TRANSPORT
Six Future MOBILITY TRENDS In the past 20 years, electric vehicle start-ups have moved from obscurity into some of the world’s most valuable companies, most automakers have committed to an electric future and flying electric taxis have started to leave the pages of science fiction. BY LUKE GEAR*
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he rapid pace of change has been enabled by technological leaps in the underlying componentry and materials, from lithium (Li-ion) batteries to light detection and ranging (LiDAR). But there is still a long way to go as the industry strives to close the performance gap with internal combustion engines, increase safety, lower costs and overcome regulatory barriers.
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Electrification is global and is happening in all sectors. A decade ago, IDTechEx’s 2011 report “bullishly” predicted 1.5-million battery-electric car sales by 2021 – this turned out to be an underestimate by over half, as China, the US and Europe all grew their markets last year. The sheer volumes and successes of electric vehicles in the automotive market are driving down costs, creating opportunities for many other mobility sectors.
On the waterways, electric ferry deliveries have boomed to ~80MWh yearly as battery pack costs fell below $600 per kWh, energy densities improved and thermal management innovations vastly increased safety. Similar drivers are pushing forward investment into electric air-taxis, with American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, United Airlines, UPS and Avolon having all placed pre-orders. Electrification is not so much unstoppable as inevitable and will continue to play a dominant role in the decarbonisation of mobility.
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Autonomous vehicles will transform the automotive industry – again. Just as the industry grapples with massive changes in powertrain technology, IDTechEx expects commercial autonomous cars, or robotaxis, to be market-ready and match
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