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ds in the cost of floo solely economic ed ment be explain The rising in tes cannot Develop United Sta inflation or growth d ing and floo ary g net gin ma by mo How should we allocate public resources of Plann a ct tions. Da way id ula pa the or pop l by Im ced coasta for revitalizing low-income urban neighe in Fl ing the also influen sically develops Damag phy events are Examin over, borhoods? Once public investments in ns for and roperty where nshu Gr society pla ies, influencing an area reach some minimum threshold, ns on P lal, Hima io es are nit he is fac ag mu ec sur M D its com vious do they leverage substantial private res, Praveen cal an and imper ogi hr res rol Za ctu hyd stru ources? To address these questions, we mmy ted and how analyze 383 Brody, Sa concentra examine a coordinated, sustained, and Samuel D. E. Highfield rida altered. We Flo are s in tem sys events targeted revitalization strategy begun in d Wesley 1 to ane flood an 200 rric hu and non 1998 in Richmond, VA. The strategy 1997 and their between ns es isio nti dec cou was developed through a data-driven, affect planning ent how nm late iro iso env participatory planning process that ds. Our the built floo on by cts effe , garnered support. Our lly caused pertywidespread damage of natura pro ty ion per the rat pro alte analysesdreveal that the program proses threat to gest that st ly increa sug ate ant s Unitesubstantially greater appreciation ult ific gre the duced res sign the all wetlands unities in ods pose by floods, flo sed mm lions of values of single-family co cau ds, occurring human al hazar in the bilin the market ty damage methods of d tur g ral na ate ; ctu ein im all 00 the proper stru 20 the targeted areas than in mong c well-b nageods is est Also, non SFPM],homes in ergency Ma d economi impact from flo else equal. comparable anagers [A Losses homes in similarly distressed c Federal Em ity Rating safety, an odplain M zard Events andneighborhoods. such as the e economi r The greatest impacts mmun State Flo ency’s Co floods pe States. Th xpensive Spatial Ha e number of occurred ciation of ment Ag viding ine when odspublic investments over from the rag ally (Asso 44 flo while pro ta nu ave ty damage da 2,4 an per the to to rs System, s pro S), 60 5 years exceeded dolla rding sed $21,000 per block, on reducing encourage (SHELDU r in the 19 96). Acco means of floods cau indirectly Thisrty appears to make the strategy as.

Pielke, 19 the United States 394 floods per yea t in the 1960s average. may also ardous are pe haz pro directly, m for tha in al fro potentially self-financing over a 20-year e annu elopment Database also show rag six-fold, ta ave sed da more dev s, S 60 rea 90 19 with public contributions offset DU inc horizon, ail year (in By the 19 s. SHEL year has a y@archm r.

90 rs rod yea 19 lla (sb a by future increments in property tax or of in the Brody damage million do of rs .12 per year Samuel D. an associate profess partlla 78 revenues from t betarget areas. is llion do De sed to $3 ge may no .tamu.edu) al planning in the $41.69 mi flooding increa nual rty dama ent ure and m ses in an (George_Galster@ ed prope environm Architect rdamage fro George Galster flood-relat n by increa Landscape xas A&M Unive might ment of Te that rising ion growth or eve g costs Wayne.edu) of floods is the Clarence Hilberry dollars). vironnning at position lat sin depu pro of the En y rea r Urban Pla po or ntl ou inc ect or ue Re of Urban Affairs in the DepartIt is seq is the dir inflation se factors, n for and subProfessor tainability for by the Sus ining and Urban Planning, sity. He d to rta ne and r lai ment Geography nning Cente ionsofpe addition cis mans pla fully exp mental Pla co-director of the e to -based de WaynedeState itation. In nner in which hu a faculty it, the gre University. He has published mmunity an precip d ma co me search Un s and Shores, and an d , the an cov ted ng over 100 scholarly asi articles. His latest (coche n & Re iven by dividual distribu ses. Incre Texas Bea Hazard Reductio also be dr unities. In ous surfaces are book hran@ the bating losauthored) ties,is Why NOT in My Back ivi ir comm rvi fellow in Zahran (sza m act y be exacer d touris velop the ildings and impe Yard?: Neighbourhood - Impacts of Deconr. Sammy an assistant profesaltered, ma ial, an of hydro bu ery Cente is Housing gy at capacity Assisted pe , (Center for state.edu) to where systems are idential, commerc shed the centrating pro rty2003). Peter A. lamar.colo partment of Sociolo n ological e ini dr res vat hy th dim De vee ult, priPolicy Research, which ociated wi -lying areas, has a resUrban sor in the ass As iversity. Pra ) is an reasingly . nt Un off inc te (PTatian@ui.urban.org) is a senior Sta om ities are developme in coastal and low surface water run communTatian ti Colorado l@gmail.c ile ela of M agh ent n, re researchDe associate in the Urban Institute’s ly al (pm partm s by sig Maghelal g of coast turally sto particular ter in the De a we na ein or sas rid w to ll-b s Di fess Flo ho and CommuniMetropolitan Housing at pro tem c we book ult from assistant Planning logical sys and the economi gh of interest over nts. In his but largely Regional ouareas tiesres Policy Center. nshu Gr sis thrHis oding eve Urban and en, the holds, flo l y. Hima pp use of tra rsit ha al ho ks ive cen tor policy, neighborhood ris Un not simply aim to test this includeenhousing Atlantic du) is a doc le to the onment asters do ug@tamu.e istant in the En vulnerab We built virparticipatory research, and c indicators, (himansh ass tes that dis n communities. s of specifi community-building methods. John research tainability (1999) sta ma the effect student and Planning and Sus nd build hu ll isolate en co al Landscape Accordino AICP (jaccordi@vcu.edu), design an vironment it, Department of del that wi . ue have be ltiple iss mo s at ve thi Un ati coordinates master of urban and ing forthemu damage dressing Research ban Plann a quantit ollingplanning s on flood studies ad , while contr od in the Wilder ure and Ur y. Wesley E. regional dual floprogram Architect les aracteristic importance, few ivi iversit ch sca a ind l Un is 3 ) tia M School of Government and Public Affairs 38 its Texas A& ghfield@tamu.com istant in an effort er large spa les. We examine at Virginia Despite (hi d 2001Commonwealth inally, ov earch ass Highfield the built University in longitud ioeconomic variab between 1997 an of ate and res d es did cte and tur can research and teaching du Richmond, VA. His a nning doctoral y ultant fea and soc in Florid maplanning ent ental Pla res s s cal tm d nm tie ysi ion par an viro s un ph cis De focus on community practice, de bio al co cision in the En ch Unit, e. Theseeconomic thin coast nning de of public planning lity Resear Urban es development els over tim urban events wi derstand how pla Sustainabi ecture and ying degre y. ape Archit un damage lev and have var and finance, and commercial district Universit of Landsc to better nce flood ents xas A&M ue nm Te infl at ver revitalization. nt Planning onme local go

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Association, an Planning the Americ 7 Journal of mer 200 , IL. Chicago No. 3, Sum Vol. 73, Association, an Planning eric Am ©

or envir eral, state, involve fed

Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 72, No. 4, Autumn 2006. © American Planning Association, Chicago, IL.

457

Targeting Investments for Neighborhood Revitalization

Plannin g Styles

C

A

Aging Baby Boomers and the Ge nerational Housing Bu bble

Journal

of the Am course, if this change in the trend also occurred in Vol control neighborhoods after erican Plan . , ning

No. , Spr Association, ing . © Americ an Planning Association, Chicago , IL.

Foresight Dowell Myers

nes et al. however llaborative , tha , ), tha e anticipated, based t tral focus. t there was not en dialogue among the key pla genuine regionalAccording ou yers. It tur processes ly, we shi gh collaboration , an ne fte go insight he d we began to see d to looking at the ing on for this to d out, lpe be a centhe player whole set or lack the d us to make sen s as opera of public se of the ting in dif reof. The decision story, the ferent sty Gruber, full story conflicts, ). les. This has been and the ag told in a The purpo -page reements se of thi monogra played ou ph (Inne t in the M s article is to exp s& lore these TC proces styles an s. We be d gin with a brief sum show how they mary of and Mitigati MTC’s wa y on of an

and SungHo

Epic Transit

ion

Ryu

Problem: The 78 million baby have driven up boomers housing dem and and price he giant baby for three deca s des since begi boo nning to buy homes in 1970 a dominant forc m generation born between and continuin 1946 and 196 e in the housing g up the hous ing ladder. Wha 4 has been always provide market for dec t will happen d the largest ades. This when boomers begin to sell demand as it age cohorts, off their high pass and has created group has ed through each -priced relatively smal into home buy a surge in ler and less-adva homes to stag e of the ing in the 197 life cycle. As ntaged generations? its members 0s, gentrificati starter homes entered on in cities and in suburbs incr Purpose: This construction eased. Their was accompanie article presents subsequent mar of projection of a long-run d by rising earn annual home ch into middle housing. Loo ings and larg buying and selling by age age king ahead to er expenditur groups in the the coming dec es and eventual 50 states and considers imp ade, the boomer for move-up ly withdraw lications for from the hou communities s will retire, relo the anticipate of so many of of sing d downturn mar cate, thes ket. e changes hap in demand.

Given the pot should conside Methods: We pen ing enti in al a effe lim propose a meth cts r how best to ited period of od for estimating aver plan this tran time, commu Communities age annual agesition. nities in the United specific buying and sellin dec Stat ade g rates, weightin es face an hist s of stability, by populatio g these we expect the oric tipping poin n projections grow abruptly ratio of seniors t. After to identify state whose growing , increasing by to s wor proportions kin roughly 30% g-age residen We also expect of seniors may cause an exce ts to in each that this change ss of home sellin than there are will make man of the next two decades. g sooner than others. We also buyers for them y more homes analyze the likel responses to ownership cou . The exit of available for diminished dem y supplier the baby boo ld have effects and, and recommend mers from hom sale as significant consequences. strategies for eas their entry, local planners Results and though with . conclusions different : Sellers of existing hom es provide 85% of the annual supply of hom es sold, and hom e sales are driven by the seve aging of the ral longstanding population since trends, leading seniors are net to exceed gent decline home sellers. rification, dem The ratio of in the School seniors to work and for lowdensity hous of Policy, Plan ing-age resid ing to diminish ning, and ents will incre Developmen by 67% over , and new ase emphasis on t at the Univ the next two compact deve ersity of Sout decades; thus California. He anticipate the lopment. Such hern we developments is the author end of a gene call planners of Immigrants rational hous and Boomers: bubble. We also to und ing new Forg ertak activ ing a New Socia find that youn e ities, including for the Future ger generations face an l Contract actively mark to retain elde of affordability Ame eting rica (Russell rly residents barrier created Foundation, the recent hous Sage and cultivatin by new immigran 2007 ing price boom ). SungHo Ryu g t residents to @usc.edu) is . With proper foresight, plan (sungryu replace them an associate plan ners could miti Keywords: . ner with the baby boomers, gate what Southern Cali otherwise coul aging, housing fornia Associati d be significa bubble nt consequences on of Governments and of these proj ections. also a doctoral Research sup candidate in the School of Takeaway port: The Fann Poli cy, for practic Planning, and Foundation. ie Mae Developmen e: The retireme of the baby boom t. nt ers could sign About the auth al the end of the postwar era ors: for planning Dowell Mye Journal of the , and reverse American Plann rs (dowell@usc.e ing Association Vol. 74, No. du) is a professor of urba , 1, Winter 2008 n planning and DOI 10.1080/01 demography 944360701802 006 ©

T

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in Confl ict

In a -year study of the San Fra Bay Area Me ncisco Commissi tropolitan Transp ort on, we fou nd four pla ation styles at The Met work: tec hnical/bure nning ropolitan political aucratic, influence, Transpor social mo collabora vement, tive. Eac tation Co Judith E. and h involved assumpti Innes an mmission differing ons d Judith pation, and about knowledge Gruber , particithe nature Players usi of a good ng one sty plan. trustfu an strategic investments of limited public resources trigger the revitalizal or contem le were often mi sptuous of in others those wo tion of distressed, low-income urban neighborhoods? If so, how should . Re rking to packag gional actions—as es ofinpro opposed we allocate resources spatially to leverage the most private investment jects for interests— parochial were rare. these neighborhoods? For decades these questions have sparked debate among initiative The few s emerged regional planners, local officials, scholars, and advocates (e.g., Bright, 2000; Downs, plann ing and soc from collaborative ial movem that wh 1981; Grogan & Proscio, 2000; Keating, 1990; Keating, Krumholz, &ere Star, ents. We diversity argue and interd of int erests are 1996; Lemann, 1994; Marquez, 1993; Pierce & Steinbach, 1987; Rubin, 1994; ependenc high, col e most effe laboratio fter a -y ctive app Stoecker, 1997). n is the ear study roach. Ke collabora of transpo y barrier Area, we tionquesRemarkably little reliable evidence has been brought to bearfunon these inc s to rta have conc ding formu luded state and luded tha tion planning in federal process wa las, tions, due to the methodological challenges of identifying and sub measuring the t the conte stantial docthe earmarking, and s due in nin g and no great part the ntiousness San Francisco Ba um entation state and influences other than the intervention on neighborhood trajectories (Bartik, 1992; t solely to y required we obser federal reg dif disagreeme to differences in ferent ass by um Baum, 2001; Bloom & Glispie, 1999; Erickson & Friedman, 1989; Fulbright-ulations. participan ved in the nts pti ov ons abou er desired plan is lik ts’ styles Judith Inn t inform ou e, as well tco Anderson, Kubisch, & Connell, 1998; Galster, Temkin, Walker, & Sawyer, es is a pro me ation, pu s. Each sty of planas about to believe fessor in ment of blic parti the le Cit the Depar de inv pro y and Re ep 2004; James, 1991; Mueller, 1995; Rossi, 1999; Taub, 1990;theWeiss, 1972, cipation, olved ly in their cess of pla tgional Pla those pra Universit and what appro nning nning at cticing dif y of Califo a good 1998). Two approaches have dominated the literature. The She post-intervention, rnia, Ber ferent sty ach and to regard . Practitioners of label techn is author keley. of Know eac les. We ide wi ical/bure absolute-change approach examines neighborhood changes after some revitalizaPolicy: ledge aucratic, The Sea ntified fou th suspicion, if no h tended Each sty rch for Me and Public political le tended t hostility r coexisti catinitiative. ors (Trans Thus tion initiative has occurred; change is attributed solely to the theaningful Ind infl to ng , ue wa be act nce sty s not exp ion Publis iassociated , social mo les tor of Lan hing,  lic counterfactual is assumed to be no change (see, e.g., Blank,edi 2000; Grogan & with differ vement, an , which we ) and players, wh it in discussion ent types United Sta d Use Policy Debat d collabora . The po ereas the e in the tes (Plenu Proscio, 2000; Morley, 1998; Proscio, 2002; Walsh, 1997).

The post-intervenof outco tive. litical pla ciated wi co m, ), co-author mes, tho nners div as well as th strategie llaborative and (with Jud ug h tion, relative-change approach compares neighborhood changes observed during this ided ith Grube the social Area Tra s designe These fin nsportatio r) of Bay movemen resources among d to bene dings em n Decisi the period in which an intervention is reputedly having an theimpact t pla fit the reg Wake of to coincident Francisco ISTEA: Pla on Making in ion as a wh nners were ass Bay Area’ erged from an inConfli changes in control neighborhoods. Here the counterfactual is ctassumed the ong Styles ole. s at the Me to benni depth int late  74-1 in tropolitan to early  Metropolitan Tr erpretive 280249 Mye so only relative tion advantages Commissi change observed in control03 neighborhoods, of the Transport rs P 1/1 an stu  spo po on dy ses (In arta (Univers 3/08 8:0 of the Sa . The fir nes & Gr tio nsport 3 atio ity of Ca PM ofPag n intervention over the control neighborhoods are taken asTraevidence impact uber, )  n Commission e lifo Metropoli st was to see ho Gruber ret n Center,17 (MTC) fro . Th ). Jud rnia w this ag tan Plann ired2002; ith m (see, e.g., Mueller, 1995; Smith, 2003; Taub, 1988, 1990; in Vidal, ency, wide e study had tw ing Orga ing the In DeparTaylor, as chair of o ori tment of ly nizations termoda the Political Howitt, & Foster, 1986; Weiss, 1972; Zielenbach, 2003).

Universit l Surface (MPOs)  regarded as one of ginal purpath-bre Science at y of Califo Tr in ak the the an ing the spo leading rnia, Ber federal leg country, rtation Ef The main shortcoming of these approaches is thatiseither may author counterfactual ity, increa keley. She of Contr wa isla fic s tio im ien olli se n ple cy ng Bu emmas in be seriously misleading. For example, if the designatedDilneighborhood was declinreaucraci problems participation in de designed to provid Act of  (ISTE mentDemocra es: (Univers . Our sec tic Gover A), the ityneighborhoods) ing rapidly (both absolutely and relative to other low-income nan ond purpo cisions, and allow e intermodal fun of Califo planning rnia Press, ce Coordina ding flexib more reg se was to group M ting Growcontinue ) and before a revitalization initiative, then even after intervention ional dis find the TC had sions tha th and En on Managem it may cretion to ildegree to set up, the t were reg vironment ent throug solve wh a downward trajectory. According to the conventional approaches this would Ba al ion ich h y Area Pa on findin (co-autho Consensu al rather the colla s Building red, Califo gs rtn tha bo fro ers n rative pa m hip roc rni signal that there had been no programmatic impact even our earlie , was pro a Policy ). if the rate of decline ism would Seminar, r research hial in perspective  17 ducing de require co ci. W (In had slowed; thus this potentially positive outcome would be overlooked. Of

George Galster, Peter Tatian, and John Accordino

, Chicago, IL.

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