Prepping For 2025 M

ore than 30 years ago, I was standing next to the guy who owned the company I was working at. I was in charge of one of his businesses, and he had a visitor he was showing around. They came up to me, and my boss introduced me to his guest. And then he said something that has stuck with me ever since. "This guy," he said, pointing at me, "is pretty good at what he does. But when things get tough, that's when he gets even better."

I hadn't realized what he had seen, but after he said that, I went back and thought about it. He was right, but the reasons weren't as complimentary as one might hope (although I know he meant this as a compliment).

When things are going swimmingly, if you're basically competent, it's easy to do well. After all, everything's on your side. The market is good, the rates are good, and everyone's hopeful and confident, so business is easy to come by. Some folks maybe capitalize on good times more so than others, but it's not a great achievement to bask in economic sunshine.

When business gets tighter, harder, and darker, it's critical to start thinking about how to be innovative, to look at markets in a different light, and to consider what other ways you can generate revenue and sustain income. My boss was saying I was good at that, and I think I still am: I like keeping an open view of what might be coming a year or two out. But I realized that if I were really a good business leader, I would have been thinking about all those things when the market was going great. Instead, I was coasting on easy wins and only turned to a more thoughtful approach when I was forced to. If I'd been better at this earlier, I wouldn't have had to scramble.

For loan originators now scrambling, we know there are techniques, tactics, and tricks to help secure those loan deals, fewer though they may be. We are glad to tell the stories of LOs who have successfully pivoted. But we're also impressed by — and delighted to tell the stories of — local originators who laid the groundwork for their success now by being thoughtful and focused two years ago. Many of these success stories share the same characteristics: the LO didn't just grab the easy money (refinances) but made sure to keep a solid footing with purchase partners, despite that being more time-consuming. Those relationships built then are a bank of profit now.

For many LOs, that's a lesson to be learned for the next market turndown. For now, the imperative is to know every winning strategy, trend, and insight that can set you up for success. And then to think about what the market will also look like two years from now. The compliment shouldn't be that we get innovative when we have to but that we never have to scramble in the first place.

CEO, Publisher, Editor-in-Chief vvalvo@ambizmedia.com

Fighting The Fear

Christian Griffin has overcome tough challenges in the past. The fear of facing them again propels him forward.

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Golden State News Nuggets Kickbacks Continue

A look at news of interest to mortgage originators across California

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In California’s competitive housing market, unscrupulous real estate agents still have their hands out for illegal referral fees.

Quick Learner/Big Earner

Tiffany Dawson quickly applied the lessons she learned to become a first-year LO earning six figures off 24 loans in a turbulent 2022.

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On The Move

A look at those people in the California mortgage industry who are seizing new employment opportunities or promotions.

Just The Facts

Our Data Bank whittles down the important stats about the California housing market.

RCN Heads West

RCN Capital is expanding from its Connecticut roots to take on the Golden State with a new Southern California office.

California Mortgage Expo

Thursday, August 10, 2023

Marriott La Jolla, San Diego 10 AUG Originator Connect

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August 17–20, 2023

Planet Hollywood, Las Vegas

California Mortgage Expo

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September 12, 2023

Hilton Oakland Airport, Oakland

California Least Popular To Gen Zers

Six of the 10 least popular metros for potential Gen Z homebuyers are in California, according to an analysis of Lending Tree mortgage purchase requests from adult Gen Z users of the online loan platform across the nation’s 50 largest metros from Jan. 1 through Dec. 31, 2022.

The first and third smallest percentages of mortgages being requested by Gen Zers are in San Francisco (7.76%) and San Jose (9.7%), respectively, with New York (8.88%) second on the list. Los Angeles (9.99%), San Diego (11.66%), Sacramento (12.11%), and Riverside (12.45%) are the other California metros in the top 10.

Adult Gen Zers (ages 18 to 25) account for an average of 14.91% of potential homebuyers across the nation’s 50 largest metros.

The highest down payments ($77,786) were made by potential Gen Z homebuyers in San Jose. The average mortgage amount offered to Gen Zers in San Jose was $541,436, also the highest among the 50 metros.

Oakland, Los Angeles In Top 5 Of Price Drops: Redfin

Home-sale prices declined by 7.4% year over year in Oakland and 6.7% in Los Angeles, the third and fifth biggest drops, respectively, among the 50 most populous metros Redfin analyzed, during the four weeks ending June 11, according to a report released June 15.

Pending home sales, which fell in all metros Redfin analyzed, declined 26.6% in San Diego, the fifth biggest drop. New listings, which also fell in all the metros, declined 39.6% in Oakland and 34.7% in Anaheim, the third and fifth biggest drops, respectively.

Nationally, the median home sale price was $381,169, down 1.1% from a year earlier, the smallest decline in more than three months. Price declines have been shrinking for the last seven weeks.

The total number of U.S. homes for sale dropped 6% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending June 11, the biggest decline in 13 months. New listings dropped 23%, continuing a 10-month streak of double-digit declines. Those add to the deepening postpandemic inventory shortage; there are 39% fewer homes for sale now than there were five years ago, in June 2018.

Mortgage Company President Convicted In Fraud Scheme Case

The former president of a purported mortgage “investment” company, Robert Sedlar, has been convicted of 100 felony counts for operating a mortgage fraud scheme throughout California, the state’s attorney general, Rob Bonta announced.

foreclosure consultant. Rogers and Audrey Gan entered guilty pleas before trial, and Sedlar, president of the company, proceeded to trial in March 2023 on all counts. Sedlar was found guilty of conspiracy as well as multiple counts of filing a false document, grand theft, elder abuse, and prohibited acts by a foreclosure consultant. He will be sentenced on July 21.

California Home Values Rise In May: Zillow

California’s six biggest metros all saw increases in home values from April to May, according to a Zillow report released in mid-June.

Los Angeles: Home values increased 1.6% from April to May to $890,238. Mortgage payments (with 20% down payment) were $4,598, an increase of $2,098 from 2019. Year over year, newly pending sales were down 23.3%, new inventory was down 30.9%, and total inventory was down 19.8%.

San Francisco: Home values increased 1.4% to $1,128,962. Mortgages were $5,848, up $2,404 from 2019. Newly pending sales were down 9.3%, new inventory declined 31.4%, and total inventory dropped 22.6%.

The scheme resulted in a combined loss of over $7 million. The victims, including people who were elderly and in financial distress, sought mortgage relief services from Grand View Financial LLC in the counties of San Diego, San Mateo, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Placer, Solano, Mendocino, San Francisco, El Dorado, and Sacramento.

The operators of Grand View Financial - Sedlar, Steven Rogers, and Audrey Gan - were previously indicted by a grand jury in the Sacramento Superior Court for conspiracy, grand theft, elder abuse, filing false or forged documents in a public office, and engaging in a prohibited act as a

Riverside: Home values increased 0.9% to $552,267. Mortgages were $2,865, up $1,401 from 2019. Newly pending home sales were down 24%, new inventory was down 35.1%, and total inventory was down 15.3%.

San Diego: Home values were up 1.5% to $864,912. Mortgages were $4,462, up $2,165 from 2019. Newly pending sales were down 29.9%, new inventory was down 34.3%, and total inventory was down 29.4%.

Sacramento: Home values were up 1.2% to $565,368. Mortgages were $2,932, up $1,288 from 2019. Newly pending home sales were down 21.3%, new inventory was down 32.5%, and total inventory was down 26.7%.

San Jose: Home values were up 1.9% to $1,457,497. Mortgages were $7,538, up $3,156 from 2019. Newly pending home