Team Chaitanya Ahuja India MFA Design Management
Alan Liu Taiwan MFA Design Management
“There is nothing certain, but the uncertain.� 2
Table of Contents 1. What is scenario planning? 2. Brand description 3. Brand myth 4. Brand attributes 5. Brand challenge question 6. Scenario - 5 year Driving forces (STEEP) Driving forces matrix (2x2) Driving forces cause & effect Plot diagram Scenario: Story narrative Implications for brand + responses Black Swan event 7. Scenario - 10 year Driving forces (STEEP) Driving forces matrix (2x2) Driving forces cause & effect Plot diagram Scenario: Story narrative Implications for brand + responses Black Swan event
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 23 29 35 36 46 47 48 49 57 63 69 70
8. Scenario - 15 year Driving forces (STEEP) Expanding Imagination Driving forces matrix (2x2) Driving forces cause & effect Plot diagram Scenario: Story narrative Implications for brand + responses Black Swan event 9. Summary 10. Bibliography
80 81 82 86 87 93 99 105 106 116 119
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What is scenario planning? Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that can assist our foresight and intuition in preparing for the future. Scenario planning can be used as a useful strategic tool to prepare a company for unforeseen circumstances. Through a series of projects and studies, we have developed skills in identifying and framing trends in the context of a design enterprise. These skills included analyzing driving forces that affects the system that contains that enterprise, joining the dots between these forces to build plot points and using intuition and imagination to build scenarios. These scenarios can then serve as a guide for an uncertain event in the future. This helps us, as designers, to then build strategies for this enterprise in that future event and still adhere to its core values, beliefs and mission.
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Facebook Founded in 2004, Facebook’s mission is to give people the power to build community and bring the world closer together. People use Facebook to stay connected with friends and family, to discover what’s going on in the world, and to share and express what matters to them.
Statistics 1.52 billion daily active users on Facebook on average for December 2018 2.32 billion monthly active users on Facebook as of December 31, 2018 Employees 35,587 employees as of December 31, 2018 5
Brand Myth Bring people closer together.
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Attributes Rational
Emotional
Convenient
Powerful
A brand that lets people contact each other easily anywhere, anytime.
A brand that offers services that have affected both society and commerce.
Personalized
Effortless
A brand that allows people control and change by their preferences.
A brand that helps make finding and communicating with people seamless.
Progressive
Meaningful
A brand that stays updated with time, technology and trends.
A brand that is relatable to everyone and has become necessary in everyone’s life. 7
Challenge Question How might Facebook optimize its current business model in order to build trust and bring people closer together?
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Scenario - 5 Year
9
Scenario - 5 Year
Driving Forces Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
Fake accounts, pages, news and groups
Wearable device
Economic war
Climate change
Laws for social media
Potential impact of developing countries
Spreading internet
Political campaigns
Renewable energy
Terrorism
Driverless transport
Social media taking over traditional media
VR technology
Increasing number of older generation users
Blockchain
Increasing number of influencers
Gaming
Digital wallet
Operational cost as the increasing problems
Internet of things
Artificial intelligence Drone technology Third party communications 10
Scenario - 5 Year
Mapping Driving Forces
More Significant Artificial intelligence Laws for social media Fake accounts, news Blockchain Climate change and pages Increasing operational Internet of things Increasing number of costs with increasing problems influencers Digital wallet Social Media taking over traditional media
Increasing number of older generation users
Political campaigns
Economic War Terrorism
Spreading internet Potential impact of developing countries
Driverless transport
VR/AR technology
Wearable devices Gaming
Drone technology
Uncertain
Certain
Third party communications
Renewable energy
Social Technological Economic Environment Political Less Significant
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Scenario - 5 Year
Cause-Effect of Driving Forces
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Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War Cause
Effect
Economic
Economic, Political, Technological
The ongoing trade war with China is going to hamper US stock market and keep hurting global economic growth. Most importantly, it will increase tariffs on networking equipment from China.
It could spell trouble for companies that buy Chinese components for their global cloud computing operations, such as Facebook, Google, and Amazon. It will indirectly impact people’s lives, and the damage from more than a year of punitive tariffs may be difficult to repair. New foreign trade policies to control the impact of this war may be created by governments.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Potential Impact of Developing Countries Cause
Effect
Economic
Social, Economic, Political
Developing economies like BRICS are the main drivers of growth for world economy and huge markets for investors. These countries also have a great potential for growth because of huge skilled and unskilled labor populations. At the same time, these populations are also vast prospective customers for other economies.
As developing markets continue to boom, they will impact society and economy. Increased standard of living, changes in migration patterns, development of infrastructure, foreign trade policies, investments and world politics can be directly affected by this driving force.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Political Campaigns Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Political, Economic
Social media platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter act as catalysts for various political campaigns and marketing to manipulate and influence people.
People are easily influenced by politicians’ speech on social media. A lot of fake accounts, pages and groups related to political parties are trying to mislead and incite the crowd adversely affecting behavior, society and economy. This may lead to an intervention of governments to develop regulations, policies and laws or even take control of these platforms.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Terrorism Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Politics
Social media platforms are going to be increasingly used by terrorists to further their goals. Viral videos, live broadcasts, global reach and anonymity make social media a perfect tool for terrorists.
Fear and distress is an immediate impact of terrorism through social media. But as it becomes more common and reaches a global audience, it may lead to behavioral changes in populations such as lack of trust and hostility. It will also drive politics and laws as control mechanisms.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Spreading Internet Cause
Effect
Environmental
Technological, Social, Economic
Contrary to developed countries, developing countries have limited or no access to internet which creates a drastically different environment for these populations.
By leveraging technologies like drones and advanced wireless communication systems, a new technological infrastructure can be created in zero-internet zones that will help bridge the socio-economic gap between developing and developed countries.
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Scenario - 5 Year
VR/AR Technology Cause
Effect
Technological
Social, Economic, Environmental
As the technology develops, anything we can do in real life will be replicable in VR/AR. The industry is still forming but it will literally change the way that we interact with technology in every way.
VR/AR will give markets a brand-new tool to utilize in their marketing stack. VR/AR allows marketers to demonstrate product attributes and features, help consumers make more informed decisions, and add a new, more immersive and exhilarating dimension to traditional print and video storytelling. It will also create new environments to interact and communicate which may create new social trends and behaviors. 18
Scenario - 5 Year
Driverless Transportation Cause
Effect
Technological
Social, Economic
As the technology develops, driverless transportation will help us reduce commute times and traffic accidents.
Transportation in our society is going to be extremely efficient and safe. However, with this comes the downside that many transport-related jobs could potentially be lost forever. There are also concerns that IoT connected transport systems could be vulnerable to hackers.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Wearable Devices Cause
Effect
Technological
Social
As the technology develops, wearable technology is revolutionizing healthcare, personal well-being, and workplace productivity.
As adoption grows, wearable devices companies will have access to more useful data to improve personalization and upgrade people’s live. However, it also has risks to be hacked for personalized data.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Gaming Cause
Effect
Technological
Social, Economic, Technological
In recent years, gaming has evolved from being an entertainment into a sport. eSports have an audience of 400M and revenues of $1.58B. With the new generations (Millenials + Gen Z) investing more time and money into gaming, this force is expected to blow up. Major tech companies like Apple, Google and Amazon are launching gaming services for their customers.
As gaming and eSports advance, it will have a huge impact on society and economy. Ads, services, broadcasting will all be greatly affected as the trend grows. It is also expected to create new societal impacts as it inspires future careers including history, art and science.
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Unstable
Scenario Logic Matrix
Economic
Scenario - 5 Year
Harmonious
Chaotic
Political
Social Technological Economic Environment Political
Stable
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Scenario - 5 Year
Plot Diagram
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TURNING POINT
RESOLUTION 23
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War
The ongoing trade war with China is going to hamper US stock market and keep hurting global economic growth because of high tariffs on imported goods from China.
Setup
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Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War
Everyone in US, as well as most companies in China, are impacted. Global economy is taking a hit leading to conservative and shrinking investments. People start losing jobs and dollar loses its value.
People let out their frustration and anger on Facebook. Stories and posts about the impact of trade war can be seen all over Facebook by people across the globe.
Rising Action 25
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War
China looks at this as an opportunity to spread fake news through fake accounts to create pressure on the US government to relax Foreign Trade policies. Other affected countries start siding with either China or US which creates a political scenario for a global economic war.
Turning Point
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Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War There is a growing concern over internet democracy that has led to the current scenario. Governments are scrutinizing Facebook for it. Discussions are being held to develop policies and laws to control free expression on the internet.
Falling Action 27
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War
Facebook steps up to crowdsource fact-checking along with increasing its partners (journalists & experts). It also makes efforts to develop an AI-based algorithm to evolve its current fact-checking process. This new algorithm is open sourced so that it can be used by other social media platforms. All of these efforts are made to ensure that the internet remains a place for free expression.
Resolution
28
Scenario - 5 Year
Story Narrative
29
Scenario - 5 Year
The Card Tower The ongoing trade war with China is going to hamper US stock market and keep hurting global economic growth because of high tariffs on imported goods from China. The United States has also faced a serious trade deficit problem. The biggest trade deficit is with China. In 2017, the U.S. government’s trade deficit with foreign goods reached US$810 billion. The largest source of trade deficit for the United States was China, accounting for 46% of the total, amounting to US$375.2 billion. China has always been the United States' largest trading partner, with a two-way investment stock of more than $1.4 trillion. In other words, the friendly relationship between China and the United States is largely based on economic cooperation and interdependence. Now that the trade war has started, the main bridge to maintain the relationship between the two sides has been interrupted. What is even worse is that the two countries have taken the upper hand in the trade war and exerted pressure on the other side through sanctions and diplomatic means to further break the relationship between the two sides. 30
Scenario - 5 Year
The Lost Everyone in US, as well as most companies in China, are impacted. Global economy is taking a hit leading to conservative and shrinking investments. People start losing jobs and dollar loses its value. People let out their frustration and anger on Facebook. Stories and posts about the impact of trade war can be seen all over Facebook by people across the globe. The Sino-US trade war is undoubtedly unfavorable to the economic cooperation between the two countries. More economists worry that the trade war will reduce the GDP of the two countries by about one percentage point. Under economic globalization, the economic conditions of each country affect each other. As the countries are the two largest economies, it is also inextricably linked to the economies of countries around the world. The economic problems of China and the United States will drag down the development of the global economic market. The main means of Sino-US trade wars is to exert pressure on the other party through the tariffs on imported goods. When tariffs increase, importers will naturally increase their price of goods in order to maximize their own interests. At the end of the cycle, prices will rise and the inflation of the two countries will increase. At the same time, as importers are excluded from the door by additional tariffs, local merchants may also raise the price of goods in the event of losing 31 market competitors.
Scenario - 5 Year
Spreading Fakes China looks at this as an opportunity to spread fake news through fake accounts to create pressure on the US government to relax Foreign Trade policies. Other affected countries start siding with either China or US which creates a political scenario for a global economic war. Internet information is massive. Although we have the ability to actively search for information, we are often used to accepting the feed of popular online messages, such as popular search keywords, viral videos on Youtube, Facebook post sharing, etc. Whether the information is popular or not has nothing to do with the value of the content or the truth. In fact, the more popular a post is on the internet, the more likely it is to be fake. China uses a large number of network forces to speculate on specific issues or candidates on various social networking sites, and invisibly encroach on the time and space of our rational thinking.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Powerful Signs
There is a growing concern over internet democracy that has led to the current scenario. Governments are scrutinizing Facebook for it. Discussions are being held to develop policies and laws to control free expression on the internet. Facebook users publish millions of videos, images, and live sexual abuse, sexual assault, torture, inhuman videos showing violence, suicide, and murder everyday. In addition, the internet giant has became an accomplice to fake news and began is heavily criticized since 2016, that was when Russia was suspected of influencing the US presidential election through social media. The criticized Internet companies, Facebook, Twitter, and Google are all spared. Therefore, government is trying to make regulations or laws to control the free expression on the internet.
33
Scenario - 5 Year
Grammarly Facebook steps up to crowdsource fact-checking along with increasing its partners (journalists & experts). It also makes efforts to develop an AI-based algorithm to evolve its current fact-checking process. This new algorithm is open sourced so that it can be used by other social media platforms. All of these efforts are made to ensure that the internet remains a place for free expression. Overall, as social media spreads, fake news is more harmful to society than before, and social media leader Facebook is the biggest driver amongst them. It is heavily attacked, but it is also committed to crack down on fake news. Facebook said that the fake news inspection project, which began in early 2018, has been launched in more than 14 countries and introduced machine learning technology to automatically eliminate fake news and work for the future election.
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Scenario - 5 Year
Implications & Responses
Augmented dynamic environments Response: Propagating virtual/augmented platforms for businesses to transform real environments of interaction. More conflicts Response: Partner with the UN and other international organizations to present public opinions in case of conflicts. Lack of trust Response: Increase partnerships with various nonprofit organizations in different fields to rebuild relationships and trust. This is done by initiating interactive activities or events in the communities. Lack of transparency Response: Invest in the development of better algorithms to evolve its current fact-checking process to prevent the spread of misinformative news. Negative expression Response: Tackle negative thoughts with the help of influencers to cultivate a positive, constructive environment on social media. 35
Scenario - 5 Year
Black Swan Events 36
Scenario - 5 Year
Black Swan Plot Diagram
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RESOLUTION 37
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War
The ongoing trade war with China is going to hamper US stock market and keep hurting global economic growth because of high tariffs on imported goods from China.
Setup
38
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War
Everyone in the US, as well as most companies in China, are impacted. Global economy is taking a hit leading to conservative and shrinking investments. People start losing jobs and dollar loses its value.
People let out their frustration and anger on Facebook. Stories and posts about the impact of trade war can be seen are proliferating on the platform by people across the globe.
Rising Action 39
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War
China looks at this as an opportunity to spread fake news through fake accounts to create pressure on the US government to relax Foreign Trade policies. Other affected countries start siding with either China or US which creates a political scenario for a global economic war.
Turning Point
40
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War As lots of fake news on social media are trying to mislead people, they fall prey to them and start supporting the economic war. The Economic war dramatically intensifies globally. Tariffs are skyrocketing and companies keep delaying investment plans & postponing their decisions.
Falling Action 41
Scenario - 5 Year
Economic War Facebook creates a prediction AI system to predicts the true intentions of companies during the long term economic war by combining AI, big data and blockchain technology. The data is analyzed by users’ behaviors & experience, historical financial policy, and exchange rates.
Resolution
42
Scenario - 5 Year
Empty Piggies
As lots of fake news on social media are trying to mislead people, they fall prey to them and start supporting the economic war.The Economic war dramatically intensifies globally. Tariffs are skyrocketing and companies keep delaying investment plans & postponing their decisions. Even though Facebook has made efforts to hinder the proliferation of misleading information, a democratized system like social media platforms can never be devoid of loopholes and these efforts always seem to go in vain. This has resulted in increased polarity amongst the general population. Economists have predicted an economic doomsday in the near future. Investors and analysts are unable to assess the situation.
Falling Action
43
Scenario - 5 Year
‘Fortune’ Teller
Facebook creates a prediction AI system to predict the true intentions of companies during the long term economic war by combining AI, big data and blockchain technology.The data is analyzed by users’ behaviors & experience, historical financial policy and exchange rates.
This prediction algorithm was originally developed for businesses to market their products. But the current circumstances have led Facebook to use it for businesses to find the right partners in their value chain, thereby changing their own business model to help people reliably run their businesses. It is also helping investors and analysts make the right investments.
Resolution
44
Scenario - 5 Year
Implications & Responses
Greatest depression Response: Create a prediction AI system to predict the true intentions of companies during the long term economic war by combining AI, big data and blockchain technology. More conflicts Response: Partner with the UN and other international organizations to present public opinions in case of conflicts. Lack of trust Response: Increase partnerships with various nonprofit organizations in different fields to rebuild relationships and trust. This is done by initiating interactive activities or events in the communities. Lack of transparency Response: Invest in the development of better algorithms to evolve its current fact-checking process to prevent the spread of misinformative news. Negative expression Response: Tackle negative thoughts with the help of influencers to cultivate a positive, constructive environment on social media.
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Scenario - 10 Year
46
Scenario - 10 Year
Driving Forces Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
Fake accounts, pages, news and groups
Wearable device
China and India dominate the global economy
Dramatic climate change
Increasing conflicts between big countries
Renewable energy
Laws for social media, privacy and security
Increasing number of older generation users User privacy
Faster communications Faster/ Driverless transport VR technology Gaming
Personal verification Online shopping Increasing number of influencers
Blockchain Digital wallet
Service-based economy Operational cost as the increasing problems
Personalized virtual interactions within environments
Political campaigns Online voting Terrorism
Artificial intelligence Drone technology
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Scenario - 10 Year
Mapping Driving Forces
Personalized virtual More Significant Laws for social media, interactions within privacy and security environments Faster Increasing conflicts Blockchain Faster/ Driverless communications between big countries Digital wallet User privacy transport Political campaigns Artificial intelligence Personal verification China and India Gaming Service-based Renewable Online voting dominate the global economy energy economy Increasing number of Tech-implants Fake accounts, pages, older generation users news and groups Drone technology Online shopping
Certain
Operational cost as the increasing problems
Dramatic change in climate Terrorism
Uncertain
Increasing number of influencers VR technology
Social Technological Economic Environment Political Less Significant
48
Scenario - 10 Year
Cause-Effect of Driving Forces
49
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Change in Climate Cause
Effect
Environmental
Social, Technological, Economic, Political
Human activity has been the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th Century. The dramatic weather are increasing every year. It will only worsen in the near future with greater occurrences of natural disasters.
People will have to adapt to this dramatic weather. A lot of new policies and technologies will come up to regulate and try to predict those dramatic changes. The unpredictable weather will be a potential threat to various businesses, directly and indirectly. People will need to make a collective immediate effort for survival.
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Scenario - 10 Year
Terrorism Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Politics
Social media platforms are going to be increasingly used by terrorists to further their goals. Viral videos, live broadcasts, global reach and anonymity make social media a perfect tool for terrorists.
Fear and distress is an immediate impact of terrorism through social media. But as it becomes more common and reaches a global audience, it may lead to behavioral changes in populations such as lack of trust and hostility. It will also drive control mechanisms such as politics and laws.
51
Scenario - 10 Year
Increasing Conflict Between Big Countries Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental
As the global economy changes, the power to dominate the world is going to be held by a few big countries. Those big countries are going to compete with each other with support from smaller countries.
The global issues are all dependant on those the superpowers. Smaller countries don’t have much of a choice. Global market is completely linked to the greater economies. In order to face those conflicts, big countries are trying to upgrade their weaponry and intensify the environment.
52
Scenario - 10 Year
Online Voting Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Political, Economic
As the world gets more connected, online voting will significantly reduce the costs of conducting elections and will aid access to a wider audience.
Election frauds, security breaches and privacy concerns are major threats which will impact world politics, society and economies. Fake profiles, cyber crimes and targeted manipulation of audience will highly impact the legitimacy of elections.
53
Scenario - 10 Year
Personal Verification / Authorized Profiles Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Political, Economic, Environmental
Social media will be used for authorization of identity by linking government identifications.
It will create a legitimate digital society giving governments a power to take action on all sorts of cyber crimes. At the same time, it will also give governments access to sensitive, personal data which may bring changes in society, environments and behavior. It may also lead to social scoring, impacting businesses and economy.
54
Scenario - 10 Year
Wearable Devices/ Implants Cause
Effect
Technological
Social, Technological, Political
As the technology develops, high tech implants are going to replace wearable technology, thereby revolutionizing healthcare, personal well-being, and workplace productivity.
As adoption grows, companies will have access to more useful data to improve personalization and upgrade people’s lives. However, it will also add risks associated with data theft and privacy of users. As a result, new laws may be needed to protect identity and privacy as well as to promote transparent use of data.
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Unsustainable
Scenario Logic Matrix
Environmental
Scenario - 10 Year
Harmonious
Political
Chaotic
Social Technological Economic Environment Political
Sustainable
56
Scenario - 10 Year
Plot Diagram
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RESOLUTION 57
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
With the influence of human society's progress, weather changes are becoming more and more difficult to capture. Floods, droughts, wildfires, snowstorms and hurricanes are occurring more frequently than ever. These weather problems affect various human activities, industries and social developments, creating a need for us to adapt to these changes.
Setup
58
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change Seychelles, parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Philippines and other island nations are submerged under rising oceans. New trends and ‘challenges’ start popping up on platforms like Facebook to improve the deteriorating condition of earth at an individual level. Trends like ‘Plant 2 trees everyday for 500 days’ and ‘collect a bag of plastic waste for 365 days’ are becoming really popular.
Rising Action 59
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
New scientific developments have made it possible to create weaponry out of single-use plastic waste. Countries with a high amount of plastic waste are rising to power.
Turning Point
60
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
3D printing technology in combination with plastic weaponry has created a hostile social environment. This has compelled governments to take control over collected plastic waste.
Falling Action 61
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
Facebook has partnered with governments and public authorities to help people directly hand over plastic waste to government bodies through its marketplace. Facebook is also using computer vision and data analytics to monitor the collected waste.
Resolution
62
Scenario - 10 Year
Story Narrative
63
Scenario - 10 Year
Us Against ‘The World'
With the influence of human society's progress, weather changes are becoming more and more difficult to capture. Floods, droughts, wildfires, snowstorms and hurricanes are occurring more frequently than ever. These weather problems affect various human activities, industries and social developments, creating a need for us to adapt to these changes. The ‘Blue Marble’ is experiencing extreme climatic change. It’s snowing in the Sahara desert, California is facing a plethora of wildfires, and tornadoes have taken over most coastal regions all over the world. It seems like the planet’s immune system is at work, trying to cure itself from the cancer caused by over two centuries of human industrial activity. This has caused a huge disruption in the life and activity of not just humans but all living creatures. The immediate reaction is an urge to improve meteorological systems in order to better predict the dubious climatic conditions and to adapt to this havoc. 64
Scenario - 10 Year
Everything’s Not Lost
Seychelles, parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Philippines and other island nations are submerged under rising oceans. New trends and ‘challenges’ start popping up on platforms like Facebook to improve the deteriorating condition of earth at an individual level. Trends like ‘Plant 2 trees everyday for 500 days’ and ‘collect a bag of plastic waste for 365 days’ are becoming really popular. There is a concerning fear in everyone’s mindset that is driving them to take strict action for their survival. These trends on social media are acting as drivers of change. Facebook has even implemented notifications for participants of these challenges, nagging their conscience and reminding them every day to make a difference.
65
Scenario - 10 Year
Miracles New scientific developments have made it possible to create weaponry out of single-use plastic waste. Countries with a high amount of plastic waste are rising to power. Plastics are not just an environmental threat anymore, they are now potential tools of mass destruction and a threat to society and humanity. The use of plastics is being condemned and there is a public uproar against huge companies like Nestle and P&G. Movements and social media that were seen as efforts to save our planet are now a cause of concern for governments and international organizations.
66
Scenario - 10 Year
The Hardest Part 3D printing technology in combination with plastic weaponry has created a hostile social environment. This has compelled governments to take control over collected plastic waste. Over the last decade, 3D printing has become as popular as the the smartphone in the previous decade. This is a huge cause of concern for governments because these technologies have put weaponry and arms in everyone’s reach. Movements that started off as campaigns to protect environment have been taken over by cartels. Plastic has lost its status of being a ‘waste’ material and is being sold in black markets rather than being handed over to waste treatment facilities. This has created a need for governments all over the world to take control of waste collection.
67
Scenario - 10 Year
Don’t Panic
Facebook has partnered with governments and public authorities to help people directly hand over plastic waste to government bodies through its marketplace. Facebook is also using computer vision, drone technologies and data analytics to monitor collected waste. The social media platform is making efforts to help people save the planet by ensuring that necessary movements, the ones that require our immediate attention, are not curbed.
68
Scenario - 10 Year
Implications & Responses
Unpredictable weather Response: Invest in weather prediction systems with big data algorithms and disaster management measures: Drones to provide supplies and connectivity, and even use computer vision to carry out rescue operations. Uncontrollable pollution Response: Increase partnerships with education institutions and scientific labs to develop technologies to terraform uninhabitable places on the planet. Lack of resources Response: Invest in renewable energy and resource management with big data algorithms to maintain limited energy and distribute resources equally. More conflicts Response: Partner with the UN and other international organizations to represent public opinion in case of conflicts. Waste treatment Response: Partner with governments and public authorities to help people directly hand over plastic waste to government bodies through its marketplace by using computer vision and data analytics by monitoring collected waste. 69
Scenario - 10 Year
Black Swan Events 70
Scenario - 10 Year
Black Swan Plot Diagram
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RESOLUTION 71
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
With the influence of human society's progress, weather changes are becoming more and more difficult to capture. Floods, droughts, wildfires, snowstorms and hurricanes are occurring more frequently than ever. These weather problems affect various human activities, industries and social developments, creating a need for us to adapt to these changes.
Setup
72
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change Seychelles, parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Philippines and other island nations are submerged under rising oceans. New trends and ‘challenges’ start popping up on platforms like Facebook to improve the deteriorating condition of earth at an individual level. Trends like ‘Plant 2 trees everyday for 500 days’ and ‘collect a bag of plastic waste for 365 days’ are becoming really popular.
Rising Action 73
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
The situation has led to a lot of refugees who managed to escape their motherland before it drowned. These refugees are fleeing to mainland countries in an effort to find livelihood.
Turning Point
74
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
Falling Action
The situation has led to a lot of refugees who managed to escape their motherland before it drowned. While some governments are supporting these refugees, many governments have a hostile attitude towards these people. They believe that their countries are being ‘swamped’ by these people and that it’s a threat to their own citizens. These threats include terror, health risks, and depletion of natural and economic resources. People are expressing rage over social media about the decisions of these hostile nations. 75
Scenario - 10 Year
Dramatic Climate Change
In an effort to ease their migration, Facebook launches identity verification in support with a few governments. Facebook has also launched maps which tracks the migration of these refugees to trace the authenticity of their miseries. The aim of these features is to create a more harmonious society where people support each other in disastrous times and situations.
Resolution
76
Scenario - 10 Year
The Hardest Part While some governments are supporting these refugees, many governments have a hostile attitude towards these people. They believe that their countries are being ‘swamped’ by these people and that it’s a threat to their own citizens. These threats include terror, health risks, and depletion of natural and economic resources. People are expressing rage over social media about the decisions of these hostile nations. Although there is hostility in the political world, the world of social media is showing a lot of support for migrants, as a result of which many NPOs have started building camps and asylums to provide basic amenities to the needy, these include: Health checks, identity verification, food, water and shelter. However, the scale of this disaster is such that these NPOs wouldn’t be able to support refugees for very long. Support is needed by the governments all over the world to provide more rehabilitation facilities.
Falling Action 77
Scenario - 10 Year
Don’t Panic In an effort to ease their migration, Facebook launches identity verification in support with a few governments. Facebook has also launched maps which tracks the migration of these refugees to trace the authenticity of their miseries. The aim of these features is to create a more harmonious society where people support each other in disastrous times and situations.
A few ‘hostile’ nations like Great Britain have now converted to accommodate verified refugees.The same data that was being used for marketing and selective ad campaigns is now being used for job creation and employment. Efforts are being made to terraform uninhabitable places to create the needed infrastructure tin order to support migrants. Facebook is currently developing an AI-based geo-mapping application to assist its weather prediction algorithms. This will help organizations and governments determine the places that can handle terraforming.
Resolution
78
Scenario - 10 Year
Implications & Responses
Unpredictable weather Response: Invest in weather prediction systems with big data algorithms and disaster management measures: Drones to provide supplies and connectivity, and even use computer vision to carry out rescue operations. Uncontrollable pollution Response: Increase partnerships with educational institutions and scientific labs to develop technologies to terraform uninhabitable places on the planet. Lack of resources Response: Invest in renewable energy and resource management with big data algorithms to maintain limited energy and distribute resources equally. More conflicts Response: Partner with the UN and other international organizations to present public opinions in case of conflicts. Migrant rehabilitation Response: Identity verification, migration tracking maps and a new business model based on job creation and employee-employer connectivity is developed. 79
Scenario - 15 Year
80
Scenario - 15 Year
Driving Forces Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
Broadcasting Incidents
Artificial intelligence
Service-based economy
The World is Flat
Conflicts between governments
Personal verification
VR/AR technology
Shared/ Decentralized services
Virtual environment
Driverless transport
Socio-economic gap
Internet of things
Hub of services
The final collapse of the European Union
Holography Access over ownership Deceased users = Active users Instead of traditional media
Blockchain
Miniaturization of
Robots are dominating the battlefield Government partners with/ controls social media Political campaigns
electronics Bug-Drones
Social Detox
Sustainable concepts
Terrorism 81
Scenario - 15 Year
Expanding Imagination
Environment VR/AR environment
Social Deceased users = Active users
Memorialized Accounts 2020
Connectivity beyond life 2035
Tech. AI, Virtual Personality, Holography
Politics Influence user behavior 82
Scenario - 15 Year
Expanding Imagination
Environment Safer public environment
Social Broadcasting live incidents
Emergency Services Public Safety/ Disaster Management
Tech. -Connecting emergency services to social media -Drone-bugs
Politics Govt. partnering with/ controlling Facebook 83
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
Expanding Imagination
- Making new connections
Economic Service-based / Shared economy/ Socio-econ. gap Political Government involved
Social All in one/ Personal verification/ Access over ownership
Marketplace
Healthcare
Environ. Sustainable concepts
Schools (Education)
Tech. AI / VR / Holography Jobs (Professionals)
Banking
Tourism (Travel)
84
Scenario - 15 Year
Prediction AI System
Expanding Imagination
Environ. The World is Flat
Tech. AI / Big data / Blockchain
Your Career: 5 Years >> 10 Years >> 15 Years 85
Scenario - 15 Year
Mapping Driving Forces
Government partners with/ More Significant controls social Conflicts between Service-based media Social Detox governments economy Holography Bug-Drones The World is FlatSustainable concepts Political campaigns Driverless transport
Broadcasting Personal Incidents
The final collapse of the European Union Hub of services
Terrorism
Socio-economic verification gap
Access over ownership
Artificial intelligence
Virtual environment
Shared/ Instead of Decentralized traditional media services Certain
Blockchain No. of Deceased users = No. of active users
Robots are dominating the battlefield
Uncertain
Internet of things VR/AR technology
Social Technological Economic Environment Political Less Significant
86
Scenario - 15 Year
Cause-Effect of Driving Forces
87
Scenario - 15 Year
Final Collapse of EU Cause
Effect
Economic
Social, Economic, Environmental, Political
Europe is now experiencing a wave of major political unrest, the already fragile alliance is witnessing a split along north-south lines.
Whole Europe will reorganize again and the Mediterranean is going to be overrun by refugees. It will affect global economy and environmental problems in poor areas. It may also cause political conflicts between countries.
88
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services Cause
Effect
Technological
Social, Economic, Environmental, Political
With the development of technology, people have started using multiple platforms or channels to tackle different problems in their lives. These services are now interconnected which have created a new kind of internet.
The hub of services is going to eliminate human intervention and improve the efficiency of the system by interconnecting automated services. The global economy is going to have a dramatic growth. People are going to feel the world getting closer. However, governments may intervene by controlling this hub of services to maintain authority over society.
89
Scenario - 15 Year
Conflicts Between Governments Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental
As the global economy changes, the power to dominate the world is going to be held by a few big countries. These big countries are going to compete each other through alliances with other smaller countries.
The global issues are all dependant on those the superpowers. Smaller countries don’t have much of a choice. Global market is completely linked to the greater economies. In order to face those conflicts, big countries are trying to upgrade their weaponry and intensify the environment.
90
Scenario - 15 Year
Terrorism Cause
Effect
Political
Social, Politics
Social media platforms are going to be increasingly used by terrorists to further their goals. Viral videos, live broadcasts, global reach and anonymity make social media a perfect tool for terrorists.
Fear and distress is an immediate impact of terrorism through social media. But as it becomes more common and reaches a global audience, it may lead to behavioral changes in populations such as lack of trust and hostility. It will also drive control mechanisms such as politics and laws.
91
Unstable
Scenario Logic Matrix
Economic
Scenario - 15 Year
Embraceable
Technological
Repudiating
Social Technological Economic Environment Political
Stable
92
Scenario - 15 Year
Plot Diagram
N
TIO AC ING RIS
IO
CT
GA
LIN
SETUP
L FA
N
TURNING POINT
RESOLUTION 93
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
European Union has finally collapsed and the Euro has been demonetized. European economy is going down and the contagion is affecting every other economy.
Setup
94
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
This has created a major job crisis in european countries like Greece, Spain and Ireland. As the inflation picks up, people are no longer able to afford food, energy or even water! The impact of this crisis is far greater than that of ‘The Great Depression’.
Rising Action 95
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
There is a new social movement to sell everything and focus on necessities of life. People are selling everything from cars to clothes in this quest for sustainability. They are installing solar panels and water collection methods to generate their own power and recycle water. They are even deconstructing their houses to grow their own food.
Turning Point
96
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services This has led Facebook to create a platform to connect all of these services so that they can talk to each other. This new hub of services is helping people sell surplus power, water and food seamlessly. Automated transportation and delivery systems by Facebook are also connected to this internet of services.
Falling Action 97
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
Facebook with its hub of services has single-handedly connected businesses, led people into sustainability as a way of life, and helped recover collapsed economies. Thanks to Facebook, ‘The Greatest Depression’ didn’t last as long as ‘The Great Depression’!
Resolution
98
Scenario - 15 Year
Story Narrative
99
Scenario - 15 Year
Domino Effect European Union has finally collapsed and the Euro has been demonetized. European economy is going down and the contagion is affecting every other economy. The fall of the Euro has had different impacts on different European countries. One after the other, like dominoes, each country’s economy is falling down. Germany, Spain, Ireland, Greece among others have gone back to their previous monetary and fiscal policies. The immediate effects are unemployment, social unrest, protests and migration. Even other countries have also been affected by this contagion. However, China and India are still on the positive side of economic growth even though their growth has slowed down.
100
Scenario - 15 Year
Fight for Survival
The consequences are the most dire in Spain, Ireland and Greece. As the inflation picks up, people are no longer able to afford food, energy or even water! The impact of this crisis is far greater than that of the Great Depression and it’s being referred to as ‘The Greatest Depression’.
People are fighting for survival as they struggle to afford the basic necessities of life. Global unemployment is at its highest in centuries. People from across the world are sharing stories of their struggle on social media. At the same time, movements like minimalism and sustainability are starting to gain momentum.
101
Scenario - 15 Year
Sparking Joy There is a new social movement to sell everything and focus on necessities of life. People are selling everything from cars to clothes in this quest for sustainability. They are installing solar panels and water collection methods to generate their own power and recycle water. They are even deconstructing their houses to grow their own food. A decade old trend of getting rid of things that don’t ‘spark joy’ is on the rise again, thanks to social media, but this time, it has taken the shape of extreme minimalism. People are redefining the word ‘luxury’ and anything that’s considered unnecessary for survival is being termed as luxurious. People have even started seeing opportunities in this movement as it is driving them towards environmental, economic and social equity. Affordable technology has aided people to create their own ‘powerhouses’, ‘reservoirs’ and ‘farms’.
102
Scenario - 15 Year
Connecting Potentials
This has led Facebook to create a platform to connect all of these services so that they can talk to each other. This new hub of services is helping people sell surplus power, water and food seamlessly. Automated transportation and delivery systems by Facebook are also connected to this internet of services.
By selling surplus energy, food and water, people are slowly starting to sustain themselves and revive the economy. The growth has been strikingly dramatic. Facebook’s new hub of services has created an effortless environment to make this possible by connecting all these smart services together. The hub directly takes from those who have and provides to those in need in real time, and in this exchange, there is no human intervention.
103
Scenario - 15 Year
Equilibrium
The hub of services has single-handedly connected businesses, led people into sustainability as a way of life, and helped recover collapsed economies. Thanks to Facebook, ‘The Greatest Depression’ didn’t last as long as ‘The Great Depression’! The new economic development model is not in pursuit of short-term interests, but stresses on the emphasis of a long-term sustainable economy.
104
Scenario - 15 Year
Implications & Responses
Unstable global economy Response: Developing a platform for services to interact with each other, empowering people to sell surplus resources thereby generating revenue. Increasing disparity between rich and poor Response: With the new platform of services, facebook will provide food, energy, water and communication to people by connecting them to the grid. This will give everyone access to basic services. Lack of empathy Response: Increase partnerships with various nonprofit organizations to keep improving one on one interaction services with AI and holographic technology to complement empathy toward society. Widespread sale of possessions Response: Developing an integrated network of driverless delivery system with drones and cars to automate the delivery process and make it efficient and 24x7x365. Increasing refugees Response: Generating support and compassion for migrants by creating a sense of a global community in partnership with influencers and NPOs.
105
Scenario - 15 Year
Black Swan Events 106
Scenario - 15 Year
Black Swan Plot Diagram
N
TIO AC ING RIS
IO
CT
GA
LIN
SETUP
L FA
N
TURNING POINT
RESOLUTION 107
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
European Union has finally collapsed and the Euro has been demonetized. European economy is going down and the contagion is affecting every other economy.
Setup
108
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
This has created a major job crisis in european countries like Greece, Spain and Ireland. As the inflation picks up, people are no longer able to afford food, energy or even water! The impact of this crisis is far greater than that of ‘The Great Depression’.
Rising Action 109
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
There is a new social movement to sell everything and focus on necessities of life. People are selling everything from cars to clothes in this quest for sustainability. They are installing solar panels and water collection methods to generate their own power and recycle water. They are even deconstructing their houses to grow their own food.
Turning Point
110
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services With the contagion spreading across Europe, China lends a helping hand by offering ‘easy loans’ to the affected countries. These loans are easy to attain but hard, really hard, to pay because of their high interest rates. Consumed in debts, the defaulting European countries surrender their resources to China. Communists now dominate the world and have taken the lead of global economy but they are losing the trust in the communities because of oppression on free expression. All forms of social media are threatened.
Falling Action 111
Scenario - 15 Year
Hub of Services
Facebook is developing human implants to create a new kind of internet– an internet of thoughts. This internet takes communication to a new form of language by not just transmitting thoughts and ideas but also emotions and feelings. Facebook also plans to launch a fleet of 120 satellites which would help people communicate to each other as well as broadcast from anywhere in the world.
Resolution
112
Scenario - 15 Year
It’s a trap!
With the contagion spreading across Europe, China lends a helping hand by offering ‘easy loans’ to the affected countries. These loans are easy to attain but hard, really hard, to pay because of their high interest rates. Consumed in debts, the defaulting European countries surrender their resources to China. Communists now dominate the world and have taken the lead of global economy but they are losing the trust in the communities because of oppression on free expression. All forms of social media are threatened. Facebook, with support from all other platforms, develops new ways to access the internet and tries to restore communication across the globe. But these developments don’t last long. There is a realization that the fundamental communication technology needs to evolve to bring about a change.
Falling Action 113
Scenario - 15 Year
iRenaissance
Facebook is developing human implants to create a new kind of internet– an internet of thoughts. This internet takes communication to a new form of language by not just transmitting thoughts and ideas but also emotions and feelings. Facebook also plans to launch a fleet of 120 satellites which would help people communicate to each other as well as broadcast from anywhere in the world. This new internet is expected to create a communication revolution by bringing back the power of free expression and democracy in the world. Experts are calling it ‘iRenaissance’.
Resolution
114
Scenario - 15 Year
Implications & Responses
Communist domination Response: Develop human implants to create a new kind of internet– an internet of thoughts, transmitting not just thoughts and ideas but also emotions and feelings. New communication infrastructure needed Response: Launch a fleet of satellites to support the new technological infrastructure and communicate from anywhere in the world. Lack of trust Response: Increase partnerships with various nonprofit organizations in different fields to rebuild relationships and trust. This is done by initiating interactive activities or events in the communities. Lack of empathy Response: Increase partnerships with various nonprofit organizations to keep improving one-on-one interaction services with AI and holographic technology to complement empathy toward society. Increasing disparity between rich and poor Response: With the new platform of services, facebook will provide food, energy, water and communication to people by connecting them to the grid. This will give everyone access to basic services.
115
Summary
116
What we learnt from this class DMGT 783 Design Futures: Trends, Foresight and Intuition has been a very insightful class for us through which we have successfully developed the required skills to analyze driving forces, build scenarios, assess responses and develop strategies accordingly. We learnt how to: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
Experiment with different methods of scenario planning. Generate logic models to build scenarios for futurecasting. Collect and analyze data to form meaningful patterns while creating scenarios. Synthesize and present findings to represent causal events and relationships. Understand the importance of black swan events while planning for scenarios. Form and present a compelling storytelling narrative. Use imagination with logic to build plausible scenarios. Take inspiration from events in the history to learn about how various actors and events in a system connect to each other, and building scenarios through this inspiration. 117
Bring people closer together.
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