130831 thai emag by Ake Saroj

Charting Thailand’s Economy® www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 19th issue: กันยายน 2556

Original featured photo from http://freestock.ca/flags_maps_g80-thailand_grunge_flag_p1107.html

ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน • • • • • • •

จีดีพีไตรมาสสองนาผิดหวัง การบริโภค การผลิต ชะลอตัว การจางงานยังสูง เงินเฟอต่ํา สงออกยังทรุด ดุลงบประมาณรัฐบาลดีขึ้น และดัชนีอื่นๆอีกครบถวน ภาษาไทย

ISSN: 2286‐6132

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Charting Thailand’s Economy® ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Charting Thailand’s Economy чѼѥѯьѧьдѥіѱчѕэіѧќѤънѥіҙшѯєзѯдѠіҙлѼѥдѤч

лчъѣѯэѨѕьѯјеъѨѷ 0135555002491 ъѨѠ ѷ ѕѬ:ҕ 19 ўєѬҕ 11, щььјѼѥјѬддѥ шѼѥэјјѼѥјѬддѥ ѠѼѥѯѓѠјѼѥјѬддѥ юъѫєыѥьѨ 12150 Ѥ ъҙ: +662 987 0919, ѱъіѝѥі: +662 987 0917, ѱъіћё Email: admin@chartingthailandeconomy.com

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ѯіѨѕьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥь, ўјѤклѥдєѨдѥіѯяѕѰёіҕшњѤ ѯјелѨчё Ѩ о Ѩ кѩѷ щѪѠѯюѶ ьўѤњѲлеѠкчѤньѨѯћіќудѧлдѶњѥҕ ѳч Җ ѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкеѠкюѨ 2013 дѶєд Ѩ іѣѰѝеҕѥњіњєъѤкѸ е ҖѠщдѯщѨѕкдѤьњҕѥ юіѣѯъћѳъѕдѼѥјѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кѝѓѥњѣѯћіќудѧлщчщѠѕўіѪѠѳєҕ Cover story ѷ ѥъѨѳѷ юеѠкзѼѥ еѠкѯіѥѲьмэѤэьѨл Ѹ кѩ еѠнњьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥьєѥъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлщѩкъѨє њҕѥѯћіќудѧлщчщѠѕ іњєщѩкшіњлѝѠэщѩкѝѓѥњѣеѠкѯћіќудѧлюѤ ллѫэь Ѥ њҕѥѯе Җѥ еҕѥѕ “щчщѠѕ” ўіѪѠѳєҕ ѰьҕьѠьњҕѥѝѼѥўіѤэ Charting Thailand’s Economy ѯіѥшіњлѝѠэшѧчшѥє ҕ чѤньѨѯћіќудѧлъѨѝ ѷ ѼѥзѤреѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѯҕ юѶ ьюіѣлѼѥѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ ѰјѣѲьмэѤэьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯнь ѯзѕдѤэдѥіѝѰдьѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѫдѰкҕъд ѫ єѫє яєўњѤкњҕѥъҕѥьлѣѳч ҖюіѣѱѕньҙлѥдэіѧдѥіеѠкѯіѥ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьмэѤэўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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J F M A M J J A S O N D

¬¥º »n ¥¶´¥ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥі ѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥзіѩкѷ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ ҖьдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳші єѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җ дѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з.яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣ нњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ ѰѝчкщѩкдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіяјѧш ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕ Ѥ рѥцдѥінѣјѠшѤњѯіѧє Ѥ ѯльеѩь ѝр ѷ нч Ѹ ѱчѕчѤньѨдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥі јкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь шҕѥкјчјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ дѥіјкъѫьѱчѕшіклѥдшюъ.дѶ ҕ ѯчѨѕњдѤь ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ ѯнь Ѥ рѥцюѤ рўѥнч Ѥ ѯльѱчѕѲь 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѝкҕ ѠѠдѳч Җ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѯіѧє ѷ ѝкҕ ѝр јчјк ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥдѶѯіѧє ѷ шѧчјэлѥддѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥњѤшщѫчэ ѧ ъѨј ѷ чјк ч Җѥь ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѯшѧэѱшѝѬкщѩк 20% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь Җѥьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѯь Җьдіѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѱчѕѠѤшіѥ чѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 2.5% ѠѕҕѥкѳідѶчѲѨ ьч ҖѥььѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкєѨдѥіѲн Җ Ѫѷ єѤѷьеѠкѓѥзыѫідѧлѰѕҕ лҕѥѕјчјкѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ зњѥєѯнѠ ҕ ѯчѨѕњдѤьдѤэ јкѱчѕѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯнь яѬ Җэіѧѱѓз ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫчѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥц дѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ ьј ѨѸ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬҕ іѣўњҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

´¥ n´ ´ Ã§² ´¥ ¥² ´¤¥´¤Æ n ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯеш ѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 102 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч ҖєѥддњҕѥзьѠѧьѯчѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥдѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэ ѱчѕѯмјѨѕ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч ҖѱчѕіњєчѨеь ъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲь Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ Җь дъє. лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥ юјѠчўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´ ´ Âª¥« ¶ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёъѥкіѥзѥщѪѠњҕѥчѨєѥд ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.59% Ѱјѣѯкѧь ѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.75% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшєѨѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѯёѨѕк 0.1% Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯюѶ ь ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѱчѕѝч ѷ еѩь Ѹ 15.7% ѲьчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬкєѥд ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ Ѡк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјк ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕѱчѕчѫјкэюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 Ѹ юъ. ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥддѥіеѥччѫјэѤрнѯѨ чѧьѝѣёѤч ўьѨш ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкщѩк 1.6% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫјѯкѧь шҕѥкѵѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ

ѝѥіэѤр

ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

ўь Җѥ 15

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

18 24 32 39 42 45

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

65 71

Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Á · Ã Á¡¸¥ 2.8% Ä Å ¦¤ Å ¦¤µÂ¦ ªnµ ¦¹ É ´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%

CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3% 2.2%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

µ° ° ¸ ¹É ÎµÉ ªnµ°´ ¦µ µ¦Á · Ã Ä

7.8% 6.5% 5.4%

2.8%

0.1%

-2.3%

08 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

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µ¦ ³¨° ´ª ° £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ Á È ¸É ° ÎµÉ

´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 2.8

GDP

14.2

Hotel&Res Other social

10.6

Financial

10.3 7.5

Transport

6.6

Education Construction

5.0

Health&Social

4.9

Private HH

4.1

RealEstate

3.9 3.4

PublicAdmin Trading

2.9

Mining

2.9

Utilities

2.7 1.5

Agriculture Manufacture Fishing -7.9

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

-1.0

nª Îµ ´ ¸ É ÎµÄ®o µ¦Á · Ã Ä Å ¦¤µ

´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ 2.8

GDP 0.7

Transport

0.6

Hotel&Res

0.5

Financial

0.4

Trading

0.2

Other social Education

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

Construction

0.1

Utilities

0.1

Agriculture

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Mining

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

Private HH

0.0

Fishing Manufacture

-0.1 -0.4

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¦µ¥ n µ¥®¨´ ¸É ¦³ » o µ¦Á · Ã ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

GDP

2.8

5.8

5.2

I (capital)

4.5

ͲM X C

4.1

2.8

2.4

Note: (*) C = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь, I = дѥіјкъѫь ѰэҕкѯюѶ ь I (capital) = дѥіѝѣѝєъѫь Ѱјѣ I (inve ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕѳч ҖлѥддѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ G = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзіѤу, X = дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѝь ѷ њ

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Ä Å ¦¤µ° ° ¸ ¸Ê ¤µ µ µ¦n °° ´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

GDP

2.8

2.1

1.3

I (capital)

1.1

0.6

I (Inventory)

0.2

Discrpncy ͲM

0.0

-2.5

ѧ з ҖѥзкѯўјѪѠ entory) = дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкеѠкѝь ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѳюѯъѨѕ њ), M = дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѝь ѷ њшюъ.)

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ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

¨ ¨· £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ ¦´ ´ª¨ ¨ Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

4.3%

194.2 174.8 152.1

161.1

182.6 170.0

138.6 124.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

¨ n°Á º°É ´Ê µ Á º° n° ® oµÂ¨³ nª

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

200.0

177.7 181.6

2012

2013

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ3.3% YͲoͲY Ͳ4.5%

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° . . °» µ® ¦¦¤nª Ä® n ¨ ¨· ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, д.з. 2013

Electrical 10.6

Petroleum 4.7

Wood products

2.8

Electronic

2.1

Mineral

0.4

Metal products Apparel

-1.2

Textiles

-1.3 -2.9

Chemical Rubber&Plastic

-5.0

Paper

-5.1

Vehicles

-5.6 -6.3

Basic Mat Tobacco

-7.1

Office automate

-7.3 -9.1

Transport Equip Food & Bev

-10.2

Precision instru

-10.6

Machineries Leather

-11.6 -13.5

Furniture -16.6

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

¨ ¨ µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2013

6.1

10.3 23.4 7.6 2.4 -0.4 -2.6 -10.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 5.0 -8.7 -2.7 7.5 -9.7 -7.5 -5.0 8.4 -9.8 -8.8 5.5

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· ¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч 100% 90% 80% 70%

64.6%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Á º° . . ´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, д.з. 2013 Precision instru Vehicles Chemical Electrical Petroleum Machineries Mineral Transport Equip Paper Rubber&Plastic Electronic Metal products Office automate Tobacco Basic Mat Food & Bev Apparel Textiles Furniture Leather Wood products

125% 95% 91% 89% 79% 78% 77% 77% 71% 66% 61% 61% 56% 50% 49% 48% 48% 44% 31% 26% 22%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ ¥µ¥ ´ª ° ¨ ¨· °» µ® ¦¦¤ Á«¦¬ · Îµ ´ ° Ã¨ ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Philippines Ͳ Jun China Ͳ Jul Vietnam Ͳ Aug Pakistan Ͳ May Australia Ͳ Q1 Indonesia Ͳ Jun Malaysia Ͳ Jun Brazil Ͳ Jun Singapore Ͳ Jul Taiwan Ͳ Jul US Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 Euro Area Ͳ Jun -0.8

Russia Ͳ Jul -2.2

India Ͳ Jun

-2.6

South Korea Ͳ Jun Thailand Ͳ Jul

-4.5

Japan Ͳ Jun

-4.6

Source: The Economist

¤ ° Å ¥ ÎµÉ Á º° ¸É » Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´

10.0 9.7 4.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° . . ¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦ ¦´ ´ª¨ ¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª ´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´ Â « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

3.1%

106.1

113.4 112.9 109.7 111.5

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a

¨ µ ´Ê Á º° n° Â¨³ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ °

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

123.2

127.1

200.0

YͲoͲY Ͳ2.7% MͲoͲM Ͳ15.6%

150.0

2012

100.0

2013

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

and Cooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

´ ¸ µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á° ¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥ µ Â¨oª ´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

3.2%

111.2

117.8

126.2 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2 127.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

´Ê Á º° n° ® oµÂ¨³ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸É

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 160.0

147.0

155.0

139.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

2013

2012 145.0

140.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.5%

135.0

YͲoͲY Ͳ0.7%

130.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á · Ã °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤ Á º° ¨nµ» ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 Passenger Car (Unit) 11.1

NGV (kg.)*

10.0

Benzene & Gasohol (litre) Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

6.7

Commercial Car (Unit)

5.8

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

5.1

Diesel (litre)

3.5

LPG (litre)*

3.5

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

2.9

Motocycle (Unit)

-1.0

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¤µ ° ¸ Â¤oªnµnª Ä® n ³ ¦´ ¨ ¨ Ä ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2013 25.0

0.9 -0.5 4.7 -1.1 -8.6 -0.9 2.0 -0.3 -2.1 1.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Â ´ µ ³¨° ´ª°¥nµ ´ Á Ä Á º° . . ´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

6.9%

172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8

193.0

183.4 160.8

133.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand

Á Ã ¥ ´ ¸ µ¦¨ » Á° ¨ ¨ n°°¸

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 300.0

2013 250.0

2012 242.1 200.0

210.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.2%

YͲoͲY Ͳ5.4%

50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥ µ¦¨ » Á° nª Ä® nÁ · Ã Ä ¨ oµ Ä Á º° ¨nµ» ´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

Domestic commercial car sales (unit)

21.7

13.4

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

7.0

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)

5.0

-2.6

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ Â¤oªnµ ³Á¦·¤É ³¨° ´ª

´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2013

-5.2

2.5

-0.2

1.0

0.0

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ . Ä nª ¦¹ É Â¦ ´ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ Ä ¸ n° ´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

11,331

9,460

9,112 8,547 7,778

4,853

06FY

Source: BOT

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê ¤¸¤¼¨ nµ¨ ¨ ªnµ ¦¹ É Á¤º°É Á ¸¥

´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 8,000 7,000

2012

6,000

7,235

12FY

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

2013 0

F M A M J

S O N D

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ ¤¼¨ nµ¨ ¨ 10% µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

CAGR

21.5%

396 351 297 236

08FY

09FY

10FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

11FY

· · Ã¸ °Å°Ä nª 7 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê ¤¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª

.¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

648

332

12FY

2012/7M

298

2013/7M

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ ¸°´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥rnª Ä® nÁ · Ã Å o ¸Ä

´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 6 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2013

38.3

Condo unit registered

18.9

Value of land transaction

6.6

New housing unit

Constr. Area in municipal

-5.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

nª ¸ É nµ ¤µÄ ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, єѧ.ѕ. 2013

148.7

29.1

-48.4

-13.5

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

µ¦n °° ¨ ¨ Ä nª 7 Á º° Â¦ Ã ¥¤ ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 Total export Metal Forestry Automotive Chemicals Optical instru Other manufacturing PetroͲchemical Furniture Jewellery Electrical Apparels Machinery Toiletries Electronics Agriculture Aircrafts Agro products Footware Petroleum Photo instru Mining Fishery Other export ReͲexports

-3.7 17.7 8.1 6.8 6.5 2.8 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1 -3.1 -6.3 -6.6 -7.1 -7.4 -7.7 -13.9 -18.2 -19.6 -30.3 -52.0 -94.5

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¤¸ µ¦n °° °ºÉ ÇÁ È ´ª nª ®¨´ ´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Automotive Metal Chemicals PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Forestry Optical instru Jewellery Furniture ReͲexports Apparels Electrical Footware Toiletries Aircrafts Machinery Mining Photo instru Fishery Agriculture Petroleum Electronics Agro products Other export

-3.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä nª 7 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¨µ n °° ®¨

´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч 100% = Middle East EU Japan NAFTA Rest of the world

᪛ 7.1 (Trilli

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

5.4

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

13.2

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

11.3

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

12.2

11.7

11.1

11.3

18.4

18.1

17.4

18.1

21.0

12.7 16.6

East Asia exͲJapan

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

22.5

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¨´ ¤¸ ´ ®µ » ¨µ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ °µÁ ¸¥

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ion) 0.3%

-3.3%

-7.8%

-4.2%

Rest of the world

-4.3%

NAFTA

-4.9%

-7.3%

ASEAN

East Asia ex Japan

Middle East

Japan 29

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ÎµÁ oµ¨ ¨ Ä nª 7 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¨· ¸¨É ¨ ´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

-0.4

Total import

Others

3.0

Consumer goods

Capital goods

-2.8

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

-3.4

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-3.8

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ µ¦ ÎµÁ oµª´ » · µ¦

8.7

´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

-0.4

Total import

2.1

Others

0.2

Consumer goods

Capital goods

-0.7

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

-0.7

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel -1.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 20% Ä 7 Á µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¦³¥³¥µª ªnµ 2 Á nµ

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

8.4%

15.9 13.8 10.8

11.7

14.5

14.1

11.5

10.0

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism

º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2013 ¹É º°ªnµ¼ ªnµ°´ ¦µ

³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 25.0

22.3 19.2

Y 11FY 12FY

20.0

2012

15.0

10.0

5.0

2013

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª ¸ · Á È ªnµ ´Ê ®¤ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 5.19a

Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© Ã m ´£¬³ ´ ¶ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Rest of world

14.3

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.9

Americas

6.2

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.2

Europe

27.3

East Asia

28.7

27.9

52.1

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.1

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

µ ¦¹ É ® ¹ É ° µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ´ n° Á ¸É¥ª ´¥q 5.19b

10 ¯³ ³ ¯ ¥²Â ª ·Ê£ · Ï´ © ´¥Â n´£´ m¯ Â ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ £´ ·Ê¬º Â£¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ m© Â ·¤© ³ ¯ d ·ÊÃ§n© нњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013, ёѤьзіѤкѸ

1,292.2

China 263.4

Russia Malaysia Japan

% ¯ ´¥Â ¶Ê£ ³Ë £

212.7 121.9

51% 10% 8% 5%

Indonesia

95.4

Singapore

85.6

Hong Kong

84.1

Korea

81.7

Taiwan

72.1

Vietnam

62.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

Å¤n¤¸ µ¦Á ¨¸¥É Â ¨ °´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥Ä Á º°

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Ä¤ ´¤ . 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Aug-13

Sep-12

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max Min Sep-12 Note: (*) Bangkok Inter Bank Offer Rate

Source: Bank of Thailand

2.50%

0.00% Aug-13

. .

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ BIBOR*

Sep-12

3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Aug-13

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Sep-12

0.00% Aug-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥¦´ µ¨¨ ¨ Á º° 9% Ä nª 7 Á Á ¸¥ª ´ ¸ n° ´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

2013 500

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2013 Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ nª

2012

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

ªµ¤Á ºÉ°¤´ » É ¦ · Â¥n¨ Ã ¥ ´Ê £µ »¦ · Â ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100

Better

51.2

54.4

53.9 48.8

49.9

48.3

Worse

0 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand

Â¨³°» µ® ¦¦¤¤° Ä Â n¦µo ¥¤µ ¹Ê ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£** 200

Better

100

95.5

93.5

92.9

94.3

93.1

91.9

Worse

0 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ªµ¤Á ºÉ°¤´ ¼ É o ¦·Ã£ Ä £µ¡¦ª¤Â¥n¨ µ µ¦¤° Ã¨ Ä Â n¦µo ¥Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ Overall

100

Better

50 Worse

Worse

0 Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

Mar-1

(*) єѨзѥҕ ѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 0-100 щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѝ ҕ кѬ дњҕѥ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣчѨеь ѩѸ щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵѳєҕѯю щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣѰ

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Á º° n° Â¨³°¥¼n ÎµÉ ªnµ 50 ³ o° ¹

On job

On future income

100

Better 50 Worse

0 3

May-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

ьўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэчѨ јѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјк ўіѪѠъікшѤњѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэюѥьдјѥк ѰѕҕјкўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэѳєҕч Ѩ

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

Îµ ´ µ Á«¦¬ · µ¦ ¨´ Â¨³£µ¡´ ° Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Ä ¸ ¸Ê ¨ ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00

5.50

FPO BOT

5.00

NESDB 4.50 The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom

²r nµ ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · Ã

ist

´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 6.00

5.50

5.00

BOT

4.50

The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Forecast as of, month ending 40

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2013 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ ¦³Á «nª Ä® nÄ °µÁ ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 31/8/2013 China Philippines Pakistan Indonesia India Vietnam Malaysia Thailand South Korea Hong Kong Australia Taiwan Singapore Russia Brazil Japan US Euro Area -0.6

Source: The Economist

7.5 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.5 4.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7

¦ rªnµ ³Á · Ã ¼ ¹ 4.4% ¹É ¥´ ÎµÉ ªnµ ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 31/8/2013 7.3 6.0 3.5 5.9 6.1 5.5 5.0 4.7 3.4 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.3 2.6 1.7 2.7 0.8 41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ ¨ Á È 0.55% Ä Á º° ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч

2.16

2.07 1.83 1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

° ¤·.¥.

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1.20

1.00

0.80

2012 0.60

2013

0.40

0.68

0.66

11-Avg 12-Avg

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ ÎµÉ ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Jun Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ Jun South Korea Ͳ Jul Hong Kong Ͳ Jul Vietnam Ͳ 2011 Japan Ͳ Jun

0.6 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9

China Ͳ Q2

4.1

Taiwan Ͳ Jul

4.2

Russia Ͳ Jul Brazil Ͳ Jul Australia Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Pakistan Ͳ 2011 US Ͳ Jul Philippines Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist

°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ

5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 7.4 7.5 9.9 12.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

Â ªÃ o¤ µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÃ ¥¦ª¤ ¸

´¥q 2.01 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê* 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

¹Ê Â nÄ ¤. ¨´ Â¥n¨

North East North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.02 – ¬m© Ã m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom 20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê Â n ÈÅ¤n¤µ ´

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « Îµ¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.03 – ©´£Â§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nÅ Ä§ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥ Â ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨ÎÊµ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´

20%, d 2011 ¥¹¯§m´¬º

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

Î µ ª Â¨³´ nª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ´¥q 2.04a

´¥q 2.04b

Â¬n ©´£¤´

Ï´ © »n¤´

эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь

ј Җѥьзь

3,500

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

1,000 5 500

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legend color:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB

¨ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ Ä ¤. ´¥q 2.04c

¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

North East

South

'03

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.05 – ©´£¤´ Å Ä§

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

Lao PDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

South Africa China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

Sri Lanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

¤¸ ´ nª ¥µ ¼

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

Slovak Republic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ °· Á ¸¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµµ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)

Source: The World Bank

1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110

Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥ Â n¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ ( ) = World rank 186,950 36,770

France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Â n µo Ä o° ´ ¦µÂ¨ Á ¨¸¥É Â ªµ¤Á nµÁ parity) Å ¥ ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ ¸ ´¥q 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© Ï´ © Ã PPP 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼ Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)

Source: The World Bank

64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550

¸¥¤ ´ ° °Îµ µ ºÊ ° (Purchasing power ѪѸ , чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ ѥьѥлоѠ

8,710

84,670

( ) = World rank Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¦Èª ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥¦ª¤ Îµ¦ª ¨nµ» Ä ¸ 2011 ´¥q 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

2009

23,236

2011

´¥q 2.10b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

17,403

2011

¤ ´Ê ¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê ¸¨É ¨ Ä µ¦ ´¥q 2.10c – ·Ë¬¶ Â §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

´¥q 2.10d – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ·ËÂ §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

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эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Å Â¨³Á · Á¢o °¡ºÊ µ ¨ ¨ °¥nµ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.00%

2.50%

2.00%

Head line 1.50%

1.00%

Core* 0.50%

0.00% Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

µ n°Á º°É Ä Á º° . . ´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2013 Meat

8.2

Tobacco & alcohol

5.4

Eggs & milk

5.3

Energy

3.0

Prepared food at home

1.3

Rice

1.3

Food away from home

1.3

Housing & furnishing

1.1

Veg & fruit

1.0

Transport & Commu

1.0

Apparel and footware

0.8

Medical care

0.7

Seasoning

0.5

Non alcoholic beverage

0.5

Recreation & Education

0.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ º°ªnµ n° oµ ÎµÉ Á¤ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê Ä§ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

India Ͳ Jul Indonesia Ͳ Jul Pakistan Ͳ Jul Vietnam Ͳ Aug

Hong Kong Ͳ Jul

6.5

Russia Ͳ Jul

6.3

Brazil Ͳ Jul 2.7

China Ͳ Jul Philippines Ͳ Jul

2.5

Australia Ͳ Q2

2.4

Malaysia Ͳ Jul

2.0

US Ͳ Jul

2.0

Singapore Ͳ Jul

1.9

Euro Area Ͳ Jul

1.6

Thailand Ͳ Aug

1.6 1.4

South Korea Ͳ Jul Japan Ͳ Jun

0.2

Taiwan Ͳ Jul

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç

2013* 9.6

9.6

8.6

7.7

8.3

7.5

6.9

4.1 6.4 6.5 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.5 2.4 1.5 2.5 1.7 0.1 1.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Â Å¤n¤¸Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³ ´ ¦µ µ ° ¼ o ¨·

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Mar-13

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2013 Fishing Livestocks Metal Food Leather & footware NonͲmetallic mineral Transport equip Wood Chemical Forestry Pulp & paper -0.1 Mechinery -0.1 Textile -0.2 Electrical equip -0.3 Petroluem products -0.5 Crop -1.8 Energy -2.2 Rubber & plastic -4.0 Basic metals -5.8 Other manu goods-7.3

25.9 23.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.0

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r ¥µ¥ ´ª n°Á º°É

´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© Â ¶ Ån¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ 100% 95%

91.9%

90.8%

91.4%

91.1%

92.2%

90% 85% Jul-12

Source: Bank of Thailand

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12 Nov-12 D

° Ä ³ ¸É £µ¡ ¨n° ¨ ¨ n° oµ ¤µ

ec-12

M-o-M +1.9% Y-o-Y +12.8%

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q

93.1%

Dec-12

Jan-13

93.9%

95.3% 93.4%

Feb-13 Mar-13

93.5%

93.3%

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤ Å ¦¤µ° ° ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

477

05YE

445

06YE

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

10Y

´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч 8.16%

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85%

3.60

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

07YE

08YE

09YE

10Y

¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³´ nª n°¥° Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤ Ä

´¥Â ¶

270

256

11YE

12YE

257

265

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3

´¥Â ¶

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

12YE

2.18%

2.21%

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 61

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r¨ ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ° ¸

´¥q 3.04 – ¯³ ¥´¬m© Â ¶ ¯ º ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѝь ѧ ъіѤёѕҙѯѝѕ Ѩѷ к ц ѝь Ѹѧ юѨ ѝч

15.8%

16.1%

14.9% 13.4%

13.3%

1 14.0%

13.9%

12.4%

2003

2004

2005

Source: Bank of Thailand

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

¨ Á È 15.7% Ä Á º° ¤·.¥. Â n¥ ´ º°ªnµ

¤q ¬¶Ë Â ¹¯ 16.5%

16.2%

14.8%

16.0%

2013

15.5%

2012

15.0%

14.5%

2011

2012

14.0%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤ Ë ·ÊÃ n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 27/7/2013

3M riskͲfree interest rates

11.8

India Pakistan

9.1

Brazil

9.0

Russia

7.2

Vietnam

7.0 6.2

Indonesia 4.7

China 3.2

Malaysia South Korea

2.7

Australia

2.6 2.2

Thailand

1.4

Philippines Taiwan

0.9

Singapore

0.4

Hong Kong

0.4

0.3

Euro Area

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

൞

· ¨ ¦ª¤ ´Ê ¦³Á «Å ¥ oª¥

Expected 2013 inflation*

Real interest rates

9.6

2.2

7.5

1.6

6.5

2.5

6.4

0.8

6.9

0.1

7.7

-1.5

2.7

2.0

1.8

1.4

1.7

1.0

2.4

0.2

2.5

-0.3

3.1

-1.7

1.3

-0.4 2.4

-2.0 4.1

0.1

-3.7

1.5

-1.2

1.5

-1.3 0.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° . . ´ ¸ SET ¨ ¨ ªnµ 9% nµ ¦° Ä® n°¸ ¦° ® ¹ É ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ 1.3%

2.4%

-2.0%

-2.2%

-7.1%

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

-9.1%

Aug-13

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ ѧѸ ѯчѪѠь, ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ щкѩ ѝь 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0 -120.0 -140.0

D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13

Source: SET, The Economist

µ¤ ¨µ µ¦Å®¨°° ° Á · ¨ » nµ µ · ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2012 ц њѤьъѨѷ 28/8/2013 31.5%

Pakistan (KSE)

28.3%

Japan (Nikkei 225) 19.0%

US (NAScomp)

14.6%

US (S&P 500)

13.1%

US (DJIA) UK (FTSE 100)

9.0%

Australia (All Ord.)

8.9%

France (CAC 40)

8.8% 7.2%

Germany (DAX)

5.0%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

1.6%

Taiwan (TWI) -0.2%

Malaysia (KLSE) China (SSEB, $ terms)

-2.7%

HK (Hang Seng)

-5.0%

Singapore (STI)

-5.1%

S Korea (KOSPI)

-5.6%

Indonesia (JSX)

-6.7%

India (BSE)

-7.4%

China (SSEA)

-7.4%

Thailand (SET)

-8.3%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

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эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

¸ 2012 ¤¸ µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ¼ ¤µ 10 ¸ ¤¸Á¡¸¥ ¸ 2009 Á nµ ´Ê ¸ É µ »¨¤µ ´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ Â£¹¯Ê Â ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч

1.4% 0.3% 0.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6%

-1.7 -2.0%

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ Á È ´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸ Â¨³Ä ¦° ªnµ

-0.3% -0.7%

-1.1%-1.1%

-1.3%

% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY 66

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

»¨ ¦³¤µ Ä nª ® Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2 nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ® oµ º°ªnµ µ ³ µ ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³

1,013

º§ ¥²£´

1,109

-996

-1,109

1,241

-36

-1,277

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-1,629

-1,598

1,484

110 -364

-1,280

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,849

-1

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

2013 ¨´ ¤µÁ È ª Â¨³Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ µ¦ ¨´ ¸ ¹Ê ¤µ

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 100.0 ,751

1,902

2,077

2013 0.0

-100.0

-75

-28 -412 -200.0

2012

-300.0

1,825

-1,930 -400.0 -2,489

-500.0

0FY 11FY 12FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä 7 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2013 »¨ ¦³¤µ Á · »¨ 9 ¡´ ¨oµ µ ´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ Ã§² º§Â ¶ ¬ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110

-36 -45

-1 -144 -174

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY

µ Á · »¨ 6 ¡´ ¨oµ µ nª »¨Á ·

-28 -75

00 -96

-137

-266

-364 -401

-412 -466

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

'13/7mo

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨ Â¥nÁ®¤º° ¦³Á « ¸ É »n ®¦º°®¦´ ²

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan China Thailand Indonesia Brazil Euro Area US

-4

Malaysia -5.1

India

-5.2

Vietnam Japan Pakistan Note: (*) The Economist Poll (**) Actual

Source: The Economist

-8.3 -8.8

¦³¤µ ° Å ¥ º°ªnµÅ¤n ¸ ´ Â n ÈÅ¤nÅ o

È 2.0 0.7 0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -2.8 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -4.0

4.3

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ¼ ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä nª ¸É nµ ´¥q 4.5a – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0

4.0

Public debt from State Enterprises

3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0

1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%

2010

2011

2012

Jun-13

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as

µ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 4.5b – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30% 25%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

5% 0%

2009

ternal debt percent of total

2010

2011

2012

Jun-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å Ä§ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan Source: CIA fact book

219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64

¸É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ ·

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia

56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11

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¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

»¨ µ¦ Îµ¦³Á · · ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä nª 7 Á ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ ( µ¦ oµ + ¦· µ¦Â¨³¦µ¥ ´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ 31.3 24.7

24.1

5.3 1.2 -0.2 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

12FY

13/7mo

º° Â¦ ° ¸ µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ µ »¨ ¥Å o» ·) º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B) 32.6

29.8

17.3

17.0 8.3 -0.5

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/7mo

-5.6

-4.0

12FY

13/7mo

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶

-15.2

08FY

-10.7

-11.1 -19.7

09FY

10FY

11FY

21.3 2.2

2.5

4.3

12FY

13/7mo

-4.7 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q2

Taiwan Ͳ Q2 5.8%

Malaysia Ͳ Q2

5.0%

Vietnam Ͳ 2011

3.5%

South Korea Ͳ Jul

2.9%

Philippines Ͳ Mar

2.5%

Russia Ͳ Q2 China Ͳ Q2

2.1%

Euro Area Ͳ Jun

1.8%

Japan Ͳ Jun

1.0%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q1

0.9% 0.1%

Thailand Ͳ Q2 -1.0%

Pakistan Ͳ Q2 Indonesia Ͳ Q2

-2.4%

US Ͳ Q1

-2.7%

Australia Ͳ Q1

-2.8%

Brazil Ͳ Jul India Ͳ Q1

-3.2% -4.5%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T

ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.0%

49.4

11.7%

52.8 14.2 0.2 59.8 10.2 47.9 211.6 247.1 54.1 5.2 -1.4 -2.3 -28.8 -425.7

hailand and NESDB

-51.1 -77.7 -87.8

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»¨ µ¦ oµÄ ¦¼ Á · µ · ¨ ® ´ ªnµÁ ·¤ n °° ¸¨É ¨ ¤µ ªnµ µ¦ ÎµÁ oµ ´¥q 5.03 – º§ ´¥ n´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

´¥¬m ¯¯ ¬²¬£ ³Ë Ã m n d 8,000 7,000

2012

൞

´¥ Ï´Â n´¬²¬ 8,000 7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

2013

Y-o-Y -3.7%

1,000

201

J F M A M J J A S O N D

J F M A

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjust (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¤Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê Á º°É µ µ¦

¬£ ³Ë Ã m n d

º§ ´¥ n´¬²¬£ ³Ë Ã m n d 0

-100

2012

-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600

Y-o-Y -0.4%

M J J A S O N D

tments and exchange rate conversion and exchange rate conversion

-700 -800

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê ´Ê Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0

04YE

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

40.9%

04YE

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

08YE

Â¨³´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸

09YE

28.8%

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.8%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/1Q

38.8%

40.0%

12YE

13/1Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ nª ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ µ £µ ¦´ Á¡·¤É ¦³¥³¥µª¤µ ¹Ê ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

92%

09YE

13%

87%

10YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

15%

20%

23%

85%

80%

77%

11YE

12YE

13/1Q

¹Ê Â¨³® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «¤¸ ´ nª Á È ® ¸Ê ´¥q 5.11b – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£¥²¤²Â©§´ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Long term Short term

44%

56%

09YE

50%

10YE

45%

46%

44%

55%

54%

56%

11YE

12YE

13/1Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ªµ¤µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ Îµ¦³® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «

418% 370% 340%

330%

299%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

12YE

286%

13/1Q

° Å ¥¥´ Å¤n nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨

8.2% 7.6%

4.8%

4.7%

4.2% 3.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/1Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä

54.4

55.9

2004

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

9.1 6.9

2004

5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

Ѥ р (*) іњєєѬјзҕѥеѠк Net forward position ъѨыѷ юъ.єѨѓѥіѣяѬдёѤьѲьѝр (**) ѲнєѬҖ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¸ ¸Ê Â n¥ ´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

191.7

206.4

205.8

195.3

2011

2012

Jul-13

154.1

2009

13.8

2010

12.6 10.8

2009

2010

рѥ currency forward contracts

2011

10.0

2012

9.2

Jul-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

nµÁ · µ °n° ´ª¨ 1.6% Ä Á º° . . µ µ¦ ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100

114.0

Baht appreciates

112.0

110.0

108.0

106.0

MͲoͲM

Ͳ1.6%

Baht depreciates Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

104.0

102.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

98.0

3.6%

96.0

94.0 Aug-13

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ »¨Á · nµ ÇÄ ¦³ ¦oµÁ ·

´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§ Â §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 31/8/2013 EUR Ͳ 42.7779

8.1

CNY Ͳ 5.3214

5.9

KRW Ͳ 0.029

TWD Ͳ 1.0758

2.2

USD Ͳ 32.2155

2.2

MXN Ͳ 2.4118

2.2

4.3

SGD Ͳ 25.3983

0.4

GBP Ͳ 50.0957

0.4

VND Ͳ 0.0015

0.0

MYR Ͳ 9.882

-3.0

PHP Ͳ 0.7316

-3.1

IDR Ͳ 3.1961 AUD Ͳ 28.9514 INR Ͳ 0.5189

-9.0 -11.2 -13.7

JPY Ͳ 32.9821 -18.3 Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates 80