Reimagining future economy : A fictional economic reality determined by the health of the earth Tung Han Wu Tunghan.wu@network.rca.ac.uk
Abstract This paper investigates how a fictional economic reality can be speculated with the power of design to challenge our world-view. Various speculative design methods showed that when the future is used as a design brief, infinite possible scenarios can be created based on the same set of criteria and factors within the created fictional premise. A series of “entry points� were designed in various formats, to invite viewers into the fictional world as an active imaginer.
Keywords Speculative design, economic realities, thought experiment, consumerism, material world
Introduction To summarize the concept of made by Frederick Jameson: it’s much easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.[1]Our fiction of the future is obsessed with disaster, because that seems more likely than the abolishment of the status quo. We live in a world that most people blindly accept the widespread effects of the current economic paradigm. Although the economy is omnipresent in our daily lives, its is often regarded a boring, uninteresting and too complicated. People are not aware of the economic realities happen to them, and being dominated by the formality of it. Yet, the relationships between economic paradigms, technological developments, and our daily life has been interrelated since the dawn of human civilization. Jeremy Rifkin inspired the emergence of this paper. In his book “ Zero Marginal Society,” he analyzed how every major economic paradigm shift alongside technological revolutions. Each creates systems of beliefs and assumptions that operate together to establish an integrated and unified worldview that is so convincing and compelling that it is regarded as equivalent to reality itself.[13] However, is the economy that rules our world a given entity by human revolution naturally, or is it a social science we all agreed upon on? As the disruptive capacities of technological innovations continue to advance at an exponential rate, economists have been aware that the capitalist economic model might unable to effectively manage resources and distribute wealth as technologies are poised to push marginal cost to near zero across every major sector. In other words, a new economic paradigm might emerge. However, this paper does not aim to future-forecast the possible financial situation that might replace capitalism. Instead, using design as a tool to serve as an imagination vehicle allows people to reverse the paradigm we wildly accept. • •
Can we shape new economic realities? Can we find alternatives to the current economic model?
How do we utilize design fiction as a thought experiment to more easily imagine an economic alternative. This paper sets out to first explore possible options to form a new economic indicator in order to speculate a new economic reality. Then the paper will illustrate how design can help forming possible/ probable scenarios based on the same set of criteria and factors
which function as a design brief to think about different versions within the created fictional premise. Finally, using speculative design methods to extract the essence of each scenario to provoke question and begin a dialogue where we second guess our relationship between the “economy” and its implication on our daily life.
Background The economic indicators used to judge the overall health of an economy were explored to determine potential vital factors to shape new economic realities. Humans have formed an economy that has successfully pulled most of the world's population out of poverty. Evolving global economic conditions has brought out a healthier and safer living environment in which people live more comfortably. Yet, our economic indicators are often evaluated by growth and growth only as of the performance index. Most people equate a healthy economy to a growing economy. This observed phenomenon presents an opportunity to rethink the way we examine the health of the economy. Is it possible to look at our economic situation through alternative lenses? Perhaps through a biological perspective, putting nature as a major actor in between humans and the economy. Or maybe, viewing the economy from a more humanistic point of view by making social relationships at its core. It became evident that an economic indicator that supports "Sustainability" in comparison to "Growth" in the economy is a more reasonable choice. If we look at the by-product of growth, a "healthier" economy has come with costs. Nonstop economic expansion is degrading Earth's ecosystems and putting a strain on its resources. Geologist Geerat Vermeij has characterized the economy as a coherent, integrated, dynamic system of interacting participants with complementary functions related to the use and distribution of resources. [2] Economic growth thus indicated an increase in the number of material resources converted into economic activity per time per capita. This statement can be verified by comparing world growth in GDP and Global ecological footprint over the past fifty years. Hence, this paper tends to answer the following question. How might we speculate an economic ecosystem that supports the health of the earth?
To foster a new financial system that resides in the potential for humanity to restructure society that supports our planet.
Methodology Although speculative design has garnered considerable attention during recent years, especially with the current global pandemic COVID-19, it remains pre-paradigmatic within the design fields. Ecotopia was developed in two main phases inspired by speculative design methodology laid out by Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby.[3] The double diamond design process by the British Design Council was also repeatedly utilized throughout the project with the help of divergent and convergent thinking.
what nature renews? The measurement instrument is called Ecological Footprint accounting . On the supply side, global biocapacity represents the productivity of its ecological assets.On the demand side, Ecological Footprint measures how much biologically productive surfaces of the Earth is required for every economic demand.[5] Defining the scope of the fictional world. Ecotopia - A fictional economic reality. Ecotopia sets the time in a pragmatic future with two main world rules that are different from the world we occupy. In this world, a truly sustainable economy is functioning within the limits of our natural capital. Ecotopia disciplined the usage of natural resources at average bio-capacity. Therefore, there is a fixed amount of bio-capacity everyone has according to the planet each year, a parallel bio-credit system limiting resource usage for each individual. How do we use the future as a brief? The scenarios depicted in the Ecotopia are not forecasts for what may or may not happen to this disciplined economic situation but examples from an infinite number of possible scenarios. This thought exercise could be repeated many more times and produce very different outcomes. These created scenarios are, however, based on the same theme and set of criteria together with a toolset that functions as a brief to think.
Figure 1: Double diamond design process. Source: [2]
Phase 1 : World building
In the stage, world building is about creating fictional worlds with purposes, be it for reflection, critique, provocation or inspiration. The designer’s task is to give from to a multiverse of infinite possibilities that contribute to a culture of imaginative alterity. This is often start with new laws, ethics, political systems, social beliefs, etc and in this case, new economic indicators. The exploring stage of this project started from the beginning of this paper, why and how a fictional economic alternative should be speculated were stated. While traditional economic indicators transformed its performance into numbers, it is hard to document our ecological performance. How do we track our demand on nature of economic activities against
Consumerism is set as the central theme to scenario-building activities, for its close relationship with our capitalist economy and our material lifestyle. Consumerism is widely regarded as the product of modern capitalism, with the Consumer goods market driven by the needs of accumulation and valorization.[6] Phase 2 : World Hinting
Speculative design tells worlds not stories. World hinting is about how the fictional premise can be translated into material expression through deliberate use of diegetic prototypes to act as synecdoches, allowing viewers to reverseengineer, explore the world rather than being forced down a prescribed path.
provides a simple way to come up with different versions of an alternative future since there is no way to make an accurate prediction of "the future.�[9] With the help of preset criteria along with the scenario-planning tool, I was able to repeat the process. Two of the scenarios were selected to move forward due to the time constraint of this project. Figure 2
The set of criteria (Figure 2) is inspired by various viewpoints from economist, futurists and environmentalists relevant to this context
Microbial Economy This new economic discipline has significantly affected the world. The over 50% decrease in material demand has managed to devastate the FMCG business, turning many countries into a true post-industrial society.
1. Cornucopian: Technological innovation will alleviate the problems associated with further economic expansions.[7] 2. Egalitarian: The world should reorient toward a “de-growth� society of a steady-state economy for ecological sustainability and better standards of living. [8]
Environmental- progressives collectively utilize their biocapacity credit to maximize their material wants. They are now turning to synthetic bio-material for local manufacturing. They embrace synthetic biology as the tool for improving their lifestyle, lowering their resource consumption by growing their own inputs of materials. The new bottom-up microbial economy is rising.
3. Commodification : Transformation of biocapacity into commodities of trade
The world hinting process of Ecotopia does not end here. The world-building of Ecotopia represents a distinct entity, one that we can see the overall shape of, but its complex internal structure is hidden from view. The two selected scenarios offer context to design a series of entry points through materialization. Through secondary research and interviews with Bio-Engineering professors, it is clear that living engineering is possible. Engineered microbes can turn simple ingredients such as water and sugar into materials with various mechanical properties in the future. In addition, microbial material presents a true cradle to cradle the possibility of a new manufacturing norm with near a hundred percent recycling rate.
Figure 3
The created diagram (Figure 3) act as a tool to inspire possible scenarios when working with unreality according to the theme and context. Each section can be filled with any word relevant during the process. Future archetype, however, is used from the four generic alternative futures rationales made by Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. It works as an exercise that
The aim of presenting this scenario serves two purposes. First, to provoke people if this is the manufacturing norm, the future should like if we want a truly sustainable plant? Second, shift the discussion of wealth creation from depleting natural resources to overlooked lifeforms. Bacterial cellulose was chosen as the material to design with for the final design outcome. It is an organic compound produced by bacteria that is durable, biocompatible, and over 10-times
stronger than plant-based cellulose, the main constituent of plant cell walls and vegetable fibers, as well as being used to produce paper. Bacterial cellulose was chosen not only for its properties and potential applications, but also there is much active research on how to genetic engineering bacterial cellulose for different applications. [10] Material experiments were conducted to verify the material cycle, as shown in figure 4.
an increase in the number of material resources converted to economic activity? (see appendix figure 6)
Bio-Marketplace Bio-economy has made our basic human right of acquiring material resources as a new luxury. A Bio-capacity market has showed up, allowing individuals and companies to free trade excess credit. This growing market has triggered many new economic activities that never exist in the human history. This results in the creation of a high frequency exchange which dictates prices in real time. The demand for resources hardly knows an upper limit. We can live in ever bigger homes, own more residences, and drive cars or ride planes almost as much as we like, provided we have the money. What will happen when this all go away?
figure 4
Stage one - Growing. Bacterial cellulose was grown in a room temperature setting with a symbiotic culture of bacteria and yeast purchased from Kombucha, cultured in a medium composed of coconut water and 1% of cyder vinegar. Stage two - Moulding A 3D printed mould was made to test out its mouldability into shapes. Stage three - Degrading Cellulase from Trichoderma Reesei was used to degrade bacterial cellulose into glucose. (see appendix figure 5) The final materialization of the “entry point” into this scenario took a conceptual and critical design method. A live biochemical installation called Grow Your Own Wealth was created. This installation not only showcases the material cycle of the new manufacturing norm but also create banknotes out of the BC material during the process. The apparatus play with the correlation between the creation of “Material “and “wealth” simultaneously in the present and fictional spaces. Within the current economic reality, what is our relationship with wealth and natural resources, when economic growth can be viewed as
The World hinting process for this scenario took a different design methodology within the critical design practice, Dark Design. Critical design can question the emotional, and psychological experiences conveyed through each design. While design usually is assumed only to make better things, solving problems; this limitation prevents designers from sufficiently working with the complexities of the world and humanities. In speculative design, darkness can draw out positivity through a not so positive possible future in the form of a cautionary tale. The Positive use of Negativity can be compelling. [3] By using this method, this scenario is presented to provoke the following ideas to the viewer. First, Within the premise of Ecotopia, for the first time, our fundamental human right to acquire material resources is a luxury. Second, How easy it is to achieve an ecological deficit in the present world we live in. The aim is to challenge our beliefs of the society embodied in material culture when one can always purchase more and more with sufficient money. Props and Make-Believe
Fictional objects are a common way when presenting design fiction. It facilitates imagining the world they belong to. According to Kendall L. Walton, props are objects that “prescribe imaginings about their content”[11] However, unlike film props that do not support inventiveness but references, fictional objects needed to signal their unreality. Therefore, the design skills of triggering an imaginative response in the viewer are extra crucial. In this case, final
delivery of this scenario access points included props that were designed to shift the discussion from abstract to tangible examples locating in consumer society context. Foot-printer Foot-printer was designed as the prop that links to people’s personal bio-capacity account and Bio-Marketplace. It prints out an individual’s footprint statement among every material consumption. The Footprint data was borrowed and revised from the Ecological Footprint report of York in 2002. (see appendix ,figure 7)
Capacity self-checkout Observed from people’s daily routine as a consumer, self-checkout machines was repurposed as a entry-point to the scenario. In Ecotopia, Physical marketplace now provide selfcheckout machines, allowing customers to purchase more bio-capacity via the trading platform. (see appendix, figure 8)
viewers various kinds of access points into the fictional word with strong, provocative impact. Due to the lack of framework and structure, speculative design remains challenging to measure its success. As a form of critical design, should we level its success by the originality of the topic, the execution of a proposal, or its impact to make people think? Is it even important to evaluate these kinds of projects? Nevertheless, there are two criteria a critical design fiction should achieve, to maximize its capability. First, Critical design needs to be closer to the every day; that’s where its power to disturb lies. Second, it should be well fitted in the here-and-now while belongs to another yet-toexist world. That is why physicals as intended fictional outcomes are crucial as they might be present in this world while embodied with values and beliefs that belong to other worlds. Ultimately, for this project, this project requires a shift in the role of viewers. When this whole design fiction allows enough space for viewers to make their own interpretations, they must become active imaginers
Conclusion Result and Discussion
The world is moving toward a global monoculture that makes imagining alternatives almost impossible. We need to purpose a distinctive world-view that challenges our beliefs, hopes, and fears. And that is what design is good at, to the purpose and suggest something, then extract the essence to communicate with people. This paper examined why and how the so-called “ Capitalist realism” should be challenged with the means of design. Although the proposal of a new economic indicator that draws the boundary of Ecotopia came through research, the whole project did not lose its imaginative and provocative qualities to enable social dreaming. Ecotopia consists of installation, props, and video together with scenario narratives as final deliverables. This was due to the need to provide
This paper showed that Ecotopia is one design fiction that used many different methods to help people reverse the paradigm we are forced to accept in our economy as well as imagine how a new everyday economic reality could be like. •
Developing the full potential of Ecotopia would require the following steps:
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Bring the project into a exhibition setting either in a museum or gallery in order to better ensure viewers are ready to be active imaginers.
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The Scenario creating tool should be tested out on people in order to validate its effectiveness on non-designer people and improve.
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Improving the installation piece “grow your own wealth” to be fully automated and functional for a long period of time so that it can sit in a exhibition setting.
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Questioning how it makes people feel, whether viewers were triggered to ask question and finally whether viewers experience dilemmas between alternatives to document as insights. These insights can be later used to form a structure to reflect and refine the project
Acknowledgements
[5]M. Wackernagel and B. Beyers, Ecological Footprint. Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, 2019. [6]M. Varul, "Towards a consumerist critique of capitalism: A socialist defence of consumer culture | ephemera", Ephemerajournal.org, 2013. [Online]. Available: http:// www.ephemerajournal.org/contribution/towardsconsumerist-critique-capitalism-socialist-defenceconsumer-culture. [Accessed: 15- May- 2020].
I wish to thank the following people who contributed greatly to the development of my final major project:
[7]Y. Harari, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind.. Harper, 2015.
Dr. Weston Baxter : my major project tutor who gave advice and guidance in developing Ecotopia.
[8]J. Schor, Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth. Scribe Publications, 2013.
Jack Mama: senior tutor who gave lots of advice and methodologies on executing design fiction project
[9]J. Dator, "Alternative Futures at the Manoa School", University of Hawaii, 2009.
Dr. Vali Lalioti: senior tutor who arranged all the academic activity during the remote learning period. Dr. David Boyle: who gave a workshop on how to write an academic paper. Dr. Viviane Goosens: who gave me lots of advice and guidance on culturing bacterial cellulose at home as well as knowledge about living engineering.
Bibliography [1]F. Jameson, "Fredric Jameson, Future City, NLR 21, May–June 2003", New Left Review, 2003. [Online]. Available: https:// newleftreview.org/issues/II21/articles/fredricjameson-future-city. [Accessed: 15- May- 2020]. [2]O. Mink, W. Oosterhuis and J. Bares, Economia. 2017. [3]A. Dunne and F. Raby, Speculative everything. [S.l.]: MIT, 2014. [4]Double diamond design process. 2004.
[10]J. Wang, "Bacterial cellulose production, properties and applications with different culture methods – A review", Tianjin Polytechnic University, 2019. [11]K. Walton, Mimesis as make-believe. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Univ. Press, 2004. [12]J. Barrett, "A Material Flow Analysis and Ecological Footprint of York", Stockholm Environment Institute, 2012. [13]J. Rifkin, Zero marginal cost society. St. Martin's Publishing Group, 2015.
Appendix
(figure 5, Bacterial cellulose experiments )
(figure 6, “grow your own wealth installation )
(figure 7, Foot-printer )
(figure 8, Bio-capacity checkout machine) )