Monthly Economic Brief March 2014 issue
Executive summary Growth GDP in 4Q13 grew only 0.56% from a year ago, a slower pace than the first three quarters. Total growth for the whole year is 2.9%. On the expenditure side, Investment and Private consumption were affected and contributed negatively to the overall growth in 4Q13. On the production side, Manufacturing’s slow down was the main drag. Manufacturing production continues its decline into 2014, while Agriculture production recovered impressively. On the expenditure side, Private consumption improved slightly while Private Investment continued to slow down. FDI increased 20% in 2013. Export grew 4.2% in THB term but dropped in USD term. Positive growth occurred in all major markets. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals was on par with a year ago. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate in a downward trend. Government spending was slightly higher than a year ago.
Confidence in private s Businesses were less p Industries and Consum pessimistic.
More downward revis The consensus project 4.8%.
Employment and wea In December unemplo 0.62%, a very low rate major and emerging ec
Thailand’s per capita in 5,210 in 2012, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is mixed. pessimistic. However, mers were more
ions for 2014 growth. tion is between 3.0%Ͳ
alth distribution oyment rate increased to e compared to other conomies.
ncome was at USD 102nd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability Head line inflation increased to 1.96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. Producer Price Index decreased 1.1% from a year ago. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL ended 2013 lower than a year ago. Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. Higher deficit in the first month of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 46% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment turned positive in the first month of 2014, thanks to net service and transfer. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. THB appreciated against a basket of key currencies in February.
2
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
3
Slower growth in 4Q13 made 201
Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3%
CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 = 4.1%
4.6%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5%
-2.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
13 GDP growth of only 2.9%
7.8% 6.5% 5.4%
2.9%
0.1%
2.9% 2.7%
0.6%
3%
09 2010 2011 2012 2013
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Manufacturing’s slow down has d the most in 4Q13 Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 4Q13 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 0.56
GDP
9.1
Financial
6.98
Transport
5.42
Hotel&Res
4.37
RealEstate
3.71
Agriculture Other social
2.19
Trading
2.15 1.53
Health&Social
0.08
PublicAdmin -1.81
Education Private HH
-2.45
Mining
-2.61
Manufacture
-2.88
Utilities Fishing
-3.23 -5.24
Construction -7.73 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
dragged the overall GDP growth
13
Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 4Q13 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 0.56
GDP
0.69
Transport 0.38
Financial Agriculture
0.31
Trading
0.27
Hotel&Res
0.24 0.16
RealEstate Other social
0.05
Health&Social
0.02
PublicAdmin
0.00
Private HH
0.00
Education
-0.04
Mining
-0.06
Fishing
-0.08
Utilities
-0.11
Construction
-0.14
Manufacture
-1.13
5
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most sectors contributed positive for private household and fishing Chart 1.07a – Real growth by sector, 2013 YearͲonͲYear percentage change 2.9
GDP
12.1
Hotel&Res
10.2
Financial 7.9
Transport
7.0
Other social 4.6
RealEstate Trading
3.2
Agriculture
2.9
Health&Social
2.8 2.2
Mining Education
1.7
PublicAdmin
1.3
Construction
1.2
Utilities
0.9 0.1
Manufacture Private HH
-1.4
Fishing -6.7 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ely to total 2013 growth except g Chart 1.07b – Sectoral contributions, 2013 Contributions to total Real GDP growth 2.9
GDP 0.8
Transport Hotel&Res
0.5
Financial
0.5
Trading
0.4
Agriculture
0.2
RealEstate
0.2
Other social
0.2
Mining
0.0
Education
0.0
Health&Social
0.0
PublicAdmin
0.0
Utilities
0.0
Manufacture
0.0
Construction
0.0
Private HH Fishing
0.0 -0.1
6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Investment and Private consumpt contributed negatively to the ove
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 4Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
0.6
X (services)
8
M (services)
6.3
G
0.9
X (goods)
0.2
Discrpncy
-0.6
I
-2.7
C
-4.5
M (goods) I (capital)
-5.3 -11.3
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
tion were affected and erall growth in 4Q13
Q13 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 4Q13
.0
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
0.6
M (goods)
2.6
I (Inventory)
1.8
X (services)
1.3
X (goods)
0.1
G
0.1
Discrpncy
0.0
M (services)
-0.6
C
-2.3
I (capital)
-2.4
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
7 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourism was clearly the main driv
Chart 1.09a – Real growth by expenditure, 20 YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
2.9
X (services)
19.7
Discrpncy
12.9
M (services)
5.2
G
4.9
I
2.2
M (goods)
1.8
C
0.2
X (goods)
0.2
I (capital)
-1.9
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
ver for 2013 growth
013 Chart 1.09b – Expenditure Contributions, 2013 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
2.9
X (services)
3.0
I (Inventory)
1.0
G
0.5
X (goods)
0.1
C
0.1
Discrpncy
0.1
I (capital)
-0.4
M (services)
-0.5
M (goods)
-0.9
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
9
Manufacturing production contin
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
2.7%
194.2 174.8 152.1
182.6
161.1
170.0
177.7
138.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
nues its decline into 2014
Monthly Average 250.0
200.0
2013
181.6
175.8
150.0
100.0
2014
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.7% YͲoͲY Ͳ7.4%
50.0
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most sectors had their production
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector January 2014, percent 16.8
Metal products
11.1
Precision instru Tobacco
9.5
Electrical
8.6 6.8
Wood products
5.5
Paper Office automate
3.8
Chemical
2.7
Rubber&Plastic
2.2
Electronic
1.6
Mineral
0.0
Transport Equip
-0.3
Petroleum
-0.6
Apparel
-1.5
Textiles
-1.8
Machineries
-2.6 -9.0
Food & Bev
-12.0
Basic Mat
-14.9
Leather Furniture
-26.5
Vehicles -35.7 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
n increased from last month
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector January 2014, percent 13.1 -6.1 18.6 12.6 2.4 11.6 -8.8 15.7 11.8 3.0 10.3 8.8 -13.2 -1.3 0.5 24.9 5.1 3.0 -3.2 -5.7 -7.1
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Capacity utiliz
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70% 61.1%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
zation rate in January
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector January 2014, percent Electrical Chemical Machineries Petroleum Mineral Vehicles Transport Equip Paper Precision instru Metal products Rubber&Plastic Electronic Office automate Food & Bev Tobacco Basic Mat Textiles Apparel Leather Furniture Wood products
96% 90% 74% 74% 73% 73% 73% 71% 69% 65% 64% 62% 57% 54% 49% 47% 42% 38% 28% 27% 23%
12 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s MPI dropped the most Philippines and China enjoyed hig
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ Dec Vietnam Ͳ Feb Pakistan Ͳ Dec China Ͳ Dec Japan Ͳ Dec Malaysia Ͳ Dec
4.
Singapore Ͳ Jan
3.9
US Ͳ Jan
2.9
Australia Ͳ Q3
2.7
South Korea Ͳ Dec
2.6
Indonesia Ͳ Dec
0.6
Euro Area Ͳ Dec
0.5 -0.2
Russia Ͳ Jan India Ͳ Dec
-0.6
Hong Kong Ͳ Q3
-0.9 -1.8
Taiwan Ͳ Jan
-2.3
Brazil Ͳ Dec Thailand Ͳ Jan Source: The Economist
-7.4
t from a year ago, while ghest growth
x 26.5 15.2 13.2 9.7 7.1
8
13 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Agriculture production grew sligh
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)
CAGR
3.2% 122.5
100.0
105.9
112.8 112.0 109.4 111.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
htly from a year ago
Monthly Average 300.0
128.0 128.8
YͲoͲY 3.2%
250.0
MͲoͲM
200.0
Ͳ35.7%
150.0
2014
2013
100.0
50.0
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
15
Private consumption improved sl
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
2.5%
117.8
126.1 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2
139.2
127.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
ightly from last month
Index*
147.0 147.5
12-Avg 13-Avg
Monthly Average 150.0
149.0
2013 148.0
147.0
2014
146.0
MͲoͲM 0.3%
145.0
YͲoͲY Ͳ1.5%
144.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Vehicle consumption continues to
Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 1 month of 2014 vs 2012, percent Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
-2.2
Diesel (litre)
-4.7
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
-11.0
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour) Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$) Motocycle (Unit)
Commercial Car (Unit)
Passenger Car (Unit)-55.6 Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
-13.0
-29.8
-36.3
o decline into 2014
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Jan 2014 vs Dec 2013, percent 2.8
1.8
0.6
-2.4
-6.4
2.2
-9.0
-0.7
-16.1
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment continued to d
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
4.9% 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0
193.5
183.9 161.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
decline
240.8 240.1
12-Avg 13-Avg
Monthly Average 255.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.3%
250.0
245.0
2013
YͲoͲY Ͳ8.6%
240.0
235.0
230.0
2014
225.0
220.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most private investment expendi of 2014 Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 1 month of 2014 vs 2013, percent
3.5
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
Domestic commercial car -27.2 sales (unit)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
-1.5
-13.8
tures declined in the first month
Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Jan 2014 vs Dec 2013, percent
-1.3
-1.9
0.0
1.2
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
20% growth in FDI in 2013
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD
1 11,331 10,697 9,112
8,999
10FY
11FY
8,547
4,853
07FY
08FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
09FY
12FY
Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000
12,826
13FY
2013 12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Property indicators have largely g
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change Full year 2013 vs 2012, percent
25
Condo unit registered
16.5
Value of land transaction
New housing unit
Constr. Area in municipal-7.2
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
4.0
grown in 2013
5.1
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Dec vs Nov 2013, percent
-6.6
14.3
11.6
17.1
21 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
22
Improvement in trade balance is decrease Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB First 1 month of 2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht 800
600
400
2
2
200
0 +4.2%
-10.3%
-200
-400
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
more of the case of import
2013
Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD First 1 month of 2014 vs 2013, Billion USD 30 25 20 15
2014 10 5 0 -5
-2.0%
-10
Export
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
-15.5%
–
Import
=
Trade balance
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Export grew 4.2% in the first mon Other export
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 1 month of 2014 vs that of 2013, percent Total export ReͲexports Other export Electrical Machinery PetroͲchemical Electronics Forestry Jewellery Optical instru Other manufacturing Apparels Petroleum Photo instru Toiletries Agriculture Footware Furniture Agro products Chemicals Automotive Fishery Mining Aircrafts Metal
4.2 >1,000.0 634.5 20.2 18.3 12.8 9.2 8.3 6.6 6.4 5.3 4.7 3.4 2.8 2.0 1.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.9 -6.6 -6.8 -10.2 -16.2 -35.0
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
nth of 2014, thanks mainly to Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth Total export Other export Machinery Electronics Electrical PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Petroleum Apparels Jewellery Agriculture ReͲexports Optical instru Forestry Photo instru Toiletries Footware Furniture Agro products Chemicals Fishery Mining Aircrafts Automotive Metal
4.2 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -2.3
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Positive growth in all export mark
Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
6.9 (Trilli
5.2
6.1
6.7
7.1
Middle East
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
EU
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
Japan
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
12.2
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
17.4
18.1
16.7
18.4
18.1
East Asia exͲJapan
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.6
25.9
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
100% =
NAFTA Rest of the world
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
kets so far this year
ion)
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 1 month of 2014 vs those of 2013
Middle East
12.0%
11.1%
EU
8.2%
Japan
6.8%
NAFTA East Asia ex Japan
2.5%
ASEAN
1.0%
Rest of the world
0.7%
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Intermediate goods has gained m
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 4.6
Ѯ 5.9
Ѯ 7.0
Others
7.8
10.2
12.4
Capital goods
22.3
20.9
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
43.0
44.0
40.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
18.6
17.4
18.9
Consumer goods
8.3
7.5
7.5
09FY
10FY
11FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
21.3
more share this year
n
0
Ѯ 7.8
Ѯ 7.7
4
11.4
12.1
Y
Ѯ 0.7
(Trillion)
7.6 22.0
24.4
23.2
37.1 37.5
36.0
18.9
20.6
7.8
8.0
8.5
12FY
13FY
14/1MO
24.9
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Import has decreased 10% in the to the decrease in Others
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 1 month of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent
-10.3
Total import
21.6
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
-0.5
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-6.7
Consumer goods
-11.8
Capital goods
Others
-61.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
first month of 2014, due mainly
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
Total import
-10.3
4.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-0.2
Consumer goods
-0.5
-2.6
Capital goods
Others
-10.9
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Zero growth in Tourist arrivals in t
Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
10.6%
19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8
11.7
14.1
11.5
10.0
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY Source: Department of Tourism
the first month of 2014
Monthly cumulative 30.0
26.7 25.0
22.4
Y 12FY 13FY
2013 20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2014 J F M A M J J A S O N D
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Russian is by far the highest grow month of 2014 Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world Americas
Europe
East Asia
15.3 6.0
28.7
15.6 5.3
27.9
14.7
13.8
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.3
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
11.8 4.4
23.6
60.2
13FY
wth tourist nationality in the first
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 1 month of 2014 vs 2013, Thousands 48.8
Russia 12.4
Laos
10.0
Singapore United Kingdom
8.5
Vietnam
8.2 5.6
France USA S.Africa
4.2 2.7
Spain
1.9
Switzerland
1.6
29 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
30
No change in policy rate in Februa
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Mar-13
2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Feb-14
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Mar-13
0.00% Feb-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
ary
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% Feb-14
Mar-13
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Mar-13
anches
0.00% Feb-14
31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
1% increase in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2014 J
F
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
M
A
M
in the first 1 month of 2014
2013
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
32
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
33
Businesses were less pessimistic b pessimistic in January Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
50
47.5
47.5
47.4
46.9
45.0
45.4
Worse
0 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
but Industries were more
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
91.3
90.4
92.8
90.3
88.3
86.9
Worse
0 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Consumer confidence took a dive
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Sep-1
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior mo Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of th Source: Ministry of Commerce
e in January
On job
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 3
Nov-13
onth e prior month he prior month
Jan-14
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
36
More downward revisions for 201
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2013, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50 5.00 The Economist poll
4.50
BOT
4.00 3.50
NESDB *Actual
3.00
FPO
2.50 2.00
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
14 growth
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50 5.00
BOT NESDB FPO
4.50 4.00 3.50
The Economist poll
3.00 2.50 2.00
Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
Forecast as of, month ending 37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are emerging economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2013, Annual % change, as of Feb 28th 2014
7.7
China Philippines Pakistan Indonesia Vietnam India Malaysia Singapore Hong Kong Thailand South Korea Australia Brazil Taiwan US Japan Russia Euro Area -0.4
Source: The Economist
6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 3.7 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5
e quite low compared to other
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of Feb 28th 2014
7
7.2 6.7 3.9 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.1 4.0 3.7 3.0 3.3 2.7 1.7 3.2 2.9 1.6 2.9 1.0 38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
39
Unemployment rate decreased to
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.16
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
o 0.6% in December
Monthly Average 1.20
1.00
2013 0.80
0.60
0.40
0.68
2012
0.66
11-Avg 12-Avg
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
40 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Dec Singapore Ͳ Q4
0.6 1.8
Malaysia Ͳ Dec
3.0
Hong Kong Ͳ Jan
3.1
Vietnam Ͳ 2012
3.2
South Korea Ͳ Jan Japan Ͳ Dec
3.5 3.7
China Ͳ Q4
4.1
Taiwan Ͳ Jan
4.1
Brazil Ͳ Jan Russia Ͳ Jan Australia Ͳ Jan Pakistan Ͳ 2013 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 Philippines Ͳ Q4 US Ͳ Jan India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Dec Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
4.8 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.6 9.9 12.0
41 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
42
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
43
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
46
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 186,950
36,770
France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880 49
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th with higher GNI per capita than C
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550
hailand’s rank improved to 89th, China
es
8,710
30
0
( ) = World rank 84,670
Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370 50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
51
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
52
Both headline and core inflation i
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 2.50%
2.00%
Head line 1.50%
1.00%
Core*
0.50%
0.00% Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
increased slightly in February
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product February 2014, percent Meat
7.6
Veg & fruit
6.4
Eggs & milk
4.4
Tobacco & alcohol
4.3
Food away from home
3.7
Prepared food at home
3.3
Seasoning
3.3
Energy
1.7
Rice
1.6
Apparel and footware
0.9
Housing & furnishing
0.9
Non alcoholic beverage
0.8
Medical care
0.7
Recreation & Education
0.5
Transport & Commu
0.5
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
India Ͳ Jan Indonesia Ͳ Jan Pakistan Ͳ Jan 6.0
Russia Ͳ Jan
5.6
Brazil Ͳ Jan Vietnam Ͳ Feb
4.7
Hong Kong Ͳ Jan
4.6 4.2
Philippines Ͳ Jan 3.4
Malaysia Ͳ Jan 2.7
Australia Ͳ Q4
2.5
China Ͳ Jan
2.0
Thailand Ͳ Feb Japan Ͳ Jan
1.6
US Ͳ Jan
1.6 1.4
Singapore Ͳ Jan South Korea Ͳ Jan
1.1
Euro Area Ͳ Jan
0.8
Taiwan Ͳ Jan
0.8
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
he low side compared to other
2013* 8.8
10.1
8.2
7.0
7.9
7.7 6.8 6.2 6.6 4.3 2.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.2 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.3 1.4 0.8
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Inflation at producer level decrea
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5% Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
ased slightly and remained low
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product February 2014, percent Fishing Livestocks Petroluem products Energy Metal Wood NonͲmetallic mineral Leather & footware Chemical Transport equip Food Pulp & paper Textile Mechinery Forestry Crop Electrical equip Basic metals Other manu goods Rubber & plastic
28.0 11.4 10.4 7.0 3.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.8 -6.1 -9.5
55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
56
Bank’s loan continued its strong g Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Ju
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95%
93.1%
93.9%
9 93.4%
93.5%
93.3%
90% 85% Jan-13
Source: Bank of Thailand
Feb-13 Mar-13
Apr-13 May-13 J
growth while liquidity tightened
M-o-M +1.4% Y-o-Y +11.0%
un-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
it* ratio
95.3%
94.9%
Jun-13
Jul-13
95.7%
95.5%
Aug-13 Sep-13
95.0%
95.0%
96.6%
Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased slightly in 20 decreased as percent of total loan
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10YE
270
11Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
06YE
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
08YE
09YE
10YE
2.75
11Y
013 in absolute value but n
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
256
267
YE
12YE
13YE
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
2.26%
2.16%
12YE
13YE
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio decreased sha
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
16.1%
14.9% 13.4%
13.3%
1 14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
arply in December 2013
nks* Month End 17.0%
16.2%
16.5%
14.8% 16.0%
15.5%
2013
2012
15.0%
14.5%
14.0%
2011
anches
2012
13.5%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s real interest rate is slig Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Mar 1st 2014
3M riskͲfree interest rates 10.7
Brazil
10.1
Pakistan
9.2
India
8.0
Indonesia
7.4
Russia
6.8
Vietnam 5.5
China 3.3
Malaysia South Korea
2.7
Australia
2.6 2.0
Thailand Philippines Taiwan
1.2 0.9
Hong Kong
0.4
Singapore
0.3
Euro Area
0.3
US
0.2
Japan
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
ghtly negative
=
Expected 2013 inflation*
Real interest rates
6.2 2.4
7.7 -0.9 1.0
7.0
0.6
6.8
0.2
6.6
2.9
2.6 1.2
2.1
1.4
1.3
0.2
2.4 -0.2
2.2
-1.7
2.9
0.1
0.8 4.3 2.4
0.3
-3.9 -2.1
1.4
-1.1
1.4
-1.2 -0.2
60
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
SET rebounded in February despit Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end 6.9%
4.3%
4.0%
-1.9%
Sep-13
Oct-13
-5.0%
-5.3%
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 -30.0 -35.0 -40.0
D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
E
te further foreign sell out Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2012 Percent, as of Feb 26th 2014 50.8%
Pakistan (KSE)
44.0%
Japan (Nikkei 225)
42.1%
US (NAScomp) 29.4%
US (S&P 500)
26.9%
Germany (DAX)
23.6%
US (DJIA) France (CAC 40)
20.8%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
20.6% 16.8%
Australia (All Ord.)
15.3%
UK (FTSE 100)
11.7%
Taiwan (TWI) India (BSE)
8.0%
Malaysia (KLSE)
7.9% 5.0%
Indonesia (JSX) HK (Hang Seng)
-1.0%
S Korea (KOSPI)
-1.3%
Singapore (STI) Thailand (SET)
-2.5% -6.3%
China (SSEB, $ terms) -8.4% China (SSEA)-10.1%
61 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
62
Lower budget and cash deficit as
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
percentage of GDP in 2013
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
%
-0.9% -2.0% -2.3%
-2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY 63
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Higher deficit in the first month o period in 2013 Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1,751
Revenue 1,109
1,241
0
-36
Budget balance -1,109
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1
1,484
110
-75 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1,825
-1
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
of 2014, compared to the same
Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht)
,902
2,078
2,153
100.0
50.0
0.0
2014 -50.0
-28 -412
-271 -100.0
2013
-150.0
-200.0
1,930 -2,489
-2,424
-250.0
-300.0
1FY 12FY 13FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Smaller deficit in 2013
Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110
0
88
8
-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174
-3
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
plus)
-28 -75
-49
-71
-96
-236 -266
-271
364 -401
-412 -466
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
'14/1mo
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit in 2013 is
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2013*, percent Singapore Hong Kong South Korea Russia Philippines China Taiwan Thailand Euro Area Brazil Australia Indonesia US
-
Malaysia -5.0
India
-5.3
Vietnam Pakistan Japan
-8.0 -8.2
Note: (*) The Economist Poll, actual for Thailand
Source: The Economist, Bank of Thailand
quite low compared to others
ercentage of GDP 2.1 1.8 0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.9 -3.3 -3.3 -3.3 -4.1
-4.2
66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt as
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0
4.0
Public debt from State Enterprises
3.0 Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt 2.0
1.0 Direct Government debt 0.0 2009 10%
2010 8%
2011
2012
8%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
2013 7%
Ext as
s percentage of GDP in 2013
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30% 25%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2009
ternal debt percent of total
2010
2011
2012
2013
67 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2012 or latest 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 6 Lebanon 8 Italy 9 Portugal 10 Iceland 12 Ireland 14 Singapore 15 Belgium 18 France 19 United Kingdom 20 Egypt 21 Canada 22 Spain 25 Hungary 27 Germany 28 Sri Lanka 31 Malta 33 Israel 35 United States 37 Morocco 39 Netherlands 41 Croatia 43 Bhutan
219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
9
ta
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP 52 Bahrain 53 Malaysia 54 Brazil 58 Switzerland 60 India 61 Philippines 64 Venezuela 66 Vietnam 67 Laos 74 Denmark 76 Thailand 79 Czech Republic 81 South Africa 84 New Zealand 85 Argentina 87 Turkey 92 Taiwan 95 China 100 Mexico 106 Korea, South 109 Bangladesh 113 Hong Kong 119 Australia 121 Indonesia 139 Russia
56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11
68
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• Slower growth in 4Q13 made 2013 Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Ma growth the most in 4Q13 • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption is stable while • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Industries and consumers were mo • More downward revisions for 2014
• In December unemployment rate d countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation increased to 1.9 Producer Price Index decreased 1.1 • Banking system is quite stable. Ban ended 2013 lower than a year ago. • Higher deficit in the first month of increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive THB appreciated in February.
GDP growth of only 2.9% nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth in 4Q13 anufacturing’s slow down has dragged the overall GDP
es its decline into 2014 e Private Investment continued to slow down ecreased. No growth in tourist arrival n downward trend while Fiscal spending caught up ore pessimistic 4 growth. The consensus projection is between 3.0%Ͳ4.8%.
decreased to 0.62%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
96% while Core increased slightly to 1.22% in February. 1% from a year ago. nk’s capital ratio dropped but is still high. Total system’s NPL . Liquidity tightened as loan growth accelerated. 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous.
69
Positive Balance of Payment in th net service income and transfer
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.1
5.3 1.2
0.6
-5.0 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
13FY
14/1mo
he first month of 2014, thanks to Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
29.8
on
17.0 6.0
6.4 -0.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
14/1mo
Net service income & transfer 1.0
+
-10.7 -19.7 09FY
10FY
-12.9
11FY
-7.5
-9.1
12FY
13FY
14/1mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 21.3 6.7
2.2
-2.3
-2.9 09FY
10FY
11FY
0.4
12FY
13FY
14/1mo
70
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2013 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q4
10
Taiwan Ͳ Q4 Vietnam Ͳ 2012
5.8%
South Korea Ͳ Jan
5.5% 4.9%
Malaysia Ͳ Q4
3.1%
Philippines Ͳ Sep Russia Ͳ Q4
2.3%
Euro Area Ͳ Dec
2.0%
China Ͳ Q4
2.0%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q3
1.9% 0.9%
Japan Ͳ Dec Pakistan Ͳ Q4 Thailand Ͳ Q4 US Ͳ Q3
-1.4% -1.9% -2.4%
Australia Ͳ Q3
-3.0%
India Ͳ Q3
-3.1%
Brazil Ͳ Jan
-3.7%
Indonesia Ͳ Q4
-3.9%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 20.4%
54.4
0.8%
57.4 9.1 72.0 11.7 11.3 33.0 288.7 188.6 5.4 34.4 -4.0 -2.8 -398.7 -51.3 -76.9 -81.6 -28.5
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in a percentage of GDP Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
04YE
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.9%
04YE
37.0%
38.5%
05YE
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
08YE
bsolute value but decreased as
E
09YE
%
28.8%
E
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.8%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
38.8%
38.3%
12YE
13/3Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Structure of external debt does n year Chart 5.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
8%
92%
09YE
13%
15%
20%
20%
87%
85%
80%
80%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
Source: Bank of Thailand
ot change much from end of last
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
56%
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
45%
46%
44%
55%
54%
56%
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340%
330%
312% 280%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/3Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
8.2% 7.6%
4.7%
4.2% 3.7%
3.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/3Q
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves decrea still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
154.1 55.9
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
2009
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
13.8 9.1 5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
2009
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
ased slightly so far this year but
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
190.2
188.9
2013
Jan-14
9.1
9.2
2013
Jan-14
1
9
2010
er of months of import**
8
12.6 10.8
9
2010
the last 12 months
2011
9.9
2012
75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated slightly against k
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
114.0
Baht appreciates MͲoͲM
112.0
110.0
0.6%
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
Ͳ5.2%
Baht depreciates Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
98.0
96.0 Feb-14
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
key currencies in February
e
0
0
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of Feb 28th 2014 IDR Ͳ 3.0084
8.6
INR Ͳ 0.5613
5.2
AUD Ͳ 29.505
4.7
JPY Ͳ 32.3038
0.8
0
PHP Ͳ 0.7445
0
MYR Ͳ 10.1046
0
MXN Ͳ 2.4697
0
SGD Ͳ 26.0028
-6.3
TWD Ͳ 1.0799
-6.5
0.0 -3.0 -5.0
USD Ͳ 32.7528
-8.6
CNY Ͳ 5.3759
-9.5
KRW Ͳ 0.0306
-9.8
EUR Ͳ 44.9837
-12.3
VND Ͳ 0.0016
-12.5
GBP Ͳ 54.7602 -16.9 Baht depreciates
Baht appreciates 76
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com