EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Retail Trade Analysis for Alexandria, MN CONTINUED STEADY GROWTH The Minnesota Department. of Revenue releases sales tax information each spring for the year that ended about 15 months earlier. The latest information indicates that Alexandria’s taxable retail and service sales increased 6.6 percent between 2016 and 2019 to an estimated total of $408 million.
The most notable shift between 2016 and 2019 was a significant increase in building materials, which was already the second largest category in community. Taxable building materials sales were five increased from $71.7 million in 2016 to nearly $86.9 million in 2019. Building materials remained the second largest category in 2019 after general merchandise, despite general merchandise having seen a $1 million decrease in taxable sales in the same time period. The second largest increase in dollar sales in the same time period was in the business category of auto parts and vehicles, which reached a total taxable sales of $34 million in 2019. Despite this increase, the parts and vehicles category was only forth in size. Besides the aforementioned building materials and general merchandise categories, the eating and drinking category, which includes bars and restaurants, was also a larger at $56.6 million in taxable sales. © 2021 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-625-8233. Printed on recycled and recyclable paper with at least 10 percent postconsumer waste material.
Comparisons with Competing Cities There are several ways to measure performance other than dollars of sales. Economists expect cities of larger populations to have more sales since their potential customer base is larger. A way to compensate for that in a retail trade analysis is to measure the pull factor, which compares the local taxable sales per capita to that of the state. A pull factor index higher than 1.0 usually indicates that businesses are pulling in customers from outside their community. A lower pull factor usually indicates residents are leaving the community to make purchases. Alexandria’s pull factor has remained relatively consistent from 2013 to 2019, having hovered around 3.0 after a steep decrease in 2009.
Comparing Alexandria’s Performance to Similar Minnesota Cities The following table provides information on retail sales by selected merchandise categories. "Expected sales" is a standard to which actual performance can be compared. In calculating expected sales, population, income, and typical "pulling power" characteristics are taken into account. The following table calculates pulling power using a Minnesota cities based on population + or - 20% of Alexandria’s so it includes Red Wing, Bemidji, and Grand Rapids. Expected sales can be used as a guideline in analyzing retail strength.
© 2021 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-625-8233. Printed on recycled and recyclable paper with at least 10 percent postconsumer waste material.
Selected Categories
Expected Sales (millions)
Actual Sales (millions)
Variance As % of Expected
Trade Area’s Estimated Customer Gain (or Loss)
Furniture Stores
$1.81
$11.65
+542%
74,114
Food, Groceries
$9.51
$20.54
+116%
15,866
Miscellaneous Retail
$10.62
$8.34
-21.4%
-2,932
Eating + Drinking Places
$28.20
$56.05
+98.7%
13,498
Total Taxable Retail & Service
$168.71
$408.26
+142.0%
19,414
THE BOTTOM LINE Alexandria has more than held its own over the past 20 years in terms of retail strength in a competitive retail landscape. With the exception of a string of years after the great recession, the city has consistently been over a pull factor of 3.0 since 1991. When calculating expected sales that considers performance of other Minnesota communities in its class size, Alexandria performs better than most, bringing in over 140% more in sales than expected. Building materials, general merchandise, and eating and drinking establishments are bringing large numbers of customers into the community. This net in-shopping positively impacts all categories of retail with all but one having sales surplus, that is, more sales than one would expect. Even the category with a leakage from expected sales calculations, miscellaneous sales, had a pull factor over 1. The full retail trade analysis report details how various retail and service categories have changed since 2003 so individual businesses can see how they performed compared to the whole community. The report is also useful for exploring expansion opportunities. Author: Ryan Pesch, University of Minnesota Extension, Community Economics
THE EXTENSION CENTER FOR COMMUNITY VITALITY makes a difference by engaging Minnesotans to strengthen the social, civic, economic and technological capacity of their communities. To read more, visit: www.extension.umn.edu/community
© 2021 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-625-8233. Printed on recycled and recyclable paper with at least 10 percent postconsumer waste material.
Alexandria Retail Trade Overview Total Taxable and Gross Retail Sales The table below presents gross and taxable retail and services sales for Alexandria from 2003 through 2019. Without inflation adjustments, taxable sales in Alexandria increased 26 percent from 2012 to 2019, while the number of firms rose 6.7 percent. Statewide, taxable sales increased 5.7 percent over the same time period and the number of firms rose 6.2 percent. The per capita sales and pull factor data in this table are based on taxable sales, the more verified sales measure. The table also presents sales data in constant 2019 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their value in 2019. For example, in 2008, taxable sales in Alexandria totaled $433.49 million, an amount worth $509.99 million in 2019 dollars. In constant dollars, gross sales grew 12.1 percent between 2012 and 2019. Constant dollar taxable sales increased 14.7 percent over the same time period. Current Dollars Taxable Sales ($millions)
Constant 2019 Dollars Taxable Sales Gross Sales* ($millions) ($millions)
Year
Estimated Population
Gross Sales* ($millions)
2003
10,165
$579.74
$313.82
$805.20
$435.86
513
$30,873
3.46
2004
10,231
$560.78
$281.27
$757.81
$380.09
509
$27,491
2.97
2005
10,618
$706.56
$373.56
$917.61
$485.14
492
$35,182
3.69
2006
10,852
$789.19
$395.84
$998.98
$501.07
499
$36,477
3.80
2007
11,743
$832.46
$426.32
$1,027.73
$526.32
526
$36,304
3.73
2008
11,814
$872.57
$433.49
$1,026.55
$509.99
594
$36,693
3.84
2009
11,854
$619.97
$287.35
$738.06
$342.08
589
$24,241
2.71
2010
11,070
$551.19
$245.06
$640.92
$284.95
525
$22,137
2.45
2011
12,920
$691.23
$301.94
$776.66
$339.26
571
$23,370
2.51
2012
13,008
$737.08
$323.91
$809.98
$355.94
578
$24,900
2.58
2013
13,045
$779.55
$342.20
$847.34
$371.96
586
$26,233
3.04
2014
13,182
$807.43
$352.74
$868.20
$379.29
570
$26,759
3.05
2015
13,340
$807.73
$368.25
$868.53
$395.97
574
$27,605
3.06
2016
13,575
$821.96
$382.87
$874.43
$407.30
592
$28,204
3.10
2017
13,673
$883.66
$397.47
$920.48
$414.03
640
$29,070
3.12
2018 2019
13,951 14,156
$876.97 $907.68
$400.94 $408.26
$894.86 $907.68
$409.12 $408.26
615 617
$28,739 $28,840
3.00 2.98
'12 to '19
8.8%
23.1%
26.0%
12.1%
14.7%
6.7%
15.8%
15.9%
3 yr Change '16 to '19
4.3%
10.4%
6.6%
3.8%
0.2%
4.2%
2.3%
-3.8%
Number Per Capita of Firms Sales
Pull Factor
7 yr Change
*Gross sales figures are self-reported by firms and not audited by the Dept. of Revenue for accuracy.
Alexandria: Retail/Service Sales in Constant Dollars Total Sales: Gross & Taxable $1,200.0
$Millions
$1,000.0 $800.0 $600.0 $400.0 $200.0 $0.0 Year Constant $ Gross Sales
Constant $ Taxable Sales
Alexandria Selected Components of Change*, 2016 to 2019 Taxable Sales 2016
Taxable Sales 2019
Vehicles & Parts
$28,320,378
$34,031,804
+$5,711,426
+20.17%
Furniture
$11,909,418
$11,558,169
-$351,249
-2.95%
$8,565,358
$9,294,998
+$729,640
+8.52%
Building Materials
$71,656,238
$86,914,306
+$15,258,068
+21.29%
Food, Groceries
$19,284,814
$21,150,131
+$1,865,317
+9.67%
Health, Personal Stores
$5,211,574
$5,067,424
-$144,150
-2.77%
Gas/Convenience Stores
$10,658,780
$11,890,112
+$1,231,332
+11.55%
Clothing
$2,840,663
$2,311,786
-$528,877
-18.62%
Leisure Goods
$7,145,871
$7,322,173
+$176,302
+2.47%
General Merchandise Stores
$95,514,701
$94,467,008
-$1,047,693
-1.10%
Miscellaneous Retail
$11,095,858
$7,605,480
-$3,490,378
-31.46%
Accommodations
$7,840,923
$8,787,151
+$946,228
+12.07%
Eating & Drinking
$53,505,858
$56,653,126
+$3,147,268
+5.88%
$382,865,345
$408,259,668
+$25,394,323
+6.63%
Selected Categories
Electronics
Total Retail and Services Sales
Dollar Change
Percent Change
* Figures not adjusted for inflation.
Taxable Sales Changes by Category (in Millions) 2016 to 2019 +$15.26
+$5.71
+$0.73
+$3.15
+$1.87
+$1.23 -$0.14
-$0.35
+$0.95
+$0.18 -$0.53
-$1.05 -$3.49
Parts
Furn.
Elec. Bldg.Mat Food
Health C-Store Clothing
Leis.
GenMer. Misc.
Hotel
Eat
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria Taxable Sales
Pull Factor
8.3% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $2404
40
40.0
35
35.0
30
30.0
25
25.0
20
20.0
15
15.0
10
10.0
5
Pull factor
Vehicles & Parts
#REF!
$ Millions
This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data
5.0
0
Stores in the Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers subsector retail motor vehicles and parts from fixed point-of-sale locations. This can include automobiles, campers, RV's, boats, out-board motors, sailboats, snowmobiles, motorcycles, and all terrain vehicles. Onroad vehicle sellers do not collect sales tax but rather Motor Vehicle Tax. Sales tax is collected on boats, snowmobiles, dirt bikes, ATVs, and parts.
0.0 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
2.8% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $816
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Pull factor
$ Millions
Furniture 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1.0
Stores in the Furniture and Home Furnishings subsector retail new furniture and home furnishings from fixed point-of-sale locations. This can include bed stores, office furniture, carpet stores, window treatments, lamps, framing shops, linens, and kitchenware.
0.0 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Electronics 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
35 $ Millions
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
2.3% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $657 Pull factor
40
Stores in the Electronics and Appliance subsector retail new electronics and appliances from point-of-sale locations. This can include household appliances, sewing machines, vacuum cleaners, computers, cameras, telephones, cell phones, televisions, and radios.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data Taxable Sales
21.3%
Building Materials
#REF! 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $6140
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Pull factor
$ Millions
Pull Factor
1.0
Stores in the Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers subsector retail new building material and garden equipment and supplies. This includes home improvement centers and stores that sell paint, wallpaper, ceramic tile, fencing, windows, roofing, siding, hardware, and plumbing.
0.0 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
25
3.0
20
2.5 2.0
15
1.5 10
1.0
5
5.2% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $1494
Pull factor
$ Millions
Groceries & Beverage Stores
0.5
0
Stores in the Food and Beverage Stores subsector usually retail food and beverages merchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations. This can include grocery stores, liquor stores, bakeries, candy shops, butcher stores, meat markets, and produce markets.
0.0 03 05
07 09
11
13 15
17 19
6
4.0
5
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
4 3 2 1 0 03 05
07 09 11
13 15 17 19
1.2% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $358
Pull factor
$ Millions
Health, Pharmacy, Optical
Stores in the Health and Personal Care Stores subsector retail health and personal care merchandise from fixed point-of-sale locations. This includes drug stores, health supplement stores, hearing aid stores, optical goods stores, cosmetic stores, and medical supply stores.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria Taxable Sales
This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data
Pull Factor
Gas/Convenience Stores 12
3.5
10
3.0 2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
4
1.0
2
2.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $840
Pull factor
4.0
$ Millions
#REF!14
0.5
0
0.0 03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
0.6% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $163 6.0
10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Pull factor
$ Millions
Clothing & Accessories
Stores in the Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores subsector retailing new clothing and clothing accessories. Besides clothing stores it includes shops that sell jewelry, shoes, luggage, handbags, wigs, ties, bridal gowns, furs, uniforms, T-shirts, baby clothing, swimsuits, and lingerie.
1.0 0.0 03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
1.8% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $517
Sporting Goods/Hobbies 3.0
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
Pull factor
$ Millions
Stores in the Gasoline Stations subsector group establishments retailing automotive fuels (e.g., gasoline, diesel fuel, gasohol) and automotive oils and retailing these products in combination with convenience store items. This includes truck stops, C stores, marine service stations, and ordinary gas stations that sell automotive supplies.
Stores in the Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores subsector are engaged in retailing and providing expertise on use of sporting equipment or other specific leisure activities, such as needlework and musical instruments. Newstands also fit in this subsector.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria Taxable Sales
This page looks at several merchandise categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data
Pull Factor
General Merchandise Stores
$ Millions
100 80 60 40 20 0 03 05
07 09 11 13
23.1% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $6673
Pull factor
9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
#REF! 120
15 17 19
1.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $537
14
3.5
12
3.0
10
2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
4
1.0
2
0.5
0
Pull factor
$ Millions
Miscellaneous & Previously Unreported
Establishments such as florists, used merchandise stores, and pet and pet supply stores as well as other store retailers. Also, if a community had fewer than 4 stores in a previous sector, it was included in this category. This may cause unrealistically high Pull Factors.
0.0 03
05 07
09 11
13 15
17 19
0.3% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $124 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 03
05
07 09
11 13
15 17
19
Pull factor
Non-Store Retail
$ Millions
Stores in the General Merchandise subsector retail new general merchandise and are unique in that they have the equipment and staff capable of retailing a large variety of goods from a single location. This includes department stores, superstores, dollar stores,and variety stores.
Mail-order houses, vending machine operators, home delivery sales, door-to-door sales, party plan sales, electronic shoppin, and sales through portable stands (except food). Establishments engage in direct sale (nonstore) of products, such as home heating oil dealers and newspaper delivery are included in this subsector. In the non-store retail, the pull factor had a dramatic jump from 2012 to 2013 because on-line sales to companies outside of Minnesota were removed from the total state sales in this category.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria This page looks at several merchandise or service categories to chart the multi-year trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data Taxable Sales
Pull Factor
Amusement
#REF!
2.5
7.0 6.0 4.0
1.5
3.0
1.0
2.0
Pull factor
2.0
5.0 $ Millions
1.2% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $354
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.0 03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
Accommodations
2.2% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $621 3.0
16.0 14.0 $ Millions
2.0
10.0 8.0
1.5
6.0
1.0
4.0
Pull factor
2.5
12.0
These busineeses provide provide lodging or shortterm accommodations for travelers, vacationers, and others. Included are hotels, motels, lodges, bed & breakfasts, campgrounds, fraternities, boarding houses, and dormitories.
0.5
2.0 0.0
0.0 03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
13.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $4002
60.0
3.0
50.0
2.5
40.0
2.0
30.0
1.5
20.0
1.0
10.0
0.5
0.0
0.0 03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
Pull factor
Eating & Drinking
$ Millions
Establishments include casinos, bowling lanes, water parks, amusement parks, arcades, bingo halls, golf courses, ski slopes, marinas, dance or fitness centers, recreational clubs, ice rinks, swimming pools, roller rinks, and the like.
These businesses sell food at full-service or limitedservice establishments. It includes cafeterias, bagel shops, ice cream parlors, snack bars, food service contractors, caterers, lunch wagons, and street vendors. It also includes bars, taverns, and nightclubs.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria
Taxable Sales
#REF!
Pull Factors
2.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $839
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Pull factor
Repair Businesses 14.0
$ Millions
This page looks at several categories to chart the multiyear trend in taxable sales and pull factor. NA=Suppressed Data
The Repair and Maintenance subsector restore machinery, equipment, and other products to working order. It does not include plumbers & electricitians.It does include repairs to autos, cameras, radio, television, computers, copiers, appliances, lawn mowers, specialized equipment, small engines, furnitures, shoes, guns, etc.
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
0.9% of Alexandria's taxable sales in 2019 Sales per capita are $272
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19
Pull factor
$ Millions
Personal Service Providers
Services performed include: personal care services; barber shops & beauty parlors; death care services; laundry and drycleaning services; and a wide range of other personal services, such as pet care (except veterinary) services, photofinishing services, temporary parking services, and dating services.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Alexandria from 2010 to 2019* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.
Pull Factors by NAICS Merchandise Category (1 of 2)
7 6
Pull Factor
5 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Vehicles & Parts 3.07 3.47 3.66 3.97 3.83 4.08 3.99 4.20 4.04 4.09
Furniture
Electronics
2.88 2.89 3.12 3.48 3.35 3.32 3.27 3.28 3.06 2.99
2.28 1.98 1.85 2.01 2.35 2.11 2.18 2.14 2.05 2.19
Building Materials 5.08 5.01 5.31 5.38 5.33 5.40 5.27 5.57 5.69 6.05
Food 1.97 1.69 1.82 1.88 1.93 2.03 2.05 2.04 2.01 1.99
Health & Personal 2.38 3.08 2.99 3.14 3.43 3.14 3.08 2.93 2.80 2.78
Gas/Conve n 2.27 1.95 2.30 2.96 3.26 3.30 3.47 3.53 3.27 3.21
Apparel 0.92 1.25 1.21 1.13 1.13 1.18 1.19 1.10 1.07 1.09
Leisure Goods 1.49 2.07 2.22 2.43 2.39 2.20 2.28 2.78 2.69 2.75
NAICS Category Descriptions Motor Vehicles & Parts: Establishments that sell new & used autos, boats, motorcycles, golf carts, RV's, campers, snowmobiles, trailers, tires, and parts. Furniture: Stores that sell furniture, beds, carpeting, window coverings, lamps, china, kitchenware, & woodburning stoves. Electronics: Establishments primarily engaged in retailing household-type appliances, sewing machines, cameras, computers, and other electronic goods. Building Materials: Establishments that sell lumber, hardware, paint, wallpaper, tile, hardwood floors, roofing, fencing, ceiling fans, lawn equipment, and garden centers. Food: Grocery stores, deli's, bakery, & butcher shops that sell food to be prepared at home. Liquor stores. Health & Personal: Pharmacies, food supplements, vision supplies, cosmetics, & hearing aid stores. Gas Stations/Convenience Store: Retailers that sell fuel along with convenience store items. Clothing: New clothing and accessories, jewelry, shoes, bridal shops, clock shops, and luggage stores. Leisure Goods: Sporting goods, books, music, hobby stores, fabric shops, and toy stores. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to how businesses are classified.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Alexandria The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Alexandria from 2010 to 2019* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.
Pull Factors by NAICS Merchandise Category (2 of 2) 8.00 7.00
Pull Factor
6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Gen. Merchandise 6.43 7.32 7.33 7.20 7.11 7.02 7.07 6.88 6.76 6.52
Misc. Store 3.08 2.78 2.70 2.96 2.90 2.89 2.66 2.53 2.13 1.88
Non-Store Retail 0.10 0.27 0.24 0.75 0.74 0.88 0.74 0.70 0.29 0.41
Amusement 1.89 1.60 1.51 1.59 1.51 1.61 1.44 1.09 0.92 1.10
Accommodations 2.53 1.26 1.54 1.63 2.74 2.19 1.43 1.44 1.47 1.45
Eating & Drinking 1.98 2.21 2.24 2.49 2.38 2.35 2.42 2.43 2.35 2.27
Repair 3.07 2.58 2.73 2.66 2.59 2.51 2.66 2.82 2.73 2.97
Personal Services 1.85 1.60 1.48 1.64 1.36 1.18 1.26 1.53 1.42 1.58
NAICS Category Descriptions General Merchandise: Establishments that sell a mixed line of goods. Examples are department stores, supercenters, and dollar stores. Miscellaneous Store Retailers: Stores not covered in other categories such as florists, office supplies, pets, antiques, tobacco, art, used merchandise, and trophies. (see Suppressed Data in Cautions section) Non-Store Retail: Retailers that do not use stores. This includes mail order, internet selling, bazaars, vending machines, fuel oil dealers, firewood dealers, door-to-door sales, and produce stands. Amusement: Establishments such as golf courses, bowling lanes, marinas, amusement parks, water parks, shooting ranges, pool halls, horseback riding, ballrooms, health club facilities, ski hills, and casinos. Lodging: Seasonal resorts, hotels, boarding houses, bed & breakfast, campgrounds, and RV parks. Eating & Drinking: Restaurants, donut shops, coffee house, cafeteria, caterers, taverns, and nightclubs, Repair: Businesses that return items to working order. Examples: cars, lawnmowers, small engines, knives, shoes, computers, furniture, and appliances. Personal Services: Barbers, beauty salons, tanning facilities, funeral homes, laundromats, dry cleaners, pet groomers, and kennels *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to how businesses are classified.
Comparison with Competing Centers Alexandria Pull Factors 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Fiscal Year
Alexandria Fergus Falls
Detroit Lakes Bemidji
Information about competing trade centers can provide a useful means of comparison when assessing a community's retail trade sector. Comparison towns were selected based on geographic proximity, relative size and availability of data. Some caution is warranted in the interpretation of these comparisons however, since retail sales data is provided for only a limited number of towns and cities.
Comparison with Competing Trade Centers, 2019
Town Alexandria Bemidji Detroit Lakes Fergus Falls
Per Capita Pull Factor (Taxable Gross Sales Taxable Sales Number of Taxable Sales) Sales Pop ($millions) ($millions) Firms 14,156 16,318 9,744 13,766
$907.68 $989.66 $573.46 $505.18
$408.26 $426.49 $230.11 $192.41
617 487 317 337
$28,840 $26,136 $23,616 $13,977
2.98 2.70 2.44 1.45
Rural Community Trade Area Analysis Alexandria The following tables provide information on retail sales by merchandise category. "Expected sales" is a standard to which actual performance is compared. In calculating expected sales, population and income characteristics, as well as the typical "pulling power" of similar rural communities are taken into account. Expected sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength. Deviations from these norms can be analyzed to first judge whether they should be considered relevant. If the differences appear to be significant (whether in dollar amounts or relatively with percentages), additional consideration is merited. Categories with undesirable performance may be further examined for potential corrective action. It is also important to determine whether or not the situation is relatively uncontrollable due to external or extenuating circumstances. In cases of favorable differences from expectations, the positive aspects could be identified and built upon.
Trade Area Analysis by Merchandise Category, 2019 Variance Between Actual & Expected
Merchandise Group
Expected Actual Sales Sales ($millions) ($millions)
In Dollars (millions)
As % of Expected
Trade Area Percent of Pop. Gain or Number Total Loss of Firms Sales
Vehicles & Parts
$13.69
$31.11
+$17.42
+127.2%
17,396
23
7.6%
Furniture Stores
$1.81
$11.65
+$9.84
+542.0%
74,114
10
2.9%
Electronics
$1.72
$9.19
+$7.47
+433.3%
59,238
13
2.3%
$31.59
$83.55
+$51.96
+164.5%
22,492
16
20.5%
Food, Groceries
$9.51
$20.54
+$11.03
+116.0%
15,866
11
5.0%
Health, Personal Stores
$1.72
$4.91
+$3.19
+185.3%
25,337
14
1.2%
Gas/Covenience Stores
$6.01
$11.24
+$5.23
+87.0%
11,896
14
2.8%
Clothing
$0.37
$2.26
+$1.89
+505.8%
69,162
25
0.6%
Leisure Goods
$1.37
$7.38
+$6.01
+437.9%
59,873
18
1.8%
General Merchandise Stores
$41.00
$98.45
+$57.45
+140.1%
19,162
10
24.1%
Miscellaneous Retail
$10.62
$8.34
-$2.28
-21.4%
-2,932
48
2.0%
Amusement & Recreation
$1.87
$4.12
+$2.25
+120.4%
16,458
8
1.0%
Accommodations
$3.76
$8.82
+$5.06
+134.7%
18,411
13
2.2%
$28.20
$56.05
+$27.84
+98.7%
13,498
64
13.7%
Repair, Maintenance
$3.61
$10.17
+$6.56
+181.8%
24,853
43
2.5%
Personal Services, Laundry
$0.88
$3.31
+$2.43
+277.6%
37,958
78
0.8%
$168.71
$408.26
+$239.55
+142.0%
19,414
Building Materials
Eating & Drinking Places
Total Taxable Retail & Service*
640
100.0%
*All retail and service categories are included in Total Sales, including some categories not shown. Therefore, the merchandise groups shown here generally will not sum to Total Sales.
Summary of Alexandria Retail Trade (Rural) The chart below depicts the percentage amount Alexandria's actual sales were above or below expected sales in 2019 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 15 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the performance in similar-sized Minnesota cities. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the Furniture Stores category, which has a 542 percent surplus. Overall, Alexandria had a retail sales surplus of 142.0 percent in 2019.
Percentage Above or Below Expected Sales, 2019 Vehicles & Parts
+127.2%
Furniture Stores
+542.0%
Electronics
+433.3%
Building Materials
+164.5%
Food, Groceries
+116.0%
Health, Personal Stores
+185.3%
Gas/Covenience Stores
+87.0%
Clothing
+505.8%
Leisure Goods
+437.9%
General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail
+140.1% -21.4%
Amusement & Recreation
+120.4%
Accommodations
+134.7%
Eating & Drinking Places
+98.7%
Repair, Maintenance
+181.8%
Personal Services, Laundry
+277.6%
Total Taxable Retail & Service*
+142.0% -100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
Alexandria Retail Trade Performance in Dollars (Rural) The chart below depicts the dollar amount Alexandria's actual sales were above or below expected sales in 2019 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 15 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the performance in similar-sized Minnesota cities. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the General Merchandise Stores category, which has a $57.5 million surplus. Overall, Alexandria had a retail sales surplus of $239.5 million in 2019.
Millions of $ Above or Below Expected Sales, 2019 Vehicles & Parts
+$17.42
Furniture Stores
+$9.84
Electronics
+$7.47
Building Materials
+$51.96
Food, Groceries
+$11.03
Health, Personal Stores
+$3.19
Gas/Covenience Stores
+$5.23
Clothing
+$1.89
Leisure Goods
+$6.01
General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail
+$57.45 -$2.28
Amusement & Recreation
+$2.25
Accommodations
+$5.06
Eating & Drinking Places
+$27.84
Repair, Maintenance
+$6.56
Personal Services, Laundry
+$2.43 -$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2019 Index of "Pulling Power" Cities Outside the 7 County Metro Area with Populations between 8,200 & 19,200 (Range: Population of Alexandria +/- ~ 40%.) (9 Cities) Pull Factors Vehicles, Furniture Parts Population Stores
Building Materials
General Merch.
1.65
0.07
0.41
0.00
1.16
1.04
0.85
0.15
0.26
2.92
14.66
0.79
0.00
1.05
1.09
0.44
Bemidji
16,310
0.66
0.39
0.00
1.79
1.04
1.13
2.01
0.02
0.53
1.84
0.85
0.31
1.14
0.66
0.90
0.22
0.83
Hutchinson
14,282
0.64
1.82
2.71
4.23
1.20
1.44
1.84
0.27
0.90
3.30
1.53
0.72
0.59
1.09
0.66
0.34
1.48
Misc.
Amusement
Repair, Maint.
1.27
Lodging
16,558
Clothing
Leisure Goods
Taxable $ Pull Factor
Red Wing
Food
Health, Gas & Personal Conven.
Personal Services
Eating & Drinking
City
Electronics
Fergus Falls
13,886
2.68
0.50
0.94
2.62
1.29
1.22
1.98
0.00
0.07
5.80
3.69
0.91
0.47
1.87
1.58
0.47
1.83
Alexandria
13,766
3.08
0.00
0.32
1.90
1.07
0.00
1.63
0.39
0.40
3.87
2.09
0.33
0.92
1.16
1.18
0.56
1.33
Grand Rapids
11,551
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.83
0.00
0.00
0.68
0.49
0.19
0.38
Hermantown
10,299
1.46
0.25
0.91
0.67
1.08
2.21
1.58
0.42
0.64
2.99
0.39
0.39
1.64
1.42
1.00
0.20
1.09
Detroit Lakes
9,744
3.12
1.95
0.00
7.99
0.00
1.44
2.21
1.05
1.16
4.37
5.79
0.17
2.32
1.99
2.73
0.74
2.42
Baxter
8,374
2.45
0.58
0.54
5.66
2.54
0.96
1.84
0.11
1.17
2.43
0.34
0.41
0.00
1.40
0.51
0.53
1.64
Unadjusted Average: *
1.78
0.62
0.65
2.76
1.04
1.05
1.72
0.27
0.57
3.06
3.91
0.45
0.79
1.26
1.13
0.41
* Raw averages; not adjusted for special circumstances. For example, in cities with a college student population that is large relative to overall population, these pull factors may understate the relative strength of the retail sector. While college students are counted as part of the city population, in general they spend less than other city residents in many retail categories. Most Pull Factor outliers were eliminated for calculating typical pull factors used in the expected sales formula.
1.36
Comparison of Pull Factors by Merchandise Category 2019 Index of "Pulling Power" Cities Outside the 7 County Metro Area with Populations between 8,200 & 19,200 (Range: Population of Alexandria +/- ~ 40%.) (9 Cities) Rankings City Red Wing Bemidji Hutchinson Fergus Falls Alexandria Grand Rapids Hermantown Detroit Lakes Baxter
Vehicles, Furniture Population Parts Stores #1 #5 #7 #2 #7 #5 #3 #8 #2 #4 #3 #4 #5 #2 #8 #6 #9 #8 #7 #6 #6 #8 #1 #1 #9 #4 #3
Electronics #5 #7 #1 #2 #6 #7 #3 #7 #4
Building Materials #8 #6 #3 #4 #5 #8 #7 #1 #2
Food #4 #7 #3 #2 #6 #8 #5 #8 #1
Health, Gasoline Personal Stations #6 #9 #5 #2 #2 #5 #4 #3 #8 #6 #8 #8 #1 #7 #3 #1 #7 #4
Clothing #5 #7 #4 #8 #3 #8 #2 #1 #6
Leisure Goods #7 #5 #3 #8 #6 #9 #4 #2 #1
General Merch. #6 #8 #4 #1 #3 #9 #5 #2 #7
Misc. #1 #7 #6 #4 #5 #2 #8 #3 #9
Amusement #2 #7 #3 #1 #6 #9 #5 #8 #4
Above are all communities in the population range listed in the title with data available by merchandise category. Adjustments for special circumstances may be necessary for accurate comparisons.
Lodging #7 #3 #5 #6 #4 #7 #2 #1 #7
Eating & Drinking #7 #9 #6 #2 #5 #8 #3 #1 #4
Repair, Maint. #4 #6 #7 #2 #3 #9 #5 #1 #8
Personal Services #5 #7 #6 #4 #2 #9 #8 #1 #3
Taxable $ Pull Factor #6 #8 #4 #2 #5 #9 #7 #1 #3
Alexandria & Douglas County Comparison, 2019 It is important to review the retail performance for the whole county and not just the city in isolation. For example, it is common for county seat towns to have above-average retail performance, while the county overall has a leakage of sales. This is usually because the county seat city doesn't have the critical mass of retail to attract the purchases of everyone in the county. By analyzing county data, city business people can develop strategies to recapture some of the sales being lost to other cities. For counties that have a local option sales tax, the analysis of county sales is extremely important, since lost sales are lost tax dollars. A thorough analysis of county sales can help county officials develop more meaningful economic development plans aimed at recapturing the lost sales. Share of County Sales
The table below shows retail sales and number of firms by merchandise category for Alexandria and Douglas County in 2019. Alexandria accounted for 52 percent of the county's firms and 80 percent of the county's sales.
20% 80%
Alexandria
Rest of Douglas County
Sales by Merchandise Category, Alexandria & Douglas County, 2019 Alexandria
Merchandise Category
Douglas County
Taxable Sales Number of ($millions) Firms
City's Share of County Total
Taxable Sales Number of ($millions) Firms
Sales
Firms
Vehicles & Parts
$34.03
22
$38.04
34
89.5%
64.7%
Furniture Stores
$11.56
12
$15.90
21
72.7%
57.1%
$9.29
12
$9.19
14
101.1%
85.7%
Building Materials
$86.91
17
$91.20
25
95.3%
68.0%
Food, Groceries
$21.15
11
$27.84
33
76.0%
33.3%
Health, Personal Stores
$5.07
18
$5.37
23
94.4%
78.3%
Gas/Convenience Stores
$11.89
15
$16.26
25
73.1%
60.0%
Clothing
$2.31
23
$2.31
26
100.1%
88.5%
Leisure Goods
$7.32
16
$8.78
35
83.4%
45.7%
General Merchandise
$94.47
7
$101.23
12
93.3%
58.3%
Miscellaneous Retail
$7.61
46
$9.93
89
76.6%
51.7%
Non-Store Retailers
$1.76
22
$2.86
58
61.4%
37.9%
Amusement & Recreation
$5.02
8
$8.79
22
57.1%
36.4%
Accommodations
$8.79
15
$23.78
53
37.0%
28.3%
Eating & Drinking Places
$56.65
60
$70.99
95
79.8%
63.2%
Repair, Maintenance Personal Service, Laundry
$11.88
41
$3.84
69
$18.50 $4.80
101 116
64.2% 80.1%
40.6% 59.5%
$504.20
1,180
79.5%
52.1%
Electronics
Total Sales
$400.94
615
Douglas County Retail Trade Overview Total Taxable and Gross Retail Sales The table below presents gross and taxable retail and services sales for Douglas County from 2004 through 2019. Without inflation adjustments, taxable sales in Douglas County increased 17.3 percent from 2012 to 2019, while the number of firms rose 3 percent. Statewide, taxable sales increased 5.7 percent over the same time period and the number of firms rose 6.2 percent. The per capita sales and pull factor data in this table are based on taxable sales, the more verified sales measure. The table also presents sales data in constant 2019 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their value in 2019. For example, in 2008, taxable sales in Douglas County totaled $508.83 million, an amount worth $598.63 million in 2019 dollars. In constant dollars, gross sales grew 2.6 percent between 2012 and 2019. Constant dollar taxable sales increased 0.4 percent over the same time period. Current Dollars
Constant 2019 Dollars
Year
Estimated Population
2004
34,628
$832.65
$457.05
$1,125.20
$617.64
1,176
$13,199
1.43
2005
35,138
$895.47
$473.91
$1,162.95
$615.47
1,177
$13,487
1.42
2006
35,467
$960.59
$481.42
$1,215.93
$609.39
1,155
$13,574
1.41
2007
36,075
$1,017.58
$511.73
$1,256.27
$631.77
1,201
$14,185
1.46
2008
36,258
$1,062.87
$508.83
$1,250.44
$598.63
1,237
$14,034
1.47
2009
36,390
$904.17
$463.56
$1,076.39
$551.85
1,210
$12,739
1.42
2010
35,988
$842.68
$393.76
$979.86
$457.86
1,187
$10,941
1.21
2011
36,240
$920.71
$403.56
$1,034.51
$453.44
1,175
$11,136
1.19
2012
36,412
$984.48
$429.96
$1,081.84
$472.49
1,146
$11,808
1.22
2013
36,529
$1,051.28
$453.87
$1,142.70
$493.33
1,211
$12,425
1.44
2014
36,789
$1,075.12
$440.01
$1,156.04
$473.13
1,174
$11,960
1.36
2015
37,103
$1,098.82
$473.35
$1,181.53
$508.98
1,163
$12,758
1.41
2016
37,467
$1,103.92
$471.99
$1,174.38
$502.12
1,185
$12,598
1.39
2017
37,654
$1,169.10
$487.48
$1,217.81
$507.79
1,211
$12,946
1.39
2018
38,041
$1,174.12
$491.99
$1,198.09
$502.03
1,185
$12,933
1.35
2019
38,220
$1,204.85
$504.20
$1,204.85
$504.20
1,180
$13,192
1.36
5.0%
22.4%
17.3%
11.4%
6.7%
3.0%
11.7%
11.8%
2.0%
9.1%
6.8%
2.6%
0.4%
-0.4%
4.7%
-1.5%
7 yr Change '12 to '19 3 yr Change '16 to '19
Gross Sales* Taxable Sales ($millions) ($millions)
Gross Sales* Taxable Sales Number Per Capita ($millions) ($millions) of Firms Sales
*Gross sales figures are self-reported by firms and not audited by the Dept. of Revenue for accuracy.
Douglas County: Retail/Service Sales in Constant Dollars $Millions
Total Sales: Gross & Taxable
$1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Year Constant $ Gross Sales
Constant $ Taxable Sales
Pull Factor
Douglas County Selected Components of Change*, 2016 to 2019 Taxable Sales 2016
Category
Taxable Sales 2019
Dollar Change
Percent Change
Vehicles & Parts
$35,627,389
$38,044,339
+$2,416,950
+6.78%
Furniture
$15,984,750
$15,898,776
-$85,974
-0.54%
$8,628,580
$9,191,333
+$562,753
+6.52%
Building Materials
$79,054,554
$91,204,093
+$12,149,539
+15.37%
Food, Groceries
$26,275,695
$27,841,226
+$1,565,531
+5.96%
Health, Personal Stores
$6,734,463
$5,366,691
-$1,367,772
-20.31%
Gas/Convenience Store
$15,429,078
$16,255,179
+$826,101
+5.35%
The table also presents sales data
$2,858,103
$2,309,408
-$548,695
-19.20%
Leisure Goods
$8,627,073
$8,777,532
+$150,459
+1.74%
General Merchandise Stores
$97,765,956
$101,230,113
+$3,464,157
+3.54%
Miscellaneous Retail
$12,621,923
$9,930,856
-$2,691,067
-21.32%
Accommodations
$25,576,545
$23,776,401
-$1,800,144
-7.04%
Eating & Drinking Places
$68,970,758
$70,990,612
+$2,019,854
+2.93%
$471,992,254
$504,198,482
+$32,206,228
+6.82%
Electronics
Total Retail and Services Sales * Figures not adjusted for inflation.
Dollar Changes by Category (in Millions) 2016 - 2019 +$12.15
+$3.46 +$2.42
+$2.02
+$1.57
+$0.56
+$0.83
-$0.09 -$1.37
+$0.15 -$0.55 -$2.69
Parts
Furn.
Elect.
Bldg.
Food
Health C-Store Clothes
Leis.
GenMer.
Misc.
-$1.80
Accom.
Eat
Pull Factors By Merchandise Category Douglas County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Douglas County from 2010 to 2019* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.
Pull Factors by NAICS Merchandise Category (1of 2)
#REF!
2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Vehicles & Parts 1.56 1.54 1.65 1.75 1.75 1.84 1.82 1.89 1.81 1.69
Furniture
Electronics
1.93 1.52 1.47 1.72 1.71 1.58 1.59 1.59 1.53 1.53
0.72 0.72 0.67 0.73 0.85 0.77 0.79 0.78 0.75 0.80
Building Materials 1.74 1.92 2.06 2.08 2.10 2.14 2.11 2.24 2.28 2.35
Food 0.91 0.90 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 0.97
Health & Personal 1.30 1.33 1.37 1.51 1.52 1.43 1.44 1.31 1.12 1.09
Gas & Conven. 1.43 1.47 1.67 1.95 1.93 1.76 1.82 1.87 1.74 1.63
Clothing 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40
Leisure Goods 0.66 0.83 0.89 0.98 0.98 0.96 1.00 1.12 1.18 1.22
NAICS Category Descriptions Motor Vehicles & Parts: Establishments that sell new & used autos, boats, motorcycles, golf carts, RV's, campers, snowmobiles, trailers, tires, and parts. Furniture: Stores that sell furniture, beds, carpeting, window coverings, lamps, china, kitchenware, & woodburning stoves. Electronics: Establishments primarily engaged in retailing household-type appliances, sewing machines, cameras, computers, and other electronic goods. Building Materials: Establishments that sell lumber, hardware, paint, wallpaper, tile, hardwood floors, roofing, fencing, ceiling fans, lawn equipment, and garden centers. Food: Grocery stores, deli's, bakery, & butcher shops that sell food to be prepared at home. Liquor stores. Health & Personal: Pharmacies, food supplements, vision supplies, cosmetics, & hearing aid stores. Gas and Convenience Store: Retailers that sell fuel along with convenience store items. Clothing: New clothing and accessories, jewelry, shoes, bridal shops, clock shops, and luggage stores. Leisure Goods: Sporting goods, books, music, hobby stores, fabric shops, and toy stores. *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS.
Recent Trends By Merchandise Category Douglas County The following tables and charts depict pull factors in Douglas County from 2010 to 2019* by merchandise category. Pull factors are a measure of trade area size that provide a useful measure of changes over time because they account for changes in population and state-wide industry trends.
Pull Factor by NAICS Merchandise Catagory (2 of 2) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Gen. Merch.
Misc. Store
2.71 2.69 2.69 2.64 2.60 2.57 2.62 2.56 2.55 2.59
1.12 1.12 1.11 1.21 1.19 1.17 1.10 1.12 0.93 0.91
Non-Store Retail 0.20 0.20 0.18 0.68 0.61 0.79 0.77 0.58 0.26 0.25
Amusem't
Lodging
0.91 0.86 0.83 0.87 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.67 0.61 0.71
1.92 1.85 2.10 2.10 2.01 1.78 1.68 1.50 1.45 1.45
Eating & Drinking 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.24 1.20 1.18 1.13 1.08 1.07 1.06
Repair 1.53 1.55 1.59 1.58 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.63 1.61 1.71
Personal Services 0.72 0.71 0.66 0.76 0.66 0.61 0.58 0.73 0.66 0.73
NAICS Category Descriptions General Merchandise: Establishments that sell a mixed line of goods. Examples are department stores, supercenters, and dollar stores. Miscellaneous Store Retailers: Stores not covered in other categories such as florists, office supplies, pets, antiques, tobacco, art, used merchandise, and trophies. Non-Store Retail: Retailers that do not use stores. This includes mail order, internet selling, bazaars, vending machines, fuel oil dealers, firewood dealers, door-to-door sales, and produce stands. Amusement: Establishments such as golf courses, bowling lanes, marinas, amusement parks, water parks, shooting ranges, pool halls, horseback riding, ballrooms, health club facilities, ski hills, and casinos. Lodging: Seasonal resorts, hotels, boarding houses, bed & breakfast, campgrounds, and RV parks. Eating & Drinking: Restaurants, donut shops, coffee house, cafeteria, caterers, taverns, and nightclubs, Repair: Businesses that return equipment to working order. Examples: cars, lawnmowers, small engines, knives, shoes, computers, furniture, and appliances. Personal Services: Barbers, beauty salons, tanning facilities, funeral homes, laundromats, dry cleaners, pet groomers, and kennels *Caution should be used when comparing pull factors before 2003 to those in later years due to the switch from SIC to NAICS.
Comparison with Neighboring Counties Douglas County Pull Factors 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 90
93
96
99
02
05
08
11
14
17
Fiscal Year
Douglas County Otter Tail County Stearns County
Grant County Pope County Todd County
Comparison with Neighboring Counties, 2019
Town Douglas County Grant County Otter Tail County Pope County Stearns County Todd County
Pull Per Capita Factor Taxable Sales Number of Taxable (Taxable Gross Sales Sales) Sales Firms Population ($millions) ($millions) 38,220
$1,204.85
$504.20
1,180
$13,192
1.36
5,967
$91.78
$27.20
153
$4,558
0.47
58,734
$1,091.23
$459.97
1,498
$7,831
0.81
11,139
$182.05
$63.10
263
$5,664
0.59
160,211
$4,753.23
$1,622.22
3,559
$10,126
1.05
24,665
$206.13
$77.57
473
$3,145
0.33
Trade Area Analysis of Retail Sales Douglas County The following tables provide information on retail sales by merchandise category. "Potential sales" is a standard to which actual performance is compared. In calculating potential sales, population and income characteristics are taken into account. Potential sales can be used as a guideline or "par value" in analyzing retail strength. Deviations from these norms can be analyzed to first judge whether they should be considered relevant. If the differences appear to be significant (whether in dollar amounts or relatively with percentages), additional consideration is merited. Categories with undesirable performance may be further examined for potential corrective action. It is also important to determine whether or not the situation is relatively uncontrollable due to external or extenuating circumstances. In cases of favorable differences from expectations, the positive aspects should be identified and built upon.
Trade Area Analysis by Merchandise Category, 2019 Variance Between Actual & Potential Potential Sales ($millions)
Actual Sales ($millions)
In Dollars (millions)
As % of Potential
Trade Area Pop. Gain or Loss
Number of Firms
Percent of Total Sales
Vehicles & Parts
$20.51
$38.04
+$17.53
+85.5%
32,193
34
7.7%
Furniture Stores
$9.51
$15.90
+$6.39
+67.1%
25,282
21
3.2%
Electronics
$10.45
$9.19
-$1.26
-12.0%
-4,536
14
1.9%
Building Materials
$35.37
$91.20
+$55.84
+157.9%
59,448
25
18.5%
Food, Groceries
$26.24
$27.84
+$1.60
+6.1%
2,303
33
5.7%
Health, Personal Stores
$4.50
$5.37
+$0.87
+19.4%
7,288
23
1.1%
Gas/Convenience Store
$9.12
$16.26
+$7.14
+78.2%
29,458
25
3.3%
Clothing
$5.23
$2.31
-$2.92
-55.8%
-21,014
26
0.5%
Leisure Goods
$6.55
$8.78
+$2.22
+33.9%
12,782
35
1.8%
$35.67
$101.23
+$65.56
+183.8%
69,201
12
20.6%
$9.96
$9.93
-$0.03
-0.3%
-106
89
2.0%
Amusement & Recreation
$11.28
$8.79
-$2.49
-22.1%
-8,313
22
1.8%
Accommodations
$14.95
$23.78
+$8.83
+59.0%
22,233
53
4.8%
Eating & Drinking Places
$61.40
$70.99
+$9.59
+15.6%
5,881
95
14.4%
Repair, Maintenance
$9.87
$18.50
+$8.63
+87.5%
32,947
101
3.8%
Personal Services, Laundry
$5.99
$4.80
-$1.19
-19.9%
-7,494
116
1.0%
$337.09
$491.99
+$154.90
+46.0%
17,303
Merchandise Group
General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail
Total Taxable Retail & Service*
1,185
100.0%
*All retail and service categories are included in Total Sales, including some categories not shown. Therefore, the merchandise groups shown here generally will not sum to Total Sales.
Douglas County Retail Trade Performance in Percentages The chart below depicts the percentage amount Douglas County's actual sales were above or below potential sales in 2019 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 11 of the categories were above what would be expected based on the county's population and income characteristics as well as statewide spending patterns. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the General Merchandise Stores category, which has a 183.8 percent surplus. Overall, Douglas County had a retail sales surplus of 46 percent.
Percentage Above or Below Potential Sales, 2019
Vehicles & Parts
+85.5%
Furniture Stores
+67.1%
Electronics
-12.0%
Building Materials
+157.9%
Food, Groceries
+6.1%
Health, Personal Stores
+19.4%
Gas/Convenience Store Clothing
+78.2% -55.8%
Leisure Goods
+33.9%
General Merchandise Stores
+183.8%
Miscellaneous Retail
-0.3%
Amusement & Recreation
-22.1%
Accommodations
+59.0%
Eating & Drinking Places
+15.6%
Repair, Maintenance
+87.5%
Personal Services, Laundry
-19.9%
Total Taxable Retail & Service*
+46.0% -100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Douglas County Retail Trade Performance in Dollars The chart below depicts the dollar amount Douglas County's actual sales were above or below potential sales in 2019 by merchandise group. Of the 16 merchandise categories with reported data, sales in 11 of the categories were above the calculated potential. The strongest merchandise group by this standard is the General Merchandise Stores category, which has a $65.6 million surplus. Overall, Douglas County had a retail sales surplus of $154.9 million in 2019.
Millions of $ Above or Below Potential Sales, 2019 Vehicles & Parts
+$17.53
Furniture Stores
+$6.39
Electronics
-$1.26
Building Materials
+$55.84
Food, Groceries
+$1.60
Health, Personal Stores
+$0.87
Gas/Convenience Store
+$7.14
Clothing
-$2.92
Leisure Goods
+$2.22
General Merchandise Stores
+$65.56
Miscellaneous Retail
-$0.03
Amusement & Recreation
-$2.49
Accommodations
+$8.83
Eating & Drinking Places
+$9.59
Repair, Maintenance
+$8.63
Personal Services, Laundry
-$1.19 -$20
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
Douglas County Retail Trade Surplus or Leakage County Surplus or Leakage as a Percent of Potential 90% 80% 70% 60% #REF!
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Population Index of Year Estimate Income 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
34,117 34,628 35,138 35,467 36,075 36,258 36,390 35,988 36,240 36,412 36,529 36,789 37,103 37,467 37,654 38,041 38,220
0.82 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.79 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.88 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.91
Potential Sales (in millions) $248.5 $262.0 $270.1 $268.1 $276.6 $293.0 $276.7 $276.6 $284.7 $307.3 $281.3 $284.1 $308.5 $316.6 $325.0 $340.3 $337.1
Actual Surplus or Surplus or Trade Area Sales Leakage Leakage as Population (in millions) (in millions) % of Potential Gain or Loss $404.1 $457.1 $473.9 $481.4 $511.7 $508.8 $463.6 $393.8 $403.6 $430.0 $453.9 $440.0 $473.4 $472.0 $487.5 $492.0 $504.2
$155.6 $195.1 $203.8 $213.3 $235.1 $215.9 $186.8 $117.2 $118.9 $122.7 $172.6 $156.0 $164.8 $155.4 $162.5 $151.7 $167.1
+62.6% +74.5% +75.5% +79.6% +85.0% +73.7% +67.5% +42.4% +41.8% +39.9% +61.3% +54.9% +53.4% +49.1% +50.0% +44.6% +49.6%
+21,369 +25,789 +26,523 +28,219 +30,669 +26,715 +24,573 +15,248 +15,139 +14,538 +22,410 +20,199 +19,818 +18,391 +18,820 +16,953 +18,947
Compare the Community to the Region Alexandria and Douglas County On other pages of this report we compared communities using a combination of retail sectors and service sectors. The information on this page only includes businesses in retail trade and does not include service sectors. The retail trade sectors include the following: building materials, motor vehicles & parts, clothing, food stores, electronics, convenience stores, leisure goods, health stores, furniture, general merchandise, non-store retail, and miscellaneous stores.
2019 Retail Sales per capita Region 1
$
Douglas
Region County 2 Region Alexandria
$
3,467 $8,606
5,321
3
$
5,065
Region 4
$
4,867
Region 5 State Region
6E
$
6,038
$5,267 $
4,957
$
3,095
$
3,799
Region 6W Region 7E
Region 11
Region 7W
Region 10 Region
8
Region 9
$5,673
$
5,227
$4,602 $
4,133
$
4,286
$
4,602
$
5,673
Region 9
$4,286
Region 8
$4,133
Region 10 Region 11
Region 7W
$5,227
State
Region 7E
Alexandria
Region 6W Douglas
5267
$3,799
20,724
$3,095 County
Region 6E Region 5
8,606
$4,957 $6,038
Region 4
$4,867
Region 3
$5,065
Region 2
$5,321
Region 1 $1,000
$20,724
$3,467 $6,000
$11,000
$16,000
$21,000
$26,000
State of Minnesota Per Capita Taxable Retail Sales & Threshold Levels for Selected Goods and Services 2019 Threshold level refers to the number of people per business, which can be used as a general guide for determining the "critical mass" necessary to support a business. These are broad averages for the state as a whole and do not reflect differences in income, tourism, agglomeration, establishment, etc. Further, the business counts are based on the number of sales tax returns filed and are converted to "full-time equivalents." Multiplying people per business by sales per capita yields average sales per firm. In addition to state averages, averages for the non-metropolitan regions were calculated by excluding the seven county Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan region.
Business Activity / Store Type NAICS
People Per Business State
Non-Metro
Sales Per Capita State
Non-Metro
Alexandria
The table also presents sales data in constant 2019 dollars. These figures have been adjusted for inflation to reflect their val 441 Vehicles, Parts 2,075 1,456 $588.03 $596.57 $2,404.06 442 Furniture Stores 3,667 3,496 $272.72 $166.14 $816.49 443 Electronics 4,090 4,751 $299.62 $130.31 $656.61 444 Building Materials 3,082 1,987 $1,014.00 $1,159.81 $6,139.75 445 Food and Beverage Stores 1,702 1,479 $752.23 $603.28 $1,494.08 446 Health, Personal Stores 2,990 3,632 $128.92 $80.64 $357.97 447 Gas/Conveniene Stores 2,507 1,994 $261.48 $339.31 $839.93 448 Clothing & Accessory Stores 1,759 2,057 $149.83 $80.23 $163.31 451 Leisure Goods 1,995 1,615 $187.88 $149.58 $517.25 452 General Merchandise 5,255 3,913 $1,022.75 $1,094.23 $6,673.28 453 Miscellaneous Merchandise 599 457 $285.53 $266.85 $537.26 454 Non-store Retail 970 836 $304.20 $94.75 $123.99 Retail Total $5,267.20 $4,761.70 $20,723.97 INFORMATION 511 Publishing Industry 512 Movie & Recording Industry 515 Broadcasting 516 Info -Internet Publ/Brcst 517 Telecommunications 518 Internet Service 519 Other Information Services
10,500 10,903 56,241
20,062 40,123 631,943 11,087 61,653 7,707
$4.16 $39.93 $39.22 $282.91 $282.91 $15.23 $49.39
$0.51 $16.72 NA NA $150.49 $0.60 $39.52
8,945 16,756 6,590
FINANCE AND INSURANCE 522 Credit Intermediation 523 Securities, Commodities 524 Insurance Carriers 525 Funds, Trusts
9,436 17,696 11,008 149,483
8,687 64,815 23,624 NA
$23.94 $1.75 $0.46 $0.31
$5.04 $0.03 $0.19 NA
REAL ESTATE AND RENTAL AND LEASING 531 Real Estate 532 Rental, Leasing Services 533 Lessors Nonfinancial Assets
1,999 3,764 258,197
2,313 3,611
$44.28 $172.53 $0.20
$37.27 $71.48
731 126,389
$186.93 $11.62
$89.84 $9.51
ADMINISTRATIVE & SUPPORT; WASTE MGMT & REMEDIATION SVCS 561 Admin, Support Services 562 573 562 Waste Mgmt, Remediation 13,429 13,664
$186.93 $11.62
$177.19 $3.47
4,672 1,237 114,899 9,685 18,185
$18.26 $22.50 $14.58 $3.14 $3.39
$15.23 $18.83 $6.90 $2.46 $3.16
1,804 30,215 2,373
2,302 64,815 1,940
$86.73 $6.44 $323.29
$14.20 $0.66 $142.52
$354.36
2,248 479
1,237 477
$428.62 $1,760.41
$394.41 $1,276.71
$620.74 $4,002.06
715 633 2,678 78,894 8,232
501 572 2,183
$282.84 $171.83 $34.43 $0.34 $50.70 $9,664.57
$302.91 $59.76 $35.99 NA $61.60 $7,548.66
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNICAL SERVICES 541 Prof, Scientific, Technical Services 497 551 Mgmt Of Companies 27,982
EDUCATIONAL SVCS; HEALTH & SOCIAL ASSISTANCE 611 Educational Services 3,942 621 Health -Ambulatory Care 1,005 622 Health -Hospitals 37,869 623 Health -Nursing,Residential Care 9,177 624 Health -Social Assistance 10,347 ARTS, ENTERTAINMENT & RECREATION 711 Performing Art, Spectator Sports 712 Museums, Historical Sites 713 Amusement, Gambling, Recr ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES 721 Accommodation 722 Food Services, Drinking Places OTHER SERVICES 811 Repair, Maintenance 812 Personal, Laundry Service 813 Religious, Civic, Professional Orgs 814 Private Households 921 Exec., Legisla., Other Govt TOTAL RETAIL AND SERVICES
4,880
$839.20 $271.53
$1,500
Minnesota Taxable Sales per Capita, 2003 to 2019 Adjusted for Inflation
$1,300
$1,100
Vehicles & Parts Furniture Electronics
$900
Building Materials Food Health & Personal Gas Stations Clothing Leisure Goods Gen. Merchandise
$700
Misc. Store
$500
$300
$100
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019