131231 thai CTE by Ake Saroj

Charting Thailand’s Economy® www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 23rd issue: มกราคม 2557

อธิบายความเปนไป ของเศรษฐกิจไทย และอาเซียน

• • • • • • •

มองแนวโนมการเติบโตป 57 จีดีพีไตรมาสสามยังโต การผลิตภาคอุตสาหกรรมยังไมฟน การบริโภคกลับหดตัว การลงทุนชะลอตัวตอเนื่อง การสงออกโตติดลบ เงินบาทออนคารวดเร็ว ภาษาไทย

http://www.transparency.org/cpi2013/results

ISSN: 2286‐6132

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Charting Thailand’s Economy® ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

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Charting Thailand’s Economy чѼѥѯьѧьдѥіѱчѕэіѧќѤънѥіҙшѯєзѯдѠіҙлѼѥдѤч

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ѯіѨѕьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥь, ѧ дѤэюѤ ллѤѕјэўјѥѕ ш ҖѠкѕѠєіѤэњҕѥѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ 2556 ъѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥѯянр ч Җѥьѳєҕњѥҕ лѣѯюѶ ьдіѣѰѝнѣјѠшѤњеѠкѯћіќудѧлѱјд зіѤь Ѹ лѣдјѤэєѥёѩкѷ чѨ ѧ дѤэюѤ рўѥдѥіѯєѪѠк Ѱјѣдѥіюіѣъ Җњкэьъ ҖѠкщьь єѥьчҙѲьюіѣѯъћ дѶѯянр Ѫѷ єѤѷьеѠкъѤкѸ яѬ Җэіѧѱѓз ьѤдјкъѫь ѰјѣъѨѝ ѷ ѼѥзѤрзѪѠ окѩѷ ѝкҕ яјдіѣъэшҕѠзњѥєѯнѠ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њ ѕѠчшѤњѯјеьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њокѩѷ щѪѠѳч ҖњҕѥѯюѶ ьзњѥєўњѤкѝѫчъ Җѥѕ еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕнѣјѠшѤњјкъѤьъѨ Cover story ѲьмэѤэьѨѯѸ іѥеѠѯѝьѠєѫєєѠкіѣчѤэѱјдѲьѝѠкѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨѷ Ѥѷ ѷ кзѠіѤюнь ьҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьэъѯіѨѕьдѤэюіѣѯъћѳъѕѳч ҖѠѕҕѥкчѨѲьнњҕ кьѨѸ окѩѷ дѶзѠ Ѫ ѯіѪѠ Ѫѷ њҕѥъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥьлѣѳч ҖіѤэзњѥєіѬ Җѯёѧє Ѱјѣюіѣнѥыѧюѳшѕ ѯнѠ ѷ єѥдеѩь Ѹ ѰјѣєѨ єѫєєѠкъѨѯѷ юѶ ьѝѥдјєѥдеѩь Ѹ ўјѤклѥдѳч ҖѠҕѥьѰј Җњ яєўњѤкњҕѥъҕѥьлѣѳч ҖюіѣѱѕньҙлѥдэіѧдѥіеѠкѯіѥ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьмэѤэўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Corruption Perceptions Index £º££¯ ¥² ³ Ä§ Â¥¹Ê¯ ¯¥³ ³Ê Ä ¤ TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL

CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS µ¦ª´ Á¦ºÉ° °¦´ ´ É ÎµÅ¤ o° Ä o ªµ¤¦¼o ¹ Transparency International t Ë }~w Å w| | }Ç wt}Å¯ z w} ¯ ² y ±¡Å ° ~ t Ë § y Corruption Perceptions Index Å z~ Ì uz 1995 t Ë z vy ²£ t£z §¡v| | t }~w} ¯ ¢ | ²£ t Ë t }~ § y Ås£ ¤ y ~ Ì ~Æ ÅtÅ³ v| t Ë w| ¡ ² £| ~§ ¢ | w yt Ì w Ì v ²¯Ì¢Æ z Å Å y t wy ² y tÅ ¤|Å w} ¯ Å³v ¢ Æ²¯Ìz w| vy y Å t¥ y t£ } ¢ } w| ¢ Æu¡ ¢ Ç ¥² Å ~w ²¯ÌÅs£ ¤«}~ t {£ ~µ ÅÅ| y |¤t£z §¡« ~z Transparency International ~t¡ }Å ²¯Ìy ¯ |¡§¡ ÅÅ | tw £ «}~§ t¯ ¤|¯ ÅÅ ¢ | £| ~ t { Å£¡ ¤u£ ~

¤¯ }«}~u£¡ ~« Corruption Perce

1. African Developme 2. Bertelsmann Foun 3. Bertelsmann Foun 4. Economist Intellige 5. Freedom House N 6. Global Insight Cou 7. IMD World Comp 8. Political and Econo 9. Political Risk Servic 10. Transparency Inte 11. World Bank - Cou 12. World Economic 13. World Justice Pro

INDEX

} ¡¢ £ eptions Index

ent Bank Governance Ratings 2012 dation Sustainable Governance Indicators 2014 dation Transformation Index 2014 ence Unit Country Risk Ratings Nations in Transit 2013 untry Risk Ratings etitiveness Yearbook 2013 omic Risk Consultancy Asian Intelligence 2013 ces International Country Risk Guide ernational Bribe Payers Survey 2011 untry Policy and Institutional Assessment 2012 Forum Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) 2013 oject Rule of Law Index 2013

CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS

y ¯ Corruption Perceptions Index w £| ~ 0 Æ ~ 100 ±y¤ 0 £ ¤Æ ~ w} ¯ }¤ ~ Å u¡ 100 £ ¤Æ ~ w} ¯ }¤ Å£ }v Denmark New Zealand Finland Sweden Norway Singapore Switzerland Netherlands Australia Canada Luxembourg Germany Iceland United Kingdom Barbados Belgium Hong Kong Japan Uruguay United States

91 91 89 89 86 86 85 83 81 81 80 78 78 76 75 75 75 74 73 73

Source: Transparency International

Irela Baham Ch Fran Saint Lu Aust United Arab Emirat Eston Qat Botswa Bhut Cypr Portug Puerto R Saint Vincent and the Grenadin Isra Taiw Brun Pola Spa

INDEX 2013

nd mas hile nce cia tria tes nia tar ana tan rus gal ico nes ael wan nei nd ain

72 71 71 71 71 69 69 68 68 64 63 63 62 62 62 61 61 60 60 59

Cape Verde Dominica Lithuania Slovenia Malta Korea (South) Hungary Seychelles Costa Rica Latvia Rwanda Mauritius Malaysia Turkey Georgia Lesotho Bahrain Croatia Czech Republic Namibia

58 58 57 57 56 55 54 54 53 53 53 52 50 50 49 49 48 48 48 48

CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS IN N

y ¯ Corruption Perceptions Index w £| ~ 0 Æ ~ 100 ±y¤ 0 £ ¤Æ ~ w} ¯ }¤ ~ Å u¡ 100 £ ¤Æ ~ w} ¯ }¤ Å£ }v Oman Slovakia Cuba Ghana Saudi Arabia Jordan Macedonia Montenegro Italy Kuwait Romania Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Sao Tome and Principe Serbia South Africa Bulgaria Senegal Tunisia China

47 47 46 46 46 45 44 44 43 43 43 42 42 42 42 42 41 41 41 40

Greece Swaziland Burkina Faso El Salvador Jamaica Liberia Mongolia Peru Trinidad and Tobago Zambia Malawi Morocco Sri Lanka Algeria Armenia Benin Colombia Djibouti India Philippines

Source: Transparency International

40 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 37 37 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

Suriname Ecuador Moldova Panama Thailand Argentina Bolivia Gabon Mexico Niger Ethiopia Kosovo Tanzania Egypt Indonesia Albania Nepal Vietnam Mauritania Mozambique

31 30 30

NDEX 2013 (cont’d)

v 36

Sierra Leone Timor-Leste Belarus Dominican Republic Guatemala Togo Azerbaijan Comoros Gambia Lebanon Madagascar Mali Nicaragua Pakistan Russia Bangladesh CØte dƲIvoire Guyana Kenya Honduras

30 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 26

Kazakhstan Laos Uganda Cameroon Central African Republic Iran Nigeria Papua New Guinea Ukraine Guinea Kyrgyzstan Paraguay Angola Congo Republic Democratic Republic of the… Tajikistan Burundi Myanmar Zimbabwe Cambodia

26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 21 21 21 20

Eritrea Venezuela Chad Equatorial Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Yemen Syria Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Iraq Libya South Sudan Sudan Afghanistan Korea (North) Somalia

20 20 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 17 16 15 14 11 8 8 8

What we learn

°¦´ ´ É ¥´ Á È ´ ®µ ° ´ Ê Ã¨ ¤¸Á¡¸¥ Å

Source: Transparency International

Å¤n É ¸ ¦³Á « ¸É “³°µ ®¤ ”

Democracy Index

£º££¯ ¥² ³ Ä§ Â¥¹Ê¯ ¥² ³ ©´£Â | ¥² ´ Ä ¤ Economist Intelligence Unit

¶ Æ ¤

DEMOCRACY INDEX ª· ª¸ ´ ¦³ ´ ªµ¤Á È ¦³ µ · Å ¥Ä ¦³Á « nµ Ç The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ° ~t Ë ¢ Å| ¤t}Å¯ y ±¡Å ²£ w Å Å £| ~ t {z ~µ vy y Democracy Index t¥ }²¯Ì|y u¡ t ¤ t ¤ y w| t Ë ¯ vz¤ ² t {z ~µ |±¡Å ~Ì Ì ~ EIU t}~Å³¤} | ² Ì ¤ ~v ª z ² t }~w ¤ «}~ ¯ vz¤u¡ ¤ ~w~ t Ë ÆÅtÆ ¤~Å ² |~Å| ~ uz ¢ £ Å y Democracy Index Ì EIU ²¯Ì¢ | Å} £¡ Å 5 ¢ | ¥ ° ~vy uÅ Å | Å t¡ }Åz ~Ì u¡ u |w y¥£ ¤ ~Å t }~* t¢ Ç ¥«}~ ¯ ¯ Å ~ «}~ ¡ Å ¢ | | ² ~Å t }~ «}~ ¯ ¯ u¡ | ~Å t }~ ° ~uz ¡ ¢ | Å} w u £| ~ 0-10 ° ~| y Å y ¯ ¯ Ì| yÅ| 60 z |u¡ w u tª¡ ¤° ~ Å¡ ¤ Democracy Index ¢ £ uz ¡ t { Ì Å³ w £| ~ 0-10 t¯ Å

y¢ w Democracy In Æ }| Æ t {²y¢} v § }¤ ¢ Å vy uÅ 1.

Å t¡ }Åz ~Ì t Ë } ¢ u

w| ¡}yÇ ¤«}~§ } }

Å ¡}y} ¥¡«}~z t {«}~ ¡

w| ¢ Æ«}~£ |¤~ ±¤ ¤«}~ ÅÅ

~Ì Ì t {z ~µ² ±¡Å Æ w u Democracy Index Democracies ( ¯ vz Democracies ( ¯ vz regimes ( ¯ vz¤w ~ regimes (t§y³ Å )

*Å }~±y¤¢ ¢ Å| ² ¢ ~w z }~ w| uzÅz ~Å ° ~u |w yy ~Å¡ |vy Æ Å v ²¯Ì² |~Å| ~ ² ~ Å t }~ u |w y¥£ ¤ vy Å ¥ | t Ë z |u¢y~«}~ ¯ vz¤¢ ¤²£ t¥ }§¡ ±¤¯ «}~¥¡t }~

ndex ²£ w| ¢ w u¡ Å³ ±y w u Ì

u¡ t Ë

}Åv ²¯Ì¢ t¡ }Åz ~Ì

~¯ z ² Å £

~ ¯Å y t z Å t¡ }Åz ~Ì

Åu ~}}Åt Ë ¢ Å¡ z ° ~vy uÅ Full z¤tz³ ² ) Flawed z¤ z £ ) Hybrid ~² ) u¡ Authoritarian

Full Democracies ( ¯ vz¤tz³ ² ) w u £| ~ 8-10 w } t { t¢ Ç ¥ ~Å t }~«}~ ¯ ¯ vy Å ¤} u¡ Å¡ ¤t Ë | ~Å t }~ ¢ } t¢ Ç ¥u¡ £¡ Å£¡ ¤ z | ¢} Æ |~y ¡ y ¤ z }¢ u¡ ~w ²¯Ì}¤ ~ |Æ ~ Flawed Democracies ( ¯ vz¤ z £ ) w u £| ~ 67.9 w } t { Å | Å t¡ }Åz ~Ì }¢ u¡ t Ë t¢ Ç ¥ ¥ Ì «}~ ¯ ¯ vy Å ¤} uz ¤ ~ £ y w| ± ~²¢«}~ | Å t }~ v ¥ | v Æ ~Å ¢ | | «}~ ¯ ¯ z Hybrid regimes ( ¯ vz¤w ~² ) w u £| ~ 4-5.9 w } t { £ v Åz ² Å t¡ }Åz ~Ì ²£ v t Ë } ¢ u¡ v t Ë | ~Å t }~} } u} w} ¯ ¢ ~ u¡ Å ~w ²¯Ì Ås£ ¤v | Æ ~ ¢ }Æ Å¡ t y u¡ Å | Å ¤ z v t Ë } ¢ Authoritarian regimes (t§y³ Å ) w u £| ~ 0-4 w } t { w| uzÅz ~ ~w| w y ~Å t }~u v £ }Æ ÅÅy t} v| Å t¡ }Åz ~Ì (£ Å ) Å³v t Ë } ¢ u¡ t Ë ¢ }t Ë uw t¥ ¤~Å }Åt¢ ¤~«}~ Å t°Ë t°} w| t£³ z ~Å « Å Å | Å ¤ z v t Ë } ¢

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2012 ( ¸ ¨ Full democracies Norway Sweden Iceland Denmark New Zealand Australia Switzerland Canada Finland Netherlands Luxembourg Austria Ireland Germany Malta United Kingdom Czech Republic Uruguay Mauritius South Korea USA Costa Rica Japan Belgium Spain

Source: EIU

9.93 9.73 9.65 9.52 9.26 9.22 9.09 9.08 9.06 8.99 8.88 8.62 8.56 8.34 8.28 8.21 8.19 8.17 8.17 8.13 8.11 8.10 8.08 8.05 8.02

Cape Verd Portug Fran Sloven Botswa South Afri Ita Gree Eston Taiw Ch Isra Ind Jamai Slovak Cypr Lithuan Timor-Les Polan Bra Panam Latv Trinidad and Tobag Hunga Croa Mexi Argenti

¨nµ» )

de gal nce nia na ica aly ece nia an hile ael dia ica kia rus nia ste nd azil ma via go ary tia co na

Flawed democracies 7.92 7.92 7.88 7.88 7.85 7.79 7.74 7.65 7.61 7.57 7.54 7.53 7.52 7.39 7.35 7.29 7.24 7.16 7.12 7.12 7.08 7.05 6.99 6.96 6.93 6.90 6.84

Indonesia Bulgaria Lesotho Suriname Colombia Thailand Romania Dominican Republic El Salvador Peru Hong Kong Malaysia Mongolia Serbia Moldova Papua New Guinea Philippines Zambia Paraguay Namibia Macedonia Senegal Malawi Montenegro Guyana Ghana Benin

6.76 6.72 6.66 6.65 6.63 6.55 6.54 6.49 6.47 6.47 6.42 6.41 6.35 6.33 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.26 6.26 6.24 6.16 6.09 6.08 6.05 6.05 6.02 6.00

DEMOCRACY INDEX 2012 ( ¸ ¨ Hybrid regimes Ukraine

5.91

Lebanon

5.05

Guatemala

5.88

Cambodia

4.96

Singapore

5.88

Liberia

4.95

Tanzania

5.88

Mozambique

4.88

Bangladesh

5.86

Palestine

4.80

Bolivia

5.84

Kenya

4.71

Honduras

5.84

Sierra Leone

4.71

Ecuador

5.78

Kyrgyz Republic

4.69

Turkey

5.76

Bhutan

4.65

Sri Lanka

5.75

Pakistan

4.57

Tunisia

5.67

Egypt

4.56

Albania

5.67

Mauritania

4.17

Nicaragua

5.56

Nepal

4.16

Georgia

5.53

Niger

4.16

Uganda

5.16

Iraq

4.10

Libya

5.15

Armenia

4.09

Venezuela

5.15

Morocco

4.07

Mali

5.12

Haiti

3.96

Bosnia and Hercegovina

5.11

Source: EIU

¨nµ» ) Authoritarian regimes Madagascar Algeria Kuwait Nigeria Jordan Russia Ethiopia Fiji Burundi Gabon Burkina Faso Cuba Comoros Togo Cameroon Rwanda Angola Gambia Oman CØte d’Ivoire Swaziland Qatar Azerbaijan Yemen Belarus China

3.93 3.83 3.78 3.77 3.76 3.74 3.72 3.67 3.60 3.56 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.45 3.44 3.36 3.35 3.31 3.26 3.25 3.20 3.18 3.15 3.12 3.04 3.00

Kazakhstan Vietnam Congo (Brazzaville) Guinea Djibouti Zimbabwe United Arab Emirates Bahrain Tajikistan Afghanistan Eritrea Sudan Myanmar Laos Central African Republic Iran Democratic Republic of Congo Equatorial Guinea Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Saudi Arabia Syria Chad Guinea-Bissau North Korea

2.95 2.89 2.89 2.79 2.74 2.67 2.58 2.53 2.51 2.48 2.40 2.38 2.35 2.32 1.99 1.98 1.92 1.83 1.72 1.72 1.71 1.63 1.62 1.43 1.08

What we learn

µ¦¦oµ ¦³ µ · Å ¥ ¸ÉÂ o ¦· ¥´ ¤¸ ´ ®µ ¤¸Á Authoritarian regimes

30.5%

Hybrid regimes

22.2%

Flawed democracies

32.3%

37.2%

Full democracies

15.0%

11.3%

By country

By population

Source: EIU

37.1%

14.4%

Á¡¸¥ Å¤n É ¸ ¦³Á « ¸É¤¸ ¦³ µ · Å ¥Á È¤Ä

•

t¥ ¤~ 25 t {² ±¡Å £ } 15% «}~ 167 t { Å ¢ | t Ì ¯ vz¤tz³ ² t { ¯ vz¤ ¢ u¡ | Å }¤ ² Å¡ t {z | zÅ t{ Å ¥ u¡ | }¤ ~v Å³y tÅ } w ~£ ~«}~ ¯ Å ±¡Å }¤ ² t { Å Åw }~u ¯ vz¤ u ¤ ~v ¢ t Ë £ |~w } ¯ Å Å| 1 ² 3 «}~±¡Å ¤ ~w~ zÅ}¤ Ç ¤²z Å Åw }~u t§y³ Å

What we learn

¥·É ¦oµ ¦³ µ · Å ¥Ä®o¤ ¼¦ r °¦´ ´ É ¥·É 100

Adj R² = 0.91 N = 167

90 80

Corruption Perceptions Index

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0

Democracy Index Source: Transparency International, EIU; CTE analysis

o°¥¨ ÅÅ | tw £ w| ¢ ¥ £| ~ Corruption Perceptions Index Å Democracy Index ±y¤²¯Ì §¡w u ¡ ¢ y² 167 t { Ì ¥ w| tÅ ¤|±¤~ Å }¤ ~¢ ~ (w Adjusted R square ¢ ~Æ ~ 0.91) £| ~w| t Ë ¯ vz¤Å £ w} ¯ w| ¢ ¥ Ìt Ë w| ¢ ¥ t¯ ~ |Å° ~ £ ¤w| | t {¤ ~ Democracy Index ¢ ~ £ }w| t Ë ¯ vz¤¢ ~ ¤ ~vy w u Corruption Perceptions Index ¢ ~y |¤ ° ~ £ ¤w| | £ w} ¯ }¤ y ~ Ì ¢ £ t {²yÅ³z }¤ ÅuÅ £ w} ¯ ²£ ¡y¡~ £ ~ t Ë v vy Å ¢ y w } Å ¢ ~t¢ } ¯ vz¤²£ t Ë ¯ vz¤ tz³ ² ¢ £ t {v ¤t}~z} ÌÆ Å y}¤ ² Å¡ Flawed Democracies u¡ Å ¡ ~ty ~ Æ ~ ~ u¤Å Å |£ v ¢ Full Democracies ( ¯ vz¤tz³ ² ) £ }¡ £¡ ~Å¡ v ¢ Hybrid ( ¯ vz¤w ~² ) £ } Authoritarian regimes (t§y³ Å ) t Åw z }~ make informed decision w 7

บทสรุ ปผู ้บริหาร การเติบโต

ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.7% ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥі ѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰідеѠкюѨ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ ҖьдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ь ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠк ѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьё.ѕ.яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієюіѤэшѤњѯёѧє ѷ лѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь ѲьецѣъѨя ѷ јяјѧшѓѥзѯдќшіђѪѸ ьшѤњ ѲьѐѤѷ к іѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньўчшѤњ дѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠдньнѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥк Ѥ ѯль дѥіјкъѫьѱчѕшіклѥдшюъ.дѶѯнь ҕ ѯчѨѕњдѤь ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙ нч ѕѤкзкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨ Ѥ рѥцюѤ рўѥнч Ѥ ѯльѱчѕѲь 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѝкҕ ѠѠдѳч Җ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѯіѧє ѷ ѝкҕ ѝр јчјк ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥдѶѯіѧє ѷ шѧчјэлѥддѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥњѤшщѫчэ ѧ ъѨј ѷ чјк ч Җѥь ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖѝѬкщѩк 20% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ьѰє ҖњҕѥѲьѯчѪѠь ё.ѕ.ѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшлѣнѣјѠшѤњјк єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь Җѥьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѯь Җьдіѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѱчѕѠѤшіѥ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк ч ҖѥььѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкѯіѧє ѷ єѨдѥіѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җ чѠдѯэѨѕ Ѫѷ єѤѷьеѠкѓѥзыѫідѧлѰѕҕјк ѲьецѣъѨѓ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ зњѥєѯнѠ ѷ ѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣ яѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѱјдѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ ўјѥѕѐҕ ѥѕюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлъѤкѸ ѲьюѨ ьѰ ѨѸ јѣюѨ ўь Җѥјк ѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з. ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк іѣўњҕѥк 2.8-3.7% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.4-5.1% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

การจ้างงานและการกระจายรายได้

ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.62% ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯеш ѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 102 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч ҖєѥддњҕѥзьѠѧьѯчѨѕ ѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥдѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч ҖѱчѕіњєчѨеь ъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲь Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ Җь дъє. лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥ юјѠчўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

เสถียรภาพทางเศรษฐกิจ

ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёъѥкіѥзѥщѪѠњҕѥчѨєѥдѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.67% ѝњҕ ьѯкѧь ѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѯюѶ ь 0.91% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ шѼѥѷ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠшѼѥѷ єѥдѲьіѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥічѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕѝч ѷ еѩь Ѹ Ѳь Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѥєѰшҕѕѤкѠѕѬш ҕ Ѽѥѷ ѯчѪѠьш.з. ўьѨъ ѧ ѯнѠ Ѫѷ ъѨѯѷ іҕкеѩь ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкшѩкшѤњеѩь Ѹ лѥддѥіеѕѥѕшѤњеѠкѝь Ѹ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕѱчѕчѫјкэюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчјкѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥддѥіеѥччѫјэіѧдѥіѰјѣѯкѧьѱѠь ўьѨш Ѹ юъ. ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ зҕѥѯкѧьэѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫјѯкѧь шҕѥкѵѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.7% Ѳьѳ еѠкюѨ • іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ • ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьё.ѕ. яјяјѧшѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠдньў • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ ѯэѧдлҕѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ • ѓѥзыѫідѧл Ѡѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщѩкяѬ Җэіѧѱѓ • ўјѥѕѐҕ ѥѕюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯ юіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 2.8-3.7

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.62% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.67% ѝњҕ ьѯ њҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠшѼѥѷ єѥдѲьіѣ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥічѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕѝ іѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѥєѰшҕѕѤкѠѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѝѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ зҕѥѯкѧьэ

ѝѥіэѤр ўь Җѥ

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ єѕѤкзкюіѤэшѤњјчјкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ к ѲьецѣъѨя ѷ јяјѧшѓѥзѯдќшіђѪѸ ьшѤњ Ѥ ѯль чшѤњ ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕѠѤшіѥчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кеѥјк іѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢѯіѧє ѷ єѨдѥі

19 25 33 40

ѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ шѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлъѤкѸ ѲьюѨ ьѰ ѨѸ јѣюѨ ўь ҖѥјкѠѨдзіѤкѸ ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.Ѱјѣ 7% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.4-5.1% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

43 46

ьѯчѪѠьш.з.ѰјѣѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѯюѶ ь 0.91% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠ ѣчѤэяѬ Җяјѧш Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѯёѧє ѝч ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѲьѯчѪѠьш.з. ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧч ѧ ѯнѠ Ѫѷ ъѨѯѷ іҕкеѩь ѕѬш ҕ Ѽѥѷ ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкшѩкшѤњеѩь Ѹ лѥддѥіеѕѥѕшѤњеѠкѝь Ѹ эюіѣєѥцеѥччѫјјчјкєѥдѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѸ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

66 72

Á«¦¬ · Å ¥Á · Ã Á¡¸¥ 2.7% Ä Å ¦¤ ° Å ¦¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 1.05 – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · ·Å ¯ · % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%

CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3% 2.2%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

µµ¤ ° ¸ ¹É ÎµÉ ªnµ°´ ¦µ µ¦Á · Ã Ä

7.8% 6.5% 5.4%

2.9% 2.7%

0.1%

-2.3%

08 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ³¨° ´ª ° £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ Á È ¸É µ¤ ÎµÉ

´¥q 1.06a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ´¥ §¶ 3Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ GDP

2.67

Hotel&Res

15.10

Financial

11.32

Transport

8.64

Other social

6.00

Education

5.90

Health&Social

5.08

RealEstate

3.33

PublicAdmin

2.84

Trading

2.50

Utilities

1.04

Agriculture

0.46

Manufacture

-0.43

Construction

-2.20

Mining

-2.48

Private HH

-2.64

Fishing-7.42

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

nª Îµ ´ ¸ É ÎµÄ®o µ¦Á · Ã Ä Å ¦¤µ

´¥q 1.06b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 3Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ GDP

2.67

Transport

0.86

Hotel&Res

0.63

Financial

0.56

Trading

0.33

Education

0.16

Other social

0.14

RealEstate

0.14

PublicAdmin

0.08

Health&Social

0.07

Utilities

0.04

Agriculture

0.03

Private HH

0.00

Construction

-0.06

Mining

-0.06

Fishing

-0.07

Manufacture

-0.17

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥®¨´ ¸É ¦³ » o µ¦Á · Ã ° ¸ ¸¡Ä¸ ´¥q 1.08a – ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · n´ ¥´¤ m´¤ 3Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

GDP

2.7

7.4

3.8

ͲM

0.7

-1.0

-1.2

I (capital)

-6.5

Note: (*) C = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь, I = дѥіјкъѫь ѰэҕкѯюѶ ь I (capital) = дѥіѝѣѝєъѫь Ѱјѣ I (inve ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕѳч ҖлѥддѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ G = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзіѤу, X = дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѝь ѷ њ

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

Ä Å ¦¤µ° ° ¸ ¸Ê ¤µ µ µ¦n °° ´¥q 1.08b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · 3Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

GDP

2.7

2.9

I (Inventory)

1.4

0.9

Discrpncy ͲM C

0.1

-0.4

-0.6

I (capital) -1.6

ѧ з ҖѥзкѯўјѪѠ entory) = дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкеѠкѝь ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѳюѯъѨѕ њ), M = дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѝь ѷ њшюъ.)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

¨ ¨· £µ °» µ® ¦¦¤¥´ ¦´ ´ª¨ ¨ Á º° n° ® oµ ´¥q 1.11 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

4.3%

194.2 174.8 161.1

182.6 170.0

152.1 138.6 124.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

¨ µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸ÉÂ¨oªÂ n¼ ªnµ

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 250.0

200.0

2012

177.7 181.6

2013 150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM 0.5% YͲoͲY Ͳ10.7%

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° ¡.¥. °» µ® ¦¦¤nª Ä® n ¨ ¨· ´¥q 1.12a – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ё.ѕ. 2013 Wood products

21.1

Electrical

14.3

Rubber&Plastic

9.1

Metal products

8.0

Apparel

7.5

Paper

3.6

Petroleum

2.3

Textiles

1.7

Mineral

-0.2

Chemical

-1.4

Electronic

-3.3

Leather

-3.5

Basic Mat

-4.7

Furniture

-9.4

Machineries

-10.2

Transport Equip

-12.2

Office automate

-12.3

Food & Bev Vehicles

-14.8 -28.7

Tobacco -36.3 Vehicles

-27.3

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis

¨ ¨ µ Á º° n° ´¥q 1.12b – ³ · § §¶ ¥´¤¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ё.ѕ. 2013 3.3 3.7 12.4 1.9 -5.1 2.5 -8.2 -2.8 1.4 -3.4 -6.7 -10.2 -0.1 -3.5 5.8 1.0 2.7 11.6 -1.6 -2.3 -31.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦Ä o µÎ ¨´ µ¦ ¨· ¦ ´ªÄ Á º° ¡ ´¥q 1.13a – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ Ä ¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч 100% 90% 80% 70%

63.1%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

¡.¥.

´¥q 1.13b – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥Å n ´Ï §³ ´¥ §¶ ¥´¤¯º ± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, ё.ѕ. 2013 Precision instru Electrical Vehicles Chemical Petroleum Rubber&Plastic Mineral Transport Equip Paper Machineries Metal products Office automate Electronic Food & Bev Basic Mat Textiles Apparel Tobacco Leather Furniture Wood products

114% 93% 88% 86% 81% 72% 71% 69% 65% 63% 63% 62% 56% 51% 49% 44% 40% 37% 33% 33% 23%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ ¥µ¥ ´ª ° ¨ ¨· °» µ® ¦¦¤ Îµ ´ ° Ã¨ ´¥q 1.14 – ³ · § §¶ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч Philippines Ͳ Oct Pakistan Ͳ Sep China Ͳ Nov Singapore Ͳ Oct Vietnam Ͳ Nov Japan Ͳ Oct US Ͳ Nov South Korea Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Q3 Malaysia Ͳ Oct Brazil Ͳ Oct Taiwan Ͳ Oct Euro Area Ͳ Oct Hong Kong Ͳ Q3

-0.9

Russia Ͳ Nov

-1.0

India Ͳ Oct

-1.8

Indonesia Ͳ Oct Thailand Ͳ Nov Source: The Economist

-3.7 -10.6

¤ ° Å ¥ ÎµÉ ¸É » Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ Á«¦¬ ·

25.3 12.7 10.0 8.0 5.7 5.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ¨ ¨· £µ Á ¬ ¦ ¦´ ´ªÁ¡

´¥q 1.10 – ³ · ´¥ §¶ ¢´ Â « ¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

3.1%

105.9

112.8 112.3 109.4 111.2

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a

¡·¤É ¹Ê µ ´Ê nª Á º° n° Â¨³ ¸ n° ® oµ

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 300.0

122.5

127.3

250.0

200.0

YͲoͲY 5.3%

2013

MͲoͲM 114.7%

150.0

2012 100.0

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

and Cooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ´ ¸ µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á° ¨ ¨ Â¨oª ´¥q 1.15 – ³ · ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

3.2%

117.8

126.2 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2 127.2

111.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Note: (*) seasonally adjusted

Source: Bank of Thailand

µ ´Ê Á º° n° Â¨³ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ ¸É

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 160.0

147.0

155.0

139.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

2012 150.0

2013

145.0

140.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ1.2%

135.0

YͲoͲY Ͳ2.4%

130.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦·Ã£ Á · Ã °¥nµ ´ªÉ ¹ Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤ Á º° ¨nµ» ´¥q 1.16a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 NGV (kg.)*

Benzene & Gasohol (litre)

8.1

HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)

4.4

Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)

2.6

LPG (litre)*

2.5

Diesel (litre)

2.0

Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)

-0.6

Passenger Car (Unit) Motocycle (Unit)

-2.6 -4.6

Commercial Car (Unit) -7.1 Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¤µ ° ¸ Â¤oªnµnª Ä® n ³ ¦´ ¨ ¨ Ä ´¥q 1.16b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥ ¥¶Ä¢ ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ё.ѕ. 2013

10.5

2.7 0.3 0.9 -4.0 0.4 1.4 -4.0 -3.5 -0.1 7.4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Â ´ µ ³¨° ´ª°¥nµ ´ Á Ä Á º° ¡.¥. ´¥q 1.17 – ³ · ´¥§ º Â¯ (2000 = 100)

CAGR

6.9%

172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8

193.0

183.4 160.8

133.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand

Á Ã ¥ ´ ¸ µ¦¨ » Á° ¨ ¨ n°°¸

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 300.0

2012 250.0

2013 242.1 200.0

210.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.6%

YͲoͲY Ͳ7.8%

50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥ µ¦¨ » Á° nª Ä® nÁ · Ã Ä ¨ oµ Ä Á º° ¨nµ» ´¥q 1.18a – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

Domestic Cement sales (ton)

11.

Construction Area permitted (sqm)

10.6

Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)

Domestic commercial car sales (unit)

Import of Capital Goods -5.8 (2000 prices, Baht)

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

5.8

1.7

nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ Â¤oªnµ ³Á¦·¤É ³¨° ´ª

´¥q 1.18b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ´¥§ º ·Ê¬Ï´ ³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ё.ѕ. 2013

1.0

-0.6

-3.6

-0.6

1.0

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ . Ä nª 10 Á Á ¸¥ ´ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ Ä ¸ n° ´¥q 5.14 – ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ m´ ¥²Â ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

11,331

1 9,460

9,112

8,999

10FY

11FY

8,547

4,853

06FY

Source: BOT

07FY

08FY

09FY

º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê ¤¸¤¼¨ nµÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 8% Á¤º°É

´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ .¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 14,000

10,697

12FY

12,000

2012

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2013

2,000

F M A M J

A S O N D

30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¼¨ nµ µ¦¨ » Ã ¥ ¦ µ . ¸ É °¦´ ¤¼¨ nµ¨ ¨ 22% µ nª Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸

´¥q 5.15 – £»§ m´Ä ¥ ´¥§ º Ä ¤ ¥ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

CAGR

21.5%

396 351 297 236

08FY

09FY

10FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

11FY

· · Ã¸ °Å°Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¸Ê ¤¸ ¸ÂÉ ¨oª

.¬º ¶ ·Ê¬£³ ¥Â n´¥³ ¬¶ ¶ ¶Âª« ·Ä¯Æ¯

648

496 387

12FY

2012/11M 2013/11M

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ ¸°´ ®µ¦·¤ ¦´¡¥r ¥µ¥ ´ªÅ o ¸Ä nª ¸ É

´¥q 1.19a – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2013

Condo unit registered

Value of land transaction

21.0

New housing unit

Constr. Area in municipal

0.8

-5.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

nµ ¤µÄ ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 1.19b – ³ ·¯¬³ ´¥¶£ ¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, ш.з. 2013

71.8

-14.3

-32.0

-7.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

µ¦n °° ¨ ¨ Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ Ã ¥ ´¥q 5.05a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ §º£ m ¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 Total export ReͲexports Forestry Automotive Chemicals Furniture Optical instru Other manufacturing PetroͲchemical Jewellery Apparels Machinery Electrical Toiletries Electronics Metal Agriculture Agro products Petroleum Footware Aircrafts Photo instru Mining Fishery Other export

-3.1

1,106.2 11.4 7.0 5.2 4.4 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.4 1.0 0.4 -0.3 -2.0 -3.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.2 -5.5 -6.9 -7.1 -10.9 -26.2 -27.0 -48.3

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¥¤¸ µ¦n °° °ºÉ ÇÁ È ´ª nª ®¨´

´¥q 5.05b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ´¥¬m ¯¯ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Total export Automotive Chemicals PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Forestry Optical instru Jewellery Apparels Machinery ReͲexports Furniture Electrical Footware Toiletries Aircrafts Photo instru Metal Mining Petroleum Fishery Agriculture Electronics Agro products Other export

-3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -1.7

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ ¨µ n °° ®

´¥q 5.07a – ´¥¬m ¯¯ ´£ ¥²Â ª §´¤ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч 100% = Middle East EU Japan NAFTA Rest of the world

᪛ 7.1 (Trilli

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

5.4

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

13.2

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

10.5

10.7

10.2

11.3

10.3 12.2

11.7

11.1

11.3

17.4

18.1

18.4

18.1

21.0

12.7

16.6

East Asia exͲJapan

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

22.5

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

®¨´ ¤¸ ´ ®µ » ¨µ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ °µÁ ¸¥

´¥q 5.07b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ ¯ ´¥¬m ¯¯ 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2013 ѯъѨѕэдѤэ 2012

ion) 2.4% ASEAN

-0.1%

-1.7%

NAFTA

-2.1%

Middle East

-2.7%

-7.9%

-10.7%

East Asia ex Japan

Japan

Rest of the world 35

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ÎµÁ oµ°ºÉ Ç¤¸ ´ nª ¼ ¤µ ¹Ê Ä nª ´¥q 5.08 – ¬³ ¬m© ´¥ Ï´Â n´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч Ѯ 6.0

Ѯ 4.6

Ѯ 5.9

Others

8.0

7.8

10.2

Capital goods

19.3

22.3

20.9

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

44.8

43.0

44.0

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

20.7

18.6

17.4

Consumer goods

7.1

8.3

7.5

08FY

09FY

10FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê

Ѯ 7.0

Ѯ 7.7

Ѯ 7.1

12.4

10.9

12.3

21.3

24.6

23.3

40.0

37.6

36.2

18.9

19.1

20.3

7.5

7.8

8.0

11FY

12FY

13/11MO

(Trillion)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ÎµÁ oµ¨ ¨ Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° µ¦ ¨· ¸¨É ¨ ´¥q 5.09a – ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ´£ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

Total import

-1.4

Others

10.4

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

5.0

Consumer goods

0.8

Capital goods

-5.7

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-5.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¸ µÁ® »®¨´ ¤µ µ µ¦ ÎµÁ oµª´ » ·

´¥q 5.09b – § ¥² m¯ ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ ´¥ Ï´Â n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

Total import

-1.4

Others

1.1

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

1.0

Consumer goods

0.1

Capital goods

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-1.4

-2.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Î µ ª ´ n° Á ¸¥É ªÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê 20% Ä 11 Á °´ ¦µ µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¦³¥³¥µªÁ º° 3 Á nµ

´¥q 5.18 – Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´Å ¥²Â ªÆ ¤ ¯ ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

8.4%

15.9 13.8 11.7 10.8

14.5

14.1

11.5

10.0

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism

Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2013 ¹É º°ªnµ¼ ªnµ

³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© m´ ´ ¶ ¤¯ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 30.0

22.3 25.0

19.2

Y 11FY 12FY

2013 20.0

2012 15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª ¸ · Á È Á º° ´ n° Á ¸¥É ª ´Ê ®¤ Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 5.19a

Ï´ © ¥³Ë Å ´¥Â n´£´ ¯ ³ m¯ Â ·Ê¤© Ã m ´£¬³ ´ ¶ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Rest of world

14.3

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.9

Americas

6.2

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.2

Europe

27.3

East Asia

28.7

27.9

52.1

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.1

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

° ¦¹ É ® ¹ É ° µ¦Á¡·¤É ¹Ê ° ´¥q 5.19b

10 ¯³ ³ ¯ ¥²Â ª ·Ê£ · Ï´ © ´¥Â n´£´ m¯ Â ·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ £´ ·Ê¬º Â£¹Ê¯Â ·¤ ³ m© Â ·¤© ³ ¯ d ·ÊÃ§n© нњҕ к 10 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013, ёѤьзіѤкѸ China

% ¯ ´¥Â ¶Ê£ ³Ë £

1,859.2

46%

Malaysia

362.1

Russia

357.5

Japan

159.9

Indonesia

142.2

Vietnam

136.7

Korea

128.0

Singapore

127.2

Hong Kong

117.1

Taiwan

107.7

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

Å¤n¤¸ µ¦Á ¨¸¥É Â ¨ °´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ Ã¥ µ

´¥q 3.01a – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Ä¤ ´¤ . 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Dec-13

Jan-13

´¥q 3.01c – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ ´ . ´ ¶ ¤q 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max Min Jan-13 Note: (*) Bangkok Inter Bank Offer Rate

Source: Bank of Thailand

2.50%

0.00% Dec-13

µ¥Ä Á º° . .

´¥q 3.01b – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë n´£ ¹ BIBOR*

Jan-13

2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Dec-13

´¥q 3.01d – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤Ë Â ¶ »§n » n´ ³Ë · . ´ ¶ ¤q Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Jan-13

0.00% Dec-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥ n µ¥¦´ µ¨¨ ¨ Á º° 9% Ä nª 11 Á ¸¥ª ´ ¸ n° ´¥q – ¥´¤ m´¤Å ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

2013 500

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

1 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2013 Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ nª

2012

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

ªµ¤Á ºÉ°¤´ » É ¦ · Â¨³£µ °» µ® ¦¦¤Â¥ ´¥q 1.21a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê º¥ ¶ * 100

Better

49.9 50

48.3

47.5

47.4

46.9

Worse

0 Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened

Source: Bank of Thailand

¥n¨ ´¥q 1.21b – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê ¢´ ¯º ¬´ ¥¥£** 200

Better

100

93.1

91.9

91.3

90.4

92.8

90.3

Worse

0 Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ªµ¤Á ºÉ°¤´ ¼ É o ¦·Ã£ Â¥n¨ Ä Á º° ¡.¥.

´¥q 1.20a – ³ · ©´£Â ¹¯Ê £³ Ê »n ¥¶Ä¢ Overall

100

Better

50 Worse

Worse

0 May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

May-13

Jul-13

(*) єѨзѥҕ ѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 0-100 щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѝ ҕ кѬ дњҕѥ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣчѨеь ѩѸ щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵѳєҕѯю щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣѰ

Source: Ministry of Commerce

On job

On future income

100

Better 50 Worse

0 Sep-13

Nov-13

May-13

ьўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэчѨ јѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјк ўіѪѠъікшѤњѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэюѥьдјѥк ѰѕҕјкўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэѳєҕч Ѩ

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

®¨µ¥ n µ¥ ¦´ ¨ ¦³¤µ µ¦ r µ¦Á · Ã ¦´Ê Ä Á º° . . ´¥q 1.03a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00 5.50 5.00

FPO The Economist poll

BOT NESDB

4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econom

° Á«¦¬ · ´Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê Â¨³ ¸ ® oµ¨ °¸

ist

´¥q 1.03b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 6.00 5.50

FPO

BOT The Economist poll

5.00 4.50

NESDB 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

Forecast as of, month ending 47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Îµ®¦´ ¸ 2013 Á«¦¬ · Å ¥ ¼ µ µ¦ nª Ä® nÄ °µÁ ¸¥ ´¥q 1.04a – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 17/12/2013 China Philippines Pakistan Indonesia Vietnam India Malaysia Singapore Thailand Hong Kong South Korea Australia Brazil Taiwan Japan US Russia Euro Area -0.4

Source: The Economist

7.7 7.0 6.1 5.6 5.5 4.9 4.8 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5

¦ rªnµ ³Á · Ã 3% ¹É ¥´ ÎµÉ ªnµ ¦³Á « ´¥q 1.04b – ¥²£´ ´¥ q ´¥Â ¶ Ä ¯ · · · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 17/12/2013

7.3 6.7 3.9 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.7 2.8 1.0 48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ ¨ ¨ Á È 0.62% Ä Á º° ´¥q 2.08 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч

2.16 2.07 1.83

1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

° . .

Â §·Ê¤¥´¤Â ¹¯ 1.20

1.00

2013 0.80

0.60

0.40

0.68

2012 0.66

11-Avg 12-Avg

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

°´ ¦µ µ¦ªnµ µ Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ ÎµÉ ¤µ Á¤ ´¥q 2.09 – ¯³ ¥´ ´¥©m´ ´ Å ¥²Â ª m´ È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч Thailand Ͳ Oct Singapore Ͳ Q3 South Korea Ͳ Nov

0.6 1.8 2.7

Malaysia Ͳ Sep

3.1

Vietnam Ͳ 2012

3.2

Hong Kong Ͳ Nov

3.3

Japan Ͳ Oct

4.0

China Ͳ Q3

4.0

Taiwan Ͳ Oct Brazil Ͳ Oct Russia Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Nov Pakistan Ͳ 2012 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 Philippines Ͳ Q4 US Ͳ Nov India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Oct Source: The Economist

4.2

°Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ

2 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 7.0 9.9 12.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

Â ªÃ o¤ µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÃ ¥¦ª¤ ¸

´¥q 2.01 –¬³£ ¥²¬¶ ¶Î · ·Ê* 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

¹Ê Â nÄ ¤. ¨´ Â¥n¨

North East North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

µ¦ ¦³ µ¥ ° ¦µ¥Å oÁ¤º°É ¤° Ä °¸ ¤»¤ ´¥q 2.02 – ¬m© Ã m ¥´¤Æ n ´£ §º£ m ¥´¤Æ n ¥n¯¤§² ¯ ¥´¤Æ n ¥² ´ ´ ¶ Top 20% Bottom 20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top 20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second 20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third 20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth 20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom 20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

ÈÁ®È Å oªnµ¤¸¡ ´ µ µ¦ ¸ ¹Ê Â n ÈÅ¤n¤µ ´

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 54

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á « Îµ¨´ ¡´ µ oª¥ ´ o°¥ ªnµ ¦³Á «°¥nµ ¤µÁ¨Á ¸¥ ®¦º° ¸ ´¥q 2.03 – ©´£Â§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´ n´ ¥´¤Æ nÅ Ä§ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ¥² ´ ¥ ·Ê¥©¤ ·Ê¬º 20% Ã¥ Â ·¤ ³ ¥´¤Æ n ¯ §ºm£ ·Ê ·Ê¬º Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis

ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨ÎÊµ oµ ¦µ¥Å o ° Å ¥ È¥ ´

20%, d 2011 ¥¹¯§m´¬º

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

Î µ ª Â¨³´ nª ¥µ ¤¸Â ªÃ o¤¨ ´¥q 2.04a

´¥q 2.04b

Â¬n ©´£¤´

Ï´ © »n¤´

эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь

ј Җѥьзь

3,500

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

1,000 5 500

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legend color:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB

¨ Ä ¦³¥³®¨´ ¥ Áªo Á¡¸¥ Ä ¤. ´¥q 2.04c

¬³ ¬m© »n¤´ % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

North East

South

'03

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

®¨µ¥ ¦³Á «Ä Á°Á ¸¥Â¨³Ä °µÁ ¸¥ ¥´ ¤ ´¥q 2.05 – ©´£¤´ Å Ä§

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India Lao PDR

Pakistan

60.2

Nepal

57.3

Cambodia

53.3

Indonesia

46.1

Vietnam

43.4

Philippines

41.5

South Africa

31.3

China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

Sri Lanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8

¤¸ ´ nª ¥µ ¼

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

Egypt, Arab Rep.

15.4

Venezuela, RB

12.9

Peru

12.7

Brazil

10.8

Iran, Islamic Rep.

8.0

Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

Slovak Republic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

Russian Federation

0.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Å ¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o °o ¥ ªnµ ¸ °· Á ¸¥Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É ¹ ªnµµ¤Á nµ ´¥q 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)

Source: The World Bank

1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110

Ã ¥Á ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È o°¥ Â n¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ ( ) = World rank 186,950 36,770

France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880

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Â n µo Ä o° ´ ¦µÂ¨ Á ¨¸¥É Â ªµ¤Á nµÁ parity) Å ¥ ³¤¸¦µ¥Å o¤µ ªnµ ¸ ´¥q 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ n ¯m ³© Ï´ © Ã PPP 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼ Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)

Source: The World Bank

64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550

¸¥¤ ´ ° °Îµ µ ºÊ ° (Purchasing power ѪѸ , чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ ѥьѥлоѠ

8,710

84,670

( ) = World rank Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦µ¥Å o ¦´ªÁ¦º° Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Á¦Èª ªnµ¦µ¥ n µ¥¦ª¤ Îµ¦ª ¨nµ» Ä ¸ 2011 ´¥q 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ n ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

23,236

14,963

2004

2009

2011

´¥q 2.10b – ¥´¤ m´¤ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ Â §·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

17,403

12,297

2004

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

2011

¤ ´Ê ¦³¥³Áª¨µ ¨° ® ¸Ê ¸¨É ¨ Ä µ¦ ´¥q 2.10c – ·Ë¬¶ Â §·Ê¤ m¯ ¥³©Â¥¹¯ эѥъ

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

´¥q 2.10d – ¥²¤²Â©§´ §¯ ·ËÂ §·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

Á · Á¢o ° ´ªÉ Å ¨ ¨ Â nÁ · Á¢o °¡ºÊ µ Á¡·¤É ¦³ ´ ÎµÉ ´¥q 3.07a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 2.50%

2.00%

Head line

1.50%

1.00%

Core* 0.50%

0.00% Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13 Dec-13

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä Á º° . .Â n¥ ´ º°ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ´¥q 3.07b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ¥´¤ §ºm£¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ы.з. 2013 Meat

7.8

Eggs & milk

6.4

Tobacco & alcohol

3.9

Energy

3.0

Food away from home

2.7

Seasoning

2.4

Prepared food at home

1.9

Rice

1.7

Transport & Commu

1.2

Apparel and footware

0.9

Housing & furnishing

0.8

Recreation & Education

0.6

Medical care

0.5

Non alcoholic beverage

0.5

Veg & fruit

-0.1

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Á¢o °Ä ¦³Á «Å ¥ º°ªnµ n° oµ ÎµÉ Á¤ ´¥q 3.08 – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n ¥¶Ä¢ ³©Ê Ä§ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

India Ͳ Nov

Pakistan Ͳ Nov

Indonesia Ͳ Nov

8.4

Russia Ͳ Nov

6.5

Vietnam Ͳ Nov

5.8

Brazil Ͳ Nov

5.8

Hong Kong Ͳ Oct

4.3

Philippines Ͳ Nov

3.3

China Ͳ Nov

3.0

Malaysia Ͳ Oct

2.8

Australia Ͳ Q3

2.2

Singapore Ͳ Oct

2.0

Thailand Ͳ Dec

1.7

US Ͳ Nov

1.2

Japan Ͳ Oct

1.1

Euro Area Ͳ Nov

0.9

South Korea Ͳ Nov

0.9

Taiwan Ͳ Nov Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

0.7

¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç

2013*

11.2

9.8

0.9

7.5 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.2 4.3 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.9

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Á¢o ° ÎµÉ ¤µ Ä ¦³ ´ ¼ o ¨·

´¥q 3.09a – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5% Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13 Dec-13

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis

´¥q 3.09b – ³ ·¥´ ´ »n §¶ ¥´¤¬¶ n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ы.з. 2013 Fishing Livestocks Petroluem products Energy Metal Leather & footware Chemical NonͲmetallic mineral Food Transport equip Wood Textile Pulp & paper Forestry Forestry Electrical equip -0.3 Basic metals -0.6 Crop -2.3 Rubber & plastic -4.8 Other manu goods -11.1

34.3 13.2 12.1 7.1 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0

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¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

· Á ºÉ° ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥r ¥µ¥ ´ª n°Á º°É

´¥q 3.02a – ¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ ¯ ´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

´¥q 3.02b – ¯³ ¥´¬m© Â ¶ Ån¬¶ Â ¹Ê¯ m¯Â ¶ ´ ¯ 100%

95%

92.2%

93.1%

93.9%

93.4%

Feb-13 Mar-13

90%

85% Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

Source: Bank of Thailand

° Â¨³ ÎµÄ®o£µ¡ ¨n° ¹ ´ªÁ¨È o°¥

pr-13

M-o-M +0.4% Y-o-Y +10.7%

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

95.7%

95.5%

95.0%

Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13

´ ´¥ ´ ¶ ¤q 95.3%

94.9%

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

93.5%

93.3%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê ¸ÅÉ ¤n n°Ä®oÁ · ¦µ¥Å oÁ¡·¤É ¹Ê ´Ê Ä oµ ¤ Å ¦¤µµ¤ ° ¸ ¸Ê

´¥q 3.03a – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

477

445

458

401

380

317

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10Y

´¥q 3.03b – ·Ë ·ÊÆ£m ¯m ÅnÂ ¶ ¥´¤Æ nÅ ¥² ¬ ´ ³ ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч 8.16%

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85%

3.60

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

07YE

08YE

09YE

10Y

¤¼¨ nµÂ¨³´ nª n°¥° Á · ¼ o Ê ´ ®¤ Ä

´¥Â ¶

270

256

11YE

12YE

257

265

268

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3

´¥Â ¶

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

12YE

2.18%

2.21%

2.23%

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 68

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

´ nª Á · ° » ° µ µ¦¡µ · ¥rÁ¡·¤É Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ° ¸

15.8%

16.1%

14.9% 14.0%

13.9%

13.4%

13.3% 12.4%

2003

2004

2005

Source: Bank of Thailand

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

¤Á È 16.6% Ä Á º° . . º°ªnµ¼ ¤µ

¤q ¬¶Ë Â ¹¯ 17.0%

16.2% 16.5%

14.8%

2013 16.0%

15.5%

2012

15.0%

14.5%

14.0%

13.5% 2011

2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¤¸®¨µ¥ ¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸° ´ ¦µ ° Á ¸Ê ¥ ¸ÂÉ o ¦· Á¨È o°¥ ´¥q 3.05 – ¯³ ¥´ ¯ Â ·¤ Ë ·ÊÃ n ¥¶ ц њѤьъѨѷ 30/11/2013

3M riskͲfree interest rates Pakistan

10.1

Brazil

10.0

India

8.7

Indonesia

7.7

Russia

7.2

Vietnam

6.8

China

5.4

Malaysia

3.1

South Korea

2.7

Australia

2.6

Thailand Taiwan

2.0 0.9

Philippines

0.5

Hong Kong

0.4

Singapore

0.3

Euro Area

0.3

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

൞

· ¨ Ä ³ ¸ÄÉ ¦³Á «Å ¥Á È ª

Expected 2013 inflation*

Real interest rates

7.5

2.6

6.2

3.8 9.8

-1.1

7.1

0.6

6.7

0.5

6.6

0.2

2.7

2.0

1.1

1.6 2.3

0.3

2.2

-0.2

0.9

0.0 3.0

-2.5 4.3

2.4

0.3

-3.9 -2.1

1.4

-1.1

1.5

-1.3 -0.2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä Á º° . . ´ ¸ SET ¨ ¨ °¸ 5% nµ¤ ´¥q 3.06a – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ 6.9%

4.3%

-2.0% -5.0%

-5.3%

-9.1%

Jul-13

Aug-13

E Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

´¥q 3.06b – £»§ m´ ´¥§ º ¬²¬£ ¯ m´ ´ ¶ ѧѸ ѯчѪѠь, ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ щкѩ ѝь 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 -150.0 -200.0 -250.0 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13

Source: SET, The Economist

J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13

¤ ¨µ µ¦Á µ¥°¥nµ ® ´ ° nµ µ · ´¥q 3.06c – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § Å ³ · ³ ´ ¬¶Ë d 2012 ц њѤьъѨѷ 17/12/2013 Pakistan (KSE)

50.0%

Japan (Nikkei 225)

47.0%

US (NAScomp)

33.3%

US (S&P 500)

24.9%

US (DJIA)

21.1%

Germany (DAX)

19.3%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)

12.8%

France (CAC 40)

11.7%

UK (FTSE 100)

10.0%

Malaysia (KLSE)

9.6%

Australia (All Ord.)

9.5%

Taiwan (TWI)

8.5%

India (BSE)

6.1%

HK (Hang Seng)

1.8%

China (SSEB, $ terms)

-0.8%

S Korea (KOSPI)

-1.6%

Singapore (STI)

-3.1%

Indonesia (JSX)

-3.1%

Thailand (SET)

-3.9%

China (SSEA)

-5.2%

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

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ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

¸ 2012 ¤¸ µ¦ µ »¨ ¦³¤µ ¼ ¤µ 10 ¸ ¤¸Á¡¸¥ ¸ 2009 Á nµ ´Ê ¸ É µ »¨¤µ ´¥q 4.1 – º§ ¥²£´ Â£¹¯Ê Â ·¤ ³ · · · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч

1.4% 0.3% 0.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6%

-1.7 -2.0%

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ Á È ´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸ Â¨³Ä ¦° ªnµ

-0.3% -0.7% -1.1%-1.1%

-1.3%

% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY 73

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»¨ ¦³¤µ Ä nª 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ Á ¸¥ª ´ ° ¸ n° ® oµ º°ªnµ µ ³ µ¦ ¨ ´¥q 4.2 – º§ ¥²£´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³

1,013

º§ ¥²£´

1,109

1,241

-36

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

1,484

110 -364

-996

-1,109 -1,277

-1,280 -1,629

¥´¤ m´¤

-1,598 -1,849

-1

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

2013 µ »¨¨ ¨ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ nª ´ ¸ ¹Ê ¤µ

º§ ¥²£´ ¬²¬£¥´¤Â ¹¯ 100.0 2,077 ,751

1,902

2013 0.0

-100.0

-75

-28 -412 -200.0

2012 -300.0

1,825

-1,930 -400.0 -2,489

-500.0

0FY 11FY 12FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ä 11 Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ 2013 »¨ ¦³¤ Á · µ »¨ 117 ¡´ ¨oµ µ ´¥q 4.3 – º§ ¥²£´ Ã§² º§Â ¶ ¬ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ º§ ¥²£´ º§Â ¶ ¬ 110 88 16

24 0

-36 -45

-1 -144 -174

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY

¤µ µ »¨ 121 ¡´ ¨oµ µ nª »¨

-28 -75 00 -96

-121 -117

-137

-266

-364 -401

-412 -466

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

'13/11mo

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¦³Á «°ºÉ Ç µ¦ µ »¨ Â¥nÁ®¤º° ¦³Á « ¸ É »n ®¦º°®¦´ ²

´¥q 4.4 – º§ ¥²£´ m¯ · · ·Å ¥²Â ª m´ È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Hong Kong Singapore South Korea Russia Philippines China Australia Taiwan Brazil Euro Area Thailand Indonesia US Malaysia

Vietnam

-4

India Pakistan Japan

Source: The Economist

-5.1 -8.0 -8.2

¦³¤µ ° Å ¥ º°ªnµÅ¤n ¸ ´ Â n ÈÅ¤nÅ o

È 1.8 0.7 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.3 -4.1

-4.2 .4

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³Á¡·¤É ¼ ¹Ê Á¨È o°¥Ä nª ¸É nµ ´¥q 4.5a – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0

4.0

Public debt from State Enterprises

3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0

1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%

2010

2011

2012

Sep-13

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as

µ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê ´¥q 4.5b – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

35% 30% 25%

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

20% 15% 10%

Direct Government debt

5% 0%

2009

ternal debt percent of total

2010

2011

2012

Sep-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê µ µ¦ ³ ° Å ¥Å¤n °º ªnµ°¥¼nÄ ¦³ ´ ´¥q 4.6 – ·Ë¬´ ´¥ ²Å Ä§ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan Source: CIA fact book

219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64

¸É ¼ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¤µ ¦ µ µ µ µ ·

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia

56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11

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¦» ¼ o ¦·®µ¦

´¥Â ¶ Ä

´¥ ¥² ´¤ ¥´¤Æ n

Â¬ ·¤¥¢´

ѳшієѥѝѝѥєеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѝѠкѳшієѥѝѰід

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 11 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ эѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥ1.5% ѲьѯчѪѠьы.з.

»¨ µ¦ Îµ¦³Á · · ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä nª 11 »¨ ¦· µ¦Â¨³¦µ¥Å o» · ´¥q 5.01 – º§ ´¥ Ï´¥²Â ¶ ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ

31.3 24.7

24.1

5.3 1.2

-4.8 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

12FY

13/11mo

Á º° Â¦ ° ¸ µÁ® »®¨´ µ µ¦ µ º§ ´¥ n´ (F.O.B) 32.6

29.8

17.3

17.0 8.3

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

4.4 13/11mo

º§ ¥¶ ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ n¬º ¶

-5.6 -10.7

-11.1

-15.2

-9.7

-19.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/11mo

21.3 2.2

2.5

0.5

12FY

13/11mo

-4.7 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

¦³Á « ¸¤É ¸ »¨ ´ ¸Á · ³¡´ Á · »¨¤µ Á · Ä®¤nÄ Á°Á ¸¥ ´¥q 5.02 – º§ ³ ·Â ¶ ¬² ³ As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q3 Taiwan Ͳ Q3 Vietnam Ͳ 2012

5.9%

Malaysia Ͳ Q3

5.0%

South Korea Ͳ Oct

4.7%

Philippines Ͳ Jun

2.7%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

2.4%

Russia Ͳ Q3

2.4%

Euro Area Ͳ Sep

2.0%

China Ͳ Q3

1.9%

Japan Ͳ Oct

1.0%

Pakistan Ͳ Q3

-0.9%

Thailand Ͳ Q3

-1.1%

US Ͳ Q3

-2.4%

Australia Ͳ Q3

-2.6%

India Ͳ Q3

-3.0%

Brazil Ͳ Oct

-3.6%

Indonesia Ͳ Q3

-3.8%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T

ÇÁ¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ ¸ ¸¡¸ nª Ä® nÁ È Á«¦¬ ·

Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.9%

49.8

11.8%

hailand and NESDB

56.3 9.1 14.2 68.1 10.1 5.7 40.1 251.1 14.0 41.2 -4.1 -4.1 -398.7 -51.3 -76.9 -82.2 -32.1

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»¨ µ¦ oµÄ ¦¼ Á · µ · ¨ ® ´ ªnµÁ ·¤ n °° ¸¨É ¨ ¤µ ªnµ µ¦ ÎµÁ oµ ´¥q 5.03 – º§ ´¥ n´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

´¥¬m ¯¯ ¬²¬£ ³Ë Ã m n d 8,000

൞

´¥ Ï´Â n´¬²¬ 8,000

7,000

2012

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

2,000 2013

1,000

Y-o-Y -3.1%

201 1,000 0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

J F M A

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjust (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¤Ä nª ¸ É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ¸Ê Á º°É µ µ¦

¬£ ³Ë Ã m n d

º§ ´¥ n´¬²¬£ ³Ë Ã m n d 0

-100

2012

-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600

Y-o-Y -1.4%

M J J A S O N D

tments and exchange rate conversion and exchange rate conversion

-700 -800

J F M A M J J A S O N D

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «Á¡·¤É ¹Ê Ä ¸ ¸Ê Ä ¦¼ ´ªÁ · Â ´¥q 5.10a – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0

04YE

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

´¥q 5.10b – ¥² ³ ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

40.9%

04YE

37.0%

05YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

08YE

Â n¨ ¨ Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ Á È ´ nª n° ¸ ¸¡¸

09YE

28.8%

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.8%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/3Q

38.8%

38.3%

12YE

13/3Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Ã ¦ ¦oµ ® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á « ° Å ¥Å¤nÁ ¨¸¥É ´¥q 5.11a – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£ ¥²Â¢ §» ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

92%

09YE

13%

15%

20%

87%

85%

80%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/3Q

Source: Bank of Thailand

¥ Â ¨ Ä nª ¸É nµ ¤µ ° ¸ ´¥q 5.11b – ·Ë m´ ¥²Â ª ´£¥²¤²Â©§´ ·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Long term Short term

44%

56%

09YE

50%

10YE

45%

46%

44%

55%

54%

56%

11YE

12YE

13/3Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ªµ¤µ¤µ¦ Ä µ¦ Îµ¦³® ¸Ê nµ ¦³Á «

418% 370% 340%

330%

312% 280%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

12YE

13/3Q

° Å ¥¥´ Å¤n nµÁ È ¸ É ´ ª¨

8.2% 7.6%

4.7% 4.2% 3.7%

3.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/3Q

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

Á · Îµ¦° ¦³®ªnµ ¦³Á «¨ ¨ Á¨È o°¥Ä

54.4

55.9

2004

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

9.1 6.9

2004

5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

Ѥ р (*) іњєєѬјзҕѥеѠк Net forward position ъѨыѷ юъ.єѨѓѥіѣяѬдёѤьѲьѝр (**) ѲнєѬҖ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

¸ ¸Ê Â n¥ ´ ¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

191.7

206.4

205.8

2011

2012

191.3

154.1

2009

13.8

2010

12.6 10.8

2009

Nov-13

2010

рѥ currency forward contracts

2011

10.0

2012

9.1

Nov-13

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

nµÁ · µ °n° nµ¨ 1.5% Ä Á º° . . µ µ¦ ´¥q 5.17a – ³ · m´Â ¶ ´ 2007 = 100

114.0

Baht appreciates

112.0

110.0

108.0

106.0

MͲoͲM

Ͳ1.5%

104.0

102.0

YͲoͲY

Ͳ0.1%

Baht depreciates Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

100.0

98.0 Dec-13

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

Á¤º°É Á ¸¥ ´ »¨Á · nµ ÇÄ ¦³ ¦oµÁ ·

´¥q 5.17b – ´¥Â §·Ê¤ Ã § ¯ ¯³ ¥´Ã§ Â §·Ê¤ % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 27/12/2013 EUR Ͳ 45.3223

10.9

CNY Ͳ 5.4756

9.8

GBP Ͳ 54.2572

9.2

KRW Ͳ 0.0311

8.4

USD Ͳ 32.9494

7.1

VND Ͳ 0.0016

6.7

MXN Ͳ 2.519

6.2

TWD Ͳ 1.0985

3.6

SGD Ͳ 26.1167

3.3

MYR Ͳ 10.1137

-0.5

PHP Ͳ 0.7529

-0.7

INR Ͳ 0.5631

-6.1

AUD Ͳ 29.4474 JPY Ͳ 31.5869

-8.2 -11.8

IDR Ͳ 2.8821 -15.2 Baht appreciates

Baht depreciates 87