Airline Profits - Volume I – Issue 5 – October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

A Magazine for Aviation Leaders & Influencers

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FEATURED

When and Where Will the First Airline Profits Summit & Awards Take Place?

More articles inside...

Ryanair: What Did the Airline African Open Skies: Why Is United Airlines: Has Oscar Munoz Profits Sustainability Index Reveal? It So Slow to Implement? Sowed Seeds of Transformation?

Release date: October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

October 2015

Airline Profits

Contents 6

Editorial: W hen a n d W her e W i ll the Fir s t Airline Profits Summit & Awards Ta ke Pla ce?

10

Profile: Rya n a ir : W ha t Did the Air lin e Pr ofits Sustainability Index Reveal?

16

Perspective: Un ited Air lin es : Ha s Osca r M un oz

Sowed Genuine Seeds of Transformation?

22

Performance: Ar e Air lin es Foc usin g Too M uch on A Single Component of the Airline Profit Equation?

28

Platform: Afr ica n Open Sk ies: W hen W ill the

Yamoussoukro Declaration Be Implemented?

34

Paradigm: Ha ve A ll Air lin es Set Pr o fits As A Yearly Destination?

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3

HEAD OF PROGRAMS:

Kofi Sonokpon

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, duplicated, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means without prior written permission of the Publishers.

kofi.sonokpon@airlineprofits.com

Airline Profits is r elea sed bi-monthly in February, April, June, October, October and December.

PUBLISHED BY: Airline Profits Publications

CP 53506 CSP Norgate Saint-Laurent, QC, Canada

H4L 5J9 magazine@airlineprofits.com

Airline Profits is a v a ila ble in m u ltip le fo r m a ts: o nline, m o bile, digital and print. The online and mobile versions are free to all aviation and non-aviation subscribers.

Digital and print formats are chargeable based on an annual subscription.

For more information about the various subscription packages offered, visit www.airlineprofits.com Airline Profits is a tr a d em a r k of M a ck so n Av ia tio n.

Š2015 Airline Profits ISSN 2368-7800 (Print) ISSN 2368-7819 (Online)

www.airlineprofits.com SPECIAL CREDITS:

Airline Profits

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

Editorial When and Where Will the First Airline Profits Summit & Awards Take Place?

Kofi Sonokpon editor@airlineprofits.com

Welcome to the fifth edition. It has been almost a year since we launched Airline Profits magazine, which we hope will gradually become your favorite publication as far as airline profitability is concerned. And as we strive to improve on the content and delivery of each new edition, our main desire is to engage aviation leaders and influencers in order to make the airline industry as profitable as it can possibly be.

Now, just imagine how greater the impact would be on a global scale when the vast majority of airlines could post profits every single year, not just a few exceptions here and there. There is no doubt that the currently estimated contribution of airlines to the global economy, approximately 10 trillion dollars, could grow significantly, more rewarding and stable jobs could be created and above all, more lasting friendships among people and nations could be established. We are convinced that these tangible results cannot be achieved singlehandedly nor in a vacuum. That is why we intend to encourage key aviation stakeholders to

6

It will be a place to share ideas, learn from one another and bond, a place where specific and objective airline achievements are recognized, while people and exemplary performance are celebrated. come together and hold a summit

industry more profitable and sus-

specifically devoted to airline

tainable.

profitability.

It will be a place for key decisionmakers, leaders and influencers to share ideas, learn from one another and bond, with the ultimate goal of making the airline

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It will also be a place where specific and objective airline achievements are recognized, while people and exemplary performance are celebrated.

Architecture in Old Montreal. Photo Credit: Envato Photodune

Timeframe and Location As you very well know, talk and good intentions are cheap, so we

are planning to initiate and hold

Profits Summit & Awards will be

get on our priority notification

Downtown Montreal, just a few

list so we can send you more

blocks away from IATA, ICAO

details about the summit, the

and ACI headquarters.

awards, the exhibition and the overall agenda as they become

the very first edition of Airline Profits Summit & Awards in the

available.

Access to More Information

fall of 2016, ideally during the month of October.

The first edition of Airline Profits Summit & Awards is more or less

Unless an organization offers to sponsor and host this unique event elsewhere, the ideal location for the first edition of Airline

Airline Profits

twelve months away. However, if you would like to receive pertinent updates as the plans are be-

Moreover, if you are interested in supporting the first edition of Airline Profits Summit & Awards as an exhibitor, a panelist, a presenter or a sponsor, please sign up for more information at: www.airlineprofits.com/summit .

ing firmed up, we invite you to

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

“ Doing what you love is the cornerstone of having abundance in your life.

―Wayne Dyer

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October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

Profile Ryanair: What Did the Airline Profits Sustainability Index Reveal?

In the August edition of Airline Profits, we presented our first review of Air Canada based the Airline Profits Sustainability Index (APSI). This is an integrated metric, which takes into account three dimensions: People, Performance and Agility.

In this edition, we are presenting our second airline review on the basis of the APSI: that of Ryanair.

Our analysis covered a period of 10 years, starting 2005 through 2014. We have also considered

pieces of information available on Ryanair’s website and other reputable

sources

such

as

Flightglobal at the time our review was conducted.

Based on the data available as of September 2015, our analysis revealed that on a scale of 1 to 10, Ryanair has an Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.6.

Based on the data available as of September 2015, our analysis revealed that on a scale of 1 to 10, Ryanair has an Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.6.

In the next few lines, we are go-

ing to offer a breakdown of this rating. However, let’s begin with a brief overview of the company

by highlighting some key facts.

10

Creation and History Celebrating its 30th anniversary this year, Ryanair was founded in 1985 by Irish businessman Tony Ryan (founder of Guinness Peat Aviation), after whom the carrier is named, and two other business associates:

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Christopher Ryan and Liam Lo-

nergan. The airline started operations in the month of July 1985.

In 2013, Ryanair became both the largest airline in Europe and the busiest international airline, in terms of passengers flown.

Ryanair’s cabin crew walking away from Boeing 737. Photo Credit: Ryanair

Business Model, Network and

The current in-service fleet has an

In July 2015, Ryanair accepted to

Fleet

average age of 6.7 years. The air-

sell its 29.8 percent stake in Aer

line also has 260 aircraft on order.

Lingus to International Airlines

A low-cost carrier, Ryanair cur-

Group (IAG).

rently serves 184 destinations across 30 countries, in Europe,

Ownership and Subsidiaries

which accounts for 96 percent of

its network and Morocco in Africa.

The fleet of Ryanair is composed mainly of 316 in-service Boeing 737-800. They also have one Boeing 737-700 and two Bombardier Learjet 45 airplanes.

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Ryanair currently has a hybrid ownership structure: about 25 percent of the equity stake is shared between three private interests, while the remaining 75 percent is owned by other investors.

October 2015

Leadership, People and Opera-

tions Ryanair is currently headed by Michael O’Leary, in the role of Chief Executive Officer. And as of 2014, the airline employed over nine thousand people.

Volume I—Issue 5

Airline Profits

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

Profile Headquartered in Dublin, Ire-

Five factors were considered in

With relatively high People and

land,

our calculation.

Performance indices, our primary

Ryanair

uses

London

Stansted Airport as its main operational base. They also operate at

The Performance Index has a 40% weight in the overall APSI.

Dublin and 70 additional bases

recommendation is that Ryanair would do well to focus on im-

proving their Agility index.

across Europe and Africa.

Agility Index Airline

Profits

Sustainability

Profile

The Airline Profits Agility Index is based on a scale of 1 to 10. Ryanair has a relatively high Agility

As mentioned at the beginning of this review, our analysis covered a 10-year period ranging from

Index of 7.6. Seventeen factors were considered in our calculation.

2005 to 2014.

If you like this article and are curious in finding out more, we invite you to stay tuned as we share more airline profiles and ultimately the 2015 Airline Profits ranking based on the APSI in a future edition of Airline Profits.

The Agility Index has a 15% weight in the overall APSI.

People Index The Airline Profits People Index

Summary

is based on a scale of 1 to 10. Ryanair has a relatively high People Index of 8.6. Five factors were considered in our calculation.

Ryanair’s Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.6 is essentially driven by the Performance Index,

which in this case happens to be The People Index has a 45% weight in the overall APSI.

very high. This is mainly due to the fact that over the past decade

(2005-2014), Ryanair was profitaPerformance Index

The Airline Profits Performance Index is based on a scale of 1 to 10. Ryanair has a very high Per-

ble nine years out of ten. In addition to that, the airline has posted

high operating and net profit margins.

formance Index of 9.0.

12

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Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair Photo Credit: Ryanair

Abundance

“The key to abundance is meeting limited circumstances with

unlimited thoughts. ” — Marianne Williamson

Airline Profits

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

“ When I think about creating abundance, it's not about creating a

life of luxury for everybody on this planet; it's about creating a life of possibility. It is about taking that

which was scarce and making it abundant.

― Peter Diamandis

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October 2015

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Perspective United Airlines: Has Oscar Munoz Sowed Genuine Seeds of Transformation?

At the time this edition of Airline Profits was being finalized, United Airlines announced the appointment of Brett J. Hart as Acting CEO, while Oscar Munoz was reported to be on a medical leave. Indeed, just a month after taking office as the new CEO, United issued a short news release on October 16, reporting that Mr. Munoz had suffered a heart attack and was hospitalized.

This is the opportunity to wish him well. We hope that he will recover quickly and return at the

helm of United, in order to pursue the transformational work that he has initiated.

We also hope that the airline will continue in the same direction Oscar Munoz has so vividly pointed the organization, in such a short period of time. In that regards, on one hand, Henry L. Meyer III, non-Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors of United Airlines expressed his confidence in Mr. Hart’s abilities to carry on the mission and strategy Mr. Munoz has initiated. On the other hand, Mr. Meyer also

16

By giving the opportunity to employees and customers to share their ideas and inviting them to also submit their "tough" questions, Oscar Munoz, the new CEO of United Airlines has undoubtedly set the company on a path to a successful transformation. highlighted the commitment of

Munoz’s agenda.

a website where employees and customers alike could share their opinion and engage with him directly with their questions.

Only three weeks after his appointment, Oscar Munoz launched UnitedAirtime.com,

He also committed to using the same medium to address their questions.

the executive team to move quickly in implementing Oscar

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United Club counter. Photo Credit: United Airlines

It may be too early to predict what the outcome of the initiative that led to the UnitedAirtime.com will be. However, by giving the opportunity to employees and customers to share their ideas and inviting them to also submit their "tough" questions, Oscar Munoz, the new CEO of United Airlines has undoubtedly set the company on a path to a successful transformation.

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Appointed in early September 2015 as President and CEO of the second largest airlines in the world, Mr. Munoz wasted no time for formalities. He embarked immediately on a tour to meet United’s employees and customers. By so doing, he received their feedback on the state of the airline and their perspective about its future.

With UnitedAirtime.com, Oscar Munoz seemed to have walked the talk, by putting into action some of the points he briefly out-

October 2015

outlined upon his appointment: “It is truly a privilege to serve as United’s CEO. United has an incredible opportunity for improving an experience that is essential to the vitality of global business and to the personal lives of millions of people, for innovation, and for earnings growth. In my years serving on the board, I have been impressed by the dedication and skill of my new coworkers. Together, we will make United the topperforming airline.”

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October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

Perspective In the quest of making United Airlines “the best airline for customers and employees”, the United’s executive team has one major challenge to overcome.

Namely, that of making United Airlines a truly united and seamless organization.

This implies that the difficulties arising from the merger with Continental Airlines are effectively ironed out.

It also means that the People, the Processes and Systems are fully integrated to the point where United’s employees and customers perceive practically a single entity.

How long will that take? No one really knows. However, one thing is certain: Oscar Munoz seemed well prepared and determined to get the job done.

And that was a good starting point. That also sent a strong and positive message to United’s employees and customers, who welcomed it.

18

Oscar Munoz, President & CEO of United Airlines Photo Credit: United Airlines

As far as Airline Profits are concerned, it appears that United Airlines are well on their way to meet the pre-requisite to compete effectively in the global marketplace in an open-sky environment.

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Therefore, they would do well to divert their attention from their Gulf competitors and rather focus their energy on effectively meeting their renewed commitment to employees, customers and shareholders.

Genius

“What is called genius is the abundance of life and health. ”

— Henry David Thoreau

Airline Profits

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

“ The older generation had greater respect for land than science. But

we live in an age when science, more than soil, has become the provider of growth and abundance. Living

just on the land creates loneliness in an age of globality.

― Shimon Peres

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Performance Are Airlines Focusing Too Much on a Single Component of the Airline Profit Equation?

If you are a regular reader of Airline Profits magazine, you will probably see a connection between this article and the one entitled: Airline Profits Outlook – Is the Airline Community Looking at the Right Profitability Drivers, which appeared in the first edition in February 2015.

By all accounts, airline profits are on the rise. Some airlines, especially US carriers started report-

ing record third quarter results.

At the time of this writing, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines

and United Airlines have all reported

record

third

quarter

profits in excess of US$ 1 billion

each.

Apart from relatively high load factors and increasing ancillary revenues, which some of them charge, the main reason behind this surge in profits is considered to be lower fuel costs.

And given the fact that fuel rep-

resents about 30 percent of an

22

By all accounts, airline profits are on the rise. American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines have reported record third quarter profits in excess of US$ 1 billion each. airline’s direct operating costs

very important to have control

(DOC), any substantial reduction

over both the Revenue and the

in fuel costs is likely to affect an

Cost components in order to in-

airline’s bottom line in a positive

crease profits substantially.

way. Now, considering the basic profitability equation: Revenue – Costs = Profit, it is

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As such, there are five essential scenarios to consider.

A Boeing 787-800 with American Airlines Livery. Photo Credit: American Airlines

The first scenario is about maintaining revenues constant, while significantly reducing costs. This assumes that revenues are already high enough and that there is enough room to bring costs down.

The second scenario is about increasing revenues significantly, while holding costs at a constant level. This assumes that there is enough room to up revenues and that costs are already at a mini-

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mal level.

The third scenario is about increasing revenues while reducing

costs. This assumes that there is enough room to play on both revenues and costs in opposite

directions.

The fourth scenario is about seeing both revenues and costs go up, while maintaining a higher margin between them. This assumes that there is enough room to substantially increase revenues

October 2015

and simultaneously holding the related costs to a minimum.

The fifth scenario is about seeing both revenues and costs to go down, while maintaining a higher margin between them. This assumes that revenues are still much higher than the break-even point and that costs are being squeezed to a reasonable level.

As the general reactions have proven, following the publication of countless headlines about cheaper oil and subsequent lower

Volume I—Issue 5

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October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

Performance

fares, which passengers should expect, scenarios one and five are more or less the reality for airlines. Even though scenario three would or should be a better option for airlines in the long run to ensure sustained profitability, popular belief on one hand that airfares are too high and on the other hand, price wars that airlines inflict on themselves simply make that option a rather remote eventuality. So the question is: can airlines really control fuel costs? While some would point to fuel hedging as an effective 24

The current strong airline profitability could very well turn into huge losses, should oil prices skyrocket again in the future. strategy to do so, the billion dollars that some airlines have recently lost due to fuel hedging, seem to suggest the contrary. As a result, the current strong airline profitability could very well turn into huge losses, should oil prices skyrocket again in the future. Hence the question: are airlines focusing too much on a single component of the airline profit equation? www.airlineprofits.com

Talent

“Talent is always conscious of its own abundance,

and does not object to sharing. ” — Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Airline Profits

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

“ What we need to do is really improve energy efficiency standards, develop in full scale renewable and alternative energy and use the one resource we have in abundance, our creativity. ―Lois Capps

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October 2015

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Platform African Open Skies: When Will the Yamoussoukro Declaration Be Implemented?

AFRAA’S 47th Annual General Assembly in Brazzaville, Congo On November 8-10, 2015, the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), currently led by Secretary General, Dr. Elijah Chingosho, will be holding their 47 th Annual General Assembly. Hosted by Equatorial Congo Airlines (ECAir) who’s CEO, Mrs. Fatima Beyina-Moussa is the current President of AFRAA, the meeting will take place in Brazzaville, Congo.

The chosen theme for this year’s gathering is “Open skies: Growth through competition and collabo-

ration”.

With the official launch of Congo Airways in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), on October 9, 2015, the African continent now has some 46 mainline carriers, most of which are stateowned or national airlines with some government equity participation.

Over the last decade, apart from Ethiopian Airlines that consistently posted profits, the vast majority of airlines in Africa were not profitable.

The record of leading African airlines is sound proof of that statement. jority of airlines in Africa were

not profitable. The record of leading African airlines such as

Lack of Profitability and Some

Egyptair, Kenya Airways, Royal

Underlining Causes

Air Maroc and South African

Over the last decade, apart from Ethiopian Airlines that consistently posted profits, the vast ma-

28

Airways, just to name a few is sound proof of that statement.

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As a matter of fact, based on the revised airline profits outlook that IATA released in June, although other world regions are posting stronger financial results in 2015, African carriers will barely be breaking even. African airlines will be posting meager

A Boeing jetliner with ECair livery on approach over Brazzaville, Congo. Photo Credit: Equatorial Congo Airlines (ECair)

net profits around US $100 mil-

adequate infrastructures and air-

of African States to do what it

lion with an average profit mar-

craft

of

takes to offer African airlines a

gin of 1.2%, whereas single air-

qualified aviation personnel, and

more adequate framework, in

lines in other parts of the world

restricted access to larger origin-

which they can perform better

are posting billion-dollar profits

destination (OD) markets in oth-

and be able to compete effective-

in a single quarter.

er African countries.

ly with foreign carriers.

The lack of profitability seen across the continent is driven by many factors, namely: relatively low passenger load factors, high airport and air navigation charges, as well as high tariffs, taxes and fuel costs, the lack of

The question is: can African air-

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equipment,

shortage

lines perform better? They sure can, the potential is there and it

The Yamoussoukro Declaration and Some Key Milestones

is huge!

The main thing that is lacking is a stronger commitment on the part

October 2015

When it comes to open skies in Africa, everyone tends to refer to the Yamoussoukro Declaration, a

Volume I—Issue 5

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October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

Platform policy adopted by African Heads

Status of Implementation 27

individual State and the African

of State in the framework of the

Years Later

continent as a whole.

Today, October 2015, it has been

However, in practice, what some

twenty-seven (27) years since the

observers refer to as “national

Yamoussoukro Declaration was

pride� is too strong to overcome,

This declaration was later sup-

adopted and offered some hope

in order to materialize what eve-

plemented with the Yamous-

to African carriers and most im-

rybody has acknowledged to be

soukro Decision adopted by Af-

portantly air travellers. However,

the right thing to do.

rican Ministers in charge of Civil

the reality is that the implemen-

Aviation as of November 14,

tation of the said policy on the

1999. This decision was intended

liberalization of air transport in

to ensure the effective and gradu-

Africa is far from being easy.

al implementation of the declara-

In fact, considering comments by

tion adopted eleven years earlier.

various stakeholders, it seems as

The signers of this document rec-

if very little or no real progress

ognized the existence of road-

has been made in the execution

blocks to an effective implemen-

phase of the initiative. Therefore,

tation of the African open skies

intra-connectivity within Africa

policy and that very little pro-

is still as difficult and sometimes

gress had been made since 1988.

more expensive than interconti-

African Union (AU) in Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast on October 7, 1988.

nental travel as it was before the Yamoussoukro Declaration.

In July 2000, the Heads of State approved the decision, this time in Lome, Togo. The said decision was supposed to be in force since August 12, 2000 after a transitory period of two years. Then some seven years later, the African Union apparently mandated the African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC) to implement the Yamoussoukro Decision in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in May 2007.

30

In theory, the African Heads of State and Government, who signed the declaration, fully understood commercial aviation to be a powerful leverage for international cooperation and economic growth. And they also recognized the importance of air transport liberalization and the related economic benefits to each

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In our opinion, the so-called national pride, which somehow causes almost every African State to want to own and protect their airline against other African countries and their carriers is in reality not pride in the true sense of the term. A true meaning of pride is: an honest appreciation of that which is good.

Summary One will have to come up with a more accurate term to qualify what is preventing African States to do the right thing in support of their own economic growth. As the clock is ticking, and more and more foreign investors and tourists are considering Africa as the next big land of opportunity, we hope that it would not take yet another thirty (30) years for African States to finally and fully implement their Yamoussoukro Declaration.

Expectation

“Expect your every need to be met.

Expect the answer to every problem, expect abundance on every level. ” — Eileen Caddy

Airline Profits

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

“ We are buried beneath the weight of information, which is being confused with knowledge; quantity is being confused with abundance and wealth with happiness. ― Tom Waits

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Airline Profits

October 2015

Volume I—Issue 5

Paradigm Have All Airlines Set Profits As a Yearly Destination?

Have all airlines set profits as a yearly destination? That’s right! This is not a typo. As airlines are generally perceived as connecting people from a specific origin (Point A) to a specific destination (Point B), the question is worth considering. This article refers back to a brief comment we received at the start of Airline Profits magazine in early 2015. The statement was more an expression of curiosity: “Airline profitability? You can hardly find an airline that is profitable over three years in succession.”

The viewpoint, which more or less reflects the general state of the airline industry, was shared

by a seasoned aviation manager, who obviously knew what he was talking about.

The very fact that, he purposefully omitted Southwest Airlines or WestJet, was undoubtedly because

these

two

consistently

profitable airlines are viewed more as exceptions and not the rule, when it comes to airline profitability.

Indeed, as we all know Southwest Airlines have been profitable for 42 consecutive years.

Besides, over the last decade,

34

The fact that some airlines have turned in profits over several consecutive years, is certainly not due to chance. It is in fact the result of a deliberate choice on their part to be profitable year in and year out.

WestJet and Ethiopian Airlines

have posted profits every single year. So, what sets these airlines apart from the rest of the airline

industry? One might ask.

This is where the work of researchers Jim Collins and Morten T. Hansen offer a very interesting

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point. In their bestselling book Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos, and Luck – Why Some Thrive Despite Them All, they revealed that one of the specific goals that Southwest Airlines have set was to turn in profits every single year. And while their study did

Airport Terminal. Photo Credit: Envato Photodune

not include any other airlines

Given the fact that airline profita-

not due to chance. It is in fact the

apart from Pacific Southwest Air-

bility is assumed to be very cycli-

result of a deliberate choice on

lines (PSA), we can assume that

cal, an interesting question one

their part to be profitable year in

WestJet and Ethiopian Airlines

may ask at this point is as fol-

and year out. As the famous

have also adopted the same

lows. Do the other airlines set

hockey player Wayne Gretzky

profitability discipline.

profits as a yearly goal or finan-

was reported to have said: “It is

cial destination for themselves?

provable beyond any doubt that

And if not, why not?

you will miss 100% of all the

Figuratively speaking, these airlines and the like have set a financial destination they would like to reach at the end of every fiscal year.

Airline Profits

In summary, the fact that some airlines like Southwest Airlines, WestJet and Ethiopian Airlines have turned in profits over several consecutive years, is certainly

October 2015

shots you never take.” And how can one reach a destination or achieve a goal that has not been set in the first place?

Volume I—Issue 5

“ The world is full of abundance and opportunity, but far too many people come to the fountain of life with a sieve instead of a tank car... a teaspoon instead of a steam shovel. They expect little and as a result they get little. ― Ben Sweetland

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“ When people are genuinely happy at the successes of others, the pie gets larger.

― Stephen Covey

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Available in Kindle & Paperback on Amazon

“ Life in abundance comes only

through great love. ―Elbert Hubbard

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