Foreword The Southwest Louisiana Economic Development Alliance has undertaken a significant project
The document is designed to provide each Parish of Southwest Louisiana with a pullout report.
to guide housing strategies and decisions for Southwest Louisiana for years to come. The project
Although each pullout report can be used as a stand-alone report, we encourage the readers to
consists of a Housing Study (completed in 2012 and updated in 2014), a Housing Strategic Plan and
thoroughly study the entire report in order to truly understand the market dynamics of the entire
Implementation Strategy (included in this report) and, at the heart of the work, The Demand Model
region. This report can be used as:
and the GIS based Housing and Community Development Web Portal. The Demand Model and the
xx As a repository of information for the Southwest Louisiana housing market
Web Portal are unique in that they are dynamic tools that will allow the Alliance to keep information,
xx As a guide on the processes of building and developing housing
data, modeling, projections, etc. updated as market dynamics change. The significance and focus
xx As an informative document that will tell us what will happen in the housing markets if we do nothing
of this work has changed dramatically in the last few years because of the unprecedented economic growth coming to Southwest Louisiana. With over five thousand hours dedicated by the Alliance staff, another two thousand hours invested by local stakeholders and leadership and $300,000 spent on professional contractors, the Alliance has unwavering confidence that this document will be the standard for housing decisions for our region
xx As a guide for decision makers who are considering investments to meet the housing demands xx As a tool to project the needs xx As a tool to determine where housing should be built in the region xx As a recruiting tool for the industries that are attempting to attract top talent to the local economy
for years to come. Participants included local, state and federal government representatives; home
Modeling is a tool that incorporates historical data to assist in projections for future events. The
builders, developers, realtors, apartment owners, the Convention and Visitors Bureau, the banking
most sophisticated tools were available to us in our modeling process. However, due to the
“Studies and plans are often conducted by
industry, nonprofit housing agencies, law
unique housing market dynamics that exist in Southwest Louisiana, the housing demand based on
larger firms for their own purposes, but it is
enforcement, industry and many other
upcoming projects and jobs growth required in-depth research by the Alliance to provide accurate
stakeholders along the way.
data that had to be collected directly from the new jobs sources. In combination, historical data and
our local builders and developers that we had in mind when creating this work.�
Who is our audience? We consider anyone
who is in the business of providing housing or making housing decisions for our community to be our target audience. It was our hope to equip government, developers, builders, financial institutions,
new jobs data will provide our audience with the most accurate projections for housing available. We have provided you with the most comprehensive, accurate and highly informed housing reports available to the Southwest Louisiana housing market.
etc. with the tools they need to make well-informed decisions about our housing markets. In
From this research, we ask the users of this work to make great decisions.
particular, we are aware that this market demand would stretch the limits of our local resources
David Conner, Vice President of Economic Development and International Commerce
and that outside resources would be necessary to meet the demands. Studies and plans are often
SWLA Economic Development Alliance
conducted by larger firms for their own purposes but it is our local builders and developers that we had in mind when creating this work. SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
Acknowledgment This report and project took several years and scores of people to help us create this valuable work. Although we will not be personally thanking the scores of people that were involved, some groups and some individuals will be mentioned and acknowledged for their front line and hands on contribution. Morgan Murray Turpin, Brittany Hebert Duplechian, Daphne Richard, and staff of the Alliance. The staff of the Alliance contributed over 5,000 hours toward this project. Jennifer Wallace (Calcasieu), Lori Marinovich (Calcasieu), Marion Fox (Jefferson Davis), Tracie Fontenot (Jefferson Davis), Clair Hebert Marceaux (Cameron), Misty Clanton (Beauregard), and Brenda Byrd (Allen). These regional partners were the team that reviewed and edited every line of every page of this document. Most importantly, they brought together the leaders and stakeholders from each of their parishes to capture the culture and the character of the Region. CSRS Team, led by Travis Woodard. Not only is Travis’ team skilled at what they do, Travis is a native of Southwest Louisiana so he knew us. Housing Committee. The Housing Committee was made up of leadership from the Board of Realtors, the Apartment Association, the SWLA Convention and Visitors Bureau, the National Association of Homebuilders, the banking industry, local nonprofit homebuilders, local developers, economic developers, and several from government offices in the Region. This was probably the largest and most broadly represented committee in all of the GO Group subcommittees. City and Parish officials and many other community leaders and stakeholders. To give local perspective from local leaders we sought input from government leaders and stakeholders from the five parishes. Sasol management and particularly Victor Louw and Lienkie Bonnet for offering funding support and committee input. Dr. Charles Smith, Professor of Finance at University of Houston Downtown, for his expertise in real estate valuation, and his history and experience in writing real estate market reports. We are grateful for his contribution and assistance in building a very powerful RFP. The State of Louisiana Office of Community Development Disaster Recovery Unit for providing the funding for a bulk of this report. Don Hutchinson of Louisiana Housing Corporation for his assistance in dealing with a state agency and guidance on state programs. Dr. Daryl Burckel at McNeese State University and his team for heading up the project that yielded the original housing study. The study provided the data to help with the completion of the Strategic Plan and Implementation Strategy.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
Contents
Photography used in this document are courtesy of Lindsey Janies Photography, Lake Charles, Louisiana and from stock sources.
Regional Overview Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . .
1
Beauregard Parish Housing Strategic Plan. . . . . . . . . . . Resiliency Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . Market Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DeRidder Pull-Out Plan. . . . . . . . . . . Supply Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Implementation Strategy. . . . . . . . .
37 41 53 55 59 63
Housing Strategic Plan. . . . . . . . . . . 67 Resiliency Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Market Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Supply Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan. 95 Implementation Strategy. . . . . . . . . 107
Allen Parish Housing Strategic Plan. . . . . . . . . . . 7 Resiliency Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Market Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Supply Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Implementation Strategy. . . . . . . . . 33
Calcasieu Parish
Cameron Parish Housing Strategic Plan. . . . . . . . . . 113 Resiliency Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Market Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 Supply Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Implementation Strategy. . . . . . . . . 133
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Jefferson Davis Parish Housing Strategic Plan. . . . . . . . . . 139 Resiliency Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Market Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Jennings Pull-Out Plan. . . . . . . . . . 159 Supply Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Implementation Strategy. . . . . . . . . 167
Temporary Housing Housing Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Housing Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Housing Finance Housing Finance Analysis . . . . . . . . . 180
Appendix A. American Housing. . . . . . . . . . . 184
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
Study, Strategic Plan, or Implementation Strategy These terms are not always clear and are sometimes used interchangeably leading to confusion.
feasible to build housing? Given a particular demographic population in the future [Information from
Hopefully this short discussion will clarify what we mean when we use them.
the Study] what types [single family, duplex, apartments, etc.] would be needed, and given particular
Study: the careful or diligent search for information and facts; the collecting of information about a particular subject; investigate and analyze (a subject or situation) in detail A study is a project or effort to collect factual information about a topic. This mass of facts, numbers,
incomes what would be needed? Many different options were developed and discussed. After looking at Strategic options, one or two may be selected as most interesting. Then one must look at the process and cost of Strategic Implementation or sometimes called an Implementation Strategy.
and data is analyzed to change it into information. i.e. In other words we collect a lot of data and
Implementation Strategy: the carrying out, execution, or practice of a plan, a method, or any design,
then analyze and interpret to draw some conclusions. For the housing study we did research and
idea, model, specification, standard or policy for doing something. As such, implementation is the
collected information about current housing capacity, current and future trends and possible
action that must follow any preliminary thinking in order for something to actually happen. In our
demand for housing in the future. A study does not typically say what to do in the future based on
discussion : A listing of activities, costs, expected difficulties, and schedules that are required to achieve
the information gathered.
the objectives of the strategic plans.
To do that, we look at possible options which lead to different outcomes. This is a Strategic analysis or developing a Strategic Plan.
This is the process of making a plan that actually allocates resources [often people and money] to support and make real the selected Strategic result. One must state a clear vision for how the Strategic
Strategic Plan: A systematic process of envisioning a desired future, and translating this vision into
Plan will be implemented. Typically this includes clear goals, milestones and steps that need to be
broadly defined goals or objectives and a sequence of steps to achieve them. Strategic planning begins
achieved on the way to the final product. These are the details that must happen for the Strategy to
with the desired-end and works backward to the current status. Strategic planning is an organization’s
actually happen. For example in housing, what steps must be taken to encourage development of
process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue
appropriate housing types, in the right price ranges, in a location where there is or can be infrastructure,
this strategy. [A STUDY is often part of the raw material input used to develop a strategic plan]
that people may want to live? For our purposes, we convened Stakeholder Input meetings in each of
Good strategic planning always involves looking at different options or futures and weighing them
the five parishes to help define these strategies.
against what your group wants to achieve, what an ideal future would look like, and what resources are
“Vision [Strategy] without action is dreaming. Action without a vision [Strategy] is wasted.”
needed and available. Strategy Option Zero should always be Do Nothing. This is often not a realistic
“Success is at the intersection of Strategy Avenue and Implementation Street.”
option so other Strategic options are developed. For housing, we developed different options and discussed them with the stakeholders. For example, given existing infrastructure where would it be
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
REGIONAL OVERVIEW — Southwest Louisiana (SWLA) is comprised of 5 parishes and connects to the adjoining Acadiana and Central Louisiana regions. It is composed of the following parishes: Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, and Jefferson Davis.
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REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Executive Summary | REGIONAL OVERVIEW
considered the 10 year period from 2015 – 2024. While the inputs to this model will definitely change as time progresses, particularly employment, it represents the best available tool to predict housing needs for the region. The model was developed in a way that allows the employment and salary inputs to be updated in order to determine the impact of new projects on the region.
Southwest Louisiana (SWLA) is entering a period of rapid economic growth. That growth is being brought about largely due to a renaissance in the petrochemical and energy industries. One of the major areas that will be impacted is housing. These impacts include short-term impacts due to the influx of workers required to construct the projects driving the growth and long-term impacts that will occur as people permanently migrate to SWLA due to an abundance of employment opportunities. Growth in employment has already begun. The Lake Charles MSA was the fastest growing metropolitan area in the US over the twelve month period from April 2014 – April 20151. Employment growth during that period was 7.8%, over 1.4% higher than any other metropolitan area. This growth in employment will ultimately drive an increase in population. The increase in population was modeled using socioeconomic and demographic tools to predict the population changes by Parish. These models place significant emphasis on recent and historical trends, as well as current demographics. As a result, actual changes may vary significantly based on policy and planning efforts undertaken by local government. The population estimates for SWLA are below.
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2 PARISH
ANNUAL NEW HOUSING DEMAND - SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
HOUSING UNITS
Executive Summary
2014
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Allen
25,713
25,630
25,675
25,695
25,680
25,525
25,442
25,299
25,213
25,156
25,040
Beauregard
36,198
36,381
36,577
36,745
36,946
37,084
37,257
37,400
37,589
37,722
37,875
Calcasieu
197,204
198,256
204,494
209,235
213,450
213,013
214,080
213,974
215,721
218,415
219,406
Cameron
6,679
6,631
6,614
6,586
6,569
6,503
6,451
6,388
6,348
6,305
6,250
Jefferson Davis
31,477
31,407
31,956
32,330
32,626
32,368
32,303
32,097
32,107
32,240
32,162
TOTAL
297,271
298,305
305,316
310,592
315,271
314,493
315,532
315,158
316,978
319,837
320,733
The projections suggest that SWLA will grow rapidly through 2018, followed by a period of relatively flat population through 2021. Growth is expected to pick up again in 2022 through the end of the study period. The second period of growth is largely driven by employment associated with the Sasol GTL project. The magnitude of the employment (direct, indirect, and induced) associated with that project alone is enough to have a significant influence on the regional economy. Local stakeholders should continue to monitor all projects as they move through the project development pipeline in order to react to any changes appropriately. Demand for housing will increase as the population grows. However, the growth in population is not the only factor to consider when planning for future housing needs. It is also important to take into account current information such as vacancy rates, pricing trends, affordability, and the age of the housing stock. Using that information, a model of housing demand was developed for each Parish. The model
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
YEAR
The chart above indicates the number of overall housing units expected to be needed each year in SWLA. Ultimately, about 9,750 housing units will be needed over the next 10 years. As with the population increases, demand is robust from 2016-2018. It also shows strong increases in 2022 – 2023. Perhaps just as importantly, demand never shows a strong decrease. While the years from 2019 – 2021 are relatively flat, it never turns negative. This is important because it shows that if supply keeps up with, but does not exceed, demand, there should not be a large surplus of housing as projects are completed and begin operations. If this holds true, supply and demand will remain relatively balanced and prices will increase at manageable levels. If the supply fails to keep up with demand, prices will rapidly increase and create an untenable, inflationary environment. Much of the demand will be in the single family home market. This is the largest segment of the current housing market and is likely to remain so throughout the next 10 years. That being said, a combination of the millennial generation and people moving to SWLA from other places will begin to drive demand for different types of housing – higher priced multifamily, condominiums, lofts, mixed use developments… etc. The needs and preferences for these individuals, as well as the aging population, should be considered when planning new developments. The chart on the following page shows the anticipated housing needs by price point.
_______________________________________ 1 Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, Metropolitan area employment in April 2015 on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2015/metropolitan-area-employment-in-april-2015.htm 2 Population estimates from Louisiana Demographics, LLC based on latest American Community Survey data 2
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
3
REGIONAL OVERVIEW | Executive Summary
Executive Summary | REGIONAL OVERVIEW
The multifamily market is also expected to grow. The chart below shows rental demand by price point.
NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES - SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA 1800
NEW RENTAL UNITS NEEDED - SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA 2000
1400
1800
NUMBER OF NEW HOMES
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
$0-$100K
$101-$125K
$126-$175K
$176-$225K
$226-$300K
> $300K
PURCHASE PRICE
The highest concentration of housing is needed at the lowest price point. This housing demand will be difficult to meet without some sort of subsidy or incentive. Local non-profits such as the local Habitat for Humanity chapter and Project Build A Future should be supported as they will be instrumental in meeting some of this need. Demand at the other price points is fairly even. Due to the high wages associated with many of the jobs coming to SWLA, many of the homes desired will be at the highest price points. This distribution is a healthy sign that all aspects of the economy, and all segments of the housing market, are primed for some level of growth.
4
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
NUMBER OF NEW RENTAL UNITS - ALL TYPES
1600
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
$0-$600
$601-$800
$801-$1,000
$1,001-$1,500
> $1,500
MONTHLY RENT
The multi-family demand is concentrated at the lower price points. This is not unusual for smaller metropolitan areas. In those markets, multifamily housing is usually a short-term arrangement until financing can be obtained for permanent housing. As new apartment complexes are considered and developed, affordability must be kept in mind. While short term spikes in demand may allow for higher prices, longer term demand is likely to be driven by affordability. Overall, every segment of the SWLA housing market is expected to see growth over the next 10 years. That growth is expected to occur in a manner that will allow for only moderate price increases and at a pace that the development community can support. It will be important for clear communications about project progress and overall economic activity to become the norm going forward. Local and parish governments will have new opportunities to collaborate as they work with one another to ensure that housing needs are met in the most appropriate and resilient ways possible. Ultimately, it will be a partnership of elected officials, real estate professionals, and industry that will determine the success and trajectory of the local housing market.
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
5
ALLEN PARISH — Geographically, Allen Parish serves as the gateway between Southwest Louisiana and Central Louisiana. Allen Parish personifies much of small-town, rural Louisiana.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy LJP
ALLEN PARISH
Housing Strategic Plan | ALLEN PARISH
Allen Parish Housing Strategic Plan INTRODUCTION
Because of its geographic location, it is influenced by the economies of both SWLA and Central Louisiana. Casino gaming was introduced to the Parish in 1993 when the Coushatta Tribe opened the Grand Casino Coushatta between the towns of Kinder and Oberlin. Since that time, gaming has grown to become the largest employer in the Parish with over 3,000 employees. Other major industries include corrections, timber, agriculture, and healthcare.
Geographically, Allen Parish serves as the gateway between Southwest Louisiana and Central Louisiana. Allen Parish personifies much of small-town, rural Louisiana. The area is largely unincorporated. Those cities and towns that are incorporated are relatively small. The largest is the City of Oakdale with about 7,800 residents. According to the most recent U.S. Census data, Allen Parish is the 4th largest parish in the Southwest Louisiana region with a July 1, 2013 estimated population of 25,537 residents1 and the 37th most populated Parish in the State of Louisiana. SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA REGIONAL MAP
In 2005, Allen Parish was a significant leader in the region as a result from impacts to the Louisiana coast suffered during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Approximately 11,200 coastal evacuees sought shelter and refuge in Allen Parish. The Parish is also home to the West Bay Wildlife Management Area, a 56,000 acre paradise enjoyed by outdoor enthusiasts throughout the state. In addition to West Bay, Allen Parish boasts one of the state’s premier canoeing locations — the Ouiska Chitto River. This scenic waterway is accessible from Mittie and provides a relaxing floating experience where natural Louisiana can be observed.
The Allen Parish educational system consistently rates as one of the best in the SWLA area, as well as Louisiana overall. In 2014, per the Louisiana Department of Education, out of the 71 school districts throughout the State, the Allen School District ranked 12th with a performance score of 98.3 and received a “B” letter grade. The Allen Parish School District has experienced modest growth from 2010-2015, growing from 4,301 students to 4,370 students over that period.
_______________________________________ 1 July 1, 2013 Population Estimate, U.S. Census Bureau 7
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH | Housing Strategic Plan
Housing Subsection Strategic Title Plan || SECTION ALLEN PARISH TITLE
CURRENT TRENDS From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, the Parish lost 227 residents due to outmigration. The Parish experienced a net loss of 502 people between 2010 and 2013 due to more persons leaving the Parish than moving to the Parish. In contrast, the school system saw enrollment increase from 4,301 to 4,370, or a gain of 69 students over that same period. From May 2013 to May of 2015, enrollment has remained flat. The discrepancy could be a result of an increase in cohort retention rates, graduation rates, out of district attendance, or anomalies within the family makeup of those that left the Parish. Regardless, this trend must be monitored closely in the future in order for the School Board to make the appropriate adjustments. ALLEN PARISH HISTORICAL POPULATION 25,440
25,764
POPULATION
25,000
20,794
21,390
21,226
OVERALL ANNUAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
25,713
25,630
25,675
25,695
25,680
25,525
25,442
25,299
25,213
25,156
25,040
Population projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC
Population growth from proposed regional economic development activities will help to offset projected population loss for the Parish. Allen Parish is expected to gain an additional 146 residents by 2016 through new employment in the Region.3 This number will increase to 351 residents by 2024. In terms of households, 58 new households are expected to move to Allen Parish by 2016 with a total of 140 moving to the Parish by 2024. While this growth is not enough to completely offset the population decline, it will reduce the rate of decline by almost 50%.
WHILE THE POPULATION HAS REMAINED STEADY, THE NUMBER OF OVERALL
19,867 20,000
POPULATION IMPACT FROM REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
HOUSING UNITS HAS INCREASED 4 TIMES AS QUICKLY AS THE POPULATION
18,835
OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS. 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YEAR
Without any catalytic economic development projects within Allen Parish, the trends observed from 2010 to 2013 are projected to continue throughout the next 10 years. Between 2014 and 2024, Allen Parish is projected to lose 1,232 people.2 The Parish is projected to lose 528 children (people age 0-17). Working age adults age 18 to 64 will decline by 956 residents. However, the Parish will experience an increase of 296 persons age 65 and older. These findings point to important housing policy considerations for Parish leaders. The gradual loss of children will shrink demand for public education and single family housing. In contrast, a growing retirement-age population points to new opportunities to serve aging residents through the construction of multi-unit independent living centers. This projected loss is without the influence of the regional economic development activities. The impact of those projects on Allen Parish is analyzed in later sections of the report.
The majority of Allen Parish is mostly Non-Hispanic White (70.6%)4 and Non-Hispanic African Americans (23.0%). Hispanic residents account for 1.7% of the population. This is substantially smaller than the percent of Hispanics statewide (4.7%). It is likely that the current level of racial and ethnic diversity will be stable over the next decade if current trends continue. Overall, Allen Parish has a stable population that may experience a slight decrease over the next decade based on historical projections. The Parish has a low vacancy rate among owner occupied homes—1.1% for Allen Parish compared to 2.0% for Louisiana overall.5 Rental vacancy rates are also far below statewide averages—4.5% for Allen Parish compared to 8.4% for Louisiana. Typically, vacancy rates are expected to increase as the population declines. If vacancy rates remain low, it could be a sign that the lack of available housing stock is actually impeding growth in the Parish.
The shifts in the age structure of the population is symptomatic of a broader demographic trend occurring in less populated areas of Louisiana. Rural Parishes are losing younger residents (age 18-34) to more urbanized areas primarily to pursue educational and employment opportunities in economic hubs. Without overt efforts to counter this trend, Allen Parish will likely continue to lose population mostly to Calcasieu Parish.
_______________________________________ 2 Population Projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC 9
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
_______________________________________ 3 Projections of the location of new population due to new employment from the SWLA Regional Impact Study 4 July 1, 2013 Population Estimates by Age, Race, Sex, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. Census Bureau 5 2008-2012 American Community Survey Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH | Housing Strategic Plan
Housing Strategic Plan | ALLEN PARISH
The number of overall housing units has increased 4 times as quickly as the population over the last 15 years. This is largely a function of the Grand Casino Coushatta and development spurred by the casino. The growth of the casino industry has likely attracted and enabled younger workers (millennials) to pursue independent housing rather than living with friends or relatives. It has also resulted in the construction of additional housing that is used for seasonal or long-term, but temporary occupants. The average household size decreasing from 3.15 people per household to 3.02 people per household over the period from 2000-2010.
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CENSUS
2000
2010
% CHANGE
Population
25,440
25,764
1.27%
Households
8,102
8,516
5.11%
Average Household Size
3.15
3.02
-6.13%
Source : US Census Bureau
The Parish is home to the West Bay Wildlife Management Area, a 56,000 acre paradise, enjoyed by outdoor enthusiasts throughout the State. LJP
LJP
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH
Resiliency Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
Resiliency Analysis LAND DEVELOPMENT Recent development within Allen Parish has been modest, with growth mainly limited to the Hwy 165 corridor and Hwy 383. Typically, lots are between 3 to 5 acres and include onsite individual sanitary sewer treatment due to the lack of a regional sanitary sewer collection system and wastewater treatment infrastructure. These individual lot based systems will become an issue if not maintained properly as required by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH). Future residential housing developments should provide on-site subdivision sanitary treatment facilities or be required to tie into a community wastewater treatment facility. Upgrades to community wastewater treatment facilities may be required to accommodate future development. The lack of different types of residential housing is a barrier to attracting new population to the Parish. The current housing stock consists primarily of single family homes. In the rural areas, these homes are primarily homestead homes that sit on larger sites. In the towns, there is a combination of small subdivisions, modest apartments, and some single family homes on larger tracts of land. With the current demand and the expectation of new industry in the Region, housing type diversity needs to be expanded. Housing type diversity is a key element for the Parish to position itself for future growth. This cannot be accomplished immediately. It will require a collaborative master plan effort between the Parish and its municipalities to provide a framework that is attractive for developers and future residents. If no action is taken, then development will occur in an unplanned manner adding strain to existing infrastructure and resources. A lack of cooperative action will also result in lost opportunities for community improvements and economic growth.
HOUSING TYPE DIVERSITY IS A KEY ELEMENT FOR THE PARISH TO
LAND DEVELOPMENT CODE REVIEW The Code of Ordinances for the unincorporated areas of Allen Parish does not define a subdivision approval process, stormwater drainage requirements, or specify what type of development is acceptable. Chapter 42 of the Code of Ordinances for the unincorporated areas of Allen Parish includes common requirements designed to minimize flood losses. Those requirements are:
1. All new construction or substantial improvements shall be designed (or modified) and adequately anchored to prevent flotation, collapse, or lateral movement of the structure resulting from hydrodynamic and hydrostatic loads, including the effects of buoyancy; 2. All new construction or substantial improvements shall be constructed by methods and practices that minimize flood damage; 3. All new construction or substantial improvements shall be constructed with materials resistant to flood damage; 4. All new construction or substantial improvements shall be constructed with electrical, heating, ventilation, plumbing, and air conditioning equipment and other service facilities that are designed and/or located so as to prevent water from entering or accumulating within the components during conditions of flooding; 5. All new and replacement water supply systems shall be designed to minimize or eliminate infiltration of flood waters into the system; 6. New and replacement sanitary sewage systems shall be designed to minimize or eliminate infiltration of flood waters into the system and discharge from the systems into flood waters; and, 7. On-site waste disposal systems shall be located to avoid impairment to them or contamination from them during flooding.
POSTURE ITSELF IN A POSITIVE MANNER FOR FUTURE GROWTH.
Planning should be done in a sustainable manner that complements the existing environmental conditions and available infrastructure while adhering to resiliency strategies. Generally the available utility, transportation, cultural, and social infrastructure has been provided around the cities of Oakdale, Oberlin, and Kinder along the Hwy 165 corridor. Utilization of the available infrastructure within these communities is the focus of current efforts within this implementation strategy.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Chapter 42 also states that minimum finished floor elevation must be equal to or greater than the 100 year base flood elevation. Allen Parish is not at risk for tidal storm surge related flooding, therefore building principles to protect against wave action protection are not necessary. Allen Parish’s code primarily addresses making a structure more resilient to flooding; however the code does not address making sure that developments do not increase the flood risk to surrounding properties. In other words, sites are evaluated individually rather than based upon their impact to the overall system.
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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SECTION ALLEN PARISH TITLE | Resiliency Analysis
Although Allen Parish is not directly connected to the Gulf of Mexico and is not within the designated Department of Natural Resource Coastal Zone, it has the potential to be vulnerable to seasonal tropical storms. Flooding potential exists along drainage corridors due to low elevations. Approximately 31.2% of the Parish is within a Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA).
Subsection Title
LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS The land development process in unincorporated areas of Allen Parish is one of the simpler processes. Developers do not have to obtain approval from the Police Jury in order to construct a subdivision or other type of development. Instead, developers must get approval from the Parish Engineer prior to starting their project. However, Police Jury approval is required after construction is complete if the developer would like for the Parish to take over maintenance of the public subdivision streets.
ALLEN PARISH LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
ALLEN PARISH - FLOODZONE MAP
Resiliency Subsection Analysis Title || SECTION ALLEN PARISH TITLE
Developer brings the following items to Parish Engineer for review 1. Preliminary Plat 2. Letter of approval of sewer disposal methods from DHH
Parish Engineer inspects all roads that are requested by developer to be accepted into the parish maintenance system. Parish Construction Engineer will on subdivision recommend a 1 year starts initial acceptance period to the Police Jury. The owner will maintain the road during the 1 year initial acceptance period.
Police Jury approves 1 year initial acceptance period
Parish engineer Police Jury will re-inspect approves road after 1 subdivision year and make into recommendation perpetual to Police Jury for maintenance approval system.
LAND DEVELOPMENT ORDINANCE RECOMMENDATIONS Historically, there has been minimal land development activity in the unincorporated portion of Allen Parish. However, updating the ordinances prior to any increase in development activity should be considered to ensure that Allen Parish can protect the overall character of the area. Updating ordinances would also provide an opportunity to implement resiliency concepts such as adding freeboard to the minimum finished floor elevations and requiring post development runoff rates from developments to be limited to pre-development runoff rates. One specific recommended change to the land development ordinance is to require the finished floor elevations of structures to be higher than, rather than equal to, the highest of the following criteria: the 100 year base flood elevation, the nearest sanitary sewer manhole, the centerline of adjacent roadway, or maximum recorded inundation. Adding this requirement into the land ordinances will decrease the risk of loss during a flooding event. ZONE AE - 100 Year Flood Plain With Base Flood Elevation ZONE A - 100 Year Flood Plain With No Base Flood Elevation
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
16
ALLEN PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Allen Parish should consider participating in the National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) Community Rating System (CRS). The CRS is a voluntary incentive program that recognizes and encourages community floodplain management activities that exceed the minimum NFIP requirements. As a result, flood insurance premium rates are discounted to reflect the reduced flood risk. The risk reduction is reflected by the goals of the CRS Program:
Subsection Title
1. Reduce flood damage to insurable property; 2. Strengthen and support the insurance aspects of the NFIP; and 3. Encourage a comprehensive approach to floodplain management. Another recommendation for Allen Parish is to consider adopting an ordinance that would protect the available floodplain storage volume. This type of ordinance is commonly referred to as “floodplain fill mitigation” because it requires a developer to mitigate, or offset, filling up an area with dirt that previously held water during a flooding event. Finally, an approval from the Police Jury or a planning commission prior to the initiation of construction of new developments is also recommended to make sure that a proposed development is satisfying any approved future parish-wide master plans and/or resiliency principles. Currently, a developer can start construction in the unincorporated areas of the Parish after discussing the project with the Parish Engineer.
Resiliency Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL The residential suitability model for Allen Parish was aimed at infill and fringe development for larger residential projects that have reasonable access to basic services, infrastructure, and desirable community amenities. This model is a tool and starting point to determine where potential and suitable areas for development exist. It is not a substitute for the due diligence process. The residential suitability model is comprised of many layers and data sets. Each of the data sets were given values in order to do a composite score analysis. Composite scores ranged from .093 (low suitability) to 9.45 (high suitability). The core components of the residential suitability model include the following: • Aerial imagery; • Existing land cover classifications; • Transportation corridors; • Existing topographic elevations; • Emergency preparedness such as fire, police, and health care locations; • (Allen Parish Only) Education analysis of public school attendance zones, which were ranked by capacity, and school scores; • Proximity to DEQ air permitted emission locations; • FEMA Firm flood plain locations; • Historical records of inundation from Hurricanes Rita and Ike;
Approximately 31.2% of the Parish is within a Special Flood Hazard Area.
• Proximity to community facilities such as schools, churches, cemeteries, post offices, libraries, shopping centers, grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies; and • Proximity to water and wastewater infrastructure. Allen Parish scored better (high suitability) in locations around existing communities. Due to the rural agriculture nature of most of the Parish, lack of amenities in these rural areas, and large areas within Special Flood Hazard Areas, those areas of the Parish not in or adjacent to existing communities scored lower (low suitability).
RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAKE PARISH INFRASTRUCTURE MORE RESILIENT (MITIGATE RISKS OF PUBLICLY FUNDED INFRASTRUCTURE, SPEED UP RE-BUILDING IN CORRECT PLACES) DUE TO HURRICANES AND HURRICANE INDUCED FLOODING Allen Parish has the opportunity to shape the way it grows in the future. If desirable, the Parish can adopt a parish-wide master plan designating land use for each area. This would require creating a master land use plan that considers a variety of factors in determining the optimal use of land. After the land use plan is prepared, specific resiliency principles can be integrated into the various land use categories to give levels of protection consistent with the risks associated with each area.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
18
ALLEN PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
ALLEN PARISH RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL
A further analysis within the Parish was done to identify potential areas for residential development within the areas of Kinder, Oakdale, and Oberlin. The models are referred to as Potential Residential Areas of Development (PRAD). The components of the PRAD utilized GIS layers which include criteria of suitable land types from the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers (excluding areas of wetlands, already developed, and flood zone). These data areas fall within or intersect areas that score between 6.7 and 9.45 on the Residential Core Suitability Model. The four subcategories of potential utility access are defined:
Resiliency Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
CITY OF KINDER PRAD MODEL
CITY OF OAKDALE PRAD MODEL
• PRAD with water and sewer; • PRAD with water and no sewer; • PRAD with sewer and no water; and • PRAD with no water and no sewer. These PRADs and their subcategories are subsequently intersected with two additional models to highlight areas that are within an ideal drive time target of 8 to 22 minutes to the projects providing the majority of new direct employment in the Region and those areas that provide favorable public schooling (with capacity) throughout all grade levels. A PRAD layer for areas in urbanized zones that scored well on the Residential Core Suitability Model and were classified as “Woody Wetlands” by the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers is available to note areas that need further investigation. These areas should be given consideration as urban habitat zones, municipal parks, recreation, or residential developments depending on the site conditions.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
TOWN OF OBERLIN PRAD MODEL
Resiliency Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
The suitability analysis and PRAD illustrations are incorporated into the online SWLA Alliance Housing & Community Development Web Portal as a Map Tool. Further in depth evaluation and due diligence as well as coordination with approving jurisdictional bodies is highly recommended for developers purchasing property for future development or starting development.
IDENTIFY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS Allen Parish has several large rural water systems which provide reliable potable water service and nominal fire protection to most of the unincorporated areas of the Parish. The largest of these rural water systems in terms of area is the recently constructed Northwest Allen Waterworks System, which serves the area west of Elizabeth to the Beauregard Parish line and into southeastern Vernon Parish, through the unincorporated Grant community, along Hwy 26 from Beauregard Parish to the Calcasieu River, and a large area south of Hwy 26. Around Oakdale, the Allen Parish Water District No. 1 serves the area north of the City of Oakdale into Rapides Parish, Evangeline Ward 4 Water District serves the area east of Oakdale into Evangeline Parish, and the South Oakdale Water System serves the area between Oakdale and Oberlin mainly along Hwy 165, with branches to the east and west. The Town of Oberlin provides water service to a large rural area around Oberlin and west along Hwy 26 to the Calcasieu River. The East Allen Waterworks System serves the area east of Oberlin and stretches through the southeastern end of the Parish to the Town of Elton and into Jefferson Davis Parish. In the southwestern part of the Parish, the Southwest and West Allen Parish Water Systems serve the areas around Kinder, Reeves, and in between. The only significant portion of Allen Parish without public water service is the “West Bay� area between Elizabeth and Oakdale.
IDENTIFY POTENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING SOURCES Oberlin and Kinder each have significantly more potentially developable land than Oakdale. The PRAD analysis indicates that there are some areas around the incorporated areas that do not have access to existing water and/or sanitary sewer. This analysis should be supplemented with additional research by interested parties. Utility infrastructure may exist, but was not available in a digital format at the time of this publication. If utilities are not in place, it is not uncommon. Developers are typically required to install the additional lines as needed to connect to the existing water and sanitary sewer systems. A recommendation for municipalities to consider is if they want to encourage growth in a particular area, then they could install water and sewer lines in advance of development. It is also important to recognize that the suitability and PRAD analysis take into account a variety of factors regarding housing choice including proximity to work, commercial/retail access, and distance to schools, etc. Given the overall rural character of Allen Parish, many of the factors that result in lower suitability scores are precisely the qualities that make the more rural areas of Allen Parish attractive for development. The challenge for local leadership will become clear as growth opportunities present themselves and choices must be made between developing highly suitable areas in or adjacent to communities or developing outside of existing communities while trying to maintain the small-town, rural feel of the Parish. The small pockets of development on LA Hwy 383 are a good example of the latter type of development.
The types of programs that would be best suited for water and sanitary sewer improvements are:
Clean Water State Revolving Loan Program This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for new or upgraded wastewater facilities. The loan term is typically 20 years with interest rates that are less than 1%. The program requires an application to LDEQ. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDEQ website is: http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/portal/tabid/2148/Default.aspx
Drinking Water Revolving Loan Fund This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (LDHH) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for construction of new, or needed upgrades to water treatment facilities. The program requires an application to LDHH. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDHH website is: http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/index.cfm/page/431/n/285
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
Water and Waste Disposal Loans and Grants
Bond Initiative
This program is administered by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The program uses a revolving loan fund for water and waste disposal systems in rural areas and towns with populations of 10,000 or less. It is a continual application process with applications submitted to USDA State and local RDA Offices.
Local governments are able to bond either general fund or special purpose revenue in order to fund capital improvement projects. Future tax revenues are pledged in order to receive a one-time lump sum to fund projects. Interest is paid on the principal balance based on the terms of the bond.
The link to the USDA website is: http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/UWP-dispdirectloansgrants.htm All of these funding sources are in the form of loans—it is incumbent on the borrower to develop a revenue stream large enough to meet the debt service requirements. Typically, the revenue comes in the form of user fees or taxes. These programs do have the benefit of minimizing the upfront capital contribution which makes it easier to finance larger capital improvements. Caution must be exercised to ensure that the improvement projects undertaken have a useful life at least as long as the duration of the debt service in order to justify the extended payback period. The type of programs that would be best suited for transportation improvements are:
State Capital Outlay Each year, the Louisiana Legislature reviews and prioritizes requests from local governments regarding capital projects. The amount of funding varies and funds can be awarded through cash funding, future bond funding, or future lines of credit (based upon assigned Funding Priority). Sewer and transportation projects are frequently funded through this manner. All approved projects are administered by the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control. The link to the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control website is: http://www.doa.louisiana.gov/FPC/fpcSiteIndex.htm#CapitalOutlay
Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) DOTD is the primary agency charged with maintaining and improving the State Highway System. Many of the projects listed above are on state routes. DOTD has a Statewide Transportation Improvement Program, or STIP. This program prioritizes projects to receive state and federal funding. Projects range from capacity improvements by adding lanes to simple safety projects consisting of shoulders, rumble strips, signage, etc. The DOTD also has a “Road Transfer Program” whereby ownership of a current state route is transferred to a local government in exchange for DOTD agreeing to undertake a priority project with a value equal to present value of 30 years future maintenance on the road being transferred. In other words, the local government is able to fund a current project by accepting a long-term maintenance liability.
The link to the State Bond Commission website is: http://www.treasury.state.la.us/Home%20Pages/BondCommission.aspx?@Filter=BC2011
Economic Development Assistance Grants The Economic Development Administration (EDA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce offers funding opportunities for which infrastructure projects may be eligible. The Economic Development Assistance Program (EDAP) leverages regional assets to support the implementation of regional economic development strategies designed to create jobs, leverage private capital, encourage economic development, and strengthen America’s ability to compete in the global marketplace. Funding is contingent upon upcoming fiscal year budget allocations. The link to the EDA website is: http://www.eda.gov/funding-opportunities/
Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) The Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program, under the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), is a flexible program that provides communities with resources to address a wide range of unique community development needs. The CDBG program works to ensure decent affordable housing, to provide services to the most vulnerable in communities, and to create jobs through the expansion and retention of businesses. CDBG is an important tool for helping local governments tackle serious challenges facing their communities. The link to the HUD website is: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/comm_planning/ communitydevelopment/programs
The link to the DOTD website is: http://wwwsp.dotd.la.gov/Inside_LaDOTD/Divisions/Multimodal/STIP/Pages/default.aspx
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH
Market Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS ESTIMATED
Market Analysis The housing outlook for Allen Parish is stable. Historically, sales activity in the Parish has been low, generally averaging less than 100 transactions annually. A combination of stable pricing and low turnover rates has resulted in a consistent, yet somewhat tight, market.
DEMAND DRIVERS
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PRICE
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $100,000
-4
-4
4
4
3
-6
-4
-8
-5
-3
-5
$100,001 to $125,000
-1
-1
1
1
1
-2
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
$125,001 to $175,000
-3
-3
3
2
2
-4
-3
-6
-3
-2
-4
$175,001 to $225,000
-2
-2
2
2
1
-3
-2
-4
-2
-1
-3
$225,001 to $300,000
-2
-1
1
1
1
-2
-2
-3
-2
-1
-2
> $300,000
-2
-2
2
1
1
-3
-2
-3
-2
-1
-2
-14
-13
12
12
9
-21
-14
-27
-15
-10
-18
TOTAL
While there are no major economic development projects announced in Allen Parish, the potential for people to migrate into Allen Parish and commute to project sites was taken into consideration. Other factors that should be considered are the economic health of the Central Louisiana area, future economic development activity, the casino gaming outlook, and any announced changes to the federal prison facilities in Oakdale.
IT IS IMPORTANT THAT HOUSING STRATEGIES BE DEVELOPED TO ADDRESS THIS AGING GENERATION AND THEIR CHANGING HOUSING NEEDS AND PREFERENCES.
It is worth noting that given the relatively high affordability index for Allen Parish of 2.407, it is very possible that actual demand will manifest at price points higher than those predicted by the model. As new residents migrate into the Parish, they will bring with them their own determination of affordability for housing. That determination is likely to result in them spending a higher percentage of their income on housing than the average current resident. It should be expected that the overall affordability index for Allen Parish decreases over the next decade as new housing is built at higher price points. When considering the relatively low demand for new homes and the extremely high affordability index currently, a slight decrease in overall affordability should not be considered problematic. Low density rental demand, both single family and multi-family, is modest. The demand is evenly
An additional consideration when analyzing the overall market demand in Allen Parish is the aging population. The demographic projections for the Parish indicate that the population of people age 65 and older will increase by 3006 people over the next 10 years. This is a common trend nationally. As the baby boomer generation continues to age, the average age of residents in rural parishes/counties also goes up. It is important that housing strategies be developed to address this aging generation and their changing housing needs and preferences. If housing targeting senior groups is successfully developed, it could free up existing housing stock to meet pent up market demand. Remodeling projects could also rise in order to meet the needs of aging occupants.
DEMAND MODEL In order to predict what future demand may be, a statistical model was developed to help analyze historical trends, socioeconomic conditions, and future economic activity. In very simplistic terms, the model describes the most likely population scenario for the area assuming future behavior mimics the last five years. Because of this, the model should be only one of the tools leaders use to inform decisions. It is by no means a deterministic predictor of the future.
distributed among the price points; however, actual demand is likely to shift into whatever units are available given the overall scarcity of rental units in the Parish and low vacancy rates. SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING RENTALS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-3
-3
0
-1
-1
-5
-3
-4
-3
-2
-4
$601 to $800
-1
-1
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
$801 to $1,000
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
$1,001 to $1,500
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
-6
-5
0
-1
-3
-9
-5
-8
-6
-5
-7
The modeled demand for single family housing predicts an unfavorable cumulative demand for housing. This is not surprising given recent trends of slow outmigration. Given the low magnitude of the projected demand, it would be very easy for one economic development project to substantially change the future outlook. _______________________________________ 6 2010 US Census 25
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
_______________________________________ 7 Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH | Market Analysis
MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (2-4 UNITS)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-3
-2
0
-1
-2
-4
-2
-4
-3
-2
-3
$601 to $800
-1
-1
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
$801 to $1,000
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
$1,001 to $1,500
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
-1
-1
0
-1
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
-6
-5
-1
-2
-3
-8
-5
-7
-5
-4
-7
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-8
-5
4
0
-5
-12
-4
-7
-4
-2
-7
$601 to $800
-3
-2
2
0
-2
-6
-2
-3
-2
-1
-3
$801 to $1,000
-2
-1
1
0
-1
-3
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
$1,001 to $1,500
-2
-1
1
0
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
-15
-10
7
-1
-9
-24
-9
-14
-7
-4
-14
MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (>4 UNITS)
TOTAL
AS NEW RESIDENTS MIGRATE INTO THE PARISH, THEY WILL BRING WITH THEM THEIR OWN DETERMINATION OF HOUSING AFFORDABILITY.
The high density multi-family market in Allen Parish is also projected to see negative growth. The projected decline is a result of people moving into homeownership positions that are unable/unwilling to do so upon initial relocation into the Parish. While the model predicts a decline, actual occupancy rates are not likely to decrease; instead, it is likely that people currently commuting into Allen Parish for work will relocate into the Parish.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH
Supply Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
Given the rural nature of the Parish, it is very likely that other homes are available for sale, either through real estate agents not using MLS or for sale by owner. In any event, the relative scarcity of available single family homes has the potential to inhibit growth in the Parish.
Supply Analysis Construction activity in Allen Parish has traditionally been low—this is not surprising for a Parish with a relatively stable population. The Parish provided permitting data from October 2012 through June 2014. During that time, the following new construction permits were issued:
89
57
0
Manufactured/Mobile Homes
Single Family Homes
Multi-Family Homes
The high ratio of manufactured homes to site built homes is common in rural parishes across Louisiana. This happens as people purchase or inherit larger tracts of land and either cannot afford or choose not to build a home. In times past, it could also indicate a demand for low cost sites at mobile home parks. Changes in lending practices as a result of the 2008 recession have made it more difficult to borrow for mobile homes without land equity. The lack of new multi-family housing starts could also be a consequence of increasing financial regulation; however, it is more likely a reflection that the market perceives these projects to have a low return on investment. MLS reports also indicate a nominal amount of activity in transactions. Since August 2011, there have been only 34 recorded sales in the MLS system, with most of those occurring in the Kinder and Oakdale areas. Currently, there are only 28 homes listed for sale in MLS, ranging in price from $40,000-$200,000. Listings and previous sales are depicted below. Listings are shown in red and previous sales are yellow. ALLEN PARISH MLS SALES ACTIVITY
The supply of available rental property in Allen Parish is also very constricted. Rental vacancy rates of 4.5%8 are far below the statewide average of 8.4% (it should be noted that very little empirical data exists for the rental market beyond the American Community Survey (ACS) data). Low vacancy rates are exacerbated by the lack of new construction in the multi-family market. This sentiment was echoed by a group of landlords that were interviewed. That group reported vacancy rates as low as 2%. They also reported modest increases in rent as the supply of available units decreased. Assuming this information is correct, it suggests that there has been an even further tightening of the supply of rental units (single and multi-family) since the 2012 ACS Survey was completed. This is consistent with the overall improving economic picture for the SWLA Region.
MARKET ANALYSIS Even when considering the mild population growth projections for Allen Parish, it is clear that a moderate amount of housing investment will be necessary over the next decade. The existing supply of housing is not sufficient to meet the overall demand in the Parish, particularly for renters. If this situation is not addressed, potential consequences include an increase in the overall rent-stress level of the residents in the Parish.
THE EXISTING SUPPLY OF HOUSING IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO MEET THE OVERALL DEMAND IN THE PARISH, PARTICULARLY FOR RENTERS. Any long-term price increase or supply shortage will likely disproportionately affect lower income households. Potential impacts include: • more families seeking housing assistance • fewer landlords accepting housing subsidies due to higher private market rates • an increase in the number of people per household as households combine to reduce housing costs • increased homelessness and at-risk for homelessness • higher demand for mental health services to cope with economic related stresses In order to ensure that the housing market in Allen Parish can meet demand, new homes must be constructed. The housing suitability model suggests that new housing should be concentrated in the towns along the US 165 corridor. An alternative would be to continue the recent development along LA 383 and Topsy Bel Road between Kinder and Lake Charles. The primary challenge of developing this corridor is the lack of basic public services. If this development pattern continues, it will require additional infrastructure investment by Allen Parish. If growth is deemed desirable, additional service and infrastructure investments could be a catalyst to achieving that goal. _______________________________________ 8 2008-2012 American Community Survey
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH | Supply Analysis
Supply Analysis | ALLEN PARISH
Modeled demand forecasts are as follows:
Because Allen Parish is mostly rural, it is reasonable to expect that much of the demand at the higher price points will be met by individuals constructing their personal residence on larger lots. New subdivision development is most likely to succeed at the lower price points because of the higher expected volume of demand. Homes at these price points often must be constructed as part of a subdivision in order for the cost of housing infrastructure (roads, streets, sewers) to become economical. Densities may need to be higher to support housing at or near the $100,000 range.
ANNUAL NEW HOUSING DEMAND - ALLEN PARISH 30 20 10
NEW RENTAL UNITS NEEDED - ALLEN PARISH
-10
0
-20 -20
-30 -40 -50 -60 -70
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
YEAR
NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES NEEDED - ALLEN PARISH
-40
-60 -80
-100
-120
$0-$600
0
$601-$800
$801-$1,000
$1,001-$1,500
> $1,500
MONTHLY RENT
-5
Lower cost rental housing will be the most needed. Similar to the single family owner-occupied housing, densities may need to be higher to support housing at the low end of the range.
-10 NUMBER OF NEW HOMES
NUMBER OF NEW RENTAL UNITS - ALL TYPES
HOUSING UNITS
0
-15
An additional housing consideration for the area should be senior assisted living. Assisted living housing provides seniors with an option to age in their own community, while still receiving support for some daily living activities. It is oftentimes considered the transitional step between independent living and skilled nursing facilities. Currently, the nearest facilities are in Bunkie, Lake Charles, and Alexandria. The demographic forecast for Allen Parish suggests that as the population continues to age, there could be a modest demand for this type of housing.
-20 -25 -30 -35
$0-$100K
$101-$125K
$126-$175K
$176-$225K
$226-$300K
> $300K
PURCHASE PRICE
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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ALLEN PARISH
Implementation Strategy | ALLEN PARISH
Implementation Strategy ALLEN PARISH Allen Parish is uniquely positioned between the Lake Charles and Alexandria MSA’s. Because of its location, Allen is impacted by the economies of both areas. Additionally, the federal prison in Oakdale and the Grand Casino Coushatta near Kinder both provide steady employment for many residents. Because of relatively flat employment in Allen Parish, very little new demand for housing is projected. Instead, strategies for housing are focusing on improving existing housing circumstances. Despite the overall growth picture, the far northern and southern ends of the Parish may see some level of growth. The opportunities at the northern end of the Parish, namely Oakdale, could develop if the Parish is able to successfully attract people working in Oakdale, but currently living in the Alexandria area. In order for this to occur, modern homes with desirable amenities must be available for purchase. Similarly, the southern end of the Parish is within driving distance to the new petrochemical jobs in SWLA. In particular, the Hwy 165 corridor near Kinder and the Hwy 383 corridor south of Hwy 190 will continue to be one of the first locations potential new residents consider when looking for a more rural setting. The areas in the central part of Allen Parish are just as important and need to participate in any future planning efforts to ensure that all viewpoints are carefully considered. The following are recommended objectives and implementation strategies for Allen Parish leaders to consider:
INCREASE ALLEN PARISH’S VISIBILITY TO POTENTIAL RESIDENTS xx Develop a marketing campaign to target potential new residents. The marketing campaign to include: - Promotion of outdoor activities and the natural beauty of the Parish; - Local festivals and events; - Arts, cultural, and historic sites; - Coushatta Casino and other employment centers; and - Successes and available programs within the Allen Parish public school system.
ENSURE GROWTH IS SUPPORTED BY INFRASTRUCTURE xx Establish a community stakeholder committee (residents and business owners) to conduct a strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis for attracting economic development opportunities. Areas of assessment may include: - Development codes and regulations, permitting process; - Infrastructure (transportation, utilities, public services, emergency preparedness); and - Current business climate within municipalities and Parish.
ENCOURAGE GROWTH WHILE PROTECTING QUALITY OF LIFE xx Develop a citizen-driven community land use master plan that establishes the following: - Vision for future; - Identification of suitable areas of growth; and - Development of a land use plan that balances growth with existing rural small town ambiance. xx Target attraction of housing developers for senior living in order for current residents to have the option to age in place. Allen Parish has the potential to attract some of the people that will be moving into SWLA as a result of the economic boom. The drive time to the new jobs may be a rural lifestyle that is very attractive to some people. With no action by stakeholders, some of this growth will take place in Allen Parish. In order to maximize potential for capturing this population, actions by stakeholders will be necessary. Some of those are outlined in this report while others will continue to be developed over the coming years.
LJP
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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For the family looking to be outside the urban setting, Allen Parish may be the place. Ease of permitting, large lots of land for sale, short commute time to Lake Charles or Alexandria along with areas that support outdoor recreation and agronomics, Allen Parish is ideal for the Hobby Farmers and outdoor types. Temporary housing is in demand here due to number of entry level jobs in the gaming industry. Brenda Byrd Allen Parish Housing Investor and Resident
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
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BEAUREGARD PARISH — Beauregard Parish is located in the southwest corner of the state, just north of Calcasieu Parish and west of Allen Parish. The western boundary of the Parish is along the Sabine River which serves as a state boundary with the State of Texas.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy LJP
BEAUREGARD PARISH
Beauregard Parish Housing Strategic Plan INTRODUCTION Beauregard Parish is located in the southwest corner of the State, just north of Calcasieu Parish and west of Allen Parish. The western boundary of the Parish is along the Sabine River which serves as a state boundary with Texas. According to the most recent US Census data, 2013 estimates, Beauregard Parish is the 2nd largest Parish in the Southwest Region with July 1, 2013 estimated population of 36,167 residents1 and the 31st most populated Parish in the State of Louisiana. SW LOUISIANA REGIONAL MAP
Housing Strategic Plan | BEAUREGARD PARISH
fire protection, the once virgin stands of timber were replanted to restore the forested tracts, attracting both residents and industries. Forestry continues to be a large influence in the Parish economy today. The economic development outlook for the region is extremely strong due to the construction and completion of proposed economic development projects. This will likely result in Beauregard Parish gaining new residents and ancillary commercial/retail land uses. The Beauregard Parish School District has consistently rated as one of the top districts in the Southwest Region and the State. In 2014, out of the 71 school districts in the State, Beauregard School District ranked 15th with a performance score of 97.6 and received a “B” letter grade. The performance ranking has improved every year since 2008. The communities of DeRidder and Merryville are the two incorporated municipalities in the Parish. DeRidder is located in the northern portion of the Parish and is home to parish governmental offices, the parish school board, and the Beauregard Memorial Hospital. All of these are major employment centers for the Parish. The City of DeRidder is also within a 20 minute drive to Fort Polk located in Vernon Parish. The Town of Merryville is a small rural community located in the northwest corner of the Parish. The current population is approximately 1,100 residents.
CURRENT TRENDS The historical population of the Parish is shown on the chart below. Overall population has been relatively flat since the 1980s except for the increase that began in the 1990s. From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, the Parish gained 513 residents. The majority of the gain (387) was due to natural increase— the number of births minus the number of deaths. The remaining population growth was a result of the net in-migration of residents from other areas. 116 more people moved into the Parish than moved out of the Parish. BEAUREGARD PARISH HISTORICAL POPULATION 40,000 35,654 32,986
35,000
In the early part of the 1940s during World War II, Beauregard Parish saw a tremendous influx of American Soldiers, approximately 89,000, who visited the first off base United States Service Organization (USO) GI recreational facility while training in the Region. After WWII the Parish fought through tough economic times. With the assistance from the Louisiana Forestry Commission and the development of Parish-wide _______________________________________ 1 July 1, 2013 Population Estimate, U.S. Census Bureau 37
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
30,083
30,000 POPULATION
During the 20th Century, forestry and logging of virgin long leaf pine trees was the main economic base for the Parish. After the first railway was constructed, many workers from the northern Great Lakes Region relocated to the area. Numerous saw mills were operating around the Parish until the mid to late 1920s. At that time the wooded tracts were deforested leaving only vast areas of stumps. Many settlements that developed around the saw mills were abandoned as workers left the area seeking greater economic fortunes elsewhere.
29,692
22,888
25,000 20,767 19,191
20,000
17,766 14,847
15,000 14,569 10,000
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YEAR
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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BEAUREGARD PARISH | Housing Strategic Plan
Housing Strategic Plan | BEAUREGARD PARISH
POPULATION IMPACT FROM REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES OVERALL ANNUAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS
With the assistance from the Louisiana Forestry Commission and the development of Parish-wide fire protection, the once virgin stands of timber were replanted to restore the forested tracts attracting both residents and industries.
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
36,198
36,381
36,577
36,745
36,946
37,084
37,257
37,400
37,589
37,722
37,875
Population projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC
The modeled impact to the population growth from proposed regional economic development activities will have a limited impact for Beauregard Parish. Population growth, due to the influx of workers filling jobs in the Region, is projected to be 8 new residents in 2016 and 20 new residents by 2024.2 In terms of households, a total of 8 new households are expected to move to Beauregard Parish by 2024. These projections suggest that regional economic development efforts will not place undue stress on the social and economic system of the Parish. The unique location of Beauregard Parish is reflected in the origin and destination areas of migrants. Beauregard Parish has strong migration ties to both Calcasieu and Vernon Parishes, reflecting its proximity to both parishes.3 This finding suggests that policy makers should consider strategies to increase the visibility and attractiveness of the Parish to new migrants. LJP
DIVERSITY In terms of race and ethnicity, the majority of the Beauregard Parish is Nonhispanic White (79.5%).4 Nonhispanic African Americans comprise 13.0% of the population. Hispanic residents account for 3.5% of the population. Based on the population trends, it is likely that the level of racial and ethnic diversity will increase gradually over time. A key feature of the demography of this parish is the level of growth due to natural increase. African American and Hispanic populations have higher birthrates than Nonhispanic Whites. As a result, the Parish may experience a higher level of racial and ethnic diversity among children.
GIVEN THE LOW VACANCY RATE FOR OWNER OCCUPIED UNITS, BEAUREGARD PARISH MAY BENEFIT FROM THE ADDITION OF SINGLE LJP
LJP
The growth trend observed from 2010 to 2013 is projected to continue through 2024. If that trend continues between 2014 and 2024, Beauregard Parish is projected to gain 1,789 residents. The Parish is projected to gain 503 children (people age 0-17). Working-age adults age 18 to 64 will decline by 168 residents. The most significant gain for Beauregard Parish will occur in the retirement population-age 65 and over. For this segment, the population will increase by 1,454 residents. The addition of both young and retirement-age residents suggests an ongoing need for a variety of types of housing in Beauregard Parish including both single family and multi-unit independent living housing. A second policy implication of these demographic shifts is the need for educational infrastructure that can support the growth in the school age population.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
FAMILY UNITS MARKETED TO HOMEOWNERS. Beauregard Parish will enjoy steady, sustainable growth over the coming decade. Housing statistics indicate that the Parish has a low vacancy rate among owner occupied homes—1.2% for Beauregard Parish compared to 2.0% for Louisiana.5 Rental vacancy rates are close to the statewide average—7.1% for Beauregard Parish compared to 8.4% for Louisiana. Given the low vacancy rate for owner occupied units, Beauregard Parish may benefit from the addition of single family units marketed to homeowners. At present, 77.6% of housing units in Beauregard Parish are owner occupied, far above the State average of 67.4%. _______________________________________ 2 Projections of the location of new population due to new employment from the SWLA Regional Impact Study 3 2010-2011 Internal Revenue Service Migration Data Profiles 4 July 1, 2013 Population Estimates by Age, Race, Sex, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. Census Bureau 5 2008-2012 American Community Survey Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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BEAUREGARD PARISH
ResiliencySubsection Analysis | Title BEAUREGARD | SECTION PARISH TITLE
Resiliency Analysis LAND DEVELOPMENT Typically, lots are provided with acreages between 3 to 5 acres and include onsite individual sanitary sewer treatment due to the lack of a regional sanitary sewer collection system and wastewater treatment infrastructure. Over time, these systems become liabilities if not maintained properly as required by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH). Future residential housing developments should provide on-site sanitary treatment facilities or be required to tie into a community wastewater treatment facility. Upgrades to community wastewater treatment facilities may be required to accommodate future development.
THE LACK OF RESIDENTIAL HOUSING TYPE DIVERSITY IS A LEADING INDICATOR IN THE DIFFICULTIES OF ATTRACTING NEW POPULATION.
The code includes common requirements designed to minimize flood losses. Those requirements are: 1. All new construction or substantial improvements shall be designed (or modified) and adequately anchored to prevent flotation, collapse or lateral movement of the structure resulting from hydrodynamic and hydrostatic loads, including the effects of buoyancy; 2. All new construction or substantial improvements shall be constructed by methods and practices that minimize flood damage; and 3. All new construction or substantial improvements shall be constructed with materials resistant to flood damage.
Although Beauregard Parish is not directly connected to the Gulf of Mexico and is not within the designated Department of Natural Resource (DNR) Coastal Zone, it has the potential to be vulnerable to seasonal tropical storms. While the Parish is higher in elevation, flooding potential exists along drainage corridors due to existing low elevations. Approximately 19.9% of the Parish is within a Special Flood Hazard Area. BEAUREGARD PARISH 100 YEAR FLOOD ZONE
The lack of residential housing type diversity is a leading indicator in the difficulties in attracting new population within the Parish. While interviewing local community leaders, it was learned that there is a current need for high-quality housing units other than single family detached structures. Along with the current demand and the expectation of new industry in the Region, housing type diversity needs to be expanded. Housing type diversity is a key element for the Parish to posture itself in a positive manner for future growth. This is not accomplished overnight as it will require a collaborative effort between the Parish and its municipalities to provide the framework that is attractive for developers and future residents. If no action is taken, then development will occur in an unplanned manner adding strain to existing infrastructure and resources resulting in lost opportunities for community improvements and economic growth. The future growth and development of Beauregard Parish should be planned in a sustainable manner that complements the existing environmental conditions and available infrastructure while adhering to resiliency strategies. Generally, the available utility, transportation, cultural, and social infrastructure has been provided around the City of DeRidder. Utilization of the available infrastructure within this community should be a key focus of the implementation strategy.
LAND DEVELOPMENT CODE REVIEW Beauregard Parish is similar to other rural parishes with a low population density in that it does not have a land use master plan or zoning restrictions. Beauregard does have a Subdivision Regulations Ordinance that details drainage design criteria and the approval process; however, the drainage design criteria does not address analyzing potential adverse impact to adjacent properties. ZONE AE - 100 Year Flood Plain With Base Flood Elevation ZONE A - 100 Year Flood Plain With No Base Flood Elevation 41
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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BEAUREGARD PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | BEAUREGARD PARISH
LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
Subsection Title
The subdivision approval process for Beauregard Parish is comparable to other populated and developed areas. In other words, the subdivision approval process is well-suited to accommodate more frequent development activities should they happen in the future. The land development process requires submitting: a preliminary plat and approvals from utility companies, water districts, and the DHH sanitarian to the Road and Bridge Committee. The Road and Bridge Committee then makes a recommendation for approval or disapproval to the Police Jury. The Police Jury then reviews the proposed development during a public meeting. If approved by the Police Jury, the applicant prepares construction plans that must be submitted and approved by the Road and Bridge Committee. The last step after the Road and Bridge Committee review and recommendation is for the construction plans to be reviewed by the Police Jury. Upon their review and approval, the developer may proceed with site construction.
BEAUREGARD PARISH LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Approval from: • Service providing Utility Companies • Service providing Water District • DHH Sanitarian
Property owner or developer submits Preliminary Plat to Road and Bridge Committee
Road and Bridge Committee makes recommendation for approval or disapproval
Police Jury disapproval
Beauregard Parish is not at risk for tidal storm surge related flooding. Therefore, the stricter building codes that Cameron Parish and some parts of Calcasieu Parish use to mitigate damage due to wave action during a storm event do not apply to Beauregard Parish. Beauregard Parish is similar to the other Southwest Louisiana Parishes in that the minimum finished floor elevation is required to be set to at least an elevation equal to the 100 year base flood elevation. The lone exception is Calcasieu Parish where minimum finished floor elevation is required to be at least 1 foot above the 100 year flood elevation.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Police Jury review during public meeting
Police Jury approval
Construction plans submitted to Road and Bridge Committee
Police Jury disapproval
Police Jury review of construction plans during public meeting
Police Jury approval
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
Proceed with construction
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BEAUREGARD PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | BEAUREGARD PARISH
LAND DEVELOPMENT ORDINANCE RECOMMENDATIONS
Subsection Title
Historically, there has been minimal land development activity in the unincorporated portion of Beauregard Parish. However, updating ordinances to plan for growth prior to an increase in development activity should be considered to ensure that Beauregard Parish can protect the overall character of the area. Doing so would also provide an opportunity to implement resiliency concepts such as adding freeboard to the minimum finished floor elevations and require post developed runoff rates to be limited to pre-developed runoff rates.
UPDATING THE ORDINANCES TO SHAPE GROWTH PRIOR TO AN INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONSIDERED TO ENSURE THAT BEAUREGARD PARISH CAN PROTECT THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF THE AREA.
RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL The residential suitability model for Beauregard Parish is aimed at infill and fringe development for larger residential projects that have reasonable access to basic services, infrastructure, and desirable community amenities. This model is a tool and starting point to determine where potential and suitable areas for development can occur. It is not a substitute for the due diligence process. Development of the residential suitability model comprised many layers and data sets. Each of the data sets were given values in order to conduct a composite score analysis. Composite scores ranged from .093 (low suitability) to 9.45 (high suitability). The core components of the residential suitability model include the following: • Aerial imagery; • Existing land cover classifications; • Transportation corridors; • Existing topographic elevations; • Emergency preparedness such as fire, police, and health care locations;
One specific recommendation to the land development ordinance is to require the finished floor elevations of structures to be higher than, rather than equal to, the highest of the following criteria: the 100 year base flood elevation, the nearest sanitary sewer manhole, the centerline of adjacent roadway, or maximum recorded inundation. Adding this requirement to ordinances increases a community’s insurance rating, which reduces flood insurance premiums and decreases the risk for a structure to be flooded.
• Proximity to DEQ air permitted emission locations;
Another recommendation for Beauregard Parish is to include an ordinance that would protect the available floodplain storage volume. This type of ordinance is commonly referred to as “floodplain fill mitigation” because it will require a developer to mitigate, or offset, filling an area with dirt that previously held water during a flooding event.
• Proximity to water and wastewater infrastructure.
• FEMA Firm flood plain locations; • Historical records of inundation from Hurricanes Rita and Ike; • Proximity to community facilities such as schools, churches, cemeteries, post offices, libraries, shopping centers, grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies; and
BEAUREGARD PARISH RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL
RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAKE PARISH INFRASTRUCTURE MORE RESILIENT (MITIGATE RISKS OF PUBLICLY FUNDED INFRASTRUCTURE, SPEED UP REBUILDING IN CORRECT PLACES) DUE TO HURRICANES AND HURRICANE INDUCED FLOODING Beauregard Parish has the opportunity to steer growth to those areas most appropriate for development. This would require creating a master land use plan that considers avoiding areas that are more prone to flooding. After the land use plan is prepared, specific resiliency principles can be designated to the various land use categories. The suitability model and PRAD analysis that follows provides a quantitative analysis of the physical and socioeconomic characteristics of the Parish.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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BEAUREGARD PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Subsection Title
Beauregard Parish scored well (High Suitability) in locations around existing communities. Due to the vastness of the local agricultural industry, lack of rural amenity clustering, and large areas within Special Flood Hazard Areas, the remaining areas of the Parish scored lower (Low Suitability).
Resiliency Analysis | BEAUREGARD PARISH
CITY OF DERIDDER PRAD MODEL
The City of DeRidder rated highest in the Residential Suitability Model. Many other portions of the parish did not score as well due to lack of basic amenities like shopping and restaurants. The services and amenities in DeRidder also serve many of the smaller communities throughout the Parish. With widespread distribution of services and amenities within its urbanized area, the potential residential area of development analysis for DeRidder shows considerable opportunity for infill development.
With an even distribution of services and amenities within its urbanized area, the potential residential area of development analysis for DeRidder shows considerable opportunity for infill development.
Other areas that scored positively in the suitability model include the LA Hwy 27 and U.S. 171 corridors. The U.S. 171 corridor, including the areas of Longville and Ragley is quite interesting from a development perspective. The rural, but somewhat suburban nature of the area, combined with the relative proximity to employment centers in Calcasieu Parish, has the potential to attract people willing to commute to work in order to maintain a rural lifestyle. This trend must be monitored over the next few years as development activity could intensify creating additional demand for the area.
A further analysis within the Parish was conducted to identify potential areas for residential development within the areas of DeRidder. The models are referred to as Potential Residential Areas of Development (PRAD). The components of the PRAD utilized GIS layers which include criteria of suitable land types from the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers (excluding areas of wetlands, already developed, and flood zone). These data areas fall within or intersect areas that score between 6.7 and 9.45 on the Existing Infrastructure and Community Amenity Core Residential Suitability Model. The four subcategories of potential utility availability are defined: • PRAD with water and sewer; • PRAD with water and no sewer; • PRAD with sewer and no water; and • PRAD with no water and no sewer. These PRADs and their subcategories are subsequently intersected with two additional models to highlight areas that are within an ideal drive time target of 8 to 22 minutes to the projects providing the majority of new direct employment in the Region and those areas that provide favorable public schooling (with capacity) throughout all grade levels. A PRAD layer for areas in urbanized zones that scored well on the core model and were classified as “Woody Wetlands” by the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers is available to note areas that need further investigation. These areas should be given consideration as urban habitat zones, municipal parks, recreation, or residential developments depending on the site conditions.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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BEAUREGARD PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Subsection Title
Resiliency Analysis | BEAUREGARD PARISH
IDENTIFY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS The type of programs that would be best suited for water and sanitary sewer improvements are:
Clean Water State Revolving Loan Program This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for new or upgraded wastewater facilities. The loan term is typically 20 years with interest rates that are less than 1%. The program requires an application to LDEQ. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDEQ website is: http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/portal/tabid/2148/Default.aspx
The PRAD analysis indicates that there are some areas around the incorporated areas that do not have access to existing water and/or sanitary sewer. This is not to be interpreted as not having enough capacity, it just simply means that there are no utility lines at these sites. This is not uncommon as developers are typically required to install the additional lines as needed to connect to the town’s existing water and sanitary sewer systems. One recommendation to spur growth in desired areas is to make investments in water, sewer, and road infrastructure before development activity takes place.
INVESTMENT INTO REHABILITATION OF WATER AND SEWER LINES WILL BE REQUIRED, IN ADDITION TO MODERNIZATION AND RELIABILITY UPGRADES AT TREATMENT PLANTS.
It is also important to recognize that the suitability and PRAD analysis take into account a variety of factors regarding housing choice including proximity to work, commercial/retail access, distance to schools, etc. Given the overall rural character of Beauregard Parish, many of the factors that result in lower suitability scores are precisely the qualities that make the more rural areas of Beauregard Parish attractive for development. The challenge for local leadership will become clear as growth opportunities present themselves and choices must be made between developing highly suitable areas in or adjacent to communities or developing outside of existing communities maintaining the small-town, rural feel of the Parish.
Drinking Water Revolving Loan Fund This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (LDHH) and provides low interest loans to communities for construction of new or upgraded water treatment facilities. The program requires an application to LDHH. The selection process is competitive and awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDHH website is: http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/index.cfm/page/431/n/285
Water and Waste Disposal Loans and Grants This program is administered by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The program uses a revolving loan fund for water and waste disposal systems in rural areas and towns with populations of 10,000 or less. It is a continual application process with applications submitted to USDA State and local RDA Offices. The link to the USDA website is: http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/UWP-dispdirectloansgrants.htm
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The suitability analysis and PRAD illustrations are incorporated into the online SWLA Alliance Housing & Community Development Portal as a Map Tool. Greater evaluation and due diligence as well as coordination with local government is highly recommended for developers prior to implementing or purchasing property for future development.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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BEAUREGARD PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | BEAUREGARD PARISH
Subsection Title LJP
All of these funding sources are in the form of loans. It is incumbent on the borrower to develop a revenue stream large enough to meet the debt service requirements. Typically the revenue comes in the form of user fees or taxes. These programs do have the benefit of minimizing the upfront capital contribution which makes it easier to finance larger capital improvements. Caution must be exercised to ensure that the improvement projects undertaken have a useful life at least as long as the duration of the debt service in order to justify the extended payback period. The type of programs that are best suited for transportation improvements are:
State Capital Outlay Each year, the Louisiana Legislature reviews and prioritizes requests from local governments regarding capital projects. The amount of funding varies and funds can be awarded through cash funding, future bond funding, or future lines of credit (based upon assigned Funding Priority). Sewer and transportation projects are frequently funded through this manner. All approved projects are administered by the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control. The link to the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control website is: http://www.doa.louisiana.gov/FPC/fpcSiteIndex.htm#CapitalOutlay
Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) DOTD is the primary agency charged with maintaining and improving the State Highway System. Many of the projects listed above are on state routes. DOTD has a Statewide Transportation Improvement Program, or STIP. This program prioritizes projects to receive state and federal funding. Projects range from capacity improvements by adding lanes to simple safety projects consisting of shoulders, rumble strips, signage, etc. The DOTD also has a “Road Transfer Program” whereby ownership of a current state route is transferred to a local government in exchange for DOTD agreeing to undertake a priority project with a value equal to the present value of 30 years future maintenance on the road being transferred. In other words, the local government is able to fund a current project by accepting a long term maintenance liability. The link to the DOTD website is: http://wwwsp.dotd.la.gov/Inside_LaDOTD/Divisions/Multimodal/STIP/Pages/default.aspx
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Bond Initiative Local governments are able to bond either general fund or special purpose revenue in order to fund capital improvement projects. Future tax revenues are pledged in order to receive a one-time lump sum to fund projects. Interest is paid on the principal balance based on the terms of the bond.
The link to the State Bond Commission website is: http://www.treasury.state.la.us/Home%20Pages/BondCommission.aspx?@Filter=BC2011
Economic Development Assistance Grants The Economic Development Administration (EDA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce offers funding opportunities for which infrastructure projects may be eligible. The Economic Development Assistance Program (EDAP) grants made assist to leverage regional assets to support the implementation of regional economic development strategies designed to create jobs, leverage private capital, encourage economic development, and strengthen America’s ability to compete in the global marketplace. Funding is contingent upon upcoming fiscal year budget allocations. The link to the EDA website is: http://www.eda.gov/funding-opportunities/
Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) The Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program under the U.S. department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is a flexible program that provides communities with resources to address a wide range of unique community development needs. The CDBG program works to ensure decent affordable housing, to provide services to the most vulnerable in our communities, and to create jobs through the expansion and retention of businesses. CDBG is an important tool for helping local governments tackle serious challenges facing their communities. The link to the HUD website is: http://por tal.hud.gov/hudpor tal/HUD?src=/program_offices/comm_planning/ communitydevelopment/programs
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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BEAUREGARD PARISH
Market Analysis | BEAUREGARD PARISH
Market Analysis
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING RENTALS
DEMAND DRIVERS Two major factors driving the Beauregard Parish economy and demand in the housing market are the location of Fort Polk and the timber industry. The proximity to Toledo Bend is also influential, but less so as it relates to housing. Lumbering and wood manufacturing, as well as specialty chemical companies are the primary industries in Beauregard Parish. The Parish is also popular for its woodlands, lakes and waterways. These attributes draw hunting and fishing enthusiasts to the area.
DEMAND MODEL In order to predict what future demand may be, a statistical model was developed to help analyze historical trends, socioeconomic conditions, and future economic activity. In very simplistic terms, the model describes the most likely population scenario for the area assuming future behavior mimics the last five years. Because of this, the model should be only one of the tools leaders use to inform decisions. It is by no means a deterministic predictor of the future. NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS ESTIMATED SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PRICE
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $100,000
0
9
11
11
12
9
11
9
11
9
9
$100,001 to $125,000
0
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
$125,001 to $175,000
0
6
8
8
9
7
8
6
8
6
$175,001 to $225,000
0
5
6
6
7
5
6
5
6
$225,001 to $300,000
0
3
4
4
5
4
4
4
> $300,000
0
4
5
5
6
4
5
TOTAL
0
29
37
37
42
32
36
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
0
5
5
5
6
4
5
4
5
4
4
$601 to $800
0
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
$801 to $1,000
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
$1,001 to $1,500
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
0
10
11
9
11
8
10
8
11
8
9
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
0
4
5
4
5
3
4
4
5
3
4
$601 to $800
0
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
$801 to $1,000
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
$1,001 to $1,500
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
0
9
9
8
10
7
9
7
9
7
8
MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (2-4 UNITS)
Low density rental demand, both single family and multi-family, is expected to be steady in Beauregard Parish. The demand is evenly distributed among the price points. The actual demand is likely to shift into whatever price range units are available, given the scarcity of rental units and the low vacancy rates. MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (>4 UNITS)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
0
13
11
6
9
4
8
6
9
5
6
7
$601 to $800
0
6
5
3
4
2
3
3
4
2
3
5
5
$801 to $1,000
0
3
3
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
4
3
4
$1,001 to $1,500
0
3
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
4
5
4
4
> $1,500
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
37
29
32
TOTAL
0
25
21
13
17
9
15
11
18
10
13
The modeled demand for single family housing shows demand for housing at each price point. Considering the median household income is $45,202, about $5,000 less than the national average, this is a surprising result. It may be difficult for the market to meet the demand in the lower price ranges without some sort of assistance or incentive. The housing development market may have difficulty meeting the higher priced levels of demand.
53
2014
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
The high density multi-family market is expected to see a continual growth and then a continual decline of the same rate after a period of 5 years. This decline could come from people settling in Beauregard Parish or leaving the Parish. With the vast amount of military personnel residing at Fort Polk, it is likely that many will be transferred to other military bases. There is also the possibility of incoming members of the military to be stationed at Fort Polk for an extended amount of time.
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
54
BEAUREGARD PARISH
DeRidder Pull-Out Subsection Title Plan OVERVIEW The City of DeRidder is located in the northern part of the Parish. Major transportation corridors include LA Hwy 190 and U.S. 171/27. Located at the Parish boundary with Vernon Parish, DeRidder is approximately a 20-minute drive to Fort Polk, a US Army installation. DeRidder was named after a family member of a Dutch railroad investor as the railway came to the area in 1902. During the early part of the 20th Century the City of DeRidder prospered as a rural hub for the logging industry. Once the vast forests of the long leaf pine were removed, workers and their families left the DeRidder area in search of more promising opportunities.
DeRidder Pull-Out Plan | BEAUREGARD PARISH
ARCHITECTURE According to the 2010 US Census, there are approximately 4,634 housing units in DeRidder. Approximately 4,161 units are occupied (either owner or renter) and approximately 473 are vacant. The majority of the housing units are single family residential (attached and detached) structures. To gain an understanding of existing housing types in DeRidder, one must have a general understanding of home construction in the United States during the last century. A detailed summary of American Housing 1900 – 2000 can be viewed in Appendix A. Since the City of DeRidder and Beauregard Parish exist in a rural setting, most homes were built with little to no code requirements as structures were built to meet housing needs and construction was performed in numerous methods and with available materials. Structures built from the 1900s to the 1950s were built with less than 1,000 square feet, typically one to two-stories in height with two or three bedrooms and 0 to 1 bathroom. Foundations were typically wooden beam construction or brick pillars with a wooden floor creating a crawl space above the existing grade. Even though housing standards were developed as early as the 1920s, federal housing codes were first introduced in 1949 as home construction was standardized with new materials and techniques. Home construction in the 1960s to the 1980s included wooden frame construction on concrete slabs and incorporated carports as the norm for protecting vehicles from outside conditions. House sizes increased during this timeframe as well to accommodate for larger families and greater amenities.
FROM THE 1990s TO 2008, NEW HOUSING STARTS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE NATION AS FAMILY INCOMES INCREASED AND HOMEOWNERSHIP FINANCING DIVERSIFIED AND BECAME ACCESSIBLE TO A GREATER NUMBER OF QUALIFYING HOMEOWNERS.
In the 1940s, DeRidder prospered with the establishment of the USO GI recreational complex as approximately 89,000 soldiers visited the off base facility. The USO building is now utilized as a community civic center and serves as a tourist attraction containing historic memorabilia from the WWII era.
55
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
From the 1990s to 2008, new housing starts increased dramatically across the nation as family incomes increased and homeownership financing diversified and became accessible to a greater number of qualifying homeowners. Residential structures grew in size averaging over 2,000 square feet with a minimum of two bathrooms and three bedrooms. Enclosed garages were also common if not expected with new construction.
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, Plan and | SWLA Implementation ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Strategy | SWLA ALLIANCE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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DeRidder Pull-Out Plan | BEAUREGARD PARISH Subsection Title | SECTION TITLE
BEAUREGARD PARISH | DeRidder Pull-Out Plan SECTION TITLE
Subsection Title The age of the current housing stock within the city suggests that home maintenance/repair is going to become more intensive in the coming years.
LJP
Within the City of DeRidder, the majority of the housing stock is within the range of 25 to 50 years in age. Between 2008 and 2011, there have been a total of 132 building permits issued. It is unknown at this time what percentage is new construction versus repair/renovation/additions to existing structures. The age of the current housing stock within the City suggests that home maintenance and repair is going to become more intensive in the coming years.
DEMOGRAPHICS DeRidder is the Parish seat of Beauregard Parish and the center of the DeRidder Micropolitan Area. The July 1, 2013 estimated population of DeRidder was 10,793 residents.6 From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, the City gained 215 residents and accounted for nearly half of the growth in Beauregard Parish. The incremental growth observed from 2010 to 2013 is projected to continue through 2024. Between 2014 and 2024, DeRidder is projected to gain 657 residents, representing a 6% rate of growth over the 10 year time period.7 The city is projected to gain 212 children (people age 0-17). Working-age adults age 18 to 64 will decline by 243 residents. In addition, the retirement-age population, 65 and over, is projected to increase by 202 residents. This level of growth across all age ranges is important because the demand for age specific services, such as public schools, will remain uniform over time.
In terms of race and ethnicity, the majority of DeRidder is Nonhispanic White (57.0%).8 Nonhispanic African Americans comprise 33.0% of the population. Hispanic residents account for 4.5% of the population. Compared to Beauregard Parish, DeRidder is a more racially and ethnically diverse population. Over the next decade, Nonhispanic African Americans will likely comprise a larger share of the population. This trend is due in part to race and ethnic group differences in rates of fertility. Although the economic development projects in the Region will have little impact on the City of DeRidder, the current population trends will generate moderate growth over the next decade. Housing statistics indicate that the City has a vacancy rate equivalent to the State average among owner occupied homes—2.0% for DeRidder compared to 2.0% for Louisiana.9 Rental vacancy rates are lower than the statewide average—6.3% for DeRidder compared to 8.4% for Louisiana. The relatively low vacancy rate may point to the need for additional rental housing units. Given the average rate of vacancy for owner occupied units, DeRidder may benefit from the addition of a limited number of single family units marketed to homeowners. However, the greater housing need may be for rentals. At present only 60.5% of housing units in DeRidder are owner occupied. This is below the State average of 67.4%.
Population growth from proposed regional economic development activities will likely have no noticeable impact on DeRidder. In terms of households, new population growth from employment is expected to result in new households moving to DeRidder by 2024. These projections suggest that regional development efforts will not stress the social and economic system of the Parish. The primary reason for the nominal impact is because DeRidder is located in the northern part of Beauregard Parish and not proximate to the jobs primarily located in Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes. _______________________________________ 6 July 1, 2013 Population Estimate, U.S. Census Bureau 7 Population Projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC 57
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
_______________________________________ 8 2010 Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau 9 2008-2012 American Community Survey Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan Plan, and | SWLA Implementation ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Strategy | SWLA ALLIANCE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
58
BEAUREGARD PARISH
Supply Analysis | BEAUREGARD PARISH
Given the rural nature of the area, it is likely that other homes are listed for sale, either through real estate agents not using MLS or the homes are for sale by owner. The relative scarcity of available homes has the ability to inhibit the growth of the City, considering the amount of transactions in the area over the last four years.
Supply Analysis Construction activity has been somewhat low recently in DeRidder – which is surprising considering the City has grown by around 700 people since the year 2000. The Parish of Beauregard provided permitting data from October 2012 to October 2014. During that time the following permits were issued, mostly in the DeRidder area:
372
171
0
Manufactured/Mobile Homes
Single Family Homes
Multi-Family Homes
The higher ratio of manufactured homes to single family homes is common in rural areas of Louisiana. Manufactured homes in rural areas are typically located on larger tracts of land. Oftentimes, the land is inhabited by multiple related families. In many cases, mobile homes are an interim solution until a custom home can be built. This could indicate a demand for low cost living or the increasing difficulty for borrowers to obtain single family construction financing. Real estate MLS reports indicate a moderate level of activity. Since November 2011, there have been 611 recorded sales in the MLS system. Currently there are 256 homes listed for sale in the MLS system, ranging in price from $25,000 - $329,000 and one home listed at $975,000 being the outlier. Listings and previous
Even when considering the mild growth projections for Beauregard Parish and the City of DeRidder, a moderate amount of new housing will be necessary over the next decade. The existing supply of available housing is not sufficient enough to meet the needs of overall demand in the area. If this situation is not addressed, the potential consequences include an increase in the overall rent-stress level of the residents in Beauregard Parish. In order to make sure that the housing market within the Parish and the City of DeRidder remains stable, new homes must be constructed. Using the PRAD on page 47 as a guide, the concentration of new homes should be located in DeRidder closer to the northern part of the Parish and Fort Polk. This area is heavily populated with military personnel and their families. It is expected that most new growth will occur in the northern part of the Parish. Model demand forecasts are as follows: ANNUAL NEW HOUSING DEMAND - BEAUREGARD PARISH 90 80
sales are depicted in the figure below. Active listings are shown in red and previous sales are yellow.
70
BEAUREGARD PARISH MLS SALES ACTIVITY HOUSING UNITS
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
YEAR
59
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
60
BEAUREGARD PARISH | Supply Analysis
NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES NEEDED - BEAUREGARD PARISH 200 100
NUMBER OF NEW HOMES
80
60
40
20 0
$0-$100K
$101-$125K
$126-$175K
$176-$225K
$226-$300K
> $300K
PURCHASE PRICE
NEW RENTAL UNITS NEEDED - BEAUREGARD PARISH 180
NUMBER OF NEW RENTAL UNITS - ALL TYPES
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
$0-$600
$601-$800
$801-$1,000
$1,001-$1,500
> $1,500
MONTHLY RENT
61
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
62
BEAUREGARD PARISH
Implementation Strategy Subsection Title Beauregard Parish is expected to see some demands for growth. Those demands are likely going to be concentrated at the southern end of the Parish due to the relative proximity to new job centers. The northern end of the Parish, and specifically DeRidder, is more heavily influenced by Fort Polk and existing industry than new petrochemical jobs. Given the paradoxical growth projections, strategies for housing need to recognize the differing demands. In both cases, it is important that new housing starts be located in areas that are supported by infrastructure and service capacity. It is also critical that the quality of life enjoyed by current residents, whether rural or urban, be protected and enhanced. The southern half of the Parish in particular the U.S. 171 corridor south of Ragley will continue to be one of the first locations potential new residents will look at as a possible area to reside due to the close proximity to the regional economic development projects. Remaining areas in the Parish are just as important and need to be part of any future planning efforts. The following are recommended objectives and implementation strategies for Beauregard Parish leaders to consider:
Implementation Strategy | BEAUREGARD PARISH
ENCOURAGE GROWTH WHILE PROTECTING QUALITY OF LIFE xx Develop a citizen-driven community land use master plan that establishes the following: - Vision for future; - Identification of suitable areas of growth; - Development of a land use plan that balances growth with existing rural small town ambiance; - Establishes clear regulations regarding the subdividing of large tracts of land and the housing types allowable for differing tracts; - Determination if temporary housing is desirable for southern Beauregard Parish, and if so, communicate that to potential logging companies; and - Identification of infill housing opportunities (rentals and ownership) in and around DeRidder to accommodate demand from Ft. Polk.
INCREASE BEAUREGARD PARISH’S VISIBILITY TO POTENTIAL RESIDENTS xx Develop a marketing campaign to target potential new residents. The marketing campaign to include: - Promotion of outdoor activities and the natural beauty of the Parish; - Local festivals and events; - Arts, cultural, and historic sites; and - Successes and available programs within the Beauregard Parish public school system. xx Collaborate with local and regional real estate sales and development organizations to encourage the tracking of listings and sales of all residential and commercial properties including MLS listing, For Sale By Owner, and non-profit organizations.
ENSURE GROWTH IS SUPPORTED BY INFRASTRUCTURE xx Establish a community stakeholder committee (residents and business owners) to conduct a strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis for attracting economic development opportunities. Areas of assessment may include: - Development codes and regulations, permitting process; - Infrastructure (transportation, utilities, public services, emergency preparedness); and - Current business climate within municipalities and Parish. xx Improve water system infrastructure in the southern end of the Parish to prepare for growth and incentivize it to suitable locations. xx Encourage community and Parish leaders to lobby regional telecommunications providers to develop plans for extending high-speed internet service along main transportation corridors.
63
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
64 LJP
“
I am very thankful to have been a part of this process. It is critical that we, as community leaders, take the initiative to create a vision for our future. Taking a proactive approach is key. I feel very strongly that we can’t sit back and wait for things to happen. If we do - it will be too late. The time to act is now. Growth will occur and we must shape the direction it takes.
”
65
Misty Clanton Director of Community Services City of DeRidder
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
CALCASIEU PARISH — Calcasieu Parish is located in the southwest corner of the state, just north of Cameron Parish and west of Jefferson Davis Parish. The western boundary of the Parish is along the Sabine River which serves as a state boundary with Texas.
LJP
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
CALCASIEU PARISH
Housing Strategic Plan | CALCASIEU PARISH
Calcasieu Parish Housing Strategic Plan INTRODUCTION Calcasieu Parish is located in the southwest corner of the state, just north of Cameron Parish and west of Jefferson Davis Parish. The western boundary of the Parish is along the Sabine River which serves as a state boundary with Texas. According to the US Census, Calcasieu has the largest population in SWLA with a July 1, 2013 estimated population of 195,296 residents. Calcasieu Parish is also the seventh largest parish in land area within the State.1 SW LOUISIANA REGIONAL MAP
Parish will grow within all age groups. Consequently, the need for a variety of housing types at various price points will be pronounced. The Calcasieu Parish educational system has consistently rated as one of the top districts in SWLA and within the top tier of the State. In 2014, out of the 71 school districts in Louisiana, Calcasieu Parish School District ranked 21st with a performance score of 94.2 and received a “B” letter grade. The performance ranking has improved every year since 2008. McNeese State University, established in 1939, provides opportunities for post-secondary education and has a long-standing tradition of service to the SWLA community. SOWELA Technical community college is a SACS accredited college of the Louisiana Community & Technical College System which offers associate’s degrees, technical programs, and certifications. The educational system offerings and successes are attractive to residents and visitors which are factors for economic development in the region.
CURRENT TRENDS From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, the parish gained 2,528 residents. The vast majority of the gain was due to natural increase—the number of births minus the number of deaths. Calcasieu Parish made a small population gain through the net in-migration of residents from other areas. Calcasieu Parish gained 117 more residents moving into the parish than leaving the parish. The growth trend observed from 2010 to 2013 is projected to continue through 2024 and that is before the economic development projects are considered! Between 2014 and 2024, Calcasieu Parish is projected to gain 10,082 residents.2 This includes the addition of 2,150 children age 0-17 and the addition of 8,644 residents age 65 and over. Working age adults, age 18 to 64, will decline by 712 residents. The impact of the economic development successes in the region will be explored in the next section. This growth reflects the demographic future of the parish— assuming that current population trends remain constant.
CALCASIEU PARISH HISTORICAL POPULATION 200,000 192,768
167,223 145,475
150,000
67
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
100,000
89,635 62,767 56,506
41,963
50,000 30,428
With the realization of new economic development within SWLA, regional development efforts will be required to meet key demands on a variety of services including education and health care. Given the ongoing growth trends and added growth from economic development, the population of Calcasieu _______________________________________ 1 July 1, 2013 Population Estimate, U.S. Census Bureau
168,134 145,415
POPULATION
Calcasieu Parish’s historical economic base has been rooted in the petrochemical, refining, public service, gaming, maritime, aviation, and oilfield support industries. The petrochemical and oil refining industries continue to lead the economic development for the parish with expansion and modernization of existing operations. These industries have been served by the three major transportation networks (vehicular, rail, and water). Major vehicular corridors include Interstate 10 and Hwy 90 (east-west) and Hwy 27 and U.S. 171 (north-south). Rail line corridors include Union Pacific Railway, BNSF, and Kansas City Southern. The Calcasieu River provides access to several industries in the Lake Charles Region before the Saltwater Barrier located north of Interstate 10.
183,577
32,807
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YEAR _______________________________________ Population Projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC
2
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
68
CALCASIEU PARISH | Housing Strategic Plan
Housing Strategic Plan | CALCASIEU PARISH
POPULATION IMPACT FROM REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
Subsection Title
OVERALL ANNUAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
197,204
198,256
204,494
209,235
213,450
213,013
214,080
213,974
215,721
218,415
219,406
Population projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC
The Calcasieu Ship Channel is the hub of an unprecedented level of economic development activity. This indicates that the current population trends are unlikely to remain constant. The projected employment and population growth from regional economic development activities will be significantly larger than the level of current growth and is likely to have a significant impact on the long-term demography of Calcasieu Parish.
LJP
Population projections suggest that due to economic development alone, Calcasieu Parish will add 5,196 residents by 2016 and a total of 12,488 by 2024.3 Given that new migrants to the area will be younger, working-age adults, the influx of population will more than offset the decline in working-age noted above. In addition, many new migrants will arrive to the region with school-age children or younger children, which will add to the projected growth in the 0-17 age group. In terms of households, a total of 2,070 new households are expected to move to Calcasieu Parish by 2016 and a total of 4,975 households are projected to be added to the population by 2024.
The Calcasieu Ship Channel is the hub of an unprecedented level of economic development activity.
THE POPULATION OF CALCASIEU PARISH WILL GROW WITHIN ALL AGE GROUPS AND THE NEED FOR HOUSING OF ALL TYPES WILL BE GREAT.
These projections suggest that regional development efforts will create key demands on a variety of services including education and health care. Given the ongoing growth trends and added growth from economic development, the population of Calcasieu Parish will grow within all age groups and the need for housing of all types will be great. Moreover, the median age of Calcasieu Parish residents is likely to decline due to the young age of new migrants to the area. These changes have important impacts on the need to attract additional retail and services marketed to a younger population.
69
LJP
LJP
growth will not result in a major shift in the race and ethnic composition of the parish. Similar to other metropolitan areas, the growth in population will lead to an increase in race and ethnic diversity.
In terms of race and ethnicity, the majority of Calcasieu Parish is Non-Hispanic White (68.9%).4 NonHispanic African Americans comprise 24.9% of the population. Hispanic residents account for 2.9% percent of the population. Although the economic development efforts projected to impact this region will result in a relatively large number of migrants from other regions, the absolute size of the population
The projections listed here, and the anticipated employment growth due to the megaprojects slated to develop in the region, suggest that the parish will grow rapidly. Housing statistics indicate that the parish has a low vacancy rate among owner occupied homes—1.8% for Calcasieu Parish compared to 2.0% for Louisiana.5 Rental vacancy rates are close to the statewide average—9.7% for Calcasieu Parish compared to 8.4% for Louisiana. This combination of trends leads to a clear conclusion that new housing units will be needed to satisfy demand.
_______________________________________ 3 Projections of the location of new population due to new employment from the SWLA Regional Impact Study 4 July 1, 2013 Population Estimates by Age, Race, Sex, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. Census Bureau
_______________________________________ 5 2008-2012 American Community Survey
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
Resiliency Analysis LAND DEVELOPMENT
LJP
Recent land development and sales activity within Calcasieu Parish has been concentrated in three primary areas—Carlyss, Moss Bluff, and South Lake Charles. These three unincorporated areas account for 43% of the listings and 45% of the sales in 2013 and 20146. The rapid growth and development has strained local infrastructure and service capacity. The future growth and development of Calcasieu Parish should be planned in a sustainable manner that complements the existing environmental conditions and available infrastructure while adhering to resiliency strategies. Generally the available utility, transportation, cultural, and social infrastructure has been provided around existing municipalities. There is a substantial cost to continued sprawl in the unincorporated areas. One example is the cost of regional sewer. In April 2014, The Calcasieu Parish Police Jury proposed an initial $110M investment into establishing the backbone of a regional system. This initial investment would establish additional wastewater collection infrastructure in fast-developing areas of the Parish. The cost of running smaller interceptor and collector lines from the arterial system would likely be hundreds of millions more than the initial investment. This effort was unfortunately rejected by a vote of the people. Parish leaders should continue to improve or increase waste water capacity by continuing to reach out to the public for support or continue the effort by other means.
LAND DEVELOPMENT CODE REVIEW - UNINCORPORATED CALCASIEU PARISH Calcasieu Parish has a zoning ordinance for the unincorporated areas that defines different zoning districts. The Calcasieu Parish Police Jury (CPPJ) zoning ordinance for the unincorporated portion of Calcasieu Parish addresses allowable land uses for various districts for residential, manufactured homes, commercial, and industrial uses.
Residential Zoning Districts The ordinances for the different residential zoning districts describe minimum lot sizes and density limitations based on desired methods for sanitary sewer treatment and availability of public water. For example, a development in the Single Family Zoning District can have lots as small as 7,500 square feet if it has a private community sewer system or can connect to the pubic sewer system if the development is within the Urban Service Area. Lower densities and/or larger minimum lot sizes are required if either private sewer or water is used to support the development.
Drainage Ordinance The CPPJ drainage ordinance is thorough in describing the procedures and methods for the drainage technical design and standards for development. The ordinance specifies requirements for a Drainage Impact Analysis which is required for all new subdivision developments and all new site developments requiring a building or grading permit. The ordinance also states that fill or structures cannot be placed on or over any portion of a regulatory floodway, coastal high hazard area or areas of special flood hazard or existing watercourse which, alone or cumulatively with other such activities, would
cause or result in a barrier that will adversely affect the efficiency of, or restrict the flow or capacity of, a designated floodway or watercourse so as to cause foreseeable damage to others, wherever located. Floodways are the ditches, channels, bayous, etc. and adjacent land areas that are both needed to move flood waters in order to not increase the flooding upstream.
Floodplain Fill Mitigation The CPPJ ordinance is the only ordinance among the SWLA parishes and cities that addresses adding fill in the flood plain. This type of ordinance is commonly referred to as “floodplain fill mitigation”. This ordinance requires a developer to mitigate, or to offset, filling up an area with dirt that previously held water during a flooding event. However, the CPPJ ordinance exempts situations where fill is required for development roads and building pads as long as the building pad is sloped back to existing ground at a gentle grade. These types of exempt scenarios are very common in development; therefore fill mitigation is not typically required. As a result, the ordinance is not as strong as it could be.
Storm Water Code The CPPJ ordinance also includes storm water standards known as the “Storm Water Code”. The Storm Water Code’s purpose is to protect, maintain, and improve the quality of surface water and groundwater within the Parish. Site development projects must comply with these standards and federal and state laws and regulations applicable to storm water discharges.
Special Flood Hazard Area Although Calcasieu Parish is not directly located on the Gulf of Mexico, a portion of the south-central and southwest corner of the Parish is within the designated Department of Natural Resource Coastal Zone. The proximity of the Calcasieu Lake watershed extending into the southern portion of the Parish exposes the Parish and makes it vulnerable to seasonal tropical storms due to existing low elevations as seen over the past decades. Currently, over 46.9 percent of the parish is within a Special Flood Hazard Area. Calcasieu Parish is a participant in the Community Rating System which gives the citizens a discount on their flood insurance premium. Calcasieu Parish has a Class 8 Rating which save its citizens 10% on flood insurance policies.
_______________________________________ 6 SWLA Association of Realtors MLS Report, 12/1/14 run date 71
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
LAND DEVELOPMENT ORDINANCE - RECOMMENDATIONS
Subsection Title CALCASIEU PARISH 100 YEAR FLOOD ZONE
Recent history indicates that the unincorporated portion of Calcasieu Parish has developed more rapidly than incorporated areas. Updating the ordinances to shape growth before an increase in development activity should be considered to ensure that Calcasieu Parish protects the overall character of the area. Ordinance updates could also include resiliency concepts such as requiring stormwater management practices and drainage plans. Adding requirements into the land ordinances increases a community’s insurance rating, which reduces flood insurance premiums, and decreases the risk for a structure to be flooded.
LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
Two recommendations to the land development ordinance would be to:
CALCASIEU PARISH LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
The subdivision approval process for the unincorporated areas of Calcasieu Parish requires a multi-step review/approval process. This process is independent of the property rezoning process. The subdivision approval process begins with the Applicant submitting a conceptual plan illustrating the proposed roadway and lot layout to the Parish Planning Director. Within 10 days, the Director will render a letter of approval or denial. If approved, the Applicant can proceed with submitting a preliminary plat application to the Director with letters of approvals from utilities companies and a drainage impact study. Within 20 days, the Director will render a letter of approval or denial. If approved, the application is placed on the agenda for a public hearing at the Planning and Zoning Meeting. If approved, the Applicant may proceed with engineering plans and submit them to the Director for approval. The Director approves engineering plans after a 20 day review period. Upon engineering approval, the project can be constructed.
73
Concept Plan is submitted to the Director of Planning and Development for consideration
Applicant submits a Public Director preliminary hearing plat application submits is held at letter of to director Director Planning recomthat includes: submits and Zoning mendation letter of • Drainage meeting. to the approval study Planning Planning or denial • Letter and Zoning and Zoning within 10 from utility Board Board working companies approve within 20 days verifying preliminary working capacity and plat. days intention to provide service
Engineering Plans submitted to Director for approval.
Upon completion of conDirector If struction, approves approved, CPPJ construcsubaccepts tion plans division improvwithin 20 is conments working structed. and plat days. is filed with Clerk of Court.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
• Reduce or eliminate exemptions in the fill mitigation ordinance; and • Regulate runoff rates from developments requiring post development runoff rates to be equal or less than pre-development runoff rates.
RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAKE PARISH INFRASTRUCTURE MORE RESILIENT (MITIGATE RISKS OF PUBLICLY FUNDED INFRASTRUCTURE, SPEED UP REBUILDING IN CORRECT PLACES) DUE TO HURRICANES AND HURRICANE INDUCED FLOODING It would be ideal for Calcasieu Parish to take the initiative to determine which areas it would like to encourage additional development. This would require creating a master land use plan that addresses development criteria in areas that are more prone to flooding. An evaluation of the current zoning plan should also be conducted to confirm if recommended land uses are in sync with existing zoning and to make suggestions for possible zoning changes to align with recommended resiliency principles and strategies. Tracts of land exist within the incorporated cities of Calcasieu Parish that currently have all necessary infrastructure and public services. By clustering development and increasing the overall density within cities (not necessarily changing density requirements), more development is able to be served by existing capacity. Clustered development reduces the need for additional infrastructure and service capacity to accommodate sprawl. Clustering also allows for more timely response in the event of a catastrophe or natural disaster. Encouraging clustered development with incentives should be further researched and discussed within the community. The object is to deemphasize the current trend to develop in areas that do not have infrastructure currently in place. This is often referred to as “greenfield” development as land is typically cheaper on the outskirts of existing developed areas. While the land may be cheaper, it is more expensive to provide infrastructure and services to undeveloped areas. Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL
Subsection Title
CALCASIEU PARISH RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL
The residential suitability model for Calcasieu Parish was aimed at infill and fringe development for larger residential projects that have reasonable access to basic services, infrastructure, and desirable community amenities. This model is a tool and starting point to determine where potential and suitable areas for development can occur. It is not a substitute for the due diligence process.
High Suitability
Development of the residential suitability model comprised many layers and data sets. Each data set was given values in order to conduct a composite score analysis. Composite scores ranged for .093 (low suitability) to 9.45 (high suitability). The core components of the residential suitability model include the following: • Aerial imagery • Existing land cover classifications; • Transportation corridors; • Existing topographic elevations; • Emergency preparedness such as fire, police, and health care locations; • (Calcasieu Parish Only) Education analysis of public school attendance zones, which were ranked by capacity, and school scores; • Proximity to DEQ air permitted emission locations;
Low Suitability
• FEMA Firm flood plain locations; • Historical records of inundation from Hurricane Rita and Ike; • Proximity to community facilities such as schools, churches, cemeteries, post offices, libraries, shopping centers, grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies; and • Proximity to water and wastewater infrastructure; Calcasieu Parish scored well (High Suitability) in locations around existing communities. Due to the vastness of the local agricultural industry, lack of rural amenity clustering, and large areas within Special Flood Hazard Areas, the remaining areas of the Parish scored lower (Low Suitability).
Additional analysis was conducted to identify potential areas for residential development within the areas of Carlyss, DeQuincy, Iowa, Lake Charles, Moss Bluff, Prien, Sulphur, Vinton, and Westlake. The models are referred to as Potential Residential Areas of Development (PRAD). The components of the PRAD utilized GIS layers which include criteria of suitable land types from the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers (excluding areas of wetlands, already developed, and flood zone). These data areas fall within or intersect areas that score between 6.7 and 9.45 on the Existing Infrastructure and Community Amenity Core Residential Suitability Model. The four sub-categories of potential utility access are defined: • PRAD with water and sewer, • PRAD with water and no sewer, • PRAD with sewer and no water, • PRAD with no water and no sewer.
LJP
75
LJP
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
These PRADs and their sub-categories are subsequently intersected with two additional models to highlight areas that are within an ideal drive time target of 8 to 22 minutes to the projects providing the majority of new direct employment in the region and those areas that provide favorable public schooling (with capacity) throughout all grade levels. A PRAD layer for areas in urbanized zones that scored well on the core model and were classified as “Woody Wetlands” by the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers is available to note areas that need further investigation. These areas should be given consideration as urban habitat zones, municipal parks, recreation, or residential developments depending on the site conditions. Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
The PRAD analysis indicates that there are some areas around the incorporated areas that do not have access to existing water and/or sanitary sewer. This is not to be interpreted as not having enough capacity, it simply means that there are no utility lines at these sites. This is not uncommon as developers are typically required to install the additional lines needed to connect to the municipality’s existing water and sanitary sewer systems. A recommendation for municipalities to consider is if they want to encourage growth in a particular area, then they could install the water and sewer lines in advance of development.
Subsection Title
CARLYSS PRAD MODEL
The PRAD analysis may also show areas that are suitable for the development of community amenities and basic services as well as residential. These areas may be suitable for planned unit developments utilizing multiple land uses. The suitability analysis and PRAD illustrations are incorporated into the online SWLA Alliance Housing & Community Development Portal as a Map Tool. Greater evaluation and due diligence as well as coordination with approving jurisdictional bodies is highly recommended for developers prior to developing or purchasing property for future development.
Note: the boundary identified on the Carlyss PRAD model represents the defined urbanized boundary per the 2010 us census data.
CITY OF DEQUINCY PRAD MODEL
LJP
LJP
77
LJP
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
CITY OF IOWA PRAD MODEL
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
MOSS BLUFF PRAD MODEL
Note: The boundary identified on the Moss Bluff PRAD Model represents the defined urbanized boundary per the 2010 US Census data.
CITY OF LAKE CHARLES PRAD MODEL
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
PRIEN PRAD MODEL
Note: The boundary identified on the Prien PRAD Model represents the defined urbanized boundary per the 2010 US Census data.
80
CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
CITY OF SULPHUR PRAD MODEL
CITY OF VINTON PRAD MODEL
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
CITY OF WESTLAKE PRAD MODEL
THE FUTURE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF CALCASIEU PARISH SHOULD BE PLANNED IN A SUSTAINABLE MANNER THAT COMPLEMENTS THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND AVAILABLE INFRASTRUCTURE WHILE ADHERING TO RESILIENCY STRATEGIES.
LJP
LJP
81
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
LJP
LJP
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
IDENTIFY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS
Subsection Title
The unincorporated area of Calcasieu Parish does not have a regional sanitary sewer system. A regional system is very desirable to accommodate future growth while protecting the environment and quality of life. The municipalities have municipal sewer systems. Their existing systems generally have enough capacity to accommodate the projected sewer needs. The exception to this statement is the system owned by the City of Lake Charles. While additional capacity does not exist today, current plants have been built in a scalable fashion. All of the Calcasieu Parish cities have aging systems that will need to be improved and maintained regardless of whether additional capacity demands are manifested. LJP
As Calcasieu Parish grows, traffic congestion will increase. A prioritized list of roadway improvements necessary to accommodate this growth is as follows: ANTICIPATED COSTS (THOUSANDS)
RANK
FY 13
5,500
Under Design - 1
Widening to 5 Lane Arterial
FY 15-24
11,638
2
Westwood/Phillips to West Fork Bridge
Widening to 5 Lane Arterial
FY 25-34
15,382
3
North Loop/LA 378
West Fork Bridge to SPUR 378
Widening to 5 Lane Arterial and Bridge Replacement
FY 15-24
16,934
4
Nelson Rd. Ext.
Avenue L’Auberge to Sallier St.
New 4 Lane Road and Bridge
FY 15-24
43,105
5
LA 1138-2/ Prien Lake Rd.
Lake St. to ¼ mile east of Nelson Rd.
Widen to 5 Lanes
FY 15-24
6,620
6
S Beglis Pkwy.
I-10 to LA 108
Widen 2 to 4 Lanes
FY 25-34
25,226
7
Enterprise Blvd.
Opelousas St. to Fitzenreiter Rd.
New Road
FY 25-34
21,571
8
LA 27
Dave Dugas Rd. to La 108
Widen 2 to 4 Lanes
FY 25-34
12,305
9
J. Bennett Johnston Ave.
Broad St. to Merganser St.
Reconstruction and Center Turn Lane
FY 15-24
12,636
10
PROJECT
EXTENT
IMPROVEMENT
John Stine Rd.
Myrtle Springs Rd. to Sampson St.
Overlay and Widen
North Loop/LA 378
John Stine Rd. to Phillips Rd.
North Loop/LA 378
YEAR
A separate and most important transportation improvement project is an upgrade or replacement of the Interstate 10 bridge across the Calcasieu River. This project will require a significant amount of Federal funding assistance and should be a priority for local, regional, and state leaders to secure Federal assistance.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
IDENTIFY POTENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING SOURCES The type of programs that would be best suited for water and sanitary sewer improvements are:
Clean Water State Revolving Loan Program This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for new or needed upgrades for wastewater facilities. The loan term is typically 20 years with interest rates that are less than 1%. The program requires an application to LDEQ. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually.
The link to the LDEQ website is: http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/portal/tabid/2148/Default.aspx
Drinking Water Revolving Loan Fund This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (LDHH) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for construction of new or needed upgrades of water treatment facilities. The program requires an application to LDHH. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually.
The link to the LDHH website is: http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/index.cfm/page/431/n/285
Water and Waste Disposal Loans and Grants This program is administered by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The program uses a revolving loan fund for water and waste disposal systems in rural areas and towns with populations of 10,000 or less. It is a continual application process with applications submitted to USDA State and local RDA Offices.
The link to the USDA website is: http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/UWP-dispdirectloansgrants.htm All of these funding sources are in the form of loans—it is incumbent on the borrower to develop a revenue stream large enough to meet the debt service requirements. Typically the revenue comes in the form of user fees or taxes. These programs do have the benefit of minimizing the upfront capital contribution which makes it easier to finance larger capital improvements. Caution must be exercised to ensure that the improvement projects undertaken have a useful life at least as long as the duration of the debt service in order to justify the extended payback period. Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
Subsection Title LJP
The type of programs that would be best suited for transportation improvements are:
State Capital Outlay Each year, the Louisiana Legislature reviews and prioritizes requests from local governments regarding capital projects. The amount of funding varies and funds can be awarded as cash funding, future bond funding, or future lines of credit (based upon assigned Funding Priority). Sewer and transportation projects are frequently funded through this manner. All approved projects are administered by the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control.
The link to the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control website is: http://www.doa.louisiana.gov/FPC/fpcSiteIndex.htm#CapitalOutlay
Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) DOTD is the primary agency charged with maintaining and improving the State Highway System. Many of the projects listed above are on state routes. DOTD has a Statewide Transportation Improvement Program, or STIP. This program prioritizes projects to receive state and federal funding. Projects range from capacity improvements by adding lanes to simple safety projects consisting of shoulders, rumble strips, signage, etc. The DOTD also has a “Road Transfer Program” whereby ownership of a current state route is transferred to a local government in exchange for DOTD agreeing to undertake a priority project with a value equal to present value of 30 years future maintenance on the road being transferred. In other words, the local government is able to fund a current project by accepting a long-term maintenance liability.
The link to the DOTD website is: http://wwwsp.dotd.la.gov/Inside_LaDOTD/Divisions/Multimodal/STIP/Pages/default.aspx
LJP
LJP
Economic Development Assistance Grants The Economic Development Administration (EDA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce offers funding opportunities for which infrastructure projects may be eligible. The Economic Development Assistance Program (EDAP) grants assist to leverage regional assets to support the implementation of regional economic development strategies designed to create jobs, leverage private capital, encourage economic development, and strengthen America’s ability to compete in the global marketplace. Funding is contingent upon upcoming fiscal year budget allocations.
The link to the EDA website is: http://www.eda.gov/funding-opportunities/
Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) The Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program under the U.S. department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is a flexible program that provides communities with resources to address a wide range of unique community development needs. The CDBG program works to ensure decent affordable housing, to provide services to the most vulnerable in our communities, and to create jobs through the expansion and retention of businesses. CDBG is an important tool for helping local governments tackle serious challenges facing their communities.
The link to the HUD website is: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/comm_planning/ communitydevelopment/programs
Bond Initiative Local governments are able to bond either general fund or special purpose revenue in order to fund capital improvement projects. Future tax revenues are pledged in order to receive a one-time lump sum to fund projects. Interest is paid on the principal balance based on the terms of the bond.
The link to the State Bond Commission website is: http://www.treasury.state.la.us/Home%20Pages/BondCommission.aspx?@Filter=BC2011
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH
Market Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
Market Analysis The Calcasieu Ship Channel is the epicenter for job growth associated with the industrial expansion projects announced in SWLA. The jobs that will result from the projects in and around Calcasieu Parish represent a real opportunity for the leaders of the Parish to shape the entire Parish for generations to come. Current housing inventory is insufficient to meet the needs associated with projected growth. Beyond housing, growth is expected to occur in most sectors of the community as this unprecedented level of job growth is realized.
THE JOBS THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE PROJECTS IN AND AROUND CALCASIEU
DEMAND MODEL In order to predict what future demand may be, a statistical model was developed to help analyze historical trends, socioeconomic conditions, and future economic activity. In very simplistic terms, the model describes the most likely population scenario for the area assuming future behavior mimics the last five years. Because of this, the model should simply be one of the tools leaders use to inform decisions. It is by no means a deterministic predictor of the future. The illustration below represents overall modeled demand for new housing units in Calcasieu Parish. The peak demand is expected to occur in 2016; in order to meet that demand, housing units would need to be available in advance of the demand actually occurring. If inventory is not available in advance, it is likely that overall housing prices will inflate and demand will migrate to the nearest areas that have supply, even if those areas are more remote. NEW the HOUSING - CALCASIEU InANNUAL keeping with currentDEMAND and historical trend ofPARISH single family homeownership being about doub
PARISH REPRESENT A REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LEADERS OF THE PARISH TO
3000
SHAPE THE ENTIRE PARISH FOR GENERATIONS TO COME.
2500 2000
Calcasieu Parish has grown slowly and steadily over the last 20 years, averaging about 1% each year. This has come as a result of natural births exceeding natural deaths as well as a slight increase due to net in-migration. This follows national trends whereby people are leaving rural areas and becoming more concentrated in urbanized areas. Looking forward, growth will be driven by jobs. Calcasieu Parish is forecasted to add over 25,000 new residents as a result of job growth associated with the industrial expansions. Because Calcasieu is at the epicenter of the growth and it is the most urbanized of the SWLA parishes, it will likely have a disproportionate share of the commercial and retail growth. The SWLA Regional Impact Study estimated that 86% of the overall economic impact related to the expansion projects would be concentrated in Calcasieu Parish.
HOUSING UNITS
DEMAND DRIVERS
1500 1000 500 0 -500
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022
2021
2023
2024
YEAR
NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS ESTIMATED SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PRICE
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $100,000
47
58
377
342
335
38
72
-18
92
160
82
$100,001 to $125,000
15
17
113
102
100
12
22
-6
28
48
25
$125,001 to $175,000
35
43
283
256
251
29
54
-14
69
120
62
$175,001 to $225,000
27
33
214
194
189
22
41
-10
52
91
47
$225,001 to $300,000
20
24
159
144
141
16
30
-8
39
67
35
> $300,000
23
28
182
165
161
18
35
-9
44
77
40
167
203
1,327
1,203
1,178
135
254
-65
323
564
289
TOTAL
87
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
88
CALCASIEU PARISH | Market Analysis
Market Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
In keeping with the current and historical trend of single family homeownership being about double the rate of renters, new single family homes represent the largest category of demand. The highest concentration of demand is found in homes priced between $125,000 - $225,000. This is well in excess of the median home value of $118,3008 and is a direct reflection of the quality of new jobs and associated rise in household income.
Subsection Title SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING RENTALS
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
6
6
28
22
19
-1
6
1
9
13
5
$601 to $800
3
3
13
10
9
0
3
0
4
6
3
$801 to $1,000
2
1
7
6
5
0
2
0
2
3
1
$1,001 to $1,500
1
1
6
5
4
0
1
0
2
3
1
> $1,500
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
12
11
56
43
38
-2
12
2
18
26
11
TOTAL
There will be a moderate demand for single family homes as rentals. This demand will peak in 2016 with the construction jobs. It should also be noted that the number below is likely underestimated as it does not account for temporary construction workers that are successful in obtaining rental housing. In the event that Worker Villages are not able to meet the construction demand, or are not a preferred alternative for temporary workers, additional demand (and associated price increases) should be expected for the single family market. MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (2-4 UNITS)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
22
19
84
65
58
0
20
6
29
40
19
$601 to $800
10
9
39
30
27
0
9
3
14
19
9
$801 to $1,000
6
5
22
17
15
0
5
1
8
10
5
$1,001 to $1,500
5
4
19
14
13
0
4
1
6
9
4
> $1,500
1
1
4
3
3
0
1
0
2
2
1
43
39
168
130
116
0
41
11
58
81
38
Low density multi-family housing is not very common in Calcasieu Parish – it currently represents less than 5% of the overall housing stock. Partly because of the lack of existing inventory, the model predicts moderate low density multi-family demand. This category could be influenced dramatically by the influx of young workers as well as the aging population. The 25-34 year old age group has seen a steady decrease in its rate of home ownership as the millennial generation comes of age9 at the same time baby boomers are seeking to downsize in order to enjoy retirement. Small scale developments should test the market for acceptance of concepts new and different for this area before building on a larger scale. Particular attention needs to be paid to affordability. While new developments may be marketed towards middle and high income families, over 75% of the demand is expected to be for units less than $800/month. The demand for high density multi-family dwellings, typically apartments, is very strong. This level of demand will require new developments across the Parish in order to meet the overall needs of the residents. _______________________________________ 8 2010 US Census 9 Making It Millennial, Deloitte University Press, April 2014 89
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
108
83
466
256
173
-153
59
5
148
201
29
$601 to $800
51
39
218
120
81
-72
28
2
70
94
13
$801 to $1,000
28
22
121
67
45
-40
15
1
39
52
7
$1,001 to $1,500
24
18
104
57
38
-34
13
1
33
45
6
> $1,500
6
4
25
14
9
-8
3
0
8
11
2
217
166
934
513
347
-307
118
10
297
403
57
TOTAL
Demand is strongest in 2018; however, new units are expected to still be needed through the end of the study period. Almost 50% of the overall demand is modeled to be for units costing less than $600 per month. Satisfying the demand for low rent units without housing incentives may prove to be a significant challenge. As one may expect in the apartment market, demand decreases as pricing increases. This is typically because it becomes feasible to pay a mortgage note and accrue equity in lieu of paying rent at higher price points. While this holds true to some degree at lower price points, oftentimes credit worthiness becomes an issue, particularly in light of the more stringent lending requirements put in place after the 2009 recession. The overall demand for housing in Calcasieu Parish is predicted to be robust across all housing types. In the short term, demand will likely manifest itself in whatever inventory is available, particularly if prices begin to rise rapidly. In the longer term, demand is expected to normalize to somewhat mimic the current housing diversity as the market reacts and provides the desired housing while also taking into account the needs and preferences of those migrating to the area.
2024
$0 to $600
TOTAL
MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (>4 UNITS)
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Due to its size relative to the other parishes and the existing housing units (about 84,00010), Calcasieu Parish will be able to maintain much of its current character and quality of life while growing to provide the 9,000+ housing units that are expected to be required. Parish officials will be challenged to manage
THE OVERALL DEMAND FOR HOUSING IN CALCASIEU PARISH IS PREDICTED TO BE ROBUST ACROSS ALL HOUSING TYPES. the rapid growth that is coming while preserving all that makes SWLA special. Overall, growth can be expected throughout Calcasieu Parish. Due to the relatively short commuting times and generally high quality of public education, most communities will see some level of growth. The magnitude of that growth will depend on the nature and quality of available housing, community amenities, and the overall character of the community. Ultimately, the individual needs and preferences of those moving to SWLA will drive their decisions on where to live. It should be noted that if the market does not meet the demand, the region should expect higher purchase and rental costs, citizens displaced, increased homelessness, aged population left seeking alternative housing options (some of which may be undesirable), landowners option out of voucher programs. Other consequences will manifest as time passes. _______________________________________ 2013 American Community Survey
10
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
90
CALCASIEU PARISH
Supply Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
Supply Analysis
SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS - LAKE CHARLES 30 26
26
25
Recent development activity has increased in anticipation of the growth in demand. Several major developments have been announced or begun throughout Calcasieu Parish that will begin to meet major portions of the projected demand. Some of those include: NAME
LOCATION
PLANNED HOMES
Belle Savanne
Carlyss
208 MFR, 1,100 SFR
Lakes/Village at Morganfield
Lake Charles
162 MFR, 2,500 SFR
Oak Grove
Lake Charles
440 SFR
Graywood
Lake Charles
173 SFR (additional)
Walnut Grove
Lake Charles
180 SFR
Beau Blanc Subdivision
Lake Charles
238 SFR
Audubon Trace
Moss Bluff
600 SFR
20
17
16
15
15 10
10
15
14
16
10
9
11
8
5 0 Oct 12
There are many other smaller projects that are not listed spread throughout the Parish. Additionally, there are potential projects that have filed a preliminary plat that have taken no additional action. As the number of planned homes above demonstrate, the development community is acutely aware of the projected growth in the area. These projects, along with others in early planning phase, will be critical to meeting the overall needs. Unfortunately, not all planned projects will come to fruition. Accordingly, it is important to track building permits in addition to monitoring overall development activity. The chart below shows single family
Dec 12
Feb 13
Apr 13
Jun 13
Aug 13
Oct 13
Dec 13
Feb 14
Apr 14
Jun 14
Aug 14
Oct 14
building permit trends in Calcasieu Parish (Unincorporated Areas) and in the City of Lake Charles over the last two years. According to the data provided11, permitting actually slowed in the period from November 2013-November 2014 compared to the same period the year prior by 9%. While there is no clear explanation, this trend is certainly worth monitoring in the coming year. Overall, about 600 single family permits were issued annually in Calcasieu Parish.
SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS - CALCASIEU PARISH (UNINCORPORATED AREAS) 35 31 30 25 20
23
32 30
31
31
31
33
29
28
24
20 20
15 10 5 0 Oct 12
Dec 12
Feb 13
Apr 13
Jun 13
Aug 13
Oct 13
Dec 13
Feb 14
Apr 14
Jun 14
Aug 14
Oct 14 _______________________________________ 11 Sources include permitting offices of each Calcasieu municipality and Calcasieu Parish Police Jury
91
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
92
CALCASIEU PARISH | Supply Analysis
Supply Analysis | CALCASIEU PARISH
Subsection Title MLS AREA
NEW
SALES
SALES VOLUME
AVG SALE PRICE
NEW
PERCENT CHANGE
SALES
PERCENT CHANGE
SALES VOLUME
PERCENT CHANGE
AVG SALE PRICE
PERCENT CHANGE
AREA 10
39
12
$1,086,199
$90,517
59
51.3%
26
116.7%
$2,005,500
84.6%
$77,135
-14.8%
AREA 15
20
6
$402,900
$67,150
12
-40.0%
11
83.3%
$977,000
142.5%
$88,818
32.3%
AREA 20
202
137
$16,325,383
$119,163
197
-2.5%
161
17.5%
$21,759,690
33.3%
$135,153
13.4%
AREA 23
116
85
$5,329,015
$62,694
104
-10.3%
77
-9.4%
$6,355,068
19.3%
$82,533
31.6%
AREA 26
12
8
$348,500
$43,563
20
66.7%
9
12.5%
$529,800
52.0%
$58,867
35.1%
AREA 30
227
175
$40,586,453
$231,923
205
-9.7%
166
-5.1%
$42,453,111
4.6%
$255,742
10.3%
AREA 40
187
140
$32,830,137
$234,501
202
8.0%
131
-6.4%
$34,247,284
4.3%
$261,430
11.5%
AREA 50
99
83
$7,038,828
$84,805
103
4.0%
66
-20.5%
$5,815,048
-17.4%
$88,107
3.9%
AREA 60
87
83
$14,268,523
$171,910
89
2.3%
79
-4.8%
$13,339,950
-6.5%
$168,860
-1.8%
AREA 65
27
18
$3,325,500
$184,750
25
-7.4%
17
-5.6%
$2,464,499
-25.9%
$144,971
-21.5%
AREA 70
32
25
$3,626,513
$145,061
21
-34.4%
20
-20.0%
$2,758,300
-23.9%
$137,915
-4.9%
AREA 75
81
59
$6,297,520
$106,738
95
17.3%
66
11.9%
$7,500,110
19.1%
$113,638
6.5%
AREA 80
147
125
$18,269,513
$146,156
137
-6.8%
119
-4.8%
$19,777,811
8.3%
$166,200
13.7%
AREA 90
121
92
$12,333,705
$134,062
111
-8.3%
83
-9.8%
$11,210,230
-9.1%
$135,063
0.7%
AREA 101
28
21
$3,295,956
$156,950
25
-10.7%
19
-9.5%
$3,176,872
-3.6%
$167,204
6.5%
AREA 110
58
46
$9,060,580
$196,969
77
32.8%
51
10.9%
$11,621,465
28.3%
$227,872
15.7%
AREA 113
12
10
$1,201,500
$120,150
14
16.7%
10
0.0%
$1,792,000
49.1%
$179,200
49.1%
AREA 116
18
10
$974,050
$97,405
18
0.0%
13
30.0%
$2,204,400
126.3%
$169,569
74.1%
AREA 120
206
155
$32,566,528
$210,107
199
-3.4%
161
3.9%
$34,046,154
4.5%
$211,465
0.6%
AREA 130
84
48
$8,831,550
$183,991
76
-9.5%
56
16.7%
$12,391,703
40.3%
$221,280
20.3%
AREA 140
56
48
$5,160,002
$107,500
50
-10.7%
23
-52.1%
$2,548,334
-50.6%
$110,797
3.1%
AREA 143
4
2
$89,000
$44,500
6
50.0%
3
50.0%
$352,000
295.5%
$117,333
163.7%
AREA 146
7
8
$1,233,900
$154,238
6
-14.3%
1
-87.5%
$174,900
-85.8%
$174,900
13.4%
AREA 150
64
41
$5,432,136
$132,491
65
1.6%
53
29.3%
$8,375,073
54.2%
$158,020
19.3%
AREA 155
0
1
$157,000
$157,000
4
400.0%
0
-100.0%
$0
-100.0%
$0
-100.0%
AREA 160
67
39
$7,673,600
$196,759
34
-49.3%
41
5.1%
$8,127,262
5.9%
$198,226
0.7%
AREA 170
48
27
$2,520,100
$93,337
44
-8.3%
26
-3.7%
$3,717,160
47.5%
$142,968
53.2%
AREA 180
29
19
$3,863,317
$203,332
32
10.3%
24
26.3%
$3,749,020
-3.0%
$156,209
-23.2%
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
New construction is not the only means to meet the projected demand. An analysis of the existing home sales market is necessary as well. The following data for single family homes was provided by the SWLA Association of Realtors. Interpreting the data, sales and listing volumes were relatively flat year over year. The average sales price however, rose 8.7% and the overall sales volume rose 7.9%. This would indicate that while supply and demand were relatively stable year over year, prices were steadily increasing. One of the primary indicators of the overall health of the real estate market is “months inventory�. This statistic is derived by dividing the number of homes listed for sale by the average monthly sales. In general, 6 months of inventory is considered to be a balanced market. As of January 2015, there were 46912 single family homes listed for sale. When considering 1,512 homes sold in 2014, current inventory represents 3.72 months of inventory. Actual inventory is slightly higher as many homes that are under construction or were built as spec homes are not listed; however, the low months inventory number supports the sales price. Data was also provided by the Lake Charles Apartment Association. The Association surveys its members on a regular basis to identify trends in the multi-family market. The membership represents 23 apartment complexes in Lake Charles with a total of 3,729 units. The vacancy rate decreased from 11% to 9% between January and October 2013. A more subjective measure of reported traffic, or interest, showed a slight increase with one unit reporting a change from steady to busy over that same period. While the data was insufficient to analyze for changes in monthly rentals, many of the apartment managers and owners reported planned price increases when questioned. The decline in vacancy rate would support such an increase. Several multi-family projects are either planned or underway, the largest of which is the Belle Savanne complex near Sulphur with 208 units. Other projects are scattered throughout the area. It is estimated that total units under construction is about 700. A significant number of additional developments will be required to meet the demand. This shortage could be exacerbated if large blocks of apartments are reserved by industry and its contractors, which is believed to be happening.
_______________________________________ 12 www.realtor.com Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH
Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan | CALCASIEU PARISH
Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan OVERVIEW The Lake Charles North Redevelopment District was designated as a redevelopment authority by House Bill No. 904 Act No. 529 in 2009 sponsored by State Representative A.B. Franklin. The boundaries for this area are the Calcasieu River to the north, Bunker Road to the east, Broad Street to the south, and Hodges Street to the west. The area has a diverse mixture of land uses with the majority being residential. Although this area is in close proximity to the downtown core of the city, it has been separated from downtown and mid-city by Interstate 10 and the Union Pacific Railway which parallel one another transecting the Redevelopment District in an east-to-west manner. There are two main commercial corridors that are near the perimeter of the District. The first corridor is Broad Street on the southern edge that runs east/west. The majority of the commercial and retail business are local goods and services. The second corridor is Martin Luther King Hwy. (U.S. 171) near the eastern perimeter that runs north/south. Along Martin Luther King Hwy., there are a number of diverse local, regional, and national commercial and retail business and entities such as motels, service stations, retail centers, shopping malls, banks, and fast food restaurants. The North Lake Charles area has many assets including; access and connectivity to the Calcasieu River, the North Enterprise Extension, and multiple parks and green space including Riverside Park. The Calcasieu River and river frontage is a major source for transportation, commerce, and recreation. The extension of North Enterprise Boulevard will provide for greater connectivity and commercial redevelopment opportunities. Riverside Park serves not only the local community, but also provides regional recreation opportunities and access to the river and associated wetlands.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Strategic Plan & Implementation Strategy
Internal to the District is a mixed-use commercial corridor that connects to Martin Luther King Hwy. This corridor is a “loop� and runs along Moeling Street, N. Shattuck, and Opelousas Street. Enterprise Boulevard south of Interstate 10 is shorter in length but provides a critical connection to the rest of the City. The majority of the District is comprised of neighborhoods that mainly contain residential land uses. These neighborhoods originally were comprised of the communities of Goosport, Fisherville, and Rice Mill where in 1926, the City hosted the largest rice mill in the world. Workers at the mill lived in the adjacent residential neighborhoods. Located along the western perimeter and near the southern perimeter along the riverfront are uses that are legally non-conforming. In the future, as businesses change, they will need to comply with light manufacturing zoning requirements. LAKE CHARLES NORTH REDEVELOPMENT AREA
Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Study, Housing Strategic Strategic Plan, Plan and & Implementation Implementation Strategy Strategy | |SWLA SWLAECONOMIC ECONOMICDEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENTALLIANCE ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan
Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan | CALCASIEU PARISH
Today, current residential areas within the Lake Charles North District remain but are challenged with maintaining property values, an aged and deteriorating housing stock, a high number of adjudicated properties, lack of land use diversity, and a declining population. However, such challenges present an opportunity for new development and growth by utilizing new construction on vacant lots and or to use the existing infrastructure for redevelopment. Even though there are seven public schools within the District, they are all currently performing at a lower level when compared to other districts within the Parish. Of the three elementary schools, only one has a 2014 Report Card Grade of “C”. The others are below that level. The District has one middle school and one high school. Both are performing at grade “D”. An alternative educational choice that many parents select is to enroll their children in a parochial school, charter school, or apply to attend a school outside the current designated school district. One recommendation to address the current systemic deficiencies within the education system is to have the school leaders develop initiatives to address low performance and to collaborate with residents and community leaders on implementation.
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LAKE CHARLES NORTH DISTRICT SCHOOL LOCATIONS AND 2014 REPORT CARD GRADES
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developed is a land use concept that further illustrated a plan for areas that front on the Calcasieu River and is referred to as the Riverfront Parkway District. This District included a mixture of land uses for commercial, retail, housing, and recreation with alternatives for mobility connectivity. One recommendation was the extension and characterization of Enterprise Boulevard which served as a gateway to the area and connection to the downtown and mid-city cores. Since 10 years have passed from completion of the Corps of Engineers’ study, community and city leaders should initiate a planning workshop to re-evaluate current trends with community desires to establish a visionary plan for all of the Lake Charles North District. The Corps of Engineers’ study only provided for recommendations to the Southwest portion.
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Recognizing the many opportunities within the North Lake Charles Region, the Lake Charles North Redevelopment Authority and District was created. The District has been a focus of several community redevelopment and reinvestment efforts. These efforts began shortly after Hurricane Rita in September 2005.
Another recommendation within the Corps of Engineers plan was for the City to extend and provide characterization to Enterprise Boulevard. This is an important factor for connecting the District with the rest of the city by serving as a gateway to the downtown core and mid-city areas. Enterprise Boulevard also serves as a gateway to the downtown and mid-city corridors.
In 2005 and 2006, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers initiated a study entitled “North Lake Charles Riverfront Parkway and Redevelopment Plan” that identified community features, public infrastructure, transportation networks, cultural resources, and recreation resources as a baseline for providing conceptual land use and transportation recommendations. The main focus area that was
The Enterprise Boulevard Extension opened in May 2013. Phase II for Enterprise Boulevard is in the feasibility stage for routing and cost scenario evaluations. Future segments will be constructed in multiple phases as funding will be a critical factor in future development.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Strategic Plan & Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan
Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan | CALCASIEU PARISH
NORTH LAKE CHARLES RIVERFRONT REDEVELOPMENT SITE PLAN
CITY OF LAKE CHARLES ZONING MAP
4
1 5 2 3
6 5 7
8 13 9 11
10
12
1. Private Marina 2. Multi-Story Condominium 3. Waterfront Market 4. Low-Rise Village 5. Low-Rise Mixed Uses
6. Waterfront Townhomes 7. Wet/Dry Amphitheater 8. Linear Park with Walk/Bike Trails 9. Buccaneer Park 10. Boat Launch
11. Large Campus Facilities 12. Stackless Warehouses 13. Enterprise Boulevard Gateway
Current zoning within the District contains a conventional framework for guiding land development. With the amount of vacant and or unmaintained properties, the Lake Charles North Redevelopment Authority recognizes the opportunity of potential redevelopment or consolidation of property by implementing an adjudicated properties program. By definition, adjudicated property is property that has been placed in state or local governmental hands because local property taxes have not been paid and sequentially have not been redeemed by the debtor. Louisiana law authorizes governmental bodies having jurisdiction over these properties to sell or donate only those that have been adjudicated since January 1, 1975. In addition, the Lake Charles North Redevelopment Authority has initiated a program that has been used in several other areas around the State. The District has begun to utilize the “Lot Next Door� program giving property owners options to purchase vacant and adjacent property, who in turn maintain the property without burdening the City with the required maintenance. The District is also part of the City of Lake Charles Brownfield Program targeting properties that can use federal funding for redevelopment. This program began in 1992.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Strategic Plan & Implementation Strategy
There are several non-profit organizations that have been working within the community and with potential residents for the past 10 to 15 years. Two organizations, Project Build a Future (PBAF) and Habitat For Humanity Calcasieu Area (HFHCA), have been successfully providing new homes for qualifying families and home-owners. PBAF has built and sold more that 58 homes in the Redevelopment District. HFHCA has also built 37 homes. The combined value of new home construction in the District during the past 15 years is in excess of $8.0 million dollars. Currently, there are approximately 23 people on a PBAF waiting list for the homes built in the area. While many of those on the waiting list are low income and are in need of affordable housing at $600 per month, there are approximately 20% who are higher income and can afford a moderately priced home. These programs and initiatives are all tools that can be used by current property owners to empower themselves to kick-start community redevelopment. These programs and initiatives are also a smart way to eliminate blight in an area and provide opportunities for redevelopment for local and outside developers. By consolidation of property into tracts that are right sized, development parcels become feasible to redevelop by taking advantage of the existing available infrastructure. Consolidation will allow for the re-vision of new uses within the District similar to the use illustrated in the Corps of Engineers North Lake Charles Riverfront Parkway and Redevelopment Plan.
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan
Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan | CALCASIEU PARISH
ARCHITECTURE
DEMOGRAPHICS
To gain an understanding of existing housing types in the Lake Charles North Redevelopment Area, one must have a general understanding of home construction in the U.S. during the last century. A detailed summary of American Housing 1900 – 2000 can be viewed in Appendix A.
The North Lake Charles Region includes the areas proximate to the I-10 corridor in the City of Lake Charles, Louisiana.1 In 2000, the Region contained 22,419 residents.2 The population for the Region declined to 20,290 residents in 2010.3 The 2013 estimated population for the Region was 19,573.4 The growth pattern for the Region differs from the population growth observed in the broader City of Lake Charles during the same time. Based on current demographic trends, the population of the Region is projected to continue to decline to 18,203 residents by 2024.5 In contrast to the fast rate of growth (9.5%) projected for the City of Lake Charles, the rate of growth for the North Lake Charles Region between 2014 and 2024 is -5.8%.
The homes built in the North Lake Charles area were built to the same standards and practices as those in the Charpentier and Margaret Place Historic districts. The practices of construction from 70 to 100 years ago are accepted as superior to those of today in many ways. Unfortunately, many of the homes have deteriorated from a lack of maintenance. For homes in the area that have been well maintained, the historical value, excellent craftsmanship and unique style are invaluable. Structures built from the 1900s to the 1950s were built with less than 1,000 square feet, were typically one to two-stories in height, with two or three bedrooms, and 0 to 1 bathrooms. Foundations were typically wooden beam construction or brick pillars with a wooden floor creating a crawl space above the existing grade. Even though housing standards were developed as early as the 1920s, federal housing codes were first introduced in 1949 as home construction was standardized with new materials and techniques.
WITHIN THE LAKE CHARLES NORTH REDEVELOPMENT AREA, THE MAJORITY OF THE HOUSING STOCK IS WITHIN THE RANGE OF 25 TO 80 YEARS IN AGE.
Home construction from the 1960s to the 1980s included wooden frame construction on concrete slabs and incorporated carports as the norm for protecting vehicles from outside conditions. House sizes increased during this timeframe as well to accommodate for larger families and greater amenities. From the 1990s to 2008, new housing starts increased dramatically across the nation as family incomes increased and homeownership financing diversified and became accessible to a greater number of qualifying homeowners. Residential structures grew in size averaging over 2,000 square feet with a minimum of 2 bathrooms and 3 bedrooms. Enclosed garages were also common if not expected with new construction. Within the Lake Charles North Redevelopment Area, the majority of the housing stock is within the range of 25 to 80 years in age. The age of the current housing stock within the area suggests that home maintenance/repair is going to be critical in order to ensure safety and aesthetics to current structures.
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Although the City of Lake Charles is projected to gain 4,105 residents through new job creation and migration to the City, the North Lake Charles Region is unlikely to experience substantial growth due to economic expansion without major community changes. A key factor driving this expectation is that the median household income for the Region is lower than that for all households in the City of Lake Charles. Estimated median household income in 2014 is $28,269 in the North Lake Charles Region as compared to $48,993 for the City of Lake Charles.6 _______________________________________ 1 Population data for the North Lake Charles Region are obtained by aggregation Census population counts for Census tracts 1 (Block Group 1 only), 2, 3, 4, 6, 14, and 15. 2 2000 Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau 3 2010 Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau 4 Estimated population developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC using data from the 2010 Census of Population and Housing and Geolytics 2014-19 Census Tract Population Projections 5 Projection developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC using data from the Geolytics 2014-2019 Census Tract Population Projections 6 Geolytics 2014-2019 Census Tract Population Projections
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Strategic Plan & Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan
Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan | CALCASIEU PARISH
It is important to note that the growth occurring in SWLA will occur over a period of a decade or longer. While time is of the essence, a thoughtful, deliberate approach to neighborhood vitality is more important than an uncoordinated scattered approach. This means that strong concentrated redevelopment efforts in the short term may help North Lake Charles capture a larger share of the overall growth for the City and Metropolitan Area than would otherwise occur.
Subsection Title
If no changes are made and the historical decline continues, but does not immediately lead to gentrification, then the chart below indicates the projected number of households in the area: FORECASTED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IN NORTH LAKE CHARLES LJP
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In terms of race and ethnicity, the vast majority (84.7%) of the North Lake Charles Regional population is non-Hispanic African American. Non-Hispanic whites account for 10.6% of the population and Hispanic residents comprise 1.7%. The racial mix for the North Lake Charles Region is markedly different from that of the City of Lake Charles, which is much more diverse with no race or ethnic group accounting for more than half of the total population. Over the next decade, the percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic African American and Hispanic will continue to increase, while the percentage of the population that is non-Hispanic white will decrease.
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
7,480
7,432
7,384
7,335
7,287
7,239
7,192
7,146
7,099
7,053
7,006
SUPPLY ANALYSIS The Lake Charles North Redevelopment District is approximately aligned with MLS Areas 10 & 15 as shown on the map below. The sales data for these areas of the last two years is as follows: LAKE CHARLES NORTH MLS AREAS
The North Lake Charles Region is also distinct from the City of Lake Charles in terms of housing and poverty. The Region has a larger share of renter occupied and vacant housing as compared to the City of Lake Charles.7 In addition, the poverty rate for many of the census tracts within the North Lake Charles Region far exceeds the poverty rate for the City of Lake Charles.8 Although the Lake Charles North Region faces a number of challenges over the coming decade, the community also has the opportunity to redevelop in order to attract new residents. As noted above, a relatively large share of housing units are vacant and the percentage of occupied housing units that are owner occupied is much lower than the rate for the City. In the absence of a strong network of home owners, organizations such as the North Lake Charles Redevelopment Authority provide a foundation for civic engagement and a mechanism to reinvigorate the community. So far, that agency has focused on adjudicated properties and is beginning to successfully return those properties to commerce. While the focus thus far has been on small unmarketable properties, the agency reports that it will soon begin to tackle the truly marketable pieces of land that could serve as the genesis for revitalization in the community. A recommendation for the Redevelopment Authority is to develop a priority list of potential opportunities and the associated cost-benefit matrix to capture ready to build projects with existing site infrastructure and services.
_______________________________________ 7 2010 Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau 8 2008-2012 American Community Survey 9 William J. Wilson. 1996. When Work Disappears: The World of the New Urban Poor. 103
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Strategic Plan & Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Strategic Plan & Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Lake Charles North District Pull-Out Plan
Subsection Title | SECTION TITLE
2013
2014
MLS AREA
NEW
SALES
SALES VOLUME
AVG SALE PRICE
NEW
PERCENT CHANGE
SALES
PERCENT CHANGE
SALES VOLUME
PERCENT CHANGE
AVG SALE PRICE
PERCENT CHANGE
AREA 10
39
12
$1,086,199
$90,517
59
116.7%
$2,005,500
84.6%
1331
84.6%
$77,135
-14.8%
AREA 15
20
6
$402,900
$67,150
12
83.3%
$977,000
142.5%
623
142.5%
$88,818
32.3%
COMBINED
59
18
1,489,099
$82,728
71
106%
$2,982,500
100%
347
100%
$80,608.11 -3%
The average sales prices in Area 10, west of U.S. 171, declined year after year. Given that this area makes up over 65% of the reported market activity, this data corroborates the overall population decline. It is also significant to note that the average sales price in the North Lake Charles Area is about one-half of the average sales price within Calcasieu Parish. While it is important to review the data, caution should be used in any interpretation as the sample size is relatively small. It is also not uncommon for real estate activity to occur outside of the MLS system in low income areas, very similar to some of the rural areas in SWLA. In other words, the data presented above is likely a good indicator of the overall market, but users should recognize its limitations. Project Build a Future and Habitat for Humanity Calcasieu Area have also tracked their sales during the same period as listed above. PBAF has sold a total of 23 homes during 2013-2014 while HFHCA has sold 8 homes. This combined sales averages is approximately $91,700.
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INFRASTRUCTURE ANALYSIS Future planning efforts and visioning is only a portion of the assessment that needs to be completed in the District. Transportation and infrastructure analysis should also be conducted. The following are suggestions for future work efforts. • Complete Enterprise Boulevard connection to U.S. 171; • Conduct sanitary sewer assessment to address possible gaps in areas served, to identify lines that need to be rehabilitated, and to determine existing and future capacity within the system; and LJP
• Conduct a storm drainage assessment to identify current drainage patterns, possible drainage improvements, and determine existing and future capacity for denser land use patterns.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Regional Housing Strategic Plan & Implementation Strategy
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Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE LJP
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CALCASIEU PARISH
Implementation Strategy | CALCASIEU PARISH
Implementation Strategy CALCASIEU PARISH Calcasieu Parish is at the epicenter of the regional economic development. New businesses and residents, both permanent and temporary, will locate in the Parish. The challenge will be to manage the growth in a sustainable and positive manner that incorporates community desires and needs and capitalizes on existing infrastructure. In addition to the incorporated municipalities, there are significant unincorporated areas that have infrastructure and land available for growth. These areas also need to be part of future planning efforts. Recommended objectives and implementation strategies for Calcasieu Parish leaders to consider are:
ENSURE GROWTH IS SUPPORTED BY INFRASTRUCTURE xxThis effort was unfortunately rejected by a vote of the people. Parish leaders should continue to improve or increase waste water capacity by continuing to reach out to the public for support or continue the effort by other means. xx Establish a proactive relationship amongst Parish representatives, Municipal representatives, and utility providers to develop a current and “live” regional database identifying utility infrastructure locations and capacities as a basis for future land growth decisions. If the information becomes stale and not current it will be useless or misleading. xx Identify infill development opportunities within existing municipal boundaries. For example, create a regional stakeholder committee (political leaders, residents, and business owners) with each municipality to conduct a strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) assessment. Areas of assessment may include: - Development codes and regulations, permitting process; - Available parcels or properties for resale; - Infrastructure (transportation, utilities, public services, emergency preparedness); and - Current business climate within municipalities and Parish. xxCollaborate with local and regional real estate sales and development organizations to develop mechanism for tracking listings and sales of residential and commercial properties. Our research shows that MLS listings are not comprehensive and do not capture a significant number of the sales in the area.
xx Explore on-site temporary housing for short-term workers with industrial and commercial industries. This would also include the establishment or revisions to existing Parish and Municipal codes to allow for residential housing in industrial settings.
LAKE CHARLES NORTH The Lake Charles North Redevelopment District is an untapped infill development opportunity that has a strong infrastructure base. While there are challenges there is a foundation for future success. Efforts should largely focus on traditional community development activities. As those efforts take root, community development will drive further improvement in the housing market. Recommended objectives and implementation strategies for community and City leaders to consider are:
REBRANDING OF THE LAKE CHARLES NORTH COMMUNITY xx Develop a community stakeholder committee comprised of residents, business owners, local grassroots and non-profit organizations, educators, community leaders, local real estate representatives, and Redevelopment Authority representatives to conduct a strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) assessment. Areas of assessment may include: - Inventory condition of existing housing stock, historical structures & properties, and identification of vacant or available parcels/tracts; - Inventory of existing utility infrastructure; - Current community educational facilities, curriculum, and choices; and - Identify target areas for focused development to kickstart a linkage corridor to downtown xx Develop a marketing campaign to target potential new residents and business owners. The marketing campaign to include: - Proximity and connectivity to downtown Lake Charles; - Promotion of Riverside Park; - Promotion of other recreational facilities and choices; - Proximity and accessibility to the Calcasieu River; - Local arts, cultural, and historic sites; and - Successes and available programs within the Calcasieu Parish public school system, charter schools and private schools. xx Collaborate with regional industrial economic development representatives and City leaders to develop strategies for potential employer assisted housing initiatives. xx Collaborate with the City of Lake Charles to develop redevelopment incentives such as: - Infrastructure cost sharing for street, sidewalk, water, and wastewater improvements on residential housing units sold below $150,000. - Reducing the cost for water/sewer taps for residential housing units sold below $150,000. - Permitting efficiency and expedition for residential housing units sold below $150,000.
ENCOURAGE GROWTH WHILE PROTECTING QUALITY OF LIFE
xx Develop a citizen driven community land use master plan that establishes the following: - Vision for future; - Identification of suitable areas of growth; - Development of a land use plan that balances growth of residential, commercial, industrial, and public recreational land uses; and - Identification of infill housing opportunities (rentals and ownership). xx Develop a streamlined process for development approval, permitting, and building code reviews. This could include consolidating the process in both municipal and unincorporated areas. 107
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
_______________________________________ *It should be noted from stakeholder input meetings that a substantial amount of planning and visioning for the LCNRA has already taken place. Implementation is the key to enhancing the Q of L in North L.C., Additional planning is largely unnecessary an will take away needed energy and resources. Our recommendation is to stop implementation now. Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CALCASIEU PARISH | Implementation Strategy

ENCOURAGE GROWTH WHILE PROTECTING QUALITY OF LIFE xx Develop a citizen-driven community visioning master plan that establishes the following: - Reevaluate the 2006 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers redevelopment plan; - Develop a land use plan that balances growth of residential, commercial, industrial, and public recreational land uses; and - Identifies infill housing opportunities (rentals and ownership) and potential implementation funding sources scaled to levels of development and improvement investment including sustainable development incentives, first time home-buyer programs, and other redevelopment tax credit programs. xx Collaborate with local and regional real estate sales and development organizations to develop mechanism for tracking listings and sales of residential and commercial properties. Our research shows that MLS listings are not comprehensive and do not capture a significant number of the sales in the area.
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“
With Hurricane Rita in the not-so-distant past and with the economic boom making its presence known, now is the perfect time to unveil a strategic plan solely focused on housing for the region. As we welcome the growth that will accompany future commercial and industrial development, our decision-makers will have to find a balance between the various housing-types, while ensuring new residential construction is safe and strong. This strategy will be the tool to help strike that balance and keep our communities resilient.
”
Jennifer R. Wallace, AICP Calcasieu Parish Police Jury Planning & Development
“
As the area positions for growth, development leaders must consider the changing demographic of the community and offer quality and affordable housing choices. Several areas are prime for infill development which should be responsive to the community’s development visions.
”
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Lori Marinovich Executive Director Downtown Development City of Lake Charles
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
CAMERON PARISH — Cameron Parish is the most southwestern parish of the State, immediately south of Calcasieu Parish and west of Vermilion Parish. The western boundary of the Parish is along the Sabine River and Sabine Lake which serves as a state boundary with Texas.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy LJP
CAMERON PARISH
Housing Strategic Plan | CAMERON PARISH
Cameron Parish Housing Strategic Plan INTRODUCTION Cameron Parish is the southwestern most parish of the State, immediately south of Calcasieu Parish and west of Vermilion Parish. The western boundary of the Parish is along the Sabine River and Sabine Lake which serves as a state boundary with Texas. Cameron Parish serves as the gateway from the Gulf of Mexico to Southwest Louisiana. It has long been recognized as a series of tightly knit small communities that work hard and look out for one another. Paradoxically, Cameron is geographically the largest parish in Louisiana but is the second least populated parish with a July 1, 2013 estimated population of 6,744 residents.1 SW LOUISIANA REGIONAL MAP
While the population of Cameron has historically been low, the current population is near an all-time low. The largest impetus behind the downturn in number of residents has been the long-term impacts of Hurricanes Rita and Ike. The long periods of time after these storms without basic services and utilities forced residents to take up residence in other areas. Many residents have still not returned for a variety of reasons. IMPEDIMENTS TO RETURNING2
Other I like where I am now Healthcare Housing No shopping and services Fear of hurricanes Employment Building regulations
13.8% 18.1% 27.5% 29% 38.4% 42% 42% 43.5% 68.8%
Despite some of the specific challenges of living in Cameron Parish—factors such as the threat of storms and flooding, low elevations, lack of commercial and retail opportunities—there is an incredibly strong sense of place. The people who live in Cameron, both lifelong residents and newcomers, consistently rate it as a great place to live. Additionally, Cameron ranks well in national studies related to livability. • According to a study published in the New York Times in June 2014, Cameron Parish was rated as one of only eight Louisiana Parishes to be in the top half of the easiest places to live of the nation’s counties. The study’s criteria used to measure and rate the nation’s counties included education attainment, median income, unemployment, disability rate, life expectancy, and obesity. • According to the 2015 Health Study conducted by the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute, Cameron rated as the healthiest parish in Louisiana. The study considered health factors such as health behavior and access to care, as well as socioeconomic factors such as educational attainment, poverty, familial composition, and the physical environment.
_______________________________________ 1 July 1, 2013 Population Estimate, U.S. Census Bureau 113
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CAMERON PARISH | Housing Strategic Plan
LOCATIONS OF PROJECT SITES
Subsection Title
Housing Strategic Plan | CAMERON PARISH
CURRENT TRENDS From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, the Parish lost 95 residents. The majority of the loss was due to net outmigration—more residents moving out of the Parish than moving into the Parish. The Parish lost 178 residents due to net outmigration. The population loss observed from 2010 to 2013 is symptomatic of a much larger demographic event that resulted from the hurricanes of 2005. In 2000, Cameron Parish had 9,991 residents.2 By 2010, the population had dropped to 6,839. CAMERON PARISH HISTORICAL POPULATION 10,000
9,336 9,260
8,194
POPULATION
8,000
7,203
The Cameron Parish educational system has consistently rated as one of the top districts in the Southwest Region and within the top tier of the State with only four high schools within the district. In 2014, out of the 71 school districts throughout the State, Cameron Parish School District ranked 18th with a performance score of 95.8 and received a “B” letter grade. The performance ranking has improved every year since 2008.
6,909
6,054
6,839
6,000
6,244 3,952
The current surge in industrial projects offers a unique opportunity for Cameron Parish. As of April 2015, five of the top 20 projects in the Region will be located in Cameron Parish.
9,991
4,288
4,000 3,952
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YEAR
Economic development projects are bringing thousands of jobs to Cameron Parish. This addition of quality jobs may reverse the current trend of declining population. Based on historical trends, Cameron Parish is projected to lose 568 residents from 2014 - 2024.3 The Parish is projected to lose 239 children (people age 0-17). Working age adults age 18 to 64 would decline by 679 residents. The only population gain for Cameron Parish will occur in the retirement age population age 65 and over, where the population will increase by 350 people. These projections suggest that Parish leaders consider the housing needs of the growing aging population. In addition, the loss of working age adults and children point to a weakened demand for public education and single family housing.
_______________________________________ 2 The Future of Cameron Parish: A survey of Attitudes of Current and Former Parish Residents, Michael M. Kurth, August 31, 2013 3 Population Projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC 115
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Housing Strategic Plan | CAMERON PARISH
Subsection Title
POPULATION IMPACT FROM REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES OVERALL ANNUAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
6,679
6,631
6,614
6,586
6,569
6,503
6,451
6,388
6,348
6,305
6,250
Population projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC
Population growth from proposed regional economic development activities will have a limited impact on Cameron Parish due to lack of available housing. Population growth due to the influx of workers filling jobs in the Region is projected to be 43 new residents by 2016 and 108 residents by 2024.4 In terms of households, a total of 17 new households are expected to move to Cameron Parish by 2016 with a total of 43 arriving by 2024. If additional housing is built in the Parish at desirable price points, these numbers could increase significantly. Similar to other parishes in the Region experiencing net outmigration, the vast majority of migrants out of Cameron Parish relocate to Calcasieu Parish.5 This is a function of both the proximity to Calcasieu Parish and the opportunities provided by a large urbanized area. This finding suggests that policy makers should consider strategies to market the natural amenities of an area that is located on the Gulf Coast. With the influx of new migrants to the region, policy efforts may help Cameron Parish enjoy a larger share of new residents. In terms of race and ethnicity, nearly all residents of Cameron Parish are Nonhispanic White (93.1%).6 Nonhispanic African Americans comprise 2.1% of the population. Hispanic residents account for 3.2% of the population. Based on the population trends for Cameron Parish it is likely that the level of racial and ethnic diversity will remain constant over time. The long-term projection for Cameron Parish indicates a slow but steady population decline. Housing statistics indicate that the Parish has a higher than average vacancy rate among owner occupied homes—3.2% for Cameron Parish compared to 2.0% for Louisiana.7 The higher vacancy rate may be influenced by homes that may be uninhabitable rather than vacant and ready for occupancy. At present, 91.1% of housing units in Cameron Parish are owner occupied, far above the State average of 67.4%. The lack of rental units may be one factor limiting long-term growth because of a limited opportunity to live in the area without owning a home.
_______________________________________ 4 Projections by Louisiana Demographics, LLC 5 2010-2011 Internal Revenue Service Migration Data Profiles 6 July 1, 2013 Population Estimates by Age, Race, Sex, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. Census Bureau 7 2008-2012 American Community Survey Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CAMERON PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CAMERON PARISH
CAMERON PARISH 100 YEAR FLOOD ZONE
LAND DEVELOPMENT The future growth and development required within Cameron Parish to accommodate the potential new households should be planned in a sustainable manner that complements the existing environmental conditions and available infrastructure while adhering to resiliency strategies. Generally the available utility, transportation, cultural, and social infrastructure has been provided around existing Parish communities. Utilization of the available infrastructure within these communities is the focus of current planning efforts within this implementation strategy.
LAND DEVELOPMENT CODE REVIEW In response to Hurricane Rita, Cameron Parish implemented federally mandated resiliency principles surge and high winds are now regulated Parish-wide. The Coastal Use Permit (CUP) process is part of
Cameron Parish is directly located on the Gulf of Mexico, therefore, it is within the designated Department of Natural Resource Coastal Zone. The Parish is vulnerable to seasonal tropical storms due to existing low elevations and threats of flooding and storm surges. Currently, over 82.2% of the Parish is within
the Louisiana Coastal Resources Program (LCRP), which is an effort among Louisiana citizens, as well as
a Special Flood Hazard Area.
for construction. Building codes (IBC 2006) and federal permits for properties at risk of tidal storm
State, Federal and Local advisory and regulatory agencies to preserve, restore, and enhance Louisiana’s valuable coastal resources. The purpose of the CUP process is to make certain that any activity affecting the Coastal Zone, such as a project that involves either dredging or filling, is performed in accordance with guidelines established in the LCRP. Cameron Parish is entirely within the Coastal Zone. Development activities within the Coastal Zone require a CUP.
• The Cameron Parish ordinance addresses CUP by stating that the construction of a single family home or multifamily home for non-commercial purposes is exempt from needing to apply for a CUP. • The ordinance further explains that a structure may be exempt if the structure is built “…by or for the owner of the land for the owner’s use and not involving the building of more than one such structure as in subdividing, tracting development, speculative building, or recreational community development.” • Cameron Parish’s land development code requires the finished floors of buildings and horizontal support members of mobile homes to be equal to or higher than the 100 year base flood elevation. • Cameron Parish does not have a master land use plan, zoning ordinance, or planning/ land use commission. Despite these facts, the permitting department staff are knowledgeable and adept at explaining the permitting nuances in Cameron Parish.
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CAMERON PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CAMERON PARISH
money into a road that may not serve any more houses if they are not rebuilt after being damaged by a flooding event. If Cameron Parish wishes to limit accepting responsibility for infrastructure built in unsustainable areas, then it would be beneficial for the Parish to create a master land use plan. The benefit for the Parish and for developers is that it will identify which areas of the Parish are eligible for public maintenance and which areas are not.
Subsection Title LJP
LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS The subdivision approval process for Cameron Parish requires obtaining a preliminary plat and obtaining approvals from utilities companies, the permitting supervisor, water districts, DHH sanitarian and obtaining a Coastal Use Permit (CUP). After all items are completed, the subdivision is then brought before
CAMERON PARISH LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
the Police Jury for approval. If approved, then the applicant can start construction on the development.
• Obtain a Preliminary Plat • Obtain approvals from utility providers • Obtain approval from Permit Supervisor • Obtain approval from Water District
Another option to be considered is for the Parish to strategically identify areas around existing developed areas as locations for future infrastructure improvement. This may allow an easier transition to using development codes. Also, utilization of the modeling available in the Web Portal will help target strategic areas. It is envisioned that the model will provide predictability and mitigate risk for developers. The high level of construction activity in the Parish has the potential to damage existing infrastructure. This can be difficult to police after the fact and can be readily addressed through a permitting process. The Parish should consider instituting a permitting process that all utility and pipeline companies are required to follow. The process could include road reconstruction standards, traffic control requirements, and road damage bonds. These tools protect the Parish against inadvertent damages that may be caused by private users crossing Parish right of ways.
Review by the Cameron Parish Police Jury
If approved, subdivision is constructed
• Obtain approval from DHH Sanitarian • Obtain a Coastal Use Permit (CUP)
LAND DEVELOPMENT ORDINANCE RECOMMENDATIONS The same natural land characteristics (i.e. wetland habitat, proximity to Gulf Coast) that make Cameron Parish a desired location for outdoor enthusiasts are also some of the same characteristics that make the Parish more vulnerable to storm surge and damage caused by tropical events. Therefore, it is essential that Cameron Parish use land development codes and planning to protect the natural landscape and to mitigate financial risks for both property owners and the community. One method of making a community more resilient is to require the finished floor elevations of buildings to be set at an elevation greater than the 100 year base flood elevation, nearest sanitary sewer manhole, centerline of adjacent roadway, or maximum recorded inundation. This extra elevation is also referred to as “freeboard”. Adding this requirement into the land ordinances is an item that increases a community’s insurance rating which reduces flood insurance premiums.
RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAKE PARISH INFRASTRUCTURE MORE RESILIENT (MITIGATE RISKS OF PUBLICLY FUNDED INFRASTRUCTURE, SPEED UP RE-BUILDING IN CORRECT PLACES) DUE TO HURRICANES AND HURRICANE INDUCED FLOODING
RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL The residential suitability model for Cameron Parish was aimed at infill and fringe development for larger residential projects that have reasonable access to basic services, infrastructure, and desirable community amenities. This model is a tool and starting point to determine where potential and suitable areas for development can occur. It is not a substitute for the due diligence process. Development of the residential suitability model comprised many layers and data sets. Each of the data sets were given values in order to conduct a composite score analysis. Composite scores ranged from .093 (low suitability) to 9.45 (high suitability). The core components of the residential suitability model include the following: • Aerial imagery; • Existing land cover classifications; • Transportation corridors; • Existing topographic elevations; • Emergency preparedness such as fire, police, and health care locations; • Proximity to DEQ air permitted emission locations; • FEMA Firm flood plain locations; • Historical records of inundation from Hurricanes Rita and Ike; • Proximity to community facilities such as schools, churches, cemeteries, post offices, libraries, shopping centers, grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies; and • Proximity to water and wastewater infrastructure.
Just as homebuilders should minimize their financial risk, the Parish should do the same by being selective on where to spend public dollars for infrastructure. As an option, the Parish could consider not taking new subdivision roads into the Parish maintenance system. This minimizes the risk of investing 121
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CAMERON PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
CAMERON PARISH RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL
Subsection Title
Resiliency Analysis | CAMERON PARISH
levels, the available infrastructure has not yet reached capacity. As a result of post-hurricane disaster recovery spending, the infrastructure is in good condition. Local government could consider using available infrastructure funds to build trunklines and extensions to undeveloped, but suitable, sites in order to lower the overall cost of development in the Parish. An identified immediate need for Cameron Parish is a new 50 vehicle ferry. A bridge or tunnel on LA Hwy 82 at the Calcasieu ship channel would eliminate the need for a ferry at this location; however, any such project would take years to develop. Immediate needs should be addressed with a ferry until a bridge or tunnel project could be completed. A ferry, bridge, or tunnel would provide all of Cameron Parish reliable access from one side of the Parish to the other. Increased transportation infrastructure will provide accessibility for Cheniere LNG, Cameron LNG , Venture Global, Waller Point Marine, and Southern California Telephone and Energy. Reliable access from the east side of the Calcasieu Ship Channel to Monkey Island is essential for development, since Southern California Telephone and Energy’s announced project makes travel to the island a necessity.
IDENTIFY POTENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING SOURCES The type of programs that would be best suited for water and sanitary sewer improvements are: Cameron Parish scored modestly (Medium Suitability) in locations around existing communities. Due to the vastness of the local agricultural industry, lack of rural amenity clustering, and large areas within Special Flood Hazard Areas, the remaining areas of the Parish scored lower (Low Suitability). Relative to the 5-parish region, Cameron Parish does not score well (Low Suitability) in the potential residential suitability model. Cameron’s lower scores in the residential suitability model relate to the fact that most of the parish is in flood zones, and the lack of clustering of commercial and retail establishments. The residential suitability model indicates that the area around the Village of Cameron is one of the more ideal places for residential development within Cameron Parish. This area is near the mouth of the Calcasieu Ship Channel. This is near the location where 3 of the major projects plan to invest nearly $13 billion and create over 1,400 permanent jobs. Roughly 30 miles to the west is the Cheniere Energy LNG facility on the western border of Cameron Parish. This project could also be considered a catalyst for residential development. Other areas that rated higher in the residential suitability model are the areas near Hackberry and Grand Chenier. The Cameron LNG project has begun construction in this area and is expected to create an additional 700 permanent jobs in this area. These areas already are some of the more densely populated areas of the parish and have existing infrastructure in place. Therefore, public and private investment to accommodate additional housing would be less expensive compared
Clean Water State Revolving Loan Program This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for new or needed upgrades for wastewater facilities. The loan term is typically 20 years with interest rates that are less than 1%. The program requires an application to LDEQ. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDEQ website is: http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/portal/tabid/2148/Default.aspx
Drinking Water Revolving Loan Fund This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (LDHH) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for construction of new or needed upgrades of water treatment facilities. The program requires an application to LDHH. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDHH website is: http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/index.cfm/page/431/n/285
to providing new infrastructure.
IDENTIFY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS No additional areas in Cameron Parish, other than the existing villages, are classified as areas that are ideal for residential development. The existing towns, such as the Village of Cameron, have community water and sanitary sewer. Given that Cameron Parish has not yet returned to pre-Hurricane Rita population
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CAMERON PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | CAMERON PARISH
Water and Waste Disposal Loans and Grants This program is administered by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The program uses a revolving loan fund for water and waste disposal systems in rural areas and towns with populations of 10,000 or less. It is a continual application process with applications submitted to USDA State and local RDA Offices.
Subsection Title
The link to the USDA website is: http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/UWP-dispdirectloansgrants.htm
All of these funding sources are in the form of loans – it is incumbent on the borrower to develop a revenue stream large enough to meet the debt service requirements. Typically the revenue comes in the form of user fees or taxes. These programs do have the benefit of minimizing the upfront capital contribution which makes it easier to finance larger capital improvements. Caution must be exercised to ensure that the improvement projects undertaken have a useful life at least as long as the duration of the debt service in order to justify the extended payback period. The type of programs that would be best suited for transportation improvements are:
State Capital Outlay Each year, the Louisiana Legislature reviews and prioritizes requests from local governments regarding capital projects. The amount of funding varies and funds can be awarded as cash funding, future bond funding, or future lines of credit (based upon assigned Funding Priority). Sewer and transportation projects are frequently funded through this manner. All approved projects are administered by the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control. The link to the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control website is: http://www.doa.louisiana.gov/FPC/fpcSiteIndex.htm#CapitalOutlay
Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) DOTD is the primary agency charged with maintaining and improving the State Highway System. Many of the projects listed above are on state routes. DOTD has a Statewide Transportation Improvement Program, or STIP. This program prioritizes projects to receive state and federal funding. Projects range from capacity improvements by adding lanes to simple safety projects consisting of shoulders, rumble strips, signage, etc. The DOTD also has a “Road Transfer Program” whereby ownership of a current state route is transferred to a local government in exchange for DOTD agreeing to undertake a priority project with a value equal to present value of 30 years future maintenance on the road being transferred. In other words, the local government is able to fund a current project by accepting a long term maintenance liability. The link to the DOTD website is: http://wwwsp.dotd.la.gov/Inside_LaDOTD/Divisions/Multimodal/STIP/Pages/default.aspx
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Bond Initiative Local governments are able to bond either general fund or special purpose revenue in order to fund capital improvement projects. Future tax revenues are pledged in order to receive a one-time lump sum to fund projects. Interest is paid on the principal balance based on the terms of the bond.
The link to the State Bond Commission website is: http://www.treasury.state.la.us/Home%20Pages/BondCommission.aspx?@Filter=BC2011
Economic Development Assistance Grants The Economic Development Administration (EDA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce offers funding opportunities for which infrastructure projects may be eligible. The Economic Development Assistance Program (EDAP) grants assist to leverage regional assets to support the implementation of regional economic development strategies designed to create jobs, leverage private capital, encourage economic development, and strengthen America’s ability to compete in the global marketplace. Funding is contingent upon upcoming fiscal year budget allocations. The link to the EDA website is: http://www.eda.gov/funding-opportunities/
Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) The Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program under the U.S. department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is a flexible program that provides communities with resources to address a wide range of unique community development needs. The CDBG program works to ensure decent affordable housing, to provide services to the most vulnerable in our communities, and to create jobs through the expansion and retention of businesses. CDBG is an important tool for helping local governments tackle serious challenges facing their communities. The link to the HUD website is: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/comm_planning/ communitydevelopment/programs
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CAMERON PARISH
Market Analysis | CAMERON PARISH
Market Analysis
ANNUAL NEW HOUSING DEMAND - CAMERON PARISH 30 20 10
DEMAND ANALYSIS
0 HOUSING UNITS
The jobs that will result from the major industrial projects in and around Cameron Parish represent a real opportunity for economic growth in housing development. Currently housing inventory does not exist to meet the needs of the anticipated housing market. Even if the housing inventory was sufficient, the lack of retail and commercial establishments may limit the potential for population growth in the Parish. Instead, those potential residents considering migrating to Cameron Parish must choose to live elsewhere — either Southeast Texas or Calcasieu Parish. Therefore, housing, along with increased retail and commercial development, will be critical.
-10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
THE JOBS THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE MAJOR INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS IN
-70
2014
AND AROUND CAMERON PARISH REPRESENT A REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH IN HOUSING DEVELOPMENT.
DEMAND DRIVERS The surge of industrial projects and returning residents are two major drivers of housing demand in Cameron Parish. According to the SWLA Projects Report, updated April 2015, the five LNG projects represent over 4,000 permanent jobs. By matching the economic drivers with the opportunity for housing and retail development, there is the potential to attract first time residents to Cameron Parish as well as returning residents. The overall modeled demand for Cameron is low. This could be significantly impacted by successful housing developments. If development momentum can be built, demand would likely increase to absorb all developed housing units.
DEMAND MODEL In order to predict what future demand may be, a statistical model was developed to help analyze historical trends, socioeconomic conditions, and future economic activity. In very simplistic terms, the model describes the most likely population scenario for the area assuming future behavior mimics the last five years. Because of this, the model should simply be one of the tools leaders use to inform decisions. It is by no means a deterministic predictor of the future. Each table represents incremental annual demand for a specific housing type, separated by price point. The price points were derived by analyzing historical trends and housing preferences within the area.
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2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2022
2021
2023
2024
YEAR
The ranges are based on breaking housing preferences down into quintiles for Southwest Louisiana. The quintiles from each parish were analyzed but were not statistically significant from the Regional figures —accordingly the same quintiles were used to analyze each parish. NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS ESTIMATED SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PRICE
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $100,000
-2
-2
0
0
0
-2
-3
-4
-3
-3
-4
$100,001 to $125,000
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
$125,001 to $175,000
-2
-1
0
0
0
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-3
$175,001 to $225,000
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
$225,001 to $300,000
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
> $300,000
-1
-1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
TOTAL
-8
-7
-1
-1
1
-8
-11
-15
-11
-11
-12
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
$601 to $800
0
-1
0
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
$801 to $1,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$1,001 to $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING RENTALS
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CAMERON PARISH | Market Analysis
MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (2-4 UNITS)
Market Analysis | CAMERON PARISH
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
$601 to $800
0
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
$801 to $1,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$1,001 to $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
-1
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-4
-3
-1
-3
-2
-6
-4
-3
-1
-2
-3
$601 to $800
-2
-2
0
-1
-1
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
$801 to $1,000
-1
-1
0
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
0
0
-1
$1,001 to $1,500
-1
-1
0
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
0
0
-1
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
-7
-7
-2
-5
-4
-12
-7
-7
-2
-4
-6
MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (>4 UNITS)
The overall demand for housing in Cameron Parish appears to be modest. This is not surprising given recent trends of slow outmigration. The combination of few available homes, difficulty obtaining financing and high insurance rates with an uncertain future causes many potential residents to look elsewhere. Given the low magnitude of the projected demand, it would be very easy for one development or project to really change the future outlook.
The demand for single family housing is a particular area of interest in developing strategies to shape the future. Traditional single family communities in Cameron Parish consisted of small clusters of homes or single homes in a more rural setting, rather than expansive neighborhoods found in suburban areas. Given the fact that housing developments will be driven by the surge in industrial development, one can surmise that newcomers may want to live near other newcomers. Currently, this option is not available in Cameron Parish. Concentrating or clustering new residents would also make additional retail and commercial development more viable by centralizing the demand rather than spreading it across the Parish. The demand predicted by the model for multi-family housing will be difficult for the market to meet without subsidies of some sort. This is because financing for residential investment properties is challenging to obtain. The risk profile warrants a much higher rate of return than most multi-family residential (MFR) projects can earn. The projected demand for MFR dwellings is likely to shift into single family homes, for both renters and purchasers, due to lack of available inventory. Without considering recent announced expansions and new projects, the overall demand for housing in Cameron Parish appears to be modest. This is not surprising given recent trends of slow outmigration. The combination of few available homes, difficulty obtaining financing, and high insurance rates with an uncertain future has caused potential residents to look elsewhere. Reversing the modest growth begins with planning for permanent housing solutions. This will posture the Parish in a positive manner to be ready when economic development occurs. The number of projected permanent jobs in Cameron Parish and the relative isolation from other population centers in southeast Texas and Calcasieu Parish will influence housing demand. The real question is whether or not the market perceives the potential rates of return to justify the risk inherent in housing development projects.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CAMERON PARISH
Supply Analysis | CAMERON PARISH
CURRENT INVENTORY
Supply Analysis Subsection Title
Cameron Parish has an estimated 2,482 occupied housing units (U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 American Community Survey). The majority of these units are two-, three- and four-bedroom single family residences. An estimated 91% of all units are owner-occupied, while the remaining 9% are renter-occupied. The abnormally high percentage of owner-occupied units (compared to state and
HISTORICAL ACTIVITY Prior to the 2000 census, Cameron Parish had a steady increase in population growing from 3,952 in 1920 to 9,260 in 1990. Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike three years later both came ashore destroying many of the communities in Cameron Parish. According to the 2000 United States Census, there were 9,991 people living in the Parish. Only 6,839 people were living in Cameron Parish for the 2010 United States Census; a 31.5% drop in population in those ten years. The 2013 estimate from the U. S. Bureau of the Census, Population Estimates Program shows another 1.4% drop from 2010. 10,000
9,336
POPULA TION
7,203
As of mid 2014, there were an estimated 29 single family residences available for purchase in Cameron Parish. The majority of these homes are located in Hackberry and just outside Lake Charles, Louisiana. The rental market is just as small with 1 single family residence listed as available in Cameron Parish. CAMERON PARISH MLS SALES ACTIVITY
9,991 9,260
8,194 8,000
national averages) is likely a reflection of the difficulty financing MFR and other investment properties.
6,909
6,054
6,839
6,000
6,244 3,952
4,288
4,000 3,952
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
YEAR
According to the 2000 U.S. Census, Cameron Parish has had an increase in housing units since at least 1970, with the largest being the 35.8% increase from 1970 to 1980 and the smallest being 6.1% from 1990 to 2000. The 2010 U.S. Census showed a 33% decrease in housing units, a loss of 1,700 homes. This loss is a reflection of the damage caused by Hurricanes Rita and Ike. That damage was exacerbated by difficulties in rebuilding. High insurance premiums and increased cost of construction to comply with stricter building regulations made it difficult to rebuild.
PLANNED PROJECTS Cameron Speaks! is a rental program with an option to purchase the dwelling after 5 years. The program currently has thirty-two 2- and 3-bedroom single family homes under construction that feature an open floor plan with an enhanced amenities package. The homes are professionally managed by Latter & Blum and will serve households at or below 80% and 120% of the Area Median Income (AMI). For example, a family of four in Cameron Parish, the 80% AMI would be $44,720/year and the 120% AMI would be $67,080/year. The program is currently taking applications with the first half of homes being made available in September 2014 and the remaining half 30 days after.
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CAMERON PARISH
Implementation Strategy | CAMERON PARISH
Implementation Strategy Current development activity is not suitable to meet all of the demand. Perhaps more importantly, demand could increase significantly if momentum is created by people moving into the Parish. Despite supply being reasonably close to the modeled demand, actual demand could be higher than projected based on recent project announcements. In order for Cameron Parish to realize its economic potential of these projects, families will need suitable housing options to encourage settlement in the Parish. Even if only 25% of the direct permanent workers from the southernmost projects choose to locate in Cameron Parish, that could mean a population growth of approximately 200 families. The lengthy drive time to south Cameron from Calcasieu Parish (approximately 45 minutes) enhances the appeal of local housing to newly locating employees.
and construction must not only meet International Building Code, but also High Wind Velocity Zone and elevation to meet FEMA’s Base Flood Elevation construction standards, so-called temporary housing built in Cameron must be built to permanent standards. The basic services and amenities that support quality of life, already found in parishes like Calcasieu, are not present currently in Cameron Parish. Without housing opportunities for construction workers (rooftops), Cameron Parish will struggle to provide these services to include grocery stores, restaurants, laundry mats, coffee shops, etc. Therefore, a combination of smaller scale accommodations and other innovative housing solutions such as maritime based housing options or others that can transition into permanent housing, available to permanent residents of the Parish is desired. Cameron Parish boasts more than 230,000 separate visitors to the Creole Nature Trail and the three wildlife refuges located within the parish. With only one 30 room motel and virtually no rental units available and a more than 90% owner occupied status, Cameron Parish is ripe for housing development. Cameron Parish government has worked diligently to attain good standing in the Federal Flood Insurance Program Community Rating System and will not consider any exceptions to construction that might risk that designation. The following are recommended objectives and implementation strategies for Cameron Parish Leaders to consider:
IN ORDER FOR CAMERON PARISH TO REALIZE ITS ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF THESE PROJECTS, FAMILIES WILL NEED SUITABLE HOUSING OPTIONS TO
ENCOURAGE SETTLEMENT IN THE PARISH.
Due to the difficulty for investors to obtain financing and the risks associated with regulatory insurance changes, the bulk of new housing stock should be in the form of single family homes. Those homes could be a combination of mobile homes, modular homes, and site built homes. In most cases, these homes will need to be elevated in order to meet code and insurance requirements. Due to higher cost of construction associated with elevated homes, resiliently constructed modular homes are likely to prove an attractive option to new homebuyers in the area, balancing overall appeal with economic realities. Because some of these new residents may be migrants from urbanized areas, multi-family housing should be considered as an option despite the difficulties and costs associated with such projects. The relatively high salaries associated with the new direct and indirect jobs may make higher end MFR attractive to a portion of the population. A real opportunity arising out of the economic growth is the potential to develop areas that are much more densely populated than traditional Cameron Parish development. If a concentration of population can be developed to a critical mass — perhaps as low as 500 new people, ancillary development in the commercial/retail sector may become viable. As additional retail and commercial activity takes place, such as restaurants and grocery stores, more people will be attracted to the area. This is a great example of activity breeding additional activity. The key, however, is the initial residential development. Commercial and retail establishments, even if they could be convinced to make the initial investment, are completely dependent on the patronage of the local residents. There is no doubt that in order for Cameron Parish to thrive, housing opportunities must be created for workers migrating to the area to fill the high paying jobs offered by industry as well as the indirect jobs that will be necessary to support that industry.
INCREASE CAMERON PARISH’S VISIBILITY TO POTENTIAL RESIDENTS xx Develop a marketing campaign to target potential new residents. The marketing campaign to include: - Proximity to high quality jobs; - Promotion of outdoor activities and the natural beauty of the Parish; - Local festivals and events; - Arts, cultural, and historic sites; and - Successes and available programs within the Cameron Parish public school system. xxApply to the Louisiana Development Ready Communities Program
ENSURE GROWTH IS SUPPORTED BY INFRASTRUCTURE xx Establish a community stakeholder committee (residents and business owners) to conduct a strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis for attracting new residents and residential housing development. Areas of assessment may include: - Development codes and regulations, permitting process; - Available parcels or properties for resale; and - Infrastructure (transportation, utilities, public services, emergency preparedness). xx Encourage community and Parish leaders to lobby regional telecommunications providers to develop plans for extending high-speed internet service along main transportation corridors.
Cameron Parish, specifically Cameron proper, is perhaps the opposite circumstance of the “short-term, but temporary, demand for housing”. Because Cameron Parish is located entirely in the Coastal Zone 133
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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CAMERON PARISH | Implementation Strategy

ENCOURAGE GROWTH WHILE PROTECTING QUALITY OF LIFE xx Develop a citizen-driven community master plan that establishes the following: - Visionary residential land uses and types for short-term and long-term housing solutions; - Identification of suitable areas of short-term and long-term housing within existing communities and or adjacent to industrial economic development projects; and - Development of a land use plan that balances future growth with existing natural conditions, available infrastructure, and limited developable land areas. xx Consider incentivizing/subsidizing development in the most resilient areas of the Parish. xx Develop programs to assist the elderly in maintaining and repairing their properties. xx Develop a program to assist elderly and disabled residents with acquiring elevators. xx Incentivize rental housing units to be incorporated into new developments. xx Require higher densities in new developments in order to establish enough residential mass to support and attract retail and commercial businesses.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
“
Housing in Cameron Parish presents a different set of circumstances than anywhere else in our region and should be addressed differently than in anywhere else in the region. With $35 billion in projects under construction in Cameron Parish, our reality is that these projects will not happen without people living here to first construct them and later operate them. The Housing Study has informed us, now we must take the information and make good decisions to shape our future with the Implementation Plan.
�
137 LJP
Clair Hebert Marceaux, PCED Director of Economic Development Cameron Parish Police Jury
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan LJP
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH — Jefferson Davis Parish is located in the southwest corner of the State in a region often referred to as the heart of the Cajun Prairie. It is the third largest parish in the Southwest Louisiana Region.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy LJP
SECTION TITLE JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Jefferson DavisTitle Housing Strategic Plan Subsection INTRODUCTION Jefferson Davis Parish is located in the southwest corner of the State in a region often referred to as the heart of the Cajun Prairie. Nestled between neighboring Calcasieu and Acadiana Parishes and the regional metropolitan areas of Lake Charles and Lafayette, Jefferson Davis Parish’s historical economic base has been rooted in the agricultural, public service, ship building, and oilfield support industries. According to the most recent US Census data, Jefferson Davis Parish is the 3rd largest parish in the Southwest Louisiana Region with a July 1, 2013 estimated population of 31,301 residents1 and the 34th most populated parish in the State of Louisiana.
Housing Strategic Plan | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
In February 2015, it was publicly announced that a new company was relocating to Jefferson Davis Parish. Metalplate Galvanizing is making a $9.75 million capital investment to develop a 50,000 square foot facility that will create 104 new direct jobs. Through hot-dip galvanizing to protect metal from corrosion, Metalplate Galvanizing serves customers in steel, petrochemical and other industries. The new plant will be the company’s seventh facility, and it will allow Metalplate to increase its volume and support new and existing customers in Louisiana and throughout the South. The Jefferson Davis Parish School District has consistently rated as one of the top districts in the Southwest Region and within the top tier of the State. In 2014, per the Louisiana Department of Education, out of the 71 school districts throughout the State, Jefferson Davis School District ranked 16th with a performance score of 97.5 and received a “B” letter grade. The performance ranking has improved every year since 2008.
SW LOUISIANA REGIONAL MAP
A key strength for Jefferson Davis Parish is its proximity to Calcasieu Parish LJP and the strong commuting tie with the Lake Charles labor market.
The economic development outlook has the potential to diversify in the near future due to the construction and completion of proposed economic development projects in the Region. The current economic base is served by the two major transportation corridors (vehicular and rail lines). Major vehicular corridors include US Interstate 10 and LA Hwy 90 (east-west) and LA Hwy 99 and LA Hwy 14/LA Hwy 26 (north-south). Rail line corridors include Union Pacific Railway, BNSF, and Southern Pacific Railway. A third transportation corridor via water provides access to the shallow draft Port of Mermentau with connectivity to the Intracoastal Waterway.
_______________________________________ 1 July 1, 2013 Population Estimate, U.S. Census Bureau 139
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Jefferson Davis Parish and the City of Jennings will soon be the home for a new Southwest Louisiana Technical Community College (SOWELA) facility. The SOWELA facility, will be located on 10 acres next to Jennings High School and will feature programs and space to meet the training needs of the local and regional industries. This new facility as part of the main campus in Lake Charles, continues to be among the largest and most progressive post-secondary technical colleges in the State of Louisiana. SOWELA provides technical training for regional employers and assists with the Region’s vision for economic development, vitality, and sustainability. Employees within the economic base industries are generally concentrated within the rural communities of the Parish. The communities of Jennings and Welsh located along the transportation corridors historically have been the most populated within the Parish. Jennings is home to Parish governmental offices, the Parish school board, and the Jennings American Legion Hospital, which are all major employment centers Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH | Housing Strategic Plan
Housing Strategic Plan | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
for the Parish. The Town of Welsh may be a small rural town, but the community offers a variety of local services such as a highly rated fire department, a medical center with a variety of doctor’s offices, an airport for small planes, an excellent police department, a residential nursing home, a community center facility, and parks & recreational opportunities. Lake Arthur, the southernmost town in the Parish, is located on the lake of the same name. It is fed by the Mermentau River from the north and runs through Cameron Parish to the jetties in Grand Chenier. LEEVAC Shipyards, oil companies, and multiple grain companies utilize the river to move vessels, grain, and rock though the river to the Intracoastal Canal and then to the world. The lake is used for recreation including boating, fishing and hunting. It boasts a restaurant, boardwalk, and a public park that is the scene of a local festival celebrating life on the water each June. Other communities in the Parish include Elton, which borders Allen Parish and is known for its ties to the Coushatta Indian Reservation, and the Village of Fenton, located on LA Hwy. 165, one of the main north-south routes in the state. JEFFERSON DAVIS HISTORICAL POPULATION 35,000 32,168 29,825
POPULA TION
30,000
30,722
31,435
31,594
29,554
24,191
20,000 18,999
1920
OVERALL ANNUAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
31,477
31,407
31,956
32,330
32,626
32,368
32,303
32,097
32,107
32,240
32,162
Population projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC
A key strength for Jefferson Davis Parish is its proximity to Calcasieu Parish and the strong commuting tie with the Lake Charles employment market. The extensive economic development that will take place in the Lake Charles area has the potential to rewrite the earlier projection. Modeling of the place of residence for new workers moving into the Region suggests that Jefferson Davis Parish stands to attract residents and grow rather than decline. Population growth due to the influx of workers filling jobs in the Region is projected to be 625 new residents in 2016 and 1,476 new residents by 2024.3 In terms of households, a total of 249 new households are expected to move to Jefferson Davis Parish by 2016 with a total of 588 arriving by 2024.
FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH, THE PROJECTED POPULATION GAINS FROM
19,765
1930
2014
In addition, the in-migration of workers will increase demand for educational services. This is important because the population projection based on current trends points to a decline of school age and working age residents. A second important aspect of these projections is that the population increase will be moderate, which allows for controlled growth.
26,298 25,000
POPULATION IMPACT FROM REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REVERSE THE TREND OF POPULATION LOSS 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
AND SET THE PARISH ON A PATH TO GROWTH.
2010
YEAR
The historical population of the Parish is shown on the chart above. Overall population has been relatively flat since the 1960s. More specifically, there has been almost no population change since the 1990 Census. From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, Jefferson Davis Parish lost 293 residents. The loss was due exclusively to net outmigration—more residents moving out of the Parish than moving into the Parish. The Parish lost 521 residents due to net outmigration. This loss of population via outmigration was partially offset by a small amount of natural increase—the number of births less the number of deaths. Without the major economic development projects and solely using historical data and current trends, the population of Jefferson Davis Parish is projected to experience a small population loss over the next decade. Between 2015 and 2024, Jefferson Davis Parish is projected to lose 844 residents or 2.7% of its current population.2 The Parish is projected to lose 237 children (people age 0-17). Working age adults (age 18 to 64) will decline by 1,443 residents. In contrast, the retirement age population (age 65 and over) is projected to grow by 836 people. Following the current demographic trends, the Parish population will continue to age in place. The decline in families with children threaten the long term sustainability of the current population size. This trend can change if strategies such as housing type diversity and affordability are put in place to attract young families to the area. _______________________________________ 2 Population Projections developed by Louisiana Demographics, LLC 141
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
In terms of race and ethnicity, the majority of the Jefferson Davis Parish is Nonhispanic White (78.4%).4 Nonhispanic African Americans comprise 17.0% of the population. Hispanic residents account for 2.0% of the population. As the area gains migrants from other areas, Jefferson Davis will likely experience a limited increase in racial and ethnic diversify. However, it is important to note that the magnitude of the total population increase is not large enough to result in a major shift in racial and ethnic composition. After incorporating the increased population attributable to the economic development projects in the Region, it is clear that Jefferson Davis will experience a reversal from population loss to gain. Housing statistics indicate that the Parish has a low vacancy rate among owner occupied homes—1.3% for Jefferson Davis Parish compared to 2.0% for Louisiana.5 Rental vacancy rates are one-half that of the statewide average—4.1% for Jefferson Davis Parish compared to 8.4% for Louisiana. Given that 76.5% of all housing units in the Parish are owner occupied, it is clear that Jefferson Davis Parish needs to increase single family housing units as well as accommodate the growing aging population.
_______________________________________ Projections of the location of new population due to new employment from the SWLA Regional Impact Study 4 July 1, 2013 Population Estimates by Age, Race, Sex, and Hispanic Origin, U.S. Census Bureau 5 2008-2012 American Community Survey 3
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
environmental conditions and available infrastructure while adhering to resiliency strategies. Generally the available utility, transportation, cultural, and social infrastructure has been provided around the Cities of Jennings, Welsh, Lake Arthur, and the Town of Elton. Utilization of the available infrastructure within these communities is the focus of this strategic plan.
LAND DEVELOPMENT
LAND DEVELOPMENT CODE REVIEW
Recent land development within Jefferson Davis Parish has been along the I-10 corridor near the western Parish line. Typically, lots are provided with acreages between 3 to 5 acres and include onsite individual sanitary sewer treatment due to the lack of a regional sanitary sewer collection system and wastewater treatment infrastructure. Over time these systems will become a maintenance issue if not maintained properly as required by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH). Future residential housing developments should provide on-site sanitary treatment facilities or be required to tie into a community wastewater treatment facility. Upgrades to community wastewater treatment facilities may be required to accommodate future development.
Jefferson Davis Parish is the only parish in the Southwest Louisiana Region other than Calcasieu Parish that has a zoning ordinance for the unincorporated areas that defines different zoning districts. Master zoning plans are a good tool for resiliency because they assist local officials and developers understand where they want and do not want to grow. Jefferson Davis Parish’s official zoning map is located at the Jefferson Davis Parish Clerk of Court office and can only be viewed in person. Jefferson Davis Parish’s table showing allowable uses for these different zoning districts can be obtained by contacting the Parish Police Jury. JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH 100 YEAR FLOOD ZONE
The Town of Welsh is one Jefferson Davis Parish community that has been proactive in the upgrades to its wastewater system. In March 2015, the Town of Welsh received an approval letter from the State of Louisiana’s FY 2014 Louisiana Community Block Grant (LCDBG) program for wastewater improvements. The $445,000 grant will allow for a rehabilitation of an existing pump station and repair of a collapsed line. These improvements will greatly add to the value of the existing infrastructure. The Town of Lake Arthur recently completed a FY 2014 Louisiana Community Development Block Grant (LCDBG) to repair wastewater lines and painted and coated the inside of the water tower currently serving Lake Arthur. The improvements are ongoing and will significantly improve the water and wastewater systems in the Town.
THE LACK OF RESIDENTIAL HOUSING DIVERSITY IS A LEADING INDICATOR IN THE DIFFICULTIES IN ATTRACTING NEW POPULATION WITHIN THE PARISH. The lack of residential housing diversity is a leading indicator in the difficulties in attracting new population within the Parish. While interviewing local community leaders, a current need for high quality housing units other than single family detached structures was expressed. Along with the current demand and the expectation of new industry in the Region, housing type diversity needs to be expanded. Housing type diversity is a key element for the Parish to posture itself in a positive manner for future growth. This is not accomplished overnight as it will require a collaborative master plan effort between the Parish and its municipalities to provide the framework that is attractive for developers and future residents. If no action is taken, then development will occur in an unplanned manner adding strain to existing infrastructure and resources resulting in lost opportunities for community improvements and economic growth. Alternatively, growth could bypass the Parish altogether.
ZONE AE - 100 Year Flood Plain With Base Flood Elevation ZONE A - 100 Year Flood Plain With No Base Flood Elevation
The future growth and development required within Jefferson Davis Parish to accommodate the potential new households should be planned in a sustainable manner that complements the existing 143
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
ZONE VE - 100 Year Flood Plain With Base Flood Elevation and Velocity
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Resiliency Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
The ordinance does not have drainage design criteria that requires analyzing potential adverse impact to adjacent properties. The code includes the standard flood prevention section that refers to the State statute that delegates the responsibility of local government units to adopt regulations designed to minimize flood losses.
Subsection Title
Although Jefferson Davis Parish is not directly connected to the Gulf of Mexico and is not within the designated Department of Natural Resources Coastal Zone, it has the potential to be vulnerable to seasonal tropical storms due to existing low elevations and threats of flooding. Over 44.8% of the Parish is within a Special Flood Hazard Area.
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH LAND DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
Jefferson Davis Parish is not at risk for tidal storm surge related flooding. Therefore, the stricter building codes that Cameron Parish and some parts of Calcasieu Parish use to mitigate damage due to wave action during a storm event do not apply. Jefferson Davis Parish is similar to the other Southwest Louisiana Region Parishes in that the minimum finished floor elevation is required to be set to at least an elevation equal to the 100 year base flood elevation. This requirement is consistent with all other SWLA Parishes, with the exception of Calcasieu Parish where the minimum finished floor elevation is required to be at least 1 foot above the 100 year flood elevation.
Developer brings the following items to Parish Preliminary Engineer for Plat submitted review to Police Jury for approval if 1. Preliminary Plat recommended 2. Letter of for approval by approval of Parish Engineer sewer disposal methods from DHH
If approved, subdivision is constructed
Final Plat submitted to Parish Engineer for approval.
Final Plat submitted to police jury for approval if approved by Parish Engineer
Another recommendation for Jefferson Davis Parish is to include an ordinance that would protect the available floodplain storage volume. This type of ordinance is commonly referred to as “floodplain fill mitigation” because it will require a developer to mitigate, or to offset, filling up an area with dirt that previously held water during a flooding event.
RECOMMENDATIONS TO MAKE PARISH INFRASTRUCTURE MORE RESILIENT (MITIGATE RISKS OF PUBLICLY FUNDED INFRASTRUCTURE, SPEED UP RE-BUILDING IN CORRECT PLACES) DUE TO HURRICANES AND HURRICANE INDUCED FLOODING It would be ideal for Jefferson Davis Parish to determine which areas where they would encourage development. This would require creating a master land use plan that considers avoiding areas that are more prone to flooding. An evaluation of the current zoning plan should also be conducted to determine if recommended land uses are in sync with existing zoning and to make suggestions for possible zoning changes to align with recommended resiliency principles and strategies. The suitability models in the Web Portal could be one tool that assists.
RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL Final Plat recorded at Parish Clerk of Court
LAND DEVELOPMENT ORDINANCE RECOMMENDATIONS Historically, there has been minimal land development activity in the unincorporated portion of Jefferson Davis Parish. However, updating the ordinances to shape growth prior to any future increase in development activity should be considered to ensure that Jefferson Davis Parish can protect the overall character of the area. Doing so would also provide an opportunity to implement resiliency concepts such as adding freeboard to the minimum finished floor elevations and require post developed runoff rates from developments to be limited to pre-developed runoff rates. One recommendation to the land development ordinance is to require the finished floor elevations of structures to be higher than, rather than equal to, the highest of the following criteria: the 100 year base flood elevation, the nearest sanitary sewer manhole, the centerline of adjacent roadway, or maximum 145
recorded inundation. Adding this requirement into the land ordinances is an item that increases a community’s insurance rating, which reduces flood insurance premiums, and decreases the risk for a structure to be flooded.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
The residential suitability model for Jefferson Davis Parish was aimed at infill and fringe development for larger residential projects that have reasonable access to basic services, infrastructure, and desirable community amenities. This model is a tool and starting point to determine where potential and suitable areas for development can occur. It is not a substitute for the due diligence process. Development of the residential suitability model comprised many layers and data sets. Each of the data sets were given values in order to conduct a composite score analysis. Composite scores ranged from .093 (low suitability) to 9.45 (high suitability). The core components of the residential suitability model include the following: • Aerial imagery; • Existing land cover classifications; • Transportation corridors; • Existing topographic elevations; • Emergency preparedness such as fire, police, and health care locations; • Proximity to DEQ air permitted emission locations; • FEMA Firm flood plain locations; • Historical records of inundation from Hurricanes Rita and Ike; • Proximity to community facilities such as schools, churches, cemeteries, post offices, libraries, shopping centers, grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies; and • Proximity to water and wastewater infrastructure. Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
Subsection Title
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH RESIDENTIAL SUITABILITY MODEL
Jefferson Davis Parish scored well (High Suitability) in locations around existing communities. Due to the vastness of the local agricultural industry, lack of rural amenity clustering, and large areas within Special Flood Hazard Areas, the remaining areas of the parish scored lower (Low Suitability). The portion of the Parish south of I-10 has water infrastructure and community amenities spread out evenly but scores poorly because of the reasons mentioned before. Jennings and Lake Arthur, however, scored very well in the model as they meet many of the criteria, including having both water and sewer data available. Elton, which had sewer data but not water data, scored lower but still well. Parts of Iowa that scored well overlapped into Jefferson Davis around the 165/I-10 intersection. A further analysis within the Parish was conducted to identify potential areas for residential development within the municipals boundaries of Jennings, Welsh, Lake Arthur, and Elton. The models are referred to as Potential Residential Areas of Development (PRAD). The components of the PRAD utilized GIS layers which include criteria of suitable land types from the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers (excluding areas of wetlands, already developed, and flood zone). These data areas fall within or intersect areas that score between 6.7 and 9.45 on the Existing Infrastructure and Community Amenity Core Residential Suitability Model. The four sub-categories of potential utility access are defined:
Resiliency Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
CITY OF JENNINGS PRAD MODEL
CITY OF WELSH PRAD MODEL
Awaiting Welsh PRAD Model
• PRAD with water and sewer, • PRAD with water and no sewer, • PRAD with sewer and no water, • PRAD with no water and no sewer. 147
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CITY OF LAKE ARTHUR PRAD MODEL
Subsection Title
Resiliency Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
These PRADs and their sub-categories are subsequently intersected with two additional models to highlight areas that are within an ideal drive time target of 8 to 22 minutes to the projects providing the majority of new direct employment in the Region and those areas that provide favorable public schooling (with capacity) throughout all grade levels. A PRAD layer for areas in urbanized zones that scored well on the core model and were classified as “Woody Wetlands” by the 2013 USDA Cropland Data Layers is available to note areas that need further investigation. These areas should be given consideration as urban habitat zones, municipal parks, recreation, or residential developments depending on the site conditions. The PRAD analysis indicates that there are some areas around the incorporated areas that do not have access to existing water and/or sanitary sewer. This is not to be interpreted as not having enough capacity, it just simply means that there are no utility lines at these sites. This is not uncommon as developers are typically required to install the additional lines as needed to connect to the town’s existing water and sanitary sewer systems. Additionally, in some areas sewer and water data was not available at the time of publication. Further research should be done by interested parties to verify availability of utilities. A recommendation for municipalities to consider is if they want to encourage growth in a particular area, then they could install the water and sewer lines in advance of development.
CITY OF ELTON PRAD MODEL
Because of the nature of the land use in Jefferson Davis being mostly agricultural, many large areas in and around the towns that scored well were picked up in the PRAD analysis. Welsh, due to large areas of flood zone and lack of community amenities, did not score well in the model. Jennings shows the most potential for fringe development through the PRAD analysis. Notably, the southwestern portion of the city, and the area just beyond the city limits, appear to be poised to support residential growth. Some of these areas on the north side of I-10 are large enough and located in such a way that they could support a Planned Unit Development or some other type of mixed use development. It is important to recognize that the suitability and PRAD analysis take into account a variety of factors regarding housing choice including proximity to work, commercial/retail access, and distance to schools, etc. Given the overall rural character of Jefferson Davis Parish, many of the factors that result in lower suitability scores are precisely the qualities that make the more rural areas of Jefferson Davis Parish attractive for development. The challenge for local leadership will become clear as growth opportunities present themselves. Choices must be made between developing highly suitable areas in or adjacent to communities or developing outside of existing communities maintaining the smalltown, rural feel of the Parish. The suitability analysis and PRAD illustrations are incorporated into the online SWLA Alliance Housing & Community Development Web Portal as a Map Tool. Greater evaluation and due diligence as well as coordination with approving jurisdictional bodies is highly recommended for developers prior to implementing or purchasing of property for future development.
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH | Resiliency Analysis
IDENTIFY INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS The unincorporated area of Jefferson Davis Parish does not have a regional sanitary sewer system. The few developments that do exist typically have lots that are large enough to allow use of small individual treatment systems. The towns have regional sewer systems. Their existing systems have enough capacity to accommodate their small projected residential needs. However, these towns have aging systems that will need to be improved and maintained regardless of accommodating new housing needs or not. The use of community sewer systems should be required for subdivisions where the lot density supports the upfront investment.
Much of the land identified as attractive through the PRAD analysis for the city of Jennings is currently landlocked. Additional arterial streets may be necessary to provide adequate transportation access.
IDENTIFY POTENTIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING SOURCES The type of programs that would be best suited for water and sanitary sewer improvements are:
Clean Water State Revolving Loan Program This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for new or needed upgrades for wastewater facilities. The loan term is typically 20 years with interest rates that are less than 1%. The program requires an application to LDEQ. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDEQ website is: http://www.deq.louisiana.gov/portal/tabid/2148/Default.aspx
Drinking Water Revolving Loan Fund This program is administered by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals (LDHH) and it provides a low interest loan for communities for construction of new or needed upgrades of water treatment facilities. The program requires an application to LDHH. The selection process is competitive and the awarded funds are distributed annually. The link to the LDHH website is: http://new.dhh.louisiana.gov/index.cfm/page/431/n/285
Resiliency Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
All of these funding sources are in the form of loans – it is incumbent on the borrower to develop a revenue stream large enough to meet the debt service requirements. Typically the revenue comes in the form of user fees or taxes. These programs do have the benefit of minimizing the upfront capital contribution which makes it easier to finance larger capital improvements. Caution must be exercised to ensure that the improvement projects undertaken have a useful life at least as long as the duration of the debt service in order to justify the extended payback period. The type of programs that would best suited for transportation improvements are:
State Capital Outlay Each year, the Louisiana Legislature reviews and prioritizes requests from local governments regarding capital projects. The amount of funding varies and funds can be awarded as cash funding, future bond funding, or future lines of credit (based upon assigned Funding Priority). Sewer and transportation projects are frequently funded through this manner. All approved projects are administered by the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control. The link to the State Office of Facilities Planning and Control website is: http://www.doa.louisiana.gov/FPC/fpcSiteIndex.htm#CapitalOutlay
Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) DOTD is the primary agency charged with maintaining and improving the State Highway System. Many of the projects listed above are on state routes. DOTD has a Statewide Transportation Improvement Program, or STIP. This program prioritizes projects to receive state and federal funding. Projects range from capacity improvements by adding lanes to simple safety projects consisting of shoulders, rumble strips, signage, etc. The DOTD also has a “Road Transfer Program” whereby ownership of a current state route is transferred to a local government in exchange for DOTD agreeing to undertake a priority project with a value equal to present value of 30 years future maintenance on the road being transferred. In other words, the local government is able to fund a current project by accepting a long term maintenance liability. The link to the DOTD website is: http://wwwsp.dotd.la.gov/Inside_LaDOTD/Divisions/Multimodal/STIP/Pages/default.aspx
Water and Waste Disposal Loans and Grants This program is administered by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The program uses a revolving loan fund for water and waste disposal systems in rural areas and towns with populations of 10,000 or less. It is a continual application process with applications submitted to USDA State and local RDA Offices. The link to the USDA website is: http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/UWP-dispdirectloansgrants.htm
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Resiliency Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Bond Initiative Local governments are able to bond either general fund or special purpose revenue in order to fund capital improvement projects. Future tax revenues are pledged in order to receive a one-time lump sum to fund projects. Interest is paid on the principal balance based on the terms of the bond.
The link to the State Bond Commission website is: http://www.treasury.state.la.us/Home%20Pages/BondCommission.aspx?@Filter=BC2011
Economic Development Assistance Grants The Economic Development Administration (EDA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce offers funding opportunities for which infrastructure projects may be eligible. The Economic Development Assistance Program (EDAP) grants assist to leverage regional assets to support the implementation of regional economic development strategies designed to create jobs, leverage private capital, encourage economic development, and strengthen America’s ability to compete in the global marketplace. Funding is contingent upon upcoming fiscal year budget allocations. The link to the EDA website is: http://www.eda.gov/funding-opportunities/
Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) The Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program under the U.S. department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is a flexible program that provides communities with resources to address a wide range of unique community development needs. The CDBG program works to ensure decent affordable housing, to provide services to the most vulnerable in our communities, and to create jobs through the expansion and retention of businesses. CDBG is an important tool for helping local governments tackle serious challenges facing their communities. The link to the HUD website is: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/comm_planning/ communitydevelopment/programs
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Market Analysis DEMAND DRIVERS Jefferson Davis Parish has a prime economic development advantage—Interstate 10 runs right through the middle of the Parish, giving companies easy access to a major transportation artery. The Parish is also located in between the metropolitan areas of Lake Charles and Lafayette. The recently developed AgriIndustrial Park near Lacassine factors favorably into the overall employment, and thus housing, projections. Beyond the ancillary impacts of the petrochemical projects in Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes, there are several projects within Jefferson Davis Parish that may prove to be long term stimuli to the economy. Those include an expansion at LEEVAC Shipyard , Metalplate Galvanizing, Zagis cotton spinning, BNSF and continued investments by Louisiana Spirits.
THERE ARE SEVERAL PROJECTS WITHIN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH THAT MAY PROVE TO BE LONG TERM STIMULI TO THE ECONOMY.
An additional consideration when analyzing the overall market demand in Jefferson Davis Parish should be the aging population. The demographic projections for the Parish indicate that the population of people aged 65 and older will increase by almost 800 between the years 2015 and 2025. This makes it vital that housing strategies be developed to address this aging generation’s needs and preferences as they continue to change.
DEMAND MODEL In order to predict what future demand may be, a statistical model was developed to help analyze historical trends, socioeconomic conditions, and future economic activity. In very simplistic terms, the model describes the most likely population scenario for the area assuming future behavior mimics the last five years. Because of this, the model should be only one of the tools leaders use to inform decisions. It is by no means a deterministic predictor of the future. The modeled demand for single family housing predicts the highest demand for housing in the sub$100,000 market. This is somewhat surprising considering the median family income for the Parish is $42,907, about $7,000 less than the national average, and considering the next highest demand for housing is in the $125,001 - $175,000 market. Demand in other single family categories are modest in comparison, but are still relatively high considering the median family income. Given the rural character retained by much of the Parish, it is conceivable that much of the demand at the higher price points would be met by custom construction on individual homesteads.
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Market Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
It is worth noting that given the relatively high affordability index for Jefferson Davis Parish of 2.72, it is very possible that actual demand will manifest at price points higher than those predicted by the model. Low density rental demand, both single family and multifamily, is relatively low. The demand is evenly distributed among the price points for single family housing rentals, but the majority of demand for multifamily housing rentals lies in the lowest price market. Actual demand will most likely shift based upon availability. If availability is limited at the lower price points, it can be reasoned that overall rent stress in the Parish would increase. NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS ESTIMATED SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING PRICE
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $100,000
-3
-3
36
31
31
-7
-2
-14
0
8
-1
$100,001 to $125,000
-1
-1
10
9
9
-2
-1
-4
0
2
0
$125,001 to $175,000
-2
-2
25
22
22
-5
-1
-10
0
6
-1
$175,001 to $225,000
-2
-2
18
16
16
-3
-1
-7
0
4
-1
$225,001 to $300,000
-1
-1
13
12
11
-2
-1
-5
0
3
0
> $300,000
-1
-1
15
13
13
-3
-1
-6
0
4
-1
-10
-10
118
103
102
-21
-6
-47
-1
27
-4
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-2
-2
10
7
5
-7
-2
-5
-1
2
-2
$601 to $800
-1
-1
5
3
2
-3
-1
-2
0
1
-1
$801 to $1,000
-1
-1
2
2
1
-2
-1
-1
0
0
-1
$1,001 to $1,500
0
0
2
1
1
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
-4
-5
20
13
10
-13
-4
-10
-1
4
-5
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-2
-2
8
5
4
-5
-2
-4
-1
1
-2
$601 to $800
-1
-1
3
2
2
-2
-1
-2
0
1
-1
$801 to $1,000
0
-1
2
1
1
-1
0
-1
0
0
-1
$1,001 to $1,500
0
0
2
1
1
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
> $1,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
-4
-4
15
10
7
-10
-4
-8
-1
3
-4
TOTAL
SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING RENTALS
MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (2-4 UNITS)
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Market Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
The high density multi-family market in Jefferson Davis Parish is projected to grow in 2016 and 2017 followed by some decline. The projected decline is the result of people moving into home ownership that are unable/unwilling to do so upon initial relocation into the Parish that become homeowners in subsequent years. The decline predicted in the model is not likely to manifest itself. It is believed that there is unidentified demand currently due to lack of available housing. Those people that would otherwise choose to live in multi-family housing are potentially living in other areas and commuting into the Parish for work. MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING (>4 UNITS)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0 to $600
-5
-4
34
12
0
-30
-6
-9
4
10
-9
$601 to $800
-2
-2
15
5
0
-14
-3
-4
2
4
-4
$801 to $1,000
-1
-1
8
3
0
-7
-2
-2
1
2
-2
$1,001 to $1,500
-1
-1
7
2
0
-6
-1
-2
1
2
-2
> $1,500
0
0
2
1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
-10
-9
66
23
-1
-58
-12
-17
7
19
-18
TOTAL
The modeled demand for single family housing predicts the highest demand for housing in the sub-$100,000 market.
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SECTION TITLE JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Jennings Pull-OutSubsection Plan | JEFFERSON Title | SECTION DAVIS PARISH TITLE
Jennings Pull-Out Subsection TitlePlan OVERVIEW
ARCHITECTURE
The City of Jennings is located in the eastern part of the Parish along the Interstate 10 corridor. The majority of the City’s core has developed south of Interstate 10 where Hwy 90 and the BNSF Railway parallel one another transecting the City in an east to west manner. Named after Jennings McComb, who was a railroad contractor, the City of Jennings was settled in the late 1800s mostly by mid-westerners who farmed the fertile land with crops they were familiar with back in the Midwest. During this time, settlers also experimented with techniques for farming rice. By the mid 1890s, this region of the Cajun Prairie, was home to over 1,000 acres of rice crops in and around Jennings.
According to the 2010 US Census, there are approximately 4,432 housing units in Jennings. Approximately 3,900 units are occupied (either owner or renter) and approximately 532 vacant. The majority of the housing units are single family residential (attached and detached) structures.
This agriculture growth and economic fortune is not the only historical significance for Jennings. In 1901, the City is credited with the first active oil well in the state operated by W. Scott Heywood, who organized the Jennings Oil Company. The first well was drilled near a depth of 1,000 feet without success but Mr. Heywood encouraged his men to keep drilling. Ultimately oil was discovered at 1,700 feet and began pumping roughly 7,000 barrels of oil per day.
Since the City of Jennings and Jefferson Davis Parish exist in a rural setting, most homes were built with little to no code requirements as structures were built to meet housing needs and construction was performed in numerous methods and with available materials.
During the 20th century the City of Jennings prospered as a regional rural community as the railroad, agriculture, and oil industry brought a diversity of cultures into the Region.
To gain an understanding of existing housing types in Jennings, one must have a general understanding of home construction in the United States during the last century. A detailed summary of American Housing 1900 – 2000 can be viewed in Appendix A.
Structures built from the 1900s to the 1950s were built with less than 1,000 square feet, were typically one to two-stories in height, with two or three bedrooms, and 0 to 1 bathroom. Foundations were typically wooden beam construction or brick pillars with a wooden floor creating a crawl space above the existing grade. Even though housing standards were developed as early as the 1920s, federal housing codes were first introduced in 1949 as home construction was standardized with new materials and techniques. Home construction in the 1960s to the 1980s included wooden frame construction on concrete slabs and incorporated carports as the norm for protecting vehicles from outside conditions. House sizes increased during this timeframe as well to accommodate for larger families and greater amenities. From the 1990s to 2008, new housing starts increased dramatically across the nation as family incomes increased and homeownership financing diversified and became accessible to a greater number of qualifying homeowners. Residential structures grew in size averaging over 2,000 square feet with minimum of 2 bathrooms and 3 bedrooms. Enclosed garages were also common if not expected with new construction. Within the City of Jennings, the majority of the housing stock is within the range of 25 to 50 years in age. Between 2007 and 2010, there have been a total of 40 building permits issued. It is unknown at this time what percentage is new construction versus repair/renovation/additions to existing structures. The age of the current housing stock within the City suggests that home maintenance/ repair is a reoccurring item required by property owners to ensure safety and aesthetics to current structures.
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH | Pull-Out-Plan
Jennings Pull-Out Plan | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Subsection Title DEMOGRAPHICS
The City of Jennings is the Parish Seat of Jefferson Davis Parish and is not part of a metropolitan or micropolitan area. The July 1, 2013 estimated population of Jennings was 10,188 residents.6 From April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013, the City lost 195 residents. Jennings is likely to see a period of growth resulting from regional employment growth. Modeling suggests that Jennings could see a population growth of 216 people by 2016 with a total of 508 by 2024. This results in a gain of 202 new households in the City. This is about a 5% overall increase in population. While 5% is a relatively modest growth rate, it is important as it could serve as a platform for the City to continue growth into the future. These finding suggest a decline in the demand for public education. Moreover, the ratio of working age individuals to retirement age residents shrink over time. The population projections for Jennings follow a similar pattern to those for Jefferson Davis Parish. Population growth from proposed regional economic development activities will have an important impact on Jennings. In terms of households, new population growth will result in 274 new households moving to Jennings by 2021. The projected population gains from economic development activities will have an important impact on Jennings by reversing current loss trends. Jennings will likely attract new families with young children. Similar to the broader trends in Jefferson Davis Parish, the gains enjoyed by Jennings will not overwhelm existing social and economic infrastructure (e.g. churches,
In terms of race and ethnicity, the majority of Jennings is Nonhispanic White (67.5%).7 Nonhispanic African Americans comprise 28.3% of the population. Hispanic residents account for 1.9% of the population. Compared to Jefferson Davis Parish, Jennings is more racially and ethnically diverse. Over the next decade, the percent of the population that is Nonhispanic White will decrease due to the influx of new migrants. In addition, race and ethnic group differences in fertility will influence the diversity of the child population. Given the population change due to regional employment growth, Jennings will experience a manageable level of growth over the next decade. In terms of housing, statistics indicate that the City has a vacancy rate equivalent to the State average among owner occupied homes—2.3% for Jennings compared to 2.0% for Louisiana.8 However, rental vacancy rates are lower than the statewide average—4.8% for Jennings compared to 8.4% for Louisiana. Based on the growth in households expected between 2014 and 2021, Jennings will need to add single family homes to accommodate new migrants to the area. Jennings may also be an attractive area for migrants because it has one of the best ranked public school systems in the five parish region. Given the growth in the average rate of vacancy for owner occupied units, Jennings may benefit from the addition of a limited number of single family units marketed to homeowners. However, the greater housing need may be for rentals. At present only 60.5% of housing units in Jennings are owner occupied. This is below the State average of 67.4%. The relatively low vacancy rate may point to the need for additional rental housing units.
schools). Rather, the addition of new residents will offset population losses.
Population growth from proposed regional economic development activities will have an important impact on Jennings.
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_______________________________________ 6 July 1, 2013 Population Estimate, U.S. Census Bureau 161
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_______________________________________ 2010 Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau 8 2008-2012 American Community Survey 7
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Supply Analysis | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Supply Analysis Construction activity in the City of Jennings has been low recently, which is not surprising considering the relatively flat population over an extended period. The City provided permitting data from October 2012 to October 2014. During that time, the following new construction permits were issued:
3
22
32
Manufactured/Mobile Homes
Single Family Homes
Multi-Family Homes
The low amount of manufactured homes is somewhat surprising. It is common in rural areas of Louisiana for there to be a higher ratio of manufactured homes to site built homes. This shows a demand for higher cost sites in and around the City. Real Estate MLS reports indicate a relatively high activity of transactions. Since November of 2011, there have been 308 recorded sales in the MLS system. Currently there are 94 homes listed for sale in the MLS system, ranging in price from $15,000 - $300,515. Listings and previous sales are depicted in the figure below. Active listings are shown in red and previous sales are yellow. JEFFERSON PARISH MLS SALES ACTIVITY
As with many areas in the Southwest Region of the State, Jennings is very rural in nature. As a result, it is possible that other homes in the area are for sale, either through real estate agents not using MLS or for sale by owner. The scarcity of available homes in the area has the potential to inhibit the growth of Jennings, considering the amount of available listings is almost one-seventh of the amount of transactions over the last 3 to 4 years. The commonly used statistic of “months inventory� is difficult to apply in this situation as the lack of inventory has likely curtailed sales transactions. Accordingly, the statistic would overestimate the relationship between inventory and true market-sales demand. When considering the relatively low growth projections for the City of Jennings and Jefferson Davis Parish, significant investment in new housing stock may not be necessary. However, the location of the City, between two major metropolitan areas in Lafayette and Lake Charles and bisected by I-10, makes it easy to see the potential for growth. The possibility of new industrial developments brings the need for more housing with workers relocating to the area. The amount of public services in the Jennings area make it easy for development with a relatively low cost of growth compared to other places without infrastructure or service capacity. In order to make sure that the housing market in Jefferson Davis Parish remains stable, new homes must be constructed. The housing model suggests that new housing should be located in areas reasonably proximate to employment centers. Another possibility for development would be due to the nature of the land use being mostly agricultural. Jennings shows high potential for fringe agricultural development through the PRAD analysis. Modeled demand forecasts are as follows: ANNUAL NEW HOUSING DEMAND - JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH 250 200
HOUSING UNITS
150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
YEAR
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH | Supply Analysis
NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES NEEDED - JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH 90 80 70
NUMBER OF NEW HOMES
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
$0-$100K
$101-$125K
$126-$175K
$176-$225K
$226-$300K
> $300K
PURCHASE PRICE
NEW RENTAL UNITS NEEDED - JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH 0
NUMBER OF NEW RENTAL UNITS - ALL TYPES
-1 -1.5
-2 -2.5
-3 -3.5
$0-$600
$601-$800
$801-$1,000
$1,001-$1,500
> $1,500
MONTHLY RENT
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JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
Implementation Strategy Subsection Title An opportunity arising out of the regional economic growth is the potential to posture Jefferson Davis Parish for new growth. In order for Jefferson Davis Parish to capture new residents, housing and retail opportunities must be created for workers migrating to the area. Growth must be planned and implemented in a sustainable manner that incorporates community desires and needs while complimenting the rural character that is part of the attraction of the Parish. The area along I-10 will be one of the priority areas potential residents will consider because of the ease of transportation to economic boom sites. Other areas in the Parish are also attractive for lifestyle reasons and need to be part of planning efforts. Recommended objectives and implementation strategies for Jefferson Davis Parish leaders to consider are:
INCREASE JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH’S VISIBILITY TO POTENTIAL RESIDENTS xx Develop a marketing campaign to target potential new residents. The marketing campaign to include: - Proximity and connectivity to Lake Charles and Lafayette employment centers and entertainment opportunities; - Promotion of outdoor activities and the natural beauty of the Parish; - Local festivals and events; - Arts, cultural, and historic sites; - Successes and available programs within the Jefferson Davis Parish public school system. xx Collaborate with local and regional real estate sales and development organizations to encourage the tracking of listings and sales of all residential and commercial properties including MLS listing, For Sale By Owner, and non-profit organizations.
ENSURE GROWTH IS SUPPORTED BY INFRASTRUCTURE xx Establish a community stakeholder committee (residents and business owners) to conduct a strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis for attracting economic development opportunities. Areas of assessment may include: - Development codes and regulations, permitting process; - Infrastructure (transportation, utilities, public services, emergency preparedness); and - Current business climate within municipalities and Parish. xx Utilize incentives for new infrastructure in suitable areas of growth for new development opportunities.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Implementation Strategy | JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH
ENCOURAGE GROWTH WHILE PROTECTING QUALITY OF LIFE xx Develop a citizen driven community visioning master plan that establishes the following: - Develop a land use plan that balances growth with existing rural small town ambiance; - Identify available parcels and or property owners willing to sell for property for the creation of new residential housing developments (single-family and attached). - Identify potential implementation funding sources scaled to levels of development and improvement investment including sustainable development incentives, first time home-buyer programs, and other redevelopment tax credit programs.
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Like it or not, Jefferson Davis Parish will continue to lose population unless a conscious effort is made to provide affordable housing to attract families, especially young families, to the Parish. The school system rates high among its peers and has the capacity to expand to meet the needs of additional families. The housing issue will require a collaborative effort between parish government and all municipalities to provide the framework to make the Parish attractive to developers and future residents. Developers are looking at Jefferson Davis Parish. Being prepared with the information they require is a key to them locating here.
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Marion “Butch” Fox President/CEO Jefferson Davis Parish Economic Development, Tourism & Chamber
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan
TEMPOR ARY HOUSING — Demand for temporary housing is expected to peak in 2017/2018
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
TEMPORARY HOUSING
Temporary Housing Analysis | TEMPORARY HOUSING
The bulk of these are concentrated in the Lake Charles/Sulphur area. Additionally, there is at least one other facility under construction (Courtyard Marriott – Lake Charles) with others in the planning phases.
Temporary Housing Analysis OVERVIEW The most urgent and critical housing need in SWLA is temporary worker housing. The number of workers needed on the project will increase from normal turnaround staffing levels to about 28,000 and then gradually decrease back to normal turnaround project levels. Building permanent housing or unregulated RV/Trailer parks for this group of workers will be extremely disruptive after they leave because of the large surplus of housing that will be on the market. Planned, temporary housing is the best solution. This spike in workers needed to provide the skilled labor to construct the industrial projects is due to people who will migrate to the area to fill jobs. The majority of these positions are craft construction jobs that will require technical skill sets that are in limited supply in the local workforce. Nationally, these journeyman level craft laborers migrate around the country following job openings. This analysis examines both the supply and demand of housing suitable for migratory workers. It also analyzes the likely impacts of temporary housing on other aspects of the community. The bottom line is that there are not enough workers in the local area to fill the jobs and there WILL be a significant but temporary movement of workers to the SWLA area. The recreation and tourism industries of SWLA support a variety of Hotel/Motel and Campground style temporary housing. These facilities are spread throughout the community and provide housing for differing needs. Current facilities available are as follows: TOTAL TEMPORARY HOUSING BY PARISH PARISH
Perhaps most importantly for this analysis — not all rooms and spaces will be available for workers coming to the area for jobs. The information below indicates that there are a substantial number of visitors to the region, already, that will require lodging availability. Failure to provide existing guests with lodging opportunities threatens the overall vitality of the region. While the number of rooms available is increasing, so are demand and prices. According to the Louisiana Office of Tourism and Smith Travel Research, Inc., occupancy rates for Calcasieu Parish have increased from 50.8% in 2011 to 59% in 2013, an increase of 16.1%. Likewise, average daily rates for rooms have risen from $75.61 to $81.22, an increase of 7.4%. YEAR
ROOMS SOLD
AVG. OCCUPANCY
AVG. DAILY RATE
2011
990,530
50.8%
$75.61
2012
1,126,058
56.7%
$77.95
2013
1,180,535
59%
$81.22
2011-2013 % Change
19.2%
16.1%
7.4%
Of particular note is that the average occupancy is calculated by dividing the number of rooms sold by the number of rooms available. It does not take into account complimentary rooms at the casino facilities which represent an estimated 27% of the overall number of rooms available. This increases the 2013 average occupancy from 59% to 65.7%. Using 65.7% as a baseline going into 2014, and assuming that 60% of the unoccupied rooms are available for occupancy by construction workers, a total of 2,852 rooms and campground/rv spaces are available for temporary workers in SWLA.
HOTEL/MOTEL
RV/CAMPGROUND
1,611
216
Beauregard
239
101
Cameron
56
404
Calcasieu
6,143
1,269
356
254
Oftentimes, executives and other professionals choose to stay in apartments or other types of housing
8,405
2,244
that offer flexible leasing terms associated with shorter term needs. Corporate housing stays tend to
Allen
Jefferson Davis TOTAL
accommodate stays of an undetermined length, but generally for more than 30 days. Furnished units are
TEMPORARY HOUSING ADJUSTED FOR VACANCIES PARISH
CORPORATE HOUSING
typically offered with corporate housing. Traditionally, there has not been a strong demand for corporate
HOTEL/MOTEL
RV/CAMPGROUND
housing in the SWLA Region; however, an increase in demand is likely with the surge in industrial activity.
Allen
332
108
Currently, 4 housing developments are marketing themselves as corporate housing: Nelson Pointe, River
Beauregard
49
51
Oaks, The Charlestonian, and the Verandah at Graywood. These units range from 1 to 3 bedrooms and are
Cameron
12
202
priced from $3,150 to $4,800 per month.
Calcasieu
1,264
635
73
127
1,730
1,122
Jefferson Davis TOTAL 1. Average hotel vacancy rate of 65.7% for all Parishes 2. 60% of vacant rooms are available for temporary workers 3. 50% of RV/Campground spots are available 171
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
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TEMPORARY HOUSING | Temporary Housing Analysis
Subsection Title
Temporary Housing Analysis | TEMPORARY HOUSING
As of March 2015, four non-traditional temporary housing developments have been permitted: • Moss Lake Village: This development is to be on the Southland Field Airport property. The facility will be built in phases with ultimate capacity of approximately 2,500 residents. • Rosie’s Place: This development is just east of Lake Charles in the unincorporated part of Calcasieu Parish along Opelousas Street. The facility will be built in phases with ultimate capacity of 500 residents. • J. Clophus Road: This project will be built in Mossville. The facility will be built in phases with ultimate capacity of 625 residents. • LCB Properties/PVG Global: This project will be built in Carlyss on Highway 108 and Areno Road with ultimate capacity of 1,566 residents.
WORKER VILLAGES Worker villages are clusters of temporary housing designed to have a minimal long-term impact on the community in which they are built. The infrastructure is built in a scalable fashion so as to add or remove units as demand changes. Generally, the facilities and associated infrastructure are removed at the completion of the project for which the housing was necessary. This type of housing is commonplace in military installations and has been modified for civilian use. It has become a popular choice for providing housing for large groups of workers in remote destinations (Ft. McMurry - Alberta, Canada) as well as more populated areas that do not have enough housing to meet the needs of surging job growth (Bakken, North Dakota; Odessa, Texas).
Worker villages are the preferred alternative to meet short-term, but temporary, demand for housing. The complexes are able to be constructed rapidly and have a minimal long term impact on the environment or the community in which they are built. If workforce housing is not provided in this manner, those workers are forced to search for individual housing solutions in the community. Some of the consequences of that type of housing can be: • rapidly increasing rents • increased traffic congestion • code violations from too many people living in a single family dwelling • conversion of ancillary spaces (garages, sheds) into rental housing • overbuilding of long-term housing such as apartments, hotels, motels • landlords opting out of housing subsidy programs such as Section 8 • increased homelessness • overcrowding in consumer product and service centers: food, medical, retail, groceries, fuel • stress on public services: police, fire, school, waste, recreation, community services, emergency services, disaster preparedness
The negative impacts identified above compound with one another. By compounding, a snowball effect occurs that magnifies in intensity as time progresses. These consequences result in the community becoming less resilient and lower the long-term quality of life for all residents.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
The community expressed mixed sentiments to the proposed developments; however, the general consensus appears to be that this type of development is preferable to the alternative of dispersing large groups of temporary workers into the community. Moving forward, it will be critical that the local governments responsible for permitting these facilities have clear standards for things like aesthetics, infrastructure removal, noise, transportation, and permit terms associated with project timelines. These projects must be held accountable to provide the services and amenities proposed from the onset. This can be accomplished through stipulations to the permit or through the Development Agreement with the local jurisdiction. The Calcasieu Parish Sheriff’s Office (CPSO) has visited developments in other parts of North America in order to see firsthand how they are operated. The CPSO reports have generally been favorable and have helped calm some of the public’s fear regarding worker villages, as long as they are properly planned and well managed. While there may be an overall increase in crime due to the increased population, well run worker villages do not generally see an increase in the overall crime rate (number of crimes committed per capita). The very nature of these worker villages cluster groups of workers in a concentrated area, which makes policing them much easier than if they were disbursed throughout the community. The workers will come, it is simply a question of how to accommodate them. The commercial viability of these, and other announced but unpermitted worker villages, has not been evaluated as part of the current effort. Each project sponsor or contractor will need to conduct its own due diligence on the viability and suitability of each worker village. Some of the worker villages may be best suited to serve a limited geographic area due to logistical concerns due to traffic and travel time. It is expected that as the market matures, some of the worker village projects will become less utilized as market leaders emerge due to cost, operational excellence, or location. This presumes that the market meets or exceeds the overall demands for temporary housing of any type. As projects are permitted, local officials should consider incorporating the commitments made by developers into the permitting process. This could be done by adding the itemized promises into Development Agreements or Zoning Exceptions. Elements common to all developments could be incorporated into existing development regulations. Some of those elements may include: density, landscaping, lighting, fencing, parking, utilities, and disposition after the project is no longer needed. These developments are unique and do not fall neatly under existing regulations. It is important that a consistent set of guidelines be established for all projects in order to protect the public and treat all
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TEMPORARY HOUSING | Temporary Housing Analysis
developers equitably.
Subsection Title
Contractors and/or project sponsors must also consider the impact of state and federal labor laws when deciding how best to ensure adequate housing is available for temporary construction workers. Concern has been expressed, on the part of industry, that remote housing requiring long commutes may require compensation for travel time to remain competitive with less remote projects. There is also uncertainty as to what housing arrangements trigger automatic compensation for travel time — such as mandatory housing at specific developments. Several other sites are actively being considered for temporary housing. The addition of other temporary housing developments dispersed throughout the region will be key to meeting the overall demand. Perhaps more importantly, the acceptance and embracing of worker villages by the industrial companies — owners and contractors — is of utmost importance in establishing worker villages as the primary mechanism to meet the temporary housing needs. If temporary housing is left to the individual employee’s responsibility, the community should expect to see the adverse impacts stated
Temporary Housing Analysis | TEMPORARY HOUSING
This alleviates many of the concerns that are associated with a transient workforce including: • Increased Traffic Congestion: By concentrating workers in isolated areas, companies have the choice of considering mass transit. When workers are spread throughout the community, individual vehicles are required. Mass transit results in fewer overall vehicles traveling less overall miles. This in turn lowers traffic congestion. • Lower Labor Costs: Some companies are considering paying workers during their commutes. By housing workers on-site, the amount of time spent commuting is negligible. While seemingly insignificant, this could save 1-2 hours of labor time per employee per day. At 1,000 workers making $20/hour, this represents a potential savings of $8.8M per year. • Housing Uncertainty: Many companies have expressed concern about the ability of housing providers to meet their needs timely. By hosting a camp within/adjacent to the project site, project sponsors have the ability to dictate terms that lower risk and uncertainty with regard to housing. While this concept has been explored, no projects have announced this type of arrangement as of February 2015. Additional exploration of this type of arrangement should be encouraged by all stakeholders.
Worker villages are the preferred alternative to meet short-term, but temporary, demand for housing.
above to some degree. Because of the nature of the growth cycle expected for Southwest Louisiana (magnitude and timing), companies run the risk of being hindered by these factors. Some projects may run the risk of cost overruns associated with employee availability, morale, and predictability. In a worst case scenario, the impact of workforce housing availability could indirectly threaten the viability of marginal projects. The forecast of construction labor for each project continues to be dynamic. The labor forecast is a function of many elements including labor costs, training capacity, material costs, labor demand in other locations, availability of raw materials, etc. It is unrealistic to think that private operators of worker villages will be willing to make long-term investments in developments without commitments from one or more plant facilities to utilize that worker village. A better solution may be to incorporate workforce housing into the overall project development plan. Many of the industrial sites have suitable additional acreage that could be utilized to provide on-site housing.
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TEMPORARY HOUSING
Temporary Housing Forecast | TEMPORARY HOUSING
SUPPLY & DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR TEMPORARY HOUSING
Temporary Housing Forecast
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
0
4,196
7,221
7,900
3,648
2,859
973
22
0
0
Construction Journeyman
5,908
13,651
18,068
12,819
5,919
4,639
1,580
36
0
0
TOTAL DEMAND
5,908
17,846
25,289
20,720
9,567
7,499
2,553
59
0
0
Hotel/Motel
1,730
1,681
1,681
1,681
1,681
1,681
1,681
1,681
1,681
1,681
RV/Campground
1,122
1,234
1,358
1,493
1,426
1,426
1,426
1,426
1,426
1,426
Worker Villages
5,183
5,183
5,183
5,183
5,183
4,500
0
0
0
0
TOTAL SUPPLY
8,035
8,098
8,221
8,357
8,290
7,607
3,107
3,107
3,107
3,107
-
9,749
17,068
12,363
1,277
-
-
-
-
-
Immigration for Construction Phase Jobs
Several major projects are beginning to enter the construction phase. As construction begins, labor estimates become more refined. This allows for more accurate projections of housing need to support temporary workers. The overall jobs forecast was analyzed by project. The analysis included both construction and operations phase employment. Indirect and induced employment figures were calculated from the direct operations and construction jobs. The RIMSII multipliers from the Department of Commerce were used in developing these projects. The table below aggregates direct, indirect, and induced employment for both operations and construction. Using the combined projection of operation and construction phase employment, total immigration needs were estimated. Immigration was determined by subtracting the existing unemployed (but employable) workforce from projected jobs needs. Typically, about 70% of the overall construction workforce consists of journeyman travelers. These workers will be needed in addition to the immigrants since the training they have is specialized and not able to be found at the levels needed in the current SWLA workforce. A table summarizing this information is below. IMMIGRATION ANALYSIS
Total Operations Jobs by Year
2015
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
0
913
1,383
1,686
7,543
10,679
11,553
12,575
14,145
15,594
15,669
Total Construction Phase Jobs by Year
0
9,549
22,064
29,204
20,720
9,567
7,499
2,553
59
0
0
Less Journeyman Construction
0
-5,908
-13,651
-18,068
-12,819
-5,919
-4,639
-1,580
-36
0
0
Total Local Jobs by Both Phases by Year
0
4,554
9,796
12,821
15,443
14,327
14,412
13,548
14,168
15,594
15,669
SWLA Labor Resource
12,984
5,600
5,600
5,600
5,600
5,600
5,600
5,600
5,600
5,600
5,600
Immigration (Workers)
-12984
-1046
4,196
7,221
9,843
8,727
8,812
7,948
8,568
9,994
10,069
Immigration Households
0
0
2,397
4,126
5,625
4,987
5,035
4,542
4,896
5,711
5,754
Immigration Population
0
0
6,018
10,356
14,118
12,517
12,639
11,400
12,289
14,334
14,442
UNMET DEMAND
ASSUMPTIONS: • RV/Campground growth continues at 10% new capacity annually through 2018 (last year of high demand) with current steady state occupancy of 50% of available slots • No additional hotel/motel construction occurs • The four worker villages expand to full announced capacity and are 100% occupied
Overall, demand for temporary housing is expected to peak in 2017 at over 25,000 housing units. Existing capacity for housing in the SWLA region is about 2,850 housing units, not considering worker villages. Ultimately, significant new workforce housing will be required to meet the projected demand. Even when taking into account the announced worker villages, over 17,000 additional housing units are projected to be needed in 2017. Finally, not all empty beds will be available to meet overall supply. Some worker villages will be restricted to workers from a geographic region. Other developments will accept female workers only. Lastly, some worker villages will be too far from certain employment centers to effectively meet the needs. It is imperative that these factors be considered when determining the actual available supply of temporary dwellings. The map below shows the general geographic concentrations of construction employment. EMPLOYMENT LOCALES
After analyzing total immigration expected in the region, and combining it with the construction journeyman, an estimate of total temporary housing needs is able to be developed. The chart on the next page is an analysis of the overall supply and demand for temporary housing. 177
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HOUSING FINANCE — Financing plays a very important role in the overall provision of quality housing for the residents of a community. This analysis will consider the current trends impacting housing finance in SWLA.
SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
HOUSING FINANCE
Housing Finance Analysis | HOUSING FINANCE
Housing Finance Analysis OVERVIEW Financing plays a very important role in the overall supply of quality housing in a community. Housing finance is a complex issue affected by many different factors such as macroeconomic climate, local economic climate, federal regulations, strength of individual lending institutions, risk tolerance of individual lending institutions, and the creditworthiness of individual borrowers. This analysis will
Housing prices peaked in the United States in 2006 and declined rapidly until 2012. While individual housing markets varied significantly from region to region, changes were made to lending regulations that affected all new mortgage loans nationwide in the Housing & Economic Recovery Act of 2008. These changes were intended to increase the overall quality of loans being originated in order to avoid another recession. The changes included higher mortgage insurance premiums, higher credit score requirements, and higher downpayment requirements. The result made it difficult for many borrowers to obtain new mortgages and is believed to have contributed to the slow economic recovery since the recession in the US economy. Some of the higher standards were relaxed in December 2014 in order to balance the desire to make mortgages affordable and obtainable with the need to insure the lenders. A synopsis of standards for various mortgage types is shown in the table below.
consider the trends impacting housing finance in SWLA.
INVESTMENT LENDING (MULTI-FAMILY, LAND DEVELOPMENT, RENTAL PROPERTY)
MORTGAGE TYPE
DOWN PAYMENT
CREDIT SCORE
MAXIMUM PURCHASE PRICE
PRIVATE MORTGAGE INSURANCE
OTHER
CONVENTIONAL
20%
620
$417,000
0
36% debt-toincome
FHA
3.5%
580
$271,050
0.85% + 1.75% upfront
Higher rates
Investment activity has increased substantially in the last two years. Historically, much of the development activity in SWLA has been undertaken by local landowners and developers. More recently, developers from other areas have shown a growing interest in investing in the region. This is likely due in part to the national media coverage of the economic boom coming to SWLA. Local and regional banks are well capitalized to participate in financing investment projects; however, most are being very cautious in their approach. Many are concerned about the risks of investing in a boom that never quite materializes. The recent announcement regarding the delay of Sasol’s final investment decision in the GTL project reinforces this concern. The attitude towards caution is most clearly seen in conservative lending terms. Some of the institutions are requiring down payments or collateral in the 30%-40% range. Others are shortening the term of the loan so that performance and risk can be evaluated more frequently. These measures most often impact local developers with less experience or fewer assets. The result is that marginal development projects are not undertaken and good projects become more expensive to undertake. This makes it more difficult for small or first-time developers to compete with developers that have significant assets and/or experience.
VA
0%
none
$417,000
0
Veterans only, 41% debt-toincome, higher fees
JUMBO
20%
720
$417,000 unlimited
0
36-38% debt-to income
The table above shows the most common lending standards for the most common types of loans. Some of the standards can vary from bank to bank—these terms are not absolute. There are also some banks that choose to originate and hold mortgage loans in house. The terms and requirements for those loans are set by individual institutions and can vary widely based on the unique circumstances of the borrower and the risk perspective of the bank.
MORTGAGE LENDING The lending market for purchase of a personal residence is much less dependent on local factors and much more heavily influenced by federal regulations. This is because most mortgages are originated locally and then sold to a national institution guaranteed by either the Federal National Mortgage Association or the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, better known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As a result, locally originated loans must follow the established standards in order to be sold to larger institutions.
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SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE | Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy
Southwest Louisiana Housing Study, Strategic Plan, and Implementation Strategy | SWLA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE
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Housing Finance Analysis | HOUSING FINANCE
There are several programs designed to assist borrowers in obtaining home mortgages. The highlights of the most common programs are below.
CreditCREDIT Certificate Program PROGRAM MORTGAGE CERTIFICATE Mortgage This program is administered by the Calcasieu Parish Public Trust Authority and is available for first-time homebuyers in all 5 SWLA Parishes. Highlights of the program are: xx 40% of mortgage interest paid as credit on federal income taxes—up to $2,000 per year xx Purchase price must not exceed $250,200 xx Meet low-to-moderate income limits: 2014 limit for family of 3 or more in Calcasieu was $64,285 xx Must use participating lender to originate xx Website for the program is http://www.trustauthority.org/#!services2/c131x
– Single Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program USDA – SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING GUARANTEED LOAN PROGRAM USDA This program assists approved lenders in providing low and moderate income households with homeownership opportunities in rural areas. xx 90% loan guarantee to lenders to support 100% financing for borrowers xx Must be located in eligible area: see website at http://eligibility.sc.egov.usda.gov/eligibility/ welcomeAction.do xx Meet low-to-moderate income limits: 2014 limit for family of 3 or more in Calcasieu was $64,285 xx Must use participating lender to originate xx Website for the program is http://www.rd.usda.gov/programs-services/single-family-housingguaranteed-loan-program
Housing Corporation – Market Rate GNMA RATE Program LOUISIANA HOUSING CORPORATION – MARKET GNMA PROGRAM Louisiana This program provides downpayment assistance to low and moderate income Louisiana families. xx 3% downpayment assistance xx Loan must be FHA, VA, or Rural Development xx Loan limits same as origination program xx Maximum income is 115% of area median income xx Minimum credit score of 640 xx Website for the program is http://lhc.la.gov/page/market-rate-gnma
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