The Perils of Being a Visionary
October 25, 2012
Audience Participation I
• Raise your hand if you have heard of a Segway Personal Transporter • Raise your hands if you have used a Segway
1
The Future Of Transportation: In 2001 Segway PT “Personal Transporter” • Invented by Dean Kamen • Introduced in December 2001 Insiders predicted that the Segway would: • Revolutionize urban transportation and design • Reduce overdependence on oil • Have a more profound impact on humankind than the development of the personal computer
Sources Photo: Time Specials, “The 50 Worst Inventions” (http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1991915_1991909_1991902,00.html) Quotes: The Guardian (http://m.guardiannews.com/ms/p/gnm/us/view.m?id=15&gid=/world/2001/dec/04/engineering.highereducation)
2
The Future Of Transportation: Reality
2001
2002
2003
2004
2009
Today
•Introduced
•Trouble with local laws on usage (sidewalk vs. roadway)
•Recalled all scooters (6,000 total)
•Losing money; all original funds have been depleted
•Acquired by U.K. businessman, James Heselden
•Low adoption
• Segway currently exists as a novelty • Primary uses include tourist attractions and use by local police and other mobile security forces Sources Timeline: Wall Street Journal Technology Blog , “Digits” (http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2010/09/27/from-hype-to-disaster-segways-timeline/)
3
Audience Participation II
• Raise your hand if you have heard of the internet
• Keep your hand in the air if you have used the internet in the past year
4
The Future Of The Internet: In 1995
“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” Robert Metcalfe • • •
1995 InfoWorld column Founder of 3Com Co-inventor of Ethernet Technology
Sources Photo: Computer History Museum (http://www.computerhistory.org/fellowawards/hall/bios/Bob,Metcalfe/) Quote: Scientific American (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=pogue-all-time-worst-tech-predictions)
5
The Future Of The Internet: Reality The Internet has survived without a major collapse, and has seen the number of users worldwide increase 358% in the last 10 years
Source Chart: International Telecommunications Union [ITU] (http://www.itu.int/ict/statistics)
6
So What Does This Mean? Was the 80% direct channel share prediction wrong?
8 Source Photo: Tech Hive (http://www.techhive.com/article/244601/geeky_magic_8_ball_serves_up_fortunes_still_gives_vague_answers.html)
7
Why Haven’t We Reached 80% Yet?
Mergers Bankruptcies 9/11
Financial Crisis/ Transformation
GOAL: Sustained Profitability Self-reliance Manage The Business Invest In The product
8
So What Does This Mean? Airlines want to solve two financial challenges
Transparency and consumer options Direct channel sales are cheaper than third party sales 9
Delta Is Looking To Differentiate Customer has the option to login and be recognized
Economy, First/Business and Basic Economy options are presented
Search can be customized
Customers are able to see aircraft amenities
10
Is 60% Attainable? It is aggressive, but attainable – Is it necessary? If third party channels can…
Third Party
Direct Sales
– Evolve – Innovate – Be flexible – Be cost-effective – Deliver value to customer and supplier …they have the potential to thrive
11
4 D’s Of Delta’s Distribution Strategy Do no harm
Deepen customer engagement
De-commoditize
Differentiate
Do not disrupt back office functions you rely on; do not negatively affect managed travel programs
Invest in, and provide, a superior customer experience – better recognition of the customer during the shopping experience Develop and implement new, innovative technology that enables a shift from “commodity” minded distribution to more customized “merchandising” Across all channels, enable the consumer to quickly and easily recognize the product and service value provided by Delta 12
Thank You!
13