WITH THE PROSPECT OF THE FIRST EVER CHRISTMAS LOCKDOWN, WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR LOCALRETAILERS ACROSS THE UK. THE WEEK IN RETAIL GOES HUNTING FOR PREDICTIONS.
BY ANTONY BEGLEY
With England in lockdown, Scotland in a curious five-tier form of lockdown and Wales and Northern Ireland struggling through their own forms of lockdown, it’s looking increasingly likely that the key Christmas trading period will be like nothing we’ve ever known. Could it spark another spike in sales in the convenience trade? Or could it end up being a washout for local retailers as consumers hunker down and satisfy themselves with one enormous trip to Tesco?
The latest weekly data from Channel Pulse (w/c 19 Oct 2020), Lumina Intelligence’s weekly measure of shopper and consumer behaviour across all UK food and drink channels, suggest that a huge proportion of shoppers – 59% – are waiting to see what government restrictions will be in place before making any plans for Christmas.
However, despite the reluctance to make plans and the possible restrictions around large gatherings, only 13% of consumers are planning on buying less food and drink for Christmas lunch/dinner than they did last year.
If that turns out to be an accurate prediction, it brings a raft of new challenges for retailers in terms of merchandising and managing stock levels. The research found that, in contrast to those waiting for more information, 10% of shoppers are planning on purchasing their groceries for Christmas lunch/ dinner earlier this year, due to coronavirus. That certainly looks the case with Christmas starting a lot earlier than normal, if the rash of festive displays in supermarkets and convenience stores as early as October is anything to go by.
Historically, Christmas is time when shoppers trade up and treat themselves to more premium products. However, in light of the current circumstances, only 3% of shoppers are planning to trade up to more premium/expensive food or drink products this Christmas, says the Lumina research. In fact, 79% of shoppers indicated that value for money was important to them when purchasing gifts and groceries this Christmas.
Shoppers are also focusing on sustainability and eating mindfully this Christmas. Over half of shoppers say that sustainability is important to them and four in 10 say ‘mindful’ eating is important to them when purchasing gifts and groceries this Christmas.
Greta Glaveckaite, Insight Manager at Lumina Intelligence said: “Christmas and premiumisation generally go hand-inhand, as shoppers look to treat themselves during the festive period. However, this year, as uncertainty around the UK economy and the impact of coronavirus continues, shoppers are looking to tighten their belts and limit unnecessary expenses. Focusing on value for money could be key to driving footfall this Christmas, rather than premium ranges.”
“Retailers are also left with challenges around merchandising, as nearly two thirds of shoppers are delaying making Christmas plans until more information on government guidelines is available. On a positive note, despite the current restrictions around gatherings, only 13% of shoppers are planning on buying fewer food and drink items this year.”
STUART REDDISH, NFRN PRESIDENT
“It’s regrettable that we are now about to enter our second national lockdown, although it is needed to keep the country safe. I know that NFRN members will, once again, rise to the challenge ahead whilst putting themselves at risk to keep the nation watered and fed.
“Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, NFRN members have never stopped putting their communities first, ensuring customers have access to all the essentials that they need. For the next four weeks and beyond, they will continue to be a very stable point of contact in such a strange and challenging time.
“As before, the NFRN will continue to support members by sharing government and supplier announcements as news breaks, through our Hardship Fund which we created to alleviate some of the financial pressures that independent retailers may be facing, through advice and help. The NFRN is there for independent retailers in their hour of need. We are here for you and together we can get through this.”
DAVID LONSDALE, SCOTTISH RETAIL CONSORTIUM DIRECTOR
“Shopper footfall continues to buckle under the weight of the pandemic, associated Covid restrictions and warnings about using public transport, and economic uncertainty. Footfall in Glasgow alone was down 36% in October compared to the same period last year. Visits to retail destinations in Scotland are languishing a third lower than last year, and make for unnerving reading for retailers in this early part of the crucial Christmas trading period.
“Scotland’s shops will only survive with the patronage of the public, especially in the run up to the festive period. Retailers are playing their part in trying to tempt shoppers though promotions and pricing, but policy makers need to think more creatively too about how they can entice people back into our retail destinations, perhaps through free parking for the next seven weeks or vouchers or incentives to encourage customers to the shops.”
PADDY LILLIS, USDAW GENERAL SECRETARY
“While we understand the need for another lockdown to help defeat this appalling pandemic, the Prime Minister cannot ignore the devastating impact this will have on our high streets in the run-up to Christmas. Retail was already struggling before the pandemic and the industry has suffered over 125,000 retail job losses and 14,000 store closures this year.
“Throughout the Covid crisis Usdaw engaged with the Government. However that joint working has stopped and the Government appears to no longer be listening, which is very worrying as we are now in a second lockdown. So we want to hear the Prime Minister set out how the Government is going to support our high streets.
“We have a choice here. Do we want to see the high street go to the wall, or do we want to save it? Retail is an important feature of our towns and cities; it employs three million people across the UK. What retail needs is a tripartite approach of unions, employers and government working together to develop a plan to help the industry through a second lockdown.”
JOHN DUNNE, UKVIA DIRECTOR GENERAL
“While we recognise the predicament that the Government faces, the vaping industry feels extremely disappointed that the vaping sector has once again been overlooked as one providing essential goods and services. Only earlier this year Public Health England acknowledged the contribution played by vaping in helping smokers quit.
“It seems strange – and illogical – that the Government is happy for people to continue shopping for alcohol in off-licences, which don’t appear to be on the non-essential shop closure list, but does not allow them to buy vape products or gain specialist advice in store that can help them to quit smoking, which according to PHE is at least 95% more harmful than vaping e-liquids.
“As a FMCG sector it will be important for the vaping industry to reopen for business in early December, the target date for the end of the second lockdown, so it can maximise sales in the lead up to Christmas and safeguard the thousands of people it employs in the manufacture, wholesale, quality control and retail of vape products.”
