USA Outlook, August 15 to August 19, 2022

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Weekly newsletter August 15 to August 19


August 15, 2022

August 16, 2022

Biden signs Inflation Reduction Act into law President Joe Biden signed a sweeping $750 billion health care, tax, and climate bill into law at the White House on Tuesday -- marking a major victory for his administration and the Democratic Party ahead of the midterm elections.

Photo: CBS News

Children head back to school but for some there may not be enough teachers in the classrooms When the school year starts on Wednesday, MiamiDade Public Schools will join districts across Florida in opening the school year with unfilled teaching spots. The state of Florida has an estimated 8,000 open teaching positions. To help fill the positions, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recently signed a new bill that would allow military veterans to teach with no degree.

Biden said during a signing ceremony in the State Dining Room that the legislation, called the Inflation Reduction Act, is "one of the most significant laws in our history." "With this law, the American people won, and the special interests lost," Biden told an audience of Democratic members of Congress and administration officials. "For a while people doubted whether any of that was going to happen, but we are in a season of substance." American presidents, he added, "should be judged, not only by our words but by our deeds, not by our rhetoric but by our actions, not by our promise but by reality. And today is part of an extraordinary story that's being written by this administration and our brave allies in the Congress."

In Illinois, 88% of school districts surveyed have a shortage. A survey from the Arizona School Personnel Administrators Association found that Arizona has more than 2,200 teacher vacancies. Jason Hammond is president of the International Alliance Group, an organization that helps place teachers from abroad in U.S. schools through a J1 visa. He said that the COVID-19 pandemic made it harder to fill vacant positions. "The pandemic has exacerbated the current situation and shortage. There are many contributing factors to that. Of course, teachers continue to be lower paid than other professionals with the same amount of education and responsibility levels," said Hammond. Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nationwide-shortage-of-teachers/

Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/16/politics/biden-inflation-reduction-actsigning/index.html


August 17, 2022

August 18, 2022

Report: U.S. Economy Slowing, Could Face Recession by End of Year The U.S. economy is facing increasing weakness that could bring a recession before the end of the year, the Conference Board warned on Thursday. The business organization’s forward-looking index of leading indicators fell by 0.4% in July on top of a 0.7% drop in June and has now declined for five consecutive months.

Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

Fed: Tight Monetary Policy to Remain Until Inflation Quelled Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting released Wednesday suggest the central bank will continue raising interest rates until it sees more evidence that it has broken the back of inflation. The minutes show that signs of a slowing economy and some improvement in inflation have occurred, yet policymakers anticipate a 50-basis point increase when the Fed next meets in September following two consecutive 75 basis point hikes in the past two months.

“The US LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting recession risks are rising in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, economics at the board. “Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the US economy,” he added. “The Conference Board projects the US economy will not expand in the third quarter and could tip into a short but mild recession by the end of the year or early 2023.” Housing, meanwhile, has slowed measurably. The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that sales of existing homes fell 5.9% in July, following a 5.4% drop in June. Sales are now down 20% from a year ago. New home construction, meanwhile, is slumping as construction costs rise and mortgage rates have nearly doubled from a year ago.

The Fed is on a path of tighter monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation, now running at an annual rate of 8.5%, under control. To that end, the central bank is raising interest rates to make borrowing costs higher for everything from business loans to mortgages and credit cards. The Fed is seeking to get inflation back within the range of 2% annually, but that could prove difficult. While many of the drivers of current inflation are pandemic-related, others such as a low labor force participation rate and disruptions in global energy markets relate to demographics and geopolitical tensions which could prove to be more long-lasting. Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-08-17/fed-tight-monetarypolicy-to-remain-until-inflation-quelled

Photo: Frederic j. Brown/AFP Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2022-08-18/report-u-seconomy-slowing-could-face-recession-by-end-of-year


August 18, 2022

Photo: The Associated Press

Jobless Claims Dip Slightly to 250,000 The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 last week, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The prior week was revised downward by 10,000 to 252,000. Claims often fluctuate week to week. The four-week moving average was 246,750, a drop of 2,750 from their prior period’s revised average. The number of claims reflects a labor market that is adjusting from the frantic pace of 2021 and earlier this year. Although employers added 528,000 new jobs in July, beating expectations, other data shows the job market has cooled ever so slightly with the number of new positions available falling and some wage pressure abating. Still, the Federal Reserve described the job market in July as “strong” in the minutes of last month’s meeting released on Wednesday. The Fed is looking to slow the economy to tamp down inflation running at an annual rate of 8.5% by raising interest rates and crimping demand. Already, that seems to be working with the housing sector turning down and some parts of the retail industry seeing a slowdown and changing consumer spending patterns. In an update to its market outlook released on Wednesday, Vanguard said it was downgrading its forecast for growth in the nation’s gross domestic product this year.

Souce: https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2022-08-18/jobless-claims-dip-slightly-to250-000


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