MONTHLY ECONOMIC
August 2014 issue
Executive summary Growth The Thai Economy contracted in the first quarter of 2014. On the expenditure side, Investment and Private consumption were affected and contributed negatively to the overall growth. On the production side, Contraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged the overall GDP growth In June, Manufacturing production went back to its declining trend, while Agriculture production increased impressively. On the expenditure side, Private consumption and Private Investment also declined. FDI and BOI net application dropped. Export grew 9% in THB term but decreased in USD term. Import, however, registered a negative growth, driven by lower intermediate goods import. Tourist arrivals dropped 10% in the first 6 months. Looking forward, Monetary policies are proͲ growth, with policy rate unchanged at 2%. Government spending was limited due to political situation.
Confidence in private s Businesses were more Industries and Consum pessimistic.
The consensus project 2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ
Employment and wea Unemployment rate in 1.15% in June but Thai rate is the lowest amo
Thailand’s per capita in 5,370 in 2013, ranked average Thai is slightly average Chinese but m richer than an average Income distribution is but there has been ove the past two decades, Bangkok. Poverty head have declined over the
sector is mixed. e pessimistic while mers were less
tion is between 1.5%Ͳ Ͳ5.5% for 2015.
alth distribution ncreased significantly to iland’s unemployment ongst leading economies
ncome was at USD 103rd in the world. An y poorer than an more than three times e Vietnamese. Thailand’s among the worst in Asia erall improvement over except for only in dcount and poverty rate e last decade.
Stability In July, Headline inflation dropped to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the way in price increase compared to a year ago. Producer Price inflation decreased slightly to 1.2%. Banking system is quite stable. Bank’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity tightened slightly as loan expanded. Lower budget surplus in the first 6 months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. Public debt as percentage of GDP increased slightly so far this year due mainly to direct government debt, but the current level of 46% is not yet dangerous. Majority of the public debt is domestic based. Balance of Payment went negative in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. External debt has been increasing but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
2
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
3
Economic contraction in the first
Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3%
CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 = 4.1%
4.6%
5.1% 5.0%
2.5%
-2.3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200
Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
quarter of 2014
7.8% 6.5%
2.9%
0.1% -0.6%
3%
09 2010 2011 2012 2013
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Contraction in Manufacturing and overall GDP growth the most in 1 Chart 1.06a – Real growth by sector, 1Q14 YearͲonͲYear percentage change -0.6
GDP Financial
6.6
PublicAdmin
6.6 5.7
Education
3.7
Transport
2.2
Health&Social Agriculture
1.3
Other social
1.3
RealEstate
-0.3
Trading
-0.5 -1.2
Mining Fishing
-2.4
Private HH
-2.5
Manufacture
-2.7
Utilities
-3.1
Hotel&Res
-3.1
Construction
-12.4
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
d Construction has dragged the Q14 Chart 1.06b – Sectoral contributions, 1Q14 Contributions to total Real GDP growth -0.6
GDP
0.4
Transport
0.3
Financial
0.2
PublicAdmin
0.1
Education
0.1
Agriculture Other social
0.0
Health&Social
0.0
Private HH
0.0
RealEstate
0.0
Mining
0.0
Fishing
0.0 -0.1
Trading
-0.1
Utilities
-0.1
Hotel&Res
-0.3
Construction Manufacture
-1.0
5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Investment and Private consumpt contributed negatively to the ove
Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 1Q YearͲonͲYear percentage change M (services)
11.2
G
2.9
X (goods)
0.8
GDP
-0.6
C
-3.0
X (services)
-4.2
I (capital)
-9.8
M (goods) I
-12.0 -17.4
Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import
Source: NESDB; CTE analysis
tion were affected and erall growth in 1Q14
Q14 Chart 1.08b – Expenditure Contributions, 1Q14
2
Contributions to total Real GDP growth GDP
-0.6
M (goods)
5.9
X (goods)
0.4
Discrpncy
0.3
G
0.3
X (services)
-0.8
M (services)
-1.0
C
-1.5
I (Inventory)
-2.1
I (capital)
-2.1
ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services
6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
7
Manufacturing production declin
Chart 1.11 – Manufacturing Production Index (2000=100) CAGR
2.7%
194.2 174.8 152.1
182.6
161.1
170.0
177.7
138.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
ed again in June
Monthly Average 250.0
200.0
2013
181.6
175.8
150.0
2014
M-o-M
100.0
-1.7%
Y-o-Y
50.0
-6.6%
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most sectors had their production last month
Chart 1.12a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector June 2014, percent
24.3
Precision instru
21.1
Wood products
18.9
Tobacco Electronic
14.5
Basic Mat
13.3
Paper
6.6
Rubber&Plastic
6.1
Metal products
5.0 3.3
Petroleum
0.5
Leather -2.0
Chemical Textiles
-3.5
Office automate
-4.0
Food & Bev
-4.0
Electrical
-8.0
Mineral
-8.2 -11.1
Machineries
-12.8
Apparel Transport Equip Furniture Vehicles
-19.1 -23.7 -26.8
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis
n decreased substantially from
Chart 1.12b – MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector June 2014, percent
3
0.3 -1.1 14.3 7.3 2.0 -4.7 -0.5 -2.3 -5.3 -0.6 -2.8 1.2 -3.3 -8.8 3.4 -4.5 -5.8 3.1 0.7 -1.7 5.1
9
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capacity utilization rate continue
Chart 1.13a – Overall Capacity Utilization Rate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70%
Seasonally adjusted
60% Normal
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Source: The Office of Industrial Economics
s its declining trend
4
Chart 1.13b – Capacity utilization rate by sector June 2014, percent Rubber&Plastic Textiles Electrical Wood products Metal products Furniture Basic Mat Chemical Precision instru Leather Electronic Office automate Food & Bev Mineral Transport Equip Paper Vehicles Petroleum Machineries Tobacco Apparel
84% 80% 78% 76% 73% 71% 71% 71% 67% 66% 66% 62% 61% 60% 56% 54% 45% 42% 42% 35% 26%
10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s MPI dropped the most Philippines enjoyed highest grow
Chart 1.14 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Philippines Ͳ May China Ͳ Jun Taiwan Ͳ Jun Vietnam Ͳ Jul Malaysia Ͳ May Australia Ͳ Q1 India Ͳ May US Ͳ Jun Japan Ͳ Jun Indonesia Ͳ May Pakistan Ͳ May Hong Kong Ͳ Q1 South Korea Ͳ Jun Euro Area Ͳ May Russia Ͳ Jun Singapore Ͳ Jun -3.1
Brazil Ͳ May Thailand Ͳ Jun Source: The Economist
-6.6
t from a year ago, while wth
x 13.8 9.2 8.6 7.5 6.1 5.7 4.7 4.3 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Agriculture production still grew
Chart 1.10 – Agriculture production index (2005=100)
CAGR
3.0% 122.5
100.0
105.9
113.0 112.1 109.4 111.2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a
healthily from a year ago
Monthly Average 250.0 Y-o-Y
128.4 126.6
+1.2% 200.0 M-o-M
-5.7% 150.0
2014 2013 100.0
50.0
0.0
2012 2013
J F M A M J J A S O N D
12 nd Cooperatives
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
13
Private consumption dropped aga
Chart 1.15 – Composite Private Consumption I (2000=100) CAGR
2.5%
117.8
126.1 121.9 124.2
130.6
134.2
139.2
127.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Note: (*) seasonally adjusted Source: Bank of Thailand
ain in June
Index*
147.0 147.5
12-Avg 13-Avg
Monthly Average 150.0
149.0
148.0
2013 147.0
2014 146.0
145.0
144.0
M-o-M
-1.0%
Y-o-Y
-1.1% 143.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Vehicle consumption expenditure far this year Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change First 6 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent NGV (kg.)* Diesel (litre)
1
LPG (litre)*
1
Benzene & Gasohol (litre)
0
Real VAT (2000 prices, baht)
0.0
HH electricity (kilowatt/hour)
-0.6
Real import of consumer goods (2000 prices, US$)
-6.8 -20.4
Motocycle (Unit) -33.9
Commercial Car (Unit) Passenger Car (Unit)
-47.6
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
es were the biggest decliners so
Chart 1.16b – MͲonͲM change June vs May 2014, percent 4.2
0.9 2.8
1.1 0.3
1.0 -0.5
0.6 -3.9
2.0 -3.2 -3.1 -1.0 3.2
15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Private Investment went down in
Chart 1.17 – Private Investment Index (2000=100)
CAGR
4.9% 209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0
193.5
183.9 161.2
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: Bank of Thailand
n June
Monthly Average 260.0 255.0 250.0
240.8 240.1
12-Avg 13-Avg
245.0
2013
240.0 235.0 230.0
M-o-M
2014
-0.2%
225.0 Y-o-Y
220.0
-2.7%
215.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Commercial car sales took the big
Chart 1.18a – YͲonͲY change First 6 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent
Domestic Cement sales (ton)
2.2
Domestic Machinery sales* (2000 prices, Baht)
1.6
Construction Area permitted (sqm)
Import of Capital Goods (2000 prices, Baht)
Domestic commercial car -32.6 sales (unit)
Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
-0.6
-6.7
ggest hit so far this year
Chart 1.18b – MͲonͲM change June vs May 2014, percent
2
0.2
-2.0
-1.5
0.3
-1.1
17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
FDI value dropped 15% in the firs
Chart 5.14 – Foreign Direct Investment Million USD
1 11,331 10,699 9,112 8,547
4,853 3,861
07FY
08FY
(*) Preliminary figures
Source: BOT
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
t 5 months of 2014
Monthly cumulative FDI* 14,000
12,807
13FY
12,000
2013 10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2014 2,000
0
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D
18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
BOI’s net application decreased 1 2014
Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign di Billion Baht 648
396 351 236
09FY
10FY
11FY
Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)
Source: Board of Investment
12FY
10% during the first 5 months of
irect investment*
525
256
13FY
230
2013/5M
2014/5M
19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
FDI from Japan, the biggest sourc years
Chart 5.16 – BOI net application of FDI* break Percent of total
Others
23%
27%
USA ANIEs ASEAN
3% 6% 6%
2% 7%
Europe
17%
Japan
44%
8%
10FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea
Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis
7%
49%
11FY
ce, has been declining in recent
kdown by country group
11% 4% 10% 7% 10%
21%
11%
2% 6%
18%
10%
9% 3%
7%
28%
58%
54% 32%
12FY
13FY
2014/5M 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Most of Property indicators have
Chart 1.19a – YͲonͲY change First 5 months of 2014 vs 2013, percent
24.5
Condo unit registered
Constr. Area in municipal
-6.2
New housing unit -12.1
Value of land transaction -15.5
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
decreased so far in 2014
Chart 1.19b – MͲonͲM change May vs Apr 2014, percent
130.9
-10.6
15.7
2.8
21 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
22
Improvement in trade balance is and lower import Chart 5.03a – Trade balance* in THB First 5 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion Baht 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500
2
2,000 1,500
2
-6.0%
+9.1%
1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000
Export
–
Import
=
Trade balance
Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
a combination of weaker THB
Chart 5.03b – Trade balance* in USD First 5 months of 2014 vs 2013, Billion USD 140 120 100 80
2013
2014
60 -0.4%
-14%
40 20 0 -20 -40
Export
stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion
–
Import
=
Trade balance
23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Export grew 9.1% in the first 6 mo machinery, automotive and elect
Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in First 6 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent Total export ReͲexports Other export Machinery PetroͲchemical Other manufacturing Jewellery Electrical Optical instru Automotive Footware Electronics Agriculture Apparels Furniture Forestry Fishery Toiletries Agro products Chemicals Petroleum Aircrafts -10.5 Photo instru -11.9 Metal -13.8 Mining -21.1
9.1 >1,000.0 >100.0 19.8 18.5 17.7 14.9 14.6 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.2 5.4 5.0 2.4 1.6 0.5
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
onths of 2014, thanks mainly to ronics Baht Chart 5.05b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total export growth Total export Machinery Automotive Electronics Other export PetroͲchemical Electrical Agriculture Other manufacturing Jewellery Apparels Agro products ReͲexports Optical instru Chemicals Toiletries Fishery Furniture Forestry Footware Petroleum Photo instru Aircrafts Mining Metal
9.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7
24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Positive growth in all export mark
Chart 5.07a – Export by country Percent of total export in THB term
6.9 (Trilli
5.2
6.1
6.7
7.1
Middle East
5.7
5.0
4.7
5.1
5.1
EU
11.9
11.3
10.9
9.5
9.8
Japan
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.2
9.7
12.2
11.7
11.1
11.4
11.5
17.4
18.1
16.7
18.4
18.1
East Asia exͲJapan
21.0
21.0
21.2
20.1
20.4
ASEAN
21.3
23.0
24.3
24.6
25.9
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
100% =
NAFTA Rest of the world
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
kets so far this year
Chart 5.07b – Change in Export In THB term, First 6 months of 2014 vs those of 2013
ion) 17.7%
EU Middle East
14.8%
11.8%
NAFTA
Japan
8.0%
Rest of the world
7.7%
East Asia ex Japan
7.0%
ASEAN
6.8%
25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Intermediate goods has gained m
Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classificatio Percent of total import in Baht term Ѯ 4.6
Ѯ 5.9
Ѯ 7.0
Others
7.8
10.2
12.4
Capital goods
22.3
20.9
Intermediate – NonͲFuel
43.0
44.0
40.0
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
18.6
17.4
18.9
Consumer goods
8.3
7.5
7.5
09FY
10FY
11FY
100% =
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
21.3
more share this year
n
0
Ѯ 7.8
Ѯ 7.7
4
11.4
12.1
Y
Ѯ 3.7
(Trillion)
7.6
23.6
24.4
23.2
37.5
36.0
18.9
20.6
22.4
7.8
8.0
8.5
12FY
13FY
14/6MO
37.8
26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Import has decreased 6% so far in decrease in Others
Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in First 6 months of 2014 vs those of 2013, percent
-6.0
Total import
Consumer goods
2.
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
2.
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
0.4
-1.7
Capital goods
Others
-47.7
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
n 2014, due mainly to the
n Baht Chart 5.09b – Sectoral contributions Contributions to total import growth
Total import
-6.0
.8
Intermediate Ͳ Fuel
0.6
.7
Consumer goods
0.2
Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel
0.1
4
-0.4
Capital goods
Others
-6.5
27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Tourist arrivals dropped 10% in th compared to the same period last Chart 5.18 – International Tourist Arrivals Million visits
CAGR
10.6%
19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8
11.7
14.1
11.5
10.0
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY Source: Department of Tourism
he first 6 months of this year t year
Monthly cumulative 30.0
26.7 25.0
22.4
Y 12FY 13FY
2013 20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2014 J F M A M J J A S O N D
28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Laos and Russia were the two hig so far this year Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality Percent of total Rest of world Americas
Europe
East Asia
15.3 6.0
28.7
15.6 5.3
27.9
14.7
13.8
5.0
4.8
26.5
25.3
50.0
51.2
53.8
56.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis
11.8 4.4
23.6
60.2
13FY
ghest growing market for tourists
Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Change in International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality First 6 month of 2014 vs 2013, Thousands Laos
78.5
Russia
77.8 29.8
France
23.5
United Kingdom Italy
9.7
Finland
7.4
Switzerland
7.3
Denmark
7.0
Brazil
5.4
Myanmar
5.0
29 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
30
No change in policy interest rate i
Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate
Aug-13
2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Jul-14
Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max
2.50%
Min Aug-13
0.00% Jul-14
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
in July
Chart 3.01b – BIBOR overnight rate 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% Jul-14
Aug-13
Chart 3.01d – Commercial bank MLR* Max
10.00% 7.50%
Min 5.00% 2.50%
Aug-13
anches
0.00% Jul-14
31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
3% decrease in fiscal expenditure
Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2014
0
J
F
M
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
A
M
J
e in the first 6 months of 2014
2013
J
A
S
O
N
D
32
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
33
Mixed signal in business confiden
Chart 1.21a – Business Sentiment Index* 100
Better
50
45.4
46.5
49.4 44.3
48.6
48.0
Worse
0 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries
nce
Chart 1.21b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thai Industries Sentiment Index** 200
Better
100
86.9
85.7
84.7
84.0
85.1
88.4
Worse
0 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened
34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Improving consumer confidence i
Chart 1.20a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index Overall
100
O
100
Better
Better
50
50 Worse
Worse
0
0 Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Feb-1
Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior mo Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of th Source: Ministry of Commerce
in June
On job
On future income
100
Better 50 Worse
0 4
Apr-14
onth e prior month he prior month
Jun-14
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
36
Consensus growth forecast uncha
Chart 1.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2014, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50
NESDB FPO
3.00 2.50
The Economist poll
2.00
BOT
1.50 1.00
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Forecast as of, month ending
Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo
anged
omist
Chart 1.03b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections For 2015, Annual percentage change 6.00 5.50
BOT 5.00 4.50 The Economist poll
4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Forecast as of, month ending 37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Low growth prospect for Thailand
Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2014, Annual % change, as of Aug 1st 2014 7.3
China Philippines India Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Pakistan Singapore South Korea Taiwan
6.3 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.4 4.2 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.6
Australia Hong Kong US Thailand Japan Euro Area Brazil Russia
Source: The Economist
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.6
d in 2014
Chart 1.04b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections 2015, Annual % change, as of Aug 1st 2014 7.0 6.4 6.4 6.5 5.5 6.2 4.0 4.4 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.5 3.0 4.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.3 38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
39
Unemployment rate increased sig
Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent
2.07 1.83 1.51
1.49 1.38
1.38
1.04
0.68
04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1
Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand
gnificantly to 1.15% in June
Monthly Average 1.40
1.20
2014 1.00
0.80
2013
0.60
0.66
0.72
12-Avg 13-Avg
0.40
0.20
0.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
40 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s unemployment rate is leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent Thailand Ͳ Jun Singapore Ͳ Q2 Malaysia Ͳ May Hong Kong Ͳ Jun
1.2 2.0 2.9 3.2
South Korea Ͳ Jun
3.5
Vietnam Ͳ 2013
3.6
Japan Ͳ Jun
3.7
Taiwan Ͳ Jun
4.0
China Ͳ Q2
4.1
Brazil Ͳ Apr Russia Ͳ Jun Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Australia Ͳ Jun US Ͳ Jun Pakistan Ͳ 2013 Philippines Ͳ Q2 India Ͳ 2013 Euro Area Ͳ May Source: The Economist
lowest comparing to other
4.9 4.9 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.2 7.0 8.8 11.6
41 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
42
Overall improvement in income d for only in Bangkok Chart 2.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GINI coefficient 0.55
Overall 0.50
South
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
distribution in Thailand, except
North East North Central Bangkok
'00
'02
'04
'06
'07
'09
'11
of income.
the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.
43
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Slight improvement of income dis top and the bottom 20% Chart 2.02 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintile by income Percent of total income
Top 20% Bottom 20%
11.9
13.3
14.9
14.1
13.5
Top 20%
54.4
57.0
59.0
57.2
56.5
Second 20%
20.6
19.5
18.9
19.7
19.9
Third 20%
12.4
11.7
11.1
11.7
11.8
Forth 20%
8.1
7.5
7.4
7.6
Bottom 20%
4.6
4.3
7.1 4.0
4.1
4.2
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB
5
1
stribution when compared the
13.1
14.6
13.4
12.2
14.4
12.8
11.8
11.1
56.1
57.5
56.0
54.7
56.0
54.6
54.1
54.2
19.8
19.8
20.1
20.3
20.2
20.5
20.4
19.5
12.0
11.5
12.1
12.5
12.2
12.6
12.7
12.8
7.8
7.7
8.0
7.7
8.0
8.3
8.6
4.3
7.3 4.0
4.2
4.5
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.9
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2009
2011 44
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Data from World Bank suggests th Thailand is not as bad as in Malay Chart 2.03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Income equality in the world
Ratio of the share of national income going to the richest 20% Latest, selected countries Honduras Bolivia Comoros South Africa Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles Central African Republic Paraguay Panama Zambia Costa Rica El Salvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela, RB Mexico Malaysia Dominican Republic
2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3
Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis
hat income equality problem in ysia or China
% to the share of the poorest 20%
29.7 27.8 .7
Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey Russian Federation Thailand Iran, Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia Lao PDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt, Arab Rep. Pakistan Afghanistan Slovak Republic
11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6
45
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
46
Except for only Bangkok, poverty have declined over the last decad Chart 2.04a
Chart 2.04b
Thailand Poverty Line
Number of poor pe
Baht/ month/ person
Million
3,500
25
3,000 20 2,500 15
2,000
1,500
10
1,000 5 500
0
0 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Legend color:
'11
Overall
'01
'03
Bangkok
'05
Centr
Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi
Source: NESDB
headcount and poverty rate de Chart 2.04c
eople
Percent of Poor people Percentage of total population 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% '07
ral
'09
North
'11
'01
'03
North East
South
'05
'07
ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years
'09
'11
47
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Many countries in Asia and espec of their populations earning less t
Chart 2.05 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Poverty in the world, selected co
Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day (PPP) (% of population), L Congo, Dem. Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India
6
Lao PDR 60.2
Pakistan
57.3
Nepal
53.3
Cambodia 46.1
Indonesia
43.4
Vietnam
41.5
Philippines 31.3
South Africa China
29.8
Bhutan
29.8
Sri Lanka
29.1
Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank
21.4 15.8
cially ASEAN, still have majority than $2.00 a day
ountries
Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7
66.0
15.4
Egypt, Arab Rep. Venezuela, RB
12.9
Peru
12.7 10.8
Brazil
8.0
Iran, Islamic Rep. Mexico
5.2
Thailand
4.6
Turkey
4.2
Chile
2.7
Malaysia
2.3
Argentina
1.9
Romania
1.7
Bulgaria
0.4
Hungary
0.4
Montenegro
0.3
Poland
0.2
Slovak Republic
0.1
Slovenia
0.1
Croatia
0.1
Russian Federation
0.1
48
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
An average Thai is slightly poorer more than three times richer than
Chart 2.06 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2013 or latest, Atlas method (current US$) Monaco (1) Liechtenstein (2) Bermuda (3) Norway (4) Qatar (5) Switzerland (6) Luxembourg (7) Australia (8) Macao SAR, China (9) Denmark (10) Sweden (11) Singapore (12) United States (13) North America (14) Canada (15) San Marino (16) Austria (17) Netherlands (18) Finland (19) Japan (20) Germany (21) Belgium (22) Kuwait (23) Iceland (24) Andorra (25)
Source: The World Bank
13 104,610 102,610 85,550 80,950 71,810 65,520 64,050 61,110 59,130 54,040 53,670 53,533 52,200 51,470 48,590 47,440 47,110 46,140 46,100 45,210 44,940 43,930 43,110
r than an average Chinese but n an average Vietnamese
es
36,770
( ) = World rank 186,950
France (26) United Kingdom (27) Hong Kong SAR,â&#x20AC;Ś Brunei Darussalamâ&#x20AC;Ś Korea, Rep. (39) Chile (52) Venezuela, RB (64) Brazil (67) Malaysia (73) Mexico (74) China (94) Thailand (103) Mongolia (120) Indonesia (125) Philippines (130) Bhutan (140) Vietnam (147) Lao PDR (153) Cambodia (165) Bangladesh (167) Mali (176) Gambia, The (182) Ethiopia (185) Liberia (189) Malawi (192)
42,250 39,110 38,420 31,590 25,920 15,230 12,550 11,690 10,400 9,940 6,560 5,370 3,770 3,580 3,270 2,460 1,730 1,460 950 900 670 510 470 410 270 49
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Using Purchasing Power Parity, Th with higher GNI per capita than C
Chart 2.07 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNI per capita, selected countrie 2013 or latest, PPP (current international $) Qatar (1) Macao SAR, China (2) Kuwait (3) Singapore (4) Brunei Darussalam (5) Norway (6) Bermuda (7) Luxembourg (8) United Arab Emirates (9) Hong Kong SAR, China (10) United States (11) Switzerland (12) Saudi Arabia (13) Oman (14) Sweden (15) Germany (16) Denmark (17) Austria (18) Netherlands (19) Canada (20) Australia (21) Belgium (22) Iceland (23) Finland (24) Japan (25)
Source: The World Bank
68
66,
66, 59,750 58,090 54,260 53,960 53,920 53,780 52,170 44,660 44,540 44,440 43,810 43,210 42,590 42,540 40,280 38,870 38,480 37,630
hailand’s rank improved to 82nd, China
es
( ) = World rank
88,170 76,850
8,090
,520
,390
France (26) 37,580 United Kingdom (28) 35,760 Korea, Rep. (31) 33,440 Israel (32) 32,140 Russian Federation… 23,200 Malaysia (50) 22,460 Lebanon (66) 17,390 Mexico (71) 16,110 Brazil (78) 14,750 Thailand (82) 13,510 China (88) 11,850 Sri Lanka (104) 9,470 Indonesia (105) 9,260 Mongolia (108) 8,810 Philippines (112) 7,820 Bhutan (116) 7,210 TimorͲLeste (122) 6,410 India (129) 5,350 Vietnam (132) 5,030 Lao PDR (137) 4,570 Cambodia (148) 2,890 Bangladesh (151) 2,810 Nepal (157) 2,260 Uganda (174) 1,370 Malawi (185) 760 50
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Increasing trend in household inc debt service year has reduced fro Chart 2.10a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly income per household Average, Baht 23,236 14,963
2004
17,787
18,660
2006
2007
2011
25,403
2013
Chart 2.10b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly expenditure per househ Average, Baht
12,297
2004
14,311
14,500
2006
2007
17,403
2011
Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis
19,259
2013
come, expenditure and debt, but om the recent peak in 2004
hold
Chart 2.10c – Debt per household Average, Baht 159,492 104,571
2004
116,585
116,681
2006
2007
134,900
2011
2013
Chart 2.10d – Debt service year* 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.9
2004
2006
2007
2011
2.2
2013
Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)
51
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
52
Headline inflation dropped while in July Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI Percent 3.00%
2.50%
Head line
2.00%
Core* 1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00% Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
core inflation increased slightly
Chart 3.07b – YͲoͲY change in CPI by product July 2014, percent Meat
7.8
Tobacco & alcohol
6.2
Prepared food at home
5.7
Food away from home
5.4
Seasoning
5.2
Energy
3.1
Eggs & milk
2.7
Housing & furnishing
1.7
Rice
1.3
Medical care
1.0
Non alcoholic beverage
1.0
Recreation & Education
0.7
Apparel and footware
0.7
Transport & Commu
0.4
Veg & fruit
-2.5
53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s inflation is rather on th economies Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change
Latest
Pakistan Ͳ Jun Russia Ͳ Jun 7
India Ͳ Jun 6.7
Indonesia Ͳ Jun
6.5
Brazil Ͳ Jun 4.9
Vietnam Ͳ Jul
4.4
Philippines Ͳ Jun Hong Kong Ͳ Jun
3.6
Japan Ͳ Jun
3.6 3.3
Malaysia Ͳ Jun
3.0
Australia Ͳ Q2 China Ͳ Jun
2.3
Thailand Ͳ Jul
2.2
US Ͳ Jun
2.1
Singapore Ͳ Jun
1.8
South Korea Ͳ Jun
1.7
Taiwan Ͳ Jun
1.6
Euro Area Ͳ Jun Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
0.5
he low side compared to other
2014* 8.2
7.7
7.8
6.7
.3
8.4 6.4 6.6 5.6 4.2 3.6 2.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.6 0.7
54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Inflation at producer level decrea
Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI Percent 3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis
ased slightly and remained low
Chart 3.09b – YͲoͲY change in PPI by product July 2014, percent Petroluem products Energy Livestocks Metal Chemical Mechinery Other manu goods Crop Basic metals Leather & footware Transport equip NonͲmetallic mineral Forestry Forestry Pulp & paper Textile Food Electrical equip Fishing Rubber & plastic
7.6 6.2 4.8 3.4 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -6.8
55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
56
Credit market is still growing but Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
No
Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Depos Percent 100%
95.3%
94.9%
Jun-13
Jul-13
95%
95.7%
95.5%
95.0%
9
90%
Source: Bank of Thailand
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13 N
the pace has slowed down
M-o-M +0.5%
Y-o-Y +8.8%
ov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
it* ratio 97.8% 96.6%
96.3%
96.2%
95.0%
95.3%
Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
Feb-14 Mar-14
96.7%
Apr-14 May-14
57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Gross NPL continued to increase i and percent of total loan
Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Billion Baht
445
06YE
458
07YE
401
08YE
380
09YE
317
10YE
270
11Y
Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gros Percentage of Total Loans
7.47%
7.31% 5.29%
4.85% 3.60%
06YE
07YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
08YE
09YE
10YE
2.75
11Y
in 14/Q2 in both absolute value
ss NPLs Outstanding
0
256
267
YE
12YE
13YE
281
285
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3
ss NPLs Outstanding
5%
YE
2.26%
2.16%
12YE
13YE
2.26%
2.29%
2014/Q1 2014/Q2 2014/Q3 58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio decreased slig
Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial ba % of risk assets, at year end
15.8% 14.9% 13.3%
1
16.1% 14.8%
14.0%
13.9%
12.4%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign bra
Source: Bank of Thailand
ghtly in May
nks* Month End 16.8%
16.2%
15.7%
16.6% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0%
2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%
2014
15.2% 15.0%
2012
anches
2013
14.8%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s real interest rate is slig Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Aug 1st 2014
3M riskͲfree interest rates 10.8
Brazil Pakistan
10.2
Russia
10.0 8.6
India
8.2
Indonesia 6.0
Vietnam 4.7
China 3.4
Malaysia Australia
2.7
South Korea
2.5 1.9
Thailand
1.4
Philippines Taiwan
0.9
Hong Kong
0.4
Singapore
0.3
US
0.2
Euro Area
0.2
Japan
0.1
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
൞
ghtly negative
=
Expected 2014 inflation*
Real interest rates
6.6 2.5
7.7
3.3
6.7 0.2
8.4
1.8
6.4 0.4
5.6
2.3
2.4 0.2
3.2
0.0
2.7
0.8
1.7 -0.6
2.5 4.2
-2.8 -0.7
1.6 3.6 2.2 1.9
-3.2 -1.9 -1.7 -0.5
0.7 2.7
-2.6
60
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
SET went up 1% in July thanks to Chart 3.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly performance of SET index Percent change from prior month, at month end 4.9% 4.0%
3.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Chart 3.06b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0
D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14
Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis
E
foreign fund flow Chart 3.06c â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Change since Dec 31st 2013 Percent, as of July 30th 2014 23.2%
India (BSE)
20.0%
Pakistan (KSE)
19.1%
Indonesia (JSX)
16.9%
Thailand (SET) 9.7%
Taiwan (TWI) US (NAScomp)
6.9%
US (S&P 500)
6.6%
HK (Hang Seng)
6.1%
Singapore (STI)
5.9% 4.9%
Australia (All Ord.) S Korea (KOSPI)
3.5%
China (SSEA)
3.1%
US (DJIA)
1.8%
Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100)
1.6%
Malaysia (KLSE)
0.6%
France (CAC 40)
0.4%
Germany (DAX)
0.4%
UK (FTSE 100)
0.4%
Japan (Nikkei 225) -4.0% China (SSEB, $ terms) -5.3%
61 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
62
Lower budget and cash deficit as
Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash bala Percent
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp
1.4%
1.1%
0.0% 0.1%
-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
percentage of GDP in 2013
ance as percentage of nominal GDP
plus)
-0.3% -0.7%
%
-0.9% -2.0% -2.3%
-2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%
09FY
-4.1%
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY 63
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Budget surplus during the first 6 m than the same period in 2013 Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht
1,751
Revenue 1,109
1,241
0
-36
Budget balance -1,109
-1,277
1,390
1,455
1,498
-174
-100
-1,629
-1,598
1
1,484
110
-75 -364
-1,280
Expenditure
-1,849
-1,825
-1
04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
months of 2014, but still less
Monthly cumulative Budget balance (Billion Baht)
,902
2,078
2,153
100.0
50.0
0.0
2014 -50.0
-28 -412
-271 -100.0
2013
-150.0
-200.0
1,930 -2,489
-2,424
-250.0
-300.0
1FY 12FY 13FY
J F M A M J J A S O N D
64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
NonͲbudgetary deficit so far in 20
Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht
Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110
0
88
8
-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174
-3
04FY
05FY
06FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
07FY
08FY
014
plus)
14
-28 -75
-37 -96
-236 -266
-271
364 -401
-412 -466
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
13FY
'14/6mo
65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand budget deficit is expecte same as Indonesia
Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as pe 2014*, percent South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Euro Area US China Brazil Malaysia Vietnam
-5
India -6.8
Pakistan Japan
-8.0
Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist, Bank of Thailand
ed to be around 2.3% of GDP,
ercentage of GDP 1.0 0.8 0.7 -0.6 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -2.9 -3.0 -3.8 -4.0 -4.7 .2
66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
A slight increase in Public debt in
Chart 4.5a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt THB Trillion 6.0
5.0 Public debt from State Enterprises 4.0
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
3.0
2.0
Direct Government debt
1.0
0.0 2010 10%
2011
2012
2013
8%
8%
7%
Source: Public Debt Management Office
May-14 7%
Ext as
absolute term so far in 2014
Chart 4.5b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Composition of Public debt As percentage of nominal GDP 50% 45% 40%
Public debt from State Enterprises
35% 30%
Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt
25% 20% 15% 10%
Direct Government debt
5% 0%
2010
ternal debt percent of total
2011
2012
2013
May-14
67 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Thailand’s public debt is not high standard Chart 4.6 – Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2013 est. 1 Japan 3 Greece 4 Italy 5 Iceland 6 Portugal 7 Ireland 10 Singapore 11 Cyprus 12 Sudan 17 France 18 Spain 19 Egypt 20 United Kingdom 23 Canada 26 Germany 27 Hungary 29 Sri Lanka 31 Morocco 32 Austria 35 Netherlands 36 United States 39 Israel 44 El Salvador 45 Bahrain 46 Albania
22 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61
Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat
compared to international
26
ta
48 Brazil 53 Croatia 54 Finland 58 Pakistan 59 Malaysia 63 India 68 Philippines 70 Vietnam 71 Poland 77 Laos 78 Thailand 79 Argentina 88 Ukraine 93 Bhutan 94 Taiwan 99 Mexico 102 Turkey 105 Korea, South 106 Hong Kong 107 Switzerland 114 China 118 Bangladesh 123 Norway 128 Indonesia 148 Russia
59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8
Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule of thumb <60% of GDP
68
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
CONTENT
Executive summary
Growth
Income distribution
Stability
• The Thai Economy contracted in th Ͳ On the expenditure side, In contributed negatively to t Ͳ On the production side, Co the overall GDP growth • In June, Manufacturing production • Private consumption and Private In • Export grew in THB term, Import de • Monetary easing with policy rate o • Businesses were more pessimistic w • The consensus projection is betwee
• Unemployment rate increased sign is the lowest amongst leading econ • Thailand’s Income distribution is am improvement over the past two de • Except for only Bangkok, poverty h decade
• In July, Headline inflation dropped way in price increase compared to • Banking system is quite stable. Ban increased slightly in 2Q14. Liquidity • Lower budget surplus in the first 6 Public debt is increasing but not too • Balance of Payment went negative External debt has been increasing b
e first quarter of 2014 nvestment and Private consumption were affected and he overall growth ontraction in Manufacturing and Construction has dragged
declined again nvestment also went back to their declining trend ecreased. Tourist arrival dropped. n downward trend while Fiscal spending is limited while Industries and consumers less pessimistic in June en 1.5%Ͳ2.6% for 2014 and 4.5Ͳ5.5% for 2015
nificantly to 1.15% in June but Thailand’s unemployment rate nomies mong the worst in Asia but there has been overall ecades, except for only in Bangkok eadcount and poverty rate have declined over the last
to 2.2% while Core inflation rose to 1.8%. Meat is leading the a year ago. nk’s capital ratio decreased but is still high. Total system’s NPL y tightened slightly as loan expanded. months of 2014, compared to the same period in 2013. o worrying just yet. in the first 6 months of 2014, due mainly to capital outflow. but still not dangerous. THB appreciated in July.
69
Balance of Payment went negativ due mainly to capital outflow
Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decompositio Billion USD
31.3 24.1
5.3 1.2 -1.1 -5.0 09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
13FY
14/6mo
ve in the first 6 months of 2014, Trade Balance (F.O.B) 32.6
on
29.8 17.0
09FY
10FY
11FY
12.6 6.0
6.4
12FY
13FY
14/6mo
Net service income & transfer
+
-10.7
-3.8
-7.5
-9.1
12FY
13FY
-12.9 -19.7
09FY
10FY
11FY
14/6mo
Net Capital Movement + errors and omissions 21.3 6.7
2.2
-2.3
-2.9 09FY
10FY
11FY
-9.8 12FY
13FY
14/6mo
70
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Strong Asian export engines refle surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2014 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q1 Taiwan Ͳ Q1 6.3%
Malaysia Ͳ Q1
4.9%
Vietnam Ͳ 2012
4.5%
South Korea Ͳ Jun Hong Kong Ͳ Q1
2.8%
Philippines Ͳ Mar
2.7%
Thailand Ͳ Q1
2.5%
Euro Area Ͳ May
2.5%
China Ͳ Q2
2.1%
Russia Ͳ Q2
2.0% 0.2%
Japan Ͳ May Pakistan Ͳ Q2
-2.1%
Australia Ͳ Q1
-2.1%
US Ͳ Q1
-2.3%
India Ͳ Q1 Indonesia Ͳ Q1 Brazil Ͳ Jun Note: (*) The Economist Poll
Source: The Economist
-2.8% -3.3% -3.7%
ecting in huge current account
Last 12 months, USD Billion 19.5%
56.3
11.9%
61.9 14.3 9.1 87.8 4.5 9.7 4.9 310.1 163.6 51.5 2.6 -2.9 -40.9 -405.9 -32.4 -27.3 -81.2
71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
External debt almost unchanged
Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD 160 120 80 40 0
05YE
06YE
07YE
08YE
09YE
Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP
37.0%
05YE
38.5%
06YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
35.4%
07YE
31.4%
28.8%
08YE
09YE
in the first quarter of 2014
E
10YE
35.2%
33.7%
10YE
11YE
%
E
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
38.0%
38.2%
38.2%
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Structure of external debt does n
Chart 5.11a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; External debt breakdown Private vs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities
13%
16%
87%
84%
10YE
11YE
Source: Bank of Thailand
20%
18%
18%
80%
82%
82%
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
ot change from end of last year
Chart 5.11b – External debt breakdown LongͲTerm vs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term
50%
50%
10YE
45%
44%
43%
43%
55%
56%
57%
57%
11YE
12YE
13YE
14/1Q
73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Capability to repay external debt concern as debt service ratio is lo Chart 5.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves As % of ST external debt
418% 370% 340% 312%
09YE
10YE
11YE
12YE
279%
279%
13YE
14/1Q
Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
deteriorated but not yet a ow and reserves at healthy level Chart 5.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debt service ratio* Percent
7.6%
4.7% 4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
13FY
14/1Q
3.4%
09FY
10FY
11FY
12FY
74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
Net International reserves increas still considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD
154.1 55.9
2005
106.5
118.0
2007
2008
73.9
2006
2009
Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as numbe
13.8 9.1 5.7
2005
6.9
2006
2007
7.9
2008
2009
Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
sed slightly so far this year and
191.7
206.4
205.8
2011
2012
190.2
191.9
2013
Jun-14
1
9
2010
er of months of import**
8
12.6 10.8
9
2010
the last 12 months
2011
9.9
2012
9.1
2013
9.9
Jun-14
75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com
THB appreciated significantly in Ju
Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate 2007=100
106.0
Baht appreciates MͲoͲM
105.0
+1.1%
104.0
103.0
102.0
101.0
100.0
YͲoͲY
Ͳ1.1%
Baht depreciates Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
99.0
98.0 Jul-14
Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $
Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis
uly
e
0
0
0
0
0
Chart 5.17b – YͲoͲY change in FX rate* Percentage change in avg. selling rate as of July 31st 2014 IDR Ͳ 2.9809
8.3
JPY Ͳ 31.4166
2.8
MXN Ͳ 2.4428
1.0
VND Ͳ 0.0015
0.0
CNY Ͳ 5.2404
-1.0
TWD Ͳ 1.0707
-1.8
0
USD Ͳ 32.1317
-2.0
0
PHP Ͳ 0.7509
-2.7
INR Ͳ 0.5704
-2.9
EUR Ͳ 43.1544
-3.0
MYR Ͳ 10.1781
-3.7
SGD Ͳ 25.9187
-4.0
AUD Ͳ 30.0943 KRW Ͳ 0.0314 GBP Ͳ 54.4555
-5.0 -10.2 -11.7
Baht depreciates
Baht appreciates 76
www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com