Monthly Economic Brief January 2014 issue
Executive summary Growth GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a year ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters. On the expenditure side, , Export contributed the most to total real GDP growth. On the production side, Manufacturing is the main drag. Manufacturing production increased slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while Agriculture production recovered impressively. On the expenditure side, Private consumption retreated while Private Investment continued to slow down. FDI increased slightly yearͲtoͲdate. Export tumbled and registered Ͳ3.1% growth in the first 11 months of 2013. The problem occurred in every main export markets, except ASEAN. On the other hand, Import also registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 20% in the period. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate in a downward trend. Government spending so far this year has been tightening compared with the same period last year.
Confidence in private s Businesses, Industries more pessimistic.
December saw anothe down of Thailand’s GD projection is now betw 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for
Employment and wea In October unemploym 0.62%, a very low rate major and emerging ec
Thailand’s per capita in 5,210 in 2012, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is worsened. and Consumers were
er round of revising DP growth. Consensus ween 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for r 2014.
alth distribution ment rate dropped to e compared to other conomies.
ncome was at USD 102nd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability Head line inflation dropped to 1.67% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. Producer Price Index increased 1% from a year ago. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio is still high, at 16.6% in October. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 3Q13. Liquidity in the system improved as loan growth decelerated. Big improvement in budget deficit in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 45% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment in the first 11 months of 2013 is negative due to net service and transfer. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. THB depreciated 1.5% against a basket of key currencies in December.
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
3
GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a ye first two quarters Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent
7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%
CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3% 2.2%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ear ago, a slower pace than the
7.8% 6.5% 5.4%
2.9% 2.7%
5%
0.1%
-2.3%
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
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Manufacturing’s slow down has d the most Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 3Q13 YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
2.67
Hotel&Res
15.10
Financial
11.32
Transport
8.64
Other social
6.00
Education
5.90
Health&Social
5.08
RealEstate
3.33
PublicAdmin
2.84
Trading
2.50
Utilities
1.04
Agriculture Manufacture
0.46 -0.43
Construction
-2.20
Mining
-2.48
Private HH
-2.64
Fishing-7.42 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
dragged the overall GDP growth
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 3Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
2.67
Transport
0.86
Hotel&Res
0.63
Financial
0.56
Trading
0.33
Education
0.16
Other social
0.14
RealEstate
0.14
PublicAdmin
0.08
Health&Social
0.07
Utilities
0.04
Agriculture
0.03
Private HH
0.00
Construction
-0.06
Mining
-0.06
Fishing
-0.07
Manufacture
-0.17
5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Export contributed the most to to
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 3Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
2.7
G
7.4
X
3.8
ͲM
0.7
I
-1.0
C
-1.2
I (capital)
-6.5
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
otal real GDP growth in 3Q13
Q13 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 3Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
2.7
X
2.9
I (Inventory)
1.4
G
0.9
Discrpncy ͲM C
0.1
-0.4
-0.6
I (capital) -1.6
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
7
Manufacturing production increa still behind a year ago
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.3%
194.2 174.8 161.1
182.6 170.0
152.1 138.6 124.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
sed slightly from October but is
Monthly Average 250.0
200.0
2012
177.7 181.6
2013 150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM 0.5% YͲoͲY Ͳ10.7%
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most sectors had their production
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector November 2013, percent Wood products
21.1
Electrical
14.3
Rubber&Plastic
9.1
Metal products
8.0
Apparel
7.5
Paper
3.6
Petroleum
2.3
Textiles
1.7
Mineral
-0.2
Chemical
-1.4
Electronic
-3.3
Leather
-3.5
Basic Mat
-4.7
Furniture
-9.4
Machineries
-10.2
Transport Equip
-12.2
Office automate
-12.3
Food & Bev Vehicles
-14.8 -28.7
Tobacco -36.3 Vehicles
-27.3
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
n dropped in November
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector November 2013, percent 3.3 3.7 12.4 1.9 -5.1 2.5 -8.2 -2.8 1.4 -3.4 -6.7 -10.2 -0.1 -3.5 5.8 1.0 2.7 11.6 -1.6 -2.3 -31.1
9 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capacity utilization rate decrease
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70%
63.1%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jun-13
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
ed slightly in November
3
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector November 2013, percent Precision instru Electrical Vehicles Chemical Petroleum Rubber&Plastic Mineral Transport Equip Paper Machineries Metal products Office automate Electronic Food & Bev Basic Mat Textiles Apparel Tobacco Leather Furniture Wood products
114% 93% 88% 86% 81% 72% 71% 69% 65% 63% 63% 62% 56% 51% 49% 44% 40% 37% 33% 33% 23%
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s MPI dropped the most Philippines and Pakistan enjoyed
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ Oct Pakistan Ͳ Sep China Ͳ Nov Singapore Ͳ Oct Vietnam Ͳ Nov Japan Ͳ Oct US Ͳ Nov South Korea Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Q3 Malaysia Ͳ Oct Brazil Ͳ Oct Taiwan Ͳ Oct Euro Area Ͳ Oct Hong Kong Ͳ Q3
-0.9
Russia Ͳ Nov
-1.0
India Ͳ Oct
-1.8
Indonesia Ͳ Oct Thailand Ͳ Nov Source: The Economist
-3.7 -10.6
t from a year ago, while highest growth
x 25.3 12.7 10.0 8.0 5.7 5.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.2
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Big improvement in Agriculture p
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.1%
105.9
112.8 112.3 109.4 111.2
100.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
production in November
Monthly Average 300.0
122.5
127.3
250.0
200.0
YͲoͲY 5.3%
2013
MͲoͲM 114.7%
150.0
2012 100.0
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
13
Private consumption retreated ag
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.2%
117.8
126.2 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2 127.2
111.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
gain in November
Index* Monthly Average 160.0
147.0
155.0
139.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
2012 150.0
2013
145.0
140.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ1.2%
135.0
YͲoͲY Ͳ2.4%
130.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most consumption expenditures
Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 11 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent NGV (kg.)*
1
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
8.1
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
4.4
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
2.6
LPG (litre)*
2.5
Diesel (litre)
2.0
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
-0.6
Passenger Car (Unit) Motocycle (Unit)
-2.6 -4.6
Commercial Car (Unit) -7.1 Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
still grew so far this year
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Nov vs Oct 2013, percent
10.5
2.7 0.3 0.9 -4.0 0.4 1.4 -4.0 -3.5 -0.1 7.4
15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment continued to d
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.9%
172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8
193.0
183.4 160.8
133.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
decline
Monthly Average 300.0
2012 250.0
2013 242.1 200.0
210.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.6%
YͲoͲY Ͳ7.8%
50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most private investment expendi far this year despite recent slow d Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 11 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
11.
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
10.6
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
Import of Capital Goods -5.8 (2000 prices, Baht)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5.8
1.7
tures had impressive growth so down Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Nov vs Oct 2013, percent
1
1.0
6
-0.6
-3.6
-0.6
1.0
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Cumulative FDI in the first 10 mon the same period last year Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
1 9,460
9,112
8,999
10FY
11FY
8,547
4,853
06FY
07FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
08FY
09FY
nths of 2013 increased 8% from
Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000
10,697
12FY
12,000
2012
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2013
2,000
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOI’s net application for the first from the same period last year
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht
CAGR
21.5%
396 351 297 236
08FY
09FY
10FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
11FY
11 months of 2013 dropped 22%
irect investment*
648
496 387
12FY
2012/11M 2013/11M
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Property indicators have largely g
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 10 months of 2013 vs those of 2012, percent
Condo unit registered
32
Value of land transaction
21.0
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal
0.8
-5.1
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
grown this year
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Oct vs Sep 2013, percent
.1
71.8
-14.3
-32.0
-7.6
20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
21
Export has decreased in the first 1 Agro and Electronics the main dra
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 11 months of 2013 vs that of 2012, percent Total export ReͲexports Forestry Automotive Chemicals Furniture Optical instru Other manufacturing PetroͲchemical Jewellery Apparels Machinery Electrical Toiletries Electronics Metal Agriculture Agro products Petroleum Footware Aircrafts Photo instru Mining Fishery Other export
-3.1
1,106.2 11.4 7.0 5.2 4.4 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.4 -0.3 -2.0 -3.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.2 -5.5 -6.9 -7.1 -10.9 -26.2 -27.0 -48.3
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
11 months, with Other export, ags Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions
2
Contributions to total export growth Total export Automotive Chemicals PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Forestry Optical instru Jewellery Apparels Machinery ReͲexports Furniture Electrical Footware Toiletries Aircrafts Photo instru Metal Mining Petroleum Fishery Agriculture Electronics Agro products Other export
-3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -1.7
22 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from ASEAN, export decrea year Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term 100% =
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.7
Middle East
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
EU
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
10.5
10.7
10.2
11.3
10.3
11.7
11.1
11.3
12.7
12.2
17.4
18.1
18.4
18.1
21.0
21.0
Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
16.6
7.1 (Trilli
East Asia exͲJapan
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
22.5
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased in every regions so far this
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 11 months of 2013 vs 2012
ion) 2.4% ASEAN
-0.1%
-1.7%
NAFTA
-2.1%
Middle East
-2.7%
-7.9%
-10.7%
EU
East Asia ex Japan
Japan
Rest of the world 23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has gained more sh
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 6.0
Ѯ 4.6
Ѯ 5.9
Others
8.0
7.8
10.2
Capital goods
19.3
22.3
20.9
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
44.8
43.0
44.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
20.7
18.6
17.4
Consumer goods
7.1
8.3
7.5
08FY
09FY
10FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
hare this year
n
4
Y
Ѯ 7.0
Ѯ 7.7
Ѯ 7.1
12.4
10.9
12.3
21.3
24.6
23.3
40.0
37.6
36.2
18.9
19.1
20.3
7.5
7.8
8.0
11FY
12FY
13/11MO
(Trillion)
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Import has decreased in the first decrease in intermediate goods
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 11 months of 2013 vs 2012, percent
Total import
-1.4
Others
10.4
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
5.0
Consumer goods
0.8
Capital goods
-5.7
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-5.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
11 months of 2013, driven by the
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
Total import
-1.4
Others
1.1
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
1.0
Consumer goods
0.1
Capital goods
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-1.4
-2.2
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 20% in t
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
8.4%
15.9 13.8 11.7 10.8
14.5
14.1
11.5
10.0
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY
Source: Department of Tourism
the first 11 months of 2013
Monthly cumulative 30.0
22.3 25.0
19.2
Y 11FY 12FY
2013 20.0
2012 15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
China accounted for almost half o arrivals so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world
14.3
15.3
15.6
14.7
13.9
Americas
6.2
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.2
Europe
27.3
East Asia
28.7
27.9
52.1
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.1
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
of the total increase in tourist
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 11 months of 2013 vs 2012, Thousands China
% of total change
1,859.2
46%
Malaysia
362.1
9%
Russia
357.5
9%
Japan
159.9
4%
Indonesia
142.2
4%
Vietnam
136.7
3%
Korea
128.0
3%
Singapore
127.2
3%
Hong Kong
117.1
3%
Taiwan
107.7
3%
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
28
No change in policy rate in Decem
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Jan-13
2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Dec-13
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Jan-13
0.00% Dec-13
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
mber
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Dec-13
Jan-13
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Jan-13
anches
0.00% Dec-13
29 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
9% decrease in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2013 0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in the first 11 months of 2013
2012
J
A
S
O
N
D
30
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
31
Businesses and Industries were m
Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
49.9 50
48.3
47.5
47.5
47.4
46.9
Worse
0 Jun-13
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
more pessimistic in November
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
93.1
91.9
91.3
90.4
92.8
90.3
Worse
0 Jun-13
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumer were more pessimistic
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
May-13
Jul-13
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior mo Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of th Source: Ministry of Commerce
c in November
On job
3
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 Sep-13
onth e prior month he prior month
Nov-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
33 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
34
Another round of revising down o
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50 5.00
FPO The Economist poll
BOT NESDB
4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
of Thailand’s GDP growth
omist
Chart 1.03b – Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50
FPO
BOT The Economist poll
5.00 4.50
NESDB 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13
Forecast as of, month ending 35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are emerging economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Dec 17th 2013 China Philippines Pakistan Indonesia Vietnam India Malaysia Singapore Thailand Hong Kong South Korea Australia Brazil Taiwan Japan US Russia Euro Area -0.4
Source: The Economist
7.7 7.0 6.1 5.6 5.5 4.9 4.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5
e quite low compared to other
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of Dec 17th 2013
7
7.3 6.7 3.9 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.7 2.8 1.0 36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
37
Unemployment rate continued to
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16 2.07 1.83
1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
o decline in October
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
2013 0.80
0.60
0.40
0.68
2012 0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Oct Singapore Ͳ Q3 South Korea Ͳ Nov
0.6 1.8 2.7
Malaysia Ͳ Sep
3.1
Vietnam Ͳ 2012
3.2
Hong Kong Ͳ Nov
3.3
Japan Ͳ Oct
4.0
China Ͳ Q3
4.0
Taiwan Ͳ Oct Brazil Ͳ Oct Russia Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Nov Pakistan Ͳ 2012 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 Philippines Ͳ Q4 US Ͳ Nov India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Oct Source: The Economist
4.2
lowest comparing to other
2 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 7.0 9.9 12.1
39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
40
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
41
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
43
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
44
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India Lao PDR
6
Pakistan
60.2
Nepal
57.3
Cambodia
53.3
Indonesia
46.1
Vietnam
43.4
Philippines
41.5
South Africa
31.3
China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
Egypt, Arab Rep.
15.4
Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7
Brazil
10.8
Iran, Islamic Rep.
8.0
Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 186,950
36,770
France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880 47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th with higher GNI per capita than C
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550
hailand’s rank improved to 89th, China
es
8,710
30
0
( ) = World rank 84,670
Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370 48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
23,236
14,963
2004
2009
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
17,403
12,297
2004
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
49
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
50
Head line inflation dropped while December Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 2.50%
2.00%
Head line
1.50%
1.00%
Core* 0.50%
0.00% Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
e Core increased slightly in
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product December 2013, percent Meat
7.8
Eggs & milk
6.4
Tobacco & alcohol
3.9
Energy
3.0
Food away from home
2.7
Seasoning
2.4
Prepared food at home
1.9
Rice
1.7
Transport & Commu
1.2
Apparel and footware
0.9
Housing & furnishing
0.8
Recreation & Education
0.6
Medical care
0.5
Non alcoholic beverage
0.5
Veg & fruit
-0.1
51 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Nov
1
Pakistan Ͳ Nov
10
Indonesia Ͳ Nov
8.4
Russia Ͳ Nov
6.5
Vietnam Ͳ Nov
5.8
Brazil Ͳ Nov
5.8
Hong Kong Ͳ Oct
4.3
Philippines Ͳ Nov
3.3
China Ͳ Nov
3.0
Malaysia Ͳ Oct
2.8
Australia Ͳ Q3
2.2
Singapore Ͳ Oct
2.0
Thailand Ͳ Dec
1.7
US Ͳ Nov
1.2
Japan Ͳ Oct
1.1
Euro Area Ͳ Nov
0.9
South Korea Ͳ Nov
0.9
Taiwan Ͳ Nov Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
0.7
he low side compared to other
2013*
11.2
9.8
0.9
7.5 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.2 4.3 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.9
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Higher inflation at producer level low Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5% Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
, but the current level is still very
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product December 2013, percent Fishing Livestocks Petroluem products Energy Metal Leather & footware Chemical NonͲmetallic mineral Food Transport equip Wood Textile Pulp & paper Forestry Forestry Electrical equip -0.3 Basic metals -0.6 Crop -2.3 Rubber & plastic -4.8 Other manu goods -11.1
34.3 13.2 12.1 7.1 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
54
Bank’s loan continued its strong g slightly Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Ap
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100%
95%
92.2%
93.1%
93.1%
93.9%
93.4%
9
Feb-13 Mar-13
A
90%
85% Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
Source: Bank of Thailand
growth while liquidity decreased
M-o-M +0.4% Y-o-Y +10.7%
pr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
95.3%
94.9%
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
95.7%
95.5%
95.0%
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
it* ratio
93.5%
93.3%
55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased slightly in 3Q percent of total loan
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
477
445
458
401
380
317
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
10Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans 8.16%
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85%
3.60
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
07YE
08YE
09YE
10Y
Q13 in both absolute value and as
ss NPLs Outstanding
7
YE
270
256
11YE
12YE
257
265
268
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
0%
YE
2.75%
11YE
2.26%
12YE
2.18%
2.21%
2.23%
2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio increased to 1
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 14.0%
13.9%
13.4%
1
13.3% 12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
16.6% in October
nks* Month End 17.0%
16.2% 16.5%
14.8%
2013 16.0%
15.5%
2012
15.0%
14.5%
14.0%
13.5% 2011
anches
2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s real interest rate is slig Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of November 30th 2013
3M riskͲfree interest rates Pakistan
10.1
Brazil
10.0
India
8.7
Indonesia
7.7
Russia
7.2
Vietnam
6.8
China
5.4
Malaysia
3.1
South Korea
2.7
Australia
2.6
Thailand Taiwan
2.0 0.9
Philippines
0.5
Hong Kong
0.4
Singapore
0.3
Euro Area
0.3
US
0.2
Japan
0.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
ghtly negative
=
Expected 2013 inflation*
Real interest rates
7.5
2.6
6.2
3.8 9.8
-1.1
7.1
0.6
6.7
0.5
6.6
0.2
2.7
2.7
2.0
1.1
1.1
1.6 2.3
0.3
2.2
-0.2
0.9
0.0 3.0
-2.5 4.3
2.4
0.3
-3.9 -2.1
1.4
-1.1
1.5
-1.3 -0.2
58
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
SET dropped another 5% in Decem Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end 6.9%
4.3%
-2.0% -5.0%
-5.3%
-9.1%
Jul-13
Aug-13
E Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 -150.0 -200.0 -250.0 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13
J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
mber amid foreign selling Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of December 17th 2013 Pakistan (KSE)
50.0%
Japan (Nikkei 225)
47.0%
US (NAScomp)
33.3%
US (S&P 500)
24.9%
US (DJIA)
21.1%
Germany (DAX)
19.3%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
12.8%
France (CAC 40)
11.7%
UK (FTSE 100)
10.0%
Malaysia (KLSE)
9.6%
Australia (All Ord.)
9.5%
Taiwan (TWI)
8.5%
India (BSE)
6.1%
HK (Hang Seng)
1.8%
China (SSEB, $ terms)
-0.8%
S Korea (KOSPI)
-1.6%
Singapore (STI)
-3.1%
Indonesia (JSX)
-3.1%
Thailand (SET)
-3.9%
China (SSEA)
-5.2%
59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
60
Huge government budget deficit r slightly better than in 2009
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6%
-1.7 -2.0%
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
relative to GDP in 2012, only
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7% -1.1%-1.1%
-1.3%
% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY 61
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Budget balance during the first 11 substantially from the same perio Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
Revenue 1,013
1
1,109
16
0
Budget balance
1,241
-36
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
1,484
110 -364
-996
-1,109 -1,277
-1,280 -1,629
Expenditure
-1,598 -1,849
-1
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
1 months of 2013 has improved od last year
Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 100.0 2,077 ,751
1,902
2013 0.0
-100.0
-75
-28 -412 -200.0
2012 -300.0
1,825
-1,930 -400.0 -2,489
-500.0
0FY 11FY 12FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Smaller deficit for the first 11 mo
Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110 88 16
24 0
8
-36 -45
-1 -144 -174
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
nths of this year
plus)
-28 -75 00 -96
-121 -117
-137
-266
-364 -401
-412 -466
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
'13/11mo
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit in 2013 is GDP
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2013*, percent Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Russia Philippines China Australia Taiwan Brazil Euro Area Thailand Indonesia US Malaysia
-
Vietnam
-4
India Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-5.1 -8.0 -8.2
expected to be around 3% of
ercentage of GDP 1.8 0.7 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.3 -4.1
-4.2 .4
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt so
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%
2010
2011
2012
Sep-13
8%
8%
7%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Ext as
o far in 2013
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2009
ternal debt percent of total
2010
2011
2012
Sep-13
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
66
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production increase Agriculture production recovered i • Private consumption retreated in N • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • Another round of revising down of between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% for 2013 and 4
• In October unemployment rate dro • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 1.67 Producer Price Index increased 1% • Banking system is quite stable. Ban slightly in the third quarter but is st • Big improvement in budget deficit not too worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.5% in Decembe
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag ed slightly from October but is still behind a year ago, while mpressively November while Private Investment continued to slow down , tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending tightened ore pessimistic Thailand’s GDP growth; consensus projection is now 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
opped to 0.62%, a very low rate compared to other countries mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
7% while Core increased slightly to 0.91% in December. from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio is still high. Total system’s NPL increased till low. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. in the first 11 months of 2013. Public debt is increasing but
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. r.
67
Deficit Balance of Payments in th largely to net service income and
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
5.3 1.2
-4.8 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
12FY
13/11mo
e first 11 months of 2013 due transfer Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
on
29.8
17.3
17.0 8.3
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
4.4 13/11mo
Net service income & transfer -5.6
+
-10.7
-11.1
-15.2
-9.7
-19.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/11mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.2
2.5
0.5
12FY
13/11mo
-4.7 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
68
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Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q3 Taiwan Ͳ Q3 Vietnam Ͳ 2012
5.9%
Malaysia Ͳ Q3
5.0%
South Korea Ͳ Oct
4.7%
Philippines Ͳ Jun
2.7%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q2
2.4%
Russia Ͳ Q3
2.4%
Euro Area Ͳ Sep
2.0%
China Ͳ Q3
1.9%
Japan Ͳ Oct
1.0%
Pakistan Ͳ Q3
-0.9%
Thailand Ͳ Q3
-1.1%
US Ͳ Q3
-2.4%
Australia Ͳ Q3
-2.6%
India Ͳ Q3
-3.0%
Brazil Ͳ Oct
-3.6%
Indonesia Ͳ Q3
-3.8%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.9%
49.8
11.8%
56.3 9.1 14.2 68.1 10.1 5.7 40.1 251.1 14.0 41.2 -4.1 -4.1 -398.7 -51.3 -76.9 -82.2 -32.1
69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Worsened trade balance so far in than import Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
ŕľ&#x17E;
Cumulative Export 8,000
Cumulative 8,000
7,000
2012
7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000 2013
1,000
Y-o-Y -3.1%
0
201 1,000 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J F M A
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2013 as export dropped more
=
Import
3
Cumulative Trade balance 0
-100
2012
2012
-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600
Y-o-Y -1.4%
M J J A S O N D
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
-700 -800
J F M A M J J A S O N D
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in a percentage of GDP Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
04YE
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.9%
04YE
37.0%
05YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
38.5%
06YE
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
08YE
bsolute value but decreased as
E
09YE
%
28.8%
E
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.8%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
38.8%
38.3%
12YE
13/3Q
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Structure of external debt does n year Chart 5.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
8%
92%
09YE
13%
15%
20%
20%
87%
85%
80%
80%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
Source: Bank of Thailand
ot change much from end of last
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
56%
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
45%
46%
44%
55%
54%
56%
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340%
330%
312% 280%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
8.2% 7.6%
4.7% 4.2% 3.7%
3.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/3Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
54.4
55.9
2004
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
9.1 6.9
2004
5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly so far this year but
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
191.3
154.1
0
8
2009
2010
Nov-13
er of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
8
2009
the last 12 months
2010
2011
10.0
2012
9.1
Nov-13
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB depreciated slightly against k
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
114.0
Baht appreciates
112.0
110.0
108.0
106.0
MͲoͲM
Ͳ1.5%
104.0
102.0
YͲoͲY
Ͳ0.1%
Baht depreciates Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
100.0
98.0 Dec-13
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
key currencies in December
e
0
0
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Dec 27th 2013 EUR Ͳ 45.3223
10.9
CNY Ͳ 5.4756
9.8
GBP Ͳ 54.2572
9.2
KRW Ͳ 0.0311
8.4
USD Ͳ 32.9494
7.1
0
VND Ͳ 0.0016
6.7
0
MXN Ͳ 2.519
6.2
0
TWD Ͳ 1.0985
3.6
0
SGD Ͳ 26.1167
3.3
MYR Ͳ 10.1137
-0.5
PHP Ͳ 0.7529
-0.7
INR Ͳ 0.5631
-6.1
AUD Ͳ 29.4474 JPY Ͳ 31.5869
-8.2 -11.8
IDR Ͳ 2.8821 -15.2 Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 75
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