Monthly Economic Brief February 2014 issue
Executive summary Growth GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a year ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters. On the expenditure side, , Export contributed the most to total real GDP growth. On the production side, Manufacturing is the main drag. Manufacturing production ended the year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture production recovered impressively. On the expenditure side, Private consumption improved slightly while Private Investment continued to slow down. FDI increased slightly yearͲtoͲdate. Export tumbled and registered Ͳ2.4% growth in 2013. The problem occurred in every main export markets, except ASEAN and EU. On the other hand, Import also registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals grew at an impressive 19% in 2013. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate in a downward trend. Government spending caught up in the last month of 2013.
Confidence in private s Businesses, Industries more pessimistic.
No change in consensu Consensus projection i 3.7% for 2013 and 4.4
Employment and wea In November unemplo to 0.72%, still a very lo other major and emer
Thailand’s per capita in 5,210 in 2012, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is worsened. and Consumers were
us projection in January. is now between 2.8%Ͳ 4Ͳ5.1% for 2014.
alth distribution oyment rate increased ow rate compared to ging economies.
ncome was at USD 102nd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability Head line inflation increased to 1.93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. Producer Price Index increased 1.2% from a year ago. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio is still high, at 16.1% in November. Total system’s NPL decreased slightly in 2013. Liquidity in the system tightened as loan growth accelerated. Big improvement in budget deficit was cut by half in 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 45% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment turned to deficit in 2013 due to negative net service and transfer. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. THB depreciated 1.2% against a basket of key currencies in January.
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
3
GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a ye first two quarters Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%
CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 = 4.3% 2.2%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ear ago, a slower pace than the
7.8% 6.5% 5.4%
2.9% 2.7%
5%
0.1%
-2.3%
08 2009 2010 2011 2012
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Manufacturing’s slow down has d the most Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 3Q13 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 2.67
GDP
15.10
Hotel&Res 11.32
Financial
8.64
Transport Other social
6.00
Education
5.90 5.08
Health&Social
3.33
RealEstate PublicAdmin
2.84
Trading
2.50 1.04
Utilities
0.46
Agriculture Manufacture
-0.43
Construction
-2.20
Mining
-2.48
Private HH
-2.64
Fishing-7.42 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
dragged the overall GDP growth
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 3Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 2.67
GDP 0.86
Transport
0.63
Hotel&Res
0.56
Financial
0.33
Trading Education
0.16
Other social
0.14
RealEstate
0.14
PublicAdmin
0.08
Health&Social
0.07
Utilities
0.04
Agriculture
0.03
Private HH
0.00
Construction
-0.06
Mining
-0.06
Fishing
-0.07
Manufacture
-0.17
5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Export contributed the most to to
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 3Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
2.7
G
7.4
X
3.8
ͲM
0.7
I
-1.0
C
-1.2
I (capital)
-6.5
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
otal real GDP growth in 3Q13
Q13 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 3Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
2.7
X
2.9
I (Inventory)
1.4
G
0.9
Discrpncy ͲM C
0.1
-0.4
-0.6
I (capital) -1.6
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
7
Manufacturing production ended disappointing level
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
4.3%
194.2 174.8 152.1
161.1
182.6 170.0
138.6 124.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
d the year 2013 with
Monthly Average 250.0
200.0
177.7 181.6
2012
2013 150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ1.9% YͲoͲY Ͳ6.1%
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most sectors had their production
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector December 2013, percent Wood products
11
Electrical
10
Basic Mat
8.2
Leather
7.6 6.5
Paper Electronic
2.8
Textiles
2.4
Petroleum
2.0
Mineral
1.6
Precision instru
1.4
Chemical
1.3 0.3
Apparel Rubber&Plastic
-1.5
Office automate
-2.2
Metal products
-2.5
Tobacco
-5.5
Machineries
-6.4 -12.6
Transport Equip Food & Bev
-14.3
Furniture
-15.2
Vehicles
-21.3
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
n dropped from last month
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector December 2013, percent .7
-6.1 -11.5
0.4
-8.4 -3.9 0.9 -0.9 -3.8 5.7 -5.6 0.6 -2.0 -7.8 -15.2 0.6 -8.0 9.9 -4.8 -4.0 7.5 -5.9 -11.1
9 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A dip in Capacity utilization rate i
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70% 60.1%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
n December
3
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector December 2013, percent Chemical Petroleum Electrical Vehicles Precision instru Mineral Transport Equip Paper Office automate Machineries Rubber&Plastic Metal products Electronic Food & Bev Basic Mat Textiles Tobacco Apparel Leather Furniture Wood products
86% 85% 82% 77% 70% 68% 67% 64% 62% 61% 59% 57% 54% 51% 46% 42% 41% 38% 33% 30% 21%
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s MPI dropped the most Philippines and China enjoyed hig
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ Nov China Ͳ Dec Singapore Ͳ Dec Taiwan Ͳ Dec Japan Ͳ Nov Malaysia Ͳ Nov
3
US Ͳ Dec Pakistan Ͳ Nov
3
Vietnam Ͳ Jan
3.
Euro Area Ͳ Nov
3.
Australia Ͳ Q3
2.7
South Korea Ͳ Dec
2.6 0.8
Russia Ͳ Dec
0.4
Brazil Ͳ Nov -0.9
Hong Kong Ͳ Q3 Indonesia Ͳ Nov
-1.9
India Ͳ Nov
-2.1
Thailand Ͳ Dec Source: The Economist
-6.1
t from a year ago, while ghest growth
x 21.3 9.7 6.2 5.1 4.8 4.3
3.7
3.4 0 0
7
6
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Agriculture production grew sligh
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100) CAGR
3.2%
100.0
105.9
112.8 112.0 109.4 111.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
htly from a year ago
Monthly Average 300.0
122.5
128.0
250.0
200.0
YͲoͲY 1.6%
2013
MͲoͲM Ͳ18.2%
150.0
2012 100.0
50.0
0.0
2011 2012
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
13
Private consumption improved sl
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
3.2%
111.2
117.8
126.2 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2 127.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
ightly from last month
Index* Monthly Average 160.0
147.0
155.0
139.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
2012 150.0
2013
145.0
140.0
MͲoͲM 0.4%
135.0
YͲoͲY Ͳ0.2%
130.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
2013 was not a good year for veh
Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change Full year 2013 vs 2012, percent
1
NGV (kg.)*
3.1
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour) Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
2.5
LPG (litre)*
2.4
-0.5
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
-5.0
Passenger Car (Unit)
Motocycle (Unit)
-5.8
Commercial Car (Unit)-8.1 Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
icle consumption
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Dec vs Nov 2013, percent 0.3
0.6
-3.3
1.9
1.2
2.1
-3.0
-3.3
-2.8
15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment continued to d
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
6.9%
172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8
193.0
183.4 160.8
133.2
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
decline
Monthly Average 300.0
2012 250.0
2013
242.1 200.0
210.2
11-Avg 12-Avg
150.0
100.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.8%
YͲoͲY Ͳ8.1%
50.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most private investment expendi far this year despite recent slow d Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change Full year 2013 vs 2012, percent
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
10.5
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
9.9
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
Domestic commercial car sales (unit)
Import of Capital Goods -6.6 (2000 prices, Baht)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5.4
-0.7
tures had impressive growth so down Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Dec vs Nov 2013, percent
5
-1.7
0.1
-6.7
-0.9
-1.4
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Cumulative FDI in the first 11 mon the same period last year Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD 11,331
1 9,460
9,112
8,999
10FY
11FY
8,547
4,853
06FY
07FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
08FY
09FY
nths of 2013 increased 17% from
Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000
10,697
12FY
2013 12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2012
2,000
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOI’s net application in 2013 drop
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht
CAGR
21.5%
396 351 297 236
08FY
09FY
10FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
11FY
pped 19%
irect investment*
648
648
-19%
525
12FY
2012/12M 2013/12M
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Japan has been the biggest source
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* break Percent of total
Others
17%
USA
10%
ANIEs
12%
3% 6% 6%
ASEAN
12%
17%
Europe
27%
23%
44%
Japan
22%
09FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis
10FY
e of FDI for Thailand
kdown by country group
11% 27%
4% 10%
2% 7% 8%
7% 10%
21% 2% 6% 10% 7%
7%
49%
11FY
58%
54%
12FY
2013/12M 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Property indicators have largely g
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 11 months of 2013 vs those of 2012, percent
24.
Condo unit registered
18.5
Value of land transaction
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal-6.6
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5.8
grown this year
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Nov vs Oct 2013, percent
4
-3.1
-5.1
54.2
-37.8
21 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
22
Export has decreased in 2013, wit Electronics the main drags
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Full year 2013 vs that of 2012, percent Total export ReͲexports Forestry Automotive Chemicals Optical instru Furniture Other manufacturing PetroͲchemical Jewellery Machinery Apparels Electrical Toiletries Agriculture Electronics Petroleum Agro products Footware Aircrafts Metal Photo instru Mining Fishery Other export
-2.4
1,324 12.1 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 0.0 -1.7 -1.9 -2.8 -3.1 -4.8 -5.6 -6.7 -7.6 -9.7 -25.5 -26.9 -45.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
th Other export, Agro and Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth
Total export Automotive 4.6 Chemicals PetroͲchemical Machinery Other manufacturing Jewellery Forestry Optical instru Apparels ReͲexports Furniture Electrical Footware Toiletries Aircrafts Photo instru Agriculture Petroleum Mining Fishery Metal Electronics Agro products Other export
-2.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -1.5
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Apart from ASEAN and EU, export 2013 Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
7.1 (Trilli
100% =
5.9
5.2
6.1
6.7
Middle East
5.4
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
EU
13.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
11.3
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
11.7
11.1
11.3
12.7
12.2 18.4
18.1
17.4
18.1
21.0
21.0
Japan NAFTA Rest of the world
16.6
East Asia exͲJapan
18.3
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
22.5
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.7
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
t decreased in every regions in
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, 2013 vs 2012
ion) 2.7% ASEAN
0.5%
-1.1%
-7.3%
-10.2%
EU
NAFTA
-1.6%
East Asia ex Japan
-1.8%
Middle East
Japan
Rest of the world 24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Import has decreased in 2013, dri intermediate and capital goods
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Full year 2013 vs 2012, percent
-1.9
Total import
6.6
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
4.2
Others
1.4
Consumer goods
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
Capital goods
-5.7
-6.5
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
iven by the decrease in
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
Total import
-1.9
1.2
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
0.5
Others
0.1
Consumer goods
Capital goods
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-1.6
-2.1
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Others import has gained more sh
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 6.0
Ѯ 4.6
Ѯ 5.9
Others
8.0
7.8
10.2
Capital goods
19.3
22.3
20.9
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
44.8
43.0
44.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
20.7
18.6
17.4
Consumer goods
7.1
8.3
7.5
08FY
09FY
10FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
hare this year
n
4
Y
Ѯ 7.0
Ѯ 7.7
Ѯ 7.7
12.4
10.9
12.1
21.3
24.6
23.2
40.0
37.6
36.0
18.9
19.1
20.6
7.5
7.8
8.0
11FY
12FY
13FY
(Trillion)
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals increased 19% in 2
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
8.4%
15.9 13.8 10.8
11.7
14.5
14.1
11.5
10.0
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism
2013
Monthly cumulative 30.0
22.3 25.0
2013
19.2
Y 11FY 12FY
20.0
2012 15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
China accounted for almost half o arrivals so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world
14.3
15.3
15.6
14.7
13.9
Americas
6.2
6.0
5.3
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.2
Europe
27.3
East Asia
28.7
27.9
52.1
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.1
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
of the total increase in tourist
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality 2013 vs 2012, Thousands
% of total change
1,861.6
China 412.9
Russia
378.6
Malaysia
44% 10% 9%
Japan
162.7
4%
Vietnam
153.9
3%
Indonesia
140.0
3%
Singapore
132.4
3%
Korea
127.1
3%
Taiwan
107.6
3%
Laos
107.1
3%
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
29
No change in policy rate in Januar
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Feb-13
2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Jan-14
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Feb-13
0.00% Jan-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
ry
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Jan-14
Feb-13
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Feb-13
anches
0.00% Jan-14
30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
3% decrease in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
2
500
0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in 2013
2012
2013
J
A
S
O
N
D
31
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
32
Businesses and Industries were m
Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
50
48.3
47.5
47.5
47.4
46.9
45.0
Worse
0 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
more pessimistic in December
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
91.9
91.3
90.4
92.8
90.3
88.3
Worse
0 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
33 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumer were more pessimistic
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Jun-13
Aug-1
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior mo Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of th Source: Ministry of Commerce
c in December
On job
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 3
Oct-13
onth e prior month he prior month
Dec-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
35
No change in consensus projectio
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50 5.00 The Economist poll
4.50
BOT
4.00 3.50
NESDB
3.00
FPO
2.50 2.00
Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
on in January
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50 5.00
BOT The Economist poll
NESDB
4.50
FPO
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00
Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Forecast as of, month ending 36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are emerging economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Jan 31st 2014
7.7
China Philippines Pakistan Indonesia Vietnam India Malaysia Singapore Hong Kong Thailand South Korea Australia Brazil Taiwan US Japan Russia Euro Area -0.4
Source: The Economist
6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 3.7 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5
e quite low compared to other
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of Jan 31st 2014
7
7.2 6.7 3.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 5.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.4 2.8 2.2 2.9 2.7 1.5 2.9 1.0 37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
38
Unemployment rate increased sli
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
ghtly in November
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
2013 0.80
0.60
0.40
0.68
2012
0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Nov Singapore Ͳ Q4 South Korea Ͳ Dec
0.7 1.8 3.0
Vietnam Ͳ 2012
3.2
Hong Kong Ͳ Dec
3.2
Malaysia Ͳ Nov
3.4
Japan Ͳ Nov
4.0
China Ͳ Q4
4.1
Taiwan Ͳ Dec
4.1
Brazil Ͳ Nov Russia Ͳ Dec Australia Ͳ Dec Pakistan Ͳ 2013 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 Philippines Ͳ Q4 US Ͳ Dec India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Nov Source: The Economist
4
lowest comparing to other
4.6 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 9.9 12.1
40 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
41
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 43
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
45
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 186,950
36,770
France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880 48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th with higher GNI per capita than C
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550
hailand’s rank improved to 89th, China
es
8,710
30
0
( ) = World rank 84,670
Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370 49
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Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
51
Both headline and core inflation i
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 2.50%
2.00%
Head line
1.50%
1.00%
Core* 0.50%
0.00% Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
increased slightly in January
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product January 2014, percent Meat
8.3
Eggs & milk
5.3
Tobacco & alcohol
4.0
Energy
3.6
Food away from home
3.3
Seasoning
3.1
Prepared food at home
2.6
Veg & fruit
1.8
Rice
1.6
Transport & Commu
1.4
Apparel and footware
0.9
Housing & furnishing
0.9
Recreation & Education
0.5
Non alcoholic beverage
0.5
Medical care
0.5
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest 9.9
India Ͳ Dec
9.2
Pakistan Ͳ Dec
8.4
Indonesia Ͳ Dec 6.5
Russia Ͳ Dec
5.9
Brazil Ͳ Dec
5.5
Vietnam Ͳ Jan 4.3
Hong Kong Ͳ Dec
4.1
Philippines Ͳ Dec 3.2
Malaysia Ͳ Dec
2.7
Australia Ͳ Q4
2.5
China Ͳ Dec
1.9
Thailand Ͳ Jan Japan Ͳ Nov
1.6
Singapore Ͳ Dec
1.5
US Ͳ Dec
1.5
South Korea Ͳ Dec Euro Area Ͳ Dec Taiwan Ͳ Dec Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
1.1 0.8 0.3
he low side compared to other
2013* 10.1 7.7 7.0 6.8 6.2 6.6 4.3 2.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.2 0.2 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.8
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Inflation at producer level increas
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5% Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
sed slightly but remained low
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product January 2014, percent Fishing Petroluem products Livestocks Energy Metal NonͲmetallic mineral Leather & footware Chemical Transport equip Textile Pulp & paper Wood Food Mechinery Forestry Electrical equip Crop Basic metals Rubber & plastic Other manu goods
30.5 12.4 12.0 8.4 3.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -1.7 -8.5 -8.9
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
55
Bank’s loan continued its strong g tight Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Ma
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95%
93.1%
93.1%
93.9%
93.4%
93.5%
9
90% 85% Dec-12 Jan-13
Source: Bank of Thailand
Feb-13 Mar-13
Apr-13 M
growth while liquidity remained
M-o-M +1.6% Y-o-Y +10.7%
ay-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
95.7%
95.5%
95.0%
95.0%
it* ratio
95.3%
94.9%
May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
93.3%
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13 Nov-13
56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased slightly in 20 decreased as percent of total loan
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10YE
270
11Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
06YE
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
08YE
09YE
10YE
2.75
11Y
013 in absolute value but n
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
256
267
YE
12YE
13YE
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
2.26%
2.16%
12YE
13YE
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio decreased sig
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 13.4%
13.3%
1 14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
gnificantly in November
nks* Month End 17.0%
16.2%
16.5%
14.8% 16.0%
15.5%
2013
2012
15.0%
14.5%
14.0%
2011
anches
2012
13.5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s real interest rate is slig Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Feb 1st 2014
3M riskͲfree interest rates 10.6
Brazil
10.1
Pakistan 8.9
India
8.0
Indonesia
7.3
Russia
6.8
Vietnam
5.6
China 3.3
Malaysia South Korea
2.7
Australia
2.6 2.1
Thailand
1.4
Philippines Taiwan
0.9
Hong Kong
0.4
Singapore
0.3
Euro Area
0.3
US
0.2
Japan
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
ghtly negative
=
Expected 2013 inflation*
Real interest rates
6.2 2.4
7.7 -1.2 1.0
7.0
0.5
6.8
0.2
6.6
3.0
2.6 1.2
2.1
1.4
1.3
0.2
2.4 -0.1
2.2
-1.5
2.9
0.1
0.8 4.3 2.4
0.2
-3.9 -2.1
1.4
-1.1
1.5
-1.3 -0.1
59
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SET dropped another 2% in Janua Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end 6.9%
4.3%
-1.9% -5.0%
-5.3%
-9.1%
Aug-13
E Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 -12.0 -14.0 -16.0
D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
ary amid foreign selling Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of January 29th 2014 57.3%
Pakistan (KSE)
48.0%
Japan (Nikkei 225) 34.2%
US (NAScomp)
24.4%
US (S&P 500)
22.7%
Germany (DAX)
20.1%
US (DJIA)
15.7%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
14.2%
France (CAC 40) Australia (All Ord.)
12.3%
UK (FTSE 100)
11.0%
Taiwan (TWI)
9.9%
India (BSE)
6.3%
Malaysia (KLSE)
5.9% 2.3%
Indonesia (JSX) China (SSEB, $ terms)
-1.6%
HK (Hang Seng)
-2.3%
S Korea (KOSPI)
-2.8%
Singapore (STI)
-3.8%
Thailand (SET) -8.7% China (SSEA)-9.7%
60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
61
Huge government budget deficit r slightly better than in 2009
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4% 0.3% 0.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6%
-1.7 -2.0%
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
relative to GDP in 2012, only
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
-1.1%-1.1%
-1.3%
% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
08FY
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY 62
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Budget deficit cut almost half from Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1
Revenue 1,013
1,109
16
0
Budget balance -996
-1,109
1,241
-36
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1,484
110 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1
03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
m 2012 level
Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 100.0 ,751
1,902
2,077
2013 0.0
-100.0
-75
-28 -412 -200.0
2012
-300.0
1,825
-1,930 -400.0 -2,489
-500.0
0FY 11FY 12FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Smaller deficit in 2013
Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110
16
24
0
88
8
-36 -45
-1 -144 -174
03FY
04FY
05FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
06FY
07FY
plus)
-28 -75
00 -96
-137
-236 -266
-272
-364 -401
-412 -466
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
'13/12mo
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit in 2013 is GDP
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2013*, percent Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Russia Philippines China Taiwan Brazil Euro Area Australia Thailand Indonesia US Vietnam
-
Malaysia -5.1
India Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-8.0 -8.2
expected to be around 3% of
ercentage of GDP 2.1 1.8 0.9 -0.5 -1.0 -1.8 -2.3 -2.7 -2.9 -3.1 -3.1 -3.3 -4.1 -4.1
-4.2
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt so
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%
2010
2011
2012
Nov-13
8%
8%
7%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Ext as
o far in 2013
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2009
ternal debt percent of total
2010
2011
2012
Nov-13
66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
67
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• GDP in 3Q13 grew 2.7% from a yea Ͳ On the expenditure side, Ex Ͳ On the production side, Ma • Manufacturing production ended t production grew from a year ago • Private consumption improved slig down • Export tumbled, Import decreased, • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses and consumers were m • No change in consensus projection for 2013 and 4.4Ͳ5.1% for 2014
• In November unemployment rate i countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index increased 1.2 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Big improvement in budget deficit worrying just yet. • Balance of Payment turned to defic THB depreciated 1.2% in January.
ar ago, a slower pace than the first two quarters xport contributed the most to total real GDP growth anufacturing is the main drag he year 2013 with disappointing level, while Agriculture
htly in December while Private Investment continued to slow
, tourist arrivals grew strongly n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic in January; consensus projection is now between 2.8%Ͳ3.7% ncreased to 0.72%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
93% while Core increased slightly to 1.04% in January. % from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. was cut by half in 2013. Public debt is increasing but not too
cit. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
68
Deficit Balance of Payments in 20 service income and transfer
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.7
24.1
5.3 1.2
-5.0 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
12FY
13/12mo
013 due largely to negative net Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
on
29.8
17.3
08FY
17.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
8.3
6.4
12FY
13/12mo
Net service income & transfer -5.6
+
-15.2
08FY
-10.7
-11.1
-9.1
-19.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/12mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 22.5
21.3 2.5
2.2
-2.3
-4.7 08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/12mo
69
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Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q3
1
Taiwan Ͳ Q3 5.8%
Vietnam Ͳ 2012 Malaysia Ͳ Q3
5.0%
South Korea Ͳ Dec
4.6% 3.1%
Philippines Ͳ Sep Russia Ͳ Q4
2.3%
Euro Area Ͳ Nov
2.0%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q3
1.9%
China Ͳ Q3
1.9% 0.9%
Japan Ͳ Nov Pakistan Ͳ Q4
-1.4%
Thailand Ͳ Q3
-1.6%
US Ͳ Q3
-2.5%
Australia Ͳ Q3
-2.8%
India Ͳ Q3
-3.1%
Brazil Ͳ Dec
-3.7%
Indonesia Ͳ Q3
-3.9%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.9%
49.8
11.5%
56.3 9.1 14.2 70.7 11.3 33.0 279.2 5.4 183.9 37.8 -4.0 -6.1 -398.7 -51.3 -76.9 -81.4 -32.1
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Worsened trade balance in 2013 a import Chart 5.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* decomposition Billion Baht
ŕľ&#x17E;
Cumulative Export 8,000 7,000
2012
Cumulative 8,000 7,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
2013
Y-o-Y -2.4%
0
1,000
201
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J F M A
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
as export dropped more than
=
Import
3
Cumulative Trade balance 0
2012 -100
2012
-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600 Y-o-Y -1.9%
M J J A S O N D
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
-700 -800
J F M A M J J A S O N D
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in a percentage of GDP Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
04YE
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.9%
04YE
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
08YE
bsolute value but decreased as
E
09YE
%
28.8%
E
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.8%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
38.8%
38.3%
12YE
13/3Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Structure of external debt does n year Chart 5.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
8%
92%
09YE
13%
15%
20%
20%
87%
85%
80%
80%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
Source: Bank of Thailand
ot change much from end of last
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
56%
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
45%
46%
44%
55%
54%
56%
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340%
330%
312% 280%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
8.2% 7.6%
4.7%
4.2% 3.7%
3.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/3Q
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
54.4
55.9
2004
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
9.1 6.9
2004
5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly so far this year but
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
190.2
154.1
0
8
2009
2010
Dec-13
er of months of import** 13.8
12.6 10.8
8
2009
the last 12 months
2010
2011
10.0
2012
9.1
Dec-13
75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB depreciated slightly against k
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
114.0
Baht appreciates MͲoͲM
Ͳ1.2%
112.0
110.0
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
Ͳ4.0%
Baht depreciates Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
98.0
96.0 Jan-14
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
key currencies in December
e
0
0
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Jan 31st 2014 GBP Ͳ 54.7536
15.6
VND Ͳ 0.0016
14.3
CNY Ͳ 5.5178
13.6
KRW Ͳ 0.0307
11.6
0
USD Ͳ 33.1413
10.8
0
EUR Ͳ 45.0266
10.7
0
TWD Ͳ 1.0918
7.8
0
SGD Ͳ 26.1055
7.5
MXN Ͳ 2.4797
5.4
MYR Ͳ 10.0236
2.7
PHP Ͳ 0.742
-0.4
JPY Ͳ 32.4275
-1.9
AUD Ͳ 29.2869
-6.4
INR Ͳ 0.5597
-6.8
IDR Ͳ 2.9025
-11.9
Baht appreciates
Baht depreciates 76
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