Weak job growth forecast for Northeast B.C. over next decade

Matt Preprost editor@ahnfsj.ca

Fewer than 10,000 job openings are expected in northeastern B.C. over the coming decade.

That’s according to the province’s new labour market outlook released Wednesday, which predicts 9,700 openings between now and 2032, most of them to replace retiring workers.

Just 1,900 new jobs and 7,800 replacement jobs are forecast to be created in the region over the next 10 years, an overall 0.5% employment growth rate that’s third lowest in the province, ahead of the Cariboo and Kootenay regions.

According to the outlook, the top three industries with the most openings in the next decade will be in specialty trade contracting (980), oil, gas, and mining support services (680), and retail trade (610).

Bernier keeping eye on salvage wood subsidy

Mark Nielsen

Opposition forests critic

Mike Bernier taking a wait and see attitude to the provincial government’s recently-announced doubling of funding to Forest Enhancement Society of B.C.

For 2023, FESBC will have $50 million to distribute. Projects funded through FEBC subsidize retrieval of firedamaged wood and logging waste from areas too remote or costly to access.

Premier David Eby announced the allotment in January while attending the Truck Loggers Association Convention in Vancouver.

“Doubling in essence is good, if we get results with it,” Bernier said. However, Bernier said the better strategy is to give forest companies the certainty they need to make investment decisions. “To know that if they apply for permits, there will be a timeline that they can follow, that they’ll have access to timber and that they can look at reducing costs for them,” he said. “That’s what these companies want.”

The announcement came shortly after Canfor announced it will be shutting down a line at its Prince George Pulp and Paper Mill. Taylor pulp remains curtailed.

Whether Canfor will take advantage of the latest allotment remains to be seen but according to the Ministry of Forests, between October 2019 and January 2022, FEBC aided Canfor to the tune of $3.7 million to pull from the surrounding area low-grade fibre suitable for pulp that would otherwise be burned and have it trucked to the mill. In turn Canfor spent $29.4 million, based on $50 per cubic metre of the 587,769 cubic metres that was was retrieved.

Bernier, the B.C. Liberal MLA for Peace River South, said he will also be keeping an eye on details surrounding a $90-million fund to encourage job development in the valueadded forestry sector when a program guide and proposal form are released on February

28.

As it stands, the government has said that through the fund, Victoria will contribute up to $50,000 towards completion of business plans and technical assessments for fledgling capital projects and up to $10 million for “investment-ready” capital projects. Examples of the latter include “adopting innovative processes to manufacture valueadded forestry products from biomass or other alternatives,” according to a government backgrounder.

“We’ll be watching that for sure and it’s right back to the same thing,” Bernier said.

“I’m all in favour of making sure that we put in policies and supports if they’re going to tangibly support and keep people working in our communities. If it’s just for political gain, if the government’s making announcements and there’s no substance behind it, then that’s where I have a problem because that doesn’t help anybody.”

— Prince George Citizen

And job demand is expected to grow the fastest for nurses and residential care workers, with 480 openings forecast between now and 2032, and a 25% employment growth rate predicted over the next five years to 2027.

“Employment demand in the region is forecasted to increase each year by 0.5 per cent on average until 2032,” the outlook report says. “Over the next ten years, a total of 9,700 job openings are anticipated, of which 20 per cent will be generated by economic growth.”

As of 2022, there were 38,500 employed in the region.

Among the other top 10 in - dustries that will see the most openings by 2032 are:

• Oil and gas extraction580 openings (250 economic growth, 340 replacement)

• Heavy and civil engineering construction - 570 openings (150 growth, 420 replacement)

• Personal, non-automotive repair and non-profit services

- 500 openings (170 growth, 330 replacement)

• Nursing and residential care - 480 openings (380 growth, 90 replacement)

• Truck transportation and support - 460 openings (110 growth, 350 replacement)

• Utilities - 390 openings (140 growth, 250 replacement)

• Food services and drinking places - 360 openings (120 growth, 240 replacement)

According to the outlook for the northeast, the top three occupations for job openings requiring a degree will be for registered nurses and psychiatric nurses (110), natural resource managers (110), and elementary teachers (100).

The top three occupations for job openings requiring an apprenticeship certificate will be heavy equipment operators (200), millwrights and industrial mechanics (160), and cooks (140).

The top three occupations for job openings requiring a diploma will be administrative officers (210), oil and gas operators (210), and retail and wholesale trade managers (210).

And the top three occupations for job openings requiring high school will be truck drivers (460), janitors and building superintendents (180), and retail salespeople (170).