Reversed Risk - The Gamma Plan [ upscaling and transferability - part 3] by Alexandra M F

+ Reversed Risk | | The GAMMA plan Protective productive cycle based on tidal force in estuarine territories

CMR (coastal managed realignment) - a feasible future vs. an utopic paradigm The case of cost-benefit relevance

Author: Alexandra M. Farmazon student number - 4597680 Supervisors: Dr. ir. Taneha Kuzniecow Bacchin Dr. Diego Andres Sepulveda Carmona P5 Report - Feasibility July, 2018 Reversed risk in estuarine territories

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INDEX

_01. Governance criteria 1. The national governance model and investment plan 2. Activated strategic plan and stakeholder analysis 3. The investment ethical dilemma 4. The inner structure of the UK planning system - need for integrated approach 5. The policy | department coupling 6. The policy | department coupling - the control body 7. Strategic action plan with open end 8. Detailed implementation plan 9. Transferability

_02. CMR - the paradigm of the future 1. Comparison criteria 2. The Delta Plan - Ruimte voor de river 3. The Sigma Plan

_03. The Gamma plan 1. The Gamma Plan - potential national transferability

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria

1. The national governance model and investment plan

[ Introduction ] Current sustainability concerns address carbon, water and transit, however they are all interconnected by energy. The more optimal the energy system responds to the natural processes of the urbanity and the natural unpredictability, the more efficient a metropolis functions. The Delta Interventions Graduation Studio is an inter-disciplinary studio which, on a wide variety of scales, deals with the necessary transformation of the delta and by extension the marine and estuarine territories. This thesis will be concerned with some of the most active research fields, such as - productive landscapes re-nature techniques, performative and systemic design, open-end design, climate resilient estuarine design, aiming at adding spatial consistency to existing theoretical research and strengthening quantification methods. [ UK situation ] Practically, The thesis looks towards adopting a ‘systems approach’ on flood risk alleviation, integrating three investment criteria – flood protection, energy production and added value on the Thames Estuary. Although it is not an area directly at risk from the climate change extreme scenario, the Thames Barrier however grants its uptime response

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up until 2030 and alternative strategies focus on hard infrastructure solutions. Despite the apparent deterrent to address coastal protection in a more unsuppressed and less rigid approach, also reflected in the downsize of field investments, other global trends aiming at tackling the global warming effect at an inception stage emerge. Within the 2C challenge, the global world has been concerned with energy transition, turning the level of sustainability into a competitiveness criterion, demanding increased funds. Sure, lower carbon emissions decelerate the global warming process, decreasing SLR values and risk vulnerability, making it

logic to invest in reducing the cause rather than enhance protection, however, the matter is too complex, and an integrative, holistic approach between the protective and productive fields might just as efficiently contribute. [ Although the UK’s investment capital is sufficient, what the model lacks is integration between fields, as flood management drops in urgency and energy transition flourishes. ] Consequently, a new hybrid infrastructure

can reverse the flood risk to a profitable

PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

GOVERNANCE FUNDING

DAMAGE SCHEME

GOVERNMENTAL AGENTS

AGREEMENT

ASSOCIATION BRITISH INSU

NORTHUMBRIA £9M +133% £21M

NORTH WEST YORKSHIRE

£41M -10% £37M

£43M -30% £30M

ANGLIAN NORTHERN £37M -35% £24M

MIDLANDS £40M -13% £35M ANGLIAN CENTRAL

ANGLIAN EASTERN

£18M -17% £15M

£61M -28% £44M

LONDON SOUTHERN

WESSEX

£53M -23% £41M

£71M +7% £78M

£28M -32% £19M SOUTH WEST £15M % £15M

NATIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACT https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20040329005590/en/Hydropower-Greener-Fish-Friendly-Turbines-Voith-Siemens-Hydro

fig 1.

fig 1. National potential reflection

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

ECONOMIC DOWNFALL

NORTHUMBRIA £9M +133% £21M

NORTH WEST

Governance criteria

DAMAGE SCHEME YORKSHIRE

_01. £41M -10% £37M

GOVERNMENTAL AGENTS

-30% Activated strategic plan and stakeholder analysis 2. £30M £43M

CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL ANGLIAN AGENCY NORTHERN FLOODING

£37M -35% £24M

AGREEMENT

ZONES OF RISK

MIDLANDS

ASSOCIATION OF BRITISH INSURERS

HOUSEHOLDERS

CLAIMS

£40M -13% £35M

OVER COMPENSATION ANGLIAN CENTRAL

SMALL BUSINESS

SUBSTANTIAL LOSS ANGLIAN ECONOMIC DOWNFALL EASTERN

£18M -17% £15M

fig 2.

£61M -28% £44M

LONDON SOUTHERN

WESSEX

£53M -23% £41M

£71M +7% £78M

£28M -32% £19M SOUTH WEST £15M % £15M

GLIAN TERN

fig 166. Flood investment and damage

1M 8% 4M

situation overview UK

energy source, creating a protection/ production cycle, simultaneously defending and “fueling” the city as well as retrieving its original investment.

[ Strategy Construction Process ]

The process and outcome of this project could be a starting point in adding a policy value to any urban intervention within estuarine territories – the auto-sufficiency regarding flood risk management and the energetic autosufficiency so it will be responsive in case of hazard. Its main applicability is for shallow water estuarine territories, that benefit from intense tidal changes.

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[ Stakeholders ]

The main stakeholders that might benefit from the research are the governmental organizations – The Environment Agency, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, as well as the municipality of London and municipalities adjacent to the Thames. Also, as it promotes energy production in a non-invasive way with low costs for implementation, it can draw the attention of many energy production companies – Shell, EDF Energy, Npower, E-ON UK, Scottish Power, SSE.

Activated stakeholders

Governmental bodies Activated stakeholders MR

Managed Realignment

fig3.

F P

Managed Realignment Flood protection

Flood protection Energy Production

Department for Communities and Local Government [ DCLG ]

Department for Communities and Local Government Department for Business, [ DCLG ] Energy and Industrial Strategy [ BEIS ]

Energy Production Environmental well-being

Department forfor Environment, Department Business, Foodand andIndustrial Rural Affairs Energy Strategy [ DEFRA [ BEIS ]}

Public

Environmental well-being Food productivity

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Department for Environment, [ DEFRA } Food and Rural Affairs [ DEFRA }

Municipality Committee on of Thurrock Climate Change Municipality of Basildon

Energy Saving

Trust Committee on Climate Change British Ecological Society The Wildlife Trusts

Energy Saving Trust

British Ecological Society The Wildlife Trusts

Ui S

Food productivity Urban intensification

Urban intensification Societal integration

Departmentfor forCommunities Environment, Department Food andGovernment Rural Affairs and Local DEFRA] } [[ DCLG

Department for Communities Department forGovernment Communities and Local and Local Government [ DCLG ] [ DCLG ]

Atlantis Resources Corp Current2Current Flex Marine Power Ltd Free Flow 69 Kepler Energy Renewable Devices Marine Ltd Atlantis Resources Corp Docklands Current2Current Recycling Flex Marine Power West London Ltd Waste (WLWA) Free Flow 69 Powerday Kepler Energy Renewable Devices Marine Ltd Docklands Sea fish Recycling

Societal integration

Global

Central Government

Global

Central Government

Department for Communities and Local Government [ DCLG ]

Nations and Regions Government

County \ City-level Government

Nations and Regions Government

County \ City-level Government

European Marine Engineering physical Energyand Centre sciences research council (EMEC) (EPSRC) Oxford University - Tidal Energy Research Group Research Councils UK (RCUK) Energy Programme Engineering and physical sciences research council (EPSRC) Oxford University - Tidal Energy Research Group Research Councils UK (RCUK) Energy Programme

Aquaculture UK

West London Fish Farm UK Live Waste (WLWA) Tilapia Supplier Powerday GrowUp Urban Farms Manor Farm

Municipality of Thurrock Municipality of Basildon

Municipality of Castlepoint Municipality of Castlepoint Municipality of Thurrock of Municipality Thurrock Municipality of Basildon of Municipality Basildon

Sea fish Foster and partners Fish Farm UK Live Tilapia Supplier Farrells Architecture GrowUp Urban Farms ARUP

Aquaculture UK Bartlett school of architecture AA- architectural association

Manor Farm

Foster and partners Farrells Architecture ARUP

Bartlettschool schoolofof Bartlett architecture architecture AA-architectural architectural AAassociation association

Bartlett school of architecture

Municipality of Castlepoint

Research

Ocean and Sediment Transport (COAST) Laboratory at Plymouth University

Municipality of Thurrock Municipality of Basildon ESPON Port of London Renewable UK Municipality of Castlepoint

Ocean and Sediment Transport (COAST) Laboratory at Plymouth University European Marine European Marine Energy Centre Energy Centre (EMEC) (EMEC)

Municipality of Castlepoint

Fp Ui

Private

ESPON Port of London

Environment Agency

E Fp

Research European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC)

Environment Renewable UK Agency

Private

? Governmental bodies

MR F

Public

Municipality of Thurrock Municipality of Basildon

AA- architectural association

Town / Village Level

fig3. Stakeholders matrix - classified by scale, governance level, ownership and project topic

Town / Village Level

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria 3. The investment ethical dilemma

The status quo of the North Sea [ On the importance of territorial waters in coastal flooding strategies ] Delta interventions chose as a milieu for development the contested territory between land and sea – specifically applied to the current controversial role of the North Sea – from the trading heart of Europe to a prospective boundary. In the context of extreme weather conditions and environmental shift, a climate-conscious approach to urban planning and design has played the role of a catalyst for the co-evolution of economies and societies . However, with the increasing selfawareness of entering the Anthropocene Era, it has come to the attention of both civil societies and the governmental

between Trump’s propaganda denying the climate change process – “ The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order t make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” – but also the implementation of political promise, as most governmental structures do not engage in integrated policies, focusing on strengthening specific fields. Consequently, [ the dialogue that arises at the national level, between planning against vulnerability, planning towards protection and planning towards evolution, stands as base for the thesis idea ] – a projective flood defense infrastructure that operates based on sea hydrodynamics as resource, reversing high risk levels of flooding into potential for energy harvesting.

sphere the moral culpability and practical vulnerability associated with a changing climate that puts at risk the ecosystem as a whole – centered around the survival of the human species . This paradigm is a globally spread pressing issue, however when the global and national interests meet – conflict of interest arise.

Relating the issue at hand back to the Urbanism master track, the thesis is also focused on promoting the multilayered defense strategy, the “Dutch approach to flood risk”, integrating the creativity of design methods with the rationality of academic research and technical overview.

This urgent new focus has encountered many inconsistencies, first – the disparity

The ethical dilemma – progress, prevention or emergency response

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[ From global discrepancies to national rigid planning systems] With more than 80% of Thames River banks transformed into concrete storm walls, with the Thames Barrier in place since the 70s, the dynamic tidal force is persistently causing storm surge flooding and flash floods throughout London’s dense urban areas, putting the UK coastline as a priority area among the North Sea adjoined territories – both from the point of view of event frequency but also of prospective impact.

Times quote John Pettigrew as he puts forward a much pressing point on the British investment agenda - “It is important that the UK is seen as a place that is attractive to inward investment. In terms of the energy sector, a lot of infrastructure needs to be built in the UK over the next few years. Post-Brexit, it is important that it is coming in.”

Based on this assumption, one might consider the flood adaptation strategy

Further looking into the matter, while flood defence seems to lose importance on the hierarchical chain of monetary distribution, current trends in the energy field are attracting increasing capital in UK’s national strategy. As a consequence, the Greater Thames Estuary

investigations undergone by The financial

into a cost-benefit analysis might pose a

as a priority point on the governance list, however, the Environment Agency’s funding for maintaining flood assets has fallen by 14% nationally. Recent press

region which currently contains 1 million properties would result in direct damage of at least £ 97.8 billion at 2003 prices in case of inundation thus summarizing this

“It is important that the UK is seen as a place that is attractive to inward investment. In terms of the energy sector, a lot of infrastructure needs to be built in the UK over the next few years. Post-Brexit, it is important that it is coming in.” - John Pettigrew

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria

4. The inner structure of the UK planning system - need for integrated approach

problem for the long term development of the Greater Thames Region as well as the extensive UK. Surely, the planning focal shift Is justified as the North Sea is facing an era of de pletion for f oss il f uels and the overpriced electricity bills demand urgently the transition to clean, renewable sources. In this matter, the UK is a leading power with the most extensive exclusive economic zone coverage, with intensive fossil fuel extraction platforms that are currently being transformed into energy farms throughout the continental shelf, creating a new ground for exploring a projective dimension for productive

landscape triggered by the sea dynamics, a possible paradigm for extraction that focuses on the potential of the contiguous maritime zone as well as the territorial sea as main generators.

Additionally, the focus of the thesis supports another conceptual shift â&#x20AC;&#x201C; from the recent focus of sustainability in the advancement of human development (Keenan and Weisz, 2016) to the necessity to change current behaviors in favor of a conscious awareness of the externalities of societyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s unrestrained consumption(Bowen and Hepburn,

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2014) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or, in simpler phrasing a new paradigm focused on the sustainability of resources and raw materials to be allocated to the promotion of resilience of the status quo and the adaptation of societies, economies, ecologies ( Keenan and Weisz, 2016). Already shifting the focus of energy production to the maritime territories that engage in exchanges with the land, we are discussing implicitly coastal flood strategies. From a theoretical point of view, there would be a clear interdependency between the particularity of the territorial sea hydrodynamics and the coastal adaptive response to risk. However, the UK planning system regard these issues as separate entities, under separate departments,

directly subordinated to Her Majesty, The Queen. From the Central Government level, to the Regional, County and Village level, flood risk and energy efficiency go parallel under Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy [ BEIS ] and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs [ DEFRA ], while spatial planning is addressed through a different branch - Department for Communities and Local Government

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs [ DEFRA }

National Environmental Protection Guidelines

National Industrial Strategy

National Planning Policy Framework [ NPPF ]

Deartment for Communities and Local Government [ DCLG ]

Town / Village Level

Urban Social and Economic Spending Plans

County \ City-level Government

National and Regional Environmental Protection Plans

Urban Environmental Protection Plans

City-Region Industrial Strategy City-Region Industrial Strategy

Local Enterprise Partnership [ LEP ] Plans

National and Regional Social and Economic Spending Plans

Nations and Regions Government

Site-development control

Neighbourhood planning

Area Action Plans

Town / Village Level

fig 4.

Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy [ BEIS ]

The Budget [ Revenues and Public Sector Spending ]

Her Majestyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Treasury [ HM Treasury ] The Exchequer

Central Government

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

Her Majestyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Government

fig 4. Governance model - UK case

_01.

Governance criteria

5. The policy | department coupling

Centre for Environment

Access to the countryside Animal and plant health Animal welfare Business and the environment Business regulation Building regulation City Deals and Growth Deals Climate change adaptation Climate change international action Community integration

Common Agricultural Policy reform Corporate governance Economic growth in rural areas Environmental quality Farming industry regulation

Economic development in coastal and seaside areas Energy and climate change: evidence and analysis Emergency planning Energy demand reduction in industry, business and the public sector Energy industry and infrastructure licensing and regulation Energy efficiency in buildings Exports and inward investment Food and farming industry Greenhouse gas emissions Flooding and coastal change Free trade Industrial strategy Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) and Enterprise Zones Low carbon technologies Management of the European Regional Development Fund Marine environment Marine fisheries Maritime sector Planning system Public understanding of science and engineering Regional Growth Fund Research and development Rural economy and community Social mobility Sustainable development UK economic growth UK energy security Waste and recycling Water and sewerage services Water industry Water quality

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Fisheries and Aquaculture Science

Innovate UK

Marine Management Organisation

Maritime and Coastguard Agency

The Water Services Regulation Authority

Environment Agency

Committee on Climate Change

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

Natural England

Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government

Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy

Department for International Trade

fig 4. Policies retrieves from gov.uk official website Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria

6. The policy | department coupling - the control body

Centre for Environment

Access to the countryside Animal and plant health Animal welfare Business and the environment Business regulation

[ DCLG ], thus making any communication hard if not unlikely.

Building regulation City Deals and Growth Deals Climate change adaptation Climate change international action Community integration

On this note, the thesis is trying to converge this fields into a coherent, integrated new approach to these critical issues â&#x20AC;&#x201C; flood risk and energy transition pressure â&#x20AC;&#x201C; putting forward a strategy for extraction in estuarine waters, that would require a control body to involve the highlighted departments and ensure the pairing up between policy, investment and department as shown in the figure.

However, the most conspicuous question still has a highly debatable ethical dimension â&#x20AC;&#x201C; should the National strategy allocate more money for progress in the energetic field for the greater good of the nation, or should they consider first risk priority areas for the safety of local population? Is an integrated approach even an option on the political agenda, or scoring higher on the political scene as a dominant nation has more value?

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Common Agricultural Policy reform Corporate governance Economic growth in rural areas Environmental quality Farming industry regulation

Fisheries and Aquaculture Science

Inno U

ovate UK

Marine Management Organisation

Maritime and Coastguard Agency

The Water Services Regulation Authority

Environment Agency

Committee on Climate Change

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

Natural England

Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government

Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy

Department for International Trade

fig 5. Control body between energy and coastal management

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria

7. Strategic action plan with open end

Strategic adaptive planning or open end design fig 6.

[ Research | Planning | Research by design | Design ] As the research started from a global issue, narrowing it down was one of the greatest problems to overcome, however, the intertwining of technical research has proven most efficient – building up a set of data analyzing the dynamic patterns of the North Sea and linking the most unstable areas with effects on the coastline. Thus, the thesis was divided into five parts – the theoretical and technical research, the planning model (Learn from the Dutch), research by design (understanding the local typologies) followed by the site choice and design, that eventually could have been up-scaled until the conceptual estuarine territory.

[ Implementation ] The first step revealed the decisive conditions that the North Sea projects on the UK coastline in terms of hydrodynamics – accretion and erosion – effects which lead to focusing on the understanding of an estuarine territory, the forces and internal dynamics of its

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National Government

Region County Unitary

District

[ Plan

[

[ Local D

Planning policy

National Planning Policy Framework

PPS nning Policy Statement ]

National Government

RS Regional Strategy ]

LDF Development Framework ]

County

Local Plan

District

Local Plan

Neighbourhood development plan \ order

Unitary

Parish \ Town council \ Neighbourhood forum

Development Plan

fig 6. Implementation stages - UK case

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria 8. Detailed implementation plan

shifting boundaries. Also, since The Thames estuary has been categorized as a highly tidal territory, additional technical research has supported the tidal energy transition and the possibility of harvesting it on the Thames. As there is little to no opportunity for harvesting outside of the navigational channel, as the Thames is a shallow body of water and minimum extracting depths start from 5-7m, conditions had to be created, thus emerged the consideration of managed coastal realignment strategy as a reference process. The second step was embedded into the planning model and the regional

development strategy, therefore it focused on revealing the existing chain of implementation in the UK context and recalibrate it in order to respond to a

more resilient flood defense and energy production strategy. To support the academic value and societal relevance, the Dutch and Belgium models have been chosen as reference – first Room for the river as well as The Sigma plan, which established the typology of the thesis – an integrated systemic approach between energy harvesting and resilient flood defense mechanisms that is able to protect and produce from reversing the

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risk factor into a potential factor, thus feeding the local urban system, boosting local economy and rethink the relation between two antithetic concepts – urban and tidal. The third step focused on location identification – or the so called transect criteria that combined with the suitability maps (risk, soil, urbanity level and habitat protection) resulted in a series of priority locations that can support managed coastal realignment. Based on the specificity of each location, a set of interventions has been paired and graded in order to establish hierarchical order and selected the most advantageous and promising in terms of habitat restoration and energy potential. The fourth step develops further the mezzo,

micro and nano-scale focusing both on the technical steps for implementation, but also on the local response – the stakeholder range and the character of the neighboring districts. Finally, the last stage scales up to the Thames estuary overview, reflecting the interlinked capacity of the projects, how they are all meant to complement each other and gradually make the transition to soft protective infrastructure, eventually replacing the

fig 7.

County \ City-level Government

Estimated production

Development plan

Ecoservices unfolding Planning policy

Local economic model

Development plan

governmental land aquisition and engagement of private engineering and dredging stakeholders for implementing the development plan based on the DEM

Nations and Regions Government

Environmental well-being

County \ City-level Government Food productivity

Central Government

Energy Production

Nations and Regions Government

Societal integration

Town / Village Level

Managed Realignment

Urban intensification

Central Government

Flood protection

fig 7. Stakeholders and implementation steps coupling

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria 9. Transferability

Thames Barrier, but also to the national level, revealing the potential of the new approach to be replicated on other British estuarine territories. The linking factor between these stages has constantly been the time frame , a s i n t h e f a c e o f u n c e r t a i n t y, t h e planning process needs to be extended over a longer period of time, thus raising the need of a series of control moments. This project scenario fits perfectly to the strategic adaptive pathway model, however given the level of detail and the extensive timeframe that gives room to uncontrollable levels of uncertainties, an open end design approach gives more flexibility. Additionally, as later to be seen through the case studies, this typology of strategical action can be renewed and further projects can be added consequenctly, after pre-determined periods of time. [ Trans-scalarity and technical insight ] The methodology developed focused on the following triad â&#x20AC;&#x201C; production cost-benefit, ecosystem restoration and natural development as well as recalibrated local economy, overall

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giving a sense of evolutionary ecology and capitalism weight to the regional urban system. This strong focus required a diverse collection of approaches and orientations, for not only designing and planning spaces and places that serve resilient and adaptive ends but also for the construction of new orders of the built environment (Keenan and Weisz, 2016). Then, the challenge is not to merely engage in the preservation of the built form as we know it, but to reimagine the nature of new cities and evolutionary ecologies that are inevitably influenced by the course of inundation, habitability and migration (Keenan and Weisz, 2016).

Upscaling â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a new governmental control body [ On implementing ] It was only a decade ago that extreme coastal realignment intervention â&#x20AC;&#x201C; barrier islands, sand engines, re-flooded plains - were not even considered as options in the public discourse surrounding extreme weather and climate change. It needed a paradigm shift for overcoming personal and professional biases through

fig 8.

External funding

Central Government

Her Majestyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Treasury [ HM Treasury ] The Exchequer

Her Majestyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Government

Deartment for Communities and Local Government [ DCLG ]

The Budget [ Revenues and Public Sector Spending ]

National Planning Policy Framework [ NPPF ]

European union incentinves and international partnerships for public programming

Brexit - ?

Nations and Regions Government

County \ City-level Government

National and Regional Social and Economic Spending Plans

Urban Social and Economic Spending Plans

Local Enterprise Partnership [ LEP ] Plans

Town / Village Level

Area Action Plans

Neighbourhood planning

Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy [ BEIS ]

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs [ DEFRA }

National Industrial Strategy

National Environmental Protection Guidelines

City-Region Industrial Strategy City-Region Industrial Strategy

National and Regional Environmental Protection Plans

Site-development control

Urban Environmental Protection Plans

External funding National funding

National funding County incentives

National funding County incentives District budget

fig 8. Funding scheme according to the governmental model

Under the interdependency matrix between control body | department and policy subject

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_01.

Governance criteria 9. Transferability

systematic analysis. Universal resilience is a myth, however Reversed Risk challenges the productive landscape to reconsider its resources and achieve one side of the resilience “coin”. However complex a project might be, its transferability will always be limited to the status quo of the site conditions, the timeframe and the uncertainty influence, but Reversed Risk is based on a very strong theoretical framework and a wide set of genealogies making it easy to adapt to similar estuarine conditions. As the integration can be variable, the backbone relies on main pillars of British planning practices, but also on specific concepts sustaining the paradigm shift - same path for implementation, targeted economic sectors and most importantly the specialized department to integrate the over-divided investment patterns reserved for evolutionary resilience.

estuarine area, the costly intervention will prove effective, especially since it has internal power for revenue.

https://www.ft.com/content/d3490bc8-1e16-11e8-956a43db76e69936 Besio, Cristina, and Andrea Pronzini. Morality, Ethics, and Values Outside and inside Organizations: An Example of the Discourse on Climate Change. Vol. 119,2014. doi:10.1007/s10551-013-1641-2. Dawson, R. J., J. W. Hall, P. D. Bates, and R. J. Nicholls. “Quantified Analysis of the Probability of Flooding in the Thames Estuary under Imaginable Worst-Case Sea

Therefore, at least on the North Sea coastline, the estuaries have similar characteristics, giving the project a strong potential for becoming a national strategy for estuarine territories, under the department of coastal flood risk. Consequently, as most of UK’s GDP is concentrated in cities related to an

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Level Rise Scenarios.” International Journal of Water Resources Development 21, no. 4 (2005/12/01 2005): 577-91. Gowdy, John. Coevolutionary Economics: The Economy, Society and the Environment. 1994. doi:10.1007/97894-015-8250-6. Keenan, J. and Weisz C. (2016), Blue Dunes – Climate Change by design

S_5

Leisure and habitat restoration

S_4

Knowledge based incubator

S_3 S_2

fig 9.

S_1

Aquaculture pond - oysters

SILF (small independent local farmers) Public investment ( c e n t r a l government fund)

Private engineering contractor for replacing infrastructure

IEMSC (Import-export medium-sized companies)

County \ City-level Government

Development plan

S_0

Tidal energy harvest

Aquaculture UK Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI) Vion Food Group Ltd

GrowUp Urban Farms Sea fish

New Holland farm Watts Farms

Manor Farm

Fish Farm UK Live Tilapia Supplier

subsidies EU funding ? national investment plan for private initiatives (policy table)

tax relief small and medium entreprises national funding

Atlantis Resources Corp Current2Current

specialisation and local feeding + research oriented

added economic value oriented- strong relation with the port, gross production and trade

Flex Marine Power Ltd Free Flow 69

Kepler Energy Renewable Devices Marine Ltd

Estimated production Ecoservices unfolding

Planning policy

The Wildlife Trusts

Greenspace Ecological Solutions

Mixed agriculture Aquaculture pond - halophytes

Local economic model

Development plan

fig 9. Stakeholders detailed departamental distribution and funding scheme

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_02.

CMR - the paradigm of the future 1. Comparison criteria

Reversed risk

Scale

Objective

Action plan

Stakeholders

Timeframe Investment

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Delta Plan (Ruimte voor de river)

Sigma Plan

Netherlands Belgium United Kingdom the most affected territories by Sea Level Rise, resulting in developing a similar strategy that could be transfered in the context of the British governance model with a control body addition

fig 10.

Together can become part of a consistent North Sea specific strategic approach for SLR, having as centered intervention typology Coastam Managed realignment (CMR)

fig 10. Comparison criteria table

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_02.

CMR - the paradigm of the future 2. The Delta Plan - Ruimte voor de river

“ [ Governance ]

provinces and municipalities.

Space for the river is a Dutch Key Planning Decision (PKB) with the aim of preventing flooding of the major rivers (including the IJssel ) and, in line with the ideas of Plan Ooievaar from 1986, improving the ‘spatial quality’ of the river area.

[ Action Plan ]

The PKB entered into force on 26 January 2007 and encompasses about forty different types of measures, including shifting dikes and increasing and deepening flood plains . They all aim to increase the disposal and storage

The PKB Room for the river means a break with policy in the past, the emphasis has shifted from dyke improvement to river widening. A total of 34 measures implemented as part of the program include the widening of the floodplains, shifting dykes, deepening of both floodplains and summer beds , lowering of summer quays and cribs , digging of secondary channels , unpoldering , removal of obstacles such as bridge piers and buildings in the floodplains, and - if there is no other way - also the

the threat of flooding that accompanied them led to these drastic measures.

The total budget is 2.3 billion euros. “

[ Objectives ]

capacity of the rivers and, where possible, to provide more space for nature and recreation. The extremely high water levels in the major rivers in 1993 and 1995 and

improvement and / or raising of dikes. The work started in 2006 and the program will be completed between 2013 and 2019.

[ Stakeholders ] The work within the framework of Room for the River is carried out in collaboration by Rijkswaterstaat , the Ministries of Infrastructure and the Environment and of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, various water boards,

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Text retrieved from - http://deltaproof.stowa.nl/Templates/pdf. aspx?rId=48#TECHNICAL_CHARACTERISTICS

fig 11.

fig 1. Ruimte voor de river - locations

Reversed risk in estuarine territories

_02.

CMR - the paradigm of the future 2. The Delta Plan - Ruimte voor de river

“ [ Interventions ] The room for the river approach consists of a number of separately applicable measures. Eight measures of the room for the river approach are presented in the figure below. • Groynes stabilise the location of the river and ensure its correct depth. However, in a high water situation, groynes may obstruct the flow to the river. Groynes reduce the inundation time duration, increasing floodplain resilience. • Excavating/deepening the surface of the riverbed creates more room for the river. • Eco-engineering solutions can produce natural channel designs. • If feasible, removing or modifying obstacles in the riverbed will increase the floodplain discharge capacity. • Lowering/excavating part of the floodplain increases room for the river in high water situations • Relocating a dike inland widens the floodplain and increases room for the river

• Relocating a dike inland on a large scale will widen the floodplain on a larger scale and will create more room for the river. • The dike on the riverside of a polder is lowered and relocated inland. This creates space for excess flows in extreme high water situations. • Reducing the lateral inflow by measures in the field of land use. Retention will reduce peak water flows by storing the water upstream. Runoff production can be reduced by for example reforestation. • Creating a by-pass or a high water channel. This is a dyke area branching off from the main river to discharge some of the water via a separate route. • A proper land use planning within the floodplain, preventing the increase of flood exposition in the future. “

Text retrieved from - http://deltaproof.stowa.nl/Templates/pdf. aspx?rId=48#TECHNICAL_CHARACTERISTICS

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fig 12.

fig 1. Ruimte voor de river - interventions

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CMR - the paradigm of the future 3. The Sigma Plan

“ [ Description ] Providing improved protection for Flanders against the flooding of the river Scheldt and its tributaries. And, at the same time, boosting the valuable nature surrounding the river Scheldt. That is the goal of the Sigma Plan. The Sigma Plan touches on safety, nature, recreation and the economy. The Sigma Plan protects Flanders from flooding. In extreme weather conditions, the river Scheldt and its tributaries can reach dangerously high water levels and can even overflow their banks. That is why the Sigma Plan invests in sturdier and higher levees and in a chain of natural flood control areas in the river valleys.

De Vlaamse Waterweg nv works together closely with the Agentschap voor Natuur en Bos (Agency for Nature and Forests) to achieve the conservation objectives. The project has also joined forces with local governments, farmers’ organisations, nature associations, the local population, hunters, anglers, the tourism industry, the hospitality industry and many other partners in our efforts to implement the Sigma Plan. “

Areas like these can catch excess river water in a controlled manner. This gives the rivers room to flow and to overflow. [ Stakeholders ] The Sigma Plan is a project of the Government of Flanders. Waterway manager De Vlaamse Waterweg nv coordinates the Sigma Plan and is tasked with water management.

Text retrieved from - http://sigmaplan.be/ uploads/2017/08/170817-sigmabrochure-2017-en-lr.pdf

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fig. 13.

fig 13. Sigma Plan - location

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CMR - the paradigm of the future 3. The Sigma Plan

[ Action plan ] Step 5. Finally, we purchase the land. Step 1. First, we create a land-use plan which

We work as much as possible via amicable means.

describes in detail the future use(s) of the

In certain cases, expropriation is necessary.

project area. To produce this plan, we consult with hydraulic engineers, ecologists, landscape architects, economists and sociologists. Town councils and the local residents are also involved. After all, they know the local sensitivities and needs better than anyone. Step 2. Experts investigate and report on the effects the project will have on humans and on the environment. This work is compiled in an Environmental Effect Report (EER). Will the local residents be negatively affected? What is the effect on the soil and the watercourses? Are there biodiversity-related consequences? Step 3. A regional land-use implementation plan (gewestelijk ruimtelijk uitvoeringsplan - GRUP) is written. The GRUP changes the zoning and replaces the regulations in the original regional plan. Step 4. Before the implementation of the Sigma Plan may be started, urban planning permits (SBVs) are required. These are issued on the basis of the new GRUP regulations. As soon as the permits are issued, the

land acquisitions

construction work may begin.

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and the

Text retrieved from - http://sigmaplan.be/ uploads/2017/08/170817-sigmabrochure-2017-en-lr.pdf

fig. 14.

fig 13. Sigma Plan - projects - http://sigmaplan.be/ uploads/2017/08/170817-sigmabrochure-2017-en-lr.pdf

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CMR - the paradigm of the future 3. The Sigma Plan

fig. 15.

fig 15. Sigma Plan - interventions - http://sigmaplan.be/ uploads/2017/08/170817-sigmabrochure-2017-en-lr.pdf

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The Sigma Plan should be completed by 2030. We launch new projects every five years. We are already implementing a first series of projects, others are being prepared step by step in the meantime. On the following pages, you will get a better idea of what will happen in the various areas. [ The Sigma Plan protects Flanders against flooding ] It does this by: • raising and reinforcing the river levees; • giving the river more space in flood control areas; • reducing the pressure in extreme situations by giving back certain areas to the river. This is called depoldering. [ Relieving the pressure ]

The polder is literally given back to the river with the process of depoldering. How do we do this? We build a new levee further inland. Then we create breaches in the old levee, allowing the tides to flow in and out of the area. Tidal nature, with mudflats and marshes, develops in the depoldered area. At the same time, the water’s pressure on the levees is relieved, reducing the likelihood of floods inland.

[ From saltwater to freshwater ] Tidal nature is created when water flows in and out of an area twice a day. Under the influence of ebb and flow, the unique transition from freshwater to saltwater comes into play, giving rise to an interaction between water, sand, and silt. Here, the river carves out a network of mud flats and shoals, marshes, channels, and brooks. [ How does a flood control area work? ] We build a high ring levee inland, along the river.This creates a flood control area, that can absorb large amounts of water, along the river. The river’s water level is reduced, which in turn relieves the pressure on the levees. The tidal wave loses a lot of its power. And the risk of

floods or breaches is also much reduced. As soon as the water level in the river has sufficiently reduced, the water in the flood control area is drained through discharge sluices. A flood control area floods when a storm tide occurs in combination with an extreme northwesterly storm. The rest of the time the area has another function. Farmers let their livestock graze in some flood control areas. Valuable nature develops in others.

Text retrieved from - http://sigmaplan.be/ uploads/2017/08/170817-sigmabrochure-2017-en-lr.pdf

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CMR - the paradigm of the future 3. The Sigma Plan

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fig. 16.

fig 16. Sigma Plan - projects - http://sigmaplan.be/ uploads/2017/08/170817-sigmabrochure-2017-en-lr.pdf

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CMR - the paradigm of the future 4. Comparison conclusion - North sea backbone strategy

Scale

Objective

Action plan

Stakeholders

Delta Plan (Ruimte voor de river)

National

Sigma Plan National

Tidal force integration Reduce impact of SLR and protect urban into coastal protection settlements stategy

Reduce impact of SLR and preserve ecosystem and urbanity

Governmental land aquisition and set of coastal managed realignment and extraction technology interventions

Governmental land aquisition and set of coastal managed realignment and interventions

Central Government | Private |Public| Research

Central government | Private |Public| Research

Timeframe

Investment

Reversed risk

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75-100 yrs aprox 1billion

expected output 2019(short term)

indefinite (5 yrs rotation and project addition)

2.3 billion euros

994 million Euros for the works and 62 million Euros for the accompanying measures

fig. 17.

Together can become part of a consistent North Sea specific strategic approach for SLR, having as centered intervention typology Coastam Managed realignment (CMR)

fig 13. Comparison criteria - conclusion

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The Gamma plan

1. The Gamma Plan - potential national transferability

PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

No imminent SLR endangerment https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20040329005590/en/Hydropower-Greener-Fish-Friendly-Turbines-Voith-Siemens-Hydro

fig 1. National potential reflection

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GOVERNANC

PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

GOVERNANCE FUNDING

DAMAGE SCHEME

GOVERNMENTAL AGENTS

AGREEMENT

ASSOCIATION BRITISH INSU

NORTHUMBRIA £9M +133% £21M

NORTH WEST YORKSHIRE

£41M -10% £37M

£43M -30% £30M

ANGLIAN NORTHERN £37M -35% £24M

MIDLANDS £40M -13% £35M ANGLIAN CENTRAL

ANGLIAN EASTERN

£18M -17% £15M

£61M -28% £44M

LONDON SOUTHERN

WESSEX

£53M -23% £41M

£71M +7% £78M

£28M -32% £19M SOUTH WEST £15M % £15M

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20040329005590/en/Hydropower-Greener-Fish-Friendly-Turbines-Voith-Siemens-Hydro

fig. 18.

fig 18. Gamma plan replicability areas - information for SLR retrieved from - http://www.floodmap.net/

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The Gamma plan

1. The Gamma Plan - potential national transferability

PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

SLR high risk territories https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20040329005590/en/Hydropower-Greener-Fish-Friendly-Turbines-Voith-Siemens-Hydro

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GOVERNANC

PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

GOVERNANCE FUNDING

DAMAGE SCHEME

GOVERNMENTAL AGENTS

AGREEMENT

ASSOCIATION BRITISH INSU

NORTHUMBRIA £9M +133% £21M

NORTH WEST YORKSHIRE

£41M -10% £37M

£43M -30% £30M

ANGLIAN NORTHERN £37M -35% £24M

MIDLANDS £40M -13% £35M ANGLIAN CENTRAL

ANGLIAN EASTERN

£18M -17% £15M

£61M -28% £44M

LONDON SOUTHERN

WESSEX

£53M -23% £41M

£71M +7% £78M

£28M -32% £19M SOUTH WEST £15M % £15M

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20040329005590/en/Hydropower-Greener-Fish-Friendly-Turbines-Voith-Siemens-Hydro

fig. 18.

fig 18. Gamma plan replicability areas - information for SLR retrieved from - http://www.floodmap.net/

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There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures. William Shakespeare, â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Julius Caesarâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; (1599) act 4, sc. 3, l. 215

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