Presented by The In Between School planning, shifting demographics, and how to plan for infrastructure with funding gaps
Presenters
Orange County Public Schools
Stephanie Doster
Hillsborough County Public Schools
Benesch
Nilgün Kamp, AICP
Renee Kamen
Thomas Moore
Presentation Title 2
Volusia County Schools
APA Public Schools and Communities Division
To join, email us at schools@planning.org
MISSION STATEMENT: To create stronger linkages between the planning profession and public school districts in order to support and strengthen public education and public schools, create stronger neighborhoods and communities, and increase opportunities for our youth and their families.
3
APA Public School Interest Group will soon be
Overview
ANNUAL AVERAGE POPULATION GROWTH RATE TRENDS Population Trends Presentation Title 5 -0.50%-1.00%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Hillsborough FloridaVolusiaOrange Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Economic & Business Research
ANNUAL AVERAGE POPULATION GROWTH RATE (1990-2021) Population Rankings Presentation Title 6 0.50%0.00% 1.00% 5.00%4.50%4.00%3.50%3.00%2.50%2.00%1.50% Gadsden Monroe Madison Pinellas Putnam Jackson Hamilton Taylor Escambia Bradford Calhoun Holmes Hardee Jefferson Gulf Okeechobee Liberty Franklin Bay Miami-Dade DeSoto Lafayette Highlands Okaloosa Washington Duval Volusia Leon Brevard Union Baker Broward Alachua Martin Hendry Dixie Sarasota Glades Suwannee Columbia Seminole Citrus Levy Florida Charlotte BeachPalm RiverIndian Hillsborough Polk Gilchrist Hernando Manatee Marion Pasco Clay Nassau Orange LucieSt. Lee RosaSanta Wakulla Collier Lake Walton JohnsSt. Osceola Flagler Sumter Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Economic & Business Research
ANNUAL AVERAGE PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH RATE (2021-2050) Population Rankings Presentation Title 7-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00% Hardee Gadsden Putnam Holmes Madison DeSoto Taylor Monroe Jackson Bradford Calhoun Okeechobee Hamilton Dixie Liberty Pinellas Jefferson Glades Lafayette Highlands Suwannee Union Washington Escambia Columbia Gulf Leon Hendry Martin Broward Miami-Dade Baker Bay Levy Gilchrist Alachua Citrus Franklin Seminole BeachPalm Okaloosa Volusia Brevard Duval Hernando Marion Sarasota RiverIndian Clay Wakulla Charlotte Collier Hillsborough Pasco Orange RosaSanta Manatee Polk Lee LucieSt. Nassau Flagler Lake Walton JohnsSt. Osceola Sumter Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research; Medium Level Projections
ABSOLUTE GROWTH (1990-2021) Population Rankings Presentation Title 8 800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000 Madison Liberty Hamilton Lafayette Gadsden Calhoun Jefferson Gulf Franklin Taylor Holmes Glades Monroe Bradford Union Hardee Jackson Dixie Washington Putnam Gilchrist Okeechobee DeSoto Baker Hendry Suwannee Levy Wakulla Columbia Highlands Nassau Walton Bay Martin Citrus Escambia Okaloosa RiverIndian Charlotte Flagler Hernando Leon Alachua Sumter Pinellas RosaSanta Clay Sarasota Marion Seminole LucieSt. Volusia Manatee JohnsSt. Brevard Collier Lake Pasco Osceola Duval Polk Lee BeachPalm Hillsborough Broward Orange Miami-Dade Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Economic & Business Research
PROJECTED ABSOLUTE GROWTH (2021-2050) Population Rankings Presentation Title 9-100,0000100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000 Hardee Madison Holmes Liberty Gadsden Calhoun Taylor Lafayette Hamilton Glades DeSoto Dixie Jefferson Bradford Putnam Union Gulf Jackson Okeechobee Franklin Washington Monroe Gilchrist Suwannee Baker Hendry Levy Columbia Highlands Wakulla Martin Bay Citrus Escambia Leon Nassau RiverIndian Okaloosa Walton Hernando Alachua Charlotte Flagler Clay Pinellas RosaSanta Sumter Seminole Marion Collier Sarasota Volusia Brevard LucieSt. Manatee JohnsSt. Lake Pasco Duval Osceola Polk Broward BeachPalm Lee Miami-Dade Hillsborough Orange Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research; Medium Level Projections
RESIDENTIAL PERMITTING TRENDS (1990-2021) Permitting Trends Presentation Title 10 20,02018,02016,02014,02012,02010,0208,0206,0204,0202,02020 Hillsborough Orange Volusia Florida AvgSource: U.S. Census Bureau
Permitting Rankings (2021) Presentation Title 11 0 2,000 16,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,000 Liberty Holmes Okeechobee Calhoun Hamilton Taylor Lafayette Union Dixie Madison Hardee Bradford Washington Gadsden Jackson Glades Putnam Jefferson Franklin Baker DeSoto Suwannee Levy Columbia Gulf Gilchrist Wakulla Monroe Highlands Hendry Martin Okaloosa RiverIndian Nassau Hernando Escambia Citrus RosaSanta Alachua Leon Clay Walton Bay Pinellas Flagler Seminole Broward Lake Sumter Charlotte Brevard Volusia Marion Collier LucieSt. Sarasota BeachPalm Manatee JohnsSt. Pasco Osceola Duval Hillsborough Orange Polk Miami-Dade Lee Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Hillsborough Orange FloridaVolusia
Source:
U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey 35.030.025.020.0 40.0 50.045.0
Median Age Trends Presentation Title 12
Median Age Rankings (2020) Presentation Title 13 80.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.00.0 Leon Alachua Hendry Orange Hardee Osceola Duval Okaloosa Escambia Hillsborough Baker Lafayette Seminole Bradford Clay Union Hamilton RosaSanta Miami-Dade Polk Broward Bay Columbia Liberty DeSoto Okeechobee Washington Gadsden Gilchrist Calhoun Holmes Jackson Wakulla Taylor Suwannee JohnsSt. Walton Madison Pasco BeachPalm Putnam LucieSt. Nassau Dixie Gulf Volusia Lake Levy Brevard Franklin Jefferson Glades Monroe Pinellas Marion Hernando Lee Manatee Collier Flagler Martin RiverIndian Highlands Sarasota Citrus Charlotte Sumter Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey
STUDENT GENERATION RATES (2014-2020) Student Generation Rate Trends Presentation Title 14 0.200 0.4500.4000.3500.3000.250 FloridaVolusiaOrangeHillsborough Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey
Student Generation Rate Rankings (2020) Presentation Title 15 0.6000.5000.4000.3000.2000.1000.000 Sumter Monroe Charlotte Franklin Gulf Sarasota Walton Citrus Collier Pinellas Highlands RiverIndian Martin Lee Dixie Jefferson Bay Glades Manatee Alachua Volusia Madison Flagler Levy Taylor Brevard Marion Hernando Jackson BeachPalm Putnam Leon Nassau Pasco Escambia Lake Okaloosa LucieSt. Washington Holmes Okeechobee DeSoto Duval Gadsden Broward Liberty Suwannee Union Bradford Wakulla Seminole Columbia Polk JohnsSt. Miami-Dade Calhoun Hillsborough Orange RosaSanta Hamilton Gilchrist Osceola Lafayette Clay Baker Hendry Hardee Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey
Volusia County Schools
• Student population: 63,114 • School Buildings: 89 schools • County Size: 1,432 square miles • Employees: 7,850 • Student Demographics: ▪ Ethnicity: 22% Hispanic ▪ Race: 54% W, 16% B, 30% O ▪ Free & reduced lunch: 65% • Transportation: Approx. 38,500 student bus riders per day, on 168 busses Who is VCS? The In Between VCS 17 WEHERE!ARE
Volusia County Schools 62,948 63,149 63,176 63,204 63,166 63,060 62,981 62,960 62,877 63,264 63,344 63,298 63,250 63,258 63,148 63,033 62,972 62,834 62,931 63,049 63,112 63,007 62,835 62,781 62,664 62,619 62,550 60,864 61,326 61,260 61,461 61,314 61,372 61,447 61,396 61,309 62,468 62,753 62,799 62,794 62,794 62,743 62,611 62,605 62,52063,50062,50061,50060,500 Day 20 Day 40 Day 60 Day 80 Day100 Day 120 Day 140 Day 160 Day 180 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 COVID-19 SCHOOLYEAR POST COVID SCHOOLYEAR
Student Enrollment Comparison Presentation Title 18
Source:
District Enrollment Presentation Title 19 64,69663,27162,41661,68461,124 61,23461,82962,850 63,04362,94863,264 62,931 60,86462,468 62,54662,57162,52462,28862,123 58,000 59,000 60,000 61,000 62,000 63,000 64,000 65,000 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2014 15 2015 16 2016 17 2017 18 2018 19 2019 20 2020 21 2021 22 2022 23 2023 24 2024 25 2025 26 2026 27 COVID-19
Enrollment 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
PROJECTIONS COVID
Presentation Title 20
Changes (560) 110 595 1,021 193 (95) 316 (333) (2,067) 1,604 2578 (47) (236)(165) (2,500) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Presentation Title 21
StudentsCorridorConservationSchools
Presentation Title 22
Presentation Title 23 Diminishing Market Share SY 2011-2012 SY 2021-2022 % GROWTH Total K-12 students 69,905 72,920 4.1% Traditional K-12 Public Schools 59,720 85% 59,806 82% 0.1% Charter Schools 1,916 3% 2,662 4% 28.0% Private Schools 6,656 10% 7,472 10% 10.9% Home School 1,613 2% 2,980 4% 45.9% 100% 100%
Presentation Title 24 Factors Affecting Enrollment DEMOGRAPHICS ▪ Population changes ▪ Shifts, birth rates, migration patterns HURRICANES ▪ Harvey, Irma, Maria & Michael ▪ Puerto Rico, other counties in the state GROWTH & NEW RESIDENTIAL ▪ Student generation eastside vs westside areas of the county COVID-19 PANDEMIC ▪ Shift to homeschooling, charters & private schools ▪ Students returning to public schools after the pandemicSCHOOL CHOICE ▪ Growth of homeschooling & private school enrollment ▪ Scholarships – Corporate, McKay, Hope
Presentation Title 25
Enrollment vs Unemployment During COVID 2019-01-01 2019-02-01 2019-03-01 2019-04-01 2019-05-01 2019-06-01 2019-07-01 2019-08-01 2019-09-01 2019-10-01 2019-11-01 2019-12-01 2020-01-01 2020-02-01 2020-03-01 2020-04-01 2020-05-01 2020-06-01 2020-07-01 2020-08-01 2020-09-01 2020-10-01 2020-11-01 2020-12-01 2021-01-01 2021-02-01 2021-03-01 2021-04-01 2021-05-01 2021-06-01 2021-07-01 2021-08-01 2021-09-01 2021-10-01 2021-11-01 2021-12-01 2022-01-01 2022-02-01 2022-03-01 2022-04-01 2022-05-01 2022-06-01 2022-07-01
59500 60000 60500 61000 61500 62000 62500 63000 63500 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0
UNEMPLOYMENT ENROLLMENT LOCKDOWNSCOVID-19 DAY 20 SYPANDEMIC2020/2021 DAY 20 SY POST2021/2022-PANDEMIC DAY 20 SY PRE2019/2020-PANDEMIC
Presentation Title 26 Construction Challenges SHORTAGE OF QUALIFIED WORKERS CONSTRUCTIONSOARING COSTS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONCHAIN& MATERIALS SOURCING ISSUES COVID-19 INFLATION
Bid Date: Jun 2019 Listed GMP: $19.4M Bid Date: Mar 2020 Listed GMP: $51.1M Bid Date: Sep 2021 Listed GMP: $26.4M Bid Date: 2022 Proposed GMP: $40M
Hillsborough County Public Schools
• Student population: 218,000+ • School Buildings: 250+ • County Size: 1,260+ square miles • Employees: 30,000+ • Student Demographics: minority, majority and 60% of students qualify for free and reduced-price meals • Transportation: 90,000 students per day, on 1,000 busses Who is HCPS? The In Between HCPS 30 WEHERE!ARE
31 HCPS Market Share Source: 40th Day Student Report, ARIA Year Traditional School Enrollment Charter School Enrollment PercentChange Traditional Enrollment to 10.5% 2017-18 193,204 - 20,263 - 10.5% 2018-19 192,740 -0.2% 22,320 9.% 11.6% 2019-20 192,429 -0.2% 25,016 11% 13% 2020-21 182,363 -5.0% 26,103 4% 14.3% 2021-22 184,936 1.0% 34,770 25% 18.8%
32 HCPS 2020 Long-Range Plan ES Available Capacity ES Available Capacity w/ Reservations
HCPS Long-Range Plan
34
2020
HS Available Capacity HS Available Capacity w/ Reservations
operates 216 traditional
As of SY 2022-23, HCPS public schools:
35 School Construction 1900 -1970 1971-2021* 2022- 2037** 76 ES 2114MSHS 43Comboother 72 ES 20 MS 16 HS 213Comboother 12 ES 33MSHS 2 Combo 1 other * Two schools (an ES & MS built in 2006 & 2007) were combined to create the 3rd Combination school in 2018. ** This does not include three additions that have added additional ES, MS and HS schools, as well as a conversion of MS seats to HS seats all in southern HC.
137 elementary, 42 middle, 28 high and 10 PK8 schools. Over the next 15 years, an additional 18 new schools are needed to meet the demand of the projected student population.
the
36 Challenges • Competing for developable land in a hot real estate market • Building schools in areas with “substandard” roadways • Increasing school construction costs
Orange County School District
• Student population: 205,000+/• School Buildings: 210 • County Size: 1,003 square miles • Employees: 24,576 • Student Demographics: ▪ Ethnicity: 44% H ▪ Race: 64% W, 27% B, 9% O ▪ Free and Reduced Lunch: 75% • Transportation: Approx. 70,000 student bus riders per day Who is OCPS? The In Between OCSD 38 WEHERE!ARE
Incoming New Students 36%27%37% Incoming 2021-22 Other Country Other FL District Other State
New Student Immigration 27% 36% 37% 2021-22 OtherCountryOtherFL District Other State
New Students from Other States 27% 36% 37% 2021-22 OtherDistrictOtherCountryOtherFLState
New Students from Other Florida Districts 27% 36% 37% 2021-22 OtherDistrictOtherCountryOtherFLState
Exiting Population: 2019 to 2020 IRS Migration Data 1% 69% 30% 2019 to 2020 Outgoing Individuals Other Country Other FL District Other State
Exiting Population from Orange County: 2019 to 2020 1% 69% 30% 2019 to 2020IndividualsOutgoing CountryOther Other FL OtherDistrictState Source: IRS Migration Data
Horizon HS 2021
Westpointe ES 2017
Keene's Crossing ES 2009
Laureate Park ES 2017
School Type Year Open
Panther Lake ES 2022
Village Park ES 2021
Lake Como School K8 2018
Vista Pointe ES 2020
Innovation MS 2017
Bay Lake ES 2016
Wedgefield School K8 2016
Stonewyck ES 2022
Eagle Creek ES 2015
Horizon West MS 2019
East River HS 2009
Lake Nona MS 2009
Timber Lakes ES 2008
Westbrooke ES 2008
Sun Blaze ES 2013
Windermere HS 2017
Millennia Gardens ES 2016
Hamlin MS 2022
Summerlake ES 2020
Sunshine ES 2020
Water Spring ES 2019
Pershing School K8 2019
Timber Springs MS 2017
SunRidge ES 2012
OCPS ACE K8 2017
Castleview ES 2019
Audubon Park School K8 2018
40 Relief Schools in 15 Years
Forsyth Woods ES 2011
Lake Buena Vista HS 2021
Kelly Park School K8 2022
Water Spring MS 2021
Hamlin ES 2022
Independence ES 2015
SunRidge MS 2012
Wetherbee ES 2011
Lake Nona HS 2009
East Orange • Vista Park • Meridian Park • Storey Park • Camino Reale • Sunbridge II Southeast Orange • Lake Nona South • Laureate Park • Eagle Creek • Boggy Creek Rd Horizon West • Village I • Hamlin West • Silverleaf North Orange • The Ridge • Kelly Park Crossing • Foothills of Mt. Dora • Floridian Town Center • Emerson Park • Avian Pointe WEHERE!ARE
Horizon West Growing Areas
Presentation Title 47 2008 2015 2022
SE Orange County (Lake Nona) Growing Areas Presentation Title 48 2008 2015 2022
DEVELOPMENTINVENTORY STATUS Planned Platting Underway ArcGIS Online Webmap Demographics.OCPS.net
Development Inventory Database
Walt Disney World
6000400020000 1400012000100008000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Single Family Multi-Family Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database, HUD Annual Building Permits Issued for New Residential Development
OCPS Enrollment/Projections 220,000210,000200,000190,000180,000170,000160,000 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23 2024-25 2026-27 2028-29 2030-31 2032-33 Projections
Family Empowerment Scholarships (FES-EO)
53 Advance Planning Budget Facilities Planning & Real Estate Facilities ServicesStudent Enrollment 10 Year List of Schools Capital Plan (CIP) Planning New Schools
2022-23 Long Range Plan
Senate Bill 2524
Funding Challenges
• School Infrastructure is VERY EXPENSIVE • And High Operating Costs Significant Investment Presentation Title 57 Other*, 5% Schools, 25% Parks, 10% Public Transportation, 60% *Other = Fire/EMS, Correctional, Law Enforcement, Public Bldgs, Solid Waste, Libraries 70-85%
School Capital Projects • Capital Millage • State Funding (limited and decreasing) • School Capital Outlay Surtax (0.5%) • Impact Fees • Proportionate Share
Primary Funding Sources
Presentation Title 58
MAINTENANCE/DEBT COST VS. AVAILABLE REVENUES (2018-2032) Hillsborough County Public Schools Presentation Title 59 Category 2017 LRP Maintenance Needs $2.51 B Debt Service Payments $1.01 B Total Cost $3.52 B Available Revenue: Capital Millage $1.85 B Community Investment Tax $0.47 B Total Revenue $2.32 B Shortfall -$1.20 B
• New Capacity Needs vs. Available Funding (2018-2032) Hillsborough County Public Schools Presentation Title 60 Category Minimum Probable New School Capacity Cost $0.77 B $1.18 B Portables $0.23 B $0.03 B Total Cost $1.00 B $1.21 B Impact Fees at Current Rate $0.57 B Shortfall -$0.43 B -$0.64 B Impact Fees at Increased Rate $0.89 B Shortfall -$0.11 B -$0.32 B Potential School Capital Surtax $1.89 B
Gadsden
Pinellas Sumter Highlands LibertySuwannee Osceola Manatee Palm Beach Broward Indian River Gilchrist Bay Hardee
Holmes Okaloosa Brevard Monroe Polk Hamilton St. Lucie Walton Calhoun
Wakulla Columbia Putnam Jackson Martin Levy Santa Rosa Duval Glades TaylorClay
School Capital Outlay Surtax
Franklin Orange
Leon Washington Nassau Madison Collier Lake Okeechobee DeSoto St. Johns Baker Alachua Sarasota Hendry
Miami Dade Volusia Lafayette Charlotte Seminole Hillsborough Jefferson Gulf Hernando Flagler Bradford Union Dixie
61
Lee Marion Pasco Citrus
Escambia = 0.5% levy (26) = Eligible to levy, but have not (41) Source: 2021 Local Government Financial Information Handbook; Rates as of Nov. 2021
• School Infrastructure Surtax passed in 2018 • Effective from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2028 • School impact fees were increased to from $4,000 to $8,227 per dwelling unit • Residential unit 1,800-2,499 sq ft • Effective since June 2020
Hillsborough County Public Schools
Presentation Title 62
2020 LRP Update • Surtax revenues fund maintenance backlog • Capital millage revenues pay debt service
Presentation Title 63
Hillsborough County Public Schools
Update
•
•
Funding Needs = $886 million • Impact fees able to fund 73% of needs
School impact fees were estimated to generate $65 million per year • Years 1-10: • Estimated Impact Fee Revenues = $650 million
2020 LRP
Presentation Title 64
Hillsborough County Public Schools
• (3,400 stations): million
2020
• (2,910 stations): million
•
2020 LRP Update
2022
50%
50%
$165
• increase in cost after adjusting for the number of stations
$96
High school cost:
Impact
Hillsborough County Public Schools
Presentation Title 65
• fees funding reduced to of needs
Questions?
