Political Tea Leaves: Connecting the past with the Future
Lonna AtkesonDirector LeRoy Collins Institute
LeRoy Collins Eminent Scholar in Civic Education and Political Science
Florida State University
Where we ended in 2020—really divided
• An unexpectedly close race for the presidency.
• The results were a split decision by the American people
• Democrats captured the WH and gained in the Senate
• Republicans gained in the House and in the States
White House US Senate US House State Leg Chambers Govs 2018 Republican 53R – 45D-2I 236D – 199R 59R – 39D 26R – 24D 2020 Democratic 50R – 48D-2I 222D – 211R 61R – 37D 27R – 23D Gain FLIP D+3 R+12* R+2 R+1
Biden Wins Electoral College and Popular Vote
No Coat tails for Biden: can he claim a mandate?
Status Quo Election: Fewest Legislative Chamber
Switches since 1946 (2 in 2020 NH, 2 in 2019 VA)
Historic Engagement from the US public: Highest Turnout Since 1900
How did the 2022 elections change the governing landscape?
White House US Senate US House Govs 2018 Republican 53R – 45D-2I 236D – 199R 26R – 24D 2020 Democratic 50R – 48D-2I 222D – 211R 28R – 22D 2022 Democratic 49R – 48D-3I 213D – 222R 26R -- 24D Gain No Election D+3? (no change) R+11* (change) D+2 (no change)
In 2020-22 we had Uniform 1 party control, this is fleeting in DC
Alignments only last 1 federal election cycle
But there was a lot of stability for a change election, incumbents won easily
Governors 96% 27/28 Only NV Senators 100% 28/28 HOUSE 97.5% 356/365
That’s pretty typical for the House, but 100% for the Senate is not, last happened in 1914
Lots of Stability in terms of who won
Normalcy: President keeps control of Senate after first midterm when their party controlled it preelection
Normalcy: Party in WH lost seats
House Seats Lost/Won by Pres Party in Midterms
-45 -29 -18 -48 -4 -47 -12 -48 -15 -26 -5 -8 -52 5 8 -30 -63 -13 -40 -9 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
But there was no a red wave
In fact, Democrats exceeded expectations
And Americans turned out in relatively strong numbers, it wasn’t 2018
What happened? Candidates & Issues Matter to
Election Outcomes
• Poor GOP Candidate Quality offset traditional Midterm Tailwinds in open or competitive statewide or district seats
• Many statewide candidates were inexperienced newbies in very competitive contests
• GOP challengers lost when they scared voters with extreme positions
• GOP incumbents, on the other hand, won when they focused on today’s challenges rather than past conspiracies
Democrats wanted to elect them too & may have made the difference (worrisome meddling)
Trump not a candidate, but has (negative) influence
Which party scares you more? Issues in the 2022 Election, how they painted each other
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
Increasing Inflation
Open Border policy
Pro-crime (defund the police)
Abortion
Criminalize doctors, women
Undermining democracy
Peddling conspiracy
The role of Dobbs and Abortion (June 24, 2022)
Abortion was the number 1 Democratic Issue
Inflation
Abortion
Crime
Gun Policy
Immigration
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Abortion a good call For Democrats
Elections are about the Future not the past! Election
Denial Hurt Candidates esp among independents
Spending
was pretty competitive
Where was the money coming from?
What about Florida?
DeSantis Beats Trump
Florida was an outlier: Red wave happened here
DESANTIS 2022 TRUMP 2020 59.40% Winning % 51.20% 63% Men 55% 52% Women 48% 64% White 61% 57% Hispanic 45% 13% Black 9% 63% Older 55% 42% Younger 34% 61% Married 60% 54% College 50% 60% No College 52% 69% White No College 64%
$204,748,318 TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS
$122,409,831 TOTAL EXPENDITURES
Gov. DeSantis Raised more than any other gubernatorial candidate ever
$31,930,065 TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS
$31,265,116 TOTAL EXPENDITURES
Crist Raised a typical amount, but that doesn’t compete with DeSantis more than ever
FL Changes in Partisanship
Registration by the numbers
3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
GOP Dem NPA
Party Registration by the Numbers 2017-22
But it’s all about turnout
DEM NPA GOP Total 2022 Midterm 33.4% 21.2% 45.4% 100% 2018 Midterm 38.1% 20.9% 40.9 100% Difference -5.3% -0.3% 4.5% 2022 Midterm 2554074 1625588 3471945 7651607 2018 Midterm 2924949 1606032 3140303 7671284 Difference -370,875 19556 331,642
Where we stand, it’s tough to govern
But bipartisanship isn’t dead
The debt ceiling will pass, but it will be a bargaining chip
Polarization is huge: Gap Between parties keeps growing
Trust at an all time low
Voters are unsatisfied with the way things are going
Looking to 2024: Latest polls Ds are not for Biden
Nomination calendar has changed, parties are different
Republicans
• DeSantis
• Trump • Haley (Former UN Ambassador)
• Pence (Former VP)
• Pompeo ? (Former SOS)
• Youngkin ? (Gov of Virginia)
• Hogan ? (Former Gov of MD)
Democrats
• Biden?
• Harris (VP US)
• Buttigieg (Transportation Secretary)
• Klobuchar (US Senator MN)
• Warren (US Senator Mass)
• Ray Cooper (Former Gov of NC)
Senate Looks Tough for Dems
Continuation of 50-50 polarizing politics
Discussion
