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AGRI-FOOD Food security in SA people, plants and planet
FOOD SECURITY IN SOUTH AFRICA PEOPLE, PLANTS AND PLANET
Our country is grappling with the challenge of how to enhance the resilience of food systems to deal with sudden shocks like the pandemic and ongoing stresses like climate change. Meanwhile, hunger persists despite high agricultural productivity that should support every citizen’s nutritional needs.
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THE CREAM OF THE CROP: Agriculture economy
BY MELISSA MOORE, FUTUREGROWTH ASSET MANAGEMENT
South Africa has a highly diversified, market-oriented agricultural sector that extends across various product ranges. Overall agricultural GDP growth is 13.1% year-on-year (relative to a 7% economic contraction for the country as a whole). This outperformance is underpinned by high levels of agricultural output following favourable production conditions; high commodity prices; strong export demand and a favourable rand exchange rate.
FUNDAMENTAL FACETS
1. VOLATILITY. Instability influenced by climate and social change. • Variable weather conditions and climate change cause a fluctuation in yields, which impacts the local and global supply dynamics. This creates volatility in volumes and crop prices. • Geopolitical influences and government actions: o Global supply and demand pressures emerge when governments take actions to subsidise production or when they ban exports due to concerns about domestic supplies. The US-China trade tensions were a source of volatility for certain agricultural commodities. o Locally, policy uncertainty around land expropriation has had an impact on the ability to access capital investment in the sector. o Changing consumer preferences. 2. COMPLEXITY. Agriculture is not homogenous. There are different crops and food types, each with their unique and fragmented
supply chains. There is diversity within each crop, in terms of how, where and by who it is produced. The complexity is intensified by environmental factors that influence regional and yearly production. 3. SCRUTINY. Role players in the agriculture and food value chain are under pressure to improve the traceability of the food we eat.
Notwithstanding these complexities, agriculture is widely anticipated to be a vital driver of economic growth worldwide. Within a troubled global economy, the agri-food value chain sectors remain a strong outlier, driven by population growth, urbanisation and the rise of the middle class.
Agriculture that prioritises maximum productivity by exploiting natural resources will prevent us from meeting our growing demand for food and fibre on a sustainable basis.
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[ECO]NOMIC THOUGHT
greeneconomy/the upshot
Covid-19 and the Food Safety/Environment Dilemma
Tetra Pak Index 2020
Covid-19 is the number one concern for consumers worldwide, evidenced in recent global research. Against this backdrop, economic worries have seen a sharp upturn, reflecting widespread uncertainty about the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Food safety has quickly moved up the list of consumer priorities and is now seen as a major issue for society. Consumers believe that improving food safety is not only the responsibility of manufacturers, it needs to be their priority. Consumers are looking for transparency and reassurance that this priority is being addressed. Many want to know everything they can about a product’s provenance and production process – highlighting a communication opportunity for brands.
Concern for the environment remains strikingly powerful. More than two-thirds of consumers believe that we must change our habits quickly to mitigate further environmental impact. In this context, sustainable packaging remains key, rated a top expectation from manufacturers. [Excerpt from foreword]
The changing interplay between food safety and environment Food waste is rising up the agenda Sustainable packaging matters
Convergence is on the increase08 19 30 35 39 Factors influencing the future of packaging
EXPORTS ON THE UP
The South African agricultural sector remains a net exporter, with exportable volumes of various commodities growing annually. In 2020, South Africa’s agricultural exports hit $10.2-billion, a 3% increase from the prior year and the second largest level on record. Simultaneously, agricultural imports fell 8%, leading to a 26% annual increase in the agricultural trade surplus, which widened to $4.3-billion in 2020.
Citrus, as a sub-sector, experienced a notable increase in demand due to the pandemic-related demand for vitamin C. Citrus exports hit a record high in 2020, with South Africa cementing its position as the secondlargest exporter of fresh citrus in the world, after Spain. This follows a period of citrus production growth in response to a spike in global demand and the attractive investment returns and profit margins – expected to be sustained beyond 2021.
THE MOMENTUM CONTINUES
Higher yields expected
• Favourable weather has resulted in increased summer crop plantings.
The country could export an estimated 2.8-million tons of maize in 2021/2022, the largest volume since 1994/1995. • Wine grape production is expected to be larger than in 2020. • The South African citrus industry should break all previous export season records with an estimated 158.7-million cartons in 2021, up from 146-million cartons in 2020.
The high yields for the sector should curtail food and overall consumer inflation – and enhance the sector’s contribution to GDP.
The logistics industry
The anticipated growth in agricultural exports will place pressure on infrastructure, from handling facilities to transport and the shipping ports. Industry players are concerned over the country’s logistics systems, after struggling with port congestion and a shortage of refrigeration equipment in recent years. The long-term prospects for this significant sector require that we overcome current operational inefficiencies. We need an efficient and cost-effective logistics industry that can facilitate the movement of commodities, not only between provinces, but also to export markets. This presents an opportunity for infrastructure investment in the sector. OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND
In line with global trends to meet the rising food demand driven by population growth, local agricultural research and development (R&D) could contribute towards higher yields and lower post-harvest losses.
Many regions globally have reached their agricultural land expansion frontiers, such that increasing agricultural output requires increased productivity. Optimising yields through intensive input use, new cultivars and better production practices will hopefully increase agricultural sustainability and resilience in the longer term.
A growing focal area for R&D, according to agricultural economist Dr Thulasizwe Mkhabela, relates to zoonotic diseases, food-borne pathogens, and vaccine development for livestock diseases. There is scope for the development of agri-tech, particularly those that address the needs of smallholder farmers.
THREATS TO BIOSECURITY
WATCH NOW
Plant health is intrinsically linked to the survival of our planet and all that live on it. If we care about the eradication of poverty, the critical nature of food security, and the importance of nutrition, then we care about plant health.
Watch The National Science and Technology Discussion Forum on plant health in SA.
If unchecked, the negative impacts of agricultural development that prioritises maximum productivity by exploiting natural resources while disregarding the complex hidden costs (financial and otherwise) of food production, will prevent us from meeting our growing demand for food and fibre on a sustainable basis.
The long-term health of the agricultural sector relies heavily on the sustainability of farming methods. Farming practices must not only ensure profitable yields but also the wellbeing of the factors of production: environment, workers and surrounding communities.
LAND REFORM
The general perception is that government’s execution of land reform strategies has been poor, resulting in various failures. Without a clear land reform policy framework that is well-executed, the inequalities of the
A more hands-on approach can advance food justice in the face of climate change.
past will continue to increase – and we run the risk that the core of the commercial agricultural sector, a key driving force of the economy and food security in the country, will collapse.
Robust and transparent criteria for awarding land is critical to create confidence in a corruption-free process. For emerging farmers to access capital to develop land, blended finance models need to be developed between government and the private sector now. Strong public-private partnerships will be crucial to the success of the reform initiatives.
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THOUGHT [ECO]NOMY
Urban lockdown lessons for South Africa: INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR EQUITABLE FOOD SYSTEMS | Published by WWF – World Wide Fund for Nature. [2020]
Covid-19 has brought the fragility of urban food systems into sharp focus. South Africa presents an important case study to demonstrate the role of urban food systems in supporting a more equitable global food system. South Africa’s local government sphere has no discrete formal mandate to address foodgreeneconomy/report recycle security issues. The research provides a snapshot of the difficulties that come with this “absent policy mandate” for urban responses towards the current and future impact of global climate change on these systems (page 5). Starting at city level is a good place to initiate a dialogue on food-system transformation. City impacts are significant due to high poverty rates and burdens of chronic, non-communicable diseases. The pandemic has shown that an inability to withstand stresses in the food system is due to on-the-ground social inequality, no access to resources, poverty, poor infrastructure, lack of representation, and inadequate systems of social security, early warning and planning. If cities and towns are to develop in ways that are sustainable, climate resilient and equitable, capacities and mechanisms are needed that will deliver information into complex technical and political urban decision-making processes. The disruption of food systems due to Covid-19 has foreshadowed the future impacts of climate change (page 15). The innovative work in some of the large cities in South Africa showcases how adaptation to climate change has been prioritised. The City of Cape Town, eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality and City of Johannesburg metros have included food-system resilience in their Climate Strategies and Action Plans. Although there is recognition of climate change by many smaller municipalities, evidence of action is limited (page 27).
While being affected by environmental and economic externalities, the urban food system is also a driver of environmental change through waste, emissions and ecosystem degradation linked to food production and input extraction. If unchecked, these feedback loops further reinforce food-system instability and vulnerability to shocks (page 18).
Recommendations in the report address six fundamental challenges: food trade, value chains, health and the built environment, informality, and climate change (page 20). © Text 2020 WWF South Africa
Equity in a climatecompromised world
Features of the urban geography 07 13 18 Food-system governance 20 Report considerations
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Run by the universities of Stellenbosch, Cape Town and Witwatersrand, the National Income Dynamics Study Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM) surveys the impacts of Covid-19 in South Africa. Click this
