MONTHLY ECONOMIC
July 2014 issue
Executive summary Growth The Thai Economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014. On the expenditure side, Investment and Private consumption were affected and contributed negatively to the overall growth. On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth In May, Manufacturing production picked up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago, while Agriculture production increased impressively. On the expenditure side, Private consumption and Private Investment improved slightly from last month. FDI value was unchanged but BOI net application dropped. Export grew 8% in THB term but decreased in USD term. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals dropped 6%. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate unchanged at 2%. Government spending was limited due to political situation.
Confidence in private s Businesses and Indust pessimistic. Consumer pessimistic.
More downward revis The consensus project 2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ
Employment and wea In May, unemploymen 0.94%, a very low rate major and emerging ec
Thailand’s per capita in 5,210 in 2012, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is mixed. ries were less rs were more
Stability Head line inflation dropped to 2.35% while Core dropped slightly to 1.71% in June. Producer Price inflation increased slightly to 1.3%.
ions for 2014 growth. tion is between 1.5%Ͳ Ͳ5.5% for 2015.
Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity tightened slightly as loan expanded.
alth distribution nt rate increased to e compared to other conomies.
Higher deficit in the first 5 months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 46% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based.
ncome was at USD 102nd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Indian. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Balance of Payment went negative in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
2
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
3
Economic contraction in the first
Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3%
CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 = 4.1%
4.6%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5%
-2.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
quarter of 2014
7.8% 6.5%
2.9%
0.1% -0.6%
3%
09 2010 2011 2012 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
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Contraction in Manufacturing and overall GDP growth the most in 1 Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 1Q14 YearͲonͲYear percentage change -0.6
GDP Financial
6.6
PublicAdmin
6.6 5.7
Education
3.7
Transport
2.2
Health&Social Agriculture
1.3
Other social
1.3
RealEstate
-0.3
Trading
-0.5 -1.2
Mining Fishing
-2.4
Private HH
-2.5
Manufacture
-2.7
Utilities
-3.1
Hotel&Res
-3.1
Construction
-12.4
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
d Construction has dragged the Q14 Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 1Q14 Contributions to total Real GDP growth -0.6
GDP
0.4
Transport
0.3
Financial
0.2
PublicAdmin
0.1
Education
0.1
Agriculture Other social
0.0
Health&Social
0.0
Private HH
0.0
RealEstate
0.0
Mining
0.0
Fishing
0.0 -0.1
Trading
-0.1
Utilities
-0.1
Hotel&Res
-0.3
Construction Manufacture
-1.0 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Investment and Private consumpt contributed negatively to the ove
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 1Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change M (services)
11.2
G
2.9
X (goods)
0.8
GDP
-0.6
C
-3.0
X (services)
-4.2
I (capital)
-9.8
M (goods) I
-12.0 -17.4
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
tion were affected and erall growth in 1Q14
Q14 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 1Q14
2
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
-0.6
M (goods)
5.9
X (goods)
0.4
Discrpncy
0.3
G
0.3
X (services)
-0.8
M (services)
-1.0
C
-1.5
I (Inventory)
-2.1
I (capital)
-2.1
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
7
Manufacturing production picked lagged behind a year ago
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
2.7%
194.2 174.8 152.1
182.6
161.1
170.0
177.7
138.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
d up from last month but still
Monthly Average 250.0
200.0
2013
181.6
175.8
150.0
100.0
2014
M-o-M
+10%
Y-o-Y
50.0
-4.1%
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Most sectors had their production last month
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector May 2014, percent
29
Precision instru Basic Mat
13.1
Office automate
12.6 10.2
Wood products
8.3
Electronic Rubber&Plastic
6.8
Petroleum
5.7
Leather
4.3
Chemical
4.0
Paper
4.0
Tobacco
3.4
Apparel
2.9 0.1
Metal products Food & Bev
-3.4
Mineral
-3.5 -4.9
Textiles
-7.9
Machineries Electrical
-16.5
Transport Equip
-17.5
Furniture
-27.2
Vehicles -35.2 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
n increased substantially from
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector May 2014, percent
9.2
13.0 19.7 16.4 7.9 0.5 17.3 -6.0 10.4 6.5 8.3 1.3 17.4 17.8 7.5 12.4 7.0 7.8 -0.4 12.4 4.3 18.6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capacity utilization rate bounced seasonal factor Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70%
Seasonally adjusted
60% Normal
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
4
back in May due mostly to
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector May 2014, percent Rubber&Plastic Metal products Electrical Basic Mat Textiles Furniture Wood products Chemical Electronic Precision instru Leather Office automate Mineral Food & Bev Paper Vehicles Transport Equip Petroleum Machineries Tobacco Apparel
89% 80% 78% 75% 75% 74% 73% 70% 70% 67% 66% 63% 62% 61% 54% 49% 49% 40% 40% 32% 26%
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Thailand’s MPI dropped the secon Philippines enjoyed highest grow
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ Apr China Ͳ May Vietnam Ͳ May Australia Ͳ Q1 Taiwan Ͳ May US Ͳ May Malaysia Ͳ Apr Japan Ͳ Apr India Ͳ Apr Russia Ͳ May Pakistan Ͳ Apr Indonesia Ͳ Apr South Korea Ͳ Apr Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 Euro Area Ͳ Apr -2.4
Singapore Ͳ May -4.1
Thailand Ͳ May Brazil Ͳ Apr Source: The Economist
-5.8
nd most from a year ago, while wth
x 12.7 8.8 5.9 5.7 5.2 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.4
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Agriculture production grew heal ago Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)
CAGR
3.2% 122.5
100.0
105.9
112.8 112.0 109.4 111.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
thily from last month and a year
Monthly Average 250.0 Y-o-Y
128.0 128.8
+6.9% 200.0
M-o-M
+7.5% 150.0
2014 2013 100.0
50.0
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
nd Cooperatives
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
13
Private consumption bounced fro year’s level
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
2.5%
117.8
126.1 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2
139.2
127.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
om last month but still lagged last
Index*
147.0 147.5
12-Avg 13-Avg
Monthly Average 150.0
149.0
148.0
2013 147.0
2014 146.0 M-o-M
145.0
+0.5%
144.0
Y-o-Y
-0.3%
143.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Vehicle consumption expenditure far this year Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 5 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent NGV (kg.)* LPG (litre)*
1
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
0
Diesel (litre)
-0.3
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
-1.2
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
-2.6
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
-6.3 -21.0
Motocycle (Unit) -34.8
Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)
-49.7
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
es were the biggest decliners so
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change May vs Apr 2014, percent 4.7
-2.4 -0.7
1.1
3.9
0.3 -0.6 -1.8
5.8 -2.8 1.9 -1.9 -17.0 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment started to pick
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
4.9% 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0
193.5
183.9 161.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
k up again in May
Monthly Average 260.0 255.0 250.0
240.8 240.1
12-Avg 13-Avg
245.0
2013
240.0 235.0 230.0
M-o-M
2014
+0.6%
225.0 Y-o-Y
220.0
-4.8%
215.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Commercial car sales took the big
Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 5 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
1.6
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
1.5
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
Domestic commercial car -32.9 sales (unit)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
-0.2
-8.0
ggest hit so far this year
Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change May vs Apr 2014, percent
-1.4
-0.4
-2.1
3.2
-1.7
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Unchanged in FDI value in the firs
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD
1 11,331 10,699 9,112 8,547
4,853 3,861
07FY
08FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
st 4 months
Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000
12,807
13FY
12,000
2013 10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2014 2,000
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOI’s net application decreased 1 2014
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht 648
396 351 236
09FY
10FY
11FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
12FY
10% during the first 5 months of
irect investment*
525
256
13FY
230
2013/5M
2014/5M
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FDI from Japan, the biggest sourc years
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* break Percent of total
Others
23%
27%
USA ANIEs ASEAN
3% 6% 6%
2% 7%
Europe
17%
Japan
44%
8%
10FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis
7%
49%
11FY
ce, has been declining in recent
kdown by country group
11% 4% 10% 7% 10%
21%
11%
2% 6%
18%
10%
9% 3%
7%
28%
58%
54% 32%
12FY
13FY
2014/5M
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Most of Property indicators have
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 4 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent
15
Condo unit registered
4.4
Constr. Area in municipal
2.4
New housing unit
Value of land transaction
-10.8
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
increased so far in 2014
5.1
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change Apr vs Mar 2014, percent
-33.9
3.0
-10.3
26.9
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CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
22
Improvement in trade balance is and lower import Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB First 5 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000
2 1,500 1,000
2
-6.0%
+8.3%
500 0 -500 -1,000
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
a combination of weaker THB
2013
Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD First 5 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion USD 120 100 80 60
2014 40
-1.2%
-14%
20 0 -20 -40
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
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Export grew 8.3% in the first 5 mo machinery and automotive
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 5 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent Total export ReͲexports Other export Machinery PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Electrical Jewellery Optical instru Automotive Electronics Apparels Footware Furniture Agriculture Forestry Toiletries Fishery Agro products Chemicals Petroleum -3.1 Photo instru -13.4 Metal -17.2 Aircrafts -19.4 Mining -28.5
8.3 >1,000.0 >100.0 20.4 18.4 18.3 15.9 13.0 12.7 10.1 9.1 8.8 7.9 7.7 6.7 6.0 3.8 3.6 1.7 0.0
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
onths of 2014, thanks mainly to Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth Total export Machinery Other export Automotive Electronics PetroͲchemical Electrical Other manufacturing Agriculture Jewellery Apparels Agro products Optical instru ReͲexports Toiletries Furniture Fishery Forestry Footware Chemicals Photo instru Petroleum Mining Aircrafts Metal
8.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.9
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Positive growth in all export mark
Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
6.9 (Trilli
5.2
6.1
6.7
7.1
Middle East
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
EU
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
Japan
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
12.2
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
17.4
18.1
16.7
18.4
18.1
East Asia exͲJapan
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.6
25.9
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
100% =
NAFTA Rest of the world
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
kets so far this year
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 5 months of 2014 vs those of 2013
ion) 16.4%
EU Middle East
15.8%
10.2%
NAFTA
Japan
7.7%
Rest of the world
7.5%
ASEAN
5.7%
East Asia ex Japan
5.6%
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Import has decreased 6% so far in decrease in Others
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 5 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent
-6.0
Total import
9.2
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
2.6
Consumer goods
0.6
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
-3.8
Capital goods
Others
-50.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
n 2014, due mainly to the
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
Total import
-6.0
1.8
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
Consumer goods
0.2
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
0.2
-0.9
Capital goods
Others
-7.3
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Tourist arrivals dropped 6% in the compared to the same period last Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
10.6%
19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8
11.7
14.1
11.5
10.0
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY Source: Department of Tourism
e first 5 months of this year t year
Monthly cumulative 30.0
26.7 25.0
22.4
Y 12FY 13FY
2013 20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2014 J F M A M J J A S O N D
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Laos and Russia were the two hig so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world Americas
Europe
East Asia
15.3 6.0
28.7
15.6 5.3
27.9
14.7
13.8
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.3
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
11.8 4.4
23.6
60.2
13FY
ghest growing market for tourists
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 5 month of 2014 vs 2013, Thousands 154.1
Laos 84.9
Russia United Kingdom
26.7
France
24.6
Finland
12.4
Italy
11.1
Switzerland
8.2
Brazil
6.2
S.Africa
6.1
Spain
4.9
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
29
No change in policy interest rate i
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Jul-13
2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Jun-14
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Jul-13
0.00% Jun-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
in June
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Jun-14
Jul-13
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Jul-13
anches
0.00% Jun-14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
3% decrease in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2014
0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in the first 5 months of 2014
2013
J
A
S
O
N
D
31
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
32
Improving business confidence
Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
50
45.0
45.4
46.5
49.4 44.3
48.6
Worse
0 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
88.3
86.9
85.7
84.7
84.0
85.1
Worse
0 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Worsening consumer confidence
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Nov-13
Jan-1
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior mo Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of th Source: Ministry of Commerce
in May
On job
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 4
Mar-14
May-14
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
onth e prior month he prior month www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
35
BOT revised down this year’s grow
Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50
NESDB FPO
The Economist poll
3.00 2.50 2.00
BOT
1.50 1.00
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
wth to 1.5%
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2015, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50
BOT
5.00 4.50
The Economist poll
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Forecast as of, month ending
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Low growth prospect for Thailand
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of June 28th 2014 7.3 6.8
China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Pakistan Singapore South Korea Taiwan
6.0 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.4 4.2 3.7 3.0 2.9 2.8
Hong Kong Australia US Thailand Brazil Japan Euro Area Russia
Source: The Economist
2.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.5
d in 2014
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2015, Annual % change, as of June 28th 2014 7.0 6.4 6.4 6.5 5.5 6.2 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.9 3.0 4.5 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.3
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
38
Unemployment rate increased sli
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
0.68
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
ghtly to 0.94% in May
Monthly Average 1.00 0.90
2014
0.80 0.70 0.60
2013
0.50 0.40
0.66
0.72
12-Avg 13-Avg
0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ May Singapore Ͳ Q1 Malaysia Ͳ Apr Hong Kong Ͳ May
0.9 2.0 2.9 3.1
Vietnam Ͳ 2013
3.6
Japan Ͳ Apr
3.6
South Korea Ͳ May
3.6
Taiwan Ͳ May
4.0
China Ͳ Q1
4.1
Brazil Ͳ Apr Russia Ͳ May Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Australia Ͳ May Pakistan Ͳ 2013 US Ͳ May Philippines Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2013 Euro Area Ͳ Apr Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
4.9 4.9 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.3 7.0 8.8 11.7
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
41
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
45
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
'09
'11
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Switzerland (5) Qatar (6) Luxembourg (7) Channel Islands (8) Denmark (9) Australia (10) Sweden (11) Macao SAR, China (12) San Marino (13) Canada (14) United States (15) Isle of Man (16) Netherlands (17) Austria (18) Japan (19) Singapore (20) Finland (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Germany (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110
r than an average Chinese but n an average Indian
es
( ) = World rank 186,950
36,770
France (26) 41,750 Ireland (27) 38,970 United Kingdom (29) 38,250 Hong Kong SAR,… 36,560 Brunei Darussalam… 31,590 Spain (35) 30,110 Greece (39) 23,260 Korea, Rep. (41) 22,670 Russian Federation… 12,700 Malaysia (73) 9,800 Mexico (74) 9,740 Maldives (95) 5,750 China (96) 5,740 Thailand (102) 5,210 Iran, Islamic Rep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste (120) 3,670 Indonesia (124) 3,420 Egypt, Arab Rep. (133) 3,000 Sri Lanka (135) 2,920 Philippines (139) 2,470 Bhutan (140) 2,420 India (149) 1,530 Vietnam (152) 1,400 Lao PDR (157) 1,260 Cambodia (166) 880
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th with higher GNI per capita than C
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2012 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Norway (3) Luxembourg (4) Singapore (5) Switzerland (6) Hong Kong SAR, China (7) United States (8) Brunei Darussalam (9) Kuwait (10) Netherlands (11) Austria (12) Australia (13) Sweden (14) Canada (15) Denmark (16) United Arab Emirates (17) Germany (18) Belgium (19) Finland (20) France (21) Japan (22) United Kingdom (23) Ireland (24) Iceland (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550
hailand’s rank improved to 89th, China
es
8,710
30
0
( ) = World rank 84,670
Italy (26) 32,280 Korea, Rep. (28) 30,890 Israel (32) 28,070 Greece (38) 24,790 Russian Federation… 22,760 Mexico (60) 16,630 Malaysia (61) 16,530 Argentina (75) 11,740 Brazil (76) 11,720 Thailand (89) 9,430 China (94) 9,210 Bhutan (105) 6,310 Sri Lanka (107) 6,120 Indonesia (119) 4,810 Philippines (121) 4,400 India (128) 3,840 Vietnam (132) 3,440 Lao PDR (137) 2,730 Cambodia (140) 2,360 Bangladesh (147) 2,070 Kenya (154) 1,760 Ethiopia (169) 1,140 Madagascar (172) 950 Niger (176) 650 Congo, Dem. Rep.… 370
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht
14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
20,903
2009
23,236
2011
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
16,205
2009
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
17,403
2011
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht
104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,699
134,900
2009
2011
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3
2.4 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
51
Both headline and core inflation d
Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 3.00%
Head line 2.50%
2.00%
Core* 1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00% Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 Jun-14
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
decreased slightly in June
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product June 2014, percent Meat
8.0
Tobacco & alcohol
6.1
Food away from home
5.7
Prepared food at home
5.0
Seasoning
5.0
Energy
4.8
Housing & furnishing
1.7
Rice
1.5
Transport & Commu
1.3
Eggs & milk
1.1
Non alcoholic beverage
1.0
Medical care
1.0
Recreation & Education
0.7
Apparel and footware
0.6
Veg & fruit
-1.1
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
Pakistan Ͳ May India Ͳ May Russia Ͳ May
7
Indonesia Ͳ May 6.4
Brazil Ͳ May 5.0
Vietnam Ͳ Jun
4.5
Philippines Ͳ May 3.7
Hong Kong Ͳ May
3.4
Japan Ͳ Apr
3.2
Malaysia Ͳ May
2.9
Australia Ͳ Q1
2.7
Singapore Ͳ May
2.5
China Ͳ May
2.4
Thailand Ͳ Jun
2.1
US Ͳ May Taiwan Ͳ May
1.6
South Korea Ͳ May
1.6
Euro Area Ͳ May Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
0.5
he low side compared to other
2014* 8.3
7.7
8.3
8.2
7.6
6.0
.3
6.4 6.5 5.7 4.0 3.6 2.6 3.2 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.6 0.8
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Inflation at producer level increas
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 Jun-14
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
sed slightly and remained low
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product June 2014, percent Petroluem products Energy Livestocks Metal Chemical Basic metals Mechinery Fishing Leather & footware Wood Textile Transport equip NonͲmetallic mineral Other manu goods Forestry Forestry Food Electrical equip Crop Rubber & plastic -7.7
11.9 11.3 5.0 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -1.7
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
55
Credit market is still growing but Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oc
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95%
95.3%
94.9%
May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
95.7%
95.5%
9
Aug-13 Sep-13
O
93.3%
90% 85%
Source: Bank of Thailand
the pace has slowed down
M-o-M +0.2%
Y-o-Y +9.5%
ct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
96.6%
96.3%
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
it* ratio
95.0%
95.0%
Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
96.2%
96.7%
Feb-14 Mar-14
Apr-14
95.3%
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL increased slightly in 14 percent of total loan
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10YE
270
11Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
06YE
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
08YE
09YE
10YE
2.75
11Y
4/Q1 in absolute value and
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
256
267
281
YE
12YE
13YE
14/Q1
14/Q2
14/Q3
14/Q2
14/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
2.26%
2.16%
2.26%
12YE
13YE
14/Q1
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio increased to 1
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8% 14.9% 13.3%
1
16.1% 14.8%
14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
15.9% in April
nks* Month End 16.8%
16.2%
15.7%
16.6% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0%
2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%
2014
15.2% 15.0%
2012
anches
2013
14.8%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s real interest rate is slig Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of June 28th 2014
3M riskͲfree interest rates 10.8
Brazil
10.2
Pakistan
9.4
Russia
8.6
India
8.2
Indonesia 6.0
Vietnam 4.8
China
3.6
Malaysia Australia
2.8
South Korea
2.6 1.8
Thailand
1.3
Philippines Taiwan
0.9
Hong Kong
0.4
Singapore
0.3
US
0.2
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
ghtly negative
=
Expected 2014 inflation*
Real interest rates
6.5 2.5
7.7
3.4
6.0 0.4
8.2
1.8
6.4 0.3
5.7
2.5
2.3 0.4
3.2 0.0
2.8
1.0
1.6 -0.9
2.7 4.0
-2.7 -0.5
1.4 3.6 2.2 1.8
-3.2 -1.9 -1.6 -0.6
0.8 2.6
-2.5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
SET went up almost 5% in June th Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end 4.0%
3.8%
4.9% 2.8% 0.1%
-1.9%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0
D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
E
hanks largely to local demand Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2013 Percent, as of June 25th 2014 19.6%
India (BSE)
14.7%
Pakistan (KSE) Indonesia (JSX)
13.2%
Thailand (SET)
13.1% 7.3%
Taiwan (TWI)
6.0%
US (S&P 500)
4.9%
US (NAScomp)
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
3.9%
France (CAC 40)
3.8%
Germany (DAX)
3.3%
Singapore (STI)
3.0%
US (DJIA)
1.8%
Malaysia (KLSE)
1.2%
Australia (All Ord.)
0.6% -0.2%
UK (FTSE 100) S Korea (KOSPI)
-1.5%
HK (Hang Seng)
-1.9% -4.2%
China (SSEA) Japan (Nikkei 225)
-6.3%
China (SSEB, $ terms) -11.7% www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
61
Lower budget and cash deficit as
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
percentage of GDP in 2013
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
%
-0.9% -2.0% -2.3%
-2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slightly higher deficit in the first 5 the same period in 2013 Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1,751
Revenue 1,109
1,241
0
-36
Budget balance -1,109
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1
1,484
110
-75 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1,825
-1
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
5 months of 2014, compared to
Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht)
,902
2,078
2,153
100.0
50.0
0.0
2014 -50.0
-28 -412
-271 -100.0
2013
-150.0
-200.0
1,930 -2,489
-2,424
-250.0
-300.0
1FY 12FY 13FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
NonͲbudgetary deficit so far in 20
Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110
0
88
8
-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174
-3
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
014
plus)
-28 -75
-96 -146
-163
-236 -266
-271
364 -401
-412 -466
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
'14/5mo
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit is expecte same as Indonesia
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2014*, percent Hong Kong South Korea Singapore Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan China Indonesia Thailand Euro Area US Brazil Malaysia Vietnam
-5
India -6.8
Pakistan Japan
-8.0
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist, Bank of Thailand
ed to be around 2.3% of GDP,
ercentage of GDP 1.3 1.0 0.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.4 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 -4.0 -4.7 .2
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt in
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 4.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
3.0
2.0
Direct Government debt
1.0
0.0 2010 10%
2011
2012
8%
8%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
2013
Apr-14
7%
7%
Ext as
absolute term so far in 2014
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45%
Public debt from State Enterprises
40% 35% 30%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
25% 20% 15%
Direct Government debt
10% 5% 0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
Apr-14
ternal debt percent of total www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2013 est. 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania
22 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
26
ta
48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia
59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • Manufacturing production picked u • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were less pessimistic wh • The consensus projection is betwee
• In May, unemployment rate increa countries • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• Head line inflation dropped to 2.35 inflation decreased to 1.3%. • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 1Q14. Liquidity • Higher deficit in the first 5 months increasing but not too worrying jus • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
up from last month but still lagged behind a year ago nvestment improved slightly from last month ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited hile consumers were more pessimistic en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015 sed to 0.94%, still a very low rate compared to other
mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
5% and Core inflation to 1.71% in June. Producer Price
nk’s capital ratio increased and is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt is st yet. in the first 5 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in June.
68
Balance of Payment went negativ due mainly to capital outflow
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.1
5.3 1.2 -0.4 -5.0 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
13FY
14/5mo
ve in the first 5 months of 2014, Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
on
29.8 17.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
6.0
6.4
12FY
13FY
8.7
14/5mo
Net service income & transfer -1.8
+
-10.7
-7.5
-9.1
12FY
13FY
-12.9 -19.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
14/5mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 21.3 6.7
2.2
-2.3
-2.9 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
-7.4 14/5mo
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2014 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q1 Taiwan Ͳ Q1 6.4%
Malaysia Ͳ Q1
5.0%
Vietnam Ͳ 2012
4.6%
South Korea Ͳ Apr Hong Kong Ͳ Q1
2.9%
Philippines Ͳ Mar
2.8%
Thailand Ͳ Q1
2.5%
Euro Area Ͳ Apr
2.3% 1.8%
China Ͳ Q1
1.3%
Russia Ͳ Q1
0.3%
Japan Ͳ Apr US Ͳ Q1
-2.1%
Pakistan Ͳ Q1
-2.2%
Australia Ͳ Q1
-2.5%
India Ͳ Q1
-2.6%
Indonesia Ͳ Q1
-3.5%
Brazil Ͳ May
-3.7%
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.4%
56.3
12.0%
61.9 14.3 9.1 87.1 4.5 9.7 4.9 329.6 142.3 36.1 2.7 -405.9 -3.6 -40.9 -32.4 -27.3 -81.9
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt almost unchanged
Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
37.0%
05YE
38.5%
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
in the first quarter of 2014
E
10YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
%
E
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
38.0%
38.2%
38.2%
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Structure of external debt does n
Chart 5.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
13%
16%
87%
84%
10YE
11YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
20%
18%
18%
80%
82%
82%
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
ot change from end of last year
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
50%
50%
10YE
45%
44%
43%
43%
55%
56%
57%
57%
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340% 312%
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
279%
279%
13YE
14/1Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
7.6%
4.7% 4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
13FY
14/1Q
3.4%
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves increas still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
154.1 55.9
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
2009
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
13.8 9.1 5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
2009
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
sed slightly so far this year and
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
190.2
190.8
2013
May-14
9.1
9.7
2013
May-14
1
9
2010
er of months of import**
8
12.6 10.8
9
2010
2011
9.9
2012
the last 12 months
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated slightly against k
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
106.0
Baht appreciates MͲoͲM
+0.3%
105.0
104.0
103.0
102.0
101.0
100.0 99.0
YͲoͲY
Ͳ2.2%
Baht depreciates Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
98.0
97.0 Jun-14
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
key currencies in June
e
0
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of June 30th 2014 IDR Ͳ 2.9186
13.6
VND Ͳ 0.0015
0.0
JPY Ͳ 32.3299
-1.6
CNY Ͳ 5.2869
-2.8
0
INR Ͳ 0.5766
-2.9
0
MYR Ͳ 10.2817
-3.1
0
PHP Ͳ 0.7566
-3.3
0
USD Ͳ 32.5986
-4.1
TWD Ͳ 1.0899
-4.5
MXN Ͳ 2.5148
-4.5
SGD Ͳ 26.2291
-5.3
AUD Ͳ 30.8463
-5.8
EUR Ͳ 44.5838 GBP Ͳ 55.6215
-8.2 -14.0
KRW Ͳ 0.0321 -15.3 Baht depreciates
Baht appreciates
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