USA Outlook, September 23 to 27, 2024

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Evacuations begin in Florida as the state faces a major hurricane strike from Helene

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Evacuations are underway and time is running out for Floridians to prepare for Tropical Storm Helene, which threatens to hit as the strongest storm to make landfall in the United States in over a year.

Helene formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday morning and will set off on a breakneck pace of strengthening. It could take Helene just 48 hours to go from a 45 mph tropical storm to a Category 3 major hurricane as it rapidly intensifies over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. ETadvisory. The Mexican government has also issued a hurricane warning from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.

Helene’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 60 mph with higher gusts, and the storm was on track to make landfall late Thursday on Florida’s Gulf Coast, possibly in the Big Bend region, the hurricane center said.

Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/24/weather/helene-florida-stormpreparations/index.html

Wall Street strikes back against New York's sovereign debt bill

Investors in emerging market sovereign bonds, alarmed by efforts to limit their debt restructuring options, are adding clauses to bond deals that would allow them to switch jurisdictions to avoid such curbs.

Two recent debt agreements, one pending in Sri Lanka and another agreed last year in Suriname, included clauses that would allow investors to change the location where potential disputes settle.

Such steps show that investors are mounting their defence against law changes that proponents say would help poor countries secure debt relief, but which financial firms argue could make emerging nations' bonds too risky for investors or too expensive for borrowers.

"The ideas ...are not going to go away," Andrew Wilkinson, senior restructuring partner at law firm Weil Gotshal said regarding proposed bills. "They will keep coming up, because there is a problem."

Source: https://www.reuters.com/markets/wall-street-strikes-back-against-new-yorks-sovereign-debtbill-2024-09-26/

Photo: CNN News
Photo: Reuters

Low

weekly US jobless claims, robust corporate profits highlight economy's resilience

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a four-month low last week, suggesting that the labor market remained healthy.

The upbeat outlook on the economy was underscored by other data on Thursday showing corporate profits increased at a more robust pace than initially thought in the second quarter.

Strong profit growth should help to underpin the labor market and investment. The economy's resilience could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to deliver another 50-basis points interest rate cut in November as some investors are hoping.

"The economy remains strong and the need for additional large rate cuts are questionable if the economy continues to move forward at a brisk pace," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended Sept. 21, the lowest level since mid-May, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters hadforecast 225,000claims. Unadjusted claims decreased 5,957 to 180,878 last week.

Fed seen cutting rates another 50 bps

in November

The Federal Reserve is likelier than not to deliver a second 50-basis-point interest rate cut in November, traders bet on Friday, after a government report showed U.S. inflation has cooled to a pace nearer to the central bank's 2% goal.

Inflation by the Fed's targeted measure, the yearover-year rise in the personal consumption expenditures price index, was 2.2% in August, the Commerce Department reported.

That's in line with what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expected in a news conference after last week's half-point cut. The big start to what's expected to be further reductions in the policy rate ahead was aimed at bolstering what Fed policymakers see as a softening but still-solid labor market.

"If the Fed wants to cut by another 50 basis points in November, the inflation data isn't going to stand in their way," wrote Inflation Insights Omair Sharif after the report. "In fact, the faster inflation cools, the more impetus there is for them to move faster to get to neutral."

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Photo: Reuters
Photo: Reuters

US Gulf Coast oil prices to take center stage as exports dominate

Rising U.S. crude oil exports are boosting the prominence of Gulf Coast price benchmarks and buoying trading volumes on Houston contracts, eroding the significance of the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub. Since U.S. WTI Midland crude oil transactions joined the dated Brent price assessment a year ago, U.S. oil exports have overshadowed the role of Cushing as a storage and pricing hub, traders and analysts said. Cushing has been the delivery and pricing point for West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) since 1983. The benchmark is currently used to price major U.S. crude grades for physical delivery, trading at a differential to WTI.

However, not long after the U.S. lifted its ban on crude exports in 2015 amid a shale boom that turned the country into the world's top producer, both the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.N), opens new tab and CME Group (CME.O), opens new tab, which owns NYMEX, launched contracts to trade and deliver crude from Midland, Texas, to terminals around Houston. Average daily volumes on CME's WTI Houston contract more than doubled so far in September to a record high year on year, the exchange said.

Source:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-gulf-coast-oil-prices-take-center-stage-exports-dominate-2024-09-27/

Photo: Reuters

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