USA OUTLOOK JUNE 26 TO JUNE 30, 2023

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www.amchamguate.com WEEKLYNEWSLETTER JUNE26TOJUNE 30

Over 1,400 flights canceled as severe weather strikes East Coast

The East Coast is bracing for severe thunderstorms on Monday from New York down to South Carolina, potentially impacting more than 60 million Americans.

The biggest threats are lightning, large hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Airlines have cancelled more than 1,400 flights due tothesevereweather,withairportsinNewYorkCity, Boston and Atlanta getting hit the hardest.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through Monday night for Baltimore and Washington, D.C., as well as parts of western New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware.

Damaging winds are expected to hit Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York City, while flood watches have been issued from Virginia to New York.

Severe weather this weekend spawned at least 20 reported tornadoes across the Midwest. There were threeconfirmedtornadoesinIndiana,killingatleast one person and damaging or destroying dozens of homes, local authorities said.

Souce:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/severe-storms-east-coast-deadly-tornadoesmidwest/story?id=100373649

4th of July cookout will cost you less this year, according to American Farm Bureau

Good news for your Fourth of July cookout it's more affordable than last year. Families can expect to pay $67.73 for a party of 10, down 3% from last year's record high, according to a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Most of the 12 basket items surveyed saw decreases this year. The biggest savings came from items that broke records last year like chicken. Cases of the avian flu, which swept the country earlier this year, have fallen, giving the chicken population time to recover. Two pounds of chicken breasts cost $8.14 on average, down 9% from last year. The biggest drop in price is for lemonade — down 16% from last year at $3.73 for 2 ½ quarts, the survey said.

The cost of beef was up 4% this year to $11.54 for 2 pounds due to the cost of feed for cattle and decreased herd size. Potato prices also rose because of poor growing weather, the Farm Bureau said. Potatoes were up 5% to $3.44 for 2 ½ pounds of homemade potato salad. One package of hamburger buns saw the highest increase at 17% — $2.26 for a pack.

JUNE 27, 2023 JUNE 26, 2023
Photo: Eric Ford via TMX/via Reuters Photo: Miodrag ignjatovic/E+/Getty Images
https://www.ksl.com/article/50674767/4th-of-july-cookout-will-cost-you-less-thisyear-according-to-american-farm-bureau
Souce:

US economy 'quite resilient,' Fed Chair Jerome Powell says

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday voiced an optimistic message about the U.S. economy and downplayed the threat of a recession.

"TheU.S.economyhasactuallybeenquiteresilient," Powell said in Sentra, Portugal, at a conference organized by the European Central Bank. While acknowledging that a recession is "certainly possible," he said such an outcome is "not the most likely case." "The economy is resilient and still growing, albeit at a modest pace," he added.

The remarks arrived two weeks after the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive series of interest rate hikes, ending a string of 10 consecutive rate increases that stretched back 15 months.

The Federal Reserve has aimed to roll back price increases by slowing down the economy and slashing consumer demand. The approach, however,riskstippingtheeconomyintoarecession.

Inflation has fallen significantly from a peak last summer but remains at a level double the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

Souce:

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-economy-resilient-fed-chair-jeromepowell/story?id=100437185

Economic Data Points to Faster Growth Early in Year

The United States economy grew faster early this year than previously believed.

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, expandedatanannualrateof2percentinthefirst three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was a significant upward revision from the 1.1 percent growth rate in preliminary data released in April. (An earlier revision, released last month, showed a slightly stronger rate of 1.3 percent.)

An alternative measure of growth, based on income rather than production, painted a different picture, showing that the economy contracted for the second quarter in a row.

Consumers are powering the recovery through their spending, which increased at a 4.2 percent rate in the first quarter, up from a 1 percent rate in late 2022 and faster than the 3.7 percent rate initially reported in April. That spending, fueled by a strong job market and rising wages, helped offsetdeclinesinothersectorsoftheeconomylike business investment and housing.

JUNE 29, 2023 JUNE 28, 2023
Photo: Mandel NGAN / AFP An alternative measure of growth, based on Photo: Jim Wilson/The New York Times Souce:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/business/economy/economy-q1-gdp.html

US consumer spending edges up in May; inflation still high

U.S.consumerspendingslowedsharplyinMay,butpersistentlystrongunderlyinginflationpressurescould compel the Federal Reserve to resume raising interest rates next month.

Consumer spending edged up 0.1% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for April was revised lower to show spending accelerating 0.6% instead of 0.8% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.2%.

Last month's small gain implies consumer spending moderated in the second quarter after rising at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the January-March period. Nevertheless, the pace is probably still sufficient to help keep the economy expanding. Strong consumer spending accounted for the economy's 2.0%annualizedgrowthpacelastquarter, defyingfears ofa recessionbecause of the Fed's heftyratehikes.

Upbeat May data including job growth, housing starts and orders for long-lasting manufactured goods have led economists to expect that second-quarter gross domestic product growth would be close to the first-quarter pace. The Atlanta Fed is currently estimating GDP increasing at a 1.8% rate this quarter.

Consumer spending remains underpinnedbystrong wagegains ina tightlabormarket. Butthe outlook is less favorable. Most lower-income households are believed to have depleted savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumer-spending-edges-may-124757137.html

JUNE 30, 2023
Souce:
Photo: Yahoo Finance File Photo

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