XP Presidential Poll –Round 13 August, 2018
XP Presidential Poll - Details Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe) Sample: 1000 interviews/each week
Coverage: National Method: Phone call interviews
XP Presidential Polls Month & Week Data Colection May Wk3 May-15 to May-18 May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 May Wk5 (Truck Strike) June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15
Political Analysis
TSE Register# BR-09600/2018 BR-05699/2018 BR-05997/2018 BR-07273/2018 BR-06647/2018 BR-03362/2018 BR-04338/2018 BR-09898/2018 BR-02843/2018 BR-07756/2018 BR-06820/2018 BR-08988/2018 BR-02075/2018
Margin of Error: 1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p.
All files from previous polls and scenarios breakdowns are available here. 2
Voter profile: current week distribution
Political Analysis
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL) GENDER MALE FEMALE
REGION 48% 52%
AGE 16 & 17 YO 18 TO 34 YO 35 TO 54 YO +55 YO OCUPATION WORKING NOT WORKING INCOME (MW = USD260) E CLASS (< 1 MW) D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) A CLASS (> 20 MW) DIDN'T ANSWER EDUCATION LEVEL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MIDDLE SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL HIGHER EDUCATION
1% 33% 40% 27% 57% 43% 21% 30% 34% 10% 4% 0% 8% 29% 44% 19%
NORTH NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST SOUTH MIDWEST TYPE OF CITY CAPITAL TOWNS OUTLYING TOWNS COUNTRY TOWNS CITY SIZE < 50.000 HAB 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB > 500.000 HAB RELIGION CATHOLIC EVANGELICAL DONT KNOW SPIRITTUALISM ADVENTITST OTHER AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
8% 27% 43% 15% 7% 24% 17% 59% 34% 24% 14% 29% 62% 21% 7% 4% 1% 5% 0% 3
Highlights
Political Analysis
The first XP Presidential Poll released after the definition of the candidates of all parties showed that Bolsonaro started the campaign as the leader in the scenario in which Lula isn’t considered. He has 23% of votes, followed by Marina (11%), Alckmin (9%), Ciro (8%) and Haddad (7%). When Lula is the PT candidate, the former president appears ahead with 31%, followed by Bolsonaro (20%). Fernando Haddad (PT) support grew 4 p.p. to 7%. He’s now tied within the margin of error with Marina, Alckmin and Ciro. Haddad also rose in the scenario in which he’s identified as “supported by Lula” (from 13% to 15%) and in all second-round scenarios. It’s important to note that the scenarios were modified, adding more andidates. The order in which the scenarios were read to the voters also changed. The scenario in which Lula is considered now come before the others.
The voters were asked for the first time if they believe that Lula will run for president or not. 56% of them say he won’t run, while 40% say he might run or will surely run. Among Haddad’s voters, 75% believe that Lula will run. The opposite happens among Bolsonaro’s voters: 76% say he won’t run. Voters were also asked if they believe that Lula should run or should he be prohibited from running. Half of them say that Lula should be prohibited, while 44% believe he should be allowed to run. Among voters of different candidates, the rates are also differ. Voters of left wing candidates are more likely to defend Lula’s right to run, while 86% of Bolsonaro voters say he should be prohibited from running.
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XP Poll
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios 2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis
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Voting Intention - Spontaneous
Political Analysis
August Week 3
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Scenario 1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with Lula (PT)
Political Analysis
August Week 3
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Scenario 2 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with Fernando Haddad (PT)
Political Analysis
August Week 3
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Scenario 3 – Haddad with Lula’s support
Political Analysis
August Week 3
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Second option
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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Second option
Political Analysis
IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR? Choice in scenario 3 FERNANDO HADDAD,
JAIR
GERALDO
MARINA
CIRO
ÁLVARO
ÁLVARO DIAS
SUPPORTED BY LULA 1%
BOLSONARO 13%
ALCKMIN 6%
SILVA 3%
GOMES 3%
DIAS 0%
CIRO GOMES
2nd Option
UNDECIDED 0%
33%
1%
9%
8%
0%
9%
0%
FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA
0%
4%
6%
18%
22%
0%
0%
GERALDO ALCKMIN
2%
13%
0%
11%
8%
13%
0%
GUILHERME BOULOS
5%
1%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES
1%
3%
5%
3%
2%
5%
0%
JAIR BOLSONARO
5%
0%
6%
18%
9%
23%
0%
MARINA SILVA
18%
5%
16%
0%
12%
16%
0%
JOÃO AMOÊDO
0%
5%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
VERA LÚCIA
0%
0%
3%
1%
2%
0%
0%
CABO DACIOLO
0%
6%
1%
0%
2%
0%
0%
JOÃO GOULART FILHO
0%
1%
1%
0%
0%
4%
0%
JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL
1%
0%
1%
2%
0%
2%
0%
DIDN'T ANSWER
0%
0%
1%
0%
2%
0%
0%
DON'T KNOW
1%
4%
6%
4%
9%
4%
0%
NONE/BLANK/NULL
31%
42%
34%
31%
28%
25%
0%
HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Vote Migration
Political Analysis
MICRODATA SPECIAL
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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2nd Round Scenarios
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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Voter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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Rejection
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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Unfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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Conviction, recognition and rejection.
Political Analysis
August Week 3
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY. Would Wouldn't Dont't Know Don'tKnow/ Could Vote Total Surely Vote Vote Enough Didn'tAnswer LULA
30%
9%
60%
1%
1%
100%
BOLSONARO
20%
12%
58%
10%
1%
100%
MARINA
11%
21%
60%
7%
1%
100%
ALCKMIN
9%
23%
59%
8%
1%
100%
HADDAD
9%
11%
54%
26%
1%
100%
CIRO
8%
20%
59%
12%
1%
100%
A. DIAS
7%
13%
48%
31%
1%
100%
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Expectation of Victory
Political Analysis
August Week 3
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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XP Poll
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios 2. Assessing the electorate & Microdata Analysis
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Interest in the election
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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President Approval
Political Analysis
August Week 3
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
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Will Lula run?
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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Should Lula run?
Source: XP Investimentos â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Political Analysis
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Disclaimer
Political Analysis
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”). XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this communication. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only. In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979. Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais, políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.
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© GrupoXP August 2018