Opening Keynote by Henrik Hololei World ATM Congress in Madrid - 12 March 2019
Ladies and gentlemen, Dear Friends, •
It is a real pleasure and honour for me to be here in Madrid at the World ATM Congress 2019. Let me first start by thanking my friend Jeff Poole for organising this event and Spain for its hosting it again. It is a great joy to see you all gathered here today and to spot among you so many familiar faces from the global ATM community.
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World ATM Congress is always a great opportunity to discuss with the key players the challenges that the aviation sector is globally facing and in particular the developments in the ATM sector. It is also a perfect place to talk about the opportunities as discussions here help to shape our future policies and actions.
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Let me start by reminding you that today we are living through volatile and unpredictable times, faced with global geopolitical instability and with Brexit looming and development of oil price being another unpredictable variable. All these elements together and separately could have a negative effect on our economic growth and aviation sector more particularly.
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However, despite these aspects, until now, aviation has proven to be remarkably resilient to external shocks and has been able to overcome crises in the past. Last year was another great year for civil aviation, as 4.3 billion passengers were carried by air on scheduled services, which is up 6.1% from 2017. Aviation supports our economies with over half of the world’s tourists travelling across international borders transported by air, and air transport carrying some 35% of world trade by value in 2018.
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At the same time, in the European network served for the first time more than 11 million flights, which is an increase of 3.8% compared to 2017 which means more than 1,2 billion pax.
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When we look at this year, the growth figures are still very strong but it is a year full of unpredictability. We are faced with potential trade wars that are inspired by protectionism driven by nationalism. This means a diversion from the win-win principle – so inherent to the western
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democratic and open systems – towards a win-lose approach that brings along trends that unravel the benefits of globalisation as well as the multilateral world order that has been the basis of the progressive world since 1945. •
Why is it important to underline this – because aviation is, as Alexandre the Juniac so rightly puts it – "the business of freedom". Freedom means open markets with liberal economic policies, multilateralism, equal opportunities to compete globally; positively embracing globalisation and the opportunities coming with it. The current global trends challenge this. Sadly, because what we need is a strong and global aviation sector that provides connectivity for people and businesses, fostering trade and tourism.
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In the last years, aviation has been growing thanks to openness, competition and because people want to experience new places and seize new opportunities. Connectivity is a great good and we must make sure it remains like that. However, it is not self-evident and we must all continuously work for ensuring connectivity in regional and global scale.
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Airbus’ latest 20-year forecast foresees an annual increase in demand for air traffic of 4.4%, which is nearly double the GDP growth rate, i.e. this means essentially, that like in the past, that global air traffic will double over the next 15 years. This is good news. However, this phenomenal growth will also bring many serious challenges: o Firstly, maintaining high safety and security standards in an ever growing aviation industry where competition puts additional pressure on the system – this is and always remain the most important issues in aviation; o Secondly, how to deal with raising capacity crunch in the air and on the ground – last year was a pretty stark reminder of that with almost every 5th flight in European airspace being late and this is spreading into a global phenomenon, especially in the main growth areas in Asia and SE Asia; this is also paired with the limitations of the capacity on the ground and airport development; o Thirdly, how to mitigate aviation impact on climate and how to make the sector more sustainable. With the significant growth forecast, it is essential that this growth is truly sustainable. The 2/9
expectations and calls for cleaner air transport will be growing substantially in the coming years and there must be a credible response by the aviation industry. Research and innovation as well as new technologies will play a key role here. o I mentioned capacity, but we need to find the most appropriate balance and mechanisms to address the increased impact on our environment. It is possible through improved ATM to contribute to reducing CO2 emissions of aviation. o For example: the introduction of Free Route Airspace in Europe, allowing airlines to take more direct routes, has saved more than 2.6 million tonnes CO2 since 2014 and SESAR solutions allow to introduce breakthrough technologies and modernise our navigation systems. o The entry into force of CORSIA in 2021 will bring additional benefits at global scale, and combined with most recent policies on renewable energy, will allow airlines to fly on cleaner fuels. o The Single European Sky will benefit from a revised Performance Scheme, with an enhancement of flight efficiency supporting lower fuel burn. o However, today the ATM delays and longer routes are generating 5.2% additional CO2 emissions and those who are not delivering on ATM capacity are directly responsible for this. o Fourthly, all the new challenges brought by digitalisation - big data, AI, drones etc. Digitalisation also leads me to also mentioning cyber-security. The opportunities of big data do not go without their risks. As aviation is global by nature, we are called to engage in finding global solutions. Indeed, we work as an integrated system where the weakest link can destabilise the whole chain. And none of us wants to be the weakest link! o Today, big data and artificial intelligence are, for many, just buzzwords but they are going to significantly shape the way we travel and they will bring a big change to aviation. I would not dare to guess what that change would be but, believe me, it will be significant. The regulators, as well as the economic operators,
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could struggle to find the right tune and right instruments to address this and make sure the equal opportunities to all market participants would be maintained. •
These and other challenges will have to be addressed in a sustainable and robust way so that aviation sector at the same time maintains its license to grow. This is a challenge for all of us. Ladies and Gentlemen,
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Let me now turn back to the main issues discussed here and now, namely how to tackle the big issues in ATM. For the European aviation and after shocking wake-up call from last summer, there is no doubt that the biggest issue is the ability to deliver sufficient capacity in order to service safely and securely and efficiently the European Airspace.
Capacity •
For Europe, the lack of scalable capacity has sparked us to ask: Are we reaching the limits of the current system?
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Let’s have a look at last year using statistics provided by Eurocontrol. With over 11 million flights in the European network, and over 37,101 flights on September 7 - the all time high - en-route delay increased to unacceptable 1.73 minutes per flight, a doubling of the 2017 figure. This resulted in a total delay of 19.1 million minutes, leading to an average delay of 19 minutes per flight.
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The disruptive events were generating 14,3%, adverse weather conditions 25,3% and lack of capacity and staffing staggering 60,4% of all delays.
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It is even more shocking that only one ANSP alone generated 27% of total European network delays. This is simply not acceptable neither sustainable. It is clear that action is needed now but even with the best intentions, we would not be able to avoid similar pattern this year.
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The challenge becomes even bigger in the future as even with expanded airport capacity, Eurocontrol expects that in Europe, by 2040, 1.5 million flights would not be accommodated in due to capacity constraints, meaning that 160 million passengers would not be able to fly.
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Against this scenario, I firmly believe that it is our collective responsibility to make sure our kids and grandkids see aviation as an opportunity to connect people and places but not as an unpleasant
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experience without the great excitement, that stepping in a plane should bring. •
Hence my rhetorical question: do we consider such a situation as sustainable?
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For the next two decades, we expect around 550 million new passengers in the European region alone. This should be good news to aviation but is it? Some airlines have even started to talk about, believe it or not, a capacity cap in the European airspace. This would mean closing the market for new entrants, that would never be accepted by Commission but the hard truth is that thinking out of the box and firm action is needed.
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We must act together and join our forces to mitigate and remedy this. We owe it to our people and we owe it to all participants in the aviation value network.
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So what needs to be done? I am sure that there is a common understanding that we need to make our ATM system more efficient, flexible, scalable and therefore sustainable as well as more resilient. In the short term, we must make sure that the ATM capacity and staff shortage of summer 2018 will not become an epidemic and it should in no circumstances be seen as a new normal.
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With this in mind the European Commission is exploring, with key stakeholders, a new airspace architecture that would substantially enhance the performance of air traffic management by 2035, moving towards a service-oriented system based on greater automation, exchange of data and virtualisation. The time to speed up the deployment of SESAR solutions is now and complacency is simply not an option.
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We are working intensively to find solutions, thinking out of the box. To this end, I have also invited a Wise Persons Group to come up with proposals for concrete short, medium and long term solutions. I am very pleased of the way they have worked and I hope we can present their recommendations to you in the coming months, their work, together with the new airspace architecture and deployment of new technologies would create a solid ground for a change that should deliver the genuine Single European Sky.
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However, we will need the commitment and support of all the key players in the aviation community to put these measures into practice.
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I would also like to remind you that the lack of ATM capacity does not only concern en-route, but also the approach to airports. So it is absolutely essential that airports equally increase their capacity. They need to make new investments to accommodate the growing air traffic and make sure planes can land also in the future. It is easy to say but in reality we know very well how difficult is to expand an airport (I am not even talking about building a new airport).
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In maximising the existing scarce capacity, we should also ask ourselves whether the current system of slot allocation is still fully fit for purpose. I believe in the industry's ability to self-regulate but this must yield into measurable improvements. If this is not the case then we must also consider further regulatory action as we must be serious in tackling the issue of the efficient use of scarce capacity.
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Europe is not the only region to face the challenge of congested skies or congested airports. Other parts of the world see their domestic and international market share skyrocketing each year. I am thinking for example of Asia and South East Asia where the domestic market is growing with double digits year on year (+10.4% in 2018).
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As you know, I am a firm believer in cooperating globally: when common problems arise, common solutions should be found! Addressing capacity challenges in a coordinated fashion will undoubtedly be part of the solution in the years to come.
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We should therefore strengthen our cooperation with one another and build new partnerships. Addressing capacity constraints means harmonising our ATM technologies, bringing new concepts from their definition to their deployment, improving data flow between our navigation service providers, and joining our efforts in the context of ICAO to achieve global interoperability.
Drones and U-Space •
Let me now turn to the major new opportunity in aviation and take a deeper look at new entrants – the drones and the U-space which is the European version of UTM – the unmanned traffic management system.
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In the next years to come we expect a steady uptake of drones in commercial activities. By 2022 the global number of drones is projected to reach 45 million units – of which some 25% in Europe. The number of specialized drones is expected to rise spectacularly, to more than 9 million. More importantly, also 75% of the 35 million mass-market drones are expected to be used for commercial activities.
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These are very serious figures that project – perhaps even modestly – the perspective of this business. •
For longer perspective, Airbus forecasts for 2035 that about an equivalent number to daily flights in European airspace today – over 30.000 in one day - to happen in one single hour over one single city. That is what I call a real challenge. So if we cannot or are unable or unwilling as some to tackle the current lack of capacity, then how would we be able to deal with this new challenge.
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What is the EU doing to deal with these new challenges? First of all, we made drones an integral part of our Aviation Strategy already in 2015 and embedded drones in the wider innovation, decarbonisation and digitalisation policies.
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So, what have we so far achieved?
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First, as of September last year, the new safety rules are in force, giving the EU the competence to regulate all drones regardless of mass. We are currently in the final stage in finalising our first rules for regulating drones and we hope to see them shortly adopted.
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Secondly, we have launched the European U-Space Demonstrator Network, where some air navigation service providers have also presented their activities related to the U-Space.
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Thirdly, the SESAR Joint Undertaking which was tasked to present the initial concept of U-Space has also overseen the launch of a batch of very concrete U-Space demonstrators that are also being presented during this World ATM Congress.
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All these steps and many other will and should take us closer to safe, secure and sustainable drone operations, in fully respect to our privacy!
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Much more work and focus is needed regarding the U-Space, the automated and digital system that will eventually enable drones to fly in a fully automated way and over longer distances. We are working together with EASA on this regulatory initiative, with the support of Member States, Eurocontrol and SESAR.
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The U-Space must take a holistic view on how to connect all different actors and bring together solutions from various industries, in order to embrace these new digital technologies and integrate safety, security, privacy and environmental aspects.
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For our common success, Europe has to lead and we have to do this in the European way. I can tell you that all is seriously challenging but 7/9
equally fascinating initiative and our aim is to create the best global practices in Europe together with all of you. People •
Finally, let me say a couple of words about “people”. We all have a lot of appreciation and respect towards all our ATCOs and people who work in this very intense and most challenging industry. It is also essential to maintain these high quality jobs and integrate the highly skills workforce with the development of digitalisation and automation. We also need to attract young people to join this industry and guide as well as educate the next generation of aviation professionals.
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The shortage of air traffic controllers is already a fact, which shows that not enough has been done in the previous years to prepare for today’s situation. This cannot be repeated. Today it is estimated that by 2036, the aviation sector will need additional 620.000 pilots (67 new pilots per day), 125.000 new air traffic controllers (13 new ATC per day) and 1.3 millions of aircraft maintenance personnel to cope with the growth of air transport. Are we ready to attract these people, educate them and integrate them in the industry? In short, we have no option – we must do so.
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At the same time, while 90% of future jobs require some level of digital literacy, 44% of Europeans lack basic digital skills. Across the EU, ICT professionals and STEM professionals (those involved in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) are among the top five skill shortage occupations. Even though job opportunities are growing, the number of graduates in these fields is not catching up.
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What can we do to address this? First and foremost, our primary target should be young people, as they will be the tomorrow’s professionals in this fascinating industry.
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We must also break the stereotype according to which the aviation sector is a man's world. How can we seriously explain that we have less than 5% female pilots but a more balanced percentage of female cabin attendants? Both work on the same planes, with similar work patterns. This is simply not sustainable nor in line with the 21th century values.
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The profession of air traffic controller is already at the forefront of the digital revolution. It requires very specific technical and operational skills, constantly subject to innovation and to technological development. As we all know, new challenges are best tackled with people of different skillset and mind-set. So promoting diversity is the only way forward and let’s achieve together this objective. 8/9
Ladies and Gentlemen, •
In a moment, we will hear more how closely and effectively the EU and the US work together to modernise ATM solutions and to promote global interoperability of ATM systems.
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The Memorandum of Cooperation on ATM modernisation, global interoperability and civil aviation research and development that the US and the European Union signed in 2011 and renewed in 2017 is a key enabler for this work.
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Let me also underline the excellent cooperation we have with the FAA and with the acting Administrator Dan Elwell. I would also like her to pay tribute to previous FAA Administrator Michal Huerta who always helped to reinforce this very important trans-atlantic link. Dear friends,
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Thank you once again for inviting me here and for your kind attention.
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I wish this World ATM Congress great success, well judging upon what I have seen already – it is a great success and let's tackle the big issues in ATM together and live up to the great potential in front of us!
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Enjoy your stay here! ------------------
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