MONTHLY ECONOMIC
June 2014 issue
Executive summary Growth The Thai Economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014. On the expenditure side, Investment and Private consumption were affected and contributed negatively to the overall growth. On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth In April, Manufacturing production dropped again, while Agriculture production increased impressively. On the expenditure side, Private consumption improved from last month while Private Investment continued to decline. FDI increased impressively but BOI net application dropped. Export grew 7.9% in THB term but decreased in USD term. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals dropped 5%. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate unchanged at 2%. Government spending was limited due to political situation.
Confidence in private s Businesses and Indust pessimistic. Consumer
More downward revis The consensus project 2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ
Employment and wea In April, unemploymen 0.88%, a very low rate major and emerging ec
Thailand’s per capita in 5,210 in 2012, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is mixed. ries were more rs were less pessimistic.
Stability Head line inflation increased to 2.62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer Price inflation decreased to 1.2%.
ions for 2014 growth. tion is between 2.0%Ͳ Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity tightened slightly as loan expanded.
alth distribution nt rate increased to e compared to other conomies.
Higher deficit in the first 4 months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 46% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based.
ncome was at USD 102nd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Balance of Payment turned positive in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. External debt increased slightly but capability to repay is not a concern as debt service ratio remained low and international reserves is at healthy level. THB appreciated 0.8% in May.
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
3
Economic contraction in the first
Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent
7.1% 6.3% 5.3%
CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 = 4.1%
4.6%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5%
-2.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
quarter of 2014
7.8% 6.5%
2.9%
0.1% -0.6%
3%
09 2010 2011 2012 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
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Contraction in Manufacturing and overall GDP growth the most in 1 Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 1Q14 YearͲonͲYear percentage change GDP
-0.6
Financial
6.6
PublicAdmin
6.6
Education
5.7
Transport
3.7
Health&Social
2.2
Agriculture
1.3
Other social
1.3
RealEstate
-0.3
Trading
-0.5
Mining
-1.2
Fishing
-2.4
Private HH
-2.5
Manufacture
-2.7
Utilities
-3.1
Hotel&Res
-3.1
Construction
-12.4
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
d Construction has dragged the Q14 Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 1Q14 Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
-0.6
Transport
0.4
Financial
0.3
PublicAdmin
0.2
Education
0.1
Agriculture
0.1
Other social
0.0
Health&Social
0.0
Private HH
0.0
RealEstate
0.0
Mining
0.0
Fishing
0.0
Trading
-0.1
Utilities
-0.1
Hotel&Res
-0.1
Construction Manufacture
-0.3 -1.0
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Investment and Private consumpt contributed negatively to the ove
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 1Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change M (services)
11.2
G
2.9
X (goods)
0.8
GDP
-0.6
C
-3.0
X (services)
-4.2
I (capital)
-9.8
M (goods) I
-12.0 -17.4
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
tion were affected and erall growth in 1Q14
Q14 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 1Q14
2
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
-0.6
M (goods)
5.9
X (goods)
0.4
Discrpncy
0.3
G
0.3
X (services)
-0.8
M (services)
-1.0
C
-1.5
I (Inventory)
-2.1
I (capital)
-2.1
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
7
Manufacturing production dropp
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
2.7%
194.2 174.8
182.6
161.1
170.0
177.7
152.1 138.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
ed again in April
Monthly Average 250.0
200.0
2013
181.6
175.8
150.0
100.0
2014
MͲoͲM Ͳ12.3% YͲoͲY Ͳ3.9%
50.0
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Most sectors had their production last month
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector April 2014, percent Precision instru
36.0
Tobacco
16.7
Metal products
8.0
Electronic
8.0
Apparel
6.4
Wood products
6.1
Basic Mat
3.6
Furniture
3.5
Paper
2.9
Electrical
2.8
Chemical
1.8
Leather
1.3
Textiles
-0.3
Rubber&Plastic
-0.4
Machineries
-0.5
Office automate
-0.9
Petroleum
-1.7
Mineral
-4.3
Food & Bev
-6.9
Transport Equip Vehicles
-11.8 -24.7
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
n decreased substantially from
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector April 2014, percent -1.5 3.5 -18.9 0.5 -18.9 -16.1 -13.9 1.0 -4.2 -8.1 -4.9 -10.0 -12.4 -18.4 -5.8 -3.9 4.8 -15.0 -26.8 -13.8 -27.5
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A big drop in Capacity utilization
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70% 56.6%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
rate in April
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector April 2014, percent Chemical Petroleum Electrical Machineries Precision instru Paper Electronic Mineral Vehicles Transport Equip Rubber&Plastic Metal products Office automate Tobacco Basic Mat Food & Bev Textiles Apparel Leather Furniture Wood products
82% 75% 74% 74% 70% 69% 68% 67% 62% 61% 56% 55% 53% 48% 47% 46% 39% 34% 29% 26% 22%
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Thailand’s MPI dropped the most enjoyed highest growth
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago China Ͳ Apr Japan Ͳ Mar Vietnam Ͳ May Indonesia Ͳ Mar Taiwan Ͳ Apr Singapore Ͳ Apr Malaysia Ͳ Mar US Ͳ Apr Australia Ͳ Q4 South Korea Ͳ Mar Russia Ͳ Apr Hong Kong Ͳ Q4 Euro Area Ͳ Apr
-0.1
India Ͳ Mar
-0.5
Brazil Ͳ Mar
-1.0
Philippines Ͳ Mar
-1.1
Pakistan Ͳ Mar Thailand Ͳ Apr Source: The Economist
-2.6 -3.9
t from a year ago, while China
x 8.7 7.4 5.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 0.5
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Agriculture production grew heal
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)
CAGR
3.2% 122.5 105.9
112.8 112.0 109.4 111.2
100.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
thily from a year ago
Monthly Average 250.0
128.0 128.8
YͲoͲY 5.6%
200.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ3.3% 150.0
2014 2013 100.0
50.0
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
13
Private consumption bounced fro year’s level
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
2.5%
117.8
126.1 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2
139.2
127.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
om last month but still lagged last
Index*
147.0 147.5
12-Avg 13-Avg
Monthly Average 150.0
149.0
2013
148.0
147.0
2014 146.0
145.0
144.0
MͲoͲM 0.2% YͲoͲY Ͳ0.8%
143.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Vehicle consumption expenditure far this year Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 4 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent NGV (kg.)* LPG (litre)*
1
Diesel (litre)
0
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
0
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
-0.6
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
-4.6
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
-6.5
Motocycle (Unit) Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit) -50.9 Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
-22.0 -35.5
es were the biggest decliners so
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change Apr vs Mar 2014, percent 5.3
3.3 0.6
1.4
1.3
0.2
0.2
-2.3 -0.7 1.5 3.3 -3.3 -0.2 9.4
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Private Investment on decline
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
4.9%
209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0
193.5
183.9 161.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
Monthly Average 260.0 255.0
MͲoͲM Ͳ0.2%
250.0
240.8 240.1
12-Avg 13-Avg
245.0
2013
YͲoͲY Ͳ4.7%
240.0 235.0 230.0
2014 225.0 220.0 215.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Commercial car sales took the big
Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 4 month of 2014 vs 2013, percent
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
2.1
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
1.1
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
Domestic commercial car -32.7 sales (unit)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
0.0
-9.8
ggest hit so far this year
Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change Apr vs Mar 2014, percent
1.0
-0.7
0.8
-0.2
-3.1
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong growth in FDI so far in 201
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD
1 11,331 10,699 9,112 8,547
4,853 3,861
07FY
08FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
14
Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000
12,995
13FY
12,000
2013 10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2014 2,000
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
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BOI’s net application decreased 2 2014
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht 648
396 351
236
09FY
10FY
11FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
12FY
2% during the first 4 months of
irect investment*
525
13FY
224
220
2013/4M
2014/4M
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
FDI from Japan, the biggest sourc years
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* break Percent of total
Others
23%
27%
USA ANIEs ASEAN
3% 6% 6%
2% 7%
Europe
17%
Japan
44%
8%
10FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis
7%
49%
11FY
ce, has been declining in recent
kdown by country group
11% 4% 10% 7% 10%
11% 21% 2% 6%
19%
10%
8% 2%
7%
29%
58%
54% 31%
12FY
13FY
2014/4M 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most of Property indicators have
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 3 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent
Condo unit registered
15
Constr. Area in municipal
4.4
New housing unit
Value of land transaction
2.4
-10.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
increased so far in 2014
5.1
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Mar vs Feb 2014, percent
-33.9
3.0
-10.3
26.9
21 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
22
Improvement in trade balance is
Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB First 4 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500
2
2
1,000 500 0 +7.9%
-7.8%
-500 -1,000
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
more of the case of weaker THB
Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD First 4 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion USD 100
80
60
2013
2014 40
20
0 -15.2%
-1.0% -20
Export
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
–
Import
=
Trade balance
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Export grew 7.9% in the first 4 mo machinery and automotive
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 4 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent Total export ReͲexports Other export Machinery Other manufacturing Electrical PetroͲchemical Optical instru Jewellery Automotive Furniture Apparels Electronics Footware Agriculture Forestry Toiletries Fishery Chemicals Agro products Petroleum -6.7 Aircrafts -9.5 Photo instru -11.1 Metal -20.7 Mining-32.8
7.9 >1,000.0 >100.0 21.3 19.3 17.0 16.7 13.2 13.2 11.5 8.7 8.2 7.3 6.1 5.7 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.0 0.2
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
onths of 2014, thanks mainly to Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth Total export Machinery Automotive Other export Electronics Electrical PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Agriculture Jewellery Apparels Optical instru ReͲexports Chemicals Toiletries Furniture Forestry Agro products Fishery Footware Photo instru Aircrafts Mining Petroleum Metal
7.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -1.2
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Positive growth in all export mark
Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term 5.2
6.1
6.7
7.1
Middle East
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
EU
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
Japan
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
NAFTA
12.2
17.4
18.1
16.7
18.4
18.1
East Asia exͲJapan
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.6
25.9
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
100% =
Rest of the world
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
6.9 (Trilli
kets so far this year
ion)
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 4 months of 2014 vs those of 2013
Middle East
16.4%
EU
14.7%
Rest of the world
9.5%
Japan
9.5%
NAFTA East Asia ex Japan ASEAN
9.1%
4.6%
4.0%
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Import has decreased 8% so far in decrease in Others
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 4 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent
Total import
-7.8
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
7.3
Consumer goods
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
Capital goods
Others -54.1
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
2.6
-0.6
-4.2
n 2014, due mainly to the
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
Total import
-7.8
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
1.4
Consumer goods
0.2
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-0.2
Capital goods
Others
-1.0
-8.3
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals dropped 5% in the compared to the same period last Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
10.6%
19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8
11.7
14.1
11.5
10.0
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY
Source: Department of Tourism
e first 4 months of this year t year
Monthly cumulative 30.0
26.7 25.0
22.4
Y 12FY 13FY
2013 20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
2014 0.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Laos and Russia were the two hig so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world Americas
Europe
East Asia
15.3 6.0
28.7
15.6 5.3
27.9
14.7
13.8
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.3
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
11.8 4.4
23.6
60.2
13FY
ghest growing market for tourists
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 4 month of 2014 vs 2013, Thousands Laos
128.8
Russia
90.3
France
20.2
United Kingdom
18.6
Finland Italy
12.1 9.4
Switzerland
5.8
Brazil
5.1
S.Africa
5.1
Spain
4.5
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
29
No change in policy interest rate i
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Jun-13
2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% May-14
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Jun-13
0.00% May-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
in May
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% May-14
Jun-13
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Jun-13
anches
0.00% May-14
30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
4% decrease in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2014
0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in the first 4 months of 2014
2013
J
A
S
O
N
D
31
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
32
Worsening business confidence
Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
50
46.9
45.0
45.4
46.5
49.4 44.3
Worse
0 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
90.3
88.3
86.9
85.7
84.7
84.0
Worse
0 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
33 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Improving consumer confidence
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Dec-1
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior mo Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of th Source: Ministry of Commerce
On job
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 3
Feb-14
onth e prior month he prior month
Apr-14
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
35
NESDB revised down its projectio
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50
BOT
5.00 4.50
FPO
4.00
NESDB 3.50 3.00 The Economist poll
2.50 2.00 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
on for 2014 growth substantially
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2015, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50
BOT
5.00 4.50
The Economist poll
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Forecast as of, month ending 36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth projections are emerging economies
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of May 31st 2014 China Philippines Vietnam India Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Pakistan South Korea Hong Kong
7.3 6.8 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7
Taiwan Australia US Thailand Brazil Japan Euro Area Russia
Source: The Economist
2.6 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.5
e quite low compared to other
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2015, Annual % change, as of May 31st 2014 7.0 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.5 4.4 3.7 4.0 2.4 3.2 2.8 3.0 4.4 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
38
Unemployment rate increased sli
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.07 1.83
1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
0.68
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
ghtly to 0.9% in April
Monthly Average 1.00
2014 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60
2013
0.50 0.40 0.30
0.66
0.72
12-Avg 13-Avg
0.20 0.10 0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Apr Singapore Ͳ Q1
0.9 2.1
Malaysia Ͳ Mar
3.0
Hong Kong Ͳ Apr
3.1
Vietnam Ͳ 2013
3.6
Japan Ͳ Mar
3.6
South Korea Ͳ Apr
3.9
Taiwan Ͳ Apr
4.0
China Ͳ Q1
4.1
Brazil Ͳ Apr Russia Ͳ Apr Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Australia Ͳ Apr Pakistan Ͳ 2013 US Ͳ Apr Philippines Ͳ Q1 India Ͳ 2012 Euro Area Ͳ Mar Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
4.9 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.3 7.5 9.9 11.8
40 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
41
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
42
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 43
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
45
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
46
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India Lao PDR
6
Pakistan
60.2
Nepal
57.3
Cambodia
53.3
Indonesia
46.1
Vietnam
43.4
Philippines
41.5
South Africa
31.3
China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
Egypt, Arab Rep.
15.4
Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7
Brazil
10.8
Iran, Islamic Rep.
8.0
Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 186,950
36,770
France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880 48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th with higher GNI per capita than C
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550
hailand’s rank improved to 89th, China
es
8,710
30
0
( ) = World rank 84,670
Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370 49
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Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
23,236
14,963
2004
2009
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
17,403
12,297
2004
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
51
Both headline and core inflation i
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 3.00%
Head line 2.50%
2.00%
Core* 1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00% Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
increased slightly in May
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product May 2014, percent Meat
8.0
Tobacco & alcohol
6.2
Energy
6.2
Food away from home
5.8
Seasoning
5.2
Prepared food at home
5.1
Eggs & milk
2.3
Transport & Commu
1.9
Housing & furnishing
1.7
Rice
1.6
Medical care
1.0
Non alcoholic beverage
0.9
Apparel and footware
0.7
Recreation & Education
0.7
Veg & fruit
0.0
52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
Pakistan Ͳ Apr India Ͳ Apr Indonesia Ͳ Apr
7
Russia Ͳ Apr
7
Brazil Ͳ Apr
6.3
Vietnam Ͳ May
4.7
Philippines Ͳ Apr
4.1
Hong Kong Ͳ Apr
3.6
Malaysia Ͳ Apr
3.4
Australia Ͳ Q1
2.9
Thailand Ͳ May
2.6
Singapore Ͳ Apr
2.5
US Ͳ Apr
2.0
China Ͳ Apr
1.8
Taiwan Ͳ Apr
1.6
Japan Ͳ Mar
1.6
South Korea Ͳ Apr
1.5
Euro Area Ͳ Apr Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
0.7
he low side compared to other
2014* 9.2
7.6
8.6
8.0
.3
6.9
.3
6.0 6.2 6.7 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.7 2.5 1.0 2.6 1.6 0.9
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Inflation at producer level decrea
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
ased slightly and remained low
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product May 2014, percent Petroluem products Energy Fishing Livestocks Metal Chemical Mechinery Leather & footware Wood NonͲmetallic mineral Textile Basic metals Transport equip Other manu goods Pulp & paper Forestry Food -0.1 Electrical equip -0.3 Crop -5.0 Rubber & plastic-8.3
15.0 13.9 8.1 4.9 3.0 2.6 2.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
55
Credit market is still growing but Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Se
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100%
95%
95.3%
94.9%
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
93.5%
95.7%
9
93.3%
90%
85%
Source: Bank of Thailand
Aug-13 S
the pace has slowed down
M-o-M +0.4% Y-o-Y +9.4%
ep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
96.6%
96.0%
Feb-14
Mar-14
it* ratio
95.5%
95.0%
Sep-13
Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
95.0%
95.0%
95.9%
Feb-14 Mar-14
56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased slightly in 14 percent of total loan
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
445
458
401
380 317
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
10YE
270
11Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
06YE
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
08YE
09YE
10YE
2.75
11Y
4/Q1 in absolute value and
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
256
267
281
YE
12YE
13YE
14/Q1
14/Q2
14/Q3
14/Q2
14/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
2.26%
2.16%
2.26%
12YE
13YE
14/Q1
57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio increased to 1
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8%
1
16.1%
14.9%
14.8% 14.0%
13.9% 13.3% 12.4%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
15.5% in March
nks* Month End 16.8%
16.2%
16.6%
15.7% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0%
2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%
2014
15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 2012
anches
2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s real interest rate is slig Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of May 31st 2014
3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil
10.9
Pakistan
10.2
Russia
9.6
India
8.6
Indonesia
8.2
Vietnam
6.0
China
4.9
Malaysia
3.4
South Korea
2.7
Australia
2.6
Thailand Philippines Taiwan
1.7 1.2 0.9
Hong Kong
0.4
Euro Area
0.3
Singapore
0.3
US
0.2
Japan
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
ghtly negative
=
Expected 2014 inflation*
Real interest rates
6.2 2.6
7.6
3.6
6.0 0.6
8.0
1.3
6.9 -0.7
6.7
2.4
2.5 0.2
3.2
1.1
1.6 -0.3
2.8
-1.0
2.7 4.0
-2.8 -0.1
1.0 3.6
-3.2 -0.6
0.9 2.2
-1.9 -1.5
1.7 2.6
-2.5
59
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SET almost unchanged in May am one month after the coup Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end 4.0%
3.8%
2.8% 0.1%
-1.9% -5.3%
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
E
mid the heaviest foreign sell out in Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2013 Percent, as of May 28th 2014 Indonesia (JSX)
16.6%
India (BSE)
16.0%
Pakistan (KSE)
14.8%
Thailand (SET)
8.0%
Taiwan (TWI)
5.9%
France (CAC 40)
5.5%
Germany (DAX)
4.1%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
4.0%
Singapore (STI)
3.3%
US (S&P 500)
3.3%
Australia (All Ord.)
2.9%
UK (FTSE 100)
1.5%
US (NAScomp)
1.2%
Malaysia (KLSE)
0.3%
US (DJIA)
0.3%
S Korea (KOSPI)
0.3%
HK (Hang Seng)
-1.0%
China (SSEA) China (SSEB, $ terms) Japan (Nikkei 225)
-3.1% -7.5% -9.9%
60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
61
Lower budget and cash deficit as
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
percentage of GDP in 2013
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
%
-0.9%
-2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY 62
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Slightly higher deficit in the first 4 the same period in 2013 Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
Revenue 1,109
1,751 1,241
0
-36
Budget balance
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
1
1,484
110 -75 -364
-1,109 -1,277
-1,280 -1,629
Expenditure
-1,598 -1,849
-1,825
-1
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
4 months of 2014, compared to
Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht) 2,078
2,153
100.0
,902 50.0
0.0
2014 -50.0
-28 -412
-271 -100.0
2013 -150.0
-200.0
1,930 -2,489
-2,424
-250.0
-300.0
1FY 12FY 13FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
NonͲbudgetary deficit so far in 20
Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110 88
0
8
-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174
-3
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
014
plus)
-28 -75 -96 -167 -236 -266
-240
-271
364 -401
-412 -466
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
'14/4mo
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit is expecte same as Indonesia
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2014*, percent Hong Kong South Korea Singapore Russia Philippines Australia Taiwan China Indonesia Thailand Euro Area US Brazil Malaysia Vietnam India
-5
Pakistan Japan
-6.3 -8.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist, Bank of Thailand
ed to be around 2.3% of GDP,
ercentage of GDP 1.3 1.2 0.7 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -2.9 -4.0 -4.0 -4.4 .2
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt in
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 4.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
3.0
2.0
Direct Government debt
1.0
0.0 2010 10%
2011
2012
2013
Mar-14
8%
8%
7%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
Ext as
absolute term so far in 2014
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
25% 20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2010
ternal debt percent of total
2011
2012
2013
Mar-14
66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2013 est. 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania
22 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
26
ta
48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia
59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP
67
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production continue • Private consumption improved from • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
Income distribution
• In April, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
Stability
• Head line inflation increased to 2.6 Price inflation decreased to 1.2%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 4 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment turned positive External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
es its decline into 2014 m last month while Private Investment continued to decline ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while consumers were less pessimistic en 2.0%Ͳ2.7% for 2014 and 4.4Ͳ4.8% for 2015.
ased to 0.9%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
62% while Core increased slightly to 1.75% in May. Producer
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. e in the first 4 months of 2014, thanks to trade surplus. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in May.
68
Balance of Payment turned positi thanks to trade surplus
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.1
5.3 1.2
0.6
-5.0 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
13FY
14/4mo
ive in the first 4 months of 2014, Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
on
29.8 17.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
6.0
6.4
7.1
12FY
13FY
14/4mo
Net service income & transfer 0.5
+
-10.7
-12.9
-7.5
-9.1
12FY
13FY
-19.7 09FY
10FY
11FY
14/4mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 21.3 6.7
2.2
-2.3
-2.9 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
-6.9 14/4mo
69
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Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2014 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q1 Taiwan Ͳ Q1
1
Vietnam Ͳ 2012
5.3%
Malaysia Ͳ Q4
5.3%
South Korea Ͳ Apr
4.2%
Hong Kong Ͳ Q4
3.4%
Philippines Ͳ Dec
2.8%
Thailand Ͳ Q1
2.6%
Euro Area Ͳ Mar
2.3%
China Ͳ Q4
1.8%
Russia Ͳ Q1
1.3%
Japan Ͳ Mar
0.4%
Pakistan Ͳ Q1
-1.9%
US Ͳ Q4
-2.2%
India Ͳ Q1
-2.6%
Australia Ͳ Q4
-2.8%
Indonesia Ͳ Q1
-3.5%
Brazil Ͳ Apr
-3.6%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.4%
56.3
11.3%
61.9 9.1 11.7 87.1 5.1 9.4 4.9 323.3 188.6 36.1 8.9 -3.3 -379.3 -32.4 -44.2 -27.3 -81.6
70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt level increased in a percentage of GDP Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
04YE
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
40.9%
04YE
37.0%
05YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
38.5%
06YE
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
08YE
bsolute value but decreased as
E
09YE
%
28.8%
E
09YE
10YE
11YE
35.2%
33.8%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/4Q
38.8%
38.2%
12YE
13/4Q
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Structure of external debt does n year Chart 5.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
8%
92%
09YE
13%
15%
20%
18%
87%
85%
80%
82%
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/4Q
Source: Bank of Thailand
ot change much from end of last
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
44%
56%
09YE
50%
50%
10YE
45%
46%
43%
55%
54%
57%
11YE
12YE
13/4Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340%
330%
312% 279%
08YE
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
13/4Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
8.2% 7.6%
4.7% 4.2%
3.9%
3.4%
08FY
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13/4Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves increas still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
154.1 55.9
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
2009
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
13.8 9.1 5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
2009
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
sed slightly so far this year and
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
190.2
192.1
2013
Apr-14
9.1
9.7
2013
Apr-14
1
9
2010
er of months of import**
8
12.6 10.8
9
2010
the last 12 months
2011
9.9
2012
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated slightly against k
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
110.0
Baht appreciates MͲoͲM
+0.8%
108.0
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
Ͳ5.6%
Baht depreciates May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
98.0
96.0 May-14
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
key currencies in May
e
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of May 31st 2014 IDR Ͳ 3.0351
6.7
INR Ͳ 0.5906
-3.3
0
MYR Ͳ 10.3668
0
AUD Ͳ 30.8231
-4.6
0
PHP Ͳ 0.7619
-4.9
0
0
-3.9
CNY Ͳ 5.321
-6.4
JPY Ͳ 32.5674
-7.4
MXN Ͳ 2.5646
-7.7
TWD Ͳ 1.0984
-8.0
USD Ͳ 32.931
-8.0
SGD Ͳ 26.3818
-8.4
EUR Ͳ 44.9156 VND Ͳ 0.0016
-11.8 -12.5
GBP Ͳ 55.2091 -16.3 KRW Ͳ 0.0323 -17.0 Baht depreciates
Baht appreciates 75
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