Monthly Economic Brief September 2013 issue
Executive summary Growth Real GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a year ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter. On the expenditure side, the growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private Consumption. On the production side, Manufacturing is the main drag. In July, both Manufacturing and Agriculture production continued to decline. Private consumption and investment continued to cool down, although the yearͲtoͲdate cumulative level are still higher than last year’s. FDI also dropped. Export tumbled and registered Ͳ3.7% growth in the first 7 months of 2013. The problem occurred in every main export markets, except ASEAN. On the other hand, Import also registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 20% in the period. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate remains low. Government spending so far this year has been tightening compared with the same period last year.
Confidence in private s Businesses and Indust pessimistic. Consumer pessimistic.
FPO and NESDB cut th for 2013 drastically in projection is now betw 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for
Employment and wea Unemployment rate d June, the lowest unem major and emerging ec
Thailand’s per capita in 5,210 in 2012, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is worsened. ries were more r were also more
eir growth projections August. Consensus ween 4.05Ͳ4.50% for r 2014.
alth distribution ecreased to 0.55% in mployment level among conomies.
ncome was at USD 102nd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability Both Head line and Core inflation decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75%, a rather low level by historical and international standards. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio is at 15.7%, a rather healthy level. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q13. Fiscal balance is improving. Budget balance for the first 7 months of 2013 turned positive. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 44% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment in the first 7 months of 2013 is slightly negative due to current account deficit. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. THB depreciated 1.6% against a basket of key currencies in August.
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
Page 4
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
7 13 21 27 30 33
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
36 39
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total system’s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
49 53
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
66
43
59
3
GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a ye rate in the first quarter Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%
CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3% 2.2%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ear ago, less than half the growth
7.8% 6.5% 5.4%
2.8%
5%
0.1%
-2.3%
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Manufacturing’s slow down in the overall GDP growth the most Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 2Q13 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 2.8
GDP
14.2
Hotel&Res Other social
10.6
Financial
10.3 7.5
Transport
6.6
Education Construction
5.0
Health&Social
4.9
Private HH
4.1
RealEstate
3.9 3.4
PublicAdmin Trading
2.9
Mining
2.9
Utilities
2.7 1.5
Agriculture Manufacture
-1.0
Fishing -7.9 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
e second quarter has dragged the
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 2Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 2.8
GDP 0.7
Transport
0.6
Hotel&Res
0.5
Financial
0.4
Trading
0.2
Other social Education
0.2
RealEstate
0.2
Construction
0.1
Utilities
0.1
Agriculture
0.1
PublicAdmin
0.1
Mining
0.1
Health&Social
0.1
Private HH
0.0
Fishing Manufacture
-0.1 -0.4
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Export contributed the most to to
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 2Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
2.8
G
5.8
I
5.2
I (capital)
4.5
ͲM X C
4.1
2.8
2.4
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
otal real GDP growth in 2Q13
Q13 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 2Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
2.8
X
2.1
C
1.3
I (capital)
1.1
G
0.6
I (Inventory)
0.2
Discrpncy ͲM
0.0
-2.5
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total system’s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
7
Manufacturing production contin
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.3%
194.2 174.8 152.1
161.1
182.6 170.0
138.6 124.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
nued to drop in July
Monthly Average 250.0
200.0
177.7 181.6
2012
2013
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ3.3% YͲoͲY Ͳ4.5%
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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In July, most sectors had lower pr
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector July 2013, percent
16
Electrical 10.6
Petroleum 4.7
Wood products
2.8
Electronic
2.1
Mineral
0.4
Metal products Apparel
-1.2
Textiles
-1.3 -2.9
Chemical Rubber&Plastic
-5.0
Paper
-5.1
Vehicles
-5.6 -6.3
Basic Mat Tobacco
-7.1
Office automate
-7.3 -9.1
Transport Equip Food & Bev
-10.2
Precision instru
-10.6
Machineries Leather
-11.6 -13.5
Furniture -16.6 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
roduction from the prior month
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector July 2013, percent
6.1
10.3 23.4 7.6 2.4 -0.4 -2.6 -10.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 5.0 -8.7 -2.7 7.5 -9.7 -7.5 -5.0 8.4 -9.8 -8.8 5.5
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Capacity utilization rate decrease
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70%
64.6%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
ed slightly in July
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector July 2013, percent Precision instru Vehicles Chemical Electrical Petroleum Machineries Mineral Transport Equip Paper Rubber&Plastic Electronic Metal products Office automate Tobacco Basic Mat Food & Bev Apparel Textiles Furniture Leather Wood products
125% 95% 91% 89% 79% 78% 77% 77% 71% 66% 61% 61% 56% 50% 49% 48% 48% 44% 31% 26% 22%
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Thailand is one of the countries th production from a year ago
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ Jun China Ͳ Jul Vietnam Ͳ Aug Pakistan Ͳ May Australia Ͳ Q1 Indonesia Ͳ Jun Malaysia Ͳ Jun Brazil Ͳ Jun Singapore Ͳ Jul Taiwan Ͳ Jul US Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 Euro Area Ͳ Jun -0.8
Russia Ͳ Jul -2.2
India Ͳ Jun
-2.6
South Korea Ͳ Jun Thailand Ͳ Jul
-4.5
Japan Ͳ Jun
-4.6
Source: The Economist
hat have lower manufacturing
x 10.0 9.7 4.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.3
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Big drop in Agriculture production
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.1%
106.1
113.4 112.9 109.7 111.5
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
n in July
Monthly Average 250.0
123.2
127.1
200.0
YͲoͲY Ͳ2.7% MͲoͲM Ͳ15.6%
150.0
2012
100.0
2013
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total system’s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
13
Private consumption slowed dow
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.2%
111.2
117.8
126.2 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2 127.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
wn in July
Index* Monthly Average 160.0
147.0
155.0
139.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
2013
2012 145.0
140.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.5%
135.0
YͲoͲY Ͳ0.7%
130.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Most consumption expenditures a slow down in July Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 7 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent Passenger Car (Unit) 11.1
NGV (kg.)*
10.0
Benzene & Gasohol (litre) Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
6.7
Commercial Car (Unit)
5.8
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
5.1
Diesel (litre)
3.5
LPG (litre)*
3.5
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
2.9
Motocycle (Unit)
-1.0
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
still grew so far this year despite Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change July vs June 2013, percent 25.0
0.9 -0.5 4.7 -1.1 -8.6 -0.9 2.0 -0.3 -2.1 1.3
15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment continued to d
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.9%
172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8
193.0
183.4 160.8
133.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
drop in July
Monthly Average 300.0
2013 250.0
2012 242.1 200.0
210.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.2%
YͲoͲY Ͳ5.4%
50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
All key private investment expend far this year despite recent slow d Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 7 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
21.7
13.4
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
7.0
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
5.0
-2.6
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ditures had impressive growth so down Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change July vs June 2013, percent
-5.2
2.5
-0.2
1.0
0.0
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Cumulative FDI in the first half of from the level at the same period Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
9,460
9,112 8,547 7,778
4,853
06FY
07FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
2013 dropped almost by half d last year
Monthly cumulative FDI* 8,000 7,000
2012
6,000
7,235
12FY
5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
2013 0
J
F M A M J
J
A
S O N D
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BOI’s net application for the first from the same period last year
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht
CAGR
21.5%
396 351 297 236
08FY
09FY
10FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
11FY
7 months of 2013 dropped 10%
irect investment*
648
332
12FY
298
2012/7M
2013/7M
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most property indicators increase
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 6 months of 2013 vs those of 2012, percent
38.3
Condo unit registered
18.9
Value of land transaction
6.6
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal
-5.1
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ed in the first half of this year
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change June vs May 2013, percent
148.7
29.1
-48.4
-13.5
20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total system’s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
21
Export has decreased in the first 7 Agro and Electronics the main dra
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 7 months of 2013 vs that of 2012, percent Total export Metal Forestry Automotive Chemicals Optical instru Other manufacturing PetroͲchemical Furniture Jewellery Electrical Apparels Machinery Toiletries Electronics Agriculture Aircrafts Agro products Footware Petroleum Photo instru Mining Fishery Other export ReͲexports
-3.7 17.7 8.1 6.8 6.5 2.8 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1 -3.1 -6.3 -6.6 -7.1 -7.4 -7.7 -13.9 -18.2 -19.6 -30.3 -52.0 -94.5
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
7 months, with Other export, ags Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth Total export Automotive Metal Chemicals PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Forestry Optical instru Jewellery Furniture ReͲexports Apparels Electrical Footware Toiletries Aircrafts Machinery Mining Photo instru Fishery Agriculture Petroleum Electronics Agro products Other export
-3.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4
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Apart from ASEAN, export decrea year Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
7.1 (Trilli
100% =
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.7
Middle East
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
EU
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
11.3
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
11.7
11.1
11.3
12.7
12.2 18.4
18.1
17.4
18.1
21.0
21.0
Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
16.6
East Asia exͲJapan
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
22.5
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased in every regions so far this
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 7 months of 2013 vs 2012
ion) 0.3%
-3.3%
-7.8%
EU
-4.2%
Rest of the world
-4.3%
NAFTA
-4.9%
-7.3%
ASEAN
East Asia ex Japan
Middle East
Japan 23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Import has decreased in the first decrease in intermediate goods
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 7 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
-0.4
Total import
18
Others
3.0
Consumer goods
Capital goods
-2.8
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
-3.4
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-3.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
7 months of 2013, driven by the
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions
8.7
Contributions to total import growth
Total import
-0.4
2.1
Others
0.2
Consumer goods
Capital goods
-0.7
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
-0.7
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel -1.4
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 20% in t
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
8.4%
15.9 13.8 10.8
11.7
14.5
14.1
11.5
10.0
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism
the first 7 months of 2013
Monthly cumulative 25.0
22.3 19.2
Y 11FY 12FY
20.0
2012
15.0
10.0
5.0
2013
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
China accounted for more than ha arrivals so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world
14.3
15.3
15.6
14.7
13.9
Americas
6.2
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.2
Europe
27.3
East Asia
28.7
27.9
52.1
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.1
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
alf of the total increase in tourist
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 7 months of 2013 vs 2012, Thousands
1,292.2
China 263.4
Russia Malaysia Japan
% of total change
212.7 121.9
51% 10% 8% 5%
Indonesia
95.4
4%
Singapore
85.6
3%
Hong Kong
84.1
3%
Korea
81.7
3%
Taiwan
72.1
3%
Vietnam
62.1
2%
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total system’s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
27
No change in policy rate nor othe August Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Sep-12
3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Aug-13
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Sep-12
0.00% Aug-13
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
er interest rates in the market in
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Aug-13
Sep-12
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Sep-12
anches
0.00% Aug-13
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
9% decrease in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2013 0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in the first 7 months of 2013
2012
J
A
S
O
N
D
29
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nk’s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total system’s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
30
Businesses and Industries were m
Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
51.2 50
54.4
53.9 48.8
49.9
48.3
Worse
0 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
more pessimistic in July
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
95.5
93.5
92.9
94.3
93.1
91.9
Worse
0 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumers in overall were more
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Mar-1
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior mo Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of th Source: Ministry of Commerce
pessimistic in July
On job
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 3
May-13
onth e prior month he prior month
Jul-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
33
FPO and NESDB cut their growth August Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 6.00
5.50
FPO BOT
5.00
NESDB 4.50 The Economist poll
4.00
3.50
3.00 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
projections for 2013 drastically in
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00
5.50
BOT
5.00
4.50
The Economist poll
4.00
3.50
3.00 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Forecast as of, month ending 34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are other economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Aug 31st 2013 China Philippines Pakistan Indonesia India Vietnam Malaysia Thailand South Korea Hong Kong Australia Taiwan Singapore Russia Brazil Japan US Euro Area -0.6
Source: The Economist
7.5 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.5 4.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7
e in the middle compared to
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of Aug 31st 2013 7.3 6.0 3.5 5.9 6.1 5.5 5.0 4.7 3.4 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.3 2.6 1.7 2.7 0.8 35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
36
Unemployment rate decreased sl
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
ightly to 0.55% in June
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
0.80
2012 0.60
2013
0.40
0.68
0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Jun Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Jun South Korea Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Jul Vietnam Ͳ 2011 Japan Ͳ Jun
0.6 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9
China Ͳ Q2
4.1
Taiwan Ͳ Jul
4.2
Russia Ͳ Jul Brazil Ͳ Jul Australia Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Pakistan Ͳ 2011 US Ͳ Jul Philippines Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 7.4 7.5 9.9 12.1
38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
39
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
40
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 41
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
43
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 186,950
36,770
France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880 46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th with higher GNI per capita than C
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550
hailand’s rank improved to 89th, China
es
8,710
30
0
( ) = World rank 84,670
Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370 47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
49
Both Head line and Core inflation
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
Head line 1.50%
1.00%
Core* 0.50%
0.00% Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
n continued to decrease in August
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product August 2013, percent Meat
8.2
Tobacco & alcohol
5.4
Eggs & milk
5.3
Energy
3.0
Prepared food at home
1.3
Rice
1.3
Food away from home
1.3
Housing & furnishing
1.1
Veg & fruit
1.0
Transport & Commu
1.0
Apparel and footware
0.8
Medical care
0.7
Seasoning
0.5
Non alcoholic beverage
0.5
Recreation & Education
0.4
50 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jul Vietnam Ͳ Aug
6.
Hong Kong Ͳ Jul
6.5
Russia Ͳ Jul
6.3
Brazil Ͳ Jul 2.7
China Ͳ Jul Philippines Ͳ Jul
2.5
Australia Ͳ Q2
2.4
Malaysia Ͳ Jul
2.0
US Ͳ Jul
2.0
Singapore Ͳ Jul
1.9
Euro Area Ͳ Jul
1.6
Thailand Ͳ Aug
1.6 1.4
South Korea Ͳ Jul Japan Ͳ Jun
0.2
Taiwan Ͳ Jul
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
he low side compared to other
2013* 9.6
9.6
8.6
7.7
8.3
7.5
7.5
6.9
.9
4.1 6.4 6.5 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.5 2.4 1.5 2.5 1.7 0.1 1.3
51 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Almost no inflation at producer p
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Mar-13
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
price level
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product August 2013, percent Fishing Livestocks Metal Food Leather & footware NonͲmetallic mineral Transport equip Wood Chemical Forestry Pulp & paper -0.1 Mechinery -0.1 Textile -0.2 Electrical equip -0.3 Petroluem products -0.5 Crop -1.8 Energy -2.2 Rubber & plastic -4.0 Basic metals -5.8 Other manu goods-7.3
25.9 23.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.0
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
53
Bank’s loan continued to increase decreased slightly in June Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
De
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95%
91.9%
90.8%
91.4%
91.1%
92.2%
9
90% 85% Jul-12
Source: Bank of Thailand
Aug-12 Sep-12
Oct-12 Nov-12 D
e while liquidity in the system
M-o-M +1.9% Y-o-Y +12.8%
ec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
it* ratio
93.1%
93.1%
Dec-12
Jan-13
93.9%
95.3% 93.4%
Feb-13 Mar-13
93.5%
93.3%
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased slightly in 2Q percent of total loan
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
477
05YE
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans 8.16%
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85%
3.60
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
07YE
08YE
09YE
10Y
Q13 in both absolute value and as
ss NPLs Outstanding
7
YE
270
256
11YE
12YE
257
265
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
0%
YE
2.75%
11YE
2.26%
12YE
2.18%
2.21%
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio decreased to level Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 13.4%
13.3%
1 14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
15.7% in June but still a healthy
nks* Month End 16.5%
16.2%
14.8%
16.0%
2013
15.5%
2012
15.0%
14.5%
2011
anches
2012
14.0%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand is one of the many coun rates Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of August 31st 2013
3M riskͲfree interest rates
11.8
India Pakistan
9.1
Brazil
9.0
Russia
7.2
Vietnam
7.0 6.2
Indonesia 4.7
China 3.2
Malaysia South Korea
2.7
Australia
2.6 2.2
Thailand
1.4
Philippines Taiwan
0.9
Singapore
0.4
Hong Kong
0.4
US
0.3
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
tries with negative real interest
=
Expected 2013 inflation*
Real interest rates
9.6
2.2
7.5
1.6
6.5
2.5
6.4
0.8
6.9
0.1
7.7
-1.5
2.7
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.7
1.0
2.4
0.2
2.5
-0.3
3.1
-1.7
1.3
-0.4 2.4
-2.0 4.1
0.1
-3.7
1.5
-1.2
1.5
-1.3 0.1
57
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SET decreased 9% in August amid sell out Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end
1.3%
2.4%
-2.0%
-2.2%
-7.1%
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
-9.1%
Aug-13
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0 -120.0 -140.0
D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
E
d yet another round of big foreign Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of August 28th 2013 31.5%
Pakistan (KSE)
28.3%
Japan (Nikkei 225) 19.0%
US (NAScomp)
14.6%
US (S&P 500)
13.1%
US (DJIA) UK (FTSE 100)
9.0%
Australia (All Ord.)
8.9%
France (CAC 40)
8.8% 7.2%
Germany (DAX)
5.0%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
1.6%
Taiwan (TWI) -0.2%
Malaysia (KLSE) China (SSEB, $ terms)
-2.7%
HK (Hang Seng)
-5.0%
Singapore (STI)
-5.1%
S Korea (KOSPI)
-5.6%
Indonesia (JSX)
-6.7%
India (BSE)
-7.4%
China (SSEA)
-7.4%
Thailand (SET)
-8.3%
58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
59
Huge government budget deficit r slightly better than in 2009
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6%
-1.7 -2.0%
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
relative to GDP in 2012, only
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
-1.1%-1.1%
-1.3%
% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY 60
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The government managed to ach first 7 months of 2013, big improv Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1
Revenue 1,013
1,109
16
0
Budget balance -996
-1,109
1,241
-36
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1,484
110 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ieve budget surplus during the vement from last year
Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 100.0 ,751
1,902
2,077
2013 0.0
-100.0
-75
-28 -412 -200.0
2012
-300.0
1,825
-1,930 -400.0 -2,489
-500.0
0FY 11FY 12FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
61 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Both budget and cash balance for are positive Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110
16
24
0
88
8
-36 -45
-1 -144 -174
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
r the first 7 months of this year
plus)
6
9
-28 -75
00 -96
-137
-266
-364 -401
-412 -466
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
'13/7mo
62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit in 2013 is GDP
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2013*, percent Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan China Thailand Indonesia Brazil Euro Area US
-4
Malaysia -5.1
India
-5.2
Vietnam Japan Pakistan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-8.3 -8.8
expected to be around 2.8% of
ercentage of GDP 2.0 0.7 0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -2.8 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -4.0
4.3
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt so
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%
2010
2011
2012
Jun-13
8%
8%
7%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Ext as
o far in 2013
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2009
ternal debt percent of total
2010
2011
2012
Jun-13
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
65
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 2Q13 grew 2.8% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, th Consumption Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing and Agriculture pro • Private consumption and Private In • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary policy is still proͲgrowth • Businesses and Industries were mo • FPO and NESDB cut their growth pr projection is now between 4.2Ͳ5.3%
• Unemployment rate decreased to 0 • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Both Head line and Core inflation d • Banking system is quite stable. Ban NPL increased slightly in the second • Budget balance for the first 7 mont too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciate 1.6% in August.
ar ago, less than half the growth rate in the first quarter he growth was driven mainly by growth in Export and Private
anufacturing is the main drag oduction continued to decline in July nvestment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic in July rojections for 2013 drastically in August; consensus % for 2013 and 4.7Ͳ5.0% for 2014
0.55% in June, a very low level compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
decreased again in August to 1.59% and 0.75% respectively nkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital ratio is still high, at 15.7% in June. Total systemâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s d quarter ths of 2013 turned positive. Public debt is increasing but not
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
66
Deficit Balance of Payments in th largely to current account (trade +
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
5.3 1.2 -0.2 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
12FY
13/7mo
e first 7 months of 2013 due + service) deficit Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
on
29.8
17.3
17.0 8.3 -0.5
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/7mo
-5.6
-4.0
12FY
13/7mo
Net service income & transfer
+
-15.2
08FY
-10.7
-11.1 -19.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.2
2.5
4.3
12FY
13/7mo
-4.7 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
67
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q2
1
Taiwan Ͳ Q2 5.8%
Malaysia Ͳ Q2
5.0%
Vietnam Ͳ 2011
3.5%
South Korea Ͳ Jul
2.9%
Philippines Ͳ Mar
2.5%
Russia Ͳ Q2 China Ͳ Q2
2.1%
Euro Area Ͳ Jun
1.8%
Japan Ͳ Jun
1.0%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q1
0.9% 0.1%
Thailand Ͳ Q2 -1.0%
Pakistan Ͳ Q2 Indonesia Ͳ Q2
-2.4%
US Ͳ Q1
-2.7%
Australia Ͳ Q1
-2.8%
Brazil Ͳ Jul India Ͳ Q1 Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-3.2% -4.5%
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.0%
49.4
11.7%
52.8 14.2 0.2 59.8 10.2 47.9 211.6 247.1 54.1 5.2 -1.4 -2.3 -28.8 -425.7 -51.1 -77.7 -87.8
68 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Worsened trade balance so far in than import Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
ŕľ&#x17E;
Cumulative Export 8,000 7,000
2012
Cumulative 8,000 7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
2013
Y-o-Y -3.7%
0
1,000
201
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J F M A
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2013 as export dropped more
=
Import
3
Cumulative Trade balance 0
-100
2012
2012
-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600
Y-o-Y -0.4%
M J J A S O N D
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
-700 -800
J F M A M J J A S O N D
69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in b terms Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
04YE
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.9%
04YE
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
08YE
both absolute and relative to GDP
E
09YE
%
28.8%
E
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.8%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/1Q
38.8%
40.0%
12YE
13/1Q
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
More public debt and more longͲ composition in 2013 Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
8%
92%
09YE
13%
87%
10YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
15%
20%
23%
85%
80%
77%
11YE
12YE
13/1Q
term debt in external debt
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
56%
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
45%
46%
44%
55%
54%
56%
11YE
12YE
13/1Q
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340%
330%
299%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
286%
13/1Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
8.2% 7.6%
4.8%
4.7%
4.2% 3.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/1Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
54.4
55.9
2004
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
9.1 6.9
2004
5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly so far this year but
191.7
206.4
205.8
195.3
2011
2012
Jul-13
154.1
0
8
2009
2010
er of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
8
2009
the last 12 months
2010
2011
10.0
2012
9.2
Jul-13
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB depreciated 1.6% against key
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
114.0
Baht appreciates
112.0
110.0
108.0
106.0
MͲoͲM
Ͳ1.6%
Baht depreciates Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
98.0
3.6%
96.0
94.0 Aug-13
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
y currencies
e
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of August 31st 2013 EUR Ͳ 42.7779
8.1
CNY Ͳ 5.3214
5.9
0
KRW Ͳ 0.029
0
TWD Ͳ 1.0758
2.2
0
USD Ͳ 32.2155
2.2
MXN Ͳ 2.4118
2.2
0
0
0
4.3
SGD Ͳ 25.3983
0.4
GBP Ͳ 50.0957
0.4
VND Ͳ 0.0015
0.0
MYR Ͳ 9.882
-3.0
PHP Ͳ 0.7316
-3.1
IDR Ͳ 3.1961 AUD Ͳ 28.9514 INR Ͳ 0.5189
-9.0 -11.2 -13.7
JPY Ͳ 32.9821 -18.3 Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 74
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