Atlas of economic complexity by Liber Libris

the atlas of M a p p i n g

P a t h s

ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY T o

P r o s p e r i t y Hausmann, Hidalgo et al.

the atlas of M a p p i n g

P a t h s

ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY T o

P r o s p e r i t y Hausmann, Hidalgo et al.

THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXIT Y MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY

AUTHORS: Ricardo Hausmann | César A. Hidalgo | Sebastián Bustos | Michele Coscia Sarah Chung | Juan Jimenez | Alexander Simoes | Muhammed A. Yıldırım ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research on which this Atlas is based began around 2006 with the idea of the product space. In the original paper published in Science in 2007, we collaborated with Albert-Laszlo Barabasi and Bailey Klinger. The view of economic development of countries as a process of discovering which products a country can master, a process we called self-discovery, came from joint work with Dani Rodrik and later also with Jason Hwang. We explored different implications of the basic approach in papers with Dany Bahar, Bailey Klinger, Robert Lawrence, Francisco Rodriguez, Dani Rodrik, Charles Sabel, Rodrigo Wagner and Andrés Zahler. Throughout, we received significant feedback and advice from Lant Pritchett, Andrés Velasco and Adrian Wood. We want to thank the dedicated team that runs Harvard’s Center for International Development (CID) for helping bring the Atlas to life: Marcela Escobari, Jennifer Gala, Irene Gandara Jones, Aimee Fox, Adriana Hoyos, Andrea Carranza, Anne Morriss and Catalina Prieto. We are also indebted to the Necsys team at the MIT Media Lab and to Sandy Sener. We thank the leadership at Harvard Kennedy School and the MIT Media Lab who were early enthusiasts of our work. The editorial design of this book was produced by DRAFT. We would like to especially acknowledge the contributions of Francisca Barros and Beltrán García. ISBN-10: 0615546625 ISBN-13: 9780615546629

the atlas of M a p p i n g

P a t h s

ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY T o

P r o s p e r i t y

PRE F A C E

ver the past two centuries, mankind has accomplished what used to be unthinkable. When we look back at our long list of achievements, it is easy to focus on the most audacious of them, such as our conquest of the skies and the moon. Our lives, however, have been made easier and more prosperous by a large number of more modest, yet crucially important feats. Think of electric bulbs, telephones, cars, personal computers, antibiotics, TVs, refrigerators, watches and water heaters. Think of the many innovations that benefit us despite our minimal awareness of them, such as advances in port management, electric power distribution, agrochemicals and water purification. This progress was possible because we got smarter. During the past two centuries, the amount of productive knowledge we hold expanded dramatically. This was not, however, an individual phenomenon. It was a collective phenomenon. As individuals we are not much more capable than our ancestors, but as societies we have developed the ability to make all that we have mentioned â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and much, much more. Modern societies can amass large amounts of productive knowledge because they distribute bits and pieces of it among its many members. But to make use of it, this knowledge has to be put back together through organizations and markets. Thus, individual specialization begets diversity at the national and global level. Our most prosperous modern societies are wiser, not because their citizens are individually brilliant, but because these societies hold a diversity of knowhow and because they are able to recombine it to create a larger variety of smarter and better products.

The social accumulation of productive knowledge has not been a universal phenomenon. It has taken place in some parts of the world, but not in others. Where it has happened, it has underpinned an incredible increase in living standards. Where it has not, living standards resemble those of centuries past. The enormous income gaps between rich and poor nations are an expression of the vast differences in productive knowledge amassed by different nations. These differences are expressed in the diversity and sophistication of the things that each of them makes, which we explore in detail in this Atlas. Just as nations differ in the amount of productive knowledge they hold, so do products. The amount of knowledge that is required to make a product can vary enormously from one good to the next. Most modern products require more knowledge than what a single person can hold. Nobody in this world, not even the saviest geek nor the most knowledgeable entrepreneur knows how to make a computer. He has to rely on others who know about battery technology, liquid crystals, microprocessor design, software development, metallurgy, milling, lean manufacturing and human resource management, among many other skills. That is why the average worker in a rich country works in a firm that is much larger and more connected than firms in poor countries. For a society to operate at a high level of total productive knowledge, individuals must know different things. Diversity of productive knowledge, however, is not enough. In order to put knowledge into productive use, societies need to reassemble these distributed bits through teams, organizations and markets. Accumulating productive knowledge is difficult. For the

most part, it is not available in books or on the Internet. It is embedded in brains and human networks. It is tacit and hard to transmit and acquire. It comes from years of experience more than from years of schooling. Productive knowledge, therefore, cannot be learned easily like a song or a poem. It requires structural changes. Just like learning a language requires changes in the structure of the brain, developing a new industry requires changes in the patterns of interaction inside an organization or society. Expanding the amount of productive knowledge available in a country involves enlarging the set of activities that the country is able to do. This process, however, is tricky. Industries cannot exist if the requisite productive knowledge is absent, yet accumulating bits of productive knowledge will make little sense in places where the industries that require it are not present. This “chicken and egg” problem slows down the accumulation of productive knowledge. It also creates important path dependencies. It is easier for countries to move into industries that mostly reuse what they already know, since these industries require adding modest amounts of productive knowledge. By gradually adding new knowledge to what they already know, countries economize on the chicken and egg problem. That is why we find empirically that countries move from the products that they already create to others that are “close by” in terms of the productive knowledge that they require. The Atlas of Economic Complexity attempts to measure the amount of productive knowledge that each country holds. Our measure of productive knowledge can account for the enormous income differences between the nations of the world and has the capacity to predict the rate at which countries

will grow. In fact, it is much more predictive than other wellknown development indicators, such as those that attempt to measure competitiveness, governance and education. A central contribution of this Atlas is the creation of a map that captures the similarity of products in terms of their knowledge requirements. This map provides paths through which productive knowledge is more easily accumulated. We call this map, or network, the product space, and use it to locate each country, illustrating their current productive capabilities and the products that lie nearby. Ultimately, this Atlas views economic development as a social learning process, but one that is rife with pitfalls and dangers. Countries accumulate productive knowledge by developing the capacity to make a larger variety of products

Ricardo Hausmann Director, Center for International Development at Harvard University, Professor of the Practice of Economic Development, Harvard Kennedy School, George Cowan Professor, Santa Fe Institute.

of increasing complexity. This process involves trial and error. It is a risky journey in search of the possible. Entrepreneurs, investors and policymakers play a fundamental role in this economic exploration. By providing rankings, we wish to clarify the scope of the achievable, as revealed by the experience of others. By tracking progress, we offer feedback regarding current trends. By providing maps, we do not pretend to tell potential explorers where to go, but to pinpoint what is out there and what routes may be shorter or more secure. We hope this will empower these explorers with valuable information that will encourage them to take on the challenge and thus speed up the process of economic development.

CĂŠsar A. Hidalgo ABC Career Development Professor, MIT Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Faculty Associate, Center for International Development at Harvard University.

We thank the many individuals who, early on, understood the potential impact of research on economic growth, and shared our teamâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s vision. The generosity of these supporters made this work feasible and now makes it available to individuals, organizations and governments throughout the world.

T h e a u th o r s w a n t t o a c k n o w l e d g e th e g e n e r o u s s u p p o rt o f :

c o n t e n t s

PA R T 1 12 17 24 30 41 53 56

WHAT, WHY AND HOW? SECTION 1

What Do We Mean by Economic Complexity?

SECTION 2

How Do We Measure Economic Complexity?

SECTION 3

Why Is Economic Complexity Important?

SECTION 4

How Is Complexity Different from Other Approaches?

SECTION 5

How Does Economic Complexity Evolve?

SECTION 6

How Can This Atlas Be Used?

SECTION 7

Which Countries Are Included in This Atlas?

PA R T 2 60 66 72 78 84

COMPLEXITY RANKINGS RANKING 1

Economic Complexity Index

RANKING 2

Expected Growth in Per Capita GDP to 2020

RANKING 3 Expected GDP Growth to 2020 RANKING 4

Change in Economic Complexity (1964-2008)

RANKING 5 Expected Contribution to World GDP Growth to 2020

PA R T 3 92 96 350

COUNTRY PAGES How to Read the Country Pages Albania

··· Zimbabwe

PA R T 1

WHAT, WHY AND HOW?

SEC T I O N 1 What Do We Mean by Economic Complexity?

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 15

hat are things made out of? One way of describing the economic world is to say that things are made with machines, raw materials and labor. Another way is to emphasize that products are made with knowledge. Consider toothpaste. Is toothpaste just some paste in a tube? Or do the paste and the tube allow us to access knowledge about the properties of sodium fluoride on teeth and about how to achieve its synthesis? The true value of a tube of toothpaste, in other words, is that it manifests knowledge about the chemicals that facilitate brushing, and that kill the germs that cause bad breath, cavities and gum disease. When we think of products in these terms, markets take on a different meaning. Markets allow us to access the vast amounts of knowledge that are scattered among the people of the world. Toothpaste embeds our knowledge about the chemicals that prevent tooth decay, just like cars embody our knowledge of mechanical engineering, metallurgy, electronics and design. Computers package knowledge about information theory, electronics, plastics and graphics, whereas apples embody thousands of years of plant domestication as well as knowledge about logistics, refrigeration, pest control, food safety and the preservation of fresh produce. Products are vehicles for knowledge, but embedding knowledge in products requires people who possess a working understanding of that knowledge. Most of us can be ignorant about how to synthesize sodium fluoride because we can rely on the few people who know how to create this

atomic cocktail, and who together with their colleagues at the toothpaste factory, can deposit it into a product that we can use. We owe to Adam Smith the idea that the division of labor is the secret of the wealth of nations. In a modern reinterpretation of this idea, the division of labor is what allows us to access a quantity of knowledge that none of us would be able to hold individually. We rely on dentists, plumbers, lawyers, meteorologists and car mechanics to sustain our standard of living, because few of us know how to fill cavities, repair leaks, write contracts, predict the weather or fix our cars. Many of us, however, can get our cavities filled, our cars repaired and our weather predicted. Markets and organizations allow the knowledge that is held by few to reach many. In other words, they make us collectively wiser. The amount of knowledge embedded in a society, however, does not depend mainly on how much knowledge each individual holds. It depends, instead, on the diversity of knowledge across individuals and on their ability to combine this knowledge, and make use of it, through complex webs of interaction. A hunter-gatherer in the Arctic must know a lot of things to survive. Without the knowledge embedded in an Inuit, most of us would die in the Arctic, as has been demonstrated by the number of Westerners who have tried and failed. Yet, the total amount of knowledge embedded in a hunter-gatherer society is not very different from that which is embedded in each one of its members. The secret of modern societies is not that each person holds much more productive knowledge than those in a more traditional society. The secret to modernity is that we collectively use large volumes of knowledge, while each one of us holds only

a few bits of it. Society functions because its members form webs that allow them to specialize and share their knowledge with others. We can distinguish between two kinds of knowledge: explicit and tacit. Explicit knowledge can be transferred easily by reading a text or listening to a conversation. Yesterday’s sports results, tomorrow’s weather forecast or the size of the moon can all be learned quickly by looking them up in a newspaper or on the web. And yet, if all knowledge had this characteristic, the world would be very different. Countries would catch up very quickly to frontier technologies, and the income differences across the world would be much smaller than what we see today. The problem is that crucial parts of knowledge are tacit and therefore hard to embed in people. Learning how to fix dental problems, speak a foreign language, or run a farm requires a costly and time-consuming effort. As a consequence, it does not make sense for all of us to spend our lives learning how to do everything. Because it is hard to transfer, tacit knowledge is what constrains the process of growth and development. Ultimately, differences in prosperity are related to the amount of tacit knowledge that societies hold. Because embedding tacit knowledge is a long and costly process, we specialize. This is why people are trained for specific occupations and why organizations become good at specific functions. To fix cavities you must be able to identify them, remove the decayed material and replace it. To play

baseball, you must know how to catch, field and bat, but you do not need to know how to give financial advice or fix cavities. On the other hand, to perform the function of baseball player, knowing how to catch a ball is not enough (you must also be able to field and bat). In other words, in allocating productive knowledge to individuals, it is important that the chunks each person gets be internally coherent so that he or she can perform a certain function. We refer to these modularized chunks of embedded knowledge as capabilities. Some of these capabilities have been modularized at the level of individuals, while others have been grouped into organizations and even into networks of organizations. For example, consider what has happened with undergraduate degrees, which in the US take four years of study. This norm has remained constant for the last four centuries. During the same period, however, knowledge has expanded enormously. The university system did not respond to the increase in knowledge by lengthening the time it takes to get a college degree. Instead, it increased the diversity of degrees. What used to be a degree in philosophy, split into several branches, one being natural philosophy, which later split into physics, chemistry and biology and later into other disciplines such as ecology, earth sciences and psychology. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Standard Occupation Classification for 2010 lists 840 different occupations, including 78 in healthcare, 16 in engineering, 35 kinds of scientists – in coarse categories such as “economists”, “physicists” and

“chemists” – five types of artists, and eight kinds of designers. We can all imagine a much more nuanced classification in our respective fields. For instance, we could distinguish between economists that specialize in labor, trade, finance, development, industrial organization, macro and econometrics, among others. If we did this further disaggregation for all occupations, we would easily go into the tens of thousands. The only way that society can hold all of the knowledge we have is by distributing coherent pieces of it among individuals. It is the way the world adapts to expanding knowledge. Most products, however, require more knowledge than can be mastered by any individual. Hence, those products require that individuals with different capabilities interact. Assume that a person has the capacity to hold an amount of tacit knowledge equal to one personbyte. How can you make a product that requires 100 different personbytes? Obviously, it cannot be made by a micro-entrepreneur working on her own. It has to be made either by an organization with at least 100 individuals (with a different personbyte each), or by a network of organizations that can aggregate these 100 personbytes of knowledge. How can a society hold a kilo-, mega- or giga-personbyte? Only through a deep division of labor, in which individuals become experts in small pieces of the available knowledge and then aggregate their personbytes into peoplebytes through organizations and markets. For example, to make a shirt you need to design it, pro-

cure the fabric, cut it, sew it, pack it, brand it, market it and distribute it. In a firm that manufactures shirts, expertise in each of these knowledge chunks will be held by different people. And shirts require all of them. Moreover, you need to finance the operation, hire the relevant people, coordinate all the activities and negotiate everybody’s buy-in, which in itself require different kinds of knowhow. We can say that putting together this operation requires know-who and know-where. Know-who can be thought of as knowledge of who has the requisite chunks of knowledge, and know-where as knowledge of where the people and organizations that have this knowledge are located. To make shirts, you can import the fabric and access the knowledge about looms and threading that is embedded in a piece of cloth. Yet some of the knowledge required cannot be accessed through shipped inputs. The people with the relevant knowledge must be near the place where shirts are made. In fact, just as knowhow is modularized in people in the form of individual capabilities, larger amounts of knowhow are modularized in organizations, and networks of organizations, as organizational or collective capabilities. For example, to operate a garment plant you need power and water. You need to be able to move raw materials in and ship the final product out. Workers need access to urban transportation, day care centers and health facilities. To be able to operate, the plant manager needs all of these services to be locally available. This implies that others must be aggre-

18 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

gating the personbytes required to generate power, provide clean water, and run a transportation system. The relevant capabilities to perform all of these functions reside in organizations that are able to package the relevant knowledge into transferable bundles. These are bundles of knowhow that are more efficiently organized separately and transferred as intermediate inputs. We can think of these bundles as organizational capabilities the manufacturer needs. Ultimately, the complexity of an economy is related to the multiplicity of useful knowledge embedded in it. For a complex society to exist, and to sustain itself, people who know about design, marketing, finance, technology, human resource management, operations and trade law must be able to interact and combine their knowledge to make products. These same products cannot be made in societies that are missing parts of this capability set. Economic complexity, therefore, is expressed in the composition of a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s productive output and reflects the structures that emerge to hold and combine knowledge. Knowledge can only be accumulated, transferred and preserved if it is embedded in networks of individuals and organizations that put this knowledge into productive use. Knowledge that is not used, however, is also not transferred, and will disappear once the individuals and organization

that have it retire or die. Said differently, countries do not simply make the products and services they need. They make the ones they can. To do so, they need people and organizations that possess relevant knowledge. Some goods, like medical imaging devices or jet engines, embed large amounts of knowledge and are the results of very large networks of people and organizations. By contrast, wood logs or coffee, embed much less knowledge, and the networks required to support these operations do not need to be as large. Complex economies are those that can weave vast quantities of relevant knowledge together, across large networks of people, to generate a diverse mix of knowledge-intensive products. Simpler economies, in contrast, have a narrow base of productive knowledge and produce fewer and simpler products, which require smaller webs of interaction. Because individuals are limited in what they know, the only way societies can expand their knowledge base is by facilitating the interaction of individuals in increasingly complex webs of organizations and markets. Increased economic complexity is necessary for a society to be able to hold and use a larger amount of productive knowledge, and we can measure it from the mix of products that countries are able to make.

SECTION 2 How Do We Measure Economic Complexity?

20 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ow do we go from what a country makes to what a country knows? If making a product requires a particular type and mix of knowledge, then the countries that make the product reveal having the requisite knowledge (see Technical Box 2.1). From this simple observation, it is possible to extract a few implications that can be used to construct a measure of economic complexity. First, countries whose residents and organizations possess more knowledge have what it takes to produce a more diverse set of products. In other words, the amount of embedded knowledge that a country has is expressed in its productive diversity, or the number of distinct products that it makes. Second, products that demand large volumes of knowledge are feasible only in the few places where all the requisite knowledge is available. We define ubiquity as the number of countries that make a product (Figure 2.1). Using this terminology, we can observe that complex products â&#x20AC;&#x201C;those that contain many personbytes of knowledgeâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;are less ubiquitous. The ubiquity of a product, therefore, reveals information about the volume of knowledge that is required for its production. Hence, the amount of knowledge that a country has is expressed in the diversity and ubiquity of the products that it makes. A game of scrabble is a useful analogy. In scrabble, players use tiles containing single letters to make words. For instance, a player can use the tiles R, A and C to construct the word CAR or ARC. In this analogy, each product is represented by a word, and each capability, or module of embedded knowledge, is represented by a letter. We assume that each player has plenty of copies of the letters they have. Our measure of economic complexity corresponds to estimating what fraction of the alphabet a player possesses, knowing only how many words he or she can make, and how many other players can also make those same words. Players who have more letters will be able to make more

words. So we can expect the diversity of words (products) that a player (country) can make to be strongly related to the number of letters (capabilities) that he (it) has. Long words will tend to be rare, since they can only be put together by players with many letters. Hence, the number of players that can make a word tells us something about the variety of letters each word requires: longer words tend to be less ubiquitous, while shorter words tend to be more common. Similarly, ubiquitous products are more likely to require few capabilities, and less ubiquitous products are more likely to require a large variety of capabilities. Diversity and ubiquity are, respectively, crude approximations of the variety of capabilities available in a country or required by a product. Both of these mappings are affected by the existence of rare letters, such as Q and X. For instance, players holding rare letters will be able to put together words that few other players can make, not because they have many letters, but because the letters that they have are rare. This is just like rare natural resources, such as uranium or diamonds. Yet, we can see whether low ubiquity originates in scarcity or complexity by looking at the number of other words that the makers of rare words are able to form. If these players can only make a few other words, then it is likely that rarity explains the low ubiquity. However, if the players that can make these rare words are, in general, able to put together many other words, then it is likely that the low ubiquity of the word reflects the fact that it requires a large number of letters and not just a few rare ones. Diversity can therefore be used to correct the information carried by ubiquity, and ubiquity can be used to correct the information carried by diversity. We can take this process a step further by correcting diversity using a measure of ubiquity that has already been corrected by diversity and vice versa. In fact, we can do this an infinite number of times using mathematics. This process converges after a few iterations and represents our quantitative measures of

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 21

F igure 2 . 1 : Graphical explanation of diversity and ubiquity.

D i v ersity(kc,0): : Diversity Diversity is related to the number of Diversityproducts is related to the number of that a country is connected products that ato.country is connected to.of This is equal to the number this country has that in the This is equal tolinks the that number of links network. In this example, using a this country hasofinthe the2009 network. this subset data, the In diversity 5, that of Argentina example, usingofaNetherlands subset ofisthe 2009 data, is 3, and that of Gana is 1.

NETHERLANDS (NLD)

the diversity of Netherlands is 5, that of Argentina is 3, and that of Gana is 1.

X-RAY MACHINES

MEDICAMENTS

ARGENTINA (ARG)

CREAMS AND POLISHES

CHEESE

GHANA (GHA) FROZEN FISH

Ubiquity (kp,0): Ubiquity U b i q uity is is :related to the number of Ubiquity is is related to the number of countries that a product is connected to. countries that a product is connected to. This equal to number the number links that This isis equal to the of linksof that this product hashas in the In this In this this product innetwork. the network. example, using a subset of the 2009 data, example, using a subset of the 2009 data, the ubiquity of Cheese is 2, that of Fish is 3 and that of Medicaments 1. 2, that of Fish is 3 the ubiquity of Cheeseis is and that of Medicaments is 1.

22 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

F igure 2 . 2 : Map of the World colored according to ECI Ranking.

Rank 1

128

complexity. For countries, we refer to this as the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). The corresponding measure for products gives us the Product Complexity Index. Technical Box 2.2 presents the mathematical definition of these two quantities and Ranking 1 lists countries sorted by their ECI. Figure 2.2 shows a map of the world colored according to a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ECI ranking. Consider the case of Singapore and Pakistan. The population of Pakistan is 34 times larger than that of Singapore. At market prices their GDPs are similar since Singapore is 38 times richer than Pakistan in per capita terms. Under the classification we use in this Atlas, they both export a similar number of different products, about 133. How can products tell us about the conspicuous differences in the level of development that exist between these two countries? Pakistan exports products that are on average exported by

28 other countries (placing Pakistan in the 60th percentile of countries in terms of the average ubiquity of their products), while Singapore exports products that are exported on average by 17 other countries (1st percentile). Moreover, the products that Singapore exports are exported by highly diversified countries, while those that Pakistan exports are exported by poorly diversified countries. Our mathematical approach exploits these second, third and higher order differences to create measures that approximate the amount of productive knowledge held in each of these countries. Ultimately, what countries make reveals what they know (see Information Box 2.1). Take medical imaging devices. These machines are made in few places, but the countries that are able to make them, such as the United States or Germany, also export a large number of other products. We can infer that medical imaging devices

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 23

I n f o r m a t i o n B o x 2 . 1 : A n a lt e r n a t i v e way t o u n d e r s ta n d o u r m e a s u r e s of economic complexity are complex because few countries make them, and those that do tend to be diverse. By contrast, wood logs are exported by most countries, indicating that many countries have the knowledge required to export them. Now consider the case of raw diamonds. These products are extracted in very few places, making their ubiquity quite low. But is this a reflection of the high knowledge-intensity of raw diamonds? Of course not. If raw diamonds were complex, the countries that would extract diamonds should also be able to make many other things. Since Sierra Leone and Botswana are not very diversified, this indicates that something other than large volumes of knowledge is what makes diamonds rare (see Information Box 2.2 on Product Complexity). This Atlas relies on international trade data. We made this choice because it is the only dataset available that has a rich detailed cross-country information linking countries to the products that they produce in a standardized classification. As such, it offers great advantages, but it does have limitations. First, it includes data on exports, not production. Countries may be able to make things that they do not export. The fact that they do not export them, however, suggests that they may not be very good at them. Countries may also export things they do not make. To circumvent this issue we require that countries export a fair share of the products we connect them to (see Technical Box 2.1). Second, because the data is collected by customs offices, it includes only goods and not services. This is an important drawback, as services are becoming a rising share of international trade. Unfortunately, the statistical efforts of most countries of the world have not kept up with this reality. Finally, the data does not include information on non-tradable activities. These are an important part of the economic eco-system that allows products and services to be made. Our current research is focused on finding implementable solutions to these limitations, and we hope we will be able to present them in future versions of this Atlas.

Understanding the measures of economic complexity described in this Atlas can be sometimes challenging. Analogies, however, can help get our minds around what the economic complexity index is able to capture. Think of a particular country and consider a random product. Now, ask yourself the following question: If this country cannot make this product, in how many other countries can this product be made? If the answer is many countries, then this country probably does not have a complex economy. On the other hand, if few other countries are able to make a product that this country cannot make, this would suggest that this is a complex economy. Let us illustrate this with a few examples. According to our measures, Japan and Germany are the two countries with the highest levels of economic complexity. Ask yourself the question: If a good cannot be produced in Japan or Germany, where else can it be made? That list of countries is likely to be a very short one, indicating that Japan and Germany are complex economies. Now take an opposite example: if a product cannot be made in Mauritania or Sudan, where else can it be made? For most products this is likely to be a long list of countries, indicating that Sudan and Mauritania are among the world’s least complex economies. This analogy is useful to understand the difference between economic complexity and the level of income per capita of a country. Two countries that have high levels of economic complexity, but still low levels of per capita income are China and Thailand. Ask yourself the question, if you cannot produce it in China or Thailand, where else can you produce it? That list of countries will tend to be relatively short. The comparison becomes starker if we restrict it to countries with a similar level of per capita income, like Iran, Peru and Venezuela, countries that do not make things that many other can. At the opposite end of this comparison, there are countries with high levels of per capita income but relatively low levels of economic complexity. Examples of this are Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Venezuela, Libya and Chile. These countries are not rich because of the productive knowledge they hold but because of their “geological luck”, given the large volumes of natural resources based wealth. Ask yourself the question; if you cannot build it in Chile or Venezuela, where else can you build it? The fact that there are many countries where it would be possible to produce many things that are not being made in Chile or Venezuela, including countries with a similar level of income such as Hungary or the Czech Republic, indicates that the level of economic complexity of these countries is low, despite their fairly high level of income. In fact, as we show in this Atlas, the gap between a country’s complexity and its level of per capita income is an important determinant of future growth: countries tend to converge to the level of income that can be supported by the knowhow that is embedded in their economy.

24 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

T E C H N I C A L B OX 2 . 1 : M E A S U R I N G E C O N O M I C C O M P L E X I T Y:

If we define , as a matrix that is 1 if country produces product , and otherwise, we can measure diversity and ubiquity simply by summing over the rows or columns of that matrix. Formally, we define:

and rewrite this as :

where

To generate a more accurate measure of the number of capabilities available in a country, or required by a product, we need to correct the information that diversity and ubiquity carry by using each one to correct the other. For countries, this requires us to calculate the average ubiquity of the products that it exports, the average diversity of the countries that make those products and so forth. For products, this requires us to calculate the average diversity of the countries that make them and the average ubiquity of the other products that these countries make. This can be expressed by the recursion:

We note (7) is satisfied when .This is the eigenvector of which is associated with the largest eigenvalue. Since this eigenvector is a vector of ones, it is not informative. We look, instead, for the eigenvector associated with the second largest eigenvalue. This is the eigenvector that captures the largest amount of variance in the system and is our measure of economic complexity. Hence, we define the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as:

where < > represents an average, stdev stands for the standard deviation and

We then insert (4) into (3) to obtain

Analogously, we define a Product Complexity Index (PCI). Because of the symmetry of the problem, this can be done simply by exchanging the index of countries (c) with that for products (p) in the definitions above. Hence, we define PCI as:

where

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 25

I n f o r m at i o n B o x 2 . 2 : T h e w o r l d ’ s m o s t a n d l e a s t c o m p l e x p r o d u c t s Table 2.2.1 and Table 2.2.2 show respectively the products that rank highest and lowest in the complexity scale. The difference between the world’s most and less complex products is stark. The most complex products are sophisticated chemicals and machinery that tend to emerge from organizations where a large number of high skilled individuals participate. The world’s least complex

products, on the other hand, are raw minerals or simple agricultural products. The economic complexity of a country is connected intimately to the complexity of the products that it exports. Ultimately, countries can only increase their score in the Economic Complexity Index by becoming competitive in an increasing number of complex industries.

TA B L E 2 . 2 . 1 : T O P 5 P R O D U C T S B Y C O M P L E X I T Y

Product Code (SITC4)

Product Name

Product Community

Product Complexity Index

7284

Machines & appliances for specialized particular industries

Machinery

2.27

8744

Instrument & appliances for physical or chemical analysis

Chemicals & Health

2.21

7742

Appliances based on the use of X-rays or radiation

Chemicals & Health

2.16

3345

Lubricating petrol oils & other heavy petrol oils

Chemicals & Health

2.10

7367

Other machine tools for working metal or metal carbide

Machinery

2.05

T able 2 . 2 . 2 : B ottom 5 products by complexity

Product Code (SITC4)

Product Name

Product Community

Product Complexity Index

3330

Crude oil

Oil

-3.00

2876

Tin ores & concentrates

Mining

-2.63

2631

Cotton, not carded or combed

Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others

-2.63

3345

Cocoa beans

Tropical Agriculture

-2.61

7367

Sesame seeds

Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others

-2.58

t e c h n i c a l b o x 2 . 2 : W h o m a k e s w h at ?

When associating countries to products it is important to take into account the size of the export volume of countries and that of the world trade of products. This is because, even for the same product, we expect the volume of exports of a large country like China, to be larger than the volume of exports of a small country like Uruguay. By the same token, we expect the export volume of products that represent a large fraction of world trade, such as cars or footwear, to represent a larger share of a country’s exports than products that account for a small fraction of world trade, like cotton seed oil or potato flour. To make countries and products comparable we use Balassa’s definition of Revealed Comparative Advantage or RCA. Balassa’s definition says that a country has Revealed Comparative Advantage in a product if it exports more than its “fair” share, that is, a share that is equal to the share of total world trade that the product represents. For example, in 2008, with exports of $42 billion, soybeans represented 0.35% of world trade. Of this total, Brazil exported nearly $11 billion, and since Brazil’s total exports for that year were $140 billion, soybeans accounted for 7.8% of Brazil’s exports. This represents around 21 times Brazil’s “fair share” of soybean exports (7.8% divided by 0.35%), so we can say that Brazil has revealed comparative advantage in soybeans. Formally, if represents the exports of country in product , we can express the Revealed Comparative Advantage that country has in product as:

We use this measure to construct a matrix that connects each country to the products that it makes. The entries in the matrix are 1 if country exports product with Revealed Comparative Advantage larger than 1, and o otherwise. Formally we define this as the matrix, where

is the matrix summarizing which country makes what, and is used to construct the product space and our measures of economic complexity for countries and products. In our research we have played around with cutoff values other than 1 to construct the matrix and found that our results are robust to these changes. Going forward, we smooth changes in export volumes induced by the price fluctuation of commodities by using a modified definition of RCA in which the denominator is averaged over the previous three years.

SEC T I O N 3 Why Is Economic Complexity Important?

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 27

s we have argued, economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. Seen this way, it is no coincidence that there is a strong correlation between our measures of economic complexity and the income per capita that countries are able to generate. Figure 3.1 illustrates the relationship between the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Income per capita for the 128 countries studied in this Atlas. Here, we separate countries according to their intensity in natural resource exports. We color in red those countries for which natural resources, such as minerals, gas and oil, represent at least 10% of GDP. For the 75 countries with a limited relative presence of natural-resource exports (in blue), economic complexity accounts for 75 percent of the variance in income per capita. But as the Figure 3.1 illustrates, countries with a large presence of natural resources can be relatively rich without being complex. If we control for the income that is generated from extractive activities, which has more to do with geology than knowhow, economic complexity can explain about 73 percent of the variation in income across all 128 countries. Figure 3.2 shows the tight relationship between economic complexity and income per capita that emerges after we take into account a country’s natural resource income. Economic complexity, therefore, is related to a country’s level of prosperity. As such, it is just a correlation of things we care about. The relationship between income and complexity, however, goes deeper than this. Countries whose

economic complexity is greater than what we would expect, given their level of income, tend to grow faster than those that are “too rich” for their current level of economic complexity. In this sense, economic complexity is not just a symptom or an expression of prosperity: it is a driver. Technical Box 3.1 presents the regression that we use to relate economic complexity to subsequent economic growth. The equation is simple. We regress the growth in per capita income over 10-year periods on economic complexity, while controlling for initial income and for the increase in real natural resource income experienced during that period. We also include an interaction term between initial income per capita and the ECI. The increase in the explanatory power of the growth equation that can be attributed to the Economic Complexity Index is at least 15 percentage points, or more than a third of the variance explained by the whole equation. Moreover, the size of the estimated effect is large: an increase of one standard deviation in complexity, which is something that Thailand achieved between 1970 and 1985, is associated with a subsequent acceleration of a country’s long-term growth rate of 1.6 percent per year. This is over and above the growth that would have been expected from mineral wealth and global trends. The ability of the ECI to predict future economic growth suggests that countries tend to move towards an income level that is compatible with their overall level of embedded knowhow. On average, their income tends to reflect their embedded knowledge. But when it does not, it gets corrected through accelerated or diminished growth. The gap between a country’s level of income and complexity is the key vari-

28 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 3.1: Shows the relationship between income per capita and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for countries where natural resource exports are larger than 10% of GDP (red) and for those where natural resource exports are lower than 10% of GDP (blue). For the latter group of countries, the Economic Complexity Index accounts for 75% of the variance. Countries in which the levels of natural resource exports is relatively high tend to be significantly richer than what would be expected given the complexity of their economies, yet the ECI still correlates strongly with income for that group.

NOR

QAT

105 KWT

AUS

OMN

TTO

GAB

GDP per capita in USD [2009]

LVA VEN

RUS

CHL

URY

KAZ

ARG

BWA

BRA

103

-3

-2

PER

-1

ISR

EST HRV LTU POL

TUR LBN

MUS ZAF CUB CRI JAM MKD COL DOM ECU ALB TUN NAM JOR TKM SLV COG MAR GEO GTM PRY SYR MNG IDN EGY BOL LKA HND MDA PHL NGA SDN PNG MRT YEM ZMB SEN GHA VNM NIC CMR CIV IND KGZ UZB PAK TJK KEN LAO KHM MLI BGD TZA MDG GIN UGA MOZ ZWE ETH MWI LBR AZE DZA IRN

AGO

ESP HKG PRT

CHE SWE IRL USAFRA FIN GBR AUT DEU ITA SGP

BEL

CAN GRC NZL

LBY

DNK

NLD

ARE

BGR SRB BIH UKR

MYS PAN

ROU

JPN

SVN

SVK KOR

CZE

HUN MEX

BLR

THA CHN

R2 = 0.75

Economic Complexity Index [2008]

FIGURE 3.2:

1.5

Shows the relationship between economic complexity and income per capita obtained after controlling for each countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s natural resource exports. After including this control, through the inclusion of the log of natural resource exports per capita, economic complexity and natural resources explain 73% of the variance in per capita income across countries.

FRA DOM

.5 0 -.5

SDN

-2

CMR

-1

CHE

NLD

ITA ESP IRL USA AUT GBR LBN KWT NOR LBY BEL MWI FIN SAU DNK SWE CRI ARE AGO SGP PRT KOR BGD HRV HUN OMN JOR HKG KHM NZL TUR SVK CZE SRB AUS CAN MUS ROU EST URY GAB LVA LTU POL ISR PRY TTO KAZ MDA PAN THA LKA SLV DZA BLR BRA VEN ARG CHL CHN RUS CUB BWA TKM MEX ALBZAF MYS BGR SENCOL IRN MAR MKD BIH PHL PER ECU NAM PAK UKR JAM O GTMKEN PNG TUN HND GEO MNG BOL NGA MRT CIV EGY IDN IND SYR NCC YEM MDG UGA GIN ETH ZMB GHA UZB VNM LAO KGZ MLI TJK TZA LBR MOZ ZWE GRC

-1

Income per capita controlling for initial income and proportion of natural resource exports per capita in logs [2008]

SVN

QAT

Economic Complexity Index controlling for initial income and proportion of natural resource exports per capita in logs [2008]

DEU

AZE JPN

COG

R2 = 0.73 2

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 29

FIGURE 3.3: Shows the relationship between the annualized GDP per capita growth for the period between 1998 and 2008 and the Economic Complexity Index for 1998, after taking into account the initial level of income and the increase in natural resource exports during that period (in constant dollars as a share of initial GDP).

CHN

BLR

LVA KHM

CUB

EST

ALB

TTO

SGP

LTU

RUS KAZ

GEO

UKR

BGR ROU SVK

KOR

TJK

BIH

SVN IND VNM MDA POL IRL HUN HRV ETH CZE JOR DOM LKA THA TUN UZB FIN SWE MUS LAO UGA BGD MNG MOZ MYS CRI PER IDN MAR TZA IRN EGY MKD GBR KGZ AUT ESPPHLZAF BEL AUS LBN TUR CAN NZL NLD GHA USA SLV OMN NIC DEU CHE ISR BRA CHL ARG FRA ARE DNK ECU JPN MEX PRT URY PAK COL HND NGA NOR AZE ZMB ITA MLI VEN SEN GTM JAM DZA LBR CMR SAU PRY SYR KENMRT MDG YEM BOL GIN HKG

GRC

Growth in per capita GDP, controlling for initial income and growth in natural resource exports [1998-2008]

.05

TKM

PAN AGO

COG GAB

-.05

PNG CIV

-1

Economic Complexity Index controlling for initial income and growth in natural resource export [1998]

able that we use here to estimate the growth potential of countries (Figure 3.3). It is important to note what the Economic Complexity Index is not about: it is not about export-oriented growth, openness, export diversification or country size. Although we calculate the ECI using export data, the channel through which it contributes to future growth is not limited to its impact on the growth of exports. Clearly, countries whose exports grow faster, all other things being equal, will necessarily experience higher GDP growth. This is simply because exports are a component of GDP. However, as Technical Box 3.2 shows, the contribution of the ECI to future economic growth remains strong after accounting for the growth in real exports. The ECI is also not about openness to trade: the impact of the ECI on growth is essentially unaffected if we account for differences in the ratio of exports to GDP. And the ECI is not

a measure of export diversification. Controlling for standard measures of export concentration, such as the HerfindahlHirschman Index, does not affect our results. In fact, neither openness nor export concentration are statistically significant determinants of growth after controlling for the ECI (see Technical Box 3.2). Finally, the ECI is not about a country’s size. The ability of the ECI to predict growth is unaffected when we take into account a country’s size, as measured by its population, while the population itself is not statistically significant (see Technical Box 3.2). In short, economic complexity matters because it helps explain differences in the level of income of countries, and more important, because it predicts future economic growth. Economic complexity might not be simple to accomplish, but the countries that do achieve it, tend to reap important rewards.

30 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Technical Box 3.1: The Growth regression an increase in the ECI of one standard deviation would accelerate growth by 2.3 percent per year in a country at the 10th percentile of income, by 1.6 percent in a country at the median income, and by 0.7 percent for countries in the 90th percentile. The variables contained in Column 2 jointly account for 43.4 percent of the variance in growth rates. The difference between these two regressions indicates that the ECI increases the regression’s R2 in 15 percentage points. This represents over a third of the explained fraction of the 43.4 percent of the variance that the equation explains as a whole. The estimates of the second column of Table 3.1.1 are used to forecast the growth in GDP per capita and rank countries according to their growth potential (See Table 3.1.1). To predict average annualized growth between 2008 and 2020 we make two assumptions. First, we assume a worldwide common growth term for the decade, which we take to be the same as that observed in the 19982008 period. Changing this assumption would affect the growth rate of all countries by a similar amount but would not change the rankings. Second, we assume that there will be no change in the real value of natural resource exports as a share of initial GDP. This implies that the we assume that natural resource exports in real terms in the next decade will remain at the record-high levels achieved in 2008. This assumption may underestimate the effect on countries whose volumes of natural resource extraction will increase significantly and over-estimate the growth in countries that will see their natural-resource export volumes declines. A higher (lower) constant dollar price of natural resource exports would improve (reduce) the projected growth performance of countries by an amount proportional to their natural resource intensity.

To analyze the impact of the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) on future economic growth we estimate two regressions where the dependent variable is the annualized growth rate of GDP per capita for the periods 1978-1988, 1988-1998 and 1998-2008. In the first of these equations we do not include ECI and use only two control variables: the logarithm of the initial level of GDP per capita in each period and the increase in natural resource exports in constant dollars as a share of initial GDP. The first variable captures the idea that, other things equal, poorer countries should grow faster than rich countries and catch up. This is known in the economic literature as convergence. The second control variable captures the effect on growth of increases in income that come from natural resource wealth, which complexity does not explain. In addition, we include a dummy variable for each decade, capturing any common factor affecting all countries during that decade, such as a global boom or a widespread financial crisis. Taken together, these variables account for 28.5 percent of the variance in countries’ growth rates. This is shown in the first column of Table 3.1.1. In addition to the above mentioned variables, the second regression includes the effect of economic complexity on growth. We do this by adding two additional terms: the ECI at the beginning of the decade and an interaction term between the ECI and the initial level of GDP per capita. The interaction attempts to capture the idea that the contribution of economic complexity to future economic growth depends on the level of per capita income. The second column of Table 3.1.1 shows that economic complexity is strongly associated with future economic growth. The negative coefficient on the interaction term indicates that the impact of complexity on growth declines with a country’s level of income. For example, according to the estimation in Column 2, and using data for 1998,

T able 3 . 1 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc (by decade) (1978-1988, 1988-1998, 1998-2008) VARIABLES Initial Income per capita, log Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP)

(1)

(2)

-0.00017

-0.00638***

(0.001)

0.03960***

0.03682***

(0.008)

(0.010)

Initial Economic Complexity Index (ECI)

0.04430*** (0.009)

[ ECI] X [Income per capita, log]

-0.00371*** (0.001)

Constant

Observations R2 Year FE

0.03036***

0.08251***

(0.008)

(0.011)

291

0.285

0.434

Yes

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 31

T e c h n i c a l B ox 3 . 2 : E c o n o m i c c o m p l e x i t y: t h e v o l u m e a n d c o n c e n t r at i o n o f e x p o r t s a n d c o u n t r y s i z e

This box explores the robustness of the impact of the Economic Complexity Index on growth. While the ECI is constructed using export data, its relationship with future growth is not driven by export volumes or concentration. To show this, we start with our basic growth equation (Table 3.2.1, column 1). Column 2 adds to this equation the increase in the real value of the exports of goods and services in the decade in question as a fraction of initial GDP. Exports are a component of GDP, and therefore, we expect them to contribute to growth. Nevertheless, after including the increase in exports, the effect of

ECI on growth remains strong and significant. Column 3 introduces export as a share of GDP. We use this as a measure of openness. Column 4 includes the Herfindahl-Hirschman index as a measure of export concentration. Column 5 includes the log of initial population as a measure of size. This is equivalent to introducing total GDP, given that we are already controlling for GDP per capita. The contribution to growth of the variables introduced in columns 3, 4 and 5 are estimated to be very close to zero, are not statistically significant and do not affect the ability of the ECI to predict future economic growth.

TA B L E 3 . 2 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc (by decade) (1978-1988, 1988-1998, 1998-2008) VARIABLES Initial Economic Complexity Index (ECI)

[ECI] X [Income per capita, log]

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

0.04430***

0.03005***

0.04240***

0.04143***

0.04389***

(0.009)

(0.007)

(0.008)

(0.010)

(0.009)

-0.00371***

-0.00244***

-0.00345***

-0.00354***

-0.00381***

(0.001)

Increase exports (goods and services)

0.04549***

- in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP)

(0.007)

Exports to GDP

0.00009 (0.000)

Export Concentration

-0.00890 (0.008)

Population, log

0.00168 (0.001)

Initial Income per capita, log

Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Constant

Observations R2 Year FE Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

-0.00638***

-0.00562***

-0.00729***

-0.00611***

-0.00558***

(0.001)

0.03682***

0.00169

0.03441***

0.03699***

0.03758***

(0.010)

(0.005)

(0.008)

(0.010)

0.08251***

0.06741***

0.08616***

0.08145***

0.04878**

(0.011)

(0.022)

291

260

284

291

0.434

0.584

0.449

0.436

0.440

Yes

SEC T I O N 4 How Is Complexity Different from Other Approaches?

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 33

e are certainly not the first ones to look for correlates or causal factors of income and growth. There are plenty of others who have come before us. One strand of the literature has looked at the salience of institutions in determining growth, whereas others have looked at human capital or broader measures of competitiveness. Clearly, more complex economies have better institutions, more educated workers and more competitive environments, so these approaches are not completely at odds with each other or with ours. In fact, institutions, education, competitiveness and economic complexity emphasize different aspects of the same intricate reality. It is not clear, however, that these different approaches have the same ability to capture factors that are verifiably important for growth and development. In this section, we compare each of these measures with the Economic Complexity Index and gauge their marginal contribution to income and economic growth.

measures of governance and institutional quality Some of the most respected measures of institutional quality are the six Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs), which the World Bank has published biennially since 1996. These indicators are used, for example, as eligibility criteria by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) when selecting the countries they chose to support. These criteria are based on the direct connection between governance and growth and poverty reduction.

To the extent that governance is important to allow individuals and organizations to cooperate, share knowledge and make more complex products, it should be reflected in the kind of industries that a country can support. Therefore, the Economic Complexity Index indirectly captures information about the quality of governance in the country. Which indicator captures information that is more relevant for growth is an empirical question. Here we compare the contribution to future economic growth implied by the WGIs and the ECI using a technique described in Technical Box 4.1. Since the WGIs are available only since 1996, we perform this exercise using the 19962008 period as a whole and as two consecutive 6-year periods. We also compare with each individual WGI and with the six of them together. Figure 4.1 shows that the ECI accounts for 15.1 percent of the variance in economic growth during the 1996-2008 period, while the six WGIs combined account only for 1.0 percent. For the estimation using the two six year periods, we find that ECI accounts for 10.5% of the variance in growth, whereas the six WGIs combined account for 1.6%. We conclude that as far as future economic growth is concerned, the Economic Complexity Index captures significantly more growth-relevant information than the 6 World Governance Indicators, either individually or combined. This does not mean that governance is not important for the economy. It suggests that the aspects of governance important for growth are weakly reflected in the WGIs and appear to be more strongly reflected in the economic activities that thrive in each country. These may be more effectively captured by the Economic Complexity Index.

34 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 4.1: Contribution to the variance of economic growth from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and from the measures of governance and institutional quality.

Economic Complexity Index All Instituional Variables Political Stability Voice and Accountability 12 years

Rule of Law

6 Years

Regulatory Quality Government Effectiveness Control of Corruption

10%

15%

Contribution to R2

measures of human capital Another strand of the growth and development literature has looked at the impact of human capital on economic growth. The idea that human capital is important for income and growth is not unrelated to our focus on the productive knowledge that exists in a society. The human capital literature, however, has placed its attention on measures of formal education. Instead, our approach emphasizes the tacit productive knowledge that is embedded in a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic activities. The standard variables used as a proxy for human capital are the number of years of formal schooling attained by those currently of working age, or the school enrollment of the young (Barro and Lee, 2010). Since these indicators do not take into account the quality of the education received by pupils, they have been subject to criticism resulting in new measures of educational quality. These measures use test scores from standardized international exams, such as the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) or the Trend in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Hanuschek and Woessmann (2008) collected data for all the countries that participated in either program and used this information to generate a measure of the cognitive ability of students for a cross-section of countries around the year 2000. The information on productive knowhow captured by the Economic Complexity Index and by measures of human capital, are not just two sides of the same coin. Analytically, human capital indicators try to measure how much of the same knowledge individuals have, whether knowledge is measured as years of study of the national curriculum or as

the skills mastered by students according to standardized international tests. In contrast, the Economic Complexity Index tries to capture the total amount of productive knowledge that is embedded in a society as a whole and is related to the diversity of knowledge that a society holds. Clearly, for a complex economy to exist, its members must be able to read, write and manipulate symbols, such as numbers or mathematical functions. This is what is taught in schools. Yet, the converse is not true: the skills acquired in school may be a poor proxy for the productive knowledge of society. For example, if a country were to achieve the goal of having everybody finish a good secondary education and if this was the extent of its productive knowledge, nobody would know how to make a pair of shoes, a metal knife, a roll of paper or a patterned piece of cotton fabric. There is a reason why job offers request years of experience and not just years of schooling. This means that what a society makes affects what kinds of knowledge new workers can acquire on the job. The human capital approach emphasizes the opposite logic: what workers formally study is what affects what a society can produce. Figure 4.2 shows the relationship between our measure of economic complexity and years of schooling for the year 2000. It is clear that there is positive relationship between the two (R2=50%). Countries like India and Uganda, or Mongolia and Mexico, have very similar levels of average formal education. Yet, they differ dramatically in economic complexity. India is much more complex than Uganda, and Mexico is much more complex than Mongolia. Figure 4.3 shows that the relationship between cognitive ability and economic complexity is also positive.Here we

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 35

FIGURE 4.2:

FIGURE 4.3:

Relationship between Years of Schooling and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for the year 2000.

CAN

MOZ MLI

YEM

KOR

RUS

HRV HKG PRT ROU JOR MYS BGR ZAF GRC THA COL CHN URY ARG CHL TUR IND LTU SAU LVA VEN TUN KAZ KGZ TTO IDN EGY PHL ALB PAN ARE PER PRY QAT GAB CRI TJK MAR KWT DZA IRN LBY ZWE LKA VNM BOL PAK JAM ZMB SLV ECU MNG CUB GTM BGD LBR KEN MUS SYR COG MRT SEN GHA LAO CIV HND TZA PNG SDN NIC KHM UGA

UKR

ISR HUN NOR NZL EST AUS

NLD

CZE

MEX

BRA

JOR

ZAF SAU

IDN

PHL

PER

CHL COL

ARG TUN

MEX BRA

USA

ALB

URY IND

LBN TUR EGY

GBR

SWE

CHE

FIN FRA IRL AUT DNK CZE BEL ITA SVN SVK NLD ISR ESP CAN HUN POL RUS NOR MYS NZL PRT HKG BGR GRC EST THA CHN MDA LTU LVA AUS

SGP KOR

MKD ZWE

MAR

IRN

KWT

-1

DNK

IRL SVK

BEL

Economic Complexity Index

ITA SVN

USA

FRA

ESP POL

−1

Economic Complexity Index

SGP

SWE

GBR

AUT

JPN

DEU CHE FIN

Relationship between Cognitive Ability and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for the year 2000.

GHA NGA

CMR

−2

MWI

Years of schooling

find that Brazil and Ghana are two countries with similar levels of cognitive ability, but very different levels of economic complexity. Brazil is two standard deviations more complex than Ghana. The same is true for Colombia and Nigeria. Their measured cognitive abilities are the same, but Colombia is nearly 1.5 standard deviations more complex than Nigeria. For illustration purposes, consider the case of Ghana and Thailand. Both countries had similar levels of schooling in 1970, but Ghana expanded education more vigorously than Thailand in the subsequent 40 years (Figure 4.4). But Ghana’s economic complexity and income stagnated as it remained an exporter of cocoa, aluminum, fish and forest products. By contrast, between 1970 and 1985 Thailand underwent a massive increase in economic complexity, equivalent to a change of one standard deviation in the Economic Complexity Index (Figure 4.5). This caused a sustained economic boom in Thailand after 1985. As a consequence, the level of income per capita between Ghana and Thailand has since diverged dramatically (Figure 4.6). Next, we measure these indicators’ ability to predict future economic growth, using the same technique that we employed to compare ECI to the WGIs (see Technical Box 4.2). We begin by looking at the relationship between education, complexity and a country’s level of income per capita. While data on years of schooling and school enrollment is available for several years, the data on educational quality exists only for a cross-section of countries around the year 2000. We use the data for this year to estimate equations where the dependent variable is the level of income per capita and the independent variables are the years of schooling of

3.5

4.5

5.5

Cognitive Ability

the labor force, the Hanushek and Woessmann measure of cognitive ability, and the ECI. We do not use school enrollment as this variable affects future human capital but not the human capital invested in creating today’s income. The results, presented in Figure 4.7, indicate that the Economic Complexity Index explains 17.2 percent of the variance while years of schooling and cognitive ability account for only 3.6 percent of the variance when combined. We also look at the ability of human capital and complexity to explain future growth. To do this we follow a similar methodology as before (see Technical Box 4.2). In this case, we include data on school enrollment at the secondary and tertiary levels as these would affect the years of schooling of the labor force going forward. We do not include cognitive ability as this variable exists only for a single year. Figure 4.8 shows that economic complexity accounts for 12.1 percent of the variance in economic growth rates for the three decades between 1978 and 2008. All education variables, on the other hand, account only for 2.6 percent when combined. These results show that the Economic Complexity Index contains information that is more directly related to a country’s level of income and its future rate of growth than the standard variables used to measure human capital.

measures of competitiveness Finally, we look at measures of competitiveness. The most respected source of these measures is the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (GCI). The GCI has been published since 1979. Over the course of more than 30 years, the coverage of the GCI has been expanded and

36 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

FIGURE 4.4:

Years of schooling of Thailand and Ghana as a function of time.

Thailand

Years of Schooling

Ghana

1960

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

2010

FIGURE 4.5:

Economic Complexity Index (ECI) of Thailand and Ghana as a function of time.

Thailand

-2

“We define competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. Because the rates of return are the fundamental drivers of the growth rates of the economy, a more competitive economy is one that is likely to grow faster in the medium to long run.” (global competitiveness report 2010. chapter 1.1, page 4)

-4

Economic Complexity Index

Ghana

1960

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

2010

FIGURE 4.6:

2500

Evolution of the GDP per capita of Thailand and Ghana as a function of time.

Thailand

500

1000

1500

2000

Ghana

GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

improved methodologically, going through two major revisions in 2001 and 2006. By 1995, the GCR ranked less than 50 countries, but over the years this number has increased, now reaching over 130 countries. The claim of the Global Competitiveness Report is that the index captures the fundamental variables that drive growth over the medium term:

1960

1970

1980

Year

1990

2000

2010

The GCI develops over 150 measures of elements that it considers important for competitiveness and then averages them. The ECI looks, instead, at the actual kinds of industry that a country can support. Both should capture information that is relevant to an economy’s ability to grow. Which one does so more effectively is an empirical question that we address next. Since we only have data for the GCI rankings, and not the underlying value of the index, we do the analysis using the rankings of the Economic Complexity Index instead of its value. This allows for a fairer comparison. We do comparisons using 5 and 10 year panels starting in 1979 and find that the GCI rankings contribute significantly less to the variance of economic growth than the ECI (see Technical Box 4.3 and Figure 4.9). We conclude that the Economic Complexity Index can account for a significant fraction of the cross-country variation in income per capita and economic growth, and that the ECI is a much stronger predictor of growth than other commonly used indicators that measure human capital, governance or competitiveness.

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 37

FIGURE 4.7: Contribution to the variance of income from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and measures of Human Capital.

Economic Complexity Index All Education Variables Years of Schooling Cognitive Abilities 0%

10%

15%

Contribution to R2

FIGURE 4.8: Contribution to the variance of economic growth from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and measures of Human Capital.

Economic Complexity Index All Education Variables Years of Schooling Tertiary School Enrollment Secondary School Enrollment 0%

10%

15%

Contribution to R2

FIGURE 4.9: Contribution to the variance of economic growth from the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and measures of competitiveness.

Economic Complexity ranking 10 years 5 Years

10%

Contribution to R2

15%

WEF - Competitiveness Ranking 20%

38 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

TECHN I CAL B OX 4 . 1 : G o v e r n a n c e a n d C o m p l e x i t y We compare the contribution to economic growth of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs) and economic complexity by estimating a growth regression where all of the WGIs and the Economic Complexity Index are used as explanatory variables. As controls we include the logarithm of per capita income, the increase in natural resource exports during the period and the initial

share of GDP represented by natural resource exports. The contribution of each variable is estimated by taking the difference between the R2 obtained for the regression using all variables and that obtained for the regression where the variable was removed.

TA B L E 4 . 1 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc (6 years) 1996-2002, 2002-2008 VARIABLES

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

-0.00253***

-0.00149***

-0.00251***

-0.00257***

-0.00253***

-0.00258***

-0.00254***

-0.00210***

(0.000)

0.00420**

0.00246

0.00418**

0.00417**

0.00426**

0.00423**

0.00431**

0.00411**

0.00393**

- in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP)

(0.002)

(0.003)

(0.002)

Initial NR exports to GDP

0.01181***

0.00879***

0.01178***

0.01177***

0.01169***

0.01184***

0.01214***

0.01174***

0.01121***

(0.002)

(0.003)

(0.002)

0.00547***

0.00536***

0.00598***

0.00551***

0.00531***

0.00537***

0.00500***

(0.001)

-0.00035**

-0.00034**

-0.00042**

-0.00036**

-0.00032**

-0.00034**

-0.00026*

(0.000)

Income per capita, logs

Increase in natural resource exports

Initial Economic Complexity Index (ECI)

[ECI] x GDP per capita, log

Initial Control of Corruption

-0.00006

-0.00123

0.00003

-0.00005

0.00000

-0.00006

(0.001)

0.00029

0.00110

-0.00006

0.00050

0.00036

0.00013

0.00025

(0.001)

0.00102**

0.00119**

0.00091**

0.00104**

0.00105**

0.00106**

0.00107**

(0.000)

0.00022

0.00105

0.00046

0.00031

0.00082

0.00003

0.00029

(0.001)

-0.00056

-0.00125

-0.00050

-0.00052

-0.00068

-0.00053

-0.00039

(0.001)

0.00032

0.00053

0.00034

0.00031

0.00050

0.00033

0.00014

(0.000)

(0.001)

(0.000)

0.02428***

0.01621***

0.02412***

0.02410***

0.02452***

0.02421***

0.02453***

0.02429***

0.01868***

(0.003)

(0.002)

Observations

243

Adjusted R2

0.420

0.315

0.417

0.422

0.408

0.422

0.420

0.421

0.404

Yes

10.5%

0.3%

0.2%

1.2%

0.2%

0.0%

0.1%

1.6%

Initial Government Effectiveness

Initial Political Stability

Initial Rule of Law

Initial Regulatory Quality

Initial Voice and Accountability

Constant

Year FE R2 difference

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 39

Table 4.1.1 shows the results of this procedure using two consecutive six year periods. Table 4.1.2 shows the same procedure using one twelve year period (1996-2008). Figure 4.1 of the main text, illustrates the differences in R2 between the regression using all variables and those where individual variables were removed.

TA B L E 4 . 1 . 2

Annualized growth in GDP pc (12 years) 1996-2008 VARIABLES Income per capita, logs

Increase in natural resource exports - in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP) Initial NR exports to GDP

Initial Economic Complexity Index [ECI]

[ECI] x [GDP per capita, log]

Initial Control of Corruption

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

-0.00202***

-0.00127***

-0.00199***

-0.00213***

-0.00203***

-0.00196***

-0.00207***

-0.00201***

-0.00202***

(0.000)

0.00228***

0.00255***

0.00226***

0.00233***

0.00228***

0.00227***

0.00233***

0.00232***

0.00235***

(0.000)

0.00361***

0.00314**

0.00357***

0.00367***

0.00342***

0.00367***

0.00383***

0.00361***

0.00369***

(0.001)

0.00380**

0.00371***

0.00436***

0.00405**

0.00415***

0.00364**

0.00392**

0.00467***

(0.002)

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.001)

-0.00017

-0.00015

-0.00026

-0.00020

-0.00014

-0.00019

-0.00026**

(0.000)

0.00004

-0.00079

-0.00027

0.00001

0.00029

0.00005

-0.00003

(0.001)

-0.00097

-0.00040

-0.00117

-0.00080

-0.00069

-0.00107

-0.00087

(0.001)

0.00065*

0.00079*

0.00054

0.00057*

0.00078**

0.00069*

0.00059*

(0.000)

0.00103

0.00237***

0.00121*

0.00073

0.00135*

0.00087

0.00094

(0.001)

-0.00040

-0.00125*

-0.00036

-0.00051

-0.00024

-0.00053

(0.001)

-0.00030

-0.00014

-0.00028

-0.00019

-0.00016

-0.00021

-0.00042

(0.000)

(0.001)

(0.000)

0.01960***

0.01384***

0.01936***

0.02052***

0.01963***

0.01918***

0.01993***

0.01961***

0.01954***

(0.003)

(0.002)

(0.003)

(0.002)

Observations

118

Adjusted R2

0.516

0.365

0.516

0.514

0.510

0.513

0.518

0.519

0.506

15.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.6%

0.3%

0.2%

0.3%

1.0%

Initial Government Effectiveness

Initial Political Stability

Initial Rule of Law

Initial Regulatory Quality

Initial Voice and Accountability

Constant

Difference in R2

40 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

TECHN I CAL B OX 4 . 2 : E d u c a t i o n , C o g n i t i v e Abi l i t y a n d E c o n o m i c C o m p l e x i t y

We compare the contribution to income of education, cognitive ability and economic complexity by regressing income against years of schooling, cognitive ability and the Economic Complexity Index. The contribution to income of each variable is estimated by taking the difference between the R2 obtained for the regression using all variables and that obtained for a regression where the variable in question was removed. Table 4.2.1 shows the results of this procedure for the year 2000, when cognitive ability data is available. Figure 4.7 in the main text summarizes the results. We compare the contribution to growth of education and economic complex-

ity by regressing growth against years of schooling secondary school enrollment, tertiary school enrollment, and the Economic Complexity Index. As additional controls we include the change in natural resource exports during the period, the logarithm of per capita income and year fixed effects. The contribution of each variable to growth is estimated by taking the difference between the R2 obtained for a regression using all variables and one obtained for a regression where the variable in question was removed. Table 4.2.2 shows the results of this procedure for ten year panels starting in 1978, 1988 and 1998. Figure 4.8 in the main text summarize the results.

TA B L E 4 . 2 . 1

Income per capita, log â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Year 2000 VARIABLES Economic Complexity Index

Years of schooling

Cognitive ability

Constant

Observations R

Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

0.998***

1.079***

1.042***

1.264***

(0.204)

(0.214)

(0.160)

(0.138)

0.134*

0.213**

0.14750**

(0.077)

(0.085)

(0.068)

0.118

0.875***

0.344

(0.263)

(0.290)

(0.249)

6.294***

2.861***

6.38972***

6.688***

7.826***

(0.917)

(0.995)

(0.977)

(0.562)

(0.183)

0.620

0.448

0.596

0.619

0.584

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 41

TA B L E 4 . 2 . 2

Annualized growth in GDP pc (by decade) (1978-1988, 1988-1998, 1998-2008) VARIABLES

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

-0.009***

-0.006***

-0.008***

-0.009***

-0.007***

(0.001)

Increase in natural resource exports

0.055***

0.049**

0.055***

0.061***

- in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP)

(0.018)

(0.021)

(0.018)

(0.017)

Initial Economic Complexity Index

0.044***

0.046***

0.044***

0.045***

0.052***

(0.011)

-0.004***

(0.001)

Initial Income per capita, log

Initial Economic Complexity Index X Income per capita, log

Years of schooling (standardized)

Secondary school enrollment (standardized)

Tertiary school enrollment (standardized)

Constant

Observations R2 Year FE Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

0.008*

0.013***

0.008***

0.005

(0.004)

(0.003)

0.000

0.001

0.005**

0.002

(0.003)

(0.002)

(0.003)

-0.003

-0.000

-0.003

(0.002)

(0.001)

(0.002)

0.097***

0.071***

0.091***

0.097***

0.099***

0.083***

(0.012)

(0.011)

(0.012)

(0.010)

263

0.409

0.288

0.401

0.409

0.406

0.383

Yes

42 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

TECHN I CAL B OX 4 . 3 : G l o b a l C o m p e t i t i v e n e s s I n d e x a n d G r o w t h

Here we compare the contribution of the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and the ECI to economic growth. We use the ranking of countries in the GCI and the ranking of countries in ECI to predict growth using 5 and 10 year panels. As controls, we use the increase in natural resource exports during the period as well as the logarithm of the initial GDP per capita and year fixed effects. We estimate the contribution of the GCI and ECI to growth by taking the difference

between the R2 obtained for the equation in which they were both included and that in which one or the other is missing. Table 4.3.1 shows that eliminating the rank of the ECI from the regression results in a much larger loss of explanatory power than removing the rank of GCI. This is true for both 5 and 10 year panels. Figure 4.9 on the main text illustrates these results.

T able 4 . 3 . 1

Annualized growth in GDP pc 5 year panels

VARIABLES

(1)

(2)

Ranking of GCI

-0.00007* (0.000)

Ranking of ECI

Initial income per capita, logs

10 year panels

(3)

(4)

(5)

-0.00004

-0.00023

-0.00005

(0.000)

(6)

-0.00009***

-0.00007***

-0.00064***

-0.00060***

(0.000)

-0.00231***

-0.00092***

-0.00180***

-0.01384***

-0.00439*

-0.01200***

(0.001)

(0.000)

(0.004)

(0.002)

(0.003)

Increase in natural resource exports

0.00709

0.00077

0.00578

0.09135*

0.04545

0.08814*

- in constant dollars (as a share of initial GDP)

(0.008)

(0.009)

(0.008) (0.048)

(0.049)

(0.045)

Constant

0.02744***

0.01181***

0.02059***

0.17473***

0.06694***

0.15084***

(0.006)

(0.003)

(0.004)

(0.044)

(0.025)

(0.030)

Observations

104

Adjusted R2

0.255

0.123

0.204

0.233

0.074

0.228

Yes

Year FE Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

SECTION 5 How Does Economic Complexity Evolve?

44 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

o economic complexity seems to matter: it affects a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s level of income per capita and drives its future growth. It is also distinct from what is captured by measures of human capital, governance and competitiveness. But how does complexity evolve? How do societies increase the amount of productive knowledge embedded in them? What limits the speed of this process? And why does it happen in some places but not in others? Again, in our interpretation, the complexity of a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy reflects the amount of productive knowledge it contains. This knowledge is costly to acquire and transfer, and is modularized into chunks we call capabilities. Capabilities are difficult to accumulate because doing so creates a complicated chicken and egg problem. On the one hand, countries cannot create products that require capabilities they do not have. On the other hand, there are scant incentives to accumulate capabilities in places where the industries that demand them do not exist. This is particularly true when the missing capabilities required by a potential new industry are many. In this case, supplying any single missing capability will not be enough to launch the new industry, given the absence of the other required capabilities. In a world in which capabilities are complementary, new capabilities risk not being demanded simply because other capabilities are not present. Consider the following example. A country that does not export fresh produce probably does not have either a coldstorage logistic chain, an expedited green lane at the customs service, or a food safety certification system. All are needed by potential produce exporters. Investors planning to provide the

capability to refrigerate and transport fresh produce would not get any traction because they would still need to certify their produce and get through customs fairly quickly. Yet, the systems that provide these services are not in place. It follows then that new capabilities will be more easily accumulated if they can be combined with others that already exist. This reduces the need to coordinate the accumulation of several new capabilities simultaneously. In our example, if only the green lane at the customs service was missing, it would be easier to develop the fresh produce export industry. For this reason, countries are more likely to move into products that make use of the capabilities that are already available. These capabilities are available, however, because they are being used to make other products. An implication of this is that a country will diversify by moving from the products they already produce to others that require a similar set of embedded knowledge. Arguably, it is easier to move from shirts to blouses than it is to move from shirts to engines. This is because, in terms of embedded knowledge, shirts are more similar to blouses than to engines. A testable implication of this logic is that countries will move into products that are similar, in terms of the capabilities they require, to the ones they already make. Measuring the similarity in the capability requirements of different products is not simple. Identifying the precise technical and institutional requirements of each product would involve collecting a mindboggling volume of information. Instead, here we measure similarity using a simple trick. If shirts require knowledge that is similar to that required by blouses, but different from that required by engines, then the probability that a country exporting shirts will also export blouses will be higher than the probability that it will

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 45

F igure 5 . 1 :

also export engines. So the probability that a pair of products is co-exported carries information about how similar these products are. We use this idea to measure the proximity between all pairs of products in our dataset (see Technical Box 5.1 on Measuring Proximity). The collection of all proximities is a network connecting pairs of products that are significantly likely to be co-exported by many countries. We refer to this network as the product space and use it to study the productive structure of countries. We care about the structure of the product space because it affects the ability of countries to move into new products. Products that are tightly connected share most of the req-

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

The product space.

uisite capabilities. If this is the case, then countries that already have what it takes to make one product will find it relatively easy to move to the next ones. A highly connected product space, therefore, makes the problem of growing the complexity of an economy easier. Conversely, a sparsely connected product space makes it harder. Once again, a metaphor may help to clarify these ideas. Imagine that the product space is a forest, where every product is a tree. Trees that require similar capabilities are near each other in the forest. Distant trees require very different capabilities. If countries are a collection of firms that make different products, we can think of firms as monkeys that live

46 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

F igure 5 . 2 : The product space revisited. The same as Figure 5.1 but with node sizes proportional to the Product Complexity Index (PCI).

on trees, meaning that they exploit certain products. Countries differ in the number and location of their monkeys in this common forest. The development process, which implies increasing product diversity and complexity, is akin to monkeys colonizing the forest, occupying more trees, and moving especially into the more complex or fruitier ones. When monkeys jump to nearby trees it minimizes the chicken and egg problem of having to accumulate several missing capabilities at once. Furthermore, if trees are densely packed together it will be relatively easy for monkeys to move from tree to tree and populate the forest. But if trees are far apart, monkeys may be stuck in their current activities. If the product space is heterogeneous, there may be some patches of highly related products, where adding capabilities and expanding into new products would be easier, and other patches of more loosely connected products that make the process of capability accumulation and diversification harder. What is the shape of the product space we live in? Is it a world in which the forest is dense or sparse? Figure 5.1 shows a visualization of the product space constructed using international trade data for the years 2006-2008. Here, nodes represent products and their size is proportional to total world trade in that good. Links connect products with a high probability of being co-exported (see Technical Box 5.2).

The visualization reveals that the product space is highly heterogeneous. Some sections of it are composed of densely connected groups of products whereas others tend to be more peripheral and sparse. The product space shows that many goods group naturally into highly connected communities. This suggests that products in these communities use a similar set of capabilities. We can identify communities because the products that belong to them are more closely connected to each other than to products outside of the community.Here, we use network science algorithms to discover the communities of products that are hidden in the data (see Technical Box 5.3 for a discussion of the method). We use these communities to make the discussion of products more tractable. The nearly 800 products in the SITC4 classification were grouped into 34 communities, which we identify by color in our visualization of the product space (Figure 5.1). The names, complexity, market size and other characteristics of the communities appear in Table 5.1. Figure 5.2 shows a visualization of the product space that is similar to Figure 5.1, but where the size of the nodes is proportional to the complexity of products they represent, as estimated by the Product Complexity Index (PCI). It shows that communities tend to have similar levels of complexity. Products in the Machinery, Electronics and Chemical com-

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 47

F igure 5 . 3 : Community characteristics. Average complexity of the products in each community as a function of its connectedness. Bubble size is proportional to the community’s participation in world trade.

Average Complexity

Percentage of World Trade in each community

22% of WT

-1

6% of WT 2% of WT

-2

0.8% of WT

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.06% of WT

0.25

munities tend to be much more complex than those in the garments cluster or in peripheral communities such as Oil and Tropical Agriculture. Figure 5.3 shows some of the network characteristics of these communities. Connectedness is a measure of how centrally located a community is in the product space. It is the average proximity of a community’s products to all other products, where proximity is the measure of distance between two products used to construct the product space. The figure shows the average connectedness of the products in each community and their average complexity estimated by PCI. The figure reveals a positive relationship between how centrally located the communities are in the product space and how complex their products are. Poorly connected communities such as petroleum, cotton, rice and soybeans tend to be low in complexity. Machinery, by contrast, is very complex and highly connected. Sectors such as garments, textiles and food processing are, on the other hand, in an intermediate position, being connected but not very sophisticated. Electronics and health-related chemicals, however, are also very complex but not as connected as machinery. This suggests they use specific capabilities relevant within their communities but not outside of them. Previous research has shown that the probability that a country will make a new product is strongly related to

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

Average Connectedness

how close that product is to other products the country already makes. So the location of a country in the product space captures information regarding both the productive knowledge that it possesses and the capacity to expand that knowledge by moving into other nearby products. The ability of countries to diversify and to move into more complex products is crucially dependent on their initial location in the product space. The product space gives us a glimpse of the embedded knowledge of countries by highlighting the productive capabilities they posses and the opportunities these imply.We can evaluate a country’s overall position in the product space by calculating how far it is to alternative products and how complex these products are. We call this measure opportunity value and it can be thought of as the value of the option to move into more and more complex products (see Technical Box 5.4). Figure 5.4 compares opportunity value with the Economic Complexity Index and income. It shows that countries with low levels of complexity tend to have few opportunities available. This is because the products they do create tend to be peripheral in the product space. Complex economies tend to have few remaining opportunities because they already occupy a large fraction of the better part of the product space. Countries with an intermediate level of complexity, on the other hand, differ largely in their opportunity value. Some

48 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

F igure 5 . 4 : Opportunity Value as a function of the Economic Complexity Index and GDP per capita.

IND

5 GRC BGR TUR LTU SRB EGY BRA LBN PRT EST LVA UKR CHN ESP VNM NLD ARG CAN BEL THA ROU HRV ZAF BIH BLR HUN GBR FIN TUN COL TZA POL MEX GTM KOR SGP PAN ISR NZL SVK KEN ALB JOR DNK HKG CHE MYS UGA SEN CRI URY SYR MDA PAK SVN KGZ SLV IRL RUS AUS LKA HND MAR DOM MKD NOR PER SWE MDG MUS NAM KAZ GEO NIC CHL PHL USA PRY ARE CIV GHA ETHUZB ZWE TTOJAM ITA DZA LBR LAO ECU SAU CZE BOL QAT NGA LBY MLI MOZ BGD AG0 MWI OMN CUB FRA ZMB GIN YEM GAB COG BWA TJK CMR TKM VEN KHM MRT SDN PNG AZEMNGIRN KWT AUT

Opportunity Value

IDN

-3

-2

-1

IND

GRC BGR

4 IDN SRB UKR

countries like Saudi Arabia, Jamaica and Chile, are located in parts of the product space that imply few opportunities. Others, like India, Greece, Turkey, Brazil and Indonesia are located in parts of the product space where opportunities are plentiful. Figure 5.4 also shows that countries with similar incomes face dramatically different opportunities. Finally, we illustrate how countries move through the product space by looking at Ghana, Poland, Thailand and Turkey (Figure 5.5). Here, square nodes with thick black outlines are used to indicate the products that each of these countries was exporting at each point in time. In all cases we see that new industries –new black squares– tend to lie close to the industries already present in these countries. The productive transformation undergone by Poland, Thailand and Turkey, however, look striking compared to that of Ghana. Thailand and Turkey, in particular, moved from mostly agricultural societies to manufacturing powerhouses during the 1975-2009 period. Poland, also “exploded” towards the center of the product space during the last two decades, becoming a manufacturer of most products in both the home and office and the processed foods community and significantly increasing its participation in the production of machinery. These transformations imply an increase in embedded knowledge that is reflected in our Economic Complexity Index. Ultimately, it is these transformations that underpinned the impressive growth performance of these countries. We started this section asking several questions: How does complexity evolve? And how do societies increase the

CHN

BRA LBN

LTU EST

PRT

LVA

VNM

JPN

Economic Complexity Index

EGY

CAN ESP NLD BEL THA ZAF ARG ROU BIH BLR HR FIN GBR POL MEX COL TZA KOR ISR SGP TUN ALB HUN KEN SVK DNK GTM JOR NZL PAN MYS CHE HKG CRI URY UGA SEN PAK SLV IRL SVN KGZ MDA SYR AUS RUS LKA MAR DOM MKD HND NOR PER JPN SWE MDG MUS NAM PHL KAZ NIC GEO CHL PRY ITA ARE USA ZWE CIV TTO GHA LAO UZB ETH JAM SAU QAT LBR ECU IRN CZE BOL MOZ BGD CUB OMN FRA MLI NGA AGO DZA GAB BWA VEN LBY TCD YEM MNG KWT MWI COG TKM ZMB GIN KHM CMR TJK AZE MRT SDN PNG AUT

TUR

102

103

104

105

GDP per capita [2008]

total amount of productive knowledge embedded in them? Here we have shown that countries expand their productive knowledge by moving into nearby goods. This increases the likelihood that the effort to accumulate any additional capability will be successful, as the complementary capabilities needed to make a new product are more likely to be present in the production of the nearby goods. What limits the speed of this process? Since capabilities are useful only when combined with others, the accumulation of capabilities is slowed down by the chicken and egg problem. New products may require capabilities that do not exist precisely because the other products that use them are not present. Moreover, since capabilities are chunks of tacit knowledge, accumulating them is difficult even when there is demand for them, because the country does not have any exemplars to copy. Most important, why does this process of development occur in some places, but not in others? There are many answers to this question. Our approach adds an alternative answer by showing that a country’s position in the product space determines its opportunities to expand its productive knowledge and increase its level of economic complexity. But the product space is highly heterogeneous, placing countries in radically different settings. Ultimately, development is the expression of the total amount of productive knowledge that is embedded in a society. But the process by which this knowledge is accumulated has a structure that we are only now starting to understand.

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 49

T able 5 . 1 : C h aracteristics o f P roduct C ommu n ities

Average PCI

Number of Products

World Trade

World Share

Top 3 Countries by Export Volume

Top 3 Countries by Number of Products (RCA>1)

Machinery

2.54

125

4.4T

20.29%

DEU, USA, JPN

DEU, ITA, AUT

Electronics

2.25

3.6T

16.71%

CHN, HKG, USA

CHN, HKG, MYS

Oil

-2.08

2.3T

10.49%

SAU, RUS, NOR

EGY, KAZ, DZA

Chemicals & Health

2.52

1.6T

7.47%

USA, DEU, BEL

USA, BEL, DEU

Other Chemicals

1.67

1.2T

5.49%

DEU, USA, FRA

DEU, ITA, ESP

Construction Materials & Equipment

0.77

1.1T

5.23%

CHN, DEU, ITA

CZE, POL, SVN

Mining

-0.59

1.1T

5.01%

AUS, USA, CHL

CAN, AUS, KAZ

Garments

-0.43

1.1T

4.63%

CHN, HKG, ITA

CHN, VNM, TUN

Food Processing

-0.07

603B

2.74%

DEU, ITA, USA

SRB, ESP, BEL

Metal Products

0.76

496B

2.26%

JPN, DEU, KOR

ZAF, UKR, SVK

Aircraft

1.48

440B

2.00%

FRA, DEU, GBR

CAN, GBR, FRA

Not Classified

0.93

426B

1.94%

USA, CHN, DEU

CHN, FRA, GBR

Cereals & Vegetable Oils

-0.34

295B

1.34%

USA, BRA, ARG

PRY, MDA, ARG

Home & Office

1.16

250B

1.14%

CHN, CHE, USA

CHN, PAN, PRT

Meat & Eggs

0.64

242B

1.10%

USA, BRA, DEU

FRA, BEL, POL

Ships

0.83

232B

1.05%

KOR, CHN, JPN

ROU, POL, HRV

Petrochemicals

1.22

220B

1.00%

DEU, USA, BEL

PRT, BEL, FRA

Boilers

1.56

193B

0.88%

CHN, DEU, JPN

CHN, TUR, KOR

Fish & Seafood

-1.23

191B

0.87%

CHN, NOR, THA

CHL, NAM, SYC

Textile & Fabrics

0.18

189B

0.86%

CHN, ITA, HKG

CHN, TUR, IND

Tropical Agriculture

-1.95

190B

0.86%

IDN, NLD, MYS

IDN, CIV, CRI

Coal

0.21

183B

0.83%

AUS, IDN, RUS

CZE, COL, RUS

Misc Agriculture

-0.79

170B

0.78%

BRA, DEU, FRA

ESP, TZA, NIC

Precious Stones

0.02

170B

0.77%

IND, ISR, BEL

GBR, LBN, LKA

Pulp & Paper

1.77

148B

0.67%

USA, CAN, SWE

SWE, FIN, CAN

Agrochemicals

0.40

141B

0.64%

DEU, USA, CAN

BEL, JOR, DEU

Milk & Cheese

1.14

134B

0.61%

DEU, FRA, NLD

NLD, BLR, LTU

Beer, Spirits & Cigarettes

0.07

124B

0.57%

GBR, NLD, DEU

JAM, BEL, NLD

Inorganic Salts & Acids

-0.22

117B

0.53%

USA, CHN, DEU

ISR, JOR, USA

Cotton, Rice, Soy & Others

-2.25

96B

0.44%

USA, IND, THA

TZA, MOZ, GRC

Tobacco

-1.46

64B

0.29%

DEU, NLD, BRA

PHL, GRC, SEN

Leather

-0.85

53B

0.24%

ITA, USA, HKG

ALB, SOM, ESP

Fruit

-0.58

45B

0.21%

ESP, USA, CHL

NLD, LBN, LTU

Animal Fibers

-0.85

12B

0.06%

AUS, CHN, ITA

URY, NZL, ZAF

Community Name

50 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

F igure 5 . 5 : The evolution of Ghana, Poland, Thailand and Turkey in the product space: 1975, 1990 and 2009. Black boxes indicate the products in which these countries had RCA>1.

1975 ELECTRONICS MACHINERY

GHANA

AIRCRAFT BOILERS SHIPS METAL PRODUCTS CONSTR. MATL. & EQPT. HOME & OFFICE PULP & PAPER CHEMICALS & HEALTH AGROCHEMICALS

POLAND

OTHER CHEMICALS INOR. SALTS & ACIDS PETROCHEMICALS LEATHER MILK & CHEESE ANIMAL FIBERS MEAT & EGGS FISH & SEAFOOD TROPICAL AGRIC. CEREALS & VEG. OILS

THAILAND

COTTON/RICE/SOY & OTHERS TOBACCO FRUIT MISC. AGRICULTURE NOT CLASSIFIED TEXTILE & FABRICS GARMENTS FOOD PROCESSING BEER/SPIRITS & CIGS. PRECIOUS STONES COAL OIL MINING

TURKEY

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 51

1990

2009

52 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

TECHN I CAL B OX 5 . 1 : M e a s u r i n g P r o x i m i t y To make products you need chunks of embedded knowledge which we call capabilities. The capabilities needed to produce one good may or may not be useful in the production of other goods. Since we do not observe capabilities directly, we create a measure that infers the similarity between the capabilities required by a pair of goods by looking at the probability that they are coexported. To quantify this similarity we assume that if two goods share most of the requisite capabilities, the countries that export one will also export the other. By the same token, goods that do not share many capabilities are less likely to be co-exported. Our measure is based on the conditional probability that a country that exports product will also export product (Figure 5.1.1). Since conditional probabilities are not symmetric we take the minimum of the probability of exporting product , given and the reverse, to make the measure symmetric and more

stringent. For instance, in the year 2008, 17 countries exported wine, 24 exported grapes and 11 exported both, all with RCA>1. Then, the proximity between wines and grapes is 11/24=0.46. Note that we divide by 24 instead of 17 to minimize false positives. Formally, for a pair of goods and we define proximity as:

Where =1 if country exports product with RCA>1 and 0 otherwise. the ubiquity of product .

F igure 5 . 1 . 1 : An illustrative example for the proximity measure.

X-RAY MACHINES

MEDICAMENTS

P=1

MEDICAMENTS

NETHERLANDS (NLD)

CHEESE

CREAMS AND POLISHES

FROZEN FISH

P = 1/2

P = 1/3

CHEESE

FROZEN FISH CREAMS AND POLISHES

ARGENTINA (ARG)

GHANA (GHA)

T e c h n i c a l B o x 5 . 2 : Vi s u a l i z i n g t h e P r o d u c t S p a c e To visualize the product space we use some simple design criteria. First, we want the visualization of the product space to be a connected network. By this, we mean avoiding islands of isolated products. The second criteria is that we want the network visualization to be relatively sparse. Trying to visualize too many links can create unnecessary visual complexity where the most relevant connections will be occluded. This criteria is achieved by creating a visualization in which the average number of links per node is not larger than 5 and results in a representation that can summarize the structure of the product space using the strongest 1% of the links. To make sure the visualization of the product space is connected, we calculate the maximum spanning tree (MST) of the proximity matrix. MST is the set of links that connects all the nodes in the network using a minimum number of connections and the maximum possible sum of proximities. We calculated the MST using Kruskalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s algorithm. Basically the algorithm sorts the values of the proximity matrix in descending order and then includes links in the MST if

and only if they connect an isolated product. By definition, the MST includes all products, but the number of links is the minimum possible. The second step is to add the strongest connections that were not selected for the MST. In this visualization we included the first 1,006 connections satisfying our criterion. By definition a spanning tree for 774 nodes contains 773 edges. With the additional 1,006 connections we end up with 1,779 edges and an average degree of nearly 4.6. After selecting the links using the above mentioned criteria we build a visualization using a Force-Directed layout algorithm. In this algorithm nodes repel each other, just like electric charges, while edges act as spring trying to bring connected nodes together. This helps to create a visualization in which densely connected sets of nodes are put together while nodes that are not connected are pushed apart. Finally, we manually clean up the layout to minimize edge crossings and provide the most clearly representation possible.

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 53

T e c h n i c a l B OX 5 . 3 : I d e n t i f y i n g P r o d u c t C o m m u n i t i e s

F igure 5 . 3 . 1 : Community quality for five different ways of grouping products.

2.0

1.0

1.36

1.39

Leamer

1.34

Lall

1.94

1.5

1.0+0.005

Communities

0.0

SITC-1

0.5

Random

Community Quality

In network science, groups of highly interconnected nodes are known as communities. In the Product Space, communities represent groups of products that are likely to require many of the same capabilities. We assign products to communities using the algorithm introduced by Rosvall and Bergstrom (2008). This algorithm finds communities using a two step process. First, it explores the network using a collection of random walkers. The intuition behind this first step is that nodes belonging to the same community are more likely to lie close by in the sequence of nodes visited by a random walker. For instance, take photographic film, photographic chemicals and silicones. These are three products that are interconnected and belong to a densely connected region of the product space. Hence, the random walker is much more likely to go through the sequences {silicones, photographic chemicals, photographic film} or {photographic film, silicones, photographic chemicals} than {photographic film, grapes, blouses}. The emergence of these sequences indicates that photographic film, photographic chemicals and silicones, probably belong to the same community. After several iterations of random walks have been recorded, the algorithm tries to compresses these sequences by looking for ways to rename nodes and minimize the amount of space required to store information about these sequences. For instance, if silicones, photographic films, and photographic chemicals are grouped into a community called photographic materials this would allow compressing the sequence by replacing each time it appears by a reference to that community. The algorithm looks for a compression that preserves as much information as possible. This avoids the trivial solution in which all products are assigned to the same community. The communities determined through this algorithm were manually named and merged into 34 communities (see Table 5.1 for details). We compare the ability of these communities to summarize the structure of the product space by introducing a measure of community quality. This is the ratio between the average proximity of the links within a community, and those connecting products from that community to products in other communities. To get a sense of the community quality we compare our assignment of products into communities with a baseline null model and three popular categorizations. The baseline null model is given by an ensemble of communities of the same size, where nodes have been assigned to each community at random. In this case, the average strength of the links within communities is equal to the average strength of links between communities, and the community quality is 1. The three categorizations we use as comparators are: the first digit of the Standard International Trade Classification, the categories introduced by Leamer (1984) -based on factor intensities- and the technology categories introduced by Lall (2000). All three classifications produce values of the community quality between 1.3 and 1.4, indicating that links within communities tend to be, on average, 30% to 40% stronger than those between communities. The communities we propose here have a community quality value of 1.94, indicating that the links between nodes in the same community are, on average, 94% stronger than those connecting nodes between communities (Figure 5.3.1). The difference in community quality of our proposed community system and that of the three alternative categorizations is highly statistically significant with a -value<1x10-30.

54 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

TECHN I CAL B OX 5 . 4 : U n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e P o s i t i o n o f C o u n t r i e s i n t h e P r o d u c t S p a c e : Di s t a n c e , O p p o r t u n i t y V a l u e a n d O p p o r t u n i t y G a i n

Empirically, we find that countries move through the product space by developing goods close to those they currently produce. But countries do not make just one product; they make a certain number. Proximity measures the similarity between a pair of products, so we need another measure to quantify the distance between the products that a country makes and each of the products that it does not. We call this measure distance and define it as the sum of the proximities connecting a new good p to all the products that country is not currently exporting. We normalize distance by dividing it by the sum of proximities between all products and product . In other words, distance is the weighted proportion of products connected to good p that country c is not exporting. The weights are given by proximities. If country exports most of the goods connected to product , then the distance will be short, close to 0. But, if country only exports a small proportion of the products that are related to product , then the distance will be large (close to 1). Formally,

Distance gives us an idea of how far each product is given a country’s current mix of exports. Yet, it would be useful to have a holistic measure of the opportunities implied by a country’s position in the product space. Countries that make products that are relatively complex, given their current level of income, tend to grow faster. Hence, it makes sense to include not only the distance to products, but also their complexity. Some countries may be located near few, poorly connected and relatively simple products, while others may have a rich unexploited neighborhood of highly connected or complex products. This means that countries differ not just in what they make but in what their opportunities

are. We can think of this as the value of the option to move into other products. Hence, to quantify the “opportunity value” of a country’s unexploited prospects we can add the level of complexity of the products that it is not currently weighted by how close these products are to the country’s current export suite. We can write this mathematically as:

Where PCI is the Product Complexity Index of product . The term makes sure that we count only the products that the country is not currently producing. Higher opportunity value implies being in the vicinity of more products and/or of products that are more complex. We can use opportunity value to calculate the potential benefit to a country if it were to move to a particular new product. We call this the “opportunity gain” that country c would obtain from making product . This is calculated as the change in opportunity value that would come as a consequence of developing product . Opportunity gain quantifies the contribution of a new product in terms of opening up the doors to more and more complex products. Formally, we can write the opportunity gain as:

How Can This Atlas Be Used?

SECTION 6

56 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

n recent years there has been an explosion in the use of indexes to rank countries, corporations, cities and other entities in terms of a myriad of indicators. We have the Human Development Index, put together by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the Freedom House’s Freedom Index, the World Bank’s Doing Business, Investment Climate Assessment and Governance indexes, the World Economic Forum’s Competitiveness, Gender Gap and Trade Facilitation indexes, the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), the credit ratings of governments and corporations put together by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, and the Quality of Development Assistance published by the Center for Global Development. The popularity and usefulness of these efforts reflect the fact that they provide feedback about the relative performance of an entity on dimensions that societies find important and that the publishers want to highlight. The indexes may help the rated entities to evolve towards better outcomes by benchmarking current performance, vis-a-vis the best achievers, and by encouraging learning through imitation and experimentation around best practices. Here it may be useful to distinguish between the two roles of any indicator. The first one is as a measure and the second one is as a guide to action. As a measure, the critical question is whether the index is able to adequately represent the information that one wants to capture, whether it is freedom, human development, solvency, business environment, governance, educational quality or, in our case, productive knowledge. As a guide to action the question is what inter-

ventions will lead an entity to improve its performance on the index. With respect to the latter question, indexes differ in how clearly they map to a plan of action. At one extreme, the World Bank’s Doing Business Index is based on the statutory requirements to perform certain functions such as registering and closing a business or obtaining a license. Here the course of action is clear: change the statutes in a direction that would improve the re-calculated index. However, in other cases, such as improving rule of law, educational quality, gender equality, the control of corruption or competitiveness, the mapping is not so clear. It is hard to know precisely which changes in current practice would be reflected in better performance. This is a general problem in many areas where the relationship between action and performance is complex. Should schools reduce class size, improve teacher training, increase nutritional assistance or implement standardized exams in order to improve educational quality? Should societies get more policemen, revamp the judicial system, encourage press freedom, revise their gun laws or confront organized crime in order to improve rule of law? The best humans have been able to do is to emulate some of the features of the best performers in the hopes that the elements that were selected for imitation may prove crucial to the achievement of better outcomes. If they do, this will hopefully be reflected in future measures of the index. If they do not, other actions will be tried until the action taken is consistently followed by a change in the desired direction. In our case, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) is based on the number and the complexity of the products that a country exports with comparative advantage. Empirically,

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 57

countries that do well in this index, given their income level, tend to achieve higher levels of economic growth. The ability to successfully export new products is a reflection of the fact that the country has acquired new productive knowledge that will then open up further opportunities for progress. What a country needs to do to achieve this will be highly specific to the context of the country and the product. Better seeds could cause an agricultural revolution; improved infrastructure could open up new possibilities for light manufactures; clarifying property rights and human subject regulations may allow for participation in pharmaceutical research; changing the responsiveness of training institutions to the needs of new sectors may unleash their growth; etc. The Economic Complexity Index is not easy to manipulate through a narrow set of decisions. Ultimately, countries improve on the index by being able to increase the number of different activities they can successfully engage in and by moving towards activities that are more complex. The policy message for most countries is clear: create an environment where a greater diversity of productive activities can thrive and, in particular, activities that are relatively more complex. Countries are more likely to succeed in this agenda if they focus on products that are close to their current set of productive capabilities, as this would facilitate the identification and provision of the missing capabilities. The ECI therefore, is accompanied by maps that help chart the opportunities and rewards available for each country. These are maps that are specific to each country and do not represent one-size-fits-all development advice. These maps, however, could also be used by firms search-

ing for a new location or looking to diversify into a new product. These maps carry information about the productive capabilities that are present in a given country and the degree to which these capabilities are relevant to support a particular new industry. A map does not tell people where to go, but it does help them determine their destination and chart their journey towards it. A map empowers by describing opportunities that would not be obvious in the absence of it. If the secret to development is the accumulation of productive knowledge, at a societal rather than individual level, then the process necessarily requires the involvement of many explorers, not just a few planners. This is why the maps we provide in this Atlas are intended for everyone to use.

Which Countries Are Included in This Atlas?

SEC T I O N 7

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 59

ountries are highly heterogeneous. When it comes to the size of their population, territory, income and economy, countries differ by orders of magnitude. When it comes to land, Russia is 1,000 times larger than Kuwait. When it comes to population, China is more than 600 times more populous than Slovenia. When it comes to Gross Domestic Product, the United States is more than 1,300 times larger than Namibia. All of these are countries that made it into this Atlas, illustrating the large cross section of the world captured in this book. Products also differ enormously in terms of their world market size. Depending on the year, crude oil represents five to ten percent of world trade while goat skins represent less than one part in one hundred thousand of world trade. To make countries and products comparable we control for the size of the country and of the product by calculating their Revealed Comparative Advantage (see Technical Box 2.2). This means that large and small countries and products with big and small markets count the same as far as our method is concerned. Moreover, the data of each country affects the calculations of all others so including data that is noisy or unreliable greatly affects the integrity of our calculations. Countries that are too small in terms of their export base, such as Tuvalu or Vanuatu, or with data that is highly unreliable or not adequately classified, do not provide us with a sufficiently broad sample to infer their structure. This is why we restrict the analysis to 128 countries, which account for 99% of world trade, 97% of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total GDP and 95% of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population. To generate this list we used a variety of criteria. First, we

limit ourselves only to the set of countries for which there is product-level trade data available in the UN COMTRADE and income data available for 2008. Second, we only use data on countries with a population above 1,200,000. Third, we only consider countries that exported at least 1 billion dollars per year, on average, between 2006 and 2008. Finally we remove from this sample Iraq, Macau and Chad, three countries with severe data quality issues (Figure 7.1).

F igure 7. 1 : Schematic of the procedure used to determine the countries that were included in the Atlas.

All countries with GDP and Export information

185 countries Population above 1,200,000

147 countries Trade above $1 Billion

131 countries Reliable Data (excluding Iraq, Chad and Macau)

128 countries

PA R T 2

COMPLEXITY RANKINGS

In this part we present five different rankings. These rankings sort countries according to: Ranking 1: Economic Complexity Index (ECI).

Ranking 2: Expected Growth in Per Capita GDP to 2020.

Ranking 3: Expected GDP Growth to 2020.

Ranking 4: Change in Economic Complexity (19642008).

Ranking 5: Expected Contribution to World GDP Growth to 2020.

Each of these five rankings captures a different aspect of the world economy. This is well illustrated by the five countries that make it to the top of each ranking. According to the aforementioned ranking order, these are: Japan, China, Uganda, Mauritius and The United States. The heterogeneity of this group shows the wide range of dimensions that are captured by these five different rankings (Table 1). Next, we comment each one of them briefly, and invite readers to explore them by themselves.

TABLE 1 Correlations between the five different rankings. The low correlations between the rankings indicate that these tend to capture different dimensions of the world economy.

R1: Economic Complexity R2: Per capita Growth Potential R3: Total Growth R4: Change in Complexity

R2: Per capita Growth Potential

R3: Total Growth

R4: Change in Complexity

R5: Contribution to World GDP

0.45

-0.22

0.17

0.58

0.54

0.57

0.09

0.54

-0.13 -0.09

RANKING 1:

Economic Complexity Index

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 63

ranking 1 shows the Economic Complexity ranking. Here

by region:

countries are sorted based on the amount of productive knowledge that is implied in their export structures (see Part 1, Section 2: How do we measure economic complexity?). The countries in the top ten of this ranking are Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, Finland, Singapore, Czech Republic, the UK and Slovenia. Immediately after the top 10 we have France, Korea and the US. Of the top 20 countries, half are in Western Europe, 3 are in East Asia, and surprisingly 4 are in Eastern Europe. Israel and Mexico close the list of the top 20. These are countries with productive structures that are able to hold vast amounts of productive knowledge, and that manufacture and export a large number of sophisticated goods. At the bottom of the economic complexity ranking we have Papua New Guinea, The Republic of Congo, Sudan, Angola and Mauritania. Figure 1 illustrates the relative levels of economic complexity of countries in Ranking 1 by plotting ECI as a function of a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current level of GDP per capita. In Map 1, countries are color coded according to their position in ranking 1. Interestingly the least complex countries in Western Europe are Portugal (35) and Greece (53), two countries whose high income cannot be explained by either their complexity or their natural resource wealth. We do not think that this is unrelated to their present difficulties: their current income has been propped up by massive capital inflows and, as these decline to more sustainable levels, the internal weaknesses come to the fore. The ECI, however, illustrates clearly how these mismatches can be identified from the data.

By region, the most complex economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary, while the worst performing ones are Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. In Latin America and the Caribbean the best performers are Mexico (ranked 20), Panama (30) and Costa Rica (49); Brazil ranks fourth (52 in the worldwide scale) followed by Colombia (54). The worst performers are Ecuador (93), Nicaragua (97), Bolivia (101) and Venezuela (111). In East Asia and the Pacific, the best performers are Japan (1), Singapore (7) and Korea (12), followed by Hong Kong (24), China (29) and Thailand (31). The worst performers are Lao (102), Mongolia (113) and Papua New Guinea (124). In South Asia, the best performing country is India (51) followed by Sri Lanka (71) and Pakistan (82). The list is closed by Bangladesh (103). Finally, In Sub-Saharan Africa the most complex economies are South Africa (55), Namibia (72), Kenya (73), Senegal (74) and Mauritius (77). The worst performers are Guinea (123), the Republic of Congo (125), Sudan (126), Angola (127) and Mauritania (128). We note that many African countries are not in the rank because they did not satisfy our data filtering criteria (see Part 1, Section 7: Which countries are in the Atlas?). In the Middle East and North Africa, the best performers are Israel (19), Lebanon (44), Jordan (45), Tunisia (47) and Egypt (53). The worst performers are Kuwait (116), Iran (118) and Libya (119), where the overwhelming presence of oil indicates a narrow base of productive knowledge.

64 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 1. ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX RANK ECI COMPLEXITY (2008)

REGIONAL ECI RANKING

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

ECI 2008

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

INCOME 2009 [USD]

REGION

1/16

JAPAN

JPN

2.316

39,738

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/16

GERMANY

DEU

1.985

40,670

WESTERN EUROPE

2/16

SWITZERLAND

CHE

1.935

63,629

WESTERN EUROPE

3/16

SWEDEN

SWE

1.859

43,654

WESTERN EUROPE

4/16

AUSTRIA

AUT

1.807

45,562

WESTERN EUROPE

5/16

FINLAND

FIN

1.715

44,581

WESTERN EUROPE

2/16

SINGAPORE

SGP

1.639

36,537

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/27

CZECH REPUBLIC

CZE

1.628

18,139

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

6/16

UNITED KINGDOM

GBR

1.558

35,165

WESTERN EUROPE

2/27

SLOVENIA

SVN

1.523

23,726

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

7/16

FRANCE

FRA

1.473

41,051

WESTERN EUROPE

3/16

KOREA, REP.

KOR

1.469

17,078

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/2

UNITED STATES

USA

1.447

45,989

NORTH AMERICA

3/27

HUNGARY

HUN

1.430

12,868

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

4/27

SLOVAK REPUBLIC

SVK

1.379

16,176

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/16

ITALY

ITA

1.308

35,084

WESTERN EUROPE

9/16

DENMARK

DNK

1.267

55,992

WESTERN EUROPE

10/16

IRELAND

IRL

1.231

51,049

WESTERN EUROPE

1/16

ISRAEL

ISR

1.164

26,256

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

1/21

MEXICO

MEX

1.145

8,143

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

5/27

BELARUS

BLR

1.116

5,075

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

11/16

BELGIUM

BEL

1.085

43,671

WESTERN EUROPE

12/16

NETHERLANDS

NLD

1.044

47,917

WESTERN EUROPE

4/16

HONG KONG SAR, CHINA

HKG

1.023

30,065

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

6/27

POLAND

POL

1.020

11,273

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

7/27

CROATIA

HRV

0.989

14,222

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/27

ROMANIA

ROU

0.936

7,500

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

13/16

SPAIN

ESP

0.933

31,774

WESTERN EUROPE

5/16

CHINA

CHN

0.894

3,744

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/21

PANAMA

PAN

0.831

7,155

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/16

THAILAND

THA

0.814

3,893

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

9/27

ESTONIA

EST

0.791

14,238

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

14/16

NORWAY

NOR

0.777

79,089

WESTERN EUROPE

7/16

MALAYSIA

MYS

0.759

7,030

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

15/16

PORTUGAL

PRT

0.696

21,903

WESTERN EUROPE

10/27

LITHUANIA

LTU

0.683

11,141

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

11/27

SERBIA

SRB

0.644

5,872

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

12/27

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

BIH

0.597

4,525

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

13/27

LATVIA

LVA

0.594

11,616

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

14/27

BULGARIA

BGR

0.587

6,423

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2/2

CANADA

CAN

0.571

39,599

NORTH AMERICA

15/27

UKRAINE

UKR

0.559

2,468

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

16/27

TURKEY

TUR

0.444

8,215

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 65

RANKING 1. ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX RANK ECI COMPLEXITY (2008)

REGIONAL ECI RANKING

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

ECI 2008

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

INCOME 2009 [USD]

REGION

2/16

LEBANON

LBN

0.403

8,175

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

3/16

JORDAN

JOR

0.325

4,216

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

17/27

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

RUS

0.324

8,684

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

4/16

TUNISIA

TUN

0.294

3,792

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

8/16

NEW ZEALAND

NZL

0.287

29,352

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

3/21

COSTA RICA

CRI

0.278

6,386

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

18/27

MOLDOVA

MDA

0.266

1,516

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

1/4

INDIA

IND

0.247

1,192

SOUTH ASIA

4/21

BRAZIL

BRA

0.244

8,230

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

16/16

GREECE

GRC

0.214

29,240

WESTERN EUROPE

5/21

COLOMBIA

COL

0.200

5,126

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

1/26

SOUTH AFRICA

ZAF

0.131

5,786

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

6/21

URUGUAY

URY

0.109

9,420

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

7/21

ARGENTINA

ARG

0.106

7,626

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

19/27

ALBANIA

ALB

0.087

3,808

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

9/16

PHILIPPINES

PHL

0.032

1,752

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

8/21

EL SALVADOR

SLV

0.026

3,424

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

10/16

INDONESIA

IDN

-0.007

2,349

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

20/27

MACEDONIA, FYR

MKD

-0.018

4,515

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

5/16

EGYPT, ARAB REP.

EGY

-0.021

2,270

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

9/21

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

DOM

-0.064

4,637

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

10/21

GUATEMALA

GTM

-0.099

2,661

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/16

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ARE

-0.106

50,070

11/16

VIETNAM

VNM

-0.181

105

1,113

7/16

SAUDI ARABIA

-0.201

14,799

21/27

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

KGZ

-0.240

114

860

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

22/27

GEORGIA

GEO

-0.263

2,449

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2/4

SRI LANKA

LKA

-0.265

2,068

SOUTH ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

2/26

NAMIBIA

NAM

-0.271

4,267

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

3/26

KENYA

KEN

-0.276

115

738

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/26

SENEGAL

SEN

-0.287

109

1,023

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

8/16

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

SYR

-0.290

2,474

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

11/21

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

TTO

-0.306

15,841

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

5/26

MAURITIUS

MUS

-0.307

6,735

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

12/21

CHILE

CHL

-0.312

9,644

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

12/16

AUSTRALIA

AUS

-0.321

42,279

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

6/26

ZIMBABWE

ZWE

-0.327

122

449

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

13/21

JAMAICA

JAM

-0.343

4,471

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/4

PAKISTAN

PAK

-0.398

111

955

SOUTH ASIA

9/16

MOROCCO

MAR

-0.400

2,811

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

14/21

CUBA

CUB

-0.426

5,596

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

10/16

QATAR

QAT

-0.438

69,754

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

15/21

PARAGUAY

PRY

-0.474

2,242

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

66 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 1. ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX RANK ECI COMPLEXITY (2008)

REGIONAL ECI RANKING

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

ECI 2008

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

INCOME 2009 [USD]

REGION

7/26

UGANDA

UGA

-0.488

121

490

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

16/21

HONDURAS

HND

-0.518

1,918

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

17/21

PERU

PER

-0.576

4,469

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

8/26

MADAGASCAR

MDG

-0.594

123

438

11/16

OMAN

OMN

-0.604

16,207

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

23/27

KAZAKHSTAN

KAZ

-0.608

7,257

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

18/21

ECUADOR

ECU

-0.619

4,202

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

9/26

BOTSWANA

BWA

-0.620

6,064

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

10/26

TANZANIA

TZA

-0.637

120

503

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

24/27

UZBEKISTAN

UZB

-0.658

101

1,156

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

19/21

NICARAGUA

NIC

-0.661

108

1,069

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

13/16

CAMBODIA

KHM

-0.702

117

706

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

11/26

CÃ&#x201D;TE D'IVOIRE

CIV

-0.868

106

1,106

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

100

12/26

GHANA

GHA

-0.868

107

1,098

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

101

20/21

BOLIVIA

BOL

-0.879

1,758

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

102

14/16

LAO PDR

LAO

-0.880

112

940

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

103

4/4

BANGLADESH

BGD

-0.887

119

551

SOUTH ASIA

104

13/26

ETHIOPIA

ETH

-0.892

126

344

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

105

14/26

ZAMBIA

ZMB

-0.933

110

990

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

106

15/26

MALAWI

MWI

-1.024

127

310

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

107

12/16

YEMEN, REP.

YEM

-1.042

104

1,118

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

108

25/27

TAJIKISTAN

TJK

-1.054

116

716

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

109

16/26

MOZAMBIQUE

MOZ

-1.077

124

428

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

110

17/26

MALI

MLI

-1.103

118

691

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

111

21/21

VENEZUELA, RB

VEN

-1.109

11,490

112

18/26

LIBERIA

LBR

-1.128

128

222

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

113

15/16

MONGOLIA

MNG

-1.166

1,573

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

114

13/16

ALGERIA

DZA

-1.213

4,029

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

115

26/27

TURKMENISTAN

TKM

-1.217

3,904

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

116

14/16

KUWAIT

KWT

-1.219

54,260

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

117

27/27

AZERBAIJAN

AZE

-1.223

4,899

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

118

15/16

IRAN, ISLAMIC REP.

IRN

-1.229

4,540

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

119

16/16

LIBYA

LBY

-1.304

9,714

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

120

19/26

GABON

GAB

-1.364

7,502

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

121

20/26

CAMEROON

CMR

-1.403

102

1,136

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

122

21/26

NIGERIA

NGA

-1.418

103

1,118

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

123

22/26

GUINEA

GIN

-1.444

125

407

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

124

16/16

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

PNG

-1.577

100

1,172

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

125

23/26

CONGO, REP.

COG

-1.707

2,601

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

126

24/26

SUDAN

SDN

-1.768

1,294

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

127

25/26

ANGOLA

AGO

-1.793

4,081

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

128

26/26

MAURITANIA

MRT

-1.907

113

919

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 67

map 1 : Countries are color coded according to their position in Ranking 1.

Rank 1

128

figure 1 : Illustrates the relative levels of economic complexity of countries in Ranking 1 by plotting ECI as a function of a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current level of GDP per capita.

2.5

JPN

2 CZE

Economic Complexity Index [2008]

1.5

HUN KOR SVK

1 UKR

0 -0.5 -1

LBR

-1.5 10

POL HRV

ROU PAN MYS

CHN THA

0.5

-2

MEX

BLR

BIH

LTU LVA

SRB BGR

EST

TUR LBN JOR RUS CRI MDA TUN BRA IND COL ZAF ARG URY ALB PHL IDN SLV MKD EGY DOM GTM VNM SAU KGZ SEN GEO LKA NAM KEN TTO MUS CHL SYR ZWE JAM PAK MAR CUB PRY UGA HND MDG PER KAZ OMN UZB ECU BWA TZA KHM NIC GHA BOL LAO CIV BGD ETH ZMB MWI YEM TJK MOZ VEN MLI DZA MNG TKM AZE IRN LBY GAB CMR GIN NGA PNG COG SDN AGO MRT

10 10 GDP per capita in USD [2009]

DEU CHE SWE AUT FIN SGP GBR SVN FRA USA ITA DNK IRL ISR BEL HKG NLD ESP NOR

PRT CAN NZL GRC ARE AUS

QAT

KWT

RANKING 2:

Expected Growth in Per Capita GDP to 2020

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 69

ranking 2 sorts countries according to their expected annual per capita growth. Here countries are sorted according to their per capita growth potential, which is estimated from the mismatch between a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current level of aggregate output (GDP per capita) and their level of economic complexity (see Part 1, Section 3: Why is complexity important?). China, India and Thailand are at the top of this ranking, since they are countries with economies that are remarkably complex, given their current level of income, and are expected to catch up faster than other developing nations. Next come Belarus, Moldova, Zimbabwe, Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina, five countries where the current level of income is dramatically lower than what one would expect given their productive capabilities. This ranking shows that the two regions of the world where the potential of per capita growth is higher are East Asia and Eastern Europe (Map 2). At the bottom of this ranking we have Sudan, Angola and Mauritania. These are developing countries where the complexity of their economies does not provide a basis for future economic growth, and, where changes in income are dominated by fluctuations in the price and volume of natural resource activities. Per capita growth potential as a function of GDP per capita is illustrated in Figure 2. The projection presented here is driven mainly by the gap between the initial level of complexity of an economy and its level of income. Countries whose income level is low relative to their complexity will grow faster. The opposite occurs for countries whose initial income is high, relative to their initial complexity. The projection requires an assumption about the evolution of natural resource exports. We assume that they will remain constant in real terms at the high level achieved in 2008. We believe this hypothesis is reasonable on average, as commodity prices were unusually high in 2008. To the extent that prices deviate from this assumption, so will growth. We do not include information regarding the changes in the

extraction volumes of natural resource in the different countries, so we will tend to underestimate growth in countries where natural resource production is expanding faster than population and overestimating it where it is falling.

by region: By region, the top performers in East Asia and the Pacific are China (1), Thailand (3), Philippines (11), Vietnam (12) and Malaysia (20), while the worst performance is expected in New Zealand (93), Mongolia (107), Australia (114), and Papua New Guinea (123). In South Asia, India is the regional leader (2), while Bangladesh is the laggard (65). In the Middle East and North Africa, the expected leaders in GDP per capita growth are Jordan (14), Egypt (18) and Tunisia (19), while the laggards are Libya (120), Qatar (122) and Kuwait (124), three oil exporters that are dragged down by their low complexity and by our assumption that oil exports per real terms will remain at 2008 levels. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the leaders in GDP per capita growth are expected to be Belarus (4), Moldova (5), Ukraine (7) and Bosnia (8). The laggards would be Kazakhstan (98), Turkmenistan (109) and Azerbaijan (112), three low-complexity oil exporters. To the extent that they will carry out their planned expansion in their oil exports, their growth performance will be better than we project. In Latin America the leaders are Panama (9), Mexico (10), El Salvador (31), Guatemala (35) and Colombia (36), while the laggards are expected to be Chile (86), Bolivia (89), Trinidad and Tobago (103) and Venezuela (115), four exporters of natural resources. Brazil ranks 8th in the region and 48th in the world in expected GDP per capita growth. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the growth leaders are expected to be Zimbabwe (6), Kenya (13), Uganda (24) and Senegal (25), while the laggards are expected to be Sudan (126), Angola (127) and Mauritania (128).

70 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 2. EXPECTED GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP TO 2020 RANK EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C

Regional Ranking EXP. Growth in GDP P/C

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

EXPECTED GROWTH IN GDP P/C 2009-2020

GROWTH IN GDP P/C 1999-2009

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

1/16

CHINA

CHN

4.32%

9.6%

3,744

5,962

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/4

INDIA

IND

4.26%

5.6%

1,192

1,886

SOUTH ASIA

2/16

THAILAND

THA

4.05%

3.1%

3,893

6,023

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/27

BELARUS

BLR

3.99%

7.9%

5,075

7,806

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2/27

MOLDOVA

MDA

3.95%

4.8%

1,516

2,321

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

1/26

ZIMBABWE

ZWE

3.79%

-6.2%

123

449

122

676

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

3/27

UKRAINE

UKR

3.73%

5.2%

2,468

3,694

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

4/27

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

BIH

3.59%

4.1%

4,525

6,669

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

1/21

PANAMA

PAN

3.58%

3.9%

7,155

10,529

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

2/21

MEXICO

MEX

3.50%

0.8%

8,143

11,894

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/16

PHILIPPINES

PHL

3.50%

2.6%

1,752

2,560

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

4/16

VIETNAM

VNM

3.48%

6.0%

105

1,113

1,622

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/26

KENYA

KEN

3.46%

0.9%

115

738

114

1,073

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/16

JORDAN

JOR

3.42%

3.7%

4,216

6,101

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

5/27

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

KGZ

3.41%

3.7%

114

860

111

1,244

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

6/27

ROMANIA

ROU

3.39%

4.9%

7,500

10,823

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

7/27

SERBIA

SRB

3.38%

3.9%

5,872

8,467

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2/16

EGYPT, ARAB REP.

EGY

3.37%

2.9%

2,270

3,268

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

INCOME 2009 RANK [USD] INCOME 2020

EXPECTED INCOME REGION 2020 [USD]

3/16

TUNISIA

TUN

3.36%

3.6%

3,792

5,456

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

5/16

MALAYSIA

MYS

3.32%

2.8%

7,030

10,071

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

6/16

INDONESIA

IDN

3.32%

3.8%

2,349

3,363

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

8/27

HUNGARY

HUN

3.31%

2.9%

12,868

18,420

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

9/27

BULGARIA

BGR

3.30%

5.5%

6,423

9,178

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

3/26

UGANDA

UGA

3.29%

3.7%

122

490

120

700

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/26

SENEGAL

SEN

3.27%

1.3%

109

1,023

101

1,457

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

10/27

CZECH REPUBLIC

CZE

3.11%

3.1%

18,139

25,415

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2/4

PAKISTAN

PAK

3.11%

2.2%

111

955

107

1,336

SOUTH ASIA

7/16

KOREA, REP.

KOR

3.09%

3.9%

17,078

23.866

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

11/27

SLOVAK REPUBLIC

SVK

3.08%

4.4%

16,176

22,579

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

12/27

POLAND

POL

3.07%

4.1%

11,273

15,727

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

3/21

EL SALVADOR

SLV

3.06%

1.7%

3,424

4,770

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

13/27

ALBANIA

ALB

3.05%

5.2%

3,808

5,302

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

4/16

LEBANON

LBN

3.05%

3.3%

8,175

11,373

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

5/26

MADAGASCAR

MDG

3.03%

0.2%

124

438

123

608

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/21

GUATEMALA

GTM

3.02%

0.9%

2,661

3,693

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

5/21

COLOMBIA

COL

3.02%

2.4%

5,126

7,107

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/4

SRI LANKA

LKA

2.97%

4.1%

2,068

2,852

SOUTH ASIA

6/21

COSTA RICA

CRI

2.97%

2.1%

6,386

8,807

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/26

TANZANIA

TZA

2.93%

3.9%

121

503

121

691

14/27

CROATIA

HRV

2.92%

3.5%

14,222

19,528

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

7/26

SOUTH AFRICA

ZAF

2.90%

2.2%

5,786

7,920

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

15/27

MACEDONIA, FYR

MKD

2.84%

2.3%

4,515

6,141

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

16/27

TURKEY

TUR

2.83%

2.3%

8,215

11,168

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 71

RANKING 2. EXPECTED GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP TO 2020 RANK EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C

Regional Ranking EXP. Growth in GDP P/C

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

EXPECTED GROWTH IN GDP P/C 2009-2020

GROWTH IN GDP P/C 1999-2009

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

5/16

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

SYR

2.78%

1.4%

2,474

3,346

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

7/21

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

DOM

2.78%

3.5%

4,637

6,272

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

17/27

GEORGIA

GEO

2.77%

6.2%

2,449

3,308

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

18/27

LITHUANIA

LTU

2.76%

5.1%

11,141

15,034

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/21

BRAZIL

BRA

2.73%

2.0%

8,230

11,067

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

19/27

SLOVENIA

SVN

2.72%

2.7%

23,726

31,881

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/16

JAPAN

JPN

2.71%

0.6%

39,738

53,304

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

9/16

CAMBODIA

KHM

2.66%

6.3%

117

706

116

942

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

20/27

ESTONIA

EST

2.65%

5.0%

14,238

18,984

21/27

LATVIA

LVA

2.63%

5.0%

11,616

15,454

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

9/21

ARGENTINA

ARG

2.61%

2.3%

7,626

10,130

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

22/27

UZBEKISTAN

UZB

2.61%

5.1%

101

1,156

100

1,534

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

6/16

MOROCCO

MAR

2.60%

3.5%

2,811

3,727

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

10/21

NICARAGUA

NIC

2.60%

1.5%

108

1,069

102

1,417

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

11/21

HONDURAS

HND

2.59%

2.3%

1,918

2,540

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

23/27

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

RUS

2.58%

5.7%

8,684

11,491

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/26

NAMIBIA

NAM

2.56%

2.7%

4,267

5,637

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

12/21

URUGUAY

URY

2.53%

2.0%

9,420

12,399

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

INCOME 2009 RANK [USD] INCOME 2020

EXPECTED INCOME REGION 2020 [USD]

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

9/26

ETHIOPIA

ETH

2.53%

5.2%

127

344

126

453

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

13/21

PARAGUAY

PRY

2.50%

0.3%

2,242

2,941

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

7/16

ISRAEL

ISR

2.46%

1.6%

26,256

34,309

4/4

BANGLADESH

BGD

2.40%

4.1%

120

551

119

715

14/21

JAMAICA

JAM

2.35%

0.6%

4,471

5,773

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

1/16

GERMANY

DEU

2.34%

0.8%

40,670

52,428

WESTERN EUROPE

10/16

SINGAPORE

SGP

2.30%

3.1%

36,537

46,943

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/16

PORTUGAL

PRT

2.30%

0.5%

21,903

28,136

WESTERN EUROPE

10/26

MALAWI

MWI

2.27%

1.1%

128

310

127

396

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

11/16

HONG KONG SAR, CHINA

HKG

2.26%

3.5%

30,065

38,450

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

12/16

LAO PDR

LAO

2.24%

4.8%

112

940

113

1,199

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

11/26

MAURITIUS

MUS

2.22%

3.2%

6,735

8,578

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

15/21

CUBA

CUB

2.22%

5.9%

5,596

7,126

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/16

ITALY

ITA

2.18%

-0.1%

35,084

44,497

WESTERN EUROPE

12/26

CÃ&#x201D;TE D'IVOIRE

CIV

2.18%

-1.8%

106

1,106

103

1,402

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/16

UNITED KINGDOM

GBR

2.16%

1.2%

35,165

44,505

WESTERN EUROPE

13/26

GHANA

GHA

2.16%

3.1%

107

1,098

104

1,388

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

16/21

PERU

PER

2.13%

3.7%

4,469

5,635

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

17/21

ECUADOR

ECU

2.12%

3.3%

4,202

5,290

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

5/16

AUSTRIA

AUT

2.10%

1.3%

45,562

57,271

WESTERN EUROPE

6/16

FRANCE

FRA

2.09%

0.7%

41,051

51,566

WESTERN EUROPE

7/16

SPAIN

ESP

2.08%

1.2%

31,774

39,863

WESTERN EUROPE

14/26

LIBERIA

LBR

2.07%

-1.3%

129

222

128

278

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

15/26

ZAMBIA

ZMB

2.06%

2.7%

110

990

112

1,239

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

18/21

CHILE

CHL

2.05%

2.6%

9,644

12,054

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

72 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

RANKING 2. EXPECTED GROWTH IN PER CAPITA GDP TO 2020 RANK EXP. GROWTH IN GDP P/C

Regional Ranking EXP. Growth in GDP P/C

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

EXPECTED GROWTH IN GDP P/C 2009-2020

GROWTH IN GDP P/C 1999-2009

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

8/16

SWEDEN

SWE

2.04%

1.5%

43,654

54,522

WESTERN EUROPE

9/16

FINLAND

FIN

2.03%

1.7%

44,581

55,630

WESTERN EUROPE

19/21

BOLIVIA

BOL

2.03%

1.7%

1,758

2,194

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

16/26

MOZAMBIQUE

MOZ

2.03%

4.6%

125

428

124

533

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/2

UNITED STATES

USA

2.01%

0.8%

45,989

57,260

24/27

TAJIKISTAN

TJK

1.95%

6.7%

116

716

117

885

13/16

NEW ZEALAND

NZL

1.91%

1.2%

29,352

36,132

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

17/26

BOTSWANA

BWA

1.89%

3.5%

6,064

7,449

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

18/26

MALI

MLI

1.87%

2.9%

118

691

118

848

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

INCOME 2009 RANK [USD] INCOME 2020

EXPECTED INCOME REGION 2020 [USD]

NORTH AMERICA EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/16

YEMEN, REP.

YEM

1.86%

1.0%

104

1,118

106

1,369

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

10/16

BELGIUM

BEL

1.86%

1.0%

43,671

53,457

WESTERN EUROPE

25/27

KAZAKHSTAN

KAZ

1.82%

7.9%

7,257

8,853

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

9/16

SAUDI ARABIA

1.80%

1.0%

14,799

18,011

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

100

11/16

SWITZERLAND

CHE

1.78%

0.9%

63,629

77,233

WESTERN EUROPE

101

12/16

GREECE

GRC

1.77%

3.0%

29,240

35,476

WESTERN EUROPE

102

13/16

NETHERLANDS

NLD

1.72%

1.1%

47,917

57,784

WESTERN EUROPE

103

20/21

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

TTO

1.71%

5.9%

15,841

19,097

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

104

2/2

CANADA

CAN

1.67%

1.1%

39,599

47,520

NORTH AMERICA

105

14/16

IRELAND

IRL

1.65%

1.9%

51,049

61,138

WESTERN EUROPE

106

15/16

DENMARK

DNK

1.63%

0.5%

55,992

66,902

WESTERN EUROPE

107

14/16

MONGOLIA

MNG

1.52%

4.5%

1,573

1,858

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

108

10/16

OMAN

OMN

1.44%

2.8%

16,207

18,971

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

109

26/27

TURKMENISTAN

TKM

1.34%

12.7%

3,904

4,521

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

110

11/16

ALGERIA

DZA

1.28%

2.1%

4,029

4,632

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

111

12/16

IRAN, ISLAMIC REP.

IRN

1.27%

3.5%

4,540

5,214

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

112

27/27

AZERBAIJAN

AZE

1.25%

14.5%

4,899

5,617

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

113

19/26

GUINEA

GIN

1.24%

0.7%

126

407

125

467

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

114

15/16

AUSTRALIA

AUS

1.23%

1.7%

42,279

48,355

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

115

21/21

VENEZUELA, RB

VEN

1.23%

1.8%

11,490

13,138

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

116

13/16

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ARE

1.21%

1.6%

50,070

57,151

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

117

20/26

CAMEROON

CMR

1.20%

1.1%

102

1,136

108

1,296

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

118

21/26

NIGERIA

NGA

1.16%

3.5%

103

1,118

110

1,270

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

119

16/16

NORWAY

NOR

1.08%

1.1%

79,089

88,980

WESTERN EUROPE

120

14/16

LIBYA

LBY

0.99%

2.1%

9,714

10,828

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

121

22/26

GABON

GAB

0.99%

-0.6%

7,502

8,362

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

122

15/16

QATAR

QAT

0.90%

69,754

77,008

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

123

16/16

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

PNG

0.89%

0.1%

100

1,172

109

1,292

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

124

16/16

KUWAIT

KWT

0.82%

2.6%

54.260

59,391

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

125

23/26

CONGO, REP.

COG

0.65%

2.3%

2,601

2,794

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

126

24/26

SUDAN

SDN

0.55%

4.8%

1,294

105

1,374

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

127

25/26

ANGOLA

AGO

0.54%

7.5%

4,081

4,329

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

128

26/26

MAURITANIA

MRT

0.29%

1.0%

113

919

115

949

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 73

map 2 : Countries are color coded according to their position in Ranking 2.

Rank 1

128

figure 2 : Expected annual GDP per capita growth with respect to GDP per capita in 2009.

CHN

IND

THA

MDA ZWE

UKR

Expected average annual GDP per capita growth [2009-2020]

KEN UGA

KGZ

VNM

KHM ETH

LKA GTM SYR GEO

UZB NIC

HND

PRY

SLV ALB

MAR

PER ECU

BOL

CZE KOR SVK HRV

TUR BRA LTU EST ARG RUS LVA URY

SVN

TKM

DZA

CMR NGA

SAU TTO

DEU SGP HKG ITA GBR AUT ESP FRA SWE FIN USA NZL BEL CHE GRC CAN NLD IRL DNK

OMN IRN AZE

VEN

AUS ARE NOR

GAB LBY

PNG SDN

KAZ

JPN

ISR PRT

CHL BWA

MNG

POL

LBN

CUB MUS

YEM

GIN

HUN

JAM

CIV GHA ZMB

TJK MLI

COL CRI ZAF MKD DOM

NAM

LAO MOZ

PAN MEX SRB ROU MYS BGR

JOR TUN

EGY IDN

SEN

BGD MWI

BIH

PHL

PAK

MDG TZA

LBR

BLR

KWT

QAT

COG AGO

MRT

10 2

10 3 104 GDP per capita in USD [2009]

10 5

RANKING 3:

Expected GDP Growth to 2020

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 75

ranking 3 shows the ranking for total GDP growth. This ranking is dominated by Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. The three East African nations have a level of complexity that is higher than would be expected given their very low level of income, and occupy the positions 24, 13 and 39 of the rankings of growth in GDP per capita. However, they reach top of the total GDP growth because of their expected levels of high population growth (we use forecast of population growth rates to the year 2020 performed by United Nations1). With the exception of India and Guatemala, 8 out of the 10 countries at the top of Ranking 3 are from Africa. Also, the ranking shows that we expect Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total GDP growth to top Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s. Map 3 shows the geographic pattern of total GDP growth, and Figure 3 plots total GDP growth as a function of GDP per capita.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011)

by region: By region, in East Asia and the Pacific the expected leaders in GDP growth are Philippines (12), Malaysia (15) and China (20), while laggard is Australia (107). In South Asia the best performing country is expected to be India (8), while Bangladesh is the laggard (51). In Eastern Europe and Central Asia the top performers are the Kyrgyz Republic (21), Turkey (40) and Uzbekistan (43). The worst performers in this region are Latvia (114) and Georgia (121). In Latin America the fastest growing countries are expected to be Guatemala (9), Panama (13) and Mexico (22), while the worst performance is expected in Trinidad and Tobago (119) and Cuba (128). Jordan (11), Egypt (14) and Yemen (16) are expected to lead GDP growth in Middle East and North Africa, while the laggards are Iran (117) and Libya (123). GDP growth in Western Europe is expected to be lead by The United Kingdom (92), followed closely by Ireland (93). At the bottom of the list we expect to find Greece (126) and Norway (128).

76 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

R A N K I N G 3 . expected gdp growth to 2 0 2 0 RANK EXPECTED GDP GROWTH

REGIONAL RANK COUNTRY NAME EXPECTED GDP GROWTH

ISO CODE

EXPECTED GDP GROWTH GROWTH 1998-2008 2009-2020

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

INCOME 2009 [USD]

RANK INCOME 2020

EXPECTED INCOME 2020 [USD]

EXPECTED POPULATION REGION GROWTH

1/26

UGANDA

UGA

6.41%

4.1%

122

490

120

700

3.11%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2/26

KENYA

KEN

6.10%

0.9%

115

738

114

1,073

2.64%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

3/26

TANZANIA

TZA

6.07%

3.8%

121

503

121

691

3.14%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/26

ZIMBABWE

ZWE

5.93%

-7.1%

123

449

122

676

2.14%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

5/26

MADAGASCAR

MDG

5.85%

1.0%

124

438

123

608

2.82%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

6/26

SENEGAL

SEN

5.82%

1.6%

109

1,023

101

1,457

2.55%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

7/26

MALAWI

MWI

5.60%

0.6%

128

310

127

396

3.33%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/4

INDIA

IND

5.51%

5.4%

1,192

1,886

1.25%

SOUTH ASIA

1/21

GUATEMALA

GTM

5.50%

1.2%

2,661

3,693

2.48%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

8/26

ZAMBIA

ZMB

5.25%

2.3%

110

990

112

1,239

3.19%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/16

JORDAN

JOR

5.18%

3.9%

4,216

6,101

1.76%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

1/16

PHILIPPINES

PHL

5.14%

2.8%

1,752

2,560

1.64%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/21

PANAMA

PAN

4.97%

4.0%

7,155

10,529

1.39%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

2/16

EGYPT, ARAB REP.

EGY

4.94%

3.1%

2,270

3,268

1.57%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

2/16

MALAYSIA

MYS

4.83%

3.5%

7,030

10,071

1.51%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

3/16

YEMEN, REP.

YEM

4.83%

0.9%

104

1,118

106

1,369

2.97%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

9/26

MALI

MLI

4.81%

3.2%

118

691

118

848

2.94%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2/4

PAKISTAN

PAK

4.80%

2.2%

111

955

107

1,336

1.69%

SOUTH ASIA

10/26

LIBERIA

LBR

4.67%

-0.1%

129

222

128

278

2.61%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

3/16

CHINA

CHN

4.66%

9.4%

3,744

5,962

0.34%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/27

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

KGZ

4.61%

3.8%

114

860

111

1,244

1.20%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

3/21

MEXICO

MEX

4.56%

1.8%

8,143

11,894

1.05%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

11/26

ETHIOPIA

ETH

4.52%

4.8%

127

344

126

453

1.99%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/21

HONDURAS

HND

4.49%

2.3%

1,918

2,540

1.90%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

4/16

THAILAND

THA

4.47%

3.8%

3,893

6,023

0.42%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

4/16

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

SYR

4.45%

0.7%

2,474

3,346

1.67%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

5/16

VIETNAM

VNM

4.41%

5.9%

105

1,113

1,622

0.93%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

12/26

CÃ&#x201D;TE D'IVOIRE

CIV

4.37%

-2.0%

106

1,106

103

1,402

2.19%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

13/26

GHANA

GHA

4.36%

3.1%

107

1,098

104

1,388

2.20%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

5/16

TUNISIA

TUN

4.31%

3.9%

3,792

5,456

0.95%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

14/26

MOZAMBIQUE

MOZ

4.26%

4.7%

125

428

124

533

2.23%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

6/16

INDONESIA

IDN

4.22%

3.4%

2,349

3,363

0.91%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

5/21

COLOMBIA

COL

4.22%

1.8%

5,126

7,107

1.20%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/21

COSTA RICA

CRI

4.21%

3.0%

6,386

8,807

1.24%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

15/26

NAMIBIA

NAM

4.15%

2.7%

4,267

5,637

1.59%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

7/21

PARAGUAY

PRY

4.15%

0.5%

2,242

2,941

1.65%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/16

ISRAEL

ISR

4.03%

1.8%

26,256

34,309

1.57%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

8/21

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

DOM

3.93%

3.8%

4,637

6,272

1.14%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

9/21

NICARAGUA

NIC

3.92%

2.7%

108

1,069

102

1,417

1.33%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

2/27

TURKEY

TUR

3.88%

2.4%

8,215

11,168

1.05%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

7/16

CAMBODIA

KHM

3.84%

7.6%

117

706

116

942

1.18%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

7/16

SAUDI ARABIA

3.82%

0.9%

14,799

18,011

2.02%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

3/27

UZBEKISTAN

UZB

3.76%

4.7%

101

1,156

100

1,534

1.15%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 77

R A N K I N G 3 . expected gdp growth to 2 0 2 0 RANK EXPECTED GDP GROWTH

REGIONAL RANK COUNTRY NAME EXPECTED GDP GROWTH

ISO CODE

EXPECTED GDP GROWTH GROWTH 1998-2008 2009-2020

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

INCOME 2009 [USD]

RANK INCOME 2020

EXPECTED INCOME 2020 [USD]

EXPECTED POPULATION REGION GROWTH

16/26

GUINEA

GIN

3.73%

1.3%

126

407

125

467

2.49%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

17/26

NIGERIA

NGA

3.72%

3.1%

103

1,118

110

1,270

2.55%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

10/21

EL SALVADOR

SLV

3.71%

2.4%

3,424

4,770

0.65%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

8/16

LEBANON

LBN

3.71%

2.3%

8,175

11,373

0.66%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

4/27

BELARUS

BLR

3.66%

8.1%

5,075

7,806

-0.33%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

3/4

SRI LANKA

LKA

3.66%

4.1%

2,068

2,852

0.69%

SOUTH ASIA

11/21

BOLIVIA

BOL

3.59%

1.4%

1,758

2,194

1.56%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

4/4

BANGLADESH

BGD

3.59%

4.0%

120

551

119

715

1.18%

SOUTH ASIA

9/16

MOROCCO

MAR

3.53%

3.0%

2,811

3,727

0.94%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

8/16

LAO PDR

LAO

3.52%

4.9%

112

940

113

1,199

1.28%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

12/21

BRAZIL

BRA

3.50%

2.1%

8,230

11,067

0.77%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

13/21

ARGENTINA

ARG

3.44%

1.9%

7,626

10,130

0.82%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

9/16

KOREA, REP.

KOR

3.42%

4.8%

17,078

23,866

0.33%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

5/27

TAJIKISTAN

TJK

3.42%

6.8%

116

716

117

885

1.47%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

18/26

SOUTH AFRICA

ZAF

3.37%

2.5%

5,786

7,920

0.48%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

14/21

ECUADOR

ECU

3.35%

2.6%

4,202

5,290

1.24%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/27

CZECH REPUBLIC

CZE

3.35%

3.8%

18,139

25,415

0.23%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

7/27

ALBANIA

ALB

3.33%

6.0%

3,808

5,302

0.28%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/27

MOLDOVA

MDA

3.33%

5.2%

1,516

2,321

-0.62%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

19/26

CAMEROON

CMR

3.30%

1.3%

102

1,136

108

1,296

2.10%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

9/27

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

BIH

3.28%

5.0%

4,525

6,669

-0.30%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

10/16

HONG KONG SAR, CHINA

HKG

3.28%

4.0%

30,065

38,450

1.02%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

11/16

SINGAPORE

SGP

3.27%

4.1%

36,537

46,943

0.96%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

10/27

SERBIA

SRB

3.24%

3.9%

5,872

8,467

-0.14%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

15/21

PERU

PER

3.23%

3.7%

4,469

5,635

1.10%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

11/27

SLOVAK REPUBLIC

SVK

3.23%

5.0%

16,176

22,579

0.15%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

10/16

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ARE

3.23%

1.7%

50,070

57,151

2.02%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

12/27

UKRAINE

UKR

3.19%

7.0%

2,468

3,694

-0.54%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

20/26

ANGOLA

AGO

3.19%

7.8%

4,081

4,329

2.65%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

11/16

QATAR

QAT

3.16%

69,754

77,008

2.26%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

13/27

HUNGARY

HUN

3.15%

4.0%

12,868

18,420

-0.16%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

14/27

ROMANIA

ROU

3.15%

5.7%

7,500

10,823

-0.24%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

12/16

OMAN

OMN

3.13%

2.8%

16,207

18,971

1.69%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

15/27

POLAND

POL

3.10%

4.4%

11,273

15,727

0.03%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

12/16

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

PNG

3.01%

-0.2%

100

1,172

109

1,292

2.13%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

13/16

KUWAIT

KWT

3.00%

2.6%

54,260

59,391

2.17%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

13/16

MONGOLIA

MNG

2.99%

5.0%

1,573

1,858

1.46%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

14/16

NEW ZEALAND

NZL

2.91%

1.8%

29,352

36,132

1.00%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

21/26

GABON

GAB

2.90%

-1.5%

7,502

8,362

1.91%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

16/27

SLOVENIA

SVN

2.90%

4.2%

23,726

31,881

0.18%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

16/21

URUGUAY

URY

2.90%

1.5%

9,420

12,399

0.37%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

22/26

SUDAN

SDN

2.89%

4.7%

1,294

105

1,374

2.35%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

17/27

MACEDONIA, FYR

MKD

2.89%

2.8%

4,515

6,141

0.06%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

78 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

R A N K I N G 3 . expected gdp growth to 2 0 2 0 RANK EXPECTED GDP GROWTH

REGIONAL RANK COUNTRY NAME EXPECTED GDP GROWTH

17/21

1/2

ISO CODE

EXPECTED GDP GROWTH GROWTH 1998-2008 2009-2020

RANK INCOME 2009 [USD]

INCOME 2009 [USD]

RANK INCOME 2020

EXPECTED INCOME 2020 [USD]

EXPECTED POPULATION REGION GROWTH

CHILE

CHL

2.85%

2.6%

9,644

12,054

0.80%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

UNITED STATES

USA

2.84%

1.6%

45,989

57,260

0.83%

NORTH AMERICA

23/26

BOTSWANA

BWA

2.84%

3.5%

6,064

7,449

0.95%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

18/27

KAZAKHSTAN

KAZ

2.81%

8.3%

7,257

8,853

0.99%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

24/26

CONGO, REP.

COG

2.80%

1.3%

2,601

2,794

2.15%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/16

UNITED KINGDOM

GBR

2.76%

2.1%

35,165

44,505

0.59%

WESTERN EUROPE

2/16

IRELAND

IRL

2.71%

3.7%

51,049

61,138

1.06%

WESTERN EUROPE

19/27

CROATIA

HRV

2.71%

3.9%

14,222

19,528

-0.21%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

25/26

MAURITIUS

MUS

2.69%

3.2%

6,735

8,578

0.47%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

18/21

JAMAICA

JAM

2.66%

1.0%

4,471

5,773

0.31%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

19/21

VENEZUELA, RB

VEN

2.64%

1.4%

11,490

13,138

1.41%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/16

SPAIN

ESP

2.63%

2.0%

31,774

39,863

0.55%

WESTERN EUROPE

20/27

BULGARIA

BGR

2.62%

6.3%

6,423

9,178

-0.68%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

100

4/16

SWEDEN

SWE

2.61%

2.5%

43,654

54,522

0.57%

WESTERN EUROPE

101

5/16

FRANCE

FRA

2.58%

1.4%

41,051

51,566

0.48%

WESTERN EUROPE

102

15/16

JAPAN

JPN

2.57%

1.1%

39,738

53,304

-0.14%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

103

2/2

CANADA

CAN

2.56%

1.9%

39,599

47,520

0.89%

NORTH AMERICA

104

21/27

ESTONIA

EST

2.56%

6.6%

14,238

18,984

-0.09%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

105

22/27

TURKMENISTAN

TKM

2.53%

13.6%

3,904

4,521

1.19%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

106

14/16

ALGERIA

DZA

2.53%

2.2%

4,029

4,632

1.26%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

107

16/16

AUSTRALIA

AUS

2.49%

2.2%

42,279

48,355

1.26%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

108

26/26

MAURITANIA

MRT

2.48%

1.7%

113

919

115

949

2.19%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

109

23/27

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

RUS

2.44%

7.3%

8,684

11,491

-0.14%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

110

24/27

LITHUANIA

LTU

2.35%

6.7%

11,141

15,034

-0.41%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

111

25/27

AZERBAIJAN

AZE

2.33%

14.3%

4,899

5,617

1.08%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

112

6/16

FINLAND

FIN

2.33%

3.0%

44,581

55,630

0.30%

WESTERN EUROPE

113

7/16

ITALY

ITA

2.31%

0.7%

35,084

44,497

0.12%

WESTERN EUROPE

114

26/27

LATVIA

LVA

2.25%

7.6%

11,616

15,454

-0.37%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

115

8/16

PORTUGAL

PRT

2.25%

1.1%

21,903

28,136

-0.05%

WESTERN EUROPE

116

9/16

AUSTRIA

AUT

2.24%

2.0%

45,562

57,271

0.14%

WESTERN EUROPE

117

15/16

IRAN, ISLAMIC REP.

IRN

2.18%

3.5%

4,540

5,214

0.92%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

118

10/16

GERMANY

DEU

2.17%

1.5%

40,670

52,428

-0.16%

WESTERN EUROPE

119

20/21

CUBA

CUB

2.14%

5.9%

5,596

7,126

-0.08%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

120

11/16

SWITZERLAND

CHE

2.13%

1.3%

63,629

77,233

0.36%

WESTERN EUROPE

121

27/27

GEORGIA

GEO

2.13%

7.1%

2,449

3,308

-0.64%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

122

12/16

BELGIUM

BEL

2.12%

1.7%

43,671

53,457

0.27%

WESTERN EUROPE

123

16/16

LIBYA

LBY

2.08%

2.1%

9,714

10,828

1.09%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

124

13/16

NETHERLANDS

NLD

1.97%

1.9%

47,917

57,784

0.25%

WESTERN EUROPE

125

14/16

DENMARK

DNK

1.96%

1.3%

55,992

66,902

0.33%

WESTERN EUROPE

126

15/16

GREECE

GRC

1.96%

3.6%

29,240

35,476

0.18%

WESTERN EUROPE

127

21/21

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

TTO

1.95%

6.7%

15,841

19,097

0.24%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

128

16/16

NORWAY

NOR

1.77%

1.6%

79,089

88,980

0.69%

WESTERN EUROPE

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 79

map 3 : Show the geographic pattern of total GDP growth.

Rank 1

128

figure 3 : Plots total GDP growth as a function of GDP per capita.

7% UGA

6% MWI

KEN

TZA ZWE MDG

SEN IND

Expected average annual total GDP growth [2009-2020]

ZMB

MLI LBR

PAK

KGZ

ETH

GIN BGD

TJK

LAO

PNG

2% 1%

SYR PRY

IDN

LKA BOL MDA MNG

SDN MRT

CHN

HND

CMR

EGY

YEM

NIC UZB NGA

KHM

JOR

PHL

VNM CIV GHA

MOZ

GTM

THA TUN COL NAM DOM

PAN MYS MEX CRI

SLV

ISR TUR LBN

BLR KOR ECU ZAF ARGBRA HKG CZE BIH SRB SGP SVK ARE HUN PER QAT ROU OMN POL AGO NZL KWT USA MKD BWA GAB URY SVN IRL KAZ CHL COG GBR SWE HRV MUS JAM VEN ESP FRA BGR EST JPN CAN DZA RUS AUS TKM LTU AZE FIN ITA PRT LVA AUT DEU CUB CHE GEO LBY BEL IRN GRC DNK TTO NLD NOR MAR ALB UKR

GDP per capita in USD [2009]

RANKING 4:

Change in Economic Complexity (1964-2008)

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 81

figure 4 . 1 : Evolution of the ranking of countries based on ECI between 1964 and 2008. Please see pages 352-353 for a larger version. CHE 1 SWE 2 AUT 3 GBR 4 JPN 5 FRA 6 USA 7 ITA 8 BEL 9 NOR 10 FIN 11 DNK 12 NLD 13 HKG 14 HUN 15 POL 16 IRL 17 PAN 18 PRT 19 KOR 20 ISR 21 CAN 22 BGR 23 ESP 24 CHN 25 ROU 26 SLV 27 SGP 28 JOR 29 CRI 30 NZL 31 AUS 32 URY 33 GRC 34 MEX 35 CHL 36 GTM 37 IND 38 LBN 39 MAR 40 MRT 41 ARG 42 CUB 43 COL 44 EGY 45 DZA 46 TUN 47 ZAF 48 MNG 49 ZWE 50 ALB 51 PAK 52 VEN 53 JAM 54 HND 55 NIC 56 TTO 57 SEN 58 SYR 59 VNM 60 OMN 61 PER 62 TUR 63 PHL 64 ECU 65 LBR 66 BOL 67 IRN 68 PRY 69 MYS 70 BRA 71 THA 72 ZMB 73 MWI 74 CIV 75 GIN 76 MLI 77 KHM 78 LAO 79 LKA 80 KEN 81 GHA 82 MDG 83 COG 84 DOM 85 ETH 86 SAU 87 IDN 88 CMR 89 AGO 90 PNG 91 MOZ 92 TZA 93 UGA 94 SDN 95 GAB 96 NGA 97 QAT 98 KWT 99 MUS 100 LBY 101

JPN 1 CHE 2 SWE 3 FIN 4 AUT 5 GBR 6 SGP 7 KOR 8 HUN 9 FRA 10 USA 11 ITA 12 DNK 13 IRL 14 ISR 15 BEL 16 MEX 17 POL 18 NLD 19 ESP 20 HKG 21 ROU 22 CHN 23 NOR 24 THA 25 MYS 26 PRT 27 PAN 28 CAN 29 BGR 30 LBN 31 TUR 32 BRA 33 NZL 34 TUN 35 JOR 36 CRI 37 GRC 38 IND 39 COL 40 ZAF 41 ARG 42 URY 43 PHL 44 SLV 45 IDN 46 DOM 47 ALB 48 GTM 49 TTO 50 EGY 51 CHL 52 VNM 53 AUS 54 SAU 55 LKA 56 SYR 57 MUS 58 SEN 59 QAT 60 MAR 61 KEN 62 ZWE 63 HND 64 JAM 65 CUB 66 PRY 67 PAK 68 OMN 69 PER 70 UGA 71 MDG 72 NIC 73 KWT 74 ECU 75 TZA 76 ZMB 77 LAO 78 GHA 79 KHM 80 BOL 81 CIV 82 VEN 83 ETH 84 IRN 85 MWI 86 MNG 87 LBR 88 MOZ 89 MLI 90 GAB 91 LBY 92 CMR 93 DZA 94 GIN 95 NGA 96 PNG 97 AGO 98 COG 99 MRT 100 SDN 101

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

ranking 4 looks at changes in economic complexity. Here countries are ranked according to the change in ECI experienced between 1964 and 2008. Because of data availability, this ranking is limited to 101 countries. The countries that improved the most during this period are Mauritius, Thailand and Malaysia. Other countries that underwent substantial transformation during this period were Singapore, Indonesia, Brazil, Dominican Republic and Turkey. All of these were countries that dramatically transformed their economies during this forty-four year period (see Part 1, Section 5: How does economic complexity evolve?). These transformations can be seen in detail in their respective country pages. Figure 4.1 shows the change in ECI observed between 1964 and 2008 as a function of a country’s current level of income. Map 4 illustrates the spatial distribution of these changes. Figure 4 provides a visual representation of the change in ECI rankings. Here, each line represents a country, and the vertical position of the line indicates the position on the ranking for a given year. Lines were assigned a color using a perfect gradient according to their ranking in the initial year (1964). This helps identify movements in the ranking of economic complexity during the observed period.

by region: By region, in East Asia and the Pacific the countries that changed their economic complexity the most were Thailand (2), Malaysia (3), Singapore (4) and Indonesia (5). China occupies the 31st position in this ranking. The relatively low

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

position of China in this ranking reflects the fact that China’s transformation built on a productive structure that was more sophisticated than that of many of its regional neighbors. The laggards of this region are Papua New Guinea (78), Australia (95) and Mongolia (97). In South Asia the best performing country was Sri Lanka (16), while Pakistan (73) is the laggard. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia the top performers were Turkey (10) and Romania (19). The lack of historical data for the region is substantial, however, since many of the countries in the region used to belong to the Soviet Union and we do not have good data on their productive structure. In Latin America the countries that experienced the largest change in economic complexity were Brazil (7), Dominican Republic (8) and Mexico (12). The laggards were El Salvador (86), Chile (87) and Venezuela (92). In the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi Arabia (9), Libya (11) and Tunisia (20) were the countries that increased their ECI the most, while the laggards were Morocco (90), which used to be one of the most complex economies of the region, Iran (91) and Algeria (98). Finally, in Western Europe the change in ECI between 1964 and 2008 is dominated by that of Finland (26), Spain (39) and Ireland (46) and the laggards of the region were Portugal (84), Belgium (89) and Norway (96). We note that Western Europe is a region in which all countries have always had positive values of the ECI, which limits the range of potential positive changes.

82 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

R A N K I N G 4 . change in economic complexity ( 1 9 6 4 - 2 0 0 8 ) ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX RANKING ECI (64-08)

REGIONAL RANKING COUNTRY NAME ECI (64-08)

ISO ECI ECI 1964 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 CODE (64-08) (98-08)

RANKING ECI (98-08)

REGIONAL RANKING ECI (98-08)

REGION

1/22

MAURITIUS

MUS

-1.99

-0.92

0.42

-0.18

-0.63

-0.31

1.68

0.32

10/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/16

THAILAND

THA

-0.67

-0.61

0.14

0.09

0.17

0.81

1.48

0.65

1/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/16

MALAYSIA

MYS

-0.67

-0.49

-0.02

0.02

0.48

0.76

1.43

0.28

9/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

3/16

SINGAPORE

SGP

0.59

0.57

0.66

0.84

1.22

1.64

1.05

0.42

6/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

4/16

INDONESIA

IDN

-1.04

-0.89

-0.62

-0.19

-0.01

1.03

0.18

10/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/22

UGANDA

UGA

-1.48

-1.42

-0.78

-1.32

-1.14

-0.49

0.99

0.65

3/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/21

BRAZIL

BRA

-0.74

-0.55

0.31

0.60

0.68

0.24

0.98

-0.43

104

19/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

2/21

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

DOM

-1.05

-0.95

0.34

-0.34

-0.72

-0.06

0.98

0.66

6/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

1/14

SAUDI ARABIA

-1.02

-0.93

-2.64

0.51

0.22

-0.20

0.82

-0.42

103

13/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

1/6

TURKEY

TUR

-0.35

-0.49

0.31

0.38

0.28

0.44

0.79

0.17

9/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2/14

LIBYA

LBY

-2.09

-2.31

-2.07

0.08

-0.72

-1.30

0.78

-0.58

114

15/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

3/21

MEXICO

MEX

0.39

0.24

0.74

0.80

1.14

0.76

0.35

9/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/22

TANZANIA

TZA

-1.21

-1.11

-0.66

-1.17

-1.25

-0.64

0.57

0.61

4/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/22

KENYA

KEN

-0.84

-0.68

0.15

-0.87

-1.12

-0.28

0.56

0.84

1/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

5/16

PHILIPPINES

PHL

-0.46

-0.18

0.25

-0.15

-0.31

0.03

0.50

0.34

8/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/3

SRI LANKA

LKA

-0.73

-0.89

-0.15

-0.47

-0.64

-0.27

0.46

0.37

1/3

SOUTH ASIA

6/16

JAPAN

JPN

1.87

1.93

1.49

2.11

2.21

2.32

0.45

0.11

11/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

7/16

KOREA, REP.

KOR

1.04

0.97

0.89

0.93

0.94

1.47

0.43

0.53

4/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/6

ROMANIA

ROU

0.53

0.88

0.86

1.04

0.64

0.94

0.40

0.29

5/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

3/14

TUNISIA

TUN

-0.08

0.12

0.20

0.18

-0.02

0.29

0.37

0.31

5/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

4/14

LEBANON

LBN

0.11

0.86

0.53

0.35

0.08

0.40

0.30

0.32

4/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

5/14

QATAR

QAT

-0.73

-2.31

-3.61

0.29

-0.79

-0.44

0.29

0.35

2/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

3/6

ALBANIA

ALB

-0.18

0.10

0.39

-0.09

-0.37

0.09

0.26

0.46

2/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

5/22

GHANA

GHA

-1.13

-0.97

-0.62

-1.22

-1.18

-0.87

0.26

0.31

11/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

6/22

MADAGASCAR

MDG

-0.85

-0.89

-0.60

-1.40

-1.14

-0.59

0.25

0.54

6/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1/15

FINLAND

FIN

1.47

1.64

1.21

1.64

1.85

1.71

0.24

-0.13

4/15

WESTERN EUROPE

4/6

HUNGARY

HUN

1.19

1.15

0.91

0.99

1.01

1.43

0.24

0.42

3/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/16

VIETNAM

VNM

-0.40

-0.02

0.02

-0.60

-0.59

-0.18

0.22

0.41

7/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

4/21

PARAGUAY

PRY

-0.68

-0.60

-0.16

-0.71

-0.22

-0.47

0.21

-0.25

14/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

7/22

SENEGAL

SEN

-0.49

-0.30

-0.36

-0.78

-0.97

-0.29

0.20

0.68

2/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

9/16

CHINA

CHN

0.74

0.75

0.57

0.40

0.33

0.89

0.15

0.57

3/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

8/22

SOUTH AFRICA

ZAF

-0.02

-0.20

0.22

0.13

0.41

0.13

0.15

-0.28

18/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

5/21

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

TTO

-0.45

0.10

-0.08

-0.41

-0.06

-0.31

0.15

-0.25

13/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/14

KUWAIT

KWT

-1.36

-0.89

-1.94

0.69

-0.55

-1.22

0.14

-0.67

117

16/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

6/21

COLOMBIA

COL

0.06

-0.23

0.03

0.11

0.28

0.20

0.14

-0.08

12/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

7/14

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

SYR

-0.42

-0.17

-0.29

-0.14

-0.98

-0.29

0.13

0.69

1/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

2/3

INDIA

IND

0.12

0.29

0.40

0.19

0.21

0.25

0.13

0.04

4/3

SOUTH ASIA

8/14

ISRAEL

ISR

1.04

0.78

0.95

1.18

1.24

1.16

0.13

-0.08

8/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

2/15

SPAIN

ESP

0.81

0.89

1.05

1.20

1.13

0.93

0.12

-0.19

7/15

WESTERN EUROPE

9/22

GABON

GAB

-1.48

-1.30

-1.40

-1.62

-0.93

-1.36

0.11

-0.44

105

19/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

7/21

COSTA RICA

CRI

0.22

0.63

-0.04

-0.44

-0.54

0.28

0.06

0.81

3/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

9/14

EGYPT, ARAB REP.

EGY

-0.07

-0.04

0.22

-0.14

-0.30

-0.02

0.05

0.28

6/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

10/22

CÃ&#x201D;TE D'IVOIRE

CIV

-0.92

-1.02

-0.58

-1.63

-1.43

-0.87

0.05

0.56

5/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 83

R A N K I N G 4 . change in economic complexity ( 1 9 6 4 - 2 0 0 8 ) ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX RANKING ECI (64-08)

REGIONAL RANKING COUNTRY NAME ECI (64-08)

ISO ECI ECI 1964 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 CODE (64-08) (98-08)

RANKING ECI (98-08)

REGIONAL RANKING ECI (98-08)

REGION

8/21

ECUADOR

ECU

-0.66

-0.89

-0.52

-0.81

-0.85

-0.62

0.04

0.23

10/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

9/21

ARGENTINA

ARG

0.09

-0.05

0.43

0.28

0.39

0.11

0.01

-0.28

15/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/15

IRELAND

IRL

1.22

1.10

1.44

1.57

1.23

0.01

-0.34

14/15

WESTERN EUROPE

10/16

CAMBODIA

KHM

-0.71

-1.06

0.09

-0.82

-1.19

-0.70

0.01

0.48

5/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

11/22

MOZAMBIQUE

MOZ

-1.08

-0.71

-0.49

-0.10

-0.38

-1.08

0.01

-0.70

119

23/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

12/22

ETHIOPIA

ETH

-0.88

-0.92

-0.60

-0.77

-1.06

-0.89

-0.01

0.17

15/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

13/22

NIGERIA

NGA

-1.38

-1.45

-1.50

-1.71

-1.65

-1.42

-0.04

0.23

13/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/15

SWITZERLAND

CHE

2.04

1.89

1.44

1.90

2.08

1.93

-0.10

-0.14

5/15

WESTERN EUROPE

10/21

PERU

PER

-0.45

-0.73

0.00

-0.04

-0.26

-0.58

-0.12

-0.32

16/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

5/15

SWEDEN

SWE

2.00

1.88

1.46

2.02

2.03

1.86

-0.14

-0.17

6/15

WESTERN EUROPE

6/15

AUSTRIA

AUT

1.96

1.87

1.39

1.78

1.80

1.81

-0.15

0.01

2/15

WESTERN EUROPE

11/16

NEW ZEALAND

NZL

0.47

0.32

0.58

0.57

0.47

0.29

-0.18

14/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

11/21

GUATEMALA

GTM

0.09

0.32

-0.36

-0.84

-0.86

-0.10

-0.19

0.76

4/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

12/21

PANAMA

PAN

1.02

1.14

0.03

0.30

-0.13

0.83

-0.19

0.96

2/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

13/21

JAMAICA

JAM

-0.15

-0.08

0.12

-0.53

-0.78

-0.34

-0.20

0.44

8/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

LAO PDR

LAO

-0.67

-0.60

-0.47

-1.11

-0.83

-0.88

-0.21

-0.05

13/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

7/15

DENMARK

DNK

1.50

1.40

1.18

1.59

1.54

1.27

-0.23

-0.27

12/15

WESTERN EUROPE

5/6

POLAND

POL

1.26

1.08

0.94

1.11

1.02

-0.24

0.00

15/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

14/21

URUGUAY

URY

0.35

0.26

0.58

0.49

0.44

0.11

-0.24

-0.33

18/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

8/15

GREECE

GRC

0.46

0.31

0.64

0.20

0.26

0.21

-0.25

-0.04

3/15

WESTERN EUROPE

10/14

JORDAN

JOR

0.58

0.82

1.03

0.42

0.43

0.33

-0.25

-0.11

10/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

15/21

HONDURAS

HND

-0.23

-0.13

-0.31

-0.97

-1.09

-0.52

-0.28

0.57

7/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

14/22

CAMEROON

CMR

-1.12

-0.71

-0.61

-1.83

-1.73

-1.40

-0.29

0.32

9/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

11/14

OMAN

OMN

-0.30

-1.13

-2.45

0.18

-0.33

-0.60

-0.30

-0.27

11/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

16/21

NICARAGUA

NIC

-0.36

0.08

-0.29

-0.93

-1.32

-0.66

-0.31

0.66

5/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

13/16

HONG KONG SAR, CHINA

HKG

1.33

1.37

0.92

0.88

0.42

1.02

-0.31

0.60

2/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

17/21

BOLIVIA

BOL

-0.57

-0.60

-0.21

-0.99

-0.56

-0.88

-0.31

-0.32

17/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

9/15

FRANCE

FRA

1.79

1.68

1.30

1.67

1.47

-0.31

-0.20

9/15

WESTERN EUROPE

1/2

UNITED STATES

USA

1.78

1.76

1.35

1.58

1.81

1.45

-0.33

-0.36

1/2

NORTH AMERICA

3/3

PAKISTAN

PAK

-0.06

-0.12

0.19

-0.49

-0.72

-0.40

-0.34

0.33

2/3

SOUTH ASIA

10/15

UNITED KINGDOM

GBR

1.92

1.87

1.36

1.81

1.92

1.56

-0.36

-0.37

101

15/15

WESTERN EUROPE

11/15

NETHERLANDS

NLD

1.41

1.37

1.08

1.39

1.37

1.04

-0.37

-0.33

13/15

WESTERN EUROPE

15/22

SUDAN

SDN

-1.39

-1.15

-0.79

-0.89

-1.08

-1.77

-0.38

-0.69

118

22/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

18/21

CUBA

CUB

-0.03

-0.40

-0.17

-0.39

-0.62

-0.43

-0.40

0.19

11/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

14/16

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

PNG

-1.17

-1.10

-1.04

-1.60

-1.55

-1.58

-0.41

-0.02

12/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

12/15

ITALY

ITA

1.72

1.74

1.29

1.61

1.54

1.31

-0.41

-0.23

11/15

WESTERN EUROPE

6/6

BULGARIA

BGR

1.00

0.71

0.80

1.11

0.65

0.59

-0.42

-0.06

17/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

16/22

LIBERIA

LBR

-0.70

-0.64

-0.60

-1.48

-0.60

-1.13

-0.43

-0.52

112

20/22

2/2

CANADA

CAN

1.02

1.04

1.06

0.97

1.02

0.57

-0.45

107

2/2

17/22

ZAMBIA

ZMB

-0.47

-1.26

-0.09

-0.39

-0.96

-0.93

-0.46

0.03

16/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

13/15

PORTUGAL

PRT

1.17

1.06

0.85

0.69

0.57

0.70

-0.47

0.13

1/15

WESTERN EUROPE

18/22

MALI

MLI

-0.63

-0.85

-0.20

-0.62

-1.48

-1.10

-0.48

0.38

7/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

19/21

EL SALVADOR

SLV

0.51

0.67

0.23

-0.61

-1.03

0.03

-0.48

1.05

1/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA NORTH AMERICA

84 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

R A N K I N G 4 . change in economic complexity ( 1 9 6 4 - 2 0 0 8 ) ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX RANKING ECI (64-08)

REGIONAL RANKING COUNTRY NAME ECI (64-08)

ISO ECI ECI 1964 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 CODE (64-08) (98-08)

RANKING ECI (98-08)

REGIONAL RANKING ECI (98-08)

REGION

20/21

CHILE

CHL

0.20

0.10

0.28

-0.07

0.12

-0.31

-0.52

-0.44

106

20/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

19/22

GUINEA

GIN

-0.93

-1.02

-0.94

-1.86

-1.79

-1.44

-0.52

0.34

8/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

14/15

BELGIUM

BEL

1.67

1.54

1.24

1.53

1.60

1.08

-0.58

-0.52

111

16/15

WESTERN EUROPE

12/14

MOROCCO

MAR

0.20

-0.15

0.31

-0.18

-0.51

-0.40

-0.60

0.11

7/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

13/14

IRAN, ISLAMIC REP.

IRN

-0.61

-0.68

-0.92

-0.86

-0.69

-1.23

-0.62

-0.54

113

14/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

21/21

VENEZUELA, RB

VEN

-0.47

-0.19

-0.94

-0.19

0.25

-1.11

-0.64

-1.36

124

21/21

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

20/22

ANGOLA

AGO

-1.10

-1.08

-1.57

-1.01

-1.16

-1.79

-0.69

-0.64

115

21/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

21/22

CONGO, REP.

COG

-1.00

-0.88

-1.07

-1.61

-1.58

-1.71

-0.71

-0.12

17/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

15/16

AUSTRALIA

AUS

0.41

0.37

0.41

0.22

0.18

-0.32

-0.73

-0.50

109

16/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

15/15

NORWAY

NOR

1.53

1.59

1.13

1.26

0.99

0.78

-0.75

-0.21

10/15

WESTERN EUROPE

16/16

MONGOLIA

MNG

-0.08

-0.48

0.15

-0.02

-0.71

-1.17

-1.09

-0.46

108

15/16

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

14/14

ALGERIA

DZA

-0.01

-0.39

-0.26

0.50

-0.81

-1.21

-1.20

-0.40

102

12/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

22/22

MAURITANIA

MRT

0.40

0.23

-0.12

-1.21

-1.01

-1.91

-2.31

-0.89

123

24/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ARE

-3.61

0.53

-0.02

-0.11

-0.08

9/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

AZERBAIJAN

AZE

0.37

-1.22

-1.60

125

26/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

BANGLADESH

BGD

-0.99

-0.89

0.11

3/3

SOUTH ASIA

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

BIH

0.52

0.60

0.08

13/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

BELARUS

BLR

0.53

1.12

0.59

1/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

0.03

-0.62

BOTSWANA

BWA

CZECH REPUBLIC

CZE

1.52

-0.62 1.63

0.10

11/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

GERMANY

DEU

2.18

1.98

-0.20

8/15

WESTERN EUROPE

ESTONIA

EST

0.55

0.79

0.24

7/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

GEORGIA

GEO

0.48

-0.26

-0.74

120

23/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

CROATIA

HRV

0.79

0.99

0.20

8/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

KAZAKHSTAN

KAZ

0.21

-0.61

-0.82

122

25/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

KGZ

0.09

-0.24

-0.33

19/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

LITHUANIA

LTU

0.42

0.68

0.27

6/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

LATVIA

LVA

0.22

0.59

0.37

4/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MOLDOVA

MDA

0.11

0.27

0.15

10/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MACEDONIA, FYR

MKD

0.01

-0.02

16/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

MALAWI

MWI

-1.31

-1.02

0.28

12/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

NAMIBIA

NAM

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

RUS

-0.36

100

20/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

SERBIA

SRB

SLOVAK REPUBLIC

SVK

1.33

1.38

0.05

14/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

SLOVENIA

SVN

1.43

1.52

0.09

12/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

TAJIKISTAN

TJK

-0.24

-1.05

-0.81

121

24/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

TURKMENISTAN

TKM

-0.55

-1.22

-0.67

116

22/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

-0.78

-0.65

-1.39

-0.27 0.69

0.32 0.64

UKRAINE

UKR

0.88

0.56

-0.33

18/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

UZBEKISTAN

UZB

-0.15

-0.66

-0.51

110

21/6

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

YEMEN, REP.

YEM

-1.38

-1.04

0.33

3/14

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

ZIMBABWE

ZWE

-0.56

-0.33

0.23

14/22

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

1.15

-0.02

-0.52

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 85

map 4 : Illustrates the spatial dristribution of these changes.

Rank 1

figure 4 : Provides a visual representation of the change in ECI rankings.

1.5 SLV

PAN

Change in Economic Complexity [1998-2008]

KEN UGA TZA MDG

0.5

GIN MWI ZWE ETH

SEN NIC CIV KHM VNM YEM MLI CMR PAK GHA NGA

BGD

PHL LKA EGY IDN MDA

SDN TJK

MAR

PRY UKR

MNG

GEO

THA DOM CHN BLR ALB JAM

MUS

BIH MKD BGR JOR COL PER DZA IRN AGO TKM

HKG

KOR

MEX LBN ROU MYS CUB TUR

TUN ECU

COG BOL

UZB

LBR MOZ

-1

HND

ZMB IND LAO PNG KGZ

-0.5

GTM SYR

CRI

ZAF

HUN LVA LTU EST HRV POL

ARG URY RUS BRA CHL GAB LBY

CZE SVK

TTO OMN SAU

SGP PRT SVN

QAT

JPN

AUT ARE GRC ISR FIN NZL CHE SWE ESP FRA NOR ITA DEU DNK NLD IRL GBR USA CAN AUS BEL KWT

KAZ

MRT

VEN

-1.5 -2 2 10

AZE

10 3 GDP per capita in USD [2009]

10 4

105

RANKING 5:

Expected Contribution to World GDP Growth to 2020

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 87

Finally, ranking 5 sorts countries according to their expected contribution to total world GDP growth in the period to 2020. As expected, the ranking is dominated by large economies. The United States and China are expected to be the largest contributors and are followed more distantly by Japan and India. What is worth highlighting from ranking 5 is the much larger importance of developing countries in the contribution to global growth. This is highlighted by the very large difference in incomes per capita between the top four countries. Consumers from China, India, Brazil and Mexico will now be a more important part of global economic dynamism, but, given that their lower incomes, their needs are radically different from those of the richer countries that have until now led the growth process. This will shape important changes in the demand structure of future growth. Figure 5 illustrates Ranking 5 by plotting the expected contribution to total GDP of each country as a function of GDP per capita. Map 5 shows the spatial distribution of Ranking 5.

by region: In Western Europe the top contributors to world GDP growth will be Germany (5), France (6) and United Kingdom (7). In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Russia (14), Turkey (15) and Poland (20) are expected to be the leaders. Brazil (8), Mexico (10), Argentina (22) and Colombia (23) will be the largest Latin American contributors. In the Middle East and North Africa, the top contributors are Saudi Arabia (18), Egypt (24) and Israel (33). In South Asia, the top contributor to world GDP growth will be India (4) followed distantly by Pakistan (31). South Africa (28), Nigeria (38) and Angola (62) will lead the regional ranking in Sub-Saharan Africa.

88 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

R A N K I N G 5 . expected contribution to world gdp growth to 2 0 2 0 RANKING - CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

REGIONAL RANKING - CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

REGION

1/2

UNITED STATES

USA

22.41%

NORTH AMERICA

1/16

CHINA

CHN

14.21%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/16

JAPAN

JPN

7.11%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/4

INDIA

IND

4.89%

SOUTH ASIA

1/16

GERMANY

DEU

3.88%

WESTERN EUROPE

2/16

FRANCE

FRA

3.64%

WESTERN EUROPE

3/16

UNITED KINGDOM

GBR

3.33%

WESTERN EUROPE

1/21

BRAZIL

BRA

3.22%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

4/16

ITALY

ITA

2.63%

WESTERN EUROPE

2/21

MEXICO

MEX

2.44%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

5/16

SPAIN

ESP

2.12%

WESTERN EUROPE

2/2

CANADA

CAN

1.88%

NORTH AMERICA

3/16

KOREA, REP.

KOR

1.63%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/27

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

RUS

1.63%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

2/27

TURKEY

TUR

1.41%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

4/16

INDONESIA

IDN

1.37%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

5/16

AUSTRALIA

AUS

1.26%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

1/16

SAUDI ARABIA

0.85%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

6/16

NETHERLANDS

NLD

0.83%

WESTERN EUROPE

3/27

POLAND

POL

0.75%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

6/16

THAILAND

THA

0.71%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

3/21

ARGENTINA

ARG

0.61%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

4/21

COLOMBIA

COL

0.59%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

2/16

EGYPT, ARAB REP.

EGY

0.58%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

7/16

SWEDEN

SWE

0.58%

WESTERN EUROPE

7/16

MALAYSIA

MYS

0.58%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

8/16

SWITZERLAND

CHE

0.56%

WESTERN EUROPE

1/26

SOUTH AFRICA

ZAF

0.55%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

9/16

BELGIUM

BEL

0.54%

WESTERN EUROPE

8/16

PHILIPPINES

PHL

0.53%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

2/4

PAKISTAN

PAK

0.48%

SOUTH ASIA

5/21

VENEZUELA, RB

VEN

0.48%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

3/16

ISRAEL

ISR

0.47%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

10/16

AUSTRIA

AUT

0.46%

WESTERN EUROPE

4/16

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

ARE

0.42%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

9/16

HONG KONG SAR, CHINA

HKG

0.39%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

5/16

IRAN, ISLAMIC REP.

IRN

0.39%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

2/26

NIGERIA

NGA

0.38%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

4/27

CZECH REPUBLIC

CZE

0.36%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

11/16

NORWAY

NOR

0.36%

WESTERN EUROPE

12/16

GREECE

GRC

0.34%

WESTERN EUROPE

13/16

IRELAND

IRL

0.34%

WESTERN EUROPE

10/16

SINGAPORE

SGP

0.34%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 89

R A N K I N G 5 . expected contribution to world gdp growth to 2 0 2 0 RANKING - CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

REGIONAL RANKING - CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

REGION

14/16

DENMARK

DNK

0.32%

WESTERN EUROPE

15/16

FINLAND

FIN

0.30%

WESTERN EUROPE

5/27

ROMANIA

ROU

0.29%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

16/16

PORTUGAL

PRT

0.28%

WESTERN EUROPE

6/21

CHILE

CHL

0.26%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

11/16

VIETNAM

VNM

0.26%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

6/16

KUWAIT

KWT

0.26%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

7/21

PERU

PER

0.24%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

6/27

HUNGARY

HUN

0.23%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

12/16

NEW ZEALAND

NZL

0.21%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

7/27

UKRAINE

UKR

0.20%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

7/16

ALGERIA

DZA

0.20%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

3/4

BANGLADESH

BGD

0.19%

SOUTH ASIA

8/16

MOROCCO

MAR

0.18%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

8/27

KAZAKHSTAN

KAZ

0.18%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

9/16

QATAR

QAT

0.18%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

9/27

SLOVAK REPUBLIC

SVK

0.16%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

10/16

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC

SYR

0.14%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

3/26

ANGOLA

AGO

0.14%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

8/21

GUATEMALA

GTM

0.13%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

4/26

KENYA

KEN

0.12%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

9/21

ECUADOR

ECU

0.11%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

10/21

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

DOM

0.11%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

10/27

BELARUS

BLR

0.10%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

11/16

TUNISIA

TUN

0.10%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

11/27

CROATIA

HRV

0.09%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

4/4

SRI LANKA

LKA

0.09%

SOUTH ASIA

5/26

TANZANIA

TZA

0.09%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

6/26

SUDAN

SDN

0.09%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

12/16

JORDAN

JOR

0.08%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

13/16

OMAN

OMN

0.08%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

14/16

YEMEN, REP.

YEM

0.08%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

7/26

ETHIOPIA

ETH

0.08%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

12/27

SERBIA

SRB

0.08%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

13/27

SLOVENIA

SVN

0.08%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

11/21

PANAMA

PAN

0.08%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

15/16

LEBANON

LBN

0.07%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

12/21

COSTA RICA

CRI

0.07%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

13/21

CUBA

CUB

0.07%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

14/27

UZBEKISTAN

UZB

0.07%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

8/26

UGANDA

UGA

0.07%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

16/16

LIBYA

LBY

0,07%

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

9/26

GHANA

GHA

0.07%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

90 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

R A N K I N G 5 . expected contribution to world gdp growth to 2 0 2 0 RANKING - CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

REGIONAL RANKING - CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

COUNTRY NAME

ISO CODE

CONTRIBUTION TO WORLD GDP GROWTH TO 2020

REGION

15/27

BULGARIA

BGR

0.07%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

10/26

CÃ&#x201D;TE D'IVOIRE

CIV

0.06%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

16/27

AZERBAIJAN

AZE

0.05%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

14/21

URUGUAY

URY

0.05%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

11/26

SENEGAL

SEN

0.05%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

17/27

LITHUANIA

LTU

0.05%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

15/21

EL SALVADOR

SLV

0.05%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

12/26

ZAMBIA

ZMB

0.04%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

13/26

CAMEROON

CMR

0.04%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

16/21

HONDURAS

HND

0.04%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

17/21

BOLIVIA

BOL

0.04%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

18/21

PARAGUAY

PRY

0.04%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

14/26

MADAGASCAR

MDG

0.03%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

100

18/27

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

BIH

0.03%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

101

19/27

LATVIA

LVA

0.03%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

102

20/27

TURKMENISTAN

TKM

0.03%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

103

15/26

MALI

MLI

0.03%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

104

21/27

ESTONIA

EST

0.03%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

105

16/26

MOZAMBIQUE

MOZ

0.03%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

106

13/16

CAMBODIA

KHM

0.02%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

107

17/26

NAMIBIA

NAM

0.02%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

108

22/27

ALBANIA

ALB

0.02%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

109

18/26

ZIMBABWE

ZWE

0.02%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

110

19/21

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

TTO

0.02%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

111

19/26

BOTSWANA

BWA

0.02%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

112

20/26

GABON

GAB

0.02%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

113

20/21

JAMAICA

JAM

0.02%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

114

21/26

MALAWI

MWI

0.02%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

115

22/26

CONGO, REP.

COG

0.01%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

116

23/27

MACEDONIA, FYR

MKD

0.01%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

117

21/21

NICARAGUA

NIC

0.01%

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

118

14/16

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

PNG

0.01%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

119

24/27

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC

KGZ

0.01%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

120

23/26

MAURITIUS

MUS

0.01%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

121

15/16

LAO PDR

LAO

0.01%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

122

25/27

GEORGIA

GEO

0.01%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

123

26/27

MOLDOVA

MDA

0.01%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

124

27/27

TAJIKISTAN

TJK

0.01%

EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA

125

24/26

GUINEA

GIN

0.01%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

126

16/16

MONGOLIA

MNG

0.01%

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

127

25/26

MAURITANIA

MRT

0.00%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

128

26/26

LIBERIA

LBR

0.00%

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 91

map 5 : Shows the spatial distribution of Ranking 5.

Rank 1

128

figure 5 : Illustrates Ranking 5 by plotting the expected contribuyion to total GDP of each country as a fuction of GDP per capita.

100% USA

Expected contribution to the increase in total world GDP [2009-2020]

CHN

10%

JPN IND

DEU GBR FRA ITA ESP CAN

BRA MEX RUS TUR

IDN

1% PAK

PHL

THA

EGY

VNM

BGD

0.1%

TZA UGA

ETH

LBR

MOZ MDG

MWI

0.01% 10 2

ZWE GIN

AUS SAU

NLD SWE CHE BEL VEN ISR AUT ARE HKG CZE NOR GRC SGP IRL FIN DNK ROU CHL PRT KWT HUN NZL KAZ QAT SVK

ARG COL ZAF MYS IRN

NGA

KOR POL

PER UKR DZA MAR SYR AGO KEN GTM ECU DOM BLR TUN YEM SDN LKA HRV JOR SRB PAN OMN GHA CUB CRIBGR LBN LBY UZB MRT CIV SLV AZE URY LTU SEN BOL HND ZMB PRY CMR MLI LVA EST TKM BIH KHM LAO NIC MNG MDA TJK KGZ PNG

ALB COG GEO

NAM

JAM MKD

BWA

GAB

SVN

TTO

MUS

10 3 10 4 GDP per capita in USD [2009]

10 5

PA R T 3

COUNTRY PAGES

How to read the country pages

1 . I de n tity : Here we identify the country using its name and flag.

5 . T h e P roduct S pace : This section shows the position of a country in the product space. The product space is the network summarizing global similarities in the productive knowhow required by products (see Chapter 5). Nodes represent products and are colored according to communities using the color legend that can be found at the top right of the next page. Node size is proportional to global trade in that product and links connect products that tend to be exported by the same countries (see Technical Box 5.1). The footprint of a country on the product space is indicated using square nodes with thick black outlines. These are the goods that the country exports with RCA>1 (see Chapter 2).

2 . M ai n I n dicators : This section shows the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for the year 2008 and the expected average annualized growth for the 2009-2020 period. The first number shows the value of the indicator. Numbers in parenthesis show the global ranking and the regional ranking for the country.

brazil ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.244 / (52/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.73% / (48/8)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008

Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3 Fraction of products with RCA > 1

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

Average Complexity of Missing Products

6 . E xport O pportu n ity S pectrum : These two figures summarize the position of a country in the product space. Here, bubbles represent a community of products and their size is proportional to global trade in that product community. The fraction of each bubble that is shown in white represents the fraction of all goods in that community for which the country has an RCA>1. In this example, out of 125 products in Machinery, Brazil makes 32 of them, so 75% of the circle is filled with the color corresponding to the machinery community. In both charts, the vertical axis shows the average complexity of the products in that community that the country is not currently making. The horizontal axis on the left figure shows the distance between the country’s current productive structure to each one of the product communities. The horizontal of the right figure displays the opportunity gain, which is a measure of the number of new products that become closer if the country were to move into that community (see Technical Box 5.3). For both the distance and opportunity gain measures, only the products that are more complex than the country’s complexity level are considered. The dashed grey line indicates the country’s level of economic complexity measured using the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). Natural resource based communities are not shown (mining, precious stones, coal and oil). Communities for which countries export all products are not shown.

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.015

Distance

2008

0.02

0.025

0.03

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1k 800 600 400 200 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

7. E v olutio n o f E xport C ompositio n : This section shows the evolution of the country’s exports per capita in dollars between 1968 and 2008 at constant 2008 prices. Colors indicate product communities.These are indicated in the top right corner of the next page (for states that were formed after 1968, we use as starting year the first year for which data is available).

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 95

3 . T raditio n al i n dicators : This section shows a small set of indicators that can be used to put the country in context. For each indicator, the first number shows its value and the numbers in parenthesis show the country’s corresponding global and regional ranking. The region the country belongs to is shown to the right of the indicators.

1968

Total Exports: 2.17 B / 228.33 B (0.95%)

2631 (8.1%)

0440 (3.7%)

0577 (1.2%) 2654 (1.2%) 0422

0813 (2.2%)

0612

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7849 (2.5%) Other vehicles parts

7821 (1.6%)

7132

7431 (0.61%) 7162 (0.6%)

0149 0111

2681

0115

2120

0723 0611 (1.8%) (1.5%)

0712 (1.3%) 4314 0573 0585

7234 (1.2%) Construction & mining machinery

6725 (2.9%) Iron/steel billets

Oil

Mining

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Garments

Food Processing

Not classified

Textile & Fabrics

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Tropical agric.

Cereals & veg. oils

Misc. Agriculture

2815 (5.5%)

2816 (2.4%)

2517 (2%)

2873

6725 (3.2%)

6673

6727 (1.7%) 6712 (1.5%)

2879 6725

6841 (3.7%) 4232 1212 (1.7%) 0723 0577 (0.88%) 0721 0611 0811 8510 (4.8%)

2222 (3.1%)

6716 (1.4%) 6746 (1.3%) 6744 (1.4%) 6724

6712 (2.2%) Pig & cast iron

6412 6415

6745

6732 (1.1%) 2483

6513 6871

7821 (1.9%) 6731 7431 6521

7224 6251 7842

7139

7259 7138

7132

6747 7621 2814

0111 (1.4%)

6252 7923 0114

0149 6114 (1.2%) 2919 0360

6342

0712 (1.1%) 5831 (0.88%)

0585 (4.7%)

2815 (7.9%) Not agglomerated iron ore

0114 (4.3%) Poultry meat

6716 (1.6%) Ferro-alloys 0111 (2.9%) Bovine meat 7924 (3.1%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

7212

7842

7923 0813 (3.1%) Oilcake

7643 (1.6%) Television & radio transmitters

2816 (3.9%) Agglomerated iron ore

7938 (1.1%) 6252 Special floating structures

6731

2222 (7.8%) Soya beans

Total Exports: 37.39 B / 2.79 T (1.34%)

Total Exports: 198.08 B / 15.56 T (1.27%) Total Exports: 198.08 B / 15.56 T (1.27%)

7841 7169

Total Exports: 37.39 b / 2.79 T (1.34%)

0711 (8.6%)

6649

2877 (1.7%)

5513

7139 (1.2%) Piston engines parts N.E.S. 7832

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

6413 2472

4245 (2%)

2222

EXPORT TREEMAP

0813 (8.2%)

2482 (4.6%)

0360

0721 (2.7%)

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 2.17 b / 228.33 B (0.95%)

0711 (47%)

Fish & Seafood

Animal Fibers

Leather

Petrochemicals

Milk & cheese

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,031 / (77/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (120/20)

Inor. salts & acids

Agrochemicals

Other Chemicals

Pulp & paper

Chemicals & health

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 1.7 T / (9/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,609 / (50/6)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Ships

EXPORT TREEMAP

Metal products

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 192 M / (5/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 198 B / (21/2)

4 . P roduct C ommu n ities : This legend shows the colors used to indicate the community to which each product belongs. These are the colors used to identify product communities in the Product Space, Export Opportunity Spectrum, Evolution of Export Composition and Export Treemap sections of the country page.

0711 (3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

0612 (1.3%) Refined sugar

2877 6841 (1.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 2517 (2.7%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate

0611 (2.6%) Raw 4232 (1.9%) Soya bean oil sugar beet & cane

1212 (1.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0440 (1%)

2631

2873 (1.3%) Aluminium ore

2782

6415

2871 (0.85%) Copper 5112

0149 (1.7%) Other 0113 (0.97%) prepared or preserved meat & entrails 6114 (1.3%) Bovine & equine leather

0224

5161

0585 (1.5%) 5121 (1.8%) Fruit or Acyclic alcohols vegetable juices & derivatives

5221

8510 (1.3%) Footwear

5146 0712

2483 (0.65%)

6353 6624

6342

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5831

5629

6613

8 . E xport T reemaps : This section shows treemaps summarizing the composition of a country’s exports for the years 1968, 1988 and 2008. The total area represents 100% of the country’s exports, whereas the smaller areas represent the share of each product. Products are grouped in communities and colored accordingly. The first number shows the SITC4 rev2 code for the product. Parenthesis show the share of trade represented by that good. Name of products with large export shares are shown for 2008. For a full list of products see http://atlas.media.mit.edu

96 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

â&#x20AC;&#x153;More interactive visualizations can be

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 97

found at: http://atlas.media.mit.edu”

98 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

albania ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.087 / (58/19)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.05% / (32/13)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.015

0.02

Distance

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

480 384 288 192 96 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 99

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 11.07 M / 228.33 B (0.005%)

6821 (12%)

0544 (3.2%) 2924 (2.2%)

0440 (5.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking) Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 11.07 M / 228.33 B (0.005%)

2879 (24%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 484 / (96/22) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (124/27)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 13 B / (107/22) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,126 / (75/20)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.1 M / (114/23) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.5 B / (124/26)

Total Exports: 235.66 M / 2.79 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 235.66 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

2879 (19%)

2872 (4.6%)

1223 (5.8%)

3354 (3%)

1222 (1.8%)

2924 (3.2%)

0544 (3%)

0542 2631 (4.4%)

2114 (1.8%) 3354 (14%)

3330 (6.6%)

2789 (3.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2681 (1%)

5232 (1.7%)

2116 (1.2%)

0113

6521 (1.9%)

6592 (1.5%)

6612 (1.3%)

2008

0577 (0.81%) 2922 (0.79%) 1222

0360

8510 (8.8%) Footwear

0575 5322 3352 8960

6716 (15%)

2815 (1%) 3353 (1%)

6612

0545 (6.9%)

2890

6822 (2.8%)

1212

0752 0412

4235 (1.7%)

0577 5232 (5.1%)

0579 0561

6712 (3.1%)

1124 6822 (1.3%) (1.2%)

6513 (1.3%)

Total Exports: 1.52 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

7731 (1.2%)

2882 (1.1%) 2789 (0.99%)

1211 (1.6%)

8429 (1.1%)

8423 8441 6592 (2.6%)

8431 (1%)

8997

0012 8211 (0.99%) 7731

Total Exports: 1.52 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

8423 (6.3%) Men's trousers

6991 (4.1%) Base metal locksmiths wares N.E.S.

7169 (0.97%) Parts of rotating electric plants 8743 N.E.S. (0.64%)

7411 (0.91%) 2879 (5%) Other non-ferrous base Gas metals generators & parts 7264

2871 (1.8%)

7161 6123 (8.5%) Non-metal & non-abestos footwear material

6725 (4.6%) Iron/steel billets 6716 (2.4%) Ferro-alloys

7921

2882 (2.8%) Other non-ferrous base metals

7144

8462 (5.6%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8459 (2.1%) Other 8435 knitted outerwear

8451 (1.1%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

6612 (1.6%) Cement 2731

6733 6732 (5.7%) Iron/steel rods

0371 (1.7%) Fish N.E.S.

2924 (1.7%) Flora in pharmacy

8463 (1.1%)

8441 (3.2%) Men's undershirt

8439 (1.1%) Other women outerwear 8429

8471

6114

8422

2820 (1.7%) Iron & steel waste

6354 8219 8472

3354 (1.8%) Petroleum bitumen N.E.S.

6842 (0.58%) 8211

3510 2483

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6624

6421 (2%) Paper packing containers

8931 5629 (0.54%)

100 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

algeria ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.213 / (114 / 13)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.28% / (110/11)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.987

0.988

0.989

0.99

0.991

0.992

0.993

0.994

-0.02

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

2.3 k 1.8 k 1.3 k 920 460 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 101

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 934.18 M / 228.33 B (0.41%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 8.99 b / 2.79 T (0.32%) Total Exports: 8.99 B / 2.79 T (0.32%)

3330 (57%)

1121 (8.5%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 934.18 M / 228.33 B (0.41%)

3330 (84%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,310 / (55/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 46 % (36/8)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 171 B / (46/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,974 / (67/9)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 34 M / (33/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 79 B / (40/5)

3413 (36%)

6727

6749 6712 7283 0579 0565 (1.3%)

2713 3345

0571 (2.1%)

2116

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (58%) Crude petroleum

0812

3352 2820

0541

7752

6592

Total Exports: 79.36 B / 15.56 T (0.51%) Total Exports: 79.36 B / 15.56 T (0.51%) 3414 (20%) petroleum gases

3413 (20%) liquified hydrocarbons

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

102 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

angola ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.793 / (127 / 25)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.54% / (127/25)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.9945

0.995

0.9955

0.996

0.9965

0.997

0.9975

-0.02

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

3.6 k 2.8 k 2.1 k 1.4 k 720 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 103

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 289.36 M / 228.33 B (0.13%)

2654 (3.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (89%)

6673 (22%)

2631 (3.2%)

0440 (4.3%)

0548

2008

0542 2924

EXPORT TREEMAP

2232 0573 2877 (0.98%) (0.84%) 2472 (2.5%) 4242

0814 (1.6%)

0721

6575

Total Exports: 64.94 B / 15.56 T (0.42%) Total Exports: 64.94 B / 15.56 T (0.42%)

3330 (99%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

Total Exports: 2.07 b / 2.79 T (0.1%) Total Exports: 2.70 B / 2.79 T (0.1%)

6672 (7.5%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 289.36 M / 228.33 B (0.13%)

0711 (51%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,601 / (45/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 77 % (9/3)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 84 B / (61/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,671 / (70/5)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 18 M / (52/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 65 B / (47/3)

104 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

argentina ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.106 / (57 / 7)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.61% / (54/9)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.02

0.025

Distance

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.8 k 1.4 k 1k 720 360 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 105

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.54 B / 228.33 B (0.68%)

0011 (2.4%)

0440 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0111 (3.9%)

4236 (4.2%) 0149 (9.5%)

4236 (1.6%)

0116 (1.3%) 4113 2681 (5.5%)

2682 (3.2%)

2111 (3.9%)

0812 (3.3%)

6114

2008

2116

0452 (1.5%)

0814 5322 (1.6%) 2911

0612

0412 (4%)

0430

4235 6782

6732

0546 7512

2876

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

0344 (1.3%)

0115 (0.9%) 0616

0342 2682 2919 (1.5%)

0360 (1.2%) 0343 2681 (1.5%)

4232 (3.8%) 6512

0459 (2.9%)

0741

8921 0579 (0.93%) 0545

0149 (2.5%)

6114 (5.2%)

5922

2919

EXPORT TREEMAP

0574 (4.4%)

4234 (1.2%)

2222 (6.7%)

2120 6512

4241 (1.8%)

0141 (1.3%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 10.57 B / 2.79 T (0.38%)

0440 (4.7%)

0115 (2.1%) 0112 (1.3%)

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Total Exports: 10.57 b / 2.79 T (0.38%)

0813 (16%)

0813 (5.9%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 1.54 b / 228.33 B (0.68%)

0111 (12%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,755 / (65/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (93/12)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 327 B / (29/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,189 / (53/7)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 40 M / (30/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 70 B / (44/4)

0459 (1.9%)

2631 (1.9%)

6783 6727 6782 (0.9%) (0.87%) (1.8%) 6745 6725 6731 4241 4249 6746 6749 7525 2221 0574 (1.5%) 0542 1212 5112 5322 5831 (1.2%) 0812 4233 0571 0572 0611 5113

2687

0579 0585 (1.4%) 6841 (2.2%) 6842

8481

2472

6123

Total Exports: 70.04 B / 15.56 T (0.45%) Total Exports: 70.04 B / 15.56 T (0.45%)

0813 (13%) Oilcake

4232 (8.8%) Soya bean oil

7810 (5.1%) Cars

7821 (3.4%) Trucks & vans

0111 (2.5%) Bovine meat

0114

0616 0116 0360 (1.1%) 7849 (2.3%) Other vehicles parts

2222 (8.3%) Soya beans

0440 (6.4%) Unmilled maize

0412 (4.6%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

7239 (1.9%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S.

6782 (0.74%)

0344

5989 (1.9%) Chemical products

5839

2871 (2%) Copper 0589

0488 0812

0482

0572

0459 0422

2221

1212

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5913 (0.79%)

5530 (0.64%) 0819

5831 (0.58%)

0579 (0.92%) 0585

4311

0460 (0.8%)

1121 (1.2%) Wine

0430

9710 (1.3%) 6841 (1.2%) Gold, Unwrought non-monetary aluminium & aluminium alloys

0240

6114 (1.6%) Bovine & equine leather

7924

4236 (2.7%) Sunflower seed oil

0342

7831 6251

3413 (2%) liquified hydrocarbons

0224 (0.89%)

0914

106 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

australia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.321 / (79 / 12)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.23% / (114/15)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3 Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

3 2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.01

0.02

Distance

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

8.8 k 7k 5.2 k 3.5 k 1.7 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 107

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 3.73 B / 228.33 B (1.63%)

2682 6851 (3.2%) (2.5%)

2875 2874

0112 (2.6%) 0230 (2.3%)

0224 0240 (0.94%) 5922 6749 0116 0149 2116 (2.5%) 2111 0360 6727 (1.6%) 2919 4113 6731

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 35.26 b / 2.79 T (1.26%) Total Exports: 35.26 B / 2.79 T (1.26%)

2815 (6.9%)

2681 (13%)

0111 (6%)

0012 (0.93%) 0112 (0.91%) 4113

5225 (2.3%)

2877 0460 (1.5%)

2873 (4.7%)

6861

6673 2872 0612 0574

0488 0452 0482 6822 0589 (2.4%) 9610 (1.4%) 6712 2820 0579

2111 (1%) 0360 0224 (1.6%) 0240 6512 2116

2877 2682 (2.9%) 2816 6841 (6.7%)

6851

2879 (1.6%)

6821

0412 (4.1%)

2783

6831 5241 3413

2874

0372 3345 2460 (1.4%) 6842

8822 5249

2871 2872 (1.4%) 5225

2875

0611 (2.4%)

2631 (1.1%) 0430

6749 6725 1121 0589 7132 0579

0575

Total Exports: 188.89 B / 15.56 T (1.21%) Total Exports: 188.89 B / 15.56 T (1.21%)

3222 (28%) Other coal

9710 (8.5%) Gold, non-monetary

0111 (3%) Bovine meat

0112 (0.82%)

0116

0224 (0.82%) 3413 (6.2%) liquified hydrocarbons

2681 (1.2%) Sheep or lambs greasy wool

0240

0360

0412 (2.2%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 2815 (18%) Not agglomerated iron ore

2873 (3.9%) Aluminium ore

6841 (3.1%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

2875 (0.76%)

6851 0430 (0.75%) 8720

2871 (2.4%) Copper 2877 (1.2%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

6861 2873

6512 (0.92%) 0611 (4.5%) 2686

EXPORT TREEMAP

3222 (16%)

2879 (2.3%)

2876 6811 (1.5%)

0111 (9.9%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

1988

Total Exports: 3.73 b / 228.33 B (1.63%)

2681 (32%)

2008

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 8,819 / (28/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (104/15)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 1 T / (14/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 48,499 / (12/1)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 21 M / (46/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 189 B / (22/7)

6861 (0.62%) 2860

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6821 (1.6%) 6831 (1.4%) Unwrought Unwrought nickel copper & & nickel alloys copper alloys 2872 (0.95%)

8996

1121 (1.5%) Wine

6832

2460 (0.68%) 2820

108 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

austria ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.807 / (5/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.10% / (81/5)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

2008

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

2.5

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

1.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

0 0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

-0.07

0.64

-0.065

2008

-0.06

-0.055

-0.05

-0.045

-0.04

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

21 k 16.8 k 12.6 k 8.4 k 4.2 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 109

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.94 B / 228.33 B (0.85%)

6623 (2.6%)

8472 (2.6%)

6770 8731 7851 6727 (2.8%) 8812 6631 7212 8947 7788 6577 6822 6783 (1.4%) (1.2%) 6782 6991 6992 6716 (1.2%) 6760 7283 8124 6733 6745 7911 2482 (6.4%) 2483 (3.5%) 6842 6412 6415 (1.5%) (3.3%) (1.4%)

8471

6732 (3.5%)

6996 6341 6416 6618 6953 6924 (1.1%) 6343 8960

7731 6911

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (5%) Cars

0118 6658 7852 8998 (1.2%) 8842 8993 6960

6421

8928 2665

7284 (2.5%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

7721 (1.8%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7712 (0.84%)

7788 (0.74%) 8942 (0.82%)

7361 7449

7436 7491

6842 (1.9%)

7442 6954 6731 7822 6785 6760 8947 7638 6746 (1.5%) (1.7%)

8124 7761

6749

8983 7712

6623 (1%)

6732

6343

7731

8219

6911

7259 8743

6991 (1.2%)

7442 (1.6%) Lifting & loading machinery

6991 (1.3%) 7139 7224 7919 Base metal (0.86%) locksmiths wares N.E.S. 7493 7492 6954

7162 (1.1%) 7239 AC electric (0.89%) motors & generators 7452 7281 6782

7491

6415 (1.7%)

6633

5416

8939 (1.1%)

6411 6652 8960

5831 (1.2%) 6658 5832 6210

5839 8742

6745 6783 (0.86%) 5148 6822 6727 8510 6744 6716 (1.4%) 6252 7915 6560

6413

8842 (1%)

3510 (1.4%)

2671

6412 (2.9%)

6997 6428

6353

8462 8431 6522 8459 8465 (0.98%) 8463 6516

5834 0111 5621 0011 6517

6114 6421 0585 0484

6770

7361 7283

7436 6785

7763 (0.69%)

8124

6842 (1.6%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

2482 (1.4%) 3510 Worked wood of coniferous

8219 (1.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

7499 7272

7188

7832

7758

7842

7413

7259

6418

6911

6353 (1.2%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

6760

7212

7415 6744

6746 (0.77%)

7711

7731 (0.84%) 6997 (0.78%) 6924

7915

6412 6413

6633

8211 6416

5417 (3.2%) Medicaments

1110 (1.4%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S.

8939 (1.1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

0980 (0.6%)

0223

6421 (0.58%)

6114

5416 (1.7%) Glycosides & vaccines

5831 (0.84%)

2820 (0.5%)

8931

8972

8928 6745

6415

6973

5821

6749 (1.7%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

6732

6343

8121

7783

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

2482 (2.7%)

7721 7234 7499 7162

7431 7643 (1.1%)

Total Exports: 31.40 B / 2.79 T (1.12%)

6251 7452 7493 7272

Total Exports: 172.26 B / 15.56 T (1.11%) Total Exports: 172.26 B / 15.56 T (1.11%)

7416 7821 (1.8%) Trucks & vans

8972

Total Exports: 31.40 b / 2.79 T (1.12%)

6782 (1.3%)

7611 (1.8%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

6418 7492 7281

7284 (2.5%)

6841 6998 (1.3%) 2789

6413

7849 (3.5%) Other 7234 (1.4%) vehicles parts Construction & mining machinery

7132 (3%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles

6517 (0.8%)

6424 8921 2671 (1.6%) 5621 (1%) (0.9%) 5335 6419 5137 (0.95%) 0011 (2.9%) 6512 2782 (1.4%) 0240

EXPORT TREEMAP

7132 (4.3%)

6560 (2.2%) 6522 (1.3%)

8510 (2.4%)

2518 6633

Tropical agric.

1988

Total Exports: 1.94 b / 228.33 B (0.85%)

7499 7411 7281 7491 6746 (3.9%) (1.8%)

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 20,631 / (12/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 41 % (43/4)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 415 B / (25/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 49,739 / (11/8)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 8.3 M / (77/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 172 B / (27/11)

5839

6210

8742

5832

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6998

6821

0113

110 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

azerbaijan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.223 / (117/27)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.25% / (112/27)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

5.5 k 4.4 k 3.3 k 2.2 k 1.1 k 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 111

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 53.45 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)

6592 (8.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (93%)

6521 (5.3%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 53.45 M / 4.30 t (0.001%)

2631 (61%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 5,507 / (37/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 103 % (4/1)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 46 B / (74/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,329 / (65/17)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 8.7 M / (76/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 48 B / (55/10)

Total Exports: 2.34 b / 5.90 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 2.34 B / 5.90 T (0.04%)

2634 0577 1211

6513 (2.9%)

1222 6841 (3.8%)

5623 (0.94%)

5113

7239

2820 (2.1%) 2882 (3.1%) 2116 6821 (1.6%) 6861 0571

2008

0572

EXPORT TREEMAP

2320

8973

2112 2681

7415 (1.2%) 8960

Total Exports: 47.78 B / 15.56 T (0.31%) Total Exports: 47.78 B / 15.56 T (0.31%)

3330 (98%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7832 5831

112 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bangladesh ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.887 / (103/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.40% / (65/4)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.01

Distance

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

100 80 60 40 20 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 113

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 731.88 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

6513 (8.4%)

6545 (9.9%)

6581 (8.4%)

0360 (14%)

8423 (3%)

8463 (2.3%)

6118 (3.7%) 0422 (3.9%)

2634 (1.3%) 6113

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6114 2919

0360 (1.3%)

0350 8947 (0.76%) 2911 2681 2682

8462 (3.1%)

2111 0118

0342 0350 6545 (8.5%) 8459 (1%)

6113 (3.1%)

8431

2633

8435 (3.9%)

Mining

6114 (5.3%)

6116 (3.3%) 6581 (4.1%)

Oil

Total Exports: 1.25 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

8439 (8.1%)

6592 (1.1%)

8510

Coal

Total Exports: 1.25 b / 2.79 T (0.04%)

6549 2631 (15%)

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). South Asia.

8441 (15%)

6521 (4.6%)

6522 (4%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 731.88 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

2640 (26%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 104 / (123/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (95/1)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 80 B / (62/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 497 / (120/4)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 160 M / (7/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 17 B / (71/3)

2640 (4.6%)

8429 8434 8421 (0.99%)

8451 8443 8452 8433 (0.93%)

5621 (2.5%)

0741 (2.1%)

6519

0545

Total Exports: 16.58 B / 15.56 T (0.11%) Total Exports: 16.58 B / 15.56 T (0.11%)

8462 (21%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8423 (14%) Men's trousers

8459 (6.5%) Other knitted outerwear 8451 (17%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

8439 (10%) Other women outerwear

6584 (2.7%) Linens & furnishing textile articles

8429 (2.2%) Other men outerwear

0360 (2.8%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

8435 (1.7%) Blouses

6114 (1.3%) Bovine & equine leather

2640 (1%) Raw processed jute and other fibres

8441 (6.3%) Men's undershirt

8510 (1.2%) 8463 Footwear

8434

6581

8465 6582

8431 8484 (0.76%) * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8452 (0.72%)

5621

114 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

belarus ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.116 / (21/5)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.99% / (4/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

-0.5 0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

-0.02

0.8

2008

-0.01

0.01

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

3.4 k 2.7 k 2k 1.3 k 680 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 115

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 942.42 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)

5156 (2%)

6841 (9.1%)

6672 (2.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6821 (1.8%)

6725 (2.2%)

5112 5621 (5.8%)

2882 2482 (2.7%)

5831 5629

8431 (2.5%) 8439 (1.9%) 8429

8421

8465

2008

6514 (1.7%) 2666 (1.3%) 2651 (1.3%) 6517

EXPORT TREEMAP

7224 (6.1%) Wheeled tractors

7821 (5.8%) Trucks & vans

6544

2890 5225 8219 2665 (6.7%) (1.4%)

6259 6770 6931

5922 (1.5%)

6114 (1.1%)

0224 6342

2471

7752

6732 6618

6416

6351 6643

5981

7832 (2.1%) 7234 7491 7831 7783 7212 7132 7361 5623 (9%)

0011 0372 (0.97%) (0.77%) 2631 5823 (2.2%) 3224 0546 2820 0579 2672

7832 (2.2%) Tractors for semi-trailers

7132 (0.98%) Internal combustion engines 7822 for motor vehicles

7212 (1.3%) Harvesting & threshing machines 7234 (1%) Construction & mining 7442machinery7831

6940

6259 (2.1%) Other tires 6931 articles (1.2%)

8219 (2.3%)

6252 6644 6633 6770 7711 6624 2482 6353 6251 6572 (1.3%) 6342 7611 8710 7162 7758 (0.85%) 6973 7861 6940 7422 8124 (1%) (0.98%) 6725 7852 6652 6415 5621 5334 6419 6546 0224 (1.3%) 0230 2665 (1.7%) (1.5%) 5922 0240 0113 0251 6114 5823 5831 (1.7%) 5156 (0.95%) (1.2%) 3352 6651 0111

8431 8510 (1.2%) (1.1%) 8465 8459 6514 (1.8%) 6531 (1.1%) 2666

6522

6517 8931

6544 1124

0620 0612 (1.7%)

1123

6732 (4.3%) Iron/steel rods

7731 (1.1%) Electric wire

6624

6973

6633 (0.99%) 7861 6770 (1.1%) 7711 Not insulated iron/steel wire 6725 (2.9%) Iron/steel billets

6252

6644

8219 (2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

7752 (1.9%) Refrigerators & freezers

6353

8211

0240 (2.5%) Cheese & curd

0224 (2.3%) 6514 Preserved, (0.78%) concentrated or sweetened milk & 2666 cream

5989 (2.2%) Chemical products

0230 (1.2%) Butter 5922

0223

6359

6416

2472

2471

6996 6911

7188

6343 6531

8465

3413 (1.6%) liquified hydrocarbons

2783

5156 (0.86%)

6419

5831 (0.97%) Polyethylene

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

6931 6259 7752 (3.1%) 6732 (1.5%) (2.6%)

Total Exports: 32.96 B / 15.56 T (0.21%) Total Exports: 32.96 B / 15.56 T (0.21%)

7431 5623 (20%) Potassic fertilizers

Tobacco

Total Exports: 6.25 B / 5.90 T (0.11%)

7224 (4%)

5138 (1.5%) 8720 5148

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 6.25 b / 5.90 T (0.11%)

7821 (7.4%)

7224 (7.2%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 942.42 M / 4.30 t (0.02%)

5623 (13%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,409 / (46/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (24/6)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 61 B / (65/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,277 / (61/16)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 9.7 M / (74/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 33 B / (58/11)

0111 (1.4%)

6546 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0113

0371

5823

0149 0142

2665 (0.73%)

0612 (0.96%) Refined sugar 8931 (1%)

6114

116 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

belgium ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.085 / (22/11)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.86% / (97/10)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-0.5 0.59

0.6

0.61

0.62

0.63

0.64

-0.05

0.65

-0.04

2008

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

45 k 36 k 27 k 18 k 9k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 117

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

6746 (4.6%)

7810 (9.7%)

8822 (2.4%)

5155

6749 (1.2%) 6747

6770 (1.6%)

6727 (1.3%) 6745 6821 (7.5%)

2008

6672 (6.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

5629 (1.2%) 5232

3345

5622 2733 6842 (1.3%)

6644

6512 (2.4%) 0113

6998

2682 2686 0224 6851 6861 6811 6522 6517 8472 (0.92%) 6519 (0.93%) 6584 2651 6612

6911 6633 6924 6412

0980 6935 2820 2926 6651 6932

0482

7821 (1.5%)

5113

5156

6733 (1.3%) 6744 (1%) 6822 (1.2%) 6725

7842 8121

8822 (1.4%) 2331

5417 (1.4%) 5148 5824

8720 (1.3%) Medical 8822 instruments N.E.S.

5148 (1.7%) Other nitrogen-function compounds

5829

5331

5146

5161

5839

7611

6644

7781

8939 5831 (1.8%)

6573

2665

5335

5137

5111

5145

7810 (9.1%) Cars

7821 (1.1%)

8996

0111 0149

5832 (1%) 5834

5629

Mining

Oil

Coal

0484

0011 6595 (1.6%) 5823

5621 5913 5833

7832 (0.8%)

6514 6516 6539 6594 6596 8423

5123

7431

6749 (1.6%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

6746 (1.1%)

6822

6744 (0.98%)

6733

7784

7783 7842

6727 (1.8%) Iron/steel coils

7493

7234 (1.1%)

7851 7781

2331

5417 (12%) Medicaments

7436 5831 (1.9%) Polyethylene

6672 (4.5%) Not mounted diamonds

6954

8124

3414 (2.6%) petroleum gases

6842 (0.7%)

6428

8510 (1.1%) Footwear

6911 5832

6812

5913

8423

3352 0730

5419

5621

5334

5629

0546

8931

6421

2820 1123

0980 0579

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6595

0113 (0.52%)

5121

0585 0484

8310

6821 5833

5542

8219 (0.81%) 6911 8211 3510 6343 6633 6924 6649 6412 8960

6821 6861 5225 (0.9%) 0113 0224 0230 0730

5232

0819

6842 (1.6%)

6745

6770 6931

5542 8921

5839 5989

5824

5989 (1.6%) Chemical products

5530 (0.59%)

Precious Stones

6746 6749 6672 (8.4%) (1.9%)

Total Exports: 477.19 B / 15.56 T (3.07%) Total Exports: 477.19 B / 15.56 T (3.07%)

5156 (1.8%) 5416 (1.8%) Heterocyclic Glycosides & compound; nucleic vaccines acids

8939

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Total Exports: 93.29 B / 2.79 T (3.34%)

6727 (2.2%)

7234 7783 (1.3%) 7449 7431 7493

6418

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Cereals & veg. oils

Total Exports: 93.29 b / 2.79 T (3.34%)

6618

0114 0545 0730 6130 0565 0484

0013

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008 . Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

7810 (13%)

6732 (4%)

5137 6419 5542 5621 6649 (0.85%) 6424 0819 6643 8922 5335

6725 6731 (1.4%) 8946 7831 7212 6783

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

1988

Total Exports: 7.88 b / 228.33 B (3.45%) Total Exports: 7.88 B / 228.33 B (3.45%)

6733 (4.9%)

6822 (2.4%)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 44,544 / (4/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 94 % (6/1)

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 505 B / (20/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 47,194 / (14/9)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (66/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 477 B / (8/5)

8928

0224

0573

118 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bolivia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.879 / (101/20)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.03% / (89/19)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

710 568 426 284 142 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 119

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 135.17 M / 228.33 B (0.06%)

2879 (14%)

0711

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 135.17 M / 228.33 B (0.06%)

2876 (50%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 714 / (87/17) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 42 % (42/4)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 17 B / (99/18) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,720 / (96/20)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 9.7 M / (73/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 6.9 B / (88/12)

Total Exports: 578.38 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

3414 (41%)

Total Exports: 578.38 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2875 (10%)

2876 (5.8%)

0711 (3.7%)

0813 (1.3%) 2874 (2.2%)

0612 (1.7%)

2222 0577 (1.3%) 2320

6871 (7.3%)

2871 (4.1%) 0612 3330 (13%)

9710 (9.1%)

0577

2879 (4.2%) 2483 (4%)

6118 2874 (7.4%)

2875 (2.2%) 6872

6116 6114

2120

2111

2890 (2.6%) 2741

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

3414 (50%) petroleum gases

Total Exports: 6.92 B / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 6.92 B / 15.56 T (0.04%) 2875 (12%) Zinc

0813 (4.6%) Oilcake

4232 (2.7%) Soya bean oil

4236 (1.8%) Sunflower seed oil

2222 2874 (2.7%) Lead ore

2890 (8%) Ores and precious metals

2876 (0.87%) Tin

9710 (2.2%) Gold, non-monetary

8973 (1.1%) Precious jewellery

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2239 2224

0577 (1.4%) Edible nuts

0612

0542

0711 6871 (3.7%) Unwrought tin & alloys

2483 (0.87%)

6534 6513

5121

120 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bosnia and herzegovina ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.597 / (38/12)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.59% / (8/4)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.005

Distance

2008

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.3 k 1k 780 520 260 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 121

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 22.38 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)

8510 (5.7%)

8946 (6.1%)

7783 (3.9%)

7436 (5.8%)

7493 (1.8%)

6716 (2.1%)

8435 (2.3%)

8434 (3.1%)

8211 (2.3%) 8451 8424 8462 (1%) 8452 8481 2483 (1.9%) 8459

6516 (2.3%)

2008

6513 (1.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

8441 (2.2%)

6589 6521 6517 6536

8219 (1.2%)

8922 (5%)

6841 (19%)

2873

6732 (1.6%)

6911 2471 6341

3510 (1.5%)

6353 2450

2472 1121 (3%) 6841 (1.2%) 2783

6911 6842

2882 2924 (2.4%)

8510 (6.7%)

0118

6123 (3%)

5225 3223 2882

8424 8429 8431 (1.5%) (1.4%) 8462

6954 (1%) 7436

8423 8421 8451 8422 (1.1%) 8465 8481 8459 (0.83%)

8439 (3%)

0819 (1.7%)

2783 8946 7783 2111 (2.8%) 7499 6940

6716 (1.9%) 6783 6770

0484 5232 0561 6935 1212

6733

Total Exports: 5.06 B / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 5.06 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

3510 (6.1%) Electric current

6911 (3.1%) Iron/steel structures

2482 (2.2%) Worked wood of coniferous

2483 (3%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

8219 (2.1%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6732 (3.2%) Iron/steel rods

6841 (8.2%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

7139 (3.9%) Piston engines parts N.E.S.

6991 (0.69%)

8211 (5.3%) Chairs & seats 6842 (1.7%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 7731 (1.1%) Electric wire

2882 (1.2%) Other non-ferrous base metals

6353 (1.4%)

6912

7752

7491

6417

6731 (2.5%) Iron/steel wire rod

7449

8439 (1%) Other women outerwear

6997 8212 2450

3232 (3.9%) Coke & semi-coke of coal

2460 2873 (2.6%) Aluminium ore

6794 2815 (1%) Not agglomerated iron ore

6783 (1.7%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes 5232 (1.1%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts 5221 (0.85%)

7924 (1.3%) 6770 Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

8939 6424 (0.98%) Miscellaneous articles of 5621 5138 plastic 6935 (2.2%) Gauze & 2820 (0.98%) netting

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8510 (4.3%) Footwear

6123 (1.9%) Non-metal & non-abestos footwear material

7169

7239

6428

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

8219 (2.4%)

6733

6341

6652 (3.1%)

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 915.09 M / 5.90 T (0.02%)

8211 (4.8%)

7643 (1.7%)

7428 7832 7416

Fruit

Total Exports: 915.09 M / 5.90 T (0.02%)

2482 (5.3%) 6123 (3.9%) 8431 (3.6%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

2483 (9%)

6822 (2.6%)

7284 (1.7%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 22.38 M / 4.30 B (0.001%)

8439 (12%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Leather

Petrochemicals

Milk & cheese

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,341 / (74/21) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (73/18)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 19 B / (96/20) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,906 / (68/18)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.8 M / (107/20) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 B / (95/21)

2111

8423 8431

6584 8424 6129

0223

0149

6114 0484

8931

4236

122 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

botswana ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.620 / (94/9)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.89% / (94/17)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

-1

-2

Distance

2008

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

3k 2.4 k 1.8 k 1.2 k 600 0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 123

2001

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.53 B / 5.90 T (0.04%)

2871 0111

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2005

Total Exports: 2.53 M / 5.90 B (0.04%)

6672 (88%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,582 / (54/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 37 % (54/11)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 14 B / (105/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 7,050 / (56/3)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.9 M / (123/24) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5 B / (97/11)

Total Exports: 4.43 M / 9.84 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 4.43 B / 9.84 T (0.05%)

6672 (78%)

2871 (11%)

8451 (1.8%) 8435 8439 8423 8459

2111

7832 (1.8%)

7832

0111 (1.7%)

5232

2783

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

8462

9710

2783

5232 0620

Total Exports: 4.96 B / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.96 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

6672 (67%) Not mounted diamonds

2872 (16%) Nickel

8451 (1.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8439 (1.1%)

8459

8423

8463

8435

8441 0111 (2%) Bovine meat

2871 (3.4%) Copper

9710 (2.2%) Gold, 7234 non-monetary (0.5%) 7832 5232

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7861

124 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

brazil ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.244 / (52/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.73% / (48/8)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3 Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

3 2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.015

Distance

2008

0.02

0.025

0.03

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1k 800 600 400 200 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 125

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.17 B / 228.33 B (0.95%)

2631 (8.1%)

0440 (3.7%)

0577 (1.2%) 2654 (1.2%) 0422

0813 (2.2%)

0612

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7849 (2.5%) Other vehicles parts

7821 (1.6%)

7132

7431 (0.61%) 7162 (0.6%)

0149 0111

2681

0115

2120

0723 0611 (1.8%) (1.5%)

0712 (1.3%) 4314 0573 0585

7234 (1.2%) Construction & mining machinery

6725 (2.9%) Iron/steel billets

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fruit

2815 (5.5%)

2816 (2.4%)

2517 (2%)

2873 2222 (3.1%)

6725 (3.2%)

6673

4232 1212 (1.7%) 0723 0577 (0.88%) 0721 0611 0811 8510 (4.8%) 6727 (1.7%) 6712 (1.5%)

2879 6725

6732 (1.1%) 2483

6841 (3.7%)

6716 (1.4%) 6746 (1.3%) 6744 (1.4%) 6724

6712 (2.2%) Pig & cast iron

6412 6415

6745

6513 6871

7821 (1.9%) 6731 7431 6521

7224 6251 7842

7139

7259 7138

7132

6747 7621 2814

0111 (1.4%)

6252 7923 0114

0149 6114 (1.2%) 2919 0360

6342

0712 (1.1%) 5831 (0.88%)

0585 (4.7%)

2815 (7.9%) Not agglomerated iron ore

0114 (4.3%) Poultry meat

6716 (1.6%) Ferro-alloys 0111 (2.9%) Bovine meat 7924 (3.1%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

7212

7842

7923 0813 (3.1%) Oilcake

7643 (1.6%) Television & radio transmitters

2816 (3.9%) Agglomerated iron ore

7938 (1.1%) 6252 Special floating structures

6731

2222 (7.8%) Soya beans

Total Exports: 37.39 B / 2.79 T (1.34%)

0711 (8.6%)

Total Exports: 198.08 B / 15.56 T (1.27%) Total Exports: 198.08 B / 15.56 T (1.27%)

7841 7169

Total Exports: 37.39 b / 2.79 T (1.34%)

6649

2877 (1.7%)

5513

7139 (1.2%) Piston engines parts N.E.S. 7832

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

6413 2472

4245 (2%)

2222

EXPORT TREEMAP

0813 (8.2%)

2482 (4.6%)

0360

0721 (2.7%)

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 2.17 b / 228.33 B (0.95%)

0711 (47%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,031 / (77/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (120/20)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 1.7 T / (9/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,609 / (50/6)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 192 M / (5/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 198 B / (21/2)

0711 (3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

0612 (1.3%) Refined sugar

2877 6841 (1.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 2517 (2.7%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate

0611 (2.6%) Raw 4232 (1.9%) Soya bean oil sugar beet & cane

0440 (1%)

1212 (1.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

2631

2873 (1.3%) Aluminium ore

2782

6415

2871 (0.85%) Copper 5112

0149 (1.7%) Other 0113 (0.97%) prepared or preserved meat & entrails 6114 (1.3%) Bovine & equine leather

0224

5161

0585 (1.5%) 5121 (1.8%) Fruit or Acyclic alcohols vegetable juices & derivatives

5221

8510 (1.3%) Footwear

5146 0712

2483 (0.65%)

6353 6624

6342

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5831

5629

6613

126 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

bulgaria ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.587 / (40/14)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.30% / (23/9)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

1.5

0.5

-0.5

-0.5 0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

Distance

2008

Opportunity Gain

15 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

3k 2.4 k 1.8 k 1.2 k 600 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 127

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

0113 (3.9%)

0111 0240 0565 (4.4%) (2.1%)

0589 (2.2%)

6861 (4.1%)

6811 (1.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0012 (5%)

0114 (2.1%)

0118 0913 0015 0013

0112 0440 (4%)

4236 (2.8%)

0544 (2.7%)

0230 0585 0561 (0.96%) (0.9%) 5621 (6.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7492 (1.4%) Valves

6725 (4.5%)

0542 6727 (1.3%)

7841 (6.4%)

7721 (2%)

5621 (4.1%)

5417 (1.6%)

7361 (1.9%) 7442 (6.7%) 6612 6522 (1.3%)

5148 5232 (0.98%) (1.3%) 5169 5413

7915 (1.2%)

6712 6716 2483 5224 7781

7522 (2.1%) 2519

2665 (1.4%)

7511

7528 (1.6%)

7512 8983 7525

7781

7518

7239

7441

6821 (12%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

8459 (2%) Other knitted outerwear

7361

7721 (1.3%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

8439 (1.4%)

7188 (1.1%)

8451 (0.92%)

6822 (2.4%) 6744 (2.2%) Worked copper & Iron/steel copper alloys >=4.75mm tick sheets

8510

0545 (1%) 0565

0579

5121 8421 (1%)

8435 8431 8459

8441 2882

8462 6861 6821

6851 8219

8998 2820

3510

7711

6732 (2.2%) Iron/steel rods

8462 (1%)

2224 (2%) Sunflower seeds 8463 4236

8424

6851 (1.1%)

2882 (0.59%)

7731 (1.4%) Electric wire

8211 (0.75%)

7752 (1.1%)

8219 (0.88%)

6861 (1.3%) 2890 Unwrought zinc & alloys 6343

6652

6514

8310

6911

6413

5832

8212 2517

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0612

6516 8745 (0.82%)

0484 (1%)

5148

1121

8822 7852

1211 (1.2%) Unstripped tobacco

8472

5232 (1.3%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts 5622 5222 5831 (0.61%)

2226

8434

8422 (0.64%)

2871

8122 6842 (1.7%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

0412 (2.8%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

0430 (0.78%)

6123 (0.65%) 7611 (0.83%) Color T.V.

8431 (1.1%) 8423 (1.1%)

8435

7781 (1.1%)

6783

3510 (3.6%) Electric current

7449 7224 7784 5112 2331 5232 (1.2%) (1.2%) 5148 7188 (1.7%) 7783 0012 0011 0240 (2.8%) (0.87%) 6991 0118 7452 7367 0360 0251 7591 6727 (2.7%) 6744 0616 0342 1211 1223 0575 (2.3%) (1.5%) 6725 (2.6%) 6749 5513 7521 1222 (1.1%)

1121 (3.2%)

Total Exports: 22.57 B / 15.56 T (0.15%) Total Exports: 22.57 B / 15.56 T (0.15%)

7442

6727 (0.98%) Iron/steel coils

Mining

Total Exports: 2.29 B / 2.79 T (0.08%)

7441 (7%)

6821 (2.9%)

2613 (1.2%)

2924 0751 0615 (1.1%) 0541 4232 (1.8%) 5513 (1.6%) 2223 0575

2008

6851 (2.3%) 0583 0579 (0.84%) 1121 0546 6841 (1.8%)

Oil

Total Exports: 2.29 b / 2.79 T (0.08%)

0819 5530 0545 (1.7%)

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 298.17 M / 228.33 B (0.13%) Total Exports: 298.17 M / 228.33 B (0.13%)

0011 (5.2%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,965 / (51/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 44 % (38/11)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 52 B / (71/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,798 / (58/14)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 7.6 M / (79/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 23 B / (65/14)

5530 (0.67%) 0819

8931 (0.56%) 0589 0586

0114

2820 (2%) Iron & steel waste

5621 0240

0565

6512 (0.71%)

6651 (0.67%)

128 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

cambodia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.702 / (98/13)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.66% / (51/9)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

300 240 180 120 60 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 129

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 71.37 M / 228.33 B (0.03%)

2320 (24%)

0011 (4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 8.46 M / 2.79 T (0.0003%) Total Exports: 8.46 M / 2.79 T (0.0003%)

2320 (39%)

2222 (25%)

2472 (13%)

2111 2471 (2.5%)

0812 (2.9%)

2929 (2.4%)

2234 (8.2%)

2472 0440 (4.7%) (1.3%)

2239 (1.4%)

0819 (2.7%)

0751 (2.5%) 0421

2008

2223

EXPORT TREEMAP

2238 (1.7%)

0577 (2.1%)

2924 (0.93%)

2224

2221 (1.6%) 2929 (2.7%) 8921

Total Exports: 4.38 B / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.38 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

8459 (33%) Other knitted outerwear

8451 (17%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

8464 (6.9%) null

8960 (3.6%)

8462 (3.5%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8928 (21%) Printed matter N.E.S.

8429 (2.8%) Other men outerwear

8510 (2.1%) Footwear 8452 (3.7%) Knitted women's suits & dresses 8463 (1.8%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8439 (0.67%)

2733 (2.8%) Non metal-bearing sands

7852 (1.1%) 2320 (0.73%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 71.37 M / 228.33 B (0.03%)

0422 (46%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 301 / (106/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 42 % (40/8)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 10 B / (110/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 710 / (117/16)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 15 M / (57/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.4 B / (102/14)

130 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

cameroon ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.403 / (121/20)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.20% / (117/20)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

330 264 198 132 66 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 131

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 206.32 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

0711 (28%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 1.67 b / 2.79 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 1.67 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

3330 (42%)

2472 (8.5%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 206.32 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

0721 (23%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 267 / (108/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (92/18)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 24 B / (89/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,243 / (100/10)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 19 M / (51/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 B / (94/9)

0721 (13%)

0711 (13%)

6842 2483 2481 6349 6341

0723 (2.4%)

6841 (9.3%) 0723 (7.5%)

2320 (2.4%)

0573 (4.4%)

4242 (0.93%) 2472 (8.7%)

2232 (2.1%)

2320 (2.1%) 4242

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (56%) Crude petroleum

0573 (1.4%)

2631 (4.9%)

2631

1211

2483 (2.8%)

6521

2223 2221 0741

0730 (1.2%)

8510 (0.99%)

6841 (6.6%)

6341 (1.2%)

2471 0360

Total Exports: 5.09 B / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 5.09 B / 15.56 T (0.03%) 0573 (7.4%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

0721 (7.3%) Raw & roasted coffee 0711 beans

2631

2320 (2.8%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

0723 (1.1%) Cocoa butter & paste

2483 (11%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

2472 (3.3%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous

6341 (1.5%) NULL 6841 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2820

0579 0565

132 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

canada ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.571 / (41/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.67% / (104/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.005

0.01

Distance

2008

0.015

0.02

0.025

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 133

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 13.14 B / 228.33 B (5.75%)

6411 (12%)

6831 (3.1%)

6841 (4.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 112.98 B / 2.79 T (4.04%)

7810 (17%)

6411 (6.7%)

2517 (5.7%)

6841 (3.2%)

6831 (1.3%) 2741 2872 2784

2875 2882

2517 (5.4%) 7842 (6.5%)

6413 6412 2482 (8.4%)

7212 (1.7%) 6822 (1%)

6783

2008

6994

6359 2483

7928 (1.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2741

2518 2516 6821 (3.3%)

7821 (3.4%)

5623 (1.2%)

2875 (1.3%)

2874

2331 0360 2120 0430

0113

0350 2919 2234

7849 (7%)

7132 (1.7%)

5225

6861 2879 (1%) 5629 5221 1124 (1.9%)

0011

6412 (1.2%)

6851

2871 (1.5%)

0460

7821 (5.5%)

7929 (1.3%) 7149 7148

7841

2518 6413

2482 (6%)

7139

7831

7832 6251

6991

7641 6745 (0.91%)

5623 (1.5%)

3222 (2.4%) 2871 (1%)

2471 6997

5112 5249

0412 (2.4%)

6861 2815 3414 (2.3%)

2226

0360

0411

0344

6811 9710 5225 (0.88%) 5121

7810 (10%) Cars

7849 (3.3%) Other vehicles parts

7821

7924 (1.1%)

7923

7832

2482 (1.5%) Worked wood of coniferous

3414 (9.6%) petroleum gases

6842

2741 (0.59%)

6841 (2.2%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

6821 (0.86%) 2871 (0.54%)

6911

5623 (1.9%) Potassic fertilizers

2816

9710 (2.6%) Gold, non-monetary

8211

3510 (1.1%)

8219

7499

6861

6899

7144 6783

7442

2517 (1.5%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate

0412 (1.5%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 2226 (1.1%)

6353

6411 (1.3%) Newsprint

6428

2519

6343

6415

6413

8931

0980

0730

5839 (0.83%)

8939 (0.65%)

0484 0546

5112

5831 (0.93%) Polyethylene

3222 (1.8%) Other coal

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7148

7436

7239

5241 (0.59%)

1124

0371

0113

5831

7132

6831

5241 6821 (0.88%)

Total Exports: 455.73 B / 15.56 T (2.93%) Total Exports: 455.73 B / 15.56 T (2.93%)

3330 (20%) Crude petroleum

2872 (1.1%)

Mining

Total Exports: 112.98 b / 2.79 T (4.04%)

2872 (3%) 2784 (2.5%)

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). North America.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 13.14 b / 228.33 B (5.75%)

7810 (18%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 13,689 / (19/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 30 % (65/1)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 1.5 T / (11/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 45,003 / (15/2)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 33 M / (34/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 456 B / (11/2)

4239

0542

0411

0113 (0.64%) 0011 0360 (0.58%) 2820

5121

6252

0111

134 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

chile ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.312 / (78/12)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.05% / (86/18)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.01

0.02

Distance

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

4k 3.2 k 2.4 k 1.6 k 800 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 135

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

1988

Total Exports: 1.02 b / 228.33 B (0.45%) Total Exports: 1.02 B / 228.33 B (0.45%)

6821 (79%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Total Exports: 7.37 b / 2.79 T (0.26%) Total Exports: 7.37 B / 2.79 T (0.26%)

6821 (37%)

2871 0814 (2.4%)

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,957 / (44/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 39 % (50/5)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 171 B / (47/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 10,167 / (45/4)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 17 M / (53/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 67 B / (46/5)

0814 (6.7%)

0575 (6.8%)

2681 2517

0342 (1.7%) 0360 0341 0574 (3.6%) (0.78%) 0371 4111 0372 0344 0343 0542 2929

6411 (0.95%)

2712 (2.2%)

2879 0574 0575 6822 (1.6%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2482 (2.3%)

0542

2871 (9%)

2879 (1.5%)

0545 0579

2816 (1.6%)

6811 (1.1%)

2815 9710 (1.6%) (0.95%)

2471 2460 2479 0579 (3.3%) 1121 (1.6%) 0545 2472

2517 (4.5%)

6411

5221

6412

2875

2712 6822 5629

Total Exports: 66.48 B / 15.56 T (0.43%) Total Exports: 66.48 B / 15.56 T (0.43%)

6821 (38%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

2871 (18%) Copper

0342 (2.2%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

0344

0343 (0.95%)

0372

0814 (0.85%)

0341

2517 (4.3%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate

2482 (1.6%) Worked wood of coniferous

0113 (0.57%)

6342

0980 (0.59%)

0575 (2.4%) Grapes & raisins

0586 0579 (2.3%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0574 (1.1%)

2879 (4.1%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6716 (1.4%) Ferro-alloys 5225

6811

2816

2815

2882

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2460

6416 (0.52%)

1121 (2.3%) Wine

9710

0819

6822

6418

5232

5221 (0.64%)

136 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

china ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.894 / (29/5)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 4.32% / (1/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

-0.5

1.5

0.5

-0.5

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

-0.04

-0.03

Distance

2008

-0.02

-0.01

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.1 k 880 660 440 220 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 137

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.57 B / 228.33 B (0.69%)

2222 (5.2%)

5513

0013 (2.9%)

0113 2919 (4.3%)

2114

EXPORT TREEMAP

0577 (1.7%)

2221 (1.3%)

0741 (1.6%)

0421 (1.2%)

6522 (5.7%)

2924 (1.8%) 0542 (1%)

8451 (2.8%)

6584 8942 (6.6%)

2235 (0.82%) 4233 0612 (1.4%) 0752 0541 2613 (3.7%) 6584 (2.5%) 6513 (1.8%)

6517

6541 (1.4%)

6511 6592

6521 (4.7%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

8997 (1.2%)

0116 0014 0114 0545 0561 0565 (1.1%) 8472 0579 0589 8471

8439 (2.6%)

6664 (0.99%) 8952

0483 0980 0121

8942

8459 (2.1%)

8462 (1.7%)

6940

8947 2783

2879

8423 (1.5%) 6521 (1.9%)

6541 6534 (1.5%)

8942 (2.3%) Toys

8710 (2.1%) Optical instruments

7758 (1.1%)

2631 (1.7%)

6940

0741

7161

0813 (1.6%)

6716 6712

8124

8442 8463 0360 (2.3%)

2919

6592 6511 0341 6516 8851 8994 6513 2613 6544 (1.3%) 6519 6953 6664

6522 (1.8%)

2924

7711

2683

8510

7649 (3.7%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

8472

7638 7611 8482

7628 7757 8852 7512

8441

8424 8435 6552 8421

8429 (1.6%)

7622 (1.6%)

8481 8997 8431

6991 7243

6612 2789 5981 6871 8999 (0.91%) (0.93%) (1.7%) 0819 5232

Total Exports: 1.43 t / 15.56 T (9.2%)

7522 (6.6%) Digital data processing machines

2683 (0.99%)

6512 8212 5981

7643 (3.4%) Television & radio transmitters

7599 (2.8%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7758 (1%) 7492 Electro-thermal (0.86%) home appliances N.E.S.(0.77%) 7239 7442 7162

6991 6940

7638 (2%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 7611 (1.6%) Color T.V.

7763 (1.4%) Diodes & transistors

8510 (2.5%) Footwear

8310 (1.3%) Luggage & handbags

6584

8462 (0.84%) 8459 (1.8%) Other knitted outerwear

7415 (0.84%)

7781 (0.8%)

8124 (0.84%)

7641 (0.8%)

6782 6251

6252

6744

8451 (1.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8219 (1.2%)

8463

6552

6716 (0.52%)

6746

6783

6733

7932 (1.5%) Ships & boats

8439 (1.3%) Other women outerwear

Mining

3222 5225 0546 0545 (0.89%) 6899 2879 0589 5221 6871 8999 (1.4%) 5413

8429

8211

6589

6514

8431 8452 7731 (1%)

6911 (0.81%)

8212

8939 5155 (0.85%) Miscellaneous articles 6573 of plastic

7752

3232 (0.52%)

6624 6732

6974 6953

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6522 (0.8%) 6531 (0.56%)

8423

8472

7861 (0.83%)

7711

7784

0440 (0.8%) 0548

Total Exports: 1.43 T / 15.56 T (9.2%)

8947 7788 (1.1%) 7523 (0.71%) Other electrical 7757 machinery (0.59%) & equipment 7722 7642 N.E.S. 6749 (0.63%) 7782

7525 (2.8%) Control & peripheral hardware

2222

0565 (1.1%)

8997 7518 (1.3%) 7712 (1.2%)

Oil

Total Exports: 61.94 B / 2.79 T (2.22%)

8310 (3.8%) 8510 (2.9%)

0149 6130 0118 0360 (1.3%)

Coal

Total Exports: 61.94 b / 2.79 T (2.22%)

4234 4239

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 1.57 b / 228.33 B (0.69%)

0422 (9.8%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,080 / (76/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 32 % (63/10)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 4.5 T / (3/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,414 / (82/9)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 B / (1/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.4 T / (2/1)

6613

0372

7853

0344 8931

138 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

colombia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.200 / (54/5)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.02% / (36/5)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.02

0.84

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

840 672 504 336 168 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 139

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 596.39 M / 228.33 B (0.26%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2634 (2.8%)

2631 (2.1%)

6673 (2.5%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

3330 (15%)

3221 6673 (3.9%)

6812 (0.91%) 6612

2119

0360

2483

2120 6521 2671

6612 0573 (8.9%)

2927 (6%)

0611 2631 0712 (1.2%)

5913 6716 (3.3%)

6584

8921 0721

6513

0813

Coal

Total Exports: 5.56 B / 2.79 T (0.2%)

3222 (6.3%) 0611

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Total Exports: 5.56 b / 2.79 T (0.2%)

0711 (39%)

0573 (5.5%) 3330 (8.2%)

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 596.39 m / 228.33 B (0.26%)

0711 (67%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 838 / (82/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 16 % (114/18)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 243 B / (37/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,389 / (64/11)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 45 M / (27/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 38 B / (57/6)

0360 6114

5833

5834

Total Exports: 37.70 b / 15.56 T (0.24%) Total Exports: 37.70 B / 15.56 T (0.24%)

3330 (31%) Crude petroleum

0711 (6.3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

5530 (1.2%) Perfumery & cosmetics

5334

8921

2927 (3.6%) Flora

0573 (2.2%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

5834 (1.2%) Polyvinyl chloride 0712 (0.64%)

4242 (1.1%)

5832 (1%) Polypropylene

5541 5913

5912 6552 (0.78%)

3222 (15%) Other coal

9710 (3.4%) Gold, non-monetary

8423

6123

6114 (1.1%) Bovine & equine leather

6428 (0.87%) Articles of paper pulp 6624 N.E.S.

0620 (0.77%) Sugar confectionary 8931 (not chocolate) 0484

8465

8462

6716 (2.8%) Ferro-alloys 2890

0111 (2.5%) Bovine meat

6612

2882 (0.96%) Other non-ferrous * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7499 6954

7752

7711 (0.51%) 6252

6415

5514

140 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

congo republic ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.707 / (125/23)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.65% / (125/23)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.975

0.98

0.985

-0.02

0.99

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

3.2 k 2.5 k 1.9 k 1.2 k 640 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 141

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 96.97 M / 228.33 B (0.04%)

2771 (5.1%)

6821 (12%)

6861 (4.8%)

2472 (30%)

6341 (7.3%)

3330 (71%)

0711 (1.3%)

0611 (2%)

0721 (1.1%) 6822 2232 4242

0615 0813

2634

Total Exports: 959.93 m / 2.79 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 959.93 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

6672 (7.3%)

2877 (3%)

2119 (0.99%)

2472 (11%)

6341 (2.7%)

0611

Total Exports: 11.54 b / 15.56 T (0.07%) Total Exports: 11.54 B / 15.56 T (0.07%)

3330 (87%) Crude petroleum

2871 (3%) Copper

6821 (2%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

2879 (1.8%) Other non-ferrous base metals 2876 (1.1%) Tin

6672 (0.75%) 6899 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Fish & Seafood

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

2483 (1.3%) 0612 (5.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

1988

Total Exports: 96.97 m / 228.33 B (0.04%)

6672 (22%)

2008

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,181 / (49/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 98 % (5/2)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 12 B / (109/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,261 / (84/7)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.6 M / (109/21) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 12 B / (75/4)

2479 (1.2%) 2483 (0.87%) 2911 (0.81%)

142 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

costa rica ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.278 / (49/3)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.97% / (38/6)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.79

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.015

Distance

2008

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

2.2 k 1.7 k 1.3 k 880 440 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 143

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 194.85 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

0573 (31%)

7781 0721

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

0611

2925

6749 (1.1%)

Total Exports: 1.55 b / 2.79 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 1.55 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

2926 8423 (3.8%) (2.1%)

8465 (3%) 8439 (2.5%)

2927 8462 8441 (1.8%) (1.8%) (1.6%)

8434 8424 8431 8421 8463 0579 (3.2%) 0589

8435 0111 (4.3%)

6421

0711 (24%)

8472 (0.99%) 8471 6341 6998

0545 6428 8973

7731

0360 0341 (1.6%) (1.2%)

7723 (0.79%)

8972

Total Exports: 9.76 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.76 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)

7599 (12%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7721 (1.6%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

0579 (7.6%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

8720 (7.1%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

6251 (1.3%) Tires & pneumatic for cars 6289

7764 (12%) Electronic microcircuits

7758 8812

6749

0980 (3.6%) Edible products N.E.S.

8931 (0.94%)

7131

0484

0583

8996 (3.1%) Orthopaedic appliances

5417 (3.7%) Medicaments

6421 6252 0573 (8.1%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

4242 (1.6%) Palm oil

0585 (1.5%) Fruit or vegetable juices

0819

7731 (1.9%) Electric 6732 (0.77%) wire

0343

6842 (0.74%)

0371 0111

2926 (0.96%) Live plants

0611

0548 (1.1%)

6428 (1.3%) Articles of paper pulp N.E.S.

5334

6996

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5834

5542

0711 (3.9%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

2927 (1.3%) Flora

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

0573 (35%)

0111 (7.2%)

0360 5417 5530 0914 (1.2%) 5629 0980 5621 0620

0612 (4.6%)

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 194.85 m / 228.33 B (0.09%)

0711 (38%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,160 / (59/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 33 % (60/7)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 30 B / (83/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,564 / (60/9)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.5 M / (99/17) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.8 B / (79/10)

8442 (0.83%)

0223

8462 (0.63%) 6651 (0.73%)

5629 8423

144 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

côte d’ivoire ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.868 / (99/11)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.18% / (76/12)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.01

0.94

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1k 800 600 400 200 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 145

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 506.69 M / 228.33 B (0.22%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Total Exports: 2.37 b / 2.79 T (0.08%) Total Exports: 2.37 B / 2.79 T (0.08%)

0721 (25%)

2472 (28%)

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 506.69 m / 228.33 B (0.22%)

0711 (32%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 479 / (97/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 42 % (41/8)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 23 B / (91/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,137 / (105/13)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 21 M / (47/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.9 B / (77/5)

0711 (21%)

2483 (7.8%)

2472 (4.2%)

6341 (1.9%) 0371 (4.1%) 0721 (16%)

0579 (4.2%)

0573 (5.5%)

0723 (5.6%) 2483 (3.8%)

0723 (4.1%)

0589 (1.7%) 0579

2320 (3.3%)

0573 (2.5%) 0342

6341

4242 (1.1%)

0712 2877

0722 4244

2631 (5.1%)

6672 (3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0730 0712 (2.4%)

6521 (0.98%) 6522

4243

2008

2481 2479

Total Exports: 9.87 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.87 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)

0721 (24%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

3330 (21%) Crude petroleum

6612

9710

0723 (9.6%) Cocoa butter & paste

2320 (6.7%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

0573 (1.6%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains 4242 (1.5%) Palm oil

0722 (0.83%)

0577 (2.4%) Edible nuts

2631 (1.1%) Raw cotton

0711 (1.8%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

4244

5530 (2%) Perfumery & cosmetics

5541 (1.2%) Soaps

0730 (2.2%) Chocolate

0980 (0.86%) 8931

0579

0712 (0.97%) 0819 (1.5%) Animal feed and food waste 2483 (2.9%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

5629 6341 (1%)

7938 (1.3%)

0371 (2.4%) Fish N.E.S.

2472 7921 (1.2%)

1223

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2479

9510 (0.64%)

0483

6954

146 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

croatia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.989 / (26/7)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.92% / (40/14)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

-15

2008

-10

-5

Opportunity Gain

Distance

5 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

3.2 k 2.5 k 1.9 k 1.2 k 640 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 147

1992

EXPORT TREEMAP

8423 (2.4%)

8462 (1.6%)

8439 (2.3%)

7932 (10%)

5417

8451 8429 8441 8435 6123 (2.9%) 8431 (2.4%)

8434 8459 6584 8997 8481 7731 6842 (1.6%) (1.5%)

8433

7721 (1.3%)

8743

7162

6716

6415 0980 (2%)

5833 (2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6342 8122

0484

Total Exports: 4.35 B / 5.90 T (0.07%)

7932 (18%)

8743 7162 2483 (3.2%) (0.97%) 7239

6842 (1.9%)

8211 (1.9%)

5413 (2.4%)

0819 3345 5621

8510 (3.1%) 8451 (2.6%)

8462

8422

6651 8928 0111 0149 0341 0371 (0.91%)

8424 (1.5%)

6114

6123 (1.5%)

8439 8463

8922 5542

6782 7758

5157 5629 (1.2%) 6612 3413 2882 6998 (1.4%) 3354 3232

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Total Exports: 4.35 b / 5.90 T (0.07%)

5411

0114

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

8922

5413 5113

8942 7712

7758

6421 8931 8219 (2%) 2472 6341 6997 6624 2512 6911

2008

Animal Fibers

5831 (2.4%) 5834 (1.6%)

8422 (1.3%)

8424 (3%)

8211 (2.3%)

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

2001

Total Exports: 3.29 b / 4.30 t (0.08%) Total Exports: 3.29 B / 4.30 T (0.08%)

8510 (4.8%)

2483 (4.4%)

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,203 / (48/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (98/23)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 69 B / (63/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 15,637 / (36/5)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.4 M / (101/18) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 14 B / (73/15)

5417 (2.2%) 7731 8219 6911 2472 6341 (1.5%) 7641 7768 5831 (1.8%) 5621 6353 (1.3%) (1.1%) 6997 6624 5629 7711 (1.6%) 5113 6415 2512 3414 (1.9%) 6612 (2%) 1222 (2.2%) 0412 8431 8423 0612 3413 (1.4%) 8459 6998 2734 0341 6114 5833 8434 8481 (1.1%) 2111 0980 0484 6584 8432 0371 (1.7%) 8931 2820 8435 0149 6421 6635 8465

Total Exports: 14.18 b / 15.56 T (0.09%) Total Exports: 14.18 B / 15.56 T (0.09%)

7932 (15%) Ships & boats

7284

7239

7139

7491

5417 (2.6%) Medicaments

5530

3414 (2.8%) petroleum gases

7169 8743 (0.72%) 7212

7499

7919 6782

7162

7711 (3.2%) Electrical transformers

7931 2483 (2.8%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

7915 8211 (2.1%) Chairs & seats

6842 (2.3%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

7731 (1.3%) Electric wire

7788 7712 (0.71%) (0.94%) Other 7768 (0.64%) electrical machinery & 7763 equipment 7723 (0.73%) N.E.S.

7119

7149

8219 (1.2%) 6911 (1.1%) Furniture Iron/steel parts N.E.S. structures

6353 (0.93%)

5831 (2.1%) Polyethylene

6624

6997 (0.82%)

8510 (1.5%) Footwear

8463

6123

5621 (1.7%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

8451 (1.2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

2882 (0.87%)

2820 (1.5%) Iron & steel waste

2472 0980 (1.6%) Edible products N.E.S.

0730

1110 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6421

5833 6129 (0.81%)

0484

3510 (0.91%)

8931

1222 (0.92%)

0488

6341

2450

6612 (1.6%) Cement

6998

0612 (1.6%) Refined sugar

8472 6343

5629 (1.2%)

6651 (0.71%) 8928

0341 (0.81%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding 0223 fillets

148 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

cuba ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.426 / (84/14)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.22% / (74/15)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.935

0.94

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.01

Distance

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

260 208 156 104 52 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 149

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 157.55 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

0611 (30%)

2872 (8.2%)

2871

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 157.55 m / 228.33 B (0.07%)

0612 (28%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 261 / (109/21) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 4.7 % (128/21)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 63 B / (64/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,596 / (63/10)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (65/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.9 B / (107/19)

Total Exports: 1.29 b / 2.79 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 1.29 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

0611 (50%)

0612 (5.6%)

0360 (10%)

0372 (2.5%)

2872 (4.8%)

2890 2871 (1.4%) (0.87%)

6811 5225 1221 (4.3%)

0711 (3.7%)

5121 (2.3%)

0615 0615 (11%)

0711 (4.3%)

0360 (3.1%)

0572 (1.9%)

9610 (2.1%)

0111 (2.1%)

2879 0571 (1.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

1221 (3.8%)

2820 (2.3%)

0585

7842 (1.1%)

1211 (2.4%) 6581

2008

2882

Total Exports: 2.92 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.92 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

2872 (35%) Nickel

1221 (12%) Cigars

0611 (20%) Raw sugar beet & cane

1124 (7%) Alcoholic beverages

0585

2879 (4.7%) Other non-ferrous base metals

6612 (1.8%) Cement

6724 (2.2%) Iron/steel 7272 (1.1%) Food bars processing 2882 (1.8%) machinery & Other parts N.E.S. non-ferrous base 7782 metals (0.88%) 6725 Incandescent &

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

1211 0360 (4.8%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

1222 5416 (2.4%) Glycosides & vaccines

150 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

czech republic ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.628 / (8/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.11% / (26/10)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -0.06

-0.055

Distance

2008

-0.05

-0.045

-0.04

-0.035

-0.03

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 151

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

7721 (1.7%)

7449 7224 6782 6733 (0.94%) 7758 8121 7283 7264 6785 8947 8124 7781

6954

7369 7493 7244 6732 (2.6%) 2482 (1.7%)

7162 7361 6744 (0.91%) (1.5%)

8219 2471

EXPORT TREEMAP

6746 6712 6745 6770 6259

6415 2518

6584

8439 6123

5145 5112 2671 5331 8939 5834 (1.1%) 5831 5542 5621 6573

8431 6522 (1.2%)

6521 6544

3222 (2.9%)

3232 (1.2%) 3223 (1.1%)

7493

6251

7139

7492

6647 6954

7499

7842 7169 7416 6289 7452 7244 7239

7849 (7.3%)

7611 (2.1%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

7162 7919 7361 7731 (2.4%)

6991 (1%)

6782 6731

0224 0548 (0.89%) 2882 6794 6612 0482 (0.89%) 0011 1123 6891 5121

Not classified

Total Exports: 33.38 B / 5.90 T (0.57%)

7721 (2.7%)

7783 (1.3%)

8972

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Total Exports: 33.38 b / 5.90 T (0.57%)

6658 (1.3%) 5833 6651 2820

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (11%)

5111 5311

6589 8429 8471 8435

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

6727 6725 8510 (1.6%)

6252 8981 6911 (1.1%) 6652 (1.4%) 6997

7731 8211 6353 6624 6842 6924 6973 6921 (1.5%) (1.5%) (1.4%) 6633 6351

2008

2001

Total Exports: 14.34 B / 4.30 T (0.33%)

7821 (1.2%)

7919

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 14,006 / (18/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 68 % (15/4)

Total Exports: 14.34 b / 4.30 t (0.33%)

6731 (1.9%)

7492 6991

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 216 B / (39/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 20,729 / (30/2)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Electronics

Machinery

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (68/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 146 B / (29/3)

7442 6940 7788 7522 (1.4%) 7421 (1.2%)

7781 (1.7%)

8219 (1.1%) 6732

8211 (2.2%)

6353 3510 6652 6664

2482 2471 6633

6842

6911 6997 6428 7414 (1.3%) (1.2%) 7243 6572 6359 6624 7732 7413 8939 5542 6794 (1.3%)

7369 8121 7641 7415 6770 (1.1%) 6252 6744 6733 8124

5111

6210

6415

3222 (1%) 3232

8928 6658

5831 6522

6584 6123

8931

0224 1222

8947

Total Exports: 146.09 b / 15.56 T (0.94%) Total Exports: 146.09 B / 15.56 T (0.94%)

7810 (9.4%) Cars

7849 (8.3%) Other vehicles parts

7611 (3.2%) Color T.V.

7522

7731 (2.3%) Electric wire

8211 (1.5%) Chairs & seats

3510 (1.2%)

6911 (1.2%) 7523 (2.9%) CPUs 6997 (1.1%)

7721 (2.9%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7493

7919 7783 (1.1%) Auto 7162 (1.1%) AC parts electric motors & generators 7284 (1.1%)

7492

7139

7361

7831

6289 7416

7449

6251 8121

6991

6782

7436

7842

6731

7525 (1.8%) Control & peripheral hardware

8942 (1.3%) Toys

7415 (1.3%)

7643 (1.1%) Television & radio transmitters

7161 7421 (0.95%)

7788 (0.9%)

7784

6954

7499

6793

6252

7638

7621

6259

7781

7414

7861 6359

8939 (1.3%) 5831 (0.63%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 6210 5542

7518 7648

7763 6770

7239

8219

7431

6647 6940

6353

6732

8928

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2882

6998 3222 (0.96%) Other coal

2820

6421

6744 6733

6794 (0.59%)

1222

6658 5833

0223

152 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

denmark ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.267 / (17/9)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.63% / (106/15)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

1.5

0.5

-0.025

0.7

-0.02

2008

-0.015

-0.01

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

21 k 16.8 k 12.6 k 8.4 k 4.2 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 153

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.56 B / 228.33 B (1.12%)

0113 (2.4%)

0121 (14%)

7411 (2.9%)

7283

7452

EXPORT TREEMAP

7499 (2%) 0114 (1.3%)

0111 (4.5%)

0116 7932 (4.3%)

0013 0142 0913 0230 (5.4%)

0224 (2.5%)

2008

0240 (3.1%)

2120 (2.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7492 (1.8%) Valves

0980 0484 0620 0814 1123 (1.8%) 5989 (1.4%) 5169 2925 (1.1%) 5411 8996 0350 8745 (1%) 8720 0813 5417 5335 6424 2919 (1.1%) (1.9%) 5542 0819 2929 2111 5530 5413

2926 2927 0430 0811 1222

0344 (2%)

0149 (2.6%)

8942 7781

8124 8731 (1.2%) 6341 2483 8472 (1.9%)

6998 2785

7442

7272

7283

0111 (2%)

0240 (2.5%)

7492 7452 7283 (1.7%) 7431 6991 7449 7188

7442 7416 (0.95%)

8928

7272

7429

7212

7429

8743

7493 7169 (1.3%) Parts of rotating 7449 electric plants N.E.S.

7712

7642 6744 (1%)

6991

7711

5417 (7.3%) Medicaments

0013

0149

0111

0116

5416 (1.8%) Glycosides & vaccines

8996 (1.5%) Orthopaedic appliances

5542 5334

8720 (1.2%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 5145

0240 (1.9%) Cheese & curd

0341

0360 (0.72%) 0371

2120 (1.2%) 0224

0372

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Food Processing

Garments

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

6911 (1.9%) Iron/steel structures

6649 (1.5%) Glass N.E.S.

0980 (1.9%) Edible products N.E.S.

3510 (1.1%) Electric 8211 current (0.58%)

8212 (0.54%)

7861 6353 (1.1%) (0.54%) Builders` carpentry 6428 & joinery

6997 (0.52%)

6842

0343

5922

7414

8931

6973

6912 6924

0350

0223

8510

8439

8451

2926 (0.65%)

0488

2925 0914

8744

8459 (0.56%) 8462

5311 7741

8219 (2.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

0114

5169 (1.2%)

0819

Textile & Fabrics

0360 (1.1%) 0350 0371

7212

7416

8939 (1.5%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

Not classified

0814 5169 8748 5311 5983 8219 (3.1%) 6353 (0.91%) (1.2%) 5839 7741 0342 7752 8720 5415 (0.93%) 0372 5411 0343 6912 6997 5417 8939 (1.7%) 5629 8211 2120 0224 0230 (2.8%) 6428 8212 (2%) 7414 5334 5542 6911 5911 5922 0451 8921 7422 8942 7643 8813 0121 (1.7%) 0980 0430 0412 8451 (1.5%) (1.2%) 2226 8459 8124 8983 2926 2925 6595 8931 4312 (1.3%) 7932 (3.3%) (0.94%) 8928 0484 6421 2929 0542 2882 0546 0612 1123

7932 (1.7%) Ships 0113 (4.8%) Swine meat & boats

7422 (0.85%)

7188 (1.4%) Engines & motors

0341 (1.6%)

8121

7271 6991

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 28.69 B / 2.79 T (1.03%)

0113 (6.3%)

Total Exports: 116.11 b / 15.56 T (0.75%) Total Exports: 116.11 B / 15.56 T (0.75%)

7161 (1.7%) 7452 DC motors & generators

7162 (1.6%)

7211

Fruit

Total Exports: 28.69 b / 2.79 T (1.03%)

7212 0011 (1.9%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 2.56 b / 228.33 B (1.12%)

0149 (8.1%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 21,115 / (11/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 34 % (58/10)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 341 B / (27/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 62,036 / (4/3)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 5.5 M / (92/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 116 B / (33/13)

1123

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8423

2820 (1.1%) 8928

2882

154 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

dominican republic ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.064 / (64/9)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.78% / (45/7)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

-1

-2

0.01

0.89

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

900 720 540 360 180 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 155

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 176.31 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

0711 (12%)

0721 (9.1%)

2873 (7.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 176.31 m / 228.33 B (0.08%)

0612 (57%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 581 / (92/18) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 13 % (118/19)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 46 B / (75/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,602 / (72/13)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (71/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.8 B / (92/15)

Total Exports: 1.80 b / 2.79 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 1.80 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

8423 (8.2%)

8462 (3.1%)

8465 (2.5%)

8463 (2%)

6716 (14%)

7721 (3.3%)

8435 (1.6%) 6123 (4.8%)

0611 (3.2%)

0565 (1.1%)

0619

0612 (5.5%)

0545 0111 (2.4%)

0615 (3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

8441 (1.6%)

8422 8459 8432 8481

8434

8310 8443 8442 8431 8424 8471 8433 (1.1%) 8451 8452 0711 (4.6%) 0721 (4.2%) 1211 (2.4%)

9710 (5.8%)

0565 0579 1221 (1.4%) 0545 0546 0111 (2.3%)

8973 (4.8%) 8720 (1.9%)

0615

0813

2008

8439 (3.8%)

0548

0611

0577

6831

6811

6428

6812

Total Exports: 5.78 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 5.78 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)

6716 (8.6%) Ferro-alloys

7721 (5.5%) Switchboards, 8720 (9.3%) Medical instruments N.E.S. relays & fuses

7741

1221 (5.3%) Cigars

1124 (1.7%) Alcoholic beverages

1123 7649 (2.3%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7788 (1.9%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S.

8510 (2.8%) Footwear

7599 (1%) Parts 7711 (1.1%) of cash registers & calculating machines 8451 (1.7%) 8429 (1.2%) 6521 (4.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

Other men outerwear 8462 (0.86%)

8465 (1.9%) Corsets 8463 (0.79%) 8441 8423 (1.8%) Men's trousers

8442 (1.7%) Men's underwear

0980 (1.3%)

7712 (1.4%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S.

8464 8459 (0.74%)

Unbleached cotton woven fabrics

5530 (0.7%)

8939 (0.7%)

0721 (2%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

5629 (0.8%) Fertilizers 0573 (1.4%)

0484

6732 (3%) Iron/steel rods

6428 (2.1%) Articles of paper pulp N.E.S.

0611 (1.4%) Raw sugar beet & cane 1212 (1.2%) 0460 Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0711

8933 (1.6%) 6612 (1.3%)

1222 8439

6421

0545 (0.57%)

8931 (1%)

8973 (6.5%) Precious jewellery

0579 (0.65%)

1213

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2882

2820 (1.3%) Iron & steel waste

6118

156 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ecuador ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.619 / (93/18)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.12% / (80/17)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.01

0.95

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 157

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 287.52 M / 228.33 B (0.13%)

0721 (15%)

0711 (14%)

0360

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (43%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 287.52 m / 228.33 B (0.13%)

0573 (59%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,372 / (72/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 34 % (59/6)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 55 B / (68/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,056 / (76/15)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 13 M / (59/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 19 B / (70/9)

Total Exports: 3.02 b / 2.79 T (0.11%) Total Exports: 3.02 B / 2.79 T (0.11%)

0573 (20%)

0721 (3.2%)

0711 (5.9%)

0723 (1.5%)

0011 2483

2927 0814 (2.7%)

0360 (16%)

2483 6342

0612 (3.4%)

6576

0371

2871 0723

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

0342 0341

0579

Total Exports: 18.52 b / 15.56 T (0.12%) Total Exports: 18.52 B / 15.56 T (0.12%)

3330 (64%) Crude petroleum

0573 (9.9%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

2927 (3.4%) Flora

0721 (1.2%) 4242 (1.1%) Palm oil 0371 (4.9%) Fish N.E.S.

0980

0579

7821 (1.3%) Trucks & vans 0360 (4.1%) Fresh, chilled, 0814 frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0342 0343 0344 0341 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6973

3352 (0.98%)

0712

0730 0712

158 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

egypt ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.021 / (63/5)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.37% / (18/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.02

0.025

Distance

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

320 256 192 128 64 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 159

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 696.77 M / 228.33 B (0.31%)

0422 (14%)

Total Exports: 3.41 b / 2.79 T (0.12%) Total Exports: 3.41 B / 2.79 T (0.12%)

6841 2631 (9.4%)

0541 (1.2%)

6521 (1.9%)

0615

0571 1222 5513

0752 6513 (5.9%) 3330 (7.6%)

0421 (3.2%)

0612

0541

2008

0571

EXPORT TREEMAP

0813

1124 2713

0545 (0.93%) 0561 6731 0546

9610 5542

6612

2731 (1.3%) Building stone

5221 (1.6%) Chemical elements

6998 (1%)

5622

6841

2713 (0.73%)

5542 3351 (0.86%) (0.81%) Organic surface-active 8939 agents N.E.S.

5232

2789

5621 (2.5%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

8921 0341

5225 3232 (0.74%) 6624 (1.3%) Non-refractory ceramic bricks

6997 (1.3%) Articles of iron or steel N.E.S.

8932 (0.83%)

6911

7414

6822 (3.7%) Worked copper & copper alloys

0571 (2.3%) Fresh or dried oranges & m&arines

5981 (3.9%) Woods & resin chemical 0541 products (0.96%)

0575

8462 (1.9%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

6584 (1.5%) Linens & furnishing textile articles

8439

8459

0542

2631 (1.1%) 0422 (1%) Semi or wholly milled rice

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6731 0545 (1.2%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

6522 (0.88%)

0546 (0.77%) 0579 (0.67%)

2711

0585

0980

6421

0620 6592 (0.96%)

6749 (0.74%) 6733 (0.63%)

7831

8122 6618

6732

6428

6727 (4.1%) Iron/steel coils

5831 (1.8%) Polyethylene

6612 (0.94%)

6842 (2.1%) 8219 Worked aluminium (1.4%) & aluminium alloys

6842

Total Exports: 26.35 b / 15.56 T (0.17%) Total Exports: 26.35 B / 15.56 T (0.17%)

3413 (23%) liquified hydrocarbons

7731 (3.3%) Electric wire

6521 8462

0545 (2.4%)

6516

2634 (0.88%) 2221 (0.75%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

3330 (65%)

6513 (11%)

6522 (3.5%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 696.77 m / 228.33 B (0.31%)

2631 (41%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 323 / (104/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 16 % (112/15)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 163 B / (50/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,997 / (92/15)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 82 M / (15/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 26 B / (62/10)

0561

6513 0240 (1.8%) Cheese (0.78%) & curd Cotton yarn

160 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

el salvador ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.026 / (60/8)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.06% / (31/3)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.01

0.88

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

740 592 444 296 148 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 161

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 225.20 M / 228.33 B (0.1%)

2631 (8%)

8510 (2.2%)

8472 6522 (2.8%)

6513 (1.8%)

6584 6581 5417 5530

EXPORT TREEMAP

0612

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Total Exports: 588.74 m / 2.79 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 588.74 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

0711 (72%)

6521 6549

8435 (1.6%)

8433 6584 (1.2%)

8439 (1.5%)

8434 8465

6513 (2.2%)

5541 5629 (1.1%) 5335 0819 0712 7731 6842 0360 (1.2%) (2.1%) 0422 (1.5%) 6996 6732 4233 2632 6421 (1.7%) 0813 0611 0615 (0.91%)

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Fruit

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 225.20 m / 228.33 B (0.1%)

0711 (53%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 742 / (85/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (97/14)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 22 B / (94/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,604 / (81/16)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 6.1 M / (89/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.6 B / (101/18)

0360 (5%)

7788 (4.8%)

6421 (0.9%) 0579

0914 8928 6951 (0.88%) 7782 6612

0712

Total Exports: 4.55 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.55 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

8462 (23%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8931 (2.2%) Closable plastic packing

0980 (1.6%)

5121 (4.8%) Acyclic 0711 (6.3%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee alcohols & substitutes derivatives

1110 (1.7%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S. 6421 (1.5%) Paper packing containers 0484 (1.4%) Bakery

8459 (4.3%) Other knitted outerwear

8463 (4.2%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers

8441 (1.1%) Men's undershirt 8465 (1.1%)

8439 (0.76%) 8451 (3.7%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

0470 (0.92%)

0914

0611 (1.9%)

5417 (2.7%) Medicaments

8939 (1.4%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

6732 (1.3%) Iron/steel rods

5542 (1.1%) 6424 (2.4%) Cut to size paper N.E.S.

8471

8510 (0.76%) 8433 8442

6584 (1%) Linens & furnishing textile articles 6552 (0.83%)

0585 (0.81%)

7788 (3.6%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S.

2690

6842 (0.88%)

6744 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7731

8219

3510 6428

5334

6746 (1.5%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets

0615

0371 (2.6%) Fish N.E.S.

8928

2882 2789

162 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

estonia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.791 / (32/9)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.65% / (52/20)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

-0.01

-0.005

Distance

2008

0.005

0.01

0.015

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

10 k 8k 6k 4k 2k 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 163

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

8219 (2.5%)

7731 (1.7%)

6342 (1.7%)

8211 (1.5%)

2460 (1.5%) 2483

6353 8212 6911 (0.96%) 6351 8431 8423 8435 (1.5%) (1.2%) 8462

6521 (2.4%)

5225 6612 (1.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (5.7%) Cars

0341 (1.1%)

6716

6522 (1.3%) 6513

3345 (1.5%)

2111

6749 5224 8462 8441

8219 (3.4%) 7731 (2.1%) 2471 (2%)

5621 (2.4%)

6911 (2.6%)

0488

6912 (1.3%) 2483 (0.81%) 2460 8211 (0.8%) 6359

8212 2472 6343 (1.4%) 6342

5334

Mining

Oil

8939

5621

2820 3224 (1.4%) 6423

5335

5629

2882

0721 (2.2%)

6997 7861 6633

0230

6130 0113

6724 6521 6544 6522 2482 (4.3%)

0342 0350 0240

5225 6612

6998 8931

1110

2631

Total Exports: 13.79 b / 15.56 T (0.09%) Total Exports: 13.79 B / 15.56 T (0.09%)

7449 (1%) 7239 7868 7162 (2.1%) AC electric motors & 7441 generators

7442 (0.92%) 7649 (5.3%) Parts of telecom & Lifting & sound recording equipment loading machinery 7169 (0.88%) Parts of rotating electric 7234 plants N.E.S. 6647 6749 (2.8%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

7712 (1.4%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S. 8947 8124 (0.53%)

5335 (1.2%) Glazes, driers, putty

8939 (1.2%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 8922

5334 (0.84%) Varnishes & lacquers 8510 8439

6252 (0.61%)

5621 (1.2%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

7416 7731 (3.6%) Electric wire

8462

8431

3224 (0.77%)

8429

8928

8212 (1.8%) Medical & dental furniture

3510 (1.6%) Electric current

2512

0240

0371 (0.52%)

2482 (2.1%) Worked wood of coniferous

6343

7861

2483

2471

6841

2882

6998 6851

0344

6130 0113

6633 6997

6359

0360

0342

8211 (1.5%) 6413

2460 (0.97%) 2472 Pulpwood

5825

6423

8459 8219 (1.9%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

2820 (3.2%) Iron & steel waste

5137 (0.79%)

6584

6911 (2.7%) Iron/steel structures

0371 (1.9%)

0343 8421 0344 6589 0224 (1.2%)

8429 8431

6251 (1.5%) Tires & pneumatic for cars

6353 (4.5%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

8749 6584 8439 8510 7449 (1.2%) 8423

6647

0586 (1.2%)

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Total Exports: 4.05 B / 5.90 T (0.07%)

7649 (11%)

3224 (2.2%)

5629

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Total Exports: 4.50 b / 5.90 T (0.07%)

7643 (15%)

6353 (2.7%) 5249 (1.1%)

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

7712

6861 6899 6712 6744 6863 0371 0224 (2.4%) 2820 (3.2%)

0342

8433 6354 8451 8441 6589 8452 8484

2890 (1.6%) 7599 (3.5%) 8947 (1.2%)

6831 6672 3222

8459 8424 6123 8434

8429 (2%) 8510 (1.6%)

2882 (2.7%)

7861

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Chemicals & health

2001

6841

2472 (2.7%)

6584 (2.7%)

7721 (2.2%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 10,293 / (24/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 59 % (22/5)

Total Exports: 852.72 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)

8439 (3.3%)

2008

GDP ≥ USD 24 B / (90/19) GDPpc ≥ USD 17,541 / (35/4)

Total Exports: 852.72 m / 4.30 t (0.02%)

2471 (5.1%)

2482 (4.6%)

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (125/27) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 14 B / (74/16)

6415 2519

0980

8931

1124 (1.8%) Alcoholic beverages

6612 (0.72%)

5225

0721 (1%) Raw & roasted coffee beans 0430

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0711

164 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ethiopia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.892 / (104/13)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.53% / (62/9)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.01

0.94

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

33 26.4 19.8 13.2 6.6 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 165

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 106.21 M / 228.33 B (0.05%)

0542 (8%)

0813 2116 (3.1%) (2.5%)

2117 (2.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 106.21 m / 228.33 B (0.05%)

0711 (61%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 20 / (128/26) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 6.3 % (127/26)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 26 B / (88/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 321 / (126/24)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 81 M / (16/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.6 B / (120/24)

Total Exports: 355.91 m / 2.79 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 355.91 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0711 (65%)

2925 2117 (9.1%)

2114 (2%) 2111 (1.3%)

6116 (5.4%)

2234

2919

0573 0149 (1.7%) (1.5%)

6114 2116 (1.4%) (1.4%)

2927

0012 2120 (1.2%)

4314 4314

9610 (4.4%)

2922

2223 2221

7148 2238

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.64 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

2919

6115

2114

0012 (3.7%)

2632 8741 0813 (1.1%)

0545 (1.9%) 2783 (1.7%)

6113

5514 8462 (0.94%) 0545 5322 (0.99%)

Total Exports: 1.64 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

0711 (36%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

2225 (13%) Sesame seeds

2117 (1.9%) 6115 (1.8%) 0112 (1.8%) Sheep Raw sheep skin Sheep & lamb & goat meat with wool leather

6116 (1.7%) Leather of other hides or skins

0011 (1.7%) Live bovines

0545 (6.2%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

2634

2922

2927 (6.7%) Flora

2926 (1.2%) 9710 (5.1%) Gold, non-monetary

0542 (7.4%) Dried or shelled legumes

0611 (0.86%)

2929 (2%) Vegetable origin materials

7924 (1.8%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

7234 9410

0752 (0.67%)

2238 (2.6%) Oil seeds & fruits N.E.S.

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6123

166 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

finland ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.715 / (6/5)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.03% / (88/9)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

2008

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

2.5

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

1.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

0 0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

-0.03

0.8

2008

-0.02

-0.01

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

18 k 14.4 k 10.8 k 7.2 k 3.6 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 167

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.79 B / 228.33 B (0.78%)

2517 (10%)

2482 (13%)

7932 (7.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6415 (5.9%)

2120 (3.4%)

6418 (4.8%)

7259 (1.4%)

6411 (5%)

6413 (3%)

7251 7234

7224 7162 7283

2516

7441 7449 7492 7239

6744 7932 (3.3%)

6412 (6.5%) 2516 (2.6%)

2512 5981

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6418 (3.2%) Rolls/sheets of coated paper

6416 (1.1%) 7731

6911 2483

0240 0230 2671 6421 (1.8%)

7442 (2%) Lifting & loading machinery

6342 (2%)

7731 8219 6911 6417

5331

6831 2875

6428 6353

7611

Mining

7712

5331 (1.4%) 2671 6424

2479

5831 3352

8922

6861 6821 8431 (0.79%) 8459 6831 6421 2120 (1.5%) 8931

Total Exports: 97.08 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 97.08 B / 15.56 T (0.62%) 7162 (2.2%) AC electric motors & generators

7821 (1.2%)

7493

7234 (1.7%) Construction & mining machinery

7283 (1.2%) Mineral working machinery & parts N.E.S. 7643 (15%) Television & radio transmitters

7239 (0.92%) Bulldozers, angledozers & 7492 (0.91%) levellers parts N.E.S.

7449 (0.86%) 7259

7169 (1.1%)

7284 (2.2%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

2482 (6%)

6749 7931 (1.5%)

7938 7915 (0.85%) 7641 7643

7416 6572 2518 (5.6%)

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

6746 6822 6745 6783 (1.4%) 6727 6716

7442 (1.2%)

6412 (9.9%)

7281 6419 (4.2%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 23.87 B / 2.79 T (0.85%)

2517 (5.3%)

6822 5224 (1.2%) 7411 (1.6%)

6413 (7.1%)

Fruit

Total Exports: 23.87 b / 2.79 T (0.85%)

6415 (10%)

6712 (2%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 1.79 b / 228.33 B (0.78%)

6411 (12%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 18,275 / (14/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 36 % (55/9)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 271 B / (33/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 50,905 / (10/7)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 5.3 M / (94/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 97 B / (36/14)

7224 (0.92%) Wheeled tractors 7139

7219

6251

6412 (3.6%) Printing & writing paper in rolls or seets

2482 (2.7%) Worked wood of coniferous

6415 (3%) Paper & paperboad in rolls or sheets

6353 (1%)

6342

7416

7138

7731

7441 6647

7188

2517 (2.2%) Chemical 6413 wood pulp, soda or (0.79%) sulphate

7251 (0.91%)

6428 3510

7649 (2.3%) 6746 (2.8%) Iron/steel Parts of telecom <3mm tick sheets & sound recording equipment

6749 (1.1%) 6822 Other (0.96%) worked iron/steel sheets 6783 (0.85%) 6745

8720 (0.97%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

5331

5123

7741

8744 6861 (0.81%)

6727 (1.7%) Iron/steel coils

6744 (0.78%) 7712 (1.9%) Parts of electric power machinery 7932 (2.9%) Ships & boats 7711 N.E.S.

8124 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6899 (0.82%)

6831 (1.3%) Unwrought nickel & nickel alloys

6821 (1.1%) 5629 5231

5831 2120 (0.64%)

8928 (0.52%)

168 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

france ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.473 / (11/7)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.09% / (82/6)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-0.5 0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

-0.07

0.62

2008

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

9.6 k 7.6 k 5.7 k 3.8 k 1.9 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 169

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

6746 (2.4%) 6747

6733 0224 0240 0111 (1.4%) (1.4%) 6749 6727

6783 6716 6725 7244 7411 6731 (1.6%) (1.6%) (1.3%)

7518 6782 (1.4%)

8947 7131 (1.2%) 8731

7499

7928 8822

5417 (1.8%)

5137 3345

5530

2331

2008

7788

6770

8921 0819 5232 8922 6573 5623 5335 6424

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (6.1%) Cars

6512 (1.6%)

0011 5922 (1%)

0230 (0.87%) 6732 (1.2%) 6842 6911

6973 8960 6341 (1.4%) 6953

1121 (2.9%)

8472 (1.4%)

6652 8842

0460

0574

0482 0541 8510 6841 5225 (1.2%) (1.2%)

6560

1124 (1.8%)

6522 (0.83%) 6513

2820 (1.1%) 2665

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Total Exports: 164.72 B / 2.79 T (5.89%)

7499 7162 7442 7849 (4.9%)

6746

6252

6822 7929 7149 7148 7923

5417 (1.7%)

5311 5145 8939 8742 5146 0819 5831 5834 5832 0011

6842 6732 8211 (0.97%) 6911 7414 3510 6428 6997 8219 8960 (1.5%)

6412

6652

6415

0412 (2.1%)

2224

0612

0440

0430 2226

0460 0111 0482 0574 0114 1124 8439 8310 5833

1121 (3%)

7523

6727

5530 (1.9%)

5137 5982

7416

7449 6289 8121

7924 (4%)

5839

0980

0240

8928

6512 2111 5241 (0.97%) 2882

6783

Total Exports: 595.52 b / 15.56 T (3.83%) Total Exports: 595.52 B / 15.56 T (3.83%) 7132 (1.3%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles 7492 (0.72%) 7783

7821 (1.2%)

7239

7442

7162

5417 (6.2%) Medicaments

5989 (1.1%)

5156

5839 (0.5%) 5982

7832 (0.69%)

7139 (0.56%)

7234 (0.54%)

6251 (0.56%)

7491

7431

5416 5530 (3.1%) Perfumery & 8939 (0.84%) cosmetics

7742 5514

8720

0819 8996

5542 8741

7924 (5.9%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

Total Exports: 164.72 b / 2.79 T (5.89%)

6251 7234 5989 (0.85%) 8822 7492 6782 2331 7132 7139 6731 5112 8720 7491 7783 7758

7849 (4.3%) Other vehicles parts

7721 (2.2%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

7721 (1.7%)

0440 5513 (1.4%)

2741

0565 0579

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (8.4%)

0430 (2.5%)

6118 6113

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 12.71 b / 228.33 B (5.57%)

7842 (3.8%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 9,570 / (25/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (94/13)

Total Exports: 12.71 B / 228.33 B (5.57%)

7810 (8.3%)

5989 (1.3%) 5148

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 2.9 T / (5/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 44,471 / (16/10)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 62 M / (20/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 596 B / (5/2)

5831 (0.73%)

7493

8743

6782

7224

7758

7149 (1.5%) Parts of gas & reaction engines

3510 (1.1%) Electric current

8851 6652

6732

0412 (1.1%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 0440 0612

6822 (0.67%) 6746

5913

5832

5912

0430

0240

0224 0011

0113

0111

0488 6749

7929 (1.4%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

6842 (0.66%)

5834

7518

6745

1121 (2.2%) Wine

0980

8931

8310 (0.87%)

7523

0484 7923 7148 (0.78%) 0730 Aircrafts of 7144 7921 between 2 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5241 (0.98%)

2820 (0.73%)

170 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

gabon ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.364 / (120/19)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.99% / (121/22)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.982

0.984

0.986

0.988

0.99

-0.02

0.992

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

5.4 k 4.3 k 3.2 k 2.1 k 1k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 171

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 157.67 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Total Exports: 1.27 b / 2.79 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 1.27 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

3330 (60%)

2472 (40%)

2877 (20%)

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 157.67 m / 228.33 B (0.07%)

3330 (29%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 5,379 / (38/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (26/5)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 15 B / (100/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 10,037 / (46/1)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.4 M / (124/25) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.8 B / (84/7)

2877 (13%)

2472 (15%)

2860 (5.7%)

5241 (6.4%) 6342 (1.8%) 2481 0721

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6341

2483

2479 (1.4%)

0360 (1.5%)

6716

0612 0721

Total Exports: 7.79 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 7.79 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)

3330 (68%) Crude petroleum

2877 (18%) Manganese

2472 (8.9%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous

6341 (1.7%) NULL

2483 (1.4%) Worked wood of non-coniferous 2320 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6342

172 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

georgia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.263 / (70/22)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.77% / (46/17)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.01

Distance

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

350 280 210 140 70 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 173

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

2001

Total Exports: 44.63 m / 4.30 t (0.001%) Total Exports: 44.63 M / 4.30 T (0.001%)

6716 (32%)

2820 (20%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 348.45 m / 5.90 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 348.45 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

7923 (9.9%)

3330 (12%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 355 / (102/24) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (122/26)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 13 B / (108/23) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,919 / (85/23)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.3 M / (103/19) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.5 B / (123/25)

6716 (6.1%)

1121 (11%)

7441

2871 (3.3%) 6725 (6.7%)

6712 (3%)

6782

2008

7528

EXPORT TREEMAP

6744 (1.3%)

2882 6841 (1.2%) (1.1%)

7452 7921 7239 7272 (2.5%) 6782 7911 7126 7919 9710 (4.4%) 2890 (3.2%)

2820 (12%)

2882 (8%)

1110 (5.3%)

1124 0577 (3.4%)

0741 (2%)

6831 (1.4%) 5621 (3.5%)

5156 (1.2%)

2925 (4.1%)

6732 (1%)

2871 (3.3%) 6841

7923

Total Exports: 1.53 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

6716 (20%) Ferro-alloys

8974

5121 5111 (1.6%)

5138 3510 (4.3%) 5249

5621 (1.7%) 2877 (1.6%) 0612 0460 0571 1223 5530 5232 0752 0412

2483

2472

Total Exports: 1.53 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

7810 (8.3%) Cars

1121 (3%) Wine

0980

2820 (9.4%) Iron & steel waste

0585 1110 (2.9%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S.

7911 (2.3%) Electric trains

7239

7919

1124 (4.3%) Alcoholic beverages

6782 9710 (7.4%) Gold, non-monetary 6612 (5.9%) Cement

2871 (8.7%) Copper

5621 (7.8%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

2882 (3.4%) Other non-ferrous base metals 5530 (0.7%) * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5249 (0.49%)

0577 (2.3%) Edible nuts

0612

3510 (1.2%) Electric current

2483 (1.1%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

6732 (0.69%)

0813

174 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

germany ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.985 / (2/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.34% / (67/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

0 0.44

1.5

0.46

0.48

0.5

0.52

-0.105

0.54

-0.1

-0.095

2008

-0.09

-0.085

-0.08

-0.075

-0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

18 k 14.4 k 10.8 k 7.2 k 3.6 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 175

7244 (3.5%)

7821 (2.3%)

7499 (3%) 7452 7281 6782 6991 (1.3%) (1.3%) 7491 7212 (1.1%)

7842 (4.1%) 7788 (1.3%) 7511 8852 7512 7518 8124

7783

7411 5989 (1.6%) (1.9%) 8745 5155 (1.1%) 7243 6940 5137 6731

7126 7784 7919

7283 7371 (0.89%) 8942 6746 6733 6783 6725 8811 (1.4%) 6727 6749 5224 6822 6712

8731 (1.2%) 6770 7782

5148 5417 (1.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6960

7849 (4.7%)

6746

Mining

Oil

8748 5417 (1.1%)

Coal

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

6418 7162 7284 (2.2%) 7428 7499 7758 7721 (1.8%) 7247 6940 7611

7452 7264 7244 7493 (1.2%) 7442 6782 6991 7132 7361 7491 7234 7822 7783 7449 7369 7436 7441 7362 7784 7367 6954 7243 8749 7372 8743 7832 7831 7252 7281 7224

5989 (1.4%)

8742

5839

8939 (1.1%)

5542 5334 5530 5834

5148 5156 5836 5137

5831

6842 8219 8211 8928 6428

0224 0223 5922

2820 6514

8124

7782

8983

6415

6953

6412

8931

5121

6421

7139 (1.3%) Piston engines parts N.E.S.

7452 (1.2%) Non-electrical machines parts N.E.S.

7493 (1.2%) Mechanical tools for building

7822

6954

7491

6940

7212

7284 (2%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S 8124

Total Exports: 1.47 T / 15.56 T (9.45%)

7821 (1.4%) Trucks & vans

7283

7421

7416

6822

6517

7499

7763 (0.75%)

Cereals & veg. oils

5621

6732 6842 2665 8928 (1.3%) 2820 7731 6911 6973 3232 6998 6812 (1.5%) 6953 5121 (1.2%)

7721 (2.6%) Switchboards, 7431 relays & fuses 7361

7712

Tropical agric.

7492

6210

Total Exports: 1.47 t / 15.56 T (9.45%)

7788 (0.78%)

7821 (1.5%) 7139

5623

5311

Total Exports: 113.86 b / 2.79 T (11.16%) Total Exports: 311.86 B / 2.79 T (11.16%)

7810 (13%)

5530

6573 7742 2671 5232 5331 5629

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

* Values for The Federal Republic of Germany

7810 (13%) Cars

7849 (4.3%) Other vehicles parts

EXPORT TREEMAP*

5542 6419 6424

8720 5411

8822

5335

* Values for The Federal Republic of Germany

2008

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 24.78 b / 228.33 B (10.85%) Total Exports: 24.78 B / 228.33 B (10.85%)

7810 (15%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 17,903 / (15/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (45/5)

Precious Stones

EXPORT TREEMAP*

GDP ≥ USD 3.6 T / (4/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 44,264 / (17/11)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

1968

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 82 M / (14/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.5 T / (1/1)

7492 (1%) 7132

7442 (0.79%) 7832 (0.75%)

8743

6991

7416

7234

7162

7436

7161 7281 6289

7264

5989 (1.5%) Chemical products

8742

5530

5831

6210

5542

7188

5414

7441

6842 (0.97%)

6911

2820

8219

3510

5823

7929

6822 (0.99%) Worked copper & 6746 copper alloys

6783

6997

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8931

0980

0484

0730

0240

2882

0113

1222

6733 6415

8928

6421

7861

7758

7924 (1.9%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

5156 (0.84%)

7742 5839 (0.96%) 8720 Other (0.87%) 8744 polymerization Medical & instruments 5417 (4.5%) Medicaments 8939 (1.1%) copolymarization N.E.S. Miscellaneous products articles of plastic 5334

7783

6782

5416 (1.1%)

176 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ghana ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.868 / (100/12)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.16% / (78/13)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.01

0.95

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

270 216 162 108 54 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 177

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 367.72 M / 228.33 B (0.16%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Total Exports: 910.85 m / 2.79 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 910.85 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0721 (35%)

6841 (16%)

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 367.72 m / 228.33 B (0,16%)

0721 (52%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 164 / (115/17) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 13 % (117/24)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 29 B / (84/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,222 / (101/11)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 23 M / (42/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.8 B / (103/13)

6841 (30%)

6672 (3.7%)

2771 (1.6%) 2877 (4%)

6672 (3.1%) 2771

2877 (1.6%) 2873

2472 (7.2%)

2483 (7.6%)

2483 (5%)

2472 (7.3%)

6341 0360 (1.4%) 0342 0579 7923

0723 (5.6%)

0723 (8.2%)

0819

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 3.83 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 3.83 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

9710 (48%) Gold, non-monetary

0721 (27%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

0577 (3.1%) Edible nuts

2223 2238 (1.2%) Oil seeds & fruits N.E.S.

0723 2483 (3.8%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

2320 6341 (1.5%) NULL

6344 (0.8%) 2877

2873

2882

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6342 (1.2%) Sheets of plywood 6842

7499 (1.2%) Non-electric parts of machinery N.E.S. 0342 0371

5233

8931

178 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

greece ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.214 / (53/16)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.77% / (101/12)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.014

0.016

Distance

2008

0.018

0.02

0.022

0.024

0.026

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

2.3 k 1.8 k 1.3 k 920 460 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 179

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 556.98 M / 228.33 B (0.24%)

0571 (4.2%)

0575 (1.4%)

4235 (9%)

0422 2922 6841 (9.9%)

2634 2782 (4.5%)

0565 (3.4%) 1121 (2.5%)

2873 (3.5%)

0585 (2.1%)

0579 (3.7%) 6130 (6.5%)

0589

6513 (3.5%)

5989 6560 (1%)

8471 2789 2731 (0.92%) 2875 2874

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6822 (4%) Worked copper & copper alloys

6612

2116 (2.9%)

2114 (1.1%)

6842

2919 (1%)

5981 (1%)

6975

8431 (1.5%) 8434 (1.5%) 0411 (4.6%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Cotton/rice/soy & others

6513 (3.8%)

8439 (1.4%)

8452 8423 6522 (1.2%) 6517

6589 8463

8433 8424 6584 8432 1211 (3.6%) 0575 (2.5%)

6716 (2.5%)

6822 6746 0589 (3.5%) (1.3%) (1.2%)

6727 (2.3%)

6783

6747

6749

6745

7932 (4.2%)

6841 (2%)

2782 (1.3%)

6612 (3.1%) 2873

1212

7933

0546 (2%)

0565 (1.7%) 4235 0545 (1.3%)

6623 0579 (1.7%) 1121 7144

0571 2631 (0.99%)

6842 (4.4%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

6732 (1.9%) Iron/steel rods 7414

7932 (1.5%) Ships & boats

5542 (0.69%) 5334

8939 (1%) 5821 7781

7924 (1.5%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

7415

5832 (1.7%) Polypropylene

5831

8731

0589 (2.3%) Prepared or preserved fruit

Total Exports: 7.98 B / 2.79 T (0.29%)

8451 (2.8%)

0440 (2.3%)

6724

6731

0565 (2.8%) Prepared or preserved vegetables

Total Exports: 7.98 b / 2.79 T (0.29%)

8483 (4.5%)

6842 (2.5%)

0585 7731

8939 5417 6613 (0.87%)

6130 0240 0350 6512

3345 5621 5113

Total Exports: 25.58 b / 15.56 T (0.16%) Total Exports: 25.58 B / 15.56 T (0.16%)

5530 (1.9%) Perfumery & cosmetics 6282

6924 6716 (1.3%)

6783 (2.9%) Other iron or 5417 (6.8%) Medicaments steel tubes & pipes

6749

8462 (5.1%)

8435 (1.6%)

0546 (1.1%) 5629 5622

5225 (2.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

8459 (2.4%)

0572 (1.4%)

0430 (2.1%) 0548

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 556.98 m / 228.33 B (0,24%)

2631 (13%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,278 / (57/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 7.3 % (126/16)

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 350 B / (26/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 31,174 / (23/15)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (64/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 26 B / (63/16)

4235 0579 (1.7%) Fresh or (2.1%) Olive dried fruit N.E.S. oil 0980 (0.98%)

0545

5989 (0.93%) Chemical products 5629 (0.57%)

7731 (2.1%) Electric wire

1211 (1.8%) Unstripped tobacco

2631 (1.8%) Raw cotton

1222 (1.2%) Cigarretes

2223

7752

8921

0575 (1.1%) 6624 6912 6911 (0.76%) (0.84%) Aluminium structures 8459 (2.6%) Other knitted outerwear

6428

0571 (0.91%)

6973 6552 (0.81%)

8463

6522

6575 6513

0341 (2.9%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets

8483 (1.9%) Fur clothing (not headgear)

0240 (1.6%) Cheese & curd

0483 0583 1110

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6841 (1.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 6612 (1.5%) Cement

8462

0484 8931

0411 (0.74%)

2789

2873 (1.1%) Aluminium ore 3354

5833 0223

2882

5823

180 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

guatemala ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.099 / (65/10)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.02% / (35/4)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.015

0.86

0.02

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

570 456 342 228 114 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 181

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

1988

Total Exports: 269.04 m / 228.33 B (0,12%) Total Exports: 269.04 M / 228.33 B (0.12%)

0711 (38%)

2631 (17%)

0111 (4.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 969.78 m / 2.79 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 969.78 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0711 (40%)

0141

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 566 / (93/19) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (101/15)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 39 B / (78/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,860 / (86/17)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 14 M / (58/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.7 B / (86/11)

0573 (13%)

8439 (3%)

8423

0616 8472 (1.9%)

2223

4233

2634 2632

8510 (1%)

0612 (2.7%)

2008

0752

EXPORT TREEMAP

0541 2929

2320

5513 7781 (1.2%) 1222 6749

0611

Total Exports: 7.74 b / 15.56 T (0.05%)

2926 (1.6%)

0545 0585

0611 (1.5%)

0914

2631 (4.1%)

0712

0752 (4.2%)

6651 (1%)

0612 (4.1%)

0615 (1.9%)

2926

8463 8452

2483 (1.1%)

8431

0579 (1.2%) 0360 (1.7%) 5913

Total Exports: 7.74 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)

0752 (3.2%) Spices other than pepper

0579 (1.9%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0484 (1.1%) Bakery

0980 (1.7%) Edible products N.E.S.

0585

8931 (1.1%)

0481

0620 (0.64%)

0565

5417 (2.5%) Medicaments

5530 (1.9%) Perfumery & cosmetics

5542 (1.1%) Organic surface-active agents N.E.S. 8939

5334

5541 (0.94%)

5147 (0.78%)

5911

5629

5543

6421 (1.1%)

2927

4312 1212

8459 (9.7%) Other knitted outerwear

8462

0546 2927 2925 (0.82%) 0111 (2.1%) 2225 1212 (1.2%)

0577 5513

1110 (1.2%)

4242 (2.5%) Palm oil

8441

0545 (1.5%)

2320

1211

2890

0611 (5.8%) Raw sugar beet & 0573 (5.2%) Fresh or dried 0711 (9.8%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0545 (2.2%) cane banana & plantains Other fresh or chilled vegetables

2320 (3.1%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

8435 8434

6581 5417 (1.7%) 0620 0980 (1.1%)

0813 5530 (1.4%)

0573 (7.8%)

6522 (1.7%)

8462 (2.9%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

5121 (1.4%)

2225 6552

8451 (0.81%)

6522

5913

2890 (4%) Ores and precious metals

8439 (2%) Other women outerwear

8463

6924 (0.7%) 6911 (0.65%)

8423 (0.72%) 8431

6624

6513

6732

6749 (1.3%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2882

7781

6783 (0.74%) 6651 (0.89%)

6531 3413 (0.98%) liquified hydrocarbons

5834

0360 (0.85%)

182 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

guinea ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.444 / (123/22)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.24% / (113/19)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

180 144 108 72 36 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 183

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 47.16 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Total Exports: 535.41 m / 2.79 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 535.41 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2873 (78%)

0711 (12%)

2232 (4.1%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 47.16 m / 228.33 B (0,02%)

5225 (73%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 180 / (113/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 47 % (34/7)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 3.8 B / (126/24) GDPpc ≥ USD 384 / (124/22)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 9.8 M / (72/19) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.8 B / (116/20)

6672 (16%)

0711

0577

0573 (3.8%)

2631 0721 5513 0579 (2.3%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2873 (43%) Aluminium ore

Total Exports: 1.77 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

2820

0579

Total Exports: 1.77 B / 15.56 T (0.01%) 9710 (27%) Gold, non-monetary

3330 (12%) Crude petroleum

8928 (6.6%) Printed matter N.E.S.

3413 (7.4%) liquified hydrocarbons 2320 (1.3%) Natural rubber, latex & gums 0411 2483 (1.4%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

184 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

honduras ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.518 / (88/16)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.59% / (58/11)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.02

0.03

Distance

2008

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

910 728 546 364 182 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 185

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 225.34 M / 228.33 B (0.1%)

0711 (13%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 960.74 m / 2.79 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 960.74 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0573 (44%)

2482 (8.4%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 225.34 m / 228.33 B (0,1%)

0573 (56%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 903 / (79/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 47 % (32/2)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 14 B / (104/20) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,909 / (94/19)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 7.3 M / (81/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 6.6 B / (89/13)

0711 (20%)

0360 (8.6%)

0111

0342 0111 (2.6%) 0011 0360 (1.4%) 0013 0542 (2%) 2631 (2.1%) 0440 (1.5%) 2223

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2874 (3.1%)

2879

8441 (1.4%)

0579 (2.2%)

8423

8432

0589

8462 2482 (2%)

6612 5541 (1.4%)

8465 (1.7%)

0583

6359

0572

0583

1221 2875 (1.5%) 7932 (0.81%) 8947 2874 9410

Total Exports: 6.61 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 6.61 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)

8462 (16%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8451 (14%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 0711 (11%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

0573 (4%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

4242 (3.2%) Palm oil

0611 4244

1222 7731 (5.9%) Electric wire

8459 (4.3%) Other knitted outerwear

8472 (2.5%) Knitted clothing accessories of textile fabrics

3413 (2.1%) liquified hydrocarbons

8429 (1.7%) Other men outerwear

2874 (0.72%)

6552 (1.3%) 8423 (3.1%) Men's trousers

8463 (2.8%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers

8465 (2.3%) Corsets 8439 (0.54%) 8441 (1.9%) Men's undershirt

9710 (1.6%) Gold, non-monetary

0579 (2.3%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

8931

5541 (0.88%)

0819

2690

6421

8997

0484

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

1221 (1.8%)

0360 (2.5%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

2882

0343 (1.2%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets

2820

186 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

hong kong sar, china ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.023 / (24/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.26% / (71/11)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.005

Distance

2008

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

53 k 42.4 k 31.8 k 21.2 k 10.6 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 187

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.68 B / 228.33 B (0.73%)

8510 (5.1%)

8942 (11%)

8124 (2.3%)

6991

7788 (2%)

6577

EXPORT TREEMAP

6584 (3.5%) 8471 (1.9%)

8999 (10%)

6672 (2%)

6998 8994 8851 8998

6522 (5.4%)

6960

6513 (1.8%) 8972 (1.7%) 8830 6658

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6673 8973 (1.6%) 2890

8997 8481

6521 (6.1%)

7782 5852

Mining

Oil

Coal

Total Exports: 42.13 B / 2.79 T (1.51%)

8942 (5.9%)

7649 (2.5%)

7628 8439 (3.8%) (2.1%)

8441 (2%)

8462 (2%) 6522 (7.4%)

8459 (2%)

7599 (2.3%)

8310 (1.1%)

8451 (3.7%) 8852 (1.8%)

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 42.13 b / 2.79 T (1.51%)

8310 (4%) 7781

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 1.68 b / 228.33 B (0,73%)

8472 (22%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 53,026 / (2/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 172 % (2/2)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 215 B / (40/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 30,834 / (24/4)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 7 M / (83/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 370 B / (13/4)

7764 8983 (1.6%) 7622

7788 7611 (1.1%) (1%) 7641 7722 (1.1%) (1%) 7849 (5.1%)

2923 8921 0360 (1.1%) 5335 1222 5530

7712 7757

8423 7763 7638 7522 8124 7518 (2.1%)

8435 (2.1%)

8481 8452

8431 6552

6560

6531

6541

6534

8811 7768 7284 (2.8%)

8429 (1.1%) 8463

7512

8851 (4.7%)

6974 8973 (2.3%) 8998

7758 (1%) 7243 7162

6672 (1.2%) 6673

8939 8972 (1.3%) 8999 8921 (0.87%) 8928 8483 0341 8931 (0.9%)

Total Exports: 370.35 b / 15.56 T (2.38%) Total Exports: 370.35 B / 15.56 T (2.38%)

7764 (14%) Electronic microcircuits

7599 (6.1%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7712 (2.4%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S.

8451 (2.2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

8459 (1.1%) Other knitted outerwear 8439 (1.1%)

7525 (2.3%) Control & peripheral hardware

8942 (4.4%) Toys

7638 (2.3%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 7649 (10%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7722 (2%) Printed circuits & parts N.E.S. 7788 (1.9%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S.

7721 (2.6%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7169

7763 (1.6%) Diodes & transistors

7781 (0.81%)

7643 (1.6%) 7528 Television & radio transmitters 8841

8510 (1.8%) Footwear

9710 (2.4%) Gold, non-monetary

7642 (0.5%)

8852

8423

6672 (3.1%) Not mounted diamonds

8431

8463

8441

8481

8851 (1.8%) Watches

7518

8124

7723

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7731

6811 5839

5833 (0.94%) Polystyrene

7757 6822

8842 (0.53%)

8973 (1.5%) Precious jewellery

8748 7149

8465

7768 (0.79%)

7641 8710 (0.76%)

8310 (1.9%) Luggage & handbags

6552 6522 (0.89%) Non synthetic knitted fibres 8462 (0.74%) 6513

8939

8921 (0.53%)

8972

6114 (0.54%)

188 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

hungary ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.430 / (14/3)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.31% / (22/8)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

-10

Distance

2008

-5

Opportunity Gain

0 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

11 k 8.8 k 6.6 k 4.4 k 2.2 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 189

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

0111 (4.6%)

0012 (2.1%)

7919 6991 0545 0565 0561 (1.5%) 6731 7914 6725 (2%) 8946 0586 0121 7782 8942 0579 (1%) (1.4%) 6746 6712 0589 1121 7915 (1.3%) 6931 (0.97%) 0546 5148 5155 5413 5414 2482 6582 7852 (1.1%) 6573 (1.6%)

0113 (1.6%) 0142

0015

0114 (3.9%)

0118 8472 (2%) 6584 8510 (1.1%)

0149 0616 (0.92%) 0013

6522 (4.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

5169 6841 (3.5%)

6521 (1.2%) 6544

8997 (0.81%) 8471

2008

8822

6782 (1.1%)

5621 (1.5%)

6732

0751 0542 2924 2665 (1.1%) 2923 (0.86%) 9410 4236 0574 6658 3354 3232 (1.2%) (0.81%) 5225 6612

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 6.64 b / 2.79 T (0.24%) Total Exports: 6.64 B / 2.79 T (0.24%)

7841 (2.1%) 7212 (1.4%)

7782 (2.1%)

6259 6931 5112 (1%)

5156 (1%)

5417 (1.8%)

8510 (1.8%)

8431 8459 8439

8424 5413 8310 8423 3351 6123 5161 6573 8481 7528 7641 7521 5148 8434 8433 5831 5834 5621 5913 7842 7361 8121 7522 7611 7642 8124 (2.1%) (1.2%) (1.2%) (1.3%) 3352 7491 7415 5832 6522 6542 6513 5629 6727 6725 6733 6782 7783 6842 (2.3%) 8219 1121 0545 0440 0411 (1.6%) 7272 6744 7367 6731 2224 2238 7449 0565 4236 7169 7752 0114 (2.9%) 0149 0113 0012 2919 8211 6997 6351 0546 0585 0542 0751 0811 (1.3%) (1.2%) 2450 6353 2925 2471 2472 0579 0561 2882 5225 2820 0142 0118 (2.7%) 6911 0980 0620 2483 6651 0913 5121 1124 0011 0451 6652 3232 6252

7831 (1.6%) 7219 (1.3%)

5111

7742

5414

Total Exports: 109.10 b / 15.56 T (0.7%) Total Exports: 109.10 B / 15.56 T (0.7%)

7132 (8.2%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles

7810 (8.1%) Cars

7643 (12%) Television & radio transmitters

7731 (2.9%) Electric wire

6842 (1%) 7752 (0.71%) 6911 6428

3510 (1.2%) Electric current

7611 (5.1%) Color T.V. 7849 (4.4%) Other vehicles parts

7139 (1.1%)

7431

6251 7721 (2.7%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7212

7783

7169

7239

7162

7784

7422

7758

8749

7429

6289

6991

6418

7919

7525 (2.2%) Control & peripheral hardware

7528

7523 (1.7%) CPUs 7638

7757

8732

7732

7518

7763

7782 (0.83%)

8939 (1.1%) 0819 Miscellaneous articles of plastic

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6727 (0.5%)

5831

5148

0980 (0.68%) 8931

0412 (0.7%)

7149 (0.5%)

2224

6353

2226

8124

7722

8211 (1.1%) Chairs & seats

5417 (3.6%) Medicaments

0440 (1.2%) Unmilled maize

7415

7499 8743 (1.4%)

7649 (2.2%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7868

7434

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 460.81 M / 228.33 B (0.2%)

6733 (2.5%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 10,859 / (23/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 70 % (13/3)

Total Exports: 460.81 m / 228.33 B (0,2%)

0011 (12%)

8481 (1.1%)

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 155 B / (51/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 15,408 / (37/6)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (70/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 109 B / (34/5)

0114 (0.58%) 0113

2820 (0.58%)

5834 (0.51%)

190 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

India ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.247 / (51/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 4.26% / (2/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

3 2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5

-2

-2 0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.005

Distance

2008

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

160 128 96 64 32 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 191

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

6545 (16%)

6522 (3.5%)

6513 (1.2%) 6519

6521 (3%)

0813 (5.1%)

0751 (1.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6114

2919 2114

6584 8510

2631 (1.4%)

4245 0711 (1.8%)

5513

2924

6732 (1.5%)

2879

7852 8960

6123 (2.3%)

2911

8433 (1%)

2815 (4.6%) Not agglomerated iron ore

0711 (1.4%)

2929 (1.1%)

8310 8451 8510 (0.94%) (0.89%) (1.2%) 0577 8434 8471 6594 8462 6581 6513 (1.8%) 6541 (1.6%) 8439 (0.95%) 0422 (1.7%) 8459 6596 6522 (1.6%) 6116 (2.1%) 8463

0751 (1.3%)

2924 0752

6545 (0.79%) 0813 (2.2%) 0421 2922 5311

2815 (4.6%) 6115

6113 2873 2731

5417 5530 (1.3%)

5146 6114

0545

2873

8973 (4%) Precious jewellery

6794

2731

2816 8973

0360 (3.1%)

2879

6783 (1.7%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes

6716 (1.5%) Ferro-alloys

6822 6749 (1.6%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

7161

7139

6727

6725

5169 (2.1%) Organic chemicals

7244 6975 7522 7761 6716

6953 6978 7853 0545

5112 (1.3%)

6712

7851

5417 (4.2%) Medicaments

7831

8441 8439

7929 (1.2%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

6531

0422 (2.5%) Semi or wholly milled rice

0813 (2.3%) Oilcake

6596

8434

6123

6522

6514

7938 (1.1%) Special floating structures 0440 (0.8%) Unmilled maize

8481

8432 8423

6513 (1.6%) Cotton yarn

2631 (1.4%)

0752 0711

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0111

6911 6732 (0.59%)

6116

0611 6613 (0.69%)

0577 (0.62%) 2225 0741

0360 (0.86%)

6114 0612 (0.65%)

6594

3352 5911

6821 (1.1%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys 8433

5311 (0.9%) Synthetic organic dyes

6746

7416

8459 (1%) Other 8310 knitted outerwear

Mining

6584 6592 (3.1%) 6521 0741 (3.6%) (0.98%) (1.9%)

7731

2816

8510 (1.1%) 8435 (1.1%)

Oil

Total Exports: 16.03 B / 2.79 T (0.57%)

8481 (1.5%)

6911 2820 8999

6861

6584 (1.4%)

Coal

Total Exports: 16.03 b / 2.79 T (0.57%)

Total Exports: 181.88 b / 15.56 T (1.17%) Total Exports: 181.88 B / 15.56 T (1.17%)

6672 (13%) Not mounted diamonds

8462 (2.1%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Tobacco

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). South Asia.

6672 (20%)

6673 6712 (2.5%) 6733 (1.8%) (0.96%) 6725 2877 (1.3%)

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

8441 (2.6%)

0360 (1.2%)

6672 2922 2640 (2.3%) 2221 0752 2929 2785 (1.1%) (1.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

8435 (2.9%)

6118 (4.8%)

6592 (0.92%)

6581 (4.4%) 0577 (5.4%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

1988

Total Exports: 1.97 b / 228.33 B (0,86%) Total Exports: 1.97 B / 228.33 B (0.86%)

0741 (16%)

2008

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 160 / (116/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 15 % (116/3)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 1.2 T / (12/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,067 / (108/2)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.1 B / (2/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 182 B / (24/1)

0751 5823

0545

0579

192 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

indonesia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.007 / (61/10)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.32% / (21/6)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.02

0.82

0.025

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

600 480 360 240 120 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 193

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

1988

Total Exports: 973.06 m / 228.33 B (0,43%) Total Exports: 973.06 M / 228.33 B (0.43%)

2320 (17%)

2231 (5.1%)

3330 (32%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 21.93 b / 2.79 T (0.78%) Total Exports: 21.93 B / 2.79 T (0.78%)

3330 (23%)

2876 (11%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 603 / (91/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (75/12)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 511 B / (19/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,245 / (90/10)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 227 M / (4/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 137 B / (30/9)

2320 (8%)

4242 6342 (12%) (1.8%)

4243 0721

4242 (3.2%)

0711 (7.9%)

0711 (3.2%)

3413 (17%)

2232 0751 (1.8%) 0741 (2.8%)

2923 0751 0741 2483 (4.1%) 0813

0548 0752 2873

0752 (1.3%) 2221 0615 2923 0813 0548 (1.3%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

3413 (12%) liquified hydrocarbons

2472 (3.4%)

2872

2471 6871 (2.1%)

8999 (1.5%)

0360

2483

5723

6584

6841 (1.8%)

2114

2872 (1.8%)

2871 (1.7%)

6612 8973

8439 8441 8435 8423 8462 8463

6344 (0.87%) 6349

6531

1211 0360 (3%)

6534 6516

0342 6871 (1.6%) 0341

5621

6727

Total Exports: 137.13 b / 15.56 T (0.88%) Total Exports: 137.13 B / 15.56 T (0.88%) 3330 (11%) Crude petroleum

4242 (11%) Palm oil

2320 (5.3%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

0711

8510 (1.6%) Footwear

8459 (1%) Other knitted outerwear 8439

8451

8429

8465

6354

8441

0813 4244 (1.3%)

8462

8423

0721 (0.75%) 0577

6514

4243

6516

3354 (2.1%)

3222 (9.2%) Other coal

2871 (2.9%) Copper

6821

8219 (1.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

7731 (0.84%) Electric wire 8211

7638 (1%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 6353

7781

6342 (0.91%) 2483

2872 (1.7%) Nickel

5225 (0.51%)

6415 (1.7%) Paper & paperboad in rolls or sheets

2517 (1.3%) Chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate 6412 (0.58%)

7452 (0.81%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6871 (1.7%) 0360 (1%) Unwrought tin & alloys Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & 0342 molluscs 5146

6251

0372 5541 4313

6822 6744

7641

6716

0914

5823 (0.53%)

194 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

islamic republic of iran ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.229 / (118/15)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.27% / (111/12)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.935

0.94

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 195

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.12 B / 228.33 B (0.93%)

6592 (5.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 2.12 b / 228.33 B (0,93%)

3330 (87%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,379 / (71/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 29 % (67/11)

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 338 B / (28/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,700 / (69/10)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 72 M / (18/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 99 B / (35/3)

Total Exports: 8.64 b / 2.79 T (0.31%) Total Exports: 8.64 B / 2.79 T (0.31%)

3330 (88%)

6592 (5.3%)

2631 (2.4%)

0577 (2.8%)

0577 2922

0575 0752 2117 (0.84%)

2117 2919

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

0579

Total Exports: 2.12 b / 15.56 T (0.93%) Total Exports: 2.12 B / 228.33 B (0.93%)

3330 (87%)

6592 (5.7%)

2631 (2.4%)

0577 2922 2117 2919 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

196 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ireland ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.231 / (18/10)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.65% / (105/14)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.01

0.015

Distance

2008

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

32 k 25.6 k 19.2 k 12.8 k 6.4 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 197

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

0111 (13%)

6672 (8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 18.36 B / 2.79 T (0.66%)

8983 (3.9%)

7522 7721

0111 (5.9%)

0230 (2.9%)

0240 (1.7%)

7758 6954 0121 (3%) 0620 2874 (2.3%) 0015 (2.5%)

0149 (1.4%) 0116

0112 (1.7%) 0230 (3.7%)

0240 (2.2%) 0224

2008

0113

0115

0012 6114 (1.4%) 2681 2111 2919

EXPORT TREEMAP

2875 (1%) 2789

6512 (0.78%) 0360

5413 (1.4%)

2772 (2.5%)

0819 8472 (1.9%)

1123 (3.4%) 5415 (1.2%)

8731 6931 6623

8720

6519 8960

6584

6940 7452

7764 (1.4%)

7599 (6.2%)

6251 7525 7528 7822 (0.84%) 7757 8841

7649 (0.96%) 7722 8720 5417 (3.1%) (1.4%)

5156 (4.1%)

8942

0011 0015 0112 (1.6%) 0149 0116 0980 (5.4%)

6733

5148

6658 0541 0542

5514 (1.1%)

5989 5154 8748 5146 5147

8939

5922 (1.4%)

0224 (1.8%) 2111

7731 (1.3%)

5413 5530

6522 6514 6534

7414

8462

6652 8921

9410

6210 6521

8510

0980

0730 (1.1%)

2875 6998 0488 2929 0430 0612

0620 1124 (1.9%) 1123 2873 (1.1%)

5139

2772 (1.8%)

8931

5621

2665

3224 8924

Total Exports: 127.14 b / 15.56 T (0.82%) Total Exports: 127.14 B / 15.56 T (0.82%)

5156 (15%) Heterocyclic compound; nucleic acids

5514 (6.9%) Odoriferous substances

5417 (18%) Medicaments

7523 (5%) CPUs

7599 (2.9%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

5148 (5.3%) Other nitrogen-function compounds

8720 (3.3%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

7764 (4.6%) Electronic microcircuits

7522 (1.9%) Digital data processing machines

8841 (1.2%)

7525 (1.1%)

7528

8996 (3.3%) Orthopaedic appliances 0111 (1.9%) Bovine meat

0980 (0.94%)

1124 (0.85%) Alcoholic beverages

0730 0149 5989 (4.3%) Chemical products

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Total Exports: 18.36 b / 2.79 T (0.66%)

7523 (6.6%)

2771 0730 (3.4%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 921.12 m / 228.33 B (0,4%) Total Exports: 921.12 M / 228.33 B (0.4%)

0011 (17%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 28,696 / (9/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 48 % (31/3)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 266 B / (34/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 60,178 / (5/4)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.4 M / (102/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 127 B / (32/12)

5416 (2.5%) Glycosides & vaccines

5155 (0.73%) 5145 (0.6%)

5157 (1.1%)

0484

5146 5413 (1.4%) Antibiotics

5139

5530 5419

5415

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0240 (0.86%) Cheese & curd 5922

0230 0224

0488 (1.3%) Malt extract & cereal preparations containing less than 50% cocoa 7414

2873 2875

198 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

israel ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.164 / (19/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.46% / (64/7)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5 2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-0.5 0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.005

0.01

Distance

2008

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

8.6 k 6.8 k 5.1 k 3.4 k 1.7 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 199

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 575.78 M / 228.33 B (0.25%)

0571 (19%)

0572 (6.8%)

2221

EXPORT TREEMAP

7499 (3.2%)

7284 (2%)

2871

2008

6998

EXPORT TREEMAP

6612

0579

0545 0561

8481 6513 (2.3%)

5221 6521 6517 7928

8960 2665

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

7788

7929 (3%)

7643 7781 7757 7763 7149 9510 7452 7768 7754 8710 6259 7528 8748 8742 5232 2713 0585 (3.3%) 0571 0572 (1.1%) (1.9%) 8720 7741 2927 2631 5222 5622 0579 0589 (1.7%) (0.9%) 5629 0980 0546

5623 (3.7%) 2713 (2.2%)

7131

7622 (2.2%)

7649

4232 2927

0589 (1.8%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 10.20 B / 2.79 T (0.36%)

6672 (37%)

0813

8472 (3.4%)

Food Processing

Total Exports: 10.20 b / 2.79 T (0.36%)

2634

0585 (4.7%)

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 575.78 m / 228.33 B (0,25%)

6672 (40%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 8,565 / (30/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 31 % (64/10)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 202 B / (42/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 27,652 / (25/4)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 7.3 M / (82/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 63 B / (49/6)

8973

6954

7281 8946

5623 (1.8%)

5911 8939 5914 (1%)

2782

7641

5834 8462 (1.1%) 5831 8459

6514 0149 8424

Total Exports: 62.65 b / 15.56 T (0.4%) Total Exports: 62.65 B / 15.56 T (0.4%)

6672 (39%) Not mounted diamonds

5989 (5.3%) Chemical products

7742 (1.3%) X-ray apparatus

7741 (0.89%)

8742

8720

7649 (3.8%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7788 (1.4%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S. 7622 (0.55%)

5839

7723

5112

5417 (9.3%) Medicaments

8939 (1.8%)

6954 (1.6%) Interchangeable hand and machine tools

7452 (0.75%)

8749 6572

7492 7929 (2.6%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

7923 (1.7%) Aircrafts of between 2 and 15 tons

7149 5629 (4%) Fertilizers

5622 (1.1%) Phosphatic fertilizers

5913 (1.1%) Herbicides

6997 (1.3%) 3510 Articles of iron (0.72%) or steel N.E.S. 6633 0545

5222

0980

5832 (0.8%) 0579 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6514

200 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

italy ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.308 / (16/8)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.18% / (75/3)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-0.5 0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

-0.07

0.6

2008

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

9k 7.2 k 5.4 k 3.6 k 1.8 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 201

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 10.28 B / 228.33 B (4.5%)

7411 (2.7%)

7499 (2.3%) 7512 (2.3%)

8510 (8.2%)

7851

6782

7281

7243

8472 (7.9%)

6584

6517

0575 0571

6114

2927 5513

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7849 (3.9%) Other vehicles parts

6732 6842

6341 8942 7511 0545 (1.6%) 0589 6924 6911 (0.95%) 0585 6633 8842 6652 6960 8124 0565 7852 8952 8998 6746 5413 8922 5629 6613 6822 6783 (1.1%) 5221 8921 6573 2665 5148 3345 5621 (1%) (0.91%) 8310 6513 8973 6998 2671 (1.7%) 0572 0574 0577 (1.5%) 8471 6541 2731

7283 7271 6785 8946 7371 6940 7832

7244 (3.1%)

0579 (2%) 1121 (1.9%) 6973 6624

7452

6512

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 10.28 b / 228.33 B (4.5%)

7810 (10%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 9,059 / (27/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 24 % (86/11)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 2.3 T / (7/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 38,385 / (20/13)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 60 M / (22/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 542 B / (7/4)

Total Exports: 127.35 b / 2.79 T (4.56%) Total Exports: 127.35 B / 2.79 T (4.56%)

7849 (3.2%) 7284 (2.4%)

7245 6991 7442 7499 7431

7493 7272 6940 7491

6782 7162 7428 7449 7283

7452 (1.6%) 7492 (1.3%) 7281 (1%) 7416 7758

7244 6251 7523 8124 7751 (0.83%) 7415

7369 7434 7439

6783

8219 (2.4%)

6624 (2%)

6732

7414

7752

6911

6842

6997

7224

7361 8510 (5.7%)

6542

6522

8471

6514

6534

8439

8481 8463 8472 8424 8422 8434 8431 6552

8451 (2.9%)

0240

6543 6541

8921 6573 5839

6973

6822 7783 7362 7373 6785 8310 8459

8211 8939 (1.6%) (1.3%)

5147 6412 5834 6210

1121 (1.4%) 0545

8973 (2.9%)

0579 0546 0730 0589

6114

6613 (1.5%)

2665 7853 7248

0575

0240

Total Exports: 541.81 b / 15.56 T (3.48%) Total Exports: 541.81 B / 15.56 T (3.48%)

7284 (2.4%) Specialized 7452 (2%) industry machinery & parts Non-electrical N.E.S machines parts N.E.S.

7721 (1.3%) 7442 Switchboards, relays & fuses

7492 (2.2%) Valves

7416 (0.95%)

7821 (1.6%) Trucks & vans

7493

8219 (2.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6624

6732 (1.2%) Iron/steel rods

8510 (2.4%) Footwear

8310 (1%)

8439 (0.78%)

8211 (1%) 8451 6997 (0.85%)

7731 (0.83%)

6911

7752

8432

8481

6552

8471

6428 8422

7281

7234

7758

7224

7431

7499

7372

7436

7272

8121

7822

7162

7428

7361

7362

7139

7239 6991

6785

7491

7413

7212

6842 (0.72%)

7414

8463 6522

8842

7449 5417 (3.2%) Medicaments

7441

1121 (1.3%) Wine

0565

0730

6954 6782

7283

6731

7851

6783 (1.1%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes 6822 (0.72%)

8939 (1.1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

8743 7132 6746

6572 6727

0484

8124

7415

6749

7751

8947

6744

7757

7932 (1.4%) Ships & boats

7149

7929

0483

6613

7853

5530 (0.78%) 5831 (0.59%)

7921

0980 (0.62%)

6210

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8973 (1.5%) Precious jewellery

6998 (0.55%)

6114 (0.89%)

0240

202 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Jamaica ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.343 / (81/13)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.35% / (66/14)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.2 k 960 720 480 240 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 203

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 273.11 M / 228.33 B (0.12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2873 (42%)

0611 (13%)

8462 (5.8%)

8459 (2.3%)

8465 8441 (1.6%) (1.6%)

8463 (1.7%) 0611 (8%)

0573 (2.8%)

0589

8471 (1.8%)

8433

8435 (1%) 5121 (1.7%)

0711 0612 0571 (1.2%) 0751

0360 0344 (1.1%) 0342 5832 8212 (0.97%)

5121 (7.8%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives

1124 (2.5%) Alcoholic beverages

0721 3345 (0.87%)

8434

1221 (0.94%)

0751

EXPORT TREEMAP

1124 (4.7%)

0615 (1.3%)

0585

2008

8429 (1.2%)

8423 (2.7%)

0573 (9.9%)

1124 (2.1%)

Mining

Total Exports: 979.83 M / 2.79 T (0.04%)

8451 (2.2%)

5225 (14%)

Oil

Total Exports: 979.83 m / 2.79 T (0.04%)

8439 (3%)

0612 (4.6%)

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 273.11 m / 228.33 B (0.12%)

2873 (47%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 923 / (78/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (108/17)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 14 B / (103/19) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,301 / (66/12)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2.7 M / (117/20) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.5 B / (110/21)

0548 (1.3%)

7932 (3.6%)

Total Exports: 2.48 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.48 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

2873 (69%) Aluminium ore

1123 (1.7%) Beer

0980 (1.1%) Edible products N.E.S.

0484

1110

0589 0579

0611 (5.4%) Raw sugar beet & cane

0711 (1.4%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0548 (1.3%) Fresh & dried vegetables, roots & tubers N.E.S.

5156 (1.3%) Heterocyclic compound; nucleic acids * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5114

2820 (1%)

204 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

japan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 2.316 / (1/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.71% / (50/8)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.4

2.2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

-0.05

-0.045

Distance

2008

-0.04

-0.035

-0.03

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

6.1 k 4.8 k 3.6 k 2.4 k 1.2 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 205

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

7821 (2.3%)

6731

6782 (2.4%) 7243 (1.7%)

7932 (12%)

6746 (2.6%)

6783 (1.9%)

7919 7411 6785 (1.3%) 7271 7783 6749 8942 (1.9%) (2%)

6747 (1.5%)

6822 6733 6727 5224

EXPORT TREEMAP

7491 (1.1%) 8812

6940

8510 (1.8%) 8472 (1.5%)

6522 (3.4%)

6354 6584 6664

6521 6732 6624 6665 (1.3%) 8952 8994 7731 6911

6953

7781 8841

5148 2331 2665 (1.7%) 2671 (0.99%) 8720

8982 7511 8852 5621 6931 7782 (1.3%)

7821 (3.4%)

8998 6998 6612

6573 6512 0589 0611 (0.96%) 5231

7721 (1.6%) 7234 (1.1%)

7284 7139 7132 7783 7442 7441 7518 (1.3%) (1.9%) 7243 7244 7648 8983 7431 7491 7758 7831 (1.2%) (0.99%) 7162 7591 7525 6782 (0.98%) (1.1%) 7245 7499 6746 (1.3%) 6783 7361 6954 6731 7138 6940 7851 6744 6749 7362 7367

7849 (4.8%) Other vehicles parts

7764 (4.7%) Electronic microcircuits

7649 (2.4%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7788 (1.8%) Other electrical 7768 (1%) 7781 (0.74%) machinery & equipment N.E.S. 8710 (0.73%)

7821 (2%) Trucks & vans

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

7649 (2.7%)

8822 8748

7641 (1.9%)

7788 (1.6%) 7768 7628 7611

7638 (2.1%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S.

7234 (2.1%) Construction & mining machinery

7599 (3%)

5156 8742

8947 7761 7763 7642

8811 7415

7512 7762 8841 8710

7712 8982 7621

8851 (0.99%) 8952 6531

7932 (1.8%)

7853

Total Exports: 781.49 b / 15.56 T (5.02%) Total Exports: 781.49 B / 15.56 T (5.02%)

7810 (19%) Cars

7284 (4.3%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Fish & Seafood

Tropical agric.

7849 7638 (3.3%) (3.8%)

8851 7852

8811 (1.4%)

6770

Total Exports: 278.88 B / 2.79 T (9.98%)

7810 (19%)

7764 (3.1%)

6960

7512

Total Exports: 278.88 b / 2.79 T (9.98%)

6517

7788 (1.4%)

8947

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

8310 8471 6575 6560

7822 7832 6781

8710

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

1988

Total Exports: 12.47 B / 228.33 B (5.46%)

7244 (1.8%)

2008

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 6,116 / (36/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 16 % (113/16)

Total Exports: 12.47 b / 228.33 B (5.46%)

7810 (6.7%)

7851 (3.1%)

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 4.9 T / (2/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 38,268 / (21/3)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 128 M / (10/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 781 B / (4/2)

7721 (2.2%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7132 (0.83%) 7493 (0.8%) 7491 (0.64%) 8749 Internal Mechanical combustion tools for 7783 engines for 7361 7239building7442 (0.63%) 6251 motor vehicles 7492 (0.62%)

7431

7367

7161

7139 (1.1%) 7499 Piston engines parts N.E.S. 6954 7851 (0.94%) Motorcycles

7138 (0.51%)

7436

7831

7763 (1.5%) Diodes & transistors 8841 (1.4%)

7722

7415

7518

7648

6940

8743

7133

6782

5112 (0.91%)

5839 (0.75%) 5156

8742 (0.5%)

8822

8748

2331

7741

7712 6727

6749

6746

7932 (3.2%) Ships & boats

7162 7441

5989 (1.8%) Chemical products

2820

5833

5823 6744 (0.66%)

6725 6252

6822 (0.59%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6745

6733

7782

6821

206 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

jordan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.325 / (45/3)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.42% / (14/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.015

0.02

Distance

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 207

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 33.54 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

0542 (5.8%)

0571 (2.4%)

0574 (1.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 33.54 m / 228.33 B (0.01%)

2713 (54%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,368 / (73/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 35 % (57/9)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 23 B / (93/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,905 / (79/12)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 5.8 M / (90/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 8 B / (82/14)

Total Exports: 764.43 m / 2.79 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 764.43 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

2713 (30%)

5623 (18%)

0545 (7.9%)

0579

0575 0544 (2.8%)

0460 (2%)

1222 (1.7%)

0577

0811 0430 0545 (2.5%)

3330 (11%)

0579 (1.1%)

0544 (3.1%)

6612 (3%) 5622

2008

5629 (13%)

5622 (2.2%)

7283

5231

7928 7144 6613 (2.1%)

5621 5417 (3.8%)

7131

5621 (6.7%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

8459 (7.6%) Other knitted outerwear

8439 (1.6%) Other women outerwear

8462 (1.4%) 7643 (3.2%) Television & Knitted radio transmitters undergarments of cotton

8451 (1.3%)

2713 (7.6%) Natural calcium phosphates & aluminium

7162 (1.1%) AC electric motors & generators

8463 (1.2%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers 8434 (0.83%)

5417 (7.5%) Medicaments

0545 (2.7%) Other fresh or 0980 chilled vegetables (0.96%)

1110

5231 (0.72%) 5629 (0.63%)

7731 (2.1%) Electric wire

6749 8931

8973 (1.8%) Precious jewellery

8939 5530

5334 0819

5542 5335

9710 (1.2%) Gold, non-monetary

0544 (2.8%) Fresh or chilled tomatoes 6417

8219 6428

6924 (2%) Metal cask for packing goods

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6842 7414

7751

2882

6612

4312 (1.1%)

5232 (1.9%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts

7415

7929 (1.2%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S. 7131

7831

0579

5622 (1.1%)

6973

Total Exports: 7.95 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 7.95 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)

5623 (11%) Potassic fertilizers

5222 (3.8%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

0012

8743

5232

5629

EXPORT TREEMAP

0572

0577 1222 7149 (2.4%) 2882 (2.1%)

0620

7821 6731

0571 (1.6%)

0114

0149 0251

0224

1222

208 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

kazakhstan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.608 / (92/23)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.82% / (98/25)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.01

0.94

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

4.6 k 3.6 k 2.7 k 1.8 k 920 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 209

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.50 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

6821 (11%)

6716 (5.5%)

6746 (3.4%) 6811 (7.5%)

6861 (3.1%)

6727 (3.8%)

6744 (1.1%) 6745

2681 (3%)

2116 2111

5241 (2.9%)

6899 (0.83%) 6851 2881

2682 5221 (1.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 8.64 b / 5.90 T (0.15%) Total Exports: 8.64 B / 5.90 T (0.15%)

3330 (53%)

6821 (7.8%)

6716 (3.9%)

5224

2873 (2.2%)

6733 6747

6861 (2%)

2631 (2.9%)

3222 (2.9%)

0371 5629 3345 (0.94%) 0411

6851

6841

2875

2008

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 1.05 b / 4.30 t (0.03%)

3330 (39%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,555 / (40/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (27/8)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 133 B / (53/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,514 / (51/13)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 16 M / (55/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 71 B / (42/6)

6746 (2.7%)

6811 (1.7%)

6749 (1.6%)

6747 6822

6899 2816

6727 (1.4%)

6744

2877 2815 0412 (3.9%) 5241 (1.8%) 9710 (1.3%)

2820 (1.1%)

2631

5232

Total Exports: 71.40 b / 15.56 T (0.46%) Total Exports: 71.40 B / 15.56 T (0.46%)

3330 (64%) Crude petroleum

6821 (3.7%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

2879 (0.68%) 2816 (1.2%) Agglomerated iron ore 2873 (0.73%)

2871 (0.53%) 6861 (0.95%) Unwrought zinc & alloys 6811

6725 (0.93%) 6727 (0.92%) Iron/steel Iron/steel coils billets 6749 (0.79%)

7924

5241 (1.9%) 2741 Radioactive chemical elements

0412 (2%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

6851

9710 (0.82%)

6822 (0.51%)

6746 (0.78%)

2815 (0.72%)

3222 (1.2%) Other coal

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6716 (4.4%) Ferro-alloys

2820 (0.87%)

6114

0460 (1.3%)

210 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

kenya ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.276 / (73/3)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.46% / (13/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.02

0.86

0.025

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

170 136 102 68 34 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 211

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 170.69 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

0741 (20%)

2114

2120

6118

2911

5232 (2.4%) 2631 (3.5%)

2654 (3.3%)

0440 (9.1%)

0545 (4.1%)

0579 (3.1%)

0585 (1.4%) 0565 6113 0344 (0.94%) 6115

6116 (2%) 6114 (1.9%) 0577

2654

5232 (1.7%)

2927 (4%) 2929

0615

2111 2114 5989 2785 6673 (0.83%) 5322 8741 8997

Total Exports: 5.05 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 5.05 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

0741 (22%) Tea

0545 (6%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

0589 (1.8%) 8931 (1.6%) Prepared or Closable preserved fruit plastic packing

0914 (1%) Margarine 6421 (0.64%)

2927 (12%) Flora

0711 (3.6%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

2929

0488

8439 (1.5%) Other women outerwear 8459 (1.5%) Other knitted outerwear

5232 (4.8%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts

0565 5541 (0.97%) Soaps

0585 (0.54%)

5621

8510 (0.91%) Footwear

8423

8921 6842 (0.74%) 6732

8432

6911 (0.64%)

6749 (2.4%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

3510 7144

6996 8451

5542 (0.62%) 5543

0579 (0.59%)

0620

6974 (0.82%)

0542 1222 (2.1%) Cigarretes 2926 (1.2%)

Mining

Oil

0589 (4.1%)

5322 (2%)

9610

Coal

Precious Stones

Total Exports: 896.34 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0741 (28%)

0577 (1.4%)

0615

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Cereals & veg. oils

Total Exports: 896.34 m / 2.79 T (0.03%)

0819 8921 2634 2235 6612 0589 (0.84%) 2221 0813 2876 (2%) 7131 8731 6354

2924 (2.5%) 0542 (1.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

0711 (34%)

0149 (3.1%)

2111

2008

Animal Fibers

1988

Total Exports: 170.69 m / 228.33 B (0.07%)

0711 (29%)

2929 (3%)

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 130 / (120/20) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (110/21)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 30 B / (81/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 775 / (115/16)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 39 M / (31/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 B / (96/10)

4242 (1.2%)

1212

6612 (2.8%) Cement

2783 (0.94%)

2785

0342 (0.67%) 6114 0344

2882

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0343

6116

8928 (0.98%) 6651

212 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

korea, republic ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.469 / (12/3)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.09% / (28/7)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.005

Distance

2008

0.01

0.015

0.02

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

8.7 k 6.9 k 5.2 k 3.4 k 1.7 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 213

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 421.91 M / 228.33 B (0.18%)

8510 (4.6%)

8999 (14%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Total Exports: 60.08 b / 2.79 T (2.15%) Total Exports: 60.08 B / 2.79 T (2.15%)

7764 (4.5%)

0548 (7.1%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 421.91 m / 228.33 B (0.18%)

8472 (23%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 8,682 / (29/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 45 % (37/7)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 931 B / (15/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 19,162 / (33/6)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 49 M / (24/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 422 B / (12/3)

7649 (1.7%)

7761 7621 8510 (7.8%) (1.3%) (1.2%)

8481 (3.5%)

6531 (3.2%)

8983 (1.4%) 6575 (1.6%)

6560 (1.4%) 2924 (2.7%)

8471

2613 (7.4%)

6541 (7.3%)

6521 (5.5%)

2874 (1.2%) 2785

2782 2875 0360 (2.6%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2919

8942 (2.3%)

7611 (2.2%)

7642

2614

7523 8429 6727 (1.6%) 6744 6746 (1.3%)

7810 (6.1%)

7788 (0.79%) 5621 (1.2%)

6597 6960

7758 (1.8%)

6251

7932 (2.8%)

6940

8710 (7.3%) Optical instruments

7810 (9.9%) Cars

6252 6931 8851 7731 7711 6732 6259

7849 (4.1%) Other vehicles parts

7416 (0.63%)

8441 8459 8463 8435 8424 8472 8439 (1.1%)

6534 6541 6516

8431 8462

8421 8842 0360 0342 8939 (1.1%) 6573 0344 3345 0341 8483 6512 5629

6613 8972 2929 6612

7781 (0.92%) Batteries

7284 (1.7%) 5112 (1.7%) Cyclic 5138 (1.2%) Specialized hydrocarbons Polycarboxylic industry acids & machinery & derivatives parts N.E.S 5839 2331 5148 (0.88%) (0.63%) Other 7499 polymerization 5111 (0.63%) & 6954 copolymarization 5831 5832 products (0.94%)

6785 7247 7831 7361

7649 (5.5%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7133 7932 (11%) Ships & boats

7599 (1.9%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

6974

6783

7234 (1%) 7239 Construction & mining machinery

7525 (2%) Control & peripheral hardware

8310 8482 (2.3%)

Total Exports: 422.33 b / 15.56 T (2.71%) Total Exports: 422.33 B / 15.56 T (2.71%)

7764 (8.1%) Electronic microcircuits

7643 (7%) Television & radio transmitters

8451 (2.6%)

7525

7641 7622

2789

2879 (4.3%) 6511

2929

8997 8310

6584

8947 7788 7628 7522 7763

7638 (3%)

7431 6749 (1.6%) Other 6746 (1.3%) worked iron/steel Iron/steel sheets <3mm tick sheets 6727 (1.2%) Iron/steel coils

6783

6822 (0.83%)

6733

8841 (0.81%)

7722 7788 (0.86%) 7938 (2%) Other electrical 7415 machinery & equipment * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7731 (0.9%) Electric wire

7752

6842 6552 (0.95%)

6531 6514

6770

6745

5833 (1.1%) 5823 (0.93%) Polyesters

3354

214 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

kuwait ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.219 / (116/14)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.82% / (124/16)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.986

0.988

0.99

0.992

-0.02

0.994

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

18 B 14.4 B 10.8 B 7.2 B 3.6 B 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 215

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.07 b / 228.33 B (0.91%) Total Exports: 2.07 B / 228.33 B (0.91%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (79%)

3330 (100%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 32,221 / (8/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 59 % (21/5)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 148 B / (52/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 54,260 / (7/3)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2.7 M / (116/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 88 B / (37/4)

Total Exports: 7.95 b / 2.79 T (0.28%) Total Exports: 7.95 B / 2.79 T (0.28%)

3413 (8%)

3345 (3.9%)

5621 (2.5%)

3352 5221 (0.82%) 6531 (0.8%) 6911 6649

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 87.91 b / 15.56 T (0.57%) Total Exports: 87.91 B / 15.56 T (0.57%)

3330 (92%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

216 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

kyrgyz republic ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.240 / (69/21)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.41% / (15/5)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.02

Distance

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

310 248 186 124 62 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 217

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 121.56 M / 4.30 T (0.003%)

2112 (6.6%)

2116 (5.4%)

6746 (6.1%)

6744 6745 (1.5%)

2111 (3.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

1211 (5.7%)

3510 (11%)

2631 (5%)

6727

2117 6114 2631 (8.3%)

0542 (1.1%) 7832 (2%)

6513 2614 6522

6821 5225 (2.5%)

5241 (1.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6732 (2.1%) 2682 (1.8%)

2687 6512 2686 (1.3%) 2683 2632

2634

Total Exports: 1.63 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

5629 5221

2882

6924

2111 2116 (1.2%)

0240

6899

2820 (1.2%)

8931

Total Exports: 1.63 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

8433 (1.2%) Dresses

8439 (1.4%) 2631 (2.3%) Raw Other women cotton outerwear

8434 (0.99%) Skirts

8423

0579 (2.1%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0914 (1%)

8931 (0.56%) 0546

6421 0545 (1.2%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

8973 (1.6%) Precious jewellery

2890

6644 (3.1%) Unworked surface-ground cast glass

2732 6811

3354

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0542 (2%) Dried or shelled legumes

0577 (1.1%) 0544

8432 (1.1%) Women's suits

6841

7831 (1.5%)

7782 (2.8%) 5241

8435 (3%) Blouses

6612 (4.6%) Cement

6618

5221

9710 (45%) Gold, non-monetary

2882

Food Processing

Total Exports: 470.38 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

9710 (52%)

6783 6733 (1.2%) 6725

2681 (9.5%)

2008

Garments

Total Exports: 470.38 b / 5.90 T (0.01%)

6747 (2.9%)

6899 (11%)

2879 (5%)

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 121.56 m / 4.30 t (0.003%)

2882 (13%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 309 / (105/25) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 32 % (62/15)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 5.1 B / (122/26) GDPpc ≥ USD 974 / (113/26)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 5.3 M / (95/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.6 B / (121/23)

0730

1211 (1.4%) Unstripped tobacco

0575 (1.2%) Grapes & raisins

0223 (1.6%) Fresh milk & cream

2112 (0.63%) 6114

0240 (0.92%)

0011

2685

0980 7782 (2.1%) Incandescent & fluorescent bulbs

3510 (2.5%) Electric current

2820 (1%)

6618 (0.51%)

5221 (0.56%)

218 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lao PDR ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.880 / (102/14)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.24% / (72/12)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.01

0.94

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

220 176 132 88 44 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 219

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 5.28 M / 228.33 B (0.002%)

0711 (26%)

0752 2221

0542

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 5.28 m / 228.33 B (0.002%)

2876 (37%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 224 / (112/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 25 % (82/14)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 5.5 B / (120/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 882 / (114/15)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 6.2 M / (88/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.4 B / (125/16)

Total Exports: 53.05 m / 2.79 T (0.002%) Total Exports: 53.05 M / 2.79 T (0.002%)

2472 (45%)

2820 (11%)

2882 (11%)

6545 0577

2924

2922

2483 (19%)

0711 (4.6%) 2483 (12%)

2471 (6.6%) 2923 (2.1%) 2924 (1.3%)

6811 (6.8%)

6584

8423

6552

8441

2911 (1.9%) 2111

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.39 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.39 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

6821 (38%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

2483 (12%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

3510 (8.4%) Electric current

2472 (5.6%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous

8423 (3.4%) Men's trousers

8441 (2.3%) Men's undershirt

8459 (1.8%) 0711 (3.3%) Green & roasted Other knitted coffee & coffee substitutes outerwear

8451 (3.2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

8462 (3%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

2871 (4%)

8463 (1.6%) 8429 Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers

2732

3222

2876

6899

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0440 (1.4%) Unmilled maize

5221 8439 (0.78%)

7731

2320 (0.95%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

0545

220 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

latvia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.594 / (39/13)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.63% / (53/21)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

Distance

2008

Opportunity Gain

15 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

4.1 k 3.2 k 2.4 k 1.6 k 820 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 221

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.46 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

2482 (11%)

2471 (5.2%)

2472 (3.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2882 (3.4%)

5225 (3.8%)

8423

8439

8431

EXPORT TREEMAP

8434 6514 (1.1%) 8424

8451 8429 8465 6712 (1.5%) 6744

6831 (0.88%) 6716

6841 (2%)

2008

6821 (1.3%)

6584

6733

6731

3345 5824 2631 (2.1%)

6341 6359 0342 0371 (1.2%) 0341

8219 (4.7%)

2483

2111 6114 (0.94%) 5922

6342 (3.7%)

2820 3224 (1.2%)

6992 6770

6353 (3.1%)

2483 (3%) 2472 (2.5%)

6633

8211 6343

6911

2471 (3.3%) 2460

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

3224

6512

0344 6359 (2.1%) 6341

6553

6584

6513 6546 5530 8462 8431 8435 (0.94%) 6519 5334 8921 8434 8429 8459 5629 5621 (0.75%) 0371 (2.7%) 5922 0240 7784 7499 8928 6992 7913 (1.4%)

6343 2460 8211

8219 (1.2%) 5623 (3.9%)

Food Processing

Total Exports: 2.04 B / 5.90 T (0.03%)

6732 (5.7%) 8451 (1.4%) 8465 8439 6514 5417 (2.9%) (1%) (0.99%) 8423

6732 (1.4%)

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 2.04 b / 5.90 T (0.03%)

2482 (17%)

6342 (2.1%)

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 1.46 b / 4.30 t (0.03%)

3330 (28%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,130 / (43/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 28 % (72/17)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 34 B / (79/17) GDPpc ≥ USD 14,937 / (38/7)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2.3 M / (119/24) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.4 B / (80/18)

6841 (3.1%) 2882 (1.5%) 8974

3222 0980 8931 1222 0585 1110 0412 6421

Total Exports: 9.36 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.36 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)

6732 (8.1%) Iron/steel rods

6342 (2.5%) Sheets of plywood

6353 (2.4%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

2482 (5.4%) Worked wood of coniferous

8219 (2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

5417 (3.9%) Medicaments 5530 (0.76%)

8939

5335 (0.53%)

8921

2471 (1.9%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of coniferous

2472 (1.9%) Sawlogs & 6911 (1.6%) veneer logs of Iron/steel non-coniferous structures

2483 (1.1%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

5989 (1.2%)

0240 (0.95%) Cheese & curd

6546 (0.5%) 0412 (3%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

2226 (1.1%) 0813 Rape & colza seeds

0223 (1.4%)

1222 (0.98%) Cigarretes

0371 (1.7%) Fish N.E.S.

0341 0344

6997 (0.86%) 6343 (1.8%) Improved wood & reconstituted wood

2460 (2.5%) Pulpwood

7721 (1.5%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 8121 7842

7436

6359 (1.6%) Manufactured of wood N.E.S. 6783 (0.89%)

6744 (0.87%)

0430 6633 (0.73%)

6746

1124 (2.3%) Alcoholic beverages

7611 (2.3%) Color T.V.

7131 (0.59%)

2820 (2.8%) Iron & 3224 (1.4%) steel waste Peat

0484

8211

6733 6745

1121 (1%) Wine

7861

7868 6749 (0.81%)

3510

7643 (1.2%) Television & 8465 radio transmitters 8451

6584 8423 6552

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6519

5225 (1.5%) Inorganic bases & metallic oxides, hydroxides & peroxides 6612

6841 (0.72%) 2882 (0.69%) 6794

222 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lebanon ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.403 / (44/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.05% / (33/4)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.01

0.015

Distance

2008

0.02

0.025

0.03

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

870 696 522 348 174 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 223

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 275.58 M / 228.33 B (0.12%)

6811 (5.3%) 2919 (5.5%)

2681 (1.4%)

2117 (1.9%)

2682 0114

EXPORT TREEMAP

8921 (2.2%) 6118 2116 2114 5335 8922

0571 (3.3%)

0542 (3.3%)

0572 (1.7%)

2008

0813

EXPORT TREEMAP

7283

0541 7131 (0.77%) 0812 6842 (1.4%)

6781

6421 0484 9610 (2.3%) 8310 0545

6785 6618

8830 2820

7731

2221 6732

6973

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Textile & Fabrics

Garments

0571 (2.4%)

0574 0575 (1.2%) 0572

0579 (3%) 6673 (1.3%) 2882 (2.6%)

5222 5622 (1.2%) 8973 6612 7928 (2.3%) 7821 (1.3%) 0980 0579 0585

0574 (6.6%)

Not classified

Total Exports: 587.44 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

6672 (3.1%) 0545 (7%)

0014

6611

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 587.44 m / 2.79 T (0.02%)

8973 (19%)

5417 (2.3%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 275.58 m / 228.33 B (0.12%)

3330 (29%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 839 / (81/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (123/16)

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 30 B / (82/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 7,138 / (55/8)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.2 M / (105/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.5 B / (105/16)

6612 8421 (3.9%)

0980 6842 (2.2%) 8219 (0.81%) 8122 6584 6624 6911 8471 8921 (4.9%) 8431 8472

8462 (2%) 8433 8310 8439 (1.4%)

8510 (3.4%) 6513 6592

0620 0565 (0.85%) (0.79%) 1110

0541 (3.7%)

0577 2238

8851 2117 (3.5%) (1.2%) 8960

2919 (1.4%) 2111

7929 7272 8124

8423

1211 (1.1%)

7711

2820 (1.5%) 6423 6651

Total Exports: 3.52 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 3.52 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

9710 (10%) Gold, non-monetary

2882 (3.5%) Other non-ferrous base metals

8219 (2.7%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6428 (1.4%) Articles of paper pulp N.E.S.

6911

7162 (4.7%) AC electric motors & generators

6924

9510

7252

7283

7272

7752 (1.1%) 7731 (1.9%) Electric wire 6998

8973 (3.9%) Precious jewellery

6612 (3.7%) Cement

6672 (3.8%) Not mounted diamonds

7414 (0.74%)

6842 (1.5%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

7861

5530 (1.6%) Perfumery & cosmetics

6912

8939 (1.2%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

8921 (1.5%) Printed books & maps

5831 (1.1%) Polyethylene

5832

5839

6613

6423 7853

5834 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7131

0589 (0.97%) 0541 Prepared or preserved fruit 1110 (0.92%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S. 1121 0545

8928 5222 (3.2%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

0565 (1.2%) Prepared or preserved vegetables 0980 (1%)

0620 (0.76%)

5334

7138

7144 (0.83%)

6417 (0.7%)

2820 (6.4%) Iron & steel waste

5622 (6.9%) Phosphatic fertilizers

6997

6353 (0.7%)

6421 (0.69%)

0585

8931 (0.57%)

4235

7169

0574 0571 8433 (0.69%) 8510 (0.57%) 6534

7436 6783 8124 (0.86%) Other iron or steel 0481 tubes & 1211 (1.1%) pipes Unstripped tobacco

224 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

liberia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.128 / (112/18)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.07% / (84/14)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.975

0.98

0.985

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.2 k 960 720 480 240 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 225

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 237.26 M / 228.33 B (0.1%)

6672 (24%)

2771 (5.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7932 (41%)

Total Exports: 1.55 b / 2.79 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 1.55 B / 2.79 T (0.06%)

6672 (20%)

2815 (12%)

2816 (6.1%) 7932 (13%)

2232

7933 (4.3%)

2472 (4.1%)

2320 (9.2%)

2472 (9%)

0721

0711

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7932 (42%) Ships & boats

Total Exports: 1.06 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.06 B / 15.56 T (0.01%) 3330 (25%) Crude petroleum

9710 (1.3%)

5225 6672 (0.71%) 2815 2882 2320 (25%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2820

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 237.26 m / 228.33 B (0.1%)

2320 (39%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 279 / (107/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 126 % (3/1)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 843 M / (128/26) GDPpc ≥ USD 222 / (128/26)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.8 M / (106/20) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.1 B / (126/25)

226 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

libya ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.304 / (119/16)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.99% / (120/14)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.986

0.988

0.99

0.992

0.994

-0.02

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

9.3 k 7.4 k 5.5 k 3.7 k 1.8 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 227

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.96 b / 228.33 B (0.86%) Total Exports: 1.96 B / 228.33 B (0.86%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (92%)

3330 (100%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 9,326 / (26/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 63 % (18/3)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 93 B / (58/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 14,802 / (39/7)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 6.3 M / (86/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 59 B / (50/7)

Total Exports: 7.20 b / 2.79 T (0.26%) Total Exports: 7.20 B / 2.79 T (0.26%)

5111

5621 3352 5834 5121

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 58.72 b / 15.56 T (0.38%) Total Exports: 58.72 B / 15.56 T (0.38%)

3330 (96%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

228 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

lithuania ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.683 / (36/10)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.76% / (47/18)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-0.5 0.6

0.65

-5

0.7

2008

Opportunity Gain

Distance

10 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

7.1 k 5.6 k 4.2 k 2.8 k 1.4 k 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 229

1994

Total Exports: 1.35 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

8424 (1.5%)

0224 (6.6%)

6517 6544 6522

2882 (2.4%)

2881 6841 7599 (2.5%) (0.97%) 6794

8441 8431 8429 8472 2651 6519 2890 (3.2%) 6534 8421 8442 6521 8459 6542 5922 (3.3%) 2482 (3.4%) 2471 (1.8%) 6612

6831 (1%)

6744 (1.4%)

2111

2112

2008

2483

0011 (1.7%) 0371

8431 (1.8%)

3224

0545

7731 (2.3%)

0585 2631

6542

7810 (8.1%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

5621 (3.6%)

6517

6584 (1.2%)

6534 0819 (2.5%)

6544 6521

7761 (3.4%)

7768 7932 7938 7921

8429 2690

8463 3510 (1.5%)

7931

7752

2483 (1.3%) 6353

8211

8212 6343

0240 (2.9%)

7518 0224 (1.9%)

7923

0230

0730 3413 (2%)

6114 2111 6113 03440342 6130

6416

5834

8931 (2%) 0412 2226 1222 (1.4%)

0371

6359

5629 (2.1%) 5831

6421 2882

6612 2890

2820 (1.1%) 3224

Total Exports: 23.79 b / 15.56 T (0.15%) Total Exports: 23.79 B / 15.56 T (0.15%)

8219 (5.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

7731 (1.4%) 7861 Electric wire (1.2%)

7752 (0.72%) 2483 (0.71%)

6911 (1.1%) Iron/steel structures

8211 (1.6%) Chairs & seats

6359 (1%)

6997

0240 (2.6%) Cheese & curd

8212

5621 (5.9%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

0223

0412 (2.7%) Other wheat 2226 & meslin, unmilled

2472

5922 6618

7414

0111 (0.87%) Bovine meat

0013

0114

5629 (6%) Fertilizers

0224

2482

3510

4239

0371 (1.2%)

0574 (1%) Fresh apples

0544 0612

0344 (0.48%)

7821 (1.7%) Trucks & vans

6940

8121

7224

7211

8931 (2.3%) Closable plastic packing

0579 (1.1%) 0730 (0.7%) Fresh or dried fruit 0980 (0.69%) N.E.S.

8463 (1.1%)

8459 (0.59%)

8439

8431

7492 (1.1%)

8710 (2%) Optical instruments

8424

0545 (1.6%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

7832 (0.91%)

5334

1222 (1.2%) Cigarretes

0011

7219

0819 (1.7%) Animal feed and food waste

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

8459 (1.4%)

2471

2226

0546 0586

0342

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

8219 (3.6%)

2482 (2.4%) 5629 (3%)

8435 (1.4%) 8462 (1.3%)

8451 (1.4%) 8434

6727

2820 (5.7%)

Total Exports: 3.80 b / 5.90 T (0.06%)

8424

6342 6416 6343

7752

EXPORT TREEMAP

6353 (2.1%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

8423 (1.9%)

6733

6899

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 3.80 B / 5.90 T (0.06%)

8219 (1.6%) 2472

0240 6113

7522 (1.4%)

6712 (1.5%) 6725

6821 (1.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

8439 (3%)

7761 (1.5%)

7523 (2%)

5621 (6.4%)

6114 (1.2%)

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 1.35 b / 4.30 t (0.03%)

8435 8451 6584 8462 (1.5%) 8434

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,087 / (34/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 50 % (29/9)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 47 B / (73/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 14,034 / (40/8)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

EXPORT TREEMAP

8439 (2.6%)

8423 (1.5%)

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.4 M / (111/22) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 24 B / (64/13)

7938 (1.3%) Special floating structures

5823 (4.6%) Polyesters

6589 8435 2820 (1.8%) Iron & steel waste

8433

6635

3224

2890

5921

5825

5831 (0.82%) 7611 (1.3%) 5834

6770

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5225 3354

230 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

macedonia, fyr ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.018 / (62/20)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.84% / (42/15)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.02

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.9 k 1.5 k 1.1 k 760 380 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 231

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

8510 (3.6%) 8435 (2.8%)

8439 (2.6%)

6584 (2.3%)

8431 (2.4%)

8429 (2%)

2666 6716 (5%)

8462 0586 (13%)

6521 6583 6516 6517

8421 6589 8433 1121 (2.2%) 0546 (1.6%)

6744 (2.1%) 6954 (1%) 6785 7731 (2.7%)

6822

6841 (3%)

6861

2483 (1.1%)

8211

8435 (5.9%)

2116 6113

2111

6842 2924

8483

0112

5221

2665

8459 (1.9%)

8431 (2.6%)

8462 (1.8%)

8423 (1.8%)

8439 (3.7%)

6861 (5%)

6584 8421 (1%) 8422

8429

6851 (1.1%)

6612 (1.3%)

1222 (2.6%)

2875

2871

0544

Mining

1121 (2.8%)

0545 0565

5417 (2.3%)

1110

0980 0730

5629

6123 8434

6744 (8.3%)

6749 (3.7%)

6552 8463 6783 (1.6%)

7731 (2.8%)

6746 (1.6%)

6911

6727

5233

6733

5834

0112 (1.2%) 8483 6935

6716 (2.8%)

6744 (11%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

8441 (3.7%) Men's undershirt

8435 (3.5%) Blouses

6842

2874 (2.2%) Lead ore

2875 (1.4%) Zinc

1121 (1.9%) Wine

2882

2871 (1.6%) Copper

6749 (3.5%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

8431 (2.2%) Women's coats & jackets

8510 (2%) Footwear

8462 (0.87%) 6123 (0.81%)

6746 (1.9%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets

7758

6612 (0.55%)

6785

6623 (0.6%)

8434

8424

8463

0980

6584

8433

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8429

0579

0620

8973 1211 (3.4%) Unstripped tobacco

6727 (3.3%) Iron/steel coils 8423 (1.9%) Men's trousers

0565

6998

8439 (3.4%) Other women outerwear

8459 (2.4%) Other knitted outerwear

0545 (1.2%)

2731 0484 (0.86%)

7932 (1.3%)

Oil

1211 (4.5%)

Total Exports: 3.79 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 3.79 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

6716 (12%) Ferro-alloys

6783 (4%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

8510 (3.1%)

8424 (1.8%) 6114 (1.2%)

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 1.12 b / 5.90 T (0.02%)

7758 2731

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 1.12 B / 5.90 T (0.02%)

8441 (6.4%)

6821 (5.6%)

0561 (1%) 0585 0579 1211 (3.3%) 0545 0980 0589

EXPORT TREEMAP

6513

8424 (1.6%) 6123 8451 8434 (1.1%) 8423 (1.4%) 6552

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

2001

Total Exports: 956.95 m / 4.30 t (0.02%) Total Exports: 956.95 M / 4.30 T (0.02%)

8441 (8.4%)

2008

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,857 / (62/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (47/12)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 9.5 B / (112/24) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,663 / (71/19)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2 M / (121/25) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.8 B / (104/22)

0544 (0.97%) Fresh or chilled tomatoes 5417 (2%) Medicaments

0575

6911 (1.4%) Iron/steel structures 6633 (1%) Non ceramic mineral materials 7731 N.E.S.(0.69%)

5335

6624 8212

4236 8939

6732 (1%) Iron/steel rods

2820 (1.9%) Iron & steel waste

0112 (0.58%) 0372

232 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

madagascar ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.594 / (90/8)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.03% / (34/5)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3 Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

3 2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.02

0.03

Distance

2008

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

140 112 84 56 28 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 233

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 139.57 M / 228.33 B (0.06%)

0422 (9%)

0149 (2.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0752 (19%)

0612 (7%)

0011 2221 (1.2%) 2111

0360

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

0751 (1.6%)

2923 (1.8%)

0611 0615 2924 (1.7%) 0548 0812

0573 (1.7%)

Total Exports: 1.67 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

8423 (19%) Men's trousers

0711 (27%)

0751 (2.7%)

2654 2782 (3.5%) (1.4%)

0612

0577 (0.97%) 2785 2631 6521 (5.4%) 5513 (1.4%)

2785

0615

2879 (4.3%)

0579 (1.7%)

2924

Total Exports: 1.67 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

8451 (13%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

0360 (8.2%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

0371 (2.2%) Fish N.E.S.

0752 (5.5%) Spices other than pepper

0721 (1.1%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

0711 (1%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 0542

5513 (0.97%) 8439 (12%) Other women outerwear

8435 (4.2%) Blouses

8459 (2.4%) Other knitted outerwear

8471 (2.2%) Clothing accessories of textile fabrics

Mining

Oil

Coal

0721 (1.6%)

0564 6597 (0.88%)

0721

Precious Stones

0611 0360 (14%) (1.7%)

2782 (1.6%) 0542 (2.1%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 317.31 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0752 (27%)

2119

5513 (4.4%)

Food Processing

Total Exports: 317.31 m / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0111 (1.9%)

2654 (2.6%)

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 139.57 m / 228.33 B (0.06%)

0711 (31%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 87 / (124/22) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (106/19)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 9.4 B / (113/18) GDPpc ≥ USD 493 / (121/19)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 19 M / (50/11) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.7 B / (119/23)

8462 (1.9%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8441 (1.5%) Men's undershirt

8433

8429

6421

6575

8928 (1.6%) Printed matter N.E.S.

8463

7924 (4.1%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

8997 8424

2879 (2.2%) Other non-ferrous base metals

0586 (0.93%)

0565

6673 2482

8851 8998

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

234 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

malawi ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.024 / (106/15)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.27% / (70/10)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.02

Distance

2008

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

62 49.6 37.2 24.8 12.4 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 235

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 55.56 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 241.37 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0741 (13%)

6521

2221 0548 (11%) 2221 (21%)

2634 (2.3%)

0577 6522

0611 (8.4%)

0542 (4.8%)

0711 (3.6%) 2631 (2%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 241.37 m / 2.79 T (0.01%)

1212 (52%)

0440 (16%)

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 55.56 m / 228.33 B (0.02%)

0741 (39%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 62 / (126/24) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 23 % (88/16)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 4.1 B / (125/23) GDPpc ≥ USD 274 / (127/25)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 15 M / (56/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 926 M / (128/26)

1211 (8.8%)

8462

0612 (2.5%)

0542 8423 (1.6%) 2111

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

1211 (49%) Unstripped tobacco

Total Exports: 926.04 m / 15.56 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 926.04 M / 15.56 T (0.01%) 1212 (18%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0741 (4.2%) Tea

6552 (2.1%) Non synthetic knitted fibres

8451 (1.2%) 2631 (2.5%) Raw cotton

0577

2221

8429

8471

0611 (5.8%) Raw sugar beet & cane 7923 (4.8%) Aircrafts of between 2 and 15 tons

2224 (1.8%) Sunflower seeds

0440 (1.5%) Unmilled maize

0542 (1.8%) Dried or shelled legumes 7861 0751 0711

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0615

2483 5541

236 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

malaysia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.759 / (34/7)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.32% / (20/5)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.8

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.005

0.01

Distance

2008

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

7.4 k 5.9 k 4.4 k 2.9 k 1.4 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 237

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.75 B / 228.33 B (0.77%)

2472 (16%)

2483 (5.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7622 (2.5%)

7763 (1.9%)

8482 2320 (13%)

2008

4243

EXPORT TREEMAP

2232

7415

7522 (4.8%) Digital data processing machines

7768 (2.7%) 8482 (1.8%) Parts N.E.S. of Clothing electronic circuits accessories from rubber

7638 (1%) 7763 (2.7%) Diodes & 7649 (2%) transistors Parts of telecom & sound 7722 recording (0.96%) equipment

7721 (2.3%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

8749 7758

7643 (1.7%) Television & radio transmitters

7788 (0.99%)

7415 (0.93%)

7528 (3.8%) Data processing equipment N.E.S.

7628 6342 (1.4%)

7638 7712

3330 (11%)

8459 (0.91%) 8441 4313 (1.6%)

4244 (1.2%) 0723

6871 (1.5%)

3413 (4.8%)

4312 0589 0360

4242 (11%) Palm oil

3413 (11%) liquified hydrocarbons

7611 (1.4%) Color T.V. 2320 (2%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

4244

0723 (0.59%) 8973 (1.2%)

7641 (1.2%)

7628

7781

7621

7622

8219 (1.6%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6342 (1.5%) Sheets of plywood

7757 7761

6822 (1.2%) 6783 Worked copper & copper alloys

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Food Processing

Garments

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

2483 (4.8%)

7621 4242 (6%)

0721 (1.8%)

0360

2472 (12%)

Total Exports: 198.85 b / 15.56 T (1.28%) Total Exports: 198.85 B / 15.56 T (1.28%)

7599 (9%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7525 (3.2%) Control & peripheral hardware

Textile & Fabrics

7649 (1.8%)

2873 4242

Not classified

Total Exports: 25.96 B / 2.79 T (0.93%)

7764 (13%)

7768 (1.4%) 0589 (1.6%)

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 25.96 b / 2.79 T (0.93%)

7611 (1.5%)

6871 (19%)

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 1.75 b / 228.33 B (0.77%)

2320 (46%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,366 / (32/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 90 % (7/3)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 222 B / (38/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 8,212 / (52/7)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 27 M / (40/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 199 B / (20/6)

2483 (0.94%) 2472 Worked wood of non-coniferous

8748 (1%) 5137 Electrical measuring & controlling 5112 instruments6871 5138 N.E.S. 5831 (0.96%)

6911

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5621 5541

6998

4312 (1.5%) Hydrogenated oils

4313 (1.1%)

8931 (0.93%) 0914 Closable plastic packing 5823

6210 (0.95%) 7853

5833

0360 6514

0224

238 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

mali ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.103 / (110/17)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.87% / (95/18)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.02

Distance

2008

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

150 120 90 60 30 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 239

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 11.89 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Total Exports: 112.69 m / 2.79 T (0.004%) Total Exports: 112.69 M / 2.79 T (0.004%)

2631 (75%)

0011 (31%)

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 11.89 m / 228.33 B (0.01%)

2631 (34%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 152 / (118/18) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 22 % (91/17)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 8.7 B / (116/21) GDPpc ≥ USD 686 / (118/17)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 13 M / (60/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.9 B / (115/19)

2114 (2.5%) 2111 (2.5%)

2119 (1.9%)

2116 (1.3%)

7144 (5.5%)

2223 (11%)

2221 (8.8%) 0012 0350 (5.5%)

0579 (2.8%)

0015 2111 2119

6672 (1.4%) 8960

2114

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.93 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Total Exports: 1.93 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

9710 (79%) Gold, non-monetary

2631 (11%) Raw cotton

0011 (4.4%) Live bovines

7821

7234

0012

5629 (0.92%) Fertilizers 0579

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

240 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

mauritania ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.907 / (128/26)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.29% / (128/26)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2 0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

0.99

-0.02

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

610 488 366 244 122 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 241

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 87.45 m / 228.33 B (0.04%) Total Exports: 87.45 M / 228.33 B (0.04%)

0350 (60%)

2922 (27%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 435.68 m / 2.79 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 435.68 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

0360 (50%)

2815 (40%)

0615 (8.4%)

2789 (4.3%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.96 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

2815 (42%) Not agglomerated iron ore

0342 (6.1%)

0350 0341

Total Exports: 1.96 B / 15.56 T (0.01%) 3330 (18%) Crude petroleum

0360 (12%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

0342 (9.8%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets 2871 (6.9%) Copper

2816 (3.5%) * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

9710 (6.5%) Gold, non-monetary

0814

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 610 / (90/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 55 % (23/4)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 3.6 B / (127/25) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,116 / (106/14)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.2 M / (113/22) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2 B / (114/18)

242 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

mauritius ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.307 / (77/5)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.22% / (73/11)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.02

0.92

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

2.2 k 1.7 k 1.3 k 880 440 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 243

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

1988

Total Exports: 73.47 m / 228.33 B (0.03%) Total Exports: 73.47 M / 228.33 B (0.03%)

0611 (89%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

8462 (5%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 1.02 b / 2.79 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 1.02 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

8451 (18%)

0615 (5.8%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,915 / (60/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 26 % (80/15)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 9.3 B / (114/19) GDPpc ≥ USD 7,337 / (54/2)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (128/26) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.4 B / (111/16)

8441 (7.5%)

8423 (4.1%)

8471 (2.9%) 8463 (2.2%)

0611 (33%)

8459 (1.7%)

0612 (2.8%)

8435 (1.5%) 8422 6584 8472 0615 8465 8851 (3.4%) 8452 8434

8439 (3.7%) 0741 (1.1%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

8451 (3.4%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

0611 (15%) Raw sugar beet & cane

8439 (1.5%) Other women outerwear 8452 (0.73%) 8435 (0.73%)

0371 (11%) Fish N.E.S.

8463 (2.6%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers 8459 (2.2%) Other knitted outerwear

8423 (4.2%) Men's trousers

8431

0741 8973 0371 (1.3%) 8942 8720

Total Exports: 2.45 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.43 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

8462 (20%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8441 (6.4%) Men's undershirt

0612 6672 (1.8%)

8465

8481

0342 (3.1%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

7643 (4.2%) Television & radio transmitters

6672 (2%) Not mounted diamonds

6552

9410 (1.8%) Live animals, N.E.S. (zoo animals, pets, insects, etc) 2820

8973 (1.6%) Precious jewellery

8464 8852 6783

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2871

8931

8972 5121

0819 (0.63%) 8921

5541

6649

5629

6912

244 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

mexico ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.145 / (20/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.50% / (10/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

2008

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

2.5

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

1.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

-0.5

-0.5 0.78

0.79

0.8

0.81

2008

Opportunity Gain

Distance

x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

2.7 k 2.1 k 1.6 k 1k 540 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 245

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.48 B / 228.33 B (0.65%)

0544 (4.9%)

0612 (6.2%)

2929 0615 (1.4%) (1.1%) 0542

2631 (16%)

0422 0440 (2.8%)

6851 (2%)

2785 (1.9%)

2783 6811 (5.7%) (1.9%)

0111 (2.6%)

5513 2632 0611 (1%) 2654 0571 2634

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

0586 (1.6%)

5415 (1.7%)

8942

5224

7788

6783

0579 8921 5221 6349 (1.2%) (0.92%) 6624

6953

2783

6991 8743 7783 7169 7139 7434 6647 6782 7239 7599 (1.7%)

2871 2741 7731 (5.4%)

7712

6428 0545 (1.4%) (0.89%) 6349 0579 0585

7611 (2.1%)

0544

0611

7757 7723

0612

2631 0575 5137 2331

7415

5981

5138

8942 7763 8983 7781 0711 (2%)

1123 0360 (1.5%) 1124 0011 (1.1%)

8720 5834 8423 5222

6514

Total Exports: 291.28 b / 15.56 T (1.87%) Total Exports: 291.28 B / 15.56 T (1.87%)

7810 (9.2%) Cars

7821 (3.2%) Trucks & vans

7721 (2.6%) 7139 Switchboards, relays & fuses

3330 (19%) Crude petroleum

9710 (1.2%)

2882 7783 (0.98%) Auto parts 7849 (5%) Other vehicles parts

8743

7239

6991

7436 7832

7162 (0.81%)

7431

7132 (0.74%)

7758

6811 (0.74%)

7784 7611 (9.6%) Color T.V.

7649 (2.2%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

8942

7523 (1.7%) CPUs

7711 (0.79%)

7752

7414

0545 (0.93%) Other fresh or chilled 8931 vegetables

0544 7149

8124

8720 (1.7%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

7915 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5138

0579

1123

1124

7641

7643 (3.9%) Television & radio transmitters 7415

7731 (3.1%) Electric 8211 (1.3%) wire Chairs & seats

7788 (1.6%) Other electrical machinery & equipment 6725 N.E.S. (0.89%)

7621

Mining

6861 6612

7788 (1.5%) 7621 (2.3%)

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Textile & Fabrics

6811 (1.8%)

7162

7849 (4.4%)

6575 (0.84%) 6354 6513

3330 (26%)

7721 (2.7%)

2741 (6.2%)

0545 (2.1%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Total Exports: 31.57 B / 2.79 T (1.13%)

7132 (4%)

7649 (3.6%) 0459

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Total Exports: 31.57 b / 2.79 T (1.13%)

0616

0360 (6%)

6861

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (8%)

0011 (5%)

2875 (1.7%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 1.48 b / 228.33 B (0.65%)

0711 (7.2%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,736 / (52/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (77/10)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 1.1 T / (13/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 10,248 / (44/3)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 106 M / (11/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 291 B / (16/1)

5530 8423 (0.67%)

246 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

moldova ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.266 / (50/18)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.95% / (5/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.015

Distance

2008

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

440 352 264 176 88 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 247

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

6731 (5%)

8431 (2.5%)

8423 8421 0585 (6.1%) (1.1%)

8510 (2.2%)

8439

6584 (2.1%) 6521 (1.4%) 6724 (1.2%)

0612 (7.6%)

0611 (3.3%)

8422

8424

8443

6522 (1.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

1121 (2.3%)

8431 (2.2%) Women's coats & jackets

8439

2820 6595 6413

8310 (1.5%) Luggage & handbags

8423 (1.3%) Men's trousers

8424 (0.9%)

2226 (2.6%) Rape & colza seeds

8433

8435

0577 (2.8%) Edible nuts

2224 (1.5%) Sunflower seeds

0813 (1.1%) Oilcake 0412

0574 (1.7%) Fresh apples

4232 (0.6%)

1222 (0.79%)

2222

0440

5513

0585 (4.5%)

0565 (1.5%)

1124

6589

8510

8463

8421

8434 6596

8424

8310

8452 8435 0577 (3.4%)

6594

8432

0111 (1.1%)

0224 (1.2%)

0149

2111

7422 (1.1%) 7223

1211 (4.5%)

0612 (1.5%) 2925 (1.2%) 0574

7129

6651 (2.3%)

2732 8742 6353

1121 (11%) Wine

7731 (6.8%) Electric wire

8931 (0.8%)

1211

8219 (2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

0980 (0.72%)

0579 (0.75%) 0583

0612 6991 (0.82%) Refined sugar 8731 (1.2%)

6911

6624 8212

6921 6996

8211

1124 (2.6%)

7239

Mining

Oil

Coal

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Precious Stones

2239 0412 (0.81%)

8429 (1.4%) 8423

8451

6731 (3.1%) Iron/steel wire rod

0430 (2.3%) Unmilled barley

8462 (1.9%)

8422

0565 0585 (1.3%) Prepared or preserved vegetables

8421 4236 (3.2%) Sunflower seed oil

8439 (2.3%)

4236 0430 (1.5%)

8463 (0.76%) 8441

8462 (2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8459 (1.9%) 2224 (3.8%)

Total Exports: 1.60 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

8429 (1.4%) Other men outerwear

6594

8431 (2.7%)

0440

0546

0224 8921 5514

8451 (1.5%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

6123 (1%)

Total Exports: 577.52 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

1121 (29%)

2111 2116 (0.95%) 2112 6114

6732

Total Exports: 1.60 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

8510 (2.2%) Footwear

Total Exports: 577.52 b / 5.90 T (0.01%)

5121

2882 (3.6%)

6996

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

6421

0111 (3.3%)

7371 1211 (1.3%) 4236 2224 6618 (1.5%) 5513 0577 6415

8459 (2.8%) Other knitted outerwear

6594

3510 (6.3%)

6733

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Total Exports: 212.25 M / 4.30 T (0.005%)

7822 (4.2%)

2008

Petrochemicals

2001

Total Exports: 212.25 m / 4.30 t (0.005%)

6725 (18%)

6712 (2.1%)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 440 / (99/23) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 26 % (79/19)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 6.1 B / (118/25) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,696 / (97/24)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.6 M / (108/21) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.6 B / (122/24)

2732 (4.1%) Gypsum, plasters, limestone flux & calcareous stone

6651 (2.9%) Glass bottles

6595 (1.3%)

7491 6975 8741

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8939 2882 (0.99%) Other non-ferrous base metals

6210

6114

6998 8742

0224

248 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

mongolia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.166 / (113/15)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.52% / (107/14)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.01

Distance

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

780 624 468 312 156 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 249

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 4.32 M / 228.33 B (0.002%)

2685 (11%)

2120 (7.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 89.77 M / 2.79 T (0.003%)

2683 (33%)

6114 (3.2%) 2919 (2.9%)

8481 (4.6%) 6123 (1.8%)

2114 6116

8483 (3.9%)

0113 (1.5%)

2687 (9%)

2681 (1.5%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2681 (2%)

2120 (6.1%)

6583

8451

6542

2690 8459

6516

6594 8484

6592

2871 (5.4%)

2789 (2.4%)

0115 2911 (1.7%)

Mining

Total Exports: 89.77 m / 2.79 T (0.003%)

2111 (1.9%)

2682 (1.8%)

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 4.32 m / 228.33 B (0.002%)

2683 (75%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 776 / (83/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 39 % (49/9)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 5.3 B / (121/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,991 / (93/11)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2.6 M / (118/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.1 B / (113/15)

2879 (2.4%)

2872 (1.5%)

2482 (3.1%)

6595

2686 (0.9%)

5232

2631

Total Exports: 2.05 b / 15.56 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 2.05 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

2871 (45%) Copper

3222 (13%) Other coal

2683 (3.6%) Fine animal hair

9710 (9.3%) Gold, non-monetary

2687 0115

0111

2919 2815 (7.6%) Not agglomerated iron ore

2875 (3.8%) Zinc

2785 (3.6%) Quartz metal family 2879 (5.8%) Other non-ferrous base metals

6821 (1.3%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8451 (1.8%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans 8439 (0.6%) 7938

250 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

morocco ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.400 / (83/9)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.60% / (56/6)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.02

0.025

Distance

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

640 512 384 256 128 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 251

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 436.31 M / 228.33 B (0.19%)

0541 (2.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Total Exports: 4.24 b / 2.79 T (0.15%) Total Exports: 4.24 B / 2.79 T (0.15%)

2713 (15%)

2713 (33%)

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 436.31 m / 228.33 B (0.19%)

0544 (7.1%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 645 / (89/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 23 % (87/14)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 89 B / (60/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,769 / (87/13)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 32 M / (36/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 20 B / (66/11)

5222 (13%)

0571 (7.3%)

0544 (2%)

0541 0542

2929 (1.5%) 0542 (4.9%)

0430

2440

5629 (3.8%)

0752 0459 (2.3%)

0571 (17%)

2874 (3.4%) 6851 (1.4%) 2631 (1.2%) 0577 (0.88%) 5513

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

1121 (2.3%)

0545 (2%)

2875 2789 2877 (1.6%)

2879

6118 2919 (0.94%)

8423 (3.4%) 8459 (2.6%)

8510 8451 8434 8431 (1.5%) (0.97%) 8435 8421

0814

8429 8481 8462 (1.2%) (1.2%) 6123

0565 (1.8%) 0589 0585

0561 0546

2517

6592

8439 (2.3%)

5622 (3.2%)

8441 (1.6%)

8452

8310

8424 8310 6584

6592 (1.7%)

6513 6539

0360 (6.3%)

2924 2631

0371 (2.9%)

0341 (1.2%)

0342 (0.86%)

0565 0585 6851 2874 2517 (1.6%) (1.6%) (0.99%) 2785 2789 0546 0545 2871 6811 7763 (1.2%) 6330 7148

Total Exports: 20.36 b / 15.56 T (0.13%) Total Exports: 20.36 B / 15.56 T (0.13%)

5222 (16%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

2713 (13%) Natural calcium phosphates & aluminium

0360 (3.9%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

0371 (3.2%) Fish N.E.S.

7731 (8.1%) Electric wire

0341 (0.89%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets 0342 0814

5629 (5.1%) Fertilizers

5622 (2.7%) Phosphatic fertilizers 7763 (3.2%) Diodes & transistors

8439 (3.4%) Other women outerwear

8423 (2.3%) Men's trousers

8510 (1.4%) Footwear

8435 (1.4%) Blouses

8431 (1.3%) 8462 (1.2%) 8433 8463 8465 Women's coats Knitted (0.99%) (0.97%) & jackets undergarments of cotton 8441 (0.69%) 8452 8422 8429 (1.1%) 8451

8459 (1%)

7721 (1.7%) 0545 (1.3%) Switchboards, relays & Other fresh or fuses chilled vegetables 6577

0579

0565 (1%) Prepared or preserved vegetables

0586

6749 (0.8%) 2882 0544 (1.4%) Fresh or 0571 (2.2%) Fresh or chilled tomatoes dried oranges & m&arines

8434 2929 6123

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6899 (0.63%) 6811

2874 2789

252 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

m0zambique ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.077 / (109/16)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.03% / (90/16)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.01

0.02

Distance

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

130 104 78 52 26 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 253

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 205.11 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

0440 (18%)

4234 6821 (4.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6725 (7.8%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 205.11 m / 228.33 B (0.09%)

0577 (20%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 126 / (121/21) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 28 % (71/13)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 9.9 B / (111/17) GDPpc ≥ USD 441 / (123/21)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 22 M / (44/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.8 B / (108/15)

Total Exports: 320.10 m / 2.79 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 320.10 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

6733 (5.4%)

6746 (4.5%)

0577 (6.4%)

0612 (1.7%)

0615 (1.6%)

1211 (1.5%) 1212 (1.1%) 0813 2631 (15%)

6744 (7.2%)

0741 (6.6%) 0611 (8%)

2231 (6.1%)

2789 2784 6861 2483 2111 (0.99%)

6716 (2.8%)

6749 6783 (1.5%)

0360 (18%)

0571

Total Exports: 2.81 b / 15.56 T (0.02%)

0571 (1.5%)

0611 (3.4%) 6821 (3.9%)

6745 (1.1%)

2911 (1.1%)

4234 2516

2519 2784 3222 6732 (1.5%) 2472 (1.2%)

2879

6581 5322

0412

2877 (1.9%) 2517 (1.9%)

0342 (2.5%)

0542 6575 6716 4243

EXPORT TREEMAP

0612 (1.6%) 0615 (1.2%)

2654 (2.2%)

2008

2879 (2%)

5629 (2.6%) 5222 5322 (1.5%)

2820 (2.9%)

Total Exports: 2.81 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

6841 (60%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

1212 (6.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

2631 (2.1%) Raw cotton

2225 (1.3%) Sesame seeds

0577 (1.3%)

0611 (3.8%) Raw sugar beet & cane

1211 (1.2%) 3510 (9.3%) Electric current

0360 (2.8%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

5621 (2%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

7234 (0.75%) 7239 2483 (0.92%) * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2472

2820 (0.79%) Iron & steel waste

254 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

namibia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.271 / (72/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.56% / (60/8)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.86

0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

2.2 k 1.7 k 1.3 k 880 440 0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 255

2001

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.41 B / 5.90 T (0.02%)

0342 (17%)

0344 (4.3%)

0012 (2.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0360 0371 8928 (12%)

0342 (9.6%)

0111 (3.6%)

0011 (3%)

2860 (7.9%)

0112

6114

8928 (9.5%) 1110

5241 (6.4%)

6821 (3.9%) 2783

9710 (1.9%) 2783

EXPORT TREEMAP

2874

0575 0611

0814 0112 (1.9%)

0371

0360

0012 (1.2%)

1123 (3.4%)

6863 (1.9%)

6861 (2.3%)

7234 7822

2731 9710

8423

0575 (1.1%)

8435 8459

7851 8219 2450

Total Exports: 4.73 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.73 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

2860 (17%) Uranium & thorium

6672 (18%) Not mounted diamonds

0341 (1.4%)

2785

2008

0344 (3.3%)

1123 (3.4%)

6861 (6.4%) Unwrought zinc & alloys

2771

6821 (3.6%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

8928 (19%) Printed matter N.E.S.

0342 (8.3%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

0344 (2.2%) Frozen 1123 (2.7%) Beer fish fillets

0341 2875 (1.7%) Zinc

Mining

Total Exports: 2.51 B / 9.84 T (0.03%)

6672 (31%)

0814 0011

Oil

Total Exports: 2.51 b / 9.84 T (0.03%)

0111 (2.1%) 0341 (1.7%)

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2005

Total Exports: 1.41 b / 5.90 t (0.02%)

6672 (35%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Leather

Petrochemicals

Milk & cheese

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,221 / (58/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 53 % (28/6)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 9 B / (115/20) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,211 / (74/6)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2.1 M / (120/23) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.7 B / (100/12)

2783 (0.55%)

0371

2731

0343 0111 (2.2%) Bovine meat

9710 (1.3%) Gold, non-monetary * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0112 (1%)

0011 (0.92%)

0814

7821 (0.83%)

7851

7234 1212 (1%) Wholly 8219 or partly stripped (0.57%) tobacco 0575 (0.75%) Grapes & raisins

256 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

netherlands ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.044 / (23/12)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.72% / (102/13)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

-0.04

-0.03

Distance

2008

-0.02

-0.01

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

33 k 26.4 k 19.8 k 13.2 k 6.6 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 257

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

7742 (1.1%)

2331 (1.5%)

5137 (1.1%)

6419 5335 0819 6424

5148 (1%) 6871 5415 3345

5161

5155

5162

2926 (2.8%)

0544 5414 5629 (1.5%) 5621 (1%) (2%) 5222 3352

0149 (2.7%) 0111 (2.5%) 0224 (3.4%) 0240 (2.6%)

0114 (2.3%)

5922 (1.1%) 0230 (1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7599 (3.7%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7788 (1.3%) 6712

7511 8983

7938 6672 (1.9%)

0620

3232

2783 1221 4313 3330 3354 1123 0914 0730 0619 6522 (1.4%) 2665 2820 6421 7731 6842 6911 6624 6412 6415 6517 8928 6960

6649

2690

5112 (2.4%)

6591

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Total Exports: 114.32 b / 2.79 T (4.09%) Total Exports: 114.32 B / 2.79 T (4.09%)

5111 (1.3%)

8939 (1.2%)

8822 5829 0819 (1%) 5334 5113 5161 5824 5137 5831 2331 (1.7%) 5839 5138 8996 5148 5514 5836 5232 5156 8983 (1.6%) 7518 7832 6418 (0.95%) 7272 7525 7754 7763 6251 (0.84%) 7449 7591 6572

5417 (1.1%)

0113 (2%)

0240 (2.1%)

6419 0111 (1.6%)

0224 (1.8%)

5413 5335 5834

0114 0013

0251 0149

0230 (1%) 0341

2927 (2.2%)

2926 (2.1%)

0723 2925

5922

0544

0813 1222 (0.99%) (1.2%)

0541

0488 0545 (1.4%) 0565 8931 5121 6842 6412 5621 (0.81%) (0.97%) 0484 0121 1123 6911 0980 6415 (0.81%) 6428 7782 (1.5%) 0730 0619 5823 5833 6514 (1.4%) (1%) 6841 (1.8%) 3414 (2.8%) 6725 6747 5241 2820 8928 6517 6745 7923 2882 6595 5832

Total Exports: 546.06 b / 15.56 T (3.51%) Total Exports: 546.06 B / 15.56 T (3.51%) 7525 (2.7%) Control & peripheral hardware

7518 (2.7%) Office machines N.E.S.

7284 (2.7%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

7832 (2.2%) Tractors for semi-trailers

7442 (0.73%) 7523 (1.6%) CPUs

7638 (1.3%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S. 7641

7528

7648

8942 (1.4%) 5989 (2.3%) 5112 (2%) Chemical products Cyclic hydrocarbons

8996 5111 (1.3%) (1.4%) Orthopaedic appliances

5829 8720 (1.9%) 5839 (1.5%) Medical Other instruments N.E.S. polymerization & 5137 copolymarization products

7741

7272

6954

6251

7212

8741

6418

7429

7219

0723 (0.73%) 0545 (1.5%) Other fresh or chilled 4242 (0.68%) vegetables

0813 (0.77%) Oilcake

4239 4232

2925

0546

1222 (1.4%) Cigarretes

0730

0980 (1.3%) Edible products N.E.S. 0579

4313 0121

4236 7441

0544

6746 (0.97%) 6727 Iron/steel <3mm (0.77%) tick sheets Iron/steel 5161 (1.2%) Ethers, coils0819 (1.1%) epoxides, acetals 7742 (0.9%)

0575

5542

Animal feed and food waste

0111 (1.1%) Bovine meat

0113 (0.88%)

5334 5514

5831 (1.3%) Polyethylene

5834

0488

7938 0114 (0.82%) Poultry meat 0149 0251 5621 (0.75%)

3352 5138

2926 (1.9%) Live plants

2927 (1.8%) Flora

7234

7611 (2%) Color T.V.

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

5989 (1.5%)

0813 5513 7782 (2.8%) 6731 7271

0542 0481 1223 0545 (2.8%) 0484 0565 5121 0980

2919 2111

2008

0723 (1.7%) 2925 6746 (1.4%) 0722 2927 (1.2%) 4243 0541

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 9.95 b / 228.33 B (4.36%)

5417 (1.7%) 8921

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 33,200 / (7/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 63 % (20/2)

Total Exports: 9.95 B / 228.33 B (4.36%)

5989 (1.7%)

0113 (2.4%)

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 873 B / (16/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 53,076 / (8/5)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 16 M / (54/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 546 B / (6/3)

0240 (1.5%) Cheese & curd

5221

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0224 (0.73%)

5121 (1.3%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives

1123 (0.85%)

2820 (1.4%) Iron & 5833 steel waste

8928

6595 5823 (0.82%) 6841 (0.87%)

2511

2882 (0.59%)

7852 6428

0230 0223

5241

2879 6861

6514

258 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

new zealand ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.287 / (48/8)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.91% / (93/13)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.015

0.02

Distance

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

7.2 k 5.7 k 4.3 k 2.8 k 1.4 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 259

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.17 B / 228.33 B (0.51%)

0111 (11%)

2681 (15%)

2471 (3.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0111 (9.4%)

2682 (7.2%) 0015 0230 (13%)

0240 (5%)

2517

0224 (4%) 2117 (3.9%)

2682 (8.2%)

5922 (2.2%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

2517 (1.7%)

2512 2482 2471 (1.2%) (1.3%)

6411 (1.1%)

6413 2519

6416

7752

6512 0579 (4.9%)

0545

5121

6114 6841 (6.2%)

0980 0730 0546 0574 (2.9%)

4113

0224 (6.3%)

0012 5922 (2.9%) 2117 (3.2%)

0230 (5.7%)

0240 (2.5%)

0574 2919 (2.2%) 0360 (1.2%) 2925

Coal

Total Exports: 9.28 B / 2.79 T (0.33%)

0112 (9.2%)

0015 (1.1%) 0116

6411 (1.7%)

4113

Precious Stones

Total Exports: 9.28 b / 2.79 T (0.33%)

2681 (6.3%) 0116 (2%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 1.17 b / 228.33 B (0.51%)

0112 (20%)

Animal Fibers

Leather

Milk & cheese

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,168 / (33/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 26 % (81/13)

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 118 B / (55/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 27,599 / (26/5)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.3 M / (104/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 31 B / (60/12)

2919 (1.6%) 2111

2111 2112 0814 (0.83%)

6115

0542

0343 0360 0342 0344 (1.4%) (0.79%) 0341 0814

2925

6749 6594 5530

Total Exports: 30.59 b / 15.56 T (0.2%) Total Exports: 30.59 B / 15.56 T (0.2%)

0224 (15%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & 0230 (5.2%) Butter cream

0240 (4.9%) Cheese & curd

5922 (3.6%) Glues

0223 (3%) Fresh milk & cream

0579 (3.3%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0980 (2%) Edible products N.E.S.

1121 (2.8%) Wine

2482 (2.5%) Worked wood of coniferous

2471 (2.2%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of coniferous

6416 (0.73%)

0546

6353

6997

0730 0545

1110

5121 0112 (8.4%) Sheep & goat meat

0111 (5.8%) Bovine meat

0360 (1.6%) Fresh, 0344 chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs 0814

0619

6841 (3.6%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

9710 (1.7%) 0488 (1.9%) Malt 0574 (1%) extract & cereal Fresh apples preparations containing less than 50% cocoa

0342 (1.2%)

2919 0118 (0.99%) Other animal meats

4113

0116

0149

0015 2117

6114

2682 (1.2%) Degreased sheep or lambs wool

6418

2681

7188 6731

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2517 (1.2%) 6413 Chemical wood pulp, soda or 2519 sulphate

7932 (0.98%) Ships & boats 6727

8720 (1.1%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 5542

2820 (0.67%)

260 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

nicaragua ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.661 / (97/19)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.60% / (57/10)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.02

0.03

Distance

2008

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

460 368 276 184 92 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 261

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 173.44 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

0711 (15%)

2223 (2.6%)

2008

4233 (2.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2634 (1.7%)

2632

2631 (21%)

0111 (8.6%)

2120

0360 (4.1%) 0573 (14%) 3330 (5.7%)

0813 5530 5162 8510 5852 6210 2483 6924 6932

0611 (2.1%)

Total Exports: 2.54 b / 15.56 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 2.54 B / 15.56 T (0.02%)

0711 (13%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

0542 (3.6%) Dried or shelled legumes

2221 (4.2%) Green groundnuts

0611 (2.3%) Raw sugar beet & cane 0460

0548

8459 (5.8%) Other knitted outerwear

0111 (9%) Bovine meat

0360 (5%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

1211 (0.97%)

0240 (3.1%) Cheese & curd

4234 (0.7%) 4242

8423 (3.9%) Men's trousers

2238 8439 (3.6%) Other women outerwear

0011

0116

1221 (3.3%) Cigars

5121 (1.3%) 1110 (0.74%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives 6421 1124 (0.89%) Alcoholic beverages

8435 (4.7%) Blouses

Mining

Total Exports: 238.78 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0481 0542 2924 2871 (4.8%)

0573 (3.7%)

Oil

Total Exports: 238.78 m / 2.79 T (0.01%)

5922 0612 (1.2%)

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

0711 (42%)

0111 (10%)

0360 (3.6%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 173.44 m / 228.33 B (0.08%)

2631 (40%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 448 / (98/20) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 43 % (39/3)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 5.9 B / (119/21) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,035 / (110/21)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 5.7 M / (91/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.5 B / (109/20)

8462 (2.2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8441 (1.2%) Men's undershirt

8424

0224 (2.1%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream

9710 (3.7%) Gold, non-monetary

0484 0545

7731 (6.4%) Electric wire

8431

2820 (0.67%) 8928

8429 (1.3%)

0341

8451 (0.66%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0712 (0.92%) Coffee extracts, essences or 6733 concentrates

262 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

nigeria ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.418 / (122/21)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.16% / (118/21)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0.955

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

540 432 324 216 108 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 263

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

2008

2221 (20%)

0723 (2.7%)

2631 (2%)

4244 (1.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6871 (6.7%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Meat & eggs

Fish & Seafood

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Total Exports: 7.55 b / 2.79 T (0.27%) Total Exports: 7.55 B / 2.79 T (0.27%)

3330 (92%)

3330 (17%)

2223 2922 (0.8%) 0813 (4.1%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Other Chemicals

1988

Total Exports: 531.08 M / 228.33 B (0.23%)

4234 (5.5%) 2320 (3.2%)

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 542 / (95/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (48/10)

Total Exports: 531.08 m / 228.33 B (0.23%)

0721 (23%)

2232 (5%)

GDP ≥ USD 207 B / (41/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,370 / (99/9)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 151 M / (8/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 82 B / (39/1)

0721 (4%)

2320 (1%)

2472 (2.5%)

0723 2483 2114 6118

6116

2119 2116

5621

Total Exports: 81.97 b / 15.56 T (0.53%) Total Exports: 81.97 B / 15.56 T (0.53%)

3330 (94%) Crude petroleum

7938 (2.1%)

0721 (0.64%) 2320

5530 (0.59%)

5831 (0.64%) 6116 (0.85%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

264 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

norway ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.777 / (33/14)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.08% / (119/16)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

-1 0.91

0.92

0.93

0.01

0.94

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

37 k 29.6 k 22.2 k 14.8 k 7.4 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 265

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.04 B / 228.33 B (0.89%)

6831 (5.6%)

6411 (3.9%)

6412 (2.4%)

2518 (2.3%)

6732 3510

EXPORT TREEMAP

6612 (1%) 2742

2731 6998 2785 2789

7932 (12%)

6861 (1%) 2879 2871

5225

6716 (5.6%)

6415 (2%) 6413 2516

5621 (4.8%)

0814 (4.7%)

7211

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (48%) Crude petroleum

6712

6747 6419 8947 6931 (1.6%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Total Exports: 24.42 B / 2.79 T (0.87%)

3330 (28%)

3414 (12%)

7932 (3.5%)

7938 5629 (2.1%) 5831 (2%) 5822 6733 5221 5239 6747 5113 (1.7%)

6716 (3.2%)

6911 6633

7442

0350 (3.5%)

8741 6411 (2.4%) 6413

5834 5147 5621 (1.1%) 5331

0341 (2.9%)

0350 (1.8%)

2516

5629 (2.3%) 5239 (1.4%) 6725

Textile & Fabrics

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 24.42 b / 2.79 T (0.87%)

6842 2512 (3.7%)

Not classified

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 2.04 b / 228.33 B (0.89%)

6841 (15%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 36,492 / (6/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 39 % (51/7)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 451 B / (24/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 94,568 / (1/1)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.8 M / (98/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 174 B / (26/10)

5221 2671

2120 (2.1%)

4111 0360 (0.97%) 0240 6130

5331

4312 (1.5%)

6421

6841 (6.9%)

6891 (1.4%) 2731 2882

6831 (2.6%)

2517 6861 2815 6415 (1.3%) 2512 2890 2879 6842 (1.6%) 5225 2871

0344 (1.4%)

0342 0371

3510

0814

6633

5823

Total Exports: 174.28 b / 15.56 T (1.12%) Total Exports: 174.28 B / 15.56 T (1.12%) 3414 (28%) petroleum gases

6841

7239

9510 8743 8749

7932 (1.5%) Ships & boats

6716

0341 (2.1%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets

0342 (1.1%)

0350 (0.72%) 0343

6831

3510

6842 (0.7%) 6911

3413 (3.3%) liquified hydrocarbons

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5989 (1%) Chemical products

266 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

0man ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.604 / (91/11)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.44% / (108/10)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 267

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

6811 (23%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

1988

Total Exports: 591.67 M / 228.33 B (0.26%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 13,607 / (20/4) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 63 % (19/4)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 60 B / (66/11) GDPpc ≥ USD 21,649 / (29/5)

Total Exports: 591.67 m / 228.33 B (0.26%)

3330 (77%)

2008

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2.8 M / (115/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 38 B / (56/9)

Total Exports: 4.01 b / 2.79 T (0.14%) Total Exports: 4.01 B / 2.79 T (0.14%)

3330 (95%)

Total Exports: 37.91 b / 15.56 T (0.24%) Total Exports: 37.91 B / 15.56 T (0.24%)

3330 (75%) Crude petroleum

3413 (16%) liquified hydrocarbons

5621 (1.4%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

5832 (1.1%) Polypropylene

7731 (1.8%) Electric wire

0224 (1.2%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream 4242 5121 (0.72%) 6783

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

268 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

pakistan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.398 / (82/3)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.11% / (27/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.02

0.9

0.025

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

120 96 72 48 24 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 269

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 731.88 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

6513 (8.4%)

6545 (9.9%)

6581 (8.4%)

6118 (3.7%) 2634 (1.3%) 6113

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6114 2919

Mining

Total Exports: 4.51 B / 2.79 T (0.16%)

6522 (5.2%)

6521 (3.5%)

2631 (19%)

0615 (2%)

2929 (1.2%)

6534 (2.3%)

8510

0350 8947 (0.76%) 2911 2681 2682

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Total Exports: 4.51 b / 2.79 T (0.16%)

6592 (1.1%)

2633

0422 (3.9%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

6592 (5.7%)

6549 2631 (15%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

6513 (14%)

6521 (4.6%)

6522 (4%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 731.88 m / 228.33 B (0.32%)

2640 (26%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 122 / (122/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (119/4)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 164 B / (49/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 987 / (112/3)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 166 M / (6/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 20 B / (67/2)

0422 (5.7%) 6584 (5.6%)

8462 (2.3%)

0360 (1.3%)

8439 (1.9%) 8481 (3.4%) 8441

6531 6589

0421 (1.7%)

8435

6116 6114 8423 8459 (2.3%) (2.2%) 8424 8472 8463 6560 8442 6113 (1.5%) 6115

1222 0579

0360 (1.8%)

8947 (1.6%)

0350

8720 6582 (1.3%)

2682

Total Exports: 20.30 b / 15.56 T (0.13%) Total Exports: 20.30 B / 15.56 T (0.13%)

6584 (12%) Linens & furnishing textile articles

8481 (4.2%) Clothing 8423 (3.9%) Men's accessories from leather trousers

8462 (3.8%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

0422 (14%) Semi or wholly milled rice

0615

0612

8459 (3.1%) Other knitted outerwear

8439 (1.7%) Other women outerwear

8510 (0.73%) 6552

8429 6589 (4.7%) Other textile articles N.E.S.

0571

8451 6612 (3.2%) Cement

8471 8472 (1.8%) Knitted clothing accessories of textile fabrics

8464 (1.2%) null

6513 (6.8%) Cotton yarn

7281 (0.65%)

6783

8424 8463

6522 (8.5%) Finished cotton woven fabrics

8947 (1.3%) Sporting goods

6521 (4%) Unbleached cotton woven fabrics

8973 (1.3%)

4312

0579

5121 (1.2%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives

2879

6534 (1.3%) 6592 (1%) <85% Knotted discontinuous carpets synthetic woven fabrics * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6116 (1.2%) Leather 0342 of other hides or skins 0360 6114 0341 (0.76%)

8720 (1.5%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 3352

6582

5823 (1.1%) Polyesters

6960

270 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

panama ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.831 / (30/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.58% / (9/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.84

0.85

0.86

0.87

0.005

0.01

Distance

2008

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.5 k 1.2 k 900 600 300 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 271

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 162.06 M / 228.33 B (0.07%)

5415 (7.4%)

5162 5137

8942

0611

0721

EXPORT TREEMAP

7932 (52%) Ships & boats

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Total Exports: 1.99 B / 2.79 T (0.07%)

0573 (24%)

8921 (1.1%)

0360 (5.4%)

7938 (1.6%) 8851 (1.3%) 7933

0814 0111

Total Exports: 1.99 b / 2.79 T (0.07%)

5530

8822

0360 (8.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

7932 (38%)

5417 (5.5%)

5413 (2.8%) 5155 (1.6%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

1988

Total Exports: 162.06 m / 228.33 B (0.07%)

0573 (50%)

2008

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,421 / (70/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 21 % (96/13)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 23 B / (92/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,821 / (57/8)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.4 M / (110/18) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.8 B / (99/17)

2820 (1.1%)

6672 (4.6%)

6673 8973 (1.8%) (1%) 9710 2882 8921 5139 5156

6960 8960

0342 (5.2%) 6842 6673 0980

7638 (1.4%)

7611 7628

7491 7234

0341

8421 8459 0350 (0.97%) 8462 8439

5530 5413 0579 8960 (0.92%)

8451

7642

Total Exports: 4.83 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.83 B / 15.56 T (0.03%) 7638 (2%) Video & sound recorders N.E.S.

0342 (3.1%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

0360 (2.1%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

7611 (1.9%) Color T.V.

0343 (1.6%)

0341 (2.3%) Fresh or chilled 0344 (1.5%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets fish fillets 7415 (1.5%) Air conditioning machines

7642

0579 (6.4%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0545

8983 6421

7621 0573 (2.5%) Fresh or dried banana & plantains

7641 7234 (1%) Construction & mining machinery 7784

7758

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6672 (1.6%) Not mounted diamonds

0548

7247 8851 (0.64%)

7491 7938

0711

8842

7752

5416

2820 (0.88%)

272 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

papua new guinea ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.577 / (124/16)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.89% / (123/16)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

880 704 528 352 176 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 273

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 53.98 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

0711 (25%)

2472 (5.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 53.98 m / 228.33 B (0.02%)

2231 (29%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 883 / (80/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 73 % (10/4)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 8 B / (117/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,218 / (102/13)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 6.6 M / (85/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.8 B / (91/13)

Total Exports: 1.39 b / 2.79 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 1.39 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

2871 (60%)

0721 (4.7%)

4242 (3.9%) 2231 (2.3%)

4243 (1.7%) 0711 (11%) 4243 (16%)

2482 (1.7%)

0721 (9.9%)

2483

6341

2472 (12%)

0360

0360 (1.8%)

2221

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

9710 (25%) Gold, non-monetary

2911 2119

2119 (1.7%)

2320 (4.8%) 0577

Total Exports: 5.81 b / 15.56 T (0.04%)

Total Exports: 5.81 B / 15.56 T (0.04%) 2871 (21%) Copper

4242 (8%) Palm oil

0721 (3.2%) Raw & roasted coffee beans

4243 (1.3%)

4244

2231 2320

0711 (3.5%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes 3330 (22%) Crude petroleum 2472 (9%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of non-coniferous

0371 (1.4%) Fish N.E.S.

0342 (0.7%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

274 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

paraguay ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.474 / (86/15)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.50% / (63/13)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.01

0.02

Distance

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

770 616 462 308 154 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 275

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 54.53 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

5513 (3.9%)

4244 (5.3%)

2631 (3.5%)

2235 (2.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 54.53 m / 228.33 B (0.02%)

0149 (26%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 776 / (84/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 29 % (69/8)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 17 B / (98/17) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,705 / (88/18)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 6.2 M / (87/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 4.8 B / (98/16)

Total Exports: 826.24 m / 2.79 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 826.24 M / 2.79 T (0.03%)

2222 (39%)

2631 (23%)

6114 (3.7%)

0813 (3.5%) 0711 (4.9%) 0742 (1.5%) 2222 2472 (13%) 0141 (3.7%) 2111 (2.4%)

0115 (2.8%) 6118 2119 (1.9%) (1.2%) 2919 (1.2%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

4242 (1.1%)

6116 0111 (1.9%)

4243 2483 (5.3%)

2483 (3%)

0980 (4.7%)

0711 (12%)

1211 6341 3510

2120 (2.1%)

5322 (3.6%)

0813 (4.1%)

0742 (2.2%) 5513 4232 (0.83%) 4249

2685

1212 8439 5322 4244

8429

Total Exports: 4.84 b / 15.56 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 4.84 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

2222 (32%) Soya beans

2225 (2.2%) Sesame seeds

0111 (13%) Bovine meat

0422 (0.63%) 2631 (0.55%) 0813 (12%) Oilcake

4232 (11%) Soya bean oil

6114 (1.7%)

2919

0440 (3.7%) Unmilled maize 0612 (1.1%) 3510 (6.6%) Electric current Refined sugar

2483 (1.2%) Worked wood of non-coniferous

0412 (3.3%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

2450 (0.86%) Fuel wood & charcoal

0611 (1.2%) Raw sugar beet & cane 4236 (1.8%) Sunflower seed oil

2224

6725 1222

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2820

8931

276 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

peru ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.576 / (89/17)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.13% / (79/16)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.02

0.9

0.03

2008

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.1 k 880 660 440 220 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 277

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 949.54 M / 228.33 B (0.42%)

2871 0814 (29%) (4.1%)

4111

EXPORT TREEMAP

2871 (6%)

6861 (3.8%)

0612 (6.7%)

0711 (5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 31.29 b / 15.56 T (0.2%)

8462

2666 6851 (1.1%) 2876

2815 (2.1%) 8973 (2.9%)

2789

2816 (1.4%) 2890 5225

0612 2631 (1.2%)

2929 0723 2927

6822 5224 6931 5322 5912 6863 7731

0565 (0.86%)

Total Exports: 31.29 B / 15.56 T (0.2%)

9710 (21%) Gold, non-monetary

0814 (5.3%) Meat and fish flour, not for humans

4111 (1.4%) Fat & oils of marine animals 0360 (0.99%) 0342

8462 (3%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

8459 (1.4%) 8451 Other knitted outerwear 8452

6821 (10%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

0711 (2.4%) Green & 0751 roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

2879 (4.1%) Other 2875 (4.8%) Zinc non-ferrous base metals

6811 (2.3%) Unwrought silver

0565 (1.6%) Prepared or preserved vegetables

0545

0579 0575

2874 (3%) Lead ore

Mining

Oil

Coal

6513 (2.7%) 6521

2631 (6.4%)

6861 (2.3%)

2871 (18%) Copper

Precious Stones

6811 (3.3%) 6542

0611

2008

0814 (17%)

0711 (5%)

2874 (6.2%) 6851 (2.8%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 3.00 B / 2.79 T (0.11%)

6821 (19%)

2875 (9.4%)

6811 (4%)

Food Processing

Total Exports: 3.00 b / 2.79 T (0.11%)

2879 2875 (4.9%) 2874 (4%)

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 949.54 m / 228.33 B (0.42%)

6821 (23%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,085 / (75/10) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 24 % (85/11)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 129 B / (54/7) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,477 / (73/14)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 29 M / (37/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 31 B / (59/7)

6851 (0.98%)

6861 (1%)

2815

6871 (1.6%) Unwrought tin & alloys

6822 (1.5%) Worked copper & copper alloys

5222 2816 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5224

2483

278 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

philippines ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.032 / (59/9)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.50% / (11/3)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.01

0.92

0.02

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

610 488 366 244 122 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 279

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

1988

Total Exports: 1.07 b / 228.33 B (0.47%) Total Exports: 1.07 B / 228.33 B (0.47%)

2231 (15%)

4243 (8.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7788 0611 (2.3%) 0612 (13%)

0615 0577 (3.2%) 2871 (12%)

8471

8459 (2.1%)

0812

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7764 (31%) Electronic microcircuits

8997 (1.6%)

0589 0586 (1.1%)

8465

Mining

Oil

Coal

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Precious Stones

2871 (4.6%)

6821 (4.4%)

7768 8423 (1.2%) 8463 (1%)

0612

2231 2659 0813 0577 2816 (2.4%) 2872 (1.2%) (1.2%) 2655 6342 0360 (4%) 0589 (2.4%) (1.5%)

2483 (3.2%)

8481

8433 8441

8421

0573 (5.7%)

6716 0711

8431

8462

7921 4243 (6%)

7648

8510

8481 0813 2655 (1.7%) (1.7%)

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 8.58 B / 2.79 T (0.31%)

7599 (3.2%)

7763 (2.2%)

8439 (2.7%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Total Exports: 8.58 b / 2.79 T (0.31%)

7764 (14%)

2472 (30%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 545 / (94/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 30 % (66/11)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 167 B / (48/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,844 / (95/12)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 90 M / (12/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 49 B / (54/11)

7731 6584 8452 8471 8435

8211

0579 (1.2%)

6341

6353 8851

0371 (1.1%)

0585

0341 5629 (0.97%) 5222

Total Exports: 49.20 b / 15.56 T (0.32%) Total Exports: 49.20 B / 15.56 T (0.32%) 7525 (13%) Control & peripheral hardware

7599 (4.3%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7849 (4.8%) 6821 (3.4%) Unwrought Other copper & copper alloys vehicles parts

9710 (0.95%)

2872 4243 (2.4%) Coconut oil

0573

2816 0577 (0.56%)

2929 7763 (4.2%) Diodes & transistors

7788 (2.8%) Other electrical machinery & equipment N.E.S.

7731 (2.1%) Electric wire 8459 (1.1%)

8811 (1.6%)

8439 (0.71%) 6353 (2.1%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

7522 (3.4%) Digital data processing machines

7712 (2.9%) Parts of electric power machinery N.E.S.

7649 (1.5%) 7768 (1.4%) Parts of telecom Parts N.E.S. of & sound electronic recording circuits equipment 7641 7415 7722 7591

8841

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7721 (1%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251 0371 (0.7%)

7929 (0.66%)

8441

8431 8463

0589

5231

0342 5121

2820

280 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

poland ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.020 / (25/6)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.07% / (30/12)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1

0.5 0

2 1.5 1

0.5 0

0.55

0.6

0.65

-0.03

-0.025

Distance

2008

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

4.5 k 3.6 k 2.7 k 1.8 k 900 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 281

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

0111 (3.3%) 0011 (3%) 2482 (6%)

6732 (1.4%)

0015 (1.1%)

0230 (2.2%) 5922 (1.8%)

2460 6841 (2%)

2919 (1%) 2112 6725 6747 6760 6940 7915 0612 (3.7%) 6731

6745

7919

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

0615 0542

8942

7491

5148 5155 (0.95%)

5621 2783 2732 3352 0482 0611 2925 6522 (2.2%) 6549 2665

7914 6724

0541

4239 (1.1%)

6584

Total Exports: 171.88 b / 15.56 T (1.1%)

7810 (7%) Cars

7132 (2.8%) Internal combustion engines for motor vehicles

7821 (1.6%)

8997

8121

7783 8743 7371

7187 7188

6731

7272 7239

8211 (3%) Chairs & 8219 (2.6%) seats Furniture parts N.E.S.

7436

6732 (0.63%) 6359 (0.62%)

6842

7752 6416

6428

5542

6725 (0.91%)

6822 (0.7%)

6733 (0.89%)

6744

7932 (2.3%) Ships & boats

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

6911 (1.7%) Iron/steel structures

6997 6353

6960

6652

6924 6415

8939 (1.7%) 5530 (1.6%) 5831 Miscellaneous Perfumery & articles cosmetics of 5832 plastic 5621

6991

6731

7522

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

7234 (1.1%)

8212 7491

7239

7781

7284 7413 (1.1%)

7731 (2.3%) Electric wire

7783

7751 (0.64%)

7219 (2.1%)

0149 (1.9%) 0111 0114 2482 8219 6732 (1.5%) (1.3%) 0015 0011 (1.3%) 7414 8211 6911 2471 2741 (3.9%) 0118 0344 5922 0224 3510 7731 6997 3221 6612 6811 2742 0360 2120 6652 6643 5225 6861 5417 (3.4%) 0586 0545 7416 6733 (1.9%) 7642 7525 (1.1%) 0585 7528 5232 5231 0546 0579 6822 (1.6%) 0565 8431 8424 8421 6744 0615 (0.85%) 8429 8423 7782 7932 0612 8462 8435 (1.4%) 2226 7119 8441

7492 (0.65%) 7832

7611 (3.9%) Color T.V. 7649 (1.7%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

Total Exports: 11.38 B / 2.79 T (0.41%)

3232 6821 (3.7%)

Total Exports: 171.88 B / 15.56 T (1.1%)

7721 (1.2%) 7831 Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251 7758 (0.76%)

7139 (0.66%) 7849 (5.9%) Other vehicles parts

5413

5629 6612 3232

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 11.38 b / 2.79 T (0.41%)

6664 6652 0586 0545 0589 6643 (1.9%) 7852 0579 5981 6861 (1.6%) 5232 5239 0819

2483 6416

2120 (1.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

3222 (16%)

6953 0121 (6%)

2741 (4.7%)

0118

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 1.03 b / 228.33 B (0.45%)

0114 (1.9%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,511 / (41/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 33 % (61/14)

Total Exports: 1.03 B / 228.33 B (0.45%)

0149 (11%)

6712 (3.2%)

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 528 B / (18/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 13,857 / (41/9)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 38 M / (32/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 172 B / (27/2)

5629

7782

7711 6252

6210

3232 (1.8%) Coke 6821 (1.4%) 2882 & semi-coke of coal Unwrought 6998 copper & copper 6794 alloys 3222 (0.99%)

6811

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8931 (0.7%)

0484

0114 (0.66%)

0980 (0.66%)

0585

0111 (0.56%)

0730

0240

0350

0545 6421 2820

1222 (0.65%)

282 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

portugal ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.696 / (35/15)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.30% / (69/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3 Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

3 2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

Distance

2008

Opportunity Gain

15 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

5.3 k 4.2 k 3.1 k 2.1 k 1k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 283

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

6575 (3%) 6522 (6.3%)

2517 (3.6%) 5981 (2.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Total Exports: 11.38 b / 2.79 T (0.41%) Total Exports: 11.38 B / 2.79 T (0.41%)

8510 (9.8%)

6672 (8.4%)

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 816.81 m / 228.33 B (0.36%) Total Exports: 816.81 M / 228.33 B (0.36%)

8472 (4.4%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 5,281 / (39/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 22 % (90/12)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 252 B / (36/16) GDPpc ≥ USD 23,708 / (28/16)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 11 M / (67/9) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 56 B / (51/15)

6584 (4.8%)

2517 (7.1%)

2518

1121 (4.4%)

6413

6584 (2.5%)

6513 (4.2%)

8510 8471 (1.7%)

6521 (1.7%)

6581 6592 1121 (12%)

0565 (6.5%)

2518 (1.2%) 6351 (1.6%) 6416 6973 6343

2482 (1.4%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

8973 6577 6352 6991 6731

5622 5621 (0.91%) 6545 (1.3%)

6613 (1.4%)

8459 (4.1%) 8462 (3.4%)

2731 2742 2879

5417 (1.1%)

4235 (1.3%) 0577 (1.5%)

5981

8451 (4.4%)

6652

2440 (4.2%) 6330 (5.7%)

2516

8439 (1.9%) 8429 (1.5%)

6575 8424

8423 (2.7%)

7499 (1%) 7621

8434 8435 6589

6651 0360

6534

6522

7731 (1.6%)

6353 6341

6666 (0.92%) 6665

6624

7132 (1.4%)

8441 (2%)

6716

6343 8219

6513 6516 6514

7611

6330 (4.3%)

0546

8431

8452 6123 8472 8463

7781 7131

2482 (1.6%)

7831 5111 6991 5989

5112 0371

0342 6613 (1.4%)

5831 (1.2%) 7781 7711 6644

0341

6573 3352 2731

6651 2440

Total Exports: 56.14 b / 15.56 T (0.36%) Total Exports: 56.14 B / 15.56 T (0.36%)

7810 (6.6%) Cars

7849 (5.6%) Other vehicles parts

7764 (4.5%) Electronic microcircuits

8510 (4.5%) Footwear

8462 (2.2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

6330 (2.6%) Cork manufactures

1121 (2.1%) Wine 6584 (1.6%) Linens & furnishing textile articles 7821 (1.9%) Trucks & vans

6251 (1.8%) Tires & pneumatic for cars

7492 (1.1%) Valves

7139

7161

7499 (1.3%) Non-electric 7758 parts of machinery 7436 N.E.S. 7731 (2.2%) Electric 8211 (1.8%) 6911 (1.1%) wire Chairs & seats

7621 (2.7%) Vehicles radio receivers

8219 (1.2%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6924 (0.61%) 6353

4235

0484 0980 6421

8931

1110

6522

6973

6415

6413

6997 2517 6633

6732 (1.4%) Iron/steel rods

8459 (1.2%) 8451 Other knitted outerwear

6647

7721 (1.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

6624 (0.99%)

0565 (0.71%)

6575

6731 6991

7442

8423

6343

7852

6665

8939 (1.2%) 5334 Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5831 5834 (0.95%) Polyethylene 6841

2882 6998 2731

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5111 (0.89%) Acyclic hydrocarbons 5112 (0.71%) 3352 2871 (1.4%) Copper

6651 (0.93%)

6613

0360 0371

5823

0342 0341 0350

0223

5833

1222 (1.2%) Cigarretes

0612

0813

284 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

qatar ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.438 / (85/10)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.90% / (122/15)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.976

0.978

0.98

0.982

0.984

0.986

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

43 k 34.4 k 25.8 k 17.2 k 8.6 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 285

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 334.93 m / 228.33 B (0.15%) Total Exports: 334.93 M / 228.33 B (0.15%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 2.26 b / 2.79 T (0.08%)

3330 (75%)

3330 (100%)

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 43,174 / (5/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 50 % (30/6)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 111 B / (56/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 86,436 / (2/1)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (127/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 55 B / (52/8)

Total Exports: 2.26 B / 2.79 T (0.08%)

5831 (5.1%)

5111 (2.6%)

3345 (1.5%)

5621 (2.7%) 6732 (4.8%)

6731 (2.5%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (50%) Crude petroleum

Total Exports: 55.34 b / 15.56 T (0.36%) Total Exports: 55.34 B / 15.56 T (0.36%) 3413 (45%) liquified hydrocarbons

5831

5113

5161

6727

5121 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

286 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

romania ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.936 / (27/8)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.39% / (16/6)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

2008

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-1 0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

-0.01

-0.005

Distance

2008

0.005

0.01

0.015

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

2.3 k 1.8 k 1.3 k 920 460 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 287

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

2482 (12%)

2483 (9.2%)

2460

6343 0011 (4%)

6351

0012 (0.93%) 0116 0114

EXPORT TREEMAP

6712 (3%)

7932 (2.1%)

6724 2331 2919 (1.2%) (0.94%) 3345 2682

0545

0561

0565

6731 (1.3%)

7234 (1.6%)

7452

5232 (1.4%)

5621 (1.2%)

5239

3351

8997

6592

6733 (1.9%) 6259 7782 6732 (1.4%) 2482 7752 6342

8211 (2.8%)

6783 6746

8510 (2.7%)

8429 (1.5%)

8431 (2.1%)

8439 (1.4%)

8451 8423 8459

8441

8421

8463

6749 7915 (1.1%)

7522

5621 (6.9%)

5629 (2.6%)

8424 8462 8434 8435

5834 (1.9%) 3345

8997 8472 6584 8432

2483 6652 (0.9%) (1%) 8422 6842 6643 6841 (6.8%) (0.87%) 6997 2481 6416 6343 6359 3510 6413

5232 (1.5%)

5831 0113

0440

0149 0545 0579 5121 2665 7912

7491 (1.7%) Roller bearings

6782 (1.4%) NULL 7731 (7.7%) Electric wire

7431 (1.5%) Air pumps, vacuum pumps & compressors

7239 (1.1%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts 7783 N.E.S. 7369

7132 7162

8219 (2.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

8211 (1.9%) Chairs & seats

2482

2483

6842 (1.5%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 5831

6783

7525

6931 6252

5834

7712 8947

7915 (1.1%) Not mechanically propelled railway for freight 7931

8431 (1.1%)

6997 (0.73%)

7711

3510

7752

6416

6343

5621 (1.9%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

6210 (0.55%) 5829

6911

2224 8742

8451 (0.9%)

7414

0412 (1.5%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

8435

8441

1222

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8429 8434

8459

2226 (0.99%) Rape & colza seeds

2820 (2.7%) Iron & steel waste

2882

6998

0430

5629 5232

8462 (0.57%) 8433

6353

7643 (1.7%) Television & radio transmitters

8423 (1.4%) 8439 Men's (1.2%) trousers

6123 (1.1%)

7493

6746 (0.98%)

8510 (3.7%) Footwear

7853

8463 6589

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

6744 (5.7%)

6782 7162

6760 7919 7842 7224 7187 8219 (7.3%)

0121 6421 8510 (2.1%) 6522 (1%)

Tobacco

Total Exports: 6.26 B / 2.79 T (0.22%)

7491 (1.7%)

0579

7491

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Cereals & veg. oils

Total Exports: 6.26 b / 2.79 T (0.22%)

7822

7915 0586

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 49.60 b / 15.56 T (0.32%) Total Exports: 49.60 B / 15.56 T (0.32%)

6251 (2%) Tires & pneumatic for cars

7932 (3%) Ships & boats

EXPORT TREEMAP

7361

0577 6612 (3%) 0575

7758 (0.94%)

6727 (1.9%) Iron/steel coils

0440 (2.7%) 6841 (4.8%)

0544 0460 (1.8%) (1.5%)

0113 0230 (1.5%)

7849 (6.3%) Other vehicles parts

6744 (2.4%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

Other Chemicals

4236 (4.8%)

2472

0149 (1.2%) 0913

7721 (2.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

1988

Total Exports: 558.90 M / 228.33 B (0.24%)

0240

2008

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,306 / (56/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 25 % (84/21)

Total Exports: 558.90 m / 228.33 B (0.24%)

0542 (2%)

0111 (8%)

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 200 B / (43/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 9,300 / (49/12)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 22 M / (45/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 50 B / (53/9)

288 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

russian federation ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.324 / (46/17)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.58% / (59/23)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

-1 0.87

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.02

0.93

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

3.3 k 2.6 k 1.9 k 1.3 k 660 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 289

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP*

Total Exports: 3.05 B / 228.33 B (1.34%)

2482 (10%)

2471 (8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP*

2460 (2.7%) 6812 (5.7%)

6841 (2.2%)

6831 (3.4%)

2481 0813 6712 (3.4%)

2742 6672 (5.4%)

2784 2879 3232 2877

* Values for USSR

2008

2483

6725 6727 (1.4%) (1.2%) 6716

7499 (3.6%)

5621 5623 (1.2%) 2713 (2%)

2120 (2.1%) 6522 6521

6841 (2.7%)

5241 (1.5%)

0542 6130 4113 4111

3222 (2.1%)

6672 (2%)

7234 (1.4%)

2815 (1.1%) 2816

7126

5225 (1%) 6821 (0.88%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

2472 7187 7239 6712 (1.1%) 6716 6725 7224 7931 7919 7915 5623 0371 2631 (1.2%) (1.8%)

7842 (1.4%) 5621 (1.7%)

3413

2482 (2.7%)

2471 (3%)

6831 (1.9%)

3414 (8.7%)

Precious Stones

3510 (3.3%)

0612 (1.7%)

2820

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 44.43 B / 2.79 T (1.59%)

6812 (2.5%)

4236 (2.4%)

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 44.43 b / 2.79 T (1.59%)

3330 (39%)

2631 (6.2%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 3.05 b / 228.33 B (1.34%)

3330 (18%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,346 / (47/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 28 % (70/16)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 1.7 T / (8/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 11,743 / (42/10)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 142 M / (9/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 475 B / (10/1)

3345 2331 5221

2111 2820

5112

5121

* Values for USSR

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (49%) Crude petroleum

Total Exports: 474.53 b / 15.56 T (3.05%) Total Exports: 474.53 B / 15.56 T (3.05%) 3414 (21%) petroleum gases

6841 (2.4%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

6725 (3.5%) Iron/steel billets

6727 (0.93%) 6712 Iron/steel coils (0.82%) 6812 (1.2%) Unwrought metals of platinum 3222 (2.2%) Other coal

6716

6822 (0.91%) 6745 Worked copper & copper alloys 7187 5623 (1.4%) 5629 (1.3%) Potassic fertilizers Fertilizers

3232

3221

6831 (1.6%) Unwrought nickel & nickel alloys

5621 (1.1%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 2482 (0.89%)

2741 2816

5225

2471

0412 (0.91%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

6732 2820

6811 2517 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2331 (0.59%)

290 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Saudi Arabia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.201 / (68/7)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.80% / (99/9)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.964

0.966

0.968

0.97

0.972

0.974

0.976

0.978

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

13 k 10.4 k 7.8 k 5.2 k 2.6 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 291

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.22 b / 228.33 B (0.97%) Total Exports: 2.22 B / 228.33 B (0.97%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (82%)

3330 (99%)

Total Exports: 51.42 b / 2.79 T (1.84%) Total Exports: 51.42 B / 2.79 T (1.84%)

3413

5112 (2.1%) 5113 5831 (1.7%) 5621 5121 (3.2%)

7144 3354

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 318.83 b / 15.56 T (2.05%) Total Exports: 318.83 B / 15.56 T (2.05%)

3330 (90%) Crude petroleum

5831

5832 5112

5621

3351 7938 7921

5121

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 12,859 / (22/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 67 % (16/2)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 476 B / (23/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 19,200 / (32/6)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 25 M / (41/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 319 B / (15/1)

292 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Senegal ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.287 / (74/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.27% / (25/4)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.82

0.84

0.86

0.02

0.88

0.025

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

240 192 144 96 48 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 293

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 177.55 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

2221 (20%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Total Exports: 551.69 m / 2.79 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 551.69 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

0360 (15%)

2713 (12%)

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 177.55 m / 228.33 B (0.08%)

4234 (26%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 179 / (114/16) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (111/22)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 13 B / (106/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,079 / (107/15)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 12 M / (63/18) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 2.2 B / (112/17)

4234 (15%)

0813 (10%)

2631 (2.8%)

2922 6672 (3.5%)

2877 (1.8%)

0371 (11%) 0615 2713 (15%)

2783 (1.5%)

2771 (2.3%) 0813 (14%) 4244 (3.7%)

0460 (2.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0341 (4%)

6522 0360 (2.2%) (0.8%) 6513 0545 9410 8510 (1.3%) 6341

2782 (1.5%)

0344 (3.4%)

6672 (1.4%)

6521 (1.4%)

1222

2008

0342 (5.8%)

5222 (5.1%)

Total Exports: 2.19 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

5222 (18%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

5629 (1.4%)

0814 0350

5622

5530 (3.5%) 6612 (10%) Cement Perfumery & cosmetics

8939 (1.3%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic 5514

5541

2713 5832

0341 (7%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets

0360 (5.5%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or salted crustaceans & molluscs

0342 (3.8%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

1222 (2.5%) Cigarretes

2631 (1.9%) Raw cotton

0544

2783 (1.4%) Sodium chloride

0371

1212 (1.8%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0460 0488

9710 2782 (1%) Clay & refractory minerals, 7442N.E.S. (1%) Lifting

6731 (2.2%) Iron/steel wire & loading rod machinery

4234 (1.4%) 2882 0422 Peanut oil (0.94%) (0.92%) Other Semi or non-ferrous wholly milled base 0980metals (2.7%) Edible products 6732 (3.6%) Iron/steel rods rice N.E.S.

7162 (0.81%)

0343 (1.2%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets

6513

Total Exports: 2.19 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

1223 (2.1%) Tobbacco, extract, essences & manufactures

5629 (3.4%) Fertilizers

0545 (1%)

7924 (2.4%) Aircrafts of more than 15 tons

6421 (0.91%) Paper packing containers 0579

0350

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0484

0545 (0.72%) 8931

2820 (2.2%) Iron & steel waste

294 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Serbia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.644 / (37/11)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.38% / (17/7)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

-1 0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

2008

Opportunity Gain

Distance

15 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

1.5 k 1.2 k 900 600 300 0

2005

2006

2007

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 295

2005

EXPORT TREEMAP

6822 (3.9%)

6251 (3.2%)

6418 0586 (3.7%)

0980 6842 (2.8%)

8211 (1.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

9510

6747 (3.3%) 6746 (2.2%) 6744 (1.7%) 8939 (2.8%)

5417 (2.7%)

7224 6289 6785

7283 7442 8946 7493 0585 1123 0612 (4.3%)

2331

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6727 (6.3%) Iron/steel coils

0440 (2.7%)

8510 (2%)

4236

8472

0412

8423 8431

6210

8219

6822 (4.3%) 6251 6418 (1.7%) 8939 (2.3%) (2.2%)

7416

6911

6744 (2.7%)

8463 (1.5%)

6821 (2%)

6123 (1.2%) 8465 8422

6794 69986861

7758 6289

6746 (1.8%)

7442 7493 6745 6783 6259

6747 (2.3%) 6842 (3.3%)

0149 2112

Mining

Oil

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Coal

0980

0819 5335

0484 1110

0730 0579 8931

0585 1123 5121 8463 (1.8%) 6123 8472 8423 6998 2882 6821 (1.1%) 8439 5112 2331

7915

8510 (1.6%)

8219 8211 6353 7752

2820

0586 (3.1%)

3510 7731 6624 2483 6924 6973 (1.4%) (1.3%)

6794

6612

0612 (2.1%)

0440 (1.2%)

4236

2820 (1.7%)

0111

0460

0412

4232

8928

0223

Total Exports: 11.09 b / 15.56 T (0.07%) Total Exports: 11.09 B / 15.56 T (0.07%) 6822 (4.2%) Worked 7169 (2.1%) copper & copper Parts of rotating alloys electric plants N.E.S.

7283

6251 (1.9%) 6418 Tires & pneumatic for cars

7139

8939 (2.3%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

5542

7442 6746 (2%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets

6745 (1.1%) 6783 Iron/steel 3 4.75mm tick sheets

6842 (2.4%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys

7731 (1.5%) Electric wire

3510 (1.7%) Electric current

6624 (1.2%) Non-refractory ceramic bricks

8219 (1.1%)

0819

0586 (2.8%) Temporarily preserved fruit

5334 0980 (0.99%)

0579 (0.67%)

0484 (0.97%)

6421

5335 5111 (0.9%) 5137

5831 (2.2%) Polyethylene

5629

9510 7416

7915 (1%) Not mechanically propelled railway for freight 7611 (1.1%) Color T.V. 6911

6924

5112 6259

2483

2331 5621

7711

7924 (1%)

7752

8463 (1.7%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers

8510 (1.5%) Footwear

8472 (0.78%)

8429

1123

5121 2882

2820 (1.6%) Iron 8928 & steel waste 0440 (1.4%)

6973 6353 7861

0460

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6841

6794

6123 0612 (1.7%) Refined sugar

8211

8931

0585

0730 7758

1110 (1.2%)

8922

6289 7919

6747 (2.2%) Steel tinned sheets

5542 5334

5111 5137 5831 (2.5%) (1.3%)

6973

5417 (2.2%) Medicaments

6744 (2.6%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 8.85 B / 13.45 T (0.07%)

6727 (6%)

7169 (1.7%)

7731

5121

6259 (1.2%)

5831 (3.2%) 5111 5137 (1.3%)

5334 0819 8922 5542 5832

0546 0545 6624 0561 3510

Not classified

Total Exports: 8.85 b / 13.45 T (0.07%)

2483 0484 0730 0579

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2007

Total Exports: 4.36 b / 9.84 t (0.04%) Total Exports: 4.36 B / 9.84 T (0.04%)

6727 (7.7%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Leather

Petrochemicals

Milk & cheese

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,510 / (68/19) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 23 % (89/22)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 49 B / (72/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 6,647 / (59/15)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 7.4 M / (80/13) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 11 B / (76/17)

4236

4239

0011 (0.59%) 0111

6612 3354

296 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Singapore ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.639 / (7/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.30% / (68/10)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

1.5

0.5

-0.015

0.86

-0.01

-0.005

2008

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

70 k 56 k 42 k 28 k 14 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 297

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 733.95 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

4242 2483 (4.7%)

6924 (1.9%) 4243

6996 6341

0751 (1.4%)

0752 2923 2640 (1.6%) 2924

2481

EXPORT TREEMAP

9610

6584

0421 2922 4234 8999

6423

6581 8310

6785

6522 0350 (0.96%) 0014 2119 6521

7638 (2.9%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

7721 (1.6%)

3345 (2.3%)

7431 (1.2%) 7758

5982 8720 5417 8921 3352 5146 5156

7491 7239 2320 (2.3%) 7649 (3.8%)

2890 (1.1%) 2876 (1.1%)

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Meat & eggs

Fish & Seafood

Total Exports: 30.98 B / 2.79 T (1.11%)

7764 (11%)

6424

1123 6651 1222 (1.2%)

0422

Total Exports: 30.98 b / 2.79 T (1.11%)

0819 (3.3%) 8921

6732

2231

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

7599 (18%)

3345 (5%)

8851 6652 0589 0980 6421 7781 (1.5%) 0586 (1.2%) 6783

2008

Animal Fibers

1988

Total Exports: 733.95 m / 228.33 B (0.32%)

2320 (42%)

0460 (2.4%)

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 69,843 / (1/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 175 % (1/1)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 193 B / (44/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 39,950 / (19/2)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.8 M / (97/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 338 B / (14/5)

7611 (3%)

7622 (2.5%)

7628

5831 (2%)

4242 (1%) 0723

7768 7788 7525 (1.4%) 7641 7162 (1.5%) 8463 8459 8743 8942 (0.91%) 7169 7932 (2%) 8441 8462 7712 7761 7415 7511 (0.95%) (0.95%) 8983 7781 2483 6997 7763 7528 7512 7522 7414 (1.1%) 7938 6342 7722 7643

5832

2923 0752 4232 1222 8973 (1.3%)

2882 3354

4313 1110 8931 0342

2820

Total Exports: 338.31 b / 15.56 T (2.17%) Total Exports: 338.31 B / 15.56 T (2.17%)

7764 (31%) Electronic microcircuits

7239 (2.9%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S.

7721 (2.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

5146 (1.6%) Oxygen-function amino-compounds

5112 (1.2%) Cyclic hydrocarbons

5989 (1.2%) 5839 (1.3%) Other Chemical polymerization & products copolymarization products 8720 (0.82%) 6871 5514 5829

7491

7162 (0.68%)

8744

5156 (0.81%)

8748

5157 7599 (8%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7525 (3.9%) Control & peripheral hardware

7643 (2.9%) Television & radio transmitters 7768 (6.1%) Parts N.E.S. of electronic circuits 7649 (2.7%) Parts of telecom & sound recording equipment

7763 (2.5%) Diodes 7788 (2.2%) & transistors Other electrical 7499 machinery & equipment N.E.S. 6954

5982

8749 8741

5530 (0.86%) Perfumery & cosmetics 8973 3354

7431 7518 (1%) 7528 Office machines N.E.S. 7722 7712 (0.9%)

7929 (1.7%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

7781

7523 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5121 (0.72%)

7131 1124 5823 7853

7938

5831 (0.75%)

5833

0488 8851

298 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Slovak republic ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.379 / (15/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.08% / (29/11)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

-15

Distance

2008

-10

-5

Opportunity Gain

0 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

13 k 10.4 k 7.8 k 5.2 k 2.6 k 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 299

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

2001

Total Exports: 6.09 b / 4.30 t (0.14%) Total Exports: 6.09 B / 4.30 T (0.14%)

6746 (4.4%) 6727 (3.8%)

6745 7491 6251 6782 (2.8%) (1.2%) 7162

5417 (1.5%)

8939 3345 5112 5831 (2%)

6418 7919

7224 8921 6424 7361 5542

2008

7491 (1.8%)

8510 (1.8%)

8423 (0.84%) 8451

6123

8441

7239

6997 6428 2483 6353 2472 7861

8424

8429

6289

2482

8422

5834

7731 (3.6%)

8211 (1.9%) 8219

7162 (1.2%)

5629

7493 7431 6782 9510

6746 (3%)

6727 (2.2%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 12.64 B / 5.90 T (0.21%)

7849 (4.8%)

5162 5621 (1.2%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 12.64 b / 5.90 T (0.21%)

6744 (1.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (18%)

5832

7492 5239 6725 7449 8510 (1.9%) 8424 6123 6514 (3.4%) (1.3%) 6252 6623 7611 8124 8439 8451 (0.92%) (0.85%) 7751 8423 8431 8462 6584 8429 6716 (2%) 6822 6747 6783 6770 6931 7915 (1.1%) (1.1%) 8422 8435 6517 6519 8731 (0.94%) 8459 8219 2482 6911 6353 6633 6415 (2%) 6841 0545 0440 0482 2820 (1.9%) (1.7%) 6624 6421 6651 2483 6997 6342 7731 7752 8211 6612 (1.7%) 1222 6921 2517 (1.2%) 0011 6114 6417 6618 6749 (2.1%)

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 13,021 / (21/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 71 % (12/2)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 98 B / (57/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 18,212 / (34/3)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 5.4 M / (93/15) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 70 B / (43/7)

6749 (1.2%)

8121 6745 7751

6716 6747 7768 (0.81%) 6725 6744 7712

7373 7169

6649 6417

3510 6415 6424 (1.8%)

7611 6252

5831 (1.1%) 5832

6519

6841 (2.6%) 2782 6612 6998

6623

8921

7782 8124 7915

8922 5145 5162

5834 6210 0980 5621 0730

7731 (2.6%) Electric wire

6997

7722

5542

6514 6652 (1.4%)

8928 6114 2820 0482

Total Exports: 70.41 b / 15.56 T (0.45%) Total Exports: 70.41 B / 15.56 T (0.45%)

7810 (20%) Cars

7611 (16%) Color T.V.

6911

6924 6343

8219 (1.1%) 8211 Furniture parts N.E.S.

6415

7849 (3.9%) Other vehicles parts

7493 (1.3%) Mechanical tools for building

6991 (0.91%) 7431

8121 (1.2%)

7842 (3.1%) Vehicle bodies

7162

6782

6940 6251

7491 (1.5%)

7239

7638 (1.7%) Video 7712 (1.1%) 7525 (0.94%) & sound recorders N.E.S. 7751 (0.9%) 6749 (1.6%) Other worked iron/steel sheets

6746 (1.4%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets

6727

7119

7868

6747 (0.8%)

6745 (0.75%)

7782

7442

6289

6744 (0.78%)

6716 (0.67%)

7915

8939 (1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

8510 (1.5%) Footwear

5832

6252 (1.2%) Tires & pneumatic for buses

7783

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8124

6931

5831 (0.61%)

6514

6841 (0.87%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

2820

5121

300 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Slovenia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.523 / (10/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.72% / (49/19)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

-0.03

Distance

2008

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 301

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

7758 (2.2%) 6353 (3.6%) 8211 (3.3%)

6428 6842 (1.3%) 6359 6911 6732 3510

8219 (3.1%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

7861 6342 6973

6415 (0.95%) 6652 (0.79%) 8842

8510 (2.5%) 8439 (1.7%) 8451 8465 8435

8422

5417 (3.7%)

5530

6424

8921

5334

5156 5138

0142

6116 (0.89%)

5239 6421

7431 (1.2%) 6251 (1.1%) 7757 (1.6%) 7751

0548

6353 (2%)

7752 (1.9%)

6732 6412 (0.93%) (1.1%) 3510 6415 (0.91%) 6411 7861 6911 6997 6652 6649 6428 6341

8219 6842 (2.3%) 7162 7913 (2.5%) 7492 7139 7493 6631 2483 2482 7442 7161 5417 (5.5%) 8510 8422 6514 6954 7499 (1.2%) 6418 8439 6522 (0.94%) 7784 8743 6991 7129 8431 8939 5530 6424 (0.91%) 7281 6841 6998 6116 7641 7723 8731 6744 6783 (1.5%) 0223 6573 (1%) 6746 6716 5334 6635 6252 5821 8124 7781 1110 1123 6745 5331 5824 6210 5823 7711 7721 7239

Total Exports: 29.27 b / 15.56 T (0.19%) Total Exports: 29.27 B / 15.56 T (0.19%)

7810 (13%) Cars

7849 (3.1%) Other vehicles parts

8211 (2.6%) Chairs & seats

6842 (2.3%) 6732 (1.5%) Worked Iron/steel rods aluminium & aluminium alloys

6353 (1.4%) Builders` carpentry & joinery

7752 (1.2%) Refrigerators & freezers 6911 (0.93%)

8842 6652 6953

7758 (2.3%) Electro-thermal home appliances N.E.S.

7783 (1.8%) Auto parts

7169

6954 (0.91%)

6991 (0.85%)

7239 (1.7%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S. 6251 (1.2%) Tires & 7492 (1%) Valves pneumatic for cars

6289 7431 (1%)

7757 (1%)

7751

7432 (0.95%)

7781 (0.63%) 8942 (0.56%)

8947 8124

7372

7442 (0.65%) 6418 (0.62%)

2482 (0.9%) 8219 (1.7%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

3510 (1.7%) Electric current

6415 6411

7452 5417 (8.9%) Medicaments

7139

6841 (1.1%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys 2882

8743

7281

7441

6572

6994

6514 (0.85%) Yarn not for retail (>=85% synthetic fibres)

8928

6940 7919 6744 (1.7%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

6998

2873

7868 5530 (1.2%)

8939 (1.1%)

5334 (0.75%)

8921

6424 2820

5542 6745 6783

6252

8731 7711

5335 5331

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Fruit

8211 (5.2%)

7758 (2%)

7783 6998 (1%)

0114 0980

Total Exports: 9.24 B / 5.90 T (0.16%)

7849 (2.7%)

7169 (1.4%)

6841 (1.5%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 9.24 b / 5.90 T (0.16%)

6516 6536

6123 8432 8421 8429

8459 8424

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (9%)

8431 (1.5%) 6514 8463

8423

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 6.45 b / 4.30 t (0.15%)

7721 7783 7169 6418 7757 8124 7611 (1.2%) (1.2%) 8947 8710 7751 6991 6251 7781 8813 7431 7449 7281 6746 6745 6783 6832 6863 5224 6744 6716 7162 7492 8731 6252 (1.1%) 7784 8743 6259 7752 (2.1%) 6997 2482 2483 6412 (1.4%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 14,496 / (16/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 54 % (25/7)

Total Exports: 6.45 B / 4.30 T (0.15%)

7810 (8.1%)

2008

GDP ≥ USD 54 B / (70/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 26,911 / (27/1)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 2 M / (122/26) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 29 B / (61/12)

5416

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5821 5831

6210

6635 0223 (0.62%)

302 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

South africa ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.131 / (55/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.90% / (41/7)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.015

0.02

Distance

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.5 k 1.2 k 900 600 300 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 303

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

0440 (10%)

0571 (2.8%)

0611 (3.1%)

0574 (1.9%)

0459 (1.1%)

0575 0572 2221 (0.97%) 6512 0589 (3.3%)

2890 (4.3%) 2681 (7%)

0814 (2.7%)

6851 2731 2879

2008

2120 (3.2%)

4111 2116

2111 2117 2516 (1.4%)

0612 0615 0579

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

6716 (8.4%)

0574 0571 (1.3%) (1.3%) 0575

6841 (1.4%)

2881 2731 2874 2785 (1.2%) 3221 2786 6672 (6.9%) 6821 (3.7%) 6831 2872 5241 (1.7%) (1.5%) (1.4%)

6712 (2.1%)

2815 (2.4%)

5322

2877 (1.4%) 6899

2784 2890

0611 (1.9%) 6725 6727 6746 6749 (1.4%) 6712 6733 6783 0813 1212 6731 7283 2681 (1.8%) 03600342 5222 5221 6512 (1.4%)

2516 (1.3%) 5225 2517

2683 6114

2713

2687 2117 6413 6732

0589

5162

3351

0579 (1.4%) 2518

Total Exports: 74.09 b / 15.56 T (0.48%) Total Exports: 74.09 B / 15.56 T (0.48%)

6812 (16%) Unwrought metals of platinum

6841 (2.3%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

2882 (0.96%)

3222 (7.8%) Other coal

7810 (7.6%) Cars

6716 (9.5%) Ferro-alloys

7436 (5.2%) Liquid & gas filters & purifiers

7821 (2.7%) Trucks & vans

6727 (1.1%)

6744

6746 (0.86%)

6749

7132 (0.71%)

6672 (3.8%) Not mounted diamonds

7283

2816 (3.9%) Agglomerated iron ore

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Total Exports: 14.77 B / 2.79 T (0.53%)

2879 (3.2%) 0360 (1.3%)

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Tropical agric.

Cereals & veg. oils

Total Exports: 14.77 b / 2.79 T (0.53%)

3222 (11%)

2877 (2.2%)

2871 2782

EXPORT TREEMAP

6716 (2.3%)

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

0812

0585

2683

EXPORT TREEMAP

6812 (14%)

2682

2872

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 2.07 B / 228.33 B (0.91%)

2784 (3.8%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,519 / (67/7) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (76/14)

Total Exports: 2.07 b / 228.33 B (0.91%)

6672 (19%)

6821 (9.6%)

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 277 B / (31/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 5,666 / (62/4)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 49 M / (23/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 74 B / (41/2)

2877 (3.2%) Manganese

6842 (1.2%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 8211

2879 (2.7%) Other non-ferrous base metals

2890 (1.3%) Ores and precious metals

5241

2516

6911 (0.97%)

7861

7923

5222 (1.4%) 5629 Non-metals 5221 inorganic acids & oxygen compounds 5111 5832

6415

0575

1121 (1.3%) Wine

0574

0572

0579

0440 (0.89%) Unmilled maize

0585 0589

0360 2681

3351 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0571 (0.84%)

2820

304 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Spain ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.933 / (28/13)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.08% / (83/7)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3 Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-1 0.5

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

-0.03

0.64

-0.025

2008

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

-0.005

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

6.1 k 4.8 k 3.6 k 2.4 k 1.2 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 305

0460 (1.9%)

0541 7244 (4.8%)

0577 (4.3%) 0575 (2.8%)

0572 0565 (5.6%)

0545 (3%)

4235 (2.5%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

8310 6584 0752 0751 8997 0422 0573 6513 (1.4%) 6521 6724 6716 (0.97%) 2927 6517 5224 6931 0421 5513 8921 (2.1%) 5623 3510 5981 (1.7%) (1.1%) 0589 0579 7731 8960 (1.8%) (1.5%) 5221 (1.9%) 6973 5137 2742 (1.3%) 0350 0360 6118 2919 6330 0585 (2.2%) 2785 (0.97%) 0546 6613

0545 (2.7%)

7849 (5.4%)

6251

7783 7361 4235 (1.6%) 0589

7132

6954 7492 7431 7372 6940 6991

7821 (2.5%) 6733 (1.1%)

6746 (0.87%)

6418 6731 7442 7162 8942 7528 6252 8124 7757

6725 6744

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

6624 (1.5%)

Total Exports: 40.31 B / 2.79 T (1.44%)

6259

7932 (1.3%) 7929

7781

6747

0565 (1.4%) 5156 5111 5148 5137 5138 5831

6732 (1.4%)

0571 (3.4%)

8219 (0.93%) 7731

0579 (2.1%) 6352 2814 6725 8124 7511 8481

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Textile & Fabrics

1121

Total Exports: 40.31 b / 2.79 T (1.44%)

7810 (13%)

8946 8510 (5.2%) 7851 7919

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Food Processing

0544 (5.8%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

1988

Total Exports: 1.81 B / 228.33 B (0.79%)

2440

2008

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 6,124 / (35/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (107/15)

Total Exports: 1.81 b / 228.33 B (0.79%)

0571 (13%)

1121 (6.1%)

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

EXPORT TREEMAP

GDP ≥ USD 1.6 T / (10/5) GDPpc ≥ USD 35,000 / (22/14)

Garments

1968

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 46 M / (26/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 279 B / (17/7)

2517 (1.1%)

0980 0620

0544 (1.4%) 8960

5416 8921 8510 (3.8%) 3345 (0.94%) 5413

0440

0577

0430

2927

0360

6130

6613 (0.81%)

5832

3352

6612 6861

5623

3354

Total Exports: 279.29 b / 15.56 T (1.8%) Total Exports: 279.29 B / 15.56 T (1.8%)

7810 (15%) Cars

7849 (6.1%) Other vehicles parts

5417 (4.6%) Medicaments

5530 (1.2%) Perfumery & cosmetics 8921

8939 (0.65%) 5335 6424

6624 (1.6%) Non-refractory ceramic bricks

6732 (1.6%) Iron/steel rods

7731

6842 (0.92%)

6997

6924

6911

5542

6996 8219 (0.76%)

5334 5839

5832

3352

3510

5912 2517 7821 (3.6%) Trucks & vans

6782 (0.64%)

7851 7449

7783 6731 7132 (1%)

7492 (0.77%)

7169 (0.82%)

7442 (0.67%)

7611 (1.4%) Color T.V.

6746

6289

0545 (1.8%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

4235 (1.4%) Olive oil

7361 7162

6733 (1%) 6822 Iron/steel shapes 7415

7758

7822

0565 (0.75%)

0113 (1.2%) Swine meat

0571 (1.5%) Fresh or dried oranges & m&arines

0342

0544

0980 (0.66%)

1121 (1.4%) Wine 8931 0579 (1.4%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

6252 7711

7929 (1%) 8510 (1.3%) Aircraft Footwear equipment parts N.E.S. 8439

6415

0341 8451 (0.52%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5823 (0.7%) 6613

3354 6861

306 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Sri lanka ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.265 / (71/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.97% / (37/3)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.02

0.9

0.025

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

410 328 246 164 82 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 307

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 358.17 M / 228.33 B (0.16%)

0577 2320 (16%) (7.9%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). South Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 358.17 m / 228.33 B (0.16%)

0741 (61%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 406 / (100/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (100/2)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 41 B / (77/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,020 / (91/1)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 20 M / (49/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 8.2 B / (81/4)

Total Exports: 1.52 b / 2.79 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 1.52 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

8439 (6.2%)

8462 (3.4%)

8435 (4.9%)

8441 (3.3%)

0741 (18%)

2320 (8.4%)

2659 8423 (3.1%) 4243 (5.7%)

8451 (2%)

8421 (1.9%)

2659 (3.2%)

0577 8431 (2.5%)

2231 (1.2%)

0721

8463 (2.3%)

8434 (2%)

4242

8433

6584 8481

8472

8997

8443 8459

0752

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

8462 (7.7%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

0752 (2.1%)

8429 (1.9%) 6673 (5.8%)

6672 (3.8%)

0812 0751 (0.83%) 0711

7924 (2%)

0360 (1.5%)

8452 8471

6940 6259 6624

8465 6581

6289 8482

6664

8999 5989

Total Exports: 8.19 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 8.19 B / 15.56 T (0.05%) 8439 (6.9%) Other women outerwear

8459 (5.7%) Other knitted outerwear

0741 (17%) Tea

0752 (1.7%) Spices other than pepper 0460

0812

2320 (1.7%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

1212

1223 8423 (4.1%) Men's trousers

8463 (2%) Knitted undergarments of synthetic fibers

8451 (2%) 8441 (1.7%) Knitted jerseys, Men's pullovers & undershirt cardigans

6259 (4.2%) Other tires articles

8465 (3.7%) Corsets 8435 (1.3%) Blouses 8464 (2.2%) null

8472 (2.2%) 8433 (1.1%) Knitted clothing accessories of textile fabrics 8434 (0.92%)

8452 (0.8%)

8443 7711

8431

8997

6672 (4.2%) Not mounted diamonds

8482 (1.7%) Clothing accessories from rubber

7722

7731 (0.74%)

6416

7641

6289 (0.97%) 7441 Other articles of rubber 6673 (2.5%) Not mounted precious stones

6664

6582 0342 0341 (0.98%) Frozen fish, 0343 excluding 0980 fillets 8931 8928

8424 0589

6552

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2771 (1.1%)

7852

0360

2511

308 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Sudan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.768 / (126/24)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 0.55% / (126/24)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5 2

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

-2.5

0.985

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

240 192 144 96 48 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 309

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 259.62 M / 228.33 B (0.11%)

2922 (10%)

0813 0012 (6.9%) (4.7%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2631 (47%)

Total Exports: 561.19 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2922 (12%)

0813 (6.4%)

0012 (4.5%)

4234 (3.5%)

2117 (1.2%)

0459 (5.8%)

2116

0011 2119

0459 2223 2235 0548 2924

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2114 2221 (4.5%)

2225 (2.2%)

0615 (2.2%)

2632

0548 (1%)

2117 2890

2111

2238 2222 4239

2116

4233 (1.4%)

Mining

Total Exports: 561.19 m / 2.79 T (0.02%)

2221 (7.4%)

2634 (4.7%)

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 259.62 m / 228.33 B (0.11%)

2631 (58%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 239 / (111/14) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 17 % (109/20)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 58 B / (67/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,404 / (98/8)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 41 M / (29/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 9.9 B / (77/5)

2911 0561 7144

0579 2924 6513

Total Exports: 9.87 b / 15.56 T (0.06%) Total Exports: 9.87 B / 15.56 T (0.06%)

3330 (91%) Crude petroleum

2225

2922

2631

0459

0012

2820 9410 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

310 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Sweden ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.859 / (4/3)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.04% / (87/8)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

2008

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

1.5

0.5

-0.5

1.5

0.5

-0.5

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

-0.04

Distance

2008

-0.035

-0.03

-0.025

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

20 k 16 k 12 k 8k 4k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 311

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

2518 (4.2%)

6415 (2.4%)

2516 (1.5%)

6412 (1.9%)

2512

6413 (5.6%)

2482 (10%)

6411 (2.4%)

6732 (1.8%)

5981 2460 6953 (1.3%)

6416 6842 6353 (1.3%)

7810 (6.7%)

7491 (1.9%)

7452 6940 7213 7126 6577 7283 7371 7841 8121 6822 6746 7512 7788 7518 (1.7%) (1.3%) (2.1%)

7932 (5.8%)

6783 2671

6998

0113

6418 (2.3%)

8928

7641

7416 (1.3%) Heating & cooling equipment N.E.S. 7441 (1.2%) Work trucks

7849 (4.2%) Other vehicles parts

7721 (1.6%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7132 (1.4%) Internal combustion engines for motor 7649 (3.8%) Parts of telecom vehicles 7641 (2.1%) 7832 (1.8%) Tractors for semi-trailers

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

6954 7832 7721 7452 7442 2517 (4%) (1.3%) (1.2%)

7821 (2.8%)

7284 (1.3%)

7234 (1.1%)

7132 (1.1%)

7451

7449 6731

6782 7491 7841

7441 7373 6940 7492 7758 7416

6413 (3.5%)

6411 (3%)

6415 (2.2%)

6412 (2.2%)

2518 2512

8743 7251

2482 (4%)

6732

7731 6911

6353

3510 7414

6842 7259

8219

7822

7133 7525 7528 6744 (0.81%) (1.1%) 7643 6746 (1%) 7712

7284 (1.2%) 7821 Specialized (1.1%) industry machinery & parts N.E.S 7442 (1.1%) 7452 Lifting & loading machinery

6782 (0.72%)

6954

7492 (0.66%)

7841

7187

7239

7491

6822 6749 6770 (0.8%) 7932 6725 6783 6745 6713 7149

7234

2482 (2.9%) Worked wood of coniferous

7731 (1.1%)

7752

6428

5417 (1.7%)

8720

8939

5831 (1%)

7259

7188

7493

7758

7283

Telephone lines

7523

6353

8219 (1.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S.

6428

6732

2815 2816 0484 0730 2120

6842

5417 (6.2%) Medicaments

6413 (1.9%) 2517 (1.8%) Rolls/sheets of Chemical kraft paper wood pulp, soda or sulphate

6911 7414

3510 (0.84%)

7133

7712

7842

6744 (1.1%) 6746 7149 8720 (0.89%) Iron/steel (0.89%) (0.61%) >=4.75mm tick sheets 7415 8996 5415 6822 (0.88%) 6770 Worked copper 8124 & copper * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headersalloys show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country). & sound recording equipment

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

7849 (4.1%)

Total Exports: 48.89 b / 2.79 T (1.75%) Total Exports: 48.89 B / 2.79 T (1.75%)

7810 (7.7%)

7649 (2.1%)

2120

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Total Exports: 184.43 b / 15.56 T (1.19%) Total Exports: 184.43 B / 15.56 T (1.19%)

7810 (6.9%) Cars

6418 (2.2%) Rolls/sheets of coated paper

7781 8947 7511

6716 6770

6973

EXPORT TREEMAP

7411 7499 (1.5%) (1.8%) 7281 (1.4%)

6731 7821 (2.3%) 6782 (2%) (1%)

6419 (1.9%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

1988

Total Exports: 5.34 b / 228.33 B (2.34%) Total Exports: 5.34 B / 228.33 B (2.34%)

2517 (7.9%)

2008

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 19,957 / (13/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 38 % (52/8)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 488 B / (22/9) GDPpc ≥ USD 52,884 / (9/6)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 9.2 M / (75/10) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 184 B / (23/9)

6415 (1.1%) Paper & paperboad in rolls or sheets

6412 (0.63%)

6411 (1%)

5851

8939 (1%) 0980 Miscellaneous articles of plastic 8931 5334 2816 (1.5%) 2882 Agglomerated iron ore

8744

8745

5831 (1.3%) Polyethylene 5834

6210

0341 (0.93%) 2820 Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets

312 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Switzerland ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.935 / (3/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.78% / (100/11)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

-0.5

-0.5 0.7

0.71

0.72

0.73

0.74

0.75

-0.035

0.76

-0.03

2008

-0.025

-0.02

-0.015

-0.01

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

26 k 20.8 k 15.6 k 10.4 k 5.2 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 313

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

7244 (9.5%)

Total Exports: 3.96 B / 228.33 B (1.73%)

7499 (1.9%)

7452 (1.4%)

7126 (1.4%)

7281 (1.3%)

8852 (1.9%)

7788 8851 (17%) (1.5%)

8960 6842

7512 7188 (0.94%) 8812 8731 (2.8%)

6577 7491

3510 6953

7784 7271 5411 5148 (1.5%)

6522 6513 (1.7%)

2008

5416 8720 5162 5137 5415 8996

0240 (2.7%)

8921 (1.6%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6560 8510 (1.4%) (1.1%) 8471

5414 5542 (1.4%)

5513 (1.3%)

0980

2665

0730

8928 8993

5121

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Total Exports: 58.99 b / 2.79 T (2.11%) Total Exports: 58.99 B / 2.79 T (2.11%)

7721 (2.6%)

7361 7246 7416 6954 7267 7373 7788 6672 (11%) (2.6%) (0.84%) (0.99%) 7252 8743 7492 7493 8852 6940 7284 (2.6%) (0.79%) 7369 (0.77%) 7499 7272 7431 7271 7264 7281 7269 7268 7245 (1.6%) 7452 7247 6783 (1.3%) 7161 8851 (6%) 7244 (1.5%) 7784 6577 6418 8749 5311 5156 5989 5514 5146 5417 (5.4%) 8939 (2.6%) (2%) 5414 5530 8742 5416 5413 5139 8996 5839 5824 6514 6522 5826 8745 5148 8748 5147 5542 8720

5411

5912

5913 5911

8973 (1.4%) 9710 6812 8960 (2.5%)

6842 (1.2%) 3510

8931 8928 0240 (0.87%)

6513

1222

Total Exports: 200.66 b / 15.56 T (1.29%) Total Exports: 200.66 B / 15.56 T (1.29%)

5416 (8.1%) Glycosides & vaccines

5148 (2.1%) Other nitrogen-function compounds

5156 (2%) Heterocyclic compound; nucleic acids

5514 (0.96%)

5415

8744

8720 (1.3%) Medical instruments N.E.S. 5147 (1.2%) Amide-function compounds, excluding urea 8748

5311 8996 (3.2%) Orthopaedic appliances

5989

8742 (0.53%) 5411

5417 (15%) Medicaments

6673

6521

5989 8745 (2.8%)

6996 6341

5417 (7.3%)

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 3.96 b / 228.33 B (1.73%)

7243

5155 (5.4%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 26,283 / (10/5) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 40 % (47/6)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 502 B / (21/8) GDPpc ≥ USD 65,699 / (3/2)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 7.6 M / (78/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 201 B / (19/8)

5332

5146 5824

7721 (2.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7416 (0.96%) Heating & cooling equipment 7361 (0.9%) N.E.S. Metal cutting machine-tools

7284 (2.3%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

7452

7492

6940 (0.65%)

7162

8743

6954

7431 7369 7432

7149 (1.3%) Parts of gas & reaction engines

7244 7367

7493

7373

7499

7923 (0.7%) 7712

9510 7161 7281

8749

8851 (8.8%) Watches

8960

5233

8973 (3.2%) Precious jewellery

6812 (2.3%) Unwrought metals of platinum

5413 (0.93%) 6953

8939 (0.86%) 5530

5419 5821

6672 (1.1%) Not mounted diamonds 1110

3510 (2.9%) Electric current

5334

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0980

0711

6842 (0.75%) 1222 6997

8928

314 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

Syrian Arab Republic ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.290 / (75/8)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.78% / (44/5)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.02

Distance

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

700 560 420 280 140 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 315

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 179.42 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

3330 (32%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 688.71 m / 2.79 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 688.71 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

3330 (64%)

0012 (12%)

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 179.42 m / 228.33 B (0.08%)

2631 (22%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 705 / (88/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (78/13)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 55 B / (69/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 2,649 / (89/14)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Electronics

Machinery

POPULATION ≥ 21 M / (48/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 15 B / (72/13)

0012 (4.2%)

2919 (3.1%)

2117 (1.9%) 0014

8483

2631 (6.8%)

0752

0011 (8.1%)

0542 4233

0577 2221

0542 (4%)

0752

0812

2008

2223

0430 (3%)

0571

2713 (5.8%) 2681 2682 0230 2117 (1.1%) (0.99%) 2919 0579 0545 7821 (2.1%) 6513 (0.92%) 6521

0813 (2.1%)

0545 (1.7%) 0583

5530

8960 8741

Total Exports: 14.49 b / 15.56 T (0.09%) Total Exports: 14.49 B / 15.56 T (0.09%)

3330 (37%) Crude petroleum

1110 (9.2%) Non-alcoholic beverages N.E.S.

4235 (1.2%)

0484

6732 (3%) Iron/steel rods

0980 (0.54%) 0565

5542 (2.3%) Organic surface-active agents N.E.S. 6531 (3.6%) Continuous synthetic woven fabrics

8510 (1.3%) Footwear

8433 6560

8459 (0.87%)

2713 (3.1%) Natural calcium phosphates & aluminium

0545

8939

0544 (0.99%) 0460 Fresh or chilled tomatoes

6571

0542 (0.58%)

0012 (1.9%) Live sheep & goat

0752 2631

0572

0412

0251

0114

0582

8463

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7731 (2.8%) Electric wire

7752 (1.6%) 6997 Refrigerators & freezers (0.83%) Articles of iron or steel 6973 6842 (1.4%) Worked N.E.S. aluminium & aluminium alloys

0620

6513 (4.8%) Cotton yarn

6513 (1.1%)

8421

0574 2925

EXPORT TREEMAP

8484

0224 (1.9%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream 5825

316 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tajikistan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.054 / (108/25)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.95% / (92/24)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-2 0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

2008

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

160 128 96 64 32 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 317

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 250.69 M / 4.30 T (0.01%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Total Exports: 356.81 b / 5.90 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 356.81 M / 5.90 T (0.01%)

6841 (48%)

6841 (37%)

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

2001

Total Exports: 250.69 b / 4.30 t (0.01%)

2631 (53%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 152 / (117/27) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 20 % (99/24)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 5.1 B / (123/27) GDPpc ≥ USD 751 / (116/27)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 6.8 M / (84/14) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1 B / (127/27)

2631 (24%)

0575

0574 1211 0542 6521 (4.8%)

0579 (4.5%)

0585 (1.5%) 0565 0545

6513 (2.4%) 6522 (1.9%) 2882 5241 (4.8%) 2111

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6911 (1.5%) 6994

Total Exports: 1.04 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

6841 (58%) Unwrought aluminium & aluminium alloys

8423

6716

6842 (1%)

7761 (1.3%)

3510

2820

Total Exports: 1.04 B / 15.56 T (0.01%) 2631 (13%) Raw cotton

0577 (1.3%)

0430 (3.6%) Unmilled barley

2221

0579 (6.7%) Fresh or dried fruit N.E.S.

0411 (1.9%) Unmilled durum wheat

0412 (1.3%)

0542

0575 (1%) Grapes & raisins

0460

0422 8423 (1.3%) Men's trousers

6513 (0.74%) 6522

0545 (2.5%) Other fresh or chilled vegetables

6978 (1%) Base metal household appliances N.E.S. 0344 2111

6716

5621 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

318 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tanzania ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.637 / (95/10)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.93% / (39/6)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.03

Distance

2008

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

0.055

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

94 75.2 56.4 37.6 18.8 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 319

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 209.75 M / 228.33 B (0.09%)

0711 (15%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 377.53 m / 2.79 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 377.53 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0711 (32%)

6672 (13%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 209.75 m / 228.33 B (0.09%)

2631 (17%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 74 / (125/23) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 15 % (115/23)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 21 B / (95/10) GDPpc ≥ USD 502 / (119/18)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 42 M / (28/4) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 3.1 B / (106/14)

2631 (16%)

6821 (6.9%)

6672 (2.2%)

6899

6575 (2.8%)

6513 (0.99%)

2654 (14%)

0577 (7.3%)

6821 (5.6%)

0741 (4.8%)

0752 (3.9%) 0548 0542 (1.2%) (1.2%) 0577 (7.8%)

2924 2929

0741 (3.3%) 0813 (2.6%) 2235

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2634

0812 2231

0149 (2.6%)

2111

2114

4314

Total Exports: 3.13 b / 15.56 T (0.02%)

9710 (27%) Gold, non-monetary

6575 (1.5%)

2654 2225 2223 0542 (4.2%)

0752 (3.1%)

2924 0548 1212 (2.5%)

5322

0611 (1.6%)

2483

8462 2111

6521 (0.82%) 2472 (1.2%) 2483 5322

2112 0721 0360 (0.8%) (0.92%) 0712 4314

Total Exports: 3.13 B / 15.56 T (0.02%) 2631 (2.9%) Raw cotton

0577 (2.6%) Edible nuts

0741 (1.5%) Tea

2634 (1.3%)

1212 (6.2%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

2225 (1.1%)

0711 (3.8%) Green & roasted 0542 (2.3%) coffee & coffee substitutes Dried or shelled legumes

0460 (1.3%) Wheat or meslin meal or flour 0752

0343 (2.2%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets

2890 (13%) Ores and precious metals

0344 (2%) Frozen fish fillets

4242 (1%) Palm oil

2926

0721 (0.92%) Raw & roasted 2927coffee2925 beans

6732 (1.7%) 8212 (0.93%) Iron/steel Medical & rods dental furniture

7758 (1.3%) 7711 (2%) Electrical Electro-thermal home transformers appliances N.E.S. 2882

6671

6673

7268 (1%) Bookbinding machines

7929

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5629

8932 6589 (2%) Other textile articles N.E.S.

6575

0412

5621 (1.3%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

2483 0360

0813 (0.71%)

6513

4312 8931 6951

320 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

thailand ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.814 / (31/6)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 4.05% / (3/2)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

-5

Distance

2008

Opportunity Gain

15 x 10

-3

Evolution of export composition

2.6 k 2k 1.5 k 1k 520 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 321

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 739.58 M / 228.33 B (0.32%)

2320 (12%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0548 (6.4%)

0422 (8.3%)

7764 (5.7%)

2008

0421 (1.3%) 2235

2929 0470 (1%)

2922

EXPORT TREEMAP

0564 (1.8%) 2483 (1.1%) 2472

7491 (1.1%)

0440

2785 (0.99%) 2879 6581

8510 (2.3%)

0342 0341

8439 8451 (1.7%) 8462

8459 8423 8310

8429

6534

8441

6513

8433 8463 8434

6584 6521

7161

6783

6114 6129 7731 8211 0589 8931 0579 (1.7%) 0980 0585 8219 6624 0565 2483 8999 6871 8851 5921 0819

8973 (3%)

6673 (2.8%)

8435 6354

0114 (1.4%)

Total Exports: 175.95 b / 15.56 T (1.13%) Total Exports: 175.95 B / 15.56 T (1.13%)

7525 (9.6%) Control & peripheral hardware

7415 (2.5%) Air conditioning machines

7599 (2.4%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7788 (1.7%)

2320 (5.1%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

0422 (4.5%) Semi or wholly milled rice

5831 (1.2%) Polyethylene 6210

5138

5112

5834 5832

8841 (1.1%)

7621 (0.65%) 7768 (0.62%)

7611 (1%) 7764 (5%) Electronic microcircuits 7638

7722

8482 7751

7821 (4.2%) Trucks & vans

7721 (1.4%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 6251

7849 (3.1%) Other vehicles parts

7758

7431

7139

6940 7851

0611 0371 (1.9%) Fish 0360 N.E.S. (1.4%)

7528 6252 (0.61%)

7162 7416

8939

7712 (0.59%) 7518 (0.56%)

7929 (1%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

Mining

Oil

Coal

7525

0612

6673 (1.5%)

0011 5922

2640 (4%)

0371 (3.8%) 0372 (1.8%)

8942 8482

0360 (2.5%)

0542

Precious Stones

0360 (5.1%)

0542 0711

0440 (11%)

0548 (4.5%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 16.50 B / 2.79 T (0.59%)

0611 (3.1%)

7599 (3.9%) 0819 (3.1%)

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Total Exports: 16.50 b / 2.79 T (0.59%)

2320 (8%)

6871 (8.9%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 739.58 m / 228.33 B (0.32%)

0422 (34%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 2,612 / (53/8) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 65 % (17/6)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 272 B / (32/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 4,043 / (77/8)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 67 M / (19/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 176 B / (25/8)

0612

8973 (2.2%) Precious jewellery

7938 * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5542

0548

0149 7752 (1.4%) Other prepared or preserved 6912 meat & entrails 6114

0372 (1.1%) 0342 Prepared 5922 crustaceans & molluscs 9710 (2.6%) Gold, non-monetary

5530

0819 7731

5823 (1.2%) Polyesters

7853 6415

8510 (0.72%) 8459

8928 (1.1%)

8462

5833 0980 (0.94%) Edible products N.E.S. 8931

2665 0589

322 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

trinidad and tobago ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.306 / (76/11)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.71% / (103/20)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.93

0.935

0.94

0.945

0.95

0.955

0.96

0.965

0.01

Distance

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

14 k 11.2 k 8.4 k 5.6 k 2.8 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 323

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 457.15 M / 228.33 B (0.2%)

3354 0611 (14%) (4.7%)

0612 (3.9%)

5225 (15%)

3330 (51%)

5989 (2%)

0360 (3.1%)

8996 3352 (1.7%)

1124 (1.7%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Fish & Seafood

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Total Exports: 1.06 b / 2.79 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 1.06 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

5225 (16%)

0615 (1.5%)

0721 3345 (5.2%)

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 457.15 m / 228.33 B (0.2%)

3330 (32%)

5121 (7.4%)

1124 (3.3%)

6731 (4.5%)

6713 (2.1%)

5621 (5.2%)

0611 (3%)

2877 (2.1%)

2789 (1.8%)

5621 (4.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

0585

2873 (2.2%) 8471

2008

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 14,024 / (17/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 72 % (11/1)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 26 B / (87/14) GDPpc ≥ USD 19,443 / (31/1)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 1.3 M / (126/21) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 19 B / (69/8)

0813 (1%) 0612 0615 6732

2789

6651

Total Exports: 18.73 b / 15.56 T (0.12%) Total Exports: 18.73 B / 15.56 T (0.12%)

3413 (45%) liquified hydrocarbons

5225 (14%) Inorganic bases 5121 (9.1%) Acyclic alcohols & derivatives & metallic oxides, hydroxides & peroxides

2814 (3.5%) Roasted iron pyrites

6713 (2.4%) Iron & steel powders

6725 3330 (16%) Crude petroleum

6731 (1.9%) Iron/steel wire 7234 rod (0.95%)

5621 (2.8%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

1222

324 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

tunisia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.294 / (47/4)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.36% / (19/3)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.015

0.02

Distance

2008

0.025

0.03

0.035

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.9 k 1.5 k 1.1 k 760 380 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 325

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 193.58 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

5622 (11%)

4235 (14%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Total Exports: 2.47 b / 2.79 T (0.09%) Total Exports: 2.47 B / 2.79 T (0.09%)

8423 (10%)

1121 (4.8%)

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 193.58 m / 228.33 B (0.08%)

2713 (17%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,869 / (61/9) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 47 % (33/7)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 41 B / (76/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,955 / (78/11)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 10 M / (69/8) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 19 B / (68/12)

8441 (2.6%)

8429 8459 (2.2%) (2.3%)

6522 3330 (11%)

6612 (2.4%)

8434 (2.2%) 0565 (1.3%) 0545 (1.3%)

3330 (24%)

0571 (3.7%) 2783 (1%) 2875 6612

2008

8439 (4.5%)

6851 2519 (2.3%) 0812 (2%) 2929 0752 6732 (1.8%) 2440 0542 6624 2450

EXPORT TREEMAP

0012 (1%)

0577 (1.8%)

5513

2919 2116

2882 2783

8452 6123 8424 8465 8435 (1.3%) (1.3%) (1.1%) (1.1%) 6592

0579 (0.86%)

5622 (6.8%)

4235 (5.2%)

8433 8431 8462 8472 (1.3%) 8451 5222 (6.4%) 5629 (5%)

6592 (0.99%)

0579 (1.9%)

6521

0565 0360 (4.2%)

7731 (1.3%) 7721 (1.8%)

2713 (2%)

1121 8842 2519 0571

5232 5231

6712

0012

0488

7712 7723

Total Exports: 19.34 b / 15.56 T (0.12%) Total Exports: 19.34 B / 15.56 T (0.12%)

8423 (4.9%) Men's trousers

8510 (2.5%) Footwear

8462 (2.2%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

3330 (16%) Crude petroleum

7721 (5.5%) Switchboards, relays & fuses

7783 6994

8451 (1.5%) 8429 (4.7%) Other men outerwear

6123 (1.2%)

8463

6589

7611 (1%) Color T.V.

8431

8459 (1.1%)

8439 (3.7%) Other women outerwear

8441 (0.74%)

8465

7641 (1%) Telephone lines

7788 (1%) Other electrical machinery & equipment 7722 N.E.S.

6749

7528 6612 5629 (5.3%) Fertilizers

5622 (3.9%) Phosphatic fertilizers

8939

7731 (6.2%) Electric wire

7712

2882

6911 (0.62%) 4235 (3.9%) Olive oil

0341

6428 6997 5222 (4.4%) Non-metals inorganic acids & oxygen compounds

5232 (1.9%) Inorganic acids metallic salts & peroxysalts

2713 (0.9%) Natural calcium phosphates 5231 & aluminium

8720

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7861

0579 (1.2%) Fresh 0483 or dried fruit N.E.S. 0914

4249 (0.59%)

326 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

turkey ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.444 / (43/16)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.83% / (43/16)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

-1 0.65

0.7

0.005

0.75

0.01

2008

0.015

0.02

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.8 k 1.4 k 1k 720 360 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 327

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 576.56 M / 228.33 B (0.25%)

0813 (6.3%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

8462 (3%)

8459 (1.8%)

2634 (3.8%)

2929 0548 0571

2632 0741

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2919 2117 (0.86%) 0012

Mining

Oil

Coal

6725 (2.7%)

2789 (2.2%) 2782

6581 6531 6596 6522 6534 6589 6521

0589

1211 (2.5%) 0575 (1.5%)

0579

0576

6783

6733

6731 (1.3%) 5629 (1.2%) 5622

6421

5831 5834 5832 5621 5111 5138

5232

4235 6842

0012 (2.4%)

6973

0412 (1.1%)

2631

6822 6716

0914

6732 (3%)

6749 (1.2%)

6727

0546 0545

0565

0572 0571

0752

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

8463 8434 6592 6516

7821 (4.8%) Trucks & vans

6725 (1.9%) Iron/steel billets

6733 (1.3%) Iron/steel shapes

6783 (1.7%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes

6727

6732 (8.4%) Iron/steel rods

8483 0112

7611 (1.9%) Color T.V. 7849 (2.7%) Other vehicles parts 6731

8121

7414 6973

7751 6624

7753

7139 (1.3%) Piston engines parts N.E.S.

7711

9710 (3.4%) Gold, non-monetary

6428

2731

0544

0575

8462 (2.6%) Knitted 8459 (1.7%) undergarments of cotton Other knitted outerwear

8451 (1.2%)

8423 (1.1%)

8472 (0.69%)

8435

8441

8452 8481

6584 (1.4%) Linens & furnishing textile articles

6552 (1%)

8463

6522

6531

8973 (1.6%) Precious jewellery

0579 6514

6842 (1%) Worked aluminium & aluminium alloys 7752 (1%) Refrigerators & freezers

8219

7758

7932 (2.3%) Ships & boats

7731 (1.9%) Electric wire

6911 (1.1%)

6822

8439 (1.7%) Other women outerwear

3330 (7.4%)

Total Exports: 135.24 b / 15.56 T (0.87%) Total Exports: 135.24 B / 15.56 T (0.87%)

7810 (7%) Cars

7831 (1.4%) Public transportation vehicles

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Fruit

6513 (3.4%)

0360

0011 2682 65926716 (0.81%)

0572

6584 8423 (1.4%) 8429

6552 8472 8452 8441 8431 8424 (1.1%) (0.95%) 8435 8433 0542 (3.5%) 0577 (4.4%)

2782 0577 (22%)

8451 (2.5%)

6514

2789 (2.3%) 2742

2683 0812 (2.5%)

Total Exports: 12.17 b / 2.79 T (0.44%)

8439 (2.5%)

6821 (3.9%)

0542

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Total Exports: 12.17 B / 2.79 T (0.44%)

8481 (4.3%)

2879 (4.6%)

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 576.56 m / 228.33 B (0.25%)

2631 (36%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,826 / (63/17) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (103/25)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 730 B / (17/2) GDPpc ≥ USD 9,881 / (47/11)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 74 M / (17/2) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 135 B / (31/4)

0980

6612 (1.1%) Cement

8931

0571

2879

0572

2871

8939 (1.1%) Miscellaneous articles of plastic

4312

0484 0589

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0565

1211

5834 6210 5541

6513 6539

0577 (0.85%) Edible nuts

6613 (0.88%) Building & monumental

6595 (0.86%) Man-made carpets

328 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

turkmenistan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.217 / (115/26)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.34% / (109/26)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.965

0.97

0.975

0.98

0.985

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.6 k 1.2 k 960 640 320 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 329

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 367.05 M / 4.30 T (0.01%)

3345

EXPORT TREEMAP

3414 (89%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

2001

Total Exports: 367.05 m / 4.30 t (0.01%)

2631 (94%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,568 / (66/18) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 46 % (35/10)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 17 B / (97/21) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,374 / (83/22)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 5 M / (96/17) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.9 B / (83/19)

Total Exports: 2.21 b / 5.90 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 2.21 B / 5.90 T (0.04%)

2631 (5.2%)

2116 2111 2681 6592

6513 (1.5%) 6522

3222

8462 8459 7923

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 7.91 b / 15.56 T (0.05%)

Total Exports: 7.91 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)

3414 (94%) petroleum gases

6513 (1.2%)

6521

6584 2631 (1.9%)

5832 (1.4%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

330 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

uganda ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.488 / (87/7)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.29% / (24/3)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3 Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

3 2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.02

0.03

Distance

2008

0.04

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

110 88 66 44 22 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 331

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 172.46 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

2631 (20%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 331.61 m / 2.79 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 331.61 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0711 (92%)

6821 (12%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 172.46 m / 228.33 B (0.08%)

0711 (57%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 55 / (127/25) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 12 % (121/25)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 14 B / (101/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 456 / (122/20)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 32 M / (35/7) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.7 B / (117/21)

2112

2111

2114 0741 (4.9%)

2634 (1.7%)

7929 2112 0980

0813

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 1.73 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

0711 (26%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

Total Exports: 1.73 B / 15.56 T (0.01%) 0542

0612

6783 (2.4%) Other 6749 (2.1%) Other iron or steel tubes & worked iron/steel pipes sheets

7239 (1.1%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts 7821 N.E.S.(0.9%)

7643 (4.5%) Television & radio transmitters

7361 (0.71%) 0342

7162

6612 (5%) Cement

2926 (2.7%) Live plants

0721 (1.5%) Raw & roasted coffee beans 0611 (1.4%) Raw sugar beet & cane

0741 (3%) Tea

9710 (2.8%) Gold, non-monetary

2879

1212 (4.2%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0422 (0.67%)

2634 (0.83%) 0440

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

1123 (2.6%) Beer

0344 6116

8928 (4%) Printed matter N.E.S.

5530 (0.56%) 4312 (1.9%) 0484 (0.91%) Hydrogenated oils 1110

4242 2225 (0.91%)

2919 (0.93%)

7831

0470

0343 (6.4%) Fresh or chilled fish fillets

5541 (1.3%) Soaps

8939 (0.52%) 6732 (1.7%) 3510 (0.7%) 6581 Iron/steel rods 2690

5233

332 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

ukraine ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.559 / (42/15)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.73% / (7/3)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-1 0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.005

Distance

2008

0.01

0.015

0.02

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.4 k 1.1 k 840 560 280 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 333

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 5.00 B / 4.30 T (0.12%)

2816 (6.1%)

2815 (2.8%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

6725 (11%)

5621 (8.1%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 5.00 b / 4.30 t (0.12%)

6725 (13%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,448 / (69/20) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 37 % (53/13)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 180 B / (45/6) GDPpc ≥ USD 3,899 / (80/21)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 46 M / (25/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 67 B / (45/8)

Total Exports: 15.70 b / 5.90 T (0.27%) Total Exports: 15.70 B / 5.90 T (0.27%)

6727 (2.9%) 6716 (2.8%)

2873 (1.7%)

2816 5225 (1.9%)

6732 (6.8%)

2815 (1.6%)

6712 (4.6%)

6727 (3.6%)

6716 (3.2%)

5225 (6.7%)

6899 6841 (1.5%)

6746 (2.4%)

6891 5629 (2.2%)

3222

5113 5111

6821

2224 (2.8%)

6732 (5.1%)

8431 (1.8%) 2111

5922

6114 6731 (4.9%)

6760 7932 (2.6%)

6770

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

8439

4236 (1.8%) 0615

5121 (1.7%)

2631

3222 6733 6745 6724 6712 (1.5%) 0412 (1.8%) 0430 (1.6%) 6749 6954 (3%) 7239 7267 6418 6770 4236 (1.7%) 2224 6259 7491 6731 6782 7432 7372 7416 7361 7915 7931 5621 (2.8%) 5331 (2.6%) (1.8%) 7188 5113 7919 6419 5232 7148 6251 6424 6744 (3.5%)

6744 (4.4%) 6733 6745 6746

6783 (1.5%)

6899 6821 6841 (2.8%) 2782 (1.2%) 6998 3232

6517

2482

7752 2472

3510 0224 (1.1%) 5922

0230 8431

0111 (1.2%)

6113

0240

2820 (2.6%)

0730 0620

Total Exports: 63.01 b / 15.56 T (0.43%) Total Exports: 67.01 B / 15.56 T (0.43%)

6725 (16%) Iron/steel billets

6744 (5.8%) Iron/steel >=4.75mm tick sheets

6727 (3.7%) Iron/steel 4236 (3%) Sunflower seed 0412 (3%) Other wheat & coils oil meslin, unmilled

2815 (2.1%) Not agglomerated iron ore

2816 (1.6%) Agglomerated iron ore 2873 (0.83%)

0430 (2.6%) Unmilled barley 6716 (3%) Ferro-alloys

6733 (1.7%) Iron/steel shapes

2226 (2.3%) Rape & colza seeds

6746 (1.5%) Iron/steel <3mm tick sheets

6731 (2.1%) Iron/steel wire rod

7919 (1.1%) Railway track & vehicle parts N.E.S. 7431

6782 (1.9%) NULL 7372

7239 (0.94%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S.

0813

7148 (0.6%)

2782

5225 (1.3%)

3221 (0.78%)

3232 (0.59%)

1222

6745 (1.4%) 6712 (1.3%) Pig 6732 (4.6%) Iron/steel rods Iron/steel 3 - & cast iron 4.75mm tick sheets

7915 (3.4%) Not 7711 (1.2%) mechanically Electrical propelled railway for transformers freight

6841 (0.59%) 2734

4242 6783 (2.3%) Other iron or steel tubes & pipes

0440 (1.2%) Unmilled maize

5621 (3.3%) Nitrogenous fertilizers

5221

5331

5629

6419 7731 (1.2%) Electric wire

3510 (0.86%)

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6911

2483

0730 (0.9%)

0240

0484

2820

1124

6114

7912

8431

334 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

united Arab emirates ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.106 / (66/6)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.21% / (116/13)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.915

-1

-2

0.92

0.925

0.93

0.935

0.94

0.945

0.01

Distance

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

47 k 37.6 k 28.2 k 18.8 k 9.4 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 335

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.84 M / 228.33 B (0.001%)

0752 (7.2%)

5989 (11%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Total Exports: 11.65 b / 2.79 T (0.42%) Total Exports: 11.65 B / 2.79 T (0.42%)

3330 (82%)

7932 (7.2%)

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 2.84 m / 228.33 B (0.001%)

0751 (14%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 46,823 / (3/1) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 80 % (8/1)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 261 B / (35/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 58,272 / (6/2)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 4.5 M / (100/12) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 210 B / (18/2)

3413 6841 (8.6%)

7821 (2.9%) 7851 (2.1%) 2929 (1%) 0422 (18%)

0612 0460 5621 (3.6%) 2924 0577 (3.6%) 5922 (8.4%)

7283 6652 (3%) 6664 (2.7%)

2882

5241 (1.3%)

8973

3354 2482 (2.2%)

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

2471 (0.98%)

6612

8999 (1.5%)

9710

4312

Total Exports: 210.03 b / 15.56 T (1.35%) Total Exports: 210.03 B / 15.56 T (1.35%)

3330 (69%) Crude petroleum

9710 (7.8%) Gold, non-monetary

7821 (1.6%) Trucks & vans

7188

6251

7643 (1.4%) Television & radio transmitters 8973 (3.2%) Precious jewellery

6613 (1.9%) Building & monumental stone

6672 (5.7%) Not mounted diamonds 0422 0612

6812 (3.5%) Unwrought metals of platinum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

1222

6531 (0.91%) Continuous synthetic woven 5831 fabrics

336 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

united kingdom ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.558 / (9/2)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.16% / (77/4)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5

0.5

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

1.5

0.5

-0.02

0.78

-0.015

2008

-0.01

-0.005

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

7.8 k 6.2 k 4.6 k 3.1 k 1.5 k 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 337

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 15.58 b / 228.33 B (6.83%) Total Exports: 15.58 B / 228.33 B (6.83%)

7810 (7%)

7244 (2.7%)

7411 (1.6%)

7821 (2.4%)

7841

8745 (1.3%)

3345 5148

6672 (5.6%)

8822

5417 (1.9%) 6419

7452 6782 7271 6940 6991 7281 7783 7491

7842 (5.3%)

5989 (1.9%)

5335

6424 5232 5530

5413 6573

6812 (1.6%)

6831

2782 6998

6811 6851 7212 7499 (2.7%) 1124 (5.1%) 6953 8960 26658928 6512 (1%) (0.89%) (0.85%) 7851 2820 7518 8942 6822 7131 7928 7932 6960 7852 6638 6118 (1.2%) (1.5%) (1.4%) (1.8%) 6665 7788 6747 7731 7512 7781 (1%) 0430 1222 6749 8731 6770 0730 (1.2%) 8811 6911 5513

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7810 (10%) Cars

8921 (1.3%)

5542

EXPORT TREEMAP

7224 (1.1%) 7139

7492

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Western Europe.

Total Exports: 145.53 b / 2.79 T (5.21%) Total Exports: 145.53 B / 2.79 T (5.21%)

6251 7491 7449 8743 7234 7431 7162 7138 7436 8741 9510 7132 7441 7439 7428 6418 7169 7493 7413 7452 7599 7523 (2%) 7525 8983 7528 (2.5%) 7611 7788 7929 (2.6%)

7924 (2.1%)

5989 8748 5111 (1.2%) (1.1%) 8720 8822 5331 5156 5148 2331 (0.86%) 5137 5311 3330 (8.7%)

5530 8939 (0.88%) 5542 5413 0819 5334 5419

8921

8922 5911

5232

1124 (2.5%)

7518 7648 7643 7781 7591 7923 7931 (3.7%) (1.3%) 6672 (4.4%) 7149 7148

5145 8742 5417 (2.7%) 5982

0224 6812 2782 0112 (0.86%) 2882 2820 5241 8928

8960 (1.4%) 6911 6997

5823

1222

5989 (1.9%) Chemical products

5156 (1%)

5416

5148

8720

6725 6733 6252

Total Exports: 476.24 b / 15.56 T (3.06%) Total Exports: 476.24 B / 15.56 T (3.06%) 7821 (1.4%) Trucks & vans

7162 (1.1%) AC electric motors & generators

7234 (1.4%) Construction & mining machinery

7239 8741 (0.92%) (0.79%) Bulldozers, angledozers & 7436 levellers parts N.E.S.

7139

7441

7224

7138 6832

7132 (1.6%) 8743 7149 (3.3%) Parts of gas & reaction engines

7188 7599 (1.5%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines 7523

7144 (1.7%) Reaction engines

7528 6725

7492 (1%) Valves

5417 (9.8%) Medicaments

5530 (1.6%) Perfumery 8939 (0.9%) 5419 & cosmetics Miscellaneous 8922 articles of plastic 5542 6424 8921 (1.1%) 5335

7283

7929 (3.9%) Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

6210

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Petrochemicals

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 7,752 / (31/13) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 18 % (105/14)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 2.7 T / (6/3) GDPpc ≥ USD 43,361 / (18/12)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 61 M / (21/3) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 476 B / (9/6)

8841

9710 (2.7%) Gold, non-monetary 7788 (1.2%) Other electrical machinery & 8973 (1.5%) equipment N.E.S. 7641

6812 (1.6%) Unwrought metals of platinum

2882 (0.99%) Other non-ferrous base metals 6672 (3.1%) Not mounted diamonds 6811 (0.89%) Unwrought silver

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

8996

5111

8742

8744

5154

5827

8748

5233

1124 (2.5%) Alcoholic beverages

8960 (1.9%) Works of art

0980

6996

2820 (1.3%) Iron & steel waste

0484

0015

0430

338 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

united states of america ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 1.447 / (13/1)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.01% / (91/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5

-0.5 0.5

0.55

0.6

-0.06

0.65

-0.05

2008

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

4.3 k 3.4 k 2.5 k 1.7 k 860 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 339

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

5989 (2.4%) 8745 (2.2%)

7499 (2.8%) 7411 (2.2%)

7452 7822

7281

3345

7783

7212

8921 (1.1%)

7371 7283

6940 6991 7518 (1.8%) 7512 7928 (2.4%) (0.83%) 8813 7131 (2.1%) 7788 (1.4%)

5413

EXPORT TREEMAP

8731 (1.7%)

5335 2471 (2.2%) 6413 2516 6842 6349 6953 (0.94%)

4232 5513 0459 0460 (1.2%) 0421

7721 (1.5%) Switchboards, relays & fuses 7821 (1.4%) Trucks & vans

7849 (3.4%) Other vehicles parts

8743 (0.48%)

7162

8741

7442

7239 (1.6%) Bulldozers, angledozers & levellers parts N.E.S. 7924 (4.1%) Aircrafts of more 7929 (2.4%) than 15 tons Aircraft equipment parts N.E.S.

7923 (0.75%) 7144 (0.74%)

7449

7234

7212

7284 7139 7493 8749 (1.4%)

7599 (4.4%)

7768 (1.6%) 7525 (1.2%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Total Exports: 314.77 B / 2.79 T (11.26%)

7132

7239 7452 7721 (1.4%)

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Tropical agric.

Cereals & veg. oils

Total Exports: 314.77 b / 2.79 T (11.26%)

6940 7431 8748 5989 8822 (1.5%) 7416 8720 6954 5839 5138 5137 5148 3345 8996 5161 5416 2331 0819 5413 8922 8921

7764 (3%) 7523 7924 (3.9%) (2.1%)

8983 7522 (1.3%) (1%) 7788 (1.2%)

7648

7528 (1%)

7929 (2.3%)

2471 (1.2%)

7149 (2%)

7731 2517 6413

7144

7521

0440 (2.6%)

0813

0412

2631 (1%) 5832 0577

2483 3222 (1.9%) 7414

1222 1212

0116 0114 0342

2882 2782 9710 5241

7131

2222 (2.3%)

2111

2820 3354 (0.76%) 2871 5823

0980 0579

Total Exports: 1.30 T / 15.56 T (8.36%)

7234 (1%) 7492 Construction & mining machinery 7132 (0.85%) 7436 Internal combustion engines for 6940 motor vehicles 7449

7452

7284 (1.6%) Specialized industry machinery & parts N.E.S

7149 (2%) Parts of gas & reaction engines

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). North America.

1222

6998 5225 2820 8928 2789 (0.82%) (1.3%) 4113 0116 0980 6811 3354 5121 2741 2111

Total Exports: 1.30 t / 15.56 T (8.36%)

7810 (5.3%) Cars

0813 (1.6%)

8720 0819 6419 2713 2631 (0.84%) (2.8%) 5622 5221 6424

EXPORT TREEMAP

7849 (5.6%)

8822 2331 2222 (4.6%) (0.92%) 5148 0440 (4%) 5155 5137

5621

7821 (2.1%)

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 36.27 B / 228.33 B (15.89%)

9510 (4%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 4,271 / (42/2) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 9 % (125/2)

Total Exports: 36.27 b / 228.33 B (15.89%)

7842 (9.8%)

2008

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 14 T / (1/1) GDPpc ≥ USD 47,209 / (13/1)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 304 M / (3/1) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.3 T / (3/1)

8720 (1.7%) Medical instruments N.E.S.

8748

5989 (1.7%) Chemical products

5156

8744

5112

8742

7742

8939 (0.76%)

5542 8921

5530 (0.72%)

5137 5416

5831 5629 (0.77%) Polyethylene 5221

5839 (0.9%) 5148 Other polymerization 5161 & 8996 (0.82%) copolymarization products

9710 (2%) Gold, non-monetary

6672 (1.6%) Not mounted diamonds

2882 (0.71%)

6842

2820 (1.1%) Iron & steel waste

8960 2517 (0.83%) Works of art

5823

6812

7764 (4.2%) Electronic microcircuits 8973

7599 (1.5%) Parts of cash registers & calculating machines

7788 (0.81%) 7528

7763 (0.84%)

8841

7523 (0.82%)

2890 (0.61%)

3222 (0.84%)

2222 (1.6%) Soya beans 0412 (1.2%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled 0440 (1.5%) Unmilled maize

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2631

0114 0113

0111

0980

8931

340 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

uruguay ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ 0.109 / (56/6)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.53% / (61/12)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum Fraction of products with RCA > 1

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.02

0.025

Distance

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

1.8 k 1.4 k 1k 720 360 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 341

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 176.88 M / 228.33 B (0.08%)

0111 (23%)

0421 (2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

2682 (3.9%)

2687 (2.8%)

0149 (2.9%) 2686 (1.8%) 6114 (3.8%) 2685

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

0112 6130 (1.6%) 0116

6612 (1.9%)

0011

6114 (10%)

0421 (4.9%)

2681 (3.9%)

2682 (2.5%)

2687 (2.3%)

6129 2919 6113 (1.5%)

0111 (6.8%)

8483 (2.6%) 0012 0344 (2.3%)

6123

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

(1.1%)

0342 (1.6%)

9710 (7.6%)

0814

0116 0240 (1.1%)

4113

5334 (1.7%)

5913 5311

5622 5542 6624 2472 6252 8211 0579 0980 6412

0343 0360 0149

8421

8431 8424 (1.1%) 6542 (2%) 6522

2222 0571 (1.5%) (1.2%) 0813 0430 0482

2686

2733

2117

0422 8481 (3.3%) (2%) 8451 (1.2%)

2734

2116 (2.7%) 2111

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 1.50 B / 2.79 T (0.05%)

6512 (12%)

4241 6512 (15%)

Food Processing

Total Exports: 1.50 b / 2.79 T (0.05%)

0422 (1.1%) 0813

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 176.88 m / 228.33 B (0.08%)

2681 (27%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 1,794 / (64/6) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 19 % (102/16)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 31 B / (80/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 9,351 / (48/5)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 3.3 M / (112/19) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 6 B / (90/14)

5922

Total Exports: 5.98 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 5.98 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)

0111 (23%) Bovine meat

0112 (1.4%) Sheep & goat meat

2222 (6.3%) Soya beans

0422 (6.7%) Semi or wholly milled rice

0482 (3.3%) Roasted & unroasted malt, including flour

0011 (1.2%)

4113 (1%) 0149

0412 (2.5%) Other wheat & meslin, unmilled

0116

0421 (1.8%) Unprepared rice in the husk or husked

0571 (1.2%) Fresh or dried oranges & m&arines

0115 8483 0224 (3.6%) Preserved, concentrated or sweetened milk & cream

6114 (4.7%) Bovine & equine leather

0342 (2.4%) Frozen fish, excluding fillets

2472 (3.3%) Sawlogs & veneer logs of 0344 (0.86%) non-coniferous Frozen fish fillets

2460 (3.2%) Pulpwood

6342 (0.91%) Sheets of plywood

8931 (2.6%) Closable plastic packing

0914

8211 2483

0240 (2.9%) Cheese & curd

0223 (1.1%) Fresh milk & cream 0230 (0.67%)

6512 (2.4%) Wool yarn or animal hair 2919 (1.2%)

2681

2682

6210 (1.3%) Materials of rubber 5834

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

5542 (1.2%) Organic surface-active agents N.E.S.

5231

5912 (0.52%)

5629

9710 (1.3%) Gold, non-monetary

6783 (0.89%)

7832 (0.67%) 6542

8431

342 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

uzbekistan ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.658 / (96/24)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.61% / (55/22)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum 3

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

22% of WT

2.5

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

Distance

2008

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

260 208 156 104 52 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 343

1994

EXPORT TREEMAP

2001

Total Exports: 1.20 b / 4.30 B (0.03%) Total Exports: 1.20 B / 4.30 T (0.03%)

2631 (90%)

6861 (1.4%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 255 / (110/26) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 25 % (83/20)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 28 B / (85/18) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,023 / (111/25)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 27 M / (39/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7 B / (87/20)

Total Exports: 2.05 b / 5.90 T (0.03%) Total Exports: 2.05 B / 5.90 T (0.03%)

2631 (40%)

3414 (16%)

9710 (7.5%)

6811 5241 (1.6%)

6821 (3.8%) 5241 (3.4%)

6821

6861 (1.8%)

6521 (1.3%)

6513 (6%)

2633 5621 6822 0344

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

6521 (2%)

6522 0575

0544

0813 1211

2613

0579 (2.1%)

0545

6732

0565

3510

5621 6822 (0.74%) 2919

6577 (1.2%)

Total Exports: 6.97 b / 15.56 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 6.97 B / 15.56 T (0.04%)

3414 (35%) petroleum gases

7810 (11%) Cars

2631 (8.5%) Raw cotton

0575 (1%) 6822 5241 (8.1%) Radioactive chemical elements 9710 (5.1%) Gold, non-monetary

6821 (5.8%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

5629 (3.2%) Fertilizers

5621 (2.1%) Nitrogenous fertilizers 6612 (1.3%) Cement

2890

7711

6861 (1.7%) Unwrought zinc & alloys

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

6513 (3.1%) Cotton yarn

5831 (1.3%) 0579 (1.8%) Fresh or Polyethylene dried fruit N.E.S.

8462

6732 (1.1%) Iron/steel rods 7731

0545 (0.54%)

344 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

venezuela, rb ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.109 / (111/21)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.23% / (115/21)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.982

0.984

0.986

0.988

0.99

0.992

0.994

Distance

2008

0.02

0.04

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

3k 2.4 k 1.8 k 1.2 k 600 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 345

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 2.81 b / 228.33 B (1.23%) Total Exports: 2.81 B / 228.33 B (1.23%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (74%)

3330 (97%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Latin America and the Caribbean.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 3,039 / (50/3) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 27 % (74/9)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 312 B / (30/4) GDPpc ≥ USD 11,150 / (43/2)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 28 M / (38/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 85 B / (38/3)

Total Exports: 10.56 b / 2.79 T (0.38%) Total Exports: 10.56 B / 2.79 T (0.38%)

6841 (8.9%)

6746 6783 6725 6731 6842 (2.3%)

6732 6417 2815 (2.2%)

5621 3345

2873

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 84.88 b / 15.56 T (0.55%) Total Exports: 84.88 B / 15.56 T (0.55%)

3330 (95%) Crude petroleum

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0342

346 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

vietnam ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.181 / (67/11)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.48% / (12/4)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.025

Distance

2008

0.03

0.035

0.04

0.045

0.05

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

730 584 438 292 146 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 347

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 32.04 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

0741 (4.2%)

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Total Exports: 539.00 m / 2.79 T (0.02%) Total Exports: 539.00 M / 2.79 T (0.02%)

0360 (38%)

2820 (4%)

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). East Asia and Pacific.

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 32.04 m / 228.33 B (0.01%)

2320 (53%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 728 / (86/12) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 70 % (14/5)

Petrochemicals

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

GDP ≥ USD 90 B / (59/12) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,047 / (109/14)

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 86 M / (13/5) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 63 B / (48/10)

2924 (5.2%) 0711 (3.7%)

2222 (2.5%)

0440 4249 5513

0422 (2.4%)

2221 (1.8%)

2919 (3.1%)

7821 (1.8%)

0819 (3.6%) 0812 0488 2924 (1.1%) 0752 8997 (2.1%) 2929 (1.1%) 0440 (2.1%) 4234 2613 5513

EXPORT TREEMAP

0752 0751 0548

2640 2922 (0.96%) 7932 (1.8%) 0711 (3.8%)

2008

0360 (1.2%)

3330 (9.7%)

2221 (1.6%)

0577 (1.2%)

0741

2225

3221

2472 (2.6%)

6953 2820 (3.2%)

3222 6597 6611 0980

6597

0372 2919 (1.8%)

0344 2111

7763 8942 0586 (0.87%) 0579 8947 8482 0980

8997 (1.7%) 6584 8441 (0.92%) 8462 0350 0342 2120 (1.4%) 0251 8423 8429

Total Exports: 62.76 b / 15.56 T (0.4%) Total Exports: 62.76 B / 15.56 T (0.4%)

8510 (8.9%) Footwear

8439 (2.4%) Other women outerwear

8310 (1.1%)

8451 (2%) Knitted jerseys, pullovers & cardigans

8431 (0.98%)

8462 (1.5%) Knitted undergarments of cotton

0422 (5.4%) Semi or wholly milled rice

0577 (1.7%) Edible nuts

7518 (2.4%) Office machines N.E.S.

7638 (0.78%)

7641 8423 (1.5%) Men's trousers

8429

6589

8452

8421

0711 (4%) Green & roasted coffee & coffee substitutes

2320 (2.9%) Natural rubber, latex & gums

6727 (0.83%) 6725 (0.7%)

8441 (0.72%)

7162

7161

6749

8459 (2.5%) Other knitted outerwear 8424 3330 (19%) Crude petroleum

3221 (2.6%) Anthracite

0360 (3.4%) Fresh, chilled, frozen or 8219 (3.5%) Furniture parts N.E.S. salted crustaceans & molluscs

0344 (3%) Frozen fish fillets

8973 (0.72%) * Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

0372 (0.78%)

7731 (1.9%) Electric wire 2460

0342 (0.66%)

6649

0371

8211 (1.5%) Chairs & seats

8939

5621

8931

0579

348 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

yemen ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -1.042 / (107/12)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 1.86% / (96/8)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

Distance

2008

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

360 288 216 144 72 0

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 349

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 56.75 M / 228.33 B (0.02%)

2783 (6%) 2116 (7.8%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Middle East and North Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

EXPORT TREEMAP

3330 (82%)

2114 (5.2%)

2919 (3.1%)

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

1988

Total Exports: 56.75 m / 228.33 B (0.02%)

3330 (27%)

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 338 / (103/15) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 29 % (68/12)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 27 B / (86/15) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,175 / (103/16)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 23 M / (43/6) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 7.8 B / (85/15)

Total Exports: 170.37 m / 2.79 T (0.01%) Total Exports: 170.37 M / 2.79 T (0.01%)

0360 (10%)

2117 (1.2%) 2111

0350 (8.5%) 2631 (20%)

2223 (3.6%)

2922 (2.9%)

0350 0616 (1.6%) 2119 9610 (9.6%)

0711 (1.4%)

2634

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

7641 (1.1%) 3345

Total Exports: 7.75 b / 15.56 T (0.05%) Total Exports: 7.75 B / 15.56 T (0.05%)

3330 (88%) Crude petroleum

0341 (1.1%) Fresh or chilled fish, excluding fillets 0342 (0.93%) 0360 (0.71%)

7234 (1.1%) Construction & mining machinery 7831 (0.66%) 7931 3352 (1.4%) Mineral tars

0573

1222

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

350 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

zambia ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.933 / (105/14)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 2.06% / (85/15)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.01

2008

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

Opportunity Gain

Distance

Evolution of export composition

1.1 k 880 660 440 220 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 351

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 756.81 m / 228.33 B (0.33%) Total Exports: 756.81 M / 228.33 B (0.33%)

1988

EXPORT TREEMAP

Mining

Total Exports: 1.13 b / 2.79 T (0.04%) Total Exports: 1.13 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

6821 (88%)

6821 (98%)

Oil

Coal

Precious Stones

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Misc. Agriculture

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

Fish & Seafood

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 406 / (101/11) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 36 % (56/12)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 14 B / (102/13) GDPpc ≥ USD 1,140 / (104/12)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 13 M / (61/16) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 5.1 B / (93/8)

6899 6822 (3.9%)

6861 (1.1%) 1212 6811 0574 6673 0575 (1.8%) 2631 6521

2008

EXPORT TREEMAP

Total Exports: 5.12 b / 15.56 T (0.03%)

Total Exports: 5.12 B / 15.56 T (0.03%)

6821 (44%) Unwrought copper & copper alloys

6822 (24%) Worked copper & copper alloys

6999 (6.1%) Other base metal manufactures N.E.S.

1211 (1.4%) Unstripped tobacco

0440 (1.1%)

2871 (14%) Copper

0460 (0.56%)

0611 (1.2%) Raw sugar beet & cane 7731 (1.1%) Electric wire

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

2631 5222

0546

352 | THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY

zimbabwe ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY INDEX [2008] ≥ -0.327 / (80/6)

EXPECTED GDPpc GROWTH * ≥ 3.79% / (6/1)

*Expected annual average for the 2009-2020 period.

2008 Product Space

Product exported with RCA>1 Product not exported with RCA>1 Node size is proportional to world trade

Export Opportunity Spectrum

22% of WT

6% of WT 2% of WT 0.8% of WT 0.06% of WT

Average Complexity of Missing Products

Fraction of products with RCA > 1

Average Complexity of Missing Products

2008

-1

-2

-1

-2 0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.01

0.02

Distance

2008

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Opportunity Gain

Evolution of export composition

200 160 120 80 40 0

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY | 353

1968

EXPORT TREEMAP

6673 (5.7%)

2789 (5%)

5417 5542 6424 5530 (1.8%) (0.97%) 6419 5335 5322 (4.3%)

6421 (3.8%)

6911 (2.6%) 6732 (1.2%) 0116 0224 6618

6210 7831 7211

6991 6647

8510 (1.8%)

0914 (1.2%) 0980 (0.85%) 6575 6517

1211 (6.2%)

8310 6513

6831 (13%)

0611 (3.4%)

2927 (12%) Flora

Total Exports: 1.72 b / 15.56 T (0.01%)

Mining

Oil

Coal

0711 (2.1%)

1213 2927 2784 (5.6%)

0412 6821 (3.2%) 6725

1212 (5.5%) Wholly or partly stripped tobacco

0111 (4.2%)

8439

6521

6871

1222 (1.6%) Cigarretes

7821 (3.5%) Trucks & vans

8743 (3.3%) Gas, 8946 liquid & electric control instruments

1213

0612 (1.7%) Refined sugar

0572 0813 (0.99%) Fresh or dried citrus N.E.S 2731 2789

3232 (0.99%)

6612 (0.97%)

6672 (0.9%) Not mounted diamonds

6513 (3.4%) Cotton yarn

6991

6954 2631 (5.5%) Raw cotton

6114 8423 6513

2731 2881 (1.6%) (0.95%)

Total Exports: 1.72 B / 15.56 T (0.01%)

1211

2872 (18%) Nickel

Precious Stones

6716 (23%)

1223

0612 0571 7731 6351 6940 6716 6733 (1.7%) (1%) (1.1%) 6996 6921 6353 1222 0814 6783 8928 6951 6935 8993 0141 7781 6770 8960 6423

EXPORT TREEMAP

Beer/Spirits & cigs.

Total Exports: 1.13 B / 2.79 T (0.04%)

2631 (6.5%)

6924

2008

Food Processing

Garments

Textile & Fabrics

Not classified

Total Exports: 1.13 b / 2.79 T (0.04%)

1212 (15%)

1123 (7.5%)

Misc. Agriculture

Fruit

Tobacco

Cotton/rice/soy & others

Cereals & veg. oils

Tropical agric.

EXPORT TREEMAP

* Data are from 2008. Numbers indicate: Value (World Ranking / Regional Ranking). Sub-Saharan Africa.

5621 (1.6%) 5221

0111 (13%)

Fish & Seafood

1988

Total Exports: 24.65 m / 228.33 B (0.01%) Total Exports: 24.65 M / 228.33 B (0.01%)

2784 (11%)

Meat & eggs

Animal Fibers

Milk & cheese

Leather

Petrochemicals

EXPORTS PER CAPITA ≥ USD 138 / (119/19) EXPORTS AS SHARE OF GDP ≥ 41 % (44/9)

Inor. salts & acids

Other Chemicals

Agrochemicals

Chemicals & health

Pulp & paper

Home & office

GDP ≥ USD 4.2 B / (124/22) GDPpc ≥ USD 341 / (125/23)

Constr. matl. & eqpt.

Metal products

Ships

Boilers

Aircraft

Machinery

Electronics

POPULATION ≥ 12 M / (62/17) TOTAL EXPORTS ≥ USD 1.7 B / (118/22)

6716 (3%) Ferro-alloys

8219 (1%)

2482 (0.98%)

7711 (2.6%) Electrical transformers

8960 (2.7%) Works of art

2471

0545 (1.6%) 0586 Other fresh or chilled vegetables

* Numbers indicate SITC-4 rev 2 codes. Parenthesis indicate percentage of total exports. Treemap Headers show: Total Trade/Total World Trade (share of world trade represented by the country).

7188

0546 (0.78%) 6421

6535 (0.74%) 8422 (2.5%) Men's suits

5137 (1.7%) Monocarboxylic acids & derivatives

5232 (0.71%)

8748 (1.5%) Electrical measuring & controlling instruments N.E.S.

5231 (0.67%)

8928 (4.1%) Printed matter N.E.S.

CHE 1 SWE 2 AUT 3 GBR 4 JPN 5 FRA 6 USA 7 ITA 8 BEL 9 NOR 10 FIN 11 DNK 12 NLD 13 HKG 14 HUN 15 POL 16 IRL 17 PAN 18 PRT 19 KOR 20 ISR 21 CAN 22 BGR 23 ESP 24 CHN 25 ROU 26 SLV 27 SGP 28 JOR 29 CRI 30 NZL 31 AUS 32 URY 33 GRC 34 MEX 35 CHL 36 GTM 37 IND 38 LBN 39 MAR 40 MRT 41 ARG 42 CUB 43 COL 44 EGY 45 DZA 46 TUN 47 ZAF 48 MNG 49 ZWE 50 ALB 51 PAK 52 VEN 53 JAM 54 HND 55 NIC 56 TTO 57 SEN 58 SYR 59 VNM 60 OMN 61 PER 62 TUR 63 PHL 64 ECU 65 LBR 66 BOL 67 IRN 68 PRY 69 MYS 70 BRA 71 THA 72 ZMB 73 MWI 74 CIV 75 GIN 76 MLI 77 KHM 78 LAO 79 LKA 80 KEN 81 GHA 82 MDG 83 COG 84 DOM 85 ETH 86 SAU 87 IDN 88 CMR 89 AGO 90 PNG 91 MOZ 92 TZA 93 UGA 94 SDN 95 GAB 96 NGA 97 QAT 98 KWT 99 MUS 100 LBY 101

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

G lossary

D istance

is a characteristic of a country-product pair. it measures how “far” a product is from a country’s current productive capabilities. it is calculated by adding the products in which the country does not have comparative advantage, weighted by their proximity to the product in question.

D i v ersity is a country characteristic. It is the number of products that a country exports with comparative advantage. E conomic C omplexity I ndex (ECI) is a country characteristic. It is a measure of how diversified and complex a country’s export basket is. It is calculated as the mathematical limit –or eigenvector– of a measure based on how many products a country exports and how many other exporters each product has. O pportunity Value

is a characteristic of a country. It measures how well a country is positioned in the product space by calculating the distance of the country to the products it is currently not exporting with comparative advantage, weighted by the complexity value of each product. This number is higher for countries that are closer to more products and to products that are more complex.

O pportunity G ain is a characteristic of a country–product pair. It measures how much the Opportunity Value of a country will change if the country develops the capacity to export the product in question with comparative advantage. P eople b yte

is more than one personbyte. It needs to be embedded in an organization or network.

P erson b yte

is the maximum amount of productive knowledge that an average person can hold.

P roduct C ommunity

is a product characteristic. A product belongs to a community if it is closer to the other members of the community than it is to products outside of the community.

P roduct C omplexity I ndex (PCI) is a product characteristic. It is a measure of how complex a product is. It is calculated as the mathematical limit of a measure based on how many countries export the product and how diversified those exporters are. P roximity

is a characteristic of a pair of products. It measures the minimum probability that a country exports product 1 given that it exports product 2 or vice versa.

R e v ealed C omparati v e A d v antage

(RCA) is a characteristic of a country-product pair. It is calculated as the ratio of the share of a product in a country’s export basket to the share of that product in world trade. A country has RCA greater than 1 in a certain product if that product represents a larger share of its exports than of world exports.

U b i q uity is a product characteristic. It measures how many countries export a given product with comparative advantage.

R eferences & F urther R eading

S ection 1 : W hat do we mean b y economic complexity ? · Nonaka, I. & Takeuchi, H. “The Knowledge-Creating Company: How Japanese Companies Create the Dynamics of innovation,” Oxford University Press (1991). · Read, L.E. “I, pencil. My family tree as told to Leonard E. Read,” The Foundation for Economic Education (2006). · Polanyi, M. “The Tacit Dimension,” Doubleday & Co (1966). · Arrow, K. “The economic implications of learning by doing,” Review of Economic Studies 29(3), 155-73 (1962).

S ection 2 : H ow do we measure economic complexity ? · Hidalgo, C.A. & Hausmann, R. “The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, 10570-10575 (2009). · Hidalgo, C.A. “The Dynamics of Economic Complexity and the Product Space over a 42 year period,” CID Working Paper No 189, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (2009). · Hausmann, R. & Hidalgo, C.A. “The network structure of economic output” Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Growth.

R eferences · Balassa, B., “The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine - A Reappraisal,” Journal of Political Economy 72, 584-596 (1964). · Feenstra, R.; Lipsey, R.; Deng, H.; Ma, A. & Mo, H. “World Trade Flows: 1962-2000” NBER working paper 11040. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA (2005). · United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (http://comtrade.un.org/db/), accessed in August 2011.

S ection 4 : H ow is complexity different from other ap proaches ? R eferences · The World Economic Forum, “The global competitiveness report,” (various years). · Barro, R. & Lee, J-W. “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010,” NBER Working Paper No. 1590 (2010). · Kaufmann, D. & Kraay, A. “Governance Indicators: Where Are We, Where Should We Be Going?” Policy Research Working Paper 4370. Washington, DC: World Bank (2008). · Hanushek, E.A. & Woessmann, L. “The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Literature 46(3), 607668 (2008).

S ection 5 : H ow does economic complexity e v olv e ? · Hausmann, R. & Rodrik, D. “Economic development as self-dis-

covery,” Journal of Development Economics 72(2), 603-633 (2003). · Hausmann, R. & Klinger, B. “Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space,” CID Working Paper No 128. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (2006). · Hausmann, R.; Hwang, J. & Rodrik, D. “What you export matters,” Journal of Economic Growth 12(1), 1-25 (2007). · Hidalgo, C. A.; Klinger, B.; Barabási, A. & Hausmann, R. “The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations,” Science 317, 482-487 (2007). · Hausmann, R. & Klinger, B. “South Africa’s export predicament,” The Economics of Transition 16(4), 609-637 (2008). · European Bank for reconstruction and development “Trade, product mix and Growth,” Transition Report, Chapter 4 (2008). · Hausmann, R. & Klinger, B. “Policies for Achieving Structural Transformation in the Caribbean,” Private Sector Development Discussion Paper 2. Washington, D.C.: IDB (2010). · Hausmann, R., Klinger, B. & Lopez-Calix, J. “Export Diversification in Algeria” in Lopez-Calix, J.; Walkenhorst, P. & Diop, N. (editors). Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank, Washington DC (2010). · United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) “Building the productive capacity of the least developed countries,” In Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2011, Chapter 4 (2011). · Hidalgo, C.A. “Discovering Southern and East Africa’s Industrial Opportunities,” German Marshall Fund Economic Policy Series (2011). · Hidalgo, C.A. “Thinking Outside the Cube,” CA Hidalgo Physicsworld 21(12), 34-37 (2008). · Hidalgo, C.A. & Hausmann, R. “A Network View of Economic Development,” Developing Alternatives 12(1), 5-10 (2008). P roduct classi f icatio n s a n d commu n ity disco v ery al g orit h ms

· Leamer, E. E. “Sources of Comparative Advantage: Theory and Evidence,” The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (1984). · Lall, S. “The technological structure and performance of developing country manufactured exports, 1985-1998,” Queen Elizabeth House Working Paper #44, University of Oxford (2000). · Rosvall, M. & Bergstrom, C. “Maps of random walks on complex networks reveal community structure,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, 1118, (2008). · Coscia, M.; Giannotti, F. & Pedreschi, D. “A classification for community discovery methods in complex networks,” Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 4(5), 512–546, (2011).

COLOPHON P A P E R : 80# Accent Opaque text and Productolith Points Cover. C O L O R S : 5/5. T Y P O G R A P H Y : Knockout & Caecilia LT. This book was printed at Puritan Press, New Hampshire, during October 2011.

“A map does not tell people where to go, but it does help them determine their destination and chart their journey towards it. A map empowers by describing opportunities that would not be obvious in the absence of it. If the secret to development is the accumulation of productive knowledge, at a societal rather than individual level, then the process necessarily requires the involvement of many explorers, not just a few planners. This is why the maps we provide in this Atlas are intended for everyone to use.”

http://atlas.media.mit.edu

THE ATLAS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXIT Y

MAPPING PATHS TO PROSPERITY