Frequently, we analyse what is happening in the housing market. The year 2024 has represented two very distinct trends. It has been a year of clearly growing activity in the sales market, and the complete opposite in the rental market. The sales market has shown remarkable dynamism, both in the second-hand and new-build sectors, with the growth in activity closely tied to the decrease in interest rates.
The sentiment after each analysis, whether in our reports or our opinion notes, is that we keep repeating the same thing, but with the starting point of each analysis being that the situation is somewhat worse.
When we assess the concept of “worse,” we do so from the perspective of housing accessibility, and this accessibility, simplifying things greatly, has two variables: price and available supply. As long as these two are not balanced, the concept of accessibility will not become a minimal reality. In 2024, the price variable has been intervened in the rental market, while supply has continued its decline. We are likely to end the year in a situation close to collapse due to the lack of rental opportunities.
In this report, we try to highlight that we are not heading in the right direction and how the policies established in 2024 have had the opposite effect of what they theoretically intended. From our point of view, this demonstrates two very clear things: first, that there is no global or transversal view of the problem, and second, which is where we feel most compelled, that the policies being implemented are completely disconnected from the sector, being made with total ignorance and detached from reality.
Guifré Homedes Amat Director General
MARKET RENTAL
Contracts and Prices
Data from Amat Immobiliaris
As we have mentioned in previous reports, the ability to create new rental contracts is strictly related to the available supply. As we will see later, in 2024, we have continued to experience a clear decline in this regard, and consequently, we have seen a decrease in the number of new contracts made in 2024. As shown in the rental transaction evolution graph, this marks the third consecutive year of a decline in new contracts. Compared to 2023, we have seen an 18% contraction, and over the past two years, the decline has been 43%. To make a less short-term comparison, when compared to the average of the past 20 years, we are 40% below.
Forecasts for 2025 are difficult to make. We have been wrong in recent years, thinking that this situation would stabilize, but that has not been the case. At the beginning of this year, we believe there will be stabilization in this lower range, but we are highly sceptical of new rental housing regulations that could further reduce supply.
The evolution of rents must be analysed in great detail because conditions have changed significantly in 2024. We will make a double analysis since, when discussing average rent (€/month), we will see that it has increased, but when we look at the average impact of rent (€/ month/m²), we will see that it has decreased. All of this makes sense. 2024hasalsomarkedayearoflegalchangeintherentalenvironment.InMarch 2024, the new rent control for high-demand areas established by the Housing Law, approved in May 2023, came into effect. Therefore, this report analyses a year in which, during the first quarter, the price market was free, but heavily influenced by the imminent arrival of regulation, and three quarters where the market has been regulated. It will likely take more time to draw any valid conclusions about the behaviour of the regulated market. And as we will see later, activity has continued to decline, so any conclusions are based on a low numberofcontracts,which is the main context of2024.
PRICE IMPACT OF RENT IN BARCELONA 2024
The starting point was a 2023 with an upward trend. The first three months of 2024 saw poor political communication, with repeated announcements of the implementation dates for rent regulation—dates that were initially vague, and when they were finally confirmed, they were moved several times. This clearly led to a much higher pace of rent increases. The reasoning was simple: raise rents as much as possible before the regulation kicks in.
From this point onward, if we look at the overall evolution of the impact of rents during 2024, we can see a slight decrease in all the areas where we typically operate. The graph shows where the impacts have been positioned in each case. The average decrease has been 1.8% compared to 2023. It is logical for the behaviour to have been this way because it is the objective of the regulation, and it occurs after three consecutive years of increases with an annual average growth of 4%. Probably, this percentage compared to 2023 could have been higher if, as mentioned earlier, there had not been growth above the average during the first three months of the year, due to the poor management of the entire situation.
We usually analyse the market by district in the city of Barcelona. As shown in the infographic, the behaviour has been diverse depending on the district, and in some cases, it has even increased. Specifically, the increase in two districts, despite the regulation, is explained by the weight of transactions made during the first quarter of 2024 in the case of Ciutat Vella, and by the different characteristics of the rental properties from one year to the next, as is the case in Sant Andreu.
It might seem paradoxical, but if we look at what happened with the average absolute rent, the behaviour during 2024 has been one of growth in places like Sant Just Desvern and Sant Cugat del Vallès. It is not reflected in the graph, but if we calculate the aggregate average across all of our offices, the trend was one of growth.
This can be explained by the configuration of the limited available supply. As we will see later, proportionally, the properties we rent are larger, meaning they have a larger surface area, and therefore higher absolute rent and lower rent impact. It is too early to draw any conclusions or to claim that this will be the trend in 2025, but proportionally, more supply of medium or small-sized homes has disappeared than of larger homes.
EVOLUTION OF % OF RENTAL CONTRACTS BY INCOME SEGMENT
Rental Supply
Data from Amat Immobiliaris
As we have been saying for years, the inability to make more rental contracts is due to the lack of available supply. This is a fact that has been ongoing for years, and contrary to what we initially predicted, it has continued to decrease throughout the year. We have lost just over 50% of the supply in the last three years. Compared to 2023, the contraction has been 5%.
We often explain how this supply is configured to try to understand why it is shrinking. Essentially, it is made up of two factors: the turnover of the portfolio we manage, which is the main factor, and, very secondarily, the entry of new investors with properties that had never before been on the rental market.
The distribution of new contracts made in 2024 by absolute income ranges also supports the trend we mentioned earlier. For example, the segment of contracts made above €2,500/month has doubled.
Broadly speaking, we can say that turnover has decreased significantly, and investment, due to the entirely adverse context for property owners, has also collapsed. Additionally, when a property in the portfolio we manage becomes vacant because the tenant has moved out, there has been a significant increase in sales of these properties, which are almost always sold to families, most of them foreign. These are homes that disappear from the rental market.
If we analyse why owners who had a rented property sold it when it became vacant in 2024, the reason is clear: they do not want to continue being the constant target of populism surrounding the housing world.
The numbers are clear: globally, the rental portfolio has contracted three times more than in 2023. Contrary to what is often proclaimed, there has been no significant movement towards seasonal rentals, which, in our case, has been negligible.
From the perspective of a new tenant looking to enter the rental housing market, the context is even more adverse. We have already seen that opportunities are limited, but in addition, in 2024 we stopped publishing the majority of properties and have managed contacts internally. To put it in numbers, in 2023, we did not publish 15% of the supply, while in 2024 we have only published 26% of the available supply, with the average rent for what we published being €2,300. Even so, we have received 6% more contacts in 2024 than in the previous year.
TYPE OF PROPERTY RENTED IN 2024
The context has caused the way we market properties to change completely compared to what we had done historically. To put it briefly, we have shifted to managing a list of potential candidates.
As we mentioned earlier, the properties that have been listed and rented have been of a higher quality than in 2023. The key data summarizing this situation is that the average size of the rented properties in 2024 has been 20% larger than in 2023.
Finally, let’s highlight the profile of the tenant who rented the most in 2024 in our case. As we’ve pointed out in recent years, the impact of long-term foreign tenants has been very significant. As can be seen from the data, the percentage of new foreign tenants is crucial in Barcelona and its surroundings.
The growth in percentage terms is not so much due to an increase in absolute numbers, which there has been, but mainly because they are the best candidates for the limited available supply. 44% are Europeans, 39% are Americans (mainly South Americans), 11% are Asians, and the rest come from other continents
Conclusions
2024 may have marked the year of widespread awareness that the rental market was in clear decline. However, this trend has been visible for years, and we have continuously highlighted it in our reports and opinion notes.
If the goal is to improve accessibility, all data points to the fact that the results of current policies are the opposite of what was intended. We question whether improving accessibility is truly the objective, as it is incomprehensible that, seeing what is happening, there is still insistence on policies that clearly harm the current supply. Without a clear policy on the supply side, we will never reverse this situation.
Unfortunately, our outlook is pessimistic: access to the rental supply will be extremely limited in the coming decade.
RENTALS SEASONAL
DatafromAmatImmobiliaris
For us, this is a small activity compared to long-term rentals, but it is absolutely necessary to meet the existing demand in the city of Barcelona. As we’ve mentioned previously, and reiterate, the shift from long-term rentals to seasonal rentals has been insignificant. However, unlike what has happened with the long-term rental portfolio, the seasonal rental portfolio has remained stable, with slight growth.
Additionally, complementing what we said a few lines earlier, the way of marketing seasonal rentals is completely different from what we used to do with long-term rentals, and this has had a significant effect on the perception of people who visited portals looking for rental offers.
In our case, we never remove seasonal offers, even when the property already has a tenant, as we are already looking for the next tenant when the current one finishes their project in Barcelona. If we add to this that we barely published anything in long-term rentals in 2024, the external perception is that seasonal rentals have grown, but that’s not true in our case. The data shows the characteristics of our seasonal tenants in 2024.
We’ll see how the legal framework evolves around seasonal rentals. Since we are not applying the correct policies and access problems will persist, it’s likely that there will be a temptation to apply some form of regulation. Regardless, one thing we are sure of is that the demand for seasonal rentals will not disappear. If they can’t make seasonal rental contracts, they will move to the long-term rental market, being clearly good profiles. What we’re less certain about is what will happen to the supply. It’s likely that not all of it will return to long-term rentals, and some may end up being sold. It’s easy to understand that accessibility to long-term rentals would be further reduced.
MARKET SALES
For totally different reasons, and also with different trends, just like in rental, for a few years now we have been in a context of low supply in the sales market, whether it be new construction or second-hand.
A nivell global podem definir el mercat de venda del 2024 com un any bo i clarament en millora durant tot l’any. Veníem d’un 2023 marcat per la pujada de tipus d’interès i un accés complicat al finançament. A mesura que aquest escenari ha anat canviant els primers mesos del 2024 la recuperació de l’activitat ha estat molt clara.
We will not go into detail in this report, but the overall issue we face in accessing housing, whether for sale or rent, is based on a deficit between the creation of households (demand) and the production of new homes. We have been experiencing a negative deficit for years, and this deficit has been accumulating for nearly a decade. Additionally, the unforeseen migratory factor in recent years has further exacerbated this deficit. This is why the coming years will be extremely challenging, as not only must you balance production versus household creation annually, but you must also absorb the accumulated deficit.
SECOND HAND SALES
Data from Amat Immobiliaris
Probably the two factors that most affect the activity of the second-hand sales market are the availability of supply and access to financing. The combination of these two variables determines the pace of annual transactions.
That said, over the last four years, the supply has been more or less stable, with an 8% increase in 2024 compared to 2023. However, when compared to the period 2017–2020, we are 30% below the average.
One of the key factors is understanding where this supply comes from. It is mainly based on a replacement market, homeowners selling their property to buy another one. But in 2024, this component must be supplemented by the supply coming from the rental market. That is, homes that had been rented out, and when they become vacant, the owner decides to sell them. This is a phenomenon that has always existed, growing year by year, but in 2024 it has become very clear.
The first conclusion to be drawn is that the rental supply is shrinking, as 100% of the homes coming from the rental market have been sold to families, and not to another investor. This suggests that current policies in the rental market are not helping accessibility, as the number of homes available for rent is decreasing.
The second comment revolves around what will happen to prices if “unexpected supply” enters the sales market. In the short term, nothing will happen, as, as mentioned earlier, the accumulated deficit is so large that there is no impact on prices. In fact, later we will see that they have continued to rise in 2024.
In this context, and as we usually say, when we have competitive supply in terms of location, characteristics, and price, the market is very agile in moving it. The average time to sell a second-hand property has been approximately 4 months, a figure very similar to that of the previous year.
Price evolution has continued to rise. In the following two graphs, you can see the evolution of the average absolute prices for second-hand properties in the areas where we work, as well as the aggregated evolution across all offices. As we will discuss later, and following the trend of recent years, the proportion of sales of larger homes and flats has continued to grow, and this is also reflected in the absolute price increase of sold properties. The growth is the aggregate of both larger homes and the increase in unit price.
In the aggregated graph (previous page), you can see a scale behaviour, moving from €400,000 between 2016 and 2017 to €600,000 from 2023 onwards.
In the markets of Sant Cugat del Vallès and Sant Just Desvern, the supply tends to be much more homogeneous in characteristics and price, and these are much smaller markets compared to the city of Barcelona. In 2024, they were dominated by a very consistent mid-to-high-level supply.
As we mentioned when talking about rentals, if we look at the evolution of the impact prices, we can see an opposite situation. For example, Sant Just Desvern, which had the highest average absolute price in 2024, had a lower impact price. Here we can clearly see the effect of the type of offer sold, and it confirms what we already said, that proportionally, the larger flats and homes sold have been decisive in the overall annual results.
IMPACT PRICE OF SECOND-HAND SALES IN BARCELONA 2024
SANT JUST DESVERN
Strictly speaking, in the area of Sant Just Desvern, the impact price is €4,548/m² of built space. When we aggregate Sant Just and its surroundings, the price drops to €3,521/m² of built space. In Sant Just itself, the range of impact prices is very broad. For example, a central flat exceeds €5,900/m² of built space, while a central house is just above €3,000/ m² of built space. As mentioned earlier, the increase in sales of larger homes has been noticeable, with sales doubling from one year to the next.
SANT CUGAT DEL VALLÈS
The range of impact prices was also quite broad, closely tied to the type and location of the property. We completed transactions raning from €4.053/m2 of built space to €6.539/m2 of built space. The average price was 12% higher than in 2023. Unlike Sant Just, the growth in sales was not driven so much by houses, which remained stable, but by flats.
BARCELONA
The average of our sales in the city stood at €4,956/m² of built space, 2.6% lower than in 2023. The infographic shows the average impact price in each district. In recent years, Sant Martí and Eixample have consistently had the highest impact prices. However, in 2024, Les Corts had the highest average, at €6,270/m² of built space. The range in the city is much broader due to the dispersion of the properties sold, with transactions closing between €2,800/m² and €7,300/m² of built space.
As we have mentioned several times in this report, the type of properties sold, and also rented, has been larger compared to 2023.This trendwas alreadynoticeable last year. Clearly, sales of properties over 100m² have dominated. 2024 did not mark any significant difference in the energy quality of the properties sold. It will likely take time to see if the necessary changes are being made in this regard. Our experience, which we have already mentioned several times, is that the aid for property rehabilitation has not been well managed.
EVOLUTION OF THE IMPACT PRICE OF SECOND-HAND SALES
TYPE OF SECOND-HAND PROPERTY SOLD 2024
The year 2024 marked a turning point, often being the deadline for the submission of projects. However, this was not handled well, as the official extension of the deadlines only occurred a few days before their expiration.
On our part, we did launch several rehabilitation projects in 2024 linked to the Next Generation Funds, though far fewer than we would have liked. The poor planning has turned what should have been a proactive issue into one of frustration. Even so, the challenge remains on the table, and there is no future without a model of sustained rehabilitation for the coming decades.
The last analysis we make of the second-hand sales market is the type of buyer we have had in each area. The infographics show these characteristics in detail. We would like to highlight the following facts:
• There has been a clear increase in transactions that have been financed. This is a logical fact, as financing conditions have become much more competitive as the year progressed.
• In several areas, the proportion of foreign buyers has increased. It is worth noting that political communication regarding the Golden Visa accelerated sales to this profile, with the added issue that, in our case, they were the main buyers of properties leaving the rental market. This is the perfect example of two policies working contrary to expectations.
• There has been an increase in sales to people under 40 years old. The profile is typically a couple who does not enter the rental market, assisted by their family to pay for the down payment, and obviously, they have the right profile to obtain a mortgage.
• The investor profile continues to be at lower percentages than in other periods. In absolute value, there are fewer investors than homes sold from the rental portfolio.
We expect 2025 to have more activity than 2024, as the global context appears to be better. We will probably have more available supply, some of it coming from the rental market, which will facilitate more transactions. The inability to access the rental market may also divert younger segments toward buying, as they may receive family support and have the ability to finance themselves.
One “adverse” factor from the demand side is the fall of the Golden Visa (March 2025). Our experience is that since 2013, when this program was implemented, its success has been relative, and it is not clear that, once cancelled, this demand will disappear from the market. We tend to think that the main reason for purchasing was not the possibility of obtaining a Golden Visa.
Other announced measures, which we will see if they materialize during the year, involve an additional imposition on non-EU buyers. We will see the effect this could have. To put it in context, in 2024, 12% of sales were to non-EU buyers.
SECOND HAND BUYER PROFILE 2024
OBRA NOVA VENDA
Data from Amat Immobiliaris
2024 has been a clearly better year than 2023 in terms of the number of transactions. The growth in sales has been nearly 20%. While second-hand sales in 2024 have clearly followed a trend of gradual increase, the new-build market has been much more stable, with activity being dynamic from the beginning of the year and improving month by month. These figures always depend on the projects available for sale, and in 2024 we have had various projects at different stages, which has allowed us to meet many different types of demand.
The sales pace has been closely linked to the phases of commercialization; in early stages, we sold 3–4 homes per month, while in more advanced projects, we sold 1–2 homes per month.
The most sold new-build property types have been at both extremes: the majority of sales were homes under 90 m², but following at a distance were homes over 180 m².
Energy-wise, new-build homes are much better than second-hand homes, with 100% being classified as category A or B.
As in the second-hand market, the buyer profile for new-build homes is under 40 years old. In many cases, it is a first-time home purchase. Also, while the percentage of investors in new-build homes has been lower than in previous years, it has remained more constant over the last two years. When the deliveries are formalized, it will be clear where these homes are headed. The constantly changing rental market context may influence how these homes will eventually reach the market. As we have mentioned several times, society, public administration, and media that shape public opinion on housing should view investor-owners as allies, the best partners to contribute to solving rental housing accessibility. Unfortunately, we are probably in an opinion state that is the opposite of what is desirable.
TYPE OF NEW-BUILD PROPERTY SOLD 2024
NEW-BUILD BUYER PROFILE 2024
The evolution of the repercussions compared to 2023 is closely linked to the commercialization phase of each project. If we aggregate the data, we see an average growth of 5%, which is not observed in all the developments we have marketed. In the city of Barcelona, this analysis is even more complicated due to the limited number of developments currently available, making comparisons almost impossible. For several years now, the city has been practically paralysed, which negatively impacts both the free market and the regulated or social market. The overall numbers for new construction are negligible for a city like Barcelona. Although not directly related, this also hinders the rehabilitation of buildings and their energy improvements. In summary, regardless of how it is viewed, no one can argue that the 30% measure, as it is currently structured, has had any positive impact on housing accessibility.
We are expecting 2025 to follow a trend similar to 2024, possibly slightly better. We will likely have a similar supply scenario, which leads us to believe that we will continue along the same lines.
LUXURY MARKET
A market that continues to grow year after year, and 2024 has been no different. We have now had four years when the high-end segment is one of the most active.
60% of the transactions have been houses or plots of land for building single-family homes. Primarily, the locations have been Sant Just Desvern, Sant Cugat del Vallès, and Barcelona in that order. Unlike previous years, the sales in Barcelona have been concentrated in the upper side.
The market has split into two differentiated price segments: An active market located around properties with an average absolute price of €1,400,000, and on the other hand, another segment with transactions ranging between €2,500,000 and €5,000,000, with fewer transactions but very significant ones.
Contrary to what one might think, 85% of the transactions have been made by local buyers, clearly dominating this price segment. clearly dominating this price segment.
WHAT DO WE EXPECT FOR 2025?
To summarize it in one sentence, the level of activity will be strictly linked to the availability of supply. The imbalance between supply and demand is large enough to believe this will be the case. Obviously, this will be true considering the price component, as it is very clear what the maximum price is that the majority of potential buyers can afford.
The forecast for sales is that we will continue with a medium-low level of supply, but with a growing trend, similar to new construction. In rental, on the contrary, we foresee a worse situation for 2025 than in 2024. We do not have any indicators suggesting that supply will grow; quite the opposite. Unfortunately, this forecast will remain constant for the coming years; we are in a hole that some continue to make deeper.
Barcelona · Via Augusta, 3 i Balmes, 345 | Sant Cugat del Vallès · Av Rius i Taulet, 17 | Sant Just Desvern · Bonavista, 63
