $29.95.
Tribord’s Easybreath Snorkeling Mask
Cassette Tape USB Stick Do you miss the old days of mixing awesome song tapes and cranking it up on your boombox or car stereo? Well, those days are
Ever wish you had gills? Here’s the next best thing. You’ll feel just like Aquaman, swimming through the ocean without a tube jammed into your mouth. It features the same depth restrictions as a traditional snorkel, but with less hassle. With your full face completely enclosed in the mask, you can breathe easily through your nose or mouth. The mask features 180-degree visibility 18 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
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S P E C I A L F E A T U R E | Holiday Gift Guide and the snorkel has an automatic plug at the top when it’s immersed to keep you from breathing in water. It’s available at Decathlon.com for a swimmingly good deal of $60.
Designed by Mia Schmallenbach, the blades are made from a single block of pure stainless steel. The set includes a 3-1/4” inch paring knife, a 5-1/4 - inch utility knife, an 8 - inch chef knife, a 8-3/4” -inch slicer, and matching stainless steel block. Available at onemoregadget.com when you slice off $700.
Harman Kardon Soundsticks Men like loud stuff. Men like speakers. Men like cool toys. Harman Kardon mixes all of those into a sleek and sexy three piece speaker system called the Soundsticks III. The curvy, clear design employs a new computer-optimized, multi-band parametric equalization and Harman’s unique “capacitance touch” control buttons to crank up the volume. The mini stereo jack connection allows you to enjoy awesome audio from any of your devices, such as digital music players, computers, stereos and portable listening devices. The subwoofer puts out a whopping 40watts, impressive for such a compact unit. Available at HarmanKardon.com for $169.95.
Tateossian Dinosaur Bone Cufflinks
Cigar of the Month Club This is the gift that keeps on giving. Reward yourself once a month with a stogie in the mail from Cigar International. Each month you get a variety of aged, premium cigars from the world’s finest regions, crafted by the biggest names in cigar making: Macanudo, Romeo y Jullieta, Rocky Patel, Cohiba. The exclusive cigar club selects from their massive inventory of premium, rare, small batch and latest releases cigars, and delivers them directly to your doorstep. Four cigars and an “Executive Summary” of the selections show up each month in the mail. It is available at cigarinternational.com for $365 annually.
Tateossian is famous for creating the world’s most cutting edge and quirky cufflinks. The Spazio collection features rare stones and materials from around the world, including dinosaur bones. Set in sterling silver, there are only 25 of each pair available. The dinosaur bones used for this collection originate in Moab, Utah, and are some of the most colorful ever found in the world. No
wonder the designer, Robert Tateossian, is world renowned as the “King of Cufflinks.” Strap a T-Rex on your shirt for a fossilizing $1,200 at tateossian.com.
Burberry Alligator Handle Umbrella
Deglon Meeting Knife Set Whether you fancy yourself the next Gordon Ramsay or even the next Hannibal Lecter, Deglon has a beautiful cutlery set that has both form and function. The nesting doll design of these precision blades cuts down on storage space, but you will want to proudly display this as a work of art. 20 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
Men can walk in the rain and get wet... we’re manly, so that’s not a problem. But gentlemen, well, gentlemen stroll in the rain with a fine umbrella. The Burberry Alligator Handle Umbrella provides both style and swagger for this most mundane of tasks. Stylish enough to keep your finest suit from getting soaked yet manly enough to say, “Yes, I just killed and skinned this alligator
Holiday Gift Guide | S P E C I A L F E A T U R E
that I wrapped around the handle.” The tailored umbrella shade comes in a Deep Maroon Elderberry or Dark Racing Green. It’s available at Burberry.com for $1,495.
make sure this thing is legal in your area before you put it on your list. Originally based off the design of an AK-47, it was drastically modified to operate with the much larger shotgun shells. It will blow a nice hole in your wallet at $2,500 from one of the many on-line firearms websites
Transparent Canoe Kayak
Darth Vader Life-sized Action Figure
Wonder Woman had her invisible jet, and now you can have a significantly manlier invisible canoe. The transparent hull is made of the same durable polymer that comprises the cockpit canopies of supersonic fighter jets. This will allow you to see right down into the mouth of the giant great white shark that is about to torpedo you from below. The boat supports up to a 425 lbs. for you and another plump rower. Available at the impossible to spell HammacherSchlemmer.com (yeah, just Google it) for $2500.
What happened on May 25th, 1977? If you answered, “The original Star Wars was released”, then you may be a big enough Star Wars geek to add this to your list. Gentle Giants created a life-sized version of the original Darth Vader action figure. Digitally scanned from an authentic mint-condition 3 3/4” figure and reproduced to a Sith-like height of six feet tall, this fully-articulated mammoth also includes an authentic extending lightsaber and vinyl cape. Darth commands $2,600 at gentlegiantltd.com.
Pac-Man Arcade Machine Cocktail Table Promise your spouse that you’ll spend hours locked away in your man cave if she gets you this Pac-Man Table. It comes
Grizzly 8.5” Magfed Shotgun Make sure you’re ready for the zombie apocalypse with this 30-round, drumfed shotgun from Saiga. Originally manufactured in Russia, these 12-gauge shotguns will clear a wide path to freedom through the advancing zombie horde. It accepts both 2-3/4” and 3” shells. The barrel is cut down to a mere 18 1/4”, so www.ahametals.com American Hard Assets | 21
S P E C I A L F E A T U R E | Holiday Gift Guide
packed with 13 retro arcade favorites: Pac-Man, Ms. Pac-Man, Galaga, Rally X, Mappy, Xevious, Galaxian, Pac-Mania, Rolling and Dig Dug! Fitted with a 19” diagonal LCD screen and authentic arcade controls, the box is available in a wood-grain or black finish. It plugs into any AC outlet and no pocket full of quarters required. Of course, you’ll need 11,580 quarters to cover the $2,895 price tag from sharperimage.com.
Armasight PVS 7 Nightvision Goggles Tired of stumbling to the toilet in the dark every night? Then add these bad boys to your list. The Armasight PVS 7 Nightvision Goggles are used in combat by the United States military. A Generation 3 ghost-image intensifier tube produces excellent black-and-white images. The brightness control automatically adjusts the built-in image tube to produce the highest quality resolution under varying light conditions. They can be used as a handheld unit, or you can strap these cool goggles on your noggin with the included head mount. Comes with a two year manufacturer’s warranty. So illuminate your way over to Cabelas.com and pick up a pair for a mere $3,416.
Wurlitzer Jukebox Unleash your inner Fonz by punching one of these onto your wish list. The iconic record players of the big band era became so popular after the end of prohibition that the Hungarian word for jukebox is actually Wurlitzer. The vintage wood design and colored rolling bubbles make one of these necessary for any corner in your man cave. Most models play both sides of the smaller 45 rpm records and can hold up to 50 different records, giving you 100 song choices. Wurlitzer stopped producing them in 2013, but still makes replacement parts. Several different models in varying conditions are available on Ebay for around $5,800.
AcuTouch 9500 Massage Chair E.A.T. Forte Turntable Have a need to fill that hipster circle-shaped void in your heart with some vinyl? It’s going to sound a lot better on Euro Audio Team’s high end turntable. For you record player geeks, it’s a fixed subchasis design in the tradition of the great 1970’s direct drive that features a double motor unit, massive platter with a string belt drive. To the rest of us, it’s just really cool looking. You can put your needle down on the upgraded zebrano-striped finish for around $5,500 at Europeanaudioteam.com.
Ease this relaxing chair onto your list for taking a load off after a long day at the office. The chair ties into the Apple device of your choosing via wireless Bluetooth. The IOS app contains sixteen preprogrammed massages. The chair’s AccuPoint Detection system scans the length of your back and maps the key pressure points, enabling all users to dial in their own customized massage.
The app will remember your massage preferences and will tailor massage routines based on the time of day. This chair will massage $5,999 out of your wallet at Acutouch.com. 22 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
Holiday Gift Guide | S P E C I A L F E A T U R E Packed with seven MA Deuce 50-caliber machine guns with tripods, two 30 caliber M1919 machine guns, ten mini-guns with rotating action, and four RPG (Rocket Propelled Grenade) launchers. Also, last but not least, two Final Fantasy Swords, 56-inches long,
Celestron CGE Pro HD 14” Telescope If you’re into star gazing, then the heavens will never look better than through this 14” telescope from Celestron. It’s outfitted with a computerized database of over 40,000 celestial objects that it will automatically find once it has calculated your latitude and longitude. The tripod is also motorized to track whatever you’re looking at as it crosses the sky. It comes with a ring to mount your camera on so you can snap pictures of the incoming asteroid you spot hurdling towards earth. Spot it on hayneedle.com for a galactic price of $9,999.00.
mounted on the roof rack. Custom scissor doors let you slide into the driver’s seat of your dream vehicle. For a mere $55,000 you can finally be the king of the road.
Horological Machine No.2 Watch
Triumph Bonneville T100 Black Motorcycle Feeling a little rebellious? Let this cool little Triumph bike release your inner James Dean. The slick and classic design has a retro feel, to keep you from looking like a Sons of Anarchy wannabe. From its custom shop-style, black-rimmed spoke wheels, to its black-cased engine, this is a bike that makes a statement without really trying. The five-speed 865 cc engine delivers 68pd at 7500 rpm. It also features a large
Instead of putting the new Apple watch on your holiday list, request this artwork by master watchmaker Jena-Marc Wiederrecht. His patented “asymmetrical-tooth gear wheels ensure high precision and play-free functionality.” Whatever that means, it will look really cool on your wrist. The sapphire case is fitted with black dials mounted on a regal red gold base plate. Turning the watch over shows the inner workings, with the 25K gold battle-axe rotor. Limited to only 18 watches, so the price is a steel at only $59k. That’s like parking a BMW on your wrist.
Golfstream G650 Private Jet Have patience if you add this to your list. Order it now and you’ll get yours some time in 2017. But when you do, oh the fun you’ll have. You can fly higher and faster than any commercial jet, rocketing to anywhere you want to go in an 8,000 mile range. So you can hit Bejing or London from New York without a stop. The Rolls Royce engines will hit just under the speed of sound: Mach .925. So load up eight of your favorite people and your crew of four and fly away. A cool $65 million will get you off commercial airlines forever.
16-liter fuel tank that ensures long rides through winding country roads or midnight rides through the city. Available for around $10k at your local Triumph dealer.
Customized Hummer H2 Can a car make you more manly? This one can. This custom H2 comes armed to the gills for when road rage gets the best of you.
If you don’t get the items you put on your list, make sure your loved ones know how disappointed you are in them. Remember, there’s no “U” in holiday, only an “I” right in the middle. Happy Holidays! www.ahametals.com American Hard Assets | 23
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American Hard Assets 2015 Gold & Silver Outlook By John W. Garibald
A tumultuous time in the markets could prove a turning point in the gold and silver price. The core fundamentals are notoriously difficult to pin down in investment-oriented commodities, with gold and silver at the forefront, but that does not mean it isn’t a worthy objective. With that said, these assumptions are based on an ‘All else being equal’ environment and in many ways, supply and demand projections are often subject to the broader environment for the net factors. We liken this to a ‘tail wagging the dog’ scenario. If you get too focused on the physical flows, it can seem that they drive economic factors, not the other way around. The ‘dog’ in this case would include economic factors, geopolitics and real global interest rates 24 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
(especially short rates). The ‘tail’ then is investment related supply and demand, jewelry demand and central bank purchases, for example. Mining supply and jewelry/industrial, fortunately, tend to grow at a similar pace, correlating with broad economic growth. An uptick in economic growth will likely make our task significantly easier and then we can focus on the more volatile sources: ETFs, Coin & Bar, Central Banks and Futures Exchanges. Economic growth and her kissing cousin, real interest rates, have drastic effects on the demand for all commodities, but the effects are amplified in those normally considered for the investment space
2015 Gold Forecast | S P E C I A L F E A T U R E
“Short term real interest rates below 2% = gold rallies. If real short rates rise above 2%, then gold sells off.” (i.e. metals, and to some extents, energy). Higher rates mean a higher opportunity cost in investing in a non-yielding asset for cash investors. To oversimplify, gold does poorly when interest rates are above the prevailing inflation rates for pretty much this reason. For leveraged investors, the cost to carry a trade is now higher, so they will look for positive carry trades (again, yielding assets) or more volatile assets.
From a broad economic standpoint, we see the world’s major economies going through distinctly different stages of the growth cycle as we continue to emerge from the Global Credit Crisis (GCC). We refer to these phases as Sitting, Standing and Bending. To further the analogy, please bear in mind that none of these economies are considered Running; they all have their inherent flaws right no .
Lower rates, however, tend to imply lower economic growth expectations (long term interest rates) and higher uncertainty (shorter interest rates).
Sitting – No growth and/or major structural issues •
Europe is feeling ill with non-existent growth and demographics that are beginning to read like a Greek
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S P E C I A L F E A T U R E | 2015 Gold Forecast
tragedy. Youth unemployment is the norm and the active workforce (relative term), is growing old and is looking to retire almost immediately. To combat this, the discordant European Central Bank has initiated a mild form of the Quantitative Easing that took the US markets by storm, but we are yet to see its effectiveness. •
Japan is similar to Europe, only 15 years ahead of them. Shinzo Abe’s “Three Arrows” of reforms seem to be taking shape, primarily to weaken the Yen and boost the economy. They were wildly popular at first, but markets seem to be running out of patience with the sick man of Asia.
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•
Russia seems determined to assert itself politically and hamstring itself economically.
Standing – Improving growth, but not without their share of aches and pains •
The United States are experiencing improving growth in fits in spurts, but the imminent end of QE and the likely increase in interest rates through 2015 pose a lot of questions as to whether the economy has strong enough legs on its own without the crutch of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP). The timing and pace of interest rate raises will likely be THE determining factor of metals trajectories in 2015.
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S P E C I A L F E A T U R E | 2015 Gold Forecast
•
•
Southeast Asia (ex-China and Japan) have high growth rates, low unemployment and growing middle class but growing political instability in the region poses a threat to asset prices.
Bending •
Britain has strong growth (3.5% or higher) but Scotland’s secession vote has cast political doubts to the stability of the United Kingdom and its membership in the European Union. The United Kingdom may no longer be so united.
•
China’s growth is tailing off and quickly. Estimates are around 7% growth, which is the lowest since 1990.
Australia still stands strong as a commodity based economy but is highly levered to Chinese demand
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Could be even lower for 2015 and Xi Jinping is doing some major house cleaning within the Communist Party of China. It’s a long term benefit to the count y’s growth, but could be a stumbling block for the new President. •
Middle East has growing instability and decreasing oil prices could weaken the political installation.
At the end of the day it’s about global rates and most of that is driven by the US Federal Reserve. Rising Rates sink Gold Ships.
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There are some amazingly complex models out there for long term gold prices, but we believe in simplicity as a proxy for elegance here, so the rule of thumb: short term real interest rates below 2% = gold rallies. If real short rates rise above 2%, then gold sells off. Markets are forward pricing mechanisms, so a belief that we are heading in one direction or another will tend to push prices ahead of the event. All the discussion is great for background, but what does this mean for forecasts.
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Here are our predictions: • • • • •
Gold volatility likely to increase as the end of QE approaches Broad long term forecast is for a decline towards $1000, but not in a smooth line and commodity markets commonly overcorrect Our forecasts are highly dependent on timing and verbiage of FOMC Subject to many more short term swings and basic supplydemand pressures There are hundreds of other contributing factors that merit discussion, but we omitted all but the most critical for brevity.
2015
XAU
XAG
XAU/XAG
January
$ 1,180.00
$ 18.70
63.1
June
$ 1,150.00
$ 19.00
60.5
December
$ 1,050.00
$ 17.50
60.0
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N U M I S M A T I C S | American Silver
Five-Ounce Silver America the Beautiful Coins Low-Mintage Collectible Bullion By Louis Golino
F
or years various world mints have issued large-format silver coins aimed at bullion investors such as the Perth Mint’s five and ten-ounce and kilo silver coins, or Mexico’s five-ounce and kilo silver Libertads. And premium-priced five ounce silver coins aimed at collectors with proof finishes and often gilding or the addition of color have been issued with increasing frequency by many world mints. But until recently the U.S. Mint was not even competing in this segment of the bullion and numismatic market and had not issued any silver coin that weighed more than one troy ounce. In 2010 all that changed when the Mint introduced five-ounce silver versions of its current quarter program, the America the Beautiful series that honors national parks and monuments, which
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is the successor to the popular state quarter program. Since 2010 five new coins have been issued each year, and the series will continue for eleven years. In September the 24th coin was released, which honors the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve in Colorado. In addition, two versions of each coin are being produced. There is a bullion coin which receives no special handling when produced, but which collectors soon discovered comes with brilliant finishes that are sometimes so reflective they are considered proof-like and even deep mirror proof-like, which are familiar to collectors of Morgan silver dollars. And a special vapor-blasted numismatic coin with a “P” mintmark for Philadelphia and a matte finish that is handled carefully when
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hunks of silver. They were derided as hockey pucks that real coin collectors would not be interested in. Second, when the Mint began accepting orders for the first year’s five new coins from its network of authorized purchasers, pre-order prices spiked far above the melt value of the coins. That led to such outcry from buyers that the Mint did something it has never done before, which is stipulate that sellers could only charge a small premium over melt, and it allowed individual buyers to order directly from its distributors, who would normally have to purchase from the coins from dealers further down the supply chain. But even those steps failed to prevent huge mark-ups from developing temporarily for the 2010 issues, which the Mint did not actually release until early 2011. Speculators drove prices up to several thousands of dollars per set, but by the time the coins were actually in the hand of buyers, prices had receded to much-lower levels. Apart from graded examples in the highest grade, prices for the 2010 bullion coins have remain close to their melt value for most of the past three years, or only a fraction of what some buyers paid in 2011. That episode continues to be a drag on this series, as a lot of people got caught up in the frenzy and overpaid. Many at least temporarily lost interest in the coins. Recently prices have begun to firm for the 2010 bullion versions, while prices for the 2010 collector versions have generally stayed above issue price except during periods when lower spot prices pushed the price of the
being sold. The bullion coins are sold by the Mint’s network of distributors, while the Mint sells the numismatic coins directly to collectors. While the two versions are in theory aimed at different market segments --- bullion investors and numismatic collectors, in reality many buyers purchase examples of both types of each issue in the series. In fact, this series is probably the best example of U.S. Mint-produced collectible bullion. The ATB five-ounce silver series has seen several starts and fits, and has not fully caught on with either bullion investors or numismatic collectors. But as it nears the end of its fifth year, it is on the way to achieving what modern coin expert Eric Jordan calls series maturity among collectors. What it continues to lack more than anything is major interest from silver investors, who would do well to consider these coins, which are eligible for inclusion in precious metals IRA’s (but consult your accountant for all the details). In a recent interview in Numismatic News modern coin expert and dealer John Maben noted that “Pure bullion investors who are adding precious metals to their portfolios don’t buy the ATB 5-ounce coins.” The series got off to a rocky start in 2010 for two reasons. First, many people saw the new silver coins as little more than heavy 34 | American Hard Assets www.ahametals.com
American Silver | N U M I S M A T I C S
Hawaii Volcanoes and Denali coins that have mintages of only 20,000 coins. Both command very strong premiums today, especially the Volcanoes, which had the added benefit of sporting a design most collectors find very appealing. The low mintages of many bullion coins in this series (except the 2011 issues) provide a useful hedge against fluctuating silver prices. Premiums have emerged for many bullion issues that outweigh declines in silver values over the last three years. Moreover, with silver prices below $20 today compared to $40 when the series began in 2010, these coins are much more affordable now and buying them at these levels is a lot less risky than doing so when silver prices were higher. The bullion coins to this day are not well known among silver investors despite their low premiums, low mintages, and 99.9% pure silver content, the world standard for bullion investors. In addition, the coins have a diameter of three inches, which is larger than comparable five-ounce bullion coins from other world mints. That large canvas gives them a striking appearance and allows the details of the park or monument depicted to really come to life.
collector coins down. Even though the collector versions have numismatic premium attached to them and are usually lower in mintage, silver spot prices still shape their issue price from the Mint. As the series continued over time, shrewd buyers discovered that this is an intriguing set of coins with strong long-term potential, especially if silver prices rise and mintages remain low. Prices for the bullion versions are usually around 20% over melt value depending on where purchased, which is only a little more than silver bars cost. Prices for the numismatic versions have varied considerably since 2010, but as of this writing they are $155. In 2014 the Mint began offering a subscription program for these coins that gave buyers a 10% discount, which brought the cost down to $140 per coin when silver was in the $20 per ounce range. However, as of October 1 the Mint ended the discount, though there will be new discounts in the future as part of the Mint’s new retail web site (www.usmint. gov). Mintages are one of the most interesting aspects of this series. In theory they are supposed to be lower for the numismatic versions, but collectors tend to prefer the higher-quality collector coins sold by the Mint to consumers, which is some cases has pushed their sales levels higher than those of the bullion coins. And in some cases the bullion examples have had lagging sales, which has translated into very low final mintages with the lowest so far being the 2012
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