Charting Thailand's Economy Monthly Brief, December 2015 by Ake Saroj

Charting Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Economy

MONTHLY

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December 2015 ISSN: 2286-6132

Charting Thailand’s Economy Monthly Brief, December 2015 Publication Date: December 2nd, 2015 Number of pages: 73

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ASK THE EDITOR ChartingASEAN™ team consists of editors, analysts, and researchers. For any questions report, you can contact the chief editor directly at editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com.

DISCLAIMER The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please no findings, conclusions and recommendations that ChartingASEAN™ delivers will be based on information gather from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As su ChartingASEAN™ can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subseq incorrect.

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About This Report This report is designed to chart out the economic outlook of Thailand on a monthly basis. It is ideal for corporate management, investors as well as anyone interested in the second largest economy in ASEAN.

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CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

• Thailand GDP grew only 2.9% in 3Q15, in line with the ‘new • Tourism was by far the main driver of growth on the • Service was the main driver, while agriculture was th • Manufacturing production continues to lag behind last year’ • Private consumption and Private Investment recovered • Import declined faster than Export. Tourism was clearly affec • Unemployment rate increased slightly but stayed below 1% • Policy interest rate remains on the downward trend to boost • Businesses turned optimistic, while Industries and Consume • Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7Ͳ3.4% for 2015 and 3.5

Stability

• Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by products actually increased over the past 12 months. • Bank’s loan is still growing, although slowly, and liquidity is s capital ratio remained high. NPL continues to increase. • Budget deficit worsened in the first 10 months. Public debt a worrying yet. • Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, thanks to trade s been decreasing. THB appreciated 1% in November.

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normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

Reading This Report This report is designed to be read like a corporate presentation. Readers can easily follow the content point by point with detailed charts for each point. Explanation is provided on the right side bar of each page.

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Thailand’s GDP expanded at sustainable pace growth yearͲonͲyear Chart 1.05 – Historical Real GDP growth rate Annual growth, percent

7.5%

7.2%

7.3%

6.3% 5.4% 5.0% 4.2%

2.8% 1.7% 0.8%

0.9%

-0.7% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

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e in 3Q15 with 2.9%

Last 5 Quarters

Real GDP growth This chart gives the long-term perspective of the historical GDP growth of Thailand. It also gives the latest annual growth during the last four quarters. It shows the real growth, which already excludes the effect from inflation. GDP calculations are prepared by Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board and released quarterly.

3.0%

2.8% 2.9%

2.1% 1.0%

Historical growth for the Thai economy The cumulative annual growth rate between 2003-2014 was 3.4%. During the last 10 years, only one year (2009) that registered a negative growth. Growth in 2010 and 2012 were exceptionally high, representing the Vshape recovery from the global sub-prime debt and the country’s flood crisis respectively. Thailand’s GDP expanded at sustainable pace in 3Q15 with 2.9% growth year-on-year.

3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

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Tourism was by far the main driver of growth

Chart 1.08a – Real growth by expenditure, 3Q15 Chart 1.08b – Ex YearͲonͲYear percentage change

Contributions to t

X (services)

17.5

GDP

2.9

1.7

GDP X (services) M (goods)

1.0

M (services)

0.8

I (capital) X (goods) M (goods) I

-1.2 -1.9 -3.3 -4.0

M (services) I (capital) I (Inventory) X (goods) Discrpncy

Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = Chang G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

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in 3Q15

xpenditure Contributions, 3Q15

otal Real GDP growth 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.9

Source of Growth – Expenditure side Chart A shows the real growth rate of each expenditure. Chart B shows each expenditure’s contribution to the overall GDP growth. The contribution from each sector must add up to the overall GDP growth. GDP calculations are prepared by Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board and released quarterly.

0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7

Growth drivers for the Thai economy in 3Q15 Chart A shows that Tourism (X of services) grew the most in 3Q15 with 17.5% growth. Chart B shows that it also contributed the most to the overall growth in 3Q15. Decreasing in export of goods was the main drag on the overall growth.

-1.2 -2.3

e in inventory

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Service was the main driver in 3Q15, while ag drag on the economy Chart 1.06a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real growth by sector, 3Q15

Chart 1.06b

Year-on-Year percentage change

Contributions to

Hotel&Res

10.9

Construction

7.7

GDP Transport

Transport

7.1

Trading

Health&Social

6.8

Hotel&Res

6.5

Financial

Financial Other social

5.4

Utilities

4.8

Trading

3.9

Private HH

3.1

GDP

2.9

RealEstate

2.5

Manufacture RealEstate Construction Utilities Health&Social Other social PublicAdmin

Education

1.1

Education

PublicAdmin

1.0

Mining

0.9

Private HH

Manufacture

0.8

Fishing

Fishing Agriculture

-3.1 -5.8

Source: NESDB; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Agriculture Stat diff

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griculture remained a

b – Sectoral contributions, 3Q15 total Real GDP growth

2.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2

Source of Growth – Production side Chart A shows the real growth rate of value added from each production sector. Chart B shows each sector’s contribution to the overall GDP growth. The contribution from each sector must add up to the overall growth. GDP calculations are prepared by Office of The National Economic and Social Development Board and released quarterly.

0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Most contributing sectors for the Thai economy in 3Q15 Chart A says that Hotel & Restaurant have grown most from 3Q14 to 3Q15, while Agriculture dropped the most. Chart B looks at the contributions to total growth from all sectors. Most sectors contributed positively to 3Q15 growth, except Agriculture.

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CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

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The new MPI series show a closer trend of mo and 2015, a big improvement from prior serie Chart 1.10 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Manufacturing Production Index (2011=100)

Monthl 125.0

111.6

114.1 108.3

120.0

100.0 115.0

110.0

105.0

100.0

95.0

90.0

2011

2012

2013

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

2014

onthly MPI in 2014 es

ly Average

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Manufacturing Production Index is a composite index calculated by the Office of Industrial Economics, Ministry of Industry. The composite includes all industries and weighted by their value added. The year 2011 is used as the base year and the figure is released monthly.

2014

2015

F M A M J

Latest development Starting from October 2015, the MPI has a new series using 2011 as a base year. We are questioning the logic of picking 2011 as a new base year as it was the year of one of the worst floods Thailand has faced in its entire history. Unsurprisingly, the new series actually shows improvement in MPI. However, in October it went below and dropped 4.2% compared to last year.

A S O N D © ChartingTHAILAND™

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Most sectors had their production decreased

Chart 1.11a – YͲonͲY change in MPI by sector

Chart 1.11b –

October 2015, percent

October 2015, perc

Furniture

27.0

Petroleum

9.2

Leather

Electrical

8.3

Food & Bev

Vehicles

8.3

Paper

Transport Equip

0.7

Food & Bev

-0.4

Apparel

Leather

-1.6

Machineries

Transport Equip

-3.2

Vehicles

Precision instru

-3.6

Wood products

Machineries

-4.8

Textiles

Rubber&Plastic

-6.2

Chemical

Textiles

-6.7

Precision instru

Metal products

-7.7

Rubber&Plastic

Mineral

-9.1

Electrical

Chemical

-9.7

Basic Matals

-11.9

Mineral

Electronic

-13.7

Tobacco

-13.8

Metal products

Apparel Office automate

-17.3

Office automate

-25.4

Wood products -82.0 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Petroleum Electronic

from a year ago

– MͲonͲM change in MPI by sector

cent

9.4 7.2 6.5

MPI by sectors

5.9

Chart A shows the year-on-year change in Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) by sector, that is comparing the MPI for the latest month with the MPI for the same month of the previous year. Chart B shows the month-on-month change in MPI by sector, that is comparing the MPI for the latest month with the MPI for the previous month.

3.7 3.0 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -2.9 -3.1 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0

Latest development Most sectors had their production decreased from a year ago. Wood products dropped the most while Furniture, Petroleum, Electrical products, Vehicles and Paper were the only sectors with positive growth.

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Capacity utilization rate dropped slightly in O

Chart 1.12a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Overall Capacity Utilization Rate

Chart 1.12b â&#x20AC;&#x201C;

2011 based, Percent

October 2015, percen

70% 68% 66% 64%

Normal

62% 60% 58%

Seasonally adjusted

56% 54% 52% 50% May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Sep-15

Oct-15

Petroleum Electronic Electrical Leather Chemical Paper Rubber&Plastic Office automate Mineral Metal products Transport Equip Food & Bev Furniture Vehicles Precision instru Apparel Textiles Wood products Office automate Tobacco Basic Matals

ctober

Capacity utilization rate by sector

nt 80% 78% 75% 73% 72% 68% 67% 64% 61% 60%

Capacity Utilization rate Capacity utilization rate is a composite index of the capacity utilization rate of all major industries. The index is prepared by the Office of Industrial Economics, Ministry of Industry and released monthly. Chart A shows the composite Capacity Utilization rate in the last 6 months. Chart B shows the Capacity Utilization rate of the last month by industries. Note that Capacity Utilization rate now uses 2011 as a base year.

58% 55% 54% 52% 51%

Latest development Capacity utilization rate has decreased to 59.9% in October. Petroleum has the highest capacity utilization rate at 80% while Basic metals has the lowest at 42%.

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Thailand’s latest MPI change was among the l

Chart 1.13 – Manufacturing Production Index Latest, percent change on year ago Vietnam Ͳ Nov China Ͳ Oct Malaysia Ͳ Sep India Ͳ Sep Philippines Ͳ Sep Pakistan Ͳ Sep Euro Area Ͳ Sep South Korea Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Q2 Indonesia Ͳ Sep US Ͳ Oct

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

-1.2

Japan Ͳ Oct

-1.4

Russia Ͳ Oct

-3.4

Thailand Ͳ Oct

-4.2

Singapore Ͳ Oct

-5.4

Taiwan Ͳ Oct Brazil Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist

-6.2 -10.8

lowest on the list

8.9 5.6 5.1 3.6 3.6 2.3 1.7

Change in MPI in the world Year-on-year change in Manufacturing Production Index from the latest period across major economies. The chart shows the current state of manufacturing production in the world. The figures are compiled by The Economist magazine.

1.5 1.2 0.7

Latest development 7 out of 18 major economies had negative MPI growth during the last period reported. Thailand’s negative growth of -4.2% was the forth lowest on the list.

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CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

Private consumption dropped in October but year’s level Chart 1.14a – Composite Private Consumption Index

Cha

(2010=100)

Oct 20

125.0

120.0

2015 115.0

NonͲre 110.0

2014

Composite

105.0 100.0

NonͲdu 95.0

SemiͲdu

90.0 85.0

Du 80.0

Source: Bank of Thailand

was still above last

rt 1.14b – YͲonͲY change

015 vs 2014, percent

Composite Private Consumption Index

ervices

8.3

sident

2.2

Index

2.2

rables

1.4

rables

-2.2

A composite index representing private consumption conditions. It comprises of 5 components including Non-durables Index, Semi-durables Index, Durables Index, Services Index, and Non-residents expenditure Index. Prepared by the Bank of Thailand using 2010 as the base year and is released monthly and each component was seasonally adjusted. Chart A shows the Composite Index movement over the latest 2 years. Chart B shows the annual change of each component.

Latest development Private consumption dropped in October but was still above last year’s level. However, durables and semi-durables goods consumption are still lagging.

-7.2

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Private Investment continued to pick up and h year’s level Chart 1.15a – Private Investment Index

Cha

(2010=100)

Oct 20

122.0

Domestic M (2010

121.0

2015 120.0

2014

Import (201

119.0

118.0

117.0

Domestic Sa

116.0

Constructio

115.0

C p

114.0

Note: (*) figures are 1Ͳmonth delayed Source: Bank of Thailand

has been above last

rt 1.15b – YͲonͲY change

015 vs 2014, percent

Composite Private Investment Index

Machinery sales* prices, Baht)

10.6

of Capital Goods 0 prices, Baht)

4.0

Composite Index

c Commercial Car ales Index

1.5

-2.8

on Material Sales -4.1 Index

onstruction Area -6.2 permitted (sqm)

A composite index representing private investment conditions. It is constructed from 5 components including Construction Area Permitted in Municipal Zone (9-month moving average), Construction Material Sales Index (3-month moving average), Imports of Capital Goods at 2010 Prices, Domestic Machinery Sales at 2010 Prices, Domestic Car Sales Index for investment (3month moving average.). The index is prepared by the Bank of Thailand, using 2010 as the base year. Chart A shows the Composite Index movement over the latest 2 years. Chart B shows the annual change of each component.

Latest development Private Investment continued to pick up and has been above last year’s level. Domestic Machinery Sales increased the most from a year ago in October.

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FDI value increased 27% in the first 9 months

Chart 5.14 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Foreign Direct Investment Million USD

7,000

15,936 6,000

14,747 12,899

5,000

4,000

8,562 3,000

6,411 2,000

3,720 1,000

2,474

08FY

09FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

of 2015

Monthly cumulative FDI*

Foreign Direct Investment

2015

2014

Foreign direct investment (FDI) reflects the lasting interests of Non-residents of an economy in a resident entity. A direct investor may invest in equity capital, lending to affiliates, or reinvested earnings. Investment in equity is treated as a direct investment when the direct investors own 10 per cent or more of the voting shares for an enterprise or the equivalent for an unincorporated enterprise. Data is compiled by BOT. The left chart shows the annual figures. The right chart shows the cumulative monthly figures for the current year and the year before.

Latest development FDI value increased 27% in the first 9 months of 2015.

F M A M

S O N D © ChartingTHAILAND™

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BOI’s net application almost doubled in 2014, months of 2015, it has almost been wiped ou

Chart 5.15 – BOI net application of foreign direct investment* Billion Baht

1,023

648 525 396 236

10FY

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

13FY

14FY

, but for the first 8 t

BOI net application Value is derived from total investment of all projects which have foreign equity participation (shown by registered capital amount) of one particular nation or the sum of all foreign registered capital from more than two nations of at least 10%. The chart shows the value of BOI net application for projects defined as FDI.

Latest development BOI’s net application almost doubled in 2014, but for the first 8 months of 2015, it has almost been wiped out, registering only THB 50 billion.

288

2014/8M

2015/8M

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FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has declin

Chart 5.16 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BOI net application of FDI* breakdown by country Percent of total

11%

Others

27%

4% 10%

USA ANIEs ASEAN Europe

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

21%

2% 6% 10%

17 58%

Japan

49%

54%

11FY

12FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

13FY

14F

ned sharply in 2014

group

19%

13%

BOI net application by country BOI net application of foreign direct investment projects breakdown by country. FDI from Japan, the biggest source, has declined sharply in 2014.

30%

20%

2015/8M

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Condominium registration is the only key pro has increased so far this year Chart 1.16a – YͲonͲY change

Chart 1.16b –

First 9 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, percent

Sep vs Aug 2015,

Condo unit registered

Value of land transaction

28.4

-6.2

New housing unit

-8.8

Constr. Area in municipal

-9.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

-47.0

perty indicator that

– MͲonͲM change

percent

-27.5

Key property indicators

-0.8

Chart A compares key property indicators during this year to the current month to those in the same period of the previous year. Chart B compares key property indicators in the current month to those of the previous month.

Latest development Condominium registration is the only key property indicator that has increased so far this year.

-5.1

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CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

Improved trade balance so far in 2015 is the c declining more than export Chart 5.03a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Trade balance* in THB

Chart 5.0

First 10 months, Billion Baht

First 10 mon 250

7,000 6,000

200 5,000 150

4,000 3,000

2014 2015 -1.5%

-7.8%

100

-5.3

2,000 50 1,000 0

0 -1,000

Export

â&#x20AC;&#x201C;

Import

Trade balance

-50

Expo

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjustments (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment and exchange rate conversion

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

case of import

3b – Trade balance* in USD ths, Billion USD

Trade balance Foreign trade statistics refer to transactions involving movements of goods out of or into the Kingdom of Thailand over a specific time period. It is not equal to the one shown on the Balance of Payment chart due to a few adjustments. The charts show the breakdown of Trade Balance into Export and Import.

ort

-11.3%

Latest development Improved trade balance in both THB and USD terms in the first 10 months of 2015. This is the case of import declining more than export.

–

Import

Trade balance

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Improved Export situation over the past two case of THB depreciation and translation Chart 5.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Export in THB

Chart 5.0

Billion Baht

Billion USD

675

2015 650

625 19 600 18

2014 575

17 550

525

500

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

months has been the

4b – Export in USD

Export (custom basis) Bank of Thailand (BOT) obtains electronic copy of the data and tabulates them into exports classified by the BOT’s Economic Classification (EC), which are then categorized into broad product group. Few adjustments are then made to bring the Customs-based data in line with the balance of payments concept.

2014

Latest development The improvement in export in the last 2 months were largely the result of exchange rate translation. The USD value of export has always lagged last year’s level.

2015

D © ChartingTHAILAND™

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In the first 10 months, Export dropped 1.5% w Chemicals the main drags

Chart 5.05a – YTD annual change in Export in Baht Chart 5.05b First 10 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, percent Total export Optical instru Other export Automotive Jewellery Machinery Electrical Electronics Other manufacturing Photo instru Metal Agro products Forestry Toiletries Apparels Agriculture Footware PetroͲchemical Furniture ReͲexports Fishery Aircrafts Chemicals Petroleum Mining

Contributions t

-1.5 37.1 34.8 6.5 5.2 3.5 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.0 -0.7 -1.9 -2.2 -3.2 -4.4 -6.4 -7.9 -8.0 -8.7 -13.8 -15.6 -16.5 -23.9 -24.1 -46.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Total export Automotive Other export Optical instru Machinery Electronics Jewellery Electrical Other manufacturing Photo instru Forestry ReͲexports Footware Metal Toiletries Furniture Fishery Apparels Aircrafts Mining Agro products PetroͲchemical Agriculture Chemicals Petroleum

with Petroleum and

b – Sectoral contributions

to total export growth -1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5

YTD change in Export by product The left chart shows the year-to-date change in Baht term of export value by product group. The right chart shows each group’s contribution to the total export growth.

Latest development In the first 10 months, Export dropped 1.5% with Petroleum and Chemicals the main drags.

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NAFTA is the only growing markets for Thai ex

Chart 5.07a – Export by country

Chart

Percent of total export in THB term

In THB

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

᪛ 7.1

᪛ 6.9

Rest of the world

18.1

17.4

18.1

16.7

Middle East

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.2

Japan

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

9.6

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

10.3

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

12.0

East Asia exͲJapan

20.4

21.0

21.2

20.3

ASEAN

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

26.1

100% =

EU NAFTA

᪛ 7.3 (Trillion)

16.5

Rest of

East Asi

M 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

14FY

xport so far in 2015

t 5.07b – Change in Export term, First 10 months of 2015 vs those of 2014

NAFTA

8.7%

f the world

-0.6%

a ex Japan

-2.2%

-2.8%

ASEAN

-3.2%

Japan

-4.1%

Middle East

Export destinations The left chart shows Export value (in Baht term) broken down by country of destination. The right chart shows change in export value to each destination.

Latest development NAFTA is the only growing markets for Thai export in the first 10 months of 2015. Middle East was the hardest hit market with export declining 8.8% from a year ago.

-8.8%

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Big decrease in Import so far in 2015 due mai fuel import

Chart 5.09a – YTD annual change in Import in Baht Chart 5.09b First 10 months of 2015 vs those of 2014, percent

Total import

Contributions t

Total imp

-7.8

Consumer goods

5.5

Capital goods

0.3

Consumer goo

Capital goo

Intermediate Ͳ Non fuel

-1.3

Oth

Others

-1.4

Intermediate Ͳ Non f

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

-35.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Intermediate Ͳ F

nly to decrease in

b – Sectoral contributions

to total import growth

ort

YTD change in Import by product class

-7.8

ods

0.5

ods

0.1

Latest development

ers

-0.1

uel

-0.5

uel

The left chart shows the year-to-date change (in Baht term) of import value by product group. The right chart shows each group’s contribution to the total import growth.

Import has decreased 7.8% in the first 10 months of 2015, due mainly to the decrease in Fuel import.

-7.7

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Most categories have gained more share this of Fuel Chart 5.08 – Import by economic classification Percent of total import in Baht term

Ѯ 5.9

Ѯ 7.0

Ѯ 7.8

Ѯ 7.7

Others

10.2

12.4

11.4

12.2

Capital goods

20.9

21.3

24.4

23.3

Intermediate – NonͲFuel

44.0

40.0

37.5

35.7

Intermediate Ͳ Fuel

17.4

18.9

20.8

Consumer goods

7.5

7.8

8.0

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

year at the expense

Ѯ 7.4

Ѯ 5.7

8.1

8.4

(Trillion)

Import composition 24.2

26.1

Import value (in Baht term) breakdown by economic classification into Consumer goods, Intermediate goods, Capital goods and Others.

Latest development 38.3

40.7

20.8

15.1

8.7

9.8

14FY

15/10MO

Most categories have gained more share this year at the expense of Fuel.

www.ChartingThailand.com

Tourist arrivals dropped significantly after the incident Chart 5.18 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International Tourist Arrivals Million visits

26.5

CAGR

10.6%

24.8 22.4 19.2 15.9

14.5 11.7

14.1

11.5

10.0

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY

Source: Department of Tourism

e Bangkok bomb

Monthly arrivals Million visits 3.0

2015

Tourist arrivals Number of the international tourist arrivals into Thailand. Prepared by Department of Tourism using data from Immigration Bureau, Police Department.

2.5

2.0

2014

Latest development Tourist arrivals dropped significantly after the Bangkok bomb incident. For the first 10 months, Tourist arrivals still grew impressively at 24.2%.

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

www.ChartingThailand.com

China and Malaysia have been the two highes for tourists in 2015 Chart 5.19a International Tourist Arrivals by country of nationality

Chart 5.19b 10 Highest Chan by country of n

Percent of total

First 10 months of

Rest of world Americas

Europe

East Asia

15.6 5.3

27.9

51.2

10FY

14.7 5.0

26.5

53.8

11FY

13.8 4.8

25.3

56.0

12FY

11.9

China

4.4

4.5

Malaysia

23.8

59.9

13FY

24.8

58.8

14FY

Source: Department of Tourism; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Korea

191.3

Hong Kong

185.3

Taiwan

161.5

Vietnam

154.9

Japan

122.3

India

120.8

Singapore

99.8

Laos

82.1

st growing markets

nge in International Tourist Arrivals ationality

f 2015 vs those of 2014, Thousands 2,982.7 875.9

Tourist arrivals by nationality Chart A shows the composition of international tourist arrivals by their nationalities grouped by region. Chart B shows the top 10 highest change in arrivals by country and the percent of total arrival change.

Latest development Structure of tourist nationalities has changed a bit over the years. East Asia has been the largest group in the last six years and the figure is increasing every year. China and Malaysia have been the two highest growing markets for tourists in 2015.

www.ChartingThailand.com

CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

Unemployment rate increased slightly in Octo below 1% Chart 2.08 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemployment rate Percent

1.83

1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04 0.84 0.68

0.66

0.72

0 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 12-Avg 13-Avg 14-Avg

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand

ober but was still

Monthly Average

Unemployment rate

1.40

1.20

1.00

2015

0.80

0.60

2014

0.40

Unemployment rate calculated from labor Force Survey conducted and compiled by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Unemployment rate equals unemployed persons divided by total labor force. Unemployed persons is defined as persons with the age of 15 years and over who during the week in which the survey is conducted, do not work, have no job, business enterprise or farm of their own. Persons in this category include those who are looking for a job, applying for a job or waiting to be called to work during the past 30 days prior to the interview date and those who are not looking for work during the past 30 days prior to the interview date, but are otherwise available for work during the 7 days prior to the interview date. Total labor force comprises current labor force and seasonally inactive labor force.

Latest development Unemployment rate increased slightly in October but was still below 1%

0.20

www.ChartingThailand.com

Thailand’s unemployment rate is lowest comp leading economies Chart 2.09 – Unemployment rate Latest, percent

Thailand Ͳ Oct Singapore Ͳ Q3

0.9 2.0

South Korea Ͳ Oct

3.1

Japan Ͳ Oct

3.1

Malaysia Ͳ Sep Hong Kong Ͳ Oct Vietnam Ͳ 2014 Taiwan Ͳ Oct China Ͳ Q3 India Ͳ 2013 US Ͳ Oct Russia Ͳ Oct Australia Ͳ Oct Pakistan Ͳ 2014 Indonesia Ͳ Q3 Philippines Ͳ Q3 Brazil Ͳ Oct Euro Area Ͳ Sep Source: The Economist

3.2 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.5

paring to other

Unemployment rates in the world A comparison of unemployment rates across different countries (economies) compiled by The Economist magazine.

Latest development Thailand’s unemployment rate is the lowest among leading economies. Euro area still has the highest unemployment rate, followed by Brazil.

www.ChartingThailand.com

CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

No change in policy interest rate in October

Chart 3.01a – BOT’s policy rate

Chart 3.01b – BI 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50%

Dec-14

1.25% Nov-15

Chart 3.01c – Saving deposit rate*

Dec-14

Chart 3.01d – Co 10.00% 7.50% 5.00%

Max

2.50%

Min Dec-14

0.00% Nov-15

Dec-14

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

BOR overnight rate 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.25% Nov-15

Interest rates Chart A shows the Bank of Thailand’s policy rate (1-day repo rate) over the last 12 months. Chart B shows the Inter bank overnight rate over the last 12 months. Chart C shows the minimum and maximum of the saving deposit rate over the last 12 months. Chart D shows the minimum and maximum of commercial bank’s MLR over the last 12 months.

Latest development

ommercial bank MLR* 10.00%

Max 7.50%

Min

No change in policy interest rate in November. It’s worth noting that the BOT’s policy rate is at 1.50%, which is quite low. This could limit the option to further stimulate growth through monetary policy (by lowering interest rate further).

www.ChartingThailand.com

Government spending in the first 10 months o

Chart â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht

2500

2000

2015

1500

1000

500

Source: Bank of Thailand

of 2015 increased 9%

Government Spending The current government is trying to boost the economy by fiscal spending. In the first 8 months of 2015, government spending increased 9% from the same period last year. While the effectiveness of such program is still in doubt, we see bigger spending from the government in the calendar year of 2015.

2014

D © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

Businesses turned optimistic while Industries in October Chart 1.18a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Business Sentiment Index* 100

Chart 1.18b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; T 200

Better

100 50.3

49.1

46.4

47.3

50.2 85.4

Worse

0 May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Note: (*) Below is the interpretation of the index: Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries

May-15

Jun

Note: (*) Below is th Index = 100 Index > 100 Index < 100

s was less pessimistic

Thai Industries Sentiment Index** Business and Thai Industries Sentiment Indices

4.0

83.0

82.4

82.8

84.7

Chart A shows Business Sentiment Index has been compiled with BOT survey data of 1,500 businesses. Index = 50 indicates that business sentiment remains stable. Index > 50 indicates that business sentiment has improved. Index < 50 indicates that business sentiment has worsened. Chart B shows Thai Industries Sentiment Index, from The Federation of Thai Industries survey of more than 1,000 industrial enterprises. Index = 100 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable. Index > 100 indicates that industries sentiment has improved. Index < 100 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened.

Latest development

n-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

he interpretation of the index: 0 indicates that industries sentiment remains stable 0 indicates that industries sentiment has improved 0 indicates that industries sentiment has worsened

Businesses turned optimistic for the first time in 5 months as the BSI went above 50 in October. Industries, meanwhile, was less pessimistic as the TSI improved but was still below the cut off level.

www.ChartingThailand.com

Consumers were less pessimistic in October

Chart 1.17 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Consumer Confidence Index 100

100

Overall

Better

On job

Better

50 Worse

Worse

0 Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Note: (*) The index ranges from 0 to 100 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month Source: Ministry of Commerce

Oct-15

100

On future income Consumer Confidence Index Prepared by Ministry of Commerce through monthly consumer survey nationwide. The index ranges from 0 to 100. 50 means consumer confidence is equal to those of the prior month. Over 50 means consumer confidence is better than those of the prior month. Under 50 means consumer confidence is worse than those of the prior month.

Better 50 Worse

Latest development Consumers were less pessimistic in October as the overall index increased from 35.4 to 36.2. As the index is still below the cut off level, consumers are still pessimistic about the economy. 0 Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

www.ChartingThailand.com

CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

NESDB revised down 2015 slightly in Novemb

Chart 1.03a – Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.03b –

For 2015, Annual percentage change

For 2016, Annual pe 6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50

4.00 The Economist poll

FPO

NESDB BOT

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00 A-15

M-15

J-15

A-15

S-15

O-15

N-15

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Economist

A-15

M-15

J-1

Foreca

ber

– Real GDP growth projections

ercentage change

6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50 The Economist poll 4.00

FPO BOT

3.50

NESDB 3.00

2.50

Real GDP growth projections Real GDP growth projections from Bank of Thailand, National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) and the weekly poll conducted by the Economist magazine. The charts also show growth projections as of past dates, which highlight any significant change in projections from each of the forecasters. The changes in projections normally reflect the economic outlook as seen by each forecaster.

Growth projections for the Thai economy NESDB revised down 2015 slightly after it released 3Q15 GDP figures. Consensus growth forecast is now 2.7-3.4% for 2015 and 3.5-4.0% for 2016.

2.00 J-15

A-15

S-15

O-15

N-15

www.ChartingThailand.com

Growth for Thailand is projected to be around pack but quite low compared to most ASEAN Chart 1.04a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Real GDP growth projections

Chart 1.04

2015, Annual % change, as of Nov 30th 2015

2016, Annual

India China Philippines Vietnam Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Taiwan Singapore South Korea Hong Kong US Australia Euro Area Japan Brazil Russia

India Vietnam 6.9 China 6.4 Philippines 6.3 Malaysia 5.7 Indonesia 5.4 Pakistan 4.7 Thailand 3.4 Singapore 3.2 South Korea 2.9 Taiwan 2.4 Australia 2.4 US 2.4 Hong Kong 2.3 Euro Area 1.5 Japan 0.7 Russia -0.4 Brazil -1.2 7.3

-2.8 -3.9

Source: The Economist

d the middle of the countries

4b – Real GDP growth projections % change, as of Nov 30th 2015

7.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.0

International real GDP growth projections Real GDP growth projection consensus for major economies in the world as a result of a weekly survey by the Economist magazine. It offers a good comparison across economies in the world.

4.7 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5

Growth outlook for the Thai economy According to the Economist poll, Thailand’s GDP growth is expected to be 3.4% for 2015 and 4.0% for 2016, around the middle when compared to other major and emerging economies, but quite low compared to most ASEAN countries.

2.1 1.7 1.2

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CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was hea energy price Chart 3.07a – YͲoͲY change in CPI

Chart 3.07b –

Percent

Nov 2015, percent

Veg

1.50%

Tobacco & a

Food away from

1.00%

Recreation & Edu

Core*

Medic

0.50%

Prepared food at

Apparel and foo 0.00%

Non alcoholic bev -0.50%

Head line

Housing & furn

-1.00%

Sea

Eggs -1.50%

Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15

Transport & C

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

avily skewed by

YͲoͲY change in CPI by product & fruit

2.9

alcohol

1.8

Consumer Price Index

m home

1.4

ucation

1.3

al care

0.9

t home

0.9

otware

0.5

verage

0.5

Latest development

Meat

0.5

nishing

0.1

Headline CPI suggests deflation but it was heavily skewed by energy price. CPI of most products actually increased from a year ago.

Rice

0.1

soning

-0.1

& milk

-0.9

Commu

Energy

CPI is the general price level of goods and services purchased by consumers. Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of Commerce. Available in various definitions and by product groups. Change in CPI is normally used as main indicator for inflation.

-6.1 -14.9 © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

Along with Singapore, Thailand’s latest CPI is year ago Chart 3.08 – Consumer Price Index Annual percentage change

Latest Russia Ͳ Oct

15.6

Brazil Ͳ Oct

9.9

Indonesia Ͳ Oct

6.2

India Ͳ Oct

5.0

Malaysia Ͳ Oct

2.5

Hong Kong Ͳ Oct

2.4

Pakistan Ͳ Oct

1.6

Australia Ͳ Q3

1.5

China Ͳ Oct

1.3

South Korea Ͳ Oct

0.9

0.8

Philippines Ͳ Oct

0.4

Japan Ͳ Oct

0.3

Vietnam Ͳ Nov

0.3

Taiwan Ͳ Oct

0.3

0.1

US Ͳ Oct

0.2

0.3

Euro Area Ͳ Oct

0.1

Singapore Ͳ Oct

-0.8

Thailand Ͳ Nov

-1.0

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

0.7

0.2 0.8

still lower than a

2015* 15.0 8.9 6.4 5.0

Inflation in the world

2.5 3.1 3.9

.7 6

Change in Consumer Price Index across major economies in the world. Also the projected CPI change for the full year by the Economist poll.

Latest development Along with Singapore, Thailand’s latest CPI is still lower than a year ago.

2.4

2.5

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PPI continues to be lower than a year ago, de energy price Chart 3.09a – YͲoͲY change in PPI

Chart 3.09b –

Percent

Nov 2015, percent

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%

-5.0%

Jun-15

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15

Ene M Pulp & pa Other manu go W Tex Leather & footw Mechin Fore Fore NonͲmetallic min F C Electrical eq Chem Basic me Livesto Rubber & pla Fish Petroleum prod

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

spite a recovery in

YͲoͲY change in PPI by product

ergy Metal aper oods Wood xtile ware nery estry estry neral Food Crop quip mical etals ocks astic hing ucts

6.0 5.1 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0

Producer Price Index Inflation at the producer level is measured by a change in Producer Price Index. Prepared by Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices, Ministry of Commerce. The chart shows the changes of the overall PPI and also the PPI of each industry.

0.0 -0.1

Latest development

-0.3

PPI continues to be lower than a year ago, despite a recovery in energy price.

-1.2 -2.0 -3.3 -4.1 -4.2 -4.4 -9.9 -24.4 © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

This section is sponsored by

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

Bank’s loan is still growing and liquidity slight Chart 3.02a – Commercial Banks’ Loan THB billion 11,600 11,400 11,200 11,000 10,800 10,600 Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Chart 3.02b – Commercial Banks’ Loan/Deposit* ratio Percent 100% 96.4%

95.7%

95.4%

94.9%

94.8%

94.5%

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

95%

90% Oct-14

Source: Bank of Thailand

Nov-14

Dec-14

May-15

This section is sponsored by

tly improved

Bank’s Loan and Loan-to-deposit ratio

Jun-15

M-o-M

Y-o-Y

+0.4%

+5.3%

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Commercial banks take deposits and give out loans. Chart A shows the outstanding loan by commercial banks in Thailand. Chart B shows the commercial banks’ loan to deposit ratio, a liquidity indicators in the banking system.

Latest development

96.5%

Jun-15

97.1%

97.3%

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Bank’s loan increased only 0.4% in September 2015. Liquidity in the system improved slightly as the Loan-to-Deposit ratio decreased from 97.34 to 97.27%.

www.ChartingThailand.com

Gross NPL continued to rise in both absolute v percentage of total loan in the 3Q15

Chart 3.03a – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstandin Billion Baht

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

270

256

267

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

Chart 3.03b – Total Financial Institutions’ Gross NPLs Outstandin Percentage of Total Loans

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

07YE

08YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

09YE

10YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

2.16%

12YE

13YE

This section is sponsored by

value and

Non-performing loan 299

278

4YE

312

361

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3

Gross NPLs: the outstanding amount of loans classified as substandard, doubtful, doubtful of loss, and loss. The chart shows Gross Non-performing loan from all Financial Institutions in Thailand, both in the absolute and percentage of total terms.

Latest development Gross NPL continued to rise in 3Q15. The absolute value increased from THB 312 billion to THB 361 billion or 2.38% to 2.79% of the total loan.

16%

4YE

2.29%

2.38%

2.79%

2015/Q1 2015/Q2 2015/Q3 © ChartingTHAILAND™

www.ChartingThailand.com

Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capital ratio increased in September an

Chart 3.04 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capital ratio of all commercial banks* % of risk assets, at year end

16.8% 15.8%

16.2%

16.1%

14.9%

15.7%

14.8% 14.0%

13.9% 13.3%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Note: (*) All Commercial Banks registered in Thailand, excluding foreign branches

Source: Bank of Thailand

2014

This section is sponsored by

nd remained high

Month End 17.5%

Capital ratio of all commercial banks

2015 17.0%

2014 16.5%

16.0%

Capital funds of commercial banks mean stockholders’ equity. Risk assets mean summary of all risk-weighted assets including contingent liabilities converted into assets and weighted by risk ratio. The higher the ratio the safer and more stability in the banking system.

Latest development Banks’ capital ratio increased to 17.3% in September and still remained high.

15.5%

15.0%

14.5%

www.ChartingThailand.com

Thailand’s real interest rate is slightly positive Chart 3.05 – Real interest rates Percent, as of Nov 27th 2015

൞

3M riskͲfree interest rates Brazil

Expected 2015 inflat

14.3

Russia

8.9

12.6

Indonesia

8.7

India

6.4

7.1

Pakistan

5.0 3.9

6.5

Vietnam

2.5

4.7

Malaysia

3.7

2.5

China

3.1

1.6

Australia

2.7

1.7

Singapore

2.5

Philippines

2.2

0.2 2.4

South Korea

1.7

0.8

Thailand

1.4

0.8

Taiwan

0.9

0.1

0.4

0.3

Hong Kong

0.4

Japan

0.1

Euro Area

-0.1

Note: (*) Applying 10-year bond for Singapore due to lack of 3-month interest rate data

Source: The Economist

3.1 0.7 0.1

This section is sponsored by

tion*

Real interest rates 5.4

15.0

-2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.0 2.3 -0.2 0.9

Real interest rates in the world Chart shows one way to calculate real interest rates across different currencies and economies in the world. Today’s Real interest rates = Nominal interest rates (represented here by 3-month risk free interest rates) – expected inflation.

Latest development There are quite a few countries with negative real interest rates. Countries with negative real interest rates seems to have low nominal interest rates to begin with. Thailand’s real interest rate is around 0.6%.

www.ChartingThailand.com

SET index lost 2.5% in November amid anothe Chart 3.06a – Monthly performance of SET index

Chart 3.06c

Percent change from prior month, at month end

Percent, as of Nov

China (SSEB, $ terms)

3.4%

France (CAC 40) 0.6%

Germany (DAX) Japan (Nikkei 225) China (SSEA) -2.4%

Jun-15

-4.3%

-4.0%

Jul-15

Aug-15

-2.5%

Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) US (NAScomp)

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

S Korea (KOSPI) Pakistan (KSE)

Chart 3.06b – Cumulative net foreign fund flow SET & MAI, Billion Baht, Month end

US (S&P 500) US (DJIA) Australia (All Ord.)

0.0

UK (FTSE 100)

-20.0

Malaysia (KLSE)

-40.0

HK (Hang Seng)

-60.0

India (BSE)

-80.0

Thailand (SET)

-100.0

Taiwan (TWI)

-120.0

Indonesia (JSX)-

-140.0 J-15 F-15 M-15 A-15 M-15 J-15

J-15 A-15 S-15 O-15 N-15 D-15

Source: SET, The Economist; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

Singapore (STI) -

This section is sponsored by

er foreign sell off – Change since Dec 31st 2014

v 25th 2015

36.3% 14.5% 13.9% 13.7% 12.7% 11.2% 8.0% 4.9% 3.3% 1.5% -0.1% -2.7% -3.5%

Stock market performance Chart A shows the monthly performance of the SET index. Chart B shows the performance, change in the index level, of key stock markets in the world, since the end of last year.

Latest development SET index lost 2.5% in November amid another foreign sell off. Along with other emerging markets, SET has declined yearto-date.

-4.4% -4.7% -6.3% -7.8% -9.9%

12.3%

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CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

www.ChartingThailand.com

Higher government deficit as percentage of G

Chart 4.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget and cash balance as percentage Percent Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus)

1.3%

1.0%

-0.2%

-0.5%-0.6%

-0.7% -1.0%-1.0%

-0.8%

-1.6% -1.9% -2.5%

-3.8% -4.2%

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

GDP in 2014

of nominal GDP Budget balance vs GDP Overall Cash balances are the sum of budget and non budget cash balances. Budget cash balances are the government revenues net of the government expenditures. Non budget cash balances include changes in governmental agencies’ deposit accounts and net positions of government’s revolving funds. The chart shows both Overall Cash balances and Budget cash balances as percentage of nominal GDP.

Latest development

-1.9% -2.1%

-2.2%-2.3%

-3.4% -3.8%

12FY

13FY

Government budget and cash balances have been in deficit in 7 of the last 10 years. The magnitude of the deficits in the past 5 years have been huge. The worst deficits in relative to GDP were in 2009 (calendar year), with budget deficit of 4%. Huge government budget deficit in 2012, only slightly better than in 2009. Higher budget and cash deficit as percentage of GDP in 2014.

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Budget deficit in the first 10 months of 2015 i billion worse off than the same period last ye Chart 4.2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government budget balance Billion Baht

2,075

Revenue 1,241

Budget balance

-36

1,751 1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-267

-295

-2,424

-2,371

1,484

110 -75

-27 -414

-1,280 -1,629

Expenditure

2,076

1,902

-364

-1,277

2,158

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-1,930 -2,489

05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

s more than THB 60 ear

Monthly cumulative Budget balance Billion Baht

Budget balance

Budget balances are the government revenues net of the government expenditures. The left chart shows government revenue, government expenditure and budget balance (line). The right chart shows monthly cumulative of budget balance of the last two years.

2014 -50

Latest development

-100

-150

-200

2015 -250

Government budget balances have been in deficit in 9 of the last 10 years. The magnitude of the deficits in the past 5 years have been huge. The worst deficits in absolute term were in 2012 (calendar year), with budget deficit of 414 Billion Baht. In 2014, Budget deficit increased from 2013. Budget deficit in the first 10 months of 2015 is more than THB 60 billion worse off than the same period last year.

-300

-350 J

F M A M J

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Cash deficit was higher than budget deficit in

Chart 4.3 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government cash balance Billion Baht

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surplus) 110 88

-27

-36 -45 -75

-95

-100 -96 -144 -174

-266

-364 -401

-414

-4

05FY

06FY

07FY

08FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

the first 10 months

Budget and Cash balance Overall Cash balances are the sum of budget and non budget cash balances. Budget cash balances are the government revenues net of the government expenditures. Non budget cash balances include changes in governmental agencies’ deposit accounts and net positions of government’s revolving funds. The chart shows both Overall Cash balances and Budget cash balances in absolute term.

Latest development -223

-242

-264

-267 -295 -305

2012 saw the biggest budget and cash deficit in THB term. Apart from 2010, Budget cash balance and Overall cash balance are typically in line with each other. Cash deficit was higher than budget deficit in the first 10 months of 2015, implying negative nonbudget balance.

466

13FY

14FY

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Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s budget deficit is expected to be aro

Chart 4.4 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Government Budget balance as percentage of GDP 2015*, percent

-0.7 -1.0 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.8 -4.0 -4.2 -5.1 -6.0 -6.8

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

ound 2% of GDP

0.3 0.0

South Korea Hong Kong Singapore Taiwan Philippines Indonesia Thailand Euro Area Australia US China Russia India Malaysia

Budget balance in the world Consensus projection of Government budget balance as percentage of GDP across major countries in the world for the current year. The data is compiled by the Economist poll.

Latest development Most governments in the world are expected to have budget deficits in 2013, except South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Russia. The magnitude of the expected budget deficits are greatest in US and Japan, the leading economies in the world. Thailand budget deficit is expected to be around 2% of GDP.

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A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2015

Chart 4.5a – Composition of Public debt

Chart 4.5b –

THB Trillion

As percentage of

6.0

5.0

Public debt from State Enterprises

4.0

3.0

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

2.0

Direct Government debt

1.0

0.0

2011 8%

2012 8%

2013 7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

2014 7%

Sep-15 6%

2011

External debt as percent of total

2012

– Composition of Public debt

nominal GDP

50% 45% 40%

Public debt from State Enterprises

Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss & Prefunding debt

35% 30% 25% 20% 15%

Direct Government debt

10% 5%

Composition of Public debt Public debt includes direct government debt, Bond to Compensate FIDF's Loss, Debt Prefunding, Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt, Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt, and others. Chart A shows the level of debt in THB. Chart B shows the level as percentage of nominal GDP.

Latest development Public debt as percentage of GDP increased significantly since 2009 then dropped slightly in 2011 before increasing again. Public debt increased in absolute term and relative to GDP in 2012 and 2013, due largely to direct government debt. A slight increase in Public debt so far in 2015, at THB 5.8 trillion, or 43% of GDP. Majority of the public debt is domestic based.

2013

2014

Sep-15

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Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s public debt is not high compared to standard Chart 4.6 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Public debt in the world Percentage of GDP, 2014 est. 1 Japan 2 Zimbabwe 3 Greece 4 Lebanon 5 Italy 6 Jamaica 7 Portugal 8 Cyprus 9 Ireland 10 Grenada 11 Singapore 12 Belgium 13 Eritrea 14 Barbados 15 Spain 16 France 17 Iceland 18 Egypt 19 Puerto rico 20 Canada 21 Bhutan 22 Jordan 23 Antigua and barbuda 24 UK 25 Cabo verde Source: CIA fact book

228 181 175 142 134 132 131 119 119 110 107 102 101 101 98 96 94 94 94 93 92 90 89 87 86

39 United 40 C 43 48 Ur 50 Pa 56 63 Ma 67 71 Th 72 Philip 7 80 Vie 93 M 96 Sw 101 Arg 103 South 105 Hong 108 T 126 129 N 133 Indo 137 147 149 N 164 Saudi

o international

states Croatia 3 Israel ruguay akistan 6 Brazil alaysia 7 India hailand ppines 8 Laos etnam Mexico weden entina Korea g kong Turkey Nepal orway onesia 7 China Russia Nigeria arabia

71 70 67 65 64 59 54 51 49 48 46 46 41 40 38 37 37 37 30 30 24 22 13 12 2

Int’l rule of thumb <60% of GDP

Public debt in the world Public debt as percentage of nominal GDP, data is compiled by CIA.

Latest development High public debt ratio in most developed countries. Thailand’s public debt ratio, at 49% of GDP in 2014, is below international rule of thumb of 60%. Japan has the highest public debt level compared to GDP, at 228%. Majority of countries with high public debt level comes from Europe, leading by Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland.

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CONTENT SUMMARY

Growth

Stability

normal’ growth level expenditure side e main drag s level

cted by the Bangkok bomb. in October t growth rs less pessimistic 5Ͳ4.0% for 2016

y energy price. CPI for most lightly improved. Bank’s

also increased but not too

surplus. External debt has

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Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015, th surplus Trade Bala 29.8

Chart 5.01 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Balance of Payment decomposition Billion USD

10FY

31.3

Net service

7.4

5.3

-19.7

1.2 10FY

-1.2

Net Capita

-5.0 10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/10mo

21.3

10FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

hanks to trade

nce (F.O.B) 29.2 24.6

17.0 6.7

11FY

12FY

6.7

13FY

14FY

15/10mo

e income & transfer -3.1 -8.1

-8.2

-11.8

-9.2

Balance of payment decomposition Balance of Payments is a summary of economic transactions between residents and nonresidents that takes place during a specific time period. Balance of Payments include Trade balance, Net services income & transfers, Capital and financial account and Net errors & omissions.

Latest development

11FY

12FY

13FY

14FY

15/10mo

Positive Balance of Payment so far in 2015 of USD 7.4 billion, thanks to trade surplus.

l Movement + errors and omissions

6.8

0.1

-7.7

11FY

12FY

13FY

-16.6

-18.7

14FY

15/10mo

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Strong Asian export engines reflecting in huge surplus Chart 5.02 – Current Account balance As % of 2015 GDP* Singapore Ͳ Q3

21.2%

Taiwan Ͳ Q3

12.8%

South Korea Ͳ Sep

8.0%

Russia Ͳ Q3

5.5%

Philippines Ͳ Jun

4.1%

China Ͳ Q3

3.1%

Hong Kong Ͳ Q2

2.8%

Euro Area Ͳ Sep

2.8%

Japan Ͳ Sep

2.7%

Vietnam Ͳ 2014

2.7%

Malaysia Ͳ Q3

2.5%

Thailand Ͳ Q2

2.4%

Pakistan Ͳ Q3

-0.7%

India Ͳ Q2

-1.1%

Indonesia Ͳ Q3

-2.5%

US Ͳ Q2

-2.5%

Australia Ͳ Q2

-3.8%

Brazil Ͳ Oct

-3.8%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-429.0

e current account

Last 12 months, USD Billion 68.6

Current Account Balance

77.2 107.9 64.3 11.7 279.0 7.4

Current Account represents the net sum of trade in goods and services, primary income and secondary income. The left chart shows the consensus projection of 2012 Current Account Balance as percentage of GDP by the Economist poll. The right chart shows last 12-month Current Account Balance of major economies in the world, in absolute dollar term

348.8 121.9 9.1 7.8 24.4 -1.1

Latest development Countries that are expected to have huge Current Account surplus are mostly from Emerging Asian economies. US is still expected to be net spenders. Thailand’s Current Account balance in 2015 is expected to be 2.4% of GDP.

-25.9 -18.4

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External debt decreased slightly so far in 2015

Chart 5.10a – External Debt Level Billion USD

69.0

74.4

76.1

75.3

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

100.6

104.3

10YE

11YE

130.

12YE

Chart 5.10b – External Debt as % of GDP

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

38.0%

12YE

External Debt

139.9

140.7

136.6

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

External debt refers to the remaining outstanding portion of liabilities (excluding equity) which residents have over nonresidents of an economy. Prepared by the Bank of Thailand and released quarterly. Chart A shows external debt level in USD term. Chart B shows external debt level as percentage of GDP.

Latest development External debt level decreased slightly to USD 136.6 Billion at the end of 2Q15. External debt as percentage of GDP decreased slightly to 33.2%.

38.2%

13YE

34.5%

33.2%

14YE

15/2Q

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External debt structure has continued to shift term debt Chart 5.11a – External debt breakdown

Chart 5.11b – E

Private vs Public

LongͲTerm vs Sho

Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

16%

84%

11YE

20%

80%

12YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

18%

82%

13YE

18%

82%

14YE

Long term Short term

17% 45%

44%

55%

56%

11YE

12Y

83%

15/2Q

t toward more longͲ

External debt breakdown

ortͲTerm

External debt composition

43%

40%

Breakdown of external debt. Chart A shows the external debt breakdown by borrowers. Chart B shows the external debt breakdown by maturity.

Latest development External debt structure has continued to shift toward more long-term debt, which lowers the risk of not having enough foreign exchange to service external debt.

57%

60%

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

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Big surge in external debt payment in 2Q15

Chart 5.12a – International reserves

Chart 5.12b – D

As % of ST external debt

Percent

370% 340% 312% 279%

277%

293%

4.7% 3.4%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13YE

14YE

15/2Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

10FY

11FY

Debt service ratio* External Debt repayment capability 8.1%

Latest development

4.7% 4.2%

12FY

Debt service ratio increased sharply to 8.1% in 2Q15. However, International reserves (as % of ST external debt) is still at healthy level (293%). Capability to repay external debt is not yet a concern at the moment.

4.0%

13FY

A look at the country’s capabilities of servicing the external debt. Chart A shows the country’s international reserves as percentage of short-term external debt. Chart B shows the external debt service ratio (Debt service payment / Export of goods and services).

14FY

15/2Q

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Net International reserves decreased slightly considered excessive Chart 5.13a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves level* At the end of period, Billion USD

73.9

2006

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

154.1

2009

191.7

206.4

205.8

2010

2011

2012

Chart 5.13b â&#x20AC;&#x201C; International reserves as number of months of im 13.8

12.6 10.8

9.1 6.9

2006

2007

9.9

7.9

2008

2009

2010

2011

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during the last 12 months

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

2012

in 2015 but still

International reserves

190.2

180.2

170.3

2013

2014

Oct-15

port**

International reserve assets refer to external assets that are held or controlled by central bank and are readily available for immediate uses, for instance, in financing payment imbalances or in implementing exchange rate policy. The figures also include the net forward position (future assets/liabilities arising from currency forward contracts between BOT and the market). Chart A shows international reserves level in US$ term. Chart B shows as number of months that it can finance import.

Latest development

9.1

9.5

9.9

2013

2014

Oct-15

International reserves in US$ term have been decreasing since its peak in 2011. So far in 2015, the reserves decreased slightly but the number of months that it can finance import increased to 9.9 months, which is considered excessive.

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THB appreciated 1% in November

Chart 5.17a – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate

Chart 5.17b –

2007=100

Percentage change i

MYR Ͳ 8.5524 114.0

Baht appreciates

112.0

AUD Ͳ 26.1664

110.0

EUR Ͳ 38.3219

108.0

IDR Ͳ 2.7517

MͲoͲM

1.0%

106.0

Ͳ0.5%

Baht depreciates Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

TWD Ͳ 1.1023

102.0

PHP Ͳ 0.775

100.0 Nov-15

KRW Ͳ 0.0312

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; ChartingTHAILAND analysis

INR Ͳ 0.5703 SGD Ͳ 25.6424

104.0

YͲoͲY

MXN Ͳ 2.1688

GBP Ͳ 54.3712 CNY Ͳ 5.6798 JPY Ͳ 29.5486 VND Ͳ 0.0016

USD Ͳ 36.0549 -8

Baht

YͲoͲY change in FX rate*

n avg. selling rate as of Nov 30th 2015

15.7 10.4 7.8 7.4 4.3 -0.6 -0.8 -3.2

Exchange rates Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) has been constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht vis-à-vis Thailand’s 23 major trading partners and trade competitors. The weight of each currency varies according to how important the country is as a trading partner and trade competitor. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation. Chart B shows the year-on-year change of average selling rates of selected currencies.

Latest development

-3.9

Nominal Effective Exchange Rate increased 1% in November. Over the last 12 months THB depreciated 0.5% against key currencies. USD has appreciated the most against THB during the period.

-4.2 -4.5 -5.0 -5.1 -6.3

8.6

t depreciates

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