Airline profits - Volume II - Issue 7 - February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

A Magazine for Aviation Leaders & Influencers

www.airlineprofits.com

FEATURED

Aeromexico: Is the Successful Turnaround Reaching its Limits?

More articles inside...

Air China: What Did the Airline Profits Sustainability Index Reveal?

Release date: February 2016

Has Delta Inspired a New Airbus A320neo: What If PerforPassenger Dynamics? mance Exceeds Expectations?

Volume II—Issue 7

February 2016

Airline Profits

Contents 6

Editorial: Ha s D e lta Ai r Lin es In spir ed a Ne w Passenger Dynamics

10

Profile: Air Chin a : W ha t Did th e Air lin e Pr ofits Sustainability Index Reveal?

16

Perspective: Does Qa ta r Air w a ys Ha ve a Poin t in

Opposing the Idea of Consolidation of Gulf Carriers?

22

Performance: Aer om e xico: Is the Successful Turnaround Reaching its Limits?

26

Paradigm: K en ya Air w a ys: Cou ld a n Ea r lier

Restructuring Have Prevented the Fiasco?

32

Platform: Air b us A320n eo: W ha t If Pe r for m a n ce Exceeds Expectations Significantly?

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3

HEAD OF PROGRAMS:

Kofi Sonokpon

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, duplicated, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means without prior written permission of the Publishers.

kofi.sonokpon@airlineprofits.com

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Š2015 Airline Profits ISSN 2368-7800 (Print) ISSN 2368-7819 (Online)

www.airlineprofits.com SPECIAL CREDITS:

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Editorial Has Delta Air Lines Inspired a New Passenger Dynamics?

Kofi Sonokpon editor@airlineprofits.com

It was back in 2011 that David Malovani now 57, who has been a business consultant for over 30 years had a shock about what he considered an unfair practice by Delta Air Lines. At the time, Mr. Malovani and his wife wanted to drop one leg of their multi-segment travel itinerary. They were quoted a total change fee of 1600 US dollars for two tickets, which cost them 2600 US dollars about eight months earlier.

They objected to the fees and suggested instead to simply consider other arrangements and

catch

their

return

flight

as

planned. Mr. Malovani was all the more shocked when he was

told that they would incur a noshow fee of 500 US dollars each, otherwise they would not be al-

lowed to board their return flight

David Malovani has incorporated a non-profit organization in the State of Delaware, USA in order to promote straightforward, simpler and more honest ticketing rules, to support passengers in case of legal dispute with airlines and to serve as a watchdog of IATA.

home.

The case was since taken to court and Juge Ruth Levhar Sharon issued a verdict in favor of David Malovani. The court also ordered Delta Air Lines to compensate Mr. Malovani for the prejudice he was caused.

6

David Malovani has since re-

time to read those established

viewed airline ticketing rules is-

guidelines, which air carriers are

sued by the International Air

supposed to follow. Therefore,

Transport

(IATA)

passengers are being taking ad-

and is convinced that airlines are

vantage of. To Mr. Malovani, air-

not playing by the book. In his

lines are literally breaking the

opinion, the vast majority of air-

rules and are simply and easily

line passengers do not take the

getting away with that.

Association

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Delta Air Lines Airbus A321 on Landing. Photo Credit: Delta Air Lines

Fast forward to August 2015, David Malovani has incorporated a non-profit organization in the State of Delaware, USA in order to promote straightforward, simpler and more honest ticketing rules, to support passengers in case of legal dispute with airlines and to serve as a watchdog of IATA.

The

International

Air

Transport Passengers Association (IATPA)

has

since

coalesced

more than 2000 people across 35

Airline Profits

countries.

as a counterbalance to airline lob-

Finally, an IATPA delegation

bying.

recently met with Jean-Louis

Airline Profits interviewed Mr.

Colson, Directorate General for

David Malovani and Ms. Ifat

Mobility

and

Aharoni, respectively Founder

Policy

and Online Marketing Manager

Officer Passenger Rights of the

of the International Air Transport

European Commission in Brus-

Passengers Association (IATPA –

sels, Belgium. Following that

www.iatpa.net) on January 27,

meeting, IATPA will be making

2016.

and

Giancarlo

Transport

Crivellaro,

recommendations to the European Union on how to improve air

ticketing rules and will be acting

February 2016

You can read the full interview on Airline Profits website.

Volume II—Issue 7

“ Gratitude is the healthiest of all human emotions. The more you express gratitude for what you have, the more likely you will have even more to express gratitude for. ―Zig Ziglar

Airline Profits

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Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Profile Air China: What Did the Airline Profits Sustainability Index Reveal?

In the December 2015 edition of Airline Profits, we presented our first review of Emirates Airline based the Airline Profits Sustainability Index (APSI). This is an integrated metric, which takes into account three dimensions: People, Performance and Agility.

In this edition, we are presenting another airline review on the basis of the APSI: that of Air China.

Our analysis covered a period of 10 years, starting 2005 through 2014. We have also considered

pieces of information available on Air China’s website and other reputable

sources

such

as

Flightglobal at the time our review was conducted.

Based on the data available as of February 2016, our analysis revealed that on a scale of 1 to 10, Air China has an Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.2.

Based on the data available as of January 2016, our analysis revealed that on a scale of 1 to 10, Air China has an Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.2.

Creation and History Founded almost 30 years ago in 1988, Air China started opera-

In the next few lines, we are go-

ing to offer a breakdown of this rating. However, let’s begin with a brief overview of the company

tions the same year in July. The airline was born from the split of activities formerly covered by the Civil Aviation Authority of

by highlighting some key facts.

10

www.airlineprofits.com

China (CAAC). As such, the air-

line inherited a part of CAAC fleet of aircraft devoted to intercontinental flights. National flag

carrier of China, Air China is the second largest carrier in the country. As of September 2015,

Maiden flight for Air China’s 50th A330 Photo Credit: Airbus

Air China became the first airline

83 and 9 percent.

to offer a direct flight between

Canada.

Subsidiaries

and

Alliances

Beijing and Montreal, thanks to a codeshare agreement with Air

Ownership,

Air China currently has a hybrid Air China operates a mixed fleet

of 349 aircraft in-service composed of: 135 Boeing 737, 53 Air-

ownership structure: Over 57 percent of the equity is held by the

China

National

Aviation

Business Model, Network and

bus A330, 52 A321, 39 A320 and

Fleet

33 A319. The current in-service

An award-winning mainline car-

fleet has an average age of 6.8

rier, Air China currently serves

years. The airline also has 38 air-

179 destinations across all conti-

craft on order, including Airbus

At the present time, Air China

nents, of which Asia Pacific and

A350 and A320, Boeing 777 and

has a majority stake in several

Europe account respectively for

787 as well as COMAC C919.

local airlines (including Air Chi-

Holding

Company

(CNAHC).

The rest of equity shares belong to other investors.

na Cargo and Shenzhen Airlines)

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Profile and Ameco Beijing, a mainte-

nance provider (MRO), which is a joint-venture with Lufthansa. A member of Star Alliance, Air Chi-

na currently has close to 30 codeshare and commercial agree-

People Index

The Airline Profits People Index

The Agility Index has a 15%

weight in the overall APSI.

is based on a scale of 1 to 10. Air China has a relatively high Peo-

ple Index of 7.9. Five factors were considered in our calculation.

ments.

Summary Air China’s Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.2 is essen-

The People Index has a 45%

tially driven by the Performance

weight in the overall APSI.

Index, which in this case happens to be very high. This is mainly

Leadership, People and Opera-

due to the fact that over the past

tions Performance Index

decade (2005-2014), Air China

Jianjiang, in the role of President.

The Airline Profits Performance

was profitable nine years out of

And as of 2014, the airline em-

Index is based on a scale of 1 to

ten. In addition to that, the airline

ployed over 26,000 people.

10. Air China has a very high

has posted above average operat-

Performance Index of 9.1. Five

ing and net profit margins.

China uses Beijing Capital Inter-

factors were considered in our

With very high Performance and

national Airport as its main oper-

calculation.

relatively high People indices,

ational base. The airline also op-

The Performance Index has a 40%

our primary recommendation is

erates flights from Shanghai Pu-

weight in the overall APSI.

that Air China would do well to

Air China is currently led by Cai

Headquartered in Beijing, Air

dong, its second hub.

focus on improving its Agility index.

Agility Index Airline

Profits

Sustainability

Profile

As mentioned at the beginning of this review, our analysis covered a 10-year period ranging from

2005 to 2014.

If you like this article and are

The Airline Profits Agility Index

curious in finding out more,

is based on a scale of 1 to 10. Air

we invite you to stay tuned as we

China has an above average Agil-

share more airline profiles and

ity Index of 6.4. Seventeen factors

ultimately the first Airline Profits

were considered in our calcula-

ranking based on

tion.

in a future edition of Airline Profits.

12

www.airlineprofits.com

the

APSI

Leadership

“Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other.”

— John F. Kennedy

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

“ In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. ― Eric Hoffer

Airline Profits

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@AirlineProfits

For more information about this program contact us at: www.airlineprofits.com/contact-us

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Perspective Does Qatar Airways Have a Point in Opposing the Idea of Consolidation of Gulf Carriers?

In an article by Reuters about the 2016 Bahrain Airshow, which appeared in the Arabian Business, Akbar Al Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways was reported to have rejected outright the suggestion of a consolidation of airlines in the Gulf region. Referring to the example of airlines in the USA, Mr. Baker stated: "I don't agree with consolidation, always done to extract capacity and jack up prices."

In this edition of Airline Profits,

Speaking of consolidation, there are three fundamental reasons why Gulf carriers many not entertain the idea, namely: ownership, strength of operations and financial performance.

we are reviewing some of the reasons why Gulf carriers may be

reluctant to merge. In speaking of consolidation of Gulf carriers, the assumption is mainly about some

mega airlines formed by Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways. These three airlines

combined currently operate close to 550 airplanes, which are about 6 years old on average. And as of

of

2014,

collectively

(ASK). Speaking of consolidation,

served 367 destinations across all

there are three fundamental rea-

continents and have flown in ex-

sons why Gulf carriers many not

cess of 88 million of passengers,

entertain the idea, namely: own-

400 billion of revenue passenger

ership, strength of operations

kilometers (RPK) and 509 billion

and financial performance.

16

they

have

available

seat

kilometers

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Ownership Emirates, Etihad and Qatar are all three state-owned air carriers.

All these airlines appear to be a powerful instrument for economic growth for their respective States.

Singapore Airshow 2016. Qatar Airways A380 taxiing. Photo Credit: Airbus

As a matter of fact, all three airlines are growing, constantly and quasi

simultaneously

keeping

pace with each other in terms of investments in infrastructure (for

Strength of Operations Although there is at first a com-

monality in their fleet of airplanes to some extent, beyond their

geographical

proximity,

airlines are quasi steadily seeing double digit increase in total revenues every single year, since 2005. The only exception has been 2009, when both Etihad and

instance aircraft acquisition and

Emirates, Etihad and Qatar are

Qatar reported a slight decrease

airport expansion). Furthermore,

increasing traffic and capacity

in revenue compared to the pre-

there seem to be some tactful ri-

year after year, most probably to

vious year. As far as profits are

valry between Emirates Airline,

maintain a certain momentum

concerned, only Emirates Airline

Etihad Airways and Qatar Air-

and not to be left behind.

has consistently posted positive

ways. For instance, to-date it ap-

pears that there are no alliances

Financial Performance

earnings over the last decade.

Profit figures from both Etihad

nor codeshare agreements be-

In terms of finances, apart from

and Qatar over the same period

tween these airlines, each one

the Government being the owner

were not available for detailed

pursuing its own destiny.

and a strong backer, all three

comparison.

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Perspective

Summary Despite the fact that Etihad Air-

ways and Qatar Airways have not achieved the same level of profitability as Emirates Airline,

all three airlines are currently holding a strong position both

Unlike private or publicly-traded

that are deemed unprofitable,

commercial airlines whose pri-

while their private or publicly-

mary focus is to make a profit,

traded counterparts would not.

state-owned

Hence, struggling airlines will

airlines

usually

serve mainly to drive local as

welcome

consolidation

as

a

well as foreign traffic of people

means to attain operational effi-

and goods.

ciency and improve financial performance.

financially.

To the latter, profits are second-

And that is too strong a leverage

ary as long as the State-owners

And that is clearly not the case as

for any of them to want to bar-

can afford to provide the carriers

far as Emirates Airline, Etihad

gain for the sake of entering into

with the necessary financial back-

Airways and Qatar Airways are

a merger, which to the State-

ing when required.

concerned.

operationally

and

owners may appear to be an alienation of their autonomy, inde-

This explains why state-owned airlines will often serve routes

pendence and position of power.

18

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Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

“ Develop an attitude of gratitude, and give thanks for everything that happens to you, knowing that every step forward is a step toward achieving something bigger and better than your current situation. ― Brian Tracy

Airline Profits

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Available in Kindle Book on Amazon

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Performance Aeromexico: Is the Successful Turnaround Reaching its Limits?

In this edition of Airline Profits, we are focusing on Aeromexico, the largest airline in Mexico and a founding member of the airline alliance, SkyTeam. It’s worth highlighting that Andres Conesa, CEO of Grupo Aeromexico was elected Chairman of IATA in June 2015 for a one-year term. Mr. Conesa also served as President of the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA).

As far as profitability is concerned, the past decade has been both a very challenging and re-

warding period for Aeromexico.

A Period of Red Ink After a year of low profitability in 2005, where Aeromexico bare-

After these four consecutive years of losses, which amounted to a total of 0.6 billion US dollars, Aeromexico made a spectacular comeback in 2010 with close to 200 million US dollars in net profits and a 9% margin.

ly broke even with thiny operating and net profit margins, respectively .41 and .32%, the air

A year later, the company was

carrier went through four consec-

able to narrow the gap by more

utive years of losses.

than half to a -7% net profit mar-

Net profits first went down more than 2% in the following year, before reaching an abyssal -16% in 2007.

22

gin. 2009 however saw another

loss with a slightly wider gap compared to the previous year.

For that year, the profit margin

was down to more than -10%.

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The Turnaround After

these

four

consecutive

years of losses, which amounted to a total of 0.6 billion US dollars, Aeromexico made a spectacular comeback in 2010 with close to 200 million US dollars in net pro-

Aeromexico Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Photo Credit: Boeing

profits and a 9% margin.

Since then, Aeromexico has continued to post profits. However,

the profit margins have decreased progressively year after

Aeromexico has maintained the

that although the airline has in-

profit stream in 2015, reporting

creased its total revenues consist-

net profits in excess of 60 million

ently since 2010, despite seasonal

US dollars with a net profit mar-

variations in the cargo sector,

gin slightly above 2.5%.

there seem to be some cost elements that are not yet fully under

year. Firstly, the margin dropped

almost by half below 5% in 2011, then slightly down below 4% the

control.

Summary

following year. The decrease in

Aeromexico has posted profits

profitability continued over the

for fiscal year ending December

following two years to reach

2015 for six consecutive years.

slightly below 2% in 2014.

Nonetheless, one can point out

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Airline Profits

February 2016

Performance

24

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Volume II—Issue 7

Courage

“Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one’s courage. ”

— Anais Nin

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Paradigm Kenya Airways: Could an Earlier Restructuring Have Prevented the Fiasco?

Kenya Airways has been until recently one of the leading airlines in Africa, but also one of the strongest, trusted and respected brands. In terms of financial performance, the airline has posted above industry profit margin for consecutive years. For instance, from 2005 to 2007, the average operating and net profit margins at Kenya Airways were respectively close to 12 and 8%.

Whereas, the airline industry was reporting only 2.7 and 1% operating and net profit margins over

the same period.

Despite, annual variations, both passenger and cargo revenues grew on average about 9% over a period of ten years between 2005

There were at least three distinct occasions over the last decade that Kenya Airways’ gatekeepers seem to have failed to read the red writing on the wall.

and 2014.

The Disastrous Report So then, one might wonder what had happened. What caused the deep loss of nearly 300 million US dollars, which Kenya Airways reported in 2015?

Firstly, losing over 280 million

losses the airline had reported

US dollars is a big deal for any

over the preceding two years.

business concern. Secondly, as reported by local media, that rep-

resented the worst financial performance in Kenyan corporate history. Thirdly, that is more

than double the cumulative

26

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In that case, the real questions that

deserve

Kenya

Airways

stakeholders’ attention should be: How did that happen? Could this situation been anticipated and

Kenya Airways Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Photo Credit: Boeing

possibly avoided? Could a re-

to read the red writing on the

industry profit margins, sudden-

structuring plan have made a

wall. Otherwise, they saw that,

ly posted a deep loss for 2008.

difference at least two years earli-

but for unknown reasons did not

The results that followed over the

er? What mechanisms can be put

acknowledge or take that serious-

next three fiscal years, although

in place so that such a situation

ly as warning signals. First alert

positive, seemed to indicate that

does not repeat itself?

signal: 2008-2009 financial re-

the situation was not back to nor-

sults , second alert signal: 2011-

mal yet. The main reason being

2012 financial results and third

that the margins were much low-

Early Alert Signals

alert signal: 2012-2013 financial

er than usual, which is a good

Beyond the finger pointing exer-

results.

indication of rising costs.

First Alert Signal

Second Alert Signal

three distinct occasions over the

An airline that reported positive

The profit margins for the fiscal

last decade that Kenya Airways’

results for at least three consecu-

year ending in March 2012 sug-

gatekeepers seem to have failed

tive years along with higher than

gested that the situation was

cise, which is often easy to do after the fact, it may be worth noting that there were at least

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Paradigm

actually getting worse again. The

as the first loss posted in 2009

at least two years earlier, maybe

financial performance of the air-

was certainly a more vivid red

the fiasco could have been antici-

line was certainly not under con-

flag that urgent and drastic ac-

pated and avoided.

trol, especially considering that

tions were necessary to prevent a

fact that passenger, cargo and

great disaster ahead.

total revenues all grew significantly compared to the previous year (respectively 14, 22 and

13%). It appeared that some cost elements were out of control.

Third Alert Signal The huge loss reported for 2012,

which was nearly twice as much

28

Summary

With that said, the subsequent two losses appeared to be a logical consequence of the loss of

control over the airline’s financial performance.

For the pride of Africa, it is necessary to restore Kenya Airways

back to sustained profitability.

And that is not just for the sake of Kenya, but even more so for

Had the “national mobilization”

the sake of African aviation as a

and subsequent actions taken in

whole.

2015, in an attempt to turn Kenya Airways around been considered

www.airlineprofits.com

For the pride of Africa, it is necessary to restore Kenya Airways back to sustained profitability. And that is not just for the sake of Kenya, but even more so for the sake of African aviation as a whole.

For that to happen, it is important to consider that plans, and turnaround plans for that matter, are as good as the people who are responsible for imple-

menting them. So a parting question, one that is critical to the future success of Kenya Airways is

as follows. Do the restructuring efforts include identifying key people who are capable of not

only implementing the proposed changes, but also and more importantly capable of perceiving

early signs of threat and act

Airline Profits

accordingly? Failing to do so

cannot solve a problem effective-

might leave the door wide open

ly without first changing the

for other surprises, which may

mindset that caused or favored

not

that in the first place.

necessarily

be

pleasant.

Paraphrasing Albert Einstein, we

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

“ The essence of optimism is that it takes no account of the present, but it is a source of inspiration, of vitality and hope where others have resigned; it enables a man to hold his head high, to claim the future for himself... ― Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Airline Profits

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Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Platform Airbus A320neo: What If Performance Exceeds Expectations Significantly?

If you are a regular reader of Airline Profits, you will recall that we have devoted much space to the Bombardier CSeries last year. In this edition, our focus will shift to the Airbus A320 new engine option, better known as the A320neo. Launched in 2006 as the A320Enchanced (A320E), arguably in response to the introduction of the CSeries by Bombardier, Airbus changed the name to A320neo four year later in 2010.

After a few delays, Airbus delivered

the

first

A320neo

to

Lufthansa on January 20, 2016.

The world renowned German airline became the launch customer after Qatar Airways post-

poned the acceptance of the aircraft to a later date. About two decades ago, no one was expect-

About two decades ago, no one was expecting the already successful A320 aircraft type to be “demoted” to ceo (current engine option) and be replaced by a more fuel-efficient and environmental friendly neo (new engine option).

ing the already successful A320 aircraft type to be “demoted” to ceo (current engine option) and

backyard, Airbus quickly react-

Besides, no one would have bet a

be replaced by a more fuel-

ed and announced a re-engined

dime on the probability of the

efficient

environmental

version of their existing type of

Airbus A320neo entering into

friendly neo (new engine option).

aircraft, using in large part the

service before the CSeries. But, it

However, following the move by

same engine designed by Pratt

actually did.

the Canadian aircraft manufac-

and Whitney, which was meant

Furthermore, Airbus themselves

turer, Bombardier to play in their

to power the Bombardier CSeries.

were not expecting to sell that

32

and

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Lufthansa takes delivery of first Airbus A320neo as launching customer. Robert Leduc, President of Pratt & Whitney, Carsten S pohr, Chairman of the Board and CEO of the Lufthansa Group, Airbus President and CEO Fabrice BrĂŠgier. Photo Credit: Airbus

many A320neo. Yet, they did so

cluding the recently announced

out to exceed expectation in ser-

overwhelmingly and at the ex-

firm order from Air Canada for

vice, one could objectively antici-

pense of its announced rival, the

45 CS300). On the other hand, as

pate that the all-new CSeries

all-new CSeries. Indeed, as of

if to widen the divide, Airbus are

would do better. However, until

January 2016, Airbus have sold

now tooting that the A320neo,

and unless the Canadian rival

3357 A320neo. And that repre-

delivered to Lufthansa less than

enters effectively into service and

sented an impressive

record,

three months ago, was actually

especially that Bombardier in-

which Airbus claimed to be their

performing slightly better than

creases the number of sales sub-

projected 15-year sales figure.

expected, in terms of fuel con-

stantially, the market perception,

On one hand, this is far in excess

sumption. Indeed, the new vari-

whether right or wrong, would

of its immediate rival, the Boeing

ant of the A320 was projected to

be that the Airbus A320neo has

737 MAX with 3072 units sold

burn about 15% less fuel than the

proven to be the best option,

and way ahead of the innovative

legacy aircraft. Now, if the re-

based on sales and actual perfor-

CSeries with only 288 units (in-

engined Airbus A320neo turned

mance.

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

Airline Profits

February 2016

Platform

34

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Volume II—Issue 7

Determination

“Failure will never overtake me if my determination to succeed

is strong enough. ” — Og Mandino

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

“ At times our own light goes out and is rekindled by a spark from another person. Each of us has cause to think with deep gratitude of those who have lighted the flame within us.

― Albert Schweitzer

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“ We learned about gratitude and humility—that so many people had a hand in our success, from teachers who inspired us to the janitors who kept our school clean… and we were taught to value everyone’s contribution and treat everyone with respect.

― Michelle Obama

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Joy

“Joy is the simplest form of gratitude. ”

— Karl Barth

Airline Profits

February 2016

Volume II—Issue 7

“ ‘Thank you’ is the best prayer that anyone could say. I say that one a lot. Thank you expresses extreme gratitude, humility, understanding. ―Alice Walker

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