USA OUTLOOK JUNE 12 TO JUNE 16, 2023

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www.amchamguate.com WEEKLYNEWSLETTER JUNE12TOJUNE 16

Manufacturing is sputtering in the world’s largest economies

Manufacturers around the world are contending with weakening demand as the economic outlook forthe industrydarkens.

Factories in the United States and across the eurozone reported a decline in new orders for manufactured goods in May as they worked throughtheirbacklogoforders,accordingtorecent business surveys released by data firm S&P Global. It’s unclear for how long those backlogs, which swelled in the early days of the pandemic, will sustaintheindustryglobally.

S&PGlobaldatashowedthattheUSmanufacturing sectorfellintocontractionterritory in May.A similar survey released by the Institute for Supply Management showed the industry contracted for the seventh consecutive month in May, at a faster pacethaninthepriormonth.

US government data also show what could be the beginning of a consistent slowdown. The Commerce Department reported on Monday that factory orders excluding transportation, a volatile category, fell for the third consecutive month in April. Excluding defense, factory orders were down infourofthe pastsixmonthsthroughApril.

Souce:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/11/economy/global-manufacturing-sputtering-

US consumer price increases slow; underlying inflation sticky

U.S. consumer prices barely rose in May and the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than two years, though underlying price pressures remained strong, supporting the view thattheFederalReservewouldkeepinterestrates unchanged on Wednesday while adopting a hawkishposture.

The smaller-than-expected rise in the Consumer PriceIndex,reportedbytheLaborDepartmenton Tuesday,reflecteddecreasesinthecostsofenergy products and services, including gasoline and electricity.Butrentsremainedstickyandpricesof usedcarsandtrucksrosefurther.

The CPI increased 0.1% last month after gaining 0.4% in April. Gasoline prices dropped 5.6%, while electricity declined for a third straight month. Utilitygasalsocostless.

But food prices rose 0.2% after being unchanged for two consecutive months as fruits and vegetables, nonalcoholic beverages and other food products became more expensive. Meat and fish, however, were cheaper, while egg prices fell 13.8%, themostsinceJanuary1951.

JUNE 13, 2023 JUNE 12, 2023
Photo: E. Jason Wambsgans/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service/Getty Images
economies/index.html
Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-slow-may-core-
Souce:
inflation-sticky-2023-06-13/

Thousands of dead fish wash up along Texas Gulf Coast

Beach crews spent the weekend clearing up thousands of dead fish along the Texas Gulf Coast, shoreofficialssaid.

The fish began washing up on Friday because of "a low dissolved oxygen event," Quintana Beach County Park posted on Facebook. The fish continued to wash up on Saturday. On Sunday morning,officialssaiditappearedthelastofthefish hadwashedashore.

"The most recent are deteriorated to the point of being shredded skeletons," the park said. Most of thefishthatdiedwere Gulfmenhaden.

As the fish kill continued, officials urged people to avoid swimming because of high bacterial levels andpotentialdangerfromthefish'ssharpfins.

Water samples taken from the area were found to have almost no dissolved oxygen, Quintana Beach County Park said. There was no evidence of a chemicalreleaseimpactingthe fish.

Oxygenalsoentersthewaterwhenwindandwaves meet, but the surfinthe area has been calmforthe pastseveralweeks.Cloudyconditionsmayhavealso contributedtothewater'slowoxygen levels.

Souce:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/thousands-dead-fish-texas-gulf-coast-quintanabeach-oxygen/

FDA advisers endorse updating COVID vaccines to target latest omicron strain

TheCOVID-19vaccinesareontrackforabigrecipe changethisfall.

Today’s vaccines still contain the original coronavirus strain, the one that started the pandemic — even though that was long ago supplanted by mutated versions as the virus rapidlyevolves.

Thursday, the Food and Drug Administration’s scientific advisers said the next round of shots in theU.S.shouldonlyincludeprotectionagainstthe newestvariantsthatarenowdominantworldwide —abranchoftheomicronfamilytreenamedXBB.

The FDA will make the final decision. Vaccine makers said during the meeting that they could have updated vaccines available within months, dependingonthestrain.

While infections have declined, the virus could be a realconcern next winter, FDA’s vaccine chief Dr. PeterMarkssaidasthe daylongmeetingbegan.

TheCOVID-19vaccinesareontrackforabigrecipe changethisfall.

JUNE 15, 2023 JUNE 14, 2023
Photo: HANDOUT/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES Photo: AP Photo/Ted Jackson, File
https://apnews.com/article/covid19-vaccine-booster-shot-coronavirus-fall72c0436ac9211f1a893fe8056106909d
Souce:

How will the Federal Reserve’s rate hike pause affect the dollar?

The Federal Reserve hit pause on its benchmark interest rate after hiking 10 times in a row in a battle to cooltheUS economyandtameinflation.

That rate-hiking campaign has also done something else: helped pump up the US dollar, maintaining an unexpectedstrength that reverberates across the economy. However, with the Fed’s pause, many experts believethedollar’smusclecouldstarttogiveout.

The dollarindex, whichtracks the greenback against six other currencies, has fallensince hitting a 20-year high inSeptember, butit’sstilltradingatnearmulti-yearhighs.

“Giventhe fact that the Fed has raised interest rates in the US at the fastest pace inabout 40 years… that’s attracted flows, which has helped keep the dollar strong,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, toldCNN.

Therippleeffectofarobustdollarpermeatesvariouspartsoftheeconomicpicture,frominternationaltrade totourism. Forone,astrongdollardirectlyimpactsthecostofimportinggoods.Productsmadeinforeign countriesbecomecheaper,relativetoAmerican-madegoods.

Souce:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/15/economy/fed-impact-on-strong-dollar/index.html

JUNE 16, 2023
Photo: Canva Pro

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