USA Outlook January 23 to January 27, 2023

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www.amchamguate.com WEEKLYNEWSLETTER JANUARY23TOJANUARY27

More US companies brace for job cuts amid likely recession, survey shows

A growing number of business economists expect companies to reduce their headcounts for the first time since the pandemic, a sign the job market is beginning to cool amid an increasingly dark economicoutlook.

That's according to a new survey published on Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, which shows that about 20% of the group's members expect employment at their companytofallinthecomingmonths.

Just 12% of those surveyed expect employment to riseoverthenextthreemonths–fewerthanhalfof the share who reported hiring more workers over the past three months. Roughly two-thirds of the respondents reportedwages increasing in the past threemonths,whichisunchangedfromNovember.

The results indicate widespread concern about entering a recession this year. More than half of respondents see the possibility of a recession over thenextyearat50%orhigher,thesurveyshowed.

U.S. business equipment borrowings grow 9% in December

U.S. companies borrowed 9% more in December to finance equipment investments compared with a year earlier, industry body Equipment Leasing and Finance Association (ELFA) said on Tuesday.

The companies signed up for $12.9 billion in new loans, leases and lines of credit last month, compared with $11.8 billion a year earlier, according to ELFA. Cumulative borrowings were up6%fromJanuary2022.

ELFA, which reports economic activity for the $1 trillion equipment finance sector, said credit approvals totaled 76.6% in December, down from 77.7%inNovember.

"NotknowingyetthefullimpactoftheFed'sseries of rapid rate increases on the economy, I believe many companies will start the year with more focus on credit quality and spreads versus origination volume," said AP Equipment Financing'spresident,ChrisLerma.

Souce: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/more-us-companies-brace-job-cuts-amidlikely-recession-survey-shows

January 24, 2023 January 23, 2023
Photo: K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal / Getty Images Photo: Canva Pro /Syammas P.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-01-25/u-s-businessequipment-borrowings-grow-9-in-december-elfa-jan-24
Souce:

New FDA Guidelines Could Have Massive Effect on Children’s Health

Since babiesandchildrenundertheageoftwoare most vulnerable to the harmful effects of lead, the U.S. Food & Drug Administration -FDA- will be setting action levels to hopefully cut down the amount ofleadinpackagedbabyfoodbyas much as27%.

The new guidelines limit concentrations in processed foods to 10 parts per billion in fruits, vegetables, and packaged meats, as well as products like yogurts, puddings, and mixtures, and 20partsperbillionfordrycereals.

The FDA’s draft guidance notes a few ways that manufacturerscanhelptoreduceleadlevelsinthe foodtheyproduce:

 Thoroughly washing fruits and vegetables, “particularlyleafyvegetables”

 Testing either ingredients or finished productsmoreoftenforelevatedleadlevels

 Reviewing production lines (including “facilities, processes, and equipment”) to make sure additional lead is not being introduced into the food during the manufacturingprocess

Souce:

https://thetakeout.com/new-fda-guidelines-could-have-massive-effect-on-childre1850030009

U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom

The U.S. economy finished 2022 in solid shape evenasquestionspersistoverwhethergrowthwill turnnegativeintheyearahead.

Fourth-quarter gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced for the October-to-December period, rose at a 2.9% annualized pace, the Commerce Department reportedThursday.

Thegrowth ratewasslightlyslowerthanthe3.2% paceinthethirdquarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 68% of GDP, increased 2.1% for the period, down slightly from 2.3% in the previous period but still positive.

Inflation readings moved considerably lower to end the year after hitting 41-year highs in the summer.Thepersonalconsumptionexpenditures price index increased 3.2%, in line with expectations but down sharply from 4.8% in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy, the chain-weightedindexrose3.9%,downfrom4.7%.

January 26, 2023 January 25, 2023
Photo: BLACKDAY (Shutterstock) Photo: John Angelillo/UPI Souce:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/gdp-q4-2022-us-gdp-rose-2point9percent-in-
the-fourth-quarter-more-than-expected-even-as-recession-fears-loom.html

10-year Treasury yield tops 3.52% as data watched by the Fed shows inflation increase

Treasury yields climbed on Friday as a key inflation report watched by the Federal Reserve indicated a sizableincreaseinprices.

Theyieldonthebenchmark10-yearTreasury wasupbyover3basispointsto3.526%.The2-yearTreasury yield was last trading at 4.199% after rising by around 2 basis points. Yields and prices have an inverted relationshipandonebasispointequals0.01%.

The core personal consumption price expenditures index rose by 4.4% from a year ago in December, the CommerceDepartment reportedFriday.Thatwasinlinewitheconomists’consensusestimatefromDow Jones.Includingfoodandenergycosts,inflationwasup5%onanannualbasis.

Afterastringoflighterinflationreadingslately,thedatamayhavedisappointedsometraders.Still,thecore inflationnumberdoesrepresentaslightslowdownfroma4.7%annualpacereportedinthepriormonth.

ThedatacouldimpacttheFed’snextinterestratedecision,whichisexpectedattheconclusionofitsnext meeting on Feb. 1. Many investors are hoping for the central bank to slow the pace of interest rate hikes furtherandannouncea25basispointincreasethen.

Souce:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/27/us-treasury-yields-investors-await-key-inflationreport.html

January 27, 2023
Photo: U.S. Department of the Treasury

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